Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 1948: The 2023 Minor League Free Agent Draft

Episode Date: December 29, 2022

Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and FanGraphs writer Ben Clemens continue a cherished podcast tradition by conducting the 10th annual Effectively Wild Minor League Free Agent Draft, in which they select 10 minor league free agents each and compete to see whose roster will accumulate the most combined MLB playing time in 2023. First they explain […]

20 years in the minor leagues Ain't no place I didn't go Well I got a few hits But I never made the show And I could hang on for a few years Doing what I've done before I want to hear the laughing river Flowing right outside my door

Hello and welcome to episode 1948 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of The Ringer, joined as always by Meg Rowley of Fangraphs. Hello, Meg. Hello. And also by Ben Clemens of Fangraphs. Hello, other Ben. Hey, Ben. How's it going? Well, we meet again. Welcome back, my friends, to the show that never ends. This is the 10th annual Minor League Free Agent Draft.

So there are now as many Minor League Free Agent Drafts as there are about to be films in the Fast Saga. I think similarly exciting. And to mark the occasion of our 10th Minor League Free Agent Draft, we will be drafting Minor League Free Agents. So nothing special or out of the ordinary it's always special it's just it's not more special than usual but is it about family ben like the past series is in a way in a way yeah it's about family so we are the same trio that drafted last year and just to recap painful as it is for some of us, Ben Clemens made his debut in the minor league free agent draft last year, and he had a roaring start.

He came out of the gate with the second best performance in any minor league free agent draft. The only other time a drafter did so well, he was by the rays shortly after that has not happened to ben thus far which is nice because we still get to i love how you are praising him and giving me a panic attack simultaneously as if me losing wasn't bad enough double duty yeah geez nope ben is still on the staff at photographs he's still doing podcasts at least for now we'll see if he has another amazing performance i just i don't know that he'll be able to remain unclaimed this is like the minor league free agent draft of of front office talent this podcast basically front office people are listening to this thinking maybe i could pluck one of these podcasters away and it'll just be a

an undervalued talent that is what we're doing. So I'll just kind of calibrate everyone's expectations, remind everyone what we're doing here, not why we're doing it. I don't know the answer to that, but we've been doing it every year since 2014. And the purpose here is to draft minor league free agents who we think will get major league playing time in the upcoming season. And that is all that matters. We count plate appearances and batters faced, either or, or combined in some cases. And the person who drafts the minor league free agents who combined accrue the most major league playing time in 2023 will win this draft. So they don't have to be good at playing baseball necessarily. They have to be good enough to get to the majors.

It doesn't matter what they do once they're there, except to the extent that playing well helps them get more playing time. But they could be terrible. As long as they stick on a roster and get played appearances or batters faced, it counts for our purposes. a roster and get played appearances or batters faced, it counts for our purposes. And we always have to try to remind everyone and ourselves what a minor league free agent is, which can be confusing. In most cases, it's just a player who has been on a minor league roster for six seasons in the same organization. And this is just sort of an escape valve. It's like the rule five draft, basically. It's like if you're buried in the minors somewhere, this is one way you can get out and get an opportunity somewhere else where maybe you aren't blocked. There are some wrinkles to that though, because there are a lot of players who are minor league free agents who have been

big leaguers and in many cases were big leaguers in the most recent season. So there are multiple ways that you can become a minor league free agent. So if you were in the majors, but then you were removed from the 40-man roster, maybe you were designated for assignment or you were non-tendered, and then you could clear waivers and your club could try to send you to the minors and you get outrighted, but you can refuse to be reassigned to the minors and then become a free agent if you have a few years of MLB service time. So you can also accept the assignment and then become a free agent after the season. The important thing is that there are several hundred players who become minor league free

agents every offseason. There were 613 this year that were declared minor league free agents as of November 11th. That was when Baseball America published a list. That's what we go by. If players are on that list, they're eligible to be drafted. If not, they're not. And once you're a minor league free agent, you are basically the same sort of free agent as any other major league free agent. You're all free agents who can sign anywhere for any kind of contract. It's just that if you're a minor league free agent, you took a different route to becoming a free agent. And also, you're typically a less desirable player and generally will sign a minor league deal, although not in all cases. Have I covered essentially what we're doing here?

Yeah. Okay. Have I covered essentially what we're doing here? Yeah. Okay. And just to recap our past drafts and sort of set expectations here. So we draft 10 players each and one year we drafted 11 players each for some reason. So we have in total drafted 223 players over our previous nine years of drafting. The average plate appearance plus combined batter's faced total is 605. So that's sort of the baseline for any given drafter.

That's what you're going for, basically. And the success rate is basically a coin flip. I think we've maybe gotten a bit better over time, but of the 223 minor league free agent draft picks, 102 have received major league playing time in the following season. So that's 46% success rate. So we're not expecting a lot here, essentially. You're hoping for an average of roughly 60 plate appearances or batters faced from each of your draft picks. That would get you to an average overall performance.

And if you hit on half of your picks, basically that's par for the course. And typically you're not getting superstars here either. Not that it matters, but a listener, Evan, he made a painstaking spreadsheet of all of the picks that we've all made over the years in sort of a dynasty draft format to look at how much war they have accrued since they were picked. And the leader from all the minor league free agent drafts, if you look at the war since they were drafted, going by baseball reference war, it was my pick of Scott Barlow in 2018. Oh, no. Has amassed 7.1 baseball reference war since then.

Pretty good. If you go by FedGraph's war, then it's almost a tie between 2019 picks. Sam picked Dylan Moore. I picked John Birdie. 5.3 and 5.2 war, respectively, since then. Some decent players, you know? It's like Birdie and G-Man Choi has been picked. Just like names you would recognize, but not particularly good or accomplished players. Is there a best single season at one? That, I don't know. I bet you it's not very high. It's probably not very high. No. So we go

through this exercise every year and it's high stakes because we return to it throughout the coming year and the coming season. And it's a nice little thrill when one of our players gets called up to the majors and we get to gloat and we get bragging rights and we get to gloat, and we get bragging rights, and we get to root for these players who otherwise probably would not be on our radars at all. So it's a nice little ongoing storyline. But Ben completely cleaned our clocks last year. That's the upshot. It was a commanding performance by Ben, who he amassed 1,440 combined batters faced and played appearances whereas I got only 422 and Meg got 56 yeah a better year for Meg or crushing it or for either Meg or or I frankly

that's generous of you Ben yeah I'll put us together there's a big difference between us but an even bigger difference between ben and me and you so we were both below average and a further indignity we were both beaten by the control group of a randomly selected 10 players last year so that is rough to avoid that at least if if we could do better than that that would That's got to be the best year for the control group. Yes. There have only been two years for the control group so far. It wasn't started.

I feel like the number of minor league free agents is such. There's 613. Yeah. And not half of them are legitimate potential major leaguers. Like, way fewer. Lots of these guys don't play baseball again. Even the ones, yeah, we're cherry picking the best or the ones we think are the best or most likely to get playing time and we're still 50 50 or a little i mean i think you could do that control group a lot

of times and not get anywhere near what it did this time yes i think so so we were bad but also the control group had a great year hopefully hopefully an outlier year so we'll find out and it only picked correctly on two guys it just so happens that one of them was spencer watkins We had a great year. Hopefully, hopefully an outlier year. So we'll find out. And it only picked correctly on two guys. It just so happens that one of them was Spencer Watkins, who made 20 starts in the Orioles rotation. So that'll do it. Anyway, playing time is the coin of the realm. So we're not necessarily going for prospects or ceilings here. Not that there's that much of either in the draft pool here.

But yeah, there are some guys who are young and you think, okay, maybe he's still got a little prospect pedigree and could make something of himself at some point. But all we care about is 2023 here. So sometimes you're better off going for the high floor, low ceiling, unexciting, whoever utility guy or seventh guy in a bullpen or backup catcher or whatever it is, there tends to be a lot of that. We still have not fully studied the patterns here and what works and what doesn't, but we wing it as always. So what are your levels of confidence this year? Well, here's the thing, Ben. I have adopted in this project a strategy of self-preservation and protection. Allow me to explain what I mean by that. I have been known to dramatically over prepare for the minor league free agent draft. And my mileage has really varied on that, you know? Like, I have spent a lot of time and reaped very little reward.

