DeProgram with John Kiriakou and Ted Rall - Blue Dot Makes a Point | DeProgram with Ted Rall and Jamarl Thomas

Episode Date: May 14, 2026

Conflict reporter/writer/cartoonist Ted Rall and political analyst Jamarl Thomas deprogram you from mainstream media every weekday at 9 AM EST. Today we discuss:• Backed by $5.6 million in outside money, Corporatist Denise Powell has narrowly defeated progressive State Sen. John Cavanaugh to win the Democratic primary in the race for Nebraska's second congressional district. Powell will go on to face Brinker Harding who is endorsed by Trump. The race for the state's second congressional district could help decide which party controls the narrowly divided U.S. House after this year's midterm elections. The district, which includes Omaha, is known as the "blue dot" because it was the lone Nebraska district to vote for Kamala in 2024 and Biden in 2020. It is currently represented by Republican Don Bacon, who is retiring.• The South Carolina Supreme Court has unanimously ruled to overturn the 2023 double murder conviction of disgraced attorney Alex Murdaugh, saying the jury tampering actions of former Colleton County Court Clerk Rebecca “Becky” Hill denied “Murdaugh his right to a fair trial by an impartial jury.” Murdaugh’s case will now return to circuit court. He is accused of killing his wife, Maggie, and younger son Paul at the Murdaugh rural estate in Colleton County on the evening of June 7, 2021.• JPMorgan warns that oil prices may hit $150 per barrel by June 15th, the time available to reach a diplomatic resolution is narrowing, and the economic consequences of delay are compounding in ways that are not yet fully visible in either securities markets or inflation data. Global supply disruptions reached 13.7 million barrels per day in April 2026, roughly 14% of total world demand. Spare capacity from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is effectively offline due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. 75 percent of Americans say the war has had a negative effect on their finances.MERCH STORE: https://www.deprogram.livehttps://x.com/tedrallhttps://x.com/JamarlThomasLIVE ON RUMBLE: https://rumble.com/c/DeProgramShowSPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/2kdFlw2w8sSPhKI8NRx8ZuAPPLE MUSIC: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/deprogram-with-ted-rall-and-jamarl-thomas/id1825379504

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LG appliances, so much more. Make life easier with LG. See the latest models and savings now at LG.com. Hi, I'm Alicia. And I'm Stacey. And we make trashy divorces, everybody's favorite good podcast about bad relationships. Looking for something true-crimey without the gore or the body count? We've been shurning out funny, fight,

Feminist episode since 2019. So if you're looking to put some scandalous stories told well into your ears this summer, check out trashy divorces wherever you listen to podcasts. Trust us. We've covered someone you love or someone you love to hate. Good morning. It is Thursday, May 14th, 2026. Thanks for tuning in to D-Program with Ted Rall and Jamarle Thomas.

Good morning, J-T. How are you? Do well, Jay-O-J-J-J-T. What's going on, man? How are you doing this morning? I'm pretty good. How are you? You're a little blurry. I hope that's not me hungover.

But I don't know, maybe you have like... I am doing fine. I am doing fine. You might have some schmuth on your camera or something. I'm blurry. Okay, hold on. Yeah, I don't know about that. Anyway, I will bring us in and tee us up and all that stuff.

I'll take a quick look and see if there's any ads to start out. And no, there are not. JT's rebooting. Oh, that's better. Yeah. Okay. Thank you. Okay, much better.

All right. So, anyway, thanks for joining us. Thank you. Doing good, doing good. Just reminding everyone to like, follow, and share the show. We will be here, as usual, 9 a.m. Eastern Time. We're here Monday through Friday. We go all the way until the 10 o'clock hour.

If you're watching live right now on YouTube or Rumble, please put your comments and questions into the live chats. if you are hoping that we respond to them. And then if you do, producer Robbie, we'll put those up and we will look at them and we will get to all of them if we can. Priority always goes to super chats and to Rumble Rants because those are the paying customers.

But we love you all. Good morning to all of you. I think we should just launch in. There's, oh, joining us at 9.30 to discuss the latest economic news, particularly this J.P. Morgan's story is a friend of the show, Achilles Larea, of Lorea wealth management, and he'll be talking about J.P. Morgan's warning that oil will probably hit $150 a barrel by June 15th, and that the time available to reach a diplomatic solution between Iran, Israel, and the United States and the reopening of the Strait of Armoos is narrowing to the point where things might get achieved

irretrivial, become irreversible and irretrievable by a month from now. They, J.P. Morgan analysts warn that the consequences of the war are not yet visible in the securities markets or in the inflation data, but that the results are already pretty significant. Global oil supply is down 14%, which is very serious. and it's only going to get worse. 75% of Americans say the war has hurt them financially, even if the president says he doesn't. When you buy LG, you get so much more than just an appliance.

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Make life easier with LG. See the latest models and savings now at LG.com. I don't care about that. We will talk to him about that at that point, and I think we should hold off on that conversation until then. The Blue Dot District is the latest place where we're looking at congressional races for some kind of sign as to what the midterms portend for the Democrats and the Republicans, backed by $5.6 million in outside money. Denise Powell, who's a local political activist there in Nebraska,

has narrowly defeated progressive state senator John Kavanaugh. She will be the Democratic nominee in the second congressional district called the blue dot. It's the only Democratic district in the state of Nebraska. And it's really crucial because based on some electoral college maps, this could actually determine the result of the 2008 presidential election. And we can explain all that. So it's a weird story. Anyway, shall we start with that? Sure.

Okay. Okay. Okay, so the reason that, so basically, as everyone knows, the electoral college is winner take all in most states, right? Like if you get, you know, if you get the, if you get 50.1% of the vote in, say, New York State, all of New York's electoral votes, college votes go to that to you. That's not true in certain states, and Nebraska is one of them, where they award them proportionally pro rata. So let's say there's one congressional district that represents 10% of the vote, and you only get 10% of the vote, but you will get that one electoral college vote. And there's some maps that get you to 270 where, and we've seen this before in previous races, where, you know, it might come down to a 269 to 269 kind of scenario that could ultimately, under certain circumstances, lead to a vote. the House of Representatives rather than, you know, going by the Electoral College vote.

