Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2017: The 26-Under-25 Draft

Episode Date: June 10, 2023

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Mets, the Padres, and the AL Central, Jacob deGrom’s UCL, Mike Trout’s slow (by his standards) start, and a Phillies pitch-clock controversy, then (23:32), in honor of Elly De La Cruz, draft the 26 best MLB players under 25 years old (see link below to vote!), followed […]

Autorni, le stat-blast, les beef-boys sont chouettes Les avis pétantes, et super, une fête Je pense que c'est effectivement cool Je pense que c'est effectivement wild Effectivement sauvage Effectivemental Sauvage. Effective Moral Sauvage. Hello and welcome to episode 2017 of Effectively Wild, a Fangraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters.

I'm Meg Raleigh of Fangraphs and I am joined by a still beleaguered but present Ben Lindberg of The Ringer. Ben, how are you? I am somewhere between the Mets and the AL Central. I guess that's about as good as I am right now. So you're dying? I mean, I guess we all are, aren't we? I'm in better shape than Jacob deGrum's UCL, but I am, yeah, roughly AL Central level as we speak on Friday. Every AL Central team is currently below 500. Yeah, it seems bad. So I'm either that or the Mets reeling after losing a bunch of games to the Braves and some other teams too.

I will admit that I didn't get to watch a lot of baseball yesterday because I was busy working, working, working, you know, and also yelling at the Blue Jays on Twitter. And so I didn't like I didn't get to watch the Mets collapse. But the way that people who did watch the Mets collapse, who prefer the Mets to win versus lose, were talking about the Mets collapse in their game against Atlanta. It took me back, Ben. I felt like I was in an earlier time. I won't say a simpler time, but a Wilpon-y time.

That's how it felt. Felt like we were doing an oldie but a not goodie, at least from the Mets' perspective. The Braves fans I follow were thrilled. They were having a great time. Yeah. A lot of what will Cohen do columns out there. Will heads roll? Will there be big changes?

It is extraordinary that it is June 9th and the Mets are 30-33 and the Padres are 29-33. Yeah. Two teams that were much talked about over the winter, spent a ton that were angering other owners who didn trying and really going for it and not being rewarded with wins. I guess you could put the Rangers in the category of they went for it and they spent a lot and they are. It is paying off for them. Big time dividends for the Texas Rangers, even with Jacob deGrom now going under the knife and being done for the year and potentially next year too. But yeah, the Padres in particular, just because as we've discussed that there was so much consternation about what

will happen to the Padres long-term and it all presupposed that the Padres in the short-term would be quite competitive and that it would all be worth it in the long run, whatever happened. would be quite competitive and that would all be worth it in the long run, whatever happened. I think that there's a good conversation to have about, you know, if we're identifying different buckets of foibles, consternation, plagues, curses, problems befalling all of these teams, there is a good roster construction conversation to have. And, you know, how do you balance being aggressive in the short term sometimes to the detriment of your farm system with long-term goals and i think all of that is good for us to to think about to your point like the rangers were aggressive and they

went for it they went for it last off season i'm doing a little like skipping a jump you know to the offseason that preceded this past offseason and and were aggressive beyond de grom right like that was obviously the biggest dollar contracted that they signed this offseason but hardly the only one and like look at these rangers and then you have the you know we never not we never we talk about it all the time that i'm sure our listeners do amongst themselves. But the flip side of that coin is like, you know, I have seen some tweets, Ben, and I regret it. I always forget seeing the tweets. I almost am never like, I'm happy I saw that tweet.

But like, you know, there have been some tweets about like, these two teams are X amount over the luxury tax. When you combine all of their penalties are spending this much to lose. And it's like, well, I guess, you know, the A's are only spending like $80 million, but they've only won 14 games,

you know, and which of these experiences is more enjoyable. You probably still would rather your team have tried, even if it's not succeeding right now, um, than do what Oakland is doing. I don't, are they going to have a place to play next year, Pat? Who can say?

Maybe we'll know by the time we record next week. It seems like there's a... Every day it's like, okay, today we will know for sure. And then there's another special session of the Nevada legislature and I just read comments by the legislators about why I should pay for this?

And then there's another special session after that. Just keep having special sessions until somehow we slip this thing through. Very often when you watch committee testimony of state legislators, you can want to pull your hair out and you're like, oh, no, things are going very badly at all levels of government. But sometimes you get like a really good sassy session and you're like, this is satisfying. I feel I'm not even a resident of the state of Nevada,

let alone Las Vegas. And I'm like, I feel well represented by these people. Yeah. These are our people. Yeah. The longer it goes on, the more I expect that the A's will somehow get their way or mostly just because teams tend to often.

And it seems like they'll just ram this thing through whatever it takes, but they can't have anticipated this much resistance, it doesn't seem like. They seem to have bungled this, and I don't know whether they will get it across the finish line or have to just go back to Oakland, licking their wounds and come crawling back or how this will end. That would be maybe the most amusing end to all of this. And I guess something approaching a happy ending for A's fans if they're not just entirely tired of this team at this point. But yeah, until it's dead, totally dead, I'm going to assume that somehow it gets done because it seemed like it was dead several times and then somehow it has a heartbeat again. I feel like one should always take the approach to stadium funding exercises that you take to villains in horror movies.

Yeah, exactly. The A's are Freddy Krueger. Sorry. Or like, which one is, I get the slasher villains mixed up sometimes because, man, they're kind of gross, those movies, you know? Oh, yeah. I don't always, I don't always want to rewatch, you know? I'm not always like, oh, yeah, let me watch this nubile teen get slashed again. I'm not into it. It's not my, it's not my preferred genre, but.

No. You've got your Michael Myers in Halloween. You've got your Jason in Friday the 13thlloween you've got your jason with james friday the 13th lee curtis no that's the one with jamie lee curtis anyway i know jamie lee curtis is involved in like a really profound way and you've got your freddie krueger in an elm street oh okay that's the one with jamie lee curtis no no that is that is is Halloween. Who's the one who in the Friday is... Who's the one where they go to summer camp? That's...

Wait, no, that's Friday the 13th. That's Friday the 13th. And in the first movie, it's his mom. That's the... Oh, spoiler alert. It's the mom, right? And you understand why she was upset. And then it turns out her kid wasn't dead. She could still be upset. She was justified, although those weren't the teens that killed her son. Anyway. We'll have to do a Patreon pod where we each watch a horror movie and report back.

Oh, yeah. Although, you know, I know that there is a certain contingent of our listenership who sometimes is displeased when my voice gets into a squeaky range that only dogs can hear. So maybe they'll want to sit that one out, although they're probably not Patreon supporters anyway, so who could say? sad about teams that were supposed to be good that are currently playing, you know, less good baseball and somehow ended up making about the Oakland A's. So we're just being ourselves. It's not a large leap from the Oakland A's to horror stories, really. But I mean, there was certainly a segue there available to us. Anyway, we've talked about those teams a lot. I'm sure we'll talk about them more, especially if they don't turn things around. So I was wondering whether we need to officially formally retire the – maybe it was an unofficial Effectively Wild podcast rule that stats don't count until Mike Trout is at the top of the war leaderboard. Is it time for us?

Because he's a mere 31st on the war leaderboard at this point. And there have been some articles written. Jay Jaffe wrote about this for Fangraphs and Sam Blum wrote about it for The Athletic. And it's sort of a what's wrong with Mike Trout? Are we going to see the old Mike Trout? And by that, I mean the young Mike Trout. Is he going to be back or is this the new normal for Mike Trout? First of all, it's amusing. I think that there is any, I won't call it panic, but consternation about how Mike Trout is playing because again, he's played very well. He's on pace for like a five and a half win season, you know, like, which is clearly an all-star caliber, better than all-star caliber

kind of season. He is, again, 34th in the majors in war. He has a 136 WRC plus. He's been a very valuable player, but he has not been as good as we're accustomed to Mike Trout being. And Jay ran through this in his piece, right? And there have been occasional stretches of this length in prior seasons when Mike Trout has not played well, has played similarly, again, by his standards below what we would think. But it is one of the worst stretches of his career of this length. And given that he is almost 32 years old, that he's had the back ailments, et cetera, you wonder whether they might finally be taking their toll. He's swinging and missing a lot more than he used to. And he's had great seasons or great stretches where he struck out a lot too. But it's just, it's a little bit different, right? And you wonder, like, are we finally seeing aging take place here? Like, is he declining as a player the day that we've dreaded and awaited? Is it here?

I would submit the following. I think that we are witnessing him officially entering his decline phase. I think that he will likely have a relatively smooth decline barring further and worse injury setbacks, which unfortunately I think we have to entertain that as a possibility with Trout now, right? We have many seasons now. We're like, we're here, you know, this is the guy. But I think it's going to be like, it's going to be a gradual thing. And he is a player who has demonstrated over the course of his career and almost like preternatural ability to identify a weakness and then course correct on that weakness. Now, I imagine that for every player, even generational talents like Trout, future Hall of Famers, et cetera, that your capacity for that course correction probably is blunted over time just because your body declines, you know, you lose some bad speed, you know, your back is barking at you. And so I don't imagine that the course corrections will be as dramatic as they have been at other points in his career, but I imagine he probably has a couple left in him and

that all of that taken together will result in like the kind of smooth, graceful age that, like, we want for these guys, right? So, I think that. I also think, and I don't want to telegraph the point of our podcast today, the exercise we're about to engage in. I am not yet ready, Ben, I don't think, to crown the new, you know, war isn't real until guy. I don't, I think that is an unsettled question i think there are some really strong candidates and there are some delightful young players who are going to kind of claim the mantle as the the best guy and they they're gonna just delight us as they

duke it out to become the new best guy but i I don't know that there's like an obvious, like even Otani. I don't know. I don't know. Yeah. There doesn't necessarily have to be a successor to that crown. It just feels, it feels bad to take off the crown and hand it to someone else. Although, you know, like I'm kind of opposed to monarchy. So maybe I'm getting exactly what I want.

