Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 1415: You Can’t Predict Baseball

Episode Date: August 10, 2019

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Bo Bichette fun facts vs. Travis Demeritte fun facts, Javier Báez batting left-handed against a position player and why the shift appears to be exempt from unwritten rules, and umpire perfect games, then (30:46) talk to The Athletic’s New York Yankees beat writer Lindsey Adler about how to […]

Don't ever change, why oh why oh why oh Would you ever change, oh oh oh Please don't ever change, you're almost perfect You're almost perfect, you're almost perfect Hello and welcome to episode 1415 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast brought to you by Fangraphs and our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Rowley, coming to you from a hotel room in Boston, and I'm joined, as always, by Ben Lindberg. I didn't say where I'm from. I didn't say where you're from. Same places, as always.

Fangraphs and Ringers, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. You sound slightly under the weather, I would say. I have a summer head cold. Being sick in the summer is the worst. It's just the worst, but it could be worse. This cold could have hit last week during the deadline, and it didn't. So it's a lot like college where i would get sick immediately after finals but my body would have the good sense to keep it together until those were done so yeah a lot like that well it did hit just in time for saber seminar and for us to do a live episode of this

podcast which you will all hear early next week if you're not in attendance at Saber Seminar, but flying across the country is famously beneficial for colds and illness. Yeah, it wasn't so bad. It was a more pleasant flying experience than my trip to Cleveland, let's put it that way, cold and all. So, you know, it'll be fine. I sound more and more like myself with each passing day. So by Saturday, I might be totally back to normal. best winning percentage in baseball and they are doing it in just the weirdest way just the

strangest season and we're gonna ask Lindsay all about that but a few things before we bring her on first someone posted a fun fact that was on the Tigers broadcast I believe and it was tweeted by bless you boys the SB Nation Tigers blog and I think I saw it in our Facebook group. This is an alleged fun fact about Travis DeMeritt, the Tigers rookie, and here we are. Count the qualifiers. First player with six-plus walks and two-plus triples in first eight career games since Spike Owen

with 1983 Mariners. Anytime you can be in the company of Spike Owen and the 1983 Mariners, that speaks well of you. Six plus walks and two plus triples in first eight career games.

Wow. It's a lot of qualifiers and it's not the most impressive name to be associated with no offense to spike owen but this is in stark contrast to all the bo bichette fun facts going around which are pretty good so bo bichette of course has been on fire since he was called up by the blue jays. And he is the first rookie since Ted Williams in 1939 to record an extra base hit in nine straight games. So that's good because that's 80 years.

It's Ted Williams. Extra base hits are good. Not too many qualifiers. And then after he qualified for that one, he then doubled after the home run. And so there were additional fun facts about Bobachet. He is the only player in the modern era with 12 plus extra base hits through his first 11 career games. First MLB player in the history of anything to hit a double in nine straight games. So those are good fun facts, I guess. Doubles are kind of weird, but it's a very impressive start. So, Travis DeMeritt, I mean, I guess the Tigers, they've got to take what they've got,

and they don't have Boba Shett. They've got Travis DeMeritt, and he's done what he's done, and six walks and two triples in eight games. That's nice, too. Sure. DeMeritt is a underrated, high-stakes baseball name. Yeah. I guess as an outfielder the odds of him

crewing a bunch of errors is probably lower just because of fielding chances but could be he better he better pick up that defense or boy is he gonna be in for some bad headlines from someone somewhere yeah or meg rally tweets probably probably spike owen by the way had a 44 ops plus in his rookie season with the mariners so things must have really tailed off after those first eight career games for him yeah you know uh i will i will admit i i am sure that i saw you know i probably saw no i didn't see any of his mariners crew that was that was early i was not alive for for most of it and then yeah uh you know barely born for the rest so i don't really remember him playing for the mariners but i have a good reason because i wasn't around yet it's

probably for the best 1983 mariners went 60 and 102 yeah it was a bad it was a real bad baseball team yeah not making a lot of timeless memories there. No. So another thing I wanted to mention is that Javi Baez batted left-handed in a game on Thursday. And this was a weird one. Cubs were playing the Reds. It was the ninth inning. The Cubs were up 12-5, and the Reds put in a position player pitcher, Kyle Farmer. And so everyone was kind of taking it easy. And Farmer was just lobbing balls up there.

And they weren't even registering on the radar gun because they were so slow. And Jason Hayward, who I think is a friend of Kyle Farmer's, he grounded out against him. And he was just like laughing as he was running up the first baseline. And Baez batted left-handed, I think think for the first time in his career in a game this is something that he does in batting practice he's left-handed in life if not in baseball and so he has a pretty natural looking stroke and Joe Maddon told him to do it he was encouraged to do it and he just sort of looked like he tried to hit a home run but he was just waiting and waiting and trying to stay back and just couldn't stay back long enough because farmer was throwing

so slow so baez just sort of skied one to center field and that was that but what i thought was curious about this and tom tango tweeted the stat cast defensive alignment for this Kyle Farmer versus left-handed Baez at bat and the Reds were shifting on this play like standard like over shift like the the short stop was on the right side of second and the second baseman was in short right field and this kind of was curious for a few reasons i mean a how do you even know what javi paez is gonna do with a position player pitcher on the mound for one thing and also a guy batting left-handed who's never batting batted left-handed before it's not like you have spray charts that cover this situation you've not practiced this so i don't know how you could know

i mean i guess you could just infer you could suppose that a left-handed hitter is probably gonna pull the ball and i guess you can do that but a that's that's one thing just like okay this is what we drilled for position player pitcher facing left-handed batter who usually hits right-handed here's our alignment for this at bat but also like why is the shift i wonder exempt from unwritten rules and from like situations where you're not supposed to try too hard because this is the ultimate not trying situation you put in the position player pitcher the hitter is not really trying his hardest he's just having fun but the defense shifting is is not something that ever really seems to there was that one time right where i forget what the situation was i think

ben zobris was involved maybe i don't know but sam wrote that article i think about how unwritten rules are really like players trying to game the system. They're trying to get other players to do things that are not advantageous to them. And someone was mad that someone had shifted, I think. And Sam was speculating that the idea was just that you like shame people into not doing the thing that is good for them to do. But you don't really see people get mad about the shift. And I don't know why that is. I don't know what sets it apart.

