Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2048: Calling Up All Angels

Episode Date: August 19, 2023

Baseball Prospectus’ editor-in-chief Craig Goldstein joins the show to discuss the surging Dodgers (5:26) and what led to their recently concluded win streak, the call-ups of Masyn Winn and Nolan Schanuel (28:07), and the optimal timing of the trade deadline and the draft (44:43), and why Craig doesn’t want to move it back. Plus, Meg […]

Joey Manessis, walk-off three-run digger. Stop it. Walk-off three-run digger. Stop it. Walk-off three-run shot. Oh my god. Meg, he's the best player in baseball. Effectively Wild. Hello and welcome to episode 2048 of Effectively Wild, a Fangraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters.

I'm Meg Reilly of Fangraphs, and joining me for the last time before Ben comes back is a guest co-host. I'm joined by Craig Goldstein, Editor-in-Chief of Baseball Perspectives. Craig, how are you? I'm good. I thought for a half second there. It was just for the last time. I didn't know I wasn't coming back ever. I got halfway through it, and I was like, oh, I wasn't coming back ever. I got halfway through it and I was like, oh, I gotta, yeah, I was like, I gotta, I gotta take an exit and then get back on the freeway and, and chart a new course. Cause that made it sound like we were not going to be friends anymore, which is ridiculous.

I mean, Hey, it's your podcast. I'm not, you know, I'm, I'm at your mercy here. I just, I didn't know we hadn't talked about that ahead of time. I thought, oh, okay. Finding out the information here. You're like kind of rude to do it on mic. Maybe I'm just jealous of your title relative to mine. Well, I think you can make it up.

I don't know. I could, you know, most people, when I do like pod appearances or radio, they'll be like, Fangraphs, editor-in-chief, and I'm like, yeah, leave it in. I mean, if it helps at all, I can recount the story in which i was just introduced on a i believe a upstate new york radio station as craig rangoon editor-in-chief of baseball prospectus so yeah it was when my my display name was craig rangoon yeah and they they messaged me and like they they dm me and said like hey would you come on and i was like sure but they said craig would you come on and i was like it's craig by the way

and so then they were like got it and i was like okay cool and then as i had to not laugh as yeah they introduced me as craig ring goon how did you uh pivot pivot out of that like oh i just went with it i'm just craig ring gooon to the people of upstate New York. So there's a bunch of baseball fans in Syracuse being like, I mean, we didn't think that that was his name, but I guess we're going with it. Yeah, pro tip to radio producers,

it is good to engage with the Twitter for a second and be like, is this this person's actual name? Do they tweet ever? Like the number of people I've heard about, heard about this secondhand, like the number of people who will say when Eric does a radio hit, like follow Eric on Twitter. And I'm like, you could do that and see no tweets at all. Push that follower count up. You know, you're not getting anything out of it, but no, but like, you know, but like you know who why not who who does who does it hurt really so i just saw you which was so nice we

we were supposed to hang out at winter meetings after not seeing one another since 2019 2019 also winter meetings yeah i guess it was winter meetings, yeah. We had drinks at a hotel bar. It was nice. San Diego. And we were supposed to hang out in San Diego again, and then I got the flu. And I was like, I'd much rather be drinking with Craig than having the flu. I did drink.

Yeah, well, good. You know, someone should have a tipple while I was spiking a fever that was concerningly high. Then we got to share some drinks at Jordan's wedding this past weekend, which was great. So fun. It was fantastic. Got to get to know Columbus a little bit. I mean, me more than you because you have children. I had never been.

I'd never been either. It was nice. It was nice. It was nice. Hotel right across from a huge mall. I was like, this is, we're like in the suburbs. Oh, yeah. Which like I'm from Bethesda. That's not a that's not judgment. That's yeah. You know, I felt at home is what I'm saying. I was like, hey, you know, Ben's going to be in Sweden and we come on the podcast. And then this morning I realized that there was very little baseball yesterday.

Just like a real dearth of new action. But I think we've come up with a good agenda. I think people are going to enjoy hearing you engage with your Dodgers in a way that doesn't involve Joe Kelly like ruining your mood. So we're going to do a little Dodger talk because those Dodgers, Craig, I don't know if you know this, but they've been really winning lately. In fact, to the exclusion of losing, at least for the last, what, 11 games? Yeah, this one goes to 11, as they like to say. So we're going to talk about that. We're going to talk about a couple of recent promotions because we have some big league

promotions, one of which involves a top prospect and one of which involves a very recently drafted guy who plays for the Angels. And then you're going to rant about the trade deadline. And then we're going to answer some emails and do the future blasts. And then we're going to get out of here. So why don't we start with the Dodgers because well let me let me tell you what my impression of your impression of this team was around the trade deadline because my sense was that you were miserable and even though the day before the deadline, the Dodgers were, well, they were off on the Monday, but the last, you know, the last going into deadline day, they were 59 and 45, right?

So they were leading the NL West and you seemed miserable. You just seemed like you were not having a great time and then and then they traded for joe kelly and i was like do the dodgers time to mute craig i was like do they hate him like does is there a person in their ops group who's just like you know we really gotta stick it to this guy from bethesda because um he Bethesda because he's getting too comfortable. Despite my misery. Right, despite your misery. They were like, this is like a normal background level of misery for Craig.

We got to up the ante here a little bit. You know what will do it? Joe Kelly and his tremendous stuff. So they traded for Joe Kelly. They brought in Lance Lynn. And then they have since then lost one game. They have lost one game. They dropped a game against the Reds that they lost, this is the Sunday immediately before the deadline. And that Saturday, August 5th game against the Padres, it's just been a lot of winning for them. Yeah. I think I've been less unhappy during that time.

Yeah. I haven't seen you complain about that. Go figure. Yeah yeah so the context you mentioned the reds game so they just had i think two home series against the blue jays and the reds yes and i think they lost four of those six games yes they did they lost both those they might have been a four game series in there i don't remember but they lost both those series and so i i was pretty unhappy. And this is all in the context of acknowledging that this is a very good team. I think Mike Petriello just ran an article about Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts possibly being

the best 1-2 in a lineup ever. As a fan, I am extraordinarily blessed, but my default mode is, like, how can I be unhappy? Or, like, what can I be unhappy about kind of thing. So I don't mean it. It's all very first-world problems. four years or so is how hard they have pushed to win the world series or to, to create like the best team possible. And the 111 win Dodgers. I, I really, I spent a lot of time last year. Like it was, it was tough to, to see them that iteration of this team lose, but I really

spent a lot of time appreciating how good it was. Like just to have a team that won that many games is, is so rare and it was so cool. And this year, and I understand why it's not surprising to me, but this year they took a step back from that model. And I don't think that they necessarily went in saying let's be worse because none of it matters. I think they want to win the division. I think they want to have one of those first round buys for the playoffs. I don't think they were

just like, anything can happen. We're taking a step back to save money. I think they were trying to save money to save money when they try and sign Shohei Otani next year, if they do that. So I get that. There was a reasonable game plan. I don't actually take issue with the game plan, but I don't like teams intentionally being worse either you know what i mean and this team was in many ways like that gavin lux got hurt and that's unfortunate but like then they just said yeah we're gonna do miguel rojas like we're not only did we acquire miguel rojas we extended him for a year that's right i. I always forget that, like, this is not a one-and-done for them.

They're like, we want to be in the Miguel Rojas business for a little while. Yes, exactly. Yeah. And look, I will say this. As soft factor as it is, like, he really does appear to be, like, a tremendous clubhouse guy,

and maybe that's what they valued. And I know the whole 2020 thing but like the players seem to value him in that role you know what i mean and so you know it's it's working out in that it's all working out right now especially in the middle of an 11 game win streak but at that time having lost four of six games to playoff contenders. I mean, the Blue Jays, I guess they're both kind of right on the fringe right now, right? I guess it seemed like, okay, now you're playing good teams and you're kind of losing games to them. And there are some very obvious issues with this team. I think the Lance Lynn acquisition meant a lot. It meant they could option Emmitt

Sheehan, who skipped AAA entirely. And I thought he was pretty good, given the context. But they needed to be better. They needed guys to eat more innings. They needed, essentially, Lance Lynn. I think what was just tough about their deadline acquisitions was they acquired, in one way of looking at it, four of the worst players in Major League Baseball. what was just tough about their kind of deadline acquisitions was they acquired in, in one way of looking at it, four of the worst players in major league baseball. Right. Like,

yeah, it's, it's overstating it. And, and I look, I didn't think Lance Lynn was as bad as he had been. I didn't think Joe Kelly was as bad as he had been. Um,

and you could see why, why there were reasons to think they'd be better, but you know, Ahmed Rosario can always hit lefties. He was still doing that despite, I think baseball reference had him at a replacement level guy. We had him around a win, which is still not good. And Enrique Hernandez was, I mean, just legitimately bad

from every kind of viewpoint. And they've, I think, benefited mostly from a lot of regression. Enrique, they maybe have worked, he's talked about changing his swing and trying to undo some bad habits that he had gotten into. So maybe you give them some credit there. I think a lot of this is just regression and they filled some right holes. But look, they knew that they wanted to get Eduardo Rodriguez even after these acquisitions. I don't think they would tell you, we think this is a complete team as it is. It's operating that way right now. But they also, right after those two series, what started this win streak was a series against Oakland.

