Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2031: No Peeking in the Press Box

Episode Date: July 12, 2023

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Meg’s experiences at the Futures Game, the draft, and the Home Run Derby, Derby highlights, the Derby on TV vs. in person, Elly De La Cruz’s mad dash, and the Yankees switching hitting coaches, plus a Future Blast (49:12) from 2031. Then (54:25) Ben talks to FanGraphs lead […]

Romantic, pedantic, and hypothetical. Semantic and frantic, real or theoretical. They give you the stats and they give you the news. It's a baseball podcast you should choose. Effectively Wild is here for you. About all the weird stuff that players do. Authentically strange and objectively styled. Let's play ball. It's Effectively Wild. It's Effectively Wild. It's Effectively Wild. Hello and welcome to episode 2031 of Effectively Wild, a Fangraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters.

I'm Meg Rowley of Fangraphs, and I'm joined as always by Ben Lindberg of the ringer ben how are you i'm all right how's seattle oh man it's so good sunny skies yeah yeah i mean not for the entirety of the the derby but um very very nice we're we're tricking everyone this is you know, to bring people here in the summer. Everyone's like, it's wonderful. And then they move here and then it's December. It's like this year ends. Come settle in Seattle. Yeah. Actually, December is not when you contemplate your life choices in Seattle because like, you know, it's dark, but it's December. It's understood to be a kind of bleak weather time. But you have all the holiday lights, right?

So you're like, oh, this is twinkly and magical. February is when you're like, what did I do voluntarily, though? That's when that sets in. Yeah, that's true of February in a lot of places, I think. Yeah, I suppose that's true. It's not our best month, but this is an exciting week and you've gotten to go to the various all-star events.

So I am going to be talking to Eric Langenhagen, who has also been out there about the draft. You have to attend a BBWAA meeting during that time. I do.

Your schedule is constrained by all the fun events that you're getting to go to or the less fun but maybe important events also. What are you talking about? Those BBWA meetings are a laugh riot. Famous for that. Gambling is going to be discussed? Sports betting?

Yes. year the commissioner and the head of the MLBPA give the assembled BBWA members some time at the all-star break. This is a little tradition that we have. And we don't normally do business at that meeting because, you know, unlike the winter meetings, a relatively small percentage of the membership is at the all-star break. But we are contemplating what steps we as a body need to take to maintain our integrity and the appearance of our integrity, which I think is equally important in matters such as this, as it pertains to gambling and gambling content. So I don't think we're making any big moves. But we might be authorizing some study and contemplation of the question.

Which I, as our listeners will be unsurprised to learn, find quite important. So I was like, Ben, I'm sorry. I would love to talk about all of the bright young men who are joining the affiliated ranks, but I got to go do some biz. Well, I'm a known amateur baseball expert, so we'll be in good hands for that segment. things about getting Eric to talk about the draft is that he's sort of like the spinning

little top in Inception. You just got to get him going and he'll guide you. Don't worry. I could just say, so the draft, and he'd probably go on for an hour or so and we'd be done. Yeah. I mean, I can offer some draft thoughts in terms of how it has evolved as an event, if you are interested in those. You know, I will say that I was initially skeptical about the location of the draft because they're like, we're holding it on the field at Lumen Field, which is the stadium where the Seahawks play and also Seattle's two pro soccer teams. And I thought, well, that's a sure big space.

And how many people are going to the draft? That's going to look weird. But it did not. Once again, I don't want to encourage MLB in its decision-making because I remain convinced that the only person who wants the draft to be in July is the commissioner. Because the team personnel, they hate it, Ben. They hate it strongly.

They think it's a bad decision. The folks who cover prospects very closely, they don't like it. Because you can't concentrate on the future's game when the draft's the next day. It's not at an ideal point in the calendar, but it is at an ideal point in the calendar insofar as there were a lot of people there, Ben. Yeah. You know? And not just in the little section immediately in front of the stage, but they had, had like seating in the couple of sections near the north end zone there were a lot of people in those they were they were full up i mean

folks started to trickle out after the mariners had made their first round picks but it was full they had a bunch of play ball stuff down on the field and so it didn't feel like this weird tiny pimple of a set in the greater landscape of Lumen. So it was good. We did not roast in the sun like last year. I did not feel like an ant being held captive under a magnifying glass. So, yeah, I get that piece of it, but I maintain that if you were to tell a bunch of sports fans, hey, come do a sports thing, they'd do it in June. And I still think that the really good venue for the draft is just they should hold it in Omaha during the College World Series. Because you know who's crazy about college baseball players? College baseball fans. Sure.

They're enthusiastic. Anyone particularly impress you at the Futures game? No. It was, I would say, a down year for the Futures game. I think that the league should contemplate the question we what do we want this event to do you know what do we think having a basically a minor league all-star game what is it meant to accomplish because it continues to be just seven innings which felt very fast this year because, you know, they have the pitch clock. And you're getting a fresh arm kind of every half inning. And so guys are throwing hard.

They're striking dudes out. You know, I don't – I think that it is a worthwhile endeavor to, like, highlight future stars the name futures game but when you when you compress it to seven innings so that you can get the celebrity soft softball game in it suggests that like the game is not taking itself seriously and so i don't know how you then expect you know fans and whatnot to take it seriously seriously. So that's kind of where I'm at. Although they did show everyone the challenge system. Yes, that's right. So if for no other reason than that, it was a rousing success because I think I overheard the people, Ben. The people being like, oh, that's nifty.

And I was like, it is. This is my best take. That's good. Yeah, you're getting the man on the street, the people on been like, oh, that's nifty. And I was like, it is. This is my best take. That's good. Yeah, you're getting the man on the street, the people on the street reaction. It was positive. That's encouraging. So fast, Ben. So fast.

Yeah. And did you also get to attend the Home Run Derby? I did attend the Home Run Derby. Boy, was that cool, you know? Yeah. I'll say that, like, when you're from a place, you know about it. You can appreciate the areas in which the city has tried to maybe dress itself up so that it impresses out of town visitors. And I think that that's an understandable impulse. It does sort of mean that, like,

I know that the city of Seattle has, like, maybe done some sweeps of places where unhoused folks live. So there's, like, a, you know, there's this tension that exists around really big, exciting sporting events like this where you're, like, you're aware of the excitement, you feel that, but you're also conscious of like the maybe failures of municipal government, the city's trying to cover up. So like, you know, you do have to sit with that even as you're very excited. And I just had a delightful time at the Derby. I was incredibly nervous that I would die a home run related death, rather.

Because even though the only hitter in the Derby to take left-handed swings was Rutchman, he was getting them up there. was Retchman. He was getting them up there. And I've got to say, during the Futures game BP, there were some balls launched into the Oxbox with great force. And it was not as dramatic as, say, what happened at the All-Star game at Coors where it felt like there was a non-zero chance of a baseball writer taking one to the head. But here are my highlights from the Derby.

The most dangerous place to be was clearly being one of the ball shaggers while Vlad was hitting. Yeah, that kid definitely, like a kid definitely got beat, right? Oh, yeah. They're okay from what I've heard. But yes, they just got leveled by a liner. You know, from my vantage, I had very clear view of the kids shagging fly balls. But like I turned back to home plate. And so it was a very startling image because then when I looked back to the outfield, this kid was just lying there. And I was like, oh, dear. They did get up and walk off under their

own power, which was a huge relief. But yeah, just motionless on the field for a minute, which was just disturbing to see. But yeah, go ahead. It is very important that you say flies after you talk about watching kids on the field shagging just to complete the sentence, I think is crucial there. But you were talking about your highlights. Highlights, yes. Yeah, that was not one of them.

That was not one of them. Your highlights. Yeah, that was not one of them. That was not one of them. Adley switching to hit right-handed was very cool. I don't know if that has happened before in a derby. If it has, please someone inform us because I know there have been switch hitters in the derby, but they typically pick a side and stick to it. Going back to 1960, the Home Run Derby show, Mickey Mantle was in it. I believe he batted from the right side exclusively.

And then there have been times like Lance Berkman, when he was in the derby, he hit just batted right-handed because he had more power from the right side. And also it was in Minute Maid Park, and he wanted to take advantage of the short porch over there that was 2004 i think usually a switch hitter has more power from one side and that is true for adly as well he has more power from the left side but you would think that in a derby there might be some advantage to doing what he did because we saw guys get winded, right? Like, the thing about the Derby now is that there's so many home runs hit, so many more than there used to be. This was a record this year, and that's good, I guess. You watch the home run Derby, you want to see a lot of home runs.

That's kind of the point of the exercise. That is the point of the Derby, yeah. Yeah, but also what we used to think was miraculous and extraordinary in terms of the number of home runs hit, like Josh Hamilton hitting 28 in a round in the 2008 derby. It was like, oh, my God. And now that happens every time. I mean, someone matches or rivals or exceeds that kind of commonplace. So you would think if you're taking that many swings and you can see guys get winded and they're sweaty and they're taking timeouts and everything, that it would be advantageous to be able to turn around and hit from the other side. It's like,

we've answered emails about if you had an ambidextrous pitcher, could he just kind of pitch every day, right? Because he rests from one side and then pitches from the other side. And maybe it doesn't quite work that way. You're still using the same parts of your body to do some of the motions and pitching. And the same is true for hitting, I guess. But still, you would think you'd be relatively fresh from the other side if you could turn around. And he did hit seven homers or something, right, in the 30 seconds after he turned around. So it seemed to work. He came up just short. Rosarena hit one more home run than he did in that round and eliminated him.

But as a proof of concept, it seems like, hey, okay, this is a life hack for switch hitters in the home run derby. It's like, hey, okay, this is a life hack for switch hitters in the home run derby. Well, and I think that, and this is true, I think, of most of the fields this year. It felt like there was a real appreciation for and willingness to lean into the showmanship of the event in a way that, like, that's what it's there for. It's there for you to see a bunch of big, strong guys hit a bunch of balls real far. And if they can add some flair to it when they do it, like it makes it fun and dynamic. And like the vibe in T-Mobile when he switched sides was like, people were like,

ah, you know, he knew what he was doing. Like it is like, give the people what they want. They want to see you hit switch. Right. And then everyone in the box box was like, oh, thank God.

Yeah. You can't see the hitters sometimes get in a rhythm, right? Yes. Like they're hitting a bunch of grounders or liners and then suddenly they lock in. Yes. So the idea that there's no, I don't know, hot hand when it comes to the home run derby, at least. I think it seems like there is, right? You just kind of get the stroke and then you keep it for a while. But I guess if you're switch hitting, I don't know how much he practiced doing it from both sides.

I guess he's always hitting from both sides. But if you got locked in from one side and then you had to turn around, maybe the mojo wouldn't carry over and maybe that wouldn't be worth the fact that you are fresh from that side. It's a high stakes move. It is. Yeah. But also a really entertaining one. And as you said, that is the point. So yeah, 341 homers hit. The previous record was 312, which was in 2019, which was the peak juiced ball year, at least in MLB. Maybe they're still using the 2019 balls. Just break some of those out for the home run derby these days. Especially in T-Mobile, where it's like, you know, it's a hard, it's obviously goes better for right-handed hitters. But like, it's not the easiest park to hit in baseball or anything

like that. Yeah. And obviously there's an extreme error effect when it comes to the homerun derby. And you look at some of the earlier ones where a handful of homers were hit. It's like, what was the point of having a homerun derby when five homers were hit? But now, I don't know, is it too many homers? I think the only way it's too many is that it can be kind of confusing on the broadcast where I've been to one home run derby in person, and I do find that it's better in person just because you get to appreciate the whole arc of the homer and the majesty of it, and you get to track things more easily than you can. of it and you get to track things more easily than you can. I had like a split screen for a while of the ESPN and ESPN2 broadcast, the StatCast broadcast on ESPN2. Each of those broadcasts

was a split screen. So I had a split screen of split screens, but I find them both kind of confusing in different ways. The StatCast broadcast, obviously I appreciate the commentary and our pal Mike Petriello and all the data that they bring to the exercise. I'm not so into home run derby predictions and analysis. I don't necessarily need that with my derby. I just kind of want to watch some big guys. Some dingers.

