Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 1315: The 2019 Minor League Free Agent Draft

Episode Date: December 28, 2018

Ben Lindbergh, Jeff Sullivan, and ESPN’s Sam Miller review the top candidates for the most enduring baseball memory of 2018, then conduct the sixth annual Effectively Wild Minor League Free Agent Dr...aft, selecting 11 minor league free agents each and competing to see whose roster will accumulate the most combined MLB playing time in 2019 […]

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Loyal fans and newfound followers, what's up y'all? Hello, how are you doing out there? You're chilling? I'm with it. Oh, by the way, the album's out. Go get it. We went to the studio and then we made a video. We didn't make a movie though. Maybe the next year or so, yo. I got a message for my fans and friends. The last album was up, y'all. And here we go again. Hello and welcome to episode 1315 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraph presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of The Ringer, joined by Jeff Sullivan of Fangraph. Say hello, Jeff. Hi.
Starting point is 00:00:33 And also joined, as promised, by Sam Miller of ESPN. Hello, Sam. Hey. You know, I've told you before that my bike lock code, my bike lock whatever, password was Barry Bonds OPS from 2004. But 1315 was actually my wife's bike lock. Oh. Until we lost it. So someone figured it out?
Starting point is 00:00:55 I don't know what happened to that bike lock. I took it because mine broke. I took hers. And then I got a new one. Anyway, go ahead. Was there significance to that number for her that you can share on the podcast? I'm actually worried that actually we didn't lose it and that I just gave it back to her. It's probably her pin for her credit card and everything, too, that you just told everyone about.
Starting point is 00:01:18 Anyway, moving along. All right. It's the right number of numbers. So we are doing the minor league free agent draft, which is the real reason that we do this podcast. We just do the 150 or so other episodes per year to keep the lights on so that we can do this one episode per year. But before we do, we wanted to follow up because the last time you came on, we talked briefly about the most defining memory of 2018. briefly about the most defining memory of 2018 and then we quickly aborted that conversation because you had to produce content on that topic later this year and you have and that content is now on the internet so you found a way to make the most defining memory of 2018 not Shohei Otani
Starting point is 00:02:00 which when we briefly discussed this before I think we all just sort of defaulted to that. That is the obvious answer. And maybe it's the right answer. But how much pressure did you feel to find another compelling answer so that your article would not be very short? I don't really remember my mental space at the time. I don't think I felt that much pressure to do that. I probably would have just rearranged the order of how I wrote it so that the show Otani would have been at the end. But I actually found unexpectedly as I was writing, I thought that, I mean, it is clear that Otani is not going to be forgotten for a very long time. And so it is, you know, he is clearly a right answer. I was surprised by how many of the things that I also included as sort of fitting the definition seemed to me.
Starting point is 00:02:48 It didn't seem to me like a particularly extraordinary year while I was watching it. But there's a lot in here that I think is legit and will actually make it some number of decades at least maybe. It's hard to know. It's really it's hard to know how much how we'll watch old highlights in the future. Like so much of what I think of from the from the like from the 80s especially is is the media through which we consumed baseball. if there weren't, and Ken Griffey Jr. too, would they be as memorable to me if it wasn't the baseball card boom, and we had the Bo Jackson score and the Ken Griffey Jr. upper deck? Maybe they would have been, but those certainly were, those were like crucial, crucial parts of their, their mythology at the time. And, and, you know, the guy running through the, the, the outfield wall when he tries to make the catch. I mean, so much of the experience of baseball
Starting point is 00:03:46 at that time was also watching bloopers and clips on either highlight shows or This Week in Baseball or on scoreboard jumbotrons. And so much of baseball in the sort of like a decade ago or maybe six, seven years ago when we were starting to write was the GIF was GIF driven. And I just don't know what baseball will be consumed through in 60, 70 years. I don't know if baseball trivia books will be a thing the way they were. I had a, I don't know if I mentioned this before when we had this conversation before, but I had a crossword puzzle that I got for Christmas one year. And it was a wall-sized crossword puzzle. It was like, I think it was like six feet by six feet.
Starting point is 00:04:33 And there were hundreds and hundreds of clues and they were all baseball related. And so when I think what will an 11-year-old in 2090 know about baseball, I think, well, like what was on my crossword puzzle when I was 11? That's the sort of stuff, the historical stuff that that's how I learned things like the gas house game. And they probably quit making that crossword puzzle somewhere along the line. And I don't know if they'll have one. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:05:00 Well, there's the internet now, but I guess it's you have to go search for that stuff on the internet. It's not just presented to you. As far as Otani goes, I think he's more likely to be the defining memory of 2018 if he never does it again, right? Yeah, I think so. But if his arm just doesn't bounce back from the surgery or he's just such a great hitter that they just don't try it again and those 50-something innings are all we get of two-way Otani, then those will be legendary in a way that if he goes on to be a successful two-way player for years, which I'm rooting for, then we might remember 2018 as the start of that, but it won't be the peak of that. 2018 as the start of that but it won't be the peak of that yeah i think that's probably true i think more important is if nobody else ever does it i think if if you start to see players developed in two-way roles i think that that he will still be significant he will still be remembered as the start of that trend but less so uh if he's not the i mean there's something about being the only guy in 100 years who's done it. If he's the only guy in the next 100 years who does it as well,
Starting point is 00:06:09 then I think that makes it particularly permanent. And you're right. If this was his kind of... If this is the only year he does it, then it's kind of like Mark Fidrich's season that it looms much larger than it probably should. I mean, I don't know. Maybe not.
Starting point is 00:06:25 Maybe Mark Fidrich is really worth remembering for 40 years, but I don't really. I mean, he was just a really good rookie, right? But then that was it. He was a really good rookie who threw more innings that year than he did in the rest of his entire career combined, and I think that that's a big part of why I still know his name. And so, yeah, I mean, there's the possibility that he never does
Starting point is 00:06:47 both at the same time again. There's the possibility that he's never that good at both at the same time again, in which case, I don't know, Ben. I think that if he keeps doing this, I still think that this is remembered as the year he did it primarily. I mean, this was a big story, right? Like it was a big story before he came. It was a big story when he signed. It was a big story 2016. He was a big story. He was the rookie of the year.
Starting point is 00:07:13 And I think that even if he becomes a Hall of Famer going two-way the entire time, I still think 2018 will be a year and particularly, if not necessarily associated with the year itself the number 2018 i think that this year will be um you know three chapters in the biography more chapters in the biography than any other chapter in the biography is what i'm saying yeah you want to give us some of the other candidates and the one that you picked because there were some that you brought up that i had not even really thought of for a while which maybe means that they're not the defining memory of 2018 but it was nice to be reminded of them at least yeah uh so all right
Starting point is 00:07:55 so i'll give you a let's see my my the one that i think most people don't probably the fewest people even know happened that I included here is the Alex Bregman walk-off dribbler, which I just think is such an extraordinary play. So if people don't know this play, because I mentioned it to a couple of people who didn't know this play, it was the bottom of the 11th against the A's. The A's had scored in the top of the 11th. Blake Trinan was pitching. Not to be confused with the Alex Bregman walk-off pop-up. I was going to mention that in a second. Runners on first and second, tie game, Bregman hits a ball, probably maybe four feet, and it starts out foul, and then it sort of spins fair, but it's only foul for like a quarter second. Well, quarter second, that was supposed to be hyperbole,
Starting point is 00:08:46 but it was probably foul for quite a bit less than a quarter second. But it sort of started foul and spun right fair. Jonathan LeCroy jumped out and fielded it. And Bregman, seeing it go foul at first, didn't really break out of the box. And then LeCroy had the jump on him. So Bregman was just sort of standing there holding his bat. And all this happened within a literal quarter second. And Luke Roy picked it up, reached out to tag him.