Nebraska's blue dot is in, you know, it's not super likely, but there are scenarios in which it could make a difference. The National Democratic Party poured, as I said, over $5 million into this primary race. They were backing Denise Powell. She's more of a corporatist there in Omaha to defeat the more progressive candidate, John Kavanaugh, who was supported by, you know, people like AOC and the House Progressive Caucus. So basically, and by the way, the person who's currently holding that seat is a Republican, Don Bacon, who is retiring. But even though it's a Democratic district, I don't know exactly how that happened. I don't claim to be an expert on Nebraska politics. But anyway, it's a, you know, you.

know, I thought it was interesting that this is the DNC up to their old tricks, J.T. Right? I mean, they're like, they think that this is a super important race. And therefore, rather than just let the people of Omaha and the surrounding suburbs make a decision on their own, they decided to pour in all this outside money in order to make sure the progressive doesn't win. You know, basically, they don't seem to buy the possibility that the progressive might have had an equal or even perhaps better chance of defeating the Republican there in Nebraska. I think it seems like they haven't learned their lesson at all.

I don't think they care if that makes sense. I don't think it's about what they think that progressive can win. It's maintaining their brain trust in regards to we prefer a corporatist, period. And if we can't win with the corporatists, we would accept failing to the Republican. I think it's that. I think it's that in general. I don't think it's big meaning whether or not, like for example, it was clear. I give me an example.

In New York, New York is a really good example. My mom, Donnie, perfect example, right? He catches fire. He is obviously the better choice, meaning in the sense of this is the best of public. We know it was the better choice. Yeah. But they did everything in their power to prevent it from winning. And this is including Adams, this is including back in Cuomo, a man who couldn't keep his

sense. himself and killed all those grandmas during COVID. Like meaning they did any and everything in about it to prevent Mom Dani from taking that office despite the fact that mom Dani was obviously the choice at the public at that point. I'm saying from their point of view, I don't think it matters to them whether or not. Even if they thought the progressive obviously has a better chance of winning, even if there was, I don't know, polling, even if there was something to indicate that the person had a better chance of beating the Republic.

We've been down that road. I mean, I don't think it matters. I mean, 2016 showed that with Bernie. Yeah, I don't think it matters to them. I remember distinctly when ALC won and ALC was like, we need the primary some folks. And the Democratic Party freaked out. And they were implementing laws in the D-TCCC,

the D-TCCC and the DSCCC, effectively saying, if you are working to undermine or get rid of a Democrat, that we will blacklist you from any sort of, let's say, money, revenue, any of those things that helps a particular candidate get elected. That was a policy. Now, that policy, of course, didn't matter. Part of what got David Hogg, the survivor of the mass shooting in Florida, thrown out of the DNC. Which was outrageous. Which was outrageous. I mean, it was outrageous. I mean, they basically changed rules to get rid of him. And that's kind of, I guess, the point that I'm making. When it was was the other way around where I forget the name of the congressman that was running for the

Senate that was trying to depose a progressive. There was no issue with it. Meaning they move in a particular direction constantly. I even remember when, do you remember this when they, when a guy was running, the Democratic Party had their choice of who they wanted. They had a conversation with the guy effectively telling him, Steny Hoyer, to get out the race. He recorded the conversation again like without them knowing it and hoarie it was very clear like look we have our choice we chose this particular person we want this person went in this particular district and we want you to take a walk and then nance fellows was outraged that he recorded the conversation of them effectively couldn't screws to a guy who wanted to run in that particular race that the democratic party didn't

effectively want to run i'm saying this is modest operandi they don't like you They don't agree with you. They're not in line with your policies. And they don't care that you could leave victory. Yeah, they don't care. They would rather lose as corporatists than win as progressives. Yes, which is rather amazing when you think about it. It's very, very, yeah, it is amazing.

Yeah, well, it's about control, right? First and foremost, it's not about winning. It's about control. Always remember that when you think about writing a donation check to the Democratic Party. that's what you're voting for, that's what you're financing. Okay, so we'll continue to watch that. I really wanted to spend a little bit of time. I don't know how interested you are in this.

I hope you are with this Alex Murdoch story. We broke us during yesterday's show, but now we know more about what happened. So basically the South Carolina Supreme Court ruled unanimously to overturn this very famous, not quite OJ-level famous true crime story out of South Carolina, but it reads like something straight out of... When you buy LG, you get so much more than just an appliance. You get more done, more cost savings, more peace of mind, and more control, because LG appliances are designed to do more, like washers and dryers with AI tech to take out

the guesswork, refrigerators that fit in tight spaces, and keep food fresher, longer, or ranges with precise induction cooking and easy cleanup built in, all with the style you want and reliability you can count on so you can get more from your home every day. LG appliances so much more. Make life easier with LG. See the latest models and savings now at LG.com. The John Grisham book, this disgraced, attorney Alex Murdoch who had been robbing his clients for years to the tune of millions of dollars. Fourth generation scion of a bunch of legal eagles down there, very rich family in South Carolina, like basically Southern royalty. He was accused of murdering his wife and his young

adult son. He pled guilty. He agreed. that he was an embezzler, but he has always fervently denied the double murder conviction. I remember the story. Yeah, I remember the story. It's a crazy story. And I mean, and the dude was

like definitely like an unlikable, despicable, like slobbering worm at trial. Right. That was his argument though. I may be a worm, but I'm not a killer if I remember it correctly. And people, like with the OJ case, people were really divided.

about what they thought about this. Now, obviously, I don't know what happened there, but I have to say I kind of believe, I more believe him than not. I guess it's like I'm 60-40 and thinking that he didn't really blow his son away. The wife, I was kind of like thinking, maybe he did, but, you know, I mean,

he's a lawyer. If he wants to get rid of her, he can get a divorce. He knows all about it, right? So, you know, but of course he may have done it. I don't know. But anyway, interestingly, it since came out that the former county clerk in that trial, Becky Hill, is now serving time for witness tampering. Basically, she put her thumb on the scale and basically talked shit about Murdoch inappropriately to the jury. And apparently, to the point where all the judges said, this is clearly witness tampering.