Yeah, basically. But it's a little busy. There are a lot of graphics and displays, and it looks like CNET or something, you know. And I want more screen real estate. And also, I think we talked at some time about how I was advocating for having exit velocity numbers, like live in games,

like on regular baseball broadcasts that usually you see the pitch speed when the pitch goes in there. And maybe you see the little dot on the strike zone display. And I was saying, I would like to see exit speed on batted balls because sometimes there are moments where you see a ball off the bat and you can't tell what's going to happen and where it's going to go. And I thought it would add some information if we could get to see the readouts like in that moment. And I think that is

true. However, having seen that in action on the StackAss broadcast, they had that. They had the exit speed and the launch angle on every swing. And I found that it actually reduced the suspense of the exercise. Like I could tell with great accuracy just based on the combination of exit speed and launch angle whether it was going to be a home run, right? Because, you know, there's sort of a sweet spot for those things. And there are balls on the margin that may or may not go out. But you see some combinations of exit speed and launch angle, at least if you're used to looking at exit speeds and launch angles. And you know, oh, okay, that's almost certainly going to be a home run. And it was like, I didn't need to see where the ball went or anything, because it was like a spoiler almost, which I guess is what I was saying. That was why I was advocating for it originally. It's like,

hey, I could get some information from this. I could glean something from this that I can't always tell off the bat. But now having seen that in action, at least in the Derby, I feel like maybe that suspense is actually a good thing. Maybe I want to preserve that non-knowledge of what's going to happen as we switch from the center field camera to then seeing where the ball is going to go and where the fielders are and everything. That momentary uncertainty of is that going to go? Where's that going to end up? I think that might actually enhance my enjoyment of the broadcast. I got to say, having seen it, I got what I wanted and be careful what you wish for, I guess.

Now you're a less is more guy. I think so, yeah. Yeah, I think that maintaining a little bit of the mystery there is nice. And I'm just generally an advocate for obstructing as little of the broadcast view as possible. Yeah. So, you know, I think that that's right. Right. And it's hard.

Like on that, they had an angle kind of from behind home plate and off to the side. So you could see the swing and the initial trajectory. But you couldn't necessarily tell where the ball was going to end up. I do kind of prefer just the standard center field view just because that's what I'm used to in games. And so I can get the best read of where the ball is going to go just based on my experience of having seen so many swings from that vantage point on TV. But then on the regular ESPN broadcast, they didn't have all the bells and whistles, which in a way was almost a relief to me, surprisingly. But then I still find it kind of tough to scan as a spectator because one reason why there are so many homers now, it's all about the format and the balls, but it's also about the fact that they don't really seem to enforce the old rule that

one ball had to land before the pitcher goes into their motion, right? And maybe that's a good thing because, again, you get more dingers. You got to era adjust these inflated home run totals here, but you get more homers. However, it does make it very tough to track at home when you're watching. It's like, wait, which ball is that? Which swing correlates to that ball? And which one is that? swing correlates to that ball and which one is that and where's that is that gonna go like there's no time you can't follow every ball for its full arc and and see oh yep it just stuck over the fence or wow it ended up way up there because there's already another pitch on the way or another ball in motion like the hang time you, can be several seconds. So there's already going to be more action going on. And it's just so frenetic that from home, I can't really follow it that well. And also the StatCast broadcast, instead of showing you the full trajectory of the ball,

it would show you like the StatCast projection of where the ball was going to go, which I'm sure is pretty darn accurate, but also was just a little less satisfying to me to see a line arcing instead of seeing the actual ball sail out. So for all those reasons, I don't know if this is a critique of the broadcast or just saying it's inherently hard to do this well with this current format, which is good on the whole, but does make it tough from a spectator perspective. And that's why I envy you getting to be there, because I think you can take in the whole sweep of the stadium and follow these things more easily when you can control where you're looking. Where you're looking, yeah. Yeah, I think that that was one of the very cool things about where the auxiliary press box was, you know, we're out in right field. And because, you know, most of the

field was hitting from the right side, like you just had a perfect view of the arc and trajectory of the ball. And so you could tell so easily, like, yeah, that one's out, that one's not. And, you know, you do lose sight even then of some of them because you're right, they're absolutely not enforcing the rule of like it has to land. They're just going, going, going. So they're launching so many of them that you don't get to see absolutely everything. But it is, I think, the optimal place for that, particularly if you're going to end up with a field that is so heavily leaning to one side of, of the batter's box in terms of handedness. So yeah, it was, it was very cool. And then of course, like, I mean, he didn't win and it wasn't,

Julio's performance reminded me a little bit. This is such a strange comp of, you know, the, the, the John Mulaney bit about going too big, too fast on a sign where it was like, yeah, when you're, when you're breaking a record in terms of, um, home runs in a single round, you're probably going to be too wiped to advance later on. But boy, boy, Ben, that, that man's the King of Seattle. Uh, like that ballpark responding to Julio he knew exactly like when to get him stoked and you know of course

after they're talking to him on the broadcast and he's talking about how the fans are so great it was very cool to see I was like yeah pretty neat that that guy's just like a forever Mariner. Um, cause talk about getting in a rhythm, like, man, if there is, if there is technique, uh, to the Derby, he he's up there, he's up there with, you know, Alonzo and, and other guys who

have kind of gotten a dialed in and, you know know, one of these years, he might actually win it. But for a guy who hasn't won two years in a row, he has to be one of the more memorable derby participants. It's pretty cool. Yeah, and it's always fun to see the intergenerational interactions. Yes. Julio with derby legend Ken Griffey Jr., of course.

And also players with their kids and their families. Even better if those kids then grow up to win the Home Run Derby someday, like Vlad Bruggera Jr., following in the footsteps of his father. So it was fun on the broadcast to see images of little Vlad attending his father's Home Run Derby heroics. But yeah, it does seem like often the really indelible performances from the Home Run Derby are not by the winner because it's guys who exhaust themselves like Julio hitting 41 in a round. And then maybe they burn out a little bit, but you still remember that show they put on. And maybe in future years, there's going to be like a Mandela effect of like, well, I thought Julio won that one, right?

Much like there was with Vlad when he put on that show in 2019 and didn't actually win. And this time, I guess he had a more measured pace. I don't know whether it's because he's a derby veteran now and he knows that it's better to pace himself or whether it just worked out that way. But this was more not slow and steady, but, you know, medium and steady wins the race, right? Because he still had a little left in the tank at the end. And I did think that Rosarino was going to catch him because he had to hit four in that

final 30 seconds, right? And he hit two early and then sort of lost it at the very end there. But there was suspense at the last moment. So it was a fun derby. It's usually a fun derby these days. Yeah, I think that they really have it figured out. You know, we are quick to say when they don't, but like they know exactly what that event is

and they know what like the guiding principle of it should be, which is let's make this just like a fun, cool time. And, you know, I think it's easier to get that sorted and to lean into it when it's something, when it's like a single track event, like the Derby as opposed to the All-Star game, which, you know, even after all these years, I think is still like trying to find itself in a way, you know, to be like a big memorable thing. But the Derby, they know what they're doing. And I think there's a lot to be said for having a hometown guy in it because it does add a charge that, you know, I think is pretty special. And can I actually, I want to give a nod to what might be my fourth or fifth favorite derby performance from last night because, you know, Adley hitting switch was so cool and Julio doing Julio stuff was so cool

and like the surgical precision of Luis Robert Jr. just like going up there and going bang, bang, bang, you know, and Randy doing Randy stuff. I'm still disappointed he didn't put boots on. They should have given him a separate time break in the final round so that he had time to be like, no, no, now I must put on the boots. They should have given special dispensation for that. But can we talk about Mookie just being like,

I'm not winning. I'm just going to take batting practice. I'm not using my time. I'm going to do this because my wife said I should, and I'm not going to win. And that's fine. I'm going to do this because my wife said I should and I'm not going to win. And that's fine. You know, it's I'm here. I am participating. But I don't need to make this longer than it has to be. I was just like this. This man has my respect.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I wish Zach Cram was telling me that as someone who is not vertically blessed himself, I suppose, that he always pulls for the smaller guys in the home run derby. And that he's disappointed that there haven't been more home run derby short kings that they have often come up short, sadly. Because it would be fun to see someone like Mookie just go off, right? Because it's one of the things we like about baseball is that all kinds of body types can excel in different ways. And a lot of players like Mookie have found a way to harness their power, even if their raw power isn't quite as prodigious as some bigger guys. So it would be nice to see someone like him just catch fire in the derby. But it didn't happen and he accepted it. And that was guys. So it would be nice to see someone like him just catch fire in the derby,

but it didn't happen and he accepted it. And that was fun. So yes, I appreciated his approach, his philosophy toward the derby as well. Yeah, I thought, I was like, you know, this is a man who knows himself and is, you know, because you're like, you're Mookie Betts.

You've won an MVP. You've won a World Series. You are, I think it's safe to say, on your way to Cooperstown one day. You don't have to win everything. It's fine. You know, you can just do a little BP. He hit some home runs, you know, and then make way for the participants who everyone kind of expected to actually have a chance. It was good. It was good.

Pete Alonzo looked so sad. I didn't get to see his face until I saw some, like, clips of the derby later, and I was just like, oh, poor Pete. Cause I'm sure, you know, that, that he does not strike me as a guy who's like, I've already won this twice. I can be at peace. He takes it so seriously. I worry about him when he doesn't do well. I know. I was like, oh no, Pete, you're going to be sad today. Yeah. It's like, it's not like the Met season is going so great either. And it's like the, the calendar for Alonzo, it seems to really revolve around the home run derby great either. And it's like the calendar for Alonzo,

it seems to really revolve around the Home Run Derby. I mean, it's like if that doesn't go well, it's like, you know, if Joey Chestnut choked on a hot dog or something, it's like you've been planning your whole year for this and it didn't go the way you wanted. It did for Joey Chestnut, but not for Alonzo. But I'm sure he'll be back. It's not his last derby and his last crack at this thing.

So I look forward to your review of the rest of All-Star Week next time. And we can talk about the All-Star game then. And we can get your report on the proceedings at the BBWA meeting. And who knows? Maybe there will be some fun Rob Manfred quotes to talk about because whenever Rob Manfred speaks, you know, he always just really is It just always comes out the way that you would want it to come out. Just nothing unanticipated. So maybe there will be nothing to talk about. But who knows?

Maybe he'll surprise us. Especially, you know, coming a couple of days after getting, you know, booed for several hours by fans and then having to, you know, bob and weave a little bit with respect to like, you know, how the fans interacted with the Astros draft picks being announced. Ben, I had forgotten to mention this, like hat tip to the fans at Lumen, many of whom were Mariners fans. I don't know what they expected. Like, of course the Astros are going to get booed. You're in the hometown of a division rival,

and people have long memories. So, you know, they're booing the announcement of these Houston picks. And Manfred did seem kind of flustered by the intensity of the boos. And then he announces that Raul Banez is going to announce the second round and instantly there is a flip to you. And I was just like, you know, you got it. You got it dialed. Everybody, they kept booing Manfred every time he came to the podium, but people had their timing down right. It was like they wanted to make it clear. We are booing the commissioner. We are not booing these young men on their big day.

And they would, as soon as he made the announcement of the pick, would, you know, pivot and cheer for them. So I was like, you know, well done. You guys got your, you know, it's like a beautifully stage-managed play. Everybody's hitting their marks. If you're going to do it, that's the way to do it, you know, it's like a beautifully stage managed play. Everybody's hitting their marks. It was, if you're going to do it, that's the way to do it. You know, we're not boo people. We talked about that, but if you're going to do it, be discerning, you know, it's like how everyone wishes that there were different horns in a car so that you have the like,

hey, you're going to hit me and hey, you got to go at the light and, you know, hey, I like your sign on the side of the road. You know, we need different buttons. That's a car reference. I got it, yes. Yeah, hard for you sometimes. I've heard the horns. But yeah, that's a time-honored draft tradition, of course, booing the commissioners, not just in baseball, not just Manfred.

But this was a particularly just this performance was there was a lot of pep and, as you said, a lot of coordination behind this one. So, all right. And I guess the only slight disappointment of the events so far is that Elie de la Cruz has not been involved in any of them. He was, of course, invited to participate in the Home Run Derby, which would have been fun. And he said, you know,

I'm focusing on being a Cincinnati Red in my rookie season, which is fine. But, of course, over the weekend, we did not get a chance to discuss his latest highlight, his latest way of breaking baseball, which was his stealing. Now, there have been a number of pedantic debates that I have seen and appreciated about what exactly happened here, because I've seen it described that he stole all the bases, right? Which technically is incorrect. He did not steal first base, right? And I guess we've had the discussion about whether home plate is in fact a base again, and we probably don't need to revisit that one. but also descriptions of what he did exactly, because some people described it as

stealing three bases in two pitches and other people pointed out, no, it was actually three pitches, right? He stole the bases in a span of three pitches. There was a pitch in the middle where he did not steal any bases, but he also stole the three on two pitches, right? There were two pitches that transpired, and he stole the three bases on those two pitches, which is more impressive, the fact that he advanced multiple bases when only one pitch had been thrown. That is part of what made the feat so special. And of course, he took advantage of a pitcher, Piguero, who was not paying close attention. And he reminded them that, hey, I'm Eli De La Cruz and you got to pay attention to me at all times, right?