Starting point is 00:09:12 Bregman at that point thought, oh, I'll avoid it. And so he sort of took a step back. As he's taking a step back, Luke Roy extends the ball, tags him. But Luke Roy drops it. It bounces off the umpire and then lands at the umpire's feet. Luke Roy turns around to pick it up. By this point, Bregman has finally dropped his bat and is running to first. And Luke Roy turns and with a easy throw to get him out, he instead throws it at Alex Bregman's head, bounces off his helmet into right field,
Starting point is 00:09:41 runs scores. Astros in this pennant race with the A's win the game. And it's just, I was listening to it at the time. And I heard there was a replay review after the fact. So for like seven minutes, a very long replay review for like seven minutes, the A's broadcasters are trying to explain what happened. And I had absolutely no idea what had happened. They could not in any way convey to me the sequence of events or who was standing where and i got home and i watched it finally and thought that yep that's weird so this is one of the all-time weird plays i've ever seen and it uh happened in high stakes by uh in a pennant race and i it probably won't it probably does not have a life on blooper reels on stadium jumbotrons because it's probably too long but it should it's insane and uh so yeah
Starting point is 00:10:35 so i uh i also as somebody pointed out you just pointed out but the least likely hit of the year this year according to stat cast was uh alex brregman pop-up that Eric Hosmer dropped. And that was also a walk-off. And it's funny because when Scott Boris was so mad that J.D. Martinez didn't finish third in the top three in MVP voting, well, I had an MVP vote. And I had J.D. Martinez eighth, which was the lowest that anybody put J.D. Martinez. A lot of people had him seventh, but I was the only one who had him eighth because I put Justin Verlander ahead of him. And I did the math, and if I had put J.D. Martinez first,
Starting point is 00:11:10 then he would have been in the top three. But I wasn't going to put him first, of course, though. But I had Alex Bregman third, largely because of his win probability advantage edge over everybody else in the league. And this hit and the eric cosmer walk off were almost a full win of win probability at it um so i don't have any regrets yeah it's one of the major reasons why he finished so high in clutch and then it's it's like when you
Starting point is 00:11:41 look up somebody like if someone has a really good like arm rating or just some kind of weird standout statistic and you actually like look into how the sausage was made. Usually it's not it's not quite the heroics, like the impressive display of baseballing that you would expect it to be like Alex Bregman. Two of his, I don't know, five biggest events like clutch wise and win-wise. Maybe even two of the three. I remember looking at this before. But that's it. They were just the worst hits he could have hit in those instances. It would have been better if he just swung through the ball. But he wound up being...
Starting point is 00:12:17 Do you think it helps or hurts the case for people to remember the Luke Roy play? The fact that he also had the Hosmer play. Yeah. the case for people to remember the lucre play the fact that he also had the hosmer play uh yeah i don't know that it helps or hurts because i'm not sure what our objective here is to make it memorable i think it helps probably that there's i don't know uh i think it probably helps and to the extent that the ball in play good things can happen if he had won the mvp award which in another year he would have, in a year where you didn't have two 10.5 war players, he would have won. In the median baseball year, Alex Bregman is an MVP.
Starting point is 00:12:55 The median MVP I once found is 6.5 war. Alex Bregman was, I think, 8.5 with with all this clutch stuff on a hundred and three win team. And so in a normal year, he's the MVP. And if you have the Hosmer and Luke Roy plays, then you've got enough that you can build a story around, you know, again, a page and a half in the kids baseball trivia book. So it would have helped, but it doesn't probably get in there. So it would have helped, but it doesn't probably get him there. By the way, it's the same way in reverse, Jeff. I don't know. I'm sure that we've all had the experience where we've tried to write about the worst base runner in baseball in a year.
Starting point is 00:13:34 And so every year I try to do this and it never comes together because then I go look at the actual plays and it's like a guy goes first to second on a single to center. And you're like, well, how do I make a gif of that, right? And so like Justin Boer this year took the extra base 6% of the time, which is like maybe the lowest ever. He had, what was it? He had, well, anyway, see, this is boring. He had, well, anyway, see, this is boring. Well, when I've looked it up, like, I've looked up, like, oh, Billy Butler, when he would make a bunch of outs at home in one year.
Starting point is 00:14:12 Same kind of idea. Like, here are really negatively valuable plays that this person was involved in. And then, almost invariably, you look at, like, wow, Billy Butler made eight outs at home. And then you look him up, and he's like, oh, in this one, he was just barely out. In this one, he was, what a in this one he was just barely out in this one he was what a great play he was just barely out in this one oh he shouldn't have gone but that was probably the third base coach oh this sucks this is a bad article and now exactly it's basically like fat shaming billy butler with a bunch of gifs of him almost being safe at home like so it just ends up we're in the same place yeah yeah so you had a couple candidates red socks i mean one of them is just the red socks basically just that they were really good they won 108 games then they had a really tough slate of playoff opponents and they won the world
Starting point is 00:14:57 series and they can be remembered at least superficially as one of the very best teams of all time. And then you also had as a single play the Mookie non-catch fan interference on what would have been a Jose Altuve home run, which maybe could have swung the series. Who knows? We'll never know. But the Astros actually outhit the Red Sox in that series and they lost. And that was one of the reasons that they lost. So that play. And you also had, I guess, that catch, the Benintendi catch framed in front of the Fenway Park scoreboard. I didn't. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I used that. I used the Benintendi catch frame as a reason that it's conceivable that we could remember the Orioles finishing 61 games behind. Okay. All right. The Ben and Tandy catch itself is not going to. Right. Yeah. That
Starting point is 00:15:51 image. I also didn't really, the Orioles is not really a serious contender either though. So Red Sox. Yeah. I mean, for me, unlike 99% of fans that discount the quality of the Red Sox slightly just because coming into the playoffs, we didn't think they were even the best team in baseball probably. Right. And I still kind of think that. And they just in terms of results are and are one of the best teams of all time. And that is how most people will remember them. And that is how most people will remember them. For me personally, it's just it knocks them down a peg to like a really, really great team, but not all time particularly well, but the distinction between the best team of all time and the most successful team of all time. And I think that usually when we talk about most successful, they all won the
Starting point is 00:16:53 World Series, right? Every World Series team is equally the World Series winner. And so maybe there's no distinction. And so usually we talk about the most successful in terms of dynasties or in terms of multi-year runs. And so maybe it takes that for the Red Sox to rise above. But I think if you're talking one team, one season, success, not true talent, I think that you could make the case that the Red Sox had, you know, maybe the greatest, most, maybe the most enjoyable season ever, maybe the most successful. That postseason run was outrageous, right? I mean, the teams they had to beat were so good.
Starting point is 00:17:30 Every one of those three teams. It's very possible that the Astros won the World Series last year. It's very possible that the same core of the Dodgers could win it this next year and the same core of the Yankees could win it the year after, and the Red Sox just plowed through them. And won 108 games they basically never had a bad a bad day they never had a I don't think they ever what did they have like one three game losing streak all season or something like that and they had you know they were good they were incredibly good it was a great season you know probably the best Red Sox team ever or the most successful Red Sox team ever anyway so the
Starting point is 00:18:04 Red Sox it seems plausible 108 wins is a lot of wins you know we take the best Red Sox team ever or the most successful Red Sox team ever. Anyway, so the Red Sox, it seems plausible. 108 wins is a lot of wins. You know, we take it for granted that there are a lot of teams out there that win more than 108 wins, but there aren't. Right. And the other one you brought up, which I think we may have briefly mentioned on that previous episode, is the opener and the breakdown in pitcher roles. And it's a possibility. and the breakdown in pitcher roles, and it's a possibility.
Starting point is 00:18:30 I kind of hope it's not that, because the opener, it was fun for a while, and then you realize it probably doesn't really help all that much, and it's almost symbolic more than it is actually changing the way that games go, or at least who wins the game. So I don't know. It's kind of an academic sort of thing. It's like a bellwether. It's an indicator of a larger process that is ongoing and that is accelerating. And 2018 was probably important in that process and pivotal. But it seems to me like that would not be a great defining memory for a year, just using a reliever first. Well, you believe, though well you believe though you believe
Starting point is 00:19:06 that in your heart of hearts that in 50 years there's not really going to be a distinction between starters and relievers right yeah probably not no other than maybe some some specific guys who are incredible and it is clear that this was the year that that became a viable trend on a team wide scale over the course of a full season yeah Yeah, and was adopted by everyone really quickly. Right. So in the same way that Bruce Suter is remembered in the sea of closers as like a significant year in the closer era, and the same way that 1988 is remembered as a significant year in bullpen specialization because of La Russa and Rick Honeycutt and Dennis Eckersley and
Starting point is 00:19:42 various other ways that pitcher usage has had pivotal moments. I think that this is probably the year that people will isolate, that they'll write Sabre articles about when the starter is all the way gone in 50 years. So I guess we can fast forward. We've covered almost everything, but let's get to what you actually chose. My answer is that I think that it will be the year of the Supreme Court ruling that basically made gambling legal in every state that chooses to make it legal. And I don't know how that's going to play out. And it might not be. It might end up being a footnote. It might not.
