Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 1055: A Scorecard, a Save, and a Home-Run Reveal

Episode Date: May 9, 2017

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan talk to 18-year-old Effectively Wild listener/pitcher Connor Watrous about his heroic accomplishment of keeping score at an 18-inning Cubs-Yankees game, banter about a besieged closer and a Matt Albers milestone, and discuss the implications of a new development in the high-home-run-rate mystery. Audio intro: Alice Cooper, "I’m Eighteen" Audio interstitial: Sloan, "A […]

I'm 18, and I don't know what I want. 18, I just don't know what I want. 18, I gotta get away. I've gotta get out of this place. I'll go running in outer space again Hello and welcome to episode 1055 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs, presented by our Patreon supporters. My name is Ben Lindberg. I'm a writer for TheRinger.com, joined as always by Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs. Hello, Jeff. Hello.

So we're going to banter a bit about multiple topics, then we'll have a real topic later on in the show. They're all real. I don't want to denigrate any of our topics. They're all important and special, but we're going to have a little help with our first banter topic. We are joined now by an effectively wild listener. His name is Connor Watrous, and if you are a member of the Facebook group, you've probably already seen his post. Connor is an 18-year-old high school student for now, although he is soon to be a University of Chicago student and pitcher there. So he's a player also, but he attended the Cubs-Yankees marathon game on Sunday night, which went six hours and five minutes. And he kept score and he posted his scorecard in the Facebook group, and it was a topic of much discussion because it was crazy looking,

and everyone was very impressed that he managed to do this. So hello, Connor. Thanks for coming on. Hello. It's an honor to be on. Yeah, so I am not a score keeper. I don't even know if I could keep score if I were pressed to. I have in the past, but it's been so long since I did that I don't even know if I could remember how to do it right. But I would have said that the typical age group of the baseball score keeper is probably an older person. I guess the typical baseball fan is an older person, but I wouldn't have thought that

keeping score was a common thing among high school aged students. What with baseball reference and box scores and the at bat app and being able to look up anything at any time. And yet you said that you keep score at every game that you go to. So how did you start doing this? Why do you, why do you do it? I mean, it kind of started a little while ago. I'd say probably two years ago, I think I went to spring training with my grandparents. And let me tell you, that's a fun time to scorekeep too. I guess that's probably been my best practice for what happened last night. But I just enjoyed it. And I figured if I wound up for whatever

reason going to an historic game, that if I had documentation of sorts that I was there, it would be really cool to show other people I was there. But also, I like having the scorecards for myself to remind myself what games I've been to. Those are good reasons to help you pay attention during the game. Do you feel like you're more in the game than you would be otherwise? Yeah, you know, it really, really does help. In the past, I've been bringing my glove to games to catch foul balls as one does. But I'm left-handed writing and I throw right-handed. So that's caused a bit of trouble.

So I've since ditched the glove for the pencil and stuck full time to that. And it really does help keep me a lot more focused on what's going on. I barely ever miss a pitch when I'm at the game now, which is, uh, it's really fun to be stay involved. If we could bring you to major league baseball's attention, you probably don't need to go to school or even get a job because they'll just use you and promote the hell out of you. It was like, look, today's youth does give a crap. I really wish I could. And one of the guys in the Facebook thread actually did comment and he said, if you lived in Florida, I would give you a job at one of my GCL teams. And that's probably the

most regretful I've ever been that I don't live in Florida because that's one of my dream jobs. So someone else in that thread questioned your use of the pencil instead of the pen. This feels like something that one of those stereotypical scouts in Moneyball would say, like he uses the pencil. He doesn't trust his stuff, doesn't believe he can use the pen on the scorecard. So I would imagine that pencil came in handy in this game. Do you always use pencil? Do you use pen sometimes?

You know, it's funny. That was actually the same guy who reached out about the Florida opportunity. But I actually do normally score in pen. It just so happened that I recently lost my bag with a bunch of stuff in it that I usually bring to baseball games. So that had a bunch of my pens in it. So I packed a new bag and that's the one thing I forgot. So I wound up using the pencil they had at the stadium, which was a lot of fun. So I guess it worked. It worked in my favor. Yeah. How much of that pencil was left at the end of the game? Was it one of those little pencil nub things? You know, the Cubs are actually really good about giving out supplies. They give out full-size

pre-sharpened pencils, but I do think I had... Clancy organization. It's probably Theo said, no more tiny pencils. I do think I had the once fully sharpened pencil down to a flat edge by the end of the game. So I assume that you are a Cubs fan. You've been going to Cubs games for a while. Yeah, that's correct. And have you ever left a game early? Do you ever leave games early? Were you tempted at all to leave this one?