And so I thought to myself, like, what is the amount of time and preparation that I can put into this? And be honoring the exercise, right? Because it's the thing we look forward to. It's an episode our listeners look forward to. And so I don't want to, you know, not take it seriously. But I also know that I'm not likely to win. Or I don't want to, you know, not take it seriously. But I also know that I'm not likely to win or I don't feel confident that I'll win. And I've made my peace with that. You know, like I think that the doing of the thing is where the honor in it lies. And so I said to myself,

what is the amount of prep you need to do again to honor the exercise? And then don't do one minute more than that. It was like when I, Ben Clemens, this might resonate with you. You know, I don't remember what my exact percentage was, but I had a fair amount of wiggle room in terms of passing when I took my series seven. Oh, sure. You have to get a 70 to pass. Is that right? You have to.

Yes. And I cleared that bar with some room to spare. Not in like a weird savant way. It's also a stupid test. But like, you know, I cleared that bar with some room to spare. Not in like a weird savant way. It's also a stupid test. But like, you know, I cleared it. Yeah. And then I was told by my MD that that was silly because it suggested that I had prepared more than I needed to.

And so I kind of brought that same energy to this. So I, you know, in previous years, I collated a bunch of things. What they did war-wise this year, what they're projected to do. No, no a bunch of things what they did war wise this year what they're projected to do no no that's not what I did this year I took the list and I took some transaction data and I merged those things and I did a little bit of like assessing uh and I moved some guys around on a prep list and then I was like I'm done now I I recognize many of these names and uh some of them I don't. I made determinations based on the team, perhaps, that they've signed a minor league contract with and what my estimation of that team is.

There's no steamer in this sheet this year. I didn't do that. I'm going to series sevens it and then go from there. All right. Yeah. I woke up at 8 a.m. my time this morning and pulled up the webpage that Meg sent me yesterday. And I Googled some names on it. I was telling Ben before this, and I guess you too, Meg, that last year I just prepared a ton. Yeah. Because I was like, I want to do well on this.

I've never done this before. And I guess we'll see how much that preparation helped because I have done very little this year. Yeah. You would think that having had your strategy last year works spectacularly well, you would want to do the same thing again. So are you overconfident or is it just that you did so well that you feel like you've proved yourself, you belong, and now you can slack off? No, it's 100% that I got back from traveling to see my family over the holidays yesterday and didn't really feel like doing it. I don't know if your priorities are really in order here, Ben.

I mean, I know it's the holidays and you want to see family and everything, but this is the minor league free agent draft. Come on. But Ben Lindberg, here's the thing to remember about Ben Clemens' success last year, which is, you know, and I'm not faulting you for this at all, Ben Clemens. I'm saying, like, you know, you won handedly.

Like, he didn't win because he found, like, a deep sleeper none of us had heard of, right? Like, he was largely carried by guys who we know and recognize. I just picked people I knew. As it turns out, I researched 600 names last year and then picked 10 players I don't know you heard of right so I think you know I'm not saying he's gonna win I'm not saying he's gonna lose but I just don't know that this is like a real study of the approach you know we still have process questions related to the minor league free agent draft I guess is what I'm saying yeah definitely true yeah that's a good point yeah Ben, Ben's picks last year. So he ended up with Jose Iglesias, who was the consensus number one on the board. And he had the first pick and it was just clear that Iglesias was going to go. But he would have won handily without Jose Iglesias. But even so, Jose Iglesias, Mike Alfranco, Ty Block, Anthony Bemboom, and Christian Bethencourt really paid off for you.

Christian Bethencourt almost had two war. I wonder if he's the – He might be. He might be. He played in a playoff game. Yeah, he sure did. So those were basically brand names by minor league free agent draft standards. Yeah.

Yeah. Well, I've done, I guess, my typical level of preparation. I don't know if I overprepare or underprepare, but I basically did the same thing that I typically do, which is I go to the Baseball America list. jump out at me and I'm surprised to see them there. And if so, that means maybe they're a good candidate. It is surprising just how much the major league names on the list jump out at me. And sometimes I'll be surprised like so-and-so hasn't even been in the big league since 2017 or something, but it's almost like they're in bold in my brain. Like once you've been a big leaguer and I've heard of you, then it leaps off the page at me, even if you haven't been there for a while. And there are quite a few names on there who really have not been there for a while and they're still hanging around. And after I do that little culling, then there are various other sources that I consult.

And I'll keep my methods proprietary for the moment just in case they pay off for me. But I have a draft board with 53 names on it right now. Oh my God. Yeah, which is fewer names than Ben had on his board last year, but many more names than he has on his board this year. So maybe it's the sweet spot. And I don't really have them ordered. I probably should have ordered them in addition to putting them on here. I guess I put some in bold, but I don't really have a perfect prep list here because I want to preserve some spontaneity when it comes to the minor league free agent draft. So I will almost certainly be drafting people from this list, but in what order, I don't know. We will find out when I'm under the gun.

I think that this illustrates some key differences in what order, I don't know. We will find out when I'm under the gun. I think that this illustrates some key differences in our personalities, right? Because you view the spontaneity of the prep list or lack thereof as like a, you know, a thrill, an exciting little adventure you're about to embark on on this Thursday morning. And I do a prep list and then as soon as I have to deviate from it immediately break down and panic and so I'm just saying I think that your anxiety levels are probably at a healthier register than mine like that note's coming in at a better pitch

than mine is maybe, Ben I really wanted to say you guys have lists? but I'm not trying to work off that one webpage it's just too many names in no order yeah, it's a lot of names there's so much scrolling you know so no I just added a name to our list

all right well Ben had the first pick last year because he was a first time guest but he should probably have the last pick this year because he did too well and we have to punish him for that so should we just go in order of finish in 2022

and make you get the first pick? Okay. I'm so excited about that. It makes me feel really warm. I don't have a sense of dread because of the pressure that's attendant on this. Do you all feel like there is a clear first pick the way there was?

No, I don't. No, I don't. I don't. Maybe I'm wrong. I don't feel like there is a clear first pick the way there was no i don't know i don't yeah okay i don't maybe i'm wrong i don't feel like there is i am gonna make the first pick and with the first pick i'm gonna do this which is to say that i am going to select blake perkins oh yeah that was my first pick okay so maybe there is a consensus first pick. So Blake Perkins was in the Yankees system. He is now with Milwaukee. He signed a big league deal with the Brewers and was like a 40 future value prospect on our recently published Brewers list. And so that gives me some amount of confidence in him.

I also am heartened by, you know, what one might say is an outfield in Milwaukee that is perhaps primed for some degree of either underperformance or injury. You know, they are famously now without Hunter Renfro, who is going to start a variety act with Mike Trout in Los Angeles. So I'm looking at, he's projected right now per our depth charts for a 211-301-363 line. You know, that's not great. That 88 WRC plus, it's below average, I'm here to say. 0.1 wins, but also he's a minor league free agent with a big league deal on a team that might end up needing outfield depth and he's performed okay-ish in the minors. So Blake Perkins, come on down. Yep.

That's the most I'm going to say about any of these picks because at some point I'm going to be like, I like this name, so he's going to be one of my picks. Yeah. Yeah, Blake Perkins was not really someone I was aware of prior to my prep year, but once someone gets a major league contract. Yeah, really rock it to the top.

Yeah, only a few of those guys this year. I think fewer than usual. And of course, not everyone has signed yet. Minor league free agents will continue to sign into the new year. But generally, I think the guys who get major league deals, they sign early because everyone's after them, which is why they can command a major league contract, which does not guarantee that they will be big leaguers or productive big leaguers. But the fact that teams felt that they had to offer that and were willing to offer that, that speaks well of them. So I think between that and I suppose his minor league performance and also, as you said, some of the positional openings potentially.

