Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 1893: Flame Inflation

Episode Date: August 25, 2022

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the inflation of flames for fast pitches on baseball broadcasts, Oneil Cruz’s record-setting hard hit and the limitations of tools, Ben’s review of a trip to Yankee Stadium and Red Sox pitcher Josh Winckowski’s review of Wrigley Field compared to Fenway Park, the potential impact of a forthcoming […]

Might as well take my TV Yeah, I don't really care what happens to me People talk about fun, that's already there I spotted coming along, moving around When I go to the flames, will you be there? Hello and welcome to episode 1893 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from FanCrafts presented by our Patreon supporters. I'm Ben Lindberg of The Ringer, joined by Meg Rowley of FanCrafts. Hello, Meg. Hello.

I know it's not the most pressing issue facing Major League Baseball or the world, but I think we need to do something about the flames for 95 mile per hour pitches on baseball broadcasts because we're still getting flames, you know, the little gif-ish kind of animation when someone throws a 95 mile per hour pitch and you'd see the little flames up top to just denote that this is a fast pitch. And these days, it seems like more often than not, when I see 95 and I see the flames, I think, oh, that was sort of a slow pitch because I was watching Shohei Otani's last start and he was somewhat diminished. He was pitching with some sort of stomach bug.

So he was not his usual self. But when he would throw 95 and he'd get flames for that, I think, well, this is not flame worthy. This is not particularly impressive for Shohei Otani if he throws a 95-mile-per-hour fastball. I'm thinking he took a little off that pitch, if anything. And I think that more and more because, obviously, we've had velocities skyrocket and flames have stayed on 95-mile-per-hour pitches. So there's been a great flame inflation. And Sam wrote about this for BP in early 2016. And even then he was picking up on the fact that we needed to do something about the flame threshold. And that was six and a half years ago. And the need has become even more acute. And yet, from what I can tell, the flames have not budged, at least on most broadcasts. So I wanted to mention this just to put it out there so that if any of our listeners have noticed that the broadcasts that they watch have maybe moved up

the flame threshold, that would be interesting to know because I have not noticed that. Because Sam, he seems to think that the flames started in 2005, at least when he wrote that article, he was looking at Fox broadcasts of the World Series and the flames seemed to have started in 2005. Although, as he noted back then, it was 96 was flames initially when they first used the flames, which is weird because they've actually lowered the minimum for flames, even though the average velocities and the peak velocities just keep climbing and climbing. So it seems to have been set at 95 now for more than a decade. And as we know, the velocity has ticked up just about every season and is at a record rate now. So if 95 was flameworthy in like 2011, it doesn't seem like it should still be flameworthy now. We need to adjust something and we just have not would you prefer a scenario

where the flames are sort of tied to league average fastball velo or would you like them to be player specific like you noted with otani that you know you see 95 in flames and you're like that doesn't really match what we know about what otani is capable of but there are still going to be guys where it's like oh 95 that's flamey so would you right would you like it to be indexed to the individual pitcher so that you are aware of his flames or would you prefer that it be sort of set to a league standard flame so that you're like oh that's a really fast pitch because i can see the argument for both, right? Where it is visually

sort of a good visual indicator for a given pitcher that he has his heat today versus not. But that is probably going to not translate for a broad audience, right? Like you, the only person who you probably observe with both greater frequency and diligence is is maybe your daughter than otani yeah it's neck and neck but but other people might not be as aware and so perhaps they will turn on an angel's broadcast

why would they do that to see otani really that's the only reason now to see him and then they would say well isn't that flame worthy so i can see i can see the argument for both yeah i think it could get confusing if you had flames for kyle hendrix at 88 or something it's like it's flame worthy for him but maybe people might be a bit confused. So I guess I favor the one-size-fits-all flame. If we need the flame at all, I mean, of course, we could just leave it to the viewer to decide what is flame-worthy in their own hearts. If it strikes them as fast, they can come to their own conclusions. Like most people who are regularly watching baseball broadcasts, they know what a fast pitch is and they probably even know for that particular pitcher. So you could argue that you don't need the flames at all,

but I guess it could be kind of fun to have flames like, oh, flames, that was fast, but it actually has to be fast. And so I think it does have to be tied to the scarcity of pitches at that velocity. So for instance, just looking at baseball savant now, if we look at pitches that are 95 miles per hour or faster, irrespective of pitch type. So in 2008, the first year of pitch tracking, 7.6% of all pitches were 95 or faster. This year so far, it's 15.8, so almost double. And people are throwing fewer fastballs as a percentage of all pitches today. So if you just limit it to fastballs, any type of fastball as classified by Baseball Savant, then the percentage has climbed from 12.2% in 2008 to 28.4 in 2022. So much more than doubled. And if you limit it to four seam fastballs,

then it's gone from 17.2% in 2008 to 33.8% in 2022. So just about doubled. And again, more than one in three four seam fastballs now is 95 mile per hour or faster. So it's not rare. Like if someone's throwing a four seamer, the odds are pretty decent that it's going to be 95 or faster that you're going to get flames. So I don't know where exactly to set it, but like if you decide that you wanted it to be roughly the percentage that it was in 2008, let's say, like if we had 17.2% of four-seamers in 2008 were 95 or faster. Well, these days, 20.3% of four-seamers are 96 or faster. So basically, you should have raised it more than one mile per hour, the flame minimum now, if you're accounting for the overall scarcity in the league averages and such. So what this is, I think, is probably that we are just tied to

base 10 and base five systems, right? And 95, oh, it's nice. It's divisible by five at 96, maybe even though that's where the flames started seemingly. Maybe that feels a little less fitting for a minimum, for a threshold. But really, if it should have been 95 before, then it should be at least 96 now. So we just need to get over our attachment to multiples of five. And I say that as someone who is pretty attached to multiples of five myself when it comes to this podcast. I mean, I would probably advocate for the following following which is that it should be 100 and above oh okay you know it's it's not that that it isn't impressive to throw a 98 mile an hour pitch but i think when i because of the the the sort of upward trajectory of fastball velocities, when I think about what the flames should denote

from my perspective, it should be something awesome. Like in the traditional dictionary definition of awesome, like inspiring of awe. And certainly seeing 100 is less anomalous than it used to be. But I think that when you're going, wow, it starts at 100, I think still. I think it starts at 100. And so I think, don't think small, Ben. Let's think big.

Let's have it be like, wow. And then we could have, if we wanted to be really irritating and confusing, if we wanted to make it so that people go what is this even supposed to mean like there could be the there could be the fastball flames those start at 100 and then you could for the for the handful of guys who throw like a 90 mile an hour slider right we're like here's my my slider is 95 or whatever nonsense like basically maybe i'm just designing a system that only works for jacob de grrom. It could be that I am just designing this around deGrom. That's not a representative picture. You know, he is special in a number of ways. But I think that maybe I would advocate for flames only at 100 so that people go, wow, like that. Interesting. Interesting. Yeah. I

could see the argument that maybe the flames are really redundant at 100 because 100 is just so breathtaking anyway. Sure. Even though it's more common than it used to be. It's like if you see triple digits, everyone knows that's something special. So maybe it's just overkill to have the flames on 100. But you're right. flames on 100. But you're right. That is when it feels really special now, I think, just because, yeah, even though maybe the league average has only ticked up by one or two miles per hour since,

let's say, they started doing flames at 95, I think the idea of high 90s velo has just become so normalized. And you just expect to see that from so many relievers, particularly, that it's just not that special. even if it's like 98 or something you're just kind of like ho-hum you know it's just another guy coming in firing 98 mile per hour fastballs and nasty sliders so i see what you mean that it's almost like you have to raise the threshold more right than the league average movement alone would suggest. Yeah, because I think that what you want that moment to denote is like, whoa, wow. Yeah. And so I think that it doesn't need to even just indicate the average, which I realize is being pulled up in some respects by the really high velos, right? It's like, what's the average and the median are probably not the same. But so I think you want it to,

I think you want it to like make your eyes pop. You know, I think you want it to be the sort of thing where you're in the ballpark and that number comes up and you're like, whoa, what did I just see? You know, I just saw something really cool. So I think that we should interrogate the editorial purpose of the flames a little bit before we decide what the the threshold needs to be but i agree with you that

it is currently set too low you know it's pedestrian 95 at this point right it's you know this is wages not keeping up with inflation like right exactly what else do you got for me you need a cost of living increase yeah it comes to the flames. Exactly. I just wanted to put that out there because I don't watch every single baseball broadcast and I wouldn't notice where they have the flame threshold set. So if your team, if the broadcast that you watch most often has a higher threshold or has raised its threshold from wherever it was previously, please let us know.