Not early, but a little less late than you did? You know, I regret to say that the only game i have ever left early in my entire life was the cubs home opener this year and that was because for whatever when the world's serious and you you lost your desire yeah yeah that that was it for sure no but i i for whatever reason i decided that the smartest idea because as you may remember or may not, I don't know how closely either of you or any of the listeners follow the Cubs. I'm sure a good portion of them are Cubs fans, but the game was delayed probably about an hour and a half by rain. And I decided the smartest thing to do would be to wait out the rain delay outside, not in the concourse.

So my shoes got soaked. The temperature during the game probably peaked around 40 degrees. And I had to call it quits in about the seventh because I was about to get hypothermia. And they wound up getting a walk off in the 10th, which I'm still kicking myself over. But since then, I decided I'm absolutely never going to leave a game early again. Two part sort of related question as far as the scoring goes. One, do you have friends? And two, if you do, assuming you do, do they like going to baseball games with you? Can you pay attention to other people and pay attention to a game and score all at the same time?

This is as someone who has never scored at an actual baseball game. Well, to answer both questions, no, I don't have friends. Sorry to bring that up. It's fine. No, I, I, I do actually, I have a one really good friend. I'll, I guess I'll shout out. I'll shout him out. His name's Charlie. Um, he's a huge baseball fan. I'll probably tune into this because I'm on it. And, uh, he and I try to plan to go to as many games each year as possible. We actually went on a road trip last year. We went to Pittsburgh and then Toronto, which is quite a trek from Chicago. So he has relatives in both places. So it was very convenient. We went to games there and I am happy to admit I

actually kept score at both games. I am able to do a pretty good job at both focusing on scorekeeping and on being there with a friend. But I have gotten some flack for it from my friends as well, which I guess is understandable. It's kind of, I guess, a nerdy thing to do, but I guess that's why I like this podcast as well. That's not an equal to the podcast. That's a term of endearment.

I was, my freshman year, every year we go on a spring break trip with my school's baseball team down to Myrtle Beach. And that was back when the Myrtle Beach Pelicans were a Rangers affiliate still. We decided to go to a game because the first day down there, we didn't have any games scheduled. And as a little freshman me, I was like, you know what? I'm going to keep score of this game. So the upperclassmen had a field day with that one. They're like, why the heck are you keeping score of a single A ball game that we're only going to stay for seven innings?

I was like, you know what? I can do what I want. Can you keep score in the elements if you were trying to keep score at that opener? And it was, I don't know if it was raining at all once the game started, but if it is, is that something that you can do or is there a way or is there no way to keep the scorecard from getting damp? So generally, if that happens, I will hide the scorecard under whatever layer I am wearing and only bring it out to write the outcome of an at-bat. I don't know how close you looked at the scorecard, but I don't keep track of pitches. I mean, I would if I were an official keeper.

I absolutely would. That's part of the job description. But especially on the Cubs scorecards, there's no space to do so. But in that case, I only just bring it out whenever someone has an outcome of their at bat. I have two examples off the top of my head that I can think of. One's from a spring training a couple of years ago. Of course, in Arizona, the one day ever there, it decided to rain.

I was at a Padres Mariners game and the scorecard got absolutely smudged. That was actually to answer the guy on Facebook. I was using pen that game. So that's why you don't use pen. So, but the other time, biggest example is I was lucky enough and I still don't know how, but it was experience of a lifetime.

I was lucky enough to go to game seven in Cleveland. Ooh, nice. And last year And the elements, as everyone knows, played a very drastic role in both the outcome of the game and in my scorekeeping ability. Jason Hayward's inspirational speech inspired you to finish off your scorecard. Yeah. His biggest contribution to the 2016 season was inspiring me to keep my scorecard. No, that one was tough.

I had my bag, so I kind of kept it in there. But it's one of those little drawstring bags, so it's not entirely waterproof. I kind of had to hide the bag under my clothing as well. So I made it work. So what happened first when the game ended? Did you celebrate winning the World Series, or did you mark down on the scorecard that Michael Martinez granted out to the third baseman? So at the time, I was on my phone because not like texting or anything. I was recording a video of the last out being happened to post to Snapchat as teens do. It's good that you got that just so that there's a record out there of what happened.