It's a good pick. And there are only a couple guys we can say got major league deals. So I assume that they're going to come off the board pretty quickly here. Yep. Speaking of which, I guess I will take one. And I don't think that this player is the best bet to get a lot of playing time in 2023. But I think if he works out, it could be a fairly high ceiling pick and also I am sure that Ben would take him at some point if I did not take him soon both because he got a major league contract and because he got a contract from the team that Ben works for and that is Guillermo Zuniga, who signed a major league contract with the Cardinals. And just like looking at the replies to the tweet that the Cardinals sent about signing Zuniga to a major league deal, a lot of them were like, who and why? And I can see why you would say that, because he has not pitched above AA.

because he has not pitched above AA, and he hasn't even pitched particularly well in AA, at least going by ERA. He was in the Dodgers system. Prior to that, he was in Atlanta's system. He is actually one of the players who was freed and declared a free agent because of Atlanta's international signing scandal. And I guess maybe he is the most promising, perhaps, of the players remaining from that scandal. But he has not pitched above AA. So he's been with the Dodgers ever since leaving the Braves. And the thing about him is that he's got good stuff. And he's got the build. And he is 6'5". He's a right-handed pitcher. He's from Columbia, and he throws quite hard. And Eric Langenhagen, back in May, in mentioning him on the Dodgers prospect list,

wrote that he is likely to trickle into someone's big league bullpen within the next year or two. So I hope that that is the case and that it is next year. year or two so i hope that that is the case and that it is next year but eric gave his fastball a 70 on the 20 to 80 scouting scale along with an above average slider and uh he was 25 command yeah there's not much of that but there's that piece yeah he's just a power pitcher and baseball america said he probably has the best stuff on the minor league free agent market so he throws like upper 90s he's got good spin rates he's got a change up that's pretty good and also a good sweeping slider and apparently he can command the slider but not so much anything else but at least stuff wise he seems to have like three above average or better major league quality pitches,

and he's 24 years old still. He just turned 24 in October. So again, like this would be a great long-term play if we were just drafting guys for lifetime playing time, not as solid a play for 2023. We just, I have to hope here that the Cardinals can harness his command, like he can miss bats, but he walks too many guys. So not only does he have to get through AAA or leapfrog AAA, but he's got to get the control under control

and do that at the big league level. But he was closing games and saving games in Tulsa. And the fact that he was with the Dodgers and still could not completely get it together is somewhat worrisome. But another change of scenery. And obviously, teams were very interested in his services because he got a big league deal right out of the gate. Yeah, I mean, it seems good.

All right, I am up. I am going to complete the trilogy, draft the other guy with any type of major league deal. Justin Garza does a split deal with the Angels. That's what it is. Yeah, see, it's a non-guaranteed split contract, which means that it prescribes different salaries for if he's in the majors or if he's in the minors. Yeah, I believe Perkins has a similar deal.

That could be true. I don't know the specifics of it. Yeah. But yeah, Justin Garza, he's a man who plays baseball. He has a major league contract offered to him who appears on his list. Those are three qualities, all of which I care about greatly. In terms of his actual, you know, bona fides, he's been in the cleveland organization his entire career

that's a good place for pitchers and he pitched a little bit for them in the majors in 2021 and was not particularly good but he's been just like completely acceptable in the minors he between 2021 and 2022 he's pitched i don't know 70 innings of minor league baseball with a sub four ERA, it looks like, and strikes out at a decent amount of people. He has, like anyone probably on this list, either deficiencies in command or stuff. And for him, it's command. So he walks a ton. But the Angels don't have the best bullpen in baseball. And he has a split contract that suggests that he could have done better than a minor league contract. So yeah, I like betting on the Angels bullpen needing more arms,

particularly given that they're a team that always needs more arms. Yes. Yeah. Some of the guys in their bullpen might end up being starters for them, and then that could bump them up the list. Yeah, I mean, if I get 50 batters faced, I'd be overjoyed. Yeah. I mean, you should aim higher for that, I guess, with your first pick, because if the average pick gets 60- I think this is going to be a down year.

Oh, really? Okay. You think it's a foul free agent crop, huh? Yeah, I could buy that. Yeah, I mean, looking at him, it's kind of like with Zuniga, the performance hasn't been spectacular or anything. I mean, he was in AAA, not AA, but he was not dominant there. But obviously, he doesn't have to be super dominant probably to get some innings in the Angels' bullpen. So, yeah, he was going to go quickly. Getting a big league deal is not a guarantee of anything. I remember we took some guys who got big league deals last year who didn't get any playing time or got very little playing time.

They didn't do one lick of anything. They didn't do no licks. Yeah. Nick Plummer was one. Yeah. He did end up coming up to the Mets, and he hit a big home run, but he didn't hit other than that and didn't last that long. Was Brett Sullivan, he was your first pick last year.

That must have been a big league contract guy. I don't even remember, but no playing time from him. So yeah, we're clutching at straws here because it's hard to find these guys. And this is just one signal that, oh, okay, this is someone special in some way, but still far from a lock. Is it my turn? Yes, it is. Okay.

Still far from a lock. Is it my turn? Yes, it is. Okay. With my second pick, I am taking Casey Sadler, who is returning to the Seattle Mariners on a minor league deal. Sadler did not pitch at all in 2022 after having a pretty superlative, and we should note kind of aberrant compared to the rest of his career, 2021 season with the Mariners.

And you might think to yourself like, hey, the Mariners, don't they famously have like a pretty good bullpen? Wasn't that sort of part of their whole thing? And I'd say to you, yeah, they do. But we've already covered how every team needs more pitchers. And they seem very excited to have Casey Sadler back. Now, some of that is no doubt that Jerry DiPoto is hoping that you don't remember how little activity they had otherwise.

But I think that he might end up being a useful contributor to them at some point, assuming that he comes back from the shoulder surgery that derailed his 2022 season. So, Casey Sadler, come on down. I wanted to pick him with my first pick. Did you really? I thought there was a 100% chance that someone would pick Garza. Yeah. And there was at least a decent chance that you would pick Sadler before it came back to me. Yeah.

I think that he will end up getting some innings for them, you know, assuming that his shoulder is not like totally toast. But yeah, here we are. Yeah. Right. Well, I considered taking this next guy with my first pick, too. I'm pretty high on him.

That doesn't mean anything. It could be anyone. It could be, but it might not mean. It could mean a lot. All right. Well, I am loading up on big pitchers with big arms here in the back of bullpens. I guess that's a relief for you. Maybe I'm not taking the guy you want.

I don't know. I'm taking Angel Perdomo. all right so dang hell is even bigger than guillermo zuniga he's six eight and he's a lefty and he was signed by the pirates these are all really promising things he is uh he's 28 he's a former futures game guy game guy, and he's got good numbers. So he was with the Rays mostly last year and a little bit with the Brewers. He was with the Brewers previously and also with the Blue Jays before that. So the fact that the Brewers and the Rays, who have a lot of personnel in common and maybe evaluate players in some similar ways.

The fact that they liked what they saw is good, I guess. And also, he struck out 40% of the hitters he faced in AAA last year. So that is promising. So he can clearly miss bats, which I like to see. And he's also got good stuff. Like he doesn't throw super hard. He's kind of average velocity-ish, maybe good for a lefty. I don't know.

But he's got good deception, and I like deception guys. So the fact that he hides the ball a long time, and he's very big, and he gets good extension. So his fastball, which is more like 93 to 95, it looks maybe like it's more upper 90s. So that's good. And like Zuniga, he has some control problems. All of these minor league free agents are players with warts. That is why they're available.

That's why they're minor league free agents. players with warts. That is why they're available. That's why they're minor league free agents. And he had some injury issues, I believe, last year, but I don't think it was anything super serious. And he's looked really dominant at times, like down the stretch for Durham last year. I think he was the only lefty on the staff. And over the last few months, yeah, he struck out 48 batters over 29 and two-thirds innings against 12 walks, a 160 opponent batting average, and, you know, for a lefty, good spin rates, good velo, good slider, a change-up, etc. It's sort of a classic reliever profile, but you look at video of him, and he just, he looks like he could be really good because he's huge and he's a lefty

and i have high hopes for angel perdomo with the pirates who can uh i guess he's even bigger than o'neill cruz so that's something yeah yeah like that pick yep it was on my list all right right i will pick another large player uh from mil reis. He doesn't have a deal anywhere, and I kind of think might sign overseas. Yeah, I was thinking a few times I had a great disappointment when I thought I had a real find, and then I looked him up, and oh, he went to NPB, or oh, he went to Korea. It's like, oh, well, I guess those teams saw something, too, because it's sort of the profile that leads to an attractive minor league free agent.

