Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 1823: Building Up, Tearing Down

Episode Date: March 16, 2022

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a packed few days of post-lockout action, including news about the zombie runner and a ball-strike challenge system, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s fractured wrist and motorcycle mayhem, Pete Alonso‘s close call, Mike Trout’s vetoed position change, the Yankees and Mets potentially losing unvaxxed players in home games, and how […]

Hey Hey Do The Zombie Stomp Hello and welcome to episode 1823 of Effectively Wild, a Fangraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Rowley of Fangraphs, and I am joined as always by Ben Lindberg of The Ringer. Ben, how are you? We have no time to talk about how I am. We must dispense with the pleasantries. There's just too much news. Too much news. Too many things. So much to cover. I mean, it's a welcome change from having nothing to cover for a few months.

And it has been a great relief to focus on other baseball stories that have nothing to do or at least less to do with, let's say, the competitive balance tax, for instance. If I don't hear those three words in sequence for a while, that'd be nice. Although, obviously, they do affect some moves that are made or not made. But we're not focusing so much on the ins and outs of the CBA as we are about baseball transactions. And there have been a ton of them. So spring training has started. Excuse me, spring training presented by Camping World has started. And that's always accompanied by a bunch of news about injuries and position changes and such. But beyond that, about a quarter of an off season just got crammed into three or four days. So we're not going to talk about every transaction

because you can go read written coverage of even the most minor move at fancrafts.com, which Meg has been very busy coordinating and will probably be coordinating while we do this podcast. Hopefully teams will hold off for an hour or so while we speak here. But you can read about everything, even little reliever moves there is a post for all of you out there but we'll talk about all the major moves but there is also some general baseball news that we should probably touch on before we even get to the transactions some of it good some of it bad and maybe leading the list of bad news is that the zombie runner seems to be back from the dead or the undead. It's about to be back again.

Just when we thought it was safe to play extra innings, we are now faced with the prospect of the zombie runner being reinstituted, which is not official as we speak but all signs seem to be pointing to it being back and this is really depressing i was so excited for a season without the zombie runner and it's even more cruel that they have dangled that prospect in front of me and then yanked it away as many people pointed out when we tweeted about this, we do call it the zombie runner rule and it's proven to be apt here. I just don't... We were so close. So close. I feel

like... I feel foolish, Ben. I feel like we were in a horror movie and I briefly let my guard down and now there's been a jump cut and a monster has claimed me and I just hope that others can soldier on in my absence and we're not had in quite the same way so I don't know I just don't uh I just don't think that we really need to be doing this but here we

are doing it so you know it's like a lot of things in the world these days I'm just left asking why yeah there was a report in the athletic from jason stark and matt gelb that said that mlb is pushing for it and that also the union seems to be pretty much in favor of it sources said the union surveyed player reps for all 30 teams sunday to gauge player interest early indications are that players heavily support it this is like how i'm going to get red-pilled into becoming one of those people on Twitter who's like, these players,

they just got to get out there and take whatever and stop moaning about playing conditions and salary. They're playing a kid's game out there. What are they complaining about? This is what's going to drive me over the edge, I think. Not anything that actually happened in the CPA negotiations. But this is not surprising, I suppose,

but it's still upsetting. Just the fact that the league is in favor of it. Players are in favor of it. Fans are not in favor of it, but we're just powerless in this instance. I've used my platform here to advocate for a return to regular old extra innings. And it just doesn't seem to be happening. And I guess I get why players like it. Yeah. runner again well we do have a podcast ben so we're we're in good company when we impotently

whine about stuff yeah i think people calling it the ghost runner annoys me almost as much oh yeah the fact of the thing yes it's not a ghost runner there is a real runner i have made this point before but it just doesn't seem to be landing with the media at large we already had a thing called the ghost runner it's what kids play with when they don't have enough people. And so there's just an imaginary runner who advances station by station. At least that was how we did it when I was a kid. The point was there was no actual physical runner on the bases. This is not a ghost runner. There is a runner. There is a flesh and blood runner on the bases. This is different from the concept of the ghost runner. And I think it

annoys me even more because we have such good alternative terms for it. Not just the zombie runner, which I have advocated and which I think Dan Szymborski coined originally, but even Manfred Mann. If you want to go with the Manfred Mann, that's clever too. I prefer zombie runner, but either one is both more accurate and more fun. If we have to be stuck with this thing then let's at least have a little fun with the term and be accurate so if they have to bring it back i'm just appealing to everyone don't call it a ghost runner how can you not be pedantic about baseball i guess at least on this podcast oh i mean it is our sort of. isn't it but yeah I don't know We'll just have to bob and weave

Ben it's coming for all of us So that's my latest Zombie runner rant no time To linger on that because there is so much Else to get to so As far as other experimental Rules and rules changes there were Some announcements about the experimental

Rules that will be in place in the minors this season and also in the Atlantic League. And it's a lot of the same sort of stuff. Pitch clocks, bigger bases, shift bands, robo zones, largely the same or tweaked a little or implemented at more levels than they were before. In the Atlantic League, there's a modified double hook DH rule and the return of the dropped pitch rule where the batter can run to first on any pitch not caught in the air. And if they reach, they're credited with a hit, which is weird, but maybe less weird than the way it was credited in the past. The only really new wrinkle on all of this is that in low A Southeast this season, MLB

will test a challenge system in select games in which umpires call balls and strikes and the pitcher, catcher, and batter have an ability to appeal the umpire's call to the ABS system, the automatic ball strike system. In challenge games, each team will receive three appeals. Successful appeals will be retained. So what do you make of the challenge system, as opposed to straight up robo zone 24 seven? I feel like I'm out of step with our contemporaries, Ben, because this is my preferred approach. Oh, yeah. Okay. And I know that part of this is that I know Joshian has railed against this, but I think that his view on the robo zone is maybe different than ours. He's pro robo zone. Am I think that his view on the RoboZone is maybe different than ours.

He's pro-RoboZone. Am I remembering that right? So that's where the real divergence probably comes in, but I like this as a way of sort of addressing what I think we all agree is the real problem that the RoboZone is meant to address, which is the egregiousious egregious call that sort of alters the course of the game right we don't want one mistake that is to the naked eye wrong

to change the entire complexion of of a contest but we also want to keep things moving. And we, you and I, see benefits to a human zone that outweigh the benefits of a robo zone. And I think that those benefits can come in tandem with, you know, having sort of more stringent rules and expectations of umpires and making sure that the umpire core is sort of changing as it ought to and incorporates new and younger umpires and is sort of subject to checks and balances. But this is what peak performance looks like to me, Ben. And I know that people don't like it, but I would invite those people to consider whether or not they're wrong.

I will have to consider that too because I'm not sure I like this. I see what they're wrong. I will have to consider that too, because I'm not sure I like this. I see what you're saying. I'm with you on the RoboZone in general and not really preferring one. But if you are going to bring the RoboZone into it, then is this kind of making it seem as if, well, if you're going to have a challenge system, why even bother? Like if the point is that we're just going to try to get the most calls correct and have things go by the rulebook zone and have it all be predictable for the players, then why have it be half measures? I mean, you're saying that maybe half measures are better than full measures because you don't like the full measures and I don't like the full measures either. So it seems like I should think that too. But I feel like the closer we get to RoboZone without just having RoboZone, it almost just seems like, why are we still putting up a fight? Like if you're already, currently you have umpires graded based on basically RoboZone or a more accurate version of the RoboZone that get

readouts after the game to say, here's how you did, here's how accurate you were, here's how you can be better. And so I think that leads a lot of people to say, well, why not just have the computers do the calling then? Now, if you were going to do this, you would preserve some value to framing and receiving, which I like, and to having pitchers maybe be able to expand the zone a little through their own prowess and command, which I can kind of get on board with too. So maybe as you say, you're just getting rid of the more egregious ones, but there are a lot more than three mistakes technically in any given game on ball strike calls. And so what if those mistakes happen early in the game? Then you just say, well, I used my challenges, so now we're just going to live with the screw ups. And I just

don't know, like if we're going to get that close to it, maybe we just surrender and say, well, here's how it's going to be. You know, is there a pace of play concern too? How long would it take to do the challenges and review? Maybe it would be quick, right? I mean, maybe the umpires just get a little readout in their helmet or whatever. There's a tone in their earpiece that says, and then when the manager comes out and says, I challenge, then the umpire would just instantly be able to say, okay, I overrule myself or the system overrules me and there wouldn't be a big delay. So maybe that concern is overblown. I don't know. It just feels like fighting against a slippery slope that is inevitably going to win. Because if you just accept very publicly and you put it in the rules that the computer is better at calling policy strikes

and that we're going to defer to the computer when managers challenge, then what grounds do you have for not just doing that all the time and just saying, well, why be more accurate on three calls a game or six calls a game when we could be more accurate on all calls a game? Well, I have an answer to that, which is that we like some of the things that happen when a human umpire is calling the game. And we have plenty of precedent for this. We don't have a booth in New York call safe or out at first base, right? We have a challenge system already. There's already an infrastructure and sort of a philosophy behind this, which is that we accept that there is some amount of human error to the game. We generally think that having these calls emanate from the field is right. We want teams to be judicious with their challenges, which is why we don't give them an infinite number. And on balance, this allows us to course correct on the biggest mistakes while still maintaining the aspects of the system that we think are useful. So there you go.

