Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 1214: The Three-Time Tommy John

Episode Date: May 10, 2018

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter (and answer listener emails) about podcast personas, Dylan Bundy’s bad day, players’ favorite stats and a Joc Pederson conundrum, James Paxton and the recent rash of near-no-hitters, how scoring has bounced back from its slow start, the Reds’ and Mets’ Matt Harvey trade, the Robinson Cano contract so far, […]

Hello Hard times coming along Long, long job you lost, John Hello and welcome to episode 1214 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of The Ringer, joined by Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs. Hello! I was reading a profile about you from about a year ago. I forgot what the outlet was. I hadn't heard of it before. It was kind of strange because it was like reading an article one of us would have written about one of us.

You don't expect to be profiled. I'm sure you know what I'm referring to. You know the article? Yes, it was a college student, I think, was assigned to write a feature about another writer and for some reason chose me. And it was a very strange experience. about another writer and for some reason chose me. And it was a very strange experience. And within the article, it was explained that it took a little while for you to develop your podcast voice because you were just not that talkative of an individual.

And certainly when you are, you don't project necessarily. So when these are over, do you just like let out a deep sigh and just like sit silently for hours on end? Well, yes, the latter. Yes, I sit silently for hours on end because there's no one to talk to except my dog while my wife is at work because I'm at home. I'm sure you have that experience. You talk to the birds outside your window and the chipmunks and I talk to my dog and that's about it. But yeah, if you go back and listen to episode one of this podcast which i would not

recommend you would hear my previous podcast voice which was just like someone with a terrible wasting disease forced to speak into a microphone so i've i've made efforts to improve upon that now you're basically jared from silicon Right. Did you like workshop different podcasts? How did this develop? Like, was it just a kind of coincidence or were you like, hi, welcome to etc.? Yeah. I mean, you don't want it to sound artificial, like false enthusiasm. I just try to make it sound like a more amped up version of my natural self.

It's just, you know, whenever you speak in front of a crowd, even if you can't see that crowd, you want to sound somewhat energetic and engaging and not just drone on and on. So it is my effort to do that. And I'm sure it's not always successful, but it's more successful than it once was. I think you were consistent. Yeah. So later in this episode, we are going to be joined by Johnny Venters, which we are very happy about. Johnny Venters, of course, one of the very best relievers in baseball back in 2010, 2011, pitched some in 2012, and then went on a several season odyssey in which he had three and a half Tommy John surgeries. Yes, a half. We will ask him what that means.

He doesn't even seem to know, but he did his best to explain it. He's now back in the big leagues with the Tampa Bay Rays, and it is pretty incredible that he has made it back and that he's pitching as well as he is. So we're going to ask him about that whole experience. But first, we have some banter to get to and some emails to get to. I feel bad because we skipped our email episode last week, so I'm just sort of going to sprinkle in as many emails as we can in this partial banter email episode. So things that I was going to banter about anyway that listeners asked us about so we can pass it off as a listener email. off as a listener email. This one is from Anthony, who says, I assume you've probably gotten a few of these by now, but I'm curious where Dylan Bundy's line today or on Tuesday ranks among the worst in recent memory. I don't think I've ever seen a pitcher give up four homers without recording an out. We must discuss Dylan Bundy. Yeah, it was kind of poetic that on a day when

one starting pitcher allowed no hits, another starting pitcher recorded no outs. Dylan Bundy, I scrambled actually to write about Bundy's start shortly before joining the podcast with Johnny Ventures. He is the first starter to ever allow four homers without recording an out. I didn't check relievers because that's just a different breed. He's not the first starter to allow at least seven runs without recording an out. In fact, it's happened five times that a starter has allowed eight runs without recording an out. And improbably, it happened twice to Paul Wilson within two years pitching for the Reds, which is unbelievable. But it's hard. I don't know how to define the worst start of all time because it's, I mean, what do you want to look at? Is it just runs? Is it runs toto-outs ratio? It's not an easy thing to define.

Yeah, he didn't pitch long enough to dig himself a deeper hole. Like if he had gone two innings and given up 12 runs or something, maybe that's technically worse in a way, or by game score at least, although I think just by pure embarrassment or getting shellacked, this was about as bad as it gets. Yeah, it's hard to imagine a worse start. Like if you look at his like, what, WOBA allowed or OPS, whatever you want to look at, it's all going to be like almost as bad as possible.

But of course, there are probably starters out there who like pitched to one guy, allowed a home run, and then got hurt or something. That doesn't really count because that's only one. Bundy met some sort of minimum, and then he was so bad he couldn't exceed seven batters faced. So at one point, the pitching coach, Roger McDowell, came out to talk to him. And then shortly thereafter, Buck Showalter came out to make sure Bundy went away and didn't pitch anymore. And both times, the coaches came out after home runs, and both times they left the dugout before the batter even reached home plate.

Like, I haven't checked closely enough to know if that's common, but they're just like, I'm not wasting any time to get out of here. We've got to calm this guy down now. Yeah, listener named Sam in the Facebook group I saw said, Bundy had a 61.17 FIP tonight, but his 15.57 XFIP might suggest he's better than that. A little sabermetric humor for you. We haven't mentioned this was against the Royals, by the way, making matters worse. I'll just read the play log because it defies belief.

This is from the beginning of the game. John Jay singles, Jorge Soler homers, Mike Moustakas homers, Salvador Perez homers, mound visit, Lucas Duda walks, Whit Merrifield walks, mound visit, Alex Gordon homers, mound visit. And that is the end of that short play in seven parts, I guess. So that is, I mean, I don't know how that happens because Bundy has been a pretty good pitcher.

And it reminded me actually of a conversation Sam and I had back in episode 891. We talked about a hypothetical situation where a pitcher just comes out and starts giving up homers right from the get-go. And we speculated about how long he would be allowed to stay in the game. And Sam and I were in agreement that it was probably four homers or possibly five if there were extenuating circumstances, like if he was more of an experienced guy or you had a big lead or something, you get five. But we were pretty much in agreement, and I actually went back and listened to that, and I said something like, I hope this happens. And I feel guilty that I said that. But I said it like as a science experiment, just to see how long you would be allowed to stay in. And as it turns out, I guess it was pretty much in line with our theories of what would happen here. But seeing it actually happen in practice. I mean, you looked like, were his mechanics off? Were his locations awful? Was there any way in which it should have been better than it was? I mean, anytime that this happens,

it should be better. Like, obviously, pitchers throw bad pitches all the time. And James Paxton had, I think, a worse start than when he struck out 16 players in the previous start. Like, if you look at, I know it's imperfect, but if you look at like know it's imperfect but if you look at like stat casts expected batting average paxton actually had he's made eight starts this year and in his no hitter he was like the fourth highest expected batting average of the season whatever there he got uh he threw some hittable pitches and some of them were even hit hard and then they turned into outs and then for monday ding dong and 90 the miles per hour off the bat because he allowed five better bells there's 90 97 106 107 and 107 of course the locations weren't great he walked one dude i think it was lucas duda on four pitches

but all of those pitches were actually kind of okay they were close and you know there's no reason that an inside change up i could i could talk through every single bat i looked at them he only threw 13 strikes out of 28 pitches it was a terrible start but no one actually deserves this but that's that's baseball for you and i think that if there's an upside that we could talk about just to take some of the pressure off dylan bundy is you know bundy was there to perform uh he performed poorly but that means the royals performed at him in a way and they performed well and and you know on the bright side alex gordon looks good again. Alex Gordon has a 128 WRC+, which he's a good hitter like he was in 2015. And then he had sort of a weird, mysterious decline where he couldn't hit the ball.