I wonder whether that's happened. Yeah. 122.4 miles per hour, topping John Carlos Stanton's 122.2s, which he had done a couple of times. So Cruz hit one off the wall. It ended up being a single because it was hit so hard. It was hit so hard. I had to watch the video numerous times to figure out what had happened because I could not see the ball. I don't know whether it was because of the speed or because of the camera work, but I couldn't see the ball and I couldn't tell where the ball went because it seemed like the right fielder, who is Ronald Cunha, I believe, he seemed to field it, I thought at first, like he fielded it on a hop, like it was in front of him, but actually I think it was off the wall. It ricocheted so hard that he like backhanded it off the wall and held Cruz to a single. So pretty impressive. Although I got to say, I guess Stanton now,

the gauntlet has been thrown down and he's coming off the IL this week. So we'll see if he can raise the roof again here. But it's almost fun in a weird way that Onal Cruz, despite being a StatCast superstar, has not been a valuable Major League league baseball player thus far. He may yet be, but he's constantly left and right doing these incredibly impressive things where he's throwing balls in the infield harder than anyone ever has, or he's racking up impressive sprint speeds, or he's now hitting a ball harder than anyone ever has. And yet he's been a well below average batter and like a replacement level player, essentially, which is like kind of interesting, kind of like illuminating in a way, I guess, in the sense that you need more than raw physical skills and tools to be good at baseball. So like,

even if you can run faster than almost anyone and throw the ball harder than everyone and hit the ball harder than everyone, that's still not enough. Like if you don't make good swing decisions and you strike out too much and you don't walk that much and your defense is lacking in some other respects and maybe your base running decisions and stealing decisions are not optimized either, like you might not be good, you know? not optimized either, like you might not be good, you know, or he might still be good. Like he might very well still learn those things and refine his game and get good. And obviously when he's starting with this kind of foundation of just being able to hit and run and throw so hard, that's got to help, but it requires more than that. It seems like, so he's not been a good hitter and he has, I guess it depends on which defensive stat you look at. And it's just a fairly small sample still with him. So some say he's been decent. Some say he's been very bad. But it takes more than just setting stat cast

records on individual plays to be a good baseball player. it's just incredibly hard and perhaps nothing drives that home more than guys with you know actual 80 tools who still struggle to find their way at least for right now and you're right jury is still out it's not as if we are looking at cruises career and well he's just gonna be kind of sub replacement-replacement forever. But it is not enough. One is not saved by 80-grade tools alone, right? Right. Yeah. And his expected numbers are not really any better than his actual numbers.

Yeah, it's not like there's a wild discrepancy there. You're like, oh, okay. You're kind of in that. He has like a 260 or 275 BABIP despite his speed. I mean, I'm sure like some of these things will improve, but in the same way that it's instructive, like having Mike Trout and Shohei Otani is not necessarily enough to build a good baseball team. It's sort of the same thing on an individual level where like having an 80 arm and 80 power is just not necessarily enough either because there are

some things that are not even traditionally classified as tools, I guess, right? Like plate discipline that are pretty darn important and can prevent you from actually making the most of your raw physical skills. So, you know, I hope he does put it together and then he becomes actually a really good player because the ceiling obviously is sky high. Right. It's even taller than he is and that's saying something, you know, because he's famously quite tall. So I went to a baseball game on Tuesday. What?

Went to the Subway Series, Yankees-Mets game. Saw the streaking Yankees. Glad you got your nose out of the spreadsheet there, Ben. Yeah, I did. Although really going as a fan for the first time in a while kind of reminded me why I don't do that more often, just because I guess it's specific to Yankee Stadium, which I just, it's a completely charmless place in my mind. Like, I don't want to offend any Yankees fans here, but I don't know if I will, because it doesn't seem to me that

Yankees fans are all that attached to the place either. Like, growing up as a Yankees fans here, but I don't know if I will because it doesn't seem to me that Yankees fans are all that attached to the place either. Growing up as a Yankees fan with the previous version of Yankee Stadium, that place was one of my favorite places in the world. That was hallowed ground. I loved it. It was run down in some ways, and I understand why they wanted to replace it. I mean, I know that they wanted to replace it so they could have like more luxury boxes and a moat in front of where the rich people sit and so forth. But also, it was not in the best condition. I get it. But it had charm. It had great sight lines and you were close to the field and it was just a great place and obviously colored by being a kid and seeing great teams play there and having those great memories. But it was also just like a fun place to watch a game. And New Yankee Stadium, which is not actually new at this point, just is not.

Like it's not run down or decrepit like some parks are. It's just devoid of character and charm and also just like really not a user-friendly experience. Like I know that it was obviously like a sellout and it was Yankees-Mets and everything, but it took me like, you know, you get out of the subway and I was immediately flagged down by an Effectively Wild listener who took a selfie, which was flattering, but it was downhill from there because it was like, you know like you get out right in front of the stadium. And then it took me like half an hour to get on the line to get in the park, basically. It's so strange.

It's like this labyrinthine just tangle of lines and you go this way and you go that way. And there's just like milling about for like entire blocks before you actually officially get to the line. Like I've never been to a venue that is harder to get into than Yankee Stadium. And I don't know what it is. Like I've been to sellouts and other ballparks and other big places seeing concerts and everything. And I just I don't think there is a worse experience just to like get into the park

and like everyone on the line is like this is ridiculous. Like what is happening here? And like, I just like could not get reception on my phone just because like there were so many people milling around. So I'm like trying to pull up the wedding of an old friend that's coming up later this year. And so a couple of us, the groomsmen, were taking him to this game. He's a Mets fan and the other one was a Yankees fan. And like it was fun. It was a good game. And once we got in, we didn't get to Grom. Unfortunately, he had been scheduled to pitch, but then he got pushed back. So we got Tywon Walker instead, which is not quite as special.

But it turned out to be a good game. But like we didn't get into the park until the second inning and we got there early. So we just like could not get in. And then my friends, they wanted to get some food. And I was like, no, thank you. Like I've had enough time on lines. They were getting food for like two innings. Like it was like the worst. And then of course, like you get onto the D train afterward and oh, man, it's like total sardine can situation and like trains not running. And if I don't get COVID from that, then I just must be immune. I don't know.

It's like just not the greatest. It's like you couple the price and just like the aesthetic of the place and everything. And, you know, unless you're going to a great game with great friends and great company, in which case it's fun regardless. Right. Like it got to a point where, you know, I'm with a friend and we're just like aghast at how long it's taking to get into the park. And it went past like frustrating to just like almost absurdly fun in a way that it was like so mismanaged that it took us so long to get in. But, man, I mean, that that place i don't love it i it just seems like they did not do a good job with that park both in terms of like getting into it and just the accessibility and then just like how

fun it is to watch a game there and you're just you're further from the field it's just it's not a special ballpark it's really not like I much prefer Citi Field, frankly, and just about everywhere. Almost everywhere I've gone except for old cookie cutter, multi-purpose parks, maybe, some of which are no longer around anymore. It's toward the bottom of my list, if not at the bottom of my ballpark list. Yeah, I feel, well, I always feel nervous leveling these criticisms. But I will say, perhaps this will inoculate me a little bit. As a person who was able to go to a game at old Yankee Stadium, I'm sure that if it were my regular ballpark, the gaps between when an experience is fun and old-timey and obviously run down would maybe widen and be more obvious. But yeah, it had character, right? It had personality. And I think it wasn't just that it had grime. It had actual personality to it. And even then, I remember being kind of underwhelmed by some of the like concession options.

But like the ballpark was cool. So whatever. Like that's what you're there for. Right. Sure. And, you know, that was like what 2008 was the last year of that place. So, you know, they didn't have as much gourmet ballpark food back then. Anywhere.

Right. Exactly. Like this was I would imagine that for the time it was pretty standard right like we weren't doing we weren't doing anything other than bud light anywhere really at that point so i think that it had it had a feel to it you could feel the history to the place and you're right like it i've said this before like the new yankee Stadium feels like they built a ballpark on the back lot at Disney so that they could film a show or a movie about a baseball team.

And it feels like it is generic on purpose in a way that is very strange for such a storied franchise and for a franchise that has a very high level of self-regard right like you would think that they would want you to go into that place and be like a temple to baseball and specifically yankees baseball and it just doesn't have that feel to it and then yeah whenever whenever a team that is and has been very good for a long time like can't do the ticket logistics stuff. I'm just like, what's your excuse for this? Because I remember there were times when I was, you know, when my local park was what is now T-Mobile, what was Safeco. And, you know, there would be a couple

of weekends a year where either because of a ballpark promotion or because of the visiting team coming in, like Safeco would be full and you could tell that they were kind of stretched, right? That they weren't used to dealing with sellout crowds because the Mariners were not good and hadn't been good for a long time. But it's like, what is the Yankees excuse for that? Are they just, is the assumption just that, well, you're going to put up with this

because you really want to see the Yankees and the Mets. Like I know that not every day is a sellout there. And I know that not every day has as much sort of local buy-in as a Subway series game where you're pulling both local teams fandoms. But like you got to have that stuff kind of figured out. Plus, it is the worst feeling when you are in an extremely long line such that you cannot even see the front of it really. You are just, you are, not only are you aware of your distance, but you are, or at least I am, you're aware of the grand act of faith

that you are engaged in because you are assuming that you are in the right line and that the people ahead of you didn't just like form a line, right? That they weren't like, I guess this is where you know i was i was coming home from a couple of days of vacation yesterday and you know there was a moment where it became clear in the boarding group that someone had just like stood in a place and then

everyone assumed that was the front of the line and it was not they were just standing there they were oh i'm sorry are you in line and it was gosh. Yeah. We just had to take it on faith. Right. That you were in the place you need to be. We're in the line for the line. Yeah. And I've been there many times, so it's not just for Subway Series. It's never routine to get in there.