I think that that's the answer. And everyone should just agree with me. We can move on. And then we don't have to talk about it ever again. Instead, we can talk about how Fernando Tatis Jr. should stop riding motorcycles. Yeah. So Fernando Tatis Jr., in a blow to the Padres and also to baseball as a whole, sounds like he may miss half the season in the worst case. And that's a big, big disappointment.

Baseball's back, but Fernando Tatis Jr. is not going to be a part of it for a while. So, yeah, he shows up at Padres camp. And it's a little unclear to me how this happened, but based on the reporting I have read, it sounds like, although he was photographed at some point over the offseason wearing some kind of cast or sling of some sort, which people wondered about. But he shows up to spring training, and evidently he didn't think it was a serious problem at the time. But then he said when he started ramping up for spring training presented by Camping World, he realized that he was not fully healed. And it seems like this probably stems from that motorcycle mishap. I guess I haven't heard that 100% established, but certainly

seems to be the case most likely. And now it looks like he's going to have to have surgery, although even that, I guess, hasn't been completely finalized as we speak here on Tuesday afternoon. But if so, then he may miss up to three months. And that's on top of the lingering concerns about his shoulder, which he opted not to have surgery for and said his shoulder's fine. But there's some underlying concern about whether that injury could recur. And now you have the wrist injury where sometimes you have to worry about the power not bouncing back immediately, even if players return. So in that tight NL West where the Padres figure to have a real race in for them again with the Dodgers and the Giants as well, that's going to be a big downgrade no matter what they do, whether they bring in someone, whether they go with Hassan Kim in the short term or some other combination of their position players, losing Fernando Tatis Jr. for any period of time, that's going to hurt. Yeah, it isn't good. It just really isn't good. I don't know that there's anything else to say about that. It's a real bummer for all of us who enjoy

watching him. It's a bummer for him. It's a bummer for the Padres. So, you know, it's always a tricky part of being a baseball player that you have to sort of maintain your physical well-being in the months when you aren't playing. And that requires giving up some stuff. And that's, you know, it's a weird balance to strike between one's personal life away from the field and your obligations on it. But I think that just don't ride motorcycles you know i i would make an argument we're gonna get emails about this but like they're so loud anyway just like don't don't ride motorcycles generally even if you're not a baseball player oh they have zipped through the neighborhood they're so loud yes become quite old since i moved to the semi-suburbs so yeah i don't know it's just it's a bummer it does feel like unfortunately

we're really back in spring training because we got a you know a sea of injury updates that i had to um you know message jason martinez about so i don't know like some players show up in the best shape of their lives some people show up with a pressured wrist so i don't know whether this is a case where the lockout may have had an impact on how this was treated or not treated because there was a strange state of affairs where Bernard Hatties Jr your wrist, is that a problem? And I don't know to what extent he was limited in seeing other doctors or could he have had surgery without talking to the team and not being able to have team doctors play a part in that. So I would imagine that that may have delayed the diagnosis and potentially the surgery here. So that is another ramification of locking the players out for months at a time. So that stinks.

And I guess in happier news, there was another potentially even more catastrophic injury averted in that Pete Alonzo, he seems fine, at least based on what we know now, but he walked away from a pretty serious car accident. And there's a video online, which I will link to, but his pickup evidently rolled three times when he was on his way to spring training presented by Camping World. I don't actually have to say that every time. I won't keep up that bit for this entire episode, but it looks like the pickup

was very banged up, but he got T-boned by a car and I didn't see what the other car looked like. And I wondered because Pete Alonzo's basically driving a tank there. I know that sometimes like pickup injuries can be very bad for the people on the other end of them, even more so than the people in the pickup. So I don't know what happened there. I haven't heard. But fortunately, he seems to be okay. And hopefully there are no lingering issues there. But that's a disaster averted. Yeah, it was very scary. And he's like, oh, I'm ready to go back on the field. And I wanted to be like, Pete, do you need a day? I like it'd be fine if you took a day to like you know recover even just mentally and emotionally from what had to be a very scary incident also i don't want to trivialize any of

this but like how strong is pete alonzo that he can just like kick the windshield out of his car i'm given to understand that that's challenging. So we might get emails about that too. But yeah, you know, sometimes you have very strange thoughts when your job is being like the assigning editor at a website. And one of the thoughts I had to have this week was I'm sure glad I didn't have to assign a Pete Alonzo obituary. So we're very happy that he is well and whole and seems to be doing okay. And gosh, that's just a very scary thing that we're glad we didn't have to think too hard about in a scarier direction, I guess. Yeah. I have never attempted to kick out a windshield, so I cannot testify personally to

how hard that is, but it can't be easy, right? Right. They kind of designed him to stick in there. Mike Trout, evidently. It's interesting. The Angels are kind of a disaster of an organization in some ways, but I would say that Joe Maddon has excelled in communication and people management in some respects too. I was particularly impressed with how he handled Shohei Otani and communicated with him and let him do his thing last season. But this is not great when your franchise player who's been a center fielder his whole life, not that there aren't compelling persuasive reasons why it makes sense for Mike Trout to move out of center field, but that's not the sort of thing that you just bring up to the media and

say, hey, we've had conversations internally about this and yeah, maybe it makes sense. And then Mike Trout reads about that on Twitter and has a meeting with the GM and the manager in which he evidently firmly established that he prefers to remain in center field and that, in have not been strong for him in center of late or really for the most part since his rookie year he hasn't been bad out there but he hasn't been consistently above average either so i get it like maybe brandon marsh is the best center fielder on that team these days but that is a conversation that you have to have in private first with your superstar franchise player before you just floated out there. I don't know whether he was hoping that the media would be like, yes, this makes sense. And the fans would be clamoring for this to happen or something. And then it would

put pressure on Trout or whether, as I think he said, he just hadn't had a chance to talk to Trout about it yet. But, you know, just wait maybe until you have that conversation to air it publicly yeah we talk a lot about how being a manager is mostly about people management and that's why it feels a little silly for the writers to vote on manager of the year because so much of the stuff that managers have to do and really have to do well happens away from our view but sometimes we get a little glimpse and and i bet they want the glimpse they gave us back. And I imagine this is one of those times. fully vaccinated and boosted or got a shot or what, but the same rules that have prevented Kyrie Irving from playing for the Nets this season in home games seemingly will also prevent Yankees and Mets players from playing in home games unless those rules are changed between now and opening day, which could happen. But we talked last time about how we will probably be learning a lot about

certain players who have to go on the restricted list when they go to Toronto because they cannot make the trip because they are not vaccinated. We may be learning a lot or at least confirming some things about Yankees and Mets sometime soon. And Aaron Judge, who is one of the Yankees who I will say is not known to be vaccinated. is not known to be vaccinated. He was asked about his status shortly before recorded, and he basically was like, I'll cross that bridge when I have to come to it or something. He did not say, nope, no worries. I am vaccinated. He didn't even go with an Aaron Rodgers, I am immunized or anything. He just kind of ducked the question, which makes you wonder, because if Aaron Judge or any other Yankee is unable to play games in New York or in Toronto, that's most of your schedule. That's

most of the season that comes off the board there. So that could be a bit of a problem. Doesn't need to be a problem. Could just get the shot, but a bit of a problem from the team's perspective if it cannot persuade its players to get the shot. Yeah, this is, you know, I guess the good news for those potentially affected by this is that there are so many problems in the world that we don't have an immediate and easy answer to. And this does not fall in that category of problem, right? This is a problem with both a very obvious solution and one that is widely, widely available. So, you know, I want the reason that people want to get this stuff to be that they have a sense of sort of community obligation and care toward the other people around them. And, you know, probably are conscious of the fact that while you play baseball games on an outdoor field,

you exist in the building for part of your day and that those uh you know spaces are sometimes quite tight and poorly ventilated and so like it would be good to get the shot but i would imagine that knowing that you are out of commission for your entire home schedule and the games you play in toronto might be a sufficient hopefully a sufficient motivator. So get on it, guys. Pretty easy. You'd think.