And now he looks promising again. So that's good, right? Alex Gordon being good sort of negates Dylan Bundy being bad. Not for the Orioles. No, not really. Well, anyway, that was that. We wondered what that would look like, and now we know. Next question comes from Chaim, who says, I don't know if you guys have seen this player poll yet, but our beloved Mike Trout said that his favorite stat

was run scored. Run scored. I thought this might be interesting to talk about on the podcast. And he's linking to an MLB.com article by the generally excellent Anthony Kastrovitz. And this was just like surveying 70 players about what stat they look at. And predictably, there were not a whole lot of advanced stats in the group. And that's fine. Players don't necessarily need to look at their advanced stats. It can be beneficial at times. and that's how teams evaluate them. So it helps in that sense too.

But it's neither surprising or appalling that players are looking at old school stats. You know, who cares? It's not their specialty. A few guys did cite some interesting stats, like Brian Dozier still rides for runs created, evidently. Wow. Ryan Dozier still rides for runs created, evidently. And yeah, the most advanced one, I guess, was Brad Ziegler, who looks at opponent's hit probability, which sort of makes sense. I guess that's a good one for him to look at because he has a lot of grounders and balls

in play and probably a lot of low probability hits. So I get it. Chase Anderson is an ERA plus guy. Paul Seewald is a FIP guy. Paul Seewald is also a person and a player for those of you who are not aware. A bunch of guys picked OPS. Anyway, I don't want to go through them all. The thing that mystifies me and that really made me stand up and take notice, there were a few guys who named batting average. And sure, players are going to name batting average it's an old school stat but people grew up looking at it the thing is one of the guys who names batting average is the last guy you would probably expect to name batting average jock peterson says that batting average is the stat he looks at and evaluates himself on he said in the article it's not very high but that's what i look at why in the, if you are Jock Peterson, would you torture yourself by looking at your batting average instead of virtually any other stat in the world would tell a more positive story about you than batting average? a career 224 hitter, but also a career 115 WRC plus hitter. He's a good hitter generally. He walks, he has power. I know he's had ups and downs. Anyway, why would you put yourself through this?

That's just self-flagellation. And he came up with the Dodgers. Why would they allow him? I mean, you can't control what he's going to look at, but you can at least tell him not to do that. Incidentally, going back a minute, Paul Seawald, not only has he been pretty good for the Mets this year, but his Twitter handle is apparently It's Paul Seawald. Like, hey, everyone, it's Paul Seawald. He's here. He's the recognizable Paul Seawald. Who wouldn't know exactly what he looks like by looking at his face?

So anyway, Jock Peterson, that's bad. Did anyone cite T-O-P-S-Plus? No, no one did, unfortunately. That's disappointing. Which runs created did Brian Dozier? Is it like the runs plus RBI minus home runs one or the more complicated one? I don't know. There are many versions of it, right? So maybe it was one of the more advanced ones or maybe he didn't specify but anyway i can't get over this maybe it's just a motivational tactic like if you're jack peterson you want to look at the stat that says you're the worst so that you feel like you have somewhere to go you have something to improve upon or i mean maybe he's good at these other things so he figures i i have to get better

at making contact that's the area where i can. So I'll just look at batting average and then I'll be able to gauge my performance. I don't know. I'm just saying take it easy on yourself, Jack Peterson. You do a lot of things well. Look at one of the stats that says you're a good hitter. They're out there. You know, he's up to 260 now with one home run. So he's doing it.

That's true. All right. This one comes from a Patreon supporter who goes only by Head Zookeeper. I don't know why, but he does. So he says, you've probably seen Tim Lincecum losing his glove while in his pitching motion and getting a called strike. Have you seen this? Yes. Okay.

I've seen this as well. This was in his first rehab appearance for the Rangers. And Head Zookeeper continues, this leads me to believe that this move isn't illegal. What happened was, once again, was just throwing a pitch and his glove just goes flying off to the third base side. I don't think it was anything intentional. He just had it on loosely and it slipped off in the process of pitching.

Question continues, and if not, if it's not legal, would this be a good strategy to purposely try this move every once in a while? slipped off in the process of pitching. Question continues, and if not, if it's not legal, would this be a good strategy to purposely try this move every once in a while? It must be a distraction to the hitter to see both a ball and a glove come flying out from the pitcher at the same time, so that would be an advantage. Maybe too bush league a move? But wouldn't you love to see the pitcher's glove come flying out, the batter making contact with the ball, the ball landing in the flying glove, and the pitcher then runs, dives, and catches the glove with the ball in it before it hits the ground. I would. So I think that this does look very distracting. It looks like the hitter is distracted. He just takes the pitch, right? And it doesn't look like he's prepared to swing. It

seems like something that would be a good tactic if you were allowed to do it. I'm guessing that you are not allowed to do it. I don't know if there's a specific rule about this, but there is rule 3.07a, which is under the heading pitcher's glove. So that sounds relevant. It says the pitcher's glove may not, exclusive of piping, be white, gray, nor in the judgment of an umpire distracting in any manner. So this seems like a manner that is distracting. I guess it's not the glove itself that is distracting, but what the glove did. But if an umpire can go out and tell a pitcher not to have a frayed sleeve or a necklace or something, which you see from time to time, then I'm going to guess that if a pitcher is doing this regularly,

he's going to get the Carter Capps treatment and someone's going to tell him to stop. But maybe you could get away with it every now and then, just looking like it's an accident. Jim Boughton used to get away with his hat flying off mid-motion all the time. First of all, the Carter Capps treatment was, I guess we're just going to let him do this and then he'll get hurt and eventually be bad so this if you did this on every single pitcher would be weird but i don't know maybe if you as i try to imagine doing this like a glove does not come off that easily no now you could i guess wear it loosely on your fingers or you could not strap it or something now it should go without saying that if you are a pitcher, the glove is the only amount of protection that you have against things that can cave your skull in. You kind of want it, but maybe you think that if you are super distracting with your glove, then no one's going to hit a line drive back at you in the first place.

You couldn't just do this, I think, and throw a good pitch. couldn't just do this i think and throw a good pitch as i think about pitching mechanics like the force required to throw like fling the glove off of your hand would like it would pull you offline i don't know how lindscombe did it but it was clearly a fluke yeah uh so i i can't imagine that you could just start doing this as like a trick sort of like a johnny cueto kind of move you would have to develop mechanics where you are really violent with your glove hand like flinging it open so you'd have to do it from like a low level maybe go start in the minors and then come up and then all pitch yeah it was a very good inside corner yeah i don't know how it happened i don't think

that you could do this repeatedly unless you took a lot of time to do it because you're you're just being pulled offline by your own delivery i don't know how lynn can get it. But if you came up and that was just part of your thing, like it happened every single pitch, this is my delivery, glove comes off. I don't think a batter could ever totally get used to it because it is a thing that's flying somewhat unpredictably out of the field division. But I don't know what the umpires

could do. Basically, the league would have to pass some sort of rule that requires this pitcher to have a custom glove that doesn't come off. Maybe it goes all the way up to the elbow or something. Just sort of like knee boots. All right. You mentioned no-hitters and you mentioned James Paxton.