It's never like you just sail right through. I don't know what it is. Yes, they have metal detectors and all of that, but it didn't even seem like that was such a holdup. It was just like crowd control. There wasn't any. It was just uncontrolled crowd. So I don't know how they don't have this down pat at this point, having been open for so long and having had many Subway Series games before. But really, like, that's part of the problem.

And then once you get into the park, you're underwhelmed by the look of the place and the feel of the place as well. And I've worked there as a Yankees employee. I've worked there as a writer and I've gone there as a fan. So it's not a small sample for me. It's the closest MLB ballpark to me. I've been there many times and I'm just extremely unimpressed by the place. It's also astoundingly loud. And I know that nothing makes you sound older than complaining about the decibel level at a ballpark, but it's just deafening in there. Not being in the press box, I could fully appreciate the volume. My friend was joking that it's like if you're a baseball broadcaster, you have to be conscious of starting a story with two outs because you might get cut off. It's the same sort of thing if you're just with a friend at Yankee Stadium. The between innings noise just drowns everything else out. Not saying it needs to be like a church in there or that the

old stadium was quiet in my youth, but having a conversation with your friends is one of the best parts of being at a ballpark. And if you can't do that because it's so loud, then maybe it's too loud. Every time they would flash like, make some noise on the scoreboard. It's like, no, please have mercy. My ears have been punished enough. I was at a concert at MetLife Stadium last week, and I'm not sure which was that or MetLife or Yankee Stadium. Not great that I would even ask that question. And along those lines, I've been thinking about this all season long because, you know, speaking of potentially angering huge fan bases by insulting their ballparks. I was almost impressed by Red Sox reliever Josh Wienkowski, who's a rookie. And earlier this year, the Red Sox went to Wrigley and played the

Cubs. And Wienkowski offered his review of Wrigley compared to Fenway. Have you been to Wrigley and or Fenway? I haven't been to either, no. Okay. All right. I have been to each, but not often. I think I've only been to Wrigley once, and it was probably before a lot of the recent renovations. And I've been to Fenway maybe twice. But, you know, Winkowski just maybe with the confidence of a 24-year-old, or I guess he was probably 23 when he said this. Or perhaps the innocence of a 23-year-old, right? Yeah, maybe so. And he said Fenway Park kind of has a presence to it. I really didn't get that

here in Wrigley, to be honest. I said to my mom, this place is very stock standard, if you ask me. I didn't really feel anything, to be honest. It kind of just felt like another ballpark. He said it was a little underwhelming. And naturally, he took some flack from Cubs fans. I guess he had just turned 24 at that point. And he defended himself. He stood by his words. He said, people want authenticity and honesty a whole bunch. And then you give them a little bit and then people take it personally. One thing I will say, I was not attacking the fans with that comment. Sure, fair enough. Then he said, as a rookie, obviously, every time you get to a new ballpark, you get into the dugout and kind of look around. When I arrived, there were no fans in the stadium,

so I didn't have that feel, and my initial impression was honestly what I said. The lower level and then the top was just very standard, in my opinion. It was atmosphere you could definitely feel it and obviously i don't underestimate the history there but architecturally i stand by my comment this was a bold thing to say yeah i'm kind of with him to an extent now i will say like again small sample but i think if i had to choose one to save and this is like the genre of things where we pick one and you always say, why do we have to choose? Yeah, who are these particular terrorists who are like, you must. Yeah. obviously. But I mean, I think he has a point, at least architecturally speaking, that Fenway is weirder, that it's unique in a way that Wrigley is not quite. If they're both known for

green outfield walls, you would have to say that the green of the green monster is weirder than the green of the ivy. I mean, they're both unusual in their own way. And the ivy perhaps is unsafe in a way. But I mean, you know, it's more eye catching, I guess, to have this giant wall out there, like and to have all the ins and outs of Fenway where like, you know, you have the weird right field where you can't tell what's a home run and what's not. And then you have the deep center and just like the regular asymmetrical sort of fence. And like Fenway feels more like you built this ballpark inside the space that you had in a city, right? And you're just trying to cram a ballpark in there.

And they've both been renovated and freshened up and everything. So it's not like they're original selves anymore. But I see what he means. Like it's a way to get some good cheap heat, I guess, from your fans to be like, oh yeah, Fenway is better than Wrigley because people compare those parks because they're the two oldest.

But I guess just my initial impression, having been to each once or twice, probably was sort of similar to Winkowski's in that like going to Fenway, it's like, oh, wow, this is unlike any other park I've ever been to. Like this is so strange and so irregular and so unusual. And, you know, also really good sight lines, whereas in Wrigley, you might get stuck behind a pole or something. I mean, maybe that used to happen at Fenway too. I guess I'm saying like, I sort of sympathize with his initial take

here. And I guess you're spared from having a take having not been to either place, whereas I'm alienating some large portion of some fan base probably with these comments. But I see what you mean, Josh Minkowski, and I defend your right to say it man it's just such a it can just be a very fraught thing to wade into because you so you know people they develop an attachment to those places that is akin to like their own homes and of course you know there's i'm sure stuff in everyone's house or apartment or what have you where they're like oh i wish i could do that differently but you kind of stop seeing those things like your brain gives you the grace of not noticing the thing that annoys you the most about where you live so that you cannot be driven mad by your surroundings and this you know it's the same thing with with your ballpark i've said it on this podcast before

that like if the coliseum were my local park I would probably be a big defender of it even as I acknowledged its limitations or the trop or whatever. Sure. It's fine if you like it. It's fine if it's your favorite place and it's not other people's. That's fine. It's fine. It's okay. We don't need to take it personally, although I understand it's hard not It's okay. the way that you got with the semi-old Yankee Stadium because it's not literally the same location quite. And so even though they've mirrored the design in some ways, you know,

it's not quite the same place. Wrigley Fenway, yeah, they've changed, but it is essentially the same place. And so you do feel like you're walking into someplace special when you get there. Also, I guess I'm more of a night game person than a day game person in general. I mean, both can be good, but because I prefer less sun and cooler temperatures, all else being equal, I prefer a nice night game. And I think I went to Wrig. And it's also like if you happen to be seated behind a support strut of some sort, like maybe you feel like you're getting the authentic Wrigley experience. Like this is how they used to build ballparks. They didn't have the same materials. They had to just have struts that were just like right in the middle of your sight line. Now you wouldn't want a season ticket right behind it. But if you're there for one game, it's like, okay, I'm getting the authentic Wrigley Field experience here. Not that there are support struts,

not that every seat is obstructed view. It's not, but there's some weird angles. Have they taken care of that issue at Fenway? Because I thought Fenway was like famous for having a bunch of obstructed view seats. Yeah, that's had that issue too. I don't know whether those are completely gone because again, it's been a little while since I was there as well. I'm just saying like the initial experience when your eyes take it in for the first time and the green of the grass and the crack of the bat

and all those cliches. Like I was more overwhelmed by Fenway than perhaps any ballpark I have been to. It's such a singular place. And that's coming from someone who, at the time I first went there, I was a Yankees fan and I felt like I was in enemy territory or something. It's like, should I even go to this place? Is it disloyal or something? I was in Boston. I don't think the Yankees were playing. It was just like, should I go see Fenway?

And so if anything, I would have been biased against the place right and yet i was extremely impressed by it well i hope that you don't get a bunch of angry emails you know i think it'll i think it'll be fine but yeah the yankees fans were with me when i was dumping on yankee stadium until i started praising fenway then i probably lost a bunch of them right they were, what the heck is going on? Yeah. All right. So some news that has happened since we last recorded. Several things I suppose we should touch on. First, it sounds like there may be some deliverance in sight for the Angels. Yeah. That there may be a regime change coming. The Artie Moreno, owner of the Angels, has announced that he is exploring a sale.