Even the lower court judge, the appellate division, before this went to the Supreme Court, agreed that witness tampering had happened, but had allowed the conviction to stand on the basis that the tampering, the error wasn't so serious that it made a difference. The Supreme Court of the state obviously agreed. So now, we're talking here about a murder, a pair of murders that happened on June 7, 2021. I would recommend people to go back and look at this, especially because we are going to have a retrial. And this is the part I really wanted to talk about. So the state tries the dude. They cheat. They send the dude to prison in part because, yes, the embezzlement, but let's face it, mostly why he's there with the double murder.

And now they're like, okay, well, we want another, we're going to have a retrial. I mean, to me, I hate that. Okay. Like, I feel like this is classic double jeopardy. We see it over and over again. I don't understand for one moment why this is considered okay. Why the fuck does the state of, or I guess in this case, why does the municipality there in the lower court in Colleton County, South Carolina.

Carolina. Why does Colleton County get another whack at Alex over this, over these, over these, over these, over these charges? The dude has already paid probably millions of dollars in legal fees to defend himself the first time around. He's been in prison. They cheated. They were caught. It had to go all the way through the court system over the course of years to have that adjudicated. Like, okay, I mean, I don't know if he did it or not, but that's neither here nor there. They cheated. He walks on this. Maybe he stays in prison for the embezzlement. I kind of think even given what they did, probably not. I think he walks. I mean, I'd say you fucked, it's kind of like in ancient Rome. If the executioner tried to cut your head off three wax and failed,

you got to leave. You'd like, you know, the state had its chance to kill you. It's like, now you go home. It's like, they had their chance. I say, let's say, the guy. So I think people need to realize the legal system is not about whether or not you did it or not. And it's not about justice. It's about what they can prove. And there are all sorts of legal processes that are built it to that process to make, let's say as a rule set, double jeopardy being one of those rule sets. So I'm trying to disambiguate this idea of, okay, well, the guy might have committed murder. He clearly was cheating his clients. Like that's unknown, you know, that's he was a third. Right. But the state shouldn't get this overwhelming advantage where they can, a trial person, cheat a person, the person exposes the fact that they were cheated.

And then they get another bite at the apple after cheating the guy, if that makes sense. Like, meaning whether he did. did it or not, it's almost a separate question from the legal maneuverings and mechanisms of state. Those are different things. I guess I'm saying, I agree with you. It becomes, it's very difficult for me. I don't like this idea of the state getting two bites at the apple, where, A, they go, because whether people realize it or not, the state gets more proficient in the second trial. They don't get weaker in the second trial, meaning they look at their mistakes. Typically, I mean, I'm a true crime fanatic, by the way.

I love interrogations. I am a sucker for interrogations. My ex-wife used to hate it because I used to sit there and just watch him over and over and over, over and over. I'm fascinated by that. I love true crime, too. Especially female killers. I love female killers. I don't know what it is.

It's something about the main dangerous. But my point is, the state is a psychological pattern, Jamar. It is a pattern, right? Kaya Kayla's Anna Leighamara These women are nuts. got the thing for the insane woman. You like crazy bitches. Yeah, that seems to be the case. That seems to be the case.

But my point is, I agree with you. I don't like the second bite at the apple thing. Whether he did it or not is secondary to the point. It's like the state is already in an overwhelming advantage. And the money that they can spend, the way they go after people, the money that the stuff typically has. In this case, as in many others, even though the guy was spectacularly wealthy, right? But he was cooling his heels in, as if memory serves, in the lockup while the case is being prepared.

So he's not in a good position to, you know, for example, like have an idea and then like, oh, my God, let me call my lawyer. And, like, you know, he doesn't have that ability to prepare for his case the way that the state does. Well, what, and it's always the case. I mean, like, if you have a good, like, you may have, let's say, for example, I mean, granted, this is not the exact same situation because this situation, the guy was rich. and he did have the capability defending himself. And as you pointed out, he was from royalty in the context of the legal system in South Carolina. But oftentimes you have defense, let's say, especially if it's court appointed, those people have no money fighting pretty much infinite resources. What applies to the rich, in this case for this guy, also applies to everybody else, meaning the state has overwhelming power to go after whoever they want to go after.

And the idea that they also get two bites of Apple seems to be a bit much to me. I understand the guy was the scumbagged. I understand that the guy cheated his clients. I get all that. True. But the state shouldn't get multiple bites of Apple to prove that. That part was already clear. That part was easy to prove.

The murder is the issue. And the fact, meaning, regardless of the financial crime, that's bad. But it's the murder that people care about. For my understanding, I mean, when I look at it, looked at this, it was the murder that everybody talked about. He acknowledged he was a scumbag. His thing was like, I'm not a killer. I didn't be murdered. Yeah, he was an

alcoholic, and I don't remember if he was a drug addict, too, but he was definitely like a drunk. He was a horrible person. Yeah, he was a mess. Yeah, but is he a murderer? Well, that's the question, and I don't know the answer to that question. Because the state,

the state fucked up. We got a comment from Matthew saying, wrong Ted, all caps. The clerk did this to write a book. She did it for personal gain. Alex is guilty as hell. Sorry, Bob. It doesn't matter what did she did for a personal game.

