Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2050: Sho No

Episode Date: August 25, 2023

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley lament and discuss Shohei Ohtani’s UCL injury and its ramifications for the rest of his season, his two-way future, his free agency, the Angels, and the continued happiness of baseball fans and podcast co-hosts, followed by conversations about Stephen Strasburg’s retirement (59:17), Wander Franco’s placement on administrative leave (1:11:30), and […]

Effectively Wild is the only show I do. Hosted by Ben Lindberg and Meg Riley. I want to hear about Shohei Otani. Or Mike Trout with three arms Hello and welcome to episode 2050 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of The Ringer, joined by Meg Raleigh of Fangraphs. Hello, Meg. Hello. Well, my whole family has COVID this week. Our first time getting it. It finally caught up to us after all these years.

And I thought that would be the worst health-related news that I received this week. But I don't know. I'm not sure that it was. As bad as it was, we'll be all right. We're pumped full of Paxlovid. We're already kind of coming out of it, I think. However, not so for my man, who feels like a member of my extended family, even though he's not aware of that, Shohei Otani. Just the worst possible news, the news that I've dreaded every

day, every minor little ailment that he has had and suffered and transcended. It's always, is there a spring here? Is there going to be a UCL issue? And yeah, there is. And it happened in, I guess, not that literally a painful way. It seems like it was more like a discomfort and something doesn't feel right here, but certainly painful for everyone, really. I mean, for Angels fans, everyone's an Otani fan to some degree. This felt like an enormous blow to baseball collectively that Shohei O'Donnell is done as a pitcher for this season and potentially for a lot longer. is done as a pitcher for this season and potentially for a lot longer. As we record, we don't have definitive confirmation that he will undergo Tommy John surgery,

but it seems likely that that will be necessary. The exact timing of it obviously is also to be determined. He is planning to DH for the foreseeable future, but it is just like a stone-cold bummer for, like you said, for everyone. For him, certainly. For fans enjoying the season that he's having and what we anticipated to be the seasons he will have. And for him, as he enters this offseason, I imagine that he will still find his way into a very lucrative contract, but it certainly seems unlikely to be exactly what it was going to be before the news that he needed a second TJ. And it introduces a ton of uncertainty into when we might get to enjoy him as he is fully capable of playing the sport again. So it just really just sucks. Like he left that game early and he had had a couple of shorter starts

since the All-Star break. You know, he obviously had that complete game shutout just after it became clear that Anaheim wasn't going to trade him. But he had exited a start against the Mariners early with cramping issues. He's had some blister stuff. So you, you know, you were able to say like, well, maybe it's related to that. You know, we know he's had some fatigue. Cracked fingernail. Yeah. A whole series of minor, seemingly not serious ailments. And then most recently, arm fatigue, which sounded more worrisome, but also, you know, it's like, boy, are my arms tired, that old joke. Like, why wouldn't his arms be fatigued? He uses them so much. There's so much forces mustered by that arm. But so you hoped

that, okay, he's just, you know, he's playing it safe and he's in tune with his body and he's not trying to be a hero out here. Of course, he is a hero, but he's not, you know, he's playing it safe and he's in tune with his body and he's not trying to be a hero out here. Of course, he is a hero, but he's not trying to endanger himself and just skip the start. And I feel bad now because I was like, oh yeah, just courteous of him to skip a start while I was in Sweden. I wouldn't have been able to watch. And then I think my sign off at the end of our last episode was like, I'm back. Mike Trout's back. All's right with the world. Now, not even Mike Trout is back anymore. And also, Tanya's gone. So sorry for jinxing and cursing all of the angels. But yeah, there was some cause for concern, but not alarm. And in retrospect,

now we can look back and say, oh, the arm fatigue, that was probably related to this. And I don't know about the other minor ailments or just his general wildness on the mound sometimes as a pitcher this season. Not sure whether that was related or not. But the way it went down where we got this one last vivid reminder of how much fun it is when he's doing his two-way thing. vivid reminder of how much fun it is when he's doing his two-way thing. Because in the first inning of that game, it was yet another demonstration, right? Where he struck out two players, not slouches either. I mean, he got a weak ground out from leadoff man TJ Friedel, and then he struck out Matt McClain and Ellie De La Cruz swinging back to back on nice splitters. And then he goes out there in the bottom of the first inning and hits just a mammoth, majestic home run, 116 miles per hour, 442 feet.

It's like one last demonstration of the fully operational Otani. And there were already some signs because he was topping out at 94. Right. The velo was down in a way that was quite concerning. It was, but we've seen him do that sometimes. He'll just take some speed off, and it didn't necessarily indicate any damage. And maybe you figured, well, he's just ramping up again after his absence here. He's taking it easy. Sometimes he'll add speed as he goes deeper into a game.

That's what I was telling myself, at least. And then he comes out for the second, and then he's topping out at 92, and he's throwing mostly off-speed stuff. And he gets Votto to pop out, and then he calls the trainer out. And that was that. And we don't know when or, I guess, if we've got to be realistic about this, we will see him on the mount again. So we got one last look, one last taste. And then it was very concerning because every time he comes out as a pitcher, whether he just reaches his pitch count or has a blister or a cracked fingernail or cramps or whatever it is, he almost always stays in as a DH. So the fact that he did not stay in as a DH after he was removed as a

pitcher, that was pretty concerning. And then we found out he had tests. Oh, and then he was DHing in the second game. And again, there is again that now really bittersweet moment where after he had his hustle double in the fifth, all the Reds' rookie infield just clustered around him, you know? He's like, he's the center of gravity of the game. And these guys, again, like no slouch. Elie de la Cruz is a sensation himself. I mean, he's a jaw-dropping combination of speed and power. He homered and tripled in that first game.

And yet even he was reaching out to touch Otani's arm as if to say, are you real? Are you flesh and blood? And sadly, he is flesh and blood. I mean, it's nice that he's flesh and blood because he's a human. He's a mere mortal like the rest of us, which is inspiring that he's able to transcend the limitations, but then ultimately is subject to them sometimes. So you had the whole Reds rookie, you know, Noé Ville Marte is bowing to him and then his strands and Carnacion's strand and McLean and Elie are all just clustered around him, like wanting an audience with him.

And now knowing what we know and knowing what he knew at the time, Otani presumably knew his diagnosis, right? Or at least that he had this tear that something serious was going on and he didn't let on. I mean, he was smiling and laughing. I'm sure his heart was heavy

knowing that he might not be able to pitch for a long time, that maybe he just missed out on hundreds of millions of dollars potentially. And yet you would not have known it from his face, right? Like he was trying to be the Otani that they wanted him to be,

like these adult, talented major leaguers from his face, right? Like he was trying to be the Otani that they wanted him to be, like these adult, talented major leaguers who were clustered around him like little kids, you know, like asking for autographs, basically. That's what he turns not just fans into, but other players, other talented players. And I mean, he's not dead, you know, he's still around and perhaps he'll be hitting too, but the real show, you know, the Shohei around and perhaps he'll be hitting too. But the real show, you know,

the Shohei show, the two-way show, we might not see that for a long time if we see it ever. I'm holding out hope that we will see it again, but you can't count on it. No, you can't. And I, yeah, I can't, I just can't imagine what he had to have been thinking in those moments, knowing that he was sitting on news that was going to shake the industry and the game pretty profoundly. You know, you don't want to talk about him like he's dead. Tommy John, they rehab from a second Tommy John, you know, it's, it's not unprecedented, but, you know, any absence for a player as they are approaching and then cresting 30, you do start to do a little bit more math in your head when they return and, um, think about like what the trajectory of their career might be like and what our enjoyment of them might be. I would really struggle if I were him to think about how best to sequence these things because arguably he should get Tommy John today.

The Angels are done, and they were going to be done even if he hadn't been injured, even if Trout had managed to stay off the injured list. It is a testament to the sort of profundity of that injury that like Mike Trout going back on the injured list is sort of the second story here. Yeah. It's sadly been kind of a common story over the past few years, but yeah. Right. But one where, you know, again, we are not doctors and we don't know the, you know, what's going on inside these guys' elbows or with their tiny weird bird bones that are no longer in their wrists, right? But arguably, like, if you're going to be, if you are invested in feeling concerned today, if what you would like is to panic yourself, you know, like you're like, hey, I have a void in my anxiety bank. I got to fill it with something.