Really? You know, maybe this is actually my ideal scenario where it's just like, it is amongst a group of very talented people and there need not be the guy. There are a lot of guys, you know? Maybe this is the best. That was what set Trout apart

is that he was there year after year after year, either at the very top or adjacent to it, right? And so there would be years when Trout was not the war leader or someone else would displace him or come very close to him. So, you know, there was like a Josh Donaldson year and then there might be a Mookie Betts year and then there might be a Marcus Semyon year. There were years where Bryce Harper, right? I mean, but the thing was, Trout was right there every year, and typically he ended up at the top. So no other player really did that with his kind of consistency, and maybe no player will now. There will just be

a short list of the best players in baseball. There just won't be an inarguable number one year after year after year the way that Trout has just had that locked down for the past decade plus. And I wouldn't be shocked if this is a slump and for the rest of this season, he's the old Trout again. Because I think aging for players, it's not like they completely plummet off a cliff, at least in most cases, or it's not like they can't ever do the things they used to do. It's just that the slumps last a little longer, and maybe they're a little more extreme, and the hot streaks last a little less long, and maybe they're a little less hot, and eventually the slumps get longer and the streaks get less long, and you end up with a

player who's declining. But it's not necessarily always super sudden or dramatic. So I think the difference is if he keeps playing at this level up until this season, I would have said, even though there were players who projected in the past year or two to be more valuable than Mike Trout, that was because of durability. And when he had been on the field, he was really as good as ever. Like even last year, you know, he ended up with a 176 WRC+. He was worth six plus more in 119 games. He was playing at an eight plus win level over a full season. Like, you know, it was a little different, but he was more or less as good as ever.

He had a little bit of a slump before he went on the IL and dealt with the back thing, but then he came back and he was his usual self. So there were concerns about how many games will he play, but not really have we seen him play for a protracted period and actually be healthy and suiting up and just not being like the best player in baseball while he's out there. So if this continues, this would be a first, I guess, if we had a full season of fairly healthy and durable Trout thus far, who's just a star but not a super-duper star. So that would mark an inflection point, I think, in his career if it continues. A super-duper star.

A super- duper star. A super duper star. I'm not entirely giving up on peak Trout being over yet. It will take more than that. And he seems to think that it's correctable. You know, he's talking about how he's in the cage and he's taking extra swings and he thinks that it's just one tweak and there's mechanical flaws he's identified.

And when he's doing the right thing in the box, then he's the old Mike is how he described it. So can he be the old Mike more consistently? Probably. It comes down to consistency when you're that good. Can you be at that level all the time or most of the time or some of the time? So I would not be surprised if he's at that level more of the time for the rest of the season than he has been thus far. But can we stop saying that stats aren't real until Mike Trout's at the top of the world leaderboard?

It's probably time to say that or else we might have to write off the entire season as not real, which doesn't seem like it would be fair to all the other players out there. Or to Mike Trout, for that matter. Why burden him with the angst of his fellows, you know? It's like, he doesn't have to carry that load. We don't have to place that upon him. Yeah, I think that we're there. It has to be so odd.

Like, we will... I mean, you less, probably, because you just consume so much pop culture. But it's like, I think we all feel a sense of, as we age, like a remove from familiar settings that we're not like actively pursuing, right? Where it's like you read the, like, Ben, I don't know about BB Gronk. I can't be brought to be burdened by that, you know? Yeah. Yeah. You know the saying about how everything I've learned about this has been against my will?

Yeah. I finally figured out what it was referring to after days of seeing it and going, you know what? No, I'm not even going to. No, I don't need to know about that. It wasn't worth it, though. I am shocked. I don't know what it is. I know that it is not just Rob Gronkowski and his girlfriend having a baby, which seems, you know, and if people had been like, I bet that's a really big baby and were worried about how big that baby might be.

I would have been like, yeah, that seems like a reasonable concern because have you seen Rob Gronkowski? I bet that that's going to that would be a really big baby. And, you know, ouch. That's not what it is. and you know ouch um that's not what it is it's some other as i said unaffiliated baby some unrelated baby who also doesn't appear to actually be a baby and i'm like i cannot i can't i cannot read even one i know there are explainers i can't i can't do it and so you you know this is an unimportant example arguably um but it's like you know you know, I don't know who all the celebrities and commercials are anymore. And I'm in my mid-30s.

You know, it's not like I'm so far removed from a time when people will unambiguously invoke the word young and feel comfortable with it, right? So, like, I don't know. I don't know who that gal in the Coca-Cola commercial is. You know, I think she's a model. But I don't know. She likes to eat pasta with her friends. I'm happy for her, but I don't know who she is. And like, and that's fine because it's unimportant that I know that. But we all like have these moments where we're like, okay, the culture is moving away from us a little bit. Other people's interests and aesthetics are becoming central. And like, that's fine. Like that's how it's supposed to go. Like we can't

hold onto this stuff forever. That's not, that seems unfair. So, you know, as we engage in our careers where we have to like think things and say things and write things and like have a perspective that people listen to, I worry about that a little bit. Like not in a keep me up at night kind of way, but just in an acknowledgement that like at some point I might be at a step through no active choice. It's not like I'm rejecting things. I just am not engaged with them. It has to be so weird for the thing you're, you know, out of remove from to be your own self from like three years ago. It just has to be a profoundly strange job. You know, you've, you're arguably, you can make a good argument best to ever do it, right? Like the best to ever do it. And that was

like a couple of years ago. I don't know. It would be very disorienting. I think I'm spending most of this season just feeling really worried for guys. Like I read these quotes and I'm just like, are you, are you okay? Like, are you okay? And I'm sure they are because, or they're, they're not, but they're like, you know, equipped with the resources to try to find their way to feeling, you know, at peace with it. Right. But I do worry, I worry about, I worry about all of them. I worry about the trouts and the cinder guards, like all up and down the spectrum of like, still a viable, still a good, still a star, but not a super duper star. All of those guys. I'm guys. Because what I really needed was greater capacity for anxiety. I already have.

Anyway, that was a more directly related to baseball tangent than me not knowing who super horror movie villains are. It was closer, at least. I managed to tie Baby Croc to Mike Trout somehow and I understood the connection.

Do you remember, Ben? Sorry. We're going to stick on this for one second and then we will do our purpose for convening today. But do you remember the really big baby? I think the early days of the pandemic, there was like a really big baby. And look, I am not a mother and I don't want to criticize people. I don't know about this baby, but people were like it's a really big baby and then I was like, how old is the baby? And they were like, oh, he's four. And I was like, so he's not a baby.

He's objectively in a different phase of life than being a baby. He's not in his prime like we are. But he's not a baby anymore. He's like a toddler and he will soon be just a whole ass kid. He's not a big baby. He's like a toddler, and he will soon be just a whole-ass kid. He's not a big baby.

He's just like a maybe kind of large toddler anyway. Yeah, he had baby-like features. Yeah, he did have a very baby face. Baby-like attire in that picture, at least. Yes. Right. But there was a strange discordance between some aspects. But he was like four. So it's like, yeah, maybe he's tall for being four.

And maybe he does have a very youthful face for a four-year-old. But he's still like objectively not a baby anymore, right? I don't remember if he was exactly four. Don't send us emails. Like he was safely out of the baby range. Yeah, I think he was three, but still not a baby. Not a baby. No. Yeah, okay. Anyway, so speaking of the baby range. Yeah, I think he was three, but still not a baby. Not a baby! No.

Yeah, okay. Anyway, so speaking of babies, though, there are so many good young players. We've got a draft to do here. We do. Hey, one thing. Did you see this? Is the Phillies pitch clock too fast? Controversy.

Yeah. Which is amusing. too fast controversy, which is amusing. I think I enjoyed reading Matt Gelb's piece for The Athletic about investigating whether the pitch clock in Philly is too fast, is faster than the other pitch clocks. And this is something that, hey, the Phillies, by the way, now have a better record than the Mets and the Padres, just barely. They haven't been off to the greatest start either. Not that people expected quite as much of them, but they've been playing a bit better of late. And they've had an odd season where you kind of worried about their depth

coming into the year and the depth has been okay, but the stars have actually underperformed to some extent, whether it's Trey Turner or Nola or Real Muto, you know, and some of those guys have been a bit better of late and the team has been a bit better of late. So the fact that they've gotten this far without getting what they expected from some of their stars, so Schwarber, too, you could throw him in there. That's actually kind of encouraging.