We don't know what the timeline is here, but it's not even just a rumored thing. He came out with a statement. They are looking to sell that franchise. And that has potential implications, I suppose, for where Otani will play or it could, I guess, or whether they decide to trade him or try in earnest to extend him, which seems like it would be a pretty tough sell at this point. But now it's almost like a one-soto situation where there are ownership considerations here. And so I don't know whether he wants to get Otani off the books. It's not like he's making much money at this point anyway. So probably you don't have that same concern. But do you want to try to keep Otani locked up long term? Does that make the sale more attractive? Or does the ownership

uncertainty make you more likely to trade him? I don't know. Beyond that, though, I think if you had to pin the blame for the Angels not winning with Trout or with Otani over this period, there's a lot of blame to go around and maybe some lousy luck as well. But Artie Moreno does not have a great reputation as an owner. They've never been one of the lowest spending teams, but they've also never gone above like 180 million or so. He sort of established what his ceiling was long ago for that payroll and hasn't really budged beyond it. And he is known as a meddler, someone who will scuttle trades or demand that certain moves be made and perhaps is not the best at deciding which moves should or should not be made. So that's an issue that maybe prevents you

from getting the best front office talent in some cases, or it just hamstrings the front office people that you do have. And then there are other issues with him and like minor leaguers and treatment of employees and all that that makes you think not the best. And, you know, the Angels were one of the like handful of teams or not even handful that voted against like raising the minimum competitive balance tax threshold during the most recent round of CBA negotiations too. So just a lot of reasons why if you're an Angels fan, you would probably not be sorry to see this team potentially changing hands and you don't know whose hands it will be

changing into and whether they will be better. But any change, it seems like for the Angels would probably be a welcome one at this point. Yeah, I agree. It'll be interesting. I think that I feel for Angels fans, because you're going to have, I imagine that they will have this experience, right? Where it's like there's the initial rush of relief that you might be moving on from a meddlesome owner, an owner who doesn't have a reputation for treating people particularly well in a way that seems to hamstring their ability to hire,

whose meddling seems to impact the roster in an actively negative way, who is sort of persnickety when it comes to the spending he does. He's willing to spend, but like you said, it's in particular areas. So you have that initial rush. You're like, ah, we will finally be free in Moreno. And then you have the like reality sink in of just how behind they are in some ways, right? Where we know that it takes a while to build the infrastructure to have a winning baseball team, right? And it's like, it's some of it is personnel and being able to attract personnel. I wonder what a new ownership group will say to the existing front office. Like I assume this means that Perry Manassian is just like on the hot seat by virtue of the fact that a new ownership group might want to bring in their own folks and have a hand in hiring a new GM and a new coaching staff.

So you have like that piece of it to contend with. You have, can we alter the reputation that this franchise has among baseball people to attract additional talent? And I don't say that as if there aren't good people who work in their front office now, but we know that the way that they have handled their hiring and the way that they treated their staff during the pandemic, like, turned a lot of people off of trying to work for them, right?

Because they're like, this guy doesn't have our back. Like, why would I want to work for Artie Moreno? He seems terrible. So there's that part. And then there's just, like, the literal physical infrastructure, right? It's like, you know, they have not had a good time developing players seemingly you know you look at some of the hitters that have gone through there and they've like changed their swings and those changes haven't been particularly fruitful and they have not been able to always develop

pitching well there are some guys that have sort of bucked that trend so it's like what is the existing state of like the systems infrastructure that the Angels had? And it might not be like super far off of industry standard. I'm not saying that with like special inside knowledge, but you think about the changes that had to take place in Miami after their sale.

And it took a couple of years for them to like get the literal systems infrastructure in place and the people in place to then be able to go out and actually execute a rebuild and it took a little while and so this is like the first step in a journey that might take still a couple of years but then again they were probably in for a couple of years of not being very good anyhow so maybe it doesn't actually alter the perception of their fans at all. And you're more likely to do it with, hopefully, maybe you're more likely to do it with a new ownership group who comes in and is like, yeah, let's go.

But we also know that sometimes the ownership groups come in and they're like, yeah, we're bored of being hedge fund managers and not in the like Steve Cohen way, but in the like bean counting kind of way. is it bean counting what is the etymology of that are you literally counting beans did they just pick a small thing and a tiny are they like pinto beans like tiny beans anyway so i think that it will be for the good of baseball it is potentially for the good of baseball to have moreno out as an owner. It's probably the very worst lateral move because you're not

guaranteed that the new owners are going to be awesome, but could they be worse? Relative to expectations. Is a monkey's paw curling somewhere as I say that? Did I just curse an entire franchise? Who could say?

But I will say this to the new potential owners of the Los Angeles Angels. If it takes moving Mike Trout's contract to trade Otani, and you want to make that move to the Mariners, I don't

know. I think they'll eat it. You should just think about it. Think about what feels right in your heart. All of the tweets from me as a big Mariners fan are gone because I just deleted all that stuff. So it's nice to give people a little taste of what they might. It's been a while where it's like, oh, I feel the stir. It's been fun to see the fandom come back a bit. A little bit.

I mean, I'm not trying to be crazy i'm just trying to trade mike trout and showy otani to the mariners as one does as a mostly neutral observer ben that's all it is anyway i interrupted you i don't know if it was the lack of success of the team that has prompted his decision to sell or the setback when it comes to becoming like a real estate company right right? Because a few months ago, there was a whole scandal where there was a deal between Moreno's management group and they were going to purchase Angel Stadium and the big property around the park and then develop it into, you know, multi-purpose residential commercial space like all the other ballpark villages that teams are doing.

And then the city council ruled against this deal there was a tentative agreement because like there was corruption and a federal investigation about violations of state laws and ethics and insider information and the former mayor of anaheim he resigned and it's like they overturned the Angel Stadium deal. So I don't know if that is what finally prompted this more so than the Angels having yet another losing season. But either way, perhaps good riddance whenever he is gone. So we'll see how long that process takes. It seems like there's a lot of confusion about the etymology of bean counting. Bean counting?

Yeah. It goes back quite a ways but no one knows exactly why or there are several competing theories i will uh link to some information i hope it's not a you know sometimes you're like what's the etymology of this thing and then you're like well it's horrible yeah but it's good to know that because then you can be like i will like to not use the horrible thing anymore sometimes Sometimes you just don't know, right? You're like, oh no, this relates to a time that we wish we were done with. As far as I can tell, it's not that. Okay, well, that's good.

All the little beans are sitting there. Don't try to milkshake duck us, Meg. We're just tiny little beans that everyone wants to count. Just counting beans. Maybe it's like a reference to abacus, abacai, abacuses. Yeah, this thing I'm reading says that you would think that it's that, but it doesn't actually seem to be that. But it's not that?

Wow. No. All right. Well, in addition to the flames thing, if we have any listeners who have a solid beat on the etymology of bean counting, I would appreciate that email because now I'm very curious. Yeah. It's an evocative term. I would appreciate that email because now I'm very curious. Yeah, it's an evocative term. I mean, maybe it sort of explains what it means.

It's like, you know, if you're counting the individual beans, it's like, you know, you're drilling down too far. You're down to, Ben, you're down to brass tacks. Yeah, it's a brass tack counter. But yeah, I don't know. I guess it's almost self-explanatory perhaps, or maybe there's some more convoluted origin, I don't know. I guess it's almost self-explanatory perhaps, or maybe there's some more convoluted origin that we don't know.

Yeah. Do you think they stay in Anaheim there? Hmm. I guess so. Probably, right? Yeah. There hasn't been a huge buzz about them moving specifically. And yeah, I think probably, at least in the short term. Well, you know, we just have to terrify an entire fan base with our questions. Tony La Russa has La Russa'd a couple times since we last spoke. since we last spoke. So there was another intentional walk in a 1-2 count with Oscar Gonzalez batting behind 1-2. There was a double steal. First base was opened up. And so La Russa issued the intentional walk to Oscar Gonzalez with a 1-2 count. There was, again, another backlash.

And La Russa said that the backlash about the 1-two intentional walks that he's issued have been, quote, the most ridiculous thing in this season. Excuse me, sir. Look, he doesn't even have to lay claim to the most ridiculous thing in this season. The most ridiculous thing in this season was still Joe Maddon ordering an intentional walk with the bases loaded. All you have to do is point at that to know it is not the most ridiculous thing. So. Right. Yeah.

I mean, I think it's pretty objectively more ridiculous to issue these walks than to get up in arms about them. Comment on them. But it just it seems like he just prioritizes the matchup so much more than the count. Like he almost disregards the count if it's a matchup that he doesn't like, which doesn't make much sense to me because the count really heavily influences the expected outcome of that matchup. So sure, even if you don't love this particular pitcher against that particular hitter, when that particular hitter is down one, two, then almost inevitably it's going to be better than starting with a

fresh count on the next guy. And it seems like he just does not take that into account or does not weigh it heavily enough. So it's weird, but he's done it enough times now that it's not a fluke. It's not just mixing things up or trying to shake things up the way Joe Maddon was. It's like, no, he thinks this actually makes sense analytically speaking. Well, got to disagree on that, Tony, I think. But maybe the more serious issue was what happened with Michael Kopech in his most recent start. So Kopech, he hurt his knee during warmups and like it was pretty apparent that he had and I think there was like a mound visit and he decided to stay in but was like seemingly hobbled by this injury and they let him stay in anyway and start the game. And he was charged with four earned runs, right? Like he didn't get an out.