The question is they should do it. Yeah, why she did it is not important. The point is that she's a county clerk, and she shouldn't have done that, and the jury shouldn't have been fucked with. And, like, look, I think, you know, it's been, I'm now convinced that O.J. Simpson did it, right? But we also note that, you know, the LAPD and, Mark Furman, the detective in that case, were, you know, they fucked up the case. They tried, they basically did what cops always do. They were like, let's give Lady Justice a little kick in

the ass, right? So no question. Mark Furman found the pair of gloves, then went over to OJ's house, tossed one glove over the wall in order to create the pretext for justifiable to get, to have the right to search, looked over the wall, saw the glove, said, look, that's the glove that seems to match the other glove that I found all by itself at the crime scene, and then said, okay, this is how we're going to search the house and began the investigation. Did O.J. kill his wife and her friend? Yeah. Did, and if the state had played it straight and had done a better job explaining DNA evidence and not cheated with. you know, with Mark Furman, who was a racist, you know, if they hadn't fucked up by relying on

this unreliable racist witness who cheated, then O.J. Simpson would have been convicted. But they didn't. They couldn't help themselves. They had to cheat. It's what they always do. That was my experience with the LAPD as well. They're fucking cheaters. They're liars. And this is true about police departments and prosecutors all across the country. I still can't even believe that so many judges are former cops and former prosecutors shouldn't even be allowed. A judge, you shouldn't be able to be able to have that level of bias. A judge should be tied in that way. But anyway, it's, yeah, it's like, I mean, it's kind of like if the dude is really guilty, then all the more reason to be really careful about the prosecution and to play it straight.

So that a murderer is not walking free, right? Yeah, agree. Yeah, you got to let the system play out. I mean, like, it's stop messing with the, it's like, look, regardless of what people think of the guy, regardless of what they're the guy, and it's in the guilty. He gets this day in court, and he should have a fair day in court at that. And I mean, fair, because even in the context of fair, it is weighted against you. Like, meaning when you're talking to a cop,

nothing you say is going to help you. No, nothing you say is going to fuck up. You shut the fuck up. That's the only thing that's going to help you, right? They tell you in the beginning. And I don't think people fully get the gravity of what they are explaining to you.

Everything that you say will be used against you in a court of law. Everything. Whether you may think it's something minor that is not minor, you may think it's something insignificant that is not insignificant. That is not.

Or you may know you're innocent and you might be trying to talk your way out of it and just be like, if I just explain to them, seriously, dudes, I wasn't there. I didn't do it. And I can prove it. It's like Harrison Ford in, sorry, Tommy Lee Jones in the fugitive. It's like, I didn't kill my way. I don't care. That's because he's there to catch him. That's his job.

The cop's job isn't to find out the truth. The cop's job is to catch people and close files. Well, to get evidence. I don't think, look, I'm not cynical to believe that they want to get a person that's innocent. I don't think. Well, they're willing to in many cases. They're willing to. If the evidence points that way.

And also, there's a lot of pressure coming from upstairs saying, like, listen, the media's up our ass. You have to catch this guy. Yeah. Yeah. But at certain points, it's like, we can just sketch someone. But any interrogations, I think all things being able to get the right person, but they're human beings. They can fuck up with the best of them. And if evidence is going into a particular direction, let your lawyer explain it.

That's what they're there for. No question. And they mean, like cops will be like, well, hey, man, I'm just giving you the opportunity to explain. Hey man, we can explain. My lawyer can do that. I don't need to do that, right? Right. Look, it's not that I want workers to go free.

Let's be very clear. No. But I don't want them screwing with the process to discern whether or not a person is a murder. It's that. The state already has huge amounts of power. Honestly, there should be no retrial ever in any situation where you had to go through a trial. It's like if you walk on a technicality, you fucking walk. That's it.

And maybe if that happened, the state would follow the rules a little more judiciously, right? Probably not, but I would hope they would. Well, I mean, it might be an incentive. Okay, Greg, thanks Ted, Jamal, Robbie, for the D-programming, and thank you for the $10. Much appreciated. Maybe blue funk, thanks for the $5 donation, tin foil hat theory. Overturn Alex Murdoch is a way to raise the violence temperature in the U.S., same as they did with highlighting the video of Renee Good, normalized violence, racism, DV. I don't think in this case.

I think with Renee Good, I mean, certainly I agree generally. There's been sort of an approach by the media and by politicians to normalize violence, especially state violence. But I don't think this is that. Well, I think they normalize state violence. I don't know. Yeah, I don't buy it on this one. I think this is, I mean, I don't know if you remember the case here in Virginia.

You may not know this one. The Virginia governor. got caught, let's say, with his hand in the cookie jar. And he threw his wife under the bus in the process of trying to get out of jail. The Supreme Court, after years, let McDonald out on a technicality. I mean, Bill Cosby gets let out under technicality. People get led on technicalities. It doesn't necessarily mean that they're trying to, there's some kind of larger plot.

Yeah, totally. Okay, so let's see. Okay. Oh, examination. It's kind of sad. People just want to be free and rural people are just good at taking care of. Okay, I think this is like unrelated. Sorry about that.

My apologies. Okay, so we are hearing that Achilles Larea is having here. I'll just have Robbie come in and explain that. What's up with Achilles? Trying to get him on. He's trying to connect using his phone through Rumble Studio. When you buy LG, you get so much more than just an appliance. You get more done, more cost savings, more peace of mind, and more control,

because LG appliances are designed to do more, like washers and dryers with AI tech to take out the guesswork, refrigerators that fit in tight spaces and keep food fresher, longer, or ranges with precise induction cooking and easy cleanup built in, all with the style you want, and rely on. liability you can count on so you can get more from your home every day. LG appliances so much more. Make life easier with LG. See the latest models and savings now at LG.com. And it's opening up the apps who's able to see his library and stuff and create a stream but not join one. So I'm trying to walk him through while doing this on the back end.

