Do Go On - Earnings Season: Episode 5 - Money Talk with @5Solae

Episode Date: September 11, 2019

This week Randy and Danhai speak to popular Investor Ryan Strachan, Assistant Vice President of Investor Relations at GK Capital. Follow Ryan on Twitter at @5Solae (his personal account) and of course our hosts @RTRowe & @HDanhai. We cover a lot, including; MPCCEL Prospectus - http://bit.ly/2zlJQcT MPCCEL Dividends - http://bit.ly/2mdx8Jx Kremi Prospectus - http://bit.ly/2kcyPpX Junior Market Closing - http://bit.ly/2lONQig - http://bit.ly/2lPeEyy Junior Market Reopening - http://bit.ly/2lHBacN TransJamaica Highway to IPO - http://bit.ly/2lQN4Ru Jamaica Mortgage Bank IPO - http://bit.ly/2kEEDZv Blue Power Financial Statement - http://bit.ly/2lPbSta QWI Prospectus - http://bit.ly/2kgVqlg Long shout-out list but special mention to: Michael Lee Chin - @Michael_LeeChin Dr. Nigel Clarke - @DrNigelClarkeJa Richard Byles and of course.... John Jackson @JohnHJack ★ Support this podcast ★

Hi guys welcome to this week's episode of earnings season with me RT Rowe and Randy Rowe okay and sorry sorry sorry to talk over you sir what's your name I'm Danaiho all right and this is earnings season and I will jump straight into the intro of our guest with us this week week i'm gonna admit that i did honors then i introduced him earlier before he got here you're saying the man the myth the legend there we go all right and we're here at bam production studios as always with bam in the background big up bam and yes so here we are ryan strong i'll say your last name where you want me to beat that out strong doesn't matter all right there we go i live with it there we go uh you know what i should ask here i don't know what i i sent it to united so we can't edit

it out should i say youtube i use a name yeah please all right so get ready for the mob five so late what's worse than no oh yeah all right guys you hear him say can't much worse than or prove him wrong yes every week i do a shout out to ryan and here he is a good version of mine so ryan five so late so what's up ryan good man it's good to be here happy to have you here you're blessing us this week on the podcast um thanks to all the people giving the feedback i like the feedback all the time i'm always hearing it don't don't don't get me wrong even if you don't see me immediately because it is taken into consideration so thank you to everybody

who has given some feedback I'm gonna jump right into it last you get anything interesting in the market up this week that silence means no you know what there is some interesting stuff in the market the market i don't know if i want to drop any market talk just yet because i i want to hear ryan's view on it so let's go market talk early i think one interesting thing happened npc dropped a big big big big dividend right and you know you guys who know me know i don't give a damn about dividends but you can knock a good dividend you can knock a good way of making money that's free money it's over 10 percent it's not just about there nine plus yeah yeah nine plus when it's us dollars so yeah it's attractive very very very attractive yeah yeah yeah guys wow so there's your tip have thank you for listening to this episode of earnings yeah yeah all right so warian is talking about the rights issues. There's almost no shares available. Zero. Yeah. I lost.

Yeah. I was trying. I wanted. I couldn't get none. Let this be a lesson to all of you guys, including me, who ignored it at IPO. Yeah.

Speaking of it being a US dollar dividend, at IPO, you could have bought it for $130. Oh. The dividend in US is a good conversion rate. Can you imagine that? Yeah. Yeah. that's crazy

today's one that's a conversion rate of 138 i think yeah yeah yeah that's win-win win-win yeah you know big up the jc for attracting that kind of talent to jsc i mean i shout out to mpc because and they they they conceptualize some projects and they move them close to completion granted their investors but it's a good thing to see these projects coming on stream like paradise park in westmoreland big big deal so that's what they actually own yeah one of the things i think came on and i think yes yeah they have a central america they have an investment there and the cayman is actually where actual fund is the npc fund so the fun that exactly so that that's exactly how how it is i remember looking at the quarter the report the june and i was on the it was on it was

underwhelming to me it was one one cent per share so when i saw the dividend that's that's my interest peak yeah yeah eight cents per share yeah you want to make that change sauce they give them the secrets it's not as much as secret sauce we can talk at the secret sauce i mean well then i mentioned it to me then i actually sent my message during the week about it it's like yo they're paying a dividend how so check and so if you've read any of those this is an ad go to every michael.com so if you read any articles there you'd have seen me talk about dividends can only be paid from retained earnings right and i was pointed the last set of results they had negative in retained earnings so they couldn't spend any money yet they've just declared that they've a big dividend big dividend all the ipo money they got

was paid out i think they paid out 10.5 million 10 million plus yeah 10 million plus and we gave them 11 million so the money was done so they couldn't be paying a one million dollar dividend if they didn't get one million dollars from us and didn't earn $1 million as of June. Yeah. So it would seem like a lot of money is about to hit them or has hit them. Yeah. I mean, let me tell you what jumped out at me.

I'll be honest. It's one of the few prospectuses I did not read. I completely missed it. I started it and I stopped. My bad. Yeah. Terrible book. And the MDNA came out in June. i never read anything and i usually read all this

stuff and you know you have a revision of your thoughts you go back having seen a dividend which prompted it and i saw where they said they bill jps and i was just like jano just start billing jps no you know because the government paid him for the lights and everything the street lights and all that seven billion dollars plus and you know because that's through the paradise park thing and obviously paradise park is up and running and has generated cash well you know electricity to sell for cash i don't know if you don't finish no i don't really remember my first message to him about MPC. This was right after June. I opened the report and I saw 1.11. So I thought it was $1 per share they were making.

So you're on the old, they make you $1 per share and we gave them $1 for the IPO. Something going on here, man. And then Randy's response was cents. It's one cent. But they report in US cents, oh yeah yeah yeah which has been throwing off a couple of people sometimes because a couple of companies did that yeah but yeah mpc going back to mpc and what you're saying it was one set that u.s thing throws a lot of people

out because i remember it threw us off with uh was first first where's first signals yeah yeah yeah that's another one that well i didn't i think you brought it to my attention for us on on on twitter yeah man no like it was john jackson short also john yeah boy i think it might be because i gave him some heat the last two years let's balance it out look at it so john pointed it out and then i thought boy this is great i mean 11 cents you do the conversion whatever didn't work out for me but it's worth now 15. this movie worked out for somebody there you go you know but yeah i think i think we'll have there's a deficiency with the us dollar conversions and how it's being read or interpreted across the market so obviously it's an opportunity

for somebody to do that yeah and do it well yeah yeah yes I'll make some plants on one yeah and I think themselves you're right it's just a funny thing I wonder if it's a way is when MPC came out it came out around a lot of other little things so that it just didn't get a lot of attention on it at first so even I cuz I read it I'm a reading about I remember seeing Angela rings rain for that I thought my mother had a friend in the same person I remember reading about it I remember seeing Angela Rainford And I thought My mother had a friend Named Angela Rainford That's one of the same person

I don't know To this day I don't know But that's what Pulled So that's what Pulled me to it At first I look

It's alright But coming around Same time I think Lab was Soon Announced then A couple of things And you're like

Boy I don't know Everything else Everything else was better Yeah And Wictown was flying then too Yeah Wictown was flying then too Because Wictown did just this like boy yeah i don't know everything else everything else was better yeah and wicton was flying then oh yeah yeah i was flying into it because we can just listen to you is this really going to be is there really money here that's everybody was wondering if it was going to work

or not right and it would miss the second thing because if you think about it in simple terms mpc is essentially just a second week done except it's for solar yeah pretty much and even in the brokerage community I can tell you there wasn't there was a complaint that the broker probably never did the best job of informing the markets about like really making people know what this had to do with you so there was the diaspora conference and Angela sport there and we got to learn about Paradise Park and how far she's taken it from. It was really great to learn that. But I didn't know that same NPC had an interest in that venture, which would have kind of painted it differently for me

because nobody's going to buy into something they don't understand. Right? I think they said it in the prospectus, to be honest. They did, but I'd go and say, wait, we'll come back to the broker now. I don't think that was communicated in fact you'd say now right you're right there was it was kind of light on who was it was it was i don't remember probably jane or something like that until you say like this is that that's probably james oh jesus christ let me let me start let me start let me say you know what i'll be honest i'm sorry you guys heard my honest reaction i'm not jane is cool but i don't think them they're

not as hungry as some of the other houses you hear houses i know i mean yeah and if you get spoiled at we are spoiled maybe we spoiled us over the last few years that's true that's true we're being very aggressive and putting the bar very high so everybody has to kind of come that high to do it and then guys hold on if you thought you heard thunder while ago you're going to hear it again ssl also used to be very very very aggressive with when i say aggressive in a good way yeah they're doing a listing it was very good you know what let me introduce let me let me pause here guys there's a tangent let me pause here and let me introduce ryan properly all right ryan strong let me give pran a proper a proper interest ryan strong is we say where you work. You know where we say you work? GK Capital.