I want to know how the Reds fielders, did anyone say like, hey, why are we doing this? Yeah. Did anyone say like, but so what's this about? What are we up to right now? Right? How confident are we that this matters? I would imagine that that is a moment as a coach where you're like, I'm really hoping none of my guys think too hard about this because it's already tricky enough to get not every player, but there are players who don't like shifting and it's not just pitchers, right? There are position players who don't like shifting. And it's not just pitchers, right? There are position players who don't like it and they grumble and they kind of like, you know, you can see them sometimes when you're sitting there. They like move and then they wait for the bench coach to look and then they kind of move back a little bit because they're like, grumble, grumble.

And if any one of them had thought for a moment, like, there's no way you have data on this. Why are we doing this? Why? Right. Yeah, it's strange. And I was actually misremembering it wasn't ben zobrist it was brian dozier and i think he was mad about a bunt actually not about a shift the the twins were shifting at that time as sam noted in the article so shifting just it seems to be exempt like you can't yeah steal in certain situations if you're up by a certain number of runs and you can't bunt and you can't do this and that but shifting is fine and

maybe it's just that shifting is almost the norm now there are teams that shift on most pitches shifting for some teams is more common than what we think of as the standard alignment. So maybe it's that it's just like, it's a deviation from your routine not to shift. The reason that sometimes people get grumbly about like stealing when you're up by a lot is you're pressing an advantage in a situation that you don't need to and that feels unsporting in some way, right? But, you know, we wouldn't have the expectation even in a situation like that that a position player wouldn't field the ball in order to record it out. Maybe, here's an idea, we'll attribute motive to this that there's no evidence for. Maybe it's just seen as an act of mercy, actually, because the reason that you shift is to record an out. And when you are having a very bad day at work, you just want your bad day at work to end.

And so shifting is fine because it helps you bring about the end of a contest that is already effectively over, but we still have to play nine innings because that's the rule. So maybe that's the reason that it's not seen as a problem because you're just trying to bring about the inevitable conclusion of a thing that was decided a couple innings ago when your guy had a bad day on the mound and now you're down 12 to 5 and Javier Baez is batting left-handed and up is down so maybe that's it it's that you're you're you're not trying to press an advantage you're you're just speeding up the the path to your uh inevitable demise right yeah in that dozer situation which I keep returning to and getting more accurate every time. I can just keep vamping if you want.

It was the Orioles chant Cisco, and Baltimore was trailing by seven runs, and the Twins shifted against Cisco, and so he bunted against the shift, and he got a hit, and Brian Dozier was upset about this, which seems very unfair because the twins were shifting so they were doing what they could to get Chan Sisko out and he was just trying to do what he could to counter that and yet he was the one violating the unwritten rules and not the other way around so maybe it's like is it that defense like is defense exempt from unwritten rules? Like people get mad at people on the bases who are trying to run up the score.

And then people get mad at Chance Sisko, who was losing by seven runs, but still trying to get a hit. I guess you're not even, are you not allowed to try to catch up? It's very confusing and inconsistent. to try to catch up. It's very confusing and inconsistent, but maybe it is, as you were saying, that it's just trying to get the game over with. It's not trying to tack on extra runs.

Right. You're like, so I've had a bad day, and I would like to go home now. And the Cubs are like, yeah, I get that. We've had bad days too. They had a bad day the other night. They had Kyle Schwarber catching. That was a bad night. So I think that it's perhaps just seen as mercy, right? We're granting, you are conceding that you would like to go home, and I am conceding that by uh by you know getting my this out more quickly with a better positioning then that's fine although i still think it's very strange as you noted in the beginning that they would that they would shift in that situation i guess you could just say like a gen like you said a generic left-handed hitter yeah is likely to do the following and so

we will do it that way and you know you're you're just as fine basing it on that as anything else and just assume that he has sort of typical tendencies as a lefty but it does seem very odd why don't you just play him straight up it's so funny yeah it's so funny i know and if you're putting in kyle farmer you're you're not trying to get the game over with really you're not trying as hard as you might. I understand why you're putting in Kyle Farmer. You're not going to win that game, but still. So I don't know.

Maybe, maybe it's that the Reds were trailing in that game. Maybe if they had been the team ahead, I wonder if the Cubs were still shifting in, in the bottom of the ninth. Is that unwritten rules? Anyway, I don't know.

The shift just seems like it needs its own unwritten rules anyway i don't know the shift just seems like it needs its own unwritten rules yeah it's it's exempt it's weird it does it does suggest an acceptance of it as a phenomena that surprises me because you would expect i just expect uh baseball players to be sort of fussy about everything because you know they can be a kind of fussy sort and that's fine we all have our moments and you know there's varying opinions on the shift there's some

dudes who really hate it so I'm surprised as you are that it would be you know considered part of the game to the point that you're like I don't need a role for that it's fine so last thing I think for me at least I wrote something about a concept that I'm calling the umpire perfect game. The article is up at the ringer. I will link to it for anyone who wants to check it out. But I got to wondering, and I don't remember what prompted this, but I just figured there must be some games where umpires are perfect. We know that they're imperfect most of the time, and it's a very difficult job, and they're doing the best they can, and they're the

best in the world at it, and they are quite successful, but they are not perfect. And yet, you play enough games, at some point, some umpire must have had a perfect one where he called every pitch correctly. And so I got some data on this from Baseball Perspectives and Effectively Wild listener Lucas Apostolaris, and it turns out that no umpire has been perfect when it comes to calling every pitch in a game correctly, but some umpires have been perfect at calling pitches on one team in a game. And we have data, of course, going back to the beginning of the PitchFX era in 2008.