Even if you were under the illusion that this might somehow impair your performance, you would think that it could not possibly impair your performance as much as missing most of your season. Right. So I know there may be more than that at stake and there may be some principles of some sort at stake for some of these players or political beliefs or whatever you want to call it. But yeah, there is an easy way around this. Although the Yankees released a statement that said, on behalf of the Yankees, Randy Levine is working with City Hall and all other appropriate officials on this matter. We will have no further comment. I would not be surprised if they figure out a way to get away around these rules or get the rules changed between now and April 7th, but we will see. I just continue to

want to know so much less about your mayoral politics than I do, Ben. Yeah, me too, frankly, but I live here, so. Great. I know so much about them them I know at least as much about your mayoral politics as I do about my mayoral politics and I just had to vote in a city council election so like I do not know as much about Phoenix's mayoral situation it's odd how it only works in one way yeah isn't that odd isn't it odd though yes you know you know, I don't need to know so much about your guys' guys and gals. I don't need to know, like LA could know a lot less about what's going on in LA.

And I realize it's important and a lot of people live there and I'm not indifferent to the impact that it has on millions of real people. I'm just saying, I am not one of those millions of real people. And so a greater level of acceptable indifference would be appreciated. That's all. Yeah. Understandable. At least it looks like the rest of the country could be getting on board with your time zones handling of daylight savings time. So that's something. Yeah. Get on Arizona's level,

a thing I get to say exactly one time a year. Yes, and a rare issue with bipartisan support. Also something that we really get to say. So, Jerry DePoto is ready to transact. We are ready to discuss some transactions. So where do we begin? With Williams-Ostadillo signing the minor league deal with the Marlins? That's the headline, really. Yeah.

Well, let me say that I submit that we should start with Atlanta and Oakland. That seems to be the marquee because we got two two-fers here. We got two two-fers. So should we start with Matt Olson? Should we just start with the biggest move so far? Yeah, I think we should. Yeah. So as we speak, Freddie Freeman remains a free agent talking to various teams, and maybe there will be some resolution there sometime soon. But barring something very improbable, it does not seem like he will be returning to Atlanta. In fact, he will be replaced by Matt Olsen. Matt Olsen. Who has not only been acquired by the Braves, but has been extended long term by the Braves. So this gave us some insight into two of the offseason's biggest stories, one of which was Will Freddie Freeman resigned with Atlanta, and the other of which was where will Matt Olsen go? So now we know that it's to Atlanta. Matt Olson go.

So now we know that it's to Atlanta. So the deal was catcher, Shay Lang Lears, Christian Pache, Ryan Cusick, Joey Estes to Oakland in exchange for Matt Olson. And Matt Olson subsequently has been extended by Atlanta to an eight year contract, eight years, 168 million that runs through 2029 so there are a couple ways to

break this down and i definitely want to get into how bittersweet this must be for braves fans probably emphasis on the bitter for now although maybe sweet long term perhaps but for the A's, this is one domino of what will probably be a few, right? So it sounds as if Sean Minaya will be on the move. It sounds as if Matt Chapman may be on the move at some point, perhaps a little less urgently. But we've known for a while that the A's are going to be doing a teardown of some sort, whether they needed to or not. And this is a big part of that, obviously, in that they have traded their best hitter, best player probably, to the Braves.

And it's a big prospect package. They got back, and you are more of a prospect person than I am, and you have edited FanC fan grass prospect coverage here. So what should we know about what the A's got back here? Because again, like Frankie Montas could be on the move. Like there will be more here. They're transforming their farm system and we'll probably also get to the

Chris Bassett trade, a move that was already made to the Mets here. So they did get quite a bit back though, a couple top 100 prospects at least, right? So the headliner here, at least from our prospect team's perspective, is Langoliers. He was ranked 70th overall on our top 100. Pache came in at 72nd. Langoliers is interesting for them for a couple of reasons. I mean, I think that the Eric and Tass and KG are pretty high on him. He wasn't the most highly ranked catcher in the top 100,

but you might recall from our top 100 conversation that the top 100 was lousy with catchers. So him being the eighth ranked one isn't, you know, isn't anything to sneeze at. He is interesting for them, not only because of what he could potentially bring to the team himself but what his presence there might mean for the long-term sort of future of sean murphy because langleyers is projected to sort of be a you know a big league regular and murphy will come

up on arbitration at some point here which might mean that he could also be on the move in the next 18 months pasha is the guy who people are probably the most familiar with. He is just like a truly superlative center fielder who might be able to hit, question mark, right? The sort of big question for him is going to be how the bat progresses. He had one really good year in the minors and then was sort of having a hard time breaking in on the Atlanta outfield at a time when they had a number of injuries and were giving at-bats to Guillermo Heredia. So it suggests that the bat is not big league ready, although I imagine he is going to get

a fair amount of run in Oakland given their situation. As Eric and KG pointed out, it's going to be really fun to watch him playing in that big old outfield. That's true, yeah. And the carrying tool here really is the defense, but the bat will need to come along at least a little bit in order for him to really stick as a big league regular.

And then the other two guys are a little further away. I think they're sort of exciting young pitchers, but they're not as close as Lengeliers and Pache are. So I think that the expectation is that, as I said, Pache will get a good amount of run at the big league level this year, and that we might expect that Lengeliers starts the year at AAA, is added to the 40-man after the season, and then makes his debut in 2023. So you also mentioned some of the other guys who came over to Oakland in a separate deal that they did with the Mets that netted them, JT Ginn and Adam Aller. That combination of moves has had a

not small impact on where Oakland's farm system ranks for us. So we're not completely done with our org list, which means that we're not ready to release our farm system rankings. But the back of the envelope math means that they have moved from near the very bottom of the farm system rankings, which is where they were at the end of last season to sort of being in the bottom of the middle third. And given that we expect that there will be more movement here, as you said, with Montas and potentially Sean Mania, and then whatever they end up doing with Matt Chapman. Yeah. Or maybe Ramon Laureano, who is maybe expendable now. He's still serving his PD suspension. Right. Yeah. Yeah. That they might end up being sort of middle of the pack within the next couple of months. I think that one thing that Eric and KG noted in their piece,

which is interesting for us to think about with respect to the A's, is that they have, and here I am quoting from them, have a penchant for adding near-ready prospects via trade. That may be because they have more info on those players and feel better about what the hit rate on those prospects will be, which would make sense because the intense budgetary restrictions put on the front office by the team's ownership gives them less margin for error around prospects, but could also result in them returning to respectability, if not outright contention,

more quickly than teams like, say, Baltimore or Pittsburgh, which have tended to target prospects who are further away from the big leagues. So I don't want to say this is good if you're an Oakland fan. I mean, I think these prospects are good. I know that this experience feels really icky. If you want to feel optimistic, there might be a quicker turnaround for this kind of thing than there are for some of the longer,

more down-to-the-studs rebuilds that we've seen, but none of that resolves the fundamental issue that Oakland faces, which is that their ownership group is just really uninterested in spending any money. So, you know, real mixed bag. And then a mixed bag of feelings for Atlanta fans, I would imagine. Right. And that's the thing. Yeah. And maybe when we talk about the Reds a little later, maybe we can do a compare and contrast with what the Reds are doing and what the A's are doing and whether there is any distinction to draw between those two teardowns or whether they're mostly the same.