Starting point is 00:20:23 Maybe most states will ultimately not make it legal, or maybe it won't be. It might end up being a footnote. It might not. Maybe most states will ultimately not make it legal or maybe it won't be a popular gambling sport. But the visions that various writers have laid out, which seem credible to me, of a world in which you can bet on whether Daniel Descalso hits a triple and the whole game is filtered through this sort of ongoing opportunity to bet. It feels to me like in 50 or 100 years, it's quite possible that baseball will be primarily a gambling sport, a gambling venue, and that that will just so change the way that we relate to baseball as a reason to turn it on and that it will so change the audience for who watches it. And that it will so change the audience for who watches it. And that it might be seen as what saved the game financially. And it might be seen as what ruined the game, you know, culturally or not in both of those cases. I really have no idea. But as a business moment for the sport, it feels like it's right up there with the antitrust exemption and the, you know, like it's right up there with the antitrust exemption and the you know kurt flood ruling and free agency as uh and maybe as maybe the dodgers and giants going west as like kind of sport defining uh moments that maybe weren't even seen as that obviously sport defining it at the time so yeah i think that's possible.
Starting point is 00:21:46 I don't know how it will play out either. And I mean, there's, I guess, a couple quibbles or things that might suggest to me that it won't be, which is that, A, I guess it's not just a baseball thing. It's like every sport, it's everything, right? So maybe it won't be remembered as a specifically baseball thing. I guess if you're a baseball person, you will remember it that way. But maybe it won't be like baseball's gambling era because it's just every sport. It's everything's gambling era. And I don't know if it will affect the way that people like us consume baseball. consume baseball. None of us is a betting person, a gambling person. You have your Bryce Harper 50 homers bet and that lasts forever. And that's kind of it. And none of us actually gamble on baseball or bet on baseball in the ways that we could have before. And so for us, I don't know,
Starting point is 00:22:37 will it actually change the game on the field or will it just change stuff around the game on the field, which wouldn't disqualify it because if it just totally changes how other people consume the sport and how it's presented, then it could definitely qualify without actually changing things in game. Yeah, it won't change for you and me specifically
Starting point is 00:22:58 because you and me specifically already exist. But I have this theory that I've kind of, I mentioned when I was on for the rob nyer episode not long ago which is that i think we watch because we have adopted the reasons that other people watch i watch because my dad watched and he got something out of the game and as a six and seven year old i adopted the same sport and got some of the same things out of it and i think if you have a critical mass of people who watch the game for one reason, then the game becomes that thing for every inquisitive shopper. And so if it becomes primarily a gambling sport, I mean,
Starting point is 00:23:36 there will always be people who watch it for whatever their own personal reasons are. But as a cultural thing, as something that appeals to hundreds of millions of people, like what it means in the culture becomes defined kind of by the largest contingent of people and by the largest interest group, I guess, that gets it. And in baseball, that has always been, you know, it's the pastime. It has existed as a pastime. And if the cultural sort of meaning of baseball becomes something different, then I think that it affects who adopts it, who picks it up, and why they do it. I think to some degree what something means to us is not really our decision.
Starting point is 00:24:16 It means to us what we see it mean to other people. We're pack animals. All right. Anything else? Should we move on to the draft? Sure. Wait, I want Jeff's answer. Jeff, what's your pick? Oh, I've been doing minor league free agent draft
Starting point is 00:24:32 almost this entire time while you've been docking because I figured you and Ben were doing such a good job. Yeah, so you'll remember 2018 by your prep for the minor league free agent draft. I probably will. Alright. Yeah, I mean mean i think they're all plausible answers for me i'm sure it will be otani and i kind of hope that it will be otani for everyone but the way the blanc yeah i think i think yeah otani is the
Starting point is 00:25:00 easy pick i think it's 60 for me personally i think it's going to end up being otani and then i think that i don't know exactly what's going to happen with the opener just in terms of because the rays probably aren't going to use it so much next year as as they did this year because now they have starting pitchers and and i think teams are more likely to just kind of shorten starting assignments as opposed to kind of flip-flop and do the whole over-the-lever first thing more often moving forward so you're right that down the road the roles are going to look almost one and the same but i think that this will be also remembered as a year where the opener took off and then kind of went into hiding for a little bit it'll still exist and it'll be there in 2019 a bunch of teams are going to do it but i think in in 2018 people will remember that the
Starting point is 00:25:44 rays had a really really effective pitching staff even though they didn't pitch like anybody else do you think that in do you think that more people in in you know what let's say that this does in in 50 years let's say people do remember this year as being a significant year for for the opener or for bullpenning or for whatever these do you think that the rays or the Brewers will be the more lasting memory? The Rays. I will go with the Rays because, I mean, the Brewers took it to the playoffs, right? And there was all the hater talk. Hater talk dominated the playoffs,
Starting point is 00:26:16 but hater talk was basically just Andrew Miller talk, just repackaged. Yeah, but the Woodruff talk, though, and, you know. I don't think Brandon Woodruff is going to be remembered, period. I'm not saying that Woodruff specifically will be, but the Rays didn't make the playoffs. The A's were the first team to do it in the playoffs. That's true.
Starting point is 00:26:36 Well, for one game, though. The Brewers did it for most of the series. Yeah. And they got close. The Brewers, this little scrappy Brewers team, almost made it to the World Series with a 60% bullpenning plan. Yeah. The Brewers and the A's were just all about bullpen this year,
Starting point is 00:26:56 and they just rode their bullpens all the way to where they got. But I think the Rays still probably are more memorable just because they had the branding. They had the catchphrase, the opener. I agree. It's easy to remember. Yeah. All right.
Starting point is 00:27:08 So minor league free agent draft. We are drafting from a list provided by Baseball America and provided to Baseball America by MLB. It is, what, 520 guys this year who are minor league free agents. And not everyone qualifies for this and it's always kind of confusing about who is and who isn't so we are working from this specific list and again this is not just guys who signed minor league deals this is minor league free agents which is a specific sort of free agent so i don't know how we decide who goes first here last year we took 10 names each i have a random number generator up.
Starting point is 00:27:46 And if you wanted, what we could do is Ben, you could be one because B is first. And Jeff could be two and Sam could be three. And then I could just generate a sequence of one to three. I think credit should go. So Sam won and then Ben was second and then I was a distant third. I think something should be done with that. Well, so do you want to reward me for bad performance? Ben was second, and then I was a distant third. I think something should be done with that. The first pick. Well, so do you want to reward me for bad performance,
Starting point is 00:28:11 or do you want to reward Sam for good performance? I don't see why one is better than the other. So maybe we should do the random number generator. All right, here we go. I'm going, I'm going. I'm going to just press three quick times. I'm going to just spit them out, okay, before I can even process. Ready? All right.
Starting point is 00:28:23 Three, three, three, three, two, and then, of course, one's going to be next. Three, two, one. What did that do for us? So Sam goes first, Jeff goes second, Ben goes third. Same as last year? No. Yeah, I don't know. But I'll just preface this by saying I've never felt less prepared for a minor league free agent draft.
Starting point is 00:28:42 I know you guys just don't even try to prepare often, but I'm a preparer and I come into this thing with voluminous notes and spreadsheets usually. But this year I was deprived of a couple of my resources. I was going to say, because over the last few years, Chris Mitchell published a Cato guide to minor league free agents. And Ben was reading that before I was. And I think that was always crucial for him. And then last year, I also read it. And so then Jeff got left behind.
