Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2002: East Coast MLBias

Episode Date: May 4, 2023

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about players being paid for on-field, in-game interviews, pitcher injuries and pitcher call-ups, how low Oakland’s attendance could go (and whether the team might bungle its move to Las Vegas), the NL West race, the AL East’s strength compared to the AL Central’s, which team invented the in-dugout home […]

When I'm riding the bus or going for a walk I'm strapped on my head for them listen to people talk Don't hear about baseball with nuance and both the end stats Yeah, yeah Don't hear about pitcher wins or about gambling odds All they want to hear about pitcher wins or about gambling odds. All they want to hear about is my child has viticals. And the texture of the hair on the arm growing out of one's eyes. Gross, gross.

Gimme, gimme, gimme Effectively Wild. Gimme, gimme, gimme Effectively Wild. Gimme, gimme, gimme Effectively Wild. This is Effectively Wild. Hello and welcome to episode 2002 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of The Ringer, joined by Meg Raleigh of Fangraphs. Hello, Meg. Hello. So we mused recently about why players are willing to do in-game interviews live from the field. out why players are willing to do in-game interviews live from the field. And we know now, I think, it was reported a couple of weeks ago by Andrew Marchand of the New York Post,

which I had missed until a couple of listeners pointed it out to us. But they are, in fact, being paid for that, which I guess is not a surprise, right? But they're being paid, according to this report, about $10,000 to do one of these in-game interviews. And the money doesn't come from the broadcast networks. It comes kind of from the league and the Players Association. So I think you had mentioned last time something about this maybe being something that the Players Association should be involved in, at least. And it sounds like they are. So they have sort of an

earmarked joint fund that mlb and the players association share and this money comes out of that so for any normal person with a typical salary this would be a heck of a deal because ten thousand dollars for a half inning what is is that? 10 minutes, maybe less these days. So you're getting thousand bucks a minute or maybe more than that, right? Just to utter a few words here and there between plays. So it sounds appealing on that level. Of course, $10,000 is sort of a rounding error for a lot of players, particularly players who are the ones getting mic'd up, right? Because it's usually not someone who's making the league minimum. It's more of a veteran, more of a well-known name who's probably

making millions, in which case 10,000 is just a tiny fraction of what they're making. And yet, I imagine even if you're making a lot, especially if you didn't grow up with a ton of money, it's still like you're giving me $10,000 for 10 minutes of work. If you can call it work, I'm doing my work. And meanwhile, I'm just going to banter a little bit between pitches and you're going to give me 10,000 bucks. Okay, fine. So, I do understand why they want to take that deal. I suppose I'm still not enamored of the practice, but it does make it make sense from their perspective. Well, and i you know i think that we understood that this was the sort of thing that only gets done if the if the players association

is involved i just think they need to refine the parameters of it you know they just need to kind of hem it in because as we said i'm not optimistic we will do away with it i don't know that the money piece of it changes how little i like it no No, right. I mean, but it's good that they're getting something, I suppose. Yeah, right. Go ahead, get paid. I mean, I'm glad someone's making something off it, but it does remind me of the final season of Brockmire, which did a jump ahead in time. And in this scenario, it was almost like a dystopian sort of scenario of future America and baseball. And one of the things that they featured was players live streaming, essentially, from the field just to kind of open up their own revenue streams. So, you know,

they'd basically be on some equivalent of Twitch just during the game, talking, monetizing their presence on the fields, having ads, et cetera. So this isn't quite that, but it's a step along the path to that. So I don't know. It's just this New York Post piece says that, first and foremost, it is nice for the national games to have wrinkles to make them feel different. Second, it gives MLB stars a chance to show their personality. And I guess in theory it does, although it doesn't always provide the best showcase for their personality

because again, they're extremely distracted as they should be. And especially with the pitch clock, there's just not that much time. So it depends. Like there are certain guys who I think take it in the right spirit or have the right personality to do it and they just have fun with it and other guys it's maybe not the best platform or venue for them maybe the happy medium here maybe the place that we should encourage them to land with all our authority you know to dictate these things yeah i don't mind players being miked up when they do the like miked'd up sessions that are cut together after the fact. Oh, yeah, totally. Those are delightful.

And I think that they do allow guys to more naturally display who they are because you get to see them going about their business and talking to one another. And it has, they know they're mic'd up and it is funny to watch them say. Yeah, I love when they warn each other. I'm mic'd up, I'm mic'd up, I'm mic'd up. Watch out, yeah, yeah. Yeah. everyone needs an editor, right? Even the most interesting people in the world are not interesting every single second of the day when they're talking. And so you can kind of pick and choose the best parts and you're not interrupting the play on the field in the same way. You're hearing them narrate that play and interact with one another. And so I want them to lean into that more. And I realize that if they think the national broadcast needs wrinkles which like it's just what if we tried just like as an experiment not what if we didn't because you know the baseball is the thing about it is it's entertaining on its own we don't have to right yeah lard it up with all this stuff people like their local telecasts for the most part because

they get used to those people and they're just constant comforting presences in their lives and they know what they're talking about. They know the storylines. They know the players. They talk to the players. All the wrinkles with national broadcasts, people dislike the wrinkles. People want to Botox the national broadcast. I mean, they do not want that. They don't want it to be basically a podcast during the game where, I don't know, Michael K. and A-Rod are just chatting with someone and it's a pre-planned segment regardless of what's going on.

There might be some bells and whistles and special fancy cameras and camera angles and stats and that sort of thing. So those can be beneficial at times. But all the other stuff just seems like a distraction. I don't have a sense, really, for whether people have embraced this and I'm just being a complete curmudgeon. And everyone else is gung-ho about this. I'm not sure because I do see a lot of people complain about it. And sometimes I see people say it's cool. But mostly it seems like during exhibition games, which I am all for and on board with, but I just don't have a sense of like whether anyone's tuning in because someone's going to be mic'd up during this game, you know? I don't know if that's a big draw.

Right. Yeah. I think while we are supportive of the concept of aging gracefully, such an odd, what a loaded little discourse to jump into that would be. Yeah, I have a lot of sympathy for how difficult it is to be a broadcaster who sort of parachutes in. And I think that, you know, they do a lot of work to try to bridge the gap between what they understand and what a local broadcast crew would understand. And so I don't want to say like, oh, it's so easy. Just be as good as the, you know, the guys who follow them. And, you know, candidly, they recycle so many teams for the Sunday night games that they do get to know these guys. Remember when we talked to you like two weeks ago? Anyway, what's different now? But i think that it really isn't quite as um complicated as as what they are suggesting that they could just let the game breathe a little bit more and if what they're trying to sort of counterbalance is the remove that they have from

these players because they aren't covering them for you you know, 162 games, maybe that's an asset, right? Maybe we can look at those broadcasts and say, Hey, you're going to hear a crew that has no skin in this particular game because they aren't affiliated with either team or you could lean the other direction and, and have, I don't want to bounce anyone from that booth. I'm not like get out of here, but you know, they could have an open seat in the, in the booth and maybe cycle in someone who does cover the team time. And if they want that perspective where you get to know a guy over the course of a season and spring training and what have you, you know, there's a ready-made solution to that, which is to put a broadcaster who talks to that player on a

regular basis in the booth with you. So I think that there are a lot of ways that that broadcast could kind of zhuzh it up if they're looking for a way to differentiate themselves from the local team's broadcast. But this wouldn't be my preferred one. And like we said last time, you know, these minutes are at a bit more of a premium now because the games are shorter. It's sort of it's funny because it's like they spend so much time on those broadcasts or they did at least in the first couple of weeks of the season. I say that like the season has been going on for so, so long. But, you know, talking about the pitch clock and all the differences and, you know, the games are shorter, they're shorter. know the games are shorter they're shorter and it feels a bit like there wasn't a re-evaluation of hey we don't have to fill quite the way that we have had to in in seasons past these games aren't

quite as long we're not looking for moments on the field to help punctuate the broadcast and make it you know feel dynamic we've already added a bunch of dynamism back into the game both in terms of making the action lively or having more stolen bases etc so it's like what if you we should maybe take this as an opportunity to reset and try fewer things and sort of add them back in slowly with consideration to say, we actually have a good balance now. You know, we did one managerial interview. That's all. No more. You know, like, I think that we could view it as an opportunity to kind of reconfigure some of the segments of those broadcasts that maybe don't work quite as well or take up time just to take up time. Like, we don't have time now. We don't have time to do that.