But I think most people are probably interested in what this means for the Braves and Freddie Freeman. More people than are interested in what it means for Oakland's minor league system, though that is important too. But if you had told me that this was going to happen the day after the World Series, I would have been shocked. I mean, I'm not so shocked by it now just because it was going on for so long, this saga of are they going to bring Freddie Freeman back or what? What's taken so long? And we got to wonder about that throughout the entire lockout. And there were reports. And again, it's hard to know how credible some rumors and reports are. But from what we heard, it didn't seem as if Freeman was asking for any kind of

unreasonable contract. And given how good he is and how good he's been for so long and what he has meant to that franchise and the fact that they just won a World Series and that, as we know from publicly disclosed financial figures, they have money to spend, they could afford Freddie Freeman, a fan favorite, a link to the chipper jones incarnation of the braves really never would have thought especially given the fact that world series winning teams as we've discussed and i've written about before tend to lock up a lot of their players they tend to bring back most of their players for another go around and so the fact that they decided to move on from freeman now the fact that they got Olsen back, that cushions the blow substantially, I would imagine.

And it turns it into a different kind of thing. If we were just talking about cutting loose a guy purely because of payroll concerns and not making any attempt to compete, you can make a good case that the Braves are better with Olsen or that they will be better long term with Olsen. We can talk about that. But even if you think that's the case, it is still tough to swallow for Atlanta fans to lose a guy like Freeman, who's been so good for them for so long and just seems to be such a great guy to the extent that we can know anything about whether these guys are actually great guys or not. His public persona know his public persona at least is among the most charismatic and engaging and likable players and so to lose him and to lose him in

this way like it's not like they were just blown out of the water by some 10-year offer or something you know i don't know whether to believe the like well they were willing to give him five years but he wanted a sixth year or something like if that's the sticking point, then it's sort of hard to understand just because of the marquee value. You know, it just comes down to like the cold economic calculus of here's what this guy is worth in dollars per war or whatever. And will we be better without him? And how do you quantify just what he means to the fans or how many fans he created there and so joel sherman reported via a source that the braves did not give freeman or his representatives a heads up that the olsen trade was coming i can't

verify that and i don't know to what extent they were communicating at that point already on the other hand mark bowman tweeted that a Anthopoulos was holding back tears as he discussed having to make the trade, that it was the hardest thing he's had to do. Of course, he didn't have to do it. line despite the fact that Atlanta just won the World Series and got a whole bunch of playoff revenue and one would expect merch sales and season ticket sales and all the usual boosts you get after winning a World Series did they just say we're not going to spend enough to keep this guy and then Anthopolis said okay working within those constraints I'm going to go get another superstar who maybe doesn't have the name value and reputation that Freeman does but is four and a half years younger and is coming off a season that was every bit as good if not better and seems actually to be improving as a player and was obviously amenable to a long-term

extension which seems to be at quite a reasonable rate from Atlanta's perspective. So again, like war-wise or projections-wise or looking long-term at a player who is as good now and in theory could continue to be good for longer than Freeman, who is 32 and a half or so, you certainly see the rationale. But even if you see the rationale, it's just tough to say goodbye for Braves fans to Freddie Freeman. Yeah. And, you know, particularly when they made a point of holding on to him throughout their entire rebuilds, you know, they could have they could have netted, I would imagine, very meaningful and high profile prospects. But they held on to Freeman, I think, in part so that when the rest of the roster was ready to coalesce,

like they could just get going, right? They didn't have to worry about replacing his war production. It was just going to be there because they had held on to him. And I think that we have at various times applauded them doing that because it, you know, it's not unusual for a team to be like right on the precipice and you look around and you're like gee it sure would be nice to have a but we just traded that guy away and so i think that you know we can appreciate that decision while still acknowledging that this is is really challenging i mean i think that when you look at someone like olsen it's not as if there isn't some connection there he's a hometown guy right i think that he'll be someone who atlanta fans can get really excited about he is a superlative player so i don't think that it is

in the same as you said it's not in the same bucket as trading away you know a marquee player a franchise icon and then not doing anything to to shore up the position or commit to the roster long term right we can't the mookie bets trade right you know the red socks returned to contention fairly quickly but at least for that season they were pretty much punting you know and and they're the red socks and there's no reason why they have to operate that way and so even if you say well this guy plus that guy long term, and we only had him under team control for one more year, they were within striking distance playoff wise, and he meant so much to that team, and they weren't replacing him with someone who was very comparable in terms of performance, which is the case here. So yeah, it's not in that bucket.

Right. And so I think we can differentiate that. But I also think that an Atlanta fan would be perfectly justified in saying in the short term, the projections aren't that different between these two guys. And I feel feelings about Freddie Freeman. And so I wish that we could have gotten that done. And, you know,

if we had done that, you know, I, I know that Dan came down on the side of saying like long-term, the difference in production between Freeman and Olsen makes this package of, of prospects worth trading in order to net Olsen. Obviously that's going to come down to how you feel. The financial savings, not that a fan has to care about that necessarily.

Yeah. That part, I don't think fans should have to care about, but I, you know, I think that, you know, you can, Dan came down on the side of this is, this is worth it for Atlanta long-term. This puts them in a better position to win both, you know, it keeps them in sort of a similar position to win short-term and puts them in a better position to win long-term. And I think that if you're a fan and that's compelling to you, that's perfectly reasonable. And if you're a fan and you'd say, but I love Freddie Freeman, that's perfectly reasonable too. I don't think that this, like this move doesn't strike me as malfeasance, right. Or an abdication of the desire to win in the division. And I don't think that we can sort of cast it in those terms, but I,

I think that fans are, are perfectly within their rights to prioritize sentimentality differently than a front office might. And that doesn't make them indifferent to the difficulties of constructing a good roster. And we like these prospects, but maybe you're an Atlanta fan and you're like, I don't think Pache is ever going to hit. Langoliers is whatever. These other guys are far away.

It's a steal. I think there are a lot of reasonable interpretations of this. And it's going to be really so very weird to see Freddie Freeman in Not A Brace. Yeah, it is. So I don't know. I think we can experience all of those things simultaneously. And I think that it won't take very long for Matt Olsen to grow into the hometown guy everyone's excited to have back but

in this moment it's it it lends itself to a lot of different feelings so yeah I do wish I mean all else being equal I think it's nice and fun and heartwarming when you can have a player spend his whole career with a franchise and have that kind of relationship with the fan base obviously it's not a good thing if it's because of the reserve clause and they don't have a choice and they just have to stay right but if they do decide to stay if it turns out that it's advantageous to them to stay and the franchise wants to keep them around then that's great when you can get the chipper jones who spends his whole career there then that's wonderful but obviously that's the exception rather than the rule. And you can look at the teammates of Chipper on those great Braves dynasty teams and really almost all of them, all the others did not spend their whole careers in that uniform. So it happens. But it seemed like Freeman might be one of those guys. But, you know, you're one of those guys until you're not and something changes. changes so in this case like it didn't seem like there was any pressing reason to move on from him

and i don't know at what point they decided to and i don't know when they decided on this olsen deal like did they work out the olsen trade and the extension within like a few days of the lockout ending or did they work out the trade in principle and then they talked to olsen about it i'd be interested in hearing the tick tock of how that happened happened because it's a lot to go down in a short span of time. But we'll talk about Freeman again when he signs somewhere. But Olsen, if you're an Atlanta fan wondering what you're getting in Olsen, his last season was kind of incredible. What he was able to do, just slashing his strikeout rate almost in half compared to the shortened 2020 season but significantly even compared to his previous seasons and not losing any power

whatsoever and being a 39 homer guy with a 16.8 strikeout rate which in this era is great and way better than average so it just doesn't happen very often that you can make much more contact and still preserve your power, if not improve your power. And now for him to get out of that ballpark, a pitcher's park, and go to Atlanta and bring his great defense, which is probably even better than Freeman's, which was also good. He doesn't have quite as long a track record of being great as Freeman does. He hasn't been around as long, set and his age so i think that really has to make you feel a lot better about something that you would have felt terrible about yeah under almost any other circumstances yeah and actually to highlight the rarity of a move like this freeman departure happening i asked frequent stat blast consultant ryan nelson to run some

numbers this is not a full stat blast but I asked him basically to look for any kind of comps of a player like Freeman leaving a team after it won a world series or even just won a pennant and it's an extremely short list of times that that has happened so like times when a player who had been with that franchise for 10 plus years and for his whole career left after a productive season. So we set the bar even lower than where Freeman was, just like a three and a half war season and left after a pennant winning season. I know that's a lot of qualifiers, but you would think that a team that has a good player