I don't know if you have this schedule, but it was a very soft schedule. It's like Oakland, Colorado. Yeah, so they had three against Oakland starting the day of the deadline. Then they had a four-game set against San Diego in San Diego. They had two games in Arizona and then four in Colorado. Or excuse me, four against Colorado in LA. So they didn't have to worry about how weird cores can be sometimes. And then this most recent set was against Milwaukee.

And the Arizona two-game set, like Arizona was, I think, in a playoff spot at that time, but like were in their free zone. Yeah. It hasn't been great for them lately. Yeah. And it just has not been the toughest of schedules, which, look, you need to beat the teams you need to beat.

I'm not trying to take anything away from them there. But, you know, Jeffrey Paternostro, who you know, our lead prospect writer, has a bit that he does with me calling them the Dodgers. Throughout the year, it's mostly been the most annoying 95-win team in baseball. And it kind of moderates up and down. Uh, it's been as low as I think 92 and now it's a 99, whatever they're on pace for the bit being like, we know they're good. Like it's, it's not, there's never a point at which this was like a bad team, but they, they, for as good as

they are, they can be really frustrating really frustrating yeah and that's where my misery comes through and the other part of it i just need to to tack on is that i really like i don't i don't have anything to say when it's good because like it there's no way of looking good like when your team i mean i i celebrate or whatever but like i don't need to publicly celebrate because it's just kind of it can look obnoxious and I try not to be that. I say that. I try to be obnoxious in other capacities. Look, I think that you want to, when you're being obnoxious, it's better to be intentionally

obnoxious, right? Yeah. Yeah. And so when things are bad, that's when I comment on things that I think could be better. But like, what am I going to say during 11? They're doing everything good. I can't really complain about it. Yeah, I mean, you definitely want your favorite team

to just win as many games as they can. And you want them to win against less talented competition, it would be heartening to me that the games against Oakland, those were not close games. Some of the games against Colorado were a little bit closer in a way that I imagine you found quite irritating, but not dramatically so. And I think you want to see them win. You want to see them win against teams that are less talented

because those wins count. And there's so much value in getting a first-round buy that if you can avoid having to play in that wildcard series, I think particularly given some of the pitching vulnerabilities you talked about with LA, there's a lot of value in that i really liked the lynn move not just because like you know you want if you think that their young guys are are good and i think we all do it's not just that they're like you know skipping levels and have only been up like they're all going to be pushing up against their innings pitched from previous seasons, right? And so, you know, and Kershaw is back,

but he is always an injury risk. Like, if you can just get reinforcement into that rotation so that you have a guy who's reliably taking the ball, I think that that redounds to the rest of your rotation to their benefit. Cause you know, then. And bullpen for sure. Right. And right. You know, you acquire Lance Lynn so that your Joe Kelly acquisition just maybe doesn't see a lot of time,

you know, that's just like good. It's just good management right there. So yeah, like the Dodgers, I, I really wish I do. I just really do wish that I had had the courage of my convictions when we did our staff predictions, Craig, because I was like, maybe I'll have the Mets just miss the playoffs and I'll put the Dodgers at the... I didn't do it.

I mean, I think I picked them to go to the postseason, and I think I picked the Dodgers to— No, I didn't pick them to win the division. I picked the Padres. But I wish I had some courage. I lacked it. I just pulled mine up. I picked the Cardinals to win the Central, so I feel really, really strong about that.

I also picked the Yankees to win the AL East. So that's going very well. I think I did too. I don't remember. It's funny that I don't remember because I talked about these with Ben Clemens on literally Tuesday. But you know, that was so long ago. Who could remember such a thing? So you're feeling better about your Dodgers. You're feeling kind of settled. I mean, like that lineup is just stupid. So you're feeling better about your Dodgers. You're feeling kind of settled. I mean, like that lineup is just stupid. So even with the lineup has been what's carried them all season. They do.

They are doing this thing with J.D. Martinez. I don't know how closely you might have followed this or not. Doesn't he have a little like groin pole or hammy pole or something? Isn't he? Hasn't he pulled? It's not. I don't think it's a pull. He has discomfort. And they don't really know what it is.

They gave him an epidural. Oh. I believe when they were in Arizona. They gave him an epidural. And he took some time off. And he seemed to be feeling better. But basically, he feels fine often. And then sometimes when he goes to do things

he feels discomfort and so he came down with a case of being in his 30s basically yeah yeah i mean let me tell you how much i identify with this with this uh but yeah he goes to like take swings before the game and and he's like yeah no i can't okay and the dodgers i don't know if you've noticed this i've talked about it online a couple times but like the dodgers don't seem they were one of the early like pioneers of manipulating the il with pitching and now they seem to just think that the the IL is not real. Like, they're not putting him on the... He missed...

I think he missed, like, seven days. But they're like, no, we're not going to put him on the IL. We're not going to do that. And it's like, well, it's like a 10-day IL. Right. I was just about to say, so what you're saying is this is like when we used to make fun of the Mets for being like, guys, it's literally a 10-day IL. Just put him on the... Just do it and bring up another guy. Yeah, well, exactly.

And I understand the idea is like, whoever they bring up is probably not really going to play. So it just doesn't matter that much. But it's a lot like the Mets. I mean, I said this too, like the Dodgers, they don't get enough flack for it. They love to say like yeah he'll probably he might not even need an iostin and then it's clayton kershaw was like we're gonna see how he

feels on his throw day uh and then it was like well he needed a shot but he still might throw the last game before the the all-star break and uh he'll miss the minimum if he's uh you know this will just if he misses it it's it's like minimal rest you get you get the extra break around the all-star break he'll be right back extra break around the All-Star break. He'll be right back. And then during the All-Star break, they were like, yeah, maybe early mid-August. And you're like, wait a minute. What the fuck?

What just happened? I mean, if this was the Mets, they'd get murdered, you know? But the Dodgers do that kind of thing. It's very weird. But yeah, the lineup has just been unbelievable. And for the Dodgers pitching staff, that has been kind of the core of what this organization is about. I mean, not just the recent iterations, but going back however long. This is very much a team that hits and is going to try and out-hit you, is basically what it comes down to.

to try and out hit you is basically what it comes down to and the guys who are really leading the charge aren't surprising but it is remarkable like a couple of weeks ago i was just like well ronald lacuna jr is just the mvp in the national league and like he is not he can't be really challenged for that and now and i i imagine it's the same with warp but like by our version of war you know him and bets and freeman are separated by a tenth of a win each like they have the same they have the same war this is the same this is the same you know like they all have basically the same war and the shape of the production is obviously different because ron leclerc engineer has 55 stolen bases man baseball in 2023 is a lot of fun in some specific ways, you know? And that's definitely one of them. I love that Freddie

Freeman has more stolen bases than Mookie Betts. I think he leads the team. Does he really? Yeah, he does. James Outman has 14. Freddie leads the team with 16. James Outman. What's your James Outman experience been like over the last couple months? Because it started so hot. It's been a roller coaster. I like him quite a bit. I think it's really interesting what he's done. He started out, like you said, so aggressively. I mean, there's nine home runs in April or something like that. And wow, the things my brain holds, because you wouldn't believe what I forget. Well, yeah, I mean, you and me both, but it's like, that would have been useful to retain, but...

But instead I've got James Altman with nine home runs in April. How many hit-by-pitches did Mike Zanino have in 2014? Why can I tell you, you know? Like, what else could my brain be working on in the background if it didn't have the hat sitting there rolling around? But anyway, James Outman. Yeah, so he came out obviously very power and patience kind of oriented, and then went through a really heavy adjustment period. It's not quite a grooved swing, or it wasn't, but there were very exploitable holes, both down and in, and then up over the middle or inside, and pitchers just hammered him there. And credit to

him and the team, really, that gave him, you know, they just kept running him out there. Some of it was they didn't really have other options, but they kept running him out there, and he has really changed his approach. He's definitely got a flatter swing now. He still has the power, more so when he chooses it, right? It's not only his A swing or whatever. He's definitely hitting for more average. The on-base is still there. He's taking some really good at-bats.