Well, yeah, he's waiting for June, though. You know, that's what he does. Yes, that's the magic month. But they've also purportedly been dealing with a sped-up pitch clock, which is not actually a disadvantage, arguably, for them. You could argue that, if anything, it's an advantage because they have maybe been messed up by it less than the visiting teams at Citizens Bank Park. So basically, Matt ran through the numbers and found that there have been more violations

in games in Philly by a fair amount, by a somewhat suspicious amount. And also both Phillies and visiting players have observed that it seems like the pitch clock goes extra speedy in Philly. And most of the violations have actually been visiting players, which is why I'm saying, if anything, this might be helping the Phillies because it could be, in theory, kind of a home field advantage. Like if in your park the clock is sped up, that might mess you up, but it'll probably mess up the visiting players even more because they'll be even less used to it. And they'll be able to adjust to it even less than you are. But everyone has their internal pitch clock timer and they've been looking, and they've been surprised by how fast it's gone. And there is kind of a human element to the pitch clock, especially on some calls, right?

So just quoting from Matt here, the timer starts when the pitcher catches the ball from the catcher, no matter where the pitcher is standing. But players have noticed that is loosely interpreted. standing, but players have noticed that is loosely interpreted. The Phillies think the biggest discrepancies in the Citizens Bank park clock have come after foul balls or other events that stopped play. The league's rules state that after a dead ball, the timer is to begin only when the pitcher is in possession of the ball on the dirt of the pitcher's mound. Clock operators in some ballparks wait until the pitcher is near or on the rubber, which makes it sound like maybe

the operators in Philly are actually following the letter of the law here and others aren't, but it's been different. Anyway, it sounds like MLB was aware of this, was informed of this, is grading the timers and the umpires on this, and maybe has intervened already. It's not clear whether this has changed, but this is sort of an amusing controversy, but it does matter. You want it to be consistent across all the parks, of course. You do. I don't want to impugn Matt's work here. I do suspect that this stuff will end up coming out in the wash

when the season is done. And it's frustrating because we don't have... This is the kind of will end up coming out in the wash when the season is done. And it's frustrating because we don't have, you know, this is the kind of thing where, okay, you have the raw violations data and you have the anecdotal experience of players, which I don't mean to discount, but it's like we, I wish that we had, this is where I wish that we had a lot more camera angles because the way to sort this out and verify the sense that the players have is to go watch all the violations and be like, eh, yeah. You know, in that instance, this and that. But we don't have that sustained center field angle all the time. We sometimes get it when like a guy is warming up or you get the cut back to the mound and the umpire delivering a new ball like when a foul ball is hit, but we don't have it consistently. So, it's like, I want the Zapruder film version

of this. And, you know, it is something like, Matt, if you're ever bored at the ballpark, sounds like you should sit there and like get your stopwatch out, you know? Yeah, it doesn't sound like it's a calibration, like the clock is, you know, the duration of a second is shorter in Philly than somewhere else. It sounds like it's more about when it's actually starting the countdown. But yeah, you'd have to be in the park and observing that closely in order to actually compare. Yeah. So it doesn't strike me as impossible because you're right. There is an element of potential human error, even in something as precise as time, which, wow, we've done it. But I do wish that we had the means to like do that video analysis at home

because of course now everyone's going to be like, I don't know about controversy. And it's like, this isn't – it already broke contained to John Boyce. So, like, unless there were some way to automate that or tie it to some event happening. But there's umpire discretion involved in these things. So I don't know that there's a perfect way around it. Again, I don't think it's so different that it's extremely disruptive or that anyone's at a massive disadvantage here. But if anyone is being helped by this, it's probably the Phillies, I would think. Just a little bit of a fast finger on the clock. But I'm sure if that actually has been the case, it'll probably be addressed.

Yeah, I think that the incentives on the league's part are very strong to have things be as even as possible amongst the different parks so that no club either has the perception that they're being put at a disadvantage relative to other teams or is able to actually demonstrate that that is true you want to mitigate both the actual the actual issue but the making sure that the perception of the clock as fair, I think, is probably almost as important because, you know, this stuff, as we saw in the minors, like the way that this all hangs together over the course of a long season is if everyone is very bought in all the time. So, yeah. All right.

Let's do a draft. We're doing a draft. We've been excited about the arrival of Elie de la Cruz. We've talked about that on recent episodes, and I'm no less excited having gotten to see him for a few games now. He has totally lived up to the hype very quickly. Some guys come up and they might scuffle for a few games, and it's like, all right, we know it's in there somewhere, but we're just not seeing it immediately.

He wasted no time in just showing everyone. I love when the rookie comes up and immediately runs harder or throws harder or hits harder than anyone on the team has the entire season to date, which was the case. He hit a ball in his first game that was harder than any ball that anyone else on the Reds had hit this season. And then he had the fastest, what was it, home to third time or something? Home to third time. Not just for the Reds, in the majors. No, in the majors this year. Right, yeah.

He bested Corbin Carroll, yeah. Yeah, so he's just done all sorts of elite stat cast superstar stuff. He hit just an absolute bomb that like almost left the stadium. It almost left the ballpark, Ben. Yeah, it's just so much fun. And immediately just looked and acted like he belonged because in his very first game, he predicted the outcome. Just like a seasoned big leaguer claimed after the fact that he had predicted something.

So supposedly he predicted Matt McClain's walk-off single when the Reds came back to beat the Dodgers. And Ellie said, I told him, I told you, I told him before he hit the walk-off, I said, hey, you're going to hit a walk-off. I said, I told you, man. So no hamburger phone in effect in Cincinnati. So I guess we don't have receipts. But I mean, what's more big league than that? Your first game. No hamburger phone. But really, I mean, what could be more big league than you get there and immediately you're already predicting stuff. So, and taking credit for it after the fact, I'm sure he actually did. Anyway, he's been fantastic. And I think he

will probably be the last prospect of that caliber to come up this season. I mean, there aren't many prospects of that caliber, so that would be a very short list. But to make his major league debut, there are definitely some prospects who could still appear at some point this season. But when it comes to really, really elite guys, I think probably they have debuted already at this point. And so in honor of that,

we thought we would do a draft of under 25 players. Yeah. By that, I mean players who are younger than 25, not fewer than 25 players. And a point of clarification related to the age that, you know, maybe someone had to ask like 20 minutes before the draft started. Yes. So not 25 and under, but under 25. You have to be younger than 25 as of today when we are drafting. So we are ruling out excluding seasoned, wizened veterans, old men like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Jordan Alvarez and Beau Bichette.

These guys, they're all 25 years old. They have passed the threshold. George Kirby, Luis Robert, right? None of them qualifies for this draft. You have to be under 25, younger than 25. Yeah. And we've done in the past, Sam and I did many years ago, under 25 starting pitcher drafts. This is everyone open to all players.

And we have done similar things. We did similar things at the ringer a couple of times, although we didn't do drafts. We did collective rankings of our MLB staff. And we argued with each other over that, but ultimately just produced one list and we're just going to draft. And as we've done with previous under-25 players' drafts, I think we'll just say war accrued over the next 10 years. I guess we can go with Fangraphs War. And maybe – Thanks, Ben. Yeah, well, back when we did this in the past, we were still at Baseball Prospectus. We did Baseball Prospectus War drafts.

Fair enough. But we're company people. So we'll do Fang graphs war this time. And yeah, I guess we'll go 10 years maybe, or we could do increments of five, let's say 10 officially. And then maybe if it's very close at the end of 10 years, if we could just extend it to like entire careers, the rest of careers. But well, let's say 10 years and then, I don't know,

we can trigger an extension if it's within like five war or something. If it's too close to call, then we'll extend it to end of careers. But that's the draft and we will see who the best players are, the ones we believe in most. I guess this could be in honor

of Ellie De La Cruz or it could be in honor of Joe Adele, who's back in the big leagues and is still 24 years old. He's eligible, so we'll see if anyone drafts Joe Adele. He's going to be my first pick. Yeah, I probably won't draft Joe Adele.

How many are we doing? I think generally these things are like 25 under 25, so we'll just reel off 25. We're doing 25, Ben? Yeah. Yeah. Well, I guess we got to do. You did not tell me it was going to be.

I totally told you that. You didn't tell me it was going to be that many? Oh, no. Scroll up in your G chats. That's so many guys. But there are so many. There's so many good players. I know, but like that's like, we're going to be here forever.

I got to get my hair cut in an hour. We'll just list them off. We're not going to overthink this. We're not? Okay. Yeah. And I guess we should go 26 because it has to be an even number so that either of us is. Oh, my God.

That extra one. That's going to take so much longer. No, it's okay. We're just going to name names. Can I go first? Sure. Please. I'm taking Wander Franco.

Okay. I would have taken Wander Franco too. And I'm not even telling you why. I'm just saying names. I mean, you can say something about it. Can I say something about my first overall pick because I actually have like a quote prepared. Oh, yeah. I have a quote from a piece, you know, becauseanco he's you know he wander franco is like the prince who was promised he is still the only prospect in fan graphs like the current era of fan graphs prospect ranking to be an 80 future value prospect the only one right and he had

you know that scintillating debut and then last year he was still good but he was hurt he didn't play a whole season we're like like, who is going to beat? What is Wander Franco? Like, who is he? And then, you know, he was like, I'm really good at baseball. And he currently is sitting 303, 366, 487. He has a 142 WRC plus. Ben Clemens, no less a luminary, looked at, like, the first part of the season.

And a lot of this stuff has stuck. And I just think this is a nice little recap. So Ben says these changes are worth recapping. He's looking for pitches to drive before he reaches two strikes and driving them when he gets them. When he does get to two strikes, he's phenomenally aggressive in the strike zone and makes contact and an elite clip.