James Paxton threw a no-hitter on Tuesday. James Paxton is a great pitcher. He is probably even better than a lot of people think. In fact, he's had trouble staying on the field, obviously, but among pitchers with at least 200 innings over the past two-plus seasons, so since the start of 2016, he has the third-best adjusted FIP, so park-adjusted FIP, behind Noah Sindergaard and Clayton Kershaw. So that is how good James Paxton is. And maybe this wasn't his best outing, but he was still effective. It's not a fluke when James Paxton has a no-hitter, so I don't want to write it off as just purely a product of the run

environment, but it is partly a product of the run environment. And people have been asking about this, so I wrote an article about it that is up at the ringer now, asking why there are so many no-hitters through five, no-hitters through six, no-hitters through seven, and asking if there actually are. And yes, there actually are. We are not imagining this. So with an assist from Dan Hirsch of the Baseball Gauge, I was able to compare the percentage of starts through May 8th in every season, going back to the beginning of the data. And there have been 28 no-hitters through five this year, 20 through six, and nine through seven. And those are all all-time highs.

But, of course, there used to be fewer games games and the season started later in some seasons. But even purely as a percentage of games, it's the highest. All of those things are the highest they've been since the second dead ball era, essentially 1968, 1967 in one case. And it's not hard to see why. The league batting average is very low. It's 244 as we speak. batting average is very low. It's 244 as we speak. There are fewer hits than there have been in a long time. And when there are fewer hits, there are more no-hitters or at least more no-hitter attempts. So nothing mystifying about it. It is very logical, but it is true. And that's why, and those are the numbers. And I guess the only actionable piece of information here is that if you're an app or a service that puts out alerts about no-hitters, which I believe the MLB at-bat app adds the red no-hitter text after five innings and then starts sending out push notifications after six innings, you may want to wait an extra inning just because the percentage of games that have been no-hitters through seven this year is essentially the same as a previous season through six. And of course, a near no-hitter is never really all that near.

Historically speaking, you have to get through eight innings before a no-hitter is even 50-50 to happen. And once you're through six, it's only 10% likely to happen. So all these things are long shots when we first start finding out about them anyway. But I think people are kind of sensing some overkill here in being informed about no-hitters through five at a time when strikeouts are up and hits are down, and thus no-hit bids are also more common than they've been in 50 years or so. Yep. I am ecstatic that I no longer have my SB Nation job where if there was a no-hitter or a near-no-hitter,

we would have to scramble and start putting together like a thread and then write about them because you got to chase that traffic. So I like not having that anymore. Now they're just kind of neat. Even though it was James Paxton, who's one of my favorite pitchers, and even though it was the Mariners,

and it was in Canada, just the probability of all this is through the roof. But it was a lot of fun. But it almost happened to... I went down, I was watching on my phone, but then I went down to the actual television and turned on the ninth inning, and then it was over in like a split second.

Because the best thing about James Paxton is that he's a very good pitcher. And the second best thing about James Paxton is that he works very quickly and i can tell you looking at the the pitch ids from yesterday's game so paxton threw his first pitch of the ninth inning at 57 seconds after whatever minute it was i don't know exactly how these time stamps work but i know where the seconds and the minutes are so So then it was a first pitch out. He delivered his next pitch 23 seconds later.

That's with a batter changing. Then he delivered his next pitch 14 seconds later, then 16. Then he took 32 seconds to throw the first pitch to the final batter, Josh Donaldson, then 18 seconds, and then 20. James Paxton's ninth inning took just barely two minutes, which was awesome. He was just up there. And not only was he just up there working quickly, he pulled the Verlander and was throwing super hard in the ninth inning.

That's one of the fun things to see when adrenaline is building. Some pitchers say that they don't know what the circumstances are. They know. Paxton knew. And I'm trying to find the velocities in the spreadsheet, but his second to last pitch. His last pitch. Yeah, his last pitch was his

99th pitch and it was 99 miles per hour so he he threw a medics but he was throwing close to 100 at that point yeah according to uh brooks baseball here paxton's final three pitches were 98.9 100.2 and 99.7 miles per hour so paxton was just blowing it by people that's a lot of fun and I'm glad for I think you and me and many others this isn't the start that seals anything we already knew James Paxton was good but this is the kind of start that should allow more

people to realize that Paxton is good this is just one of those you know landmark career moment starts and hopefully for Dylan Bundy having this happen on the same day helps keep a little bit of the attention off. Yes. I saw someone in the Facebook group had both of those pictures on his fantasy team. He ended up with like plus three points or something because it was like infinite negative from one and lots of positives from the other.

The only other notable thing that I uncovered while I was working on this article is that it's not just that the strikeout rate is up league-wide, which of course it is, it's up particularly in the first six innings of the game. And I think that's largely because starters are getting pulled earlier and they're aware that they're going to be pulled earlier. And so they can just air it out from the start or use their secondary stuff from the start instead of waiting until their third time through the order, which they might never see anyway. So compared to last year, the strikeout rate is up 1.5 percentage points in the first six innings and only 0.5 percentage points in the last three innings. So that, I think, is contributing even more to the fact that we're seeing all these through five and through six

and not necessarily finishing off no-hitters. And, of course, we'll probably see more and more combined no-hitters as the years go on, which are boring, I think, and not as exciting. But it's going to happen because plate appearances are just lasting longer and taking more pitches. And of course, starters are throwing fewer pitches per start. So it seems almost inevitable. Unsurprisingly, this year, Fangraphs has a split leaderboard. You can split the season by a week. The season's first week had the lowest batting average. It was 236. The season's second week had the second lowest batting average. It

was 237. This current ongoing week started May 7 lowest batting average it was 237 this current ongoing week started may 7th so i guess it's only two days in whatever that's fine uh the league is about at 260 and maybe more importantly and less surprisingly the home runs are here they're not going away uh first week of the season if you're looking at home runs per fly ball had the lowest it was 10.9 last week we were looking at 13.6 and in the early going this week 15.5 they're here the home runs are here they were only gone because of weather they're here they're not going away everyone is hitting dingers yeah i had that set in my article too that i think because of all these no hitters people are thinking that no one's scoring any runs but that's not the case people are still scoring runs because some of those hits are homers and also walks are up and hits by pitch are up. So now,

if you compare to last year through the same point, run scoring is down all the way from 4.48 per game to 4.46 per game, almost exactly the same. And the home run rate, just home runs as a percentage of non-strikeout at bats, down all the way from 4.5% to 4.4%. So yeah, offense is essentially the same as it was last year through the same point. And of course, we know what happened last year. We had a record home run rate, and we had the highest scoring rate period since 2008. So it doesn't look like that is changing in any significant way. Nope. Want to do a quick stat blast?

It's been a while. Yeah, and it doesn't even have anything to do with the fact that the Reds pitching staff today had a positive war. They'll take a data set sorted by something like ERA- or OBS+. And then they'll tease out some interesting tidbit, discuss it at length, and analyze it for us in amazing ways. Here's today's step last. Day still Blast The Reds have won a baseball game. They beat the Mets, which is

funny because they also just made a trade. Devin Masarocco played today against the Reds. Anyway, that's what's interesting. So we received an email somewhat recently that was just talking about switch hitters and the listener's perception that switch hitting is,

I can't think of the expression, a dying breed? Dying art. There we go. Dying breed, dying art. Yeah, whatever you want. This is listener Mike in Austin. Great. Ben has it all prepared.

Austin, Texas? I guess we don't know. I don't care. Austin somewhere. Ben knows everything. Anyone who ever wants to say anything positive about the podcast, it's just Ben. Ben does everything.

I just come on here and talk. That's important too. Yeah, but it's the easy part. So I went through, curious about switch hitters, and I went through using the Baseball Reference Play Index as always. And what I did was I went all the way back to 1900. I was just looking at players who debuted in any given season. And so what I did was for every single season i looked at the number of

non-pitchers who debuted and then i looked at the number of those non-pitchers who were listed as switch hitters so just looking at the percentage of all switch hitters among players who debuted i looked at this on a single season basis but it's more interesting i think to look at it by decade so starting in the 1900s the 19 aughts I'm just going to list some percentages going down. This is going to be very unlistenable, but you can't stop me. You were somewhere very far away. 6%, 6%, 5%, I'm going by decade again, 5%, 2%, 4%, 7%, and then 11%, 15%, 14%, 14%, 12%. So to say that again, the highest was in the 1980s.