And it was impressive, however you describe it. And maybe the best way to describe it is just that he stole all the bases you can steal while one batter was at the plate, which I think is special. And it was described by some people as the first time since Rod Carew had done that in 1969. But I saw a clarification from the Twitter account OptiStats that actually that was not the same thing, that in that Kroo case, he stole the last couple of bases with Leo Cardenas batting, and the steal of second came with Kilbrew, Harmon Kilbrew, at the plate. So it was not quite the same.

And to go back to what exactly happened here, all of the bases being stolen while one batter was at the plate, apparently you have to go back to 1915 when Red Faber did it, who was a pitcher for the White Sox, and he was just allowed to do it by the A's as a stall tactic because there was a storm brewing and the game wasn't official yet. So I don't know if it was unprecedented or it hadn't happened in a century. This exact thing just had not gone down in a very long time. And it was really cool. I mean, he's just, he's the it guy of MLB right now. Like, I don't know if he's the best prospects or the best rookie this season. I don't even know if he's the best on his own team. There's some stiff competition there and you've got Corbin Carroll doing his thing and

being super fast as well. But there's just some quality of Ellie that is extremely magnetic, right? And it's not just that he has the raw tools, which he does. You go to the baseball savant page and you see 98th percentile in max exit velocity, 100th percentile in sprint speed, and 98th percentile in arm strength. It's like, that's the trio right there. That's the trifecta. If he were an outfielder, he'd be throwing even harder, probably. I mean, it's just ridiculous tools, but then also instincts and flair.

And that's what he brings, that maybe there's no percentile slider for that on baseball sabat but if there were he'd be maxing that out too yeah and like clearly just the way that those tools all interact with one another the way that he is combining you know instinct with like a heady baseball acumen. Like it's just a really fun combination of things and taken in concert with him being 20 feet tall. It's just like, you know, he is, he is striking, you know, he is striking both in the way that he is playing and just in his physical presence. And so I, I also think it's super fun to have, you know, you have the contrast of like Ellie being as big as he is with his speed.

And then you have like Corbin being, you know, a little speed guy. It's just, I don't know. I feel like we're in a really fun window of these guys and their play, both individually and then when taken in concert. Like, this isn't, you know, there have been really great rookie seasons. It's not like we had great rookie seasons last year. Like, every year you have guys emerge and sort of be what we anticipated they would be when they were highly ranked as prospects. But I do think that just in terms of like the aesthetic quality, it's a very cool year for that.

Because they're just, you know, they're just a bunch of big and small fast guys who also are all these other things. I don't know. It's just really cool. And the fact that his arrival has coincided with the Reds winning as many games as they have over that span, which obviously you can attribute entirely to Ellie, and yet it's easy to talk yourself into it being entirely Ellie. It's like, oh, it's just a different vibe, a different attitude. And you can look at his stats and you could think, oh, he's flying a little close to the sun right now, right? Like he's struck out a lot.

He strikes out a lot more than he walks. And he's got a 440 BABIP. And his expected weighted on base is 78 points lower than his weighted on base. Like, is there going to be some correction coming? Or is he just so talented that he will improve the expected stats as time goes on? I don't know. Like you watch him and it's hard even to say like this is unsustainable and be a wet blanket about it because he's just so much fun that you're like if anyone could just kind of defy gravity, then it would be L.A. de la Cruz, who seems to defy physics.

He's just so speedy. Well, right. And has to defy gravity every day just so, you know, walking around. Yes. Got to do it walking around. Exactly. And the only other bit of news I wanted to mention, yeah, there was a combined no-hitter by the Tigers over the weekend. Congrats to them. But also, the Yankees made a coaching change, which normally would not be big news. Teams are often making in-season coaching changes, but not the Yankees under Brian Cashman. They have literally never done it, I believe, since he took over as GM

officially in 98. I don't think he's ever made a mid-season coaching change, which as a matter of principle, I kind of respect, I admire. It's like, hey, not going to make a knee-jerk move here. We evaluated this person as the best. I guess it could speak to being too passive and too patient, or it could speak to an admirable patience, or it could be sort of a reaction to, hey, we need some time to evaluate this and we'll think about it in the off season when we have time to consider these things without responding to the heat of the moment. And so the fact that they made a change here and they fired their hitting coach, Dylan Lawson, who came highly acclaimed and was seen as sort of a new-aged guy and very into all the new ways of analysis and everything. And things have not gone so great for the Yankees' offense, certainly over the last season and a half, right? they are just no-shows when Aaron Judge is not in the lineup basically they've been one of the

worst hitting teams since he got hurt it's just a bleak looking offense you just have these old guys like Josh Donaldson who hits a home run every now and then but nothing else it's just like a sub 100 babbip just such a strange season. And then you have Giancarlo Stanton, who's been barely better than replacement level over the past year and just doesn't look like he's that playable in the field anymore and isn't that durable and, as a DH, isn't doing the hitting part so much anymore either. And guys like Rizzo, it's just, you know, LeMayhew,

just aging hitters who appear to be past it. And then some young guys who haven't really delivered the way that I think the Yankees were hoping they would. So you look at this collection of hitters and it's like, is that Dylan Lawson's fault? Who knows? And the Yankees are not prone to just making, you know, sacrificial lamb type moves with coaches and having scapegoats. And so the fact that they did hear that Cashman made this exception and that he was the one messaging this, I don't know what that means. toss a coach to the wolves to preserve himself, which he's never really had to do because his job security has been unprecedented for almost any GM really or executive in history, or whether there was something that just really wasn't clicking in this case or what. But I don't know. They hired Sean Casey, who's been on MLB Network, and it's just kind of like

an outside perspective, and we'll bring him in for the rest of the season and see how that goes. They didn't even have that hiring in place when they fired Lawson. So I look at that offense and it just, it feels like the success of the Yankees offense is really riding on whether Aaron Judge is a part of it more so than who's the hitting coach, which does not mean that a dismissal wasn't warranted. It's just like this group of guys, boy, I don't know. I don't know if anyone could make much of them. It's hard to know from the outside, right? Like it's just an odd thing to have to parse as someone who's not, you know, in the room with these guys every day. I think the part of it that I find the most striking is like there really isn't an internal candidate you want to elevate to that role.

If you're doing a let's try it and see, like even just on an interim basis. I mean, I'm sure that, you know, that's easy for me to say because I'm not worried about then disrupting like the goings on, say, in the minors. Like if there's someone in your player dev your broader player dev umbrella who you're like well that that person is like a a future you know big

league coach let's bring them up for a couple of months like maybe you don't want to must things at the lower levels but it is striking to be like, here's someone with no coaching experience. Right. Yeah. Good luck. You know, it just, it feels, if you're going to make that move in season, it feels incongruous then to elevate or to hire someone rather who isn't, you know, an obvious like upgrade. And again, we don't know all the goings on behind the scenes. It could be that there was just discord that they couldn't sort out or what have you, but it is odd to then be like, you know, it would be one thing if they were like, here is, we think the brightest hitting mind. We're bringing that bright hitting mind in to turn everyone into Aaron Judge. It's like, I don't know, you know,

I don't say that to try to knock him, but it's like, what is the value proposition here exactly? to be actually a boon to teams in the postseason, not a detriment. But maybe this is just sort of a sop to them. It's like, okay, you don't want the new age guys. We'll go get Sean Casey. He's not a new age guy. He's a former teammate of the manager. Let's see how we do under him. Maybe it's just, you know,

you hire your players manager and then replace him with a disciplinarian or something. It's like maybe the midseason move for the hitting coach doesn't matter all that much, but we could do a vibe shift. We could just go with more of an old school guy and a less analytical guy and just see if anyone responds to that or at least say that we tried it. I don't know. But Lawson had a quote that he gave to The Athletic a couple months ago that had been bandied about that doesn't sound great, certainly out of context, right? Like it was about how the Yankees lineup wasn't hitting at that point. That was even before Judge got hurt. and said, we care about winning games. I'm going to do a swear here because he did a swear. I really don't give a shit where we rank in offensive stats as long as we're scoring enough runs to win games.

We played the number one team, Tampa, and went toe-to-toe with them. Some could argue that we could have gotten swept. Other people could say we should have swept them. You know which side I stand on. I'm not concerned. We have to do enough to win games. Where we rank is of no concern of mine, whether it's one or 30, as long as we win the game, which, OK, we know what he's saying there. He's trying to do a Derek Jeter thing about how all that matters is whether you win.

Right. But also, it doesn't sound so great with the hitting coaches like I don't care how we hit. It's like, I don't care how we hit. It's like, as long as we win, which, sure, of course, if there were a way to consistently win without scoring, then that would be great. Then you'd take it. You know, if you just shut the other team out every time, you only need to score one run a game. And that would be great if that were a repeatable formula. But also, when the hitting coach says, I don't give a shit where we rank in offensive stats. If you want to win games, it is better to rank highly in the offensive stats to score some runs because it's tough to consistently win games without scoring runs. So I know what he was trying to do there, but it doesn't sound so great when your hitting coach is like, I don't care how we hit, you know, even if that wasn't exactly what he was trying to say. So that sort of haunted him on Yankee's Twitter, at least.

Yeah, it just goes to show, like, never say anything out loud in view of other people because, you know, such long memories. Yeah, tough not to say anything out loud on a podcast, though, when that's the whole job. So we will hope for the indulgence of our audience. And you've got to go to a meeting. So I guess I will do the future blast early here. This comes from 2031 and also from Rick Wilber, who is an award-winning writer, editor, and college professor who has been described as the dean of science fiction baseball. And Rick writes, the top story of 2031 was the 4-12 batting average for Louisa Rice, one of the great hitters in the game, often compared to Rod Carew for his contact and Ted Williams for his power.

Ted Williams for his power? Rice Williams for his power? Arise? Wait, are we talking about the same guy here? Is there suddenly, I don't know if this is altered at future timeline, where Arise tapped into Ted Williams-esque power and also is still hitting for average? Wow, things have changed. Arise had flirted with 400 several times before, starting with an impressive 378 in 2023, while still with the Marlins, when the Cardinals acquired him in 2025. Arias responded with that outstanding.392 average and then continued his remarkable hitting in subsequent seasons. Only once in his career

has his average been below.300,.294 with the Twins in 2021, and four times in the five seasons before 2031, he'd approached the 400 mark, finally reaching it with room to spare in 2031. His hitting, the Cardinals' stout pitching, wow, things have really changed, and the base running of designated runner Estiari Ruiz, who finished with 127 steals, led the Cardinals to the World Series, their 21st appearance in the Classic, where they dominated the Red Sox to win the series four games to one. their 21st appearance in the Classic, where they dominated the Red Sox to win the series four games to one.

Arise, the World Series and National League MVP, hit.440 in the short series while Ruiz stole 11 bases and scored incredibly in nine of the 11 times that he stole second. 2031 was also the first year that artificial intelligence began to take command of the dugouts of the Atlantic League, taking over the managerial role for half the teams while the other half left their managers in charge. At season's end, the AI skip managers beat the meat managers, as they came to be called,

74% of the time in head-to-head games. And two AI skip teams, the Lancaster Bombers and the High Point Rockers finished at the top of the North and South divisions, respectively, and went to the ALPB Championship, won by the Lancaster team in the deciding game of the five-game series. Needless to say, the future looked artificially intelligent

as the Atlantic League announced it would adopt the system league-wide for the 2031 season. Meat manager is a turn of phrase that's going to just, Ben, it's going to stay with me. I'm not mad about it. I am delighted by the phrase meat manager, you know, meat manager, meat manager, Ben, meat manager. We have gotten questions about that even before the recent AI sensation just about like, could you manage by algorithm?

Not the off the field parts, the chemistry parts, the leadership parts of managing, but just the X's and O's in baseball, which, you know, managers maybe are more passive about those things than they used to be. They're not constantly calling for hit and run plays or pitch outs, sack bunts, right? Intentional walks, things that on the whole tended to be counterproductive. So if they're pulling fewer levers now, then I guess the time is ripe for AI skip to come in and say, well, here's when to make your pitching change and here's when to send up a pitch hitter, you probably could automate that. Again, it's one of the many cases where I wonder you could, but did we stop to ask whether we should?