And the power is coming down. He's clearly traded power for contact. And it's kind of getting him to bats and the power is coming down. He's, he's clearly traded power for, for contact. Uh, and it's kind of getting him to the same place OPS wise, but the shape of it is much different. And I think for their lineup, it was actually a really crucial trade off to make, because if you are not striking out, like with guys on, you know, his speed, he can pressure defenses. And this all sounds like I'm talking about someone like from before the the sabermetric revolution about what's important. But I think just given the way the way their lineup functions, this was actually a really good trade off to make. And I honestly think the biggest improvement he's made is not even at the plate. But he was kind of a fringy center fielder, and that showed up early in the season. And I know the Dodgers announcers have talked about this on their broadcasts, and there's

certainly some bias there. But I think you can see it when you watch the games, too. He's actually turned into quite a good defensive outfielder out in center field. He's worked a lot with their first base and outfield coach Clayton McCullough, and he's been really good out there. And I think that honestly is perhaps even more valuable than the changes he's made at the plate, which are, I don't want to say cosmetic, but like I said, he was still, because of the doubles and home runs and the walks, he was still getting to a pretty solid OPS, but there was just a lot of strikeouts

in the process. And now it's fewer strikeouts, but more singles. But again, he can run a little bit. So, you know, that kind of trade-off, I think, was worthwhile for him. Well, do you have any more Dodgers thoughts? Do I have any more? I mean, I have Austin Barnes. I just need to say this.

Austin Barnes, did you see this last night? I did not. This is how they won their 11th in a row, Meg. Austin Barnes, I think, had their only hit against Corbin Burns. Or no, one of their only hits against Corbin Burns. He also then hit a home run off of Abner Uribe, who has been very good this year. Yeah, he has been. In a 1-0 win.

Okay. Austin Barnes. Austin Barnes. who has been very good this year, in a 1-0 win. Okay. Austin Barnes. Austin Barnes. Do you know what Austin Barnes' OPS is now? It's been really quite bad. The Dodgers' big league catching situation is what we in the biz refer to as a land of contrasts. And Will Smith is on the positive end of that contrast, and Austin Barnes is decidedly not.

Yeah, after the home run, he's got an 8 OPS+. That seems bad, Craig. It's been what you'd call a tough year for Austin, but that was the Austin Barnes game. He's up to a 13 WRC+. I believe he was at 1 entering last night. Yeah, negative 1.1 more.

You never want a negative... That's kind of... You almost respect it. You almost respect being able to be worth a negative win in 141 plate appearances. Like, that does take a particular kind of ineptitude at the plate.

0-4-0, ISO, yeesh, amish. That's not good. I mean, in a lot of ways, you can call this post-deadline run just like the worst players in baseball returning to something. Austin Barnes is not a good hitter. No. deadline run just like the worst players in baseball returning to something austin bars is not a good hitter but no he's never been a particularly good hitter i mean like he was good in like 2017 but he's never been yeah he had one weird he had one weird year and he was like slightly above above average from a from uh for his in terms of his WRC Plus last season. But again, not a standout offensively.

So yeah, I'd like to end my Dodger thoughts on Austin Barnes. Okay. Congrats to Austin Barnes. Yeah, because of all the hitters to really highlight, I think it's Austin Barnes. He also tried to steal a base. I do need to— Did he really?

And he was going to be out, but then it was a rule to balk. Oh. Oh. Well, you know. I wonder, Craig, do you know this off the top of your head? This might be something that I have to look up. Where are balk rates relative to normal? For some reason, I feel uh they should be up you know i feel

like even with guys having clearly adjusted to the pitch clock and whatnot the there's something about the the pickoff rules and the pitch clock it just feels like we're we're in prime bach territory but it feels maybe like it's stable They did say they were going to enforce the law a little more. Yeah, they said, like, hey, we really mean it, you know? We actually mean it. I'm actually going to do it this time. Yeah. And then it seems like it's been pretty normal. So, well, there you go.

Maybe we can use that as a way of transitioning to something different to talk about. Because where do you go from Bucks but elsewhere? Do you want to talk about a couple of transitioning to something different to talk about because where do you go from Bucs but elsewhere? Do you want to talk about a couple of promotions, a couple of big league promotions? Because we've had some. Maybe we can start with Mason Wynn because that's going to be a name that people are perhaps more familiar with. But Mason Wynn coming up to reinforce a pretty lousy Cardinals infield. Yeah, I was going to say, I did really enjoy Jeffrey, who wrote our call-up article on Mason Wynn. Just the situation is like, what necessitates this? Like, what's going on? And it just is Taylor Motter and Jose Fermin were the starting infield for the Cardinals.

That's a good line. That is definitely a good line. Yeah, like you know and i i don't mean to to disrespect the man i'm sure his family loves him he's like a not unuseful bench player but i have to imagine that if you were to have asked cardinals fans at the beginning of the season like how much taylor modder do you anticipate being in your life that their answer would have been none zero we we expect no modder at all like we no modder of modder do you anticipate being in your life? That their answer would have been none, zero. We expect no modder at all. Like, no modder. Zero modder.

And yet, there has been, there has been, I wouldn't go so far as to say an abundance of modder, but like, there's been some modder. And as a person who lived part of that life. I think they would have said, like, we'd love for the people of Memphis to experience just a tremendous amount. So much modder. So much modder. I think they would have said, like, we'd love for the people of Memphis to experience just a tremendous amount of modern instead. I mean, like, he's played in 21 games. Like, you know, he's got 68 played appearances. So it's not like he's— Yeah, it's not a ton. It's not a ton, but it's probably still more than they would have guessed.

And so as a result of that, Mason W gets to like live his his big big league dreams at least for a little while and i guess i would ask you like what is your primary impression of mason win and is it anything other than him just throwing the ball across the infield at the futures game as hard as one can that's mine you know i was gonna say we're in a uh a bit of a or we're going to be i should say i you know come 2024 when o'neill cruz is healthy we're gonna be in a golden age of people just whipping the ball yeah chucking it to first base him oh yeah ellie de la cruz and mason win all throw like i think i looked it up the other day because I was trying to I was trying to see like if they all threw it kind of

in the same way whether it was like sidearm or overhand or what they were doing they all differ they're all kind of in a different place but I think 97 and above for all three of them I think Wynn's was 100 I think Mason Wynn I mean this is very exciting it's hard to

say like this is an exciting time to be a Cardinals fan. But if you just imagined that they weren't good the last couple years before this, like, you're getting Jordan Walker and Mason Wynn up on the big league team. Don't look at the pitching staff. Don't look at it. The pitching staff gets upset when you notice it. So just don't look at the pitching staff. Don't look at it. The pitching staff gets upset when you notice it. So just don't look at it. But, you know, on the lineup front, like, you know, there are things to be excited about here.

Yeah, I mean, like, I understand the pitching staff's reluctance to be perceived because I often am like, oh, don't look at me over here. like, oh, look at me over here. But yeah, I think that if you are a Cardinals fan, there's a great deal to be excited about, both in terms of the guys who, say, have been good and promising this year, and the guys who have struggled, who you expect to look at their line next year and be like, you know, like Tommy Edmonds is probably year and be like, you know, Tommy Edmunds is probably going to be fine. When it comes down to it, that's probably going to be fine. But you've had, you know, Nolan Gorman really find his way at the plate, and Lars Neupahr is their best hitter, which, you know, seems bad in some ways, but is exciting for him.