15% of all player debuts were switch hitters. And in the current decade, that is 2010 through 2018, we're looking at 12%. That is a decline, but it is still far more switch hitters than there were throughout most of the 20th century. Among current players this year, the four switch hitters who have debuted are victor reyes jesmuel valentine engelb vielma and roselle herrera only the best prospects listed these are tremendous players but of course last year uh among debuts ozzy albies is a switch hitter victor caratini is a switch hitter ian happ is a switch hitter francisco mejia who's a very good prospect he's a switch hitter there are good players here who are Switch hitters who are new. So anyway, that is looking at debuts.

And I also looked at just a sort of percentage of games played as a proxy for played appearances. And again, unsurprisingly, throughout most of the 20th century, the percentages kind of hover around, I don't know, they get as low as 2.1%. They also soar as high as 9.1 but the highest season on record for percentage of games played by switch hitters 1992 20.4 of all players all games played at least were by switch hitters and currently we are looking at 13.3 in the year 2018 so we are definitely seeing a decline. It's nothing that's swift or super dramatic, but switch hitting is going away from its peak.

It still has a long way to go before it drops as low as it was in the 20th century. And you happened to send me a link from a website from Twins Daily. The user Teflon, who appears to be a senior member, he has or had 520 posts anyway he posted something on august 15th 2016 at 1 50 p.m i don't know what time zone and this is called the rise and fall of the switch hitter and uh and this user identified a similar trend he was just looking at

the history of switch hitters and and what he or she pointed, which makes all the sense in the world, is that in, what was it, 1986, I believe, the active roster was reduced to 24 players. According to Wikipedia, that's because of rising player salaries, which is another way of saying collusion. Anyway, so the active roster dropped to 24 players from 1986 to only 1989. And then it returned to being 25 and it would make some sense that when you have a smaller roster that you would want more switch hitters because you're looking to maintain some versatility some flexibility when you don't have as much roster to play with so you would want switch hitters then when the active roster returned to 25 then you would that pressure would be removed somewhat however now that we have huge ass bullpens and very short benches you'd think that there would

be more incentive again to find switch hitters so i wonder if this is going to be back on the rise but on the other hand maybe it's also just harder to be a switch hitter now yes yeah that's what i was thinking. I guess, I mean, everything has gotten harder. If you think that the league as a whole has gotten more talented, which seems almost certain, then in theory, it should be harder to be good enough to bat from both sides of the plate. So I hope that's not the case.

I always enjoy a switch hitter, but it's nice to know that they're not exactly endangered. They're maybe a little rarer than they have been at times, but they're not disappearing. Okay. So let's continue. You mentioned the Reds and the Mets, and there was, of course, a very Metsian screw up in that game where the Mets batted out of order and had the wrong lineup card and got Estrubo Cabrera, who had doubled, just erased from the bases, which is embarrassing. But the day before that, of course, there was the Harvey for Messarocco trade, which is one of those deals that would have been much bigger news about four years ago. And everyone was kind of predicting where Harvey

would end up. A lot of people thought he would end up with the Orioles. It would be a very logical destination for someone who has kind of run out of string with his old team. The Orioles always need pitching, but no one needs pitching more than the Reds. So I guess this is the most sensible place for Matt Harvey to go, aside from the fact that the nightlife is probably not up to his standards. Maybe that's a good thing. Or maybe it means that he'll be taking even longer trips to San Diego in between starts to find the best party. Yeah, I was talking to the baseball person yesterday and I was just like, oh, yeah, my little joke was, ah, Cincinnati, exactly where every

struggling pitcher should go to improve. And then the response was, well, but maybe, though, it has the worst nightlife in the MLB. So, you know, that's one upside. This is such a depressing trade. I mean, Harvey also, it was going to be difficult. I didn't know where he belonged because he, you know, he's still talented enough. He should be in the major leagues somewhere. But he's not good enough that a contending team with a thin rotation would want him,

but he's not under control long enough that a bad team with a rotation need would want him because he's only around for like another few months. So what the Reds are doing here is figuring, well, whatever, we were never going to get anything for our backup catcher at the trade deadline. So maybe there's like a 3% chance Matt Harvey becomes as good as Jaime Garcia, and then we can trade him him for zach la teller whatever happens with jaime garcia twice

so you know it's it's probably going to be nothing but good lord the reds pitching staff is just so bad now i know the mets catchers are also bad but there is no team i would have an excuse they're all hurt so yeah that's Who is Tomas Nito? I just don't know who that is, but he plays a lot. Even Luis Castillo. We thought we could count on Luis Castillo. Oh, God. There's no team in baseball I trust less to develop a pitcher than the Reds, and that's it.

I would love to give them the benefit of the doubt. They don't deserve it. Right. Well, I don't know if that story can have a happy ending, but hopefully a less depressing one than it currently has. I also wanted to ask you about Shohei Otani because I think it should be podcast policy that whenever one of us writes about Shohei Otani, we have to at least briefly summarize what we wrote because we missed talking about his start and you writing about it because it was over the weekend and early this week

But it was a significant one. I didn't really realize it at the time It was superficially a pretty good start He went six innings, they brought him back out for the seventh and he gave a couple runs up at that point But his overall line was strong, not spectacular But as you noted, he did something different that was very encouraging yeah for the first time so he's made five starts and we have seen the good fastball we've seen the very very good splitter and we'd seen a lot of sliders that were not executed well he wasn't necessarily getting abused but there are a lot of backing up sliders a lot of sliders that sort of

floated in there for someone like otani with his breaking ball you usually want to throw if you're right you usually want to throw it low and to the glove side so away against right handed hitters and he just wasn't really able to do that very much he had the highest average slider location among all righties the lowest rate of low and away sliders among all righties through four starts and uh against seattle he didn't really use the splitter that much he was fine when he used it but but he used his slider. He also broke out a curveball, and they were good. He actually was able to command them and locate them.

It didn't allow him to dominate the start or anything because the Mariners couldn't hit, and it's just one game. But he was very strong through six innings, and yeah, for the first time, we saw him throw his slider well. So I don't know if that means it's going to keep up, of course, but you know that the seams are different between the japanese leagues and major league baseball maybe that just took some getting used to maybe maybe something else maybe his blister has healed or something but if shohei otani now has a a third pitch that he can use all of a sudden that makes

him all the more unhittable oh yes yeah that's what we've been waiting for because the splitter is fantastic obviously but if he is only because the splitter is fantastic, obviously. But if he is only throwing the splitter in the fastball, I mean, easier said than done just to sit on the splitter and wait for it to go out of the zone because you can't actually tell the difference between the fastball and the splitter in many cases. That's what makes it a good splitter. But still, it's easier, at least, if he has a very fast pitch and a slower pitch that is always a ball. Good hitters can probably pick up on that difference sometimes. But if he's throwing another slower pitch that he can also throw for strikes and get swings and misses with, that is going to be really hard to counter. So this is exciting. Let me just pull up the game log here.