Like maybe they've got good power or something, but not so much plate discipline or like maybe they're kind of a quad A guy. And so international leagues come calling and give them guaranteed playing time and salary and they go over there. But better to find that out before you draft them than after. So I guess for your sake maybe most of the the international signings have happened already hopefully for you i think so i mean i don't think i have to describe reyes too much people know who he is he can clearly be an

above average major league hitter he was for four straight seasons uh he's defensively limited but there's universal dh now and he was just incredibly bad in 2022, so there's no guarantee that anyone wants to sign him, but I don't know. There's 30 teams in baseball? That's so many. One of them could probably use this guy. Yeah. And I think he has the best

single tool of anyone on this list, just his power. Right. Yeah. So I'll give it a shot. He could easily have 500 plate appearances and he could easily have zero yep i think he's a very high variance pick as opposed to the guys we took in the first round who seem fairly likely likely yeah yeah yeah i think going for the high variance guys makes some sense because you want to hit big like if you if you really strike it rich with one player then that's a huge leg up i'm always torn do i want to hit big like if you if you really strike it rich with one player then that's a huge

leg up i'm always torn do i want to go for someone who like could get zero or could get 500 or do i want to try to go for someone who's like consistently been in a bullpen or been a utility guy and you can kind of pencil them in for 50 or 100 plate appearances or something but you know there's almost no way that he's going to get more than that. And like, is it safe enough that it's worth just taking the gimme? Is there such a thing as a gimme in the minor league free agent draft? Probably not. So I like going for the ceiling and I would have taken Reyes soon if you hadn't. Okay, my turn.

Yes. I'm going to do something that happens at least once one of these drafts where I'm like, is this guy really a minor league agent? Because I want to check. I just want to check and be sure. Okay, yes, I'm sure now. I'm taking Cole Tucker. Cole Tucker signed a minor league contract with the Rockies.

They have a not very good baseball team and are known to give less run than they should, but some amount of run to like recently relevant big leaguers or prospects. And I'm sure that they hope that Chris Bryant plays, you know, any more games than he did last year. But I guess we don't know for sure that he will. And I've heard of Cole Tucker, you know? I've heard of him. Am I making this up? Was he on the Diamondbacks last year?

He was on the Diamondbacks last year. I feel like I saw him in a minor league game. Yeah, you might have. Okay. That seems right. Because he seems like a pirate to me, but then I... He was a pirate for, you know, kind of a long time. That was where he debuted. Yeah, okay.

He did go to the... Yeah, okay. I have it right. kind of a long time. That was where he debuted. Yeah, okay, he did go to the, yeah, okay. I haven't read it. Yeah, and I'd like to note that, like, he has been worth negative two wins in his big league career, you know? So, like, this one might not work out for me. But, again, I have heard of him, so here we are. Yeah, it's good for any of these guys to have a war, even if they're actually wins below replacement.

If they have something in that column, that means they've been a big leaguer, which is fairly rare or rare enough, at least among recent major leaguers. All right. Well, I'm already at the point in my draft where I'm just going to start freestyling. Oh, boy. I don't know where I'm going to go next. I don't know where I'm going to go next. I've got another few outfielders on my board who are kind of in that Fran Mill Reyes camp of having had some big league time

and seeming like they could get some more. And they're all kind of roughly in the same category for me. I guess I will take... I guess I'll take Victor Reyes. No. Okay. All right. That's a great positive reinforcement. I love when they're just moans and lamentations whenever I take a pick. That's a great reinforcement. Makes me feel like I made a good pick. But he was in the big leagues and has been in the big leagues every season since 2018, and not just for cups of coffee either. He has gotten 200 plus plate appearances in every season and topped out at 336 this past season for the Tigers, and he has consistently been a slightly

below league average hitter, which is pretty darn good by minor league free agent standards. He's not particularly defensively gifted, I don't think, and doesn't steal a lot of bases or anything. So it's not like he has other great tools and mostly he plays corners, although he has played some center. But just the fact that he's been a consistent big leaguer, he is only 28 years old, and the White Sox signed him and invited him to spring training. So all of those things seem fairly promising, right? I would be very happy to get another 200 to 300 plate appearances of slightly below league average offensive production from Victor Reyes. Curse you, Carlos Perez. Oh, yeah.

I'm so honorable. I should have. No. Our listeners won't know what we're talking about because Dylan caught the whole Carlos Perez section. But basically, Ben tried to draft off board and we intervened. And then it bit us right in the ass. Yes. Well, not you because I was taking Reyes. Okay. and then it bit us right in the ass yes well not you because i was taking okay well it bit you right in the ass maybe i'm taking your next pick i know

this is why i'm saying it might end up really haunting me yeah there was carlos paris confusion there are multiple carlos paris anyway well i i am going to take a just, I think, worst version of Victor Reyes in many ways. Jake Marisnyk. Yeah. Jake Marisnyk has not signed with anybody. And Jake Marisnyk is 31 and going to turn 32 before, actually, on opening day, I think, next year. Oh. You know, that's nice.

Happy birthday, Jake. He's not on any team, but he did play a little bit with the pirates last year he was good defensively like he always is that's just a skill that he has he's a good defender he played decently in 2021 and he played a little bit in 2020 and he played in 2019 i don't think he's exciting but i'm pretty sure that there aren't you know 120 better outfielders than Jake Marisnyk in baseball. And if there are, then he's probably like in the 120s. So I think he'll get some playing time somewhere in 2023. I just think he's good enough to.

So I don't think he's awesome, but I do think he is probably going to play in the majors. Yep. He has not failed to get major league playing time since he debuted in 2013. not failed to get major league playing time since he debuted in 2013. So obviously that streak has to come to an end at some point, but it hasn't yet. So there's a percentage play, I guess, in betting in a 11th year of big league time for Jake Marisnyk. Good pick. Okay. I want to be very candid that my next pick, at least 50% of the desire to pick this player is just the name. There's like that. Some of this is just the name.

I'm owning it. I'm taking Hobie Harris. Oh, yeah. He's on my list. Hobie Harris, who signed a minor league deal with the Nationals, famously a bad team that might end up calling him up. He's bounced around a bit. He's one of these guys who managed to make within the space of 12 months a Blue Jays prospect list and then a Brewers prospect list because of the changes.

He is another one of these 70 fastball, 30, 35 command guys. He's's just like a, a 35 plus, you know, he had a 204 ERA in AAA last year. You might say, that's great. And then you look at his FIP and it's worse. And you're like, well, you know, he walked 4.75 batters per nine. And that's, you know, that's not a great number when you're, when you're really looking at it. But, um, again, was signed to a team that is going to be pretty bad next year and has, you know, at least a good fastball. So Hobie Harris. Hobie. There should be more Hobies. Why has Hobie fallen out of fashion as a name? It is such a, that's such a nice name to say. Hobie. Hobie Harris. Really good. Yeah. Good minor league numbers last year.

My eye was caught. Harris. Really good. Yeah. Good minor league numbers last year. My eye was caught. Alright. Well, I guess while we're doing a run on mediocre fourth outfield types, I will also take someone who is

probably a less good version of Victor Reyes, and that is Oscar Mercado. So, Oscar Mercado, he is now back with the Cardinals after having been with Cleveland the Cardinals originally drafted him in 2013 in the second round so I guess they still like what they see and he's been in the big leagues with Cleveland each year going back to 2019 and 2019 was was a promising rookie season he was almost a full-time player all season and he

got rookie of the year votes and was like a league average hitter and it's basically been downhill from there both in terms of playing time and performance so not super optimistic about him but he's back with the team that drafted him he is young He just turned 28 this month and has been good enough that it seems like he could continue to get chances. And I don't know, I guess the Cardinals outfield could kind of go either way. I don't know exactly how far down the depth chart he is at this point, but it's not inconceivable that he could be called up and get some playing time at some point this season. So yeah, Oscar Mercado. Yep. Yeah. I like that one. I have no clue how likely Oscar Mercado is to play for the Cardinals, but they liked him a lot. So I always like those

ones where you pick the guy going back to the team that likes him. I am going to take another, I hope high likelihood bet and take James Norwood. Yeah. Who signed a minor league deal with the Yankees. James Norwood is a stuff first, I'd say, reliever. He's got very good stuff. And if you followed baseball via watching videos that Driveline posted of players, I don't actually know if they have any of James Norwood. But he's that kind of guy.