Yes, usually we say we're not investment advisors here. We can't say that this week because Ryan is actually an investment advisor. He knows his stuff. I won't go too deep, but Ryan is a good part of the market. I've known Ryan for years. I will tell you, anybody hear me talk about my creamy story, I still own 6,000 creamy creamy shares which I bought at a dollar because Ryan strong convicts right yes yeah I will never forget that creamy

that creamy by the way they are nowhere a lot more so thank you ran for that unless the last time I mentioned creamy those days yeah yeah creamy has done very very well about those shirts at one dollar yeah and there are no a lot more maybe 600 percent more yeah something like that yeah over time yeah so ryan has been in the game even longer than that so that was a company that he helped him yeah brought the mandate to the broker probably the first advisor to do something like that yeah and i think and this is randy row speaking, no one else, I think that is the best listing that SSL has done in my,

you guys who work in interest, you need to shut up and I say things like this, and keep yourselves out of trouble. Randy Rowe is saying, I think that is the best listing that SSL has done since I haven't seen anything as impressive. Maybe, but it came close. They did JSC.

Oh yeah? Oh yes, JSC was also a good listing. Yeah, were you there during that time i was i was i was i was a wealth manager at the time so in terms of communicating with the market about the deal i did a lot of that yeah but it's funny you always like the market's completely different now from you know you remember them then they believe iran had to convince me to buy shares believe it ran out to convince me to buy shares the ice cream leader the dominant market player right probably had off top of my head less than 300 applications then yeah six years ago was completely different if that was no they'd have

maybe four to three thousand yeah yeah check on that baby I don't think I can add 500 people when they listed that's crazy man yeah no no a thousand is a small listing if you did a thousand then i remember lasco was 2010 and or 2010 yeah 10 lasco probably combined had a thousand the three lasco companies can you imagine lasco going public now laska laska name brand name yeah the huge company no yeah you can't ramp with them no they know no they know they're up there with yeah in the same i mean not in terms of size but yes yes you know they do seven billion in revenues manufacturing alone so if you talk distributors you're probably talking another seven eight nine ten eleven billion so really and truly manufacturing and distributors you're probably talking another seven eight nine ten eleven billion so

really and truly manufacturing and distributors are running close to a single i think we sink is about 25 billion thereabouts so i mean it's i mean granted after money we're talking about on both sides but it takes some doing you know boy i just it takes some doing but i'm just you know i'm literally talking to you and i'm remembering what it was like back then you know you just have to beg people to come onto the market tonight literally yeah literally you have to show them the true value of it in fact as reminiscing and i had the audio footage of the jsc for the jSC investor briefing before they went to Mac. And I remember at the time I was saying that I had to, we really had to sell it to people that listen, as this entity grows,

as the market grows, the JSC stock itself will grow because of low interest rates, you know, because you had the, the, you had companies that were still coming to Mac like household names because you were probably two years removed from Lascaux cream it would have been within that year so brands people use were coming to Mackey but at the time there was no sinker yes in fact at the time there was there was thought that the junior Mackey was gonna be wound up the change of the moment I have I still I still have people for of course but not talk of it wound up people forget it was it was wound up because you had to give they had to give some persons the refunds or their

incentive retroactively yes yes because it was 2016 it had come to a close matter of fact we had like a slew of listings when Key listed. Like on the last day, like four companies listed just to catch it. December 31st, 2015. Just to catch it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, so the junior market was actually ended.

It restarted when, I think I'd never ever touched politics, but I did for one, because it's a matter of fact. It restarted when the JLP ran on a campaign. One of the campaign points was that they will reinstitute the market. The one, Audley Shaw really did reinstitute the market.

And we are all thankful for it. No, because no, I mean, no. The lab listed with 2500 and something applicants. And that was a small listing. No, no, right? Five, two, five. No, the market has changed. And so I said that to say that

ryan is no slow trying knows his stuff he's been around for a long time um sometimes like i like to give quick descriptions he's he's like me with more control yeah i get myself in trouble yeah i get myself in trouble all the time right around ryan is more measured he's more he's more sensible there um let me jump right into it background give some background your work your life sure background let's start with work so i am what i've been doing this nine years no you've been doing it longer than that well in the business formally because also ah you know yeah yeah yeah yeah but we're in 2019 now bro yeah so i went to 10 years since 2009 i went to me very 2009 I went to rat yes I was

to me very 2010 yeah yes second yes started there well investment advisor you know grew into SSL did four years there that was when I started in management developing teams and having my own portfolio the whole time for portfolio of clients and my whole premise was trying to bridge the gap between research and sales. I remember you wrote to me about that. Yeah, so many times people would always set their approach of saying they want to do sales or they want to do research but then if you think about it if you if

you're in a bar and you happen to cross paths with some rich guy or you know wealthy person and you end up talking and he says to you yo what do you do you know apart from you know buy drinks and chat and you know have a good time and you may say well i'm an investment advisor he may say well funny enough you know my my my mom just left me $85 million. You know, she unfortunately passed. What should I do with it? If you say I need to call my research team, let's meet up on Monday,

you'll never get a dollar of business from that person. That's right, that's right, that's right. You see why this guy's on the show now, right? So my thing was always, well, I need to be able to pull information on the spot, be it according to that circumstance, to be able to help that individual at that moment. Or I could be on a plane, I need to be able to pull information on the spot, according to that circumstance, to be able to help that individual at that moment. Or I could be on a plane. I could be anywhere.

You know, if somebody asks me a question, then I should be able to answer it. So I dedicate a lot of my time towards research and sales. I actually just thought that more people would have done that. It'd be surprising the things that you think people do logically, that they don't know yeah and that was the case in 2010 i must have been what 27 so i'm 36 now it's 27 nobody nobody was doing it yeah yeah the industry yes yeah yeah even though so when you talk to people no i mean we have i think we have a resurgent but a lot of that is not necessarily players in the business there are investors who

will then say i don't respect my advisor because i know more than the person well he said you call my name when you call my name call my name straight up you know i don't respect my vice i can't i know more than them yeah and and what's more is not that like i know more than them so they're sending me into a three percent play instead of a twenty percent play it's that yo i'm sending myself into a fifty percent play and these guys are sending me into a loss you can't even have a conversation that's a problem yes oh yes yes that's the problem it's not even so much you you may know something at the time is but the thing is this other person does not know at all okay best example somebody may say yesterday did you hear last night

they made somebody may have said I heard no somebody may say I have a bond right GOJ 2022 and I hear the government's buying them back and i've asked maybe like what do you mean they're buying it back where you heard that but it was in the friday papers yeah right right in the friday papers and i mean if you get your emails in-house you would have known from the guys who sell you the bonds so it's inexcusable i mean not i mean you know i have a lot of respect for mabry and all they've done now one thing emails in-house you would have known from the guys who sell you the bonds so it's inexcusable I mean not I mean you know I have a lot to respect for me and all they've done now one thing and I took everything Gary and Chris and Mark and Paul was my boss said very seriously and one thing they

said was and don't hold this part against me in light of MPC but they said well Gary said specifically he reads every prospectus within 24 hours he himself straight up all right that's why i'm kicking myself because i read npcs i didn't maybe one or two i never read i think i didn't read everything fresh either but now that's how i read that but yeah but and that stuck with me because it became the thing of this man's ceo he's taking the time to read the prospectus in 24 hours because he could very well be in a situation with other bigwigs and they said to him boy what should I do with this money no he has seven answer mm-hmm so then I said if I want to be like that or surpass

that surpass that or whatever then I need to have answers mm-hmm 1000% I have another quote from Gary but I don't know you keep going it's not it wasn't made to me I was aware of it I can kind of paraphrase it what he said or somebody was asking somebody else it was one of those ad hoc investment groups done on whatsapp and somebody was saying some who got added to it and I'm saying yeah what do you think about it blah blah blah blah and I'm paraphrasing so Gary if you listen to this I'm sorry if I got your words wrong but what he said was essentially if you go out and you've done your research you figured out something you've seen that there's

money behind it why on earth would you have done that work and just give it away for free yeah yeah and I understand and respect it so and you're right it's such a simple thing it seems almost common sense if I'm going to something I don't know, the first thing I do is research it. And if I'm employed in an industry that by day to day involves me knowing certain things, research, knowing yourself, making the time, it's where the money is.