I don't think anyone else has it. So I recorded that, posted it, turned off my phone, wrote 5-3, and began cheering. So the scorecard comes first. Have you inspired anyone else to start keeping a score, or at least to learn how to keep score, or has it always been sort of a solitary venture? Not to the point of keeping score. And this is kind of relevant to a different episode. I remember you guys, you guys named one, the Fernando Rodney dinner date. And that was inspired off of, uh, my, me personally and my girlfriend

at Culver's watching Fernando Rodney. But, um, I've, I've gotten her very into baseball and I mean, she too, at this point understands like what it means when I write stuff down but she's not personally inclined to keep score herself but I'll take any victory I can get so even getting her to like the sport was good enough for me I guess so we will link to the picture of your scorecard people can analyze it themselves but can you break down the biggest challenges the biggest compromises you have to make to fit an 18 inning game on a scorecard okay so the like three people remaining in the stadium at that point can attest i was slightly frustrated by the uh by the situation but um if you when you look at the picture that gets linked, the Cubs scorecard

has innings columns for 10 innings. And then it also has columns for at-bats, runs, hits, and RBIs. So if you cross out the stats, cross out and erase the stats and use them as innings that gives you 14 which that night was still not enough so there's a little tiny column area between because it's a folded two-page thing between the the middle seam of the page and where the the actual columns for the scorecard cut out and i use that actually for both the 15th and the 16th because both halves of each inning went by fairly quickly, less than nine batters. So I was actually able to fit both innings in that small column. But then once it got to the end of the 16th, by the 14th, I was like already yelling from my seat, like, Hey, I'm out of columns, end the game, please.

from my seat. Like, hey, I'm out of columns. End the game, please. And when it got to the 16th, I was like, I don't know what to do. So thought to myself, there's a similar column on the other side of the page, a little blank space, but I kind of wanted to keep it all on one page. So I figured the best way to do that, when you see the picture on the far left of the page, figured the best way to do that when you see the picture on the far left of the the page there are complete rosters with coaching coaching staffs and players for for each team for the yankees and the cubs and there's there was enough space between the roster on the far left and the place where you have to write the players names just to the right of it for me to fit two innings. So I managed to squeeze the 17th and 18th there with just barely. If it had gone one more inning, I might have had to turn the scorecard vertical and use the blank columns for the pinch hitter spots.

Disaster narrowly averted. Disaster narrowly averted So we got a question from a listener Jamal who was using this game As a springboard for a question About an extra innings rule And he mentioned that Travis Sotchick Had suggested maybe games be called after 12 And obviously people have been coming up

With all sorts of proposals for how we could limit games of this extreme length. Other than the fact that you were trying to fit these innings into your scorecard, did you want this game to end? Would you rather that it had been called at some point or been a tie? Or do you like having crazy games like this a couple times a season? You know, personally, I actually really like the crazy games. The only part of me that wanted the game to end at all was the scorekeeping part. Your core, your soul. That's me.

Yeah. And whenever I think about the proposed extra inning rules that Manfred has, I think back to the, I forget who it was, I think it was Dominican Republic against Columbia in the WBC and how the DR had an artificial seven-run rally sparked by that rule in the 10th inning of whatever game that effectively eliminated Columbia. Honestly, personally, and I know people of different opinions, obviously, I don't want that in Major League in major league baseball I like it the way it is I think pitching is already hard enough and I don't want to see every extra inning go bunt fly ball and then it's a lead so yeah I mean that's just

me personally but I know that other people would disagree but um I I went through kind of a range of emotions throughout the extra innings from probably the end of the ninth to the beginning of the, let's say the 13th. I was really hoping the Cubs would pull through as a Cubs fan would. Then from, I'd say the 13th to the 17th, the scorekeeping part of me, my core, as Jeff said, got the better of me. And I was like, oh my gosh, please let this game end. But then once it got to the 17th, I was like, you know what? I don't care anymore. I really just want to see how long this game goes. I thought it would be really funny if it lasted 20 innings. Yeah. I'm kind of with you. I mean, this sort of thing is so rare that it's always fun and memorable when it happens.

It's sort of unfortunate for the players who then have to go fly somewhere else and play. Although in the Cubs case, maybe they'll be bailed out by weather. But yeah, it can be tough, I'm sure, fatigue-wise. But for fans, at least it's a memory, even if they don't actually stay for the game or even stay up to watch the whole thing. So I'm kind of with you on that. So I guess we can close. You want to give us a self scouting report since you will be playing at UChicago pretty soon. Okay. Yeah. So right now, and I'm going to put in a lot of work in the off season as as prospective college

athletes and high school athletes do. Best shape of your life? I guess if you're 18, you better be in the best shape of your life. I'm going to be in the best shape of my life ready for next year. Right now, my fastball sits high 70s, low 80s, but I have really, really sharp 12-6 knuckle curve that I can throw in pretty much any count. That's probably my best pitch. I also have a splitter that I use as a put-away pitch.