He lost his way at the plate very recently. Not as a productive hitter, but you know. Yeah, he got hit in the beans, right? Newt bars. Yeah, he got hit in his newt bar. And I don't imagine that we will see Jordan Walker take a dramatic step forward in terms of his fielding, but I bet that the bat will come around

in a way that will be meaningful. Like you said, don't even look at the pitchers. Are they in the room with us? No, they're not. Then it'll be fine. it's going to be fine. It might not be good, but the centrals don't always require that. You know, that's not always the prereq for getting where you want to go. have some guys and we're gonna get to see what those guys do wins throw at the futures game was like i don't know if you have this experience of the stat cast metrics but sometimes sometimes you like see you see a thing happen on the field and then you see the sort of particulars of that thing from stat cast and you're like well yeah you, and the most obvious example of this is like when they'll be like, Aaron Judge hit the ball hex hard. And you're like, well, yeah, it's Aaron Judge. Like he, you know, he's given to do that. And you can like hear it, you know,

you feel it in your chest. It does the whole thing that Sam talked about. But sometimes you will find out a thing about a thing and you'll be like, oh, I didn't realize that that had gone so far or it had left the bat so fast or, you know, he had thrown it with that much movement. Like, you know, sometimes you just can't tell. And typically you could tell me that a guy had thrown a ball like five miles an hour or 50 on the infield and I'd be like, yeah, sure. Like those are numbers that might apply to that action, right? It's one of those things where I don't have a great, I don't always have a great intuitive sense of how fast, how hard. It's like once it passes the threshold of being zippy,

I'm like, that was a zippy throw. And then I don't have questions after that. Mason went through the ball at the Futures game, and I was like, I need to know how fast that was I need to know right now because that looked Really fast that looked like it went Really fast and I was Like up in the

Ox box and it looked like it went Really fast so I was like I need to have This confirmed because I was The ox box at Dodger Stadium Craig it was way Up there we were so high up In left field and I was like there are guys The Oxbox at Dodger Stadium, Craig, it was way up there. We were so high up in left field, and I was like,

there are guys down there playing baseball. I can barely see them. But I think that went through the ball really hard, and he sure did. Boy, it went fast. So I don't know if he's going to really hit much, but he sure can whip it when he's out there. So that's exciting. Mason won.

Yeah, I wouldn't expect him to hit necessarily immediately, but he was doing just fine at AAA. He was doing fine. Doing fine. Yeah. I mean, I think he's going to be like a really valuable seven hitter in a good lineup, which this could be a good lineup. And I think he's not an auto out at the plate or anything like that this is i don't i don't want to do this as a comp but like obviously jp crawford has had like a very his is like a very good year this year hitting wise but like i could see some they're not the same player, but like in terms of, I think JP Crawford also rating defensively, not very good this year, but generally is very good.

I think of him as a good defender. Yeah, I've never seen him whip the ball like I saw Mason Wynn whip the ball. of approximate that kind of style of or shape of value where it's like a good defender with an adequate bat that if if it gets better than adequate you're talking about a really valuable player yeah i think that that's right and craig he will be maybe the one of the few guys where if they get in a blowout on either side i'm'm going to be like, put them on the mound. Do it right now. Put them on the mound. Yeah. Do it right now. Put them up there. Let's see it. Also, Meg, just from our perspective, I do think we need to share one of the... How often are you messing up spelling this name? Oh, Mason? Well, Mason and then Wynn. I want to spell Wynn with a Y. Oh, so you want to... Because the Y is in the first name. Like,

with a y oh because the y is in the first name like i'm spelling like like steve winn yeah yeah yeah i mean steve and mason are different names to be clear i know that but like no but it's it's i know that there's a y in the name right overall and you're gonna put it and so i'm like win w-y-n-n or like austin wins right is is uh right i think spelled that way we love to talk about austinins on the podcast. Yeah, I don't know. I mess this up pretty frequently. I'm like, no, that's not it. Gotta fix it.

Yeah, I will probably get it wrong a couple of times. I maintain that the most irritating spelling thing, like I need all the various garrets and and jareds and to to to sort of normalize the the double consonants because i get them this is also the zach problem right yeah all the zacks just get together take a vote and decide which you're gonna use because you know and when you're when you're editing like i don't know i don't remember the process um for this at bp because i don't think i was ever in the i don't think i was ever in the cms um but uh you know the linker inflict it on people yeah like the linker will break for us if it's not spelled right yes no no right it is not something

i hope that ever makes it to to publication but i mess it up when i'm like typing it myself and i'm like oh my god yeah yeah the i i i get what you mean also there should be a win with just the one end like you know embrace it and be bold like go out of okay now you're now you're asking it's like the opposite of the garrets and the zacks right yeah i am i'm being unreasonable also people should just spell their names however they spell them and we'll figure it out but but it is a thing that trips people up the double consonants i think a lot of people struggle with also how to spell the word minuscule. I see that as a very common. It's the U.

People want an I, but it's a U. It's a U. Yeah. Minus school. Speaking of the Angels' playoff odds. Wow. You're a professional podcaster. That's a great transition.

The train of very quickly promoted Angels guys continues. And I am going to make you say Nolan's last name because I'm not confident I know how. Oh, I sure don't. I don't know. See, this bothers me because you are a college baseball draft. I'm not going to say fanatic, but you are. No, definitely not. That implies a level of expertise that I don't want people to assume so that when I make mistakes, they're liking. Do we need to call in Michael Ben Bauman? He would know how to say this, is my point. I used to be minor league editor at bp and i was i followed the draft more closely and i i still follow it fairly closely but like i don't i don't know all the all

the players beforehand like i used to i read this name and i i say chanuel i think that's right but i don't profess to know if that's right and And if it's wrong, I apologize to his family. Yeah, right. Exactly. To the whoever yours. Yeah. I looked up a bunch of stuff about the Dodgers and their opponents during their series. I forgot to ping Eric about how to say his name.

Bad job, Meg. His middle name is Ryan. I know that. I was about that yeah good good friend the baseball family yeah how about that that's commitment to that and no pressure you know at all to like reach a certain level of performance but yeah he was the angels first rounder this year um i do know even though i don't see his name that he was thought to be sort of one of the more big league ready guys, particularly among the position players, and that there was, this has been a trend that they have pursued both among their pitchers and position players

in recent years, where they have wanted to get guys to the big leagues as soon as possible. Is it still their player to have guys don't touch him? I mean, who could say? the big leagues as soon as possible is it so their player dev guys don't touch them i mean who could say i was gonna say i it's hard not to read this as like well it's not like our player dev is gonna make an impact or make a good impact so why not yeah i mean they very often have struggled let's put it that way like there are just a lot of guys where it hasn't been great uh and worked out for them but like now mickey moniak is good so again land land of contrasts i think it's been going less great for him lately but like in general it's been striking out a lot yeah so you know but like they they have had successes and they've had successes with these guys who have been drafted and then found their way pretty quickly.

Like, you know, Zach Netto, one of the Zaks, the most recent example. They are, let's see, by your guys' playoff odds, where do the Los Angeles Angels sit? Because we have them at 0.9% odds to make the postseason. So that seems not going to happen. Our playoff percentage is 2.5. Oh, wow. Very confident. With the adjusted playoff percentage of 1.3. Okay. I guess that's to reach the division series. So I guess that's out of the wildcard range.

Yeah. So, you know, I don't think that this is about them really trying to make a run. That would be a wild thing to put on a recently drafted guy to be like, hey, can you help us reach the postseason so that maybe Otani doesn't leave? Anyway, what's your middle name again? How do you say your last name? you say your last name how would you know i know they know i knew at one point but i'm i'm not i'm not confident and i don't want to say the wrong thing to you because then it'll be like what i did to bauman where he like couldn't say mitch hanager's last name correctly for like two years because what did you say hanager han i think at one point i said hanager right like like he was a character from annie or something that's not her name either, but it's closer. I have a lot of references.

That's a good one. People like the musical Annie. They don't find it irritating at all. Anyway, I don't want to say it wrong because I don't want to. Well, I hope he delivers some hard knocks for the angels. Ha ha. Kazinga. Meg, I just listened to a news broadcast and they said Shanuel.

Oh, I think that's right. Okay. So I'm not even close on my Shanuel. Shanuel. What are you going to do? You do better the next time. That's what you do. That's the way that you address it.

Get better. So he will come up. We will see kind of what he does with big league pitching. As many have remarked, the timing of his promotion is such that he will just barely retain rookie eligibility for next season. So that's definitely, I imagine, part of the calculus for both of these promotions. I would imagine that that has something to do with the specific timing of it. Although, who knows how long Mason Wynn will stay up? Who knows how long Nolan will? Not confident. Not confident, I'm going to say it. Right. So that happened. Yeah. Like we said, this particular Angels promotion, I don't think is like a last gasp of did not trade Otani at the deadline. They made that decision the day before our piece about what you would get for him if you traded him was

supposed to run. So yeah, the Dodgers are out to kill you and the Angels are maybe out to kill me. But you had some trade deadline timing thoughts. And I wanted to give you a platform for them that apparently you can't find on your own podcast. So there's been some chatter about moving the trade deadline back. I feel like much of it happened while we were in Columbus, but it was on MLB Trade Rumors, right? Like that it's been discussed by the GMs.