You got to, you know, we need a tight 10. If they're going to do this, I wish they would lean into just concentrating on what is going on in that game as opposed to just a general talk show discussion. Yeah, what are you watching? Yeah, like, give me some insight. I don't care what Manny Machado is watching with his wife.

That doesn't seem like a thing I have to care about. Right, and maybe this is just the sicko seam head perspective speaking I don't care what Manny Machado is watching with his wife. That doesn't seem like a thing I have to care about. Right. And maybe this is just the sicko seam head perspective speaking, and your actual national audience doesn't want to be totally in the weeds. But if we're talking to someone who's actually involved in the game, just give me what is going through their head right now. Like, which way are you leaning on this pitch? Like, where do you think he's going to hit it?

What's the scouting report? What do you think he's going to hit it? What's the scouting report? What do you think you're going to do in your next at-bat? Like, what did he throw you last time that you're anticipating next time? That sort of thing. And maybe they wouldn't want to give away some of that. Like, they wouldn't want to divulge the scouting report because it could be relevant later in that game or in the next game. So you might just be inherently limited in the sort of insights you could get, but that would be the saving grace of it for me if we could actually glean something from what is going through a player's mind. And depending on the player,

there might not be much going through their mind, right? But with some players, at least, there is, and they're constantly evaluating things and thinking through probabilities, even if they're not thinking of it in those terms. So that's what I want, sort of the cerebral look inside. And I rarely get that from these interviews. And Emma Batchelary, friend of the show, wrote about this for SI last August. And she spoke to Karl Ravitch, and he said, they're doing their jobs. We don't ever want to interfere with that.

We trust them to speak when it makes sense. And they trust us to ask questions and realize, look, there may have to be a pause here. There's no way you cannot interfere with that. I mean, they're doing their job. Like the interference might be more or less limited, but it has to be some slight distraction. I almost hope, like, if this continues for the next 20 years or something, maybe we'll have enough of a sample to do a study to show how players perform in the half innings when they're mic'd up. What do their defensive metrics look like? How do they catch? How do they pitch?

How do they hit? And maybe then, you know, in 2055 or something, I can demonstrate that there is an actual cost to doing this to player performance, and then I can kill it forever. But it'll take a really long time, I think, to have a sufficient sample to do that sort of study. But to me, I think it highlights the unique nature of baseball or unusual nature of baseball in maybe not the most flattering way, which is that, hey, there's not so much action that we can't actually talk to players during games. Like we could just chat them up while they're out there on the field, which you could not do in soccer or hockey or basketball or really any other major sport, right? Just because everyone would be winded and running into each other constantly, there would be very little downtime.

And that's something that some people appreciate about baseball, and some people mock and denigrate about baseball, that there is more downtime, less than there was pre-pitch clock, but still a lot of standing around. So you could say that it highlights that, it draws attention to the fact that at any given time for any given player, there's probably not a ton going on. Then again, I guess you could say, well, that is the fundamental nature of baseball. It always has been to some extent. So you might as well embrace it and do something cool that other sports can't

do, which is give you a direct line to those players as they're on the field, which in theory in the abstract does sound like it could be kind of cool and a fun window into something that you wouldn't get in any other sport. It's just in practice, I think it's a lot less appealing than in theory. And it just constantly makes me worried about injuries or just makes me fret about is this taking away from the stakes and the competitive integrity? And is it making it seem more like an exhibition game when it is not actually an exhibition game? I totally get the appeal of it. It does feel like a super interesting and potentially fruitful opportunity to talk to an athlete sort of in the midst of, you know,

practicing the craft. I get it. But I think you're right that it hasn't quite fulfilled that promise. And, you know, this is why after the fact, sort of like on a delay, mic'd up is the way to go because you still get to take advantage of the piece of it that makes this possible, right? That there are pauses in the action, that there's room for that kind of stuff, that it's, you know, it's not football or hockey or basketball, even though, you know, they do mic'd up on football too, right? And they probably do for other sports. I just don't know. But I think that it allows you to hit sort of a happy medium. So. Yeah, right. And look, I'm all for players monetizing themselves and I'm all for MLB

promoting players in any way that it can. So there are aspects of it that I like, at least on paper, but something about it just rubs me the wrong way. But again, if everyone else loves this, I'm fine to defer on it. I just, I don't get the sense that it has been widely beloved that there are other people who are as uncomfortable with it as I am. Yeah. Yeah. So we should talk a little bit about, well, there've been more injuries, but there've also been more prospect promotions and debuts. It's the circle of life, right? And so I wanted to read maybe the saddest paragraph that I have read. One of the saddest, certainly in any story about baseball this year. And it was in a story in the Denver Gazette by Daniel Allentuck, who was our Rockies preview guest.

And this was a story about German Marquez, who needs Tommy John surgery, sadly. And Daniel wrote, the Rockies, though, find themselves in a tough position. Starting pitching depth was an issue for the team last season. That certainly came up on her preview segment. And the team said heading into the offseason that it was going to be a priority. The Rockies, however, signed just one starter. That was Jose Ureña, who has already been designated for assignment. Quote, we tried, Bill Schmidt told the Denver Gazette on Tuesday

when asked about their lack of moves. We tried. We tried to find some starters. We just couldn't find some starters. And now some starters are hurt and we don't have enough starters. We tried, though. We tried. I'm pretty sure this came up on the preview segment. Like, they might have an okay top five or so.

But if anyone goes down, they just don't really have anyone behind the actual starting rotation. So hopefully no one will get hurt all season. Yeah. Uh-oh. Uh-oh. Yeah. I mean, I think we're seeing a number of rotations sort of look back and go, oh, maybe we should have assigned a couple more guys this offseason. You know, like maybe Houston could have used another starter or two.

Yeah. You know, who could say? Yeah, some people did say that at the time. But yes, a couple of those guys have gone down. And what I meant about sort of the balancing out of losing some players and other players coming in is that we have had some fun debuts. So we're speaking on Wednesday, shortly before a double debut in the NL West.

So Gavin Stone is debuting for the Dodgers and Brandon Fott is debuting for the Diamondbacks. Fott is indeed how you pronounce that. I've been sure of that before I said it. It is indeed how you pronounce it. So Stone was ranked 60th on the Fangraphs preseason list and Fott was ranked 16th. Yeah. And those two guys, they have the same birthday.

They were born on the same day. How about that? They were drafted in the same draft round, not very apart from each other. They're in the same division. So they could be going head to head in the NL West for years to come. So're in the same division, so they could be going head-to-head in the NL West for years to come. So that's the fun thing. If someone gets hurt, it does open up a spot for some exciting prospect to come along. And then on Tuesday, of course, there was a great game between the Mariners and the A's where the Millers matched up.