And in all that time, there have been 24 Umpire Perfect games. So that is fewer Umpire Perfect games than there have been no-hitters, than there have been cycles, than there have been triple plays, all these rarities that we get push notifications about. We never hear about the umpire perfect game, but it does happen for at least one side of the team, one team's pitchers in a game. And you never notice. And there's no celebration. The umpire doesn't get mobbed behind home plate when he pulls it off, when he calls that last pitch correctly.

There's really no recognition at all except for a lack of people yelling at the umpire because that's how you know that he's doing a bad job or is perceived to be doing a bad job. And yet this happens every now and then. And the most recent guy to do it was Joe West, all people on July 4th and this was a day when Joe West was very much at the forefront as he often is because he was at the center of something of a scrum there was Joe Madden was mad because Pirates pitchers were pitching inside as they want to do and he got ejected by Joe West and then he ran on the field, and he was seemingly trying to get to Clint Hurdle,

who he was blaming for the Pirates pitchers pitching inside, and he tried this spin move to get around Joe West, and it was not very graceful, and it didn't work. So that was the big headline, and then another Pirates pitcher hit David Bodie in the head in the next inning by accident with the bases loaded and West had to warn both benches. So while all of that was going on, no one noticed that Joe West called every pitch that Cubs pitchers threw correctly on that day. perfect game in recorded history. And I think it's a cool accomplishment because we certainly pay plenty of attention to umpires having imperfect games. And most of the time they do, but the rare occasion when they don't, I think it would be nice if we recognize that too.

We were chatting about this a bit before we started recording and I understand that umpires are not naturally sympathetic characters, and that's fine. I don't think that we need to be, we don't need to go too far in the opposite direction and sort of overstate their case, but they have a very, very hard job. And the fact that they do it as well as they do is pretty incredible. And so I appreciated this article very much. I wonder if, and the answer is probably no, because why would you do this? But you noted in this piece that Scott Berry came the closest to an actual perfect umpire game for both teams in 2017. He called 97.2% of the pitches for the entire game correctly. And I wonder if you went back and looked at that game at all, because I bet he got booed just as much as a normal umpire.

Yeah, I didn't. I meant when I didn't know how many umpire perfect games there were. I was hoping there'd be like one or something and then I could watch the whole game and I could see like were hitters still complaining about calls because of course they probably would be. Of course they were. So I was overwhelmed by the 24 and didn't end up going back and looking. But I'm sure if you did, you could absolutely find hitters on the side that was getting pitches called perfectly against them that would still be complaining about that. got the former umpire who was a guest on Effectively Wild with me and Jeff last year, and he gave me the skinny on why umpires are not perfect. Obviously, it's because the pitches are really fast and they move a lot, and it's hard to be that precise. But also some of the other factors like shadows and guys with weird release points, and the start times are in the afternoon, and there's a building

behind them and Randy Johnson's pitching and he's pitching right out of the building. Or it's, you know, there are people moving around in the batter's eye, which is also the umpire's eye. And there are all these distractions or maybe the hitter's crowding the plate or the catcher's getting in the way or it's some terrible or great framer who's influencing things. So there are all these reasons why an umpire might be having a good day

or a bad day particularly. And there's probably some randomness here too. I think the league average these days, according to the method that we were using, is 88.5% of calls are correct, and that has improved slightly since the beginning of the PitchFX era and probably much more so since the beginning of the Quest Tech era because Dale was telling me that he wasn't happy when Quest Tech came in,

but he realizes now that it was a necessary corrective because umpire strike zones were just way out of whack and they were calling all out of whack and they were calling all kinds of pitches strikes that were not strikes. And so they needed that objective feedback. And I think things have improved. The accuracy rate has risen. The variation from umpire to umpire has decreased. So still lots of imperfection, but a little bit less than there used to be. I just can't imagine, you know, reading it and hearing him talk about the experience of the compounding difficulty of Randy Johnson being 20,000 feet tall already and then a late start and glare from a building and on and on and on. Yeah. Like I can't imagine being able to, I mean, first of all,

I can't imagine, this is true of both, of the umpire, the catcher, and the batter standing in against Randy Johnson at all. I would move out of the way. I think instinctively, I would be like,

nah, I'm out of here. Yeah. This is not the place for me. I don't belong here. And so just standing there at all is kind of incredible. And then to have all of those other factors, I just, you know, it's so hard. It's such a hard job.

And then you have to consider how many guys are throwing. You know, they have crazy velocity. And then, you know, their other stuff moves a ton. And it's just amazing. It's amazing that any of them get it right at all, that any of them do it well enough to leave a ballpark alive.ter's would. And yet evidently that's an issue. Like Scott was saying, sometimes your timing is off and you're calling the pitch too quickly before you can mentally replay it in your mind and maybe be more accurate because of that.

