Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2036: The Shohei Ohtani Trading Game

Episode Date: July 22, 2023

In a 21-guest salute to Shohei Ohtani trade hypotheticals, Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley are joined by a multitude of friends for a role-playing exercise in convincing the Angels to trade Ohtani to the... other 20 contending (or quasi-contending) teams. Ben and Meg begin by explaining how it will work, and then the game begins […]

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Number one fangrass baseball podcast. The stat cast is stat blast. TOPS plus when the stats need contrast. Zips and steamer for the forecast. Coming in hot, big boss on a hovercraft. No notes, minor league free agent draft. Burn the ships, flames jumping for a nap. Cal FEMA, boning on the bat shaft.
Starting point is 00:00:29 Makers on the butt feet, never say your hot seat. Games are always better with the pivot table spreadsheet. No ads, subscribers will support us. Vroom, vroom, fast on your slog to rigor mortis. Hello and welcome to episode 2036 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of The Ringer, joined by Meg Raleigh of Fangraphs. Hello, Meg. Hello. Meg, Shohei Otani is probably not going to be traded. Probably not.
Starting point is 00:01:01 However, as Stephen A. would say, he might be. He could be. There's a chance. There's a chance. It's not impossible. It's not the most improbable thing, right? No, no. More improbable things have happened.
Starting point is 00:01:13 The existence and success of Shohei Otani is more improbable than the possibility of Otani getting traded. So stranger things have happened. Even stranger things surrounding Shohei Otani getting traded. So stranger things have happened, even stranger things surrounding Shohei Otani. And for that reason, we're devoting this episode to Shohei Otani trade talk. The angels are now in a listening mode with Shohei Otani trade inquiries. Sources say, John Marossi reported, suitors must be prepared to offer multiple top 100 type prospects to begin So, hey, if the angels are in listening mode, the Effectively Wild audience is always in listening mode. By default. They're always interested in conversation, right? That's what podcasts are.
Starting point is 00:01:58 So they can be in listening mode for the Otani trade proposals that we're going to talk about today. modes for the Ohtani trade proposals that we're going to talk about today. Now, the latest, as we record, sources, Morosi said, Morosi's all over this remote possibility of a Shohei Ohtani trade. The Angels are not close to a decision on whether to trade Shohei Ohtani. They're likely to wait until the final 24 to 48 hours before the August 1st deadline. Teams continue to contact the Angels and expressed interest in Otani because why wouldn't they? Right. I've expressed interest in Otani a time or two on this podcast. What? Yeah. So I got to thinking rumors are flying. Right.
Starting point is 00:02:34 Maybe we're wish casting this. Maybe it's just that an Otani trade would be exciting. It'd be good for business. Yeah, it'd be good for business. It'd be good for people who want to see shohei hotani play in the playoffs so maybe we're all just trying to collectively will it into existence yeah there are arguably less productive ways we could spend our time i don't know exactly what they would be but there probably are some so i mean well but ben, allow me to interrupt your intro here. I mean, there are, but are there more? Are there more productive ways? Off the top of my head, more productive ways, yes. On a baseball podcast, not necessarily.
Starting point is 00:03:16 Yeah, this is what I'm saying. I mean, like, productivity is but a construct. You know, it's really an extension of our understanding of capitalism. And so I say, let us push back against, you know, the tyranny of productivity and have a little fun, Ben. Let's have some fun. That's our purpose on this podcast,
Starting point is 00:03:36 to waste your time in as pleasant a way as possible. Yeah. So that's what we will endeavor to do today. And years ago, back when I was at Baseball Prospectus, I pitched in and helped oversee some exercises where we would role play trade talks. So someone was available. Back then it was someone like Jake Peavy or Hunter Pence or David Price. Again, this was a while ago. One person would pretend to be the GM of the team that employed that player. And then the rest of the writers, other members of the staff, would try to role play as other GMs and make their best offers. And we would see how it all hashed out. It was like a little preview of how the actual negotiations might go. Or at least, again, a pleasant time waster and so yeah i thought we could try to bring that
Starting point is 00:04:27 same format to the podcast medium which somehow we've never done in the 11 years of effectively wild's existence yeah it really is so we're gonna go through that same exercise here we're gonna cast a wide net with these suitors because hey hey, who wouldn't want Otani, right? Right. Everyone can afford him financially at least if not in terms of prospects. Sure. And he fits everywhere. You know, if you have a DH spot that's full, then you can just move your DH somewhere else because Otani's better than that guy.
Starting point is 00:05:01 Plus, he's a pitcher and who doesn't need pitching help, right? You can never have enough pitching. That's something people sometimes guy. Plus, he's a pitcher, and who doesn't need pitching help, right? You can never have enough pitching. That's something people sometimes say about baseball, right? So he fits on every team. Every team wants him. He brings a ton of on-field value. He brings a ton of off-field value. We are thus going to have a pretty big tent here. There are currently 20 teams that have double digit odds of making the playoffs,
Starting point is 00:05:28 according to the Fangraphs playoff odds, not counting the Angels themselves and also not counting the Cardinals, who've been pretty explicit about their intention to sell. Right. So we're going to take those 20 teams and we are going to have people play their top baseball executives, make their best offer, take their best crack at Shohei Otani. And we will see how it all plays out. Will any of these offers be good enough to get him? And if so, which one?
Starting point is 00:05:58 Pretty exciting, huh? Thrilling, Ben. Thrilling. I thought so. Thank you. Thank you for playing along. Thrilling, Ben. Thrilling. I thought so. Thank you. Thank you for playing along.
Starting point is 00:06:10 So normally we would bring on some top tier voice acting talent for a project like this. We would spare no expense. But of course, SAG is on strike. You know, the actors are all picketing. And thus we decided to try to get by with a little help from our friends here. And I was like, are you about to say that we're preparing to cross a big because oh no yeah no i don't i don't think that's what i'm saying no i don't i don't think i'm saying that our friends are scabs for taking part in this podcast they're not in they're not um i don't i don't think uh podcasters are in are in. Yeah, no one cares about podcasters. They need their own union.
Starting point is 00:06:46 We need our own union, Ben. So one of our friends, Ben Clemens of Fangraphs, sometimes referred to as Other Ben, he's going to play the lead role here. He's going to be Perry Manassian, the Angels general manager. We picked him for a number of reasons,
Starting point is 00:07:02 partly because he just oversaw the Fangraphs trade value series, which has been running all this week. So his mind has been honed by all of his research and all of his deliberations about trade value. And he had to figure out where to rank Shohei Otani, which was quite a perplexing question for him. And I will read you just a little excerpt of what Ben wrote about Shohei Otani. Quote, I have a hard time wrapping my head around Otani being this high. He should either be number one or not on the top 50. I think teams should give up more than this for him.
Starting point is 00:07:38 Time after time, Otani was the player folks most wanted to talk about while I was gathering feedback for this series. He's the best player in the world, and if he's moved, his tenure with his new team will be over in the blink of an eye. In the history of the Trade Value series, we've never had a rental ranked in the top 50, and we probably won't ever again. Ranking him 25th is somewhat arbitrary. He doesn't operate on the same axis as anyone else in this exercise.
Starting point is 00:08:03 All the production slash time slash money calculations I do to help determine trade value don't work for him, trading for Otani isn't about counting up wins and dollars. You're obviously going to be giving up more than you get back. It's about getting a global superstar for your playoff push, getting a huge influx of fans and international attention, and spending four months trying to convince a two-way wonder to accept a huge pileway wonder to accept a
Starting point is 00:08:25 huge pile of loot to play for you until he retires. It's about the chance to have your team's logo on his cap when his plaque goes up in Cooperstown. So that sort of sets the stage here. And look, even if Otani ends up not being traded, as we suspect, I think this is still a worthwhile, interesting exercise to go through. Because how do you trade for someone like that? It's pretty tough. He is unique. So you have to come up with some sort of unique offer for him. It's an unusual situation. And I hope it will be enlightening, even if it's all for naught in the sense that he doesn't actually change teams. Yeah. lightning, even if it's all for naught in the sense that he doesn't actually change teams.
Starting point is 00:09:10 Now, there are plenty of reasons why he will not get dealt. A, because he's amazing. And why would you want to trade him away if he played for you currently? He puts butts in the seats. People will buy tickets to see the Angels, if it means seeing Shohei Otani. And of course, the Angels are not completely out of it, right? They do have measurable chances of making the angels are not completely out of it right now they do have measurable chances of making the playoffs oh wow that was like i know you meant that as like a there's still a chance but wow that felt so mean oh boy wow yeah i mean it would be a mitzvah for all of us really if they would do it just so that we would get to see more of Shohei Otani before his season ends. But I'm just saying, they're not completely out of it. They just swept the Yankees, a direct rival in the wildcard race.
Starting point is 00:09:54 Their playoff odds, according to Fangraphs, 13 percent, 13 whole percentage points. They're only, what, a handful of games out of the wildcard race. So they have some motivation to stay in it. Plus, even if they don't make the playoffs, hey, at least you got to watch a singular superstar do his thing if you hang on to him. Who's to say that that isn't just as rewarding in its way as making the postseason? Probably most people would say that. But I've certainly watched more Angels baseball over the past few years than I have for some other playoff bound Otani-less teams. Of course, if you're the GM, if you're the owner, maybe you don't want to be the guy who trades Shohei Otani. I would not want to be that guy. Yeah. If you harbor some hopes of
Starting point is 00:10:34 bringing him back, convincing him to be a forever Angel along with Mike Trout, then you don't want to give someone else a crack at him. You don't want to let him see what it's like in another city in another relationship perhaps a more successful organization might make it tougher to persuade him to stay with you i just i do love how much trade talk sounds like being on the apps you know like um like what what's the one that famous people use raya i think raya yeah you'd definitely be on that one and uh and you know for the normies like you're having a good time on bumble you know i was on bumble when i was on the apps so it was my app of choice i hated it ben i hated it all my online dating done before the apps even oh were you like just on the website were you like a Craigslist guy?
Starting point is 00:11:26 Okay Cupid guy here. Okay Cupid. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I'm happy for you. Yeah. Thank you. There you go.