So like 0-2, 1-2, sometimes even 2-2, I'll break it out. It's a pitch I bury in the dirt, get hitters to chase. And then this year I developed a slider, actually, which has almost as much movement as my curveball, but it's horizontal plane instead of vertical. Because right now I'm dropping down a little bit more than I'd like to on my slider. The arm angle is not entirely consistent. But if I can figure out how to translate that movement to more up top,

because I'm high three quarters to right over the top, it's my arm slot. If I can get it up there with the same movement, it'll be, it'll be really nice. So yeah, I guess that's what, that's what you have to look out for next year at University of Chicago. I hope none of your division three opponents are listening right now because they'll know exactly how to handle you. You know, a lot can change in that time. And I'm comfortable with throwing any of those four pitches in any count. So good luck, I guess.

I don't know. I don't want to seem too cocky because I'm completely unproven yet. But I think I'm in a pretty good spot. Do you have a preferred elbow surgeon? Oh, yeah. I'm not entirely sure yet. I need to explore my options. Yeah, I'm not entirely sure yet.

I need to explore my options. But a kid from my high school, actually, he had apparently a rare knee problem that is only seen in skiers in Europe. And he actually went directly to Dr. James Andrews to fix it. So I guess I had the inside scoop on that one. Oh, my goodness. Yeah, right to the top. You have the best elbow surgery you could ever dream of. Yeah. Well, get the MRI if they ask you to get an MRI. I think we've all learned that lesson. All right. Well, we appreciate you coming on and defying stereotypes about baseball fans being old

and millennials having short attention spans. You have very neatly countered both of those beliefs. And people can, of course, go out and see Connor next year or later this year playing at the University of Chicago. They can also find him on Twitter at his name, Connor Watrous, which is W-A-T-R-O-U-S. And his most recent tweet is just a picture of the scorecard. And it just says, please no more innings at Cubs, at Yankees, at MLB. You should probably just leave that as your pinned tweet forever. I like that one.

Yeah, I might as well. It's convenient for right now, at least. Yeah. And disclaimer, that was taken in the 16th. They did not comply with your wishes. All right. Well, thank you. This was a pleasure. Glad you could come on. Thank you so wishes. All right. Well, thank you. This was a pleasure.

Glad you could come on. Thank you so much for having me. Yeah. Thank you very much. All right. So we will be right back with some additional banter and the latest on the home run rate mystery. You take me for granted.

And it's such a crying shame Cause I would gladly give my life for you Each and every day It's been a long time coming Alright, so join the Facebook group, everyone. Facebook.com slash groups slash Effectively Wild. You never know when you'll get a message from me asking you to come on the show,

although it helps if you kept score at any time in a game. So that was a pleasure. Glad Connor could come on. And now we can get to the other banter we had planned. You want to go first? Yeah. Okay.

So yesterday, yesterday, a friend of mine sent me and a Yankees fan friend, an email asking innocently if a, if a fan has ever assassinated a team's closer before this was on the heels of Francisco Rodriguez blowing another save for the Tigers. I think I mentioned friend as a Tigers fan. Anyway, fan has ever assassinated a team's closer before uh this was on the heels of francisco rodriguez blowing another save for the tigers i think i mentioned friend as a tigers fan anyway long story short the email chain did continue and i wound up receiving a link to a new york times

story from september 1995 i do not know how famous this story is so if all of you already know this story then i'm sorry for being the one person who's been in the dark. But I am just going to read this article mostly from start to finish. There's a little stuff I'll skip. But anyway, Chicago, September 28th. This is from 1995. I guess this is more of like an AP story than it is an AP story. Not New York Times in any case. Okay.

Chicago, September 28th. M-Dash, a 27-year-old bond trader ran on the field and attacked Randy Myers of the Chicago Cubs moments after the reliever gave up a home run today that could have cost his team a chance at the National League wildcard spot. The incident happened after pinch hitter James Mouton hit a two-run homer that put the Houston Astros ahead by 9-7 in the eighth inning. Then a man jumped from the Wrigley Field stands, crossed the first baseline, and ran toward the 6'1", 230-pound pitcher. Myers saw the fan coming, dropped his glove and knocked him down with his forearm. The two were rolling on the ground near the pitcher's mound and Myers had the man

pinned when several Cubs players broke up the fight. Quote, his hand started reaching for what I thought was a weapon, said Myers, skilled in martial arts. Whoops. Quote, I made sure his hands didn't go into his waistband and pull out a knife or a gun. Quote, I made sure his hands didn't go into his waistband and pull out a knife or a gun. The fan, John Murray of suburban Riverside, Illinois,