And also, is there any point? Does that make the game more entertaining in some way if there's just an AI managing instead of the meat manager? Probably not, right? The AI skip doesn't get to go out there and argue either, presumably. So maybe they could do as capable a job of it as anyone, but I don't know that it would be better from an entertainment standpoint. Meat manager. Meat manager. Yeah. I guess it really depends if you can feed the AI skip with in-game data on, say, the pitches and is the pitcher tiring and that kind of thing. You could program it with the projections for particular batter-pitcher matchups, but maybe it would have

to be offline during the game to be in accord with the current rules about communication with the dugout and everything, or maybe that would change to make way for AI skip. Well, maybe future installments of the Future Blast will answer some of these questions. Anyway, good luck with Mr. Manfred. Thank you. And I will be right back with Eric Langenhagen, also of Fangraphs, to discuss the amateur draft. Effectively wild, effectively styled. Distilled over chilled beets.

Effectively mild. Follow the plot. Samson in his garage. Ben with the reverb at 20 in his Minaj. And after 2,000 episodes, we got more inside jokes than Carrot Top's prop box before he got yoked. episodes. We got more inside jokes than Carrot Top's prop box before we got yoked. All right, I'm back and I am joined now by Eric Longenhagen, lead prospect analyst for Fangraphs, who has all but completed another year of amateur draft coverage. Hello, Eric. Welcome back for the annual post-draft breakdown. Hey, Ben, how's it going? Going well. So this was a strong field, right?

That is the sense I get from reading previews and reviews. This was just a good crop of prospects. And I don't know whether that is just it's cyclical and some years are better than others, or whether this was still the effect of the pandemic and the fact that high school seniors in 2020 may have decided to go back to school and now they're draft eligible again. And so you kind of got almost multiple potential classes coming together here. Was that part of why this was a strong field? And was this one of the strongest or the strongest that you've covered top to bottom? Yeah, I think there are probably, there are so many variables that have changed over the last couple of years. And one of them, I do think is that COVID draft, which was just much shorter and very volatile.

And there was a certain, you know, slice of high school player from that year's class who ended up going to school. And then three years later, we have this group and the high school class from this year was uncommonly strong as well, which there's only so much money that can go around in any given draft. And so three years from now, the guys who didn't sign this year are going to be part of a college crop

that might be uncommonly strong. Certainly, you know, it's more likely that that will be true given that this year's high school group was particularly strong. But obviously there's a lot of time between, between now and then, but yeah, like this was a very exciting group. It really, the high school class last summer, watching that group at, you know, areaodes and on the Showcase Circuit generally, you could tell that it was a high-end group. And then starting to see next year's crop of high schoolers, which I got going this weekend. There's a Team USA baseball and MLB high school All-American game that takes place the Friday leading into the All-Star weekend. And it's not as good.

So like next year's just like watching 50 kids take BP and infield. It was just like, oh, like this is not this is not as good as last year. And it is just so variable. You go back to like the Mickey Moniac draft. And there's not really among the guys who went like in the top 10 of that class there's just like no one who you're like oh yeah that guy in retrospect is the clear best guy he goes first in most drafts if you know he's going to be that guy like there's not anyone like that and that's just like what the case is some years but this year was was a much much better group

where we had you know a handful of guys at the top of the draft who in a normal year would have an argument to go 1-1. There were like three, four, maybe five of those guys this year. Yeah, so those five guys, it seems like there was a consensus about the top five and they actually became the top five,

at least in some order, right? So whether it was Paul Skeens who went to the Pirates 1-1, his teammate at LSU, Dylan Cruz, went to the Nationals. Then Max Clark to the Tigers. Then Wyatt Lankford to the Rangers. And then Walker Jenkins to the Twins. Those were all kind of the top five on mock drafts in some order.

So I guess it was a good day for mocks, at least early there. No one tried anything super creative or unanticipated, right? There were no shenanigans, no sort of, let's do some cost savings early on and try to use that money later in the draft. The top talents got picked with the top picks, which was, I guess, semi-unusual. But is that just a testament to the fact that those were so clearly the five best talents in the draft? Yeah, it's funny because I think a lot of us probably got slayed in that top five, like in the mocks themselves. Like if it's totally binary, you had the pick or you didn't. the fact that the general consensus that especially, you know, Jim Callis and Kylie and like Carlos Collazo, when you're doing a mock a couple months out and you know, this is going to

sound more derisive than it actually is. But like at that point, like it is just clickbait, like so much can change between now and then. But when you know at that stage that the top five or six guys are these names, and it turns out to be right, that's good. That's a good process. You are cultivating correct information. Even if you didn't have Skeens one, that's still a good process. Really, the first heavy cut in the draft was at six with Jacob Wilson going to the A's, the shortstop from Grand Canyon, who maybe has the best bat to ball skills in the whole draft, but he's not very physical at all. Like when tier two of players begins, which it clearly did at pick six, that is the most logical place to try to cut with a guy because you don't have access to that top tier of

players so you know why not try to take savings because now you're starting you know here we are at the next level of dude it made you know logical sense for the a's to do that there you can quibble with the player that they did it with i think because like jacob wilson as much as i like him like is so frail that he just like, doesn't look like a big leaguer, but I had him, you know, like close to 10 overall. So it's perfectly fine in my opinion. Uh, but yeah, like if there was a surprise at the very top where we weren't sure how things were going to land, it's that Max Clark went third to Detroit and not Wyatt Lankford. There was some, you know, working on mock stuff, mostly like heavily this week,

leading into the draft itself, like literally sitting at the, you know, in the media area at the draft with Meg and like going through the names, still working the phones, trying to, you know, get any last minute information that we could. There was weird disagreement about whether Clark, the high school outfielder from Indiana or Langford, the left fielder, maybe center fielder from Florida, who might be the

choice at three if he's still on the board. Now, like I ended up mocking Langford one, so it didn't matter who I stuck there on the mock. Like it was just going to be wrong. Um, Texas was always viewed as, as Langford's floor, like late enough in the process, it was clear that if he was there, that he would be their guy and they ended up getting him. So, uh, it was, yeah, it was pretty chalky draft overall in terms of, uh, who went where it wasn't really until some of the stuff on day two got going that there was like, oh, this is, you know, an interesting surprise here or So only five of the first 32 players were pitchers. One was a high school pitcher, if we don't count Bryce Eldridge, the two-way player whom I'm sure we will talk about soon. But the 1-1 was a pitcher.

Paul Skeens, the first pitcher to go 1-1 since Casey Mize, what, five years ago at this point, right? So what was it about Skeens that flew in the face of the headwinds against ranking individual pitchers or selecting individual pitchers highly just because of the injury risk and because of the way that the role of the starting pitcher and the workload of pitchers in general has changed? Still, Skeens was the one that the Pirates wanted there. Right, yeah. And we'll wait to see what type of bonus he ultimately agrees to and how that sort of looks compared to what Cruz gets at two and Langford at four. I think those are the three

where you want to see at the end of the day how much money each of them gets. Because I do think that that group at the top was clustered enough that even though I have Dylan Cruz like at one in a tier on his own, it's close enough that you could justify trying to cut with one of those three guys and get another good prospect later because of what you're saving in your bonus pool.

So with Skeens, you mentioning Casey Mize is exactly the type of reason why it's risky to take a pitcher, period. They just tend to get hurt what they do, especially when you're throwing upper 90s fastballs for seven innings at a time. It's not great for your shoulder. It's not great for your elbow. And so with Skeens, he is just so – he's just a for your shoulder. It's not great for your elbow. And so with Skeens, you know, he is just so, he's just a physical outlier.

Casey Mize is not, right? Even like Steven Strasberg is, he is not like built like Skeens where Skeens is like 6'6", 240. But Strasberg and like Cole, like they are outliers. And I think Skeens is in a tier of his own in terms of like his physicality that I think you could say,

like, I feel safer doing this than I would with someone like Casey Mize or, you know, AJ Pucker, the other types of pitchers who have tended to go very, very high in the draft, Jeff Hoffman, right?

Like these are all kind of like, ah, yeah, like I could see it. Chase, even like Chase these are all kind of like, ah, yeah, like I could see it chase, even like chase Dallander and Rhett louder. Like, yeah, like I get it. They're good. You know, there's 97 on my gun. Great. But skeins his, his build and just how powerful he is overall. It is sort of in a space on its own, uh think justifies it. And I know there are people who were picking up in that area who totally agreed with it, who thought it would have been criminal

to take anybody else but Skeens, even ahead of these other college hitters who dominated the SEC for a couple of years. And Cruz has been a dude since he was a high school sophomore and performed the whole time. He feels so safe. But yeah, I get it. From a fastball shape standpoint, Skeens is not optimal. It is in the Sandy Alcantara. All that velo's got to be there for this to be a dominant pitch. And if going 200-ish innings,

which you want from a dude who's built like this, like you want a guy who has this level of ability and physicality to like be a 200-inning horse. And to ask someone to do that and hold 96 plus for seven innings every time out. Like it's a tall task. So we will see how that goes. I would imagine we see Paul Skeens in the big leagues in 2024. And I think that that is not necessarily true of Dylan Cruz and Wyatt Langford and definitely not true of the high school outfielders who were at the top of the draft. And so if you're Pittsburgh and you feel like your team is starting to like

Brian Reynolds is just like in place now. And, you know, here comes Luis Ortiz and Rowancie Contreras and, you know, they're having hiccups in this and that, but like some of the next competitive pirates team you have to feel like is in place. And Paul Skeens is like plug and play in your rotation next year, there are some, I think, totally justifiable. Even though he had a somewhat heavier workload leading up to the draft, Gerald Schiffman did an analysis of that at Baseball Prospectus,

looked at the workloads, the pitch counts, the pitch smart violations of the various top draft prospects, and Skeens was up there just in the workload. We talked about that a little last time when you were on, but it wasn't so worrisome that anyone was going to stay away from him, I guess. Right. Yeah. I,

you know, I don't think so. Again, like we're just talking about like a different physical entity context for all this stuff is important. This is a different cat. But yeah, like there was buzz about a bunch of the guys at,

you know, having this or that thing, Rhett louder who ended up going seventh to Cincinnati, the pitcher from wake forest who had like that epic duel with Paul skeins in the post season, you know, there were elbow, there was elbow buzz, you know, on the phone leading up to the draft. And it's like, is this, you know, there were elbow, there was elbow buzz, you know, on the phone leading up

to the draft. And it's like, is this, you know, some weird thing designed to like, try to get him to fall? Why is it like, we're sitting there in the, in the media area before the draft and I'm like pulling up louder's last couple of pitches of that final game on synergy, like his last pitches, uh, his 87th pitch of, you know of a gem that he's throwing and he comes out after only 87 pitches and we're watching his body language. He went seventh. So the Reds feel fine about it. Most people felt fine about it. Most of these guys end up having something at some point anyway. You could be handled with care and still end up having something go wrong. And so, you know, like, it's just so variable.

But yeah, I don't think for Skeens it was much of a concern for anybody. You mentioned louder in your day one draft recap. You mentioned in the Reds blurb that this was kind of as close to a draft for need approach as any team took in day one with Lauder and then Ty Floyd and Samuel Stafura. Another shortstop seems like the last thing they need, I someone like the Reds, where everything's kind of coming together and all the prospects are arriving right now? Obviously, everyone always says draft for talent, don't draft for need, especially in baseball, where this is also unpredictable and the timelines can vary so much. But does it ever make sense for a team that's in a position like Cincinnati, which I guess is semi-similar to what you were saying about the Pirates and Skeens. Yeah, I kind of think it does. I think that if we look at recent history,

the team that comes to mind is that Cubs core with Schwarber and Baez and Addison Russell and Chris Bryant, where they just couldn't draft and develop enough pitching to support that core of position players. And what it meant was they only got one, right? And I think for other teams, there are situations where they don't end up getting any because they haven't been able to, I mean, just look at the Angels, right? Like the Angels tried kind of late to, to, to do a very extreme version of this, to try to run as much pitching up the ladder as they could. You still see it now, like Sam Bachman and Chase Silseth and Victor Medeiros and these guys,

like they're not quote unquote ready. They weren't really given the best opportunity to max out at the minor leagues. They were all kind of pushed. For each one of these guys, the realistic outcome is reliever in the Angels case, right? But they just had to try to rush this pitching to the big leagues, and they took Reed Detmers, and they took Griffin Canning,

and guys who are about as ready as you can be to try to get them there. And in the Reds case, you do have like Ellie's in place. McLean is in place. Spencer Steer is in there and people trying to execute a version of what the Braves have where you and the Braves have kind of done this too, where they're just like, you know, it's pitcher heavy drafts when you have the core of position players in place. And I think it makes a lot of sense because one of the reasons that, you know, we see so few pitchers taken high or ranked high on a draft list, we've talked about this on the pod before, is you need pitching depth. Like you need it in volume, you know, on your 40 man and in your farm system, because you're like getting trial after trial with development. Maybe these guys pop in a good way.