I mean, that is where the money is. So when people say, there's no money in this business, I'm saying, what business are you in? Because there may not be money for you because you can't answer somebody's question and if they and it's money right it's true if you're if you're even off by an inch and that person picks it up your credibility is shot that's it they're going to somebody else you know and i mean on gary's point refree to answer this that i mean i mean i know

sometimes i talk about stocks on twitter but never ever think that i'm bringing up a stock and my people haven't bought it already or myself that's not so that's a lesson that's not i'm not sharing a live pick on anything yeah that's that's a lesson myself and i think maybe then i have to learn recently yeah no when we talk about things we talk about it after we've made our move you have to you have to because i mean the mark is still relatively small and you can get crowded out very easily very easily i mean i credit those who are so altruistic and unselfish to do that kind of thing but i'm not gonna the funny thing is i don't see anybody who's altruistic and actually doing it i see people being out here don't seem to actually know what they're doing that's actually a doing yeah so you can talk about so if you don't do it

you don't write on Monday we talk about it today exactly exactly but if you're really doing this you're gonna you're gonna be thinking twice if we go talk about it unless of course you buy in the US market which is just massive so yeah you never have any issues that's the point thing people were people I talk about it then I have a favorite scene from billions yeah where um where the lead character is is saved yeah he's at the table with everybody he's an analyst and he's he's one managers yeah and then they're looking for plays on the market and he and he's everybody's going whatever and somebody says apple i think there's money still left in apple oh my goodness and bobby turns to him and says i paid too much

money for you to tell me to buy apple yes yeah yeah that's true that's true that's true there's something else i learned also in fine if you hear it on the news you don't have to worry about it because by the time you hit the news it's too late yes if you want to even out here you know yes I find a lot of so that's a couple we have some stocks on the market that investment advisors and fund managers love yeah and so you go to them and you want you want a fund so you want you some money, manage it for me. I can guarantee you there are five stocks that I know are going

to be in your portfolio. Carreras and what? Carreras, NCB, Sajikor, Grace. Oh, yeah. They're great dividend stocks. Not knocking any of them, right? They're actually

great dividend stocks. Carreras is a notorious dividend stock. I'm not telling people to buy it here. I don't own any Carreras and I probably won't own for a long time. But I'll be open also.

I worked at Careers. I've said that before. Yeah, me too. Yeah, that's actually where I met Ran. Ran and I met at Careers. We were in 07. 07. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Way back. Way, way, way back. Most people don't even know that. Yeah, believe me. But really don't know. It's crazy. It's strange. They never know that happened.

The white Roman monster. But yeah. yeah I find it to be something that originally obviously was started with sense because those companies are in this room for decades and it has morphed into laziness am i still you telling people to invest for dividends if you truly if your job is to find me dividends you shouldn't be thinking boy i also missed mpc absolutely right or you should be like us kicking ourselves like yo because i don't care about dividends but i i'm not going to say no to a nine or ten percent dividend yeah i go for the money and it's interim by the way yeah that is that is the thing yeah that's the thing yeah let me bring the regular people in

interim means that is not the final dividend for the year it may or may not be but interim usually means that they're just paying one and there's more that they can pay later on this is a big dividend usually if you have a big dividend like this is usually a special dividend or something you don't have this in the middle of the year just saying oh let's let's pay you this unless you're having some rest of your 10 on your money yeah something is happening and if we think mpc guys here you're getting the free advice we need around every week if you if you think mpc is because i do think it's like another wigton so it's going to constantly work unless we decide to stop using electricity yeah and this is the best kind of electricity is coming from the Sun right yeah then find

though by it but if you really think that it's going to move and you really think that's going to pay out something and it's being on something this big as I intern dividend why are they going to pay over for the year done or the year done and go finally they want him good maybe I could one person I said on the cake there you go yeah but I'm known for bringing us on the tangents i'll bring us back the tangent that we started on was that a lot of the industry has been lazy yeah and i have been opening saying that i respect ryan because he isn't as wild as me in terms of going and he can't be because he manages bigger money and you can't be wild with people's money but there has been some laziness

still with those people who have managed people's money and i rate ryan because he's not like that he finds the money so you're not gonna get maybe let me not talk for your money so maybe ryan ryan is not going to give you 100 next month but if you have 20 million and you don't know this guy learn let me let's say right because and i want to tack on a point read this dividends thing because if somebody somebody bought NCB at 30, their dividend yield now is 12%. Yeah, big up Michael Leach. Without doing a thing. Well, that's the problem.

I hear people at 200 still proclaiming, oh, NCB dividends, and other times not even the dividend. I hear they thought that, oh, NCB was at 30 one time. It's at 200 now. Don't make it leave you because, boy, they show you the graph and show you the graph. It went up. So the rest of it, there's more to it. Shape magic.

It's crazy. I don't think that's a good reason to buy NCB. There are good reasons to buy NCB. I don't think that's one of them. And that's the finishing part. When we were buying at 30, we were saying to people that listen this is a stock if all goes according to as it should it's gonna be at five six hundred dollars in x time in fact we even earmarked it at 10 us dollars by the time they go on the new york market assuming they do yeah one can never know if they're gonna happen but one cannot expect them to tell you what's

gonna happen either right yeah but you know what they tell you, right? You make your guesses though, right? Yeah, and they show you. They show you in their actions. Cause, I mean, people are like talking about how the, what's this, sorry, what was the ex CEO of NCB? Cause he's no longer- Oh, Adam Young? No, no.

He's still group, he's a starter team. Oh, Patrick Hilton. Patrick Hilton, yeah, yeah, yeah. So that exact move, people are like, oh, it looks like a move, blah, blah, blah. But if you pay attention to international companies, all they've done is created a multinational structure. Absolutely. Which is what you do if you want to be a multinational.

It's funny because NCB has been showing you we want a multinational structure for the longest while now. They've been very clear. It has been telegraphed. Yeah. We saw them go into Bermuda. They've bought a regional entity that they own 62 percent of yeah that has they're in almost all the caribbean territories they sponsored the monaco diamond league entrancing capital man yes this is that was telling you yeah that was business that's

trying there's maybe four people in jamaica watch watch it they're not trying to confine themselves to they're not confining themselves to this region at all at all you know i mean they're in cayman yeah right and i mean there's no real capital market so to speak in terms of stock marketing in a territory but jamaica but still we do know that as night follows a day it will follow elsewhere it's a matter matter of whenever there's a tipping point here. Yes. So they are best positioned, and we've heard reports, sorry, of them trying to go into Damrep and other places.

So I know, and so they are best positioned in my mind to take advantage of an opportunity that may come up. What's that opportunity? Nobody knows. No, I don't like that. You sound like you know something. to take advantage of an opportunity that may come up. What's that opportunity? Nobody knows. But somebody who- No, I don't like that. You sound like you know something. Somebody who buy, I don't know anything.

But somebody who bought at 30 gets dividends at 12%. No, no, the question is, did they buy substantially at 30? Ah, that is true. Or did they buy with money that they would probably use on a cell phone and just throw it at the market? A small buy. Or did they use money that they would have used to buy a small house? Because they probably had both in them.

So you have people who have money to buy a small house, but they buy a cell phone. They invest a cell phone. Yeah, that's true. But a person who invested and bought a small house. So I can tell you recently we were buying heavily at 30 and 40.

We sold half at 215 just based on where we would foresee things going for the next year. But nevertheless, that is still 500% plus. What we sold half for is much more

than the initial investment. Yup. Yeah. It's significantly more. A large house. You know what I mean? You sell half and... Yeah, I already said it.

No, you sell half. You sell half and... Because we diversify. Exactly. Most of the money I invested, I have more than that in it, even though I sold half. That's crazy. In three and a half years.

Yeah. That's something me and Randy do all the time. Okay, sell half and... You don't make them rush for it. Oh, sorry. though I sold half. That's crazy. In three and a half years. Yeah. That's something me and Randy do all the time. Okay, sell half. You don't make them rush for it. Three and a half. Call it four years

if you're going to be generous. Nobody's making that kind of money in four years. Exactly. Anywhere else outside of the top level guys. Even the top level guys

aren't making that kind of money because they don't need to. They can make 5% on 5 billion. But, you know, that's crazy. billion but all of us are trying to emerge we want to be fine exactly when you find them did really

put something meaningful to you behind it mm-hmm all right well let me let me let's have good segue unless you want something about your life Christian married I've been in this what doing this I'd say nine years. No kids, have a brother. No two brothers, sister. I mean, father not with us anymore. Mom's still kicking. I don't know what else. I mean, I love sports. I love investing in general. I love business. I don't know what else to share. I'm in politics. I'm G2K vice president. I wish you had told me that before, comrade. So actually, well, I probably don't want to indicate when this is being filmed,

but there's a lot of activity going on. No, man, we can tell people. So we are recording this on the day of the PNP internal election. Yeah, presidential race. Peter versus Peter. One PNP versus Rise United. So a lot of us are keenly watching what's going on i mean i personally think peter will win i think so i think that's a good shot no well the peter stayed there

for another year plus let's see right but wow wow so i was just gonna play on the words because they both named people yeah i know i know yeah but no but no you said that wow what's the stop another challenge who knows wow who knows that's not a political show but it's not yeah i tried to keep her from the parties because nobody yeah people want that but it doesn't help anybody really on this show of this however there is some interest there because one peter bunting is uh associated with an investment bank local, which is a listed company and it has done well for itself. I have a cool story Peter Bunting. Go ahead, hit us.