Yes. So Bryce Miller, who was the 85th ranked prospect by Fangraphs, he made his debut for the Mariners. Yeah. He pitched great. Yeah, he did. But he was outpitched by the other Miller, Mason Miller, who has looked fantastic in the rare bright spot for the Oakland A's this year. And he was, what, no hit through seven, was it? And then he got pulled because of pitch count. Yes. synchronicity of young pitching prospects coming up. And I hate to think of them as like lambs to the slaughter with what we've seen with pitching for pitchers this year and elbows just going bust left and right, but you just got to call up reinforcements and it's fun to watch them until

they eventually get hurt too. Yeah. And like, sometimes it's not an elbow. Sometimes it's a shoulder, right? Like Daniel Spino is getting shoulder surgery. So he will be one of our top pitching prospects who will not debut this year. Yeah. Gosh, it's going to be like 12 to 14 months before he can resume baseball activity. Yeah. It's, it's, I, you never want that to be the reason that a guy gets his opportunity, right? That someone else has been injured.

That feels, feels, um, and, and you never liked the, but it is very cool to get to see those guys sort of start to make their way, man. I feel so bad for the, the A's Miller. Cause he probably was like, like, I did it. Yeah, I mean, that game had an attendance, announced attendance of 2,583. And look, it's a Monday game before schools are out. And I understand it's not the highest drawing circumstances. But 2,583 to see your young bright spot on the team mason miller yeah go up against another highly touted miller who's probably let's be fair is not a big draw

like other than the the prospect insiders you know probably not like all flocking to the park in oakland to see a mariners pitching prospect debut, but a pretty exciting, yeah, pretty exciting for people like us or prospect people, right? So 2,500 fans at that game, I just, I wonder how low it can go because we're at the beginning of May here. Now, of course, the weather warms up and kids get out of school and all that, but it's only going to get more depressing for the A's as the season goes on. I mean, I hate to say it, but they're only going to fall further out of that AO West race. They're only going to get more games under 500.

The run differential is going to go down. Whether or not their pace is as execrable as it has been, the numbers will get worse and the distance back will get greater so and you know i doubt there will be great news on the ballpark and city front too even if things aren't 100 official it doesn't look like anything's going to be looking up as far as staying in oakland anytime soon over the rest of this season so like why are you going to come out to the park? And then if they trade people at the deadline, not that they have that many people to trade, but if they're one of the worst teams of all time, people are going to stay away even more.

How much lower can it go? I wonder then 2,583. I mean, I was just looking back and I mean, if you look at the lowest attendance games this season, the eight games with the lowest attendance this year are all in Oakland. And if you go back to last year, there were a couple of games, there was a 2,488 in May, There were a couple games. There was a 24-88 in May, an Oakland game against the Rays. There was actually a game that was slightly under 2,500, Orioles and Red Sox in August. But that was, I think, the Little League World Series game in Williamsport.

So that's why the attendance was so low. So the lowest last year, other than that, were all at Oakland, too. But they didn't really dip much under 2500 either so that's almost like the minimum lately and i was looking to see like when was the last time you had an under 2000 attendance outside of pandemic times outside of 2020 2021 and it looks like according to baseball reference stat head the last time there was a game with an attendance that was sub-2000, non-pandemic department, was April 9th, 1997. The Blue Jays at the White Sox. And the announced attendance, or the official attendance, was 746.

And I went back to look at why that was, and I found an AP story, White Sox paid crowd of 746 smallest in 27 years. And the circumstances were, it was frigid. It was near freezing. It was early April. It was also like a rescheduled game time, I believe. So this says, on a windy day that had a game time temperature of just 34, so maybe the real feel, the wind chill factor was even lower, the game was moved from nighttime to daytime because of the cold.

The White Sox, who postponed Tuesday night's game because of the weather, sold $5 tickets that allowed fans to sit anywhere in the lower deck. I think the fans who did show up, Chicago shortstop Ozzie Guillen said, that's what we get paid for to play. Whether it's cold or wet or sunny, you have to do your job. The crowd was actually bigger than listed, including free tickets and those who use tickets from Tuesday night. Total attendance in the 44,321seat ballpark was 1,677. It's certainly the fewest I've played in front of in a major league park, said Ed Sprague. So they had not only freezing cold temperatures with wind and early in the season day game that was supposed to be a night game and it was uh kids still in school etc so everything kind of conspired against that game being uh extremely low attendance and the 1997

white socks weren't anything to write home about either and uh the 1997 blue jays were even more mediocre so that's how you get i guess a, a sub-2000 attendance. The only other instance was a September 91 game between Boston and Cleveland that was a little under 2000. So it's been a long time. It's been more than 25 years, I guess, now since you had one that low. But if the A's don't get one that low, like in the dog days this summer, I would be sort of surprised. Well, and you know, you sit there and you're like, you're disincentivizing people to even come and protest anymore because you're censoring highlights. So, what portion of the attendance are you inadvertently curbing as a result of inadvertently curbing as a result of censorious tendencies. And, you know, just to add a wrinkle, Ben,

have you seen the news out of Nevada, out of the state of Nevada? No. What? Well, so this is Passon retweeting a piece from the Nevada Independent, which is an independent newspaper in Nevada, Go Independent Press. Only 34 days remain in the Nevada legislature session. The assembly speaker, if something was going to happen, it really should have been in place last week. The A's deal to buy the land for a potential Las Vegas stadium is dependent on the passage of the $500 million tax package. And he's quoting a tweet that says Nevada's assembly speaker says the Oakland A's have not presented concrete language requesting 500 million in public money to help construct a stadium in Las Vegas. And if a proposed bill doesn't materialize soon, the legislature could, quote, run out of time.

How are they this bad at all of the things you're you mistreat your fan base? You won't invest in your club. You won't invest in a ballpark that doesn't have a giant real estate development attached to it in Oakland. And then are you maybe fumbling in the place where they famously are like, everyone's a mark, let's give away some money. What are we doing? And, you know, that's insulting to the Nevada assembly. I should, I should be careful because, you know, hopefully they're just going to look at this and say, go try to find a mark elsewhere. It's not us. I don't know, man. What a mess. Is concrete language about building a ballpark related to, I won't even finish that. I won't even finish that terrible joke. I don't, I don't know that, know that knowing me has always been to your benefit. You know, I feel like sometimes it's let you down.

They're building, they're using cement language instead. Is cement different from concrete? One of them is a part of the other. Yes. One of them. Yes, cement is an ingredient of concrete. In concrete, I believe, right? And then it stabilizes all of the other stuff that goes in it. It helps to keep it together. I just watched a thing. Construction experts over here.

Yeah. Well, I, you know, it's funny that you say that because I just watched a thing on like the apparently manufacturing. Wait, which is it that's the ingredient and the other cement is the ingredient of concrete okay um apparently um cement the process for making cement oh yeah bad for the environment horrible for the environment just really really really a problem. And so, you know, it is a shockingly high contributor to global warming. The creation of cement really, you know, you can't, you just can't take these things for granted. I had no idea. I watched a Vox Explainer video about it, and now I'm all worked up about cement. Well, I guess they've lost some leverage with Oakland now, so I don't know whether that means that their new destination might play more hardball or whether this is just the A's dropping the ball. Regardless, I mean, do you even still want the A's if you're A's fans at this point? Like, do you want them to screw up this move and stay?