Starting point is 00:29:18 And Chris Mitchell is no longer publishing Cato publicly. And I actually wondered whether Ben would be able to convince him to give it. And so the fact that Ben is so stressed out right now is encouraging to me. I didn't think to ask. I should have. Maybe he would have privately provided those. But yeah, not only is Chris working for a team somewhere and giving those things to them, but also Baseball America used to publish a tracker that was kind of confusing because it would have guys who weren't on the other list and we would get screwed up with that sometimes. But it would tell you who had signed a major league contract. It would have like a little asterisk next to the names of major league contract guys.
Starting point is 00:29:59 And I always felt like that was something to target guys who had a major league deal. And now I'm just flying blind here. Can I say something? Can I interrupt? Yeah. You're on a schedule. You've got a tight schedule, and we haven't even started drafting yet. What are we doing?
Starting point is 00:30:16 Okay. We've got to start. Yeah. All right. So, Sib's going first. I don't know what I'm doing here, but I also don't know whether thinking I knew something before actually helped me in any way so here we go all right my first pick i think that there's only one pick that i'm extremely passionate about and so i'm glad that i won it it's it is dylan moore yeah all right i feel like an idiot dylan moore uh dylan moore was oh i'll tell you why dylan moore is at the top it's not
Starting point is 00:30:51 just because he seems like he's good but dylan moore uh signed a major league contract with the mariners almost almost immediately after the um offseason began and i've told you before that part of my uh part of my thinking on these things is something that Jerry DiPoto once told me, that minor league free agents, unlike major league free agents, as soon as free agency begins, you actually do get on the phone with them like right away because you want – like you're trying to communicate to them how much they mean to you. Like that's the main currency that you have when you're signing a minor league free agency is like I'm the team that loves you. And so you're going to get a real chance to play. And so Dylan Moore was one of the very first minor league free agents who signed by that very same Jerry DePoto. And then he was traded. No. But not only was he signed, but he signed a major league deal. He is not currently listed on the Mariners depth chart, which is a real problem. But that's probably only because they ran out of ink because Dylan Moore plays every position. Last year, he played first base,
Starting point is 00:31:52 second base, third base, shortstop, left field, center field. So he can't play right. That's probably a problem. But no, he was in the Brewer system. He played in double and triple A. He's 25 years old. And in mostly triple A, he hit 299, 363, 522 with 14 homers and 23 steals, playing every position, primarily middle infield. He is like, I mean, you know, he is two good games away from having, you know, Zobrist profiles being written about him as a mariner and he's got a major league deal and so that's just so easy that's it's free money for me yeah good pick not even on my list because of how unprepared i am he also if i if i could you guys i was looking
Starting point is 00:32:39 at his twitter feed to figure out uh who he. And it's nothing interesting. It's standard baseball stuff. But there was this one, which I had never seen before. And it really is incredible. It is a tweet. Probably a lot of people saw it because this video has been viewed 847,000 times. But it is a tweet from the World Series celebration in the clubhouse. And the tweet simply says, give Mitch Moreland a gold glove and it shows people casually tossing beers to mitch morland who's catching them and it grows on you it's like you don't you think you get it and then it just keeps coming and he's really got great hands and so i enjoyed this tweet a lot all right jeff oh it's my i must have misunderstood the order that's perfect
Starting point is 00:33:26 so i guess i'll uh i'll stick with the theme of minor league free agents who have wound up signing contracts with the mariners so i don't know how it's exactly pronounced but ruben alanis alanis ruben alanis let's uh let's go with let's go with them because he's a reliever who is a minor league uh free agent who signed a major league contract with the Mariners I think he is left handed I can confirm that he's not in a very short amount of time
Starting point is 00:33:51 he's not he's right handed well it's been confirmed to me and I can now also confirm Alanis Ruben Alanis he's from Texas and he signed a contract with the Mariners and he's going into his age 28 season, and he came from the Rays organization, and he had a bunch of really good peripherals in the high minors.
Starting point is 00:34:11 He had strikeouts, not a whole lot of walks. I don't need to explain this. This was my philosophy last year, which led me into bronze medal in this very competition. So Ruben Alanis is my first pick. Yeah, I mean, he was with the Rays last year and you got to figure they just didn't have enough room for a reliever they didn't need any relievers so you know he didn't get a chance right all right I'm just gonna go with one of the better known players on this list Terrence Gore who signed a terrible pick with the Royals then you
Starting point is 00:34:41 gotta be better than that I'm I'm telling you i'm not ready for this draft but i'm gonna go for him because well a because he was just on this podcast and i like him and it's fun to root for him and this is another reason to root for him but also because he did get a major league contract and there is some chance that the royals will just figure we're bad and we want to be fun and exciting and actually keep him on the roster, which he wants to do. And he's also just kind of a gimme for something. Like I'm almost certainly not going to get shut out with Terrence Gore because he'll come up in September or he'll get traded to a contender and he'll get a few plate appearances. So I just, I want to get on the board. There was a few. Yeah, there was. Probably a few. Early on, especially in this draft's history,
Starting point is 00:35:26 you wanted to get the one guaranteed eight plate appearances that would get you from a zero. Right, yeah. But, boy, you're upside. I mean, you basically took like Brad Lincoln with your first pick. My whole draft is just low upside just i'm going for numbers i'm trying to get a high hit rate with a low total i don't know it's not going to work out well for me but you're next all right i believe if i'm not mistaken i believe that i'm taking the last
Starting point is 00:35:59 player who got a major league contract i think there were more last year and i think that's part of why last year's was easier yeah but i'm taking'm taking Kyle Ryan, who I don't believe. Let's see. Kyle Ryan is a is a lefty and he signed a major league contract with the Cubs. And as we talked about last year and Joe Maddon's bullpen magic, which nobody's going to get that callback so never mind all right kyle ryan has been a detroit tiger for most of his career he is 27 years old former 12th round pick has appeared in the majors four years in a row and has a 3.87 career era in the majors with absolutely nothing else to recommend him. He has very low strikeout rates. And I meant to look up whether he's good. Other than that.
Starting point is 00:36:55 How did you find Kyle Wright? How did you learn that he had signed a major league contract? I went to the MLB transactions log, and then I just looked at every transaction that had signed a free agent deal that wasn't followed with to a minor league deal. And he was one of the ones that was signed as a free agent that wasn't to a minor league deal. I see. And I guess he actually, I don't know, maybe I might have some of this wrong because I guess he was in the Cub system last year.
Starting point is 00:37:25 So maybe they just re-signed him to a major league deal. But he was good last year. So if I'd done more research, I might have picked him first because actually I only knew about his pretty bad Tiger stuff. Last year in AAA, as a swingman, he started eight games and relieved in 14. 2.86 ERA, almost a strikeout per inning. More than a three to one strikeout to walk rate as a lefty and uh and he's tall okay jeff i will take with my second pick
Starting point is 00:37:53 harold ramirez harold ramirez is 24 years old he is a former top 100 prospect uh last season in double a with toronto he was much better than he had been the season before and this winter he's been one of the few players in venezuela who's hit better than williams estadio he uh and maybe most importantly he signed a minor league contract but he signed that contract with the marlins whose outfield is just absolutely dreadful they suck they're real bad do you know who austin dean is because he's a starter right now for the marlins and uh and so yeah i think harold ramirez he, he's a corner outfielder. He's played three games in center in Venezuela,
Starting point is 00:38:29 but the Marlins pulled him out of Venezuela. They don't want him to be there or something. So he's not there anymore. And this winter, I don't know if it means anything, but he had 19 walks and 20 strikeouts. Maybe something clicks for Harold Ramirez. So I'm taking him. He hit 381, 459, 556 in Venezuela.
Starting point is 00:38:48 And last year in AA, he hit 320, 365, 471. And he's only 23. Well, he's 24 now. This will be his age 24 season. And, you know, he's made a couple appearances in center field, although he's very, he's 5'10", 220. But yeah, how is this guy a minor league free agent?
Starting point is 00:39:14 That's wild. I mean, not a lot of 23 and 24 year olds on a very few 24 year olds on this list. This is interesting. Good pick. That's a very good pick. 16 steals and 18 tries last year. So I'm going to take another 24-year-old, Kieran Lovegrove, who is a right-handed reliever. He was
Starting point is 00:39:34 in the Indian system. He is now a Giant. He actually played in the Futures game. He was on the world team in the 2018 Futures game. He's from South Africa. He is the official minor leaguer of Cespedes Family Barbecue. And when Farhan Zaidi signed him, he said he's a terrific arm, a terrific prospect. He said there was a lot of competition for him, which sounded encouraging. So he has not been in the majors yet, but I'm hoping that this will be the year and Giants will probably be pretty bad. So maybe he will break through. I've never known his first name to be a name or his last name to be a name. So I like this. This one is interesting to me. Yeah. Okay. 6'4", 180 or 6'4", 280?