was removed by Wrigley Field security officers and taken to Town Hall. Police lock up about five blocks from the ballpark. The police said Murray, 6'1", 185 pounds, was not armed. A man identified by the police as Murray's brother said he was at the game when myers was brought into relief quote if he throws another home run i'm gonna run out there and give him what for the man who did not give his name quoted his brother as saying murray was charged with assault

and disorderly conduct he was released on 75 bond and a court date was set for october 24th there are a few more paragraphs in here not as as fun to read. The picture is no longer part of the link, but there is a note that Randy Myers was a member of the Nasty Boys in the Cincinnati Bullpen in 1990. He was known as a tough guy who collects military memorabilia. And I think maybe the other best part of the story, aside from the story itself, is that ultimately in 11 innings, the Chicago Cubs won in a walk-off over the Houston Astros, preserving their wildcard position. They rallied from a deficit in the sixth inning,

then in the seventh inning, then in the eighth inning, then in the 10th inning, and finally in the 11th. After falling behind 11 to 10, the Cubs rallied and won on a game-winning run scored by one Scott Bullitt. I don't know who that is, who he ever was,

but there's your Scott Bullitt reference in a game in which Randy Myers was attacked because somebody wanted to give him the what-for. Connor definitely would have stayed to score that one. That's an easy one. The funny thing is that Randy Myers led the league in saves that year, 1995. Although he wasn't actually that good, but still, he led the league in saves that year 1995 although he wasn't actually that good but still he led the league and saves he wouldn't think he'd be the the one to get attacked if someone was going to get attacked he gave up seven home runs not a big deal better than average era he wasn't terrible

no not too bad it is on his wikipedia page but i'm not sure how famous this story is but i certainly didn't remember the details good one one. And speaking of closers, I have to at least acknowledge Matt Albers on the show, just because on our most recent episode, we were talking about how Matt Albers had been robbed of save opportunities. And then, of course, shortly after that episode was posted on Friday night, Matt Albers finally broke through And got his first save And it was as glorious as I had always imagined it being He was trending on Twitter Somehow I don't even know

Exactly what's required to trend on Twitter At whatever it was 10.30 on a Friday night on the east coast but he was And there were just So many things to like about this I like that there was some Tension you know because he did give up a base runner. So the tying run was at the plate.

He hit a guy to lead off the inning, and that was sort of scary. There was a point where Oliver Perez was warming up during the inning, and they cut to show him in the bullpen. And it seemed like it was all set up for albers to be pulled with two outs or something tantalizingly close to getting the save and then there was his own reaction to the save i remember asking albers and webb when i talked to them for that grantland article if they had any sort of save celebration planned and i think they said they didn't really and we didn't get to see what he would have done if he had struck out the last batter. That didn't happen. But his reaction was just very genuine and heartfelt.

He just sort of broke into a big old smile and turned around and it looked like he was relieved and just happy to be there. It was definitely not your typical intimidating post-save celebration. There wasn't anything scripted. I kind of wish that he had somersaulted or something like that, but if he wasn't going to do that, at least we got that genuine emotion on his face. That was nice to see. Some other things I enjoyed about that night, the furor in the Facebook group was extreme. There were like 20 different threads started at approximately the same time when Albers was warming up and coming in. Someone compared it to the Cubs winning the World Series,

except that the Cubs had previously won a World Series and Albers had never previously had a save. So in this commenter's mind, it topped the Cubs achievement. I love that he did it for the team with the best record in baseball, or at least the best record in baseball at the time. You would have thought that after waiting all those years, it would have been some garbage save for an out of contention team. Instead, it was for the team with the most wins in baseball that happened to have a bit of a mess of a bullpen at the time. He, in his postgame interview, said it was the best team he's been on by far. So this was maybe an improbable time for him to finally get this save, but he did.

Other things I like, he now has the most games finished with one save. He is beating Fernando Abad by, I think, 19 games finished in that category. I also enjoyed that on Sunday there was a rumor circulating on Twitter that the Nationals are scouting David Robertson and that a deal was close or something, which I don't know if that is true or if that's going to happen. But I like that immediately after he got his first save, no one was like, we found our solution. We found our closer. We were like, we better get David Robertson because Matt Albers is saving games for us. And then on Sunday, he got another chance to save a game and he promptly gave up a game tying three get another chance after that, but he is on the board. And also I saw someone tweeted at me that Albers was quoted as saying, a couple of years

ago, they did a little story. I can't remember who, but obviously they knew I hadn't got a save. I didn't really think anything of it. So it's nice to get this one. It's not fun, but it's not the end of the world. So, evidently, Albers has not been thinking about me as much as I've been thinking about him. But he does remember that someone did a little story about this a couple years ago.

