Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 1009: The Orioles vs. the World

Episode Date: January 20, 2017

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan begin by bantering about tentative plans for an Effectively Wild event this summer. Then, prompted by Baltimore’s Mark Trumbo signing, they pit the perplexing Orioles against every other organization in a series of head-to-head matchups. Audio intro: The Band, "Volcano" Audio outro: Beck, "Volcano"  iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)  Sponsor Us on Patreon […]

Hello friends, welcome to Effectively Wild episode 1009. This is a podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters and also by Fangraphs.com I have never done this introduction before, so this is a rough go, but we'll see how it goes I am Jeff Sullivan, writer for Fangraphs and nowhere else I am joined by co-host Ben Lindberg of The Ringer Hello Ben That was flawless Perfect

I'm using that first take We're not even going to do that over Alright, well why don't we just spend the next 20 minutes talking about how good the introduction was? There was some danger that that would happen. Yeah, so we can skip to not the topic, but the pre-topic, which I don't think you know about this yet. But you and I were talking on yesterday's episode about our plans for the total eclipse this coming August. And we got an email question about it and what the baseball implications of an eclipse would be and we were sort of semi-seriously saying that it would be fun to be

at a baseball game during the eclipse and that you were planning to watch this thing somewhere around where you live in Portland because that is roughly in the path of the eclipse and I was speculating about where I would go to see it so it turns out that there is a baseball team that is doing an event for the Eclipse, and it is very close to you. And it's the Salem Kaiser Volcanoes. Oh, my God. I'm sure you're aware of the Giants Class A farm team, which is what, about an hour away from you? Yeah, I would say I live in a state of extreme awareness of this minor league baseball team right down the i-5 yeah so they're doing something called an eclipse fest and uh they are calling it total eclipse of the park which i guess was inevitable but uh nonetheless i am i am still interested this sounds great in fact i think if we

can arrange it if we figure out a way we've never really done this exactly in the history of the podcast but if we can do a effectively wild meetup never really done this exactly in the history of the podcast, but if we can do an Effectively Wild meetup of sorts. I posted in the Facebook group earlier, and it seems like there's a lot of interest in this, a surprisingly lot of interest, given that this is not really centrally located, and the eclipse happens to be on a Monday morning, basically. So this game starts at 9.35 a.m. Pacific time.

And then there's some stuff that goes on and there's a suspension in the middle of the game. So the game stops and everyone watches the total eclipse and then people play baseball again. So this sounds like a lot of fun. You're in the area and Dave Cameron's in the area and Rob Nyer's in the area and Matthew Corey's in the area and lots of other people who don't write about baseball are in the area. And it sounds like a lot of people in the Facebook group are interested. So if we can get 25 or

more people who will buy tickets to this thing, then we can get a group rate and this should be a pretty memorable event. Yeah, that's excellent. I don't remember off the top of my head about what time of day the eclipse is supposed to take place, but I'm given to understand now it's somewhere in the vicinity of like 1030 to 1130. Yeah. Is that correct? Yeah. The game starts at 930 or 935. And then I guess they play a little bit and then they stop for the eclipse at some point. So probably that's right. So I don't know how many people can get away on a Monday morning and go to a baseball game an hour away from Portland.

Hopefully enough people listen to us that there would be considerable interest. It seems like there would be. So if you're interested, go to the Facebook group and post in that thread so that we have some rough idea of how many people might actually attend this thing. Thank you to whichever listener posted that link because I had not logged on to Facebook yet today and i will be keeping an eye out for it that's a very good idea yeah that's all i got all right well uh here's what i got uh inspired a little bit by uh mark trumbo has just signed yeah i don't know when this is going to get posted but trumbo just signed thursday afternoon he re-signed with the orioles for three years 37.5 million dollars which is roughly half of what

rumors had been, at least regarding what Trumbo wanted. I think we all have wanted $80 million at some point. Mark Trumbo is no different from the rest of us, except that he has gotten much closer to actually getting that money than any of us are likely to. But still, he's a fair distance short.

This is not to rip on the Orioles for resigning Mark Trumbo. The contract seems like it's fine, whatever. It's uninteresting. It's Mark Trumbo. It's the middle of January. Nobody really wants to talk about Mark Trumbo resigning with the Orioles, but it did get me thinking about the Orioles. And when I think about the Orioles, I think about any number of things, including how they seem to perennially overachieve. And then every year we still sort of underrate them again because we don't really think that they're capable of doing it again. But the topic I wanted to get into is you look at the Orioles.

It's a bit of a top heavy roster. There's not a lot of a farm system coming. Keith Law just released his farm system ranks 21 through 30. This came out just the other day and the Orioles slot in at 25. Keith Law, of course, is only one man, even more so than Baseball America is one organization. So I don't want to say that he's authoritative or the most authoritative, but still it stands to reason a farm system

that ranks 25th by Keith Law's ranking is not a very good farm system relative to the others. So Orioles right now, 25th ranked roughly farm system that's got Chance Sisko and this other guy, Chris Lee. Keith Law called him out by name as a good prospect. I've never heard of Chris Lee before. I looked him up last year. Have you heard of Chris Lee?

