Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 197: Our Incredibly Premature All-Star Picks

Episode Date: May 7, 2013

With All-Star voting officially underway, Ben and Sam make their incredibly premature picks, with Jason Wojciechowski joining them to settle any disputes.

Good morning and welcome to Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from BaseballPerspectives.com. I'm Sam Miller with Ben Lindberg and today we're joined by Jason Wojtkowski who is going to serve as an impartial judge in a little, I don't know what to call it, that Ben and I are going to be doing. It's not quite a competition and yet we do need a mediator to confirm which of us is better. It's going to be one of those debate shows that are all the rage these days where we take a position and yell at each other. Yeah, people are always asking us to get more yelly. A lot of requests for volume in this show. So we're going to turn up the volume. We're going to turn up the volume. We're going to pump up the volume.

We're going to pump up the volume. Yes. All right. Pump up the volume, incidentally. First R-rated movie I ever saw. I don't know what mine was. Jason? Are you just saying my name, or do you want to know the first R-rated movie I ever saw?

Yeah, I'd like to know the first R-rated movie you ever saw. I think it might have been Under Siege. How old were you then? I don't know. I don't remember. When did it come out out I would guess like 94 yeah I was no 92 I was 11 probably rented it when I was 12

yeah something like that cool cool alright so what we're gonna do today is actually because it's all star ballots are out and it's completely absurd to vote on an all-star team right now depending on what your philosophy is i guess if your philosophy is such that you don't really care about what's happening this year and you just vote for the best player

then it's not too early at all but if you are voting for you know the stars of the first half it's obviously very early and so ben and I are going to force ourselves, though, to nonetheless pick an all-star team. And we're going to go down the ballot. Each of us is going to pick based on whatever philosophy we each have for what an all-star should be. And then Jason is going to tell us which one of us is wrong. I'm terribly afraid.

In a way, basically Jason is going to also pick his all-star team, except he is limited to only the two players that we've chosen, if that makes sense. I'm afraid that we're going to pick the same players. Do you? Well, I don't know. What is your philosophy for all-star vote? My all-star philosophy is actually, I am one of the people who just kind of goes for the first half stars. So I don't necessarily, I mean, if I were running the All-Star game or organizing the All-Star game, I would probably feel differently about it because I wouldn't want some fluky player who no one knows in my All-Star game. But that's kind of my philosophy is just actually make the best players of the first half the All-Stars.

Except that I feel like right now, looking at my list, I don't have a whole lot of fluky people on it. But I don't know. We'll see. Yeah, I kind of think I go with a three-pronged approach to picking an All-Star. with like a three-pronged approach to picking an all-star, and it's weighted probably in like a 5-3-1 weighting, where five would be the current season, three would be the true talent that I believe the player has, or maybe you might say what I thought of the players coming into the season, and then one would be um either players who are a extra

value for players who are on either end of the career you know like either if you're an elite young player or a player who's you know nearing the end of your career and you're a hall of famer and you've been an all-star 17 times uh then i'll be more likely to vote for you. I feel like for this exercise we are combining whatever has happened so far and we're also projecting true talent kind of because we've still got a couple months until the All-Star game, so we're trying to anticipate who we'll be deserving at that point, right? No. Well, I guess, yeah. I mean, you're filling out the ballot now, so I guess if you're projecting,

if you're trying to anticipate what future you is going to believe, you're trying to represent your future self well, I suppose. Jason, can we get a ruling on whose philosophy is better? Neither. What is the correct philosophy, Jason?

The correct philosophy is to vote for who the hell you want to see in an exhibition game. So now see, I think that that's true for... What if David Ortiz is the third best DH in the game because there's a guy who walks so much that he has a 600 on base percentage

and there's another guy like that. But don't you vote for David Ortiz because he's a lot more fun? You're saying 600 OBP this year or over the course of the last seven years? Either one, depending on your philosophy. Well, I mean... Your philosophy is wrong if it's based on actual talent. You're telling me that a player with a 600 on-base percentage

over the course of a career would not be interesting to you? They would be interesting, but I think they wouldn not be interesting to you? If it were... They would be interesting, but I think they wouldn't be interesting in an All-Star game. I mean, the thing is that the All-Star game is in New York this year, so I'm going to go and I'm looking forward to going. But in most years, I'm probably not going to watch the All-Star game regardless. So I just kind of... That's a good point. Yeah, that's a good point.