And maybe you're entering your crouch a little too late or something. And so you're not picking up the pitch as quickly as you should and maybe your your head's not where it should be and your feet aren't where they should be and so he had this mental checklist that he would go through if he felt like his mechanics were off where he'd just kind of check all these things and make sure they were in the optimal position, which I don't really think about, but they're performing. It's not athletic in the way that what players do is, but still there's movement involved and there's timing and synchronization and all that stuff can kind of get out of gear. So that was kind of interesting. And I'm sure a lot of people are listening to this and thinking you know what

would call a perfect game is robot umps is trackman that would call a perfect game just about every time and that's true there are certainly glitches and the Atlantic League has run into the odd issue with systems shutting off or earpieces not working and the real-time accuracy is not as high as the post-processing accuracy. And so there might be some issues there. But yeah, on the whole, you would get more perfect games with robot umps than you do with human umps. And Scott understood that. And we've had this conversation before.

But as he pointed out, A, you'd get some pitches called that are technically rulebook strikes, but no one really wants them to be strikes or expects them to be strikes because they're not really hittable pitches, like pitches on the low outside corner that are diving down outside of the zone and they end up below and outside the zone, but they just nicked a corner of the strike zone technically. So that would be a problem or at least an adjustment. I guess you could program the system not to call those pitches, but that's been an issue in the Atlantic League now and then. And the thing that's of more concern to me, I mean, you and I both appreciate framing, obviously, so we would miss that. I don't know how many fans would miss that. But I think also the tendency for the zone to shapeshift a little bit so that the zone on 0-2 is a little bit smaller than the typical zone. And the zone on 3-0 is a little bit bigger than the typical zone. And that may seem unfair and it might seem like, well, of course, it should be consistent from pitch to pitch. may seem unfair and it might seem like well of course it should be consistent from pitch to pitch but i think there's maybe a hidden benefit there in that it kind of gives whoever needs a leg up

in that at bat that leg up because if you're behind in the count as the pitcher or the hitter you get a little more leeway than you would and so i would think that if you implemented robot umps like the average outcome after a hitter gets to o-2, for instance, which is already lousy, would be even worse because they wouldn't get that smaller strike zone to maybe recover from that. And, you know, maybe if the pitcher falls behind 3-0, then the outcomes for the batter would be even better. And then I think you would get slightly less competitive plate appearances because it would be like once you fell behind like that, it would be even harder to come back from it. So I'm curious to see if that's the calls in the game are actually correct, well, we could just strive for perfection all the time. And that's a reasonable position too. It is a reasonable position, but you raise a very good point. Machines are not famous for appreciating a preferred aesthetic, right? They don't have aesthetic sensibilities generally. And I think that, you know, as we've talked about before, it is not either of our preferred sort of outcome. I think that having very good and precise

evaluating technology is useful, you know, as you point out, as you've talked about, having the ability to really dive into the zone that an umpire has called and use that as a teaching tool, I think, is incredibly valuable. And, you know, we want there to be a good zone because it's maddening if there isn't. And it sort of incentivizes weird behavior in hitters and pitchers if we get too out of whack. But I don't know. Yeah. I'll be bummed when it's, you know, a guy with an earpiece.

And as I've said before, people are still going to yell at that guy. And I think that's just mean. It's just mean. Yeah, yeah, right. Yeah, and I didn't mention there are like 156 calls, pitch calls per game, the average game, which means that the typical team has 78 in the average game. And most of these perfect games have fewer

because, of course, that varies. And the fewer pitch calls the umpire has to make, the more likely that you'll get them all correct. Last thing, I noted in the article that you probably can't get real-time updates on this because of the accuracy issues and everything. But if you could, if you got a push notification, like umpire Joe West is through six innings and he hasn't messed up a pitch for this team or in the whole game or something.

Would you watch? Would you tune in to see if an umpire could finish off a perfect game? Yes. I mean, I would. Of course I would. I would, but I can appreciate how I would probably we would probably both of us be in the distinct minority when it came to that. I think so too, but yeah, there'd be some stakes, there'd be some tension there. Oh, yeah.

Borderline pitch, edge of the zone, is he going to get it right? Oh, let's look at the replay, let's see if that crossed the strike zone. Oh, he blew the perfect game. There was just one pitch left that that i would watch i would definitely oh yeah and and as i as i said like i would want to see i would want to know how a crowd reacts to that and i would imagine it would depend very much on which side of the of the ball the you know for which team the umpire is calling the perfect game and whether that is happening in that pitcher's home park or not, right?

Like you might, you don't necessarily want a perfect game if it's not your guy up there. You might want some wiggly calls. And so I would love to watch a crowd watching that and have them know that that's what's going on, right? They all got that push notification. I want to see how they react to that. I think just for the experience of people watching, it would be incredible. Right.

All right. Let's take a quick break and we'll be back with Lindsay Adler to talk about the Yankees. All right, so we are joined now by Lindsay Adler, who covers the recently unbeatable Yankees for The Athletic. Lindsay, welcome back. Hello, guys. So I was just reviewing your preseason prediction for the Yankees' win total on the Effectively Wild season preview podcast, and you called 105 wins, which is looking pretty good. Right now, I think the Fangraphs projections have them at 104 wins,

so you might just nail that, but I don't know how much credit to give you because I don't remember how much time we devoted to Mike Tauchman and Gio Urshela on that podcast. I don't know if you called DJ LeMayhew team MVP, but I don't know about your process, but the results looking good. I've been anxious about that all season, thinking about where we're going to be September 30th or 31st or whatever, and how many teams or how many wins they're going to have and whether or not I'm going to look like a dumbass. So on a good track. Yeah. Well, before we get into the specifics,

what has it been like to cover this team? Because this has just been the strangest season. People must be passing in and out of the clubhouse of the roster. There are new faces all the time. Then those new faces hit 400 for a few weeks every time they appear. It just is wild, the number of injuries, the number of injuries, the amount of injury tracking you're having to do. You must just have like a mental checklist of, okay, this guy is due back in two weeks and this guy's due back in six weeks

and this guy's done for the year. Yeah, it's been really interesting. Aaron Boone's pregame pressers are always like 12 minutes now giving injury updates on everyone. But it's been really, truly crazy. I think it's been, I just don't really get it. I kind of thought in April and even May when everyone was injured, around then I think I started writing stories about like what was roster crunch going to look like when players were coming back. But then it just kept happening.