No, just I've heard of the guy who played Count Dooku, but that's probably not this Chris Lee. Probably not, although I can't confirm or deny. But this Chris Lee, he's 23 years old. And last year he pitched in AA Bowie. He threw just 51 innings. I think he had a back injury. And in 51 innings, he struck out 19 players. So just based on that fact alone, I'm not real interested in Chris Lee.

So it's kind of like Chance Sisko and nothing else. Maybe I'm going on too long here, but it's a thin farm system. And then typical scouting the stat line, Jeff. And you know what? It works for Sisko and I'm going know what it works for scooley and i'm gonna make it work for myself uh go see a game sometime well i plant you on what august 21st yeah salem geyser volcanoes man it's perfect i want to watch everything eclipse and volcano influence of all of our interests yeah uh so okay orioles bad farm system they also currently by our projections on fan graphs they

project for a record of 79 and 83 you can spare me how all the projections continue to get the Orioles wrong the long and short of it being this is a team that does not have much of a farm system does not seem to have that much of a major league roster Trumbo aside and also you look at the players they have under contract and Manny Machado is a free agent in two years Zach Britton is a free agent in two years Chris Tillman is a free agent next year and also he's not that good it's not that fascinating of a major league roster in terms of cost control either so what I would like to do is go one by one through all of the teams in major league baseball Orioles accepted and we will uh we'll try to figure out all of the teams in Major League Baseball Orioles accepted.

And we will try to figure out which of those teams would or would not trade places with the Orioles all encompassingly. And we can just, I don't know if we should do this alphabetically, but I guess why not? So why don't we do it alphabetically? And to make things interesting, we'll even start from the bottom. So why don't we start with the Yankees? Would the Yankees trade places with the Orioles? Yes or no? I think probably not. Are we talking about 2017 roster? Or are we talking about more things like franchise?

Everything. Everything. So you've got the major league team, the minor league team, ownership, just the whole general situation that the Orioles find themselves in right now I'm just trying to figure out not like how many teams history but oh no just starting starting now yeah okay so how many teams do we think are in a worse position than the Orioles and we'll go one by one so you say Yankees would not trade correct correct all right I agree with you so we'll just skip the Yankees move move on. Chicago White Sox. Would the White Sox trade places with the Orioles? Yes or no?

Hmm. Yeah. My gut says yes. I mean, they're kind of embarking on a rebuild now, which is sort of uncertain. They have certainly upgraded their farm system dramatically this winter by trading a lot of their best players. And so their short-term outlook is worse than the Orioles. Their long-term outlook, probably better than the Orioles, I suppose. So I don't know how you balance those things. You probably have to give more weight to the near-term, which we are more confident about. But yeah, I'd say they'd trade places. It's close, but yeah, I'll give it to them. I feel like it's they trade places it's close but yeah i'll give it to them i feel like it's i think it's very close because in the short term i think we all have an understanding the

orioles should they really should be better than the white socks this year especially if and when the white socks trade jose quintana but when i move beyond this year i can't say anything about what might happen in 2018 and then of course of course, from beyond, the White Sox farm system is so much better than the Orioles. And then they still have that present value they haven't really converted yet into longer-term value in Quintana, in a guy like Jose Abreu even conceivably. So I'm not so sure. Well, do you think the Orioles have that present value that they could conceivably convert in the same way if they decided to? Like they're going for it. They're at least intending to compete.

But if they decide to do what the White Sox did this winter, their farm system would be upgraded by some extent as a result. But would it be as much? Like it's not like they have Chris Sale. I mean, they have, you know, Manny Machado. Chris Sale, I mean, they have, you know, Manny Machado. Like if they decided we're not going to be able to resign him or extend him and now Manny Machado's on the market, then they can get whatever they want. That's kind of what the White Sox did. So like the Orioles have it within them to do what the White Sox did, but they also have the advantage of being able to contend right now, at least in theory, or they think they can.

It's that in theory part, and I can't tell how much we're being sort of biased by what the Orioles have done in the last few years. I think in a lot of ways, the White Sox came into the offseason kind of in a similar spot as the Orioles, except then they decided to go ahead and shed. And the Orioles have not shed,

and I think it's almost certainly because they've made the playoffs in the recent past, and they didn't want to get caught doing that. But I think this one is really close just for the sake of being nice, I guess. I'll say that, sure, the White Sox would trade places, but I'm saying that without really putting my heart into it. So super close, but I will put the White Sox on the list for now. By the way, you did research uh i think it was you right not too long ago about teams that have defied their projections like over a certain period of time did you do that probably yeah i have a sheet that goes back 12

years yeah sounds like me and the orioles were like over some period over the past whatever five years or something like aren't they i mean they are among the leaders or the leader i think like i don't know if that means anything but it has happened that way yeah i don't remember the link but yeah the orioles have blown away their projections i think over the past five years which roughly corresponds with the entirety of their good years in recent memory they've blown their projections away by i'm just going to guess here but probably by like twice what any other team has done i know like the pirates have kind of exceeded expectation but the orioles have have been unlike any other team and it's a little reminiscent of when the angels were defeating projections just every single year in the mid late aughts i don't really