I mean, I guess... I also don't, but I do it in theory anyway. I've come back to it. I quit watching it probably for a decade and now I generally do, but partly because I have a family and any excuse I can come up with that could plausibly get me out of being a father and a husband for three hours I take. Yeah, I mean I guess it could be more interesting if you just picked a bunch of weird players who had really no business being there.

Well, they also have to be good. They have to be good. They have to be good. They have to be at some cutoff in their position. their position but um above above that you know when when there's something if you're if you're choosing and then between a couple of guys that are all pretty good um you take the guy who's the most fun so my that's my philosophy for the home run derby is is absolutely that i think the home run derby should be completely out of the box and and interesting and a combination of guys who are good and a combination of guys who are different. But I don't know. I've never really felt the need to get too weird in all-star game voting. I mean, I think I definitely do try to imagine that it's supposed to represent the best

team that you can put on the field. Okay. Well, I'm always, I'm shocked every year when I, when I hear that the ballot is out. You told me earlier today that the ballot was out and I was shocked as always, because it just always seems so incredibly premature to be voting for a game in the middle of July. But I guess I understand why that's done. When I used to be a person who cast all-star ballots, and I don't think I have cast one for a few years or several years, but when I did, I always did it on the last day of eligibility. Wow, you took it very seriously. I did not.

I started as soon as I could, and I filled out. I was blatantly partisan. I would just go with my team. I wouldn't even fill out the other league. I had weird ideas about the value of the All-Star game when I was a child. So all right, well, let's start. Shall we start? We've just been joined by a cricket, so we can start. All right. So let's start with catcher. Even though it's not first on the ballot, it is first in my heart so who are your catchers uh my catchers are carlos santana who i i don't feel great about because i don't

think he's a very good defensive catcher but he's just been so much better offensively than anyone else and is good offensively that i feel like he will hold on to that lead for the next couple months. So he is my AL guy, and my NL guy is about as conventional as they come, Buster Posey. I like that you're worried about catcher defense in the All-Star game. You're probably actually thinking, did you consult the framing statistics? I was hoping I'd be able to. I was hoping that would be the tiebreaker and I could go with some weird guy who was good at framing and wasn't as good a hitter, but Santana

has just been so much better offensively than anyone else that I don't think that could make up the difference. I don't think that framing would be much of a factor for all-star catchers because they're catching pitchers for the first time. I would imagine they're all pretty terrible at framing. Well, yeah, that's true. But are we picking the guys that we think will give us the best chance of winning the game or picking the guys who we think are the best players and deserving of representing their league? Ben, I'm not going to tell you what to think. Okay.

Well, I'm doing the latter. So Santana and Posey, I also have Santana and Posey. Well, which of us likes Santana and Posey more? Unless you're a strict by-the-book, this-season-only guy, and you can convince yourself that Russell Martin should be there, it's pretty, I think, pretty easy to say Santana and Posey. So we tie. All right, Jason.

Posey's out hit Martin anyway. Yeah, that's right. I think he's been better anyway. Well, offensively. But the backup in the AL has to be Josh Donaldson moving back from third base over to catcher. Okay. Since you're not giving me a – since I wasn't able to actually make a choice,

I have to chime in on the backup. All right. All right. I wasn't able to actually make a choice, I have to chime in on the backup. All right. All right. I haven't mentioned that rule. You're welcome. Fair enough. All right. So first base.