And, you know, you just need like depth, like pitching depth, they get hurt. And so, yeah, like it makes a ton of sense. I think if, if the Reds feel like their division is hanging in the balance, which it certainly feels like it is and will be for the foreseeable future. And they think like they have a chance to grab the brass ring, but it means like having more than Ben Lively and Luke Weaver and these guys like in your rotation because Nick Lodolo's hurt and because Hunter Green is hurt and like that's what happens, then it makes a ton of sense. And so like, wouldn't be surprised if Rhett Lowder's in the big leagues next year either, just by virtue of like how polished he is. And pitching is one of those things that you can really evaluate in a vacuum more so than hitting. And I think you can say with a greater degree of confidence that these guys are close to the big leagues than you can the hitters.

And so, yeah, like I think it's them and I think the Braves too. Like I thought it was a coup for the Braves to get Hurston Waldrop as late as they did. I have, you know, Waldrop's a top 100 prospect for me. He's got three plus pitches right now. And it wouldn't surprise me if he's also in the big leagues at some point soon. It wouldn't surprise me if he's also in the big leagues at some point soon. It wouldn't surprise me if that guy pitches in the post season for the Braves, if they shut him down for a while and then ramp him back up late in the summer, you know, after he's had a break and then deploy him in relief, like that seems perfectly reasonable. It isn't all that different from what a lot of teams do with their college pitching prospects.

Generally, more and more of them shut them down entirely after the draft, but typically, you shut down and then you get cranked up again for Instructs in the fall, just so that the org can get a look at you. And if there are developmental checkpoints they want you to hit, you have a new breaking ball grip, whatever it is. There you are at Instructs. It's a very controlled developmental environment. It's very safe for your health, this and that. You can roll an inning if you don't get three outs, whatever, nobody cares. It's glorified scrimmage.

It's purely for developmental purposes, but you can do that, a version of that, with a Garrett crochet or the like. In the postseason with a dude throwing 97 with a plus plus splitter and a good crochet or, you know, the like in the post season with the dude, throw a 97 with a plus plus splitter and a good curve ball. You know, that guy can air it out in an inning at a time and be your third, fourth or fifth best reliever in the whole org. Like absolutely Hurston Waldrop can do a thing like that. So yeah, I do think, um, uh, I think that the fact that there are fewer minor league roster spots and affiliates means teams are less likely to do the whole, like, let's take this two-sport athlete and give him six years to try to figure it out.

It's not really a luxury teams have quite as much anymore to send a guy to the Pioneer League after he was on the complex the year before and slowly barbecue his development. It's not really a thing anymore. slowly barbecue his development. It's not really a thing anymore. And so like drafting for need is a little closer to something you might actually do because you have fewer other options. This is straying a little bit from the draft, but what do you think of a decision like the Marlins doing what they're doing with Yuri Perez, which is sending him down to the minors where he will maybe pitch sporadically or maybe just sort of throw and at some point, presumably, come back to the major leagues if the playoffs are happening, if the Marlins are still in the running, even though they've been without him for a while. Meg and I talked about it a bit just because he had

been over his innings high for a season already, and it was clear that there was going to be some decision that would have to be made there. starts and don't have him go too deep into games, but to shut him down to some extent and then ramp him back up again, maybe that would be bad. I mean, he's a major leaguer, but he's also a year younger than Paul Skeens, right? So he's just, I don't know whether that track record of what teams do with college pitchers is instructive at all when it comes to what the Marlins should do with Perez, like putting salary issues aside and whether that is a motivation here just in terms of keeping him healthy or maximizing how many innings you can get out of him. I don't think anyone knows exactly, right? Like, I don't know. It's been a while since the Strasburg shut down. And I don't know that the thinking on this or the knowledge about this has

advanced all that much since then. So maybe everyone's just guessing about what the best way to handle this is. Right. I think that there is a fair amount of guesswork that's just going into it unless he is showing or communicating to the org signs of fatigue. Yeah. And it's possible that if that's happening, that we wouldn't know about it and we shouldn't know about it. And if the Marlins are acting rationally, like I would expect them to act rationally, then the service time stuff like has got to be a thing that they're talking about and caring about as, you know, as suboptimal as it is from like a worker's rights standpoint, as it is from like a workers rights standpoint,

like they're gonna think about it that way. And also to act rationally as the Marlins front office is to try to make the post-season so that you can keep being the Marlins front office. And so it's so difficult. Like if you would have asked me this question at the beginning of the year and said, hey, I can guarantee you that Uri is going to be ready to be like a capital D dude this year. And knowing that he's only thrown, you know, 75 or so innings each of the last couple of years

because he's had arm fatigue, like just generalized, not really an injury, just like signs of fatigue that they had to shut him down for. I would say that his season should start on a delay. That you should line it up so that he's only getting going at a point where he's up one time, goes through the end of the season, and then is done. So that you're not having to try to do this during the year. I think all the other icing on the cake scenarios,

like he wins rookie of the year and we get a draft pick. It felt good. If you're the Mariners and you have an extra first round pick, essentially, because Julio won rookie of the year, you want to give someone a chance to do that. Now, Corbin Carroll, if he just stays healthy, it doesn't really matter. The Diamondbacks are chance to do that. Now, Corbin Carroll's, you know, if he just stays healthy, it doesn't really matter. Like the Diamondbacks are going to get that pick.

But it is more likely that the guy who has a hot September is the one who like the narrative builds and oh, like he wins rookie of the year, you know, and you get, so there are all kinds of other reasons to consider maybe having done it that way. But if you do it that way, you're not like sitting in wildcard position right now. If you're the Marlins, like Yuri coming up and being good

as part of why they're competing. So I do not envy them for having to like navigate this situation, but I would say I would be inclined to like, let's just keep going. This is a, again, like, this is clearly a different dude. We don't have to take like a generic line with his development. Like maybe this guy's just the freak we think he is. And like, let's let him go out there and continue to be that way. And if there are any indications of fatigue, then we shut him down for a spell. But yeah, it's not an easy puzzle to solve, I don't think. So back to the draft, what does it mean for a program for LSU to have the number one and number two picks be from that school? It's the first time that's ever happened in the draft. And then also they had three other picks in the top 100,

Ty Floyd, Grant Taylor, Trey Morgan, plus they won the national championship. So that helps too. Just everything coming up LSU, like from a recruiting standpoint, is that just like they're made in the shade now? Cause everyone will want to go there basically. Yeah. I think LSU was already so attractive for young athletes because especially baseball players, because that environment is electric. Like Alex box stadium is as rock is a place to play college baseball as there is. And so, you know, it was already a big deal to go there. And then once the, the transfer portal rules changed such that college players were no longer punished for like seeking out a better environment to play or go to school or whatever their motivation was, like the idea that Kyler Murray transferred from A&M to Oklahoma and had to sit out a year

is like absurd. So you have that, like the transfer portal stuff changing and the NIL stuff, like LSU is leaning into that hard. And other schools, including other SEC schools, like Vanderbilt's not budging on that. Like Tim Corbin just isn't into it. Whereas LSU and their boosters and their athletic department is like, yeah, like sure, we can get Tommy White to transfer from North Carolina State and he'll get this amount of money and he's got a deal with Raisin Cane's as a sponsor. of college sports. And I think baseball, especially where like scholarships are few and far between in baseball relative to other sports, like the dynamics of the, of NIL and the way they interact

with baseball, I think it's so, so important. And then when you do what, you know, LSU just did in terms of like, here's Paul Skeens, he was at Air Force. And like, think about how powerful that is. Think about like all the discussions we've had about Noah Song and how powerful the military commitment stuff is and what that does to complicate your pro sports career. And this – LSU's poll was powerful enough to just rip Paul Skeens right out of the Air Force. the Air Force. So I will say, if we look at Kentucky basketball and John Calipari, and I guess this is pre-NIL and like, it's a new ball game for everyone involved. And like that program has pretty quickly fallen off the same way. I think that there's a chance of Vanderbilt, just sort of falls away the same way that like Lou Holtz, Notre Dame football was like the pinnacle. And then,

you know, Bob Davey comes in and like things kind of get work. Like these aren't necessarily, you know, they're not going to have like a grip on the top of the sport for ever. Like I've just been a sports fan long enough to know that these things change. Even though you think like,

yeah, like, yeah, like USC football, Reggie Bush and Matt liner, like this is going to be this way forever. Here comes Matt Barkley. Oh, he sucks. And you know,

Pete Carroll goes to see like these things happen. But right now, man, like, I don't know that all those kids are rock stars that go there. And I think people want a piece of that. And I think like the gymnast who's there making a ton of money, you know, on Instagram and with, you know, endorsement deals and stuff. Like,

I think that that school in particular is like a weird beacon for college athletes now. And it wouldn't surprise me if what we see happen there is like dynastic as far as the baseball is concerned for the next handful of years. And they've just pulled so many people from all over the place. Like when they hired Jay Johnson away from Arizona, I mean, I was pissed because like, I want a program this good to be an hour and a half from my front door. And I couldn't believe, you know, that to have the success you do at a power five program, like U of A, which is like a good U of A is a good baseball school. But to, you know, the pull of the SEC, man, like it's a really, really big deal across college sports in general.

And it's especially strong, I think, in baseball where they are so clearly a cut above the rest. So, you know, I'm always going to ask about the two way guys. Last time you were on, we talked about Jack Caglione, who will be eligible for next year's draft. But a couple first-round two-way guys this year, Blake Mitchell, who went to the Royals with the eighth overall pick. He's a catcher slash pitcher, high school guy, as is Bryce Eldridge, who went to the Giants, 16th overall, also a two-way guy. And then I guess there were some college guys lower in the draft, right? Nolan McLean, who went to the Mets from Oklahoma State. Trevor Werner, way later, seventh round Texas A&M guy, went to the Royals. Tucker Musgrove. Is there anyone I should get my hopes up? Forget about the Otani comps,

but just is there anyone who has a chance to stick and pursue a two-way career? Probably not. Bryce Eldridge just isn't a good enough pitching prospect to do it, I don't think. I think he wants to do both. The Giants have Reggie Crawford. Last year, they drafted out of UConn, who was coming off a TJ. And they have him doing it right now at San Jose, doing both, hitting once a week. Realistically, I think Nolan McClain is the one who has maybe the best chance to do some amount of it, but probably only in like the Micah Owings version of it where it's like he's a reliever and occasionally pinch hits. You know, like he's not going to play right field or third base in all probability. field or third base in all probability. There are just too many guys who are skilled in a way that Nolan McLean is skilled that only do end up doing one like JD Davis and, you know, Matt Chapman and, uh, Casey Schmidt, you know, all these dudes were good college relievers and were just good enough as hitters to just be that.

So there have been, you know, attempts Tanner Dotson with the Rays and the Dodgers. Tanner Dotson was plus runner, center fielder and a reliever. And, you know, just ultimately, like you just sort of end up kind of doing one, which is when you start really thinking about how impossible it is, it just makes it all the more incredible to think about, like, what Ohtani's doing. Even Jared Walsh, like, Jared Walsh did both for a while. Yep. while yep and i thought there was a chance that he would get to because what he did as a pitcher was so specific it's just like yeah i left you with a breaking ball come in get two lefties out see uh like and be jared walsh otherwise as a hitter like that seemed totally plausible but yeah like there's seems like there's only one one guy who can actually do it the fact that the angels

had otani they're the team with Otani that has reaped the rewards of that, and they had other potential two-way guys like Walsh and Mike Lorenzen, right? And... William Holmes, he tried to do it with for a little while, too. Yeah, Caleb Cowart, right? So, they had all these

guys, and you'd think if any team was going to do it, it'd be the one that has seen it work so well, and even with them, all those guys, you'd think if any team was going to do it it'd be the one that has seen it work so well and uh even with them all those guys you know it's just otani so yeah i mean everyone keeps saying like kids will come up and they will want to emulate otani and i'm sure that's true to some extent like just demonstrating that it is humanly possible to do it. And opening that door, there are going to be some, you know, everyone talks about the Dave Winfields and the John O'Rudes, right? And these people who potentially could have done it, but they were shunted in one direction or another. And maybe now teams will be a little less urgent about doing that. But even so, it's just, it's really, really difficult to do so.