But I believe that for the—well, I guess it was the second time but otani was used as a pinch hitter uh the other day in colorado he made an out and so it didn't work but that's uh that's twice now we've seen him come off the bench to hit which is not something that happens very often obviously because i just said it happened twice so it's nice to see a little more flexibility because there was there was a stretch there where it felt like otani wasn't uh he wasn't playing enough i kind of missed. He's never playing enough for me. So let's do maybe one or two more. This one is from Jamal who says, I was browsing

through Fangraph's leaderboards and stumbled on Robinson Cano's profile page. It's been four and a half years since Seattle signed Cano to a 10-year $240 million deal and with the Cabrera and Pujols deals catching a lot of flack lately and already locks as being albatrosses, I was curious to see how Cano's deal was aging. Through the first four years of the deal, Cano has accumulated 17.6 fangraphs war.

He is in his age 35 season and has already been worth 1.1 war through 143 plate appearances. My question here is, has this been a good deal? The Mariners obviously haven't made the postseason since Cano has arrived, and much longer before he signed. Thank you for reminding all the Mariners fans in the audience about that, Jamal. And I understand this deal was made under the previous regime. The Mariners currently have a roughly 15 to 20% chance of making the playoffs, but with their farm system in poor shape and with many of their key players growing older, this may be their best chance to make the postseason for the foreseeable

future. It was pretty shocking when the news broke that Seattle had managed to sign Cano, and thus far he appears to have generated a healthy amount of surplus value for the club, but if the team just continues to tread the line between bad and mediocre for the remainder of his contract, how will we look back on this deal when it's all said and done? Well, I think so far through Cano's four years and change, according to Fangraphs' calculations, you know, dollars per war, all that stuff, he's been worth about $150 million of value, which is, what is that? About 60% of the way to his total contract value. So that's a good start now. One should expect the last five years to be worse than the first five but have you as you look at him now i know that uh that last season was technically his his

worst offensively as a mariner but right now he's doubled his walk rate his batting line is is pretty good we can't expect his defense is going to get better but he's actually he's patient he's been swinging at the lowest rate of pitches in his entire career, so he's made some sort of change. He's also making less contact than ever before, so there's something there to watch. But long story short, the point here is that Robinson Cano right now remains productive.

He's still a good hitter, even if he's not very powerful anymore. So if he can make it through the first five years as a pretty good player, it looks like the Mariners are going to be in the hunt i i don't think that they're a great team but i think that they're good enough to be competitive and that'll be what the third time in keno's five years that mariners will be around the fringes of the playoff race which is kind of the point they signed him because they wanted to make the playoffs and he obviously hasn't yet been able to push them into the playoffs, but he's allowed for some sort of culture change. He is one of the role models of the team, and he has been there to help the Mariners get close to the playoffs.

And even though it hasn't gotten over the hump, that's kind of the point. The point is to be competitive. So I don't know what the next five years are going to bring. That's probably going to be bad. But, I mean,, relative to like the Pujols contract, this has started far better. Yeah, definitely. I would say he's aged better than you would have expected or projected, probably, given that he was already 30 or older when he signed that deal. And there were concerns about second basemen maybe historically not aging as well well maybe because of the types of players who end up at second base or maybe because they get spiked or they end up in double plays and that

can be physically punishing but i mean he has been durable i know that he has played through injuries at times but he's played a lot of games and he's had a couple six win seasons so far and he is still playing at a very high level has been an above average player every year that he's had a couple six-win seasons so far, and he is still playing at a very high level, has been an above-average player every year that he's been with the team. So purely on a performance basis, I would say it's gone swimmingly. And I guess if you look back at the end of the deal and the Mariners never made the playoffs, in that sense, it's a sort of a failure in that he didn't carry them to the promised land. But I don't think it's fair to really evaluate the deal retroactively like that. I think all he can do is play as well as he can

play, and the rest of the team isn't really his problem. So I think he should be commended for his value that he's offered thus far, and I don't think you can really ding the team. It's, as Jamal said, a previous regime. So no one's really evaluating those moves anymore anyway. But I think based on what they knew at the time, it's gone even better than they could have hoped. And you know, as long as we're here, Nelson Cruz signed for four years and 58 million before 2015. And, you know, from the sabermetric perspective, we all figured, what are you doing? He can't really play the outfield anymore he's going he's entering his mid-30s this is a player who's going to decline he signed for 58 million i think there was a draft pick involved

as well but anyway he signed for 58 million and so far according to fangraphs he has been worth 108 million dollars he is on pace to more than double the amount of money that he signed for in terms of his value nelson cruz is quietly among the greatest things that we have gotten horribly wrong that's right all right maybe one more let's see what we have here this is from mitch m patreon supporter who says there's a lot of stuff in baseball that to a layman seems like it should be really easy, but is in actuality extremely difficult. What do you think most epitomizes that gulf of difficulty? My pick would be checking a swing. It seems like it would be the easiest thing in the world to after all, just stop swinging, but it's clearly difficult given how

many guys strike out on check swings. What's your pick? I guess this is where Ron Washington says playing first base is extremely difficult. I would say bunting, maybe. Oh, yeah. Yeah, bunting seems like it should be really easy. All you have to do is hold the bat in the path of the pitch and let it bounce off it, but it is more complicated than that,

and even if it weren't, that is still very difficult to do when pitchers are throwing as hard as they are and with as much movement as they do. So given the success rate of hitters actually trying to do that and not succeeding, I'm going to guess that that's a whole lot harder than it looks and sounds. Yeah, I think of almost anything that's routine, and it's actually not. Bunting is very hard. If you are making a long throw across the infield to first base and you even if you do have your feet set looking at first base that's not easy but if you were you know making just a play in the hole here's a short stop and then you throw to first base everyone expects

that throw to be on the money that's super far and it's really hard you don't even know what grip you have on the ball in your hand it's not like you get that consistently and just throwing a strike just if you're a pitcher throwing throwing a strike in the zone, full stop. Doesn't have to be a good strike. Doesn't have to be with your secondary pitch. Any kind of strike. It's not that easy.

You're a far distance away. It's hard. Yeah. Yeah. I will say that not that much about being in Major League Baseball seems easy to me. Maybe I just, I know better, but I mean, none of it actually seems like it should be that easy. I'm not looking at my TV saying, why can't they do this? It's so easy. I mean, obviously it's not, at least not at the level

that these guys do it. So it all looks pretty challenging to me, but I guess there are a few things that, I don't know know maybe like beating out a ground ball or something that happens so rarely even with fast guys you'd think it would happen more often batting in order i guess is more challenging than it looks evidently remembering the count yes remembering the count yeah i've talked about that that doesn't happen all the time so oh you know what remembering all the signs oh yeah a catcher if you're a pitcher even if you're like a base runner just all of the different signals that are delivered intentionally weirdly and and then when you mix

up signs it's it's a miracle to me that that isn't messed up more often yeah that's true that that looks hard that doesn't look like it should be easy. No, it doesn't meant to be run. The race is over, you've won. Dear John, don't be hard on yourself. Give yourself a break, life wasn't meant to be run. Life wasn't meant to be run The race is over And so today it is our distinct pleasure to be joined by one of the newest members of the Tampa Bay Rays. That would be the unbelievable Johnny Venters.

Johnny, thank you for joining us. And, you know, we waited a couple of weeks to get in touch with, uh, with the raise and arrange this. And by this point, how tired are you of telling your story? Hey, Ben and Jeff, I appreciate y'all having me. I'm not tired of it, man. It's, you know, I'm not great at telling it or talking much, but, uh, I don't mind, uh, I don't mind the question. So it's been, I'm just grateful for all the, uh, to be able to answer questions and have questions asked to me. So glad to be here, man. Yeah.