Okay. I'm going to go with Joey Votto who is about as close to that 600 OPP guy that we were just talking about as there is right now. And I will go with Chris Davis Chris Davis interesting yeah alright well I am going with Prince Fielder and

Joey Votto as well although I don't feel I don't know Votto is yeah I mean Votto is great fun and everything like that. But there is a part of me that also in the All-Star game reverts back to being a child and wanting to reward the sort of traditional baseball card stats more than the ones that I actually care about. So, you know, Votto, if you have any sort of a brain, is having a tremendous year. But if you're 11 and you're wondering why Will Clark's power has all of a sudden disappeared and, you know, wondering whether it's time for the Giants to move him or whatever, then Votto is a disappointment.

Well, there's some pretty smart 11-year-olds out there today. I've met them at BP events. Yeah, well, I think I would expect Fielder to finish with better numbers by the end of the season than Davis, but since I am a first-half all-star game guy, I'm going to go with Chris Davis. It's not a very big difference between the two guys, between Fielder and Davis. not a very big difference between the two guys, between Fielder and Davis. It's, you know, they have fairly, especially Park adjusted, they have fairly similar offensive numbers. Jason?

Well, it's 100 points of slugging, but Sam is right, mainly because have you seen Prince Fielder? I mean, have you looked at Prince Fielder? Prince Fielder is 5'6 and 370 pounds, and yet he's one of the best players in baseball. You have to put that man as a starter on the All-Star team. So Sam wins. The only reason that I could see putting Chris Davis there is if you were going to promise the viewers that he's going to pitch. Well, I'd be okay with that.

I would enjoy the game more if you did uh all right so uh second base shall i go first sure so uh cano at uh second base in the american league although kinsler feels like uh uh kinsler i think has probably gotten more press in pub uh this year for his hot start or at least his hot last three weeks but uh i would go with cano and uh in the nl there's not a real good option as far as i can tell and so i'll go with uh chase utley for uh you know like redemption or whatever i had the same picks i almost went with i almost went with matt carpenter but. Yeah, no, that'd be foolish. I mean, that'd be nuts.

So Jason gets to pick the reserve. Well, the reserve in the NL is Michael Kadir moving back to second base. He's not on the ballot, but that's not bad. But he has 1,000 OPS, and he used to play second base. What about Matt Carpenter moving to second base for the first time? No, because he's actually playing there this year, so it's not that much fun. All right, so you're just going to go with anyone who moved from somewhere? Well, that has worked out for these first two positions.

That's probably not going to manage to stay that way all throughout. When the Rockies signed Kadiar, wasn't he going to be a second baseman for them? I think so. That was weird. The whole signing was weird. He never did play a game for them. That was weird. That was weird that they signed him thinking he was going to play second base.

I guess he had played 17 games at second base the year before, but 20 in the previous four seasons combined. Five, six, seven, 20 in his career. No, 20 since 2005. Good leader. Good leader. All right. Shortstop.

Okay. I think the NL pick is pretty obvious, Troy Tulewitzki. My AL pick is Jed Lowry, and I'm uneasy about that pick because what are the odds that the Jed Lowry will be healthy in two months from now? Uh, not that great, but I'm going to roll the dice and, and say that he will, he will manage to stay healthy long enough to deserve, deserve to go. Yeah. I, there's a tiny part of me that wouldn't

actually be all that sad if Tulewitzki well, I don't even want to, I feel bad because he's been hurt so much in his career, but like the race for shortstop if Tulewitzki were out of the picture in the NL would actually be tremendously fun between Segura, Brandon Crawford, Andrelton Simmons, and

Didi Gregorius. And I'm a little sad that we don't get to debate those four. Ian Desmond, I guess, maybe. Ian Desmond, I guess, maybe. But, I mean, yeah, it's got to be Tullo. And I went with Elvis Andrews, I guess, even though he has, like, none of the traditional shortstop, none of the traditional all-star stats.