They don't have the authority to do it, but they've apparently discussed it amongst themselves at the GM meetings. And I am sympathetic to a point to the issue, which is that the league moved the draft back to time it with the All-Star break. makes it really uncomfortable in terms of transitioning a front office's focus from addressing the draft and preparing fully for that to then pivoting over to the deadline in the span of about two weeks. And certainly there are different groups of scouts, or at least it used to be that there was more so different groups of scouts for the draft and for prep stuff versus guys scouting the pros. But the people who worked on the draft often helped cover prospects afterwards or did kind of major league scouting to highlight major league acquisitions. And so all of this gets crunched, right, in terms of timeline.

And so all of this gets crunched, right, in terms of timeline. And that's some of why we've seen this kind of lack of movement until the very end of the trade deadline these last couple years. The other part being you added more playoff spots. And so that's just teams that have less incentive to kind of make a decision. You're still going to have those playoff spots, no matter when you make the draft. Certainly, it will alleviate some of the crunch if you move the draft to mid-August or to September. You can repurpose some of those scouts and divert them to scouting the minors and the majors and do things that way. That's all well and good. I don't really have a problem with the idea of trying to space it out. I think you're going the wrong direction, It's all well and good. I don't really have a problem with the idea of trying to space it out. I think you're going the wrong direction, though. I think the draft and arguably the all-star break can be moved up. I know they don't really want to move the all-star break, but it's after the halfway point in the season. Why not move it closer to the halfway point in the season? That would give you a little more breathing room. And I know when you and I were kind of talking about

what to talk about, you had another idea about just where to move the draft. Oh, yeah. I remain of the mind that it's natural. I'm about to say resting place. I wouldn't mind getting rid of the draft entirely, but I don't think that's on the table. So we won't make it sound like we're burying it, but it seems like a good natural fit for the draft is for them to do it in Omaha during the College World Series, which was on the table and I think was going to happen prior to the pandemic. that college guy playing in the College World Series are not givens in any particular year, but a lot of guys who get taken in the first day, you know, in the first night of the draft are going to be college players. And I think that the impetus for having the draft and the all-star break correspond with one another was that you have a natural gathering of fans to try to make it into a TV event, right? To have their energy and a vibe and all this stuff and try to make the MLB draft something more akin to what the NFL does. And, you know, there are a bunch of structural limitations to that sort of goal that we've talked about on this pod before and I think are kind of obvious but you know one group of people who are famously sort of crazy go nuts for college baseball players are

college baseball fans and they tend to congregate in Omaha every year and so are you you know assured that the first overall pick is going to be a guy who's like pitching multiple times during the college world series in in every year like no you're not but if the draft had taken place in omaha this year and you know the ncaa had sort of allowed for a bit of flex in the schedule which i imagine they would have because both the college world series and the draft are broadcast on espn right you could have had an extra off day in the schedule and i bet you would have had you know i'm sure skeans would have gone i bet a bunch of those guys who were taken on day one one of three of the first four picks were right in the in the finals in the finals. So I think you'd have this really energetic, excited audience.

I think that you would be much more likely to have guys who are going to go high present on the night of the draft. Which, you know, it was cool when dudes who were there were selected. It's like one of the guys who was there to not go on day one. But like, you know, it was cool to have him come out and put on the jersey and have people cheer. Like it was it, you know, I don't know that it translates to TV the way that say, Rob Manfred wants it to. But having been there, like it does have an energy to it that is neat. been there like it does have an energy to it that is neat and I think you know if I were him I would really want there to be as many reasons for the fans assembled to cheer for me as possible because they sure do delight in booing the commissioner and they they were pretty good I will say that

crowd was pretty good when he was up there they would boo and then when one of these young men would come out they were so excited for him and cheering and everything. And so... Well, Raul Abana's got to pop too. Yeah, yeah. And give him the location. Boy, that transition was seamless. It was like it was stage managed.

I was so proud of everyone. I was like, good job, guys. You're doing great. But yeah, I think that it would do what they wanted to do for the draft as an event and particularly as a broadcast event. And it would give front office folks the breather that they had previously enjoyed. You know, the break was for a lot of people an opportunity to like actually have a little bit of time off before you get into the sprint of the deadline and then the stretch run. And so, I do think that there is a meaningful difference from a quality of life perspective for folks who work in baseball. And this isn't just me being like, please, dear God, let me have a

single day off in the month of July. No, no. It's really more the people at the, you know, in organizations. Yeah, because it's a slog to have to go from one to the other and they're doing you know so much work around this stuff and to your point like even when you have discrete you know pro and amateur staffs like they're helping a lot of the time in front office folks are going to depending on what their responsibilities are, potentially have coverage of both events. So I think it would make a lot more sense to move it back to where we were. I thought I saw a headline about some level of interest in the college ranks of making baseball more of a summer sport.

Did you see that? I didn't see that. Was that when we were was that when we were in columbus i think in the last couple days i i thought um but like can we talk about columbus like they don't have internet there's we were just busy enjoying people you know but like if there's interest in that if that's like now your whole thing's in terms of avoiding the timing of of lining up with the college season or whatever like that if that's like now your whole thing's in terms of avoiding the timing of of lining up with the college season or whatever like that's that that's potentially gone anyway i think you do

to your point like you just need to do this when you can do it and it should be earlier i think whether you want to move up the all-star break which i think is very very unlikely i don't think they want to move yeah that doesn't seem like it's going to happen. But I think timing it with the with with the College World Series where it is right now is absolutely what it's at the middle mid late June. Right. Like, that's great timing. You could even do it the day after the last possible game at the College World Series. Right. Like, people might hang around Omaha for that.

And all that. I've also I need to say, like, they really want the draft to happen. Like you're saying, like the NBA draft, the NFL draft am sympathetic and I have thus far focused on my sympathy for the front offices. Now he's going to bury them. The 12-team playoffs mean that you're not, I mean, like, the Diamondbacks have lost, like, all but, well, they've won a few in a row, but they had lost, like, you know, all but two games at one point after the deadline. The Angels had lost a ton. Yeah, some teams get clarity, but the Diamondbacks are still a game and a half out or something like that. There's not really more clarity for them.

And also, you run a baseball team. This is why you get paid the big bucks to make big boy and big girl decisions and say, like, you know, here's where we're sitting. This is a tough call. That's your job. Yeah. Okay. Like, this is, it just, it makes me so mad.

It's the same thing. Like, I understand, I understand the rationale behind the hardcore strip down to the studs rebuilds right what the orioles did we're seeing it pay off in spades for the orioles i'm not gonna try and tell you it didn't work but what bothers me is like like mike elias you went to yale you're like at the top of your profession you're highly respected and you're doing the most obvious way to rebuild possibly like if you're good at what you do shouldn't you be able to like not be a 55 win team and still turn your team into a good organ like make this a good organization and make this a good team like that that's what bothers like you get there's there's

a lot of there's not a lot of money in in many positions in in the baseball uh industry but no there is at the top and you get paid a pretty good amount to do it, like, then do it. Like, don't do the most basic, obvious option out there. And do the one that actually involves competing, the one that's hard, right? The one that has a little bit of difficulty to prove your mettle. And the same thing for this trade deadline thing. Don't make a decision in mid-August. If you push the trade deadline back to September, you're just delaying. And I love procrastination, but I'm just a guy who runs a website. You run a baseball organization. Make a call. Either go for it or don't. Stand by your convictions. Or even be honest and say, look,

this is a tight one, but this is why we went with what we did. And we have a conviction in it, and we're going to be better next year. And, you know, to Elias' credit, I didn't like the move, but he did it last year with, you know, three games out. And he said, we're going to be better in 2024, and this is for the future. And he was right. They're better in 2023. Sorry. Yeah.

And he was right. They're better in it. And at least, you know, there's some conviction in what you're doing there. Right. And I just, I, I, it drives me nuts that of course these guys want more time to make a decision, but like step up and, and, and make a, make a call, you know, that's August is pretty late. And I also have to say, like, you're not going to get shit back for a month of these guys. Right. I don't know.

Yeah, I think that in all likelihood, and we've seen exceptions to this, right? We've seen some big names move at what was the waiver deadline. But in general, I think the profile of player in both directions would probably be somewhat diminished by it taking longer because you just get them for less time you know there's less time for them to be impactful for your club now I do think that it would inspire some teams to like say screw it we're going to try to make moves earlier so that we can enjoy these guys for longer. But if the impetus for moving it around is, you know, we need to be able to staff this in a more comprehensible, reasonable way, the answer seems obvious that it's moving the draft back to what it was rather than extending the deadline deeper into the summer. So, I would tend to agree with you, Craig. It pains me to say, but I think you're right.