know what we're calling the decade and then that kind of stopped for a little while there, right around when Mike Trapp came along. So too bad. But yeah, the Orioles have clearly blown away the projections, which is probably a perfectly legitimate reason for the fans to not worry so much about the projections. But at the end of the day, I think that if you're a fan, you still look at this Orioles roster and you're like, oh, right, pitchers. Right. Yeah. That was an issue last year too yeah like at some point well whatever I don't I'm not here to criticize the Orioles we're just doing some mental math so moving on I think we're we're basically agreed on the White Sox go to the Twins will the Twins trade places with the Orioles I'd say no I think no I mean the Twins are coming off what, the worst team in baseball by record, at least last year. And of course, they have changed their whole front office this winter. Maybe you think that's a good thing, but it hasn't proven to be a good thing yet. have a better array of young cheap promising players than the Orioles do if you go by the

projections they're worse than the Orioles this year but not that much like you know five wins or something and long term I think I would take what they have so again this is close like the Twins and the White Sox aren't all that different and we thought that the White Sox and the Orioles aren't that different so transitive property applies here the Twins and the White Sox aren't all that different. And we thought that the White Sox and the Orioles aren't that different. So transitive property applies here. The Twins and the Orioles aren't all that different. I think, though, that they have enough young talent that is like actually in the majors and could conceivably be good now for me to pick them. It's hard with the Twins versus the White Sox because they're so future forward.

And with the Twins, it's, you know, you're talking about Sano, Buxton, Berrios. And, you know, there's some other interesting players, but those are the big three. But then when you look at the White Sox, you're talking like Giolito and Mankata and, you know, all these other players who I'm not naming because we don't need to name every young player in baseball. But I think that I'm a little down on Sano I have been given very little reason to not be down on Berrios based on last year alone so I feel like whatever I choose to do with the White Sox I kind of have to say the same for the Twins which means I guess that I would say that the Twins would trade places because you know you'd rather have Manny Machado by far than any of the Twins' best players.

And after that, well, I guess after that, then it's kind of a mixed bag. I don't know. Maybe the Twins have a better second best piece. But, you know, if you're talking like, would you rather have Bundy or Berrios or Gosman or Berrios? And then I don't know what you do with Buxton in there, but it's not like one September changes our evaluation

of Byron Buxton completely so I'll say I'll say yeah Twins I'll say would trade places with the Orioles but you know again yeah makes perfect sense I mean the Twins have just been like the team that has maybe been most actively shooting itself in the

foot over the last several years, whether it was with just hating strikeout pitchers or hating strikeout pitchers and also hating good defensive outfielders and just like terrible combinations of talent or lack of talent and having the worst pitch framing over a long period, which was another thing that you found. And they've taken steps to correct that already. So I almost feel like just by not doing actively self-harming things like they've been doing lately, they can kind of make up ground quickly. But I guess that is attributing value to a front office that we haven't really seen operate yet. So that's sort of sketchy and speculative. So I think your position is perfectly reasonable. All right. I think this could be about a six hour podcast. Tigers, Detroit Tigers, would they? Yes or no? So the Tigers, I think this will

get easier. I'm not actually sure. Yeah. I mean, there are a lot of teams that are easy yeses, I think, so that will be pretty easy. But the Tigers, I mean, they must have like, what, the same projections basically this year? Better, right? Better projections? Yeah, Tigers better. All right. Well, I mean, if they're better now, then I guess you take the Tigers, right? Because the grounds for taking the Orioles over the White Sox or the Twins was that they are better this year. And that is not true in the Tigers case, probably. So I'll take the Tigers over the Orioles. Yeah, I think I'll take the Tigers over the Orioles too. But the Tigers might have even fewer long term assets. It's kind of right. Like this was the winter where people were talking about the Tigers maybe tearing things apart. And then I think they came to realize that people didn't want what they could sell because it's extremely expensive. And I think my favorite theory that was going around was that there was all that talk about the Tigers maybe

trying to trade, even being open to trading Verlander or Cabrera. And then I think it was Dave Cameron who told me that his theory was that they were basically just trying to lure Dave Dombrowski into making a trade and that they had no one else in mind. And then when he did other things, they were like, well well that was our shot so i guess we're just going to keep our superstars so okay same boat tigers kansas city royals would they trade yes or no so again these are similar in that like these are two teams that have like guys who are leaving like at the same time i guess that the orioles people are possibly leaving a year later than the royals people so maybe that is a point in their favor they are pretty leaving a year later than the Royals people. So maybe that is a point in their favor.