who has meant a lot to that franchise and just either won a World Series or at least made one would have money to spend and reason to bring that player back. So very, very rarely does that type of player depart. The only comps we could really come up with was 1926 Rogers Hornsby, who left to go to the Giants. And Hornsby was coming up a down year for him, although still a productive year. And he left the Cardinals where he had spent his whole career to go to the Giants. But Hornsby was just a jack wagon in general. And so I think that explains that there was like a contract dispute and they didn't really want him to stay because he was prone to betting on the ponies, as they say. and so they were kind of happy

to have him leave. The only other comp, another player who left the Cardinals, Albert Pujols. So if you're a Braves fan, I guess you could look at the Pujols departure as kind of a comp to this and say, well, in retrospect, that worked out, right? I mean, it was tough at the time for Cardinals fans to lose him, but in that case, they were blown away by the Angels' offer, which you can't really say in this case. It doesn't seem like, you know, the Angels are out there offering Freddie Freeman 10 years necessarily. Pujols declined. Not that was necessarily predictable, but that's a case where you can look and say, well, sometimes it's tough in the moment, but it works out in the long run. And then maybe you can bring him back for a farewell tour when he's 40 something, which I know has actually been discussed this week. That's that decision. Maybe we can talk a little bit about the twins and the reds. Maybe the reds will lead us into the twins and figuring

out what they're doing these days what are they doing what are they doing no but what are the reds doing i guess we know what the reds are doing they're tearing down ben they're saying sure are how can we spend as few dollars as we possibly can that seems to be the main goal here how did uh nick Kroll put it? Bringing payroll in line with resources or something, which probably distorts the reality of the situation as well as putting it in a very unappetizing form. I think he said something else about, you know, sustainability when he was justifying these trades. Always love to hear that. But prior to the lockout, the Reds let Wade Miley leave on waivers and save some cash there. And then Tucker Barnhart went away.

That saved some money, too. Now, this week, they have traded Sonny Gray to the Twins for prospects or a prospect, right? The Twins' top draft pick last year. Chase Petty. Yeah, that saves them another 10 million yep and then they make a deal with mr depoto and the mariners and this is kind of a big one so jesse winker and eugenio suarez from the reds to the mariners for jake fraley justin dunn and pitching prospect brandon williamson which nets the Reds another $40 million or so.

So I think they have slashed or are on pace to slash something like $70 million from their payroll, I believe. And that seems to be the main goal here. Now, I mentioned earlier whether there's a distinction to draw between the A's and the Reds. And I'm not sure because they were in similar situations last year. The A's won 86 games. The Reds won 83 games. Maybe they both would have made the playoffs under expanded 12-playoff format. I know that the Reds would have.

And I believe looking at Dan Szymborski's projections, theoretical projections in a 12-playoff team system before that was made official, he had them with similar playoff odds. I think he had the A's at like 35% and the Reds at 25% to make the playoffs. So really, I mean, the A's won a few more games and may have even had better playoff chances if they had kept their team intact. With them, maybe it's partly just that we're used to it. I mean, the A's have always operated this way. They are always extremely stingy and trying to find ways around that. Whereas with the Reds, you could give them credit for investing a few years ago, and you could say that they had terrible timing in that they made some investments and they got better just in time for the pandemic to hit and all they had to show for it was

squeaking into a playoff spot in the 60 game season not winning a game right and then not being able to capitalize on being better with increased attendance because no one was going to games so i sympathize to some extent about the timing of the way that worked out, but it still just sucks that they are, I mean, they're getting talent back, right? At least in some of these moves, but it's also talent that's like further away and not nearly as major league ready as what Oakland's's getting back so maybe that's the distinction that it seems like the a's are you know they've never really torn down or or done a full tank style rebuild i mean they are always kind of shuffling their roster but they haven't had sustained periods of being terrible and it seems like they're angling to be good again sometime soon whereas with the reds

who knows when they might be good again. Yeah, I think too, there's, I don't know if this is a fair, like mental distinction to draw, because it isn't that different to say, not that this is a strict policy, but to operate such that you're like, once guys hit arbitration, we're keen to move them versus we can't, you know, we're going to pass Wade Miley through waivers to avoid paying not only for his deal, but for the buyout, meaning that we'll get nothing in return, right? Like there's just, I don't know that those are actually philosophically that different from one another, but for some reason I am treating them as philosophically different. And I don't know that that is credit that I should be giving to the A's in this case.

I think part of it, you're right to say, is the sense that the Central is so winnable, and there were good players on this roster to go win a very winnable division. I think the road is harder and longer in the West, which isn't to say that it's impossible because we've seen Oakland be a postseason team pretty recently, right? And so it's not as if they can't do it, but they do have sort of more powerhouse teams in their division or at least teams

that will be thorny for them to deal with, even if they aren't all as good as as Houston. So I think that factors into our analysis here. And I think you're right, that something about it shifting from being sort of a consistent posture to such a dramatic sort of about face in terms of your commitment to being competitive is is informing part of why i'm reacting this way but it sure is you know it sure is cheap yeah right like their approach is just real real cheap like there's no way to describe it other than that like it does seem quite clear that the primary motivation for these moves is to save money. And it doesn't mean that they haven't gotten some players back

who are intriguing in their own way, but you're right to say that a lot of them are further away than some of the guys who went to Oakland. And I think it's not that Pache isn't a divisive prospect, but Chase Putty's a really divisive prospect. So it's not like they have a slam dunk there. We really like Brandon Williamson. If you go check out Jay Jaffe's write-up of this deal,

you get to see what Brandon Williamson looked like on Sunday because he threw on a Mariner's backfield the day before he was traded, and Eric got video of it. We've been high on him. I know BA likes him a lot too, but they literally have Sonny Gray. They seem like they're literally going to get rid of Luis Castillo. I don't love it for them. It is just such an extreme version of penny pinching. I think as we said several times over the course of the lockout, you shouldn't just have like a given god given right to own a baseball

team like if this is how you're going to conduct yourself maybe the league would be better off if you sold yeah because the mariners trade especially that seems like a salary dump i mean winker is a really good player he's a really good player got 20 feet of neck and a bunch of more feet of home runs and a lot of on base ability and that seems like a lot of on-base ability. And that seems like partly, well, we'll just get rid of Suarez's contract. And Suarez has had a couple down seasons for sure and was asked to play out of position as a lot of Reds have been.

And I know he bounced back late last year. He had a great September. So maybe the Mariners are getting a great full season bounce back candidate here. But because he had some money coming to him, you know, more than his very recent performance might have justified, I suppose. But, you know, 11 point something million for the next few years, each of the next few years, and then a team option. I mean, that might end up being being quite reasonable depending on if he can get back to being a two to three win player again which wouldn't be surprising but to get Winker and Suarez and not have to give up really any very important players at least presently that seems like a coup for Mr. DiPoto he was ready to transact and indeed he did. And that seems like it's a big boon to Seattle's lineup. Yeah. Now, the fact that they seem to be kind of done on the position player

side, I don't know that I love that. I could have done with more. We'll see if they manage to do more. DePoto yesterday said that they're pretty set when it comes to the lineup although i'm curious how guys like you know suzuki and conforto's markets might develop i can kind of see how with suarez on board and winker like maybe you're you're kind of taking yourself out of the bryant sweepstakes but wouldn't hate more outfield reinforcement just why not i know someone's coming but also kyle lewis isn't gonna be ready for opening day. So go get another guy, I say. But that they will shift some of their attention to the starting pitcher market. Jerry, you couldn't have gotten Luis Castillo?