He's got, in my opinion, pretty electric stuff and sometimes knows where it's going. Not frequently. So it really is a Driveline video is what you're saying. There's really a lot of similarities there. He pitched for the Phillies this year and lost a spot in the Phillies bullpen, but that's actually not so bad. They were totally reasonable in 2022, as much flack as they get generally. And he lost his spot because he had an 8 ERA, and that's bad. But he had a 3.63 FIP, 3.75 XFIP.

He struck out, I think, 26% of batters he faced. He looked totally reasonable. He just walked a billion guys and gave up a 420 BABIP. And so he bounced around a little bit. I don't think that he's necessarily going to be like the best reliever in the Yankees bullpen, but this seems like the kind of guy they can work with. And it also seems like the kind of guy who, even if he never improves, like even a little bit, can get major league batters out. And so we'll probably just soak up some them not wanting to give their good relievers back to back type deals once or twice.

Yep, that's a good one. Yeah, he was the peripherals were better than the ERA, as I recall, and also just good stuff. And the Yankees have a good track record with making useful bullpen arms. So good pick. Okay. Well, I'm going to take a chancy one. I'm doing a chancy one. Okay.

In part because it's not totally clear to me if he's actually resigned. Wait. I want to look. Wait. Wait. You got to redo a whole draft Wait, I want to look. Wait, wait. You got to redo a whole draft pick so I get to look at this. You know, I know that people don't care about this the way we do, but I'm just saying the transaction data could be better.

Not like at Fangraphs, although there are guys who slipped through the cracks at Fangraphs, but just in general, the way that it gets. Although there are guys who slipped through the cracks at Fangraphs, which is like in general the way that it gets. Why is it that we are not more invested in like updating the Wikipedia's, Wix-opedia of these guys, you know? Be the change you want to see. You can edit those yourself, you know. It's their community edited, famously. I know, but I like have other stuff I need to do.

Okay. You know, I got. There's a different website that you edit yes yeah right i already have a website okay i'm doing my part i'm doing my job okay i'm gonna take this guy anyway i don't know what the deal is everyone seems some people some people seem to think that brent honeywell has re-signed a minor league contract with the ace and that does not appear to be on the ace website but some people seem to think that is true I will say the following I feel bad for Brent Honeywell Brent Honeywell is supposed to have a very different career than the one he has had and he didn't because of injuries and we're all we all feel badly about that but I think that

he is the kind of guy where he'll probably catch on somewhere because people are going to be like, what if, what if we can rediscover like a little, you know, like a little spark? What if there's a little spark? I also think that having seen him pitch in Lido, I'm like, it's been okay. It hasn't been amazing, but it's, it's been all, it's been all right, you know? And so it could be, he could pitch, he could pitch no winnings anywhere. You know, he might go to Asia. He could do all sorts of things, but right now he's going to join my minor league free agent team.

Mm-hmm. All right. Well, I'm going to go with a catcher who is actually eligible for this draft, I believe, and that is Jackson Reitz. Ooh, yeah, he was on my list. So Jackson Reitz, that's spelled J-A-K-S-O-N, which I can't condone, but I'm still going to draft him. Yeah. So he is a 27 year old catcher. And I think he is one of the best hitters, or he's not even 27. He turns 27 in a few days. But he had one of the best offensive seasons of any minor league free agent. And I think if you set aside players

who have been signed internationally already, and the Carlos Perez, whom I didn't attempt to draft then I think he had the most home runs of anyone on the board and one of the highest OPSs on adjusted but he briefly got some big league time just got into two games with the Nationals in 2021 and then they let him go and then he was with the Brewers and I think he was supposed to be more of a glove first catcher, but he just exploded offensively this past season. And I do not know exactly how or why, but he hit 30 bombs in 2022, mostly in AAA with Milwaukee and also with the Royals and in AA with Milwaukee too. So he had a 934 OPS across those levels and organizations,

and the Royals have signed him to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. And they don't really have a set backup catcher at this point, someone backing up Salvi because MJ Melendez kind of occasionally catches but also plays other positions. And then I think the only other catcher on the 40-man is Freddie Fermin, who doesn't seem like he would be that tough to back up. So it seems like he's kind of like the second or third string guy right now, which could change before the season starts.

But a fairly young catcher who, as far as I know, has a pretty decent glove and also just had a 141 WRC plus in the minors this past season. That's a pretty solid pick if I do say so myself. Confident. Yeah. Not on my list because I did not know who that was. Good for you. That does not

feel good for me. Good for you. Didn't get that far down. Oh, no. I am going to take, why not? I'll take Kristen Stewart. I've been wondering what's going on with Kristen Stewart because he's pretty good you know like he's not a great player and he hasn't played in the majors since 2020 but

he played for the boston triple a franchise this year and had a 364 on base percentage slugged 450 it's a 119 wrc plus that's like just completely reasonable. Previous year, he had 340 plate appearances for the Tigers AAA team and 127 WRC+. He's a power first kind of guy, but he's played some of the major leagues like some other guys we talked about. He has negative two war as a major leaders. Yeah. yeah look i'm not picking all stars or anything but i feel like he might catch on somewhere and he has the power first skill that feels like if he starts off a little bit hot then he might get 300 plate appearances i don't think it's likely but i don't know like i can't all be jackson reitz's so yeah right like you know some people spell jackson with a a C for one thing. Okay. Well, I'm trying to decide if I want to go off board.

And in a high stakes way, because I hadn't previously included this person on my list as like a pref guy. And I'm discovering that he had elbow issues this year. And so it's like, how bad are those? I don't know, but not so bad to prevent the Kansas City Royals from reportedly signing him to a minor league contract. And so I'm taking my second name pick

and then I'll be done with name picks. Are you ready? Yes. Cody Poteet. Like what a name. That's the name. What a name that is. He played for the Marlins.

You know, he's had some big that is. He played for the Marlins. He's had some big league run. He was not very good, but he was a big leaguer for a little while. He might have a busted elbow, but he is going to play for the Kansas City Royals. I don't know how much that's going to matter.

I'm taking Cody Poteet. Did he have a FIP in the high force i mean he did but his era was lower than that is his fastball a 45 i mean sure yeah the slider and change up are a little bit better command is fine so i don't know we're just gonna see where cody poteet takes us mostly because i really enjoy saying Poteet. Poteet. Is it concerning that the Marlins couldn't make him better, and one of the things they're good at is pitch design?

I mean, one could raise these concerns, but also his name is Cody Poteet. Yep. I think my loose approach to this is I'm at least having a lot more fun. I'm less stressed than I usually am. So it's something, you know? Good. Good.

We're here to have fun. Yeah, we're here to have fun. And also to really have a high stakes competition that will come back to haunt us. Yeah. All right. I'm going to take Travis Blankenhorn. Yeah. So Travis Blankenhorn, not a bad name there either. Terrific name. He was with

the Mets this past season, and he's been with really a bunch of organizations over the past few seasons. He was with the Twins. He was with the Dodgers. He was with the Mariners, but most recently with the Mets. And he's only 26 years old, and he's hit fairly well. You know, he's been an above-average bat by AAA standards, and he has a lot of positional flexibility. He doesn't play the premium defensive positions. He hasn't played center. He hasn't played short except for a couple games, but he plays everywhere else. So he plays a lot of second and third, and he can play outfield corners if you need him to. He can play some first, whatever you want. Travis Blankenhorn will do it. He will answer the call. And he was signed to a minor league deal with an

invitation to spring training by the Nationals. So that bodes well, because when I look at the Nationals depth chart at the positions that Travis Blankenhorn plays, I am not impressed. And looking at the roster resource depth chart for the Nationals, he's one of the highest names on, I guess, Jason has him on the outfield listing in the minors there. So it seems like he has a decent chance to catch on as a utility guy, given his competition and his recent minor league performance and his youth. And he hits the ball hard and he cut down on his strikeout rate a bit this past season. So there you have him, Travis Blankenhorn. Blankenhorn. Sounds like a Looney Tunes character, you know?