I know that one of the things that you were looking forward to after this long time away from the majors, you have two young kids who were either were not born or were barely born the last time that you were in the big leagues. So have they had a chance to see you in person? Can they appreciate what you've accomplished at their age? Yeah, they got to, they,timore with the for my first game i think my oldest was one and uh our middle son was in my wife's stomach last time i pitched in the big league so they were they were babies and uh they're six and five now so they're old enough to kind of understand you know what i'm doing and

where i'm at i mean i don't think they fully understand it. They get confused because last year I played for, you know, four of the minor league teams. So they asked me, Daddy, are you going to play for the Stone Crabs or the Bulls? And I'm like, hopefully I play for the Rays, guys. It's been great to be able to share with them and for them to see me on the field and get to see them in the tunnel after the game. It's been a special, you know, however long, 10, 12 days for them to see me on the field and get to see them in the tunnel after the game it's been a it's been a special you know however long 10-12 days for them they've been around quite a bit so

it's been it's been good and i just feel fortunate to to be here when i was having a conversation with my fiancee just this morning about this upcoming uh conversation and i was trying to figure out you obviously so for anyone who doesn't know, Johnny Venters here is maybe the second major league pitcher to return to the majors after three Tommy John surgeries. And I guess the way we're talking about it, it's three and a half. We'll get into that later. But you spent so long and so many years on the rehab path. And we're trying to figure out, obviously, from a professional standpoint, that's incredibly frustrating. I mean, you lost your 28 through 830 seasons.

I can't imagine how that feels. But does that at least come with any sort of side benefit of, did you get to spend more time with your family while you were rehabbing? Is that like the one silver lining here? Yeah, that was definitely one of the biggest reasons that I was able to continue going and doing this because, you know, whether I was rehabbing at home in Atlanta, rehabbing in Port Charlotte, my kids weren't in school yet.

So they were able to come with me wherever I was full time. So it made it easier, you know, every day for me to go to the field and come home and be able to spend the rest of the day with them and see them every day. Definitely made it easier and made my job of going into the field every day a lot more enjoyable knowing that I was going to be able to see them every day. I couldn't imagine being away from them for that long. So it was definitely a plus from that standpoint, getting to be with my family all that time. I really didn't miss much in terms of the boys growing and stuff like that. So it was good from that side, for sure. During those years away, I'm sure it's hard to stop yourself from thinking about how things could have gone differently or could you have done something differently?

It's probably best not to think that way, but I'm sure it's hard to avoid. So do you look back at the heavy workload that you had in those years and think, I wish I hadn't pitched that often? Or was there anything that you could have done to avoid that? Or do you just kind of chalk it up to this was going to happen one way or another yeah you know like you said it i think it's kind of productive to kind of think about that in terms of like the workload and stuff you know i think i was going to get hurt no matter what and you know i even i know i pitched a lot um when i was young but you know i wouldn't have been able to you know i probably wouldn't have been able to to do a lot of things that I was able to do

if I hadn't pitched that much. Who knows? I don't know if it contributes at all. I think about other things like my mechanics or how much I maybe threw away playing catch and stuff like that that maybe took a toll on me. I try to just not think about it and try to work as hard as I can now to stay healthy

and maybe try to be a little smarter with how much I throw when I play catch or when I'm not pitching the games. But I try to, you know, injuries are part of the game. It's part of this business, and I understand that. And, you know, I just try not to think about, you know, why it happened or all that and just try to be positive, and hopefully it holds together this time. You were able to come back last year,

and between several levels of the minor leagues, you were very effective. Your strikeouts were there. Your stuff was there. I know your stuff has actually recently played up and I'll ask you about that later on. But you were able to pitch for quite a while in the second half of last year in the minors. And then you went to major league camp this spring and you were good. Your stuff was good. And I know that the Rays have, we could say, a complicated moving parts pitching staff. But given what you've been through and all the appreciation you've expressed for just being able to still throw, how did you sort of moderate the disappointment when you found out you didn't break camp with the Major League team? Yeah.

I mean, obviously when they told me I wasn't going to make the team, I was disappointed. But, you know i knew i knew going in and into camp that you know it's a long shot for me to make that club they have a lot a lot of arms and a lot of guys that were penciled in and then you know once they decided to do the the four-man rotation and needed you know multiple relievers i obviously knew that that didn't that didn't work in my favor because i'm not as obviously not as as flexible as other guys that can throw multiple innings and, and things like that. So, I mean, I was disappointed, but I, you know, I, I kind of prepared myself for that. And, uh, I knew hopefully if I, if I, if I went to wherever they were going to send me, if I pitched well,

you know, I would hopefully get a look at some point. And, uh, you know, I just tried to try to continue to pitch and get people out and fortunately you know it worked out it worked out probably sooner than i thought it would really it turns out if you pitch in triple a with the rays you'll eventually pitch in the majors with the rays it seems to be the uh the way the roster works so you came back we uh we actually we were supposed to talk to you when you were down in durham and then the day that we were arranging that you got called up which was uh that was great for all of us, although a little inconvenient. But of course, you you came up and the first batter you faced was was Chris Davis, and you got him

out. I think it was four pitches. And that was your first major league game since 2012. And obviously, that's got to be. And as we've all been able to read, it was a very emotional moment. But how much of that emotion was being back on the mound and how much of that was having it so that your final major league game wasn't the infield fly game in the wild yeah like you said it was an emotional day to be able to to come up and and uh getting out and my family to be there and experience with me it was special and obviously i didn't when i sit down and think about a time you know how long it had been and people tell me, I guess it had been 2,000-something days or something like that. People told me, and it sounds crazy when I hear it. But when I sit down and think about it, it was a long ride to come in

and face a great hitter like Chris Davis and be able to get him out, my family to be there. It was emotional, and I was nervous. I told people it was kind of like making my debut again because it had been so long. So like I said, I was just grateful to be there and to be able to get an out in a game that we won. It was special. So I'm sure that every pitcher knows on some intellectual level

that it's a risky profession and any pitch could be your last for a while. And I'm sure that you just have to put that out of your mind too. But you have experienced that on a much more visceral level than most guys do. And I'm wondering if that is one of the hardest parts of coming back, not just the hours and the days and the weeks and the gym and in casts and all the comeback difficulty, but once you actually are back to just put it out of your head that

something could happen again and just not hold back and throw the way that you once did, that just seems psychologically like it would be really difficult to do. Yeah, there was, I mean, you know, each, each surgery and rehab was, you know, presented different obstacles and there was definitely times where I was, you know, maybe nervous or, or worried about it failing again but you know at the end of the day if if you're not throwing how you throw and maybe you're you're guarding if i was guarding my elbow maybe i would hurt something else and i just had to come come to grips with i you know if i'm going to do this i have to i have to throw and throw the way i i know how and and put effort into it and you know it is what it is

there's nothing i can do about that little ligament in there, you know, working and not working. So, you know, the second surgery, I probably, I babied it too much. And when it came time to throw hard, it wasn't ready for it. So I think being able to put it out of your mind, just understand that, you know, it is what it is. If it's going to fail, it's going to fail. You know, babying, it's not going to help.

Really, it's going to be counterproductive. So I try to go out there and throw as regular as I can. Obviously, there was times when I, you know, probably babied it or guarded my elbow a little bit. But, you know, I try hard not to, you know, and just to throw the way I throw. And, you know, that ligament's got to mature in there and get used to the stress of throwing. So I just try not to think about it. And, you know, like you guys's got to mature in there and get used to the stress of throwing. So I just try not to think about it. And, you know, like you guys said, any pitch could be your last. And, you know, I'm good with that now.