So I remember 05 when I went to DB&G for an interview, I was like 22, 22. Yeah, I went for an interview and never got a job. But I remember, but for like those of us at that age, she was like a hero. You know, I was like, you know, young, young, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Make some money, yeah, in finance, yeah. Sell to school, show up, yeah, yeah, yeah. So at this time you're like seeing history unfolding

because remember for all of us who were teenagers in the 90s or young teenagers, because you know, we'd have been too young to remember FinSec and businesses going on there and all of us who were teenagers in the 90s or young teenagers because you know we'd have been too young to remember fin sac and businesses going on there and all of that so anyway so i saw when i was walking out with the marketing manager and the operations manager by the way the marketing manager is actually very helpful in my life that's carrie stimson she had jmab very very stimson yeah very very very very helpful you know big up carry on stims because anytime i say anything about jm and b online my phone ring is her and she yeah man you can't you

want to fix it you can't expect to talk to you she knows how to manage the big up carry on yeah i know kerry was gave me priceless feedback after and was very helpful but anyway so i'm walking out so peter bunting walks out of his office when i'm walking past so i almost have like the star struck moment when that's when his glasses on his nose and he's like how are you doing i'm peter bunting walks out of his office when i'm walking past so i almost have like the star struck moment when that's when his glasses on his nose and he's like how are you doing i'm peter bunting and sam ryan strong has walked out and i never forgot that moment yeah so shout out to peter good luck later you know yeah good work yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah what a line to let me follow um we got people yeah you know what i give i give analysts a hard time for not i always say you know they should go give you a view give a sensible view tell why you have your view if you

get it wrong that's fine because you get an opportunity to improve so let me do that for this in a political forum where my personal official things i think it's better for Jamaica. Hmm, wow. We might have to edit this, but. I think it's better for Jamaica if Peter Bunting wins, because one, I don't think a government should ever be comfortable. And I think the image that Peter Bunting has, I personally am happy to hear him say things like, he's stepping away, he's bringing his party, if he wins,

away from democratic socialism and more towards a more realistic, modern sort of thing where we have to admit, it's really hard to pretend that things aren't better in Jamaica now. We are sitting on a podcast talking about the stock exchange. Yeah.

And none of us are 40. Sure. Yeah. None of us, yeah. And we're comfortably talking about millions, right? That is, that is that is that you had to see that things are bad I don't know about BAM in the back ground there but none of us I think have white parents without code ever come

from the heavy rich long time so we're making it know ourselves I think things are better I think it's saying is I think it's better for Peter wanting to win because of where he will go and the pressure that it puts on the current government the andrew holmes government because i want pressure on the government because i want things to be best i want the best for all of us so i'm i am thinking it's best for us and i will admit my bias because peter phillips closed the junior stock exchange i will never forgive him for that i will never forgive him for that i'll never forgive him for that yeah that's unforgivable i've said that that publicly. I think the outcome is what it is.

I think there will be benefits whomever wins, and there will be drawbacks whomever wins. I think for persons such as ourselves, though we may have our own convictions, whatever they may be, the primary concern is will Jamaica benefit? Which is all I care about. Exactly.

Once Jamaica benefits, then all else is second so for me i'm just a casual observer as i said i wish them all the best you know if i don't have a horse in the race as i said i don't have a peter phillips store so by that account alone one can draw inferences but when we were teenagers in the 90s he was still in politics and whatever so yeah but i mean as i said as a somebody in my industry i have nothing but respect for peter bunting so that can go on record yeah well straight same here um i'm fine with that let's leave the politics from there so let me jump straight into it well it's a good segue the jamaica economy uh i mean what you think about it now what do you think where we are what's the outlook on it and

business generally right well I think I think so I I find myself outside my house a lot these days and so I've been working I mean I've had to come to realize that there are people who are full-blooded adults who have not been working for 15 years i've been working but in the time i've been working 10 years ago for argument's sake or 12 years ago i would not be in an uncorked on a monday night you know why why not there's no encore that is so true you know what i mean no jungles that's so there's no i mean yesones was there, but you were few and far between in terms of places you could go. Any any developed country you go to the after work scene is bustling. That is true. That is true. And the fact that now when you're in, you can be in Kingston, you can go to Uncork tonight, you can go to Django's one of a night, you can go to on court tonight you can be jangles one of a night you can go red bones you can go Pegasus and there's

several other places I have all right they're all packed yeah if I come at T point and go one better cuz this is nice people think always go up tone guys I'm saying whatever them did but we'll go even better actually please all the time when last is here empty KFC I mean is that a party key every single night every KFC pack. Every single night. At Friday, it was on KFC. Oh man, they try. Friday's ridiculous.

When last you see an empty Juicy? All right. Long time. Yeah, man. Things are really bad, huh? Damn, it's awful. Things are really rough. It's awful. But I say, so anecdotally,

we are seeing people using more. Well, at first, they're having more disposable income in hand. And then using more well first having more disposable income in hand and in using more of it they've been a persons are less worried know about well will I be able to buy lunch next week you know I'm saying so you're not really feeling that pessimism and we're too far down the road for that to change. I mean, as I said, one of those establishments I named just opened. Django's. Django's. Just opened and it's always full.

That is true. It's always one. It's not the same people going to all of these places. So when I'm on the ground, I'm looking at the economy and I'm talking uptown, downtown, wherever you go, things are bustling. Mm hmm. Which says, which says a lot to me. And we were speaking

earlier about the growth in investing public yeah it's massive how much an ipo would get before and how it's getting now yes so and you find that all levels uptown downtown the small man taking thousand dollar and going invest of course yeah man um two points i'll make the first one because i know bam was signaling to me guys if you're hearing the thunder in the background i think one of the peters i'm drawing on him pause it's a rainy day that we're recording so if you're hearing the thunder that's why it is you know that's our god just underscoring our point god it's cool there always the second point i wanted to make though i forgot the point because that god point was what what had you said just now before no just in terms of number of establishments

jango's being very busy and just opening and being viable. And it's not the same people. And it's uptown, downtown, it's everywhere. In fact, I go to the country a lot. And even in the country, I mean, it's not as bustling as Kingston, but things happening same here. Things happening. What will happen, and I think many times when people speak about economies,

I'm not an economist, so I'm not going to speak about like fiscal policy and monetary policy and you know there are people much more qualified than me to speak about that big up doctor king yeah right big up doctor king twitter twitter king so but you know when you when we see things like infrastructure becoming a subject of like government policy, as far as investments and dedicating capital towards, what inevitably happens, right? We had the highway to Ocho Rios. Sure. I mean, I remember when it was just open, I went to Ocho Rios for lunch to drive back.

Before that highway, there's no way, I went to Scotch's by the way, there's no way i went to scotches by the way there's no way i would have made that drive as much as i love my wife on a casual afternoon to go out there and come back on a sunday yeah but now it's less like 45 down it's a nice little drive 45 back yeah think about that for working i can leave kingston and work in ot much easier than i couldn't do it before i can't do it no i used to spend two hours going from Spanish Town to Kingston. Oh, yes. Just for school.

Just for school. I was happy. When I started working, when Ryan and I started working our careers, Kairos was in Spanish Town. So that was a nice little... That was a nice little... 20, 25 minute breeze out.

Yeah. No traffic. It was one straight road. But imagine that. 20, 25 minutes and it was an easy ride and if we're going to if we're going to if we're going now to Ochi it's just 20 minutes more than that in 2019 Oh gee oh far far isn't that crazy crazy it's crazy to me so I feel as though

those things really speak up on economy that's developing in a serious way ah it's not stagnant yeah yeah man you have a capital market now that is able to facilitate things so when you hear trans jamaica may list um and we know what that means will list that's monumental you know that is major because no yes people will complain about the highway toll as usual but then they're going to be like wait highway dividends dividends and okay they're charging more so i'm earning more yo let me let me carry it even better let me carry it down to the people two things for the people listening who might not know trans jamaica is a tall people if you haven't heard it there's a story out there in the green i'll put something in the show notes just pretty much saying that

the toll is looking to this that's the portmore maypin arm of the tool so not the not the o3 arm of the tool right the second point i want to make is this so i remember when that tool came right and we used to hear the same thing your government has sellout jamaica we're not even we're very very 2019 in our lifetime i get a chance to own back that thing that i heard nah bro yeah so sell out and sell back. Right? And you know we're going to make money off it because it's ours. Even if it's bad, it's ours.

And we get to own it. I believe so, yes. We win two ways. We as investing public win by owning and then Jamaica gets a piece of that. There we go. There we go. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Things really have changed.