It just keeps happening over and over. And I don't really, it's been really crazy to watch, but it's been really cool because it's very clear that a lot of the established guys, they're finding a lot of joy out of watching some of these younger, less experienced guys come up and definitely make a difference. If you look at the Yankees dip chart on yankees.com, there's always a couple of guys who are listed as unavailable at the bottom of any of these. And the Yankees list officially goes long enough that their name's being cut off at the bottom because there are just too many guys, not only on the 10-day aisle but you know a number of guys who are have been on the 60-day aisle and and may or may not end up finding their

way back i'm curious sort of how you said it's a mystery how they're doing this but how how are they doing this because there was a stretch where the yankees starting pitching in particular was was very bad going into the deadline. And there was a lot of speculation that they would try to acquire another frontline starter to supplement the group that they had that has been underperforming in various and different ways. And then things have turned around. I imagine some of that is the benefit of getting to play the Orioles. But what has been different over the last, say, you know, 15 days in the month of August and the latter part of July that has helped these guys to sort of turn things?

Yeah, I think I think the coaching staff has just really put in a lot of time and energy into approaching their pitching problem creatively. Masahiro Tanaka's splitter has been an issue for him all year, unfortunately. Splitter has been an issue for him all year, unfortunately. And they have changed his grip to the extent where, to me, it almost looks like more of a forkball. But I think that's a thing that a lot of Yankees fans were concerned about. Like, they saw this pitching and they were like, what are they even doing about this? And I think what's lost is that they actually are doing things about it. I don't think Larry Rothschild is getting much sleep right now. But,

you know, they changed Tanaka's splitter grip. They're changing, changing James Paxton's like, pitch usage, incorporating his curveball more. And I think, yeah, I think getting away from teams like the, the Twins and Red Sox has been really good for them but i think what's been really instrumental is just that they seem to have kept this mentality that like this was one bad week one bad week put it behind them and it it hasn't snowballed which is kind of a miracle given given how things looked heading into the deadline for sure yeah i was gonna ask about the atmosphere and you mentioned some of the veteran guys enjoying seeing the younger guys succeed. But I would imagine it'd be very easy for a team that is going through this sort of thing and just dropping like flies to get down and think this isn't our year. And we can't keep anyone healthy. I think what Jay Jaffe wrote in his piece for Fangraphs this week that I think there have been something like three guys this whole season who've been on the active roster and have not been on the IL. So it's like Gleyber Torres and I think Austin Romine and maybe someone else. And I guess Urshela, since he came over, he missed the first couple games of the season.

But it's something where I would think it'd be easy for people to get down about, and yet I could also imagine it maybe being a bonding experience because you go through this difficult time together, and somehow you keep winning, and maybe that makes you stronger somehow. Yeah, they've definitely embraced it and rallied through it. And, you know, after that Red Sox sweep, I talked to Aaron Judge and I asked him, OK, can you explain to me what is so exciting about seeing the production you guys are getting from these guys who are just coming up and coming in and out. And I would say that Judge was about as effusive as he's been all season in talking about what enjoyment he and the rest of the team are getting from watching guys like Gio Urshela and Mike Tauchman find this success.

I think, you know, early in April when everyone started dropping like flies, I would say there was kind of this sense of like, oh my God, what is happening? You know, there was a little bit more concern, I would say there was kind of this sense of like, oh my god, what is happening? You know, there was a little bit more concern, I would say, but now I think, and I think this is something that's going to serve them very well down the stretch, that they have seen the adversity, and they have seen that they can get by with the depth that they have, and so, yeah, they very much turned it into their thing. They're very much enjoying being suddenly kind of scrappy underdog Yankees, which doesn't really make sense. I do want to ask about the depth thing,

especially after a deadline where they were pretty quiet in terms of their activity, because I think there were a number of people who saw some of the moves they made in the offseason and the accumulation of players who were perceived as depth pieces. I think we'll get to DJ LeMayhew and how very much not a depth piece he has proven to be. But there was sort of a concern or a criticism that this was unnecessary depth and that they should have gone out and just gotten some more marquee guys. and then they didn't end up acquiring another starter at the deadline is it just that they're they're comfortable with the guys they have they think that the changes that you've highlighted are going to be sufficient or uh is this did they try to get

someone and they weren't weren't quite able to i'm curious because it just does seem like such a contrast to the approach that they had uh in winter, which was there cannot be enough players and we'll sort of sort it out when these guys all get to camp. Yeah, I just don't think the options that were on the starting pitching market in particular were kind of seen as, you know, to the point where they would be a true significant upgrade outside of Marcus Stroman and Trevor Bauer and the Blue Jays asking price by my understanding for pretty much every team for Stroman was very high and so I think there's a lot of confusion over how the Blue Jays wound up with the return that they did but yeah I think I think the Yankees were very sure with what extent they were willing to go to to acquire starting pitching and I think

the market was pretty limited and then once the Mets and Reds hijacked it I think they kind of knew like okay we have to we have to find this success within within what we have I think you know the offseason was really interesting I definitely didn't really think much of the DJ LeMay who's signing but um so add add me to the list of people who look like fools. But yeah, I was kind of surprised that they didn't just bring in someone. But yeah, I guess they didn't like what was out there. Yeah, I wasn't blown away by the LeMayhew signing either. I don't know if anyone was. He is the one other name I was searching for, the player who has not been on the IL this year,

although he did have a groin strain and miss a few days because everyone's had something at some point. And I was taken aback when someone told me after that signing, like in February, and I think I may have mentioned this on the show, but someone who works in a front office said that their team's projection system, for whatever reason, I didn't get any details, had LeMahieu as a slightly better player than Bryce Harper, which sounded completely crazy at the time, but has turned out to be true at least this season. I wonder whether there is something we missed about LeMahieu. Like, did we underrate him because he was playing in Coors Field and maybe he is not the type of player who is actually helped as much by Coors Field?

