Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 201: Drafting Age-25-and-Under Starters/Still No No-Hitters

Episode Date: May 13, 2013

Ben and Sam draft starting pitchers age 25 and under, then discuss whether there’s any significance to the fact that we haven’t seen a no-hitter yet this season.

But now he's got a chance for something special. He's swung! Brzezinski has got to throw it down! It's a perfect day for Phillip Bumber! Good morning and welcome to episode 201 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Perspectives. I am Ben Lindberg, joined by Sam Miller and his crickets. How was your weekend? Um, it was okay. Yeah, that's about how mine was. What have you decided to talk about today? I want to talk about Perfect Games, I guess.

Okay. I guess mine is a little related then. I want to talk about 25 and under starters. Oh, why don't you go first? Okay. So this was just inspired by some of the almost perfect games that we have seen lately. We saw on Sunday Chris Sale pitched a one-hitter, and on Friday, we saw Shelby Miller do it, and then I think it was Wednesday, Matt Harvey did it. So I thought we could just play a game. These are my favorite and the listeners' least favorite.

You think so? I think so. Okay. They're my favorite though. And well, uh, I apologize to the listeners if, if that is true. Uh, but I sent Sam a list of 25 and under age 25 and under starters, uh, who have started all of their games this season and, and are qualified starters. Uh, so they would, they would be qualified for the ERA title if they were to continue pitching at the same rate all season. And I thought we could just kind of draft them. All right. Because, I don't know, it seems like there's been a few guys

who have cracked the top of this list this year. It's a very interesting, yeah, it's a great list. It is. Yeah, it's an interesting list. It is. Yeah, it's an interesting list. It's an interesting list. Yeah, it's a bunch of guys who would have been there before this season and some guys who have maybe elbowed their way to the top all of a sudden. So there's 14 names.

So what's, just out of curiosity, what's... There are 24 names. Oh, hang on. Message clipped. Yeah. Hang on a second. I don't know that the the bottom 10 will will be anyone that we talk about here but maybe oh geez this gets trickier i'm gonna have to talk

about alex and sinabi uh well we don't have to so there are 24 guys on the list we i mean we could just do a top 10 or something no no just go absolutely not No. No. Just go. Absolutely not. So I'm going to real quick, if I can, I want to copy this into somewhere where I can strike them as we go. Yes, that is wise. All right. So how are we going to decide? You and I should know each other for a long time. I would imagine that we'll be in touch, you know, certainly a few months from now.

And I would hope a few, maybe, I would hope at least six years we'll be in touch. Yes, I would hope so. So how do you want to choose, how do you want to decide who wins this? I guess, I don't know. Well. Should we just do a career warp from this point forward? Yeah. We're ignoring contract stuff. We're just doing best to best.

All right, so career warp from this point forward. And let's call it five years from today. Okay. Okay? And then again, ten years from today, if we still know each other. Yeah, some British documentarian will make a film series on this and chug in with us every seven years. Yeah. So what I didn't decide is who goes first.

It's your idea. You go first. Okay. All right. this is difficult i am going to take clayton kershaw number one overall yeah that that would have been my pick yeah as well uh this this is gonna uh this is my favorite thing is fun. I don't know that the listeners will enjoy if we do all 24 spots. No, we're doing all 24. There's no doubt about that. All right.

I'm going to take – I'll take – see, I really wish – Kershaw to me is such an obvious number one. And number two is tricky. So I'll take Steven Strasberg. Okay. I probably would have gone with Strasberg also. Okay. So I'm going to – all right. So I'm deleting Rose here in my spreadsheet.