I think the economy is looking stronger every day, and that pushes us straight into the second point I wanted to ask, right, about my favorite point is, we'll touch on the market later, so bull versus bear. Yeah, I know, right. I have gotten some heat in some quarters

for saying that. Yeah, I have to admit, if you want to speak just in terms of what the textbook says, Jamaica is in a bull market. Yes. All right. If you want to speak in practical, real terms, I don't think Jamaica is in a bull market yet. And I'll say why so I can catch a heat and you guys hear my point, right? And for you who don't know, bull market just means that a lot of stocks are rising, companies are getting bigger.

What Ryan was saying earlier about we are not at us we're growing we were pushed down for so long we're now growing yep i don't think we're a bear mark i don't think we're in a bull market because i think of it like a child if you see a child at four years old and you see the same child when he's 10 you don't think wow you've had a really big growth spurt, but then you kind of expect it to go. I don't think that you're, I don't think you've got, I don't say, yo, you've gotten stronger, although you have, but you're just a child, you're growing. Now if I see my brother when he's 23,

and I'm scrawny, and he's 23, I see him again when he's 26, and I buff up when he goes to the gym, you say, yo, you have gotten stronger. That note to me is what I call a true bullman because you're an adult, you're fully formed, and, you have gotten stronger. That note to me is what I call a true bull market because you're an adult, you're fully formed and then you started working

on yourself to get better. In the same way, bringing it back to the market, I don't think we're in a true bull market because we're not fully formed yet. Correct. Holy,

but the toll just listing. America can't have a bull market because almost everything over there listed. Listing is normal. They have a fully formed market and when that fully formed market performs or overperforms, then it's bull.

But we don't reach out. We're just a 10-year-old. We're just growing still. So we can't say, yes, we're growing. Yes, we're growing. It looks like a bull market. It's not a real bull market. We didn't even start flexing muscles yet.

We think we'll just start export. Yep. I mean, I don't know if you have anything to to contribute to no most i can say is other day i had a conversation with my mother's friend oh you're investing than i am i'm talking and then he said he wants to talk to me about investing so he was saying so i'm here for the short term call not i'm not in this investing in this market for long because just other day it was eight i know it's at 50. talking about the index there you don't think something wrong with that something happened soon i'm like it's completely fine if you look at actual

companies in market look at the market it's fine we just you've seen the value that was not that was not apparent at the time because before not much companies were listed we started getting more listings now things are adding to the index so you see that big jump it's not necessary that something happened and it's gone far beyond what it should be so that's my two cents i mean let me tell you so when i was in the industry from from from like early days when you so i've always not always but maybe a year in the start to look at the u.s market two years in you'd have companies valid at 20 times earnings 25 times earnings pe of 20 25 20 25. every michael.com if you don't understand you contrasted with jamaica at that time you had ncb trading at four times earnings no yeah yeah red stripe same you know in that

range I mean the market PE average was seven to nine times earnings really seven to nine times earnings the index value the all Jamaica composite was 80 odd thousand Wow now even amidst of that you had companies making money that's why I said to people bull and bear at that's fair but nothing they might tend to rhyme but the thing is you have a at the time you had a lascelles rea nevio that was a hundred dollars or ninety odd dollars that was bought out for seven hundred in six years but i've heard stories of people saying they were buying last sales at under ten dollars chris berry included

bought out at 700 maybe i made a ton of money from that you know yeah the point i'm making though is that even in the midst of depressed markets, people are making money. However, for me to believe some things are bull market, it would have to be at a normal, at ground zero. As of right now, well, now I think Jamaica's market is fairly valid. So let's just say it has to be fairly valid. At a PE average of seven times, it's undervalued. Severely.

When your biggest bank was trading at four to five times earnings, you're undergrown. You're below. So what I've heard people say that I agree with is that what we would have seen from about 2015, which was predicated, lest we all forget on the red stripe buyout, but the market grew 50% in 12 weeks as a result of that

buyout because red strippers bought to the valuation of 27 times really yes and that is what lifted the market the numbers show it from october 2015 to december the agi grew or the agci grew 53 percent and that's the all jamaica composite that he's talking about so just just for context like today the end of we're looking at the the end of the week of that content in september six that same index is now the main market index is are you answer the cup what kind of combine the junior didn't exist that much uh the all not the way which one you want jamaica comes in all jamaica or the combined no all jamaica all right all jamaica index is at 571 thousand and seventy four no back then it was 80 or a thousand okay not 2015 but going before that but the point is that the i view what has happened

as a correction um upwardwards. Upward correction. Yeah, last I mentioned, I get in trouble on Twitter. So you say that. Correction, upwards. I am not sure. So if something is, if you have an economy that has rampant devaluation, double-digit inflation, and depressed capital markets, and some measure of capital flight, flat FDIs. You're not going to, you don't, in my opinion, have the, you don't have a premise on which in my view to say that you're fairly valid or anything.

I mean, your economic conditions are not conducive to investor participation, which is why people were flocking to Barbados and Trinidad. Yes. I take another point, though. In the midst of all of that, Jamaica's GDP per capita was 6,000 US. I asked my team to run some numbers last week. Jamaica's GDP is still around 6,000. It could be as high as 7.

Trinidad is 14. I think Barbados is 16. Right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. So then it says to me that well okay fine markets have done well people have made money but we still don't have the spending power of our neighbors exactly in the broader sense not yet not yet so we still have a long way to go before people start saying that you know we've tapped out people now should be looking and saying all right what's the new opportunity what's undervalued what should i be trying to buy and get whole love and hold for three years exactly or even more only for six months but the you know we would see the valley realize over time what is that thing what would benefit from the inevitable

growth but you know the problem with that is you have on you have to understand business you have to understand you have to truly understand business from a common sense perspective absolutely yeah and anybody listen to this I think boy means he I have maybe a a phd you do not if you can run a stall and sell bubble gum if you sell bubble gum in high school if you just burn cd and sell if you used to sell sweetie to your classmates you have enough sense to understand how to find a good winner because you don't need to have a phd to know that if you see when i went to janga's i went to janga's the other day just passed by every single table had a bottle of water double ATA on it I don't

need a PhD to know that I mean that we think is selling people at work something that they weren't buying three months ago absolutely yeah yeah so I don't need I don't MBA to know so maybe if you are an expert you can go a little deeper you can start estimating a little deeper but if you want estimate like I'm a boy everybody I drink more water and the more bar open the more people drink rum smoke cigarette drink water you can invest against those things easily you can invest well right now you can visit i'm not telling people to buy carreras but you can invest against that if you want you can invest against water over a two three year run unless you think people are going to stop drinking water in two to three years nope without that without that or or will more people stop coming to jamaica and buy water what exactly right

it just it's logical to me so i look on and i'm saying it's a cool phrase to catch on to but definitely that's that's that's the problem it's cool to say right but when people like us been investing for all these years and when things were not as they are no exactly how we were making money then money so why am i gonna really entertain that kind of dialogue and people telling me with authority to i can't buy it no you can be buying companies at a pe of 20 and reasonably be comfortable money talk some money talk here signals yes right now I think he's hitting a PE three I think you hear the man talking about some real money talk I think I threw two million dollars in it at 20. yeah perfectly fine in my view and i wouldn't do that two years ago i'd have looked i'd have looked low but i perfectly fine during it right because it means i don't think they're

going to stop making money anytime soon yeah of course not yeah because you know what they're doing they're funding other businesses and other businesses are just growing what are other businesses complaining about how we can't go to the bank and make money, but Cygnus will give us money. But that's a joke. No, and this again shows where the economy is going. So what Cygnus has done has lowered the bar for companies

to get capital in hand, right? Yes. Because now you don't need to have a building that's worth $50 million to borrow 10. Now they'll say to you, give us your receivables mm-hmm or we will buy your stock so you need money to fill an in a container to bring it to Jamaica they'll buy the container warehouse it and sell

you at 18 percent higher or whatever it is yeah that's a big money on it give me a cut a profit I'm gonna do it for you yeah you keep your business running because i want your business to run yeah i give you i gotta add to your point again see that's how a little protection built into because let's say you screw up yeah things don't work you can't pay the bill it's all right just convert it to shares let me help you run this call that's it simple just like that so again now the the barrier to entry is much lower mm-hmm so you can be you see many times you talk to people in business and they be like yo you really listen to their stories they'll set you you know it's really man X do a thing

and help me like him take a chance and like him lend the money and never charged my interest for six months mmm and that's helped me fill my first big order and never looked back yeah yeah what singles is doing is now reducing the need for companies to go to a man x so to speak and i tell you this now there was a release i don't know if you saw it in my email from ncb that was saying that bigger brand they're now gonna start doing receivables back lending yes well all right you touch a whole heap of points let me explain the short notes i've never spoken about that deliberately don't tweet about it if i say public so ryan has done an email what do you tell me about that email when you're