It is what it is, you know. I know Sean Kelly, another pitcher, has had a bunch of arm trouble over the course of his career. And, you know, his career is built upon his slider. And he said, you know, it's what gave me this job. So I'm just going to keep throwing it. And if my elbow fails it fails and i know that in at least the last couple games you've pitched four times now in the majors this year and you came out you know originally your fastball it's 91 92 and people figure yeah of course he's going to be missing something look

at everything he's been through but all of a sudden now you're throwing 94 95 just a couple games later is this just a matter of letting it loose, or have you tapped into something you didn't even realize you still had? Yeah, I think, you know, obviously getting the adrenaline going. I made a little mechanical adjustment that I think helped. Helped with my arm working a little more naturally. And I think just getting out there and throwing. You know, the more I threw, the better my stuff got.

And I think just, like you guys said, letting it loose and getting out there and throwing hard more often and trusting my arm. And, you know, I'm always trying to try to look for ways to, you know, maybe make my delivery more efficient. I think I made a couple adjustments that have allowed me maybe for my stuff to pick up a little bit last couple of games. Hopefully I can continue to do that and I can maintain that, the velocity I've had the last couple of games. But, you know, we'll see. We'll see what happens. And of course, you're known for the sinker and the ground ball rate.

And I know that people have cited the stat to you that you have the highest career ground ball rate of anyone on record. And at least so far, it seems like you're getting grounders just as much as before, if not more. So has anything changed just about your approach from batter to batter or how you're mixing your pitches or your locations or anything? Or are you more or less the same guy or as close to the same guy as you can be that you were in 2011, 2012? Yeah, I'm definitely, you know, I'm not the same guy. 2011 2012 yeah i'm i'm definitely you know i'm not the same guy i'm still still learning trying you know trying to to listen to you know kyle snyder and and my triple a pitching coach nappy

and and uh you know like you said i was throwing 9192 so i knew i wasn't gonna pitch the way i was you know a few years ago or however long ago so i was trying to learn and see what i needed to do to get people out you know fortunately my sinker has been decent. You know, I'll throw a good one and then I'll throw a bad one. But anytime I can go out there and get some ground balls and get some quick outs, you know, that's kind of what I'm trying to do. The sinker's been good. You know, it's been inconsistent, but I feel like it's getting better.

The more I throw it, the more mound time I get, I think it'll be more consistent. You know, hopefully. Hopefully. where around time I get, I think it'll be more consistent, you know, hopefully, hopefully, but I just kind of, I let the, I kind of, you know, let the catchers call, call the game and, you know, they've been out there for a while by the time I get out there. So I trust that they know what the hitter is looking for and they can see if my sinker is, you know, doing what it needs to do that day to get people out. And if it's not, you know, maybe go to something else, but fortunately so far it's been pretty decent. In a way, your prior major league experience, it's if it's not you know maybe go to something else but fortunately so far it's been pretty decent in a way your prior major league experience it's it's kind of like a time capsule

because you you pitched in the majors you were very successful as a strikeout and grander guy before you know the the whole fly ball launch angle thing is has caught on and all of a sudden everyone is trying to hit sinkers and and aim for the air and now you're you're back in the majors now that home runs are everywhere and everything is in the air. Is that something that you've been aware of, been made aware of, anything that sort of adjusted you at all? Or is this just a matter of, well, I'm going to pitch to my strengths

and they might be able to elevate sinkers, but they can't elevate my sinker? Yeah. I mean, I thought of it this spring. It was the first time I thought about it. And really, you know, obviously the game's different with the launch angles and the savior metrics and the, you know, the analytics and stuff like that. It's different than when I was here last. So, you know, we'd go over all the hairs on every team before we play them. And,

and obviously, you know, guys hit the ball down in the zone a little better than I think than maybe they did the last time I was here. And, uh, I'm not a real good spin rate guy pitching up in the zone. It's really not, it doesn't suit me real well. Typically, if I get a ball from the zone it gets hit pretty hard so I like to pitch to my strengths and and try to pitch down the zone and get guys to to hit ground balls obviously I know it's probably going to be a little more difficult in this division and and with the game now but I you know I'm not I feel like I still need to kind of pitch to my strengths and try to do what I do.

And if I can't, then adjust from there. But, you know, fortunately, so far it's been fine. Obviously, I know as the season – depending on how long, you know, I'm here. And as the season goes, I'll probably have to make adjustments to how I go at guys. And the more I see guys, I'm sure they'll adjust to me and we'll have to mix things up. But so far in the beginning, it's been good. I've been getting swings early and getting ground balls.

So I can't complain. I can't seem to get a swing and miss at all. But hopefully that will come. When you were away and trying to come back, did you pay close attention to the majors? Did you follow guys you had pitched with and played with? And did you take pleasure in the success of someone like Craig Kimbrell, for instance, or was it just easier for you to kind of not pay attention too much? That's about all I paid attention to was kind of what guys I played with or my buddies or

guys that I know were doing. And obviously I was overjoyed with the success that they've had, you know, the Freddie Freemans and Craig Kimbrels and those guys have had, you know, such amazing careers so far. And I've always dreamed for them to have success, maybe except when we're playing them now. But I didn't pay a whole lot of – I mean, I didn't – it kind of was hard to watch a lot of games, you know, because I wanted to be out there and I couldn't be.

So I kind of would check some box scores and see if guys I knew or, you know, obviously I'd check what the Rays did because that's the organization I'm with. But other than that, I didn't really pay a whole lot of attention to it. I have been, you know, more recent because my boys are playing baseball and they like to watch it. So it's been fun to sit down with them and kind of explain the game to them. But other than that, man, I, you know, I kind of try to just do my rehab and not pay a whole lot of attention to it. I think most people have a fairly good understanding of, we can

call it ordinary Tommy John surgery, but even though I'm sure you've been over this a million times, how could you best describe sort of the fourth procedure that you had? Because that one is, it's a lot more uncommon and it's kind of harder to understand all the details yeah you know i'm not a doctor and i don't fully understand it to be honest with you and what i could understand dr elitra after i i tore my ligament and my flexor tendon off the bone that last time and uh dr elitra you really didn't want to do a forced tommy john on me you know because i my bone had been drilled so many times and he, you know, he really felt that doing it again would really compromise the bone and, and it would be more successful to a break or a fracture. And, and, uh,

and then he presented me with this option, you know, which from what I understand, he went in and, and, um, my flexor and my ligament had kind of grown together over time. So I think he, he separated them and just kind of reattached them both to the bone and sutured them in there. And that's the best way I can describe it. I'm not sure exactly how he did that, what he used to do that. But basically, he didn't put anything new in there. He just kind of reattached the stuff that was in there back to the bone where it had torn off. Wow.