Starting point is 00:11:32 Anyway, you cannot just swipe one way or another on Shohei Otani and get him. You got to offer up a whole lot of talent and possibly other sweeteners too. So we will see how this works. Oh my. It sounds like you're going to the fantasy suite or something yeah i mean look it is a fantasy that he will be traded at all and also that someone will acquire him right yeah yeah the angels are five games out as we speak they are still technically a winning team just, by the minimum amount that one can be a winning team. But hey, it counts. And Mike Trout is out and it's not looking great.
Starting point is 00:12:10 But hey, there is still a possibility. And so it'll be tough to pry Shohei Otani out of their arms. Here's how this is going to work. Ben, again, is going to play Perry. And we will also have a cameo from the real Artie Moreno, Angel's owner. He does not know that, but he has said some things over the years. And some of those things will be played on this podcast. And then we will have a whole passel of people chipping in, 20 teams, 20 friends of ours.
Starting point is 00:12:42 Many of them, almost all of them, former Effectively Wild and in many cases regulars, familiar voices, but they will be introduced just in case their voices are not familiar to you. I asked our participants to strive for realism, even if it meant that they'd probably take themselves out of the running. And I also said that they could do three team trades or trade with each other prior to an Otani trade because things were complicated enough as it was. And they will put their best proposals out there. Ben will respond. There will be a second round. There will be some teams that advance to a finalist stage. And Ben will make counter offers.
Starting point is 00:13:17 And then those GMs will have the opportunity to counter the counters. And then we will see how it works out. We will see if Shohei Otani gets traded and if so for what and to whom and there is also a listener voting component to this so I'm gonna put all of the offers in a Google form and I will link to it on the show page and you can go and vote on a what you think the most enticing offer is, and B, you can just check off as many of the offers as you think.
Starting point is 00:13:51 Clear the bar for, hey, yeah, maybe the Angels should actually take them up on this offer. That would get a callback. At least. And we will see what the crowdsourcing says, the wisdom of crowds. And when it comes to the teams making these proposals, we will go in ascending order of playoff probability from long shots to locks. And you and I will reconvene after this exercise to briefly discuss the way it went down. So take it away, Ben Clemens, or should I say Angels GM Perry Manasian.
Starting point is 00:14:21 Hey, Arte, you there? Sorry, I'm calling from my office at home. Marty Moreno? Yeah, I know. We talk all the time. So the deadline's coming up. Are you okay with us listening on Otani trades? I think it's important to win every year, period. But I think Otani wants to have an opportunity. Everybody deserves an opportunity. Okay, I'll see what offers are out there. If there's a decision, if we're going to negotiate dollars and we want to get a deal done, I need to be there because I can make the call. And the reality is, anytime you sell or do something, it potentially can change the fan experience.
Starting point is 00:14:57 Especially when you're talking about someone like Shohei Otani. Quite a gentleman, quite a young man. He's arguably the most unique player and probably one of the top five or 10 players. So, uh, that's business. We're going to sit down. Hey, no argument from me. Okay. I'll come back to you with the best offer when I've talked to all the teams. First up, the Seattle Mariners with the part of Jerry DePoto, played by Zach Buchanan, formerly of The Athletic, current free agent and freelancer. You have one unheard message. First unheard message.
Starting point is 00:15:34 Pear Bear, it's Jer Bear. You know who I'm calling. I can't resist a chance of trading for the white whale. I want Otani. So, here's the offer I'm prepared to make for a two-month exclusive negotiating window and almost no chance of making the playoffs anyway. I'm going to give you Brian Wu. I'm going to give you Jonathan Class A, two of the jewels of our farm system. But I'm also going to give you two other pitchers, Taylor Dollard, Emerson Hancock, and the baby T-Rex himself, Lazaro Montes, just crushing it down in the Arizona Complex League. I hope that's enough to sway you. Call me back. Let me know. Please leave your message. Jerry, how's it going, man? Just gonna
Starting point is 00:16:12 be up front with you right away here. Thought your offer was very fair. Love Brian Wu. But it's coming down to similar packages. RTA is always going to prefer we move outside of division and particularly outside of the West Coast more than anything else it's just not not quite there you'd need to really have knocked my socks off with the initial offer to even get in the further discussion window here i appreciate it again love brian woo if you you want to send them our way for some other reason give me a shout but this just doesn't quite work for me so i appreciate you calling but i think there's all the business we have to do have a go good one, man. End of message. To delete this message, press 7. Message deleted. Next up, the New York Mets with the part of not Billy Epler, but Steve Cohen seizing the reins for
Starting point is 00:16:56 himself, played by Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions and the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast. First unheard message. Steve Cohen here. I don't do bad investments, so I'm going to sit and wait and then pounce. If we cut the deficit to three games in the wildcard race, we'll give you two of the following three. Jet Williams, Blade Tidwell, and Kevin Parada. You'd be getting two of our top five running Mauricio's off limits. Please leave your message. Steve, thanks for reaching out for me, and I'm going to say this up front.
Starting point is 00:17:29 I sincerely hope the Mets sign Shohei this offseason. He's not coming back here at this point. I think we're all resigned to that. But getting him as far away as possible from Anaheim is probably the best thing for my job security. So all the best to you guys in that. With that said, yeah, I don't think this really fits you guys. And I think I can kind of tell from your offer that you don't think it really fits you guys either. It's always a pleasure talking to you, but this is just not quite what we're looking for in a return for Shohei. So have a good one, man. And again,
Starting point is 00:17:55 I mean it with all seriousness. Hope you get them. Message deleted. Next message. The Cincinnati Reds with the part of Nick Kral played by Dan Simborski of Fangraphs. First unheard message. Hey Perry, it's Nick Kral. I wanted to connect with you about Otani. Apologies in advance, I have a cold, so my voice sounds like someone doing a bad impersonation of me. We'd love to add Otani for this direction. I'd like to pick
Starting point is 00:18:18 you in the merits of Christian Encarnacion Strand, Edwin Arroyo, Brennan Williamson, and Lion Richardson. We'd have called up Encarnian months earlier if we hadn't had such depth of positions he played. Arroyo will be a dynamite pairing with Zach Netto and Williamson and Richardson can both step into the rotation very quickly as your team retools.
Starting point is 00:18:34 I also promise you won't have to eat any Cincinnati chili. Please leave your message. Hey, Nick. Good to hear from you. You know, it's strange. In my head, I always thought you sounded a little more like Dan Zimborski, but I guess that's not the case. I guess I've just been way off. As regards the Otani offer, I appreciate it. I think it's a very fair offer. People are going a little bit on the unfair side of things.
Starting point is 00:18:56 I like CES as much as the next guy, but I'm hoping to get kind of a top-tier name or two to hang at the top of this Otani return to make my job look a little bit more secure, in my eyes at least. So CES, not quite going to be there, and I'm not even going to wind you up by asking about either McLean or Ellie. So have a good one, man, and I will talk to you later. Message deleted. Next message. The Boston Red Sox with the part of Chaim Blum, played by Jake Mintz of Cespedes Family Barbecue,
Starting point is 00:19:25 Fox Sports, and the Baseball Barbecue Cast. First unheard message. Hey, Perry, this is Chaim Bloom. I've got a couple different things for you here. First, I just want to say thank you for being one of the few people in baseball to pronounce my first name correctly. I get a lot of Chaim. I get a lot of Haim, I get a lot of Haim,
Starting point is 00:19:45 like the band, but Haim is correct, as you know, and I've always appreciated that. So first off, thank you there. Speaking of our great relationship, I just wanted to give you a ring about your DH. We're interested in picking up a bat and an arm at the deadline, so he could be a guy for us. Ideally, we wouldn't have lost a series to the Oakland A's before I called you, but that's just the way the cookie crumbles. So let's do this. Let's start with Otani, the Shohei Otani, and Joe Adele, who I believe is just wasting away for your AAA team in Salt Lake. So we'll do Adele and Otani. For Jaron Duran, our center fielder, young, controllable, getting better out there defensively. Nick York, he was in the Futures game.
Starting point is 00:20:33 Mikey Romero, who is an Orange County guy right down the road who doesn't love a local kid. Roman Anthony, who's got a very odd statistical profile profile but boy oh boy is he ripping it up uh this year offensively let me take a quick gander at his numbers yeah I mean that's a 147 WRC plus I mean you don't have to worry about how he's doing that uh Chase Medroth um is it bad that I can't correctly pronounce my own player's names uh yeah Maybe, but that's just the way it is. He's like a high floor bench guy, just a little bit of depth piece. So, yeah, we'll go over it again. Shohei Otani, who, again, free agent at the end of the year.
Starting point is 00:21:14 Jaron Duran, Nick York, he can really hit. Mikey Romero, local kid. Roman Anthony and Chase Miedroth. Miedroth. Anyway, Perry, I appreciate it. Just give me a ring uh anytime i'll be available uh if any interest in seven time all-star chris sale as well uh just let me know all right be well please leave your message hi and thanks for taking the time to give me a call
Starting point is 00:21:39 i very much appreciate your offer and i like that you really stepped up put your best foot forward right away unfortunately this is just not going to be a fit for us. It's kind of just the wrong shape. We're looking for more of a very high upside star. I love Duran, really not the kind of guy I'm looking to say I got back in an Atani trade, but we're also looking for pitching. And I know that's been a bit of a sore spot for you guys as well. So you came in strong. I would not deny that. It's just not a good organizational fit between the two of us. So I appreciate it.
Starting point is 00:22:07 And again, thank you. Let's keep in touch on any other deals we're looking to making this deadline. Message deleted. Next message. The Cleveland Guardians with the part of Chris Antonetti played by Bailey Freeman of Foolish Baseball.
Starting point is 00:22:19 First unheard message. Perry, buddy, how's it hanging? It's Chris from the Guardians. Now, you know that I know that you know exactly who I'm calling about, so I'll go ahead and cut to the chase. Big League first baseman Josh Naylor, middle infield prospect Brian Rocchio, left-handed pitching prospect Joey Cantillo, and the baby of the group born in 2005, Jason Churrio. Look, this is a rental for us. Other trade suitors are going to get in his ear about an extension, attempting to put themselves in a favorable position for his services this winter. But not us.
Starting point is 00:22:57 If you have hope he's ever coming back, trade him to the Cleveland Guardians. Please leave your message. Chris, what's up, man? Good to talk to you. Haven't talked to you in a while. Good to hear your voice again. You guys don't do a lot of trading with us because I know you're kind of looking for volume, and we're often looking for volume too, so it's kind of an awkward fit.