They are pretty close this year. Yeah, I mean, they're like within a win on the depth charts projections right now. Yeah. So that's basically a tie long term. I don't know. The Royals system's pretty depleted now too, I guess, relative to what it was. So this might be even closer than the White Sox for me. And these are like the two teams that have defied people's projections probably most famously

in the recent past. So I guess I'll take the Royals over the Orioles, but this is like probably the biggest toss-up there is. Yeah, I think that the Royals, if they could just kind of forget about the whole winning the world series thing and just evaluate themselves today i think that they would trade places uh in large part just because you get that whole machado extra year thing there's a little more certainty for 2018 and the royal system sucks too now there's a lot of like injury questions in there a lot of what ifs in their system. So there's upside, at least according to Keith Law, who knows things about this and I do not.

But on the other hand, though, you get the AL Central bonus and two of the teams that we've just talked about as being no better than the Orioles are in the AL Central. I think maybe just the context of where they play is enough for me to prefer Royals. All right. All right. All right. So yeah, that's an extra point. I didn't really think about. Okay.

So the Royals are maybe the most on the fence, hopefully of any team we come across. Colorado Rockies, would they trade places? No, I don't think so. I mean, you could consider the institutional disadvantages of being the Rockies and how the Rockies have had a really hard time being good for their whole history. And maybe that's enough of a reason, but they were a decent team, certainly in the second half last year. They have more young talent than most of these teams that we've talked about so far. They also seem to have a weird front office that does really strange things.

And so maybe you take that into account also. But just based on talent i would say rockies over orioles yeah i i think the rockies would stay put as well and you know if you're going to talk about front offices that do funny things well then i think the orioles are second to none uh cincinnati reds would they trade places with the orioles no this this might be like the only one i don't even have to think about and say no. So they would or they would not trade places with the Orioles? Oh, they would. Yes.

Okay. That's why I was so confused. You were very matter of fact. Yeah. No. Yeah. Reds would be happy to be the Orioles. I have to remember the order we're doing this in. Red Sox. We can just go ahead and skip that one. Yes. Rays. Would the Rays trade places with the Orioles?

Everything that goes into being the Rays. Yeah. So you have the same AL East challenge and you have a team that is just as bad right now, probably, or close to as bad, roughly as bad. Not a great system. It's all sort of the same. Bad, roughly as bad. Not a great system. It's all sort of the same. And you also have just the disadvantage of being Tampa Bay and not drawing and having a low payroll every year and basically having to be smarter than everyone else to build a good baseball team.

So I'm going to say given all that and the stadium, all of those sort of ancillary things, I don't know if we're really taking that into account or not, but I'd say the Rays would trade with the Orioles. I want to say that they wouldn't. And it's hard to know for sure because they are a little bit screwed being who they are organizationally and being where they play there. What are the two teams who's just kind of most stuck floating there? Of course, as everybody knows, but like the roster, I think is a little bit better. The farm is not that good, just like the Orioles isn't very good. But there's so much controlled, so much more controlled talent on the roster now. And I think that even though they can't spend as much as the Orioles do every year, they are so much better

about the way that they allot their money than the Orioles are. And you can just look at cases like having Chris Davis and then also for some reason having Mark Trebo again on the same roster for the next three years where I think that when Peter Angelos who I know he's not in charge of the Orioles day to day but in a sense yes he is he and his front office don't spend so efficiently and they kind of fall in love with certain guys and the Rays are almost like obnoxious to the extent that all they care about they don't even care about players as much as they care about surplus value it's just every single trade that you make with the Rays they're going to win that side of it even when the Mariners traded for Drew Smiley uh that company

Nefi Co on Twitter was like yeah the Rays just added 33 million dollars in surplus value making this trade alone now maybe that's way too high a valuation of Malik Smith. I don't really know. But I mean, what's the difference between Malik Smith and Kevin Kiermaier? I don't really know how great that difference is. But Kiermaier is like a five-win player, for God's sake. So I think that the Rays would be confident enough that no, I think they would not trade with the Orioles. But I will put them with a question mark on this list. Yeah, If we're actually talking about would the team do it, I think almost every team wouldn't do it just because maybe they have an inflated sense of self-worth or they are attached to their own players or they don't want to give up. I'm sure that they try to avoid that

sort of bias, but it's probably tough to do. And I'm sure every team thinks that has some above average front office, even though that's not possible. So I think just looking at this dispassionately and impartially, you could come to a different conclusion than the team itself would. And maybe I'm being influenced too much by the Rays record last year, which was very bad. And they won 68 games, but they were probably not a true talent 68 win team. I think my favorite fun fact from last year, I don't know how many of the listeners are familiar with base runs

standings, but it's essentially sort of like third order standings on baseball prospectus, but it just tries to strip away as much luck as you can and just says, here's how good teams were based on how they performed outside of sequencing and luck and all that stuff so if you look at actual record of course the texas rangers were 95 and 67 best record in the american league and the rays were 68 and 94 which made them the second worst team in the american League. So there was a 27 win difference between the Rangers and

the Rays. But by base runs, the Rangers were the luckiest team in baseball. The Rays were the unluckiest team in baseball. And so by base run standings, the Rangers had a final record of 82 and 80, and the Rays were 81 and 81. So unfortunately, they

separated on the last day of the season, if I recall, so they weren't exactly even but i loved looking at this it's so for anyone who's a big believer in base runs than the rays and the rangers were basically the same last year except that one team won 95 times and went to the playoffs and it made a lot of people happy and the other team uh was terrible yeah yeah the rangers were just the weirdest you got a lot of articles out of that. Oh, God. Love it. Love it.