You know, arguably, like the person we should maybe be a little more worried about today is Mike Trout, because the fact that he had to go back on the injured list with this thing that can not always, as you as you mentioned, when we initially discussed his injury, like it doesn't always sap guys for as long as I think the general perception, but that guys who have complications from those kinds of bone breaks, it can be a really bad omen for what the rest of their hitting careers are going to be like. Like we should be all exercised about Mike Trout, but it's hard to devote your feeling and attention to anything other than the fact that we're just like not going to see this guy pitch for, you know, 18 months. Like your second TJ recovery takes longer. Generally, they do that on purpose. They are very regimented in these guys returns because it is the second one. He is obviously trying to do another thing at an incredibly high level in a way that makes you wonder, like, how is he going to balance that? And we know how he handled the timing of his first surgery relative to the initial diagnosis the first time, but, like, he's in a very different position both in terms of his career and in terms of where the Angels are this time around. So if you're advising Otani,

I don't know what you would tell him because he clearly wants to keep playing. He wants to showcase to potential teams this offseason, like I can at the very least still hit and do so effectively given this injury. But if what he wants to do for the next team that employs him is be a two-way player like you could argue he should get surgery today both to maximize the amount of time that he can pitch on his next contract and to minimize his absence at least as a hitter next year assuming that he can parallel path the recovery from Tommy John with being a hitter. Like the sooner he gets TJ, the sooner he takes the field in a Mariners uniform or whatever, right?

Like just to pick a team, you know, like that's the one that's like knocking around in my head. So, you know, that's a really difficult conversation and one that I imagine he is having at least partially in conjunction with the Angels, but he's also having to make, I would think, decisions around that that are not in touch with what Anaheim necessarily wants. Because I don't want to accuse anyone in the Angels organization of anything, but like from their perspective he at least if he's hitting like at least you get otani hitting like at least you get to you know you get to sell tickets on the back of that if he you know has tommy john tomorrow like he's done for the year they're not going to have

him hitting while he is in a sling you know i can't really do that he is incredible but even he would have to take a beat to you know to be in a sling for a while. It's such a testament to how singular he is that it's like he gets these diagnoses of, oh, you see Altair, and then he's in the lineup the same day, the next day. It's like, can he keep playing? Later that afternoon. Yeah, usually that's not a conversation. Can you keep playing? No, you're done.

No, you're done. But with him, it is. And we've seen this before, obviously, in 2018, there was that game where he hit two homers right after he confirmed that he would have to have TJ. So he came off the IL after his hemate surgery, he acknowledged that there was going to be soreness. And so the fact that he went back on the IL after there was soreness seemed sort of surprising. Maybe the soreness was worse than he anticipated. But my read on it was basically like, look, we're done now. To add insult to multiple injuries, the Angels also got swept by the Reds in that doubleheader, which left them 10 and a half games out of the third wildcard spot. Their playoff odds, according to Fangraphs, finally flatlined 0.0 percent. And without Tuey Otani the rest of the way, maybe Trout was just like, why play through pain or why do we want Trout to play through pain when it's over?

Right. So maybe we just let him go back and fully heal. That's my hope, at least. why play through pain or why do we want Trout to play through pain when it's over, right? So maybe we just let him go back and fully heal. That's my hope at least. Yes, that is certainly a possibility. With Otani, I think you put your finger on it there. There are so many implications for free agency and for his two-way future that we can discuss here. But we don't know, as you noted, what his diagnosis is. We don't know what the extent of the tear is. There is some possibility that it's a very slight tear

and that he could try to avoid surgery, which he did before, right, in 2017 and 2018, before he even debuted in MLB. It was reported that he had a grade one sprain or tear. A sprain is a tear. It's sort of different words for the same thing. And he had platelet-rich plasma injections and tried to just get through it. And then ultimately the UCL did not allow that. He got to mid-season and then it was a grade two tear. And then he had more PRP

injections and stem cell treatments and took some time off and then came back and had one brief outing and that was that. And then there was more damage and ultimately he had to have the TJ. So if there is a very slight tear, then you could go through that whole rigmarole again and try to avoid surgery. It seems unlikely, you know, not knowing anything, no inside info here, but given his past experiences with trying to avoid surgery and that not really working and then that just dragging it out and delaying the surgery, especially with his free agency impending now. I mean, if he were to try that again, Is free agency impending now? I mean, if he were to try that again, then there's the risk of maybe you get through the whole offseason and it didn't work. Or, you know, he ramps up for spring training and then it turns out he's still hurt or the damage is worse and then he has to have surgery.

Well, then you've cost yourself 2024 as a hitter and you've delayed your return as a pitcher into 2026 at that point potentially or late 2025. So if he has the surgery now or soon, then he could return theoretically early in or at the beginning of the 2025 season. And it maybe doesn't matter that much whether he waits until October 1st, which is when he had the surgery in 2018. He waited for the very end of the season, had the surgery October 1st. He came back as a DH on May 7th, 2019. So he did miss some time the beginning of 2019 and might miss more time with the second TJ if he has to have a second TJ. So, yeah, I could see it go either way where he would want to have the surgery immediately because the Angels are out of it. And if he has it, then he'll have started on the path back and maybe he could maximize

his chances of being able to hit from the start of next season as opposed to missing some time. On the other hand, he might want to play just in order to, I mean, he does have like a home run crown at stake. I don't know whether that matters that much to him. Again, testament to how great a season he's having that he could shut it down entirely today and he would win the AL MVP award. Like there's just, I mean, he's what, three and a half war ahead of the closest competitor. No one's just, I mean, he's what, three and a half war ahead of the closest competitor. No one's going to catch him, right? So from an awards voting perspective, but look, if he wants to get to 50 homers and get a home run title, an MLB home run crown, I mean, I think he

has a 10 homer lead in the American League. Keep that outside shot at the triple crown. Just, you know, keep playing playing he likes playing baseball he likes to give the fans what they want so it's been reported at least that he'll play this weekend and then we'll see he's still waiting for a second opinion so i guess there's there's nothing to lose and if he continues to hit with the compromised ucl then as you said, he could reassure a future team that, hey, yeah, I can still continue to really rake even while I'm coming back from this. Because he hit very well in 2018. In the second half, he actually hit better than he had in the first half while he was

dealing with his UCL issue. 2019 and 2020 especially, he did not hit as well, but he was dealing with multiple issues. He had like a subsequent elbow issue. 2019 and 2020 especially, he did not hit as well, but he was dealing with multiple issues. He had like a subsequent elbow issue. He had a knee problem that he had to have surgery for, and then he wasn't able to work out the way that he wanted to. So he was still feeling some soreness and weakness with the knee. So I don't think that was purely related to the Tommy John recovery process. He had other physical issues going on in 2018 when the UCL was seemingly his only physical issue. He was still mashing. So I think that he could,

but he has just a lot to weigh right now. Like the timing of this, there never would have been a good time for Shohei Otani to get hurt. But obviously, I mean, look, he's going to be fine financially either way but uh but if this has happened next season like in a way it's good because you know he could get the off season to heal and get a head start on the repair and the recovery if he does have to have tj but

it's coming just on the eve of free agency when everyone was forecasting 500 million 600 million and i don't see that happening now. No. No, I don't think I do either, unfortunately. Ben, and look, can I say a thing? And I want to caveat, I'm going to say it in a quiet voice to indicate the relative importance I ascribe to it, the relative importance I ascribe to it, you know? So I won't, like everyone, it's okay. Like I know this doesn't matter. Boy, is this off season going to be a dud now.