I mean, he is a pretty good contact guy and you put the ball in play. Obviously, it's helpful to be in Coors with that big outfield and everything, but he's hitting as well now as he ever did there. Better if you do the park adjustments. Yeah, I think what's lost is that dj was injured i think a couple times last year i think it's been really interesting with this team made up of former rockies to to learn so much about the rockies this year but i think i think something that's really overlooked in playing in colorado is that you kind of have to learn to be two different

hitters and or I guess in two different pitchers so I wouldn't be surprised if actually DJ being able to play all of his games at sea level has kind of helped him to be a little bit more consistent but no I thought that I thought that DJ was just kind of one of those guys who was left there on the market and Brian Cashman was like, sure, why not? But they started talking about acquiring him basically right after the World Series. Jim Hendry, who is now a Yankees special advisor, drafted DJ LeMahieu with the Cubs. He's always been a huge DJ fan. And so he was a huge advocate for him. And then, yeah, those negotiations played out over a couple months. So there was actually an intent and a strong desire, I would say.

Which I just think it's funny that I think the general consensus was Cashman's just accumulating depth, but it was much more specifically intentioned than I think most of us predicted. the Red Sox collapse. And they also are lucky in that the next stretch of games that they have isn't super terrible. So by our rest of season sort of strength of schedule behind just the Twins, Astros, and Rays, they have the fourth easiest schedule. They're obviously going to have to roll with this group because we don't have another August deadline, but they are, I would imagine, super concerned about the next month and a half of games, but are looking ahead to the postseason and will get some of their players who are on the injured list back in time for the playoff run. So you don't have to make specific predictions, although you could if you wanted to. But I'm curious, who among this group that has emerged and has helped them so much as they've battled through these injuries,

do you anticipate continuing to be part of this team as they move into October, versus who do you think is going to end up sort of sitting on the sidelines when they get some of their other core pieces back? I think Mike Tauchman has kind of earned a spot. They definitely have an outfield crunch so you know in September obviously that won't be an issue but I think he's definitely kind of kind of won a role obviously Gio Urshela is I can't believe that they went from having Miguel Andujar almost win rookie of the year go down for the whole season And then Gio Urshela comes up and actually plays better than Miggy did. I don't get it. I don't get it. But for Gio, I think

my interest is in the long term. You know, they've now got two third basemen who can really hit. But I think, you know, Tauchman's really the interesting one in that he has shown so much defensive versatility. He's really kind of taken off at the plate. And he's just like a really goofy guy. Like, I think they really love his like, passion and just like hardcore, like, grinder emotion of it. passion and just like hardcore like grinder emotion of it I guess the big thing that I'm looking at until the end of September is whether or not they kind of I don't want to say take it easy but the the thing that they should be competing for now is best record through the regular season home field advantage but also with all the aches and pains and everything that's going on, I'm interested to see how they kind of use their roster when we get to September in general.

I'm just so fascinated by where they're finding these guys or how they're finding these guys, or is it just that they're finding them or are they creating them in some way? I mean, should we be talking about the Yankees as the Astros of building hitters? I mean, the way that we talk about the Astros improving pitchers, it seems like the Yankees have that ability with some of these guys who just kind of come out of nowhere. Is it that they're better at evaluating skills that are already there? I mean, when they go and pick up Luke Voigt for nothing, when they get Tauchman for nothing, Urshela for nothing. Were those guys good or did they do something to unlock whatever latent ability was there?

Or, you know, you could look at Aaron Hicks, for instance, who seemed like he was going to be sort of a failed prospect. And then they turned him into an excellent player or he turned into one with them. They turned him into an excellent player or he turned into one with them. And then there are just some totally mind-blowing ones like Cameron Maben, who was with Cleveland, who needed outfield help as desperately as anyone. And they let Cameron Maben go. And he's got a 155 WRC plus with the Yankees in 175 plate appearances. Cameron Maben's never hit like this before. So is this just total fluke? Like they are somehow getting the best season of every single one of these guys who we've

never heard from before and we'll never hear from again? Or do you think that they are adept at getting the most out of players that other organizations haven't been able to. I guess to go down the list, I know that they really liked how hard Luke Voigt could hit the ball. And, you know, I don't think they necessarily changed a whole lot with him, but they did some new, you know, routines and things to help him kind of stay in his swing a little bit. But I think for Luke, just the consistency has really helped. I think it's the same thing for Mike Tauchman. I think, you know, just not really

getting that experience. And he said something recently to the effect of like, you know, when he would be up with the Rockies, he knew that this one pinch hit appearance was probably going to be his at-bat for the week or whatever. And so I think in getting regular reps, he's really just been able to settle down a lot. He definitely was too anxious about proving himself in Colorado. And I think getting out of that mindset has really helped him. I think Gio Rochelle has made some pretty big adjustments to his swing. But Cameron Mabin actually began

kind of a swing overhaul before he got to the Yankees. And so when he was bouncing around with the Indians and Giants, I don't think he had fully settled into those changes. I think he was still getting adjusted to them. And I think he's really unlocked that now. And it's kind of like an old dog learns new trick thing. He's really been receptive to that. And it's been very funny because he's just so, Cam is so funny. And so to see him hit this well,