Starting point is 00:23:18 Anyway, it's good to re-engage. I appreciate you reaching out with what I think is a very fair offer for Otani. I think some people made better offers. I'm not going to give it to you any other way than straight here. I just don't like these players quite as much as the other players are being offered. You guys think Otani would have had a good time in Cleveland? You know, I don't think he's that big of an E-Tro fan, but this is not quite doing it for us. Let's talk again sometime soon.
Starting point is 00:23:39 Have a good one. Message deleted. Next message. The New York Yankees with the part of Brian Cashman, played by Zach Cram of The Ringer. First unheard message. Hey, Perry. It's Brian. I have a three-pronged offer for Otani.
Starting point is 00:23:54 First, Jason Dominguez. He's not a big a star as Otani. Who is? But you can sell your fans on the most famous minor leaguer on the planet, who's basically on pace for 25 homers and 50 steals as a 20-year-old in AA. Second, you get your pick of any two pitching prospects in our system. I know you've tried all sorts of strategies to improve your pitching core, and they've basically all failed. How about taking a couple arms that I've already sprinkled with our Yankees' developmental magic?
Starting point is 00:24:19 Now, you might be thinking to yourself, that's not quite as good a prospect package as other teams are offering. You're probably right, but that's where my third prong comes in. I'll also take back Anthony Rendon's contract, so you don't have to pay $38 million a year through 2026 for someone who hasn't been good or healthy with your org. I'd bet Artie would be thrilled to save $125 million, and Fangraph's prospect valuations say that's like adding a 70 future value prospect to the deal. I can't imagine you'll receive that commitment from any other team. But we're the Yankees. We'll take Rendon as an Otani tax. Please leave your message. Hey, Brian. Appreciate you reaching out to me with this offer. And I gotta say,
Starting point is 00:24:59 stack it up on the merits. It looks pretty good. Love your pitching. Love Jason. Guy's gonna be a star somewhere, or at the very least sell some tickets, like you said. Just got to tell you, moving Rendon's a non-starter here. Like, I appreciate what you're trying to do with our value, but we can't look at this trade as a way to dump salaries. It's not good for my job. It's not good for the team's reputation here. Even if it made sense from a dollars and cents perspective, which I think it does. I think this is a strong offer.
Starting point is 00:25:22 It's just not the way that we're going to operate on this deal. So love the framework. Love your thinking. It's not going to work for us on this one. Have a good one. Message deleted. Next message. The San Diego Padres with the part of AJ Preller played by Mike Petriello of MOB.com and the Ballpark Dimensions podcast. First unheard message. Sorry, it's AJ. Listen, you got a real problem and I have a solution. You know you have to get something for Otani and you know you've got nowhere to trade him. Your owner's not going to let you send him to the Dodgers. You don't want to give him two months in Seattle to realize how much you'd like to live there and bash your brains in for the next five years. The two New York teams are toast. And as much fun as we'd all have watching you try to send him to Baltimore or Milwaukee or Cincinnati, I don't really think you're going to send him out the door with bad feelings if it's to a place he's not interested in going, which leaves me. I'm desperate. You're desperate. We already talked about this last summer and there's a deal to be made here. So I'm offering you this pitcher, Robbie Snelling, shortstop, Jackson Merrill,
Starting point is 00:26:19 and outfielder Samuel Zavala, three of my top five prospects. And as a sweetener, I will also take on the rest of that David Fletcher contract he signed for some reason. I haven't added a shortstop in a minute, and I'm starting to get the shakes. Hey, do you think Otani can play shortstop? Hit me back. I'll be up all night. All night. AJ. Please leave your message. AJ, you are a wild man. I have to respect you for always going for it with whoever you can send out. I'm going to keep this very straightforward for you. You are one of the top trade offers we've received for Otani. I really love that you're putting your money where your mouth is and
Starting point is 00:26:55 starting with Merrill, who is the best prospect in your system. We love him. You love him. It's pretty obvious why. I'm going to tell you the one problem we have with this deal. Maybe you've seen our team. We need pitching. We need pitching more than anything else. It doesn't have to be pitching this year. In fact, it's probably useless to have pitching this year at this point. We're trading Otani. We're not going to make the playoffs. But I need pitching soon because this is not going to work out well if I'm not getting any arms to help Mike Trout like right away. Love Merrill. Love what you're offering me here. I just feel like Snelling is a little too far away, and I need to do something to improve my pitching in the nearer term to really get this over the
Starting point is 00:27:28 line. Hit me back. All right, we have our first finalist. Put a pin in the Padres. We'll return to their counteroffer later. And now the Miami Marlins with the part of Kim Ang, played by Michael Bauman of FanCrafts. First unheard message. Greetings. Kim Ang here from the Miami Marlins. What we're going to do is take all that money that Bruce Sherman has taken out of the team and the community over the past decade, and we're going to use it to sign Shohei Otani to a 10-year, $800 million contract extension after we trade for him. So the big thing when I was thinking about what to offer was, do we include Aori Perez or not? And I just can't bring myself to do it. It's too big a prospect for a rental, even if we will use, like I said, our owner's immense financial might to throw more money at Otani than he's ever seen before. But I was able to come up with what I think will be a very
Starting point is 00:28:22 credible, very attractive offer. I'm trying to anticipate your needs, the Angels' needs, and what you want to do, most likely, is to continue to contend as soon as possible with Trout and Rendon and, you know, this core of players in or at the end of their prime. And what I'm offering allows you to reload for 2024 and stay competitive for years to come. So the two centerpieces of the deal are Braxton Garrett and Max Meyer. Garrett is in the Marlins rotation right now. Meyer is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was the number three overall pick in the draft. He's one of my favorite college pitchers in the past five years. Both of these guys are going to be reliable, at least
Starting point is 00:29:00 mid-rotation starters. They're both under team control until 2028, so at least that long. You know, we're dealing from our core competency, which is developing pitchers, which is not a strength of the Angels. So think of this as just outsourcing pitching development to a club that's better at it. The other interesting thing about Meyer is that he played both ways in college. He was an outfielder as well as a pitcher, and so is the third player I'm including in the deal is Dane Myers, who was a handy little pitcher at Rice. So he's a two-way player as well. And while I was coming up with this offer, I asked Ben Lindbergh if I could make ancillary trades to beef up my package.
Starting point is 00:29:34 Because a lot of the Marlins position player grouping is not that good. And Ben, because he's an officious little ****, told me I wasn't allowed to do that. Well, too bad bad because I contacted Ray's GM, RJ Anderson and Philly's GM, Jordan Schusterman. And I've acquired Brendan McKay for a player to be named later and Derek Hall for Devin Smeltzer, which means I can now offer you four count on four two way players. And I don't think any other GM is going to be able to say the same. So really, you know, what this trade offer allows you to do is to beef up your rotation to secure the future and also corner the market on two-way pliers. Thank you for consideration. Good night and God bless America. Please leave your Oh, hey, Kim.
Starting point is 00:30:27 Thanks for reaching out about Shohei. Appreciate your offer. I took it in all seriousness, and I hate to say that we have to pass. Enjoy your two-way players. Message deleted. Next message. Well, I would have officiously vetoed that trade because Kim defied me by making ancillary swaps to set up the Otani
Starting point is 00:30:46 trade. Fortunately, it didn't make a difference, so I didn't have to step in. And so we can proceed to the next contender, the Arizona Diamondbacks, with the part of Mike Hazen, played by Ginny Searle of Baseball Prospectus. First unheard message. Hi, Perry. I bet you're wondering, how do I become the first Angels GM to have the job for five seasons in like 20 years? What you're going to do is you are going to trade Shohei Otani to us, the Diamondbacks. Why? Well, do you remember when Zach Reinke was an Angel? Do you remember when Mark Teixeira was an Angel? No, because they were only on the team for like six months and then they left in free agency and no one remembers it.
Starting point is 00:31:19 That could be us. Or we could keep him. Who knows? Here's who you're going to get. Drew Jones, because Mike Trout's going to be injured sometimes and you need someone to play center field. Brandon Fott, because he's ready to step into the rotation and Ken Kendrick has wanted me to trade him ever since he gave up four homers in his debut. And Yumin Lin, he just turned 20 years old. He's the youngest pitcher in AA and he throws 90 miles per hour, but they're 90 good miles per hour. All right.
Starting point is 00:31:43 Let me know, Perry the Platypus. Thanks. Please leave your message. Hey, Mike, just returning your voicemail. You know, I don't normally let so many calls go to voicemail, but I'm a big commuter. You know, I got to commute from LA to, well, if Arte's listening, from LA to LA, but realistically to Anaheim. I like to just turn my phone on, do not disturb, crank up the music and kind of mellow out. But obviously around this time of year with us potentially trading Otani and all, I don't want to jump to any conclusions. That might've been a mistake. So I'll cut to the chase here. I like
Starting point is 00:32:14 what you're offering me. Got some top end names, which I'm absolutely going to need to move Otani. I like Fott quite a bit, even though, yeah, like you said, he might not be ready for the big lights just yet. He's ready for the big lights here because we don't have anybody better. I like the amount of top end guys we're getting back here. That's absolutely a must in this trade. You're right at the top of the list here. You know, we got everybody we're considering acquiring up on little magnet boards on the wall, and you guys are just in that top tier.
Starting point is 00:32:40 But to push this over the line, to get it to the next level, and for me to say, yes, this is the deal, I'd love to to see one more arm it doesn't need to be somebody in the majors right now it doesn't need somebody who's going to definitely stick as a starter but we need arms if you can give me one more exciting name to kind of pair with the rest of these i think we can get this over the finish line so uh hit me back the diamondbacks move on to the next stage joining the padres their counter will come later now we hear from the philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies with the part of Dave Dombrowski, played by Jordan Schusterman of Cespedes Family Barbecue, Fox Sports, and the Baseball Barbecast. First unheard message.
Starting point is 00:33:15 Hey, Perry. It's your old friend, Dave Dombrowski. You know me quite well. We've made some trades in the not-so-distant past. Calling about Shohei Otani. You've probably been getting a few calls about him. Wanted to throw our hat in the ring because, you know, we're the Phillies. We go for it. I'm Dave Dombrowski.
Starting point is 00:33:33 I'm here to make big moves. So just going to throw a little offer out there, see how you take it. Again, no hard feelings. We've already made some really fun trades that have clearly benefited both teams. So, you know, no big deal either way. But I just wanted to give it a shot here. So, I think we're going to start the package with Andrew Painter, at least assuming you have not read the news at all in the last few months.