Yeah, it's true. That was the main attraction. I guess it still will be, but. And it still will be. And look, I think that there was already a great deal of of squish and like uncertainty in his free agency not in terms of like is otani talented spoiler yes but like he was a he's a difficult case you know unicorns are hard to value and there were as've discussed, like a number of sort of at times conflicting factors that were maybe going to influence where he ended up. He is a singular talent. He is a marketing boon. He is going to be 30 next July, you know. He is attempting this incredibly challenging thing. He is spectacular at it.

Before this week, he has had a Tommy John. There was all of this stuff to throw into the Otani free agency soup. And I think that now, obviously, we have this other looming factor where it's like he's going to be absent in some capacity for all of next season from a pitching perspective in all likelihood and for part of next season from a hitting perspective but also like he has a 181 wrc plus so if he comes back you know as a as a guy who can hit like he's probably going to still be really good. All of that is difficult. But could I see some team or, more importantly, some owner saying, you know what?

Screw it. Give the guy $500 million. He could be on the injured list and sitting in the dugout and he still is going to sell jerseys. People are still going to come see him hit when he comes back from surgery and rehab next year, even if they can't see him pitch every five days, every six days. I've seen talk of like, you know, Jeff Passan was on Rich Eisen's podcast talking about like, and he was not offering this as reporting or like, this is what I think he will do even. Certainly not what I've heard he is going to do. But Passon was like, what about Otani DH and high leverage reliever, right? There are a lot of different ways to sort of Voltron together value from this incredibly talented, charismatic, global superstar. So I don't think that we can

foreclose entirely the possibility that, again, someone's just going to be like, I mean, like, what? Put him in our uniform. What are we talking about here? Right? Like, you can just imagine the business people of every club being like, let us into the room to make the case to sign this guy. Right. Yeah. Ken Rosenthal wrote a column where he said he's still worth 500 million. Now, again, I am skeptical that he's going to get that, but you could make the case partly because let's say it's worst case scenario and he can't come back and pitch or can't come back and pitch at the same level, then he's not relegated to DH forever, right? Yeah, maybe if he's diminished effectiveness or durability, you could use him in a relief role sometimes or he just becomes a full-time position player, probably a defensively gifted first baseman corner outfielder, right? He could still be, right? He could

still be a superstar. He could still potentially be the best player in baseball if he's doing that. So it's not like he's limited to not playing defense if he can't play pitcher. However, I do think if he were not a two-way player, that would sap somewhat from his superstardom, right? I mean, he's still going to be this handsome, personable guy who everyone's interested in, but it's the two-way player status that sets him apart from everyone else. And if you can't count on him making starts on the mound and being able to pencil those days in and get an attendance boost, I think you're losing some of the marquee value and some of the ticket sales, right?

And that sort of revenue increase that you expect to offset his salary. So, you know, part of it was always going to be you're not just getting Otani the best player in baseball who's very valuable on the field, but also you're getting Otani the two-way sensation. So if you think that's less likely, if he just goes back to being a run-of-the-mill really great baseball player, then he doesn't bring quite as much from that perspective and, you know, maybe isn't as big a deal endorsement dollars-wise, right? So I think that does affect that calculus also, but he could still be an immensely valuable, you know, if he were an

everyday gold glove right fielder or something, he could potentially be just as valuable as he is as a DH who pitches every sixth game, right? It just – it wouldn't be quite as compelling and fascinating. But the consolation prize, the silver lining is that I would like to get to see him play defense, right? Because there's every reason to think that he can. Obviously, he did it in NPB briefly. He did it briefly when he moved out to the outfield after he pitched in some games, although much to my dismay, he never got a chance out there. And he's taken grounders at first and taken flies in the outfield in 2020. I'd like to see how great a defender he could be with his speed and

obviously his arm, but I'm hoping that we don't have to see that by necessity. We should also mention, I guess there's some possibility that he could qualify for the internal brace repair that's been gaining in popularity that enables you to return more quickly. It's less invasive. It's more like a nine-month recovery instead of 12 to 15 or 18 if you're talking about a second TJ. But that all depends on the severity and type of the tear, and we just do not know whether he could qualify for that. But there have been players who've had previous TJs who have had the internal brace and have done okay. In fact, Rich Hill is one such player. Drew Rasmussen of

the Rays, he had an internal brace procedure this year after two previous TJs. So that's potentially on the table too. In my piece, in my little obit for Otani's elbow here, I did have some stats on the outlook for second time TJ guys. And the best study that I found on this was published in late 2020. And it was a review of 29 previous studies. So sort of a meta analysis. And it found that MLB pitchers undergoing their first Tommy John surgery returned to play in 80 to 97 percent of cases in approximately 12 months. That range, because I guess that was the high end and the low end in the 29 studies. So 80 to 97 percent of times they came back in about 12 months. And then the return to play rates for MLB pitchers having a second time TJ, the return rates were slightly lower. So not 80 to 97 percent, but 77 to 85 percent. Still good. Still talking about more than three quarters of them coming back and even return to the same level as a pitcher.

But there's considerable uncertainty there. You know, you cannot take it for granted. It is not a guarantee that we will ever see that again. I just think that it really goes to show that we really have to hold on and savor it you know I'm gonna say a thing that is both obvious and like implies an ease of access that I appreciate is not there for everyone but like if this guy comes back and he's pitching and he's coming to the ballpark near you go you should go you, you know, we get special players in baseball all the time, you know, and we have talked a lot on this show about how,

like, I would argue, it's never been better than it is right now, right? These are, there are problems with the game, there are things that frustrate us, There are people who disappoint us in a myriad ways affiliated with baseball. I'm not here to tell you that it's perfect by any means, but in terms of what these guys can do on the field, it's like that commercial. I hate to hand it to the MLB marketing people, but these are the good old days, right? And so when you have the opportunity to go and see these guys in person, if you can, even if you're just like up in a cheap seat, you know, go be in that feeling if you're able to. And you know, I get that sometimes people don't want to go be around other people. So if it

bums you out to go be around other people, that's fine. Make a point of sitting on your couch and really put the other screens away. Really watch these guys because we just never know. We never know when they're gonna be done. And you know, I think we've gotten used to the slow decline. We've gotten used to the long kind of road to being done with the game. And Otani, hopefully, he will get whatever procedure is necessitated by this injury. He will rehab. He will come back. He will dazzle.

And we will, years from now, be like, remember when we were so worried? We didn't have to. Hopefully that ends up being true. But, you know, circumstance can snatch them from us. And he's not dead. We can't stop talking about him. Like he's dead. But like, you know, it can happen. And so I think we really got to soak it in and appreciate it because you just never know. And we got to see this really incredible thing. And we still haven't seen every side of it that we want to, right? We haven't seen him pitch in October, like in the postseason. Again, they fixed the freaking calendar.

But we haven't gotten to see that. And I hope that we will. And, you know, I imagine that, boy, if he wasn't incentivized to like sign with a winner before this, he's sure going to be incentivized now. Because I have to imagine he seems like a smart guy and an introspective guy. imagine he seems like a smart guy and an introspective guy. And I'm sure that he is very keenly aware of how much or how little time he might have left to be the guy that he is capable of being. I imagine he woke up feeling an appreciation for how special that is. So he probably has a sense of that. And if we we didn't before i hope we take time to have it now because like we got ben ben hopefully we'll get to see him again and we'll get to see him be

like all he can be again you know i i feel optimistic that that will be true because if anyone is gonna crush their rehab yes are we gonna, right? Like, if anyone is going to do all they possibly can to be, you know, what they were before, it's going to be him. But, you know, you just don't know. So. Yeah, I don't think anyone would accuse us, the hosts of Effectively Wild, of underappreciating or underdiscussing Shohei Otani. But I have made that exact point when I've been perhaps trying to excuse how much I've talked about him and written about him.

