Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 1088: Sabermetrics Meets Japan

Episode Date: July 26, 2017

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about a Royals-Padres trade, Khris Davis’s arm, Keon Broxton’s demotion, Clayton Kershaw’s injury ,and the Dodgers’ degree of need for a starter, then talk to Shingo Murata, baseball strategy group manager for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles (the team with the best record in Nippon Professional Baseball), about how […]

Just like in travel brochures, Discovering Japan Discovering Japan Discovering Japan Discovering Japan It's got to ring a bell in this episode. We are going abroad. This is something that I love to do periodically on this podcast is talk to people who are interested in analytics and work in sabermetrics in some capacity in other countries. We have talked a lot about this country's sabermetrics. It might even be the main topic of this podcast, but when we can talk to someone who does this in some far-flung region, that's always entertaining to me. So episode 887, we talked to a sabermetrician in the Mexican League, and then episode 700,

we talked to someone who does sabermetrics in Australia. Episode 426, we did sabermetrics in Cuba, and today we are doing sabermetrics in Japan. We are going to talk to Shingo Murata, who does sabermetrics and analytics for the best team in Japan currently. So that is fun. And I had a Venezuelan sabermetrician on the Ringer MLB show once also. So it's like a very we are the world kind of thing. There are nerds everywhere. And I like talking to them about how things are different where they are but also

the same and as you pointed out to me it is also a good way to actually talk to someone who will talk about what they do because talking to someone who works for a major league team is a recipe for non-answers and non-disclosures which is understandable but often dull. You had the article published titled the bill james of japan and you could previously have articles titled the bill james of cuba and the bill james of venezuela you know one of the only things stopping you from being the bill james of some other country is just your own your own incentive you're sure there's a language barrier but if you wanted to be the bill james of south korea doors open yeah sure and if you want to be

the bill james of south africa all South countries, then there's also an opportunity there. There might be a little bit of a homebody. a sabermetric pioneer in Japan, and he started this group called Delta Graphs, which basically has recreated fan graphs, but for Japanese baseball. And you can all check out their website. It's linked in the story at the ringer, and it's very detailed, like anything you can find on fan graphs, you can find on Delta Graphs for NPB. So it was very exciting when I discovered it last year when I was writing about Shohei Otani and Takuya Nakashima. So he has a really interesting story and it's a growing movement there, but nowhere to the point where it is here. So I'm interested in tracking its progress. But people care about trades probably right now because we are less than a week away from the trade deadline.

And I know that you are in a constant state of either responding to trades or preparing to respond to trades. So you did have one that you actually were able to write about, right? The Royals are buyers and you are intrigued by one of the players in this deal, according to the headline on your post. It's really, it's a constant state of panic. Like right now, as we are recording this, there's rumors linking the Brewers to Ian Kinsler and Justin Wilson there's stuff saying a Mark Feinstein Saying the Yankees are quote making progress toward a trade with the A's that would involve both Sonny Gray and Yonder Alonso so there's just like a lot that's always almost happening like kind of Happening and in a sense this doesn't mean very much because of course teams are talking and this

Is just the fact that we're getting reports that teams are talking. But it's not a surprise to hear that maybe the Brewers have been talking to the Tigers for weeks about Ian Kinzler and Justin Wilson. But as soon as you see a tweet that goes out there, you think, ah, it could happen at any moment. You got to react. But yeah, the Royals made the boring trade on Monday. That's only, I would say maybe it's a boring trade to the average fan. But my job is to try to spruce these things up. And I think that Trevor Cahill is legitimately interesting. He was one of those scrap heap free agent starting pitchers the Padres found because they found their entire starting rotation on the scrap heap for about a million and a half dollars and one year contract. worked out aside from the fact that he missed a bunch of starts with a shoulder problem, which is one of the worst things that a pitcher can do as long as he's still pitching. But when Cahill has

been able to pitch, he has gone back to starting for the first time in years. He's striking people out more than ever. He's still walking guys a little bit too often. But when you have better strikeouts than ever and still a whole bunch of ground balls and this really incredible curveball that is just messing with hitters abilities to know what the strike zone looks like and how to act around it then Cahill becomes really interesting he has a really really low rate of contact allowed which is not something that you ordinarily would associate with Trevor Cahill so he seems like a neat little possible buy low for the Royals it's a short-term commitment he costs virtually nothing and he's he's a potential improvement for the Royals looking

at his peripherals he's been about as effective when he's pitched's a potential improvement for the royals looking at his peripherals he's been about as effective when he's pitched this year as sonny gray who is the centerpiece of probably the next and only blockbuster of the deadline so i'm not saying that trevor cahill is as good as sonny gray he's almost certainly not but the numbers are there and the royals are taking a chance and whoever gets sonny gray will be taking their own chance because gray has had his own injury problems so c Cahill, interesting. Ryan Bookter, interesting enough. Brandon Maurer, he is interesting because since he debuted in the major leagues, no one, no one has been worse with runners on base relative to how they've pitched with the bases empty. I know this is,