I mean, he's totally, like, no 11-year-old would look at him and say he's an all-star. But, you know, he does things well. And I think you're right. He doesn't really have the traditional $100 million contract stats either. Exactly. Exactly. I think there's something nice about rewarding him for just being who he is in the same way that his contract rewards him for being who he is. But clearly, I did not think about the judge in this for guys who are going to be injured because then you get crazy you know you get the last minute um they have to call somebody up who just happens to still be in town and you wind up with like the 150th best player in the league as an all-star um because

Jed Lowry strained a hamstring on June 27th or whatever I don't know when the all-star game is well if I had known that that that might have affected my earlier picks. I could have gone with the most injury-prone guys possible. We're learning, yeah, we're definitely learning slowly as we go how to cater to Jason, to a nation of Jasons. I do like the defense first pick for Andrews, though, because I think defense is, defense can be flashy and fun in the all-star game just as much as offense can, if not more.

You had a couple years ago, didn't somebody try to throw somebody out at first base from left field? We probably weren't watching. It's interesting though because you're right. There's no way. Obviously, Andrews and Lowry, neither one is going

to be the guy in the lineup that you're going to want to watch hit. I mean, it's, there's not going to be a single Jed Lowry, uh, offensive highlight coming out of that game, you know, unless he home, unless he homers or whatever, but who cares? That'd be boring too. But there is the possibility that a great play will be made that, that it will be gif-able. And, you know, the NFL is, their All-Star game is completely unlike a regular NFL game because nobody tries and there's no defense. And an NBA All-Star game is basically completely unlike a regular NBA game because nobody tries

and there's no defense and it's just a bunch of flash and dunks and stuff. And yet, other than the fact that nobody plays more than 12 minutes, the baseball All-Star game looks a lot like a regular baseball game. And so I wonder what the most interesting roster construction would be just from a gift perspective. If you just wanted to have an aesthetically interesting game,

what would you do? I mean, on the one hand, maybe you'd get a bunch of Craig Kimbrels because you want to like gif the pitch porn. But on the other hand, that's kind of a one-note joke. And so maybe you get all defense guys or maybe you play everybody out of position or maybe you get all Astros. You probably just get Hunter Pence. You might want Hunter Pence. Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino, permanent two-man outfield.

You don't want legit good defenders. You want good athletes with bad first steps. Yeah. That seems right, yeah. I feel like it's harder to half-ass baseball, kind of. I mean, it's harder to, like, you can't not. I mean, I guess you could not play defense, but it's like in baseball there's not that much running anyway,

so you can't slow down that much. I don't know. I mean, you can't, if you're at the plate, I guess you could just kind of not swing, but it's not like in football and basketball where you can just give less effort and not run as fast. I suppose you can do that in baseball, but it's less dependent on that in the first place probably.

Yeah, there was a point I think in baseball's history where they were going to go one way or the other with the All-Star game. They were either going to go the way that they did where there was going to be some mini controversy and they were going to have to figure out a way to make it seem more serious than it is, or they were going to go the other way like every other sports All-Star game does

and go to complete novelty complete just fun and whimsy and figuring out a way to make it look aesthetically odd and have everybody kind of relax and enjoy it with a beer and they chose the serious one and it would be fun to imagine what would have happened if they'd let it go the other direction and embraced the kind of baseball-watching culture that exists now that didn't exist 10 years ago. Yeah, I'd love to see some kind of skills competition. I guess the risk there is that someone gets hurt. Yeah, baseball players are very weird about doing anything that is not the sport.

Borges and Trout, everybody who's ever written about the Angels has at some point done a piece about who would win a race between Borges and Trout. And, like, when you ask, oh, well, is there ever going to be a race, everybody acts aghast. Like, you'd actually ask two professional athletes to run 75 feet? There's just no way, no. We risk injury on that, and it's like all they do is sprint. Like that's their job. You're not asking them to do it while carrying a tractor tire or like a new bride across a river. I mean it's – you're just asking them to run. But they won't do it. They just – they absolutely won't do it. So – Did you carry your wife across the river? No, but – no, I'm not even saying you would carry your own wife.

I'm saying like you get a wife in a wedding. Wouldn't it be fun to – if the race were – But that's not a tradition. Nobody does that. Where did you come up with that is what I'm trying to get at. The threshold is the carrying thing. No, I'm imagining – well, no. I'm imagining that – OK. I have this sort of weird sense that in Japanese game shows there's often a woman in a wedding dress.