I hear the Reds are tearing down. Well, we talked last time about the fact that this new CBA didn't really make any meaningful changes to address what we are not calling tanking but are potentially calling banking or nutting or possibly both the reds are making a run at owning the term nutting even as much as mr nutting himself so many regrets i think i have regret so we are seeing two teams do just what we talked about last time, which is not tanking in terms of getting bad in order to get better draft picks. You know, maybe you could say that the A's are at least doing this with an eye toward contending again sometime soon within their ownership imposed payroll limits. Whereas with the Reds, it mainly seems to be about banking those dollars that they're going to get regardless of whether they win or not so that's unfortunate and i feel sorry for reds fans i feel sorry for joey vato who just got a tiny little taste of contention again there and now

either has to stick around with a loser or leave and he's certainly someone in that freeman camp of you kind of hope that he would spend his whole career there but you also hope that they would put a contending team around him so one move the reds made was to trade sunny gray to the twins and maybe that can be our segue to the twins here now that move made plenty of sense because the twins need pitching they need pitching as much as any Potentially contending team needs Pitching even with Sunny Gray I think they are

21st on the fan graphs depth chart When it comes to projected value from starting Pitchers but getting gray Over whatever replacement or sub Replacement level pitcher that they would have had in that Rotation instead that's a significant Upgrade and if you're just giving up A wild card who's not going to be ready For years under the best. And if you're just giving up a wild card who's

not going to be ready for years under the best of circumstances, and you're a team that at least position player-wise is sort of set up to win now, that makes a ton of sense. What I think was maybe more confounding on both sides potentially is the subsequent trade that the Twins made with the Yankees. And in this deal, the Twins traded Josh Donaldson and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, whom they had acquired in yet another trade with the Rangers for Mitch Garver. And they also traded backup catcher Ben Rortvedt, and they got back Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela. So none of these trades netted them more pitching. This was shuffling around position players.

They traded Mitch Garver, who has been somewhat injury prone and is past 30 already, but he did bounce back with a pretty good year last year. back with a pretty good year last year. They have swapped him now for Gary Sanchez, and they acquired Isaiah Kainer-Falefa only to deal him away in exchange for Gio Urshela, who replaces Josh Donaldson. So they are, at least for the moment, left without an obvious shortstop candidate, which is why a lot of people have said well maybe this is setting up something else right maybe trevor story signs with the twins or someone of that nature because otherwise it looks weird like otherwise it's really weird yeah it's trimming salary and leaving another new hole there and not addressing the pitching deficit so we've talked before about

how it seems like some of their moves suggest that they're trying to win now and others suggest that they're not. And you get why they would maybe deal Jose Barrios if they got great prospects back. But how does that work with extending Buxton and other moves that they've made or not made? So it seems like they're kind of caught in between and maybe there is going to be a big signing that happens here. There's not a lot of impact pitching left on the market here. So I don't know how they can turn that rotation into not even a strength, but maybe just par for the course. people on both the Yankees and Twins fan bases sides because Yankees fans I mean Gary Sanchez seems like kind of your classic change of scenery candidate in that a lot of people were just sort of sick of watching him attempt to catch and maybe the fact that he really raised expectations with how he hit when he first came up and he has continued to be a productive hitter for a catcher but has also been an exploitable and inconsistent one and a lot of people love urshela for what he did

and stepping in in that injury plagued season and doing so well and then it turns out that he's able to hit as well as play pretty good defense or at least good looking defense so donaldson you know he's under team control for a couple more years with what 50 million coming to him and so partly this was about the twins getting out from under that maybe but he's also still a productive player when he's healthy which is a big caveat in Josh Donaldson's cases so a lot of moving parts here and maybe there are subsequent moves to come on both sides that will make the grand plan more clear maybe maybe they will i mean this makes me think that they feel confident around story on the twin side i'm just realizing how the yankees shortstop position is currently ranked 20th in

our depth chart rankings because of isaiah connorfa. And so even though that's better than the 30th the Rangers were at last year, I'm still going to hear about this, aren't I, Ben? I'm still going to hear about it. Probably going to hear about it in positional power rankings. Don't worry. It's fine. I don't know. It's just very – it feels like the kind of thing that we can't judge until it's complete because otherwise a lot of this isn't –

it's not that it's nonsensical. It just doesn't really help very much. You know, it helps some. I mean, I think that there are aspects of this that are to each of the team's benefit. I'm not crazy about Isaiah Kainer-Falefa, at least as a bat, but I think that given what we've seen at shortstop

from the Yankees over the last, you know the last two years, I get the appeal there. I think that it's good for Gary to get a shot in another place with a catching coach where he might jive well. Yeah, although the catching coach who kind of fixed Mitch Garver is now on the Yankees. They poached that catching coach, but who knows? Maybe a different catching coach. Yeah, maybe that'll help. I mean, I think that I just, you have a guy like him with a career like he's had, and it can be a relief for everyone when he gets an opportunity in a different place and can just get a fresh start without the pressure of his existing situation. And, you know,

I don't want to imply that Gary can't like deal with the bright lights of New York. Like that always, that argument always feels kind of icky to me. But I think that there's something to be said for starting over in a new spot. So hopefully that works out well for him. But yeah, I don't know. Like, it's just weird. It's just a weird move absent other moves. So I guess I will hold off on saying that it is an objectively weird move until, I don't

know, Trevor Story signs somewhere else, I guess. But it does strike me as pretty strange, at least on the Twins part. So I don't know. Yeah. I mean, Story saves you some runs on defense. So if you can't go get a good top of the market pitcher at this point, then maybe getting a great defensive shortstop is one way to equalize things. Although that is what Keiner falafel was he has a great defensive shortstop but doesn't contribute so much offensively so i don't know maybe there's more to unlock with him or maybe the yankees make some other splash i mean i think you know carlos crea has been a long shot all along it seems like there's more smoke with him returning to houston which always sort of made sense on paper.

I don't know what happens there. Someone said that on this podcast a couple of times. We won't dwell on who. We'll just say that she's very smart. Yankees fans will probably be disappointed if they end up with Isaiah Kainer-Fleifa opening day starting shortstop because, well, they always want to go get the biggest and best guy in the market, right? And that is not what Kainer Falefa is. And typically the Yankees have not gone like full defense, you know, light bat, great glove guy.

Maybe they can get more out of his bat, but this would be a bit of a change certainly from their recent shortstops, which were more in the other direction. Kainer Falefa is more like what Andrelton Simmons was supposed to be for the Twins and then maybe wasn't really anymore. And now he's gone to the Cubs. So we'll see. Obviously, he has a lot of positional versatility and he could end up in some sort of multi-position role if there is another move to be made.

But Donaldson, another big hitter if he's in the lineup and another injury risk in that lineup so you look at a lineup with Judge and Stanton and LeMahieu and Donaldson and all of these guys and even if you're punting offense at catcher a little bit and maybe shortstop too it's still a pretty strong lineup but how often are those guys going to be healthy and in the lineup at the same time and that's putting aside the more drama driven gossipy storyline about how is josh allison going to get along with garrett cole who had exchanges with him last year about spider tack and they were going back and forth i feel like that sort of thing is always overblown because when the players are on the same side, they almost always make up and bury the hatchet. And it's like, well, you were the enemy, you know, you were the guy I was trying to hit against at that time. And so it annoyed me that maybe you were using some sticky stuff and now we're on the same side. So use whatever you want because it benefits me.

whatever you want, because it benefits me. So I feel like that will probably be fine. Although Donaldson, maybe not the easiest guy to get along with in general, it seems, but I would imagine that that will not be a big rift in the clubhouse. And you got another big bat in that lineup, if healthy. And you also have a new beef boy, although a different type of beef boy, because I don't know whether you've seen ben wortvet the yankees new backup catcher presumably he is not tall vertically but he is extremely built and has probably the highest like forearm slash bicep to height ratio that i have possibly ever seen. And if you haven't seen a picture of Ben Roetvedt's forearms and just arms in general, I'd encourage you all to look at one and I will link you to one as I just linked you, Meg, to an article that was published by MLB.com last June,

headline, Twins Rookies Muscles, quote, touched by God. So he is only 5'10", listed at 5'10", and I don't know whether to believe that, but his arms are extremely large. It looks like he has huge forearms and then like half a full forearm on top of. He's got like hams on his shoulders. He's got like a whole bit of, he's got like a whole ham. He's got like a forearm and a half. It's like a full forearm on top Of a regular looking forearm It looks anatomically incorrect

Almost it looks like The comic book artist Rob Liefeld Who's always mocked For drawing like too many muscles That kind of looks like what Ben Rortfeld is like and ironically It doesn't seem like he has all that much power Or at least he hasn't unlocked it yet. But he's a good framer. And I guess forearms are pretty

important for framing. You need that forearm strength not to have your arms move. So get used to another beef boy who is not as tall, but can certainly stack up forearm to forearm. certainly stack up forearm to forearm. I feel like I need to do a better job describing the beef boy. Maybe I need to clarify for myself, what does a beef boy mean in my heart? What do I think of as a beef boy? Because last year I did lump, I lumped, for instance, Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo in with the Beef Boys. I think that there are a couple of different sorts of Beef Boys. They exist on a Beef Boy continuum that folds around on one side to the Barrelman continuum. There's that part of the Beef Boy spectrum that is more in the Vogel back range. I think that this is like, have we ever seen him and Tyler O'Neill in the same place? Are they doing Spider-Man memes?