If you leave the zone, he chases far less frequently than average. This is what a superstar hitter looks like. He might not be, might not have top tier power, but he makes up for it by never giving away at-bats and tapping into everything he has frequently. So, Juan DeFranco. Wow, 25. Maybe you did say, I don't know. I spent part of yesterday reminding you that when you are sick,

we do not have to record. We can record a different day. People will understand. We're going to go fast. It's all right. Sorry. You didn't even have to justify it. I know, but it was the first overall pick, and I was prepped, you know? And so I wanted to— He's currently leading the majors in war, and he is 22 years old.

So I think he is the clear number one pick here. Yeah. All right. Well, since you stole Wander Franco for me, I guess I will take Juan Soto, who is still eligible for this draft after all these many years.

He's old for this draft right now. He's 24. So I guess you could say 10 years by the end of that time he could be showing some age-related decline. But who knows?

I guess the only reason to take someone else over Juan Soto is that he's not going to give you that all-around war value, right? You're not going to get a lot of base running or defensive value, typically. I mean, his defensive metrics fluctuate wildly, but generally he's there for his bat. But his bat is great. It's one of the greats, and he has improved his offense after a slow start. So I still believe that he will age very well as a hitter. And I wouldn't really select anyone other than Juan Soto to be a better hitter over the next decades, probably, who is eligible for this draft, at least certainly. So, yeah, give me Juan Soto. Okay.

I will take Fernando Tatis Jr. All right. Yeah. Okay. He hasn't played quite as well as Pete Tatis yet. No, he has not. But you have to figure, you know, there'd be some rust involved. I'm intrigued by the outfield conversion going pretty well so far.

Yeah. Yeah. I think that's it. We're saying words about why we're taking them. We have to go. We can say a few words. All right. I'm going to take Corbin Carroll.

Ah, dang it. Yeah. Yeah. He has quickly risen. He's so good. To the top. He is really from day one, he's just been very good. He's just so good.

He's so good at baseball and he's so fast. So, oh, we're talking. Ah! Okay, my turn? Yep. I'm taking Julio. Yeah, okay. It's totally defensible.

How long do you think it'll take before we take a pitcher? That's always the question. That's always the question. Okay, well, we're going to find out. We should just go. Yeah, when we did this at the Ringer, Bauman was always more pro pitcher than the rest of us, and we would make fun of him for taking pitchers much earlier.

And, yeah, well, we'll find out soon, I think. We're going to find out. Soon-ish. Okay, so you took Juan de Franco, and you took Julio, and you took who else? Tatis, right. I'm keeping a spreadsheet. Okay, excellent.

I'm doing itis, right. I'm keeping a spreadsheet. Okay, excellent. I'm doing it. All right. Then I am going to take – oh, this is already getting tough. All right. I'm going to take Ellie. Maybe it's too soon to take Ellie. Am I caught up in the hype and the novelty? I don't know.

Maybe, but who cares? Yeah, but who cares? He's really good. I mean, the thing about him is that he can play shortstop. I guess there's some chance that he won't because the Reds have other potential shortstops. But you don't really worry about him being unable to. He's going to move and his value will be compromised. And he just, like, despite the stat cast tools, like, he seems more refined as a player

than some other toolsy guys. Like, he just, you know, like, that first game, he took, like, a long plate appearances and a walk, too. Yeah, and he battled back from being behind in the count. Yeah, so he seems like a pretty polished, complete player despite his youth. So, yeah, I'm going to go with Ellie. And if I'm falling prey to the hype of his debut, then that's fine.

That's in the spirit of this draft. Oh, I'm so nervous. It's just so many guys. Wow. We're like a quarter of the way there already. Christopher Walken. Okay, I'm taking Vladdy. All right.

I was wondering where Vladdy would go. He's going right here. Yeah, okay. I think I would have taken him lower. I had him lower on my board. I don't know. I mean, his case is very dependent on just being elite offensively, which he has been. You're right.

And he has also not been at times. So I don't really know who the real Vladdy is, I guess, offensively. I'm excited to have 10 years to find out. What an optimistic. We spent the first 20 minutes of this being like, everyone gets old and dies and everything is bad. And then we're like, we'll do the pod for another 10 years. Land of contrast.

Yep. Yep. Okay, I'm gonna go with Gunnar Henderson. Okay. I guess, you know, off to maybe a slower start than I expected this season and based on how good he was last year and the prospect pedigree and all that, but my

mind has not changed very much about Gunnar Henderson. You know, as there is with Ellie, there's a question of, like, where will he play and will he play shortstop? And there are just so many infielders who are really good. But, yeah, going to go with Gunnar. Unfortunately, Adley is also ineligible for this draft. But, yeah, we've got another Oriol on here.

Okay. Well, I'm going to take Francisco Alvarez. Okay. He's eligible, right? Yes, yep. Francisco. All right, you know what? I'm going to take a pitcher at this point.

I'm going to take Strider. I'm going to take Strider, yeah. The only pitcher I really considered this high with a top five pick for me. Oh my God, we have to take so many. We have to draft so, so many more guys. Wow. It's not that many guys.

We already drafted like 10 guys already. We're like a third of the way there. God. This is sailing along. A third of the way there. We've each taken five dudes.

Yeah. Well, we're not each taking 25. Oh, we're not each taking 25. Oh, we're each taking 25. I was wondering why you were so worried about this. Real roller coaster. You know, it's almost like I didn't read things carefully enough in a job where reading comprehension is important. To be fair, I didn't specify that.

You didn't, and I got so nervous. Yeah, I was like, hey, we're going on a nice clip here. Meg's so scared about the timing. No. Oh, sorry. I did a really big swear. Please bleep it, Shane. Wow.

I'm so stressed, and I'm doing titanic swears. All right. So Spencer Strider basically has been one of the very best pitchers in baseball since the day he showed up. Yeah, just like mowing guys down. It's so scary to take a pitcher anywhere in these drafts because A, the injury risk, and B, pitchers just don't pitch that many innings anymore. They don't pitch that many innings anymore. So I actually looked at this and the percentage of pitching war produced by pitchers under 25 so far this season is the fifth lowest of any season ever. That feels right. Yeah.

And to find lower percentages, you have to go back to the 30s and 40s. Yeah. And to find lower percentages, you have to go back to the 30s and 40s. Like 1946 was the last time there was a lower percentage of pitching were produced by pitchers under 25. It's just teams are very cautious with young pitchers these days. Well, and a lot of them are hurt right now. Yeah, and a lot are hurt. And, you know, young guys, they just don't accrue a lot of innings. And who knows what's going to happen with pitcher usage over the next decade and how many innings anyone will be throwing. So there are a lot of reasons not to take pitchers, at least high up in this draft, but Spencer Schreider, he's really good.

He's really good. He's really good. He's really good. Okay, I'm going to take O'Neal Cruz. All right. Yeah, O'Neal Cruz, intriguing, very intriguing talent. Seemed like he was potentially putting it together and then he got hurt.

But I believe, I guess there's more danger that he will shift positions. Yes. That he will move to an outfield corner. Right.

Like, he is an interesting comp to put side by side with Ellie right now because, you know, you would think, okay, he's a more established big leaker. There should be less volatility in the profile.

But I think you can argue this might be this might be recency bias. But there is an argument maybe to be made that there's actually still more volatility in the profile because, you know, Ellie might not stay. Well, he's not playing shortstop right now, he is gonna seemingly stay on the infield that feels very certain even if he's not at short whereas cruz if he's not at short will pop out to the outfield and probably land left and then it's like whoa and you know i think we still have a lot of questions about what the contact is going to look like with him and his levers are so long. And I think that's been one of the things I've been so impressed with with Ellie because it's like his levers are so long, but he's so quick to the ball.

Wow. And, you know, Cruz is hurt. So all of that comes together to be like, actually, maybe there is a lot of volatility here, but he was certainly putting it together and it felt very exciting. And you want, I feel like both of us should have a construction crane-heighted guy. That seems only, that seems like a good narrative construct to put on a draft that I still do not understand the contours of. Yeah, neither of us should corner the market on cruises slash De La Cruises.

We should each have a pillar of our team should be a cruise or de la cruise. Yes, a literal pillar. Oh, there's so many. We're going to find something more satisfying than construction crane, but we are in a... People have worried about how O'Neill Cruz will age just because he's so big and they've cited just the not great aging of other players his size, but there's so few players his size

that I am not super persuaded by that but they're both giants but Cruz is even more giant at least height wise so if that is something that you're concerned about I don't know whether the difference between 6'7 and 6'5 is a huge one or not

they're both huge obviously so alright man okay now it's getting tough yeah where are you going? is a huge one or not. They're both huge, obviously. All right. Man, okay. Now it's getting tough. Yeah, where are you going? Easy thus far. But all right. I'll take Nolan Gorman, I guess.

Okay. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know if I feel good about Nolan Gorman this early, but he's having a heck of a season. I mean, there was concern last year that there might be just a hole in the swing and it might be a problem, but then he sort of rebuilt the swing and he's been excellent this season. And he was quite a highly touted prospect. So he's only 23, a young 23. Young 23, strapping.

Going Gorman. Going Gorman. Okay, where am I going to go? If you were me, what would you do? I can't tell you that. Okay, so I don't know if I'm going to end up feeling awesome about this later, but no. You know, it's hard. It's a difficult exercise.

You'd think it would be less difficult because there are just so many guys and they're all so talented. I'm going to take Michael Harris II. Here's my trepidation around that. And I voted in like an official capacity for Michael Harris II to be the NL Rookie of the Year last year. Yeah. And I did that, and I think we talked about it at the time.