you know, this is okay. You're listening to Brandon Maurer talk right now in this section of the podcast. Just accept that something better will happen soon. But Brandon Maurer, he came up with the Mariners. He was an interesting starting pitcher, prospect, whatever. Bombed as a starter, went to the bullpen, has closed for the Padres, but that's not really praise. And he has been super good with the bases empty. And then when runners have been on, he's been, I don't know, he's allowed hitters to hit

as if they're literally Miguel Cabrera, I guess. guess he's been so so much worse with runners on base and i checked the video it seems like it's even though he's a reliever he still has the wind up and the stretch so he seems like he is just a lot worse from the stretch so i don't know that seems like it's a major problem for him moving forward or maybe it's not we never really know with these things and there is a travis wood going the other way nobody cares there is an 18 year old in the low minors some people care but opinions are mixed and then there's matt strom who is the well he's definitely the most familiar player in there among players that the royals had who were young and vaguely interesting it's a it's been a thin system but strom had a promising debut last year less promising sophomore

campaign this year but he has a good fastball he has a sharp looking curveball and he recently had season-ending knee surgery so he's someone who could start for the Padres next year I like him as a get for them I like Cahill as a get for the Royals I like this trade I like this trade somehow 1600 words were written about it I don't know how that happened how that ever happens I imagine that when Sonny Gray gets traded I will not write more words than that so maybe that ever happens i imagine that when sonny gray gets traded i will not write more words than that so maybe that seems like it's an unnecessary imbalance but what's done is done i suppose why does brandon mauer not pronounce the first r in his name that's

what i want to know i guess if you say it it's one of those names where it's hard to tell if you're saying it that would be tough to say. Yeah. Maurer. Maurer. Maurer versus Maurer. I guess now that I say it out loud, I guess I understand why it might be just easier to go by Maurer rather than try to pronounce two R's separated by an E.

That's not easy. That first R is kind of like a speed bump if you try to pronounce it. If you say Brandon Maurer, you have to slow yourself down, which nobody wants. Everyone's in a hurry these days. You just want to say Brandon Maurer. People know who you mean. There's no other Maurer. And, you know, you just treat it as a semi-silent R.

I don't think it's a big deal. It would be weirder if the second R were silent, I guess. Yeah. So, Keon Broxton, minor leaguer these days. minor leaguer these days. Is there any positive that you can salvage from Keon Broxton's season and his demotion? He did walk twice in his first game in Colorado Springs without striking out, so that's something. And he went three for three. Yeah. Yeah. I suspect Broxton will be back before long, but the slump is bad. And look, I'm not Keon Broxton. I'm not related to Keon Broxton will be back before long, but the slump is bad. And look, I'm not Keon Broxton.

I'm not related to Keon Broxton. I have no actual investment in Keon Broxton's career or progress. I still believe he's a good player. He is clearly a very powerful player who is quick, and he plays better defense than the numbers currently give him credit for. That I will stand by. But yeah, he has a contact problem. And there's not really any getting around that and uh his slump has been deep i know or at least i'm sure that the brewers understand that kian broxton is still really useful in his roughly

full season equivalent of playing time in his major league career he's been worth two and a half wins which is good so he's still someone who should be helpful but you know he's in a slump sometimes people slump i'm sure miguel cabrera has slumped. Joey Votto has slumped. Am I comparing Keon Broxson to Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto? You could say that I am if you wanted to. The trade rumors beat and the trade reactions beat and the outfield arms beat. It's an interesting combination of topics to cover this week. I don't know if we want to get into that, but you have pointed out that Chris Davis has no arm. So Chris Davis, no, everybody understands Chris Davis doesn't have an arm. This is for, people know three things about Chris Davis.

They know that he is a lot like the other Chris Davis. They know that he hits the crap out of the ball when he makes contact. And I think they know that he doesn't have a throwing arm. Now, that's one of those things that maybe fans of the teams with Chris Davis know better than fans of other teams who don't pay Chris Davis too much attention. But his throwing arm has been weak for a while. I've heard that he sustained a shoulder injury in college, I believe it was, that he just hasn't recovered from. Obviously not linked to his

massive massive batting power so chris davis still strong except in the one way where he is trying to return the ball to the infield he currently has and the season of course is not over but we have 15 this is the 15th year of of a single season data for arm ratings for both defensive runs saved and uzr ultimate zone rating so they both have arm value measurements and they are a little bit different mostly the same of course there's a good correlation and according to both of those measures chris davis is in the midst of what would be very easily the worst throwing arm season in a decade and a half for an outfielder he is uh i wouldn't even say edging he is beating the crap out of like 2013 juan pierre for the worst season on brief historical record chris davis he