When you have guys who are not statuesque, but are carrying around what seem like very heavy arms, that is a particular kind of beef boy. And then there are the towering beef boys. And that's where you have your judges and your stantons and your... We're also quite muscular in some cases, but yes. Right. I mean, like, certainly muscular. And because of the body issue, we know just how muscular when it comes to stanton at the very least.

Right. But that is a particular within the if we are presenting a beef boy taxonomy, that is a discrete sub subtype of beef boy relative to the Tyler O'Neill beef boy, where you are. You're all arm or mostly arm. You know, you're you're you're very much of your arms. And then there are the the towering beef boys and then there are the they are not squat in a in a real way because they are baseball players and so even when they are not tall they tend to tower over me but then there are the the sort of more um compact beef boys and that would would be like your Luke Voits and your Anthony Rizzo's. You know, they are of their own kind.

So it's important to specify these things to have a beef boy taxonomy that is adequately explained. So yes. Yeah. I mean, like these are the pieces that you all lose because of how busy I am editing.

So we can be grateful that i have a podcast to you know express my views on the different kinds of beef boys so all right well just a few more major moves we can name check before we close here we mentioned the match trading for chris bassett and that gives them currently the best projected rotation according to the Fangrass depth charts. So you have Bassett basically as your fifth starter now. I don't know where he slots in, but you have Jacob de Crom at the top. You have Max Scherzer. You have Bassett. You have Tywon Walker. You have Carlos Carrasco. Plenty of question marks with some of those guys. Obviously, you worry about Jacob deGrom and the injury risk there, and Max Scherzer is going to turn 38, and Carlos Carrasco has certainly been unavailable at times, too. potentials for pitfalls and for things to fall apart it is after all the mets that we are talking about here but on paper currently they have the highest projected starting pitcher war and bassett

goes a long way i think toward ensuring that they have the depth to survive if some of the top guys were to miss time and bassett of course missed time himself last year, and he had that really scary-looking head injury where he was hit by the national notoriety that he would have because he was in Oakland. So that's a big get for them. And they also signed Adam out of Eno. And it basically seems like Steve Cohen is willing to just break right through the new tax tier that was implemented seemingly almost specifically to stop Steve Cohen from spending. So if you're a Mets fan, you can certainly have mixed feelings about Cohen in many respects, but you probably have to be pretty happy about the investments he's making in the major league roster right now.

Yeah, I think that you do. I think that, I don't know that we have to hand it to him, but I mean, like the competitive balance tax doesn't put you in jail. It just, you know, they just send you a bill. Other things that he has done could potentially. Who could say? But it doesn't come with a restriction of one's freedom. It just means that they're going to say, hey, you got to write us a check in January. And so I think that there's something about being wealthy enough to say like, yeah, tax me.

That has to be fairly irritating. Yeah, it's like F you money, as they say. Right, to some of the other owners. But I'm glad to see him looking at it and saying, okay, fine. Yeah, it's unfortunate that you have to choose between like Bob Castellini and Steve Cohen. It's like either you have someone who is not willing to invest in the payroll or you have someone who is but like also has done insider trading and stuff. So it's either or, I guess, when you're talking about billionaires or multi-multi-millionaires or multi-multi-billionaires. But I guess if you have to pick one, you want the one who spends.

And it certainly seems like the Mets are doing that. And I guess in the same vein, the Blue Jays signed Yusei Kikuchi to round out their rotation, which also looks quite strong. And there's the question of are they getting early season Yusei Kikuchi, all-star Yusei Kikuchi? Are they getting late season Yusei Kikuchi who kind of fell apart? But you look at that rotation and it's Jose Brios, it's Kevin Gossman, it's Hyunjin Ryu, it's Kikuchi, it's Alec Manoa. And then you have like Nate Pearson and Stripling around as sixth and seventh starters. I mean, that is a pretty strong unit too.

And you think of all the offense that they already have i mean there's a lot to like about that team they barely missed the playoffs last year they had the talent and the underlying performance of a playoff team even in a 10 team playoff system and so now like they should have a starter going every day who gives that lineup a good chance to win yeah and we should probably take a moment here to reflect upon Kikuchi, whose contract situation was so strange. Like we, when we did our top 50 free agents,

you know, our listeners might recall that like, you know, we pull on a bunch of guys. We crowdsource a bunch of players, far more than we ever put on the top 50 to get a sense of what the crowd thinks a player will receive and we didn't even pull on kikuchi because we were so convinced that he would exercise his player option given the back half of the season that he had and we wondered like is he going to end up going back

to japan he had turned down 13 million dollars and you know he ends up doing relatively well for himself and securing a longer term deal. And so like good for him, right? You know, the average annual value is only slightly less than the player option. And he now has a guaranteed contract through 2024. So yeah. And also in that vein, Carlos Rodon signed with the Giants. That was like before the deluge of other moves for two years and 44 million and he's someone who didn't get a qualifying offer from the white socks which that was a weird choice maybe they want that one back now but they do but at the time that made you wonder what is his market going to be like because he's someone who's had all sorts of injury issues including last year

and he came back and he was hampered by the injury and he wasn't able to go deep into games. And they were really just using kid gloves to try to get him through that season and the playoffs. And so given that you have to think that the White Sox know as much about the state of his arm as anyone else, if not more so, the fact that they were not interested in bringing him back and not even interested in extending the qualifying offer, which makes you think either that they thought that there wouldn't be a market out there or that they just didn't want him back on those terms under any circumstances and thought he might accept it. Obviously, the Giants feel a bit more sanguine about his health and his prospects. And

I guess you'd have to feel good about him going to That team that at least recently Has managed to get more out of Pitchers like Wood and Discofani and Gossman And even Cueto last year and on And on so if there's any Team that maybe could Keep him healthy and keep him pitching at that

Level maybe it's the Giants and their Brian Bannister brain trust but They have kind of rebuilt their rotation a tad too because they lost gossman and they still have web at the top there and they brought back discafani and wood and then they brought in alex cobb and so you're counting on cobb and rodan to stay healthy they also brought in carlos martinez so there are a bunch of arms there that you just kind of hope that they can maximize again and keep in the rotation because a big part of their success last year was the fact that they didn't have a ton of rotation depth, but they barely had to use any of it because their top guys were just almost always available. And that's tough to sustain, but gives them more margin for error the more players that they can bring on. Yeah.

And gosh, I wonder, you know, I kind of forgot about Rodan. I kind of forgot that that happened, Ben, because it happened on Friday. That was many weeks ago. Yeah. You have to wonder, like him going early like he did is interesting in terms of the rest of the market. Like I wonder if Kikuchi's contract benefited a little bit from him having gone early. But yeah, I think that it's a good fit of team to player. You're right that the sort of injury bugaboo or potential for it still lingers. But I don't know, maybe when you work for a team, you become hardened against that possibility. You're just like, you could all break at any time so yeah right and in other news involving lefty starting pitchers signing in the nl west who didn't get qualifying offers clayton kershaw yeah with the dodgers that happened too and that felt like a fait accompli and it

seemed like well he was always going to go back there but hey freddie freeman didn't go back to the braves so you never know and there was some talk about Clayton Kershaw going to the Rangers and being closer to home and he didn't get a qualifying offer reportedly the Dodgers seemingly almost did him a courtesy of not extending one so as not to make him make a decision at the time because he wasn't sure how his arm would feel and what he would want to do and he ended up signing for i guess a little less than the qualifying offer would have been anyway one year and 17 million with some incentives that could bring it up a bit more but i just want to see clayton kershaw in a dodgers uniform hopefully forever but as long as possible and no one knows how many innings he will be available

to pitch but whenever he has been able to pitch even the the post-peak decline phase, Kershaw has been extremely effective. So long may he continue to pitch and continue to year and Los Angeles will want to employ him as long as he's able to turn in seasons even like 2021 where he had you know injury stuff and couldn't pitch for the whole year but was still good when he did and you know I imagine he'll get to a point where he I wonder if he will just get to a point where he would prefer to be done rather than switch teams like if he just stays a Dodger long enough like i think he strikes me as the the kind of person who has an appreciation for what that means to be with one franchise your entire career and it's not like he you know is wanting for money he's made plenty of money in his career so he might be one of those

guys and this is particularly rare for pitchers who's in a position to decide when he goes out and what the circumstances of that will be. The relationship he seems to have with that organization suggests that they will be amenable to that within reason. That's pretty cool. We don't always get that. We have also seen some National League teams prepare for life in the Universal DH era. Oh, right. Nelson Cruz. Yeah. Nelson Cruz signed with the Nationals and Andrew McCutcheon signed with the Brewers. I don't know how much he'll be DHing and how much he'll be playing outfield, but he can still crush lefties. And yeah, Cruz, 42 years young, still out there raking. And I know that he had some of his rates fall off a bit when he was with the Rays after the trade last year. But I think the underlying metrics were still pretty strong.