Starting point is 00:33:56 I mean, I think that's a – okay, I'm just kidding. I'm not going to pull a fast one on you. It's fine. Painter, don't worry about it. I mean, if you're interested, if you want to buy into the TJ, that's fine. You can do that. But all right, never mind. Well, let's get to the real deal.
Starting point is 00:34:08 Mick Abel, just started the Futures game. We love Mick Abel, and you love Mick Abel too, which is why he's now in this trade package. Griff McGarry, another guy with tremendous stuff. Is he a reliever? Maybe. But hey, that's your problem because you're about to trade for him. How you Lee, a infield prospect, one of the better hit tools in our system. I think he could certainly hit in your system too.
Starting point is 00:34:28 How about Carlos de la Cruz, a six foot eight outfielder, a gigantic outfielder with huge raw power. That's like all the craze now. That's like what baseball's all about. And you could have one for the small cost of Shohei Otani. And then finally, we'll throw in Orion Kirkering, probably a reliever, but nasty stuff. And I'm sure you'll put him in the big leagues tomorrow, even if you're no longer contending
Starting point is 00:34:50 in 2023. So there we go. Abel, McGarry, Lee, Dela Cruz, Kerkering, not necessarily so much major league ready guys, but I think it's a solid package. And if it still feels light, just remember that Shohei Otani isn't the only guy on your team within 1,000 OPS. And think about where you got that guy. All right. Thanks, Perry. And good luck. Thank you for considering my very, very generous offer. Please leave your message. Trader Dave, how's it going, buddy? Just returning your voicemail, and I'm going to cut right to the chase because I know you've got a lot of deals to make. It's late July.
Starting point is 00:35:26 Like the package. You're one of our finalists. There's a lot of players here, and there are good players. That's two things I like. I don't want to change anything around fronting it around Abel. That makes a lot of sense to me. He's the kind of guy that we need. I'm feeling a little light on just the second level of this, and I don't know if there's anything the Phillies system can do to quite fix that. I'm not a huge McGarry fan, but let's stay in touch. Let's work on some alternative packages
Starting point is 00:35:51 that could maybe punch up the second level of this. There's a lot of depth you're offering me here, a lot of bulk, and I'm just hoping to turn a little bit more of it into quality as well. Hit me back. The finalists are coming fast and furious now. The Phillies join the Padres
Starting point is 00:36:05 and Diamondbacks. We'll hear more from them later. For now, we move on to the Minnesota Twins with the part of Derek Falvey, played by Louis Paulus, formerly of Front Offices and currently of The Lose Letter. First unheard message. Harry, hope you're not the other line with the Guardians. I don't want this franchise to go 20 years without a playoff win, and a guy who's two players long would fit in really well here since we have two cities in one. Our offer for Otani starts with Brooks Lee. I assume your group has him as our top prospect.
Starting point is 00:36:30 That's what everyone else does, at least the guys who are out of the trade. We hate to give him up, but I know there's no version of this deal that doesn't start with him, so consider him yours. Our second piece is Alex Kirilov. Now that he's healthy, he looks like the hitter people said he was going to grow into for years, but we think there's still some more power in the tank. He slides right into your lineup from now through 2027.
Starting point is 00:36:48 Finally, an unprecedented player merits an unprecedented trade offer. I'm offering you a prospect buffet. You can choose any 10 prospects in our system outside of our top 30. I don't want to haggle over internal rankings, so I'll just use MLB.com's. Raw tools, gut feel guys, players you think your dev group could work well with. Every one of the miners these days is something you can dream on, so I'll let you take your pick. That's a top 20 prospect, a now bat, and what I have to imagine is the largest prospect all in modern history. Let me know. See ya.
Starting point is 00:37:15 Please leave your message. Hey Derek, how's it going? Sorry I missed your call. You know, it's been happening to me a lot recently. Just wanted to get back to you now that I have the chance. It's been a pretty busy day over here. I certainly like the amount of prospects we're getting in your offer. But I'm just going to let you know that that's not going to quite work for us. This is not really the way that I want to be remembered for trading Shohei Otani for 12 players, 10 of whom no one can even think of the names of, one of whom is kind of a post-hype sleeper.
Starting point is 00:37:44 I certainly appreciate you trying to fix one of the biggest problems with our system, but doing it with a bunch of little prospects might make sense in the long run. It doesn't make sense for us as a centerpiece for trading Otani, so we're going to look elsewhere for it, though I obviously appreciate your offer. Thanks a lot, and have a great day. Message deleted. Next message. The Houston Astros, with the part of Dana Brown, played by Hannah Kaiser of the Bandwagon podcast and Yahoo Sports, where earlier this year she wrote about the friendship of Alex Anthopoulos, Perry Manassian, and Dana Brown. First unheard message.
Starting point is 00:38:15 Perry, it's Dana. Sorry I've been sort of MIA on the group chat lately. It's not because Alex was salty after we swept them in April. I mean, really, like he has anything to worry about anyway. Because Alex was salty after we swept them in April. I mean, really, like he has anything to worry about anyway. I've just been so swamped getting up to speed on a whole new organization where everyone just plans on playing in the World Series every year. Of course, those kinds of expectations are a blessing, you know. Or maybe you don't. Sorry. And that's actually why I was calling.
Starting point is 00:38:38 Now, look, this is my first trade deadline, so I'm not sure if there's an etiquette around these kinds of things, but you know I would always give it to you straight. As a friend, Perry, I think you have to trade Otani. It'll hurt now to lose him, but it's like that part in trading places. Think big, think positive, never show any sign of weakness, always go for the throat, buy low, sell high. Perry, this is your chance to sell high before he walks. So listen, here's what I've got for you.
Starting point is 00:39:01 It doesn't even set your timeline back too far because I'm willing to part with controllable major league outfielder Chaz McCormick, who could have, nay, should have, been an all-star, and rookie righty J.P. France. That's a couple of big league guys. You'll be back to meaningfully chasing us in the division in no time. Ha! A kid, a kid. There are some real perks to taking over a dynasty, though.
Starting point is 00:39:21 In terms of prospects, I can give you this high upside kid, Ryan Clifford. He's got a couple of medals on youth clubs, and you guys could use a dynasty though. In terms of prospects, I can give you this high upside kid, Ryan Clifford. He's got a couple of medals on youth clubs and you guys could use a proven winner. And lefty Colton Gordon, he's in double A now but rising fast. So let me know what you think. And Perry, as a baseball fan, don't you want to see Shohei play in the World Series? Who do you think is most likely to make that happen? Anyway, give my best to your family. Oh, I'm texting you this link to the trailer for the new Eddie Murphy movie, the one with Jonah Hill. What do you think? Should we try to go see this? In November, of course. Please leave your message. Dana, if I knew I
Starting point is 00:39:56 just had to put Otani on the block to get you to give me a call, I would have done that a while ago. No, but in all seriousness, it's good talking to you. I'm sure we'll have some fun in the future, ago now but in all seriousness it's good talking to you i'm sure we'll have some fun in the future but you're just a little short on this one chas mccormick is a he's a very good player he'll play in the major leagues he does play in the major leagues he's probably an all-star like you said but i i need something exciting for our fans and that's just not really the package front that's going to work in the trade of otani here so you know obviously i appreciate it and obviously i'll see you the next time you're in town but the bidding is a little steeper than this at the moment. And yeah, it's just not really going to work with what you got going on right now. I'll
Starting point is 00:40:32 talk to you later. Message deleted. Next message. The San Francisco Giants with the part of Farhan Zaidi played by Eric Langenhagen of Fangraphs. First unheard message. Hey Perry, what's up buddy? It's Farhan. Hey, I hope you got that thing that we. First unheard message. Hey Perry, what's up buddy? It's Farhan. Hey, I hope you got that thing that we talked about taken care of. But anyway, I figured I'd call and leave you a voicemail in 2023 about a very important trade we might make. But as you know, like my middle infield situation is pretty rough. Tyro Estrada's injury and Brandon Crawford being kind of over the hill.
Starting point is 00:41:01 And so what I really should be doing is focusing on upgrading that situation. But I figure, hey, like maybe there's a chance I can kill two birds with one stone here and get Otani too. So hey, I know you like Logan Webb a lot. Don't ask me how I know that you would do this, but I think you would do Logan Webb for Otani straight up pretty comfortably. And so in exchange for Shohei Otani and Zach Netto, which I think, you know, shores up my middle infield situation for like the foreseeable future I'm offering Logan Webb Lamont Wade and a player to be named later and if you think we can make it work where the sweetener the player to be named later in this trade is you know maybe what the thing hinges on then you should call me back but
Starting point is 00:41:42 the framework for the deal is Logan Webb I know I'm a ruthless son of a bitch. We just extended him. He's from here. But you know what? Like guy throw 92 in October, November. Ah, we really want that guy to be our best guy. I don't know. Probably not.
Starting point is 00:41:57 So hey, Logan Webb, Lamont Wade, player to be named later for Otani and Zach Netto. And hey, if you think that's, you know, too far off, okay, then just call me back and we'll talk about something sensible for Ren Gifo. All right. Thanks, buddy. Bye-bye. End of message. Next message. Oh, hey, Perry. Yeah, it's Farhan again. Hey, those players to be named later, the list cannot include Pat Bailey, Luis Matos, or Kyle Harrison. Anybody else we could at least talk about, okay? But no Bailey, Matos, or Harrison. Please leave your message. Wow, Farhan, that was a strong offer. I am going to be very straightforward with you. I have not been offered a player of Logan Webb's caliber in this process. I don't think I will be offered a
Starting point is 00:42:44 player of Logan Webb's caliber in this process. I don't think I will be offered a player of Logan Webb's caliber in this process. I don't think that anyone else is going to offer me someone that good right now. Wanted to let you know that because I do not think we can move forward with this offer. I like it quite a bit. There's a lot of things that make me interested. I love Lamont Wade and obviously I love Webb.
Starting point is 00:42:59 We need pitching just exactly like Webb. This is just not going to happen. I can't take on salary in a trade. I can't trade away Neto. There's no chance of me getting this past ownership. I think this is one of the better offers I received, and you would have been right there with some differently shaped packages for the best total value I could get back for a Tani, and this one is just not going to work. So I truly appreciate you for sending this offer out, and let's keep in touch for other trades. Like, you know, we work well together.