I acknowledge that like that campaign might end up being his best season as a as a big leaguer right like that capacity seems possible i am impressed and i was impressed then and remain impressed now that he was basically able to like you know adapt to a new position on the fly like he really grabbed center field and he made swing changes at the big league level that were effective. I will say that like he does, it does look a little bit, a little bit bent,

like the body has backed up on him just a little bit, but he's been hurt. And so it's like, it's going to play your way into game shape and it's going to be fine, you know? And you know, he's, he's not hitting great right now. It's not the best,

but injury. And so you figure you've made an adjustment before. Maybe you make a... Yeah, sure. I should have specified if I didn't that this is limited to players who have made their big, great debuts already. So we're not going to be drafting Jackson Holiday or name your

top prospect. This would be a very different draft that I would still be confused by, but a different one. Yeah. I don't know how many guys who haven't debuted I would actually draft. I would take Jackson Holiday. Yeah, I guess he would be somewhere. Yeah, I would take Jackson Holiday in this draft for sure. All right.

I'm going to take another guy who's not off to the greatest start, Jordan Walker. Jordan Walker, who, I mean, look, he entered the year as top prospect in baseball, most hyped prospect in baseball potentially after the spring training that he had. And then there were too many outfielders in St. Louis and he slumped a bit after his early success. And then he got sent down and then he got brought back and he had started to hit well in AAA before he was summoned back to the big leagues due to some vacancies in the outfield. The big concern about him at this point seems to be that he's hitting too many balls on the ground.

He is a ground walker. We need a nickname for him as long as he's hitting too many ground balls. I guess we don't. I'm betting that he will not continue to hit so many ground balls. No, I think he'll be. He's very talented that he will make those adjustments. Perhaps he is already making those adjustments and he'll figure out how to play outfields given more repetition.

And he's extremely, extremely young. So I'm going to bet on the talent and the youth here, Jordan Walker. So I'm taking back-to-back Cardinals,

I guess. Well, look at you doing that. I would like to clarify Breyer's statement, which is that Michael Harris, the second, he played center field

in the minors like he wasn't it wasn't a new position but like he was you know he was playing one of the hardest defensive positions

at the big league level I didn't say that smartly I didn't say it in a way that was clear I said it in a way that made me sound like he had been

like playing left field predominantly before that which is not true and so you know I felt like clarifying so you don't get any emails

okay we do welcome your emails by the way we always say like we don't get any emails. Okay. We do welcome your emails, by the way. We always say, like, we want to head off emails. We love getting emails. It's just, you know, if we can save ourselves some correction emails by not making those mistakes or correcting ourselves. Right. Like, you know, did I wake up in the middle of the night a couple of nights ago being like, I think I said that having the same number of walks as strikeouts is sometimes bad.

And I didn't mean it like that. Anyway, it doesn't matter. Am I delaying my pick? Who could say? I'm going to take a pitcher. I'm going to be spicy with that. Just because, you know, I don't feel confident in pitchers. I think they're all going to get hurt.

I'm going to take Uri Perez. Yeah, okay. Yeah, taking Uri Perez. Yep, might have been my next pitcher off the board. Let's see. All right. I guess I'll go with Riley Green. Sure.

Yeah, he's off to a better start this year. Yeah. Which is nice. Which is nice. Yeah, He's off to a better start this year. Yeah. Which is nice. Which is nice. Yeah. He's quite young. I mean, everyone we're drafting here is quite young. This is a draft of young players.

It would be funny if you were like, he's ancient. He's still not 23 years old. And yeah, he's got a 125 OPS plus so far this season. Yeah. I'm going to take... I'm going to take Anthony Volpe. Okay. Yeah. I was considering when or whether to take him because he hasn't hit so well, obviously.

But the glove is good. And I believe in him. I don't know if he's going to be like a great, great hitter. But I think he can be a good hitter. So, sure. Anthony Volpe makes sense to me. All right. Oh, man.

Okay. Where are you going? What are you doing? Where am I going? What am I going to do here? What are you going to do? Gosh, this is getting tough. It's so hard.

They're all so talented. I don't know if I want to do this, but I guess I'm going to do this. I guess I'll take Hunter Green, who terrifies me because he throws so hard. You're cornering the market on greens. Yeah. I wrote about Jacob deGrom and his injury earlier this week at The Ringer, and I noted that Jacob deGrom has thrown way more triple digit pitches as a starter than anyone else,

except for Hunter Green, who's thrown even more than Jacob deGrom. That feels ominous. Yeah, it does. Like there are, I mean, there are very few pitchers who've thrown as hard as Hunter Green period,

but the track record health wise of guys who throw that hard or in that neighborhood, it's not the greatest. So he has looked quite good of late. When he's good, he looks really dominant and unhittable. And look, he throws so hard that he could throw a little less hard and he'd still be really hard throwing and really good. So I just, I'm going to hope that, you know, like, look, we're talking about a 10 year, at least draft here. So even if you price in a Tommy John surgery at some point that doesn't disqualify you from, from being a decent pick in this draft. Okay. I'm gonna take Gabriel Moreno yeah okay are we saying that the

pretty empty batting average that he has right now is like as good as the number would seem without further examination no he's hitting below 300 now never mind no I don't he has an 85 WRC plus He is hitting for no power at all. But he's a 23-year-old who is handling a big league staff in the primary catching role because, you know, their guys coming into the season are banged up.

are banged up and he had to learn a new staff on the fly after that off season trade. And I've been very impressed with him as sort of like a, you know, field general. So I think doing all of that on a relatively new to you ball club at 23 is pretty impressive. So do I think that the bat will come around? Yeah, I kind of do, you know, he's a catcher. So sure. It happens. It takes a little longer, like the aging curve for catchers, you know, sometimes it takes them a little while to get established. And also then sometimes the decline starts a little earlier because there's just so much wear and tear on them. But yeah, sometimes it takes a while for the bat to come around because that's just a part of their job. And sometimes not even considered the primary part of their job. So, sure.

He's an impressive athlete for the position, especially. So it's like, I think it'll be fine. That's what I think. And this is a long-term draft. So really, we should not be beholden to how these guys are doing this season in the past two months. I mean, we probably are prisoners of the moment to some extent here. It's hard to pick someone for the next 10 years if they're not doing well currently,

but also it's just such a long time that no one will remember how they were doing in those two months at the start of the 2023 season if they eventually turn it on. So who knows? I mean, we're all just, we have no idea. We're guessing. Who knows what will happen in the next decade?

I guess I had some reservations about taking a catcher. I considered taking Alejandro Kirk, who also qualifies for this and maybe one of us still will. I guess the problem with taking a catcher is that you're limiting the war you can derive from them, I guess, just in that they will probably play fewer games than most others. And we're not drafting like a roster of actual positions. So we don't have to take a catcher. But I think that is still a perfectly fine pick. All right. Gosh.

Okay. I'm going to take, I'm going to take Andre Semenis. No! Yes. Correct! I thought I was going to sneak him by you. Yeah, right, because it feels late for him. Yeah, it's because he's having a bad year.

Right, it's because he's not having such a good year. But if we had done this draft late last season, he probably would have been off the boards much earlier. Much earlier. So maybe I'm getting good value or maybe not. He just barely qualifies. He's 24 years and 278 days. Yeah, it's squeaky.

But he does qualify. Sneaking in under the wire here. Yeah, okay. So yeah, I don't know if the real Jimenez is closer to this season or last season. I don't really know. Like I was not expecting him to be quite as good as he was last year. That was somewhat surprising that he was that great, that he was sixth in the MVP voting.

I did not necessarily see that coming. Obviously, the Guardians signed him to an extension, so they're comfortable with the long-term outlook for Andres Jimenez. So I guess so am I. Okay. Disappointing. As if I didn't control my own fate. Well, I guess then what I'm going to do,

I've got to kind of bob and weave here a little bit. I've got to bob and weave. We have like three picks left each, I think. Sure, yes, we do. I've taken 10 guys, yeah. Maybe I'll take another pitcher. Maybe I'll take Connor Brown. Okay, yeah.

He was on my list of if I'm going to take pitchers, he would be someone I would potentially take. Okay, well, you could do worse than getting the guy modeled on the Justin Verlander mold, I guess, if you're going to draft someone for the next 10 years, want someone to last. Yeah. If only because there's the obvious Verlander comp and I get it. I get why people make that comp. But what I am maybe invested in is over the next 10 years, do we persist in the Verlander comp or do we embrace what might be a better comp of Fran Reveldes? So this is where, you know, I'm interested in seeing where we go. I don't know.

I don't know, Ben. We'll see where we are. Can't go wrong with either. Okay. Oh, okay. I know. It's so hard. This is getting agonizing here.

Because I've got like probably 20 more names on my board, my board being a spreadsheet here. But now they're not separating themselves quite as much as they were earlier in this draft. Okay. I guess I will take – oh, man. I guess I'll take – I was about to say a name and then I decided in the middle of saying it not to. And you were like, no, I take it back. Take it back. Man, I'm like attempted to take some pictures here, but I have sort of a philosophical aversion to taking pictures in long-term drafts. Yeah, wow. I just don't feel great about the position players who are left at this stage. There are a few I'm weighing.

I can't believe that you would insult Perdomo that way, Ben. Yeah, I know. Like, Jerry Perdomo, is he someone I want to take in this draft? I don't know. I wouldn't necessarily do that. No, I don't think so. So, okay. I'm doing it.