has one assist this season i've written a whole post about chris davis having four outfield assists before and i feel bad because it's kind of piling on because i don't think i've written much about his like incredible power and good other skills. But he rates as a terrible defensive corner outfielder only because of his arm. His range is fine, but he has one assist this season. And on that one assist, he caught a can of corn routine fly ball left field. And Jose Ramirez took off from first base and lost the ball and stayed at second base for a little long. And then Chris Davis returned the ball to the cutoff man who then threw the ball at the first base. So Davis was scripted with an assist assist even though it was a secondary assist I should also say that

when he threw the ball to the cutoff man who was standing maybe 75 feet away he missed the cutoff man by probably about 20 feet and the cutoff man had to leave his feet and stretch to catch the ball before he could relay the ball to first base to get Ramirez out but Chris Davis does have that one assist it It's one of those assists that makes you wish that they would take better care to designate what assists actually are for players. Because when you go in, if you ever do any research on the assists that outfielders have recorded half the time, they're not really the assists that you imagine. And that can be really frustrating when you're trying to write about them, say Bradley Zimmer and his

really strong arm and you're trying to find a good highlight, but you just see him throwing the ball to the cutoff man nobody wants a clip of bradley zimmer throwing the ball to the cutoff man you want the clip of him throwing a guy out at home that took a while to find it seems like those skills or one skill and lack of skill should not coincide in one player like you shouldn't be incredibly powerful and a slugger and yet also have an extremely weak arm it seems like that just shouldn't go together that often, but every now and then you do see it. Like Juan Pierre having a weak arm, sure, that's Juan Pierre for you. He was weak in many facets of his game, although he was still a good player at times. But Chris Davis being the guy who can't throw very well, I mean,

even if it's injury related, it always seems strange to me that those two things would be in one person and that like the weakness of your throwing would not affect the strength of your swing, which in this case, it does not. I guess, let's see, Davis, he throws righty, he bats righty. So we can assume then the damage, assuming this is the reason that the damage is in his right shoulder. And I guess as a hitter, I don't understand that much about the, I don't know, muscularity of hitting mechanics. But it seems like most of your strength is coming from your lead shoulder. So if you're batting righty, it would be your left shoulder, right? I'm imagining a swing.

And, you know, the right shoulder can't be dead or, like, shattered. You can't be in blinding pain when you're swinging. But I'm just looking for a reason because clearly this is something that he packages together. So just because of Chris Davis alone, it obviously can work like this, even though I'm sure that Davis wishes that it could not. Right. And as you pointed out, Bradley Zimmer is the anti-Chris Davis, very good arm, statistically and stat cast wise. So maybe last thing, everyone has written a Clayton Kershaw opinion piece this week, whether it's Dodgers need to trade for Ace written a Clayton Kershaw opinion piece this week, whether it's Dodgers need to trade for Ace to replace Clayton Kershaw or Dodgers don't

need to replace Clayton Kershaw with Ace. And really, maybe it's a silly discussion because it all kind of comes down to whether Clayton Kershaw is healthy and will be healthy. And we don't have a whole lot of insight into that. We know only what has become public, which makes it seem like he's probably going to be okay, and it's not the same injury as last year, and four to six weeks, and that won't be crushing. He'll be back for September, and then he'll be back for October, but we don't really know, and maybe the Dodgers have more insight into that than we do.

So that's really what it comes down to right because with Kershaw the Dodgers look like one of the best teams we've seen in years and without Kershaw they are still excellent and in no trouble at all for the regular season but obviously it hurts a lot in October and then once you lose Kershaw then suddenly that whole rotation starts looking kind of thin and shaky because it's one thing when Rich Hill and Alex Wood are your second and third guys or McCarthy is your fourth guy. But when you shift them all up a spot, suddenly it seems kind of scary because you're actually counting on them. And historically, counting on them has been a risky endeavor. So really, it all just kind of comes down to is Kershaw going to be back? And

what kind of deal can you get? But what was your approach to writing about and answering this question? My approach was that Dave asked if I wanted to write about the Dodgers and you Darvish, and then he asked me a little more forcefully. And I said, Okay, well, I better ask Ben if I can move recording the podcast a little later, because this is supposed to go up earlier in the day than usual. I think it comes down to a matter of internal trust. Like you said, if you take Kershaw away, then the Dodgers pitching staff, of course, looks weaker. What is interesting is that on a rate basis, if you take Kershaw away, the Dodgers have still had the second best pitching staff in all of Major League Baseball, behind only the Cleveland Indians. That's using wins above replacement and etc. You don't need just trust me. Just trust me. So you take Kershaw away and