Can you can you do it through his Safari browser on his phone? I also want to try to walk him through now. You don't want you guys just tell it, like not to go to the Rumble app, I guess. Yeah, well, it would be easier if he's able to use his iPad or his computer. But also it happens. Okay, all right. Keep Trump is going to China. Right.

Yeah, let's talk about that. Trump is in China. So Trump goes, of course, the topics from the U.S. point of view is going to be Iran, obviously, because Trump is in a fix. There's other conversations probably going to be about trade. He's bought all of these tech bros with him, Il-A-Mas, Tim Cook, etc. They're going to be only there for two days, so I don't know how much negotiations they're going to be able to do within the context of those two days.

Taiwan is going to be a major issue for China. And China made this point about, look, we need to avoid Thucydides trap in regards to our relationship. In the readout, the U.S. didn't mention Taiwan at all, whereas China has pointed out, Taiwan is the major issue that we need to deal with. Basically, stop militarizing Taiwan. Yeah, maybe call off your Japanese dog. And that one, too, call off your Japanese dog, which is effectively happening with Germany and with Japan, meaning the machines back together again. Just got to get the Italians in. Well, the U.S. is used effectively these countries as tips of the spear and this kind of larger hegemonic grab all on the table for control.

Lucidity's trap is an interesting commentary by Xi Jinping. It just is. So many guests, when they have the conversation about China, they come and make this argument that we're equals, we're equals. This is China's not going to take a backseat to the U.S. which to be honest comes across a slightly insecure to me. And Xi Jinping mentioning Thucidity's trap. Okay, well, that's talking about rising power and established power. That doesn't sound like he's talking about this relationship in terms of equality, even though he may push for it. Meaning lucidity's trap is talking about China as if China is a rising power as opposed to China being an established hedgemind.

Those are different things, which is an interesting. point that he's making. I mean, A, I don't think we can avoid it. And in fact, I think we're already in the middle of it. So him mentioning it seems to ignore the fact that I think we're in the middle of it. But I don't think we're in the middle of it in the context of China and the U.S. I think we're in the middle of it in the case of China, Iran, and China, Iran, Russia, versus the U.S. led west.

Meaning, I think we're in the middle of Thucydides track. I mean, for fuck's sake. We're in a war in Iran. We're in a war in Russia. And the Trump has been doing trade policy trying to go after China and the U.S. has been trying to go out to China point all the way back to the Obama era, maybe even earlier. And so like this idea that what we're trying to avoid Thucydides trap, I think we're already there. We're already giving your take on that, Ted. I mean, you're a student in history. You would know this stuff. Yeah, I mean, it's like I can, I mean, I guess in my mind, China is still, I mean, you know, what this is, you and I both have, and I've noticed this about you in the years that we've talked about stuff, you and I both have something that a lot of people don't seem to have, which is good pattern recognition. Like we can, we know where we are, but you and I can see, like, based on the way things have been rolling, we can see how things are like are going to be in a way that like others maybe aren't so good at it. I don't mean to say that that's, it's just a difference in their personality. It doesn't mean that we're smarter than they are. But the point is it's just like the way our brains operate, right?

And I think, so for me, I'm like, okay, to me right now, China's a rising hedge is a rising power right now. However, you and I both know it's inevitable that it's really equality. It's got parity. There's not, you know, economically, militarily, diplomatically, maybe, you know, in, every respect, you know, the Chinese are equal and maybe then some, particularly when it comes to like building infrastructure, stability, you know, diplomacy, on the diplomatic front, I mean, obviously China is seeking to be way ahead of us. So, you know, we can see that direction. I mean, I guess, you know, the reason I didn't put the trip into the rundown this morning is

I don't expect it to make any news. You know, it's 40, it's going to be, it's 48 hours of ceremonies. Is the U.S. really going to go to war for Taiwan? It not only does it have no legal basis to do so, since it doesn't, it literally considers Taiwan to be part of the People's Republic of China as a matter of official State Department policy, but on top, but on top of that, our hands are full and we don't care enough to do it. And, you know, God, Lord knows, Donald Trump's trying to extract himself from a war right now. And with Iran, he doesn't know. The last thing he needs or wants is, is any kind

of conflict with China. This is basically about Xi saying, like, listen, let's just you and I be good. Let's all make money. Let's not fuck with each other. Dude, can you just do that? And I think Donald Trump has no choice but to do that. And therefore, I think that's where we are. This is not a Nixon goes to China moment. It's not, I mean, you know, every president since Nixon has been to China. You know, kind of nothing much really happens. The relationship hasn't really changed. The situation across the Taiwan Strait, which is, by the way, a bizarre historical situation, leaving the people of Taiwan in this diplomatic limbo, which, you know, there are a lot of countries that effectively have stateless or semi-stateless people. Taiwan is effectively not a real

state. It's only recognized by fewer than, I think, 10 other countries and half of them are tiny little Pacific Island nations like Vanuatu. And I know a lot about this because my ex-wife was Taiwanese. So I know all about this stuff. And my father-in-law, who is now past, was a big Taiwanese independence activist. So I'm very familiar with these politics. I didn't know this about you, Ted. Yeah. So the thing is, the Taiwanese situation, Taiwan, so there's a lot of the, you know, obviously,

the Palestinians are stateless, right? The people of Kashmir are stateless and so on. But Taiwan's the only place on the planet where people who effectively have that status, are rich, prosperous in a vibrant economy, and basically live, they live, you know, lives that are indistinguishable than if they lived in a normal country like Japan or South Korea. So the, so that's a really weird thing that the world has allowed, you know, normally the world doesn't care about poor and disadvantaged people, but it tends to care about people who generate, you know, have a vibrant microprocessor microchip production business and one of a giant tiger economy.