Yeah. All right. Who's next? Well, that's convenient. The Rangers. So the Rangers are next. They project a little better than the Orioles. Maybe you're looking at the same page. Yeah. Well, yeah. I mean, I think for most people, this would be like they wouldn't even have to think about it, right? Everyone would say that the Rangers would not trade places with the Orioles. I think a lot of people see the Rangers as maybe the favorite even in the AL West or at least a playoff favorite. And I don't think I see them that way. I don't think you see them that way, but they're still better than the Orioles and their farm system has been depleted too, but what is probably still better than the Orioles, and their farm system has been depleted too, but what is probably still better than the Orioles,

at least as good as the Orioles, and they've done a really good job of developing players and rebuilding their farm system over the years. So despite the fact that we might be some of the low people on the Rangers relative to what most people think, I don't really see a good case For why they would trade With the Orioles Pirates, would the Pirates trade places?

Nah, I don't think so They've got a better team Now, possible wildcard contender A little bit better Not all that much better, but think they're better Think they have a much better Young crop of close to Major League Ready Or already Major League Ready Guys who have the potential to be stars have a much better young crop of close to major league ready or already major league ready guys

who have the potential to be stars of course they have handicaps spending wise and market wise also but given everything i think i'd take the pirates over the orioles yeah i think they're a little bit better now and then they also have more it seems like more kind of controllable long-term youth even beyond your major league roster guys. You've got Meadows, who's not too far. You've got Glasnow, who I know he has been in the majors, but he's probably not quite ready yet. But he's close enough, and the Pirates are a slightly better version of the Rays. So now we move on to a team that's a lot like a National League version of the White Sox, but maybe in a year.

We've got the Phillies. that's a lot like a National League version of the White Sox, but maybe in a year we've got the Phillies. Yeah, so this might be the first case where I really have to choose a team that is out of it right now and has essentially no chance in 2017. So I think I still probably would. I think maybe they didn't make quite as much progress as one might

have hoped that they would make last year. Like, you know, they had some guys who could have taken greater steps and guys who took steps back even like Michael Franco. I don't know. They're not like no doubt, like the way that you looked at the Astros or the Cubs and you said, oh, there's definitely like a division winner core here that's a year or two away. I don't know that the Phillies feel that inevitable to me, but I would guess that they've accumulated enough talent to make the long-term difference between them and the Orioles overcome the short-term disadvantage. Yeah, I think to whatever extent the Orioles are more likely to make the playoffs in the year ahead, it's certainly not going to be easy for them. They're by far not favorite in the American League East. And then you've got some other very good teams flying for the wildcard. So the Orioles are kind of already a playoff long shot, which means it's not such a big deal that the Phillies are a playoff no shot I think that last April we all got a little bit too excited about the Phillies for good reason I think all their pitchers were healthy and they looked great and then yeah

things got worse from there but still you've got Nola who I love it seems like he's healthy Velasquez who seems like he'll be a good something whether that's a starter or a reliever Eikhoff never really gets any love but he's a pretty good starting pitcher and even ignoring the rest of the guys they have in the rotation you've got jb crawford coming who's like almost ready and you've got franco who's interesting and herrera who you didn't mention but he's also very interesting as sort of an outfield version of cesar hernandez who's on the same team it's not a great roster clearly i think everybody knows that the phillies know that but i I would still take them over the Orioles just like you would.

So it gets tougher. Padres. Yeah, so this just comes – I mean, this is another case like the Phillies, a team that's not going to win this year. And their farm system has been depleted and built back up again in a very short span of time. I don't even have a great handle on where they would rank on like a Keith Law list right now, but I assume higher than the Orioles. It's been so long

since they have done anything good that it feels weird to pick them over a team that has like the most wins in the American League over the last five years or something. Isn't that? Yeah. So I would not take the Padres over the Orioles.

Yeah, I agree with you. I think the difference for me is that the Padres just really don't have that much that's established on the Major League roster yet. There's more interesting good players because they did things like make the Kimbrel trade, the second Kimbrel trade, I should say, not the first one.

But, you know, what brings the Padres down is that in the last few weeks, they've made signings like Julius Chassin and Clayton Richard and Trevor Cahill, and they've made all these signings. And all those people are going to be in the starting rotation, which tells you something about the state of the Padres starting rotation. So the pitching staff is pretty bare in the major leagues. And when you get to the position player side, the only player projected for more than like one and a half war is Will Myers, who even there is maybe a little bit overrated.