I would have called it a big story, landmark milestone story, but I guess to each his own. And then the last fun thing about this i think is that i tweeted after he got it sort of just congratulating matt albers and saying long live ryan webb in the tweet because of course ryan webb was already the career leader in all times games finished without a save but now is totally uncontested with 105 and ryan webb liked that tweet ryan webb is on twitter he is evidently name searching and uh he saw my tweet about him

i don't know what to make of the fact that he liked the tweet when we recently analyzed that who was it on the cardinals who liked a tweet that we were talking about? Tommy Pham. Yeah, right. Tommy Pham liked a tweet about the defensive play of Matt Adams, who had sort of displaced him in the outfield. And the implication there was clear. I don't know whether Ryan Webb liking this tweet. I don't know whether it is just automatic because he, the thing is, he is not like a compulsive liker. I looked at his likes, and he hadn't liked any tweets since a February tweet by the official Brewers account about pitchers and catchers reporting. So in the intervening two and a half months or so, he had not liked any tweets. He did like this tweet. That could be because no one has tweeted about Ryan Webb for two and a half months, for all I know.

But do you think that this means that he's just happy to be acknowledged? Do you think it means that he is happy to be alone in first place on the all-time games finished without a save leaderboard? He has no competition now. He's got this all to himself. Or do you think he liked it because Albers getting a save just goes to show that even Webb could someday get a save? I think it's in part,

in large part, it's probably just fun to be acknowledged. And it's also, I'm sure Ryan Webb knows he is, how old is Ryan Webb at this point? He is 31 years old. He knows he's not going to have some sort of career enlightenment. He's not going to probably be some sort of breakthrough impact. Major League Believer, his best days presumably are behind him. So if you can't exist as one of the best of all time, it's probably at least fun to make your mark in some kind of way that's unique. And you know, as a lot of people will argue, there are not shades of unique. You either have something that's unique or you don't. And now Ryan Webb does truly have something all to himself. Although I would like to point out Ryan Webb pitching for the Sacramento Rivercats

on May 2nd, wrote a save. All right. And on May 4th, he recorded another. All right. Did he have saves before? I remember looking at this before, but I forget whether he had minor league saves. Because one of them didn't even have a minor league save. Okay.

That's probably Albert's then. Webb had not recorded a minor league save since 2010. Clearly not something that he does a lot of, but he is at least in a closing situation for a team that is major league adjacent. Yeah, Matt Albers has zero career minor league saves. So this was his first professional save, first save at any level. And he's 34 and Webb's only 31. at any level and he's 34 and Webb's only 31 so there is certainly time for Webb to have a season where he doesn't give up any runs for a while and finds himself as the the best guy in a bullpen

at a certain time the best guy after going through like five other guys yeah I guess that's more accurate but anyway we were also talking about whether I was rooting for him to get the save or not. And I was conflicted about that. And when I was actually watching him go for the save, I was rooting for him. And maybe that has something to do with the fact that Ryan Webb is out there. Ryan Webb has the record. So this is still something that I can think about and have fun tracking. And Albers was not the record holder anyway.

But I think seeing him try to do it, I wanted him to succeed. And the smile that lit up his face after he recorded the final out was confirmation of the fact that Matt Albers getting a save was something to root for. So glad it finally happened and that everyone got to experience it on Twitter and in the Facebook group together. It was a fun night. And as for the actual topic for today, now that we've already talked for a full episode length,

but this probably won't be too long because it's something that we've talked about before, we've written about extensively. I do have something new to bring to the discussion. So, home runs. You wrote about home runs last week. I'm writing about home runs for this week. Everyone's writing about home runs. And I wrote about home runs in spring training because spring training home run rates were up slightly over last year. And so it looked like regular season rates would probably be up slightly. And so they are. This is the highest home run rate year on record. And so having it continue and perhaps only accelerate has only fanned the flames of the ball must be juiced conspiracy theorists or just theorists. It doesn't have to be a conspiracy. And I have been one of those. I haven't definitively stated that it has to be the ball. I've never had any proof that it was the ball, but nothing else seemed as compelling an explanation to me. And I've been able to rule out some explanations, although not others. So I finally got the documents. I got copies of