So Kershaw, Strasburg off the board. I – man, this is tough. I guess I'm going to take Matt Moore. Oh, thank God. Yeah. He would have been my number four but I would rather have Madison Bumgarner okay so this isn't so the the first four guys that we have chosen are all people that we probably would have ranked the same way before this season I guess yeah I think

that's probably true okay uh well no I would have I mean well certainly I would have had Bumgarner ahead of Moore before the season okay I probably would have had Bumgarner ahead of Moore before the season. Okay. I probably would have had Bumgarner ahead of Moore now as well. I mean, I think I would, but to me, Moore closed that gap in the last half. You're not afraid of the Bumgarner we saw at the end of last season and the playoffs? No. Not particularly, no.

Okay. He's younger than Tony Singrani. That's my favorite. Yeah, Tony Singrani, he's not eligible. That's my favorite age factoid of the year. Okay. All right, so now we are getting into the territory where we might start considering some of the 2013 arrivals. start considering some of the 2013 arrivals uh i don't know if it's if it's recency bias or or reach or not i guess i'm you know no i'm gonna go with i'm gonna i'm gonna go with shelby miller

next see i i also would have gone with Shelby Miller. I thought you would take Harvey, though. I was very close to taking Harvey. So I'll take Harvey. Okay. Yeah, I was tempted to take Harvey, but I kind of, I don't know. I guess I just went with kind of the... There's no real difference between them in terms of what we know about them.

I just pretty, I enjoy watching Shelby Miller a little bit more. I don't quite fear that he's going to walk three batters in a row the way that I, I still kind of fear that about Harvey. Yeah, I guess, I guess I take Miller. I mean, Miller is a couple of years younger. I don't know how much that matters if we're just looking for five years in the future. But I guess just the fact that he was kind of a more highly touted prospect, I suppose. Not by a whole lot, but by some. I kind of got used to the idea of Shelby Miller as a future ace before I did Harvey.

And so I guess I'm going with the the longer prospect track record okay so those two guys are gone uh all right so the I guess the obvious next pick here would be Chris Sale uh no I'm gonna go with Latos. I also thought the obvious next pick was Chris Sale, and I also would have gone with Matt Latos. But I actually thought about talking about Chris Sale tonight, but I didn't have much to say about him. But at what point do we quit caring about what people worry about his arm. I feel like Francisco Rodriguez for nine years was on the cusp of breaking down, and he never really did.

He just basically got a little old and broke down like everybody breaks down. But he just pitched right through it. And sale, I don't know. I would feel a bit cautious about taking sale because I have this voice in my head that people smart have been putting in there. But I don't know. What's the indication that these people know what they're talking about? He's not simply awesome. If we were somehow drafting what had happened over the last 15 or 16 months he'd be like number two or three right yeah definitely on this list after kershaw probably yeah maybe after strasburg but yeah

maybe not um maybe not well i i don't know rodriguez was a reliever and uh i guess i would be less worried about chris sale if he were still a reliever and had the delivery that he has. I don't know. With him, it's both what smart people who know things say about Sale, and it's also just kind of my gut, I guess, and I hate giving that any credence, but just kind of watching him is, I mean, it's fun and wonderful and also scary. Well, I'm going to gamble. I'm going to actually pass on sale, and I'm going to take Jose Fernandez instead with my pick. Okay. All right.

So now I have a difficult decision. I guess, see, I mean, I feel like the five-year thing almost changes things a little bit. If we were doing full career, that might change the answer. We could do full career. Maybe we should do full career. Sure, we'll do full career. I probably wouldn't have changed anything I've done so far. We could do full career.

You'll have to know that we're we're actually not going to remember to do this in 20 21 years we might have a listener who reminds us we might but we'll definitely remember to do it in one year yes so really you're only going to get credit for that right it's kind of realistically you're going to get credit for that it's kind of like if you're in a if you're in a keeper league how confident are you that the league will exist in a few years? Exactly. All right. I guess I will take the talent and go with Sale next.

Okay. And I will go with Mike Miner because I just trust the Braves. Yeah. I might have taken Minor next okay I guess my next guy I'm torn between two guys I guess I guess I'll take Trevor Cahill

yeah okay and I'll take Jared Parker okay and then I'll take Jared Parker. Okay. And then I will take... I guess I'll take Alex Cobb. Interesting. Do you have the reach?