Not a good look for anybody. Yeah, terrible for everyone involved. Well, I want to do a couple of quick emails, just a few, and then we'll do our future blast and then let you go and enjoy your weekend. So among our emails, we're going to start with this one. First from Patreon supporter Joseph, who asks, I was listening to the Braves radio broadcast of the first game of their doubleheader with the Mets yesterday, and the Braves had taken an 8-0 lead in the sixth inning when Peter Moylan noted that when a score gets that lopsided, the high leverage relievers start to mentally check out and the low leverage ones start to mentally check in. This got me wondering about possible negative consequences to this checking out. Like, if the Mets made a comeback such that Rossiel Iglesias had to mentally check back in to come in to the ninth and save an 8-7 game, which to be clear, he really did not have to do, would he be a worse version of himself compared to if the game had

always been close and he had never mentally checked out to begin with? If so, I wonder if that speaks in favor of keeping the bullpen in the dark about the state of the game until they come in. If Iglesias had never known the game was 8-0, he never would have checked out and would have been coming into any other close game. Do you all think there's any potential benefit to keeping relievers in the dark like this? I do, just so you know, Craig, I know you're busy. You don't listen to the pod actively. This is very typical of our listener emails, which are wonderful and say some variation of what if we made big league players either worse or like they're on naked and afraid?

You know, it's like a vibe that we often have in ours. So what do you think of this idea of keeping? First of all, do you think it would make a difference? And if it does, should they be sort of sequestered, I guess, for lack of a better word, until they have to come in and go, oh boy, there are a bunch of guys on base. I think maybe it doesn't go far enough.

Oh. I think, did you watch How I Met Your Mother at any point? I did not. Okay. There's an episode in which one of the characters is trying not to, they had to miss the Super Bowl for a funeral. And so they try not to learn what happened in the Super Bowl, record it, and watch it the next day. Okay. And to accomplish this, one of them uses, creates and uses what he calls the Sensory Deprivator 5000.

And I think that's what we need to put on relievers. And I think they should have to wear it in the game. Because you can't let them come in and know. I mean, I think if we're going to take this idea to its perhaps illogical endpoint. Which is the purpose of our emails, yes. Yeah. You can't let them observe the score when they come in. I mean, if you want them optimally performing, right, they have to be in a state, a mental state, where they assume this is their most important situation possible, right?

That they need to execute perfectly. And in that case, you can't let Ryzel Iglesias come in at eight to six. No, no. You can't let him see the score. You can't let him see if there are other base runners. He's just got to go up there completely. He should have been in a sensory deprivation chamber then transported this is why we have bullpen carts now they're going to transport the sensory deprivation chamber out to the mound he's going to come out you're

going to strap on something that that blocks most of his vision he could just give him tunnel vision to the plate and uh i think that's, yeah, no. I think, earnestly, this is just how humans are. Yeah. And I do think we've seen, you know, there are times someone's been, I mean, they do all the studies about closers pitching in non-closing situations. Sure. And struggling a little bit. They don't get the adrenaline rush that they otherwise do. We've seen situations where teams make this big comeback, and then they go to the closer, and the closer

isn't quite as sharp because they weren't following the ideal path for them to be as optimally sharp as they would be, and things were a little rushed or whatever. These things kind of spiral, and I think one of the reasons they spiral is because of this kind of mental state thing. But I don't, I don't think there's any way you can avoid this, right? Like at some point, whether they're warming up in the mound, right? When let's say you keep them, you know, unaware, but then they have to warm up on the bullpen mound, like they're gonna, they're gonna see it, like they're gonna see this game situation. So I don't think there's really anything you can actually do about it. But I do think, I mean, certainly Peter Moylan would know, but I do think it stands to reason that this is actually a thing that really happens. Yeah, I mean, I think that that's right. I do like the idea of being like, you have blinders on and it's like, how many stolen bases would Ronald Acuna Jr. have. Well, they made stolen, we want more stolen bases, right? I mean, sure, yeah, we

do. I don't know if we want them won quite this way, but we do want them. That is true. It would certainly make Fernando Tatis' steal of home less special. Yeah, and we don't want to diminish that. That would be terrible. Yeah, I was wrong. Let's not, let's not deprive them of their senses. Let's not do it. Okay, Well, this one is trade deadline related, so maybe I should have led with it, but I'm going to do it now. This comes from Patreon supporter Jaunty. I hope I'm saying that correctly.

Let's say that just before the 2023 trade deadline, Shohei Otani made the following declaration that he would, in the upcoming offseason, sign a 10-year contract for the league minimum salary with whatever team won the 2023 World Series, setting aside concerns for his and his agent's well-being and safety. your contract for the league minimum salary with whatever team won the 2023 world series setting aside concerns for his and his agent's well-being and safety would this have appreciably changed any team's approach to the 2023 trade deadline what about if the same declaration were made

prior to the start of the 2023 season presumably most contending teams are already attempting to maximize their chances of winning the world series but would there be some teams around the margins that would really go for it? Would the potential reward be enough to push a team to try a weird high-risk strategy? Would some teams throw service time manipulation to the wind and call up their great prospects? You know whose strategy I think this would most meaningfully have changed if it were announced pre-season? It might have been your Los Angeles Dodgers, Craig. Yeah, I agree.

Yeah. I think the Dodgers would have been like, let's spend the coin now because we're not going to have to spend it later if he's signing for the minimum. You know, blow it out. Who cares what our luxury tax threshold penalties are this year? We're getting Otani for like 700k for the next 10 years. Let's go. I think that the Dodgers would have been like, okay, let's do it. As weird as it sounds, like, maybe the Mets. I mean, like, I know they already kind of did it. But, like, maybe the Mets would have just done more. I don't know that it would have worked, but.

It would have been like Adam Driver in Star Wars. I think, you know, they ask, like, would teams, like, appreciably change their approach? And I think the answer is, like, yes, and also most of them. Now, it might not actually bear out for most of them because, like, let's say, I mean, like, you know, Ken Kendrick is cheap. But, like, let's say Arizona was like, we need to go nuts here. Like, their version of nuts is different than the Mets and the Dodgers and Yankees. I mean, the Yankees probably would change quite a bit, right? I mean, like, I think it would change a lot, even just at the deadline.

There were so many teams on the fringes that if they just got in, I mean, if you're the Reds, it blew my mind that the Reds only picked up Sam Moll at the deadline. But, like, if you're Cincinnati and you have the opportunity to potentially have Shohei Otani at a league minimum contract for 10 years, don't you have to go absolutely insane? Yeah. I think you can make the argument that pretty much every team should have been really trying meaningfully harder, both at the deadline and because like him at that contract. First of all, the Players Association would be like, no, no, no, no, no, you're not doing that. Like, we're going to decertify you. You don't get to do that. I wonder what the commissioner's office would say if Ohtani made that declaration. He'd be like, look, I support player autonomy and I want them to have what they want. The commissioner was quoted as squealing and clapping his hands. Well, we'd get more Manfred photos. He'd be like, ah!

You and I are the only people, not the only people, but we are among the 10 people who care as much as we do about how few pictures there are of Rob Manfred and his photos. Just walking across a parking lot in Florida. And then he walked back, you know? They got him again and walked back the other way. I think that, you know, there are a number

of teams, like, I don't know how deep the commitment to cheapness goes, but you would expect that the Orioles probably would have taken a different tact. We might have seen the Mariners take a different tact. Now, if everyone is suddenly trying much harder to sign marquee free agents, not everyone's going to be able to do that. And I think there probably does come a time and a price point at which they say no, because we already, without this very rational, completely plausible incentive, like, we already saw free agent contracts this last offseason be

pretty rich. So... So here's my question. Do the Giants back out of the Carlos Correa deal? Oh, what a good question. I don't know. I think the Mets absolutely don't. I think you're right about that. I think you're right. I think that the, I think the Giants might still have said, and I look, I don't want to, you know, he's had such a crummy season and I don't know that that's because of what they saw on the medical. They did come away looking better for having had a second team say, yikes. But I don't know. I don't know if they would have been like, well, let's risk it, because it was still a very hefty contract but i bet the mets would have gone eh let's screw it like sure you know we'll keep you and your leg around we ran so many carlos cray assigning reacts i'd forgotten how many there were at some point ben was like i can't write another one of these he has to stay a twin like if there is one more someone else has to do it but But I think also Aaron Judge makes like $50 million more.