It kind of depends on your evaluation of Will Myers, but he is the guy that they have. Maybe you're a believer in Austin Hedges' breakthrough. I don't know, but there's just so little there at the major league level. And if I'm going to get really excited about a young player, it's because he's already proven himself at a high level. Plodgers don't have enough of those. So we move on to the Oriolesle no no that's not right we'll skip the orioles and the uh the nationals no they're not trading places yeah the orioles the mets nope nope uh the marlins maybe this gets a little more interesting yeah that does get more

interesting hmm so the marlins are like the perpetual trendy pick, I feel like, every spring, which maybe in the past few years has been because they had some really good, young, exciting players with not much of a roster around it. And now I think they probably do not rise to that level. So now I can't see a good, like their projections are identical right now. And given all of the weirdness of the Marlins, I can't really see a reason to choose them over anyone organizationally speaking. And that's probably enough to break the tie here. So I stick with Orioles over Marlins. else over marlins yeah i think i think the marlins would probably i guess it depends who you're asking in the marlins because jeffrey loria might have a different perspective than other people who work for jeffrey loria but i think the marlins would probably trade places if they could exchange everything with the orioles the the present day roster of course it's badly missing the ace starting pitcher and they keep trying to replace him but you're just not going to do that with

edmonton volquez and dan straley the farm system is a mess and they just continue to replace him, but you're just not going to do that with Edenton Volquez and Dan Straley. The farm system is a mess and they just continue to make it worse. I am somewhat excited, I guess, to see what the Marlins become because they've done things like add Jim Benedict, who was a pitching advisor for the Pirates, and they have now some people in the front office

who know math, which they did not have for a very long time. I don't know how Jeffrey Lurie ever was able to count his fortune, but perhaps he doesn't have an idea of what he's worth. But yeah, the Marlins are the most screwed up organization in baseball. And so I think that if they could trade and to become, I think the Orioles might be arguably the second most screwed up organization

in baseball, but if there's like a wide chasm between those two, then yeah, I think the Marlins would trade places which takes us to the seattle mariners that's an intriguing one i think clearly better team this year legitimate chance at a wild card at least so they're better in that respect their farm system probably even more barren than the orioles there's just not a lot left there. So I'd probably stick with the Mariners if I had the Mariners just because they are better now. I guess it comes down to the same

argument about if they wanted to do the fire sale and the rebuild, they could. They would have some players who are appealing to other teams. So they're better now and they could have a better farm system if they wanted to convert their assets that way so yeah probably mariners over orioles yeah yeah i think still mariners now i'm a little biased because i'm a big fan of guys like james paxton and mitch hanegar and these are somewhat unproven players but they're also players who have very exciting looking ceilings and present day value and their paxton's got three years of control and hanniker's got i don't know like 13 so there's a lot of uh neat ability lined up there uh mariners clearly uh bad farm system i think keith law had them as one of the only farm systems worse than the orioles i might be making that up

but you know it's effectively true no matter what, but sounds right. It's close. And I think that the fact that the Mariners looked like the best non division leading American league team right now kind of puts them over the top. So Cleveland Indians, forget that San Francisco giants. Yeah.

Forget that. Skip that too. Los Angeles Dodgers. Skip that. Yep. And we've got the diamond backs, the diamond decks. The Diamondbacks. Yeah, basically the same projection this year.

Totally new front office, which given what the old front office was like, might be enough to change your answer right there. It's very close. Without going player by player, I kind of like the Diamondbacks' talent a little bit better, I think. At least just in terms of their rotation, certainly, is far superior. And they do still have some stars in Goldschmidt and Pollock and players I like a lot. So I don't know how exactly the farm systems compare. I can interrupt you.

I'll tell you. Yeah, sure. Keith Law ranked them last. Really? Dead last? Dead last. That makes this difficult then, but I kind of lean toward Diamondbacks. Yeah.

Yeah, I do too. I think that the farm system blows and everybody can see that, but there's still so much young or reasonably young talent on the major league roster that without knowing for sure, it feels like there's a decent amount of cost control there where like most of their pitchers even though they're complete unknowns or or just could be at this point there's they're under control for a while even shelby miller is under control for an extra while because he was so bad that they got to send him to the minors aj pollock who, who I think people forgot about because he missed the entire season, but he was one of the best players in baseball there for a little time before he got hurt.

He's got two years of control left, which is something. He's not quite as good as Manny Machado, but he's been close, and he's got the same amount of control left, and he's going to cost less money. So I think that the Diamondbacks are in a bad situation, but I would say that the Orioles are in a worse situation, which I puts us on the same page and that brings us to the Chicago that takes us to

the St. Louis Cardinals uh keep going yeah keep going we've got the Brewers Milwaukee Brewers projected for the second worst record in the major leagues currently per Fangraphs and Steamer but of course they've been rebuilding and doing a very good job of it. Yeah, most popular fodder for Fangraphs post maybe of any major league team, certainly any bad major league team. They've gone about this rebuild in a really interesting way and it seems like a smart way. And they've accumulated, what if not the best farm system in baseball, the second best, it's right up there. not the best farm system in baseball, the second best, it's right up there. I think that alone is probably enough for me to take them and basically punt on 2017 and hope that this weird collection of theoretically undervalued players that they've put together and like just tons and tons of guys who offer some value and not many guys who offer a lot

of value. I think I would still take that over what the Orioles have. Yeah, if you look at the Brewers major league roster right now, it's it feels really light. And if I just glance at these, these projections right now, they have one position player projected to be better than two wins above replacement. And that's Eric Thames, who's been in Korea. They have one pitcher projected for that level. That's Junior Guerra, who's like a 37-year-old rookie, basically. I don't know how old he actually is, but he's close.