Yeah, well, I do. But whatever. What do I know? I'll take... Goodness gracious. At this point, I now don't... whatever, what do I know? I'll take... Goodness gracious, at this point I'm just worried I'm going to do something. You know, I've always had this theory that you can't tell who's good at Jeopardy or who's bad at Jeopardy

based on the final score because depending on how you do with the buzzer, you might be the smartest guy out there but not win, and you might be the dumbest guy out there, but you might answer four questions and get three of them right but the the way that you really know a person is terrible at jeopardy is how wrong their wrong answers are like if they if if they guess martin luther king and the answer is like stockholm syndrome uh then you know that they're an idiot like they just don't have any fundamental

comprehension and so i'm worried now that i'm going to do some pick that's just so laughable. Yes, because there are a few guys on this list I couldn't exactly write a book about. So I'm right now going with extremely – I'm aiming for cautious. But I'm actually going to – I don't know if this is cautious or not, but I'll take Chris Tillman. Yeah. But I'm actually going to – I don't know if this is cautious or not, but I'll take Chris Tillman. Okay. All right. I guess I will take – I guess I'll take Pat Corbin.

Okay. It's fine. It's a fine pick. I have a lingering distrust of him that I should get over. I'll take Ulysse Chassin. Okay. I'm glad you took him because I wasn't sure where to take him. Man, it's getting difficult now.

I guess I will take Mike Leak. You know, RJ asked me the other day what I thought the odds were that Mike Leak would be in a starting rotation in six years, I think. And that's not all that easy to answer I think I guessed like 1 in 5 or something like that, 1 in 6 and then that immediately struck me as way too low yeah I feel like I don't know I feel like he could just kind of

hang on as a back of the rotation guy for quite a while and if he does then probably he will be more successful than most of the people remaining on this list. But yeah, I don't know. I guess I'll take him just because he's been kind of consistent. Not really consistently that great, but yeah.

All right, I'll take AJ Griffin. Okay, probably would have been my next guy too. Griffin. Okay. Probably would have been my next guy too. Hmm. I don't really want any of these other guys. I guess I kind of. Hmm.

This is a good podcast right here. I guess, I mean, I'm not at all confident in the pick, but I guess I'll take Jose Quintana. That's what I would have definitely taken. All right. And I'll take Zach McAllister. Okay. I was remembering your article that you wrote about him

and all his unearned runs last year. Yeah, he's been better. Okay. All right. I guess I will go with... Willie Peralta. Ah! That's your next guy?

Yeah, I don't know. It seems like the clearest... all i mean the last four guys none of them are great bets to be uh well three three four including i mean they're all going to be gone pretty soon right so i'll take uh vance swirly okay um and I will take Jeff Locke. And I'll take Alex Navia. All right. All right. So somebody write those down.

Did you keep track or were you just deleting? I was just deleting. Well, I kept track by recording it and then publishing it on a public. So hopefully someone else will do the work and keep track of how much every guy was worth and then report back to us. And remind us in one year to talk about this. Yeah, free podcast. That's the least you guys could do. All right. So last year there were 65, I believe, no-hitters, or 66 maybe. There were a lot of no-hitters last year,

and there were a lot of perfect games, and this year there haven't been any of either. Unless I've forgotten any? I haven't forgotten any, right? No. All right, so I think there were six no-hitters and three perfect games last year. And so I just figure it's just about time for some columnist to write a story about how there have been no no-hitters in three perfect games last year. And so I just figure it's just about time for some columnist to write a story about how there have been no-hitters