starting it i want to say all night like it's like 2010 years around when i got in the business i've been doing it since i feel like your career could we had this conversation in person showed me and I was like yo keep doing this yeah and he has kept doing it since then so it's a private email list that you go they're going to kill you know to go on it if you have to ask to go on it you probably not going to get put on it but it is a word I tell you is a worthy email like you send out every and it is guys I can't play it up i can't play it on it's a really good email he's done it for years it's on my weekly read list any week passes i don't read it monday morning come i take the time i go out and read so it's a sense so thank you for that

because he keeps he keeps he keeps me on point i've always thought there's money in it and he's found the money there um the second point you mentioned though you say the first time you mentioned um receivables yes the receivables finance it i didn't even touch it too hard i'm happy that nc is going into it when you see these guys now looking at it rule of thumb yeah if you see marketing around the idea the idea isn't new rule of thumb absolutely you hear all these banks coming together and saying we're now going to look at the sme but it it's too late they've been looking at SME for about the last five years absolutely don't be fooled this noise marketing to make the slow guys try and catch up yeah and CB don't play catch up so I want to

enter a market they enter market so if you are here in a boy receivers financing no you're thinking of going into it you have a lot of money or be very brave that you're going to need one of those two things are mixture of both yep so yeah it it is it is a well-established thing they already know the SMEs you the money they've been giving SMEs some money and as you said signals change the entire game around SMEs because no it's just like the JSC I don't have to ask you for the money you don't want give me I can get it cheaper elsewhere somebody else will give me it alright so in the event that in event that you do sorry guys that I is trying

to give you a holy for trouble oh you show me the soda day yeah we're going to edit we'll keep going what the point is that you're right ncb has changed the game yes completely yes and everybody else is playing catch up and the fact that they're playing catch up means that it's very competitive yes win win for the people you have a business you have a good idea right now you have no excuse if you have a good idea you can put it together all you need to do is have a good idea have good numbers you do need structure this is not this isn't a lot of things you need good structure you need to have your books in order but once you have that in there the only way you're not getting money is either you're either lying scammy or you're

reading out the books in order yeah and I think I think many times people go to the wrong so you go to the wrong river right so for instance i mean i think smes commercial banks should should be helpful but if we're very honest there needs to be something else to bridge that gap because technically well which is why when i i kind of said what they said which is why i think you kind of have some brokerage houses connected to banks lending to smaller entities right now because it may not always suit a big bank with an expensive management team or whatever to necessarily be dealing with smaller loans as controversial as that may be but then also it also shows how our

startup at the time like seeing us credit which is just a small part of a stimulus group yes could then focus on lending to smaller entities in in that sense of things and as and it will come you have the accesses and all of the models that have helped in that respect but what it says in general though is that there is no more capital floating around to help smaller businesses rise and grow and I cannot be a buddy can't be I cannot be a but I'll say I'll say less nicely what I think Ryan touched on earlier it is not necessarily the business of a big commercial bank to learn a small man money for his business not the risk profile is different they are in an ID law before you guys come for me,

in an ideal world, like, all right, forget ideal world. In America, you just start up a little small thing, Bank of America isn't lending you the money. But your small corner bank will lend you money. Your broker will lend you the money. If you have a good little relationship with your little bank branch, they will lend you the money. Your credit union will lend you the money.

You'll have specific little institutions just set up just to lend small businesses money. But you can't necessarily look for a Bank of america to do it bank of america is very much in line in the jamaican context with an ncb the fact that ncb actually helps so many small businesses is a huge deal yeah a major major deal and then in doing it what they're doing is you see they're creating moguls yeah they really are of course because we would have seen what's the name of that show capital quest yes yes you know that would have shined you know did some produced by the limners and birds the lab yes yeah big up big up big up kb yeah so those kind

of initiatives speak in great detail about i mean they're focused we're not just talking about ncb but the broader thing is the economy now there's more access are we perfect no but we're working and we're getting there and it's important that we don't give a 10 years of a costing to the present to the present yes and the other thing I'll also I didn't know that a lot of people forget is that unlike other jurisdictions where there is no exit mechanism we have a we have a almost perfect exit mechanism in a junior market no so all you really need as an investor is a business to actually perform that can be listed and that's it easily you're liquid so you can get out if you want that's true

that's true you're not a carib countries, you don't have that luxury. That's true. Let me break it down for the people who are not into finance. All he's saying is pretty much is if you have a business, let's say you need $3 million for your business, right? You have the $3 million because you want to buy some equipment. You think you're going to make some money from it. Once you get that $3 million from the bank and you buy the equipment and you get the

first contract and it starts, you don't even have to pay back the three million you can list your company on the stock exchange for three million it's just a random example but for three million dollars and the three you can list it on the second for nine million dollars take three out of the nine million and pay back ncb and it'll be perfectly fine it's okay it's normal for companies to list and say part of why they're listing is to pay off a loan pay off that it's perfectly sensible we really do have a great thing in the junior stock exchange that allows us to that so you can't really don't that's i realized i said it to you that's the thing i have a problem with people are using 1997 costing for 2019 situation and it's it's diametrically different yeah it really really

really is yeah i i i cannot honestly say that the banks aren't helping small businesses now they are yeah i mean some small businesses cost and they have their reasons for doing it but i when i hear people cause i kind of leave myself because they're not going to cost me to you know so yeah yeah yeah you know but i think you also have some small businesses that don't service their loans right true true nobody talks about that true nobody talks about that and you know i'm gonna say straight i do not know a small business of course maybe i've not seen a whole lot sure i do not know a small business that has its books in order and has not been able to access

credit same what i know is some managers don't have their books in order and has not been able to access credit same what i know is some managers don't have their books in order and think that the bank is going to lend you anyway the bank can't be irresponsible banks are business yes i mean technically the bank has borrowed money from people to lend to others exactly they have to be responsible with it because they're paying us interest it may not be a lot but they're a pain in your point six four percent multiply that by billions it's still tired because they have staff they have utilities they have property tax asset tax i was yeah yeah they have expenses too not because i'm part of a group that has a bank but it's just thinking of somebody who is an investor in banks but that's true too yeah i mean i don't want to go to agm and have to be asking

patrick well what happened to this billion dollar loans that disappeared because 100 000 small businesses not using the money right now we're being benevolent that's a billion dollars of our profits gone exactly and he couldn't say well you know we thought it was try to help jamaica i mean come on let's balance the company said you know um shareholders should look at the general benefit to the jamaican economy hey come on guys like you know like you when when when somebody loses their job because of that you're gonna take money out your pocket to take care of them and you don't know them exactly yeah exactly i'm like let's just dial it back and let's just look through the eyes of rationality yeah in fact you know what let me drag let me drag right into some trouble because you thought so you thought so many things i mentioned i thought so many things i mentioned recently so i mean i go on

them random tweet out of this say um we do need banks to lend smes more. So I said, you know, one of the best ways is just to pay them. And by pay, I mean in a financial way, the government shouldn't take up the money, but when the government gives a tax break, they are literally giving up money. So on a macro scale, it's just like as with the paying.

I think the government should maybe give financial institutions who have to pay that asset tax a little break on the asset tax, but tag that break so you can get, so let's say I'll give you a 5% to pay that asset tax a little break on the asset tax but tag that break so you can get so let's say i'll give you a five percent break on your asset tax if you raise the amount of companies that you give loans to by 15 percent or something like that you get me now i got a lot of backlash for it because the thing everybody think boy i'm gonna raise it and then they're gonna start lose money and i'm wondering why would they lose money why would they suddenly start to give people who aren't credit worthy

credit just to get a tax break remember at the end of the day they're still half a turnaround at answer to us you know moreover with ifrs9 now they can't even wait and just don't recognize it them have to recognize bad debt very very quickly so they're going to still be what we're going to do you know what i think is going to happen they're going to put a lot more energy into corporate financial literacy you have a small business here's how you have to learn how to do your books here's a little course to put your thing together i want you have that you should know they're doing it now maybe they have the sme sme they're working with branson there was an sme workshop place where they send out people

and you go and you rise with the business and you start out, help them start out their books and get them to a point where they can get a loan from JMNB. And I expect that once, you know how it go already, once they start doing it,

somebody's going to start doing it because JMNB is just big enough to be annoying. Or maybe somebody else doing it already and JMNB is catching on. I'm sure people are doing it because, you know what? Big up Simonon we went to stocks on the rocks then and one of the things i tweeted also that one of the things that's impressive about seeing simon was that he said like when he asks questions on twitter i really don't know right yeah i'm not like simon a lot

of times when i ask i don't do the research already yeah i ask a question so i don't ask him blindly although sometimes i do act like i'm blind to it um this is one of those cases i'm not when i ask i don't do the research already yeah i asked a question so i had that asking blindly although sometimes i do act like i'm blind to it um this is one of those cases i'm not dumb i know what i'm saying it wasn't it didn't come out of nowhere so but i was very surprised at the backlash that i got that's why i made a follow-up tweet although it wasn't linked to it um obviously but to say that if artlisha had tried to do the junior stock exchange no every single person would detail to him why it don't make sense and why it can't work but that's happened you know i know it happened i know i know it happened but i am wondering how he had the cause he took

balls to push it through against all of the people saying no it can't work no it was it was quite an accomplishment that he and his team pulled off full credit to them. It was. It has unlocked a lot of equity in this country. It's made millionaires unlock more taxes. Absolutely. Imagine that. In 10 years, what has contributed to our tax break?