the Dodgers look worse from what it sounds like Kershaw will be okay to return. And we saw him come back and pitch effectively from a back injury last season. So I don't think the Dodgers concerns are raised too much. And the reality is that this year, Rich Hill has gotten himself straightened out, so he looks really good again. And more importantly, Alex Wood has been an ace. He's pitched like an ace when he's been on the mound. He's been absolutely incredible. And if you look through the remainder

of the Dodgers pitching staff behind them, there's a lot of depth. But of course, the Dodgers have been built around this pitching risk, and you never really know what to make of their DL stints because they seem quite often manufactured so you don't want to take them as as indications of actual injury but of course guys like mccarthy and wood and hill have and ryu and maeda and etc everyone but kenley jansen has some sort of extended tricky health background so there is reason for concern. And so the Dodgers

could try to make a move just to bolster their own staff just for, I guess you could say, FU depth is something that they could accumulate if they wanted to. But I think my favorite fact that I pulled up, even though it's not something that we usually rely on, but I think so much of the talk about this stuff stems from this belief that you could sort of playoff proof a roster which we know isn't true we know that the the 2011 phillies had like the best starting rotation that anyone has ever seen at least in the last several decades and they lost in the first round to the cardinals and they had holiday lee oswald the other one hamels hamels was the other one it didn't work out and you think well how how important would it be to get you darvish well last year Darvish started one game in the playoffs. He allowed five runs in five

innings. In the last two years, the Texas Rangers have been a pretty good baseball team overall, and they've actually lost more of Darvish's starts than they've won. That doesn't mean that Yu Darvish isn't a very good starting pitcher. It doesn't mean he wouldn't make the Dodgers better. But you can't really look at these things through the lens of add Darvish and the team is unbeatable because it's not we know that it's not that's not how these things work and if the difference between you Darvish picking up you Darvish and starting I don't know Maeda or Ryu in the playoffs is a few runs maybe well is that going to be worth Alex Verdugo or one of the other top prospects in the system and I have a lot of trouble believing that that it would be and I I suspect that the Dodgers front office is in agreement

because they have not operated in this way before. Yeah, that's right. All right. By the way, I booked my trip to Salina, so it's happening. Fantastic. I'll be recording at least one episode of Effectively Wild, I think, from Salina, Kansas, assuming the hotel Wi-Fi is up to the task. I am on the trade beat and you could not be less on the trade beat.

So I'm writing about statistical pioneers in Japan and the Salina stockade who were sadly swept over the weekend by the St. Paul Saints after they bounced back after we talked about them and had been playing a bit better. But yeah, St. Paul Saints are a tough opponent. You can talk to them about regression to the mean. All right. So we will be back after a very quick break with Shingo Murata.なが見ていますme 1本2ストライク 4球目me

me me me me me meme All right, so we are joined now by Shingo Murata. He is the manager of the baseball strategy group for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles. Hello, Shingo.

Hi. Hi. So tell us where you are right now and what you do and how you got to where you are, because you have a very interesting resume just from Google stalking you. It seems like you've taken a very interesting path to the Golden Eagles. So I am currently in the city called Sendai, which is about 200 miles north of Tokyo. So where the Golden Eagles are based out of. I actually lived in US for 18 years and actually started my career working at Stats in the suburb outside of Chicago. I came back to Japan in 2015 and was working more on the media side dealing with sports data and I was fortunate

enough to have the Golden Eagles offer me a position in baseball operations and I've been here since November of last year. And mainly right now I'm focused on building up a data structure and infrastructure. So setting up a database and having analytics site that is dedicated solely for baseball strategy, and also just kind of trying to come up with new and different analytics that has not existed here before. Yeah. And it seems like someone's doing a good job with your team because you guys have the best record in NPB right now as we speak. The Golden Eagles are 55 and 25. That is best record in the Pacific Division and also better than any team in the Central League. So that's good. Congratulations. I'm sure it was all you're doing. So how does one

typically get a job with an NPB team? Because I think just looking at your background, it seems like you have a lot of programming and coding experience. And of course, that is how a lot of people get jobs with MLP teams. But it seems like that has not been the case for very long with NPB teams. I think still because all the teams are owned by a larger parent company. And a lot of them are still owned by companies like newspapers and train companies that started having a baseball team in order to sell more newspapers or have more passengers on the trains. A lot of people still come from those parent companies without really specific baseball background or programming background. specific baseball background or programming background. And I think that has kind of been hard for any so-called outsider who wanted to get in to have a job within baseball. But with

the Eagles and a couple other teams that are owned by technology companies that are trying to be more data driven, they have started to have more positions open and be posting them on their websites and things or, you know, so some of the guys on my team have come just straight from sending a resume in and getting an interview. Others have just come in through knowing some people within the industry. One fact of working in the baseball industry in the States is that you can't really go more than probably a couple hours checking your email or meeting someone who says that they would love to work in baseball and in some way they'd love to be a writer, they'd love to work for a team, something like that. And do you get the sense that there is anything like that same sort of