Yes. But I might be combining Foghorn Leghorn with other stuff. Ben, you're up. Alright, I will take another very similar player, I feel like, Steven Piscotty. I've been doing

a lot of picking these outfielders who seem to be acceptable. Steven Piscotty is a completely defensible major leaguer for many years. 2022 was not one of those years. He was, in fact, quite bad last year. But I just still kind of think he can do enough to bounce around. And you don't really need to be that great to get some chance in the majors, I feel like,

as a guy who's formerly been good in the majors. And Piscotty, in fact, hit just fine in the minors in 2022. He just, you know, he didn't play very much for the A's and was bad. And he's actually been bad in 2021 too. But I think he's got a decent chance to sign with a bad team, have a pretty good April, and then just be there the whole time as a result. Yep. I was considering taking him in for much the same reason.

Still unsigned, but he'll land somewhere if he wants to. Yeah. It seems likely that he will be a guy who does a thing, you know, somewhere. Will he be playing baseball? I mean, we're going to find out, I guess. Okay. Let's see. I think that I'm going to pick a guy who's, once again, a Washington national.

I'm going to go to the outfield here. I don't feel good about this pick. You know, like I feel like the nationals of it all. It's really maybe doing a lot of work here. No, I'm not doing it. I'm changing my mind. I'm doing it. I didn't say the name, so there's no pick on the board. No, I'm not doing it. I'm changing my mind. I'm doing it. I didn't say the name,

so there's no pick on the board. No, no pick. Yep, pick an audible. Less erratic in my normal day-to-day life than I am on these drafts. I feel like I'm creating a portrait of myself that's largely out of sync. I'm going to take Daniel Zamora,

who is a left-handed pitcher, who signed a minor league contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates. So Ben Lindbergh, we're going to duel. We're going to duel. Yeah, unhelp Perdomo versus Zamora. We're going to duel. I think that Perdomo was the better pick, as evidenced by him being higher on my draft board that you guys can't see.

And I will say that Zamora's numbers in the minors last year like they were they were okay they were they were terrible he had a 386 era he had a 420 fit which you know that's not as good and his last big league action in 2021 which was for the seattle mariners didn't go great but it was 4.1 innings like what do you do you, you know, that's not anything. He strikes some guys out. He, you know, he's going to be a pirate. So we're going to duke it out. And so I'm taking Daniel Zamora.

Also a good name, you know. I feel like lefties just, they get chances if they are reasonable. I mean, if you're the Pirates, maybe you're like, maybe there's some cool Dodgers-ness in there. It's like a, it's basically like the the tyler anderson signing i can't think of any ways in which it's different all right well i'm gonna stick with the theme of picking players on subpar teams who we hope will get some playing time and i'm gonna take pablo reyes Yeah. So Pablo Reyes, he has been in the big leagues for the past few years with the Brewers. He originally was in the Pirate System, came up with the Pirates,

and has been with the Brewers for the past couple of years. And he has not hit in his big league time. He's got a total of 323 plate appearances and about an 80 OPS plus, which is not great, but he has continued to hit fairly well in the minors. So he had a 110 WRC plus in AAA for Milwaukee this past season. And Steamer thinks he is roughly an average major league hitter, which seems somewhat optimistic, but it does project him for a 97 WRC plus. And he has lots of positional flexibility. So he can play just about anywhere on the field and has done that. And he was signed by the A's. So that's good. He's got an invitation to spring training with the Oakland A's and they obviously don't have a lot of good

players and if anyone is good they will trade him and hopefully that will open up a spot for Pablo Reyes at some point in the coming season yeah that's the kind of pick that I like making which is a guy who's played in the major leagues yeah and I very much considered picking him for essentially all the reasons that you laid out. I'm glad you didn't. Thank you. Instead, I will take Pablo Reyes at home, I think. Derek Hill, who

there's some chance Meg was going to be picking. Derek Hill is an outfielder who is on a minor league deal with the Nationals. And the Nationals just don't really have much going on in terms of... Their farm system is much improved after last year. But that's all in top end names. They did not exactly suddenly become a deep minor league system. And they gave like 400 plate appearances to Mikel Franco last year. The team just doesn't quite have enough going on at the major league

level. And if you look at their projected outfield right now it's lane thomas victor robles alex call who like may or may not be good he could be but there's there's just not a lot holding good players back from passing these people jake alu is their projected dh he's kind of like a utility infielder seems like to me, more so than a DH. He's not really a power guy. Derek Hill isn't either, but Derek Hill's a great defender. And I don't know, like if he's going to lock his way

into 300 plate appearances, it's going to be on the Nationals. So I like the mix of team and player. And yeah, he's been a major leaguer before too. Something I always like. Yep. Yeah, I almost that was, I almost you know, I almost, but I didn't. But I almost. That was where I was going, but then I didn't.

So. Pablo Reyes is going to be competing for playing time with Tyler Wade. Oh. Yeah, he'll be conflicted. Oh, boy. Taylor Ward's really good. Are you in trouble there? All right.

Meg, you're up. I am up, aren't I? Well, here's what I am thinking I'm going to do. I love the way you stall it by time for every pick by just adding some additional clauses. It's like a little bit of seasoning you know it's like i like to put some some little i like to put some on it because what i'm going to do with the pick that i am about to make when i select a player it's the um what's the yankees pa guy's name who always had the number twice. Number two. Yeah. Yeah. Okay.

No, I'm going to do it. I'm going to take Garrett Williams. I'm taking Garrett Williams, who has recently been a Cardinal. He has not been a ranked prospect since 2018, which is always a good sign. It tends to suggest things are going well, particularly when you haven't debuted yet. So we'll be honest about that reality. His numbers at AA last year, they were fine. They weren't great.

They were fine. Struck out a bunch of guys, also walked some dudes. He got promoted to AAA, and they got less good. But here's the thing about Garrett Williams. Here's what he's got going for him. He's left-handed, and he's signed to a minor league deal with the oakland athletics and so he's now team meg he's on the meg team you know all right well i wish him well but not too well okay well for my next pick i think this is my my pick. I think that is correct. If I haven't lost track. No, you're right. I'm going to take the Jake Marisnyk of the infield, and that is Jonathan VR.

Ah, yeah, he's on my list at some point too. So Jonathan VR, he is basically the same age as Jake Marisnyk. He was born a month later, and he debuted, I think, a day after Jake Marisnyk in the major leagues in 2013, and like Jake Marisnyk, he has been in the big leagues every season since, and he has gotten a fair amount of playing time. So I like the trajectory. I mean, it's not a good trajectory, but like 2019, he played in all 162 games for the Orioles. 2020, he played in 52 of the 60 games. 2021, he played in 142 games. He got 505 plate appearances.

So he went from like 714 plate appearances in 2019 to 505 in 2021 to 220 in 2022. So even if his playing time gets halved again or more, then maybe I'll still end up with 100 appearances or something. And I'd be happy with that at this point in the draft. But Jonathan VR, he was with three organizations last season. He was in the big leagues with the Cubs and the Angels, and then also the Mariners signed him, but he didn't get big league time with them. And he did not hit at all in 2022, but he was a league average hitter as recently as 2021 in like a full season of playing time. So he's not so far removed from that.

And obviously he's got positional flexibility. I believe he is still unsigned, but he can play second, he can play third. He even got stuck at short for a couple of games, so he can kind of fake it there if he needs to this past season, even he was playing there. So Jonathan Villar, I'm going to just bet on the track record and bet that this is not the year when his streak of major league playing time gets broken. He really is the Jake Marisnyk of the infield. Yeah, exactly.

All right. That was a good pick. Thank you. I am going to pick Thomas Pannoni. Pannoni. I don't know. He's a very Christmassy sounding name. I had some Panettone when I was at my mom's house.