I'm definitely making a pick. Any second now. I can tell that you are thrilled. I'm on making a pick. You're very excited. Any second now. I can tell that you are thrilled. I'm on tender hooks. Okay. I'll take Isak Paredes. Oh, okay.

I don't know. I don't know, but I did it. Okay. You sound like me. Yeah. I don't know. He wasn't the same level of prospect that most of the guys we're taking are here. He was sort of squeaked on to top 100 lists as opposed to convincingly made them. He didn't catch on right away with the Tigers, and then the Tigers offloaded him to the Rays. And then, of course, he's been excellent with the Rays thus far I mean I don't know if

excellent is too strong but he's been very good right I mean he's been uh over two seasons now 167 games 590 plate appearances he's had 29 dingers you know kind of like a low average slugger sort but you know 20% or so better than league average. He plays a bunch of positions. He is 24. I don't know. I don't feel great about this pick, but I don't feel bad about it. I'm going to take Ezekiel Duran.

Okay. Ezekiel Duran, who he also plays a bunch of different positions in part to accommodate other fielders that have made their way into the big league lineup in Texas. But like, you know, he has a, well, I don't imagine that like this necessarily, necessarily what we're always going to get, but he has 152 WRC plus spend. Did you know that? Yeah. Well, he's another example of a guy who, if we were doing this last year, probably wouldn't have been drafted. Wouldn't have been drafted. He was a prospect, obviously. Yeah, he was a top 100 guy for us last year.

Yeah, but he hadn't put it together in the big leagues yet. Hadn't yet. And so in 10 years, some of these people will look back and be like, yeah. Oh, that was cute. Right. They'll be like, okay, that guy makes sense. Yeah, totally. This guy, you know, didn't pan out, but I totally see why they took that guy.

You know, maybe he got hurt or whatever it is. And some of them will probably be like, oh, yeah, he had a good couple months at the start of the 2023 season. And then that was that, you know. Yeah. If you're going to nitpick, you're like, this is a guy whose hit tool is like pretty fun. He chases a lot, but like the thump is there. And, you know, he's playing all over the place. And at 12, I feel like this was fine.

Yeah. Okay. I am going to take the best of the 24-year-old right-handers named Miller, who we talked about recently, I think, or at least the highest rated of the bunch when it comes to their prospect rankings and I guess also of their performance thus far. Bobby Miller. Bobby Miller. I will take Bobby Miller of the Dodgers, who has looked fantastic thus far. B. Miller of the Dodgers, who has looked fantastic thus far. Again, he's made three starts in the big leagues, so this might very well be a small-sample recency bias kind of thing.

And like any hard thrower, I'm scared. But, you know, I'll trust in the stuff and Dodgers pitcher development. We've got to take one of the Millers, right? I don't know whether anyone's going to take a Bryce Miller or Mason Miller, but we want some Miller representation here. So Bobby Miller's my guy. Okay. Well, speaking of Bobbies, I'm going to take Bobby Witt Jr. Oh, yeah. See, I was wondering whether he'd get drafted, which like, again, if we had done this last year, he would have been what first on the, like, you know,

first. He would have been in the first three rounds at the latest, right? Yeah, definitely. He would have been a top pick. And I don't know. I don't know what to make of Bobby Miller, Bobby Witt these days. It's like the defense, you know. It's confusing. It's very confusing.

Yeah. I guess the defense has not been as bad this year as it was last year. I guess he has improved there maybe, but he has hit even worse. So I don't really know. But again, it's a long timeframe here and he's not even 23 yet. And if you had asked us a year ago when he was best prospect in baseball, potentially, we would have said, yeah, for sure. So I think it makes sense. Even if he's a little depreciated relative to where he was, maybe you've gotten a steal here. Yeah, maybe. Maybe. Okay. All right.

Is this my last pick? This is your last pick. Assuming we're doing 13 and not 25 each. We won't do 25 each. No. I was so nervous. I really rushed you because I was like, I have to go get a haircut so I look like less of a gremlin. We've talked about this. Well, I understand if you thought, yeah, no, if you thought we were drafting twice as many players as we are, then I can see why you were. I was so stressed, Ben. All right. I can't believe I'm taking another pitcher, but I'm going to take Taj Bradley here.

Okay. Yeah, it makes me nervous. I think Taj is going to be good. Me too. Yeah. With raised pitchers in particular, you never know how much work they're going to get, how many innings they're going to throw. Not that he'll necessarily be a raised pitcher for the next 10 years, but I've

been impressed with Taj's work thus far. So, I don't know. I thought about, like, are we into the, have we completed our drafts now? I think so. Are we into the also-rans, the players we considered?

Oh, we can. Would you like a recap of your results to make sure that I did them correctly? I think I wrote down mine. Okay. So let's see if we have this. I got Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll, Ellie De La Cruz, Gunnar Henderson, Spencer Striderider Nolan Gorman Jordan Walker Riley Green Hunter Green

Andres Jimenez Isak Paredes Bobby Miller and Taj Bradley Okay, yes Okay Want to recap yours? I took

Wander Franco Fernando Tatis Jr. Julio Rodriguez Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Francisco Alvarez O'Neal Cruz Michael Harris II Yuri Perez

Anthony Volpe Gabriel Moreno Hunter Brown Eiel Duran, and Bobby Witt Jr. Okay. All right. So that's our top 26 under 25. Who have already debuted. Who have already debuted. Yes. Important stipulation there.

Important. Okay. Yeah. So I've got a lot of names left on my board. So I guess just so we don't snub anyone completely here, who else were you considering for your final picks? Oh, sure. Yeah. I mean, I was thinking about living a Bryce Miller lifestyle.

I was thinking about Brian Baio. I was thinking about, you know, on the position player side, I was like, how much do I believe in Jared Kelnick? Not enough to take him. Not enough, I guess. I thought about Matt McClain. Me too. I was going to hedge my bets and, you know, I took Ellie and I take Matt McClain too. I'd have the shortstop of the future, whoever it is. I thought about Brett Beatty. I thought about, let's see, what other position players did I think about? I thought about Kirk. I thought about Logan Ohapi also.

I thought about Logan Ohapi. I thought about, let's see. I did entertain briefly and then quickly dismiss Perdomo. And look, it's so fun, but I don't think it's likely to persist. It seems unlikely to persist. I thought about Miguel Vargas. Then I stopped thinking about that. I, you know, I thought about Joey Weimer.

I thought about Casey Schmidt. I thought about Kiebert Ruiz just because I'm like. Me too, yeah. You know, like, what's going on there? That's so weird. That's such a weird, you know. I thought about how bummed I am that, like like C.J. Abrams has still not been hit in a while. Right. Yeah, there were a few guys who were in that category of like

yeah, C.J. Abrams, Spencer Torkelson, right? Von Grissom, Bryce Terang, you know, Tristan Casas, Royce Lewis. I guess I had too many knee concerns, but Dylan Carlson was eligible for this draft. Yeah, Royce Lewis sure has been hitting a little bit lately. Just a little bit lately. It's gone better.

Really, really recently. Like maybe it was only the one game. I thought about Reid Detmers. I like Reid Detmers. And Mackenzie Gore is pitching pretty well these days. Tanner Bibby. Mason Miller, who is hurt, but when he was not yet hurt, he looked quite good. Logan Allen, the new Logan Allen.

Bryce Elder, who's been good. And then Grayson Rodriguez, right? Yeah, I didn't know what to do there. I didn't know what to do either. I mean, I clearly made a decision, but I don't know if I'm confident. Yeah. Like up until whatever, six weeks ago or something, we probably would have taken Grayson Rodriguez.

So again, are we reading too much into his struggles to start the season with the Orioles? Quite possibly. I mean, he was probably the best pitching prospect in baseball, right? So how much has actually changed in a month or two? Maybe not enough to not draft him, but we didn't draft him. We didn't draft him. Yeah.

Okay. Wow. That was really stressful, Ben. Yeah. Well, there are a lot of really good young players. There are so many. The first to remark on that, and it's not the first time we have remarked on that, but even with

a really impressive age 25 group, guys who have aged out of the under 25 cohort who have been there for a while, the Jordans and the Acunas, etc., it's still extremely strong even without them. So, the game

is in good hands, I would say. And we will track this. This will be on the Effectively Wild Drafts and Competitions spreadsheet where John Chenier, our official stat keeper, keeps track of these things despite having probably much more important things to do and actually like working in baseball now. But yes, we will keep track of this. And maybe I'll put a poll up too,

just for some listener interaction here. So you can choose one of our teams and we'll see who the favorite is based on the crowdsourcing here, whether the wisdom of crowds favors one of our rosters or not. And we will check in in 10 years, hopefully, or probably even before then to see how things are going. We hope all the players are good, but some of them probably won't be. Yeah, we want everyone to do well. I mean, ideally, like we went, one of us wins just like on the squeakiest of squeakers because everyone is doing so well. Yeah. Yeah.

George Kirby doesn't count either. Doesn't qualify. Yeah. Late cut. He's four months over the deadline. Yeah. George Kirby doesn't count either. Doesn't qualify. Yeah. Late cut. He's four months over the deadline. Jesus Lozardo doesn't count. I live in fear that we have omitted someone extremely obvious and everyone will email us and say, how did you leave out so-and-so because we were looking at the wrong leaderboard or had the wrong cutoff or something. So if we omitted someone, extremely obvious, our apologies to all of you and to that person. I brought my innings pitched cutoff down to like 20 for the year. I made it zero because I was afraid if I was so paranoid about missing anyone. I just, I took all, and you know, I was like, is there someone who hasn't played this year, who played last year, who would qualify, but maybe has been hurt or something to start the season and I'm going to be kicking myself if I didn't draft that guy? Maybe.