developing supply in Japan? Is this a pursuit of a lot of the younger population? Or is that something that still hasn't necessarily caught on in a widespread level? I would say has not caught on at a widespread level. I'm not saying it won't, I think it might. But there has not been like a movie or book like Moneyball that, you know, let a lot of younger people know that there is a way into working in sports through not necessarily through playing professionally that has not happened here in Japan and I think one of the other things that happens is in Japan when you go to a university you kind of have to choose a major going in and sometimes it's you know if you're going to play sports you're going

to just play sports you either play, or you go into the sciences, or you go into the humanities. So it is rare for somebody that goes into sports to also be interested in the sciences or analytics or like journalism, and vice versa. So I think that's why it's kind of hard to get a hybrid prospect that wants to do their profession just happen in baseball industry. So can you kind of sum up the state of sabermetrics in Japan, both the community online and also within the game and with teams? And I just wrote about that and talked to you about that for the article, and you gave me some really good context on where things stand right now. So if you could do the same for people listening now, that'd be great. Well, I think the company called Delta Graphs is doing a great thing

just trying to spread the principles of sabermetrics and having a site online and just introducing the concept of the concept of just like run values and things like that. I think on the field, still the old school teachings prevail, such as, you know, sacrifice bunts and valuing 300 hitters over somebody with an OPS of like 750, for example. So while it's getting there, and the younger guys coming up now have resources to learn these things in Japanese, which is fantastic. But it has not made a huge impact on the field where other teams are trying to copycat and trying to change quickly. And since you brought up the bunting, that's maybe the most obvious example of how Japanese baseball is played differently. example of how Japanese baseball is played differently. And not only from the way that MLB looks today, where bunting has never been less common, but bunting in NPB is like four times more

common than it is here and more common than it has been here since the 1930s. So it's been a very long time since Major League Baseball was played this way. Can you describe why that is? I mean, is it actually that teams believe that this is the most optimal tactic and that you're actually increasing run scoring? Or is it more of a cultural thing or like a sacrifice for the team sort of prized gesture as much as it is an actual tactic

that teams think will contribute to winning games? I think part of it is cultural and there are a couple aspects to it. One is that, so we have a huge high school tournament called Koshien that happens in the summer and the spring. And it's a huge event, almost kind of like the NCAA tournament. It's a lot of attention. But high school rosters are not constructed with as much depth. So there are some players who are just more suited to bunt than hit. So the culture to bunt and try to score minimal runs starts in high school. And I believe part of that culture remains in the pros. So even professionally where, you know, most guys have the capability to hit, they think that, you know, bunting is the proper

strategy, because that's how they've been taught to play. The other aspect of it is just culturally, you know, Japan tends to be more wary of creating losses than creating gains. So if they don't bunt and they don't score, they might look back and think like, oh no, we had a chance to score a run in that inning, but we missed out. So instead of feeling that way, probably the right thing to do is try to go for as many runs as possible in the inning. But I think just baseball still hasn't figured it out to think that way. And it's not just baseball. I think it

happens in many other sports and the outside of sports as well. You hear a lot about some of the progress, much of the progress being done right now in the major leagues is that the front offices have leaned more and more analytical over the past several years, but they have struggled for a while to be able to better communicate with the actual on-field players and the in-dugout staff. So how have you been able to try to bridge those gaps? And as you say, there's still a certain amount of, let's say, cultural resistance to some of the principles that you're trying to espouse. But how have you been able to communicate some of your ideas with the coaches and the players? I think I came into a good situation where, you know, Mr. Okada and others have kind of paved the way into having a

more direct communication with the coaches and the players. But, you know, one thing that we always try to keep in mind is that you know we don't have the answers you know they are the ones that are going to make the actual decisions you know they're gonna they have much more stake in those decisions than we do so just respecting that and also whenever they're wondering about something it can be anything small like oh like I wonder what counts you know other teams does this just always coming up with answers quickly and directly and just like you know letting them know that we want to help and we are on their side we're not just hiding in the back

office you know criticizing their decisions or anything like that but you know we are we are on the same team and just making sure that they know that and our answers are put in a direct and concise manner for them to crunch. And I think just building up the trust has been a very key element. And can you talk about the baseball strategy group that you're a part of? Who's in it? And what do you all do? What sort of input do you provide? And what kind of data do you have at your disposal? Yeah, so we have a guy kind of like a video coordinator who's also in charge of entering pitch by pitch data and tagging video. So we have the pitch by pitch info for all Pacific League games as well as tagged video. all pacific league games as well as a tagged video we also have a guy who supports the advanced scouts so helps with pulling some data out or compiling a report so he travels with the team

with the advanced scouts usually we have a we have a few guys in like r&d department. So they do regular analysis as well, but they're also looking into other new technology that might be out there that might be able to help us. And we also have a few former players who really help with the communication with the players and the coaches because they will take our output and kind of break it down and they can provide feedback to us and say like, okay, this is useful or something else might be like, okay, it's good information to know, but there's no way that can actually be executed on the field or something like that.