Right. Yes. You know, that to me is absolutely one consequence. As for throwing service time manipulation to the wind, I don't want to say service time manipulation isn't happening. We're about to see a wave of call-ups, I think, because of today being the day that teams can retain their chance at draft picks next year and whatever. But to my great surprise, these incentives do seem to be helping quite a bit. So I don't think there's as much of that as we kind of ran into previously.

You know, looking at the guys who, like, I still think that this year's most egregious bit of, like, kind of messing around with service is probably Uri Perez, right? Because the way that he was demoted and then called back up, like, he's probably going to narrowly avoid Super 2. Like, that's probably the most obvious one where it feels like something was motivating it other than the understandable concern about concern about given that this guy were in a playoff spot i mean like right they need to win games and they had like a negative run differential yeah that one's a tough one to swallow and like and i to be clear like i do think that in that particular case we don't need to get too far afield with this but like i think that there is a legitimate concern about like how many innings that guy can throw um just based on how many he has thrown so far and you can address that concern with him on the 26 man roster correct so exactly you know you know like i was like we're we we know you can you know you can do both right you can do both things like the the concern is

very legitimate. I think it is a thing that you have to actively and carefully manage. And I would rather see a team be overly cautious than throw caution to the wind. And it's like, then this guy, I don't know that he would have blown out. Ryan Yarborough was freely available, okay? Yeah. If you want to piggy, you know, three innings of Uri Perez and throw Ryan Yarborough, it's fine. Yeah. Like, just if you want to piggy, you know, three innings of Uri Perez and throw Ryan Yarborough. Sure. It's fine.

Yeah. You know. I need Ryan Yarborough to be a brewer because I think that if he is in the state of Wisconsin, he'll get a cheese named after him. He'll definitely get a cheese. That's the goal. Like, how is Yarborough not a kind of cheese? Doesn't it sound like a kind of cheese? Well, it's a lot like Jarlsberg.

Right. Already. Yeah. Yeah. But it needs to be an actual cheese. Doesn't it sound like a kind of cheese? Well, it's a lot like Jarlsberg. Right. Already, yeah. Yeah, but it needs to be an actual cheese. Yeah, it would be great. He would fit them, too. That's like a Chris Capuano homage. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I think that that would be, see?

Like, you're like, there's a good, legitimate thing here, and I'm like, cheese, though. What if we made it like cheese craig okay we have one more silly email that i want to answer it feels slightly futuristic to me which is why i am going to have it precede the future blast so this is patreon supporter andrew asking hello ben and meg i'm sure he'll be very happy to have you answer the question too craig don't worry what if our sentient baseball friends made contact with an alien civilization? Furthermore, the baseballs were able to communicate with Ha Sung Kim,

and they told Ha Sung that the aliens had threatened to blow up Earth if the Padres played over 500 this season. The threat must also be kept a secret. Two questions. Knowing that they can't tell anyone about the possible end of the world, how long could the Padres, and how many Padres would be in on it, keep their secret that they saved the world by playing under expectations? And secondly, is this explanation any more reasonable than any of the others that address why the Padres have been so unlucky in one run and extra innings games? And we are recording on August 12th.

We received this email earlier than that. We're recording the 18th. It was received earlier. Yes, this was sent on the 12th. We are recording on the 18th. I know what direction time goes. And as we are recording today, San Diego is 6-19 in one-run games, and they still have not won an extra innings contest this year.

I did not know that isn't that wild that's insane it's insane and like they have they lost craig craig they lost an extra innings game in cores with the bases loaded yeah and did not score and i was watching that no that was one of the most insane 10th innings i've ever seen in my life. Because the runner on second starts and Juan Soto is hitting. So I think Tatis is on second and Juan Soto is hitting. And he does a weird, like, bunt move that was successful. So now it's, but I'm like, you're Juan Soto. And this is Coors Field and it's the Rockies bullpen.

So, but you've bunted. And I'm like, well, that's, I legitimately thought in that moment, like that was weird, but it's first and third and now Manny Machado's up. So like, we're probably okay. Manny Machado, I forget exactly what he did, but he gets on base. I don't know if it was an infield hit or a walk or hit by pitch or something, but he ends up on first base.

Base is loaded. No out. And they, oh, God, I don't, now I'm not remembering every single, but like they line out twice, I think. Yeah, I think that's right. It was shocking. And then, oh, my God. Just absolutely nuts. Yeah, it was shocking.

Absolutely nuts. What I would say to this prompt, this premise that we have here is Ha Sung Kim not doing his part in protecting all of us. This is an excellent point. They picked the wrong guy. He does not care about the future of humanity. Yeah, which, you know, I don't know him personally, but he doesn't seem particularly misanthropic to me. He is having just a great season for them.

He's so good. For us, he's an almost 4.5 win player. He's a 128 WRC+. Baseball reference has him at 5.7 wins right now. Wow. Man, I guess TRS must love his defense.

I mean, we like his defense, but, like, that's a lot. That's a lot of wins. Yeah, it's pretty remarkable. So it's hard to... Our warp is on a different scale. Like, you and Baseball Reference have him... You guys have the same warp baseline, or overall amount

of warp, and warp is not on that. So we have him at 2.3 wins, which is good, but it's not as... It's also a little bit different compared to what actually happened versus deserved and whatever. But he's having a tremendous season, and he's not helping us out is is the broader point here yeah i'd say i'd say a lot of credit to the bottom and and back of the padres lineup yeah shout out matt carpenter yeah uh shout out nelson cruz who we know to be a legitimate like humanitarian and so that's true maybe this makes his season make sense you know like i i know that that guy is like very active back in the dr and he's he's a great mentor to younger players seems to really care about treating rookies well so it's not a it's not a true story but it is more plausible than i originally gave

it credit for i think it's my take away from this also like i in terms of the comparison about their one run and x training games i mean like that is i know every team has some bad luck in this sure for as good a team as this is i would be interested i know i think it was michael ben Sure. And I had actually been talking like maybe a week, 10 days ago with Robert or a writer on our site about Milwaukee's bullpen and kind of how like they're known for creating these very good bullpens. And like this year, their bullpen is not so great, except if you only look at their top four. Right. And then they're freaking incredible. And I don't know if people realize that that it's not just devin uh williams it's it's joel pyams has a sub to era i think i mentioned abner

oribe earlier yeah he's been great 15 innings but he's been great uh bryce wilson you know for a guy who's thrown almost 60 innings he he eats a lot of innings like he's got a 3-3 era hobie milner has been good like these are not like names anyone actually cares about but right they have been really good and then they have like the other guys who throw innings and are you know really struggle and i i just i wonder where san diego falls into that i feel like they're they might be the opposite where it's like yeah obviously josh hater has been incredible but yeah he's been he has bounced back quite nicely yeah and and i know like i at various points i know stephen wilson was having a nice season maybe he tailed off but like brent honeywell started off really well they had to dfa him like now

now he plays for the white socks so yeah tells you what you need to know. And, like, it just seems like they're maybe the opposite of the Brewers, where, like, overall they're kind of okay. And then, like, outside of Hayter in crunch time, like, I don't know what their WPA kind of aspect is, which I think is how Michael looked at it. But, like, yeah, it's tough. I mean, and right now, like, I'm looking, like, Tom Cosgrove and Pedro Avila have been incredible, but let's throw Tom Cosgrove and Pedro Avila in. I don't know. Yeah. It's maybe not what you want. reverse Milwaukee situation or Miami or Baltimore kind of thing happening. So I think, I think credit to the, the DHS in San Diego and non-hater bullpen. Yeah.

I think that that's right. I think that that's right. Well, hopefully they can avert disaster for longer. I mean, like how long would you wait to tell anyone about this? I think, I think you would sound uh um maybe a little unhinged

and so i think you you have to you maybe have to hold on to it until we have more persuasive congressional hearings and then people they can be like look you know they just blew your mind with the existence of aliens but let me tell you something else that's even crazier you could do a you could do a real podcast circuit with that story i think i i feel like uh you know those those scully uh and at molder and scully like twitter prompts where it's like yeah you ever hear about the knife alien or whatever it's like the popular it's like yeah you ever hear about the knife alien or whatever it's like the popular it's like yeah you ever hear about the baseball terrorists uh alien or whatever i i think we'd have to workshop the name of the aliens in that case like we need the writer's

strike to be over so that we can get a room together and like come up with something i'm no threat here but yeah yeah they're not gonna come to you for scabbing on the on the writer's strike right? no I don't think so Chris Carter's like yeah because of my known solidarity not because of a talent gap you're a pro union guy we know

we know how it goes but yeah I think you ever hear of the knife alien? I want to do him with like a thick Jersey accent like I'm a cop who's about to retire you ever hear of the knife alien? Why do I want to do him with a thick Jersey accent like I'm a cop who's about to retire? You ever heard of the knife alien? I'm trying to get that guy for years. Well, that's how it should be. Yeah.