I'm just saying, like, we don't know how long this will last. This is a high wire act. This is a sports semi-miracle. Like, it could end at any moment. It's amazing that it's happened at all. And so I just wanted to kind of keep saying, hey, are you all seeing this? Are you all watching this? Like, don't take this for granted. He made it seem so routine. And he had so many signature

moments and so many amazing two-way games that it began to say like, ho-hum, yeah, another massive home run and, you know, double-digit strikeout game. But that was not normal, you know? So I hope that people were appreciating it. And I really will feel the absence and loss in my week-to-week life because whenever any major star is sidelined, it sucks. I mean, when Trout is hurt or when Ronald Acuna was hurt or, you know, when Fernando Tatis Jr. was hurt, when all these guys are gone, you feel the absence, but you don't feel it like when Shohei Otani is gone, at least for me. I mean, you do if they're your favorite player or if they're on your team, obviously, but I don't know that anyone league-wide, you feel that absence. For me, it's just the epitome of appointment viewing.

It's like I've hardly missed a start of his. It's my wife and I, you know, it's like, when is Shohei starting? Like, we'll look at the probable starters days in advance to plan out. Oh, yeah, Shohei's pitching that day. It's not like we're rearranging our entire lives around it necessarily. But if we're home, if we're anywhere we can watch, we're watching, you know, like it's not slipping our mind on a day when Otani is pitching. It's not slipping our mind on a day when Otani is pitching. And so I'm really going to feel that loss and that absence as I did when we lost two-way Otani previously, right? So it sucks. It sucks so much. It sucks for him most obviously, but it sucks for all of us. He's like a public good.

He's a public utility. We all share in the wonder and the joy of him. So, yeah. And I'm not counting him out. I mean, look, he play led to this or made his UCL more susceptible to springing. This has happened to many pitchers who don't have his two-way workload, but it's got to take a toll. And on the other hand, he said that he's happiest when he's playing two ways, right? This is what he wants to do. And he certainly defied enough doubters and naysayers over the years. And I think now that he's proved he can do it, maybe there's some part of him that would say, hey, I've shown that this can be done. I did it at the highest level. Maybe I just take it easy. I'll just play some first base. I know that it supposedly incredibly hard, according to Moneyball, but it's not as hard as pitching. So maybe back half of my career, just take it easy. Just play a regular position like everyone else. But I have a hard time seeing that he would do that unless he feels like he physically can't do it at this high level anymore. So I'm definitely not betting against him. I think it's more likely than not that he will return to two-way play again. But there are significant doubts. There have been doubts all along about whether he could keep it up.

And obviously after another UCL issue, those doubts are going to be louder and more reasonable than ever. So the question is, for his free agency, does this change how he goes into it? We assumed that he would probably just try to maximize his earnings and go for some 10- or 12-year deal, like the deal that the top free agents signed last offseason,

and then he'd end up with $500 or $600 million. Now, you know, if he wanted to go that route, maybe he could still get Aaron Judge's contract or exceed Aaron Judge's record free agent contract, 360 million. I could certainly see him getting that kind of money or more. But does he do something short term? Right. Is he more interested in a pillow contract kind of deal in a make good, you know, either a one year deal where it's just, hey, I'm going to be a DH for this season. And he could still be a star and a difference maker as a DH. He's been a six win DH. He's been the most valuable player in the league just as a DH this year. So if you expect him to continue to be the best hitter in baseball, then plenty of teams would be interested in his services, even if not as many teams need a dedicated DH as need a two-way player. If you're getting Shohei Otani, then most teams would be happy to have him even as a

DH. And I guess there's some possibility that if he knows beforehand, I'm not going to pitch this year, that he could do what Bryce Harper's doing this year and, you know, eventually play some first and maybe even play some outfield eventually when his arm is up to it. I don't know, because with him, that could complicate the rehab. And if he's still focused on being a pitcher, then it might be safest for him not to throw right and not to get ahead of himself there. But it's an option. But even if he's just a DH, what if he says, yeah, I'll sign a one-year deal or I'll sign a two-year deal and you get the upside of me being back to full two-way play in the second year,

potentially, and then seek to reestablish himself as a fully healthy two-way player, best player in baseball, superstar, and then try to sign the long-term deal, which would not be as big or as long and lucrative as it would have been this year because he'd still be older by then and a two-time TJ sufferer potentially. But he'd still be young enough that a lot of teams would be interested. So what do you think? Do you think it would make sense for him to go to year to year for now, maybe maximize his earnings that way, betting on himself? So I do think that there's something to be said for him going medium term. I mean, I think that the team, I would imagine that a one-year deal is probably not going to be appealing to him because I think that even assuming he, like, let's say he gets, even if he doesn't get surgery today, he gets surgery the day the season is done, and then he's able to return in May or June. And he, you know, he puts up good numbers as a hitter.

And he puts up good numbers as a hitter. He's still going to be in the process of doing his Tommy John rehab. And I imagine that a team that might be interested in him longer term might have interest in being the team that oversees that rehab. Does that make sense? I don't know that anyone has an earned reputation for being bad at the medical stuff relative to other teams anymore. I'm trying not to take a dig at the Mets in this particular moment. But, like, let's say that the pretend for a moment that the Mets are what they were. They might still be. I don't know.

You know what? I'm not a doctor. I'm not a doctor i'm not a doctor but like if you're say the los angeles dodgers and you think look we know we're not gonna get max otani for for the the first you know 18 months of this deal because he has to do his rehab i think you want to be the ones that are like you know you got hands on him and are directing that rehab and are able to put your people around him to help, you know, sort of shepherd that through. So what I could see him doing is a deal that maybe is shorter term and then has like a bunch of options on the back end.

But I also think that he probably will want to do something that, I don't know, I still think he's going to sign a long-term deal. I still really don't think that. Yeah, maybe. And then maybe it has, I think that more likely, I reserve the right to change my mind about this. I know that you're like, no, you're never allowed to change your mind. You have to stick with it. I've never let you change your mind before. I'm so rude of you.

to change your mind. You have to stick with it. I've never let you change your mind before. So rude of you. But like what I could see happening, and I imagine it is more likely than a shorter term deal, is that we see incentives in his contract, sort of like we saw in when Luis Castillo signed his deal with Seattle. There is specific language in there about triggering team versus player options around availability. So they basically built in a buffer for themselves as the Mariners if he blows out and needs Tommy John. And so I could definitely see there being language in there around that so that they try, whoever ends up signing him tries to give themselves some optionality that protects them in the event that he gets hurt again. And, you know, if you think he is going to remain durable and productive as a hitter longer than he is durable and productive as a pitcher,

like that might be attractive to you, right? To secure years on the back end where he might still be able to do something as either an outfielder or a DH. So I could see something like that. And then from Otani's perspective, maybe negotiating in specific language and incentives and escalators around MVP placement, that sort of thing, like we saw with Julio. So maybe what we are doing is taking the two recent Mariners extensions and mushing them together and then giving them to Otani. Not necessarily the Mariners, but like if it were the Mariners, Ben, like that would be, it wouldn't, it'd be fine. You know, like it would be, that'd be fine.

It just like to, again, pick a team. Yeah, I could see him being interested in reestablishing himself as the fully operational Otani before he signed the long-term deal or maybe having an opt-out early on. Obviously, a team would want to kind of capture the value of like taking a risk on him getting back up to speed and then being able to get that reward if he does. But Otani, you know, he'll have plenty of suitors and he can have his choice of destination even now. And so if he wants to build in sort of an escape hatch for himself, I could see that happening. potential suitors just because there are teams that would have been out of the running or taken themselves out of the running if you're talking about a $600 million deal who might be closer to matching his highest offer for a year or two. And you could even put the Angels in that category

because if he said, I just want to have a one-year deal and sort myself out and then I'll make my big rest of career decision when I'm fully healthy again. It might be appealing to him to stay in the place that he's comfortable and familiar with while he's dealing with the rehab and everything. They've seen him through that process before. I guess you could say that the Angels are not the greatest shepherd. I mean, they've had plenty of injury issues. They have, I think, the second most days lost to injury this season. But, you know, they got him through it okay, ultimately. And he'd be familiar with the rehab staff and facilities and everything. And they have a comfort level with each other. And he might say, I'll just stick around and get through this. On the other hand, he has to know that if winning is his top priority, the Angels are even less likely to win without him as his two-way self. So they haven't been able to do it with him at full power. And so with him as just a DH, how likely is that to happen?