Starting point is 00:43:25 I feel like this deal makes a lot of sense and I appreciate you offering it, but it's just not going to happen on my end. And I apologize. Message deleted. Next message. The Milwaukee Brewers with the part of Matt Arnold, played by Joe Sheehan of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter and the new podcast about Immaculate Grid, Immaculate Talk. First unheard message.
Starting point is 00:43:44 Terry, hey, man. It's Matt. Listen, we talked about it here. We can't give up Jackson Churio. It's just a little bit too much. But I really want Otani. He's a great fit for us coming down the stretch here. So let me tell you this. We'll give you Sal Frelick.
Starting point is 00:43:56 Don't sweat the knee. It's fine. He's playing every day. The thumb is fixed, too. He's completely healthy. You drop him in the center field, Trout moves to left for the rest of his career. You've been trying to do that for a while anyway. Give me Freelick for Otani, but here's the kicker. I'll take Rendon off your hands. You owe him $114 million for the next three years,
Starting point is 00:44:13 plus the $12 or so he's owed for the rest of this year. It's $125, $126 million you can use to rebuild this team. Look, man, we know you've got to start over. With Otani gone, you basically have Trout, and if he's healthy, Logan Ohapi, a waiver wire around him. Frelick is a core player, plus you get $125 million in the deal. So that's my offer. Sal Frelick for Otani and Rendon. Call me back, man. Please leave your message. Hey, Matt. Always good to talk to you, man. I just got to tell you, moving Rendon's a non-starter. We're not doubling down on a mistake by
Starting point is 00:44:45 getting rid of our most popular player to ship out a mistake. That's a one-way ticket to me being fired, and I don't even think Arte would approve it. So, I appreciate you guys stepping up to the plate in a monetary way for the first time in the history of your franchise. You know, always good to see that, and I hope there's more of that in the future. But, this one's not gonna
Starting point is 00:45:02 work for us. Have a good one, man. Message deleted. Next message. The Toronto Blue Jays with the part of Ross Atkins, played by Andy McCullough of the Athletic and the Roundtable podcast. First unheard message. Hey, Perry. It's me, Ross Atkins. We met at the GM meetings sometime in the past. Anyway, I'll skip the pleasantries. I'd like to make you an offer for Shohei Otani. I know you're getting a lot of calls like this, which is why you allowed a phone call from me, a general manager of another club, to go to voicemail.
Starting point is 00:45:33 I really hope I didn't accidentally call one of your brothers. Anyway, yeah, I want Otani. You know, he's the best player on the market, blah, blah, blah. Here's the offer I'm prepared to make, which I've thought about extensively and contains many players who I have definitely thought about before making this phone call. I've heard of them. I know how to pronounce their names and everything. I'll give you three of our top prospects. It's Ricky Tiedemann, who's a big lefty, Orelvis Martinez, and Leo Jimenez. The other two guys are like infielders, but might be shortstops. I don't know. So you got a big time arm, a couple up the middle players. It's a pretty good package. And I bet you're sitting there and you're saying, come on, Ross, I wasn't born on the turnip truck yesterday. You need to
Starting point is 00:46:08 do better than that. So here's what I'll do. I will throw in Yusei Kikuchi. He's got another year left on his deal. So save you the trouble trying to replace Otani in next year's rotation. You are welcome. And I can hear what you're saying right now. I know you, Perry. You're saying, now listen here, Ross, you drive a hard bargain when all I want to drive is a Mercedes-Benz. So here's what I'll do. I will take back Aaron Loop. I'll give you a little salary relief, all that good stuff. I put this deal into that website that decides if a deal is good or bad, and it says you are actually getting the best part of the deal, even though I am getting Shohei Otani. So here's the deal. Tiedemann, Martinez, Jimenez, and Kikuchi for Otani and Loop.
Starting point is 00:46:46 Who says no? I hope it isn't you, Perry, because I told Mark Shapiro I can get this done, and Rogers is really annoyed that we can't stretch a buck like the Rays can. Okay, see you at the GM meetings, wherever they are. Please leave your message. Hey, Ross. Perry Meneagian here. I think this is the right number.
Starting point is 00:47:02 Your call came from a blocked number. It's kind of strange, so this is just the one that I found for you. Appreciate you reaching out to me. I think this is a very reasonable package. Tiedemann is the guy that I'd want to start from on your farm system if I were asking for some names. Unfortunately, we did have to cut the final negotiations down to some manageable amount, and you guys were just outside, just outside the cut in the total amount offered to us. So I think when you see the final deal, you'll say, oh, yeah, that was a little past my puke point given this first offer. But I appreciate you putting your best foot forward.
Starting point is 00:47:30 Let's talk some more on some trades. If loop is something you're interested in, we can find some way to make that work. Message deleted. Next message. The Baltimore Orioles with the part of Mike Elias played by Rob Maines of Baseball Perspectives. First unheard message. Perry, I realize that replacing Otani entails replacing both a hitter and a pitcher for you, and we're prepared to help you on both fronts.
Starting point is 00:47:52 For hitter, we'll give you a choice of Kobe Mayo or Heston Kirsten, both recently rated in the top 20 midseason by Baseball Perspectives, which excludes guys with Major League Service time, both rated in the top 70 by Baseball America, which does include players with MLB service time. Either, I think, would be a good fit. Mayo's the third baseman, which would allow you to move Rendon over to DH, where he's less likely to hurt himself.
Starting point is 00:48:15 And Kirsten's been playing corner outfield and first base for us. For you, I think he'd be a good first baseman, allowing you to replace your current first baseman, who, as you know, have an OPS below 700. For a pitcher, we're prepared to offer you Seth Johnson, both rated in the top 16 in our org by both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus preseason. And the advantage is he's already had his Tommy John surgery, so you'll be able to have him ready to start the 2024 season. Let me know what you think.
Starting point is 00:48:44 Please leave your message. Hey Mike. Thanks for reaching out. Strong, strong offer. And I especially appreciate the choice between two hitters of a similar tier. My pro scouting guys are going to absolutely love him. Wait. Do I have pro scouting guys?
Starting point is 00:48:57 Look. My front office is going to absolutely love that. Unfortunately, I just want to let you know. This deal is not going to get to the finish line with us. It was a great offer. We're just targeting something more on the pitching front. As you know, that's been a bit of an issue for us over the past few years. And so we're kind of going for a top end dude, like you offered us with a bulk pitching lean behind it. That's what we're looking for. That's what we're hoping we're going to get. And it seems like a few teams can give us that. Your offer was very fair for Otani. Don't want you to feel like I'm just cutting you off, giving you a short shrift, but it's just a better fit for us elsewhere. So I appreciate it and I'll catch you later.
Starting point is 00:49:31 Message deleted. Next message. The Texas Rangers with the part of Chris Young, played by Emma Batchelary of Sports Illustrated. First unheard message. Perry, listen, it's Chris. Gonna cut to the chase. I know you really want some pitching, so here. Take Jack Leiter, take Owen White, listen, it's Chris. Gonna cut to the chase. I know you really want some
Starting point is 00:49:45 pitching. So here, take Jack Leiter, take Owen White, take Chico Orobi. It's a pretty nice trio right there. And then to round out the group, we'll give you one position player. You can take Justin Foscue. That quartet sounds like a pretty nice answer for Otani to me. And if you wanted to ask about Evan Carter, no, you didn't. Let me know what you think. Please leave your message. Chris, how's it going? I'm going to keep this short and sweet. I like the offer.
Starting point is 00:50:12 I like what you're doing. Filling our system up with good top-level arms is exactly what we need to move past the Otani era, unwillingly, but look, we're moving past it. This package makes a lot of sense to me. You are one of the finalists for this deal right now, right at the top there. I'm not crazy about Foscue. I'm not a big fan of the, I don't even know what to call it, but the powerless first basement archetype. So let's talk about maybe upgrading that name into something different here. But look, I really like the overall shape of this.
Starting point is 00:50:40 I love what you're doing. I'm very interested. Let's talk more. Another challenger appears. The Texas Rangers move on to the next round, joining the Padres, the Diamondbacks, and the Phillies. They'll all be back, but it's time to hear from the Tampa Bay Rays with the part of Eric Neander, played by RJ Anderson of CBS Sports. First unheard message. I'm trying to lead the league in trade proposal efficiency, so I'm just going to get right to my proposal for
Starting point is 00:51:05 Mr. Otani. And that would be shortstop Carson Williams, first baseman Kyle Manzardo, and infielder Laslavis Basabe. Please leave your message. Eric, always good to hear from you. And I appreciate you just getting it to me right up front. Here's the deal. Love that. Really easy to deal with you guys. And I always love trading with you, even if I don't always get the better side of it, because I kind of know what's going on with you. That being said, this offer is not going to work for us. I appreciate what you did. It's a little more hitter-centric than I was hoping to get in return for Otani. I understand the way that your system is set up right now. That makes a lot of sense for you. But when you see what the deal ends up being, you'll kind of say, oh, yeah,
Starting point is 00:51:40 kind of get it from Perry's side. So appreciate you guys as always. And I'm sure we'll do some business soon. Message deleted. Next message. The Los Angeles Dodgers with the part of Andrew Freeman, played by Eno Saris of The Athletic, The Rates and Barrels podcast, and The 3-0 Show. First unheard message.
Starting point is 00:51:57 Hey, P-Manege. It's A. Freed here from the Dodgers. Just wanted to get on the record here about Otani, hoping that you're doing well and that your owner has forgotten about that whole Ranjifo business. Because that was a bit of a snafu and we kind of dragged on, I think in the interest of time, I'm going to let my cards on the table here
Starting point is 00:52:17 and give you my best offer for Otani right off the bat. I think we've got here something like $30 million, $25, $30 million of surplus value in Otani right off the bat. I think we've got here something like a $30 million, $25, $30 million of surplus value in Otani. Everyone's got their own valuations, but if you're looking at fan graphs or drivelines values, that's something like a 50 future value guy. We're going to spice that up because I think you need a little bit more quantity, but over at the 50 side, I'm going to give you some choice. I'm going to give you the choice of Michael Bush and AAA. He hits the ball hard. You can choose his position, or if you really want to go pitching heavy on this deal, cap Gavin Stone. He's ready for the bigs. I think he just needs a tweak or two. He's going to be a great young player. Both 50s over
Starting point is 00:52:59 at Fangraphs. Then I think in order to beef this up, we're going to add, and this is going past that $30 million threshold now, we're going to add and this is going past that 30 million dollar threshold now we're going to add you give you an offer of either ryan pepio or river ryan pick your ryan both of them are double a triple a uh both have good stuff plus as the kids say and then in order to kind of really beef up the back end uh you could have a choice of a landon knack or perhaps you'd like Ricky Banasco. And so we just thought that'd be a nice arm-heavy deal to turn around the arms in your system. And they're all really close.