We'll find out. Maybe. We're going to find out. Yeah. All right. Let's do a past blast, which comes to us from 2017 and also from David Lewis, who is an architectural historian and baseball researcher based in Boston. also from David Lewis, who is an architectural historian and baseball researcher based in Boston. And David writes, pace of play rules target replay. In 2017, Major League Baseball's eternal search for ways to speed up the game turned toward one of its newer innovations, replay review.

First announced in February 2017, the league sought to limit the amount of time managers had to decide whether or not to challenge a play. While the rule at the time suggested that the decision needed to limit the amount of time managers had to decide whether or not to challenge a play. While the rule at the time suggested that the decision needed to be made immediately, delays often took place as managers mulled the decision over with team replay assistance. While the league was eager to make pace of play improvements anywhere they could, an ESPN article published when the rule change was announced suggested that they did not have a lot of ground to make up when it came to replay. According to the report, the average review time during the

2016 season was just 1 minute 36 seconds, down from an average of 1 minute 51 seconds in 2015. Furthermore, 74.5% of reviews in 2016 took less than two minutes, and 23.5% took less than one minute. The only place to make up time within the replay system seemed to be within managers' decision-making time, which was not tracked as a part of the above data. By the time the league and the Players Association agreed on the rule changes in March 2017, an additional rule was put in place requiring umpires to make their decisions on replay reviews in under two minutes. This rule, however, came with vaguely outlined various exceptions that would allow for umpires to take more time if needed. And they're continued to be trimming in this area even this season, right?

There were some new crackdowns and regulations on how long you could take to signal for a replay review even now. So we're still tinkering with the system after all this time. Now you got to put your little hand up and go, oh, no, no. Right. Exactly. You put your little hand up and go, oh, no, no. I'm thinking about it. And it's like, is this really the time saver that we anticipated? It's like, no, no, wait, I got to think more. My big brain. It's all small beans, really.

Everything other than the pitch clock, it's kind of chump change by comparison. I mean, with the pitch clock, you have to monitor that, too, and you have to make sure that the Philly pitch clock isn't super sped up, I guess, also. But all the attempts to

cut back seconds here and seconds there, it all just didn't really amount to all that much until you put the pitch clock in place. And then it was like, oh, okay. That was all we really needed to do all along just in one fell swoop. We can make this super speedy

with a handy dandy clock. Just a hill of beans otherwise. All right. Well, we have one more episode to record because we rearranged some things due to multiple factors, including me not being able to speak very

well. But we'll be back with one more episode before the end of the week. And there's not a lot of week left, which means we will be back with another episode soon. And happy Pride weekend to everyone, including Anthony Bass, I guess. What do you think? Not to extend this episode too much longer when we were about to go, because I know you have to get your hair cut.

Because I'm trying to look less like a gremlin. But the Bass and Matt Dermody, I guess you can kind of lump them together, both have been designated for assignments as we record here on Friday after having made homophobic comments or shared homophobic videos and basically declined to atone, right? I mean, they made apologies, but very qualified apologies, which were much more like, I shouldn't have shared that. You know, I shouldn't have said that out loud. You know, I shouldn't have become a distraction to the team, but not I have changed my views very much. I'm standing by my views, which, you know, hey, yeah, you're entitled to have your views. And people are entitled to think that they're bigoted views. Yeah, right. Which is what happened.

I mean, the thing that was kind of curious about it with both these guys is that, like, they're the definition of replacement level players. Right. I mean, Matt Dermody, like, you couldn't come up with a better, like, textbook replacement level player. Like, I mean, the Red Sox called him up like as a replacement to make a replacement start. Basically, he is replacement level for his career and he pitched like a replacement level pitcher and then they cut him after the game.

And, you know, the comments like by Heimblum were sort of like, we talked to him and, you know, he didn't mean to hurt anyone. This was referring to a tweet that he had made a couple of years ago where he was basically like gay people are going to hell, you know, more or less. And I don't know how that could not be intended to be hurtful except I guess he might say like, hey, this is a PSA. You know, I'm trying to warn them. I'm trying to save them from the eternal hellfire because I care about everyone and therefore

I'm trying to fill them in on where they're going to go if they don't do things differently. So thanks a lot, Nat. And Bass was sort of the same thing where he shared a video about how selling LGBTQ pride merch at

Target is satanic and demonic. And, you know, he said that wasn't hateful either somehow. So the whole thing, it's kind of a consistent theme with the baseball players who said these things is it's very much like maintaining that you don't hate the person and you care for everyone. You just, you know, some people have put it like Daniel Murphy back in the day. He's like, I disagree with the lifestyle, that kind of thing. And it's like, well, you can't be inclusive and welcoming and not hateful and then also reject who people are and a core part of their identity and suggest that they just shouldn't act on it, then everything would be fine. If they just cut themselves off from a core part of being

a human being, well, then that'd be fine. Then I won't be offended. And then you'll be by the book, that one part of the Bible that says that, that we pay attention to that part and not the other parts that go against that or that say other things that we ignore, et cetera, right? But I wonder with the response to this, because Bass, who pitched pretty well last year but has been replacement level himself this year, you know, he's a 35-year-old like journeyman reliever and Dermody is even more of a marginal fringe major leaguer. And, you know, I guess there might be some considerations like I was reading in the Toronto Star that, you know, there could be a concern that, well, if you suspended someone just based on an opinion that they have,

you know, they're allowed to think these things, right? Can you suspend someone for that? And the Star report said maybe there could be a grievance on behalf of the Players Association. Both of these guys could be DFA'd on a performance basis because they just haven't performed very well. But I wonder whether the long leashes that they got and the chances to sort of read these scripted statements and then sort of, you know, stand by their personal beliefs. And then there was even that strange little time when it sounded like Anthony Bass was

somehow going to be part of the Pride Tonight event and he was going to be catching the first pitch somehow, which from the moment I saw it, I was like, that can't possibly happen. Like something will intervene to stop that from happening. And what it is, is that Anthony Bass is no longer actually actually on the blue chase, so you cannot catch that pitch. But I wonder whether part of it is that. I mean, I guess you do have to be sensitive about can you just release someone or suspend someone based on an opinion that they expressed, however onerous. But also, I wonder whether teams are thinking like how many players either share these beliefs or, you know, are not offended by these beliefs and just didn't take the lots of players who've made strong, inclusive statements and gestures and everything. And I would guess that it's probably a minority, certainly players

who feel as strongly about this and have as extreme a stance on this as guys like Dermody and Bass. But you got to figure like it's kind of a Pandora's box can of worms for baseball teams when it's like, if we take a strong stance on this, are other players who share those beliefs not going to play for us? Is there going to be some cost there other than just people tweeting about it and organizing call-in campaigns on the far right kind of thing? So I wonder how much of it is that kind of consideration, rightly or wrongly. Yeah, I imagine that there is probably, I think that orgs are probably pretty clear-eyed about the percentage of their playing population that at the very least is indifferent to what Bass had

to say, right? And many who probably strongly agree with him. And so I think that there probably is a practical consideration here on the part of most teams that if you start cutting all the guys who share those views, you might end up with some pretty small baseball teams. Yeah. I mean, I think that like, just to, I have a lot of thoughts and so I apologize if these are not particularly well pulled together, but I think we can just be like less credulous in the face of, well, he didn't mean to hurt anyone when someone is espousing a viewpoint that is like hurtful on its face, but is meant to be shaming and scary, right? Like I can speak from my own experience here because I do have some of my worst cousins who probably agree with Anthony Bass about this stuff. And like when they invoke hell, whether it's autonomy or LGBTQ people, like, being themselves, they want it to feel bad. They want it to be scary. That's the stick in service of, you know, repenting and conversion, right? Like, that's the point. It's supposed to be bad. If it weren't a threat, you wouldn't take it seriously and then like live a life in the way that they think you should. And I understand that there's this thing

that happens where like the idea of like hate the sin, not the sinner is perceived as like a softer, less exclusionary approach. But like we know the damage that that does. Like when you tell someone that they can't give expression to a core part of their identity, like we know what that does for mental health, for suicidal ideation. Like that rhetoric is dangerous and it hurts presented as like, I care for everyone. And even if that is a genuine perspective that the person has and not just like a PR ploy, I think we can say, I know you think that, but what you think is nonsensical. Like this doesn't hang together and we don't have to lend it credence. So there's that piece of it. I mean, I think that like before he was DFA'd, I just think controversial take. I say this as a straight person, like Pride Night shouldn't be about us. Pride Night's not about me. It shouldn't be about

me. It super shouldn't be about straight people who don't seem to like gay people, but it shouldn't even be about the straight people who do. Like, it's just, that's not about me. That's not the purpose of Pride. That's even within like the corporatized, sanitized version of Pride that we get at the ballpark. It's not the purpose. So it's just like this isn't our show and it shouldn't make it that way. these questions and grow in a way that does lead to not like a qualified version of tolerance, but like a real understanding of how powerful it can be to recognize the dignity of another person and do that in an unqualified way. And if you have to put that within an architecture of faith,