He was clearly not effective and was hampered by this injury and his velocity was down and everything. And then he went on the IL and as of now, it doesn't seem to be super serious. But that's a dangerous thing when you let someone pitch hurt and it's pretty apparent that he's hurt. Not only do you hurt yourself in that game because the White Sox mounted a comeback and they ended up losing six to four because they were down four runs like in the first inning because he was ineffective. But also like you jeopardize the pitcher. I mean, you run the risk of exacerbating that injury or maybe he compensates for the knee thing and hurts his arm or something. And like Kopech, he's already had a knee issue this year, although I think it was the other

knee maybe. But like he's missed time. He's well over his innings maximum career now. So like you feel like you want to, you know, treat him carefully anyway. And he's like one of your few reliable starters all season. And it just seems a little cavalier. That seems like maybe not the best way to handle a pitcher. I mean, I know that the White Sox, they need every game. They need every win at this point. They're still just one game over 500 in their four games back of the Guardians in the Central as we speak. So maybe it's a little bit of desperation kicking in. But that seems not your best practices when it comes to managing. No, especially because I might argue that one of the most important things that a manager can do is protect future you from present you. Because, look, there are definitely times where an injury will befall a baseball player and they know right away, like, I need to be done or they simply can't continue. But we know that baseball players are hyper competitive. They always want to take the ball. They very often will not prioritize sort of their long-term health in the way that they maybe should.

I, I would argue that like guys who have been injured previously, who you might think would be the most sensitive to that are sometimes the most cavalier because they're like no i must you know i gotta do the thing like you know and so i think that we often give managers a hard time sometimes managers make decisions that don't make a lot of sense to us that if we had the information they had at their disposal would make more sense i don't think that what he's doing with intentional walks falls into that category of things to be clear. But like sometimes as we've talked about, like a reliever won't get used and the manager knows stuff that we don't. They just operate with a lot more information at their disposal and they're actually making a decision that makes

a good amount of sense. And like being able to say to a guy, no, you need to be done. Like we need you. We're going to need you next time. We're going to need you a guy, no, you need to be done. Like we need you. We're going to need you next time. We're going to need you a month from now. We're going to need you in the playoffs if we get there. And so, you know, I got to sit you now. Like that seems like one of the most important things that a manager can do. Got to protect future you from present you.

Sometimes present you, not famous for making good choices. And then it undermines future you from present you sometimes present you not famous for making good choices and then it undermines future you and future you looks back on past you and it's like what the heck man why didn't you make a better choice and it's like well i really wanted to pitch that day so right there you go yeah and man they have really needed johnny cueto who is just named al player of the week which is great because like everyone loves johnny Johnny Cueto. Yeah. He's immensely entertaining. And he was signed by the White Sox to a minor league deal, like, just before opening day. Right before opening day. Just about anyone could have had Johnny Cueto.

And he has a 2.58 ERA in 118 and two-thirds innings. Yeah. Granted, you know, he's not striking guys out. Like, the peripherals are not nearly as good, but they're not bad. And they're certainly not bad for someone you could get on a minor league deal that converted into a major league deal where he's making like four million dollars or something like, you know, and it's kind of odd that he was available on that. I don't know whether we talked about that at the time or not. Yeah, I don't remember if we even really mentioned it all that much. Yeah, I remember a point where it was like, you know, who's the best available pitcher left? Who's a free agent now? Johnny Cueto or something? Like, I mean, he was not bad last year either, you know, like he pitched like about the same number of innings that he has pitched so far

this season and had like a four-ish ERA and was worth, you know, like a win and a half in Fangraph's War at least. Like he was pretty decent when he was pitching. So it's almost odd that there wasn't more interest in his services, but he has rewarded the White Sox richly. You know, if you go by like ex-fip or whatever, like it's basically the same as he was last year, but he was pretty decent last year as like a mid-to-back rotation guy. And they've certainly needed that with all the injuries and ineffectiveness that they've dealt with this year. So player of the week, Johnny Cueto. I would love to see it.

And another player of the week, even older than Johnny Cueto, is Albert Pujols, who we talked about last time. Yeah. About how well he had been doing. And he's been doing even better since then. So he's up to a 146 WRC plus now. Like what's Jeremy Frank tweeted that he's had a like a 1300 slugging percentage over a recent 10 game span, which was his highest slugging percentage over any 10 game span in his career.

So late career renaissance. over any 10 game span in his career. So late career renaissance. And I mentioned last time that although he had been platooned lately, like he hadn't really been platooned in the full season, like they were using him against right-handed pitchers earlier in the year and it didn't go so well. Now they have really committed to the bit and he is basically at least only starting

and mostly only batting against lefties. And now that he's in this platoon role, he is really raking. And I noted this last time, but one of the things that made me pessimistic about someone picking him up after the Angels let him go is that he hadn't really hit lefties that well as an Angel either. But maybe whether it's that he can see the finish line or he's back in St. Louis or just knowing that he's a part-time player, like beginning with the Dodgers last year and just like committing to being a lefty masher, like really seems to be working for him.

So, I mean, I guess 700 homers is still a long shot at 693, although he just hit seven in a very short span. But like, you know, passing A-Rod for whatever that's worth, if you care about that, that's looking more likely now. I mean, like, he's like a legitimate threat now. I mean, you know, in the playoffs, like, you might be afraid to see Albert Pujols come up with a lefty in the mound. That's pretty great. You know, it doesn't seem to have changed his mind about sticking around longer, which is fine.

Like, maybe it's best that he go out on a high like this depending on how the cardinal season ends but boy he's been fantastic yeah he's been so here's a question for you bud okay so he is currently what he's how many away from tying a rod uh like four i think something like that and he's seven away from 700 right so yeah a rod had 696 okay this is three away from 700, right? Yeah, A-Rod had 696. Pujols is three away from that. So he's three away from that. He's seven away from the nice round number of 700. So you're Albert Pujols.

You've gotten comfortable with this role where you are really just being platooned, but you are doing that to great effect. You have these important milestones sort of in sight. And let's say you don't get there, right? Today we're recording on August 24th. You go on a very cold, cold streak. You don't hit another home run. You've said you're retiring at the end of the year.

Does part of you go, what if I stuck around a little bit longer to get a couple more and be able to get these milestones like what what do you think the odds are that he sort of sticks to the idea of being done or does he is he tempted i guess trying to put myself in his headspace i guess I wouldn't be that swayed by something like 700 or passing A-Rod. He's already at the top or close to the top of so many leaderboards, and he can't get to the actual top of some of the most significant ones. Just the other day, he passed Stan Musial, another Cardinals legend, to take over second place in total bases all time, which is pretty cool. But he's like 700 behind Henry Aaron still. So like, yeah, you can't catch him. No. And maybe it's sort of similar with the home runs where it's like, okay, passing A-Rod would be nice. Getting to 700 would be nice, I guess. But, you know, you're still behind Bonds, Aaron, Ruth. Like, does it move the needle that much to be fourth instead of fifth or to have 700 instead of 698 or something? If you've been around as long as Albert Pujols and accomplished as much as Albert Louis and everyone loves me, like then I might be tempted just to stay around to extend that run. But I guess when you have like as many huge numbers

as he has and you can't really move up to the very tippy top of the most significant ones, it probably would not sway me, I think. Right. So you, despite your love of having like, you know, nice round numbers, you wouldn't be like, I'm going to. So you, despite your love of having like, you know, nice round numbers, you wouldn't be like, I'm going to go through another, basically, I'm not going to go through another spring training so that I can attempt to bank a couple more. Yeah, probably not. Plus, if he cares about the 100 war threshold, he's at 100.7 now. So quit while you're ahead. Even with his pitching war taken into account? Oh, I guess 100.6 in that case, sir.

Your margin for error is very slight, Albert. Yeah. The Cardinals have been on quite a run lately, partly Pujols-fueled. But also, I guess they had their winning streak snapped by the Cubs on Tuesday. They did. Before that, they had seven in a row and, I don't know, 16 out of 19 or something roughly like that. Like not quite the last season's late season run, but like not so far from that. They've opened up a bit of a lead in the central and, you know, Jordan Montgomery has been like historically good for a trade deadline acquisition

throwing a Maddox the other day. That just seems like a perfect fit for pitcher and team with the sinkers and the infield defense and everything. Although certainly made the Yankees look not so great for a trade that a lot of people were flummoxed by and questioned when it was made. And now to see him go on that run and Bader not be back quite yet, it hasn't made the Yankees look the best for a move that many people were wondering about when it happened. But between that run he's been on and really just like everyone's raking and it's not just Arnauto and Goldschmidt and Pujols. It's also like the guys at the top of that lineup and like the Lars Knutbars and the Brendan Donovans and those guys are getting on base in front of the big mashers. So the offense has really kind of been carrying that team in addition to what Montgomery has done. So I know there's been a big hue and cry

over Yadier Molina taking a couple of games off to go watch his basketball team play in a championship in Puerto Rico. And it's such a weird only in high-level professional sports style story. I get it. By the standards of what constitutes acceptable reasons for taking time off in Major League Baseball, this probably doesn't clear them, I guess, just because baseball players, they don't just like, yeah, I'm going to take a couple of games off. I'm just going to go home for a while. In any other arena or realm, it would be totally normal and encouraged just to take a day off, go home, recharge a little bit. You just took a couple of days off. It's totally normal. Totally normal.