So it's a really light major league roster on what's proven. But I'm a huge fan of Keon Broxton, who they got for a song. They basically stole him from the Pirates. And I think Broxton is a hell of a player right now. I am a big fan of Doming Broxton, who they got for a song. They basically stole him from the Pirates. And I think I think Broxton is a hell of a player right now. I am a big fan of Domingo Santana, who's who looks like a really good hitter who should hopefully hit enough to make up for all the things he does poorly, which is everything else. And then that's not even touching on like the really exciting younger players that have gotten more attention. You're guys like Brett Phillips or Louis Brinson

or Josh Hader, who's like flying up prospect charts. I heard someone at the winter meeting say that what's the real difference between Josh Hader and Lucas Giolito? And Giolito, of course, has been considered like the top pitching prospect in baseball. Hader has not, but he's getting there. And then they've also got Luis Ortiz and Trent Clark and Isan Diaz. And I can just go off this prospect list if I wanted to. But the Brewers, basically, I think we can agree, top three farm system, maybe a better distribution of hitters versus pitchers than the White Sox, who have gone fairly pitching heavy, makes the Brewers feel a little more reliable. And I think that even though they're going to be bad, they're going to be interesting bad in the year ahead.

And then from there, they should become interesting average and then maybe interesting good, even though they still share a division with the Cubs. Yeah. So moving on from the Brewers, we've got the opposite of the Brewers in one way, the Braves, who are all about young pitching. Yeah, right. Generally, that's not the way I would go, I guess, if I were doing this. But still, like if the Braves can't be better than the Orioles in the next few years, then they will have had to truly fail.

Because the extent to which they have given up on the present or that they did for a year or two there. And now they are making more of an effort to be respectable with the new ballpark and everything. effort to be respectable with the new ballpark and everything, but they've really gone just all in on cashing in whatever they had for guys who would hopefully be good a few years down the road. And so, I mean, they've really committed to that bit and it's hard for me to imagine it not paying off well enough for them to have a brighter future than the Orioles. I think they're probably a little bit worse currently, but not dramatically worse. So the Braves over the Orioles. And I'm not even as confident in that as I am with, say, the Brewers,

who I think are worse right now, but I'd still probably take the Braves. Yeah, I'd still take the Braves, and I think that one of my biggest reasons is just the presence of Dansby Swanson, who you probably wouldn't trade straight up for Manny Machado today just because you've got six years of Swanson and then versus two expensive years Machado. I haven't worked out the math on that, but you can take me at my word. You've got Freddie Freeman. He's still under control for a while. You've got Alzi Albies who's coming up and he's just about ready for the major leagues. Ender Inciarte is already up. He's got three or four years of control left and he's really good and kind of underrated

as a sort of National League version of Kevin Kiermaier. So I think there's enough there at the upper levels. And you throw in the fact that they have like a top five or ten farm system that the Orioles don't. And yeah, you take the Braves even if they were staying in the old stadium. And so we got the Blue Jays. I guess they have like come down enough that they are not in the automatically skip category as a bunch of teams have been in.

But they're clearly better now. And I wouldn't say that they are worse positioned for the future. So you'd have a tough time convincing me that the Orioles would be better than the Blue Jays. Yeah, agreed. So we won't skip the Blue Jays, but we'll effectively skip the Blue Jays and move right on to the athletics, which is a lot closer. Yeah, I think you have to take the Orioles over the A's. The projections are basically the same farm system wise. How would you stack them up? I don't really know much about the a's farm system which probably says enough what i think they do have going for them is they have

a bunch of pretty interesting young pitching for this year you've got sunny gray shawminaya kendall graven who's whatever gerald cotton and my personal favorite andrew triggs uh then you get to throw in afterthoughts like jesse hahn or chris bassett if and when he comes back and he's healthy the a's have like a rotation there where you could come back in a year and be like oh they all worked out that was a really good rotation a shame they couldn't hit her field but like they still they're probably not going to hit and they're probably not going to field I think the major league roster is worse than the Orioles maybe it's about the same but given given that there's not a great player on the team yet, except Sonny Gray, who was most recently awful,

and you throw in a farm system that is really not that good, I agree with you. I think you'd take the Orioles. Yep. And that brings us to the Astros, which brings us to the Angels, who will be our final team to consider in this hypothetical. Yeah, tough one. So if the Diamondbacks had the worst farm system,

I assume the Angels had the second worst farm system? The Angels, so the Diamondbacks were last and the Marlins were second last. And this is before the Marlins further emptied whatever they had to get Dan Straley. The Angels, oh no, Mariners 28. I'm sorry, Angels 27. All right, Angels are moving up in the world.