Starting point is 00:40:20 6'4", 185. I see a baseball reference. All right. You? All right. I'm going to pick, let's see. I got it now. I'm thinking strategically. I think I can wait around on him. I'll take, here's my safety pick.
Starting point is 00:40:36 I'll take Zach McAllister, who is, I don't know, maybe the closest thing to a Wade LeBlanc. I mean, Zach McAllister has been in that he is always in the majors. He's not a guy who's been up and down. He spends all the time in the major leagues and somehow ended up on a minor league free agents list because the Dodgers acquired him, I think maybe even in September last year, or was it August?
Starting point is 00:41:00 Yeah, it was late August. And then he sent him to the minors as probably bullpen insurance. And so then he ended up in the minors. But McAllister, a year before that, was excellent as a Cleveland Indians reliever and really had been very good as a reliever for three years after his conversion. And then last year he was bad, but it didn't all fall apart on him. It's not like he totally collapsed. He had a collapse ERA, but sort of just a bad fit.
Starting point is 00:41:29 And he's Zach McAllister. He's 30 years old. There's no reason to think that he's definitely done. So safe boring pick. That was going to be my next pick. So I think that you timed this well. I was going to choose him for all the same reasons. So I guess with my third pick, I'm going to take Luke Bard,
Starting point is 00:41:47 who's just a, you know, he's a dude, he's a reliever. I think he wound up with the Angels out of the Rule 5 draft last year. But I haven't confirmed this to be true, but leaning on my own memory, I think I recall him having like an extremely high spin something. High spin fastball, high spin curveball, maybe both. Maybe neither, but hopefully one. So I'm going to take Luke Bard just on the basis of someone is going to track man his minor league numbers
Starting point is 00:42:11 and be like, yeah, this guy, he's got a high spin thing. So let's give him 30 innings and see if he doesn't allow too many dingers. So Luke Bard. All right. I am going to take Devin Marrero, who is another Marlins guy. Good reason to pick people. Devin Marrero has been in the majors the past four years for some amount of time. He can play shortstop. He's a utility guy. He was with the Diamondbacks. He's now with the Marlins, and he is also a Miami native for whatever that's worth. I don't know if it's worth anything, but maybe that gets him a few plate appearances. So banking on the Marlins continuing to need bodies,
Starting point is 00:42:48 and his body has been in the big leagues lately. Wait, which Marrero? I'm sorry, it was Devin Marrero? Yes. Yeah, Devin Marrero. Okay, got it. All right. All right, what are we on round?
Starting point is 00:42:59 We're going fast. Ben's got to go. Yeah. Round four. I will take, I'm going to take this guy named ryan court ryan court has never appeared in the major leagues and i should have waited until the 10th round but ben's gotta go we're going fast and i didn't have time to to think that hard ryan court advantage for me to rush you he's 30 years old he's uh he's 30 years old this is not a good pick uh he's 30 years old he uh he's another
Starting point is 00:43:27 utility guy he was in the cubs system last year he spent the whole year at triple a iowa played first second third short and uh that was basically mostly shortstop though and before that the red socks same thing mostly shortstop in triple a and I read a heartwarming article that was written last summer when he was playing quite well in Iowa when he said that he signed he was a Cubs fan growing up and when the Cubs called him and offered him a deal it felt like a sign because he realized that he would have the chance to make his major league debut with the team that he had grown up rooting for and he was playing really well and it seemed like he might get a chance and that article was uplifting at the time and really depressing in december because he did not
Starting point is 00:44:15 and now he's a minor league free agent unsigned but he uh was the second best hitter in the dominican winter league this year besides hitting well year, besides playing well last year, he's a good ball player. I mean, he's like a high 700s OPS guy in AAA as a middle infielder who can do a little bit of everything. And so in the Dominican Winter League, he hit.372. He had the second best OPS in that Winter League. And so, you know, I'm there with him. Ryan Court. Ryan Court is his name.
Starting point is 00:44:45 Sounds better than you initially sold it as. All right, Jeff. Brandon Brennan, who I'm a little confused, but so be it. Brandon Brennan was signed by the Rockies, I think, as a minor league free agent. But then he wound up being selected in the Rule 5 draft, which was surprising. He wound up with the Mariners with like the 13th pick or something. I don't know how all of it worked some way so wait so they didn't want him when it all they had to do was give him
Starting point is 00:45:09 a minor league deal but when it cost them $50,000 and they had to keep him on the major league roster for the whole year he couldn't he was they couldn't pass him up at that price it's like if you if you have like an item that's if you have it in Goodwill And it's like oh this costs $3 at Goodwill I don't want this for $3 at Goodwill Wait this costs $15 at Goodwill I want this from Goodwill Let me confirm That this is exactly the sequence
Starting point is 00:45:37 Brandon Brennan Let's check out the The Rockies had just signed to Brennan a long time White Sox prospect To a minor league deal last month This was written in December So we signed to a minor league deal last month. This was written in December. So he was signed to a minor league deal on November 29th, but then the Mariners selected him. I don't understand.
Starting point is 00:45:54 Well, I guess they—40-man? Look, I don't know. But the important thing is that I'm taking him. He is mine. He is mine, and he is the Mariners. He was selected. What does it mean to be drafted 13th in the Rule 5 draft How low are the, whatever I'm taking him because the Mariners are bad
Starting point is 00:46:08 Alright Sticking with my theme of low upside Safety picks or perceived safety picks I'm going with Kelby Tomlinson Who was a Giants Second baseman and utility guy He is now a Diamondbacks second baseman And utility guy
Starting point is 00:46:24 And he's had at least 120 plate appearances In the majors in each of the past second baseman and utility guy. He is now a Diamondbacks second baseman and utility guy. And he's had at least 120 plate appearances in the majors in each of the past four years, and generally more than that. And that's serious money when we're talking about minor league free agent drafts. That's not just a smattering of plate appearances. 120, that can make a big difference. So I'm going to bank on that pattern continuing. Kelby Tomlinson, just generic infielder utility type. He was on my list for all those reasons. And yeah, maybe, I don't know, maybe something happens in Arizona. But OPS in his four years as a major, progressive, progressively.
Starting point is 00:46:57 760, 700, 640, 530. It's not a great direction to go, but yeah. All right. Wow. That's so boring. Yeah. My picks are very boring this year, except for Terrence Gore and Kieran Lovegrove. But continue.
Starting point is 00:47:15 Do you know, I'm looking to see if Tomlinson made the depth chart. I couldn't find the gold standard for a pick is somebody on a major league depth chart. And I couldn't find a player on a depth chart and maybe it's it's conceivable do you remember when we did this draft last year because maybe last year we did it later closer to the season maybe there's more updates that happen but it was hard it's hard to find yeah it was all right i'll look that up. Who's your next pick? I'm going to take Hunter Cervanka, who is a relief pitcher who, well, I'm afraid I'm going to, let's see. If I say anything, I don't know. All right. Well, the Cardinals signed a bunch of minor league free agents on the same day, I think.