Or are you like good riddance at this point? I don't know, but I think what you want is for, well, I'm sure that there are a lot of different feelings about it, but if it were, sell the team would be nice. Yes,

that would be, yes, that that's the punchline here. If it were me, I would want the Las Vegas project to fall apart and not be viable and for Fisher to sell the team. And then, you know, you're still in a you're still in a fix because that that ballpark is not a bigly quality ballpark anymore like and i wonder here's the thing that we should probably try to find out this you know like could be a little bit of reporting that we do like is there a point at which the players association can say this isn't tenable like this isn't a safe playing environment right because i know that there are rules around that stuff like you have to have lights of a certain quality they have to have a certain luminosity and brightness. At some point, you know, well, it's not like the PA has been shy

about filing grievances against the A's. But it's just like, this feels like a, you need to get OSHA involved. Yeah, right. Yeah. I mean, I guess the possums aren't necessarily posing a danger to players, but even so, that is maybe just a symptom. It has to smell in there, man. Yeah. Well, there's that. Like, yeah, not in the whole ballpark, but like that broadcast booth, don't you think it probably smells? Probably smells really bad. Yeah. Where was it that players complained about rat urine smell? That was Dodger Stadium, I think. I think that's right. I think that's right. And if I recall, they had to do something about that, right? I think it was the Mets complained about the rat urine smell.

was a a bit of subterfuge it was a bit of sabotage that's the word i want sabotage that they were trying to throw them off their game by by making it smell horrible which i gotta tell you that's a that's an effective because i'm like a very smell sensitive person um and it can it can ruin your whole day you know it can just really wreck your whole day. Yeah. I meant to mention, though, that that dual debut of Stone and Fott, that NL West race is shaping up to be a fun one, right? So fun. Yeah. Only two games, I believe, separate the Dodgers, Padres, and Diamondbacks currently. Correct.

And now the Dodgers do have the highest division winning odds, according to Fangraphs. So we were all sort of saying, is this the year that the Padres finally catch them? It absolutely could be, but the Padres were favored by the playoff odds when the season started and they no longer are. It's still pretty close. It's like 48% Dodgers, 40% Padres, oh, 5% Diamondbacks that the Giants actually still have higher division odds than the Diamondbacks do. But really- We can't incorporate pesky into the math yet. We haven't figured out a way to factor in pesky to the model. Yeah. So there's not a ton of separation here. The Dodgers are 18 and 13, and the Padres are 16 and 15 and the Diamondbacks are 16 and 14, but it's looking like a fun one.

It's looking like the Diamondbacks will at least make some noise as they say. So they'll stick around and be competitive. And maybe the Dodgers and the Padres will pull away from the Diamondbacks or maybe one will pull away, but I don't know. You can't like the Dodgers. They're calling up Gavin Stone and they're playing Mookie Betts at shortstop and they're spinning a lot of plates and doing a lot of juggling. And there's just not a lot of depth there. And I think I saw a quote from Fabian Ardaia recently about how Trey Turner was saying

that he never really got any interest from the Dodgers. They talked a couple of times, but there was never any offer or anything. And he would have been interested in staying if they had made a competitive offer. So all along, they were knowing that they were going to go into this with less depth than they have had. And then of course, Gavin Lux got hurt

and other guys got hurt, but they have Dodgers-ed it thus far and they have made it work. And they're in first place and they're in first place and they're in pole position, a fairly fragile pole position, but still they're there. But look out Ben, because, you know, the Diamondbacks now have a positive run differential. So it's all bets are, all bets are off, you know, they're coming, they're coming for you. FOTS are really fun. That's a nice, that's a satisfying name to say.

It's a fun name. If you look at the Zips, both the Zips Top 100 and then just the projections more generally from a preseason perspective, Dan was like, wow, Zips are really in love with the Diamondbacks. They were, they, Zips, the system, what am I trying to say? It. It, yep, there you go. The system, especially on the pitching side, was like really cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs when it comes to the Diamondbacks. They've been fun.

Yeah, they've been fun. They have been fun and pesky. Yes. Speaking of divisions, I meant to bring up the AL East because the degree of dominance of the AL East teams have winning records, and I believe positive run differentials. The Orioles are 20-9? Their collective record as a division is 95-56, which is a 6-29 winning percentage, which is like, that's a 102 win pace over the course of a full season, basically, if it were one team. And outside of their division, they've been even more dominant, as you would expect. So against non-AL East opponents, AL East teams are collectively 74-35 entering Wednesday's games. That's a 679 winning percentage. That's like a 110 win pace. And a lot of those wins, as one would imagine, are coming at the expense of the AL Central, which is the team at the other end of the spectrum.

So the AL Central collectively 57 and 90, one team, the Twins, that has a winning record. So their collective winning percentage is 388. That's like a 63 win pace over 162 game season. And outside of the AL Central, AL Central teams are 43 and 76. That's a 361 winning percentage. That's like a 58, 59 win pace over the course of a 162 game season. So AL Central teams getting their asses kicked al east team's doing a lot of the ass kicking and basically the al east is on pace to be the best division ever as measured by results outside of the division there's a possibility like the latest that all teams have been above

500 at some point in the division was the 2005 NL East, which was a weird one. And all five teams were over 500 through October 1st, the second to last day of the season, because the Nationals lost their last game and finished 81 and 81. So that division, every team was 500 or better. So they might not set a lot of history there, but just going outside the division, they are just totally trouncing other teams. And obviously you have the balanced or more balanced schedule now. So AL East teams are playing AL East teams fewer times, beating up on each other a little less, beating up on everyone else a little more. So that has hurt the Central somewhat and helped the East somewhat. It's not an enormous difference. One division is just really strong and the other is really weak

regardless, but that's just exacerbating the results here. So, we got to like break up the AL East. I mean, I guess we could have said that for much of the last couple decades. Yeah, this isn't much of a new phenomenon, although this level of dominance feels, simultaneous dominance feels new to me. Yeah, like the East Coast bias of the American League here is pretty strong. We're listening to the East pretty significantly here. The Central is taken on water. And the Yankees and the Red Sox are in fourth and fifth, respectively, which I saw was like the first time that those two teams had been the bottom ones in the AL East since some long time ago. Right. But all these teams are pretty strong.

And there is a possibility that we could get four AL East playoff teams. That is very conceivable. I have conceived it, and I am considering it quite possible. Because, I mean, right now you have the Rays are basically locks off to their 24-6 start, and they've got 96% chance to make the playoffs, a 66% chance to win the division. Then you have still the Blue Jays given a 78% chance to make the playoffs, the Yankees 63%. Then you have the Orioles and the Red Sox adding up to greater than 50% because you have the Orioles at 37%, the Red Sox at 27.5%.

It's possible that four of these teams could make the playoffs, which is just pretty wild. So it's just quite a concentration of talent. And it'd be nice if we could sort of spread the wealth somehow, which I don't know how you do other than the radical realignment possibilities that we talked about in a recent Pass Blast. But boy, the contrast is extremely strong. Yeah, it's pretty remarkable. Do you ever take a couple days off to hang out with your sister and then go, the Orioles are 20 and 9? Well, I don't have a sister, so no.

But the Orioles part, yeah. Man, the A's have really just only won six games. Man, they have really only won six games. I'm sorry, they don't play in the East. I mean, thank God for that for them. That would equalize things somewhat. A little bit. If we could transfer an AL East team to the AL West, just trade the A's for someone, then that would balance things out a bit.

Yeah, gosh, and who could you even do that with, I guess? I mean, you can't because they're all so far away. But yeah, wow, it's really quite something. And again, we knew that this was likely to be true, that there would be really strong, that both of the east divisions would be quite strong that there would be parts of the central divisions that were good but that the rest would be kind of garbo and then you know we anticipated the nl west being very strong and we thought that parts of the al west would be strong i find the al west to be a kind of

disappointing division so far ben do you feel a a little underwhelmed by the West? The AL West, that is? I feel underwhelmed by the AL West. The Astros are a little less super teamy than they've been. And the A's, as we've just discussed, are historically terrible. And then the Mariners have not been quite as fun as the 2022 Mariners as of yet. And the Angels are the Angels, so they're hanging in there. They're hanging in.

They're hanging in so far. The Rangers have been decent, right? They're making a run at trying to buy their way into a contending team. I mean, they're 18-11 thus far. So, yeah. Wow. Here are two contrasting numbers. Are you prepared for some contrasting numbers? Sure. The Rays have a plus 106 run differential.