Even so, it's just, it's really, really difficult to do so. But I'm going to keep asking every year and hope that one of these years you tell me that I should buy into one of these two-way prospects. I think at some point it'll happen, right? I do think that there are going to be knock-on effects of Otani's stardom. Yeah, it could take 15 or 20 years for that to show up, right? So, yeah. Yeah, no doubt. It's just like, you know, the alan iverson stuff has has you know

given us kyrie irving and you know steph curry has given us you know and for sure we haven't even seen the you know the impact of of that just yet but yeah like i think anyone who transcends at some point they are you know they're going to be the velvet underground and influence you know the pixies and whatever like it's you know, I'm sure that stuff will happen at some point. We'll get some, somebody else will come through who can actually do it. But Major League Baseball is just so hard. Right. Yeah, I guess it wouldn't have to take 15 or 20 years.

Like, some kid who's a big Otani fan now, right, and has the talent, maybe it's only 10 years. I'm always struck, like, Dylan Cruz, you know, he's talking about, like, he grew up watching Bryce Harper, you know, and it's like, oh, man, I'm old, I guess. But yeah, like, growing up, I mean, kids who get drafted are still kind of kids, and growing up watching someone to them means like five years ago or whatever, right? For sure. I have like a Cole Hamels jersey signed at the Lehigh Valley if there's anyone like that, and is influenced by watching Otani and thinking, wow, I can do this. Right. had he been three years younger and like totally the same athlete, are we more open to, and is he more pursuant of something like that? Where like a guy built like Ellie, you typically see him on the mound,

right? Like six, four with shoulders like that. Like you wouldn't be surprised to see a guy like that on the mound is, you know, AJ Burnett is built like that. And right. You know,

so an athlete as ridiculous as, as Ellie de la Cruz, for sure. You'd want to see what it looks like, right? If you were, if I told you this guy's striking out 33% of the time in the minors, you'd be like, well, I kind of want to see what it looks like on the mound then just in case. Yeah. Just when I thought Ellie de la Cruz could not be more compelling and fascinating. Now you're telling me maybe he could have been a pitcher. And so I'm curious, how do you feel about this, right? If you see a 17, 18, 19-year-old on the complex who's built like Eli is

and who has the bat speed that that guy does, even if I told you, hey, for the next couple of years, this guy's going to strike out 33% of the time throughout the minor leagues. And that's a red flag. Even Joey Gallo didn't do that. Even Louis Brinson and Monte Harrison and some of these other guys who were absolutely tooled out and ended up striking out too much to like have a meaningful big league career. They didn't do that. But Ellie is, you know, what he is physically. And so if I told you, you know, even given this and that caveat, this is what the athlete looks like.

Are you going to stuff that guy on your, where do you think that guy belongs on a prospect list? Where do you feel like even just the potential that he has to be what Ellie looks like he might be, what O'Neal Cruz looks like he could be, you know, sometimes they Joe Adele, right? Yeah. But what do you do? Like, where do you feel comfortable?

If I told you, hey, this guy's going to be Spencer Steer, I guarantee it. He's going to hit this way. Do you take the ceiling risk guy over the generic 50? Are you going to do it? Or do you want to give me the guy who I know is going to be fine? Right. Yeah. I kind of respect the higher probability, less sexy pick generally, higher probability, less sexy pick generally, right? But then if you miss out on the unicorn, then that sucks too, because Ellie's amazing and kind of transformative for a franchise. So you don't want to rule out that type of guy, but you will more often than not strike out just like that type of player strikes out. Right. And that's, you know, every year,

that type of player strikes out. Right. And that's, you know, every year, the new group of players comes through the complex, right? Where it's just like, oh, there's Ellie. Oh, here's, you know, Sebastian Walcott. Here's Yonsel Luis. There's your Donny De Los Santos.

And, you know, to at this stage, having seen this and that guy during extended spring training and then on the complex a little bit, are you going to do it? Where do you stick Junior Caminero when you see him in extended and you're just like, wow, that's a 17-year-old with seven bat speed. But boy, he does like to swing and boy, his you know his body's gonna fill out in a certain way that's gonna push him to third base and but boy he does have seven bats he doesn't you know it's just like so you gotta at some point decide like ah sebastian walcott 17 and a half he's got elite hand speed and he's 6 3 180 like yeah like i'm in there aren't real repercussions for me

if i end up being wrong. You know, I just feel like there's also a justification for doing it. Like, if I'm the Angels and I'm trading Otani at the deadline and I'm looking at the Rangers farm system and I see Sebastian Walcott might be a foundational, like, a superstar,

do I want him or do I want Ezekiel Duran? Ah, that's pretty tough. Yeah. Scouting's hard. So before we finish the draft talk, I guess we always ask you whether there's any team that stood out, you know, in a good way or a bad way, just sort of a head scratching draft or a wow, I really like what they did draft with all of the caveats that apply to how difficult it is to make snap judgments on these things. So were there any teams on either end of the spectrum that you thought, wow, well done, or I don't know exactly what they were doing?

Yeah, there are a couple of key players that we can touch on them in a moment, but I thought Milwaukee's draft, it looks very interesting. They ended up taking in the third round, Eric Patanti, high school. It's useless as a shortstop. He's maybe a DH. You know, he's like giant 6'4", 230, huge power right now, power projection. He's one of the younger high school hitters in the class. The general sense among the industry is that that guy wants $2.5 million to sign and end up not going to UCLA. I'm pretty sure it's UCLA. And then in the sixth round, they took another high school kid who I had ranked towards the back of the first round, Cooper Pratt, a high school shortstop, probably, you know, again, more third base from Mississippi, just like well-rounded, contact power, body projection is there.

How is the math going to work out for this draft class? Can they get both of those guys done? this draft class. Can they get both of those guys done? Did they take Batanti in the third round and then were scared by what his number might be and then divert to like a safety valve in the sixth round in Pratt? Or is there room to get both of these high upside high school guys done within their bonus pool? Is Brock Wilkin their first round pick out of Wake Forest who has some of the biggest exit velo's in the draft? It felt like a reach there for me purely on talent. I had him probably towards the back of the first into the comp round just because it's like a stiff big body third baseman's got to mash. The power definitely there is the contact piece of it going to be there

like i like him as a player but at 18 it's a little rich is he under slot it's a four million dollar slot if you can get him done for comp round back of the first round money which is like closer to two and a half mil you're saving 1.5 in your pool now we're talking about like getting batanti done you see who the other guys they took on day two of the draft were. And after Pratt, it's senior, fifth year, senior, grad transfer, grad transfer. Those guys are going to be 10K, 20K. And your slot between round seven through 10 is 250K, 200K, 175, 150. So you're saving, you know, about, I guess it's yada, yada, yada, like close to a million bucks by taking seniors the back half of day two. Do they have enough

bonus pool space to get some of those high school players done? That was the draft, you know, at the end of day two, I was like, huh, this is really interesting what they're doing. So that's a good one. The A's, you know, after the first night was over, I kind of looked at the A's draft and was just like, man, not into this really. I obviously understand. We talked about it at the top. The first tier of player went one, two, three, four, five, the A's pick six. At that point, it makes total sense to cut with your guy, have an underslot deal with your type of dude. And Jacob Wilson, who had six strikeouts this year, is exactly the A's type of guy.

And then they took Miles Naylor, the third of the Naylor brothers, with their comp round pick. I am not a Naylor guy. I just don't think he's going to hit, but there are tools there. There's plus bat speed, plus arm. He's a nailer. The nailers have panned out. It's okay to look at it that way and say this family can handle pro baseball and they clearly have this ability. Ryan Lasko, the Rutgers outfielder who they took in the second round, I was probably a little bit light on pre-draft,

revisiting that in the moment. Like I feel like that's a perfectly fine picket at 41. And then to see what they did on day two, where they got two more high upside high school arms in rounds three and four, Steven Echevarria, I had ranked very high. It's that vertical fastball curveball combo that I like with physical projection. He's only 6'1", 180, but has room on the frame for more mass. And I feel pretty good about what his long-term velo projection will be. Enough that I think he'll sustain the 92 to 95 that he's working with now, if not have more veelo at peak. And then Cole Miller, California high school guy right behind it. I like both of those guys. And so I felt better about their class after day two. The Pirates group, obviously getting Paul Skeen's number one, great job. He's awesome. Mitch Jebb

in the second round, contact, speed, lefty hitting, shortstop, second base. That's my type of player. You hit left-handed or switch hit. You have contact skills. You play up the middle of the diamond. I thought that was a good second pick for them. There were a couple instances where the Mariners, just by sheer volume of the picks that they had,

basically four picks in the top 60, you're going to have a good draft. Colt Emerson, their first pick, it's a lot like the Cole Young pick last year, except Cole Young now, Cole Young's like added 30 pounds of muscle and is now like a power hitting second baseman rather than a contact oriented shortstop, which he was on draft day last year. But Emerson is contact oriented shortstop, left-handed hitting, probably going to stay at short. It's a great profile, loved it. And then they took the high-risk upside guys

with their next two picks, Ty Peet on the younger end, huge frame, lefty hitting shortstop, huge power, hit tool risk. Johnny Farmelo, pick 29, plus-plus runner, had the second-fastest 30-yard dash time at the combine. I have some hit tool question marks about Farmelo, pick 29, plus-plus runner, had the second-fastest 30-yard dash time at the Combine. I have some hit-tool question marks about Farmelo. I was lower on him than this pick, but, like, I get it, at least. Like, I could see where they're coming from.

And then Aiden Smith, who they got in the fourth round, again, like, high school outfielder who, on talent, probably goes in the third round. Late second round, early third, perhaps. So I like their draft. I guess like the draft set felt kind of stilted to me. The Dodgers draft, the Dodgers had their pocket picked. The Dodgers, I think were targeting Thomas White, the high school lefty from Massachusetts. And he went the pick before them to Miami. And so I think they had to divert.

the pick before them to Miami. And so I think they had to divert. I think we might see them do something interesting here in round 11 within the next 20 minutes of us talking because I would guess that they still have pool space left. I think that the guy who they took in the first round, Kendall George, who's like an elite speed high school outfielder,

he looks at this stage kind of like Enrique Bradfield did coming out of high school where he's so small but can really run. Typically, you like a guy like this to go to college, prove that you have the physicality to do this and that you're going to hit, and then you're going to get Enrique Bradfield mid first round bonus money three years from now. I expect that he will be under slot with the Dodgers first pick. And, you know, they definitely in the third round, Brady Smith, Tennessee high school pitcher, that's probably an over slot guy, but it just seems like there's something missing here still. I don't know where

some of that extra money that they might've saved in the first round is just looking at the rest of the class and not like finding where they made up for, you know, trying to use this strategy. Like, all right, we got our pocket pick. Let's cut a deal and try to get more guys later. It just seems like they got one guy, but maybe that will change here in like the next couple of minutes. So that was definitely a draft that felt like a little bit weird to me as I'm paging through the White Sox draft, the White Sox. And again, like I get where some of this is coming from and there's clearly like a strategy at play here. And it's just that the players that they ended up with, I tend to be on in jacob gonzalez's case their first rounder it is weird for me to be

lower on this type of player this is you know three year young for the class ish sec performing shortstop like why aren't you on that guy long Long and Hagen? That's your guy. But just watching Jacob Gonzalez play, he just doesn't check the visual boxes for me in a way that I'm comfortable with. Some of these guys whose swings struggle to handle velocity up and away from them, I am starting to become more sensitive to that early in the process and move off of them sooner. Those are the warning signs for Carter Keboom. Those are the warning signs for JJ Bleday. Those are the warning signs for Keston Hura. Like if you cannot get on top of those, you know, rise and run fastballs as a left-handed hitter, you're in trouble because guess what?

Almost every big league righty has. And that's Jacob Gonzalez for me. He'ster, you're in trouble because guess what? Almost every big league righty has. And that's Jacob Gonzalez for me. He's like, you know, stepping in the bucket. His front side is bailing super early. And I fear that he's going to swing inside a ton of those fastballs. And so like I had him slid deep compared to what you typically would for a guy who performed like he did for three years in the sec. And I am sort of on an island in that. And you know what? Like at this point in my life, in my career doing this, like that's fine.