Starting point is 00:48:02 And the Cardinals seem like the team, I don't know why, but in my head, they're a team that does good at this part of the game. And so Cervanka has appeared briefly in the majors, but he had an odd 2018 year. So he's a reliever. He's a left-handed reliever. 6'1", 145 or 6'1", 245? 6'1", 245 reliever, who has only appeared very briefly in the majors. So last year, he played for AAA Toledo for Detroit, and he was good. He had 27 innings, 31 strikeouts, 2.36 ERA. That's all really good stuff. He also was in Sugarland, which which as we know is the the premier
Starting point is 00:48:46 independent league team where many a player has gone to prove that he can get good good hitters out it's something like between double and triple a i think or so and he had a 1.53 era 21 strikeouts two walks all that was a really good year against a pretty high level competition and so that's why Hunter Cervanca is my pick he then uh by the way sorry I forgot he also then went to Venezuela where he had a 1.7 ERA in the winter league although the peripherals aren't as good and then he got signed by the Cardinals and so I picked him we did the last minor league free agent draft on January 22nd so it was later in the offseason although we have done it in december and we've done it in november even
Starting point is 00:49:29 in previous years yeah yeah all right jeff eric johnson is going into his age 29 season he is a former top 100 prospect according to baseball america and in 2017 he missed the year due to tommy john surgery and on the other side of of Tommy John surgery, he has become a relief pitcher. And so this past season in the upper levels of the minors, he threw 40 and two thirds innings and he had 12 walks and 45 strikeouts, didn't allow too many runs or homers or any of that stuff. So I think Eric Johnson is back on the healthy path. And he has converted from the rotation into the bullpen. He's not too old. So this seems like about the time he could, he's been in the majors before and he's been quite terrible at it. But I think this could be his opportunity to be not quite so terrible at it by working out of the bullpen.
Starting point is 00:50:12 I feel like, wasn't Eric Johnson in a big trade at some point? I feel like I know Eric Johnson's name from a big trade. I will tell you exactly what that big trade was. I want to say it was a Jake Peavy trade. Was it a Jake Peavy trade? James Shields, he was traded by the White Sox with Fernando Tatis Jr. for James Shields and cash. Ah, yes. He was, I believe, if I'm not mistaken, he was the guy the Padres actually were excited about getting at the time.
Starting point is 00:50:38 And no. Yeah. Good recap. So it was like the Jake PV trade, like eight years later. I remember. Padres to White Sox. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:50:49 Cause there's someone very similar in that deal, right? Someone like really interesting pitching prospect. He was just always hurt and he was coming from the White Sox. Who the answer of, of who that was is a, will be revealed to me shortly as I, as I look it up,
Starting point is 00:51:04 that was Aaron Parada. Yeah. Yeah I look it up. That was Aaron Pareda? Yeah, sure. Yeah. Yeah. It's funny, as you scan this list of free agents, there are the guys who you just can't believe are still playing, and it's fun to see those names again. And guys like Mike Olt is on this list, and Alan Craig is on this list, and Alan Craig had actually a good season. He hit really well in AAA. But it's funny how you almost, you just know the major leaguers on this list and Alan Craig had a actually a good season he hit really well in AAA but it's funny how you almost you just know the major leaguers on the list somehow like even though very few of them played prominent roles I'll just like know a name and I'll think oh that
Starting point is 00:51:35 guy's a big leaguer I couldn't tell you when or where or for how long and I'll look him up and it's like he had 50 plate appearances somewhere and didn't do anything. But somehow he just has like his name has the aura of major leagues in my mind. So I must have just seen it and remembered it at some point. Question for the panel, because I was looking at that old Jake Peavy trade. It also involved Clayton Richard, which I was surprised by. How many innings do you think Clayton Richard has thrown in his career for the Padres? For the Padres? Has he ever played anywhere else?
Starting point is 00:52:04 Yes. He's been with the Padres? For the Padres. Has he ever played anywhere else? Yes. He's just been with the Padres for like eight years or something. I would guess that he has thrown 1,118 innings for the Padres. Okay, well now this game is less interesting because you actually overshot. So what was the point you were going to make when I interrupted you? Well, Ben, you mentioned that one of the fun parts of this game is that you see names that you can't believe he's still playing.
Starting point is 00:52:27 And you mentioned Alan Craig. And I actually have a little note in here to mention that that is a familiar feeling that we talk about every year. But this year I noticed the other feeling, which is that you see a name of a guy that you think has been playing. Like you see a name and you think, wait a minute, he played 600. He had 600 played appearances last year. And then you look him up and you realize he hasn't played since 2014 and like you swear that you see that you swear you've been dealing with this guy in your life every day for the last four years and he's been gone every day for the last four years and i actually wrote alan craig as my example of i can't believe he's been gone since 2015. Ruben Tejada is the other one.
Starting point is 00:53:06 Yeah. How did we not see Ruben Tejada last year? Do you guys remember not seeing Ruben Tejada? Because I don't. No, I actually looked him up because that ended a streak of him being in the big leagues for a really long time. Same with Emilio Bonifacio, who was always a safe pick in this draft. And his streak came to an end,
Starting point is 00:53:25 as it always does eventually. All right, for my next pick, I am going to take Jake Patrika, who is another one of those guys. He's been in the big leagues six years in a row. He actually pitched 45 and two-thirds innings this year for the Blue Jays, and he's only 30. I think he's still unsigned. If he has been signed, I've missed it, so that's kind of concerning, but he has been pitching not particularly well, but he's been pitching okay, and he's been getting some time, so I'm just hoping that that continues. My draft is pretty boring this year. my draft is pretty boring this year. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:54:06 What are we, halfway? Yeah. You guys have almost, you haven't named, I think Jeff picked one player that was on my list, Ruben Alaniz. Yeah. And otherwise, I guess Kelby Tomlinson was low on my list. You know, the other thing about this is that you start, I don't know how you guys create your list,
Starting point is 00:54:24 but here's the most humbling thing that can happen to you as a baseball player is, so you start i don't know how you guys create your list but here's the most humbling thing that can happen to you as a baseball player is so i start my list and i like i start with this list of like 5 000 names and like the third one i see is neftali feliz and i think ah yeah i'll write him down and then the next guy i see who i write down i go ahead of or below neftali feliz and you can put ahead of and at the end of this I have 45 names and Neftali Feliz is the last yeah so that's what it's like to be the 2011 rookie of the year uh 2009 2010 2011 what year was he the rookie of the year uh all right all right I'll take uh well i'm worried that now i have to pick my boring picks or else ben's gonna take my boring uh so i'll take uh vidal nunio nuno nunio is there an nia
Starting point is 00:55:14 yeah there's an nia yeah yeah all right so nunio pitched for the rays last year did you guys know that yeah do you know what his era was ben uh-uh jeff no guess zero ben he pitched 33 innings by the way oh no i take it back 2.28 1.6 whoa he threw 33 innings with a 1.64 era he had 29 strikeouts and only seven unintentional walks which you can do the math pretty good yeah and uh he did give up 5 000 home runs but also a little shot yeah um and uh he also was in uh he also started for the raise in uh in triple a and and was also very good. In fact, as a AAA starter, 37 strikeouts, three walks. Wow. All right. There you go. Easy peasy. There's free money right there too.
Starting point is 00:56:13 Free money. All right. That's good. The player that I will take is Asher Wojcic. is there please help uh baseball reference but i don't know is that what it is him probably i'm gonna take him uh asher it's not it still counts if i don't pronounce his last name right yeah i think so asher i'm gonna take woj i'm gonna take woj uh because this this past year in the minors he was super good i've seen him in the past when I would do like pitch comp stuff for pitch styles. He has like a really interesting, big, huge breaking ball. And it probably spins a bunch.
Starting point is 00:56:53 And I think that it's time. He was really good. As a starter in the upper levels of the minors this past season, he threw a bunch of strikes. He missed a bunch of bats. He probably has a platoon split. And when he's been in the majors, he's allowed just like dinger after dinger after dinger. There's probably something about him that's bad, but I think it'll take some team this year,
Starting point is 00:57:10 like 30 innings to figure that out. So I'm going to take him. I got some bad news about Vidal Nuno. Uh-oh. Uh-oh. What? Just a little bit of research might have helped. Well, he was injured sometime in the summer,
Starting point is 00:57:28 and then he didn't pitch again in the summer. And now he is listed as a pitcher for the Torres de Tijuana of the Mexican League. And there's no reason that—I don't know why. I mean, there's no reason to think that he would—I don't know. I don't know. He might be rehabbing or something. He might be hurt. We'll see.
Starting point is 00:57:45 Yeah, he's still at the free agency, and he's probably just playing winter ball. That's not so bad. Is that—is the—well, so it doesn't say the Mexican Winter League, though. Yeah, that's—well, he might not finish the season with them, so. All right. Oh, by the way, it's Wojohowski. Wojohowski. Asher Wojohowski is officially my pick.