So, again, he might just chase a ring if he knows that he's going to be staying somewhere short term. I think that there might be some argument to be made that, you know, he's comfortable, what have you. But I think as we talked about when we were sort of gauging how prudent we thought the decision not to trade him was, I think this Angel seems going to be pretty bad next year. I think it might be really, really very bad next year. Like, I think it might be really, really very bad next year. I think that because he will have been quite recently reminded of his own baseball mortality. Baseball. I was about to sound like I was like from Jersey.

Like I was doing a bad Jersey accent. What was that? Where did that come from? Am I? Yeah. Anyway, leave it in because, you know, sometimes it's the brain and the mouth. They don't always get along. But I think that he'll really want to be with a winner because every season that he's not playing in October, I think is going to feel like even more of a failure to him than it would have previously. So I'm quite skeptical that he will return to the Angels. I think you're right. I wish that we could have been in every front office immediately after this news broke and hear what the individual, you know, what did every ops group think that his contract was going to be like? What was their gut reaction? And were there teams that were like, well, you know, what did every ops group think that his contract was going to be? Like, what was their gut reaction?

And were there teams that were like, well, you know, like, he's not going to make $600 million now. He's not going to make $700 million. Are we back in the Otani business? Like, I want to know who those teams were because you know that there were clubs out there that were like, oh, huh. Yeah. This takes him into our price range potentially. Yeah. Yeah.

Does this open up a gross opportunity? Yeah. No, the Angels have true tire fire potential now. I mean, I'm sorry to say it. It's really bad. Oh, boy. They have the second worst farm system, I believe, according to Fangrass. They have some promising youngsters.

Farm system, I believe, according to Fangraphs. They have some promising youngsters. You know, they have Zach Netto and they have Nolan Chanuel and Reed Detmers and Chase Silseth. But, yeah, weak farm. Haven't been able to win with Trout and Otani. Otani is very likely to leave. I mean, I think the odds of him staying maybe have increased, but from like 1% to 2% or something. I think the odds of him staying maybe have increased, but from like 1% to 2% or something. And then Trout is 32 and can't stay healthy and wasn't his usual self even when he's been healthy.

Everyone else just getting older. So it's looking bleak. And really, their decisions at the deadline, which I don't blame them for, and I'm not second guessing and I'm not saying we're wrong, could not have worked out worse. not second guessing and I'm not saying we're wrong, could not have worked out worse. I'm not questioning the process so much as just the results have been completely awful, right? I mean, they were so fast. And so fast. They were so bad, so fast. Yeah, because they were, the day of the deadline, I think they were three games out of a wildcard spot. They decided to hold on to Otani. They go get Chialito and Lopez and Lyon and Gritchuk and Krohn. And immediately just the bottom falls out, right? They lose seven games in a row right out of the deadline. They were trying, but the team just tanked anyway. And it was sort of representative of the way things have gone for the Angels overall, because I think the kind of consistent theme, and Sam just wrote about this on his sub stack, but where the Angels have gone wrong, it's not really for lack of trying. They could have tried harder and spent more, but they've tried fairly hard. They've spent a decent amount of money. It's just that everyone they go get just immediately sees their career go south, whether it's Pujols or Hamilton or just on and on and on, you know, up to this season, too.

on and on and on, you know, up to this season too. And so I guess fitting that their deadline additions thus far were no great shakes, but seemed like an improvement. They've collectively been about a win below replacement, right? It's just like, soon as you get to the Angels, just the bottom falls out. And then also there's this perception of like, the Angels have had Pete Trout and Pete Otani and they haven't made it work. They haven't surrounded those guys with a decent roster. And that's true to some extent. But as Sam pointed out, they've actually very rarely had peak trout and peak Otani healthy at the same time. Right. Like they haven't overlapped in their best seasons very often. when one of them is out or compromised the other is healthy and vice versa so again sort of symbolic that like they make these deadline moves trout is out then they come back and immediately trout gets hurt again and otani gets hurt like so it's not necessarily that they've had both of those guys at the peak of their powers at the same time often they're only only dealing with one or two, but not at full strength, right?

So just very Angels-esque how this has happened. But I just, I mean, it's bleak, like the outlook for them. I don't know. There aren't that many teams maybe that you would say are like farther away from being good again or from winning, which is tough to say because they haven't won in a while as it is. But it seems like they're in need of maybe a full restructuring rebuild here because I just I don't know how it's going to get better without Otani and Trout seemingly in the decline phase here as much as it hurts me to say it. Right. And their best opportunity for a full-scale shift was for Moreno to sell the team. And then

he decided not to do that, right? Funny how these teams that are like in need of makeovers, it's like the White Sox. Oh, okay. Good job. You made some change in the executive ranks, but unfortunately, Jerry Reinsdorf is still the owner of the team. He's still involved, yeah. executive ranks. But unfortunately, Jerry Reinsdorf is still the owner of the team. He's still involved, yeah. That means that you're going to get more Reinsdorf-esque decisions that got you into trouble in the first place. So often it does come back to ownership, right? That's like the root cause. That's, you know, the poisoned well. And every attempt to change, if it doesn't go to the

bedrock with the owner, then you're just going to keep getting bad decisions over and over again. Yeah, it is the gift that keeps on giving, really. Yeah, I think that, you know, there are other orgs that are in bad shape. There are other orgs that are, you know, scant in terms of talent on their big league roster. There are other orgs that are, you you know there are orgs that are bad at player dev there's there are all kinds of there are all kinds of ways to goof it up and there are teams that are doing sometimes several of those things simultaneously but it does rankle in a different way when you have had these kinds of guys floating through your orbit it's like you

know there are teams that are not good and get lucky and get in the playoffs and they are not one of them. It's shocking. Like it's, it is kind of shocking, Ben. This hurts. Yeah, man, it sucks. It really unequivocally sucks. The fact that the plague has visited my household this week has almost distracted me from the Ohtani news and how down in the dumps I would be about that. I've got COVID to worry about also, but it obviously has sent my spirits low. This is, you know, the nightmare scenario for me, the player I have derived the most enjoyment from of any player in my baseball and sports following life.

any player in my baseball and sports following life. So I feel like I'm always getting greedy with him because he will raise the bar and then I'll think, well, but could he be even better than that? You know, it's like, I think long-term, whatever happens, I'll probably have the perspective to say, what a treat this was. However long it lasts or lasted, at least we got to see this. If you had told me a decade ago that I would get to see this for any amount of time, I would have said no way. Right. So the fact that we were treated to this show and hopefully will continue to be at some point that itself exceeded all my expectations. And when he was as good as he was in 2016 or as good as he was in 2021 and then 2022 and then 2023. So I'm trying to maintain the perspective of, you know, be happy about what we've gotten and anything else we get

is gravy as opposed to lamenting and bemoaning what we're being robbed of here. It's hard not to feel that way because, I mean, kind of cut down the way that he's been in the middle of his best season so far. It's like, this is already an incredible season. He's already far surpassed his value in 2021, which we all thought was the best season ever and wow, unanimous MVP season. And then he topped that last year. He's already essentially equaled what he did last year with five weeks left to go in the regular season. So you don't want to get greedy, but my eyes were pretty big looking at the war paces throughout the season until this and until his recent lack of availability on the mound, just doing the pace projections and saying, oh my gosh, is he going to have a 12-war season here? Like, is this going to

be one of the, you know, not just the most impressive seasons ever, but like actually literally the best and most valuable without even having to make many adjustments for era and degree of difficulty and everything. So, so it sucks that unless he keeps hitting and finishes on a real heater, like he's probably not going to, to reach the pinnacle and the peak that he could have otherwise. And so I do feel kind of cheated of like, what's the actual maximum? What's the ceiling for him here that he has kept raising? Like how high could he have raised it this year? Could he have gotten to 10 war, 11 war, 12 war? How high can you go, right? And now we're not going to find out the way that we could have. can you go right and and now we're not going to find out the way that we could have and taking the broader view of his potential prime two-way seasons we've already lost a lot of them right i

mean he had injuries in japan and you know just as someone who wasn't able to watch npb day in and day out i i didn't get to see quite as as as I would have of the young Otani. And then when he came over here, we just got a taste of it in his rookie year. And then Tuwe Otani went away. So we lost half of 2018. We lost 2019. 2020 was kind of a lost year anyway. But we lost Tuwe Otani that year, right?