How do you feel about Panettone, Ben? Yeah, it was a homemade one. It was very good, actually. By her neighbors. That was very good. The type that you get just from department stores maybe less good yeah it makes me a bad italian but it's not my it's not my my bag it's not my thing i think almost any kind of italian dessert is very good

when it's homemade yeah but the the store versions yeah i'm not a big fan yeah they can be they can be rough although they make good french toast if you get the store-bought version. Oh, I didn't know that. Yeah. Well, also maybe makes good French toast is Thomas Pannoni. I don't know. Wait, Thomas. I don't know.

Is he on the BA list? No, he is not. Ooh. All right. Well, I guess we can keep that for that extended aside. Yeah, we've got to keep it. But I'm not picking him. Yeah, some people are sitting at home with like store-bought panettone,

and they're like, what do we do with this? Why was I insulted in passing for a player not even in the draft? And then the answer is you make French toast out of it. Yeah. Okay. So we'll keep that in the podcast, but strike it from the record, the draft. I feel good about this. I'm not the only one now who has drafted an ineligible player.

Well, he did sign a minor league deal in my defense, and I think that is where I got goofed up. Yeah, that's the other confusing thing about this that I should have mentioned, that players can sign minor league contracts without having been minor league free agents. Yeah. Yeah. I guess I will take Caleb Baragar. He is a reliever who signed a minor league deal with the Guardians. He was somewhat recently serviceable. He pitched 2020 and 2021 with the Giants and was good both those years, honestly.

He had a four ERA one year and a 1.57 ERA the other. And then he went to the Diamondbacks, didn't make the majors, and had an 8 FIP in the minors. So, you know, it's not what you'd love to see. But I like Cleveland's ability to work with guys.

I think that he would be a lot better if he threw 2 miles an hour harder. Cleveland does that sometimes. Yeah, could work out. He's left-handed. He's left-handed. That's good. It's always a plus. We're getting thin on my list here, guys. Yeah, I think we are getting thin. Oh, it's my turn. Oh. Yeah. Well, I'm going to take the requisite,

you got to have a catcher, got to have a catcher in one of these here drafts. And so I'm going to take Jacob Nottingham, who is not currently signed, but has been a big leaguer. A good one? I mean, no. If he were a good one,

he wouldn't be part of this draft, but he has been a big leaguer. He has one of the more delightful he he was a a brewer and then a mariner and then a brewer and then a mariner and he got passed around a bunch of times and i think finally was like enough and then he was most recently i think with the orioles but they're famously kind of set at catcher i don't know if you've heard this guy they have hadley richmond so anyway So anyway, that's Jacob Nottingham. Yep.

He was on my list somewhere. Hmm. All right. I don't know which way to go now. I could go any number of directions. I'm into this amorphous, shapeless tier of my draft board where everyone is- The blob tier. Yeah.

Kind of equally appealing or unappealing. I guess I'll go with Jose de Leon. So Jose de Leon, he has had big league time. He did not this past season, but he did for previous seasons. He was with the Reds for a while in 2021, which did not go well. But he is a former prospect, emphasis on the former, but a real prospect, like he was a top 20, top 30 type guy, according to various outlets several years ago.

But still, he's got a little of that luster left, perhaps. And he really just did not pitch much or pitch well this past year or so. That's why I'm not super high on him and why I'm not super excited about this pick. However, he was signed by the Twins and got an invitation to spring training. And seems like there could be an opportunity potentially for some playing time there. But he's just kind of bounced around a bit. He was with the Blue Jays. He was with the Reds.

He was with the Red Sox. He was with the Rays. He was with the Dodgers. He is very much in the journeyman phase. He's 30 years old now, but he's been a starter mostly. And so that always gives me some encouragement because, well, A, if you actually make it, you could get more batters faced. And B, there's another move you could make, right? You could always go to the bullpen, and who knows, maybe your stuff will play up. So he's been playing. He played in the Puerto Rican Winter League and had quite impressive numbers there, at least ERA-wise.

So I'll hope that that portends better things for him and that he catches on with the Twins. So Jose de Leon. Woo! I guess I'll stick with the theme. I, too, will pick de Leon. I'm going to draft Daniel Ponce de Leon. Alright. Who is, as of yet, unsigned and did not pitch

in the majors in 2022 and was bad for the Cardinals in 2021. So, I've really explained to you the downsides, but the upsides are that he signed a minor league deal with, I believe the Tigers at the end of last year, he made three starts and he had a 169 ERA and good peripherals and struck

some guys out and didn't walk too many. And come on someone, you can sign him. He's nice. He has a heartwarming story. He recovered from being hit in the head with a line drive to maybe two majors. Seems like a good thing that could sell some tickets. I don't know.

Good name. A good name. Great name. Great name. Yeah. Terrific name. You know? Yeah.

So Daniel Ponce de Leon. Here I am pumping up your pick. All right. Well, we'll see who got the better de Leon. De Leon. Oh, this is my final go, eh? Yeah. Is it?

Are we up to the last picks already? I think it's... I picked... First, this is my last pick. Wow. Okay. Per the pivot table in my spreadsheet, this is my last... That's how I've been able to identify the picks that weren't actually on the BA list

because I searched for them to say, oh, Ben L or Ben C, and then they weren't there. That's when I thought to myself, I don't think they're minor league for reasons. I actually am not stalling. I have a pick in hand. I'm taking Trenton Brooks.

Trenton Brooks. And look, this is mostly about the Oakland Athletics again. You know, this is the A's doing some heavy lifting. He is 27. He is that rarest and most coveted of defensive profiles, the first base left fielder, you know. But he had a 121 WRC plus in triple a for cleveland last year you know

and 340 plate appearances he's yet to debut you know so this who knows could be a flyer probably a flyer aren't they all but you know he hit he hit 273 367 464 he had he had 11 home runs he did some stuff for cle. So I'm taking him. Trenton Brooks, you know. He is an athletic. Alright. Well, for my final pick I will take

one Joe Rizzo. Yeah, Joe Rizzo. He's young. He's been in the Mariners system for a while and he's hit fairly well there he has not been in the big leagues as of yet but he had a 105 wrc plus in double a i guess it was for the mariners this past year and he can play a bunch of positions and he's on the marlins now so i'm going with uh if you're on the Marlins, that seems good.

Yeah. And I guess Jason has him at third base on the Marlins depth chart. And he is the top guy there who is not Gene Segura. So I guess this would have been a better pick before the Marlins signed Gene Segura. But I'm still going to go for it because they might still move an infielder, it seems like, potentially. And then Joe Rizzo will be waiting in the wings, and he's a former prospect, sort of, and is still young enough. He will not turn 25 until the end of March, right before opening day. So I'm hoping that he will get a chance as a left-handed hitter, and he's got some on-base ability.

So let's hope he gets to deploy those skills for the Miami Marlins or someone, anyone in 2023. Yeah. All right. Well, I have the last pick of the draft then, and I'm just going to go, I think, very off the board. I doubt anyone had this person. I actually have other names left, but I'm going to take Zach Muckenhurn. Oh, my gosh. What a name. That's not a real person muckin muckinhern muckinhern signed he is a he signed a minor league deal with the

mets he is a left-handed reliever and honestly he's been pretty good in the minors over the past two years for the white socks not you know exceptional but he strikes out a lot of batters he has some control issues. As you might expect. He's a reliever who hasn't made the majors. But he is left-handed. And the Mets are just terrible at left-handed relief. They trade for someone every year.

And those people almost never really work out. And if they do, then they leave right away. So right now the Mets lefties in the bullpen are Brooks Raley, who just gives me the vibe of like, he just might fall apart. He's 35 and you never know. And then they also have David Peterson, who I think will be called on to start a lot. And Buck likes his lefties. He seems to love having a lefty specialist in the bullpen. And they don't really pass Raley.

And I think Muck and Heurn might get some playing. It's a great name. Might get some playing time as a result of that. He's only 27. So, you know, there's space for him to develop better. He'll probably not pitch at all in the major leagues, but he might. He might. All right. Well, I feel pretty good about the first eight picks or so that I made. And then I think things fell apart for me, but I like the way it started. I feel pretty good about the first eight picks or so that I made. And then I think things fell apart for me, but I like the way it started. I feel about as confident as I ever do after one of these things, which is not very, but- For what it's worth, I feel much less confident than last year. Much less. Okay. Well, that makes me more confident in turn.