Anytime you hear torn off the bone, I just kind of cringe. But yeah, I would think so. Was it at all easier to go through this because you kind of came up as a guy who, you know, people wrote off at times and you were drafted in the 30th round. You weren't like the top prospect who always just had it made and sailed through the system. You had to work at it from the beginning and weren't always on everyone's radar. So I don't know whether that makes it harder because once you got to the majors and were so good, maybe you feel like, oh, I've made it and I put my work in and here I am. Or maybe it's easier because you have been accustomed to working hard and having to overcome people's expectations in the past yeah i think i think it probably made it easier just because you know like you said i learned when i was you know when i first signed i thought you know like most young kids do that i would kind of use my natural ability and just and i would

eventually get to the big leagues and i learned young that you know that wasn't the case i was gonna have to you know learn how to work and learn that, you know, that wasn't the case. I was going to have to, you know, learn how to work and learn how to, you know, really put in the time and effort to try to get to where I wanted to be. And it wasn't easy for me. You know, I'm naturally kind of a lazy guy. So, you know, it took me a little while to learn how to work. And I had a lot of good, you know, pitching coaches

and strength coaches when I was young that kind of helped me learn how to do that stuff. And I think it definitely helped through the rehab process to just kind of go in and get my work done and get through it. You know, it's never really come that easy for me. So, you know, I think it definitely helped, you know, starting at a young age to learn how to work hard and understand that, you know, that's kind of what I got to do to be successful. When you came up and you faced Chris Davis, of course, that was the first time you got back to the majors to pitch. But Tampa Bay, of course, is in the American League. They're going to be in the American League for probably ever. And one of the things about that is the pitchers

don't bat. You have batted. You batted against Miguel Batista one time. You actually made contact on the first pitch you ever saw. Maybe unsurprisingly that you did foul ball and you drew a ball. So in a sense, that was a successful you foul ball and you drew a ball. So in a sense, that was a successful bet. It also ended with a swinging strikeout. Is there any part of you

that still aches for an opportunity to get up and get a second plate appearance? Not really, buddy. Not really. That one plate appearance I got,

I don't know. I really, to this day, I don't know how these guys hit the ball, man. He threw that first pitch and I told myself I was going to swing really early. I'm going to swing really early. And I think he was throwing – he was throwing – he wasn't throwing 100.

He was throwing low 90s, 92, 93. And I was so late. I fouled it like by the opposing team's dugout. And it looked like a million miles an hour to me. I swung and missed the next couple pitches. I kind of realized, coming up as a starter, we hit in double A and triple A. I realized I'm not a very good hitter. It's not my strength by any means, but I enjoyed it.

It was the time I got to do it, but I really don't have much desire to step in that box and try to hit that ball. Along the lines of what Jeff was saying earlier about your career kind of being a time capsule and that you went away for a while and then the game changes while you were gone, there have been changes in bullpens too. Bullpens just seem to keep getting bigger and bigger.

Guys are throwing harder and harder. There are just more relievers on every team. Sometimes they're being used in different ways. Do you notice that even compared to when you came up or when you last pitched in the majors? Yeah, it's definitely different. Definitely different now, the way bullpens are used and the way teams look at how many times through a lineup

the starter goes and all that. And like you said, guys are throwing harder and bullpens are, you know, there's more attention on the bullpen and shortening games. And it's definitely different than what I was used to. I think it was kind of trending that way my last year or two in the big leagues. But it's been fun to watch, you know, all these guys around the league with such great arms and great stuff, be able to come into games and do their job. It's been, I watch all these guys around the league with such great arms and great stuff be able to come into games and do their job. I think it's fun.

It's good for the game, I think, to have those guys, the Arois Chapmans and guys like that coming and throwing so hard. It's definitely different from when I was here in the big leagues. You might have one or two guys throw that hard, but now it seems like most guys coming out of Penn these days are throwing mid-upper 90s. So I think it's fun to watch, and it's cool to be a part of it.

Yeah, I don't know if you were watching yesterday, but Jackie Bradley might disagree that it's good to have Erelda Chapman around. That was brutal. The last thing I wanted to ask you was, so I understand signing with Tampa Bay the first time. That's a team taking a chance on an injured player, but a big upside. But you've actually re-signed with the Rays, I think now, three times.

And I was just curious, is this a matter of organizational loyalty? They've taken care of you through your rehab? Or what is it about Tampa Bay that's just brought you back three times over? Yeah, you know, they've been great for me, you know, these last four years. They kind of, obviously, they gave me an opportunity after my third surgery when I don't think, you know, most teams wouldn't do that. And then once that one failed, they really were with me through the whole process of, you know, deciding whether I wanted to do it again

and the decision-making process. They were with me the whole step of the way. And, you know, their medical staff is phenomenal. And the way they treat their guys and the families is great. So, you know, I'm just grateful that they really supported me and stuck with me through this whole thing. And they really are, you know, a first class, you know, class act organization and the way they treat their guys and support them. And my last question, you're probably hearing from everyone, oh, you're such an inspirational story, which must be strange to hear because you're kind of just trying to do your job and get back to what you were doing before. But it's true and it must be especially true

for other pitchers who are trying to follow in your footsteps and trying to go through the same process that you went through. Hopefully not exactly the same, but a shorter version of it. Hopefully not. So have you had a lot of pitchers and other players reach out to you and ask for advice or, you know, just try to learn something from your experience? Yeah, sure.

Well, you know, I spent a lot of time in Port Charlotte and there's obviously a lot of young, a lot of guys, young guys, you know, going through, you know, the rehab process. And I tried to try to be as open as I could and as helpful as I could. I don't know, you know, the fact that I've had three and a half Tommy Johns, I don't know if I'm a great one to listen to, you know, I don't know if my life really holds that much water, but I was glad to try to help whenever I could. And I know that it's a tough process and especially when you're young and,

and in the minor leagues, it can be, it can wear on you. So anytime I could try to help anybody go through that process, I was, I was glad to do it. If your kids are interested in pitching, will you encourage them to do that or will you encourage them? I'm going to encourage them to hit as long as they can. That's what I was going to say. That's right.

I don't know if my genetics, we don't know if we have the greatest ligaments there is. Okay. So I'll probably try to keep them in the batter's box as long as they can do it. Maybe you shouldn't be their coach. Yeah, definitely not. Definitely not. All right. Well, we really appreciate it, Jaddy.

It's been a pleasure talking to you. And of course, we wish you the best and hope you make up for lost time and are around for many years to come. Ben and Jeff, I appreciate you guys having me, man. It's been a pleasure talking with you. All right. Thanks. It's pretty amazing when you think about it that Venters has had his elbow just shredded and rebuilt and torn up again and cobbled back together, and yet he still throws way, way harder than almost anyone listening to this podcast with a fully intact elbow. Big leaguers are really good at baseball. By the way, Jeff alluded to a previous pitcher or pitchers who had had Tommy John surgery three times. Turns out it's kind of difficult to tell who did and who

didn't. Jay Jaffe just wrote a piece about this for Fangraphs, which I will link to on the show page if you're interested in the details of Venters' surgeries and also some of his predecessors. Seems like Jason Isringhausen had three Tommy John surgeries and he made it back. Josh Johnson maybe did too, but didn't make it back after the last one. Jose Riho also, possibly. It is a small and scarred group. Also, one last follow-up to the topic of teams paying for home games,

which we talked about with Sam last week. I mentioned earlier this week that a listener named Johnny pointed out that this has happened in Brazilian soccer. Also got a couple messages from listeners Bud and Spencer, who said that it's happened in college football too. Spencer says, Oftentimes, when a team from a smaller conference, like the Mid-American Conference or MAC, plays a large school, such as a Big Ten school, the Big Ten team will pay the MAC team,

sometimes as much as over a million dollars. I know the Toledo Rockets have been paid a million dollars to play the Ohio State Buckeyes and Miami Hurricanes, among others. So thank you for filling in our non-baseball knowledge. All right, so next time we may have another guest or guests, but we'll try to do some banter and some emails also. Maybe not a full email episode this week, but if you smush a couple episodes together, it'll add up to one. Please do keep your questions and comments coming via email to me and Jeff at podcast at fangraphs.com or via the Patreon messaging system if you're a supporter. Speaking of which, the following five people have gone to patreon.com slash effectively wild and pledged some small monthly amount to keep the podcast going.

Jonty Richardson, Matthew Lee, Drew Broadfoot, Joe Mielenhausen, and George Bremmer. Thanks to all of you. You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash groups slash Effectively Wild. And you can rate and review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on iTunes. Thanks to Dylan Higgins for editing assistance. We will be back to talk to you soon. Pick it, pick it, pick it Joyful Day