Tax base. Like that in 10 years. Nothing. Can anybody tell me? Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. And I say that with the bias of somebody not in politics somebody in the industry boy you know that's that's that is what and there are people and you know who who share the pmp sympathies who have come out and said they do not support the winding up of the tax of the junior stock exchange at the time well I am open about my bias in that it was shut

down it was a mistake that was a mistake and I'm glad that good sense eventually prevail reveal yeah we were saying something though that I wanted to touch on I don't know if it was jamming be I don't think of Jamie it was something else we would literally were just talking oh the asset tax by the way you know the minister of finance follows you right but listen then hold on let me big up my mp yeah let me pick up my mp the current minister of finance yeah i i rate you as a black royalty yeah but but yeah i i have so much respect and here's why i have the respect guys i know i know with jamaica we tend to be very silly i would go oh it must be a labor i think no no no here's what

i respect for him that guy was a corporate exec in a very very very very very well paid job very very very very very well compensated i won't go into my history you wanted your research look up epley yeah very very very well compensated and that man chose to walk away from that and go into a stupidly senseless job of stress stress stress being the minister of finance for a country that is under over 100 percent debt to gdp and he decided to take that on i rate anybody with that and what he has brought to the role in a little time the man has been there it has been amazing the boj is on the path although i know he didn't start it but he has continued it he's on the path to moving out the junior market is doing well the man give us tax breaks that we never see before weak son yeah my now big him up yeah we we've done yeah and i have more coming more coming i

hate this i don't want to say the wrong thing because here i got settings i'm not supposed to say but i think it has been mentioned publicly jamaica mortgage bank is good i hear people talking about obviously the trans-jamaica highway i see we're acting like we have a finance director now. Absolutely. Handling our finance. I am proud of that. I rate him for that. Absolutely.

And thank you and congrats. And I hope I tweet somebody too much. And if you screw up, I will be the first person to say. Heavy lies are crowned. No bites. Heavy lies are crowned. Yeah, man.

No question. I mean, we're talking about an eminent accomplished individual so listen the end of the day pngp good people getting involved i have no no complaints yeah man i respect that bring something to the table it's all selfless listen i mean there's no real gain in politics once you're doing it right anyway so you know you always have to applaud persons who leave well-paid occupations to do that to then come and serve the country yeah in fact let me let me let me not be biased i had to pick up the new boj governor absolutely yeah for stepping away

from leading sagic or a group yeah yeah another well-paid highly influential position and instead choosing to go into a high stress job which is BoJ governor yeah yeah a lot of people don't know that that mr. Biles actually was chairman of Red Stripe and a pretty decent shareholder mmm that's public at the time of the bio so he was I think chairman for 15 years so they're about 13 to 15 years and then within the surgical group also a strong share one three in this early never had that only has shares in that but he was chairman up to any left and in one three it's a recent development in the last year and a half so no I mean as I said when you

see persons of that quality quality getting involved in the public sector in whatever capacity it's to be applauded because that whole sense of advocacy and a whole sense of country above self to an extent has somewhat been lost I think on our generation so no I think persons like us should get involved where we can but why I hear you know what I mean it's money first we can do it we can do a lot in our own way so yeah and oh i need to applaud you guys for what you're doing with education because of financial literacy because that is my view one of the things that has been missing for some time and the fact that you're bringing knowledge to the populace is to be applauded so thank you for that time and the fact that you're bringing knowledge to the populace is to be applauded so

thank you for that sir and the same to you too because you have been doing um one thing i've always said is how often inaccessible the world of finances i wrote in my very first observer column i called it the thieves can't which is a little i think a thing here I know see and see a NT but it has an old meaning I think what is is in in Britain and in Europe thieves use amateur language that they spoke amongst each other so you would know so pick pockets in a crow they can signal each other I can do a little language and nobody would know I don't want to say finance or thieves or not but in in the same way I find the world of Finance buttonholes itself because we use a language in

finance that alienates a public sure and so one of the things I've been adamant about is bringing the public in and I find that that is something is passionate to me because I can't figure out why I do it I don't do it for the money it is stressful I don't want nobody I can trade without talking to anybody absolutely I choose to do it and I ask them for know but I can't trade without talking to anybody absolutely I choose to do it and I ask them for a time I boys just up it's a passion I can't drop it and I want people to get better you're not in sweet to me like I didn't I didn't show it I keep her and I should do add to it

the greatest games I receive are people who say yo never know not last year October read your blog follow your tweets trust you like a bit and try like a thing hundred grand I even tell tell some of the big stories. I wanna tell the realistic stories. 100 grand is 150 grand now. You know what an extra 50 grand mean to a man when 50 grand is a monthly pay? He might have three months pay now

and he invest two months pay. I feel even better, girl, say, yo, I knew nothing. And me and my friend, we follow you, we follow it up and we try we try what you're saying and we'll put in 100 grand each and now we have 200 grand yeah i mean listen i for me it was so i don't really take on after new clients but a friend used to message me and you know if anybody messaged me and asked for information i have no issue sharing and said to me you know what should I do and he was just messing me ever so often so I tell him you know not even remembering what I told him mm-hmm

so last week I saw him at football and he said to me boy he he he had he was on his face he had a hundred thousand dollars and him say oh I'm just going to try it cuz some other things on the work though and like he was properly depressed and he said he has 600,000 no and I saved his life I was like reggie I don't know that's kind of big things people tell me brother yeah I don't see I won't touch me not any is that yo I just you know that's why I express my gratitude in some way you know I mean I say oh your store is enough that's made my year you know what I mean that's made my year that's why I do it yeah I think about it then I tell myself start because you start following me yeah yeah that blows my mind everybody around me well everybody around me was telling me

yo start my godfather he's in investing he made a lot of money out of it he said you want to start whatever whatever friend chadwick he was the other night start i took my scholarship money and i invest in and i don't know what to do you do this in school so you maybe know what to do i never know anything for the randy and randy randy what he gave me more than anything was direction so this way i look for and here I am now. Wow, that's big. Yeah, it's just the thinking. That's all I try to put in here, just the thinking, which is I don't try to alienate people. I don't want to go too hard on numbers.

For the people watching, let me drop a little shade. I'm not stupid, no. I only act like I'm stupid. I know the complicated stuff. I just don't want to go into it with regular people. You and me, right now, I can still have a drink and we can talk, we can talk about companies, we can go deep into the company.

But if I start telling people about the debt to equity ratio, what I mean? What I mean to you? That's French, right? Yeah, what I mean to you? But if I say, yo, every new bar sell water, that mean more to everybody, right? Now, if you're an expert, you can carry that further.

And that's cool. We can have a conversation elsewhere. But my thing is to bring everybody in. So that's what I what i'm happy about i honestly feel good when i hear that stuff and i'm happy that i hear it's not me alone hearing it no i mean as i said i don't really because i don't i've kind of managed the client inflow but that one really touched me because i mean yes things okay no but i remember a while, not even that long ago, I mean, seven, no, like whenever, whenever I left our place, things were challenging at times.

And you said, boy, you know, it wasn't like I'd have a, you know, a bridge and I could have been like, yo, what should I do with this? Or how should I invest this? Or what should I do when I eventually come into something to invest? You kind of have to figure it out yourself when you have mentors in the business and all that so to be able to help somebody know was very important to me and that's actually what informed like my

sharing on twitter because i've been on twitter for years talking about money i don't know i don't know what led to that one tweet about jamaica and investing that just kind of caught wildfire the one about well i never but listen you have understand for me a bit but i've been doing for years but i just remember saying you know what if it's one time i can't afford for the average person in jamaica to not if i can't afford for an opportunity to pass is-hmm you know I said you know and I I just spent the liquor time to share it because I said you know what if one person benefits then it's worth it yeah and it has been one person starts it's worth it so I'm grateful yeah so you link me I say oh I'd have to make myself

a villain I'm happy I'm happy that you came because for me then i talk about all the time one we don't want to it's not an interview podcast yeah it's not it's not it's not a news podcast not an interview podcast but there's some people whose voices i think deserve some amplification and yeah it's good to have it and i don't want a conversation to happen so i am thankful that you came here i think we can almost wrap up i like to think at the end we're asking especially since we have a actual investment analyst here let's do it tell me your picks virgin let's hear what we need for bye what do you have in mind all right yeah i always met that nice start offers i'd go people talk about people tell me that they're always that night offers which is true because one are pushing that i to talk more on the podcast right two um i guess it's easier we can talk about stuff i never sell my picks uh i'll tell you something that i like no i i can't say i'm realizing i need to be careful about language because i am not an

investment advisor but i personally i'm excited about buying qw when it lifts you guys have heard me talk about it all the time yeah um i still pause good tangents to have you here how you feel about the the jam T director selling? Can you talk about that? I don't know enough about it, to be very honest. Me neither. I don't know enough. I don't know. I can't speak.