So we've already lost a good chunk of his potential to weigh prime and peak. And now we're looking at losing more of it. And that just sucks. You know, it's like this one of a kind figure comes along. I want to get to enjoy him as long as possible. And also, I think it does obviously make it less likely that he can come back and keep doing this, but also that anyone else will come along because it does lead to people saying, I think,

well, he was one of one. He was the unicorn. No one else could do this. And also even he couldn't do it that long, right? I think that's the way that people will look at it. Like even he couldn't withstand the strain of doing this for very long. So you need everything to go right. You need this physical outlier who has the skills to do this. Those guys don't grow on trees. And that's legitimate. Like there might not be many players who could do that. But then I think fewer players will be encouraged and incentivized to try to do that. then everyone will look at that and say, gosh, if he was the best case scenario and even for him,

it was kind of a short term thing, then it might make fewer people even likely to try to replicate his success. And then that's when you say that no one grows on trees. And so, but yeah, I do think that if there are skeptics floating around front offices and player dev organizations, that this is going to reinforce their skepticism. I mean, I guess in some ways it is a comfort that like the way that he broke, it's such a typical way to break because pitchers break all the time. They need Tommy John, you know, and when they get Tommy John once, they might have to get it again. Like that happens a lot. So I think you're right that I'm sure the workload of being a hitter, it has some effect. It seems like it would be ridiculous to assume that it has no effect on his recovery period or what have you. But like, he's just broken a normal way. He broke in a totally normal way. He was like, he went out there, he started throwing, he started throwing less hard, he got a scan, he just tore his UCL. Like, that's a very normal pitcher way to break. of it is what did it did it mean you know i don't think that there's anything in his progression that would suggest that but also you know if what you want is for your incredible he has a 182 wrc

plus hitter to be maximally available and he can get broken in the typical way that pitchers do well maybe you sit there and say you know it helps to have a cannon and an arm in the typical way that pitchers do, well, maybe you sit there and say, you know, it helps to have a cannon and an arm in the right field too. So go out there and do that instead. You know, like that might be what ends up coming of this for a lot of guys who might be otherwise inclined to try. He's leading MLB, all qualified players in OPS Plus and ERA Plus. It's just ridiculous. It's so ridiculous. I'm so sad.

I mean, it's sad. Like there's no other way to really put it. It's just such a tremendous, you know, I did a very loud swear in my living room when the news broke. I said words that, you know, my mother who swears should be like, I don't know, it's a lot that you're doing there with those words. Yeah. So we wanted to talk about two other players who. The news.

It doesn't get better from here. The theme of this episode is players who have unanticipated absences for various reasons that have potentially ended their seasons or careers. And the next one is Steven Strasburg. We will return to Otani when we know more, obviously. But Strasburg is done. He is retiring as a player, which is not super surprising and unanticipated given all of the recent updates about his health and not just his inability to play baseball, but just seemingly lead a healthy, normal, pain-free life. free life I mean his nerve issues have apparently been so severe that he's just had trouble just going about his routine business without pain and without compromises right so it sounds like he is retiring we don't know exactly what the financial arrangement is usually there's some kind of compromise worked out, like with Chris

Davis when he retired, right? When a player has a lot of money and years left on the deal, sometimes they will keep making efforts to return or at least ostensibly be trying to rehab because if they declare their retirement, then they might forfeit the rest of the cash. Usually, though, teams and players will find some way to work something out so that the player can still get a lot of that money and can cease pretending or putting themselves through the ringer trying to come back when they're physically incapable of doing that. So we'll find out. There's a news conference next month,

and we'll probably get the details on the way So we'll find out. There's a news conference next month, and we'll probably get the details on the way that this has worked out. But Steven Strasburg is done as a big leaguer just after his 35th birthday. And I guess the commonality is that he's a player who was just about as exciting and meteoric a rise as as anyone other than otani when when he first came up and was such a phenomenon and one of the most hyped prospects of all time who seemed poised to deliver on that and was similarly appointment viewing and strassmas when he would start right and then he also had tommy john? When he was at the height of that excitement and then came back from that and had on the whole a very successful career, right?

Like you can't say that he was a disappointment in any way in the sense, except in the sense that he looked like, wow, this guy's the best pitcher ever, right? And obviously didn't have the best career ever because of all the injuries. And that was a three-time top five Cy Young finisher or top 10 at least. He had a World Series MVP. You know, he like really left it all on the field in 2019 and was never the same again, sadly, but had that signature postseason in World Series and got his ring and, you know, led the league in some important categories at times. So like just a really good, solid career and disappointing only because expectations were so high for him that, of course, we wanted to see more of the healthy Strasburg.

It's so disappointing when one of these guys comes along. It's like, you could put DeGrom in that category too, where it's like, wow, they're, they're rewriting the rules. Like they're better than we thought anyone could be. And then the UCL snaps. And it's just a reminder that they're mortal and they're subject to these weaknesses and frailties. And it's like, I want them to just continue to do the thing that they're doing. It sucks that pitching is so hazardous to your health. Yeah, it's terrible for you. No one should do it. But when they do it and do it as well as someone like Strasburg, like, it's funny, I feel like, and I'm not accusing anyone of fabrication here, to be clear. But, you you know it feels like everyone in baseball media was at his debut you know like the the number of people over the last couple of days and and you know candidly

over the last couple of years who have talked about their experience of being at Strasburg's big league debut you know it was appointment viewing it was this electric thing and he was just so good he was just so so good he was so good as a college player he was so good as a big leaguer and you know to have it kind of fall apart the way that it did and for it to seemingly so quickly transition from this thing of like well we want him to be like when is he going to be back on the field when is he going to be a productive big leaguer to like can he lift his kids up the way that he wants to, you know, is he able to go about his daily life without feeling discomfort? That turn added like another layer of sort of

sadness to the story that goes beyond just your typical, like, ah, he was never quite the same again, you know, but I hope that you know whenever any of these guys retire and retire sort of not on their own terms you just hope that they will be able to have a piece about it and that the people who watch them will be able to retain like the memory of them at their peak because it was so superlative you know it does make you i think really appreciate like like how special albert pool host's last season was right like how special david ortiz's last season was you don't get a lot of guys who are able to go out on top and like in pool host's case you don't get a lot of guys who are able to sort of

rewrite what we expected their final year to be and to have it be something really incredible. So it's just really, it's just such a profound bummer. Yeah, man. Like he was so good. He was so good. It can just shift on you so fast. You know, it's remarkable. Thoracic outlet syndrome is just really, that will get you when that diagnosis comes. Yeah, it's like, oh, crap. You know, Tommy John, I think that we're like kind of cavalier with Tommy John now. You know, and we just spent the first half hour of this episode making it sound like Ohtani was dead. But I do think that in general, we are pretty we're very confident about recovery from Tommy John now.

And for good reason, like guys tend to recover and they tend to be good when they do and they tend to, you know, come back and you end up in this weird. It's different when guys get their second one. But, like, when a pitcher has had his first Tommy John, and he has come back from that, I kind of, like, almost am like, oh, well, we don't have to worry about him getting hurt again for a while. Which is, like, that's a bizarre perspective to have, because pitching is so bad for you. You can just get hurt all the time.

You can just always get hurt. It's every time they have a start or a relief appearance and they walk away and they are not hurt. It's amazing. Like that's a miracle every time is the perspective we should have on it. But I get so cocky. I'm like, eh, he's fine. You know, it's like, so Ben, you're going to get better. You're going to recover from COVID. And then, and this is clearly not been everyone's experience. And there are plenty of people dealing with the effects of COVID for a long time. So, I don't want to dismiss that. But I will speak for myself, which is like when I finally got God.