Starting point is 00:58:05 His Twitter name is Asher Wojo. So, yeah, I think even he knows. Yeah. All right. This is not a safe pick, I guess. But I'm going to go with Kyle Zimmer, who is, of course, the former fifth overall pick. Royals guy. Still a Royals guy.
Starting point is 00:58:20 I went out to Driveline Baseball, the training facility in Seattle, this summer to do book stuff, and Kyle Zimmer was there, and he was doing weighted ball work, and he was on the comeback trail, and I think he ended up going back to the Royals at the end of the season, and he said he was throwing pain-free for the first time in years. lasts and whether he can be one of these driveline salvage guys and career transformation people and i hope so and uh the royals should be bad and have bad pitching so if he's healthy and good at all he should get a shot i think if there's one thing kyle zimmer needed it was a heavier baseball uh he was uh he was high on my list that's the first pick that i uh that you've made that has has bummed me out he was high on your list you drafted ryan court in the fourth round well hi i have probably i have probably 14 guys that i would that i would take and uh so far only two of them are gone and so now he's the second one of those two. But yeah, there was an article written about him being at Driveline that I thought might cost me because his name shows up. When you Google most of these guys' names, you do not find...
Starting point is 00:59:34 Boots on the ground reporting. Generally speaking, when you Google these players' names, you find a hockey player's name instead. Or you find an actress on a cbs show um who has the same name but when you google kyle zimmer you get a a profile of how he's working out at driveline b quote about how he feels better than he has in years c how he's throwing 93 to 95 easily and d a kansas city a kansas city star columnist being asked if he can make the rotation. And so it's not a good – you're not going to slip Kyle Zimmer into the movie theater without the usher noticing it is what I'm saying. Felt like I had something else to say, but I don't know what it is.
Starting point is 01:00:17 All right. Nuno hasn't pitched in – anyway. All right. Anyway. All right. I'm going to take, because I don't know, in the genre of former top Royals pitching prospects, I guess, I'm going to take John Lamb. Okay. an advisor in this draft last year. The advisor failed to come through this year. Texted me about a minute and a half ago saying, is it too late? And it was.
Starting point is 01:00:57 But I didn't pick Lamb last year, and he pitched 10 innings in the majors, 50 batters, which would have, because I had a record-setting year, would have actually lowered my average. But he pitched really well in AAA. He didn't pitch well in the majors in a very short time, three starts, but he pitched really well in AAA as a starter at Salt Lake, which is at altitude, which is one of the three or four toughest places to pitch in the world, he had a 3.44 ERA.
Starting point is 01:01:30 He struck out 54 in 50 innings. He walked only 15 in those 50 innings. He's still only 27 years old. Well, he's now 28. He'll be 28. He's left-handed. He's tall. And he used to be a top 20 prospect, for goodness sake. And he's been in the majors.
Starting point is 01:01:52 He gets his shots and uh i don't think he's signed anywhere yet uh but yeah he will all right jeff uh let's uh let's take rookie davis i guess rookie davis is out there he is uh he's gonna be 26 in april what's up i just up? I just like that all you had to say was, Ricky Davis is out there. Ricky Davis, okay, here's Ricky Davis. He was a, you know, he made the majors with the Reds in 2017. His ZRA was almost nine, so that's bad. But he made it to the majors, and he was on like the usual prospect path, whatever.
Starting point is 01:02:24 He was like a back of the rotation, whatever. And then he had hip surgery this past season, and he didn't really come back from it very well. And then he was activated from the DL, and then he was outrighted off the roster. He had like a 6.5 ERA between levels. But he didn't walk many people, and he had some strikeouts. And I think that because he's so young, he'll be recovered from the hip surgery. I think that wherever he ends up, he currently is nowhere on a roster,
Starting point is 01:02:50 but I think he has a chance to get back to the majors because he's been there before. And look, we're in the seventh round of a draft where Ryan Court was the 10th overall selection. So I think that this is not the time to be poking fun. We're all choosing players because they're out there. That is like the number one, provided they're not Vidal Nuno, who's currently maybe playing in Mexico. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:03:13 Yeah. All right. Yeah. I'm down to, I now have no, no one I actually want to select anymore. Oh, well I have four.
Starting point is 01:03:21 I have three or four. I have consolation picks. That's all I've got left here. All right. So I am going to take John Birdie. B-E-R-T-I. I feel the need to spell that because no one would know otherwise. Spell it again.
Starting point is 01:03:37 B-E-R-T-I. He made it to the Blue Jays for four plate appearances. Or no, four games. 15 plate appearances last September. So he is a big leaguer, and he plays a bunch of positions, I think mostly infield positions, but has played some outfield. And he had an 897 OPS in AA last year, which is pretty good. He is 28 years old, about to be 29, and he signed with the Marlins. So I am taking another Marlin and hoping he gets more major league time there. He did smoke the ball last year. I mean,
Starting point is 01:04:12 he really did hit the ball, but he was 28 and in double A, which is a negative indicator. Yeah. Well, he made it to the big leagues briefly, but what were you about to spoil, Jeff? Well, so I don't, I mean, I feel like maybe I shouldn't say this while we're conducting this draft, but somewhat, maybe the weirdest name I've seen, and this is freely, let me just say, I'm not going to take this player, but you could easily justify it. Santiago Casilla is on this list. Oh, I have him as someone to mention at the end because I have a favorite. Santiago Casilla is one of of my he is the possessor
Starting point is 01:04:46 of maybe my favorite baseball fun fact i don't know if it's a fun fact it's not fun uh but over the last few years and i just wanted i have never told anybody yet that i know of and i haven't found the right uh the right place for it the right platform and i'm gonna tell you guys and you'll be disappointed but so i was gonna mention santiago casilla you're right he's here he exists yeah he's like he's he's he's old yeah yeah he's really old for 15 years though and he pitched pretty well this year so yeah yeah pick him well i probably should yeah all right who's next sam your name i'll take uh Sam. I'm going to take Dilson Herrera. He's on my list. Dilson Herrera, also former legit prospect. Not like a super one, but a fairly top one who is only 25 years old.
Starting point is 01:05:37 What? Yeah. Still? He's actually not. He's only 24. He's still 24. He's been that age for at least seven years. Well, he debuted at age 20 and got real playing time.
Starting point is 01:05:49 He was a major leaguer at 20, which you don't find on many minor league free agent lists. And he played last year for Cincinnati, played 53 games for Cincinnati after spending two years in the minors entirely. And he only hit 184, but he hit 184 with a lot of power. In 97 plate appearances, he had 10 extra base hits, five homers, five doubles. He had a 230 isolated power. A lot of strikeouts, but, you know, that's a thing. And now he's back with the Mets, his original organization, I believe.
Starting point is 01:06:25 I considered taking him. I probably should have. He doesn't play shortstop, which hurts. If he played shortstop, I think he'd be a better bet because he can hit. Hit 300, 370, 470 in AAA last year. Yeah. Go ahead. Okay, let's pick.
Starting point is 01:06:41 Let's move this along. Ariel Hernandez. I'm taking Ariel Hernandez.nandez he uh he's been in the majors i believe i wrote a very positive article about him potentially being elite after his major league debut where he threw like 101 miles per hour and he struck out everybody and he walks everyone that's i mean that's you know each one of those guys counts as a plate appearance in our scoring if you can get a guy who consistently walks the bases loaded and gets out of it, that's twice as good as a guy who comes in and gets three up, three down.
Starting point is 01:07:10 Ariel Hernandez did the rounds last year. He was interesting enough to be with the Brewers and the Dodgers and the Miners. And this past season, in affiliated baseball, he walked like 40 batters in 55 in the third innings. So like he has a problem, but he throws super, super hard and he is going to be 27 next year. So this is this is a shot that wherever he ends, I think he's with the Rangers now and their pitching staff is bad and they'll have opportunities in their bullpen. And maybe Brandon McCarthy, the new pitching advisor, whatever his job title is, will help straighten him out. So Ariel Hernandez, maybe he'll throw enough strikes to get a major league opportunity.
Starting point is 01:07:47 All right. For my next pick, I am going to take another guy from the former prospect camp, Reimer Liriano. Oh, yeah. Who, of course, had a devastating hit by pitch and multiple facial fractures back in 2016. And he has come back from that. He was in the majors in 2017, not for a long time, but he hit pretty well in the minors in 2018. He's 27 years old and he has played in both the Venezuelan and Dominican winter leagues this winter.