Starting point is 00:53:35 And so Mike Trout will have some friends to play with pretty soon. Maybe we can get Shohei to be the new Showtime in LA. And hey, we're going to end up with him anyway in pre-agency. You know what I'm saying? Please leave your message. Andrew, what's up, man? Hey, always appreciate getting a voicemail from you, baseball or otherwise, but particularly baseball.
Starting point is 00:53:58 I appreciate you guys reaching out with a trade offer. I've got to be honest with you. Some of the teams here are looking to cash in some pretty big chips and put their name on the map with otani i understand that that's not really your guys deal you're you're on the map you're the map i understand because i am in the same city ish and very much in your shadow but between arte not really wanting to trade to you guys between the fact that there's nobody here that i could really calm the fan base with as one really big hitter i'm getting back i'm'm going to have to take a respectful pass on this. Obviously, the Runjifo thing was really no one's fault but your own,
Starting point is 00:54:31 but I appreciate you being honest and upfront about it. But, yeah, this one's just not going to work for us. Have a good one, though, man. Message deleted. Next message. And finally, the Atlanta Braves with the part of Alex Anthopoulos played by Craig Goldstein of Baseball Perspectives and the Five and Dive podcast. First unheard message.
Starting point is 00:54:49 Pear Bear, it's double A. Get it? Because I work at the battery? Anyway, I need to make a call on Otani, but don't get defensive on me, okay, Perry Mason? All right, I'll workshop that one. Listen, I'm going to start with A.J. Smith-Shauver. That's two initials and two names for one guy. Maybe you can tell Artie it's two people, okay? We're also willing to include Owen Murphy and Vaughn Grissom to round out the deal. Let me know what you think. Oh, and what's this I hear about DePoto calling you Pear Bear? That was our thing. He didn't even work with... Hold on. I gotta jet. The A's are trying to trade
Starting point is 00:55:19 me their best player for a bag of beans. Later. Please leave your message. Alex, good to talk to you, man. Hey, when did you pick up all those jokes? You're more of a three jokes per minute guy usually, but you were up in the 10 or 12 range there. That was pretty impressive. As regards to the business we got to do, I hate to say it, man, but that offers is not quite going to do it.
Starting point is 00:55:37 I know these things work with the A's, you know, platter of guys who aren't quite major leaguers, maybe fringy types. They just say, oh, that's exactly what we need. Awesome. Let's get it. Do you want Sean Murphy? Shohei is not quite going to work that way.
Starting point is 00:55:50 I do like Von Grissom okay. I like AJ okay. I'm really looking for a bright and shiny name. And also, I don't really want to trade Shohei to the best team in baseball and have to hear about it from Arte for the rest of the year. So, look, I'll catch up with you later. You know how it is. I can't make this one.
Starting point is 00:56:03 Have a good one. Message deleted. Next message. The remaining contenders for Otani are the Padres, the Phillies, the Rangers, and the Diamondbacks. Everyone else, thanks for two-way playing. Now, each of our finalists will have an opportunity to sweeten their offer and be the one to win the Shohei sweepstakes. First up, AJ Preller and the Padres, who, as you will recall, offered three of their top five prospects, Jackson Merrill, Robbie Snelling, and Samuel Zavala. They also offered to take on David Fletcher in his contract. But Perry said, Preller, we need more pitching, especially pitching that will be major league ready soon. Here's Preller's response.
Starting point is 00:56:38 Next message. Perry, A.J., if you're wondering why I sound like this, it's because I've been up for 36 consecutive hours on the phone attempting to pull off history's first 29 team deal. That's right. Everybody but you in an attempt to get the high level, nearly ready pitching you desire. Didn't quite work out. Blame Sherrington. You know why.
Starting point is 00:56:58 Anyway, here's what I'm willing to do for you. I'll add Ryan Weathers. He's 23. Lots of experience. Lots of service time left. I know the results haven't been there yet, but you have plenty of time to find out. I'll add in Jackson Wolfe, who's got five times as many strikeouts as walks in AA and should be big league ready next year. And for me doing that, you're going to send me back also Brandon Drury, who I really liked
Starting point is 00:57:18 last year, despite the fact that he can't really play shortstop. That's the deal. Five guys your way, three guys my way, Otani, Fletcher, Drury. Now or never, do the right thing. Please leave your message. A 29-team trade, huh, AJ? That is aiming high, I'll give you that. Sounds like you almost got there, and that's very impressive. That said, I appreciate you stepping up with Ryan Weathers, but I think that the pitching we got elsewhere just ended up being more to our liking. I really appreciate your offer. Putting Merrill in there was really best foot forward,
Starting point is 00:57:50 but I think we got kind of two guys who are close enough to Merrill that I'm going to feel like that's a victory for us, particularly in the PR front. I really appreciate you giving me such a strong offer. Again, you're the strong offer guy. We know it here. Everybody knows it everywhere.
Starting point is 00:58:04 You're always going to be my first call whenever I'm trying to do a deal like this, but we just didn't quite get there on this one. Thanks a lot. Message deleted. Sorry, AJ. You can't win them all. Get some sleep, buddy. Our next finalist, the Philadelphia Phillies and Dave Dombrowski. No surprise to see Dave in the mix. His initial offer was a package of five prospects, Mick Abel, Griff McGarry, How You Lee, Carlos de la Cruz, and Orion Kirkring. Perry liked the depth and the bulk, but he didn't love McGarry as the second prospect in the package.
Starting point is 00:58:32 He wanted a little more ceiling to go along with Abel. Hey, Perry. Great to hear from you again. Very cool to hear. We're finalists. That's awesome. That's awesome. So I feel like our package is pretty good, but I understand we are talking about Shohei Otani, and John Middleton just keeps sending me more highlights. He would love to have Shohei Otani on the Phillies, but I'm not trying to be too irresponsible. So I'll push it one step further, willing to include Justin Crawford, our recent first-round pick,
Starting point is 00:59:00 an absolute speedster in the outfield. As long as you don't look up his ground ball rate, I think we have something here. Very excited to maybe get this deal done. Hopefully that's enough for you. But hey, if not, totally understand. I know this is a big decision for you guys to make. And if nothing happens here, totally respect it.
Starting point is 00:59:16 And we'll talk to you next summer to discuss Mike Trout. All right. Thanks, Perry. Talk to you soon. Please leave your message. Dave, if I had a dollar for every time that Trout had mentioned the city of Philadelphia, I wouldn't have to be trading Shohei Otani. So maybe that one's going to happen. I doubt it because I think he's an angel for life. But man, that guy cannot stop talking about Philadelphia.
Starting point is 00:59:38 Where was I? All right. Your offer. Justin Crawford, I really appreciate you adding a recent first round pick. That is a strong add. An offer that was a little bit ahead of your guys added someone who I like just a little bit more than Crawford. Again, really strong offer. Very upfront, very solid. And I appreciate doing business with you, Dave, even when we don't close the deal. Have a good day. Message deleted.
Starting point is 00:59:59 Well, even Trader Dave doesn't always get his man. But that creates an opportunity for our next finalist, the Texas Rangers. Chris Young's opening offer, a quartet of prospects, Jack Leiter, Owen White, Takoa Roby, and Justin Foscue. Perry was intrigued, but he's not a big Foscue fan. Can Chris Young do better to complete the quartet and the Otani trade? Next message. Perry, glad to hear you're calling back. I gotta say, I thought Justin Fosckey was a pretty nice piece of this package.
Starting point is 01:00:25 Great contact skills. He's showing a little more power in AAA than he did in AA. But just for you, just because I'm really, really serious about this and I want to make this work, I'm going to do something that probably seems a little bit crazy. I'm going to change this offer to keep those three pitchers, Leiter, White, and Roby. Great set of arms there. And then for the last player, I'm going up to Sebastian Walcott. And that's it.
Starting point is 01:00:49 Take it or leave it. But Leiter, White, Roby, Walcott. There you go. Please leave your message. Chris, I appreciate you stepping up to the plate in the exact way I wanted you to increase your offer. That's perfect. Couldn't have drawn it up better myself.
Starting point is 01:01:03 I have to tell you, unfortunately, that your package was very close to what another team offered. And if your team just played in a different division, I think you may have won it. But it's just not quite enough to get it over ownership's heads. Thank you very much for this aggressive offer for Otani. Message deleted. And then there was one. A lone suitor stands between us and Otani not getting traded at all. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Mike Hazen, whose initial offer was Drew Jones, Brandon Fott, and Yumin Lin. Perry said, I like that trio, but I need another arm. Can the Diamondbacks get it done? Let's find out. Next message.
Starting point is 01:01:38 Hey Perry, sorry I missed your call. You might have thought I'd be waiting by the phone in case you call back, but I actually got pulled away by the roof repair people. The roof here at Chase Field, you might have heard, has been non-retractable for a few years. It's just sort of been a roof like most of them. And they're still going to try to get that going again. But the main thing they were telling me today was the roof is not a threat to collapse. They actually told me that like eight or nine times. Anytime I had a question, they would just immediately reply looking straight into my eyes. The roof is not a threat to collapse. So very comforting.
Starting point is 01:02:07 In terms of the trade, I get it. You need one more big name to really make this pop off the page. I know exactly who you're looking for. Dre Jameson might need elbow surgery, but he also might not. And I think that's the narrow band of hope in which the Angels thrive. That would mean that you would get Drew Jones, Dre Jamison, Brandon Fott, and Yumin Lin. That's four players, one Otani. We're really putting everything we have into this because we have a chance to get into
Starting point is 01:02:30 the NL West race this year. We have a chance to make ourselves matter again. And we could also keep Shohei Otani from the Giants or the Dodgers, which is really just as important when you think about it. All right. Thanks, Perry. Let me know. Please leave your message.