Yeah. The A's have a negative 118 run differential. They sure do. They sure do. They sure do. Clubs in the East, they are quite good, and I think that they will remain quite good. And then they'll, you know, probably not be quite this good, but they'll still be good. And they've developed cushion to be less good and still remain quite good. How many times can I say the word good? Good.

Well, make up for not saying it when we talked about the A's. But it's hard not to rubberneck when it comes to the A's, and then it's hard not to marvel at the Rays and the rest of the East. I guess the question is, which AL East team do you think is actually the best? Not necessarily which will finish with the best record, because the Rays obviously have a large lead there, but which is the best from today on, let's say, or the most formidable playoff opponent should they make the playoffs. Because looking at, say, the Fangraph's depth charts, which is not, I think, subject to strength of schedule. If you look at the playoff odds, then strength of schedule plays a part. Right. The projected standings do not have strength of schedule baked in.

That is correct. So if you look at the playoff odds page, then the projected rest of season winning percentages, which does take into account the schedule, the Rays are at 541, the Blue Jays are at 540, the Yankees are at 539. That's too close to call. That is two points of winning percentage separating them. If you look at the schedule independent projected rest of season winning percentage, then you have the Rays at 553, the Jays at 549, the Yankees at 546. So really doesn't make a whole lot of difference. You look at the Yankees right now and they are extremely banged up.

Yeah, they seem like a not fun team to watch at the moment. Something like half of their payroll is on the IL, I think. And, you know, the usual suspects, right? Not exactly guys who are models of durability for the most part, too. So I guess you get what you pay for it. You get what you sign and you reap what you sow in that respect. But they're still a solid team. And I guess it's just it's hard to say the Rays are not the best team in that division, even though a month ago, relatively few people would have said that, right? I mean, people pick them to be a playoff team, but not necessarily to win that division generally. So having seen their display of dominance thus far, I guess it would be hard not to crown them as the cream of

the crop currently. Well, and it just goes to show, you know, as we were watching their, you know, win streak to open the season and we were trying to discern how much signal there was in the noise and what it meant and, you know, whether it should alter our understanding of them. I think that the power of banking all those wins, when you look at how close sort of the rest of season stuff is projected to be like it, it's quite meaningful, right? They have this cushion. They just, and the other teams in the East have some cushion too, but man, not as much. They've got, it's like a real princess and the pea situation. They're all on top of a bunch of cushions.

Are they, or are they multiple mattresses? I don't remember that book. Yeah, it's a lot of mattresses. I was like, why are we making fun of her for being discerning and having a bonky back? That's very relatable. Why are we so mad at this princess? Of all the princess problems,

that's like a really normal princess problem. It's true. Yeah, they get into way worse scrapes than being bothered by a people. Yeah. So I mentioned in the outro last time, this is sort of on the subject of the A's, though the A's in better days. I was noting in the outro that Byron Buxton had homered again after 10,000 Rakes, which I believe that for the pedantic among you that listener and Patreon supporter Chris Hannell, along with frequent StatBlast consultant Ryan Nelson, confirmed that they have not actually hit 10,000 homers since the team has been playing in Minnesota, it's like 8,800 or something. Although I guess you can rake without hitting a homer. So there's that. Anyway, what I noted was that I liked the creativity of the Land of 10,000 rakes celebration, but they had gone about it in this very intentional

plan sort of way. Like they had a little committee on the team that was like, all right, what's our home run celebration going to be? We got to come up with some kind of coordinated ritual here. And then they went out and they bought props and they sort of like put it to the committee. I comped it to the office party planning committee. Like it's just become so routine now that you have to have a home run celebration. And I wondered which team was patient zero for this. Like When did this start? Because it's crept in bit by bit, and we've seen this gradually take over, but it feels like it's reached some kind of critical mass this season where it's like you're the outlier if you don't have one of these celebrations. So I put it to the listeners, which was the first team to do this?

Because I was thinking, like, was it the 2019 Nats and their dance parties? And then the Red Sox laundry carts came after that. But some people sent in several that preceded that. A lot of people mentioned the Dodgers bubble dispenser in 2014 when they had, like, the bubble machine and they would turn on the bubble machine in the dugout. And then MLB, for some reason, got mad about that and told them to stop doing the bubbles. What was the rationale for that? I found this LA Times article from back then where AJ Ellis was saying everybody has their own way to celebrate a home run.

Now, that was 2014, and he was already saying, like, everyone does this. But I think he meant it a little differently. He said ours includes a prop. So does Milwaukee, a guy sliding down a slide. So does New York with a big apple popping up in center field. So many teams are firing off fireworks. It's fun for the fans. It's a little innocent thing.

This game is serious enough as it is. We get criticized enough for being stoic. So the examples that he listed there are all non-player involved ones though, right? Like guy sliding down a slide, apple rising up, fireworks. Those are not player centric. And that's the kind that we're talking about here. The earliest example that people have reminded me of Those are not player-centric, and that's the kind that we're talking about here. let kind of there'd be just a tunnel of of humanity and teammates would gather i think

sometimes maybe it was at the plate but more often in the dugout and you would just kind of run between them you know just run between the outstretched arms the tunnel formed by players upraised arms and that was i think a home run ritual that would be recognizable today that was kind of the early one maybe maybe. Maybe that was the one that set the tone or a precursor, but there could be even earlier precedent. So if anyone can beat that, if anyone can conjure an even earlier example. And some of this, I guess it's kind of hard to differentiate. You always, you know, going back to the high five, I guess you had some sort of celebration. Sure. Right. Yeah, what do we mean when we're trying to differentiate this era versus prior ones?

Maybe it's a you-know-it-when-you-see-it thing. And I'm sure that in Little League and softball and other places, there were maybe more coordinated celebrations than there were in MLB, and it took a little time for that to rise up and percolate. So did the 2013 A's start this? Did it take a decade to reach this critical mass, this tipping point where it's just almost standard expected? It's like if you don't have

a home run celebration yet, you got to appoint players to come up with one or else you'll, it's like it used to be like, oh, wow, this team must have great chemistry and camaraderie. Look at them having their fun little celebration here.

Now it's almost like if you don't have one, it's like, huh, I wonder what's wrong with those guys. It's just the fun police over here. So that's kind of what I raised the other day is that I don't know that we can actually conclude anything about the character of the team anymore. You can't see this and say oh wow these guys get along great and they're really having fun out there yeah it's it's just become de rigueur it's like expected so maybe if you don't have one then it's like a real stick in the muds over here yeah taking themselves too seriously but but otherwise it's just kind of yeah this is a new ritual and like sam miller chronicled, like people didn't always used to do dog piles after winning the World Series or pile on players who just hit a walk off something or other.

Right. I mean, those celebrations used to be more restrained and less choreographed. And so maybe this is the natural evolution. It's a visual sport to some extent. Like we're providing entertainment. We've got cameras everywhere. You know, this stuff is caught in the dugout and it's part of the spectacle. It's part of the entertainment. You're expected to be entertaining when you're in the dugout too.

So there is a performative aspect to it that I guess, I mean, it is entirely performative, really, but it could get tiresome. I certainly don't mind it in theory, but, you know, when everyone does it, it's like the occasionally a baseball player will do something funny and then everyone will copy it and it won't really be that funny anymore. I mean, speaking of home runs and celebrations, Fat just left a change up to Jonah Hyman. It went into the seats. So he's clearly terrible. No, I'm not saying that.