Then afterward, I was like, I am invincible. You know, for like a month, I was like, great, fine. I don't have to worry about it actually for the first time in like a couple of years. But like, and I can kind of be that way with Tommy John. It's like, yeah, well, now he's going to throw really hard and he's going to be great. That doesn't always happen. You don't get antibodies to UCL strains, unfortunately. So silly.

You get a new, fresh, strong one, hopefully, but it can snap just like the first one did. A new, fresh, strong one, hopefully, but it can snap just like the first one did. So, yeah, I mean, Strasburg, obviously, the contract did not work out for the Nationals because he barely pitched at all after signing that deal. But it's a loss. And I wish that pitching didn't seem like this Faustian bargain or like it's always just you're suspended over this vast fall, right? Because the harder you throw, the harder you fall, right? Often, I mean, not always,

but if you're a flamethrower who's like at the top of the sport and has the nastiest stuff, then that may make you more susceptible to these injuries. And that sucks. I wish that pitching didn't work that way. I wish when I watched someone who was throwing just incredible pitches that I could just enjoy that without always having the back of my mind that this next pitch could be the last. And it's not always that you can even pinpoint one pitch or that someone

walks off the mound yelling and grabbing their arm. Sometimes it's like that. But with Otani, it wasn't like that, right? It was just like, huh, something doesn't feel right there. It's just this wear and tear, sometimes more than a traumatic event. So that's the way that pitching works. And again, I think there are things that you could do potentially to encourage pitchers to throw not max effort all the time. And that might help if you had restrictions on the number of pitchers on the active roster and you encourage guys to go deeper into games and to hold something in reserve, then maybe we would see a little less of this epidemic. But then we would also be putting some limiters on how high guys can fly, right? We'd be robbed maybe of like

deGrom being as unbelievable as he was, even if it did turn out to be sort of a smallish sample before he hurt himself. So we're either just living with the fact that you might break if you're pitching at that level, or we're robbing ourselves of the spectacle of seeing someone pitch at that level. So either way, you're sacrificing something. It's not great. I wish we could just enjoy this, but it's not just baseball, obviously. Something like football or something, it's an even more acute problem where you're conscious of how people are beating up their bodies to provide this entertainment for you. But I wish it were just not in the nature of modern baseball and modern guys mitigate the risk, but they also want them to throw harder. They want them to throw harder all the time. So there is just going to continue to be this push and pull unless we have some dramatic breakthrough in the way that we are able to treat these injuries, you're going to lose time. It feels like a ticking time bomb every time these guys go out. And so then you're right.

You end up in this position where like you're on a podcast begging Jacob to ground to throw less heart. You're like, Jacob, please, please. We beg you. We simply beg. Like we are presenting ourselves to you to say, please, please don't. And then he did anyway. You know, he didn't. He wasn't like slighting us specifically, to be clear.

But like we did. We did beg him. Yeah. But at least those guys, whatever happens, they gave us just indelible memories, like lifelong memories of like, wow, this is this is the best baseball can get watching these guys in their primes in their peaks right now. The third player who fits into this category, but for a completely different reason, we have an update on Wander Franco, who you talked about with other Ben briefly when the news first came out about him. he was on the restricted list as he's been investigated for alleged relationships with underage girls, right? Girls, it seems like plural, not just one.

One of whom came forward publicly and put allegations on social media. One of whom evidently reportedly went to the authorities in the Dominican Republic. And so there's been an ongoing investigation there. MLB also conducting investigation. So he is now on administrative leave indefinitely. So he's still being paid. He's still accruing service time. This sort of similar to the the trevor bauer situation prior to his suspension where he was on administrative leave as mlb was conducting its investigation but different in the sense that mercifully i guess we don't have to have the every couple weeks the leave gets extended deal here. This will just be open-ended as long as Franco decides to acquiesce to that. This was kind of a joint union and league arrangement. until certain developments happen in the investigation, certain milestones, not completely

clear, but there seemed to be some agreed upon structure here for how long he will remain on the administrative leave. But from our perspective, at least it is, it's not like there's a deadline every couple of weeks where they have to extend this or activate him again. So we still don't know how long he'll be out again. This is, I mean, it's kind of shocking and inconceivable in a different way for different reasons. But again, you have like one of the main characters of the sport, this young guy, who's one of the best players in baseball, still, even with the recent absence, close to a top 10 player with a team that is in the thick of a pennant race here.

And suddenly he's gone and you're getting reporting about quite likely he's done for the season. I guess he's still eligible for the postseason in theory, but it's hard to imagine this being resolved so quickly. You know, even if the resolution were

one that allowed him to continue to play, that it would happen on that sort of time frame. And you've even seen some reports saying he's not going to play baseball again, right? Which, I mean, you know, we don't really know enough to say that, but some people may know more than is known publicly. So you have to do the due diligence. You have to find out what's happening here no one knows if or when he'll be back again. It's, I mean, again, like usually we're talking about injury related absences, not this kind of absence, but you can't count on anything ever. Yeah. I mean, you can't, you don't know what's going on with these guys away from the field, which, you know, I don't say to imply that like they're all engaged in inappropriate relationships with underage girls, but the unfortunate reality of investing time and

feeling and care into people you don't know is that sometimes these are the people they end up being, you know, assuming that these allegations end up proving to be true. So it's just really a bummer. And again, like I think in a different but similar way in some respects, like we want to keep perspective on the scale of it being a bummer for us relative to the people involved. Obviously, like, you know, the girls involved with this and their families are the ones who are feeling the Brunton real impact here, but it's, it just sucks. It really sucks. And it's such a, it's such a gross, awful thing for him to have done if he did it. When you think about the comparable situations and how they played out to try to get a sense of like what we're looking at from a timeline perspective, like the Bauer one is, is obvious, but you know, there have been other instances where you just end up not having these guys available at all because the criminal justice system takes it out of their hands. Like, you know, we might end up looking back on this and thinking that perhaps Felipe Vasquez is the

most obvious cop, right? He didn't end up getting suspended by baseball because he went to jail. So, you know, it's just, it's, it super sucks. It super sucks. So, and it doesn't seem like the kind of thing where we're going to like come away and be like, oh, there was some horrible misunderstanding here. You know, that doesn't seem like it's in the offing given the, the emergence of second, of additional allegations and the involvement of the Attorney General's office in the Dominican Republic. It's just, it seems like a really gnarly bad situation. Yeah. I don't feel like Wunder has kind of captured the imagination of fans the way that other comparably great players have. And I don't know if that's because he plays for the Rays or whether it's just because of the type of player he is. I think like the value is comparable to insert other superstar here, but maybe it's like a little less compelling, flashy, like just skills, tools wise, like he's a very polished, well-rounded player.

Like he's good at everything. He doesn't have weaknesses. But it's a little bit of the, you know, players always get a little underrated if they have sort of a broadly distributed skill set where they're maybe not leading the league and things, but they're just good at everything. You know, like, I mean, you know, he doesn't strike out like he puts the ball in play. He'll he'll take some walks. He's got some pop. He's got some speed, but he's not like a physical outlier in the way that like an Ellie or even a Tatis is.

And he doesn't have like an extreme skill like a Juan Soto's patience and plate discipline writer. He just it doesn't quite leap off the screen or the page, I guess, in the same way. So even though he's kind of been a main character and was like top prospect in baseball and has made good on that and was blossoming as a player this year, I guess he wasn't quite as much a feature of like highlights, you know, quite as gif-able as some of the other young stars of baseball. But it's still, you know, he was expected to be as valuable as anyone in the sport over the next 10 or 15 years. And obviously the Rays were not known for committing to players long term. Obviously, the Rays were not known for committing to players long term. They made an exception to their usual way of operating with him and said, we want to build around this guy and be in the Wander Franco business for a decade or more to come. So all of that is potentially off the table here.

But, you know, as you said, the investigations and what he did or didn't is the most important thing here. But it really does upend your expectations for like what the next, you know, few months of baseball and also years and years of baseball look like if you're having the prospect of being without this guy who you basically had sort of expected to be an all-timer already, even though he's 22 years old. Yeah, I mean, his absence is franchise-altering for Tampa. That's like the least important thing happening right now, but it is a reality. And, you know, he's still the only prospect we've ever aided at Fangraphs. He was second on our trade value series this year. He was someone, you're right, we expected to be sort of a foundational player in baseball.