MLB's ball testing results, which I've been asking for for a while because MLB does test the balls three times a season. They've been doing this for quite a while because MLB does test the balls three times a season. They've been doing this for quite a while. And they have made statements last season, I think, to the effect that there had been no significant difference in the ball testing, but they hadn't ever released the ball testing results to anyone, which seemed somewhat suspicious if you were conspiracy inclined, that they wouldn't put that out there. And just as long as they weren't out there, there was my getting to see it, but I have it and I talked to Alan Nathan about it, our physics consultant, expert on the physics of baseball, impartial source, as far as I know, very well-informed source, and he has also reviewed the results. And the upshot is that there is no evidence based on this testing that the ball is different in any

way. And I got copies of reports from July 2016 and also February of this year, and the testing goes back to 2004. So this is the 14th season that they've been conducting testing in roughly this way. The lab at UMass Lowell that's been doing it for MLB since the late 90s. And it's basically every conceivable test that you could perform on a baseball size and weight. The coefficient of restitution, the cylindrical coefficient of restitution, which is where the ball is fired at a higher speed and it bounces off a cylinder like a bat instead of a flat plane, seam height, seam height variance, hardness of the baseball. It seems very comprehensive and essentially there's nothing that points to the baseball being the culprit here. All of the values are in line with MLB specifications

and roughly in line with previous seasons. There's a little deviation here and there from year to year and batch of baseballs to batch of baseballs, but this is not like a test of one ball. They got a couple dozen balls from five different teams that were going to be used in games. So these are game balls, basically, that hadn't been used yet. And other balls were tested this year. And so I certainly

had strong suspicions that it was something to do with the ball. But based on this, you'd have to say that MLB was falsifying the results or making up data or something to persist in the belief that it's the baseball. So now that I've seen the data and talked to Alan about it and gotten his opinion, which is the same, which is that it's pretty conclusive, or at least that there's no evidence, I guess we have to accept that based on that, the baseball's the same baseball. And so that leaves me, if anything, more mystified than before. And Alan felt the same way. And so that leaves me, if anything, more mystified than before and Alan felt the same way. So I don't exactly know how to explain what we've seen, but I can no longer default to the baseball assumption with the same confidence. Obviously, MLB has an interest

here in not being perceived to be tampering with the baseball. And I can't verify that these tests were performed exactly the way they were performed. I can't verify that these tests were performed exactly the way they were performed. I can't verify that all the data in the reports is accurate. So I am passing on the evidence that MLB is offering and people can make of it what they will. So now people who say that the ball is different would be conspiracy theorists. Officially, upon the private release of these documents documents it would be a conspiracy because the only explanation involving the ball would involve either falsification or i guess the related falsification by study omission right it should not come as a tremendous surprise that

baseball would issue documents i'm going to sound like a conspiracy theorist here but i'm still going to do it anyway it should come as no surprise that baseball would issue documents purporting to show that there is no change in the ball when they have made public statements saying there is no change in the ball. I don't know why they would give any writer, certainly a higher profile writer, access to documents that prove that baseball has been

lying. Nevertheless, the situation remains uncomfortably unexplained. I am totally on board with pitchers working differently, but specifically pitchers working differently but specifically hitters working differently trying to hit low pitches and sinkers and trying to hit more fly balls because the shift and all that stuff but the thing that just drives both of us i'm sure identical amounts of crazy is the suddenness with which this pattern emerged in the second half of

2015 it doesn't make any sense to me because you never you never ever ever see any sort of change like that just happen all of a sudden think about the shift what could be more obvious than shifting your defense that has taken years to the point where the league was saturated by shifts and i'm just what i'll i'll give it back to you because i think you're just champing at the bit to say something else or agree but it just it's still so unsatisfying it is is. Yeah. I wish there were an answer. I wish I had one. I don't, it doesn't seem just from talking to MLB people kind of on background, it doesn't seem as if they are convinced of any particular explanation. Like they are looking at the same things that everyone else is looking at. Pitchers throwing harder, hitters maybe swinging harder, swinging

differently, but it doesn't sound as if they, you know, I asked like, okay, if it's not the ball, what have you decided it is? Because obviously this is something that they've talked about and investigated to the extent that they can. And it just, it doesn't seem like they have any conclusion that is definitive. So I don't know what to make of this. And I guess the interesting thing to me is that, like, I mean, I never really thought that MLB had tampered with the ball. I thought that if the ball had changed, it was just as likely that it had happened kind of fortuitously or by accident. You know, you can change the manufacturing process just a little bit and the balls can be a little bit different and that can produce a big difference. And I thought that was a possible thing too. So if that's not it, I just don't know. I mean, if you told me that home run rates were at the highest level ever, which they are, that in itself, I suppose,