There have been plenty of times where I've wanted to do a thing like that, including with Bledeira. I was just like, this just isn't going to work. And I just didn't like, you know, grab my junk and do it. And I regret it, you know, after the fact. And so like, I'd rather be wrong and have conviction than feel this sense of regret.

And so like with Jacob Gonzalez, like I had him in the thirties or like 40 or something like that. And then somewhere along the line, the White Sox saved money and they took George Wolkow in the seventh round, a high school outfielder, first base DH. Like he'll end up somewhere in that area defensively. He's six, seven to 40 right now.

He has gigantic power, like immense power. And I just don't think he's going to hit, like, he's just another one where I just don't think this guy's going to hit it all. I'm off him. It's just the binary no for me, really. I totally see where the money goes. Look at his frame. Holy cow. Look at his power. I get it, but he's just not for me. I don't think he's going to hit. And the arms that they took between that first pick and the wool cow pick are also, they're fine. Grant Taylor, who they got in the second round is coming off a TJ. It's a vertical fastball, but with downhill playing. It's sort of sucking some of the effectiveness out of it, but he does have mid-90s ride.

He's coming off a TJ. He might have gone higher if he was healthy all spring. He would have been in the LSU rotation. It would have been Skeens, Floyd, and this other guy who's up to 98 sitting 3-5 with a carry and a good breaking ball. And it's just a reliever look mechanically and to take that guy in the second

round, it's just okay for me. So the White Sox was the other one where I was just like, not the best, but I can see what they're going for and I get it. It's just these players aren't necessarily for me. I have two more questions. And by the time you answer them, maybe those final picks that you're waiting to see will have happened. The first is about a tweet that your

colleague, Fangraph's writer, Kyle Kishimoto, made during the draft. One of the traditions of the draft is that we get to look at these Zoom cam views of the war rooms where the picks are being made. And the Rockies draft room just seemed extremely Rockies-esque. And Kyle just tweeted a screenshot of the Rockies draft room, and he said, it's hilarious to me that all the other draft rooms have dozens of scouts and front office people, and then the Rockies literally have three people on screen, all of whom appear to be above the age of 65. I would not say they all look that old to me, but it's just three dudes. And I wonder whether you think the view that we get this little window into the war rooms, whether that's actually

indicative of anything like, is this a reason to dunk on the Rockies? Not that we need additional reasons, but is like the composition of the draft room and who's in there and the makeup of those people, does that mean anything in terms of like how the picks are made or just how the organization operates? Just like rewarding people with their presence in the room. Like presumably a lot of the decision-making has been done and, and the players have been ordered and everything. And so maybe you don't need a village in there to make your selections,

but teams vary. It seems like in terms of how they set that up, I have some sympathy for the individual people who like want to be in control of the player opinions. And, you know, like I do, but yeah, there is a pretty vast array of choices the teams make with who's in the room, who is contributing to decision-making processes.

And some of the teams that sequester things to a very small number of people are good at this. Like the Braves and the Giants. Like the Giants don't have a lot of people sitting in there. And the Braves like keep things close within a handful of people. And I think also that you can be good at it and it still alienates your scouts and what scouts look like and like how many of them there are and what their jobs are. Like for some orgs has really changed over the last handful of years. I think that your next question has some stuff to do with that. But yeah, like for the Rockies in particular, and like, look, I know people who work for the Rockies who like have eaten dinner at my house, you know what I mean?

But they are weird and they're weird. They're a weird organization and they are behind in a lot of ways. And I do think that they do some stuff really well, like scout and draft and sign hitters in Latin America and domestically. But they are behind from a pitching development standpoint in a big, big way.

They are abnormally secretive about nonsense. There are times when their rosters for minor league spring training or for extended or whatever are just like wrong in a way that feels intentional and like they hide this and that and won't there was a time ben when like and this was you know the previous rockies regime and the individual who will remain anonymous like doesn't work there anymore with whom I had this interaction. But like I was on the Cubs backfield for an extended spring game and I'm looking at Javier Medina, who was a high school pitcher from Tucson who they drafted. And I'm looking at him and he's got on that like cast that pitchers who just had Tommy John have

on their arm. And so I text this guy and I'm like, Hey, when did Javier Medina have Tommy John? I help keep the database of Tommy John's. Like when I learn about it, I'll like tell Jean Rogel, Hey, this guy had Tommy John on this day so that he can have the thing. And so I'm like looking at the player and I'm texting this guy and I'm like, Hey, like when do you have Tommy John? And he's just like, ah, I can't confirm that he did. And I'm just like, I'm looking at him. I see his, the thing on his arm, dude. When did he have Tommy John? Like what's the harm in telling me that he had TJ? Is it embarrassing somehow to the organization that the guy had Tommy John teams know about it? Presum presumably, right? Like it's in the, you're not like keeping it secret in

the, in e-biz, right? So what's the harm in telling me so like I can do my job and report, hey, this high draft pick from two years ago had TJ. And it was just like, not like, sorry. Like I can confirm he's injured, but like, so it's just like stuff like that, where, why is this a thing that I and scouts have to contend with? Why do you have two number 95s on the field right now with no name on the back of the jersey like you're a professional baseball team please handle this uh and so like this is you know a rockies problem it is not exclusive to the rockies like i've been on the raised backfield and had similar issues where it's like huh this extended spring training roster like sure isn't up to date and uh a lot of these guys have the same number what's going on but but yeah it is like it is a consistent rockies issue for like me and others who just like want an accurate roster the fact that the rockies are behind is

like it's been part of it for a while it's like there are people in the org who are trying to catch them up it just takes so much time. When Cleveland has had kinetrax at their big league stadium for like a decade now, you are behind. And so, yeah, you know, I think it's, I'm pro have your scouts in the room because I think everyone feels like they have skin in the game and you have immediate access to information. When I can text an area guy in your org who's going right in front of you 10 minutes before you might otherwise know, and then they can just say out loud in the room that that's what's going to happen and now you know that, that's a pretty valuable thing to have. Just to have all those conduits of information and like you know be the point guard in the room if you want to run the room like be chris paul and not alan iverson i guess like you know that's i think that's the approach i would take is i want to share the ball even if

i have to be the one who ultimately makes the decision like i want to feel like a cohesive unit so that when my area scout is at the field and it's next year during next year's draft process and they have to like go to a junior college game where they know pretty likely there's nobody good there. But I still want them to like be present and attentive in case there is. Go look at Christian Encarnacion Strand's numbers. Okay. Go look at his numbers. That guy was at a junior college in Arizona for like a while. And he didn't get picked. He just went to Oklahoma State for a year.

Yeah. Teams, right? Like, don't you want, even if I don't think he's necessarily like a stud, he's a flawed player who I think is like a piece you win with, but not because of, I don't think he's like Pete Alonso or anything like that. But like to have that guy be passed over multiple times at a junior college, like the industry gets an F for that. Right. And so if you have skin in the game and you feel emotionally connected to our organization and you feel like you're at the field pursuing stuff like that with like real, your,

you know, your thoughts and opinions have real impact on our org and what we do. You, in my opinion, are more likely to be present and attentive and like fucking grind for us at the field than if it is just me and, you know, the tennis club buddies who I play golf with, like sitting at a table, the three of us, like, yeah, it doesn't really make sense to me to do it that way. All right. Last question. You sort of teased this. All right. Last question. You sort of teased this. Friend of the show, Lindsay Adler, wrote a piece for The Wall Street Journalics company that says it can document a prospect's specific movement patterns using just two iPhone cameras. The setup was available for use in evaluating prospects who agree to participate at the MLB Draft Combine in Arizona. Uplift says it uses artificial intelligence to translate the images captured

by the phone cameras into metrics that can quantify elements of player movement. It believes the data it generates can detect players' forecast their potential and possibly flag their potential for injury not the only company that's trying to do something like this some sort of biomechanical analysis via phones via apps right and high speed video yeah sure everything's labeled artificial intelligence now i mean i guess you know you would have called it machine learning or just some algorithmic way of evaluating computer vision, whatever. Right. So visual machine learning. Yes. Yes. Yeah. So but this is a partnership with the league, which sounds like it's partly a cost cutting measure. Like every team is doing its own analysis of biomechanics. And so if they could just have one vendor that every team pays for, the cheap teams will be like, hell yeah, right? And other teams that maybe are doing their own thing won't be so psyched about that. That's kind of in line with other reporting about MLP maybe wanting to limit spending or standardized spending or front

office size, et cetera. And so this worked like the pre-draft physicals where you could opt in or not. And if you're already a top prospect and you're going to go high in the draft, well, what do you stand to gain from submitting to something like this? If you're someone who's not in line to be a top pick, maybe you do. And maybe there's something that helps you pop and shows you off. But I wonder just how big a deal you think this is or is going to be. Do you think that AI, whatever we're calling this, is going to be a supplement to scouting? Is it going to be something that replaces scouting?

Are we a long way away from this actually adding useful information? long way away from this actually adding useful information. No, I think that this type of thing has been going on within certain organizations for quite a while now. Even going back to some of the Astro's sign stealing stuff, what I suspect they were using to parse some signals in real time was visual machine learning, especially at that time. I think if I remember correctly, and I don't know which story specifically it might be in, but there was one of the stories.

Remember like the guy was like pointing his phone at the Red Sox dugout or something like that. One of the stories that reported on that linked to and like cited the type of phone it was. And it was one of the, it was like a Huawei phone. And the model of phone that it was specifically was like a phone that has visual machine learning capabilities on board the device already. And like, you know, the demonstration that Huawei did of the phone's capabilities were like, you set the camera up and it was like,

they were putting different types of fruit in front of the phone camera and it would tell you what type of fruit it was. It would just like, you'd take the apple out of frame and put the banana in and it would say banana. Like it was just, you know just identifying what it was, right? So now we just need it to say future all-star instead of org player, right? Right. So what it's doing is like imagine motion capturing like Andy Serkis' face for the Planet of the Apes movies.

for the Planet of the Apes movies, or, you know, putting the mocap little balls all over Paul Pierce's body and having him, you know, dribble and shoot for, you know, NBA 2K or whatever, right? Like it's a version of that, except it doesn't need the physical contact points on the body for like the, you know, the computer software to read, you can just use the video and the, you know, the program can identify what's going on in terms of like the angles of the bot, the body is creating with itself. So, um, you know, I've talked about this, you and I've maybe talked about this, uh, and I've certainly mentioned it to like a bunch of other people, but I don't know if I've ever said it out loud on a podcast, and I sure as hell haven't written about it. I was in the Giants press box for a spring training game probably two years ago, and I'm a back-of-the-class guy. I want to sit in the back of the class.

I was just always like, it's open seating. I'll sit in the back of the class. Like I was just always like, it's open seating. I'll sit in the last row, please. And so in the press box, I have often a similar approach where I just like, you know, if I have to pick my nose or whatever, I get to be in the back of class and no one sees me and I'm just like hanging out back there, right? So the Giants have made this mistake of changing a lot of the space at Scottsdale Stadium into suites to make money. And so the press box is smaller. And so a bunch of people are crammed in there. And during this one spring

training game, some of their analysts were in there. And because I'm a back of the class boy, they were sitting in front of me. And some of them had like, they had their laptop and like a second monitor attached to the laptop and they're like working. And because the sight lines in Scottsdale Stadium's press box are so horrible now that they replaced what used to be two thirds of the press box with like suites. And I'm up above in like theater seating on like the type of thing that I would be

if I was like in a high school band about to play a concert, sitting at a picnic table, I can see over their shoulders at what it is they're doing. And I look at Alex Wood is on the mound, and in real time as he's pitching, a kinematic graph of his hip and shoulder separation throughout his delivery is like populating on these guys' screens. And I, you know, I'm a nosy SOB. And so, and I'm also, you know, coy and sly and like deceptive and generally a horrible person. And so I'm like, you know, playing dumb with these, these data analysts And they have to know I'm a media member. I'm in the press box.

So I'm just like, hey, like, what are you doing? Are you doing data things? Will you tell me? And they're just, you know, they start sweating. So we're doing, you know, yeah, we're working with data. It's like, oh, yeah, cool. Like, really? What is it?

And I'm just trying to, and I've got my cameras on me. And so, like, you know, I feel free to zoom on what it is you're doing. You're in the press box. So, like, fair game, right? So, anyway, I've got some stuff that I can maybe show you. But, yeah, like, this has been going on for a while where you can map what I would say is, I guess the way to put it is player's capacity for movement. And you can do it, you're measuring angles of the body and the degree to which they can

move their body relative to other parts of their body and the ground or whatever it is. And I do think it's very interesting. The paragraph you read that I think is important is the one where it's like, we want this centralized as much as we can because the technological space, no matter what it is, there's been an arms race, right?