But we don't care. Somehow it's just like steady as she goes. You know, it's like we have this sophistry that Taiwan is, you know, it's not independent, but it's de facto independent. But we're not going to recognize it because it'll piss off the Chinese. But also, we can't recognize them anyway because the Taiwanese have an absolute. to be recognized, right? They haven't declared independence. So they haven't. They've never, they've never declared independence. I'm just saying they won't. They're afraid. They won't. Because China, right. China has been very clear. You are part of China. And if you declare your

independence, that is a red line. Meaning you can come up to that line. You've been across that line. And by the way, the other, and it's also weird because the the KMT, right, which is the old chankaj shek, you know, dictatorship right-wing party, the Guamantan, right? These are the people who have been the government of exile, purportedly, the Republic of China, living in exile on the island of Taiwan that someday hopes to be the little amoeba that wants to eat the whale of mainland China. They're the pro-China party now and the, you know, on the island. And they're the ones who are kind of pushing for closer.

or maybe eventual reintegration, whereas the DPP, the Democratic Progressive Party, which is pro-independence, they're against that. So, I mean, everything has re-aligned, and it's very, very strange. It's wild. And the U.S. is effectively salami-slicing the one-China policy as a way of getting at China.

It's very wild. I mean, China has said repeatedly, That is a red line. That is a red line. And for the U.S., I mean, imagine for the moment if the United States, I mean, if China decided we're going to put military in Hawaii, that's outrageous or Puerto Rico. Right. Or let's say the Mariana Islands, which is right off China's coast, right? But it's an American colony. with that. And yet we put troops in Taiwan. We give the military equipment, et cetera, and we salami slice the one China policy over and over and over again. So it's almost like we're trying to Ukraine as Taiwan. And you would think. The Chinese know that we're being, that they're being used, right? Like the, I mean, the Taiwanese know they're being used to play off against,

because like the Taiwanese complain about it incessantly that basically, basically the, that what, that we sell them slightly obsolete planes at premium prices. And basically, they know they could never use them really to effectively fight off the Chinese if they ever decided to invade. There's nothing that could be done. And we just, you know, it's all part of the, the defense grift. And they're right. They know it's what.

I mean, they know they're on their own. They know we're not coming to help them if the Chinese come. then what's the point of like acting like the independence parties have to know that a the u.s is on a decline b can't defend them i mean you can look at the golf states if nothing else you can look at ukraine if nothing else the u.s is not cannot defend you in any real terms of the word and there's a question of what we even try there's that no i don't i don't think we will or that we would. And I mean, yeah, I mean, it's kind of, it's a game. It's a grift. It's ridiculous. And, you know, I remember my, I mean, and the thing is, man, when you do a deep dive into

Taiwanese politics, things get so wacky. So, for example, my father-in-law was, he subscribed to this idea that because of the status of Taiwan between 1945 and 1949, when basically the Japanese surrendered. Taiwan was a Japanese colony ever since the Sino-Japanese War, right? Right. And so they've been occupying it since the 1890s. Then in 1945, the U.S. basically took it over as sort of military occupation. For a few years, there was a nascent ethnic Taiwanese independent.

government on the island. And then in 1949, when the KMT, the nationalists, lost the war in the mainland, they fled to Taiwan with the help of the U.S. Navy, which also helped them loot all the museums and the gold supply from the mainland. And they came over. And then they allowed that they overthrew the Taiwanese government, the ethnic Taiwanese, not to be confused with the Han Chinese, overthrew them, murdered the intellectuals and high-ranking officials, college professors. It's called like the 228 incidents, and installed Chenka Shek as a dictator of Taiwan. They think that during that status, a lot of these DPP people, that that was never resolved in any other way that technically Taiwan is still under a U.S. protectorate as of 1945, and therefore, they would like to become.

the 51st state. What? Uh-huh. And I remember my father-in-law, we used to talk about this for hours. And he's like, what do you think of this? I said, I think it's retarded. I think that I had the same reaction you did. Like, what?

And I was like, no American would go for that. We don't even know what you're talking about. Like, that's like your own fever dream. And I was like, well, you guys, if you want into, he's like, the U.S. should give us are independence. And I'm like, the U.S. can't give you your independence. You have to declare independence. And then, well, but then the Chinese might come. And they might the war. The Chinese indeed might come. They might not, but they might. And I kind of think they probably wouldn't, but they might. And so. Look, I don't think China is fucking around about it. Well, also, this was pre-president

Xi. And so I think, you know, things are a little spicier now under, under, regime. He's much more of a nationalist. But I think previous regimes might have been inclined to let Taiwan go. Like, fuck it. We play the long game in China. We'll come back in like a thousand years and get it later, right? Like, who cares? Right. We have the economic relationship. That's all that matters. But the point is, I was like, you wanted to declare, this is true about anyone. You want to declare independence. Declare independence and like maybe there will be bloodshed like there was in East Timor. But if you get the sympathy of the world, you'll get your independence. That's how these things work. Yeah, you got to win the war. That's what it was down to. I mean, for better force, whether it's good or bad, it's just the way it worked. I mean, it worked

the way here in the States. Okay, I think we have, we have Achilles Larea's cell phone. We have something here trying to log in. I'll let's put in Robbie. Akiles, if you can hear me, we need you to activate your, oh, Achilles is gone. Okay, Robbie, I'll let you go back to Trump. Ding it then. I'll tell you all, I mean, this remote troubleshooting is awesome. Oh, it's so much fun. Yeah, so much fun. I think we do need to start teeing up the topic.

Look, it's not like he doesn't know it when he comes on. So we'll go ahead and do that. First of about, let me see if there's any, let me see if there's any ads for us to do. And no. Okay. So, yeah, so finishing up with China. When you buy LG, you get so much more than just an appliance. You get more done, more cost savings, more peace of mind, and more control,

because LG appliances are designed to do more, like washers and dryers with AI tech to take out the guesswork, refrigerators that fit in tight spaces and keep food fresher, longer, or ranges with precise induction cooking and easy cleanup built in, all with the style you want and reliability you can count on so you can get more from your home every day. LG appliances so much more. Make life easier with LG. See the latest models and savings now at LG.com. I think you're right. I think the Chinese are not fucking around. I think the whole world is done just doing whatever the fuck we want. And they basically, you know, whether it's Russia, Iran and China, they're all, who are all in this like interesting new organization, but we could talk about that some other time. Okay.