I don't know what to do about the home run celebration stuff because I don't want, if people enjoy them, you know, if you're inclined to enjoy them, if they feel genuine and enthusiastic and lovely to you then i'm glad for you but i i do feel like some of them are they're a little try hard you know and um i think on its at its core some of this is that i'm i'm not a big like prop comedy person you know no that's not my preferred genre of comedy and so it all it can all feel a little forced, right? Yes. And particularly when you'll hear about teens ordering or procuring a specific artifact to assist in the celebration. And then I'm like, you know the if somebody doesn't have that at home you know if it's not if it doesn't belong to a player if he doesn't have a little tag inside

that says property of my trail then it feels like too much like i i have a controversial take okay i don't like the mariners trident i think much. I don't like it. Really? I don't like it. And I think that part of, I think you're right that so many teams are doing this now. It feels like a thing that everyone has to do. Like, the way that we demonstrate that we are fun and light and don't take ourselves too seriously is to have a sacred raccoon. And we hoist it above our heads when we hit a home run. And then we all pray to the sacred raccoon, or like, whatever, you know? I didn't want to pick a possum because it's loaded, you know? That's a great Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 tie-in.

I know that's what you were going for. That's exactly what I was going for. Can I tangent for a quick second? How long has that movie been? Is it seven hours long? No. Why are they always so long? Yeah movie been? Is it seven hours long? No. Why are they always so long? Yeah, this one is, it's not that long.

It didn't feel that long to me, at least. No, it's not like an endgame marathon. Oh my god. They should have had an intermission in Endgame. I think it was rude to not have an intermission in that movie, actually. Guardians is apparently two hours and 29 minutes. So it's not short minutes so it's not short but but it's not as long as other things are but because teams seem to have this sense

of obligation around it they are they're all just doing one like regardless of record i mean not all of them but a lot of them are just sort of doing one regardless of record. And because it feels inorganic, it doesn't give you the sense of like, well, you know, they still have a sense of fun and frivolity. And so even though, you know, maybe their record is under 500, like they're going to pull themselves out of it. They have this trident, right? Instead it feels try hard. And so then I feel a little, like, embarrassed watching them. You know, I feel like I'm watching, I don't know, pick a show that makes you feel embarrassed. So, I don't, I, it doesn't feel authentic, and so it feels like, on some level, there must be someone in that dugout that's like, we're really doing, we're doing this.

Yeah, that was my question early on when we talked about that at the beginning of the season. You know, is everyone on board with this? Some people have to go along because of peer pressure. Are some people over it at some point? And everyone else is like, no, we got to keep up appearances. We're still into this thing. This joke is still great. Yeah, my initial reaction to the the Mariners Trident was positive. I do think that there's something to be said for the fact that maybe we

know too much. Maybe we're overexposed to everything that's going on in Major League Baseball. So to us, it's almost like sometimes I'll see a great joke on Twitter and I'll think that was really clever. And then if I search for it, I'll see that it has been made many times before by many other people. And then I'll just think nothing is original, nothing new under the sun. We're all just copying each other, whether we know it or not. Because baseball fans in many cases follow their team and no other team very closely, perhaps they do not have the same sense of fatigue and tryhardness, right? Because they don't know the other team's

celebrations. I guess they might see them if it happens against their team, but that might not even show up on their local team's broadcast. So for us, you know, up here surveying the league from our great remove, from our perspective, our all-seeing eyes over here, and of course, listeners of Effectively Wild, who are very plugged into the sport as a whole. We know that this is sweeping the nation, but many fans who are just like, hey, until the playoffs roll around at least, I'm just kind of paying attention to my team. They might not be so fatigued by it. They might think, oh, this is like our team hasn't done this before, you know? So this is fun and new and creative. Or at most, they're being exposed to one new home run celebration every season.

So they think, all right, that was last season's model and this is the season's version. So this is fun. And it is kind of a way, I guess, to keep the season straight in your mind or like place a highlight that you see, oh, that was the year that we were doing dance parties. Oh, that was the year we had a trident, whatever it was like. That was part of the identity of that team. It's slightly different from the identity of this team, even though every team has its own thing at this

point yeah but it's like does it does it really help you to situate yourself in time because if if every year has a thing yeah are you really gonna remember all the weird artifacts that get like imbued with special powers unless it is the sacred raccoon. Yeah. I don't know. To me, it does feel like it's kind of tipped over into obligatory territory. So it doesn't make me mad or anything. I'm not upset about this. I'm not even as upset about this as I am about in-game interviews.

Like it doesn't bother me in any way. It just, it does not thrill me or tickle me or delight me the way that it did maybe the first few times. Yeah, I think I'm not, like, angry about it. I'm just not, I'm not compelled. I don't, I don't like it, but I don't feel worked up about it. You know what I mean? Like, I'm, I'm whispering my objection into the microphone. And also, you know i i don't feel like i need to you know write a letter to anybody about it i just i'm like this doesn't no spark does not need to ban the bubble machines we're just we're just saying see that one is so strange too because didn't there i remember, I remember a time in my life where at one point, family weddings, people threw rice.

And then they stopped doing that because it's bad because the birds will eat all the rice and then it expands in their stomach and then you get explosive birds. It's very bad for them and you need to be mindful of the other creatures that inhabit the planet with us like the sacred raccoon and so then then the the trend was to do bubbles you know when a couple was leaving their their reception or even just the wedding ceremony to like blow bubbles because they just you know they pop and disperse and they they look cool and they give you a thing to do, but you're not jeopardizing any pigeons, you know? No animals were harmed in the course of this wedding kind of a situation. So, aren't bubbles like meant to be a positive alternative? What possible damage could just bubbles do, you know?

Yeah. Well, that's an excellent question. Bubbles do, you know? Yeah. Well, that's an excellent question. And A.J. Ellis, in that same LA Times article, he raised the same question about what harm could possibly be done here. And he said that the worst that could happen is that someone gets soap in their eye. He said it's not hurting anyone other than bubble soap getting in someone's eye. It shouldn't be a big deal.

But don't they make – and yeah, because it's not a big deal. Because I think that this, I think it'd be fine, you know? I think it would be fine. My 18-month-old daughter is obsessed with a little bubble machine we have now. Oh, yeah. If it's safe for her, I think it's safe for major leaguers, so. I mean, like, bubbles are, bubbles are great. Mm-hmm, yeah. sounds like a real stoner make

that have you ever seen bubbles ben they float and they're iridescent and then they pop iridescent they remind you of the fragility of life it's sort of sad when a bubble pops i'm not convinced you've ever smoked marijuana you can catch a bubble on your hand sometimes, but it's the impermanence of existence. Not even one little edible. Not even one for you, I don't think. If I had to guess. I've not gotten great reactions to my attempts. That's fine.

To be clear, I'm not, this isn't like an after-school special. I'm not pressuring you to do graphics. I think I'm one of these people who has that uh that like contentment gene or whatever it is and it makes it hard to get high because you're just like high on life all the time wow the natural high i think that's the issue wow anyway brag ben i'm just constantly tripping yeah probably people with this podcast would agree. Over here possessed of exactly the right amount of serotonin. Jonah Heim, before that home run, you mentioned that he just hit off of Brandon Pott. He's 14th in overall war among all players.

Yeah, he's having a great year. He's having a really good year. It's really cool. Yeah. Yeah. I meant to mention on the AL West catching front, now that we mentioned Jonah Heim. If you're the Angels, do you sign Gary Sanchez, who is now a free agent? Again, we talked about the Angels' semi-desperate catching situation the other day because Logan Ohapi seems to be out for an indefinite period. So they're making do with Chad Wallach and Matt Dice. And those guys have, I guess,

exceeded expectations, certainly offensively so far. But they are one of the worst projected teams at catcher. And I read those trying to convince everyone that this is fine quotes the other day from Phil Nevin and Perry Manassian, where they're like, yeah, well, we like what we have back there, you know, but Manassian was also saying that they're going to keep their eyes, they're going to monitor, they're going to be

looking for some help, like the Rockies are with starting pitching. So if you're the Angels, do you take a flyer on Gary Sanchez, who's now a free agent again? I just, like, man, I mean,

I don't know, man. How far has Gary Sanchez fallen that this is even a question? I know, it really bumps me out. Right? Like, he just, because he opted out of his contract. He was with the Giants in AAA after not being anywhere for a while. Right. And the Giants are not exactly strong at catcher.