It's advisable. But in Major League Base baseball, which I guess I get because like, A, you're making tons of money. So there's that. And also there's, you know, you get a built in like four or five months off per year anyway, right? Because of the off season. So the need to take time off is a little less acute, assuming it's not, you know, for paternity or bereavement or something. It's just, you know, to go see your professional basketball team play. And I guess, you know, if you're a team leader, not that there's any shortage of like seasoned veterans on that team, but if you're a team leader and if you're maybe in your last season and people are like coming to pay their farewells or

whatever, and they don't get to see Yadier Molina. I don't think it affects the Cardinals that much because he's not that good anymore really, at least going by the tangibles. Unless you're just throwing shots at fan bases that are notorious for never reacting to things. I know. At least it's

equal opportunity here. I'm attacking a Cardinals legend and a Cubs legendary institution. So everyone can be mad at me and they can come together. But you know, like he has a 44 WRC plus this year. And even if his defense, which is somewhat diminished, I think, but even if it's still adding some value there, like losing Molina for a couple of games, probably not going to affect your playoff odds

too much at this point but it's just such a weird line of work where you can be drafted you can be traded whenever and if you try to take a little time off I mean people like there's abuse and blowback when players take time off to like go see the birth of their kid or whatever but like probably a little less of that than there used to be but if you're just like yeah I'm gonna go see the birth of their kid or whatever. But like probably a little less of that than there used to be. But if you're just like, yeah, I'm going to go see my other team play for a couple of games, then people will be upset about that in some cases. And I guess I understand why, you know, does it send some sort of message that you are not prioritizing winning or whatever? Maybe. But also like if you're Yadier Molina, man, that guy has never wanted to take

a day off. And he's played in so many postseason games and just the wear and tear on that body over the years. He's given you a pretty good service, I think. And he's pushing 40. No, he is 40 at this point. So it's understandable, it's understandable. But it's like only in professional sports at the elite level would this become a controversy. I understand why it did. But in no other realm would it be considered odd to take a couple days off. It's just such a strange business. It is a really supremely weird job. Like we said before, it's just the weirdest workplace you've ever seen so last things i guess we should note for nuna tatis jr had shoulder surgery

on top of everything else which i guess you might think oh man like when it rains it pours i mean he had the wrist thing and the motorcycles and the suspension and now shoulder surgery on top of everything in a way like it it almost makes me more optimistic about Fernanda Tatis when he returns, because I was worried about the shoulder, you know, because like the shoulder just kept popping out of its socket. And it's like a condition that he had and has. And there was a lot of risk that that could happen again. And it seemed like it could become a chronic issue. And he elected not to have surgery heading into this year. And so now that he has this enforced time off, he has decided to just get it over with.

But I actually feel a little bit better about him assuming the surgery is a success just because, like, it's never good news if you have to have shoulder surgery. But if you have this condition. Right. It's good to take care of stuff. Right. Yeah. surgery. But if you have this condition. Right. It's good to take care of stuff. Right. Yeah. So assuming this solves that problem, which I guess is not a given, but it would be a good thing if you didn't have to worry about his shoulder just popping out all

the time, especially if you're like going to put him back at shortstop and he could be diving. I don't know how much safer playing outfield was because you dive in the outfield too. But if that is taken care of, that would be good because like the worst case scenario would be that he comes back from the suspension after a month or so next season and then like the shoulder is an issue again right and then you're talking about yet another injury plagued season so hopefully this will do away with that scenario and he also i know he he spoke with reporters and apologized in a pretty unequivocal and I think good way for the circumstances that led up to his suspension. So hopefully, like, you know, you get your shoulder cleaned out and taken care of.

You're, you know, perhaps having a moment of reflection that makes you want to, you know, change your behavior going forward. And like we said, when we talked about the initial suspension, like hopefully a year from now, we're looking back being like, you know, he sure did. He grew up, he moved on from that and started making good choices. But I'm with you. I think that when you have the opportunity to get fully healthy, you should view it as such, if the circumstances surrounding his his chance to do that are obviously not great and hopefully that means that when he gets back and and is available next season after his suspension concludes that he like really hits the ground running is able to put all of this stuff behind him and the Padres are able to finally like deploy the, you know, terrifying Voltron lineup

that they hope to be able to use later this season. So, and I also wanted to note that I believe we fixed Alex Bregman. We did our magic that we sometimes do, which is so nice of us. Yeah, our power, it seems to be the opposite of the Sports Illustrated cover jinx. And maybe it's the same mechanism. It's like regression to the mean just in the opposite direction. But we've had a bit of a track record of sometimes pointing out that players such as, say, Bryce Harper, notably early last season, were not performing up to their usual standards, that we hadn't been talking about them all that much. And we did that with Alex Bregman as well, because we talked about him. It was June 10th, I believe, episode 1861. We mentioned that Bregman, after having a couple of down seasons, had started off sort of in a down way again. And I wondered whether it was even down or whether this was just who Alex Bregman was now. And I think we noted that he had been playing through all sorts of injuries, hamstring and quad and hand injuries.

But after being an MVP level player, he had declined to just being like a decent player. Like, you know, OK, good player, but not much above average batting wise. So since then, so that was June 10th. Since June 11th, he has hit.305,.395,.562. That is a.173 WRC plus. And he is the, I think, sixth best qualified hitter over that span after Judge Goldschmidt Freeman Arnauto Soto. It is then Alex Bregman, who's been worth more than three war over that span and again, sixth best hitter in baseball. So I think we fixed him.

I know that Ben Clemens just blogged about him for Fangraphs and concluded that he hasn't really changed anything obvious, that he's just sort of doing what was working for him before, but doing it better, maybe because he is fully healthy now. And so his approach of just being selective and only swinging at things that he can hit hard and then just pulling a lot of balls in the air and taking advantage of the Crawford boxes and making the most of his modest power. Like he's still following the same game plan and maybe it's just working better because he's healthy or maybe because we finally brought him up on the podcast and said, hey, Alex Bregman, what's going on? You're not a superstar anymore. And he decided he's going to turn on the afterburners and be great again.

And I know that David Lerola interviewed him around that time too. I guess mid-May he talked to him and Bregman noted then May 18th that he had made some mechanical changes, that there was something off with his hand load and the wrist position of his top hand and that they had just changed't know that it was changing the hand that fixed him or whether it was just us dragging him a bit on the podcast that finally just like, you know, lit a fire under him. But whatever it was, he's back to being capital A, capital B Alex Bregman again, it seems like. What else should we use our powers for. I know. We tried to use them for like Nelson Cruz and Joey Votto. Yeah. And it worked for a while because they were hitting incredibly well. And we did a follow up and then, you know, Votto hurt himself and maybe Cruz cooled off again. So it's only so much we can do, I guess, once you get to a certain age or injury level. But yeah, who else can we resuscitate and revive? We got to look around the league and see who's slumping that we would like to be good again i don't know i gotta think about that i mean

maybe we will have some sort of positive effect on all of the non-stat cast breaking things that o'neill cruz does you know maybe that'll happen i guess we just kind of got distracted from vato and cruz so yeah right and these episodes ben they're already so long you know we can't mention every guy every time people will riot and stop listening but yeah i'm gonna think about that who do i most want to help like turn turn it around who is email us yeah you want to like we can you know put a request in make an offering for for us to revive their careers by like negging them somehow and pointing out that they haven't actually been doing as well as they used to do so have we had it have we had the reverse effect on anyone because i want to you know you gotta understand the bounds of your

right superhero powers because you you only want to deploy them for good. I don't want to deploy them for evil, you know? Yeah. I'm sure when we talk about someone who's hitting well, we always caveat it. And so we inoculate ourselves against that player then slumping by noting that, oh, the fact that we're talking about them when they're on this heater probably means they might cool off at some point. But I don't know. Like, you know, we talked talking about them when they're on this heater probably means they might cool off at some point. But I don't know. Like, you know, we talked about Albert Pujols last week. He's only heated up since then.