Starting point is 01:02:46 Mike, thank you for getting back to me so quickly. I'm not going to mince words. Dre Jameson, that's an impressive addition. Like you said, might need elbow surgery, might not, but that's a risk that we are willing to take in an attempt to develop better pitching. And I'm happy to say, thanks to that, we are accepting your offer for Shohei Otani. So just to run through it one more time, we got Drew Jones. We got Brandon
Starting point is 01:03:05 Fott, we got Dre Jameson and Yumin Lin. It's a nice four-player package. You got two premium top-end guys, two nice arm fillers. I'm feeling very good about this one, and I'm very happy to be doing business with you. Best of luck in the playoffs this year, and I'm assuming you're going to make it Shohei's as good as advertised. Oh, and Mike, one thing. I got to get the go-ahead from Arte on this. You know how it is. Just a formality. All right. Bye.
Starting point is 01:03:34 Arte, Perry here. Just finished a trade talk marathon. We all sat down and really worked it out behind closed doors and tried not to negotiate in the press. When you have to do a deal in the press, then everybody starts speculating on, you know, what about this? Who's winning? Who's losing? And those kind of things. Yeah, we managed to keep the trade talks quiet. Don't worry. But I do think we have a winner. The Diamondbacks offered us two premium prospects. Great pitcher, great hitter.
Starting point is 01:04:01 They're both really prestigious. Like, I know we hate to trade Shohei, but this is the kind of deadline deal that people will remember. Wait, you don't want to trade him? Obviously thought about that a lot. And when I went in the process, I was doing more of an investigative thing.
Starting point is 01:04:21 But I just going through the process, I just started getting cold feet. What? How come? I don't look at my legacy. I really always look at the fans. What are we doing to make sure the fans have a great experience and the fans are proud of the team that we put on the field? Trading him might help us put a better team on the field long term.
Starting point is 01:04:42 But if true, we would lose more right now. I really enjoy competition. I think the thrill of victory is part of the American dream. I've been told before that sometimes losing is a great teacher. I'm still not so sure about that. Yeah, I'm with you there. If that were true, we would have learned a lot. I don't want to be in a situation where we, you know, there's a lot of things that we do.
Starting point is 01:05:07 We try to not, you know, get into a situation where the fans are being affected because we're trying to do our business. I get it. I mean, I did just spend a lot of time talking to teams for no reason, but I get it. Shohei is special. He's a great teammate. That's an important thing. I mean, he's great with the other players. He's a team player, great with the fans, and obviously, if not the best, he's one of the very best players that is playing today. And maybe the best to watch. Baseball is a lot like life,
Starting point is 01:05:38 and there's just a lot of things that are happening. And for us, when we try to bring people to the park, we want them to come and be entertained and bring their families and have an enjoyable evening and leave the rest of the life behind okay so you're sure we're we're not doing the deal as of right now i'm happy with. This time I'd like to welcome Angels owner Artie Moreno and Shohei Ohtani to the podium. Hey, don't forget Angels GM Perry Manajian, but Artie, you can go first. Please welcome Angels owner Artie Moreno. I'd like to thank all the Angel fans.
Starting point is 01:06:38 Thanks for coming out. Thanks for all your support. Really would like to thank my wife, my better 90%, because she hung with us all the way through the negotiation. Everybody was sort of hanging in for probably the last 30 or 40 days. They spent a lot of time working. You know, we were working pretty much 24-7 on this deal. Some of us were. But it was a very happy time of the year for all of us.
Starting point is 01:07:08 Debatable. Very natural. I was communicating with him almost on a daily basis. We started looking at players available in my category. Pitching, any of the holes we thought we had. So I told him, no matter what happens, I want those teams prepared to play and win. So I just really wanted to make sure that if I changed my mind,
Starting point is 01:07:34 that we were okay to go. I'm kind of relieved that he changed his mind. At least it ought to be the GM who traded Otani. This is an exciting time to celebrate all of his accomplishments on and off the field. We all get an opportunity to watch him and his teammates play the game we all love. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome to the podium, number 17, Shohei Otani. はい、私の名前はショウヘイ・オタニまずはじめにエンジェルスの皆さんに感謝の気持ちを伝えたいなと思います オーナーのアルテモレノさん、オーナーです。
Starting point is 01:08:29 本当にたくさんの人たちに支えられて、今日このメジャーリーグのスタートラインに立つことができて本当に感謝していますし、これからエンジェルスの一員としてファンの皆さんとともに優勝を目指して頑張っていきたいなと思っています。 I want to win the championship with was a roller coaster of a time. It really was. You know what I was thinking as I was listening to those trade offers? What? Now every time I hear the car sing Just What I Needed, I'm going to think of this podcast because I don't mind you coming here and wasting all my time, especially after something as thrilling as all of those trade offers.
Starting point is 01:09:23 Could you imagine? It must feel so... on the one hand, you would probably feel, I don't want to use the word impotent because that feels personal, but like you would probably feel disappointed if you're the angel's front office and this is where you're at, right? Where you're thinking, are we going to,
Starting point is 01:09:41 we're really going to move this guy? We're going to, we're done. We're saying we're gonna we're done we're saying we're done you know and how long will we be done for might be done for a while right like that would feel that would feel bad right um but it would feel nice to be so popular right and to be offered such a a bushel a peck a veritable cornucopia of great players, prospects, and big leaguers, candidly, right? Yeah. That would feel good.
Starting point is 01:10:10 And then at the end, to think that you'd arrived at the mountaintop and then it gets pulled out from under you. I know. But Ben, your consolation prize when Artie's just like, no, I can't do it. You get to hang out with shohei otani for another couple months like yeah it's not the worst i am i am spent you know yeah sort of win-win i guess right you get some incredible package of prospects back that you think is worth parting with shohei otani or you get the greatest prize of all continued time with shohei otani i
Starting point is 01:10:42 mean like the greatest prize of all is to play meaningful October baseball with him. But absent that prize, which isn't, as you've noted, isn't totally out of reach. It's comfortably out of range, put it that way. Like, you know, you're sitting and you're like, ugh, I need to get up from my chair in order to reach that. Like, that's where they're at right now in terms of postseason. But not totally out of reach, but not where they're at.
Starting point is 01:11:08 But, you know, like Otani is not a bad consolation prize from the ultimate great prize. But you can make the case that some of the rival executives did make the case that this would help you get back to contention, real contention sooner. contention, real contention sooner, right? Because if Otani is likely leaving, then obviously there is a case to be made that it benefits you in the long term, despite the sacrifice of trading this incredible player, the most magnetic, the most mesmerizing, in the middle of one of the most impressive seasons of all time, right?
Starting point is 01:11:42 So this was, as you said, a rollercoaster ride, a real twist at the end there. Artie Moreno, not known for changing his mind about important decisions pertaining to the franchise. I mean, usually he sets a course and he sticks to it, right? He's not someone who flip-flops on major decisions like this. So out of character for him, for one thing. That was probably the greatest upset of this. So out of character for him, for one thing, that was probably the greatest
Starting point is 01:12:06 upset of this. I guess, aside from the fact that so much of these trade talks were conducted via voicemail, which I honestly wasn't aware that that still happened. I thought actually that text was the primary medium for communication among baseball executives at this point. Generally, right. Yeah. Yeah. You would think that, I mean, maybe he was just blowing up to such an extent that he had to send these people to voicemail because he was talking to someone else at the time. Right. But the amount of phone tag being played here, I don't know if this is indicative of the Angels' ills as an organization. Do they
Starting point is 01:12:42 need another phone line? Does Perry need another assistant? They got to get that sorted. But people weren't picking up his return calls either. It's an epidemic, apparently. A very sort of old school way of conducting these trade talks, which was convenient because it enabled us to listen in. Yeah. It was thoughtful of them to be like, you know, someone somewhere, they might want a little podcast about this. Yeah. I'm going to leave it in a form that allows for them to do that. I don't want to shatter the illusion of this exercise. No, you got to keep kayfabe here.
Starting point is 01:13:19 Everyone thinks this was real. Yeah. So I, you know, I don't, I don't want to ruin it for anyone, and I don't want anyone among our many friends who were so generous with their time to feel as if I didn't appreciate their performance, because let me tell you, all top-notch. If I'm an Academy voter, I can't pick amongst them. I'd be hard-pressed.
Starting point is 01:13:42 That said, I thought that when we look back 11 years from now on special moments in the show, as it goes into its next phase, Petriolo's AJ is like really up there. Yes. Yes. Really like, just kiss. He really captured the character. Yeah. I told everyone, feel free to go method with this. Indulge your inner Jeremy Strong. And some of our guests were more loquacious than others. Others just got down to business, which I think that mirrors the different trade talk styles of actual executives. Agreed.