I mean, they have Blake Sable and Joey Bart, who are also among the worst projected catchers. They have been fairly productive so far, but I guess they told Thierry Sanchez they weren't going to add him to their major league roster now, so he exercised this opt-out. And you'd have to be pretty desperate, I guess, at this point to sign him,

because the Giants had lost Roberto Perez to shoulder surgery, too. So, you'd think, I mean, I guess that's why they signed Gary Sanchez in the first place. And even they were like, eh, we're good. Yeah. So, are things rough enough for the Angels that you would give him a shot? I mean, I guess, like, is it worth, well, let's look. They have a full 40 man, you know? Yeah. He does project to be better than Chad Wallach, which is not saying a lot.

Yeah, that doesn't say a lot. I think he doesn't project to be better than Matt Theis. No, I don't think so. But really, it's thin. it's uh thin slim pickens over there and the concerning thing one of the many concerning things is how he was hitting in triple a with the giants a small sample but 16 games for sacramento he batted 164, 319, 182 with no homers and 19 strikeouts. Well, and it's not like he, you know, he's not a defensive standout. So there's not really another, there's not another skill to sort of buttress the profile and make you feel like, well, at the very, you know, at the very least, he's going to frame really well or what have you.

It's just been a not great situation there from top to bottom. And so I don't know. I mean, maybe you give him a shot, but I don't know that even with the projections that you would feel so confident that he'll be so much better than Wallach that it's worth doing that. According to StatCast, he was a cromulent catcher last year defensively. I know he has a terrible reputation, which is largely because of the blocking issues he had in New York.

But he did seem to get those under control last year in Minnesota, and they've done good work with catchers defensively. So StatCast has him at only two blocks above average or two blocks below average, which they have him at like zero blocking runs. And then they have him at two caught stealings above average. So one stealing run, catcher stealing run above average. And then I think framing, they have him at like one run above average too. So he was like, okay, if you buy that, like he was fine.

He was average-ish as a catcher. And what a weird world where like he might be average at catcher, but significantly below average at hitting, which is like the opposite of what he was when he first came up. So it's just been a steep descent. Like he's only 30 years old. Right.

But just coming up the way he did and raising expectations, perhaps to an unrealistic point with what he did in 53 games, hitting 20 bombs and finishing as the rookie of the year runner-up in 2016. And then an all-star and getting MVP votes and winning a Silver Slugger in 2017 over 122 games. And then he's, I mean, he was an all-star again in 2019. So he had some years, but gosh, the last three have been extremely rough. Yeah, it's been tough sledding for sure. I don't know. I don't know that I would. I wouldn't, if they did it, I wouldn't be like, wow, that's a terrible move.

But I also don't know how much it really moves the needle for them. Although, you know, your ability to ask some members of the coaching staff might be curbed because the Angels aren't making their people available to the media. Yes, yes, yes. Sam Blum noted that the Angels are, I guess, now sort of screening coaches' calls when it comes to reporter interview requests. And if there's a line of questioning that is perceived to be negative, then they will bar your access to the coaches and have you direct those questions to Phil Nevin. I don't think they're the only team that has restricted access to coaches. I know that the Tigers have done that to a great extent too, but it is extremely angels of them to do this sort of thing.

Someone might ask us about bad stuff, so let's just not allow them to ask us anything. Not the best. It isn't the best. It's not the best of the Tigers to it, you know? It's just not a great policy. All right. Just a couple stray observations. One, Bryce Harper's back. Yeah, how about that? factor he did set the record easily for a return from tommy john surgery even for position players and look he looked like he was in his first game back from tommy john surgery and he went over four he had three strikeouts in his first time out there so as we discussed no rehab assignment for him so i guess the advanced hitting machines uh didn't do the job in the first game back. I always want to call them hitting machines, but they're pitching machines.

Yeah. I mean, you hit off them, but they pitch to you. Yeah. So they are pitching machines. Yeah. It's like how I always get temporarily a little bit unsure when an injury will be reported and then they'll say the x-rays were negative and i'm like you mean that there wasn't a break but also what yeah can't come up with a better way to say that that makes it clear that the x-rays were you should be like the x-rays were

fine yeah they were fine technical term the doctor said it was fine it was fine he is one of the leading main characters of the sport so it's nice to have him back, even if in initially diminished form. And the Phillies could use a healthy and productive Bryce Harper. So hopefully he will be that sometime soon. Well, you know, maybe it just it takes a little while to get like used to the adamantium. You know, you got to. Right. You're uncomfy.

And because he didn't have a rehab start, he hasn't had game action with it before so you know he had to like kind of get you know it's like when a house settles yeah you wouldn't know about that you live in an apartment but you you know the concept of like the house some creaking yeah yeah it's like that oh ben i feel like i should say you know because um not everyone well i don't have to go into all of the issues that um the cat had this weekend the people who listen to our patreon bonus episode know um my my pet and vet saga but i just want those who are worried and wondering babs is fine okay good yeah people have been in suspense since episode 2000. Is Meg's cat okay? I have felt validated by all of the people who have emailed or messaged saying that, like, yes, they have also spent a lot of money on tiny creatures that don't know their names. Yes.

So, I feel validated. That seemed to strike a chord. And the helicopters that were circling around your house, they have departed, too, I assume. Yeah, they're gone. But the reason for their presence still a mystery ben it's still a mystery i mean not really it was probably like an accident on the highway but they were sure around they were hanging out a lot don't know don't know about that and one other enno east note is that the marlins are 10 and 0 in one run games

yeah i don't know what to make of that it's just they're 10 and 0 in one-run games. Yeah. I don't know what to make of that. It's just they're 10-0 in one-run games. So if you're looking at the Marlins record and saying, hey, look at that. The Marlins are a winning team. They're 16-14. How about those red-hot Miami Marlins? They have exceeded their base runs record by four wins now. They are the only team to do that.

So their quote-unquote deserved record is 12-18. But look, a great record in one-run games that has made managers careers and strengthened managers and executives' job security. And it has also greatly weakened and eroded and ended it, as it maybe did in Texas last year. So just the variances and the vagaries of those games that could go either way can really prop up a season that would be extremely depressing or make one that would otherwise look strong seem a lot weaker than it is. So I don't think that will continue, but 10-0 in one-run games over basically a month of the season, Like that is a lot of luck in one run games, just concentrated in a fairly short span of time. So they are looking a lot rosier than they would

without that. Even if they were five and five in those games, you'd be looking at them a little differently than we are, I think. Yeah, I think that that is correct, but there's nothing. And then the blowouts, I don't know, what a fun, weird team. Fun there's nothing. And then the blowouts. I don't know. What a fun, weird team. Fun, weird team. And the last thing I saw, Joshian had a note about this in his newsletter, but we've been talking about some of the nominative determinism players

recently and how maybe they should be name swapped and Peyton Battenfield and Josh Outman and James Outman. Sorry, wrong Outman. Right. But we've been talking about how maybe one would make more sense as a pitcher or a batter than the other. But I have probably been remiss in mentioning Colin Holderman, who is also an excellent one. Right. And Joe pointed out that Colin Holderman, the Pirates reliever, his usage pattern

this year, he is living the Holderman lifestyle. He is getting holds basically every time out. He has been used 13 times entering Wednesday. All 13 times have been one-inning outings in the eighth inning. I mean, that is as standardized a usage pattern as I can recall over that many outings. Same length, same inning. He is the eighth-inning guy, and he is no other inning guy, but he has gotten holds in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 of those 13 outings. There were three that he came in. I guess he didn't get a hold.