Okay, I have this sort of weird sense that in Japanese game shows there's often a woman in a wedding dress. And then you want to have a river because the stones are so slippery. So that would be how you would get hurt, on slippery stones. We totally knew you were going for that. All right, third base. All right. Wait, did we? Yeah, we ruled.

We ruled on that. Yeah, this is just the most boring. I mean, I hate even saying it, but it's Miguel Cabrera and David Wright. Forget it. I'm going with Manny Machado. I didn't even know he was still playing third base. He didn't move over to shortstop yet? Mm-mm. Oh.

No, sir. Well, put him at shortstop manny machado is the most uh he is the most glorious thing to watch on a baseball field right now so i would i would take him knowing that i was throwing away my vote on a third party candidate okay so you're going for aesthetic appeal i'm going for deserved players i really like guys in there i really like top prospects who are doing well at age 20, and I really like Hall of Famers who are doing well at age 43. So Manny Machado gets it this year, just like Chipper Jones got it last year.

Jason? Ben. I mean, there are two defensible choices in AL, and neither of them is Manny Machado. Sorry. Actually, three if you want to count Chris Davis. I would put Chris Davis at third base for the All-Star game.

You don't get to choose your ballot. Trumbo too. I would put Trumbo at third base for the All-Star game. The ballot is the ballot. You're stuck with the ballot. You have a write-in, don't you? That's true. Isn't there a write-in slot? There is a write-in slot, you're stuck with the ballot. You have a write-in, don't you? That's true. Isn't there a write-in slot? There is. There is a write-in slot, you're right. Fair enough. All right. Designated hitter? Again, I mean, I guess I would go with...

Shouldn't you do, because the NL DH situation is weird, so shouldn't you do outfield first and then go to the DH? That way, the leftover guys in the NL get situation is weird so shouldn't you do outfield first and then go to the DH that way the leftover guys in the NL get to be DH the ballot there is no I feel like there should be like now that there's interleague constantly I feel like there should be some sort of extra NL guy

who's just like a part time DH or something but there isn't there's just an AL DH I think I actually looked at a ballot so that that's why i keep asking these stupid questions i think regardless no every i think it's automatic nldh should automatically just be omar infante no matter what team he's on um well i mean david ortiz kind of had to make up some ground because he was injured,

but since then he has hit like a million slash a million slash a million. And so I'm going to go with David Ortiz and assume that he will make up the ground by all-star game time for the time that he lost and that probably Travis Hafner will be hurt. And actually knowing that and knowing Jason's predilections, I probably should have picked Travis Hafner here. Well, I think David Ortiz is pretty close to the most automatic pick

in the sport right now as long as he's moving, and he currently is. I wanted to pick Berkman because Berkman's having, I mean, Berkman's basically having Joey Votto's season and it's a delight to watch. And I like Berkman a lot and I like that he's come back again from, you know, another lost year. But, you know, one of the problems with Berkman is that he doesn't actually have really any American League heritage in him. It doesn't feel like you'd be rewarding the veteran. It'd be easier to put Tomey there if Tomey were doing what Berkman's doing because it just feels like there's some history there. But Berkman's an NL guy, and it feels weird.

But he was a longtime Astro. Yeah, so I would go with Ortiz. Is there anyone else even on the—I mean, who else is on the ballot besides Hafner? Ortiz, Hafner. Butler, Adam Dunn, Kendries Morales, Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Mark Trumbo. Mark Reynolds is having a pretty excellent season. Mark Reynolds has a 171 OPS+. Yeah, Mark Reynolds, good pick.

Chris Young, Luke Scott, Nolan Reimold, Victor Martinez, Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Domet. I don't think Chris Young has even played a game at DH. Well, they actually put these ballots out before the season starts. Huh. Well, the backup DH is Elvis Andrews. Okay. All right. All right. All right.