And you have TrackMan, right? You're one of the, I think, seven NPB teams that has a TrackMan system? Yes, we do. MLB team has at this point. So is it fair to say that the Golden Eagles are kind of the, you know, the Rays or the A's or the Indians, like that, whatever team you want to say that in the majors was at the forefront of the sabermetric movement and kind of pushing the boundaries there early on? Would you say that the Golden Eagles are that team in Japan? I'd like to think we are. I mean mean i think we are at the worst one of

the few most cutting edge uh teams in npb so we do use trackman a lot of teams still rely on the third party vendor to house all the baseball data and all the data that's being collected but we have one that's dedicated to baseball analysis only that merges pitch-by-pitch data and TrackMan and a couple other data sources. So that allows us to be a little more agile, a little more flexible in terms of the output we create. You do have the benefit of having observed a statistical revolution in a baseball league just within the past decade, decade and a half. You figure 15, 16 years ago, there might have been three or five major league baseball teams that had particularly analytical front offices, maybe even not that number. But

nowadays, it seems like every front office looks the same, functions the same, evaluates players the same. It's just widespread. And are you aware of sort of a brewing idea that NPB could go the same way? Or do you think it's still going to be some time that you have what I think we would all agree is some sort of competitive advantage within your front office? I think it's going to happen at some point. I think, you know, all the teams are going to have analytical staff within, you know, next five, 10 years. I don't think it's going to spread at the rate it did in major league just because of the cultural barrier and also the talent barrier. So I think we want to let out the notion that, you know, analytics and programming

is a way to work in professional baseball and it is a lot of fun. And then, you know, young guys might start to catch on and start to do, you know, producing some of their work themselves. But I think it's going to take a little longer for them to get seasoned enough to actually hold those positions and also for the teams to be ready to accept those guys and have them in a position to succeed. In Ben's article, you had mentioned that something like seven teams, as Ben just said, seven teams have a TrackMan system installed in the league, but it seems like maybe not every team is necessarily equipped to know how to use it properly. So what do you suppose might have compelled teams to install TrackMan systems in the first place if they don't quite know what they're doing with it yet?

I think part of it is, you know, it's not just baseball, but a lot of companies have been compelled to start collecting a lot of data. And I think in other industries, too, there are issues with they have a lot of data, but they haven't quite figured out what to do with that. And I think that has happened a little bit. And I think all teams are using it to some extent, but just not necessarily digging into all the potential. So I think teams set it up, and now they are looking for people to either operate it or do something with it. And I think they're hoping to do more. people to either operate it or do something with it. And I think they're hoping to do more. And I think part of it is that the tracking system caught on in soccer first. So soccer is,

I think, the second most popular sport in Japan, but they started using a tracking system league wide a couple of years ago. So things like distance covered and sprints started making ways onto the TV or the newspapers. And I think, you know, baseball folks probably thought, you know, that was going to be the next thing here. And they kind of jumped on it. And can you talk about the cultural barriers a little bit that you just alluded to? Because I got the sense from talking to people for this article that maybe the anti-intellectualism that you get in the US, where, you know, people just make fun of numbers and nerds and that sort of thing, is maybe not as prevalent in Japan, but that there are other obstacles that maybe make it even harder for these ideas to break through, like a, you know,

emphasis on seniority and deferring to experience that makes it tough for new ideas to come to the fore. Yeah, I mean, I think emphasis on the seniority is definitely there. Emphasis on former players is definitely there. So, you know, when you go into university, as you've chosen a science path or sports path, that just kind of creates a divide right there. or sports path that just kind of creates a divide right there. And oftentimes people don't talk across that line once, you know, they're in school, which is, I think, a little bit different from how it is in U.S. So it just, I think the tricky part is helping former players

or the senpai understand that, you know, we are, we're just here to help and we want to help and we want to win we don't want to you know tell what they're doing wrong or like we don't think what we have come up with it's the absolute right answer but we just want to have an open discussion about it but you know it's still a challenge and i think we are we are lucky to be able to do that a little more probably than some of the other teams. And you mentioned, I think, four main areas where your group contributes to decision making or at least offers input. And you mentioned, you know, kind of using TrackMan, using batted ball data to look at underlying performance and looking at relievers and how they handle working on consecutive days and sack bunt analysis and does it work or is it helping? And then you mentioned optimal positioning of outfielders based on data. shifting in Japan happening, right? Like, especially in the infield, which is just everywhere. It's ubiquitous in Major League Baseball now, but that is still not happening