We talked about Aaron Judge and his home run pace. He's still on pace for 62. He hit his 48th with me in attendance on Tuesday. That's right. So, you know, I don't know that we've had any complete collapses lately after we talked about someone who was hitting well. That's good because I don't want to, you know, we're not here to undermine anyone. We don't want anybody to start having a bad day and walk around being like, gosh, what's going on with me? And someone will be like, oh, they were nice about you on Effectively Wild. And it's like, oh, no,

better make it good. Right. Yeah. Don't want that. No. No. Don't want that reputation. Okay. And I did want to say, speaking of players who are on pace for historic home run accomplishments, we talked about Judge a ton. I just wanted to mention Munitaka Murakami, who is doing incredible things in NPB. Like the season he is having is unbelievable. And for those who don't know, he's been a good player for a while. He was the Central League MVP last year. But he has taken things up to just a new level now.

And he is just completely raking. And it's been fun to follow. So he has 45 homers now. And he's on pace for 58 at this point because they play 143 game seasons over there. He was on pace for 60 for a while, so he is probably not going to catch Vladimir Blentian, who has the single season record of 60 over there, but he is on pace to set the single season record for a Japanese player in MPB,

and he is already the youngest to hit 40 in a season. He's only like 22, right? Yeah, he's 22. He's hitting now 327, 457, 728 for the Swallows this year. 45 dingers. That's in 110 games and 470 plate appearances. And you would not know it from looking at his line, but offense is down significantly in NPB relative to last year and even to a few years before that. OPS is down like 20 points league-wide since last year and like 50 points since a few years ago. There's been a bit of a power outage there, and yet he is doing this in this environment.

And I was just looking on Delta Graphs, a website, a statistical service, which is sort of like a Fangraphs style site and statistical resource for NPB. He has 8.2 war, according to Delta Graphs, which is leading all position players by like two and a half war and leading all players because Yamamoto, the best pitcher, the ace, he's at six war. So Munataka Murakami is just head and shoulders above anyone else he has a 233 WRC plus which is I mean yes the quality of play in the league is a little lower than it is in the majors but still like 233 that's just like lap in the league I mean that is Bonzian that is like peak bonzian basically we have not seen anyone do that and just like looking delta graphs data goes back to 2014 the only other player qualified hitter during that span to get to 200 was yuki anagida no one has been

up in the the rarefied air where Murakami finds himself this season. So just pretty incredible. He's doing this at such a young age. And we talked earlier in the year about Roki Sasaki, the pitcher, who's even younger, who's 20 and is doing incredible things. And he is as well, even though he's pitched just over 100 innings, he's still like the second highest war of any pitcher for the Marines. And he has like the best FIP or adjusted FIP on record at Delta Graphs, like minimum 90 innings. Like he's been unbelievable as well. So to have a 20-year-old and a 22-year-old who are doing historic things, that's got to be really fun for fans to follow over there

Sasaki now has a 1.57 FIP with like almost five war in just a little more than 100 innings pitch like and they've been taking it easy and being careful with him which is good but like he's just like untouchable basically even when he's not pitching perfect games. So yeah, those guys are just a ton of fun. And Murakami, he just set a record by hitting home runs in five consecutive at-bats. That had never been done before in Japan, so he did that. Sasaki has a 37% strikeout rate, which no one with at least 90 innings pitch there is over 28%. So, again, he's just like lapping everyone. So it's just a lot of fun.

And like no one had hit 40 that young since Sadaharu Oh and Koji Akiyama, who were Hall of Famers, and they did it at 23. And so he's done it at 22 and it's just sort of like sky's the limit and both of these guys it will probably be a while before we see them in mlb if we do but doesn't mean we should not enjoy what they're doing while they're doing it so go check out their stats at the very least or look up some highlights if you can because pretty historic and special accomplishments for both of those guys. Yeah, agreed. And I guess lastly, maybe we should note that they announced the regular season schedule

for next year for 2023, which usually is a yawn for me. But this year is pretty notable because we have a new balanced or more balanced schedule. So all 30 teams will be playing each other. And the season is scheduled to start on March 30th. So it'll be nice to start and end a little earlier than we did this year because of the negotiations and the delay and everything. So I think the last game of the season is October 1st, the regular season that is. So March 30th to October 1st, that's nice. And, you know, less of a chance of the expanded playoffs going into November, which they will this year.

So the highlights here in the MLB press release. So this is the first season, which at least what they are calling a balanced schedule since interleague play was introduced in 1997. So you have division games. So of 52 total games against divisional opponents down from 76. So only 13 games, four series against each divisional opponent down from 19 games across six series. So you have seven home games and six away games against each of your divisional opponents. So 26 home, 26 away against your division. Then you have 64 total intra-league games, 32 home and 32 away against non-divisional league opponents. So that's down only two from 66. So you play six games against six league opponents and seven games against four league opponents. Then you have 46 total games against interleague opponents up from 20. So that's a

big difference here. So you play a home and home series against your natural rival. So that's four games total. Some teams' natural rivals are more of a rivalry than others. Then you have 42 games against other interleague opponents, including seven at home and seven on the road. So I kind of like it. There's a quote here from MLB's Chris Maranac. The new balanced schedule will feature all 30 clubs playing against each other for at least one series in 2023. each other for at least one series in 2023. This new format creates more consistent opponent matchups as clubs compete for postseason berths, particularly in the recently expanded wildcard round. Additionally, this fan-friendly format provides fans with the opportunity to see more

opponent matchups with a particular focus on dramatically expanding our most exciting interleague matchups and offers more national exposure to the star players throughout our game. So we always take a critical eye to MLB statements, but no lie detected there for me, at least. I'm on board with this plan. I think it is a benefit. Obviously, like it tears down whatever slight distinctions still exist between leagues, really. And so we'll basically just be at conferences at that point. There's no functional difference, really, between AL and NL anymore. But unless you're particularly attached to distinctions between leagues, I like this

from a competitive standpoint and a fairness standpoint. And I think I like it from an exposure standpoint. Like, you know, I guess you could say, like, it'll be a little less special certain matchups that you don't see for a period of years. And then when you do get to see them, whether it's in the World Series or in the regular season from time to time, it's like, oh, we haven't seen these two teams play in a while. Now you'll just see everyone play against each other all the time. But it seems like a good thing, especially when you're in this era where it seems like a lot of fandom of Major League Baseball is regional and local. And so maybe you're not paying attention on a national level.

And I think we'd like that to be the case more and for MLB to make an effort to promote that more. But while we are where we are, it seems like a decent idea to just have everyone play each other so that as a fan who's maybe watching only one team predominantly you still get to see everyone and maybe you get to feel like you have a better handle on the league as a whole than you would otherwise yeah i think that i think that that's right i think i get i get the old attachments but like i for one i'm excited that i will get to watch the seattle mariners play the aribacks in Arizona next year. That's nice. I'm mostly, you know, not having the playoffs extend so far

into November is good, but mostly Ben, you know what's nice? It's August 24th and I know when opening day is. I know. I know when it's going to be. I know when it's going to be. I can plan a bunch of stuff. I won't do it today because again, it's only August 24th

and I'm planning like, you know, I'm worried about what our postseason coverage is going to look like. I'm not like worried about it, but that's what I'm, you know, that's what's occupying my managerial energy at the moment is like, hey, let's figure out what our postseason schedule looks like. But it's so nice. Like if I really wanted to, if I get bored later today and I've done everything else I need to do, I could just sit down and plan out positional power rankings ben i could just do it so great i know yeah with the pandemics and cba talks and everything it's been a while since we could take for granted just like knowing when the baseball season starts yeah and i and yeah and like me being able to satisfy my own compulsions to organize

this is like the one of the least important parts of any of this right in the grand scheme of things i know people don't care about that but i care and i'm so happy i get to like say hey you know march 30th how many days do we run pprs back it up and then put that stuff on the Fangraphs Google calendar and not think about it for another couple months. Awesome. Good stuff. Happy for you. Happy for everyone.

Yeah. I love this for me. And not in the ironic people are saying, thanks, I hate it. No, I love it. I love it for me and for everyone else too. Yep. All right. So let's end with the past blast.

This is episode 1893. So this comes from 1893 and also from Richard Hershberger, saber historian, researcher, author of Strike Four, The Evolution of Baseball. And this one involves shenanigans with the ball as related in the Pittsburgh Press of January 16th. So the quote is, there are a lot of things about baseball

that very few people outside of professions know, said one of the local players last evening. In the first place, whenever a new ball was thrown out last season and we were in the field, it was tossed to the pitcher who put his private mark on the same so the visitors could not change the ball.