So outfield, did you notice that all of the good outfield seasons are in the National League? Yeah, it was very difficult. It was hard to find one good outfield pick in the AL. It's like the top 10 seasons, or at least it seems like, are all NL guys right now are close to that yeah um so my NL guys are Justin Upton Bryce Harper and Carlos Gomez uh yeah those are mine too Gomez Gomez over Braun was the the probably the the the toughest test of the uh the what have you done for me lately versus who you are because ryan braun's having a fine year and ryan braun is probably you know maybe the best or one of the three best

players in the national league um but i also went with gomez for the third for the third one and my ale guys uh i went with went with mike trout went with Adam Jones, and then was kind of torn on the last guy, and I think I'm going with Lorenzo Cain. Yeah, I went with Trout, and then I went with Cespedes for aesthetic appeal alone, and because I think that he'll still be good at the all-star break, even if he's not at the moment. And then I would have gone with Trumbo for the third one but trumbo is not allowed in the outfield so i picked coco crisp and felt weird about it so you went with two a's so i'm screwed here i don't know jason see the thing about jason is that he actually is uh self-loathing i thought, I didn't think either of you was going to go with Crisp,

so now I'm kind of thrown for a loop because I was going to scold you for not going with Crisp, and now I can't do that. Well, I did distance myself from the pick. I don't like the Lorenzo Cain pick, so I have to go with Sam here. All right, that's understandable. I don't have anything.

What is Lorenzo Cain? I mean, I've liked Lorenzo Cain for a while, and he's kind of hasn't had a chance to have a full healthy season, and so far this is it. And he's hitting very well and kind of a high-babbitt guy, but he's kind of a fast guy also. And he plays. I mean, I drafted him three years in a row in fantasy too,

and only to watch him get hurt every year, get demoted. But I don't know. He's hitting three 41. I like him. He won't be hitting three 41. I was sad. I was most sad that I could not get a Shinsu Chu onto a roster.

Cause Shinsu Chu is having a spectacular year. But he just gets I think, I haven't looked but I imagine that he just gets absolutely crushed on his defense probably and so his warps and such aren't all that. But I might go with him over

Gomez or something like that. But I didn't. I said I might, but I didn't. If you'd gone with Chu over Gomez, I would have gone with you. So Jason has ruled in favor of Crisp over Kane, and then it comes down to Jones and Cespedes, I guess, for the other ruling. Oh, I had to do like – but you guys didn't go position by position i was

taking the the core the outfield core and i like sam's better great all right settled okay i wasn't jason i wasn't counting so i think i think it was two to two i think there were only four i think i made four rulings out of out of like six or something and it was 2-2. I think there were only four. I think I made four rulings out of six or something, and it was 2-2. I remember saying Ben twice and Sam twice. Don't you have to pick a pitcher? Pitcher's your tiebreaker, right? We don't get to vote on that. Not clear on the procedure. You really need a tiebreaker. You can go anywhere with this pitcher. You may want to take into account my predilections if you really want to win this. I feel like neither of you actually wants to win this. You're not trying.

This is like an NBA All-Star game of a podcast. My pitcher is Yu Darvish. And the AL is obviously Yu Darvish? And the AL is obviously you Darvish. Yeah, I thought we were just picking one. I'm just, he's my one guy. Wait, you're only picking one? You have to have two pitchers. It's a baseball game. Yeah, I'm taking Darvish and Harvey.

Darvish and Harvey, huh? I'm going to go with Darvish and Wainwright. Did you know that Kevin Slowey ranks seventh in baseball reference war right now? Yeah, he's having himself a season. Actually, I'm going to go with – I'm going to retract my Hugh Darvish pick and go with Kevin Correa. Do Correa and Slowey. See, I like entertainment, but Sam picked the right kind of entertainment here. Okay.

Jake Westbrook would have also been a valid choice. All right. Well, that'll do it. 358 ERA plus, you guys. So that's our all-star team. The game is, I think, like Thursday or something. Check your local listings. Tomorrow we'll be back with the email show.

We don't actually need any questions. We have a lot, thanks to all you guys. And so if you want to send ones that are even better, that's fine. But people have generally brung it. And so we're basically good to go. So tune in tomorrow and have a pleasant day. And thanks to Jason.