I always imagine him a little annoyed, too. Oh, yeah. He's definitely a little annoyed and super horny. That's the two vibes that David Duchovny gives. Yeah. I mean, I know that he's had some issues as a person, but, like, the character is canonically horny. Like, I think that that's

acknowledged at this point. Ben's going to be so excited when he listens to this. He's like, well, they're talking about the X-Files. Oh, no. Not how you think, sir. Yeah, no, I mean, I shouldn't give him guff, because Ben has decided that we're

a kind of horny show now. That's part of our canon also. Not of each other, to be clear, but just toward baseball and other things. It's mostly him and Ohtani. Did you see Oral Hershiser's comment the other day? I know I posted it.

Incredible transition. Thank you for that name coming right after horny well do you did you hear what he said no what did he say what do you say it's like shagging is a multiple person uh experience there's like always multiple people involved in look it up but it was it was really quite good that's fantastic and he just said it on a broadcast with no no shagging is a group activity did uh did joe davis manage to keep it together joe davis yeah joe davis did not break and i i will also add via that's i i posted this on twitter and sam schultz replied uh because he he continued on with some entendre and said,

when a guy is shagging with the intensity that he wants to at a game level, at game level speed, everybody clears out. Delightful. That was about James Alt outman's uh defensive improvements that's fantastic of all the things of all the things to have it be about i would struggle to to keep it together on broadcast i think i know that about myself because i've i've had laugh fits on on this show before so i can only imagine And then I'd feel pressure to not laugh, and that would make me want to laugh harder.

So, you know, it would be a roll. Yeah, I think the best I could do is just stare at him without commenting. Right. Just hope he keeps talking. I'm hoping. And then, you know, hope that you get to do, like, a full Halpert to the broadcast camera.

You know, just be like, oh, I don't know. Oral. Well, on that delightful note, we should do the future blast because we have a delightful one. Not especially horny, but this future blast comes to you from 2048 and comes to you, as always, from Rick Wilber.

Rick Wilber is an award-winning writer, editor, and college professor and has been described as the dean of science fiction, baseball. And here we have the future blast. A highlight of the 2048 Major League season was the appearance of all three McLeod brothers playing for the American League in the All-Star Game held in Louisville's Apple Field. It was the first time three brothers had played together for their league in the All-Star Game held in Louisville's Apple Field. It was the first time three brothers had played together for their league in the All-Star Game that all three were starters added to the sense of baseball history in the making. Jalen McLeod, leading the league in home runs and red scored at the break, started in right field.

His brother, pitching ace Kenton McLeod, was the AL starter and threw two scoreless innings. The third brother, Jonathan McLeod, started in center field. The historic moment of the first pitch of the game by one brother had led to a fly ball to center that was caught by another brother, who then tossed the ball to yet another brother and was captured live by old school television and streaming, as well as by the be-there systems that all three brothers wore for the All-Star game. A global audience of nearly 30 million watched the game and cheered for their favorite players, from the McLeod brothers to designated runner Lauren Fields and others. Fields made her first appearance as an All-Star and twice stole second and then

scored on base hits. In the sixth inning, Mika Sharjah Jr. became the first Finn to play in an All-Star game when he came to play second base in the sixth inning as did kevin in gundam nicole from thailand who came in at short baseball was showing off how international the game had become in and domico was just the second player with roots in thailand to play in the big leagues the first was johnny damon who played for a number of teams from 1995 to 2012 damon's mother was thai and briefly paid for Thailand's national team. Meanwhile, MLB continued to investigate Be There systems for privacy concerns and other issues, including probable

deepfake hacking intrusions into the Be There system. Despite the success of the All-Star Game coverage, most players closed their accounts. And that is The View from 2048. Craig, thank you so much for joining me. I appreciate it so much. What would you like to plug at Baseball Perspectus? how we survive it is how we grow and uh if we want to keep uh doing cool things and getting everything up to speed and all that kind of stuff we need subscribers i think our content is very

much worth it uh right now an annual subscription is 45.95 so that's under four dollars a month it really it really really really is a steal so if you've been thinking about it please uh do it i will also tell people if you see an article you are not a subscriber and you see an article that you would like to read, please just let me know. I will probably just put it in front of the paywall for you and you can check it out and then you can hopefully decide to subscribe. We're not especially picky about that, but we put things behind a paywall because that's how it works for us as a company. So yeah, that's it. We are gearing up for the annual, so that'll be coming, but it won't be for a long time. So it's August and we get to say that, Meg. I'm loving it is what I'm going to say.

Yeah. I know that it is a truly tremendous amount of work to put together, but it is a really indispensable resource for people as they're approaching the coming season. And the fact that you have to start in August perhaps can help folks understand the breadth and depth of it. So check that out. Would you like to plug your podcast? Sure. Sure. I do a generally twice-weekly podcast, Five and Dive, with Jeffrey Paternostro, who I mentioned, and also our author and editor, Patrick Dubuque, one of my favorite people in the world. One of mine. Who I know you know quite well as well.

Yep. And we do that usually Mondays and Thursdays, and it comes out, like, Tuesdays and Fridays. So check that out. That is completely free. Feel free to, you know, get a sense of it. We've been playing a lot of games on our podcast, Meg. We've been doing a lot of games. Have you been doing drafts or other kinds of games? No. Drafting, that's really Ben's thing. I don't want to take Ben's thing.

You can draft. It would be fine. We wouldn't be mad about it. We've done a live Immaculate Grid and not Immaculate Grid itself. take ben's thing um you can draft it would be fine we wouldn't be mad about it you know we've done a live immaculate grid and not and not immaculate grid itself patrick has created one he did one for me and one of the categories was has a mustache okay and that seems like a lot of guys uh well you have to remember how i knew james outman had nine home runs in april but i forget other obvious things ah okay yeah it was i was like did this guy have a mustache and also like

when he was on that team did he have it on that team yeah i don't know so that was it we do something uh that jeff has named octavio's game which which is apparently, there's something called, I think, Luke's game from a podcast called The Football Ramble. But it's basically, Patrick and I bid on how many teams we can name that someone played for. Oh, sure. So, like, Rich Hill has played for 13 teams. How many do you think you can name? And so then you bid against each other other and then you have to do it. Got it.

And there's a variety. Jeff, I'm not good at any of them, Meg, and they keep coming up with new ones, and it's not going well for me. Well, I was always bad at the annual drinking game. Yeah, that is one game I can do, and we don't do that. I mean, we do that for the annual.

Yeah, you have to save that for special occasions. But yeah, I know how it feels to not. I mean, our listeners know the sort of flop sweat that I go into when we do our drafts. And then when I prep, I only do marginally less sweating. So I'm sympathetic. And then where should the people find and follow you on social media i'm at cd goldstein on twitter i'm not calling it x um stupid and i'm i'm also at cd goldstein dot baseball perspectives.com on blue sky where which i have been using more often honestly yeah

yeah and you and you insist on calling it blue sky and not blue ski. Not blue ski. Yeah. Well, I like blue ski. I just forget. Yeah. I know that people don't find that joke funny anymore, but I still find it delightful. So, yeah, I tell people that it's blue ski. We'll see everyone over there. Craig, once again, thank you so much for joining me. and we'll see you next time. Despite my intro, this will not be your final appearance on Effectively Wild. Thank you for having me. That'll do it for today. Thank you for listening and thank you to Craig Goldstein for joining me. You can support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild.

The following five listeners have already signed up to help keep the podcast humming along and Thank you. on merchandise and complimentary Fangraphs memberships. You might even get to come on an episode with me and Ben. It all depends on your level of support, but rest assured that any level of support is greatly appreciated. You can check out all the perks and offerings on patreon.com. You can also join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash group slash effectively wild, and you can rate, review, and subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.

Keep your questions and comments for me and Ben coming via email at podcast at fangraphs.com or via the Patreon messaging system if you're already a supporter. And if you're musically inclined, we're still on the hunt for theme songs, so be sure to send those along too. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his production and editing assistance. Ben and I will both be back with another episode next week. Until then, be well and enjoy baseball. If baseball were different, how different would it be? And if this thought haunts your dreams, well, stick around and see what Ben and Meg have to say. Philosophically and pedantically,

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