would not be enough to confuse me. I mean, that's certainly possible. You've got guys throwing harder. You've got guys swinging for the fences or not worrying about the strikeout. Maybe they're more focused on their launch angles or their swing planes or whatever. So just the fact that home run rates are super high is not in itself suspicious, I suppose. But the fact that it happened so suddenly, as you said, is the thing that has always mystified me and still mystifies me, that this change league-wide could happen at the 2015 All-Star break just almost overnight,

basically going from what was normal home run rates at the time to pushing highest home run rates ever just didn't seem like something that could be the result of a philosophical change or a change in approach among enough hitters to make that sort of difference. So I guess the implications of this, if it had been the ball, then you could say that I guess as long as baseball kept making the ball that way, the scoring problems wouldn't become a bigger problem because really the home run rate is the only thing that's sort of bailing baseball out of another dead ball era right now because that's what we were seeing essentially in 2014. Everyone was talking about how no one was scoring. Since then, strikeout rates have only risen

and there's no real prospect for them to stop rising without intervention. And so if it had been the ball, then you could say, well, as long as they don't change the ball, they can keep propping up the run scoring rates. If it's not the ball, then baseball is vulnerable, right? Because if this is a change that hitters have made, then in theory, pitchers could counter that change. And you have done some articles looking at whether that's happening. And so historically speaking, pitchers kind of gain the upper hand over time. If it is a batter change

that then can be countered by pitchers, then in theory, at least you could see the home run rates go away while everything else stays the same. And then baseball could be in trouble if you consider low scoring trouble. Well, then they could be in trouble if you consider low scoring trouble well then they could just change the baseball right exactly yeah you're you're right because it seems like as i had as has been written about the natural response to at least the the people like justin turner or jd martinez etc is you just throw the ball high in the zone and then they have trouble hitting those pitches and that's that's just it not every hitter has trouble with that aaron judge has flattened his swing and he's gotten better

jean carlos stan and nelson cruz there are two guys who have flat swings and still hit for power so it's not like every single power hitter has that that sort of vulnerability but it would be the pattern you would expect to see uh based on the home run trend i guess we just now would expect it to show up all of a sudden one all-star break i guess that's just how patterns emerge these days but you're right because that would presumably not make walks go down or up at all it wouldn't change strikeouts or probably lead to more strikeouts and it would seem to reduce the power and then at that point i don't know what hitters would do so it does seem to make the game more vulnerable in that sense because the trends that are not going away are swings and misses or or strikeouts whatever you want to say there are so many things that

remain uncomfortable and kind of unsettled like you said it's not a surprise that home run rate would be at its highest ever mark i can i can buy that i can see that that's where the game is trended no matter how that trend weirdly began but as always pitchers seem like they should be ahead and and so i think this this seems like another one of those situations where rob manfred can be comfortable but also needs to think proactively and so we'll see what actually happens with the strike zone we'll see if the strike zone stays smaller uh john rogel wrote a recent article at fangraphs talking about how the strike zone has been a little bit smaller, I believe, in the early going this year. Not dramatically, and there were some issues with the tracking technology, etc.

So it's too soon to say too much, but it does seem like baseball really does need still a smaller zone, at least to the standards of a few years ago and and it becomes time to start thinking uh if trends go as they have gone where you start thinking well maybe the mound needs to be adjusted because if velocity keeps climbing then the game is just too different but that's that's a different podcast and that's also a podcast you've already had before yeah anyway it was uh fun to speculate about juiced ball but i guess we have learned something and also learned that we know even less about something potentially than we thought we did. So the plot thickens. This is the latest development. So if you have any competing theories, feel free to write in and let us know. Do you think a ball would go further or less far if it was actually filled with juice?

I would guess less far I also think less far but I think that I don't know it's something they should find out I don't think that was included In these ball testing results Although they were pretty comprehensive Otherwise alright So we can leave it there

You can support the podcast on Patreon by going to Patreon.com slash effectively wild Five listeners who've already done so include Todd Rogers, Ronald Janiszewski, Aaron Hartman, Sean P. Montana, and Kyle Crow. Thanks to all of you. You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash groups slash effectivelywild. You can rate and review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on iTunes. If you're looking for something else to listen to, the latest episode of the Ringer MLB show features me and Michael and Meg Rowley talking to pitch showrunner Kevin Falls, doing a pitch post-mortem, reflecting on what worked and what didn't in the show, whether there's any hope of bringing it back in some form, what other creators can learn from its unfortunate failure to connect with a large enough audience to get renewed by Fox. Thanks to Dylan Higgins for editing assistance.

a large enough audience to get renewed by Fox. Thanks to Dylan Higgins for editing assistance. You can contact me and Jeff with comments and questions via email at podcastandfangraphs.com or via the Patreon messaging system. We will talk to you soon. Heart in your heart Heart in your heart