in Japan. Is that the case? And if so, why? Yeah, we have not seen as many shifts. I think one reason is that the notion of loss that I referred to a little bit earlier if the ball goes to the regular short slap position who had you know shaded over to second base it's gotta be like oh like why did we do that shift and the coach would probably get criticized for it even though you know he had helped create a lot more outs than that one incident so that's one and the other is pitches are not thrown as hard as they are in the major league so it is a little easier for batters to actually direct where they're going with the ball so i think they are i think it's a little easier to beat the shift in npb than it is in MLB. And also because the concept of extra base hits and OPS hasn't fully caught on, a single to left field by a 900 OPS hitter would be considered a bad thing because

his batting average would go up. How much of your work would you say goes toward sort of trying to implement the right strategies or the right acquisition acquisitions or something along those lines versus working with individual players maybe trying to maximize their own skill sets is it still kind of focused more bigger picture or are you without of course going into detail doing a lot more sort of drilling down to try to make individual players that you already have better versions of themselves i think uh it's a little bit of a both in terms of individual players we are lucky to have a couple former players who can communicate you know with the players and the you know guys that players current players respect provide feedback in terms

of you know track man data whether if it's you know spin rates or release positions we have automated generation of a few reports where the former player can analyze it and kind of take get his take on it from his days as a player on his his days from working with the coaches and he would he would run something by the coaches hey like you know we see a trend like this you know Is it something that we can communicate? And as long as we have the coaches okay, we can bring it to the players. So we have done a lot more of that this year

and that may be helping us be in the position that we are. But we don't really bring stuff to the players unless they ask us. But I think the relationship has grown to a point where if they are curious about something, if they want to see video, they feel comfortable enough asking us. So the direct line of communication is a little stronger. Yeah, the average fastball in case people are wondering in the Pacific Division where the Golden Eagles are, according to Delta Grass, is at 89 this year,

so a little bit slower, as you were saying. So can you give any examples of how your use of analytics may have helped the team? I know you can't necessarily get into a lot of detail, but when I was talking to you via email and your superior, also, you were both kind of crediting analytics and your department for helping the Golden Eagles win their first pennant in their first Japan series in 2013. That was before you got there, of course, but that and the Golden Eagles record this year being the best in Japan. Do you see that as related to the use of analytics and information? Obviously, you're not going to take total credit and it's the players and everything,

but can you point to any areas without giving too much away where you think maybe, oh, we were able to find this player because we were looking at stats that other teams weren't or that sort of thing? And I guess I should note that you have sacrifice bunted less than any other team in the division. So there's that.

I think it's definitely the players and the managers, the manager and the coaches. I mean, they are the ones that are out there battling every day. But I think in terms of the biggest impact of analytics, just making you know we are going in the right direction so if we see a we see a trend that just catches our attention like we are we have an open discussion about it and we don't let it keep happening or let it keep going in the bad direction so you know if we see that uh guy's getting tired from some of the track band data you know we talk about it before he's injured or something like that or if we see that a guy's getting tired from some of the track band data, we talk about it before he's injured or something like that. Or if we see that a guy is actually hitting the ball really well, but his

average is just not coming up because of some bad luck, we talk about it before I get compelled to bench that player or something like that. And I wrote an article for Grantland a few years ago about how one NPB team, the Bay Stars, recruits American players and scouts American players. And I was really fascinated by how that process works. And just looking at some of the guys who've been the best for you this year, someone who is very familiar to Jeff,

I believe, Carlos Peguero, has been, according to Delta Graphs, the second most valuable hitter on the Golden Eagles this year. Oh my God. Yeah, he's been great. So could you talk about how someone like that, and this is his second season with the Golden Eagles, and he's been even better than than last year but can you talk either specifically about him or or just more broadly how do you go after players from foreign leagues and and how do you try to evaluate whether they will succeed in npb we have a few scouts in us that are you know looking at the players and that are to have communication with the teams. I think the biggest hurdle to acquisition is just, you know, the major league team not wanting to let them come to Japan, right?

So we need to find guys that may be out of, you know, minor league options, or maybe blocked by same position play or something like that. So you know, the process kind of starts there. And after that, the access to trackman data have helped a lot because we can actually evaluate them using the same data set. So we would look at, you know, how he might do against pitches that NPB pitchers tend to throw or, you know, how his batted ball might translate against the fielding of NPP players or something like that. We of course look at a lot of video as well, but we look at the same thing, like how does he do against pitches that NPP pitch is going to throw repeatedly until he proves that he can hit it. So I think we look at traits where that might have caused former international players to struggle.