it's another one of those things, obviously. The Yankees themselves seem to have embraced funny. And so to see him hit this well, it's just it's another one of those things, obviously. The Yankees themselves seem to have embraced the sort of underdog, you know, vibe, which is unusual for them. I'm curious, because you obviously also interact with a lot of Yankees fans, especially on Twitter. How is the fan base taken to this team? And are they nervous, excited? Are we going to be dealing with Yankees fans who find themselves to be underdogs, even though their team might end up with the best record in the American League come the end of the season? I don't know if they are going to think of themselves as underdogs, but I would say they have definitely embraced, you know, guys like

guys like Gio and Mike Tauchman and Cam Maben. And it's been, it's been super interesting, because I think the fan base has been really, really frustrated with the injuries that they've had. I think every time a new one comes up, it's kind of like a throw-your-hands-up-in-horror type of thing. But then it keeps panning out. I would say, you know, having not covered the 1990s juggernaut teams i would i would say that it's

probably pretty easy to be really emotionally invested in this type of squad i would say that the sands are is out of their minds and as passionate as you as you could imagine as they're as they're seeing all these like you know crazy bottom of the lineup productions and, you know, Domingo German taking off and things like that. I but you almost figure that if he were to be unavailable well you you just have tyra strata come in and probably just hit great anyway just because that's what's happening this whole season tyra strata has a 120 ops plus in 54 plate appearances but it's like almost every one of these guys. And Mike Petriello wrote about it at MLB.com about how the Yankees have this historically low percentage of plate appearances given to bad hitters. And that wouldn't have been surprising at the start of the season when you looked at their projected lineup. But if you knew that most of that lineup was going to miss this much of the year and the guys who've actually replaced them.

And in some cases, the replacements have themselves gotten hurt, like Edwin Encarnacion, for instance. You never would have expected lineup depth to be the strength of this team, and yet it has been. So I don't know if it is player evaluation and recognizing guys who are just kind of buried in AAA for whatever reason, or development, some combination of the two. And it's funny that you mentioned that Voight just needed to go somewhere where he'd have a longer leash and he'd get some rope and he'd be able to actually play for a while because the Yankees have never been that team that would be the one to give the rookies time to you know sink or swim or prove themselves it was always the yankees were the place where like you had to be good right away

or you were sent down or shipped out or something so i guess that is a reflection of just the desperate times that they've been in at times this season but maybe also that their management has improved and they're patient with these players. And so I was going to ask how much credit Aaron Boone deserves for this because, you know, savages rant aside, like obviously he has steered this team to the best winning percentage in baseball right now, despite losing most of the team most of the time. And you'd think that would make him a favorite for manager of the year award, because that's how we award that typically. It's just kind of, you know, who had the toughest time or who surprised us the most. And so he hasn't recruited these players. He hasn't made these trades or signings. And at times it's not like he's had a lot of choice when it comes to who he's going to play on any given day but i guess just the fact that he is open to trusting some of these guys whereas other

managers would be like get me some generic veteran then again i guess cameron maybin is the generic veteran and he hits like an mvp so just can't go wrong no matter what you do yeah i think i think first and foremost a lot of credit goes to the guys in the clubhouse. It definitely comes down from the top from CeCe Sabathia and continues through with a lot of the more established big-name guys. They really just want these guys to come up and be comfortable. Cam Mabin, CeCe, Aaron Judge, well, not Aaron Judge because he's young, but Cam and CeCe remember how uncomfortable it was to come up.

And so I think, one, a lot of credit goes to the players themselves for making what seems like a really welcoming environment and saying, hey, Mike Tauchman, hey, Mike Ford, come up and be yourself. come up and be yourself but no I mean I think it's it's kind of nuts that a team with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Luis Severino, Edwin Encarnacion, we are talking about Aaron Boone being a manager of the year candidate like anyone can drive that team to to 100 wins or whatever but that's not the team he has and I think you And I think he's just really, it's really impressive to me that despite all the injuries and despite a lot of circumstances that could ultimately turn it into kind of a doom and gloom environment where guys are just dropping like flies, he's somehow been able to keep the room

to a point where they see it as a real rallying thing. And I think the way he's probably framed it and the support he's probably given to a lot of the more established guys, but also the younger guys, I'm sure that has really helped. And I think a lot of credit really also needs to go to the coaching staff,

particularly the hitting coaches, Marcus and PJ. We don't know everything they do behind the scenes, but as much as it's easy to say, like, you know, Luke Voigt and Mike Tauchman finally get playing time, it's not just that. But no, I mean, I think a lot of managers probably would have lost the room at some point. And they are definitely more united than you have guys like Brett Gardner, Zach Britton, Cameron Maben saying, you know, this is the most cohesive, happy team I've been on despite, you know, looking around and seeing basically a graveyard on the IL. Yeah. You mentioned Gardner briefly there, And I wanted to mention him too Because he's someone who I think a lot of people

Were surprised that the Yankees even brought back This year since it seemed like They had a logjam in the outfield And that hasn't turned out to be the case Because Stanton's barely played And Gardner's having his best Offensive season at age 35 Since like, I don't know, 2014