It seems like he can still hit. And it's just yet another one-year deal for him. He just goes year to year. And he just keeps finding suitors and probably more suitors than there would have been if not for the universal DH. And so the Nationals may be a somewhat surprising choice, but not surprising in the second half of the season like when he had no lineup protection for long stretches i mean he was walking like a quarter of the time and we could have seen that happen all season which would have been fun in some ways but also like even if he's just as productive walking constantly i don't want to see the bat taken out of his hands because he also really rakes and can hit the ball far and hard too. So you put

Cruz behind him. Pitchers have a little more reason to throw Juan Soto a hittable pitch from time to time. So that's nice. Yeah. I think that we will, you know, Cruz has a reputation as a really great clubhouse guy and not that, you know, I don't want to suggest that Juan Soto needs hitting tips because that's absurd. But he does seem like someone who will enjoy Cruz's clubhouse presence because everyone does seemingly. And so I feel like that's a nice bit of business there. I imagine that assuming he doesn't get hit with the I'm finally old stick that he will be on a playoff team come the second half. But in the meantime, we can watch him sort of keep slugging and see, as you said, what Soto can do with actual lineup protection.

And then we'll kind of go from there. So it's weird. I find it very strange that of all the NL clubs that no one was going to do better with arguably the best DH option in the field. But I don't know. Seems fine. Sure. Nelson Cruz. Why not? Yeah, I guess I misspoke. He is not yet 42. He does not turn 42 until July 1st. I don't want to make you any older than you actually are, Mr. Cruz. He doesn't seem self-conscious about it. I think it's fine. Yeah.

No, he doesn't hit like a 41 or 42 year old, so no need to be. But yes, I guess there might be some teams that felt like, well, we want to keep some flexibility in the DH spot. We've certainly seen a lot of teams use that spot as kind of a catch-all for players who were heard or don't have an assigned position and you want to spread plate appearances around but when you can get nelson cruz someone who at least in the recent past and not so recent past you can count on for a 130 or better wrc plus generally you're pretty okay penciling that player in day after day so all right well there was only one minor move i

wanted to mention other than williams course, going to the Marlins. Sure. And don't have a whole lot to say about that one. It's a minor league deal. Last time we talked about Williams, we were expressing some disapproval for him sucker punching someone essentially in the winter leagues. No. And I don't know if that had any effect on his market. But if you're someone who enjoys watching William Tassadio play, as I am, then hopefully the Marlins could be a good place for him to do that and maybe do that more regularly than he was able to do with the Twins. So that's nice. The only other thing was Kurt Suzuki resigning with the Angels. Sure.

Minor move. Backup catcher move here. Not really worth mentioning except for the fact That I am a prolific watcher Of the Angels and this means that I will Have to see more Kurt Suzuki On my screen in 2022 Not thrilled about that And as someone who watches

The Angels all the time because of Otani And because of Trout hopefully I am someone who wants to See a competitive team around them and potentially even for those guys to make the playoffs. That would be nice. And so it's been sort of deflating to watch them not do anything as all these other teams were doing things. Now, they weren't trading away any of their good players, so I guess you take what you can get, but they weren't really adding to their roster and they haven't added a whole lot to it this offseason.

They added Noah Sindergaard, who is promising and talented, but hardly the 150 or 200 inning guy that they have been lacking for so long. They've been lacking 100 inning guy in some seasons, so they don't have a ton more rotation certainty. don't have a ton more rotation certainty and to bring back Kurt Suzuki that just seems like a low imagination move or just like a low ceiling move sort of like he's 38 at this point he seems pretty washed just watching him last year like he didn't hit and I know he had hit for a few seasons before that he actually had sort of a late career offensive renaissance, but I don't know that I buy that that's still going to happen. Maybe he had some bad Babbitt luck last year, but he's not a hitter at this point in his career, I don't think. And he is not a framer. He is reliably one of the worst framers, which I take personally sort of because he was often the personal catcher of Shohei Otani. I take personally sort of because he was often the personal catcher of Shohei Otani. The Angels have a much better receiver in Max Stassi. And I hope that those two work together more often this year because I just want to see Otani have the best performance that he can. And even if he vibes well with Suzuki on a personal level in some way, I think it would be helpful for him to work with Stassi more.

So again, like it's a backup catcher move move it doesn't make all that much difference probably but it just seems like a continuation of the angels like having enough to give you hope because as long as they have trout and otani and hopefully a healthy rendon they certainly have enough to contend in theory but then not making the the move or not making the right move that pushes them over the hump. And you just, you shouldn't have to do that much to get over the hump when you start with that duo or that trio. So I'm hoping they can defy recent history somehow, but I'm not super optimistic based on their recent activity. So if they sign Karskareya or Trevor Story or someone at this point like

there are still maybe moves that can be made but they're running out of options to make a major difference yeah i think that you're right that like in a vacuum this is like whatever who even cares but within the the sort of world where we would like to see a very competitive and robust angels team propel players that we like a lot to the postseason and spare you from having to watch like really very bad framing yeah you know this doesn't clear either of those bars so that's i don't know how long i'll have to watch framing at all so let me go out on a high note here let me watch maybe this frame yeah maybe this will turn you into a rope ozone joker.

Maybe this will be what pushes you over the edge. But yes, it does seem like the window they have to really meaningfully improve the roster is rapidly closing if it hasn't already. And they don't exactly have any really terrific farm system depth to trade from to go secure say louise castillo who is probably very available because of what the reds have done so they just seem like the the real tool they had to improve themselves this off season was to spend and that spending needed to come both at a greater volume and much earlier in the calendar for it to make a difference because you know they're not in they're not in the market for carlos correa they don't really like that's not the most pressing need although you know shortstop isn't exactly like an area of strength so i don't know man like it's

it's just sort of a bummer you want there to be more for our very favorite our very favorites and we're not maybe gonna get it can i can i admit to something? Sure. It's not that I forgot that Anthony Rendon exists, but I maybe forgot that Anthony Rendon exists. So yeah, like if Anthony Rendon is healthy, like that could be pretty great. Yes, one of the very best players in baseball very recently. Yeah. Gosh, it would be, I mean, it won't happen, but we have the Angels as having like the fourth worst projection for shortstop. They are worse off in that department than both the Orioles and the D-backs, which isn't like a stack you want to be behind.

So that would be sure cool if they swooped in at the last minute, but that's not going to happen. They're not going to do that. Artie Moreno didn't want to raise the CBT thresholds at all. He's not spending money. Yeah, doesn't want to pay minor leaguers either. So, yeah. All right. Well, that's all i got apologies to everyone whose uh team's moves we did not discuss but again meg and

the fangraphs staff have been very diligent in covering even the most minor of moves so just go to fangraphs and look at the free agent signing and trade tags, and you can find a whole long litany of posts there that cover every conceivable thing that has happened. And I, the managing editor of Fangraphs, might even be preparing a big summary post that we will update as more signings come so that if you are flummoxed by the blog roll, you don't have to worry about that.

But yeah, all of our writers have done a really tremendous job. As always, John Taylor has done a fantastic job helping to bear the editorial load so it has been quite busy we really appreciate everyone coming and hanging out with us at the site it's nice to be able to chat with you all about things that aren't the cbt even though as you said the cbt it is the river that runs through every signing but it is nice to get to contemplate what some of these teams are going to look like with fun free agents on their rosters who weren't there when various days began. And I will probably remember most of them by July, just in time for some of them to get traded. All right. Well, we will end this episode and start the production process, hopefully before many more moves are made, although we will see. the production process, hopefully before many more moves are made, although we will see.

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