I don't I can't speak to Cardona. So I haven't even and I could call either the Johns and ask, but I just. You know, I just don't know. That's the way I don't say if I know what's not. If I knew I would comment, but I just genuinely don't know. All right. So that's really what i don't i would say if i know if i knew i would comment but i just genuinely don't know all right so for me i still love jam t i'm gonna put the money in there right now i watch him to see what's happening with qw definitely buying qr when it comes uh if any mpc anybody wants selling it i'd buy it i said the qdq look dry here I ran the stealing my picks though.

Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I get all easy ones out of the way. You ever go one more? Let me go one more good one. One more good one. I can say. Well, I don't. I'll leave Blue Power for that night.

Oh, yeah. Blue Power failed. I thought they were the running numbers. Like, what's the Blue, the soap division's numbers alone? Yo, Blue Power is the lumber company. Is it? As far as I'm concerned. Yeah, in terms of how much money they're getting from soap versus the lumber yeah man the lumber money heavy money for them you're joking i need to look at it i never knew that yeah so we're people are

asking me if so this is good i can actually talk about blue for you here we go people are asking So this is good I can actually talk about Bupa for you People are asking So they're not Reporting anymore I promise you If they stopped

Reporting Lomba Consolidating the Lomba division That is tanking The amount of money They're pulling from The Lomba Is so much a part of

Oh 70% Almost there You're serious I never knew that Something like that 70 to 80% Most of the money Is coming from Lomba I had no idea i thought so would have been big so to me it's a it's a master play

because the tax revenue how much money they're putting to taxes when they're going to the final go to 10 years is most of it is lombo most of the lombos if they spin it off and list that then there's the tax review they're saving the tax the tax that's everything they thought they're all the juice bro yeah well yeah the taxes that's a city that the company is the lumber the taxes are taxes yeah when they finally start paying full taxes then it's just on the soap division and that's not most of their money oh wow that is something that I never even thought about that the untaxed part is going to grow now

Yeah, yeah So the amount of money pulled in because they want the acquisitions, they want to grow the company organically So splitting it off, that's great for me That's actually, that's a cool play Yeah man, because the revenue on lumber is much higher The margin on lumber I think is lower But I have the 2018 numbers up in front of me They made a 115.9 million profit in 2018

and Lumba was 62 million out of that. Soap was 53.9 now. Soap we know has fallen, Lumba has grown in that time. That's what's happening. I need to run the numbers, okay? Yeah man, these numbers are interesting. So Lumba is a company. Wow. Yeah.

Very interesting. And that'll be a startup now? Yes. On its own. Technically, like, just- On its own own tax-free correct but but of course blue power was still oh yeah i know it's within the whole western 50. i i'm looking at 80 percent yeah yeah it makes sense yeah so 20 hits the market but then you have the pirate results you're gonna it's not gonna be a pirate pass it has to be in terms of what the existing shareholders

into lombardy i don't know we don't know where i mean i'll be open and say i'm gambling on that which is why which is why we bought blue power shares but the x date passed so yeah we got some shares you got some i'm not sure how the transfer will happen expect like a dividend in specie or something like that but yeah so i test your life you stole my easy one oh gosh let me search ah sorry sorry sorry for what well in the meantime then i search is what you like well everyone should know i like laska manufacturing the bet is they will grow their revenues they will go to the bottom line but even if they don't i still think the efficiency from

the expanded warehouse and having all their manufacturing in one space will continue to drag expenses down it's a bit of a gamble i mean it's a seven billion revenue company they make a billion profit the margin is 14 to 15 percent net is 11 nobody else is in double digits that's true they're there yeah and and that's i believe is a function of them having their own little their own products anytime you have your own products it's good distribution you get a nice it makes a big difference uh how do you feel though i mean i'm arguing with last m i always had this thing that last time is protected by by last d yeah because everything they produce are distributed can i tell you a story that i don't know if last day is a very good distributor

i don't think they are but i think they're a protection for last m because last m market last time can have a gap they can they can go even if things are bad we push this last thing to you because you have to buy device and push it off but i guess what i'm saying is suppose blasty was a better distributor wouldn't they have better penetration definitely yeah no doubt no doubt definitely no doubt but it's hard to be the same thing we'll be growing so much if last year was a better distributor i think so because i can't tell you of products that they distribute to others that people aren't as happy with and you can do we sink or switch with a lot what was it again the last ice cream the ice cream yeah the last i've lost a few things there was a company

that used to distribute for and they're no longer and we think we took it up we think it's worth for you know exploded so my picks aren't very you know sexy as i said i like last time i personally have taken a size little bit on it i like amg i still think amg has to figure themselves out yeah i took a small bit and i've kept it i've actually i'm probably going to double down again next week it's a good time to go and double down in my opinion and the last one was last time amg actually very boring scotia i don't find much informed people liking scotia and i know you're informed so yeah i don't i've never been a buyer before and I've

always kept my eyes on it and their capital adequacy ratios relative to NCB have you know they're better ncb bank knowing they're not capital man or anything and listen what's the downside right how much downside is there with this international bank and further i'll get dividends of three four percent yeah and you're right hiding something i just want to be there when the role is called up all right i have to be very clear with the listeners because i know people do buy when we mention things guys the scotia play is a very risky play they may not buy out they may just choose to remain in jamaica for the next years, that they must get bought out. They could get bought out and offer is not good.

That is a riskier play. The rest of them, I mean, I trust Ryan. Everything's a gamble. Because at the end of the day, it's not like, I'm just doing it from a stock picker's perspective and trying to find some undervalued gems. Kind of like when Berger, when it was three. Yeah.

And Supreme Ventures when it was 290 or whatever. That worked out. It wasn't like people were talking about that because ncb was still an option but people weren't talking about ncb below below yes yeah below 100 nobody's talking about exactly so i have ncb no you know i have others no and i just said listen i need some newer picks to try and see if we can do something else when we turn the mic off yes anything else so how i trade i look for future picks so i say i'm working with this now and when it's done and it's time to put the money in at that time so looking at separate i ran this i spoke to you about this separate in the future

yeah so at some point when the expense line from the closure of the sugar and the sugar money not being good for them right now when that happens when that's off the books then nothing separate can turn around they'll have the 185 million spend on the consolidation of the milk the military area okay so okay when everything is when everything is up when everything bad is off the books and then that's when they're going to turn around and start giving us some proper profits. Separate items. Go ahead, continue. Look at Q4 last year.

In the unaudited, they reported how much million in profit for that Q4. And in the audited, it was 92 million. It was 280 million in Q4. And audited numbers were showing 92 million in profit in that q4 alone and a lot of it was sugar the sugar was causing issues if you look at the revenue no if you look at their profit no like the last profit is strong much stronger than 92 million and say take off the sugar and that 185 spend that's looking really good for them in my opinion

all right i like i'm gonna add to your separate point two points one that we're just to simplify it separate for the listeners separate has an old sugar mill old sugar company has has made their money the uh md richard pandoy shows out richard pandoy used to be my boss big richard yeah man rich that i read richard i'll leave it there um but he he has he has revitalized i think separat and but that part of separat was was just beyond revitalization has been very open about the fact that he wanted to close the sugar factory if they couldn't meet certain performances and they couldn't and so he's closing and it's like a hundred and odd million hit that they take just to keep it open so closing it is cool but i think they're going to close

it it's going it's not closed immediately it's going to take a couple of quarters to close so don't run go by expecting it to close immediately these things don't close quickly the spend is going to be there for a little while here's a second point to separate though big up my lawyer friend i won't say her name but here's a second point for seprad they have very interesting moves that they're doing in the region in all other areas of their business milk wheat rice did they say grains sorry yeah so milk and grains they're doing some very interesting things there and they're working with the coconut. Yeah, yeah.

So Sepad is interesting over the next, you're right, there's a couple of picks, a good pick in a few quarters. Yeah. That's actually a very nice one. Now we've given them the money, I definitely can't tell nothing else.

So I think we'll wrap it there. Give you guys a nice hour and a half. Thank you, Ran. Five Soleil on Twitter for showing up. Big up. My pleasure, man man thanks for having me yeah so

I've been Randy at RTRO on Twitter if you want to ask me the questions that I can or can't answer and and I've been Danai at HDanai

sorry for cutting off Randy at the start that's fine that's right on a day like today Danai is a very powerful name to have so you can do that

don't be washed up alright Danai thank you guys that's right on a day like today that is a very powerful name to have so you can do that don't be washed up all right thank you guys i was earning season this week see you next week all right thank you big up