Let me just add Achilles here. Achilles, could you turn on your mic and your camera and I think we'll be good. Okay. All right. So we'll see if when that happens. And hopefully he can hear us. Anything more on China before I bring in the next. I think you're right.

I think the U.S. is messing around. I think they're playing with fire. I think China is serious about it. I don't think they're going to militarily attack Taiwan. I think from their point of view, just the gravity of being beside a country that size with that industrial and economic output is going to kind of draw closer and closer to it.

Yeah. Yeah, for sure. I mean, it's like Hong Kong. It's like Macau. All things will come back, right? So I think, yeah, they're definitely playing the long game that way. All right. So let's talk about J.P. Morgan, this huge bank.

They're the first major bank to weigh in in a detailed analytical way in this 25-plus page report that basically says, you know, what their analysts are looking at in terms of the financial and economic consequences of the war in Iran. And basically, we know that about 14% or 13.7 million barrels a day of global capacity has been either locked up or stopped being refined over the month of April. Obviously, we're now two weeks into May. So it's going to be more, that's an ongoing thing. it takes a while to get the numbers. Gas prices are high. It's hilarious. I was listening to the

Republicans who are still, you know, basically they know that they really screwed up yesterday with Trump's comments about not caring about the economic pain being caused by the war to ordinary Americans. And they're trying to explain their way out of that. And one of them was saying, like, I know we've got to, like, you know, explain to people while they're paying $4 for gas. hey, if you're paying $4 for gas, can you tell me where? Because I want to go there because I'm paying $5.20 for gas. But anyway, it's just going to keep going up. And I think this is that pattern recognition thing.

We can see where this is going. We and I have been talking about this for weeks now. It's going to be bad. And basically, J.P. Morgan is confirming that. They're saying, look, the supply chain disruptions, the securities markets, everything is going to catch up. And basically they put Donald Trump kind of on a timeline. They say you have about three weeks to make peace with Iran before you blow up the international

and the American economy. By the way, they gave some advice if you're an investor, hedge by buying energy stocks. You know, they're only going to go up. I'm surprised they're not. already like it is surprising to me that this hasn't been priced in already it's shocking to me that it has been priced in already i mean they're in full-on ostrich mode yeah it's very strange like you would think that like speculators would be like hey this war isn't going anywhere anytime soon or hey this war has caused x-y-z disruptions we should price in but that's not the way it works

In fact, it's even weirder. Donald Trump is a flagrant liar. Everybody understands Donald Trump's a flagmer liar. And yet, when Trump says stuff like, yeah, the war is coming to an end, gas goes down. And you do this over and over like the boy who cried woof. And they're so seemingly reluctant to deal with that that they continue to sleep believe them. Russia, I mean, what am I guess pointed out this morning? like the attacks that are taking place on energy were mitigated by the amount of oil going up in value.

Like meaning the war in Iran has been increasing the cost of gas or oil in a way that is less a buttress. Some of the attacks that Ukraine has been running on Russian energy. Like meaning you would think... In a big way. Yeah, in a big way. You would think that this stuff would have been, would have spiked by now. And yeah, if you're talking about Europe and if you're talking about, let's say, Africa, maybe the South America, okay, fair enough. But in the States, no.

There's irrational optimism here on the part of a lot of market analysts where I think they think that Donald Trump will not let this go too far. That this will, you know, ultimately he will blake and reason will prevail. And I think that, and that's what they, that's what they think. I don't think so. Not only do I think he will blink, I don't think he knows how to blink. I mean, in all the reporting I've seen about the deliberations happening in the White House, they talk about all the options he has available, that he's not going to do anything while he's in China. He's going to wait until he comes back.

So first of all, he doesn't hear any, have to hear it listen to any shit from Xi, but also just so he can focus on it and make that decision. with a relatively clear mind to the extent that that's possible with this man, and that he's therefore going to come back and he's going to make a move. Of all the moves that are listed as possibilities, none of them is, you know, make a deal with the Iranians that, like, is mutually beneficial. None of them. They're all like, I mean, you know, I could see, for example, seriously, if they were me,

I said this would be speaking Iran's language, I'd be like, Listen, unilaterally, I'm going to give you back, I'm going to release a quarter of your, of your frozen assets. Just like that, I don't need anything back. I just want you to know I'm serious about making a deal with you. That's like, that would be like a smart move. That would speak very well to the Persian mentality. But it would show respect. It would show understanding and deference.

But an acknowledgement of reality. And like, you know, you could always be like, I'm not releasing the rest if, you know, things don't move forward. But everything is about like, oh, I'll bomb. He can bomb more. He can blow up more elementary schools with more Iranian school children in them. He can try to figure out where the nuclear dust is. He can, I mean, it's all about like, I'll use bigger weapons.

That's not going to help. You've got to where you are now with that strategy. It's not going to get better. That strategy would be. devastating for America and for the global markets. Because what Iran would do is target Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain. They were targeted oil fields in those particular countries and those countries. Many if the U.S. basis, the U.S. basis got trashed.

There's that. Iranian targeting has been far more precise than what the Americans believed it to be. And you think energy is bad now because it can't get frustrated for most. what happens when it just doesn't exist, which is the issue. Meaning if they're blowing up Saudi oilfields, so they're blowing up all fills in Bahrain, or they're blowing up oil fills in UAE, or they're blowing up oil fills in an ad whatever random place, that is capacity that you don't get, meaning that's stuff that you can't get, not that it can't get through the straight sitting on a boat.