With our pitchers, it was the custom to put two marks with a long fingernail on the same so the visitors could not change the ball. With our pitchers, it was the custom to put two marks with a long fingernail on the ball across one of the seams, which would remain there as long as the ball was in play. About half a dozen times last season, the ball got pretty well greased in the outfield and it was pretty hard to hit. In using a greased ball, our pitchers always had a lot of powdered rosin in their pockets and it wasn't very hard to keep. In using a greased ball, our pitchers always had a lot of powdered rosin in their pockets, and it wasn't very hard to keep control of the ball. Now and then, when the visitors were hitting too hard, we substituted brotherhood balls. The catcher usually made this change, keeping the brotherhood ball concealed under his chest protector, and when signaled,

making a lightning change. That old, innocent-looking guy, Connie Mack, is full of such tricks. With that long arm of his, I have seen him stand behind the batter, and with a ball coming over the plate, he would push his big gloved hand under the bat and lift the stick ever so lightly when the batter was trying to make a bunt or sacrifice hit. All of these tricks are played so nice and easy that it sometimes took the visitors some time to get on. The professionals never kick on these little pieces of bi-play, So Richard writes, was of greasing the ball. In the spitball era of a decade later, the purpose was understood to be to reduce the friction between the ball and the pitcher's hand to let the ball slide off the fingers. Why then would the pitcher use rosin? Heck, if I know, if nothing else, we see here that the application of foreign substances to the ball was well understood well before the spitball

rose to prominence. So yeah, I suppose that just goes to show that the ball has been doctored in one way or another basically since the start. But it is interesting that initially all the rage was like greasing or slicking up the ball. And more recently, it's been about improving your grip and just like having it be tackier and stickier so that it does not slide off of your fingers so that you're able to get a better grip than ever and

to enhance your spin rate. So I guess there are a couple of different effects you might be going for there. Like when you're loading up the ball with grease or spit or whatever it was, then you're affecting the movement of the ball through the air, right? And the air resistance and the way that the air is acting on the ball and the forces and how they're being applied. And you might end up with some more unpredictable ball movement through the air. ball movement through the air. Whereas now, if you're trying to load up the ball with something sticky so that you get a good grip, it's about really being able to grip it and rip it so that you can get the maximum spin and efficiency and movement. So maybe it's two different ways to achieve two different aims, but I guess the consistent theme is that we'll use whatever we can use and get away with in order to improve

our pitching, whether it's the 19th century or the 21st. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Well, thanks to Richard for the past blast as usual. And we will be back very soon because we got a late start to this week. We did. It's my fault.

That's okay. You took a couple of days off, not even to go see your professional basketball team in its championship, but just to have a couple days off. That's okay, because you're a podcaster and a managing editor, and we accept that people in such professions might take a little time off

as opposed to being a catcher for a major league team when it's just off-verboten. How dare you? Quitting on your team. Yeah. Alright, we'll be back soon. for a major league team when it's just off verboten. How dare you? Quitting on your team. Yeah. All right. We'll be back soon. All right. Before I leave you, I have a few follow-ups and corrections from last week.

The first is that when we did a Meet a Major Leaguer segment on Brennan Bernardino, I mentioned that he had played for the 2018 Winnipeg Gold Eyes, the independent league team in the American Association. However, I did not say Gold Eyes. I said Golden Eyes. Clearly had the 25th anniversary this week of Golden Eye 007 on the brain. It is, in fact, Gold Eyes, not Golden Eyes. A couple of listeners wrote in to point this out, including Al, who said it is the Winnipeg

Gold Eyes, not Golden Eyes. The Gold Eye is a fish commonly found in Manitoba, and the baseball team is one of our only nice things. Please at least give us this. Sorry, Al. I'm sure there are other nice things in Manitoba and the baseball team is one of our only nice things? Please at least give us this. Sorry, Al. I'm sure there are other nice things in Manitoba. But yes, it's the Gold Eyes. And if you want more on the Gold Eyes, check out episode 1085 when we devoted most of an

episode to a strange game played by the Winnipeg Gold Eyes. I did say it correctly back then. Also, last time I included a couple broadcaster mix-ups of Angel's Outfielder Taylor Ward's name. I also messed up myself when recording that outro, which I acknowledged and included my little blooper reel of me messing it up the first time. What I did not notice was that during the episode proper, I had called Brandon Marsh Brandon Walsh, so even when I and producer Dylan caught one of my Angel or former Angels names mistakes, we did not catch one of the others.

It's just hard with all the Wards and the Wades and the Marshes and the Walshes. So it was fitting that I screwed up that name in a way that I did not even notice. And also, one of those broadcaster screw-ups I played was Dave Sims, I believe, calling Taylor Ward Turner Ward. It had slipped my mind at that moment that Turner Ward was himself a Major League Baseball player, although not for some time. But he was an outfielder who played for several teams from 1990 to 2001, so perhaps that's what Sims was thinking of. These days, Turner Ward is an assistant hitting coach for the Cardinals, so who knows, maybe he's the one who fixed Albert Pujols. He's the one who fixed Albert Pujols.

And while we're on the subject of Ward mistakes, listener Danny wrote in to say, I would like to bring to your attention that neither Tyler Wade nor Taylor Ward needs to be in a game for the names to be mixed up. In the top of the third inning of the Giants at Rockies game on Friday, August 19th, the Rockies radio announcer, whom I believe was Jerry Corrigan, was talking about Lamont Wade Jr. and dropped a Lamont Ward, but immediately realized his mistake and corrected himself. I'll play that for you here. Two outs, nobody on. Lamont Warren. Wade, I should say, is the hitter, the right fielder. Probably more of a Lamont Warren than Wade or Ward.

Kind of got caught in between there. But Danny continues, This makes me think that all announcers know about the rash of Wade-Ward mixups and are on edge for every instance of any player named either Wade or Ward. In this case, the pressure got to the announcer and he slipped, much to the amusement of this Effect highest wars ever. And I reported that Adrian Beltre in 2010, who was a six plus Fangraphs war player, he had a very slightly negative WPA. And so he held the distinction at least since 1974 of having the highest war of any player with a negative WPA. We were trying to puzzle out how that had happened. And we noted that he had a lot of double plays that year. So maybe some high leverage double plays had contributed to it.

A few listeners wrote in to note that it seemed like the leaderboard of high war negative WPA players was populated by a lot of defense first players. And that's an excellent point because one of the limitations or simplifications of WPA is that it credits run prevention to the pitcher, not to the fielder. So if a lot of your war value is coming from your defense, then that's not really going to be accounted for by your WPA. And so it would be easier for a high war player to be a negative WPA player if a greater percentage of his war is coming from his defensive value. So I looked at it again. This time, substituting for war, I used offense, which is a fangraph stat that just takes into account your runs above average as a batter and as a base quite a good hitter, especially that year. He had a 140 WRC+. So he still shows up toward the top. But the highest offense only player with a negative WPA since 74 is another Boston Red Sox, Bill Miller in 2003. So that year, Bill Miller was worth 4.7 fangraphs were, but he had a 31.9 offense score. So he was like 32 runs above average, basically as a base runner

and batter. And he had a negative 0.55 WPA. And it looks like his issue was unclutchness that year. He had a 938 OPS plus overall, but a 668 OPS in late and close situations. He had a 13-22 OPS when the score difference was greater than four runs in either direction, and only a 7-60 or so when it was a tie game or within one run. So he didn't have a clutch year that year, and that's how he ended up on top. So it was 2003 Bill Miller, 1991 Chris Sabo, and then 2010 Adrian Beltre. After that, 1996, Jose Canseco. 1985, Mike Davis. And I'll put the rest of the list online, linked on the show page. This year's leader, by the way, with one of the top 20 scorers all time is Xander Bogarts. Negative 0.2 WPA, 18.9 offense. Lastly, we had a question about recursive caps. So a baseball cap that would have a character on it who was wearing the same cap. I put out a call for candidates and Joseph wrote in

to note the 1978 Orioles hat actually does feature the Oriole bird wearing a hat with the Oriole bird on it. However it's just the outline of the bird wearing a cap so there's not enough detail for multiple levels of recursion. But there's sort of an implied cap recursion there. So thanks for the suggestion, Joseph. I will put a link to that photo online as well. You can support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild. The following five listeners have already signed up

and pledged some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going, get themselves access to some perks, and help us stay ad-free. Cal Pringle, Jeff is a Geek, Adrian Pineda, SH, and Soren O'Connell. Thanks to all of you. Our Patreon supporters get access to the Effectively Wild Discord group for patrons only. Great discussion of the podcast and baseball and life in general going on at all hours there.

You also get access to bonus episodes that Meg and I host, discounts on t-shirts, playoff live streams, and more. You can contact me and Meg via email at podcastatfangraphs.com. You can rate, review, and subscribe to Effectively Wild on iTunes and Spotify and other podcast platforms. You can follow Effectively Wild on Twitter at EWPod. And you can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at r slash Effectively Wild. Thanks to Dylan Higgins for his editing and production assistance. We will be back to talk to you soon.

Thank you. Oh, my Yankee Stadium. Everyone is beautiful. Everyone is beautiful. Oh, my Yankee Stadium. Goodbye, my beautiful Yankee Stadium.