I guess, I don't know if it was tied at the time or they were losing or what. And then there was one where he blew a lead, I think, and took the loss. Other than that, when Colin Holderman pitches, he is holding. He's getting a hold every time out there. So I challenge the listeners to come up with a better example in baseball history of a player who is doing the thing that his name dictates more so than Colin Holderman is doing. Because the outmans, like James Outman, not making many outs. Josh Outman, he wasn't the greatest out getter. He got a lot of outs, but, you know, he wasn't anything special.

And then like, you know, Bob Walk is often cited, but he wasn't someone with great control problems. He wasn't walking the ballpark. Grant Balfour, Balfour, Balfour is often cited here. And he was a little wilder. So he's not a bad one. But, you know, I just, I don't know that he is coming any closer to making good on his name than Colin Holderman is right now. I mean, he is living the Holderman lifestyle. Yeah. Yeah. It's um, do you think he's aware of it? Does it strike him as being must be right? Right? holds holds are sort of a strange stat that I don't pay a

whole lot of attention to. But if I were a reliever in the role that Colin Holderman is, I guess I would be aware of them, right? So that's something that I assume could be used in arbitration and probably semi-important to a reliever. So yeah. I mean, holds are not like that telling a stat or they're not of that long ago of vintage, right? So yeah. I mean, the thing about Grant Balfour that's great is that his name is also a sentence. I mean, it's not a sentence, but it could be, right? It's an imperative. I mean, Grant Balfour, right? Which is something that he would do sometimes as he would Grant Balfour. So, that's probably the best one, I think, prior to Colin Holderman.

That makes it sound like he's being very generous to the hitters, right? Like, I grant you ball four, you know? I grant it to you. It's like, oh, here, a gift. Yep. I think he currently leads MLB in holds, or at least he did as of a few days ago. Yeah. I think that that's right. I think I saw that on Twitter.com. Yeah. Eric Gagné, I mean, in French, that means wind, I think. And he would often pitch in wins, but he would not be credited with wins all that often. Right.

Yeah. I like Colin Holderman a lot. I mean, there was a thread about this in the Facebook group recently. Russell Carlton pointed out Scott Bales, who would sometimes bail Cleveland out of jams. So there's something. But yeah, I don't think you can beat Holderman. If you're a fan of the opposing team and someone hits a home run off Gagne, do you go, Gagne! Is it like that? Do you do that? Maybe, baby baby maybe you could have yeah does it have to be holdman in order to be truly like is is the fact that it's holderman you know does that wreck it spoil it at

all because you could be like um no it doesn't you could be like you know you know sometimes um people refer to like boats as as hers it's like boats are yeah female you could you could you could be like holder man you know like that like the manager's coming up there trying to give instructions like what what am i supposed to do skip hold on man you know like that i think it's fine i mean that would be a weird thing to say because, like, who talks like that? But if anyone does, I think it's probably a big league manager or pitching coach. You know, that works too. All right.

Let's end with the pass blast, which comes to us from 2002 and from David Lewis, who is an architectural historian and baseball researcher based in Boston. And he writes, 2002, is using steroids cheating? That was the question asked by Bradenton, Florida, Herald writer Roger Mooney in a June 30th, 2002 column. Mooney began his column by recounting various ways in which baseball players have towed the line of cheating throughout the years, writing, skirting the rules has been a part of baseball for as long as there have been in which baseball players have towed the line of cheating throughout the years, writing, Mooney then moves to the high-tech, sophisticated way

players were beginning to skirt the rules with steroids. He questions whether star players such as Barry Bonds and Mark McGuire are using them and notes that Commissioner Bud Selig had expressed a desire to begin testing for illegal substances. Mooney examined responses to reported use of steroids around baseball while some players joined the call for drug testing, others said to each his own, or it's hard to say whether steroids were helping. Comparing steroid use to other forms of cheating and their place in the game. Mooney concluded until baseball can find a way to deal with steroids.

The problem remains a moral issue. The other forms of cheating are simply part of the game. Grounds crews will keep the infield grass taller on days when a sinker ball pitcher is throwing for the home team and add a little water around first base when the league's leader in stolen bases comes to town. Players in the dugouts will try to steal the signs from the third base coach while runners on second will try to let the hitter know what pitch to expect. And pitchers, young and old, will try and put a little extra on the ball to get an out. That part of the game is actually taught, although not by anyone you know. So yeah, steroids, we're still arguing over what the effects were.

But was it cheating? Yeah, I think 20 plus years later. I feel comfortable with that. I'm pretty confident in saying, yeah, that was cheating. All right. It occurs to me, by the way, that the AL East, AL Central imbalance, not necessarily something that's going to change anytime soon. Yeah. going to change anytime soon.

I mean, I guess you could figure that from the fact that that has kind of traditionally been the division there. The centrals have been weak for a while and Easts have been strong for a while. But even just looking at the individual teams, who's going to get so much better than they currently are in the central? You would hope that the Royals would get considerably better over the next few years. But are the Twins going to get a whole lot better than that? Like, they're good as they are, but are they going to get better? Are the White Sox going to get better?

Seems like, if anything. Seems like not. Yeah. Seems like that might get worse on purpose. Yeah. And then could the Guardians get better? I guess they could. Yeah. And then could the Guardians get better? I guess they could. But there's no potential super team in the mix, seemingly, unless every Royals prospect suddenly hits and they start spending. It doesn't seem like that's going to be a powerhouse anytime soon. And I guess you could hope for better things for the Tigers, obviously, too.

But it seems like they're still a ways away. I mean, they've basically re-rebuilt. So that's going to be a while. And in the AL East, it's not like there are teams there that you look at and think their window is about to be closed, necessarily, like the Orioles

are on the upswing. And most of those other teams are typically kind of good year in and year out. So unless there is realignment, closed necessarily, like the Orioles are on the upswing and most of those other teams are typically kind of good year in and year out. So unless there is realignment and the teams just change divisions or we do away with divisions the way we have them now, I don't know if it's going to look any different. Yeah, I think that the magnitude of the gap might shift around, you know, but I don't think that the gap will diminish in a way that doesn't get remarked upon, you know, like that doesn't get remarked

upon. It's not like we're going to be like, oh, they're all the same. You know what I mean? Yeah. Yeah. All right. We can end there. Well, Brandon Fott and Gavin Stone had pretty rocky debuts, but both of their teams won,

so they couldn't quite match the Bryce Miller-Mason Miller matchup, which, by the way, was the first time since May 31st, 1979, that a starting pitcher debuted against another starting pitcher with the same last name. Gotta go back to when Pat Underwood debuted against his brother Tom Underwood. Stone was facing the Phillies and Bryce Harper, who went three for three with a walk and a double. So he just needed a one game tune up and he was back to be in Bryce. You can be a supporter of Effectively Wild by going to Patreon.com slash Effectively Wild, where you can sign up and pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help us keep the podcast going. Help us stay mostly ad free and get yourself access to some perks. The following five listeners have already done so.

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You can also rate, review, and subscribe to Effectively Wild on iTunes and Spotify and other podcast platforms. You can follow Effectively Wild on Twitter at EWPod. You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at r slash Effectively Wild. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We will be back with one more episode before the end of the week. Talk to you then. We'll see you next time. Happy to have him back, though.

Obviously, Phillies fans are happy to have him back. And he is one of the leading main characters of the sport. So let me say that again. Cause I had a dog bark. He is one of the leading main characters. Oh, another dog bark. Grab kid.

We're almost at the end. We're almost done. Grab. Uh, uh, grab kid. Come here. All right.

Ruff ruff.