It's you just can't get it because it no longer exists. And for however long it takes to rebuild, that. capacity. I'm saying it would be a disaster. Like those are his options. As you articulated, hey, you either walk, call it a day, in which case you fail on the world stage as a head your mind as an American. You escalate or you keep the blockade. All of those things are bad options. And I saw Achilles and now he faded. Yeah, yeah. We're going to figure this out. Yeah. So, all right. So, I mean, let's take it. We have some comments here.

John D. Cackelfeller, thanks for the two dollars. I agree with what you fellas are saying. One thing that bothers me about my fellow righties is this borderline fetishization of the police. They are not your friend. Of course that. No, I mean, like, no, it's funny to me. I mean, I've had this discussion with people on the left and the right. And some of them will say, like, oh, I've never had a negative interaction with a cop.

I'm like, do you, you never go outside? You don't drive a car. You, you know, you, I mean, like, what? I mean, most of, I mean, I can definitely, I've had some positive interactions with the police. But they're the exception, of course. Yeah. You know, and it's like, and I'm like, and I'm a white guy. I'm like, I mean, I know what they're like.

And it's like, I don't, and, you know, it's funny because one of the things I really respect about right wingers and my conservative friends, is that they have the skepticism of the state. Well, you know, the cops are the armed agents of the state who will do whatever the state tells them to do, no matter who the state is. Like historically, you know,

when the Nazis took over France, they didn't hire new police. They didn't bring new police with them. They just gave the orders to the French police. And hey, hey, now we don't need you to direct traffic. now we need you to arrest Jews. And the cops are like, okay. And then when the Vichy regime collapsed and the new government came in, hey, there's Achilles.

Let's go ahead and do that before we lose him. Hey, Achilles, how are you? Good morning, Ted. Mornings you on. How are you? Good morning, man. It's nice seeing you again. How you doing?

Nice seeing you. Had super trouble today. And it turns out that the iOS does work because that's... That's what I'm on. Okay. I tried Chrome and all this. So we had a little technical difficulty, but you know what? I'm here and let's make the most of it.

Okay, let's do it. Let's do it indeed. We've only got like three, four minutes left. So, Aquinas, I don't know if you heard about this JP Morgan assessment. We talked about, within a month, they're expecting oil prices to go up to 150 bucks a gallon for Brent crude. They basically say that the president has about three to four weeks to get serious about making peace with Iran before all hell breaks loose economically, domestically and internationally. What say you? War is an expensive business and oil is an expensive business.

Everything is affected by this. I don't care who you think you are. I don't care what you think, you know, you're doing consumer goods. How do you think stuff gets delivered? You have to spend money, oil, gasoline, not going to be not affected by this. So, you know, we're looking at, we're going from Brent Crude being about 104, going to 150. That's a pretty conservative estimate, in my opinion. I think, you know, the big problem with...

For all this, right? Yeah, you know, I think the problem with this, what's going on, is the market. doesn't like uncertainty. And when you have uncertainty, the market goes down and then everybody gets screwed. So it's very important that we start to see some sort of action plan guys by this administration. And right now there's absolutely none that, you know, that I can discern. I think that, you know, they want to have a game plan, but nothing's going on right now. And it's going to cost at the pump. It's going to cost at the supermarket. Even your plastics, you know, think about it.

Where does that come from? It comes from oil. So, you know, we're going to be affected. And the longer this drags on, the more it's going to hurt us. Do you think they're going to, I mean, obviously, if you were clairvoyant, you'd be even richer than you are. But do you think that the president is going to get real that his advisors, His economic advisors are telling him the same thing you just said now and that he's going to crack,

or is he going to listen to Netanyahu instead? Well, you know, I think that he's going to do what he's going to do, and his advisors are going to be blue in the face trying to get him to do otherwise. I don't think necessarily he's following Netanyahu. I think that he is not equipped to handle this, because he's gone into a situation where the enemy has been preparing for this for more than a decade, for three decades, I want to say.

And that alone, the resolve of an enemy that is ready to do so is going to affect us. And if we don't find a fast solution to this where we can bow out gracefully and say, hey, you know what? Our bad. Israel kind of got us into this or whoever got us into this, we need to figure this out and fast. Achilles, sorry that we didn't have you for longer, but travel safely.

Thank you so much for joining us. That's Achilles Larea, a friend of the show, and the head of Larea wealth management in New York City. We're going to thank you, Achilles. Hope everything goes well for you. One last comment before we go. Sir Bikes a lot. Thanks for the two bucks. My girlfriend got kicked out of the DSA, that's the Democratic Socialists.

After organizing rallies, the reason was that she said that slave owners fought at the Alamo. Okay, then. So with that, that seems like a good place to leave it. Any final thoughts, J.T.? No, you guys have a fantastic evening. I love that. I don't want to mess with my comment. We'll be back.

Friday, 9 a.m. Eastern time. In the meantime, please stay tuned to the TMI show with me and Manila Chan. That's coming up in just a minute or two. If you're on Rumble, you'll be rated automatically. If you're on YouTube, you have to go and look for it. But we appreciate you. Robbie, you'll be sitting in for Manila. And I've got Scott Stantis and our guest, Rob Rogers, cartoonist for the former cartoonist for the Pittsburgh paper. Good guest. He's going to be joining us for DMZ America at 11 o'clock. See you then. Bye, JT.

See you tomorrow. Have a good one, Alice. Have a good one, guys. Bye-bye. When you buy LG, you get so much more than just an appliance. You get more done. More cost savings. More peace of mind.

And more control. Because LG appliances are designed to do more. Like washers and dryers with AI tech to take out the guesswork. Refrigerators that fit in tight spaces and keep food fresher, longer. Or ranges with precise induction cooking and easy cleanup built in, all with the style you want, and reliability you can count on, so you can get more from your home every day. LG appliances, so much more.

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