okay, like that's your business. It's not mine. If that helps you to do it, cool. But like, If that helps you to do it, cool. But we shouldn't make that about him figuring it out. Particularly after you listen to his answers where it's like, oh, you haven't changed your mind about any of this. Congratulations, you got through your press conference without calling someone a groomer. But otherwise, I don't think you really did uncover yourself in glory here. How was there not that? Yeah, it's been like a week or 10 days. I mean, if that's your stance that recently, and you feel it's that important to you, I would be surprised if you did a complete 180 on something like that in a week or something. So it's just reflecting on,

maybe I shouldn't say that out loud as opposed to maybe I shouldn't think that, but. And to be clear, I do think that there is some value for everyone's experience of safety at the ballpark and enjoyment for these dudes shutting up. Like there is, it's not what I ideally want, but like, you know, like we said, I doubt he is alone in his thoughts. And I can think of off the top of my head, and I'm not going to name him, like I can think of some high profile players who based on what I've heard them say about their personal politics, about the way that their relationship to faith manifests, probably agree with them. And you know what? I don't know that because they have kept

their little mouth shut. And there's value in that. Now, I do think that, like, that isn't enough. And particularly when you think about the clubhouse as a workplace that doesn't have an out player, like you can see how it isn't, you know, there's like a limit to the usefulness of just being quiet because in order for you to create an atmosphere and an environment where a gay player or a non-binary player feels comfortable coming out, it probably requires more than just like grudging silence on the part of his teammates. So I don't mean to say that it's like sufficient, but in terms of fan experience, I do think that there is a lot to like knowing this rhetoric, however I understand it within my conception of my faith, you know, however generous and caring I perceive it to be, I understand that

these words are hurtful because, you know, I, player X, believe hell is real. And so, saying to someone, hey, by the way, that's where you're headed might be, you know, hurtful to them. Keeping that thought to yourself, I think, does help. Yeah, sure. I hope that it is that, like, listening to the impact that those words have on people, you know, inspires a process of sort of like reflection that leads you to a different place. But I, especially given like how much of pride we have had to spend hearing from people who don't think pride should exist.

Like, shutting up has value, too. Yeah. Yeah. Even if it's genuinely coming from what you think is a place of compassion, it's just, it's not. It's not compassionate. I mean, you might think it is, but it's just not. I don't think there is a way to express that thought, to hold that thought. I mean, you're entitled to think whatever you want, and Anthony Bass can have his personal beliefs. But whatever your motivation for thinking that and saying that, I can't imagine that anyone would receive it in a way that sounds anything other than intolerant. It just kind of inherently is whatever your motivation for it is. Yeah.

So anyway, I hope that folks can have a nice and nice isn't even the right word. I hope people can have an experience of pride that has nothing to do with Anthony Bass. Right. Yes. It would be nice if this were not dominated by conversations about Bass or Dermody or Trevor Williams or anyone else who has caused a stir over the Dodgers Pride Night or anything else over the past few weeks. So it is sort of unfortunate that that has come to dominate the conversations about that, including on this podcast. But they are now no longer in the big leagues, at least for now,

Anthony Bess and Matt Dermody, at least. So we will move on. All right, that will do it. Just a couple updates for you here. First, the baseball simulation game, Blaseball, came to an end about a week ago, sadly. I know some of our listeners were involved in the Blaseball community. If you'd like to commemorate it via Effectively Wild, we did interview some of the makers of that game back on episode 1663. I will link to that on the show page. And while I'm recommending old episodes and things related to those episodes, back in February episode 1963, I talked to Jason Jenks of The Athletic about his many oral histories of Zach Granke's career. I joked with him that because Granke was coming back for another season, that meant that Jason would have to do another edition.

And he did. He and Rustin Dodd teamed up on a piece headlined, What the Heck Was That? 10 Stories That Explain Why There's No Pitcher Like Zach Granke. I know a lot of you love Granke like we do, so I will link to that piece on the show page if you want to slake your thirst for more Granke stories. Also, we discussed earlier this week whether Aaron Judge actually went directly through the outfield wall in Los Angeles when he hurt his toe or whether he just went through a gate. Well, Stan Kasten of the Dodgers says he didn't go through the door,

which is what I thought when I was watching the game. Then I got out there and realized the door doesn't open in that direction. He actually broke through where some of the panels were joined, the barrier between the two connecting panels, which is unbelievable, but we're going to strengthen that and add a strip of padding on the bottom as well. Judge, of course, is on the IL, but you should see the other guy, or see the other wall in this instance. We also got an email from a listener who suggested that perhaps the reason why Shohei Otani throws so many sweepers to opposite-handed hitters,

despite the fact that in general that seems to be a bad idea. The pitch has a big platoon split and left-handed hitters have hit his sweepers much better than right-handed hitters. This listener speculated that maybe Otani himself has hit well against sweepers from opposite-handed pitchers, maybe righties who've thrown him sweepers. He's hit them really well. And so his two-way experience is holding him back, is giving him a misimpression of how effective sweepers are to opposite-handed hitters. Well, I looked into it and no, that is not the case. Otani has followed the typical pattern of hitting sweepers very well when they are thrown by opposite-handed pitchers and hitting them not so well from same-handed pitchers. So he has seen 116 sweepers from left-handed pitchers,

and he has produced a.326 Woba against them. He's seen 108 sweepers from right-handed pitchers. Notice he's seen fewer sweepers from opposite-handed pitchers, despite there being more righties than lefties generally. And he has crushed those to the tune of a.495 Woba. So if anything, his personal experience as a hitter should have reinforced the idea that sweepers are less effective

against opposite-handed hitters, but he has not drawn that conclusion as of yet. Perhaps he will in time. Also got to give you a Jake Diekman update. Back on episode 2005, we each predicted what Jake Diekman's FIP would be with the Rays. He had been released by the White Sox,

then the Rays picked him up, and this was sort of the ultimate test of do the Rays actually make pitchers better? Jake Diekman, who had been very ineffective for the White Sox, who had not been successful as a team to that point, though there are only a few games had a first in that woeful AL Central these days. While the Rays have seemingly encouraged Diekman to make some changes, here I'm quoting from Alexandra Whitley's piece at Baseball Prospectus on Friday. With the Rays, Alexandra wrote, Diekmann is throwing more from a sidearm slot, lowering his release point by a few inches by extending his horizontal release point half a foot toward first base. To accentuate

these changes, his fastballs, a four-seamer and sinker, which look quite similar, are adding more arm side run. From a bit under 17 inches to a bit over 18 with a touch more sink too, it's also a half tick harder. His sweeping slider and new cutter have been pushed to the side, the latter entirely in the sweeper down to once per appearance usage. The fastballs and changeup have soaked up that space. In short, the Rays identified something they liked about Diekmann, how his running fastball pairs with a fairly extreme horizontal release angle and went all in on it, setting aside any other changes for a later date. So how has this revamped Diekmann done?

Through 11 games and 9 1⁄3 innings, he has produced a 4.25 FIP for the Rays. And as you may recall, Meg predicted that he would have a 4.25 FIP for the Rays. So thus far, she is bang on. I predicted 4.0. That's your Diekmann update for the day. Lastly, we got an email from listener Kevin in response to our segment earlier this week about super errors, how we need a new designation to describe errors that are particularly egregious and embarrassing. This was prompted by a Red Sox miscue or multiple miscues on the same play. I read part of a quote from Alex Cora about how that defense was unacceptable. And I talked

about the fact that Alex Cora is ultimately responsible for the unacceptable defense, which puts him in sort of an awkward position. Kevin wrote in to say that Alex Cora is ultimately responsible for the unacceptable defense, which puts him in sort of an awkward position. Kevin wrote in to say that Alex Cora actually did take responsibility for the defense. Not sure if it was in the same conversation as the quote mentioned in the episode, but it was after the same game. He said, at the end, it's on me. I'm the manager of this club and we've been sloppy. It's not about pointing fingers. The roster is the roster and we have to play better baseball.

I'm the manager of this team and defensively, we're not good. We're not. We keep working. We're going to coach the players until we get it play better baseball. I'm the manager of this team and defensively, we're not good. We're not. We keep working. We're going to coach the players until we get it right. When? I don't know. If it's tomorrow, it's 59 games too late, but we've got to keep going. Hadn't seen that part of the quote, so thank you, Kevin.

I was not actually trying to suggest that Cora had shirked responsibility for the bad defense. I was just saying that it puts him in sort of a strange position because he has to condemn the bad defense. But in doing so, it kind of puts the onus on him because he's the manager. So there's no way to condemn the defense without condemning his own managing. Obviously, he recognized that. Kevin also notes the Yankees gave up a Little League home run to Jose Azocar and the Padres just one week earlier. And it might have been even worse. Not that each of these types of plays needs to be mentioned on the show. I only mention it because I thought it was ironic

that Ben's transition to the next segment on Aaron Judge was I did want to bring up a better AL East team, which I think is true generally, but just funny in this context. True enough, I don't know if that super error was worse, but it did deserve the super error designation. Even good teams make bad plays, but the Red Sox sure seem to make more of them than most.

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Wild. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We will be back to talk to you soon. girl hearing grandma's handheld babies collecting baseball cards before I could breathe they say I waste my time

tracking all these stat lines but it's here I found my kind they're all

effectively wild Hello and welcome to episode two thousand... Sorry Shane, let me take you again. Shall I? Okay. Hello and welcome to episode 2007. Sorry Shane, let me take it again. Shall I? Okay. Effectively wild. Very effectively and very wild.