Starting point is 01:08:24 So he's covering all his bases. I don't know what the story is there. For all I know, he just got kicked out of one or something, but maybe he's trying to play in front of as many people as possible. Anyway, I am hoping that he gets another chance because of his former prospect status and decent hitting in the minors since his injury. Yeah, you got to love a guy who covers all the bases. Yeah, all the winter weeks.
Starting point is 01:08:47 All right, I'm going to take Deolis Guerra, who is another former prospect, but from more than a decade ago. Guerra is, in case you've lost track of him, is now 30 years old. Well, he's still 29. And he pitched in the majors for the angels in 2017 uh as a reliever nothing special nothing terrible mostly though he's just been in you know in triple a various triple a's last year in 60 innings struck out 70 as a part-time starter part-time reliever and he was probably the best pitcher in the venezuelan winter league this year 1.5 era 28 strikeouts and only four unintentional walks and he signed with the
Starting point is 01:09:26 brewers who i'm hoping are gonna have room for a lot of relievers 30 years old top prospect in 2008 made his major league debut in 2015 and will be a free agent six years from now six years from now. All right. Jeff. Okay. My pick is Jairo Diaz. I'm going to take
Starting point is 01:09:47 Jairo Diaz. Uh-huh. Okay. He's out there. All right. Yeah, I looked him up. Not on that list. All right.
Starting point is 01:09:57 You can all look him up for yourselves if you want to find out more about Jairo Diaz. He pitches. All right. Yeah. Okay.
Starting point is 01:10:04 My next pick is going to be Mason Williams, another former top prospect. He's a number 32 Baseball America prospect, and he's actually been in the big leagues the past four years. He got into 51 games with the Reds this year, and he hit okay, and he's an outfielder. He can play a little bit of center. Don't know if he's signed. And he's an outfielder. He can play a little bit of center. Don't know if he's signed. I don't think he is, but he is going to be in his age 27 season. And I like enough about him to pick him with what my eighth pick in this draft. So Mason Williams. And I am feeling pressure because of Ben's schedule. I'm picking Clint Coulter without a reason. Okay. All right. Jeff? Alan Craig. I'll take Okay. All right. Jeff?
Starting point is 01:10:45 Alan Craig. I'll take him. All right. All right. Cool. Yeah. That's nice. All right.
Starting point is 01:10:51 I will take Ryan Lamar. Ryan Lamar will be my second to last pick. He was in the majors. Wait, did you say second to last? Isn't that it? Wait, is this it? That's it. 10th round.
Starting point is 01:11:03 That was 10. Are you sure? Yes. Or wait. We are right. Let's do one more. One more. One more.
Starting point is 01:11:08 One more. All right. I'm picking Ryan Lamar because he's been in the big leagues and he was with the White Sox this year and also with the Twins and now he's with the Braves. All right. And my last, last pick, round 11, breaking new ground, is Ryan Merritt, who, Ryan Merritt, wild. Okay.
Starting point is 01:11:32 This guy, he made the Indians postseason roster in 2017 over three other pitchers who had spent the whole season in the bullpen with ERAs and the twos. He has a career ERA of 1.71 in 32 major league innings, a career ERA of 1.71. He did not pitch in the majors last year. That's how many relievers there are. And that's how little you should trust that 1.71 he did not pitch in the majors last year that's how many relievers there are and that's how little you should trust that 1.71 era but as a 26 year old in triple a he pitched 15 games started 13 of them okay 13 starts 71 innings you ready for this one guys 52 strikeouts two walks he He's Josh Tomlin. Wow. All right. He hits six dudes.
Starting point is 01:12:08 He's left. Yeah, he hits six dudes. He's left-handed Josh Tomlin in Cleveland. I mean, it's going to work. All right. Jeff, you got one more? I should have taken Ryan Merritt. I got Josh Lucas. Okay. You're right. I have taken 10.
Starting point is 01:12:23 So whatever. This one goes to 11 so for my bonus pick i will take santiago casilla can i tell you my santiago so that you can do the fun fact to do all right so santiago casilla from 2014 to 17 four seasons here's the zras okay 1.7 i'm gonna just round them up but 1.7 2.8 3.6 4.3 you see pretty steady progression right you see four very different pitchers 1 7 2 8 3 6 4 3 here's santiago casilla those same four years innings pitched 58 58 58 59 that baseball is such a weird sport because it has this like there is this hard cap on how much a pitcher can pitch and there is also this hard floor where we just need so many pitchers so it does not matter how good you get
Starting point is 01:13:12 you're not going to pitch more than you can pitch and it really doesn't really matter how bad you get as long as you're better than clint barmas you're going to pitch those innings and so he was four wildly different pitchers Used exactly the same Is there any other sport in the world Where it doesn't matter how good you are They're going to use you the exact same amount of the time I don't know, I only watch one sport 58-58-58-59, it's crazy
Starting point is 01:13:35 Alright, we have done it We have concluded another minor league draft Thank you all for joining us And we'll see We'll be tracking the plate appearance and batters faced totals. I never actually explained how we win this thing. It's based on who gets the most plate appearances and total batters faced in the majors. It doesn't matter if they're good or bad. So we'll be tallying them up and they'll be in the spreadsheet where we keep
Starting point is 01:13:59 all our drafts and competitions. Sam, thank you. Yep. Thanks. Well, we didn't get a chance to talk about Nelson Cruz signing with the Twins today. Apologies for. Well, we didn't get a chance to talk about Nelson Cruz signing with the Twins today. Apologies for that, but we had a lot on our plates. He did sign with Minnesota for one guaranteed year for $14 million, and then there's a club option with a buyout for a second year. Definitely did not expect to be in a place where in late 2018, we would be looking at Nelson Cruz getting $14 million and saying, that's quite reasonable, but here we are. I don't remember the specifics of what I said when he signed with Seattle, but I'm sure I was among the chorus criticizing that move, thinking that he would
Starting point is 01:14:35 be a shell of his former self by the end of that deal. That did not turn out to be the case. Among regulars for his four years in Seattle, he was a top 10 hitter in baseball, close to a top five hitter in baseball. He led the entire major leagues in home runs over that four-year span. Kind of incredible how well he held up. A 147 WRC plus in more than 2,500 plate appearances with 163 homers. He's going to be 39 in July, so presumably at some point he has to age. Perhaps it will be in 2019, but perhaps not. So he makes the Twins better, not by himself better enough to catch up to Cleveland, but between Cruz and Krohn, they certainly have more power than they had last year. Don't know where Sano
Starting point is 01:15:15 fits in. We'll see whether he's able to play the field. Not that he was ever really able to play the field well. Also interesting to note that Cruz will be older than his manager, Rocco Baldelli, in Minnesota, but he has resisted the trend league-wide toward younger players being more productive and older players being less productive. I know some of you will read into that given his previous suspension, and that's understandable, but one way or another, he hasn't failed a test for years, and he's been a heck of a hitter since then, so you can see why teams wanted him. Evidently, Minnesota won the bidding war over Tampa Bay and Houston. I don't know if it came down solely to money or whether there were other considerations involved. Anyway, that's one more notable transaction under the wire in 2018.
Starting point is 01:15:55 You can support the podcast in 2019 and hopefully beyond by going to patreon.com slash effectivelywild. The following five listeners have already done so. And if this is the last episode of 2018 for us, which it may be, happened if not for your support, both in terms of appreciation and emails and feedback, and in terms of finances. Patreon has allowed me to keep doing this podcast through multiple job changes, and I'm very happy that that's the case. You can also join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash groups slash Effectively Wild, and you can rate and review and subscribe to Effect effectively wild on iTunes and other podcast platforms.
Starting point is 01:16:49 Please keep your questions and comments coming for me and Jeff via email at podcast at fan graphs dot com or via the Patreon messaging system. If you are a supporter. Thanks to Dylan Higgins for his editing assistance. Please have a wonderful rest of your week. Happy New Year. If we don't talk to you before then and we will be back with another episode sometime soon. I know he's out there, the one my soul was sent for. The mist will clear one night and there he'll be.

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