Or so, and he has remained productive. And I just got curious because he's up over 40 career wins above replacement right now. And if you go back to his rookie year, 2008, when he only played 42 games, but looking at just all players since that year, he ranks 17th in baseball among position players in baseball reference war, like between, you know, Hall of Famers and like perennial all very consistent and solid defensively and on the bases even at somewhat advanced stages and like gets on base he's just he's a good player very underrated even on a team where you wouldn't think there would be many underrated players yeah i think that's the really nice thing is that guardi is still guardi you know it's the the playing all the time thing i think is something that

in in a perfect world he wouldn't have had to play all these damn games but um no i mean he's he's really just been able to keep at it this year obviously he's had some more power but i think everything i think a lot of the small things that brett does get really underrated but he's just just kind of funny you know he's like kind of kind of grumpy southern southern brett uh just just still doing his thing well i don't know how any subsequent season could give you as many storylines as this one has it's probably difficult to cover just in terms of the sheer amount of news and people you have to get to know. But on the other hand, there's just always something to write about, I guess,

because there's just always some improbable story and some other person who's doing something that you wouldn't expect. Kyle Higashioka has a 114 OPS plus. Sure, why not? Just everyone. It just doesn't make sense. Being surprised by people's stats is my thing, Ben. Yeah. And yet, Clint Frazier can't even crack this roster. Poor Clint Frazier. Are we going to see more Clint Frazier? Does he have a future with the Yankees? I think he does. They need a left fielder, assuming they let Gardy walk. And with a lot of those younger guys hitting arbitration, like Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, payroll is actually going to jump next season.

So I think it's kind of undervalued how much having a cost-controlled guy like Clint there is going to help. I don't really know. You know, it's like, Clint made some mistakes and he needed to work on his defense. I don't necessarily think his stay in AAA is punitive. I understand it's probably very difficult for him, but it is such a lightning rod story where there are some people who think the Yankees are out of their minds for keeping him in AAA right now. And then there's some people who are, you know, kind of all, all aboard the talk man, sock man

train. And it's, I don't know. I understand they don't really need him right now because they have enough outfielders at the moment. But I guess like everyone else, I'm interested. I'm very interested to see where this goes. I'm curious, you know, you mentioned the important role he's having in the clubhouse with all of these young guys. I would imagine that this being CeCe's last season, this probably isn't quite how he wanted things to go with injuries. How has this last year kind of been for him? how he wanted things to go with injuries. How has this last year kind of been for him? Is he taking it in stride? I mean, he'll be back at some point here, so it's not like he's pitched his last game for the Yankees, but I'm curious how having the

injuries in his final year has sort of hit him, and is it just that he's leaning into embracing the young guys, or where's his head at right now? You know, I think, I don't think CeCe expected to need as much time off as he has, but, you know, he said the other day that like the pain in his knee is normally at an eight and then it's just, yeah, it's just, he, he goes on the IL or, you know, takes a break over the London stretch or all-star break when it's at a 10. But, you know, there's something CeCe said in his retirement press conference in Tampa. And he was like, look, I just wanted to be able to go out there and give it my all and not worry about the health of my knee. And I will just replace my knee as soon as the season is over.

But I think CeCe kind of knew that he was just going to have to push through a lot. I'm sure he's bummed not to be pitching more consistently, but he knows the shape of his knee. He knows where things are at. And I would assume he had a pretty good sense that he was going to get a lot of time off this year. It's just the knee issue sounds so bad. Like hearing him describe it as like a constant eight, I was like, oh my God, man.

How are you doing this? How are you doing this? How are you going out and pitching all of your weight on a knee that feels like an eight out of 10 on a good day? Professional athletes, they're nothing like us. Absolutely nothing. out of 10 on a good day professional athletes they're nothing like us absolutely nothing so the last thing i wanted to ask meg already asked which of these current guys might hang around after the injured guys return so i want to know about the injured guys returning and and some of the more prominent ones who are still on the il whether it's severino potensis and carnacion stanton

which of these guys is is the most likely least likely to come back and really contribute and be a prominent part of the playoff roster okay so least likely is probably jacoby elsberry um Jacoby Ellsbury. I would say, let's see, Gary Sanchez is supposed to be back this weekend. Giancarlo Stanton has started baseball activities again. Baseball activities. Oh yeah, hitting off a tee. Luis Severino, should everything go well? I'm really interested to see how they use him. I'm interested particularly because Domingo German is pretty much at the point where he's pitched more this season than any other in his career. I would say, you know, getting Seve and potentially Dillon back is obviously that's the kind of group that you think will make the most immediate impact since the team is hitting well right now.

But I just feel bad. It's been a lost season for Stanton, and I think it's going to sour him in the eyes of a lot of the fan base in a way that I don't necessarily know is fair, because he can't really help that he strained his PCL. But yeah, I think everyone's looking forward to the to the Seve Dellen weapons as being their, you know, as they said, their their deadline type additions. Well, you don't have to change your prediction. But I'm curious if you would like to revise

either up or down your preseason prediction for final wins. This is incredibly rude of me. We never ask people to do this. So you can just tell me to get lost also. That is a third option available to you. No, I'm sticking with 105. I like it. I think you should. I like it.

It sounds much more reasonable to me than it did the first time. Now it sounds about right. I know. I have been so anxious, insecure about making that prediction. And then every time they just keep winning, I'm like, wait, is this team of like random quad A guys going to bail me out for my effectively wild prediction? It's fantastic. All right.

Well, you can follow the latest twists and turns in the Yankees' improbable season at The Athletic, reading Lindsay and following her on Twitter at Lindsay Adler. Thank you very much for coming on and attempting to explain the inexplicable. Thank you, guys. And Meg, I will see you at Saber Seminar. Sounds good. Have fun, guys. All right, that will do it for today and for this week. Thank you for listening. You can support the podcast on Patreon by going to patreon.com slash effectivelywild,

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Thanks to Dylan Higgins for his editing assistance this week. You can buy my book, The MVP Machine, How Baseball's New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players. If you like it, please say so. Leave us a positive review on Amazon Goodreads. It does help us out. If you see us at Saber Seminar, please say hello. Meg and I will be doing a live episode on Saturday. You will hear it even if you're not at Saber Seminar a couple days after that. So please have a wonderful weekend, and we will talk dream of mine come true. And if it's clear or raining, there is no explaining. Things just happen, and so did you.

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