And we would try to look for traits that some players have had that helped them succeed. Kaz Matsui still playing for the Golden Eagles this year at age 41. That's pretty incredible. So, okay, well, I guess we are coming up to the end here. Is there anything you think we haven't asked? Any differences between Japanese baseball and Major League Baseball stylistically or just in terms of the way that teams prepare for games that people listening might not be aware of? I don't know. I mean, I get asked about the cheering a lot in the stadium, you know, how they chant and how they do the coordinated. Yeah. How do we bring that to Major League Baseball? Because that seems so much fun. It is a lot of fun. I think it does take a lot of practice and a lot of travels too, because I think a lot of those fans, you know, travel on road games. And I think, you know, the distance is a little more manageable here in Japan,

but you get challenging and expensive real quick in America. and fitness and all of that sort of thing that teams are getting into now and trying to add amenities in the clubhouse and sleep rooms and all of that to try to optimize their players' performance? I think wearable technologies are becoming more prevalent just in sports in general in Japan. I don't know if any team is using it actively and consistently yet. But I think some teams are starting to experiment or some companies are bringing their samples to the teams or something like that. I know a couple other teams have a pretty sophisticated video system where you can have instant playback with multiple angles.

So they might be able to record a bullpen session and have immediate feedback and things like that. So I think those things are starting to become a little more prevalent and that those things will pick up quickly once some teams use it and have success with it, I think. And maybe lastly, since I was just looking at your past experience, can you talk about Stats Ninja, the site that you co-founded? Because that seems like something that if people aren't familiar with it, they might find useful.

Wow, it's something I built with a friend when I was in Chicago. And it just started with the notion where every time I went to Wrigley Field, the Cubs seemed to win a lot of times and I was you know thinking it would be it would be neat to be able to track that so we built a website where you can tag the games you went to and they will tell you what your record is and you know who your best players are and yeah and you know who tends to struggle when you're

there and it's it's kind of funny because because Jones, when he came over to the Giants last year, I remembered him as a really good player. And it's because he's hit like four home runs in the three games I've been to. Yeah. Well, people can go check that out at statsninja.io. That's a fun idea because yeah, sometimes you do get a skewed perception of players if you don't watch every game and you just happen to see them on their best days or their worst days yeah i mean i think it's it's what makes you know watching baseball more fun and more personal to everybody so you know unfortunately you know it didn't really go anywhere but it was it was a really cool experience and i think you know it definitely helped you know gain experience for what we built at the Eagles.

I just wanted to ask real quick before we end this, because I'm mostly curious, because you have the tracking technology installed and teams are starting to figure out how to use it, fans are becoming a little more comfortable with the data. Does there yet exist such thing as the Japanese conversation about the automated strike zone? I think it has come up, but not gaining any strong momentum. But I think the league wants to do something about the strike zone. It's probably not automated strike zone yet, but some kind of evaluation. I don't really know what they're trying to do, but I know it's something that they have talked about. Have you looked at all at how the NPB strike zone tends to compare to the major league zone?

If that's something where you're trying to forecast how players will do going one way or the other, is that relevant? Oh, yes, we definitely look at it. And, you know, it can be quite different. So, Oh, yes, we definitely look at it. And, you know, it can be quite different. So, you know, a guy might be struggling to get strikes looking in minor league, you know, may be able to get them in Japan. So we do recommend if people are interested in following the Eagles or getting more into Japanese baseball and analytics of Japanese baseball other than Delta graphs? I mean, is there a way to follow the games that would be best from the United States? I think the best way is to download the at Eagles app. I don't know if it has an english version i should have checked on that um but that is that is kind of the app that you know we have and we distribute game contents and

we distribute some video contents through that as well um i think the pacific league tv or pacific league media has all the games and the the videos so you know you know, that's one way to look at the follow NPB there. Unfortunately, there are just not too many websites and data available as Mr. Okada alluded to. Yeah. Well, thank you very much for coming on. And it's always a pleasure to have someone on from another league and explain how things work there and similarities and differences. So thanks very much for your time.

And I guess we are ending our day and starting yours. So have a nice day at work. Thank you very much for having me. You can support the podcast on Patreon at patreon.com slash effectively wild. Five listeners who have already pledged their support include Tom Lloyd, Chris Campin, Michael Cohen, David, and Justin Benton. Thanks to all of you. You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com

slash groups slash effectivelywild. And you can rate and review and subscribe to the podcast on iTunes. Thanks to everyone who has kept those ratings and reviews coming. Thanks to Dylan Higgins also for editing assistance. Michael and I have an episode of the Ringer MLB show up, also trade-centric, but also about this year's elite teams and how they are historically elite.

We talked to Neil Payne from FiveThirtyEight about that. We'll be doing an email show next, so keep your questions and comments from me and Jeff coming via email at podcast.fangraphs.com or via the Patreon messaging system. We will talk to you soon. Japan is an island way across the sea. I've never been there, but I heard of the scenery. They assimilate the cultures to make their stuff. And Cornelius is a pop star. I can save my kids, save my life.