and to somehow tie that into performance enhancing drugs. I don't know how they'll do it, but somehow it will be about steroids. And I just wanted to, because I just wrote a big piece in the offseason about why perfect games are more common now. I feel a little bit defensive of them. I just wanted to point out that actually what we've seen has been perfectly in line with the perfect game boom, the perfect game era, however you want to say it. You named three pitchers who just had near perfect games. John Lester also had a one hitter with no walks. And so that's four,

four, I guess you would call those four near perfect games. Uh, 27 outs, one base runner. Uh, none of them will go down in history because none of them were no hitters. However,

uh, four, one base runner games or less is actually staggeringly high for a week. It's staggeringly high. It's actually higher than average for a year. It's how many there were from 1975 to 1979. It's basically been about two of those per year throughout history. And so we've seen four in a week. And I mean, everything is continues to be in place for perfect games. You watch all four of those starts and there was no particular reason that any of those pitchers

couldn't have thrown a perfect game on that day. I didn't see Wainwright's. I left Wainwright's start yesterday and I think he had like a one walk no hits through seven or something like that. I didn't see how close he came. It was a two hitter, right? I think.

Was it? I think so. So yeah i i don't have any great point about it but basically strikeouts remain high uh the um every basically every pitcher who's in the major leagues right now just about can is capable of striking out 10 hitters. And if you can strike out 10 hitters in a game, your chances of throwing a perfect game or a no-hitter go way, way up. For the story I wrote, Dan Simborski ran the numbers, and every strikeout per nine that you add to a pitcher's rates increases his likelihood of throwing a perfect game every time he goes out there by 37 and um so everybody i mean basically the league average starter now strikes out seven plus per nine and um there's going to be a lot of guy i mean you know just about everybody just about

every time out there uh has the stuff to do it in a way that wasn't really true in the past and um so i just wanted to point that out and i also slightly off topic but uh because that was the point of the reason that i wrote about this in the off season philip umber was designated for assignment by the astros this makes me very sad because i like philip umber a lot as a you know good man kind of a guy and i'll root for him to get another chance somewhere and I hope he does something with it. I wanted to note though that I saw for instance Keith Law mentioned this and it's always been the story about Phillip Humber as well as his Rice teammates. The idea of the narrative is that he was overworked at Rice that when he and Neiman and Wade Townsend were teammates, that

they really rode all three of those guys, had them throw huge pitch counts, and basically broke all three of them. They were all top 10 picks, I think, in the same year. And I remember, actually, at the time, I remember that being the story about that club. And so it's not like this is all second-guessing. This has been uh something that that people who care about pitcher abuse have been paying attention to this trio for almost a decade and you know there's there's you might look at the results and say well it's pretty good evidence that

that that was true uh and i just wanted to note that umber disputes that for himself personally and says that um the idea is that he was overworked, that that's what led to his Tommy John in, I think, his second year of pro ball, and that he never came back from Tommy John. Basically, he was an elite prospect until Tommy John. He was not an elite prospect after. And so that makes sense. You trace it to Rice.

But he says that actually he came back strong from his Tommy John, that he was throwing very hard, that he was still very effective, that he was still a good prospect. His downfall came after that. You can't say Tommy John and I never came back because I did come back. His problems were of a different nature. I would guess that he would say that his problems were basically mechanical and mental and maybe, I don't know if he would say this, but maybe some bad coaching in there. That might be going too far.

And that that's what kind of cost him his high prospect status and that the issues he has now are not really tied to that that was seven years ago now he's a different pitcher and he's having problems like lots of people have problems when they're 30 years old and losing velocity and struggling to find a new way to make it work so uh i'm not saying that the rice theory is wrong uh it could very easily be right there's a lot of evidence There's a lot of cause and effect that seems to be in play. But from a guy who has some insight into it, he thinks that it's a bad explanation. All right. I will keep an eye out for that first article about how no one is throwing no-hitters anymore. Yeah. Somebody, if you see it, send it in. All right. We're done. Send us emails for Email Wednesday at podcast at baseballperspectives.com,

and we will be back tomorrow.