It wasn't long ago that people were talking about the Angel system as like the worst we'd ever seen. And now they're not even the worst currently. So that's nice for them. I think they are better than the Orioles right now, but probably still not good enough to make much of a difference. It comes down entirely to Mike Trout's presence on the team. That is a big, important presence, but yeah, this is one of the tougher calls for me. I don't know, like every time I want to say that I'd take the Orioles, I just think about Trout being on the team

and it's really hard to pick a team that doesn't have Trout over a team that has Trout. But yeah, I'm going to take the Orioles over the Angels, I think. I'm not confident in that decision. Yeah, I'm going to take the Orioles over the Angels. Okay. I think I'm not confident in that decision. Yeah, I will not. I will stick with the Angels in large part. It's because Trout is still Mike Trout and he's amazing and still so underpaid.

But I'm maybe one of the people who's like up on the Angels a little bit. I don't think they're great. Nobody thinks they're great. But, you know, beyond Trout, I do like Andrew Simmonds, who's a perfectly good above average everyday player who's under control for a while i still like cole calhoun there's no reason not to they just signed him to a three effectively four-year extension and he's an above average player most of the time cj cron is not great but he's better than people probably think and he's under control for a while and then on the pitching staff i like matt shoemaker quite a bit tyler skaggs is back he is something and i am really interested in what is happening with

garrett richards because i know just on your other baseball podcast you talked to dr dugas who uh was talking about the i guess we might as well just call it the seth manis surgery just coin it now but garrett richards unlike unlike Seth Manis didn't have surgery on a busted UCL at all but he had a stem cell injection to go with uh PRP injections and Richards seems like he is at full speed he has to this point avoided Tommy John surgery which is of course a big deal we won't really know anything until after the season and maybe not after five seasons but it looks like Garrettrett richards is still intact or at least intact again without having to miss too much time and he's a valuable player to have

around and so if they if you can count on him and skags and shoemaker which i know is a lot because the best case scenario is that one of those people had brain surgery last summer still there's something there the bullpen sucks but so be it uh you've got trout and then i think there's just enough of a supporting cast the farm system is bad but so are the orioles i think you still take the angels so i'm going to put them down here with a question mark okay so if you've actually been writing this stuff down what are the the total numbers okay so we have the following teams we agreed are in worse situations than the orioles've got the White Sox the Twins the Reds the Padres the Marlins and the A's that is six teams who we agreed are in worse situations than

the Orioles and then we have three teams who got question marks that means we disagree a little bit but they're close that's the Angels the Royals and the Rays so that would mean that I don't know if you give a question mark like half a team essentially then you've got six who are worse plus another one and a half so that's seven and a half so that would put the orioles ranked right around the 22nd and a half so like 22nd or 23rd best situation for a current big league organization yeah all right well we set out to talk about the orioles but we actually talked about every single team and now everyone knows where we stand

on every team in baseball, basically. That was very efficient. All right. Well, I guess next week we can do this same exercise, but with one of the other 29 teams. You've hit on a really effective formula here. We can get through any number of episodes. By the way, while we were talking, Meg Raleigh emailed me, and she's interested in attending this Eclipse Fest also.

And she has pointed me to the merch page for this event. And there is so much merch for this total eclipse of the park. There is a jersey. There's a dry fit shirt. There's a baseball. There's a lapel pin. There's a blanket, a mini bat, a seat cushion, a sweatshirt, a beer fest mug slash pint glass, a wine glass, a hat, and a t-shirt.

So if we end up doing this, there will be so many ways that people can memorialize the occasion. And she also points out that they are offering what she calls the best ballpark food deal she's ever seen. Total eclipse of the park breakfast, $10, served prior to the game from 7 a.m. to 9 a.m., includes ham, eggs, biscuits, and gravy, and chocolate caramel pancakes.

Coffee and juice included. Mimosas will be available for added charge. Fantastic. Sounds like a great deal. The only thing you need to do for this event is to just get a ticket. You don't need to worry about feeding yourself because they'll do it you don't even need to worry about clothing yourself because you can just buy all that merch at the store presuming it's open at

nine in the morning so you can show up hungry and naked and you can get clothes food and a lapel pin and then a bag to get put all your extra clothes in in case it warms up during the day because it will be august in central oregon don't even have to worry about sitting in the sun because it will be blotted out by a different large body so yeah this sounds great all right so stay tuned for for details i'm gonna try to put something together all right so that's it bye so long you can support the podcast on patreon by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild five. Five listeners who have already done so. Clay, Cody F. Schmidt, Connor Skipper, David Whitcomb, and Derek Dixon. Thanks to all of you.

You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash groups slash effectivelywild. If you're interested in attending Eclipse Fest, hop in there and leave a comment so that we will have some idea of the viability of this thing. You can also rate and review and subscribe to the podcast on iTunes. You can reach us via email at podcast at fangraphs.com or by messaging us through Patreon. Have a wonderful weekend and we will talk to you soon. I know we'll run the old To the volcano