I had a bunch of guys on my list I considered. I'll just read off some names. Michael Feliz, RJ Alaniz, Hernan Perez, Tyler White, who I took in a previous minor league free agent draft. There are players who get drafted multiple times. And Evan, in his spreadsheet, he has an account. I think there are one, two, three, four, five, six, seven guys who have been drafted at least twice. And Rafael Ortega was drafted three times. He's the leader. That's great.

Yeah. Sometimes we jump the gun and we draft someone who goes on to be a big leaguer and productive, but not in the year that we need him to be. Done that a bunch. Yeah. I almost took Taylor. Not Tyler. Oh, no. Taylor Motter.

And yeah, he's on the Cardinals. That seemed promising. Who else did I have? Jacob Webb, Lewis Head, DJ Stewart, formerly of the Orioles, Jose Peraza, who's been on a few teams, Alec Mills, who was with the Cubs, but he had back surgery. And then Chucky Robinson, catcher we talked about on our last episode, Meg. I almost took him too.

Yeah. Brian Shaw is a minor league free agent. Yes. That surprised me because he's been a mainstay. He's been a staple of the Terry Francona bullpens to many Guardians fans' dismay, but he's been cast loose. He's a free agent as of now. Who else? Yeah, I mean, like, did you experience any Brian Shaw in 2022? Because that makes more sense if you had. Yeah.

Sorry, Brian. But Hansel Robles, Tony Walters, Jair Camargo, or higher. He's a promising young catcher. Sam Clay, your second round pick last year, I believe, Meg. Yeah, I didn't. Or two years ago, maybe. I couldn't do it again. I've lived the Sam Clay life. I don't know how well it served me.

Yeah. Nate Fisher, the banker we talked about on the last episode for the Mets. He's around. Gosh, who else? Just some other names like Tyler Duffy and Shane Green and Chris Owings and Chasen Shreve. Yeah, Chasen.

And Billy McKinney and Sam Selman and Mark Appel and Zach Collins. I consider taking Zach Collins. Yeah. Zach Littell, reliever and cruise ship enthusiast. Some other catchers, Austin Allen,ny pareda who you drafted last year i believe meg and he's uh invited to spring training with the reds

yoshi tsugo is around still yeah i kind of wish i had taken instead of de leon i had taken connor sadzak oh yeah not sad sack but sadzak he's a 6-7 guy so he would have paired well with my other giant pitchers and who else i guess uh patrick murphy also with the twins bubby rossman who was a meet a major leaguer this past season bubby rider ryan who's with the mariners now also julio rodriguez was on the board. The other Julio. Julio E. Rodriguez, a catcher who's with the Tigers now and Jordan Holloway. I think that's everyone who I had on my board. So if any of those guys do well, I can at least say I considered them.

Yeah. Yeah. I feel so calm, you know? I feel relaxed. Yeah. Yeah. Well, we've done it. The die is cast, and now we just see where the chips fall.

So I've enjoyed this exercise, as always. So thanks to you, too, for joining. And we will put various links to sources on the show page so you can see who else was available and which players we drafted. And this will all be tracked on the Effectively Wild wiki and the competitions and draft spreadsheet. We will link to that too. And I should also mention that there is a control group. So Thomas Burton, who has originated this practice of randomly selected players, he has done it again for us.

So officially the 10-player control group for this year. Cody Reed, Matt Echelman, Jesus Linares, Jace Vines, Jonathan Lopez, Luis Avile, Weston Wilson, Kevin Padlow, Phillips Valdez, and Jorge Bonifacio. So those are the 10 to beat for us. Hopefully we can clear that bar at least in 2023. But we will see, and we will provide updates as we learn more and as people get playing time or do not.

So thanks as always. Here's to another decade of Minor League Free Agent drafts. Yay! All right, I will conclude with the Past Blast. So this is episode 1948. The past blast comes from 1948 and from Jacob Pumranki, Sabres Director of Editorial Content and Chair of the Black

Sox Scandal Research Committee. Jacob calls this one Three Little Steam Shovels. In the mid-1940s, the Boston Braves were one of baseball's most creative teams off the field. New owners Lou Perrini, Guido Rugo, and C.J. Maney, lovingly known as the Three Little Steam Shovels, overhauled the fan experience at Braves Field by installing lights for night games, moving the fences in, adding skyboxes, building a big scoreboard, and updating the concessions menu.

Before the 1948 season, the Braves started feeling out their next great idea to bring in fans from all over New England. Here's a report from the Sporting News on March 10th, 1948. Quote, Boston's Braves, who gave baseball fried clams and neon foul poles, have an even more striking innovation in mind. It still is just a gleam in the eyes of President Lou Perrini, a pictured blueprint in the mind of General Manager John Quinn. But if the latest idea of the three little steam shovels is realized, they are going to have a railroad station at their ballpark. The Braves probably would become the only baseball team in the world to include a railroad station in its operating equipment. The proposed station would be situated a bit to the left of the left field fence, where the Boston and Albany tracks go by

the park. The railroad already has revealed that it has some interest in Braves president Lou Perrini. He owns coal mines and has sold coal to the railroad. He also has prevailed on the Boston and Albany to refrain from its ancient custom of firing engines just outside the left field fence, a custom that sprayed customers with soot during the Emile Fuchs and Bob Quinn eras. Unfortunately, the train station plan never worked out for the Braves, Jacob concludes, who reached a peak in 1948 by winning their first National League pennant in 34 years and drawing a record 1.4 million fans. But it all quickly went downhill.

Four years later in 1952, the Braves drew a little over 4,000 fans for opening day and just 281,000 fans for the entire season. Luperini decided to move the team to Milwaukee at the end of the season. And that was a wise decision, at least from an attendance and revenue standpoint, because the Braves went from being the worst drawing team in 1952 to the best drawing team in 1953, the Milwaukee Braves, drew more than 1.8 million people with an attendance per game of 23,119 compared to just 3,600 the year before. So it was an attendance bonanza, a ticket-buying boom. And of course, we've gotten trains in or nearby other ballparks since, so maybe the idea was just ahead of its time. Also, I got curious about that passing mention of neon foul poles.

So I looked that up and quoting from another Sabre page here. This is about the 1946 Braves. Of the 77 home games on the 1946 Braves schedule, nearly one-third, 24, were scheduled as night contests. The first was slated for Saturday, May 11th, 1946 against the New York Giants, and there was tremendous buildup to the event. A special ticket booth was set up at Braves Field and opened for extended hours starting in early May, specifically for the sale of night and Sunday doubleheader tickets, and new satin uniforms, then referred to as sateen,

were designed for Braves players to wear in night games. The uniforms, the Boston Globe reported, would have dazzling luster to make, quote, a lot of hairy-chested athletes look like so many sparkling diamonds. The goal was to give fans in the stands a clear view of the home club, and neon foul poles and gold-painted box seats were added for the same purpose. So I guess that added some razzle-dazzle, but probably also the lighting wasn't that great. So if you had shiny uniforms and neon foul poles and gold-painted box seats, maybe that helped tell where everyone was and

where the ball went. We don't have such lighting issues today, and we have replay and high definition, but I wouldn't mind bringing back neon foul poles. Could be a cool look. You can support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon.com slash effectivelywild. Following five listeners have already signed up and pledged some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going. Help us stay ad-free and get themselves access to some perks. Arne Boesman, Seamus, Tiffany, Kate Kraske, and Josh Shaines. Thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include access to the Effectively Wild Discord group for patrons,

as well as access to monthly bonus episodes, playoff live streams, and more. You can get discounts on merch and ad-free Fangraphs memberships. Check it out, patreon.com slash effectivelywild. You can contact me and Meg via email at podcastwithfangraphs.com or via the Patreon messaging system if you are a supporter. You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash group slash effectivelywild. And you can rate, review, and subscribe to Effectively Wild on iTunes and Spotify and other podcast platforms. You can follow Effectively Wild on Twitter at EWPod, and you can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at r slash Effectively Wild. Thanks to Dylan Higgins for his editing and production assistance. We will be back with one more episode before the end of the week and the year. We will take a spin through the American League teams this time and talk about stories that we missed in 2022. Talk to you soon! I can hear your folks playing out of line

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