Starting point is 01:14:20 We're going for verisimilitude here. Yeah, really added to the authenticity of the entire hour of radio. Petriello committed to the bit to such an extent that he came back with a sore throat authentically that then became part of his character. So he did capture the essence of AJ, who I'm sure is disappointed to have just come up short for Otani, but then everyone did. And I appreciated the variety of the offers, right? You had some of them that were just, hey, here are blue chip guys. You know, we've talked about how deadline rentals, they don't seem to bring back the
Starting point is 01:14:59 blue chippers the way that they used to, but Shohei Otani is the exception to that, of course. And so some pretty big names were bandied about here. Others went with more of the bulk approach, the fantasy baseball, hey, I'll give you a whole bunch of guys. How does that suit you? Just the poo-poo platter of prospects, right? And others tried to flex their financial muscle and said hey we'll take back anthony rendon or we'll take back david fletcher we'll take back aaron loop even yeah so there was a lot of like that you ended on him you know like of all the of all the contracts that they might be like can we wiggle our way out of this they They're like, we gotta move him. So a lot of creativity. I did think it
Starting point is 01:15:49 was intriguing and potentially pretty realistic that the teams that were making the competitive offers are not necessarily the teams that are favored to sign Shohei Otani long-term. If you're the Diamondbacks, this would probably be the time to go after him, right? You're in a tight race for the division. You've got division rivals, the Dodgers, the Giants would probably be in the Otani sweepstakes this winter. So make your move now. Go get him. Go support this surprising, young, fun, compelling squad you've got. If you're the Dodgers and you're kind of the consensus favorite to sign him as a free agent,
Starting point is 01:16:20 then much as he might help you this season, you'd probably be a little less inclined to double tip. You're going to pay sticker price, so it might be tough to give up top prospects too. And Preller and the Padres, they're doing their own thing. But the Rangers, the Phillies, the Diamondbacks, these teams are in tight races. They need those marginal win upgrades in the regular season, not just what Otani could potentially bring you in the playoffs. They've got to get to the playoffs first. So you would think it would be those bubble teams potentially that would be most motivated to add him and that in some cases would have the prospect capital to potentially pull it off, but ultimately stymied by an ownership level decision, which has happened. Again, already not known to meddle in baseball operations
Starting point is 01:17:00 decisions. So again, I mean, look, it's an unusual situation, right? He's usually hands off. It's usually just, hey, I hire my baseball people. I let them do their thing. I stay out of it, right? In this case, he felt he had to get involved and justifiably so, right? And I mean, look, I had to recuse myself from this exercise because of my fondness for Shohei Otani. You know, the winner's curse is a thing, right? And so often the team that signs someone or manages to trade for someone, they're the team that maybe gave up the most, maybe even gave up too much in a pure sort of surplus value calculation. You could say that they got a little irrationally exuberant. But in this case, I mean, as curses go, landing Shohei Otani, that's a pretty good one. I'd be happy to be
Starting point is 01:17:51 cursed like that if I were a baseball team. Yeah. Look, I think that if I'm ranking the Otani-related lines likely to work their way into an executive's obituary, for instance. I have bad news for Perry, which is that I think that trading Otani would will be a thing that probably gets mentioned. You know, many, many years from now, I'm not, I'm not forecasting an exact date, but you know, like that probably get mentioned. And I think being the GM that signs him to his next contract, likely on that list, I do think trading for him is probably third, right? But in terms of the feeling you're going to have in the room, when you put the phone down and say, you know, we got him, we got him. You're going to feel a feeling and people around you are going to be going,
Starting point is 01:18:45 yeah, we did it. And I don't think it'll be reserved. I don't think it'll be qualified. I don't think they're going to sit there and go, oh, boy, gave up Jackson Merrill. That's not going to happen. And I don't say that to knock any of the prospects that would move for Otani. They're going to get to write their own story, although it will be in their obituary that they were traded for him probably.
Starting point is 01:19:09 Right. Yes. Am I overestimating the amount of detail related to baseball that is in baseball folks' obituaries? I don't, maybe I'm, maybe I'm off the mark there. Could be true. Yeah. Well, look, none of these prospects who hypothetically could have been traded would come back to burn you in the sense that they would then turn into Shohei Otani or surpass Shohei Otani. No, almost certainly not. or however we calculate value in the postseason. But it's not like you're going to end up with someone who surpasses him, right? So it's not going to come back to haunt you in that sense, I don't think. And we were robbed, I guess, of the chance to see whether Shohei Otani could have won
Starting point is 01:19:56 the American League MVP awards despite being traded to the National League. And I guess also he could have made a run at the NL Awards or some NL Awards also after the deadline if he had gone to an NL team. I guess we'll never know unless it actually happens in real life. So, I mean, really, this was so much fun, so exciting. I feel spent at this point. I have listened to every Artie Moreno interview out there. He doesn't do a lot, fortunately for me, but I've listened to them all. And the excitement of listening to, in some cases, years-old interviews with Artie Moreno and getting to peruse all of these brilliant trade proposals, we might as well just call off the actual deadline here.
Starting point is 01:20:41 Like, the dry run was exciting enough. I don't know that we need the real thing, especially if Shohei Otani talks do not progress IRL. Ben, I'm sorry. I, um, look, I don't want to overreact. I don't want to be overly fixated on it, but we, we will take some deadline clicks, excuse you, sir. We'll take those off anyone's hands who has them to spare but yeah i mean being able to get real insight into the offers you know sometimes we get a nice little tick tock but normally only the trades that go through um we're skeptical of the well we you know, we tried. We tend to be skeptical of those stories, and we don't often get specific names,
Starting point is 01:21:29 though sometimes we do. So in that respect, the real deadline will pale in comparison. But in terms of the hamster wheel turning at Fangraphs.com, no one worry, we're going to be there for you on that day. And we will write up every trade, both the very big and the very small although they'll all feel small in comparison to otani if he does in fact yes move i wonder how many pieces i will manage to assign if otani moves yeah very admirable of
Starting point is 01:21:57 you to prioritize traffic in your capacity as managing editor of fan graphs over your personal sleep schedule let's say. Oh, yeah. I mean, sure. But I don't do it alone. That's the thing, Ben. It's a team effort. We all come together to help edify you, the reader.
Starting point is 01:22:15 Just like this podcast episode, in fact. Yeah. Yeah. And rarely do you get a peek behind the curtain unless someone hacks ground control and leaks it to deadspin this is the next best thing right so we're not encouraging hacking no absolutely we're not we're not facilitating or suggesting crimes um we're just saying that uh if you want to tell someone about
Starting point is 01:22:39 it that's fine you know right yes so go. You can access the Google form. Maybe you did before you listened to this. Maybe you'll be biased now, but you can weigh in on what you think the most appealing offers were. And look, it would not be the first time that we've discussed something on the podcast that has subsequently come true. So perhaps a trade actually will happen and one of these teams will be involved and there will be a similar package. And then everyone will look back at how we gamed this out and say, thank you for this informative preview of the Chohe Otani trades that actually transpired.
Starting point is 01:23:14 I feel so prepared for that now that I've listened to 20 offers on the Effectively Wild podcast. Do you think, Ben, that they'll say that this podcast was just what they needed? I would certainly hope so. No, I've got to go listen to the cars. Maybe we'll do this again sometime, you know, the next time the best player in baseball who's a once-in-a-century two-way guy is on the market at the deadline. But thanks to everyone for listening. And just because it's a very special episode doesn't mean that we don't have to end the way that we always end, which is with the Future Blast. For those of you who may be joining us for the first time, we do a little segment called the Future Blast. It's a successor to a previous segment called the Past Blast, where we looked back into baseball history.
Starting point is 01:24:01 to a previous segment called The Past Blast, where we looked back into baseball history. Here, we look forward into baseball's future, sort of like we were when we were trying to game out Otani trades. And we bring you a little view of what baseball might look like in the year that corresponds to the number of the episode you're listening to. So, this Future Blast comes from Rick Wilber, who is an award-winning writer, editor, and college professor and has been described as the dean of science fiction baseball. It also comes to you from 2036.
Starting point is 01:24:31 Rick writes, oldsters and youngsters with the AI problem seemingly settled. There's some backstory here that you've got to catch up on if you haven't been following the future blast. Baseball returned to something akin to normal in 2036. The big news was that Ronald Acuna Jr., who had spent 17 years with the Atlanta Braves slash Freedom, four times been MVP and 14 times an All-Star, signed a 10-year contract for $600 million at age 37 to become a Los Angeles Dodger. This surely is the future. Now, maybe there's been inflation maybe 600 million doesn't buy you as much in 2036 as it would now but a 10-year deal for a 37 year old yeah they're banking on him being the next julio franco but maybe he will be his amazing 2034 mvp season that
Starting point is 01:25:20 so pleased his millions of be there followers with 39 homers and a.395 batting average was followed with a solid short season in 2035. Remember, there was work stoppage that ended his contract extension and led to his move to the Dodgers where he went on to have continued success, finishing second in the MVP voting to his teammate, Shohei Otani.
Starting point is 01:25:40 Hey, look at that. It all comes full circle. Who at age 41 had another extraordinary season on the mound with a 23-5 record and backed that up with a superb season at the plate, hitting.325 with 53 homers as he ended his contractual obligations to the Dodgers and considered retirement or a return to Japan for a celebratory farewell season with the Hokkaido Nipponham Fighters. At the other end of the age spectrum, 16-year-old Demarcus Olivier graduated early from Palo Alto High School and was drafted in the first round by the San Francisco Giants. Olivier had played third base and been a relief pitcher as he led the Vikings baseball team to two state titles as a junior and senior, hitting.553 as a junior and a remarkable.610 his senior year. He was also on the football team as a wide receiver and was an all-state point guard in basketball. A straight-A student and National Merit scholar specializing in neuroplasticity,
Starting point is 01:26:33 Olivier had baseball or basketball or both scholarship offers from Stanford, Notre Dame, Duke, Michigan, Cal Berkeley, USC, and UCLA, among others, but decided to head straight toward the major leagues because, he said, I can always go back to school during the offseason and after my baseball career is over. My goal is to help stroke and brain trauma victims recover their physical and mental abilities. A social media star with millions of followers, his future looked bright. He signed for $11 million and was assigned to the Eugene Emeralds of the High A Northwest League, where he hit.398 with 28 home runs before moving up to the AA Richmond Flying Squirrels, where he turned 17 on July 19th
Starting point is 01:27:09 and went on to finish the season with a combined.387 average and 43 home runs. He registered for fall classes at Stanford as an advanced standing sophomore, and he looks certain to make the spring training roster for the big club as he balanced academics with baseball. So the kids are all right. The future is bright for Shohei Otani and others.
Starting point is 01:27:28 All right, that will do it for today and for this week. Thanks to you all for listening, and thanks so much to all of our guests and pretend baseball executives today. We sort of stuck with national writers for this exercise, and we ended up with a very rich roster, alphabetically by team, Hannah Kaiser, Andy McCullough, Craig Goldstein, Joe Sheehan, Ginny Searle, Eno Saris, Eric Langenhagen, Bailey Freeman, Zach Buchanan,
Starting point is 01:27:50 Michael Bauman, Mark Simon, Rob Maines, Mike Petriello, Jordan Schusterman, Emma Batchelieri, RJ Anderson, Jake Mintz, Dan Szymborski, Louis Paulus, and Zach Cram. And of course, for the final bow, last but not least, our leading man, Ben Clemens. Couldn't have come up with better compatriots for this simulation, this war game, by which I mean Wins Above Replacement. If you enjoyed this, please let us know. One way you can let us know
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Starting point is 01:29:12 Effectively Wild on Twitter at EWPod and you can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at r slash effectively wild. I handled the editing and production duties today. Didn't want to inflict my mad vision on anyone else. We hope you have a wonderful weekend and we will be back to talk to you early next week. I say I waste my time Tracking all these deadlines
Starting point is 01:29:49 But it's here I found my kind We're all effectively wild

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