We've always seen things trend this way where the Houston Astros put in a track man unit at Vanderbilt. They paid for it to be put in so that they could have exclusive access to the data coming from that track man unit. And this was in like the early days of that being a thing. And then at some point, Cleveland's owner or Pittsburgh's owner or Kansas City's owner whines that not only would we have to write a check to Florida or ASU or UCLA to do this, but all the schools who are relevant for this type of thing have already been occupied. Like the Astros did put one at Vandy and like now they have it and no one else does. And so, you know, we are perpetually behind and also don't want to pay to try to catch up. And so then

they, you know, okay, well let's, everyone shares, it all goes into a bucket and we pay, you know, the cost is deferred to all 30 teams and everyone. Now what you do with the data is how you separate yourself, right? And so things just tend to trend this way and things like this have, have happened. This is the dynamic that occurs. This is the trend that, that happens. And so I have no doubt, of course, Major League Baseball, when we're talking about trying to understand the pitchers at Wake Forest, it is very easy. They have all that stuff already there. And if you want to interface with them to get some of that stuff, like you can, but the junior college guy in Oklahoma is much more difficult. Like you, you know, you have to have a scout with an edger tronic camera or with, you know, the Sony RX 10 four that I have. And that Kylie has, and that like all the Yankees cross checkers have, and that the Cubs pro scouts scouting the complex have, it's like, you know, a $2,000 camera that shoots at a thousand frames per second. And if you get good open side footage with that camera, like you are going to learn so much about that individual's biomechanics. And so I think it's

a double-edged sword because you have some of these teams, colleges mostly, who are really good at developing pitchers. And some of it is because they're utilizing these techniques to understand and then develop them. Max Wiener, who had been working for the Mariners and is a big reason why a lot of the Mariners pitchers are good, just left the Mariners to work at Texas A&M, right? He's going to implement that stuff in that space. It's double-edged because you might not have as much meat on the bone developmentally if you're coming out of a program like that where you've already been developed. So the flaws that I am identifying in your mechanics might actually be a good thing.

You might end up being better from me having identified the flaws. Now, there might be some things that are like scary for other reasons, like, hey, bodies that move this way tend to get hurt, right? Like you start to understand those types of things over time. And then that can be detrimental to the player. But the thing that's weird about this, and like I've talked about this with Craig Edwards, because it is a thing that the players union cares about.

If I were going to do this, you know, like with Jar Jar Binks or whatever, like I got to mocap you and put the little, you know, the little dots on your body. And Andy Serkis, you know to mocap you and put the little dots on your body and Andy Serkis, you know, we got to put the little dots on your face. You have to consent to that. But if I just need an iPhone angle or two, you don't.

I can just have my phone at the field and you're not consenting for this very personal type of data to be spread out among all 30 teams. I would imagine like Major League Baseball Scouting Bureau sends people to the field to take video and get velocities and stuff. You know, like my guy is Leon De Winter. Leon De Winter works for the Scouting Bureau. Leon De Winter. Leon De Winter works for the scouting bureau. I see him all up and down the West Coast all spring with like, he's got a tripod set up where like the radar gun and the camera are like stacked one on top of one another. Like he's running around with so much gear for the bureau, busting his ass, try to collect as much of this stuff in a centralized way as pot as is possible so i do

think major league baseball if they had their druthers would like scouting and the expenses that come from having a robust scouting staff to like go away as much as it possibly can at the expense of like what i think is obviously there are issues sometimes with it. Like it's so male and it's hyper white and there are all kinds of like demographic issues that are pervasive through scouting and front offices in general because of social dynamics and stuff like that. Uh, pero the, I love shooting the shit with scouts and like that culture is important to, it's baseball- baseball in a way that I don't want to lose. And also like, if, you know, I'd like a job with the team, if, you know,

at some point, if, if, you know, it's the right fit and I'm tired of writing 300,000 words every eight months, but like, uh, I don't want it to go away. I love scout scoutiness, but I do think that major league baseball would rather centralize as much of it as they can sequester decision-making to a few individuals within each org so that it's as, as lean an operation as possible, allocate more dollars to player development and like understanding stuff like this. But, but I think those folks who are pursuing that should know that, Hey, like the robots are coming for you too. It seems right. Like look at if I can identify mechanical flaws in an individual via visual machine learning, then I'm, I'm gonna. So, but yeah, I think it's, I think it's interesting and I'm interested in it. Obviously, like I have

a high speed camera, but you know, I don't have like, I don't in it. Obviously, like I have a high speed camera, but you know, I don't have like, I don't send it to the kinetrax people and be like, all right, let me know guys. Like, cause ultimately I'm not developing any of them. I can see the Braves developing them. I can, you know, sort of back into with pattern recognition, hey, Dylan Dodd's delivery was like this, and now it's like that. And like, okay, they took Drew Hackenberg, whose delivery looks like this and his fastball shape looks like that.

And now a year from now, because I have data and video, I can look at what the Braves have done to it and say, ah, like they did this thing where his stride direction has changed and you know, there it is. It's different now look at the ways fastball is moving, but you know, to be able to, I think like weaponizing your scouts with some of this knowledge, hey, look for guys who look like this because they often can be changed to look like that

is very useful. And even just understanding some of these concepts and not having the intellectual horsepower to like build my own, you know, chat GPT type thing where it's just like, here you go, buddy, eat up this video I shot and tell me like if Kamar Rocker is going to get hurt again. But yeah, for sure teams are, are super duper doing that and have been for a very long time. And I think that's part of, well for a very long time and i think that's part of well a very long time in like a baseball sense and i think that's part of why you're seeing it major league baseball try to centralize it because it's like seems like the well the pirates are into it because i've seen people with cameras at the field you know in pirates gear for sure but just

teams like that that are just like we don't want to open our checkbook up to like have to compete with what the dodgers and the yankees are doing in this space please so can we just agree to all share and then everyone rolls their eyes at them and ultimately they share right well eventually a team will have to hire you and give you a good job just so you'll stop spying and social engineering in the press box. But just hire your instead. It's so fun, right? Because I would not get to do that if I were just, if I'm just a pro scout, I don't get to be up there.

And I also think it's hilarious that they felt comfortable doing it up there. Like they were sitting next, right next to a beat writer in the press box doing this stuff. And I was just like, why, you know, why are you guys doing it? And that beat writer was not necessarily paying attention to what it was that they were doing but you know i was why are

you guys doing this in here it's sort of disrespectful i i felt kind of disrespected by it that they were just like yeah we could whatever like no one's no one in here is going to watch what we go doing. They were asking to be surveilled by you. Right. I just love that. Yeah, for sure. I do have a folder of stuff that I shouldn't have just from being voyeuristic at the ballpark. at the ballpark,

just sort of like not having the impulse to do other stuff while I'm sitting in my seat opens up the world to me in a way that like, I'm happy to enjoy. But, but yeah, like it's, if it's, if an expansion, if we expand,

if major league baseball expands and like the Portland roses or something like that, I don't want some weird guy with an oddly specific grasp on the entire minor leagues like the most that one person maybe can like have then i'm happy to go do that that's the thing like being doing an expansion draft is like i'd have a hard time saying no to that that's the one where like megs may be sweating if if they expand because that is one of those things where i'll go out of my way to be like hey find my replacement because I want to go do this thing. Yeah.

And then some other people could catch up with your effectively wild guest appearance tally potentially too. Right. Totally fine. All right. Well, unless there's anything else you want to report from the 11th or 12th round of the draft that was taking place as we were just talking there, I think we can wrap up, but we saw... Let me just take... I'm taking a look right now to see... Okay. If anything changes your evaluation from earlier in this episode, we talked for a few draft rounds, I think. The White Sox took Riku Nishida from Oregon. They have him listed as a second baseman. He's a Japanese player who played college ball in the US and he's so much fun.

He's not a prospect, but he's so much fun. He intentionally does like the Baltimore chop. It's a thing he does. He runs like three, eight from home to first because he's got a super jailbreak-y swing. And he like intentionally tries to hit high choppers that he tries to beat out. There are a couple high school kids

who went here in round 11. We cared about the Dodgers, right? Yeah, they just took like a guy from Samford. So maybe the Dodgers draft is just sort of a shrug. It seems like that might be the case. It's a lot of college guys. The Brewers took another high school guy. That's so weird. I have to get on the phone and maybe try to figure out how many of these Brewers high schoolers are actually going to sign. And the Rangers took a high school kid too, Maxton Martin, who I don't

know anything about and will have to learn about because for sure, if you're taking a high school kid too, Maxton Martin, who I don't know anything about and will have to learn about because for sure, if you're taking a high school kid in round 11, you're probably going to sign him. You just use this time between rounds 10 and 11, the fact that it's overnight, you have time to do the math, figure out how much money you have left, and then work the phone to see who might be signable for the amount of money that you have left and then go get your guy in round 11. Anything that may have happened in the 11th round is a thing that I probably have to run down. Brett Banks from UNC Wilmington. The Mets got in the 11th round.

That's interesting. Mid-90s, mid-upper 90s reliever who probably moves fast. The Mets draft I didn't super duper love. They put all their eggs into the Colin Houck basket and then clearly cut underslot deals after him. I like Colin Houk as a player, but the Mets tendency to do this hasn't really worked out like, you know,

Matthew Allen and stuff like that, where they're kind of putting all their eggs in one basket. You know, I'm a diversify risk guy in the draft. So, you know, it feels risky, but here's a dude in the 11th round who's probably over slot Brett

Banks from UNC Wilmington. That's it. I know that's, that'll probably be it for me. Right. I will let you stop talking to me and go start talking to some scouts before they all get replaced by iPhone apps. Thank you.

As always, we will link to all your coverage of the draft, which is excellent as usual. Thanks. Bye everyone. Well, as the saying goes, no cheering in the press box doesn't say anything about peaking in the press box. So I guess Eric was well within his rights. One more thing I meant to ask Eric was how he explained

the record level of offense in college baseball this season. There were 1.13 home runs per game hit, which was an all-time NCAA record. Some people think it's the ball. Some people think it's better bats. Some people think it's illegal bats. Eric said he wondered if the transfer portal played a role. The guy who would have been UCLA's Saturday starter was just LSU's long reliever. That dynamic was common across the sport, and I wonder if more innings were thrown by below-replacement types than usual. He said it did make it harder to contextualize stats when second rounders were slugging 700. You may remember, by the way, that the future blast for episode 2029 noted that Paul Skeens was drafted by the

Nationals. So I guess that clarifies that the future blasts are in a different timeline. This is the multiverse. Also, we talked about the home run derby. We talked about John Carlos Stanton earlier. On July 8th, John Carlos Stanton hit two home runs, one of which was an absolute bomb down the left field line, 447 feet, the other of which barely got out down the right field line, 322 feet. That's a difference of 125 feet. And as you may recall, on episode 2018, we did a stat blast about the greatest differential in distance in the stat cast era between home runs hit by the same player on the same day. distance in the stat cast era between home runs hit by the same player on the same day. And if you limit it to two homer games, the biggest difference was 119 feet between two homers JD Martinez hit in 2018. So Stanton easily exceeded that. However, in 2019, Aristides Aquino hit three home runs and the greatest differential between the longest and the shortest was 125 feet,

which is the same as Stanton's. So either the greatest difference or tied for the greatest difference, depending on your qualifiers. Just wanted to update you on that. I got a fun question from listener Alex, who said, Since home run derby hitters swing every couple seconds, could two batted balls collide midair? It would need a moonshot on the first swing and a line drive on the next. So sort of Stanton's longer homer and his shorter homer. And maybe their trajectories would meet at the perfect time. I think it could be done.

That being said, could three balls collide? A moonshot, an in-between ball, and a laser line drive back to back to back? I hope your answer is yes, but I suspect I know better. So I sent this to physics of baseball expert Professor Emeritus Alan Nathan, and he said the first scenario is possible, but extremely unlikely. So he's saying there's a chance. A moonshot and a liner, those balls could collide. And if we were watching on TV, we wouldn't be able to tell.

He said, I guess I'd have to think a bit about the three ball case. Now it's a three body problem. He didn't say it wasn't possible. I'll take it. It is eminently possible to support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild. The following five listeners have already signed up and pledged some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going. Thank you. access to the Effectively Wild Discord group for patrons only. Plus access to monthly bonus episodes and playoff live streams, discounts on merch and ad-free FanCrafts memberships, and expedited email answers.

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