I agree with you that he, I don't think, has been as visible as others, even players who he has surpassed from a war perspective this year you know i think you're right that when a player's talents are distributed he's getting a big bump from his defense so that certainly is i think a recipe for a player not being quite as stand out because he's he's really good at defense but but the highlight plays aren't necessarily always there. But yeah, he's been kind of good at everything. He's so young, but he had only played, I think, what, six postseason games in his young career so far. So it's just, oh man, sucks. Just really, really sucks. And these guys, sometimes they profoundly disappoint you.

Well, you want to end on a slightly lighter note here because this has been heavy subject matter this episode? Yeah. Okay. Well, Ben, there's been a little tweet going around. There's been a little tweet. And I want to start by saying, I think that this tweet is largely in jest, okay?

I'm not being overly serious here but jay kuda who might be known to our uh listeners you know he does some tweets and he did a tweet he did a tweet about the strike zone and pants and let me tell you the number of different ways in which this uh this piqued my interest as a person who pays attention to the rulebook pays attention to the concept of the strike zone is deeply invested in uh pants and pant related malfunctions really jay's tweet reads as follows we will link to it because there is a visual component to this that i will not be able to quite do justice to because this is radio official mlb rules defines the strike zone by quote top of pants i can't find anywhere in the rules that say a player, quote, must wear pants, though.

So technically, if a batter doesn't wear pants, he will draw a walk every time, a potential new strategy for late in games. And again, I want to say, I understand that Jay is largely kidding here. I get it. I'm not too self-serious. I understand. Now, others have suggested, this is a tweet from a person named joel rule 303c says no player whose uniform does not conform to that of his teammates shall be

permitted to participate in a game so in order for this to work the entire team must remove their pants and everyone's saying this is great we're gonna have just a bunch of butts just a bunch of bare butts out on but here's the thing there are so many different different sets of rules that apply to baseball ben right there's the the official rule book there is the official professional rules which are different than the the rule book these are like a separate set of rules there's a lot more detail in here there's a bunch of stuff that doesn't actually pertain to play on the field related to this. So like, if you're ever sitting there trying to write an article wondering to yourself, where can I find the rules around

free agent eligibility for international amateurs that is in the official professional baseball rules book rules book, we should have a conversation about that. But that's the subject for another day. And then of course, there is the collective bargaining agreement. And I am here to disappoint our listeners. You do in fact have to wear pants. I'm here to tell you that you have to wear pants because in attachment 19, both creatively and helpfully labeled uniform regulations, the second section of this is just pants. It's about your pants. It's about the state of your pants. It's about the state that your pants have It's about the state that your pants have to be in. For instance, they cannot

be so baggy or otherwise sized or worn in such a manner that may in the umpire's judgment interfere with the umpire's ability to make calls or provide the player with a competitive advantage. You technically are not allowed to have your pants pockets intentionally untucked, and I'm here to say, they just let

that one go. They're like, meh. Here is the best part of the pants rule you ready ben in section b sub section 8 every effort will be made to replace in a timely fashion pants torn during the game and maybe you're like that's not enough it doesn't say you have to wear the pants yeah and i'm here to tell you like it goes on so like for, your jersey can't be intentionally untucked. And if it can't be untucked, it means you got to have pants because what do you tuck your pants, your jersey into? You can't just tuck them into your undies. You have to tuck them into your, you have to wear a belt. You can't wear a belt on your undies. Maybe you say you can tuck your jersey into your undies, but you can't wear a belt on your undies. It't have little loops you know and i know that like there are a lot of different kinds of of undies but they don't tend to have belts no you know they so i think that this puts to bed the idea that one could play baseball without any pants you must wear pants and they have to fit and they can't be frayed and they have to be uh untorn you know although they get torn so often they do

really get torn but i think that what they mean is like if you really get torn such that if they get torn again you will reveal your your butt then you have to put new ones on but they want you to do that so you have to wear pants you know we're having we're trying to have a society here and in that society you gotta you gotta cover up your butt in public. You know, that is that's disappointing to me. I when I read the initial tweet, I thought, oh, that's compelling. That that does seem like an effectively wild topic of discussion. And then, yeah, I mean, you mentioned the pants may not be so baggy or otherwise sized or worn in such a manner that blah, blah, blah.

That implies that pants are required. It doesn't, that particular point doesn't necessarily explicitly say that you have to have pants. It just says pants may not be so baggy, right? But what if you have no pants at all? Then I found a loophole. But as you said, I think probably some of those other things you mentioned there. Yeah, they suggest the necessity of pants. Because if you didn't have to wear pants, then, like, why would you care about them being torn, you know?

And the reason you care about them being torn is that they might tear more and reveal a hinder. And I think that they want to avoid butts. reveal a hinder. And I think that they want to avoid butts. Now, we can debate how good a rule it is. I'm not saying it's a good rule. I mean, I think it is a good rule. But, you know, reasonable, well, horny people might disagree, right? Yeah, which is very different from reasonable sometimes. It is a rule, you know. They are so specific in these. And it is always funny to think about like what they choose to enforce versus not. Like, you know, a lot of players have their back pocket untucked that's quite common you know a lot of guys run around with their back pocket um untucked and i have never seen an umpire say you gotta straighten up your pants you gotta tuck your pocket in like i've never i've i've heard grumpy people yelling about that but i've never seen i've never seen an ump be like you come untucked there about that but i've never seen i've never seen it not be like you come untucked there similarly there are rules about like how far a jersey may be unbuttoned and i submit to you ben that there

are a lot of players that are the the raptors testing the fences on this one because the rule this is in subpart c part four jerseys may not be unbuttoned below the bottom of the club logo. And look, I'm here to tell you that Jose Abreu is trying to unbutton his jersey all the way to his belt. Like he just wants that thing open like he is in a Bee Gees music video. Yeah. Luke Voigt has notably had some. Yeah. He's like, here I am.

Yes. I am Luke Voigt. You know, he's I don't know what voice I'm doing right now either. I recognize that it's different than the way I normally talk, but I don't know what here, right? That would work at least once. I remember there was a study several years ago, gosh, a long time ago now about whether players with high socks get less favorable strike zones because of like where the knee looks like it is and the ankle and everything. And it didn't seem like there was any evidence to that effect. I would love just like fashion choices to be potential advantages or disadvantages

one way or another. There is always the deflating just umpire's discretion aspect of all of this where like even if the rulebook didn't cover something, if someone went out there pantsless, ump would probably say, hey, buddy, put some pants on. You know, we're not going to get this game going again like no shoes no socks no shirt no service you know no pants no no game right yeah which

would be unfortunate but but there is that umpire's discretion leeway in there where something really weird happens they can always just say no i don't think so. Yeah. But that's disappointing. Yeah, there's like a whole table in here on page 237.1. What are you doing? You can just give it. It doesn't matter. But there is a whole table in here about the acceptable number of manufacturer logo placements on batting gloves, chest protectors, face masks, helmets, knee guards, shin guards, elbow protectors, the strap of your sunglasses, Ben, you know? And so I'm just here to say, I am not fun at parties.

Also, they're, you know, they really get in the weeds on this stuff because at some point there was some issue. And then they were like, oh, you got to put a rule in there about that. We got to do some. This document is 442 pages long. It's not all about uniforms, to be clear. It's the CBA. There's other stuff in here that is arguably and perhaps obviously much more important than how deep your V can go on your jersey. You know, how deep can your V-neck be?

You know, there's a lot of stuff in here that is worth reading. But one thing that happens when you read all the other stuff is that you read the goofy stuff and then you see a tweet and you're like, I need to be a pedantic bummer because I am Meg and I'm here to say you got to wear pants. Yeah. I aspire to just remove the word fun from the sentence. I'm not fun at parties. Just I'm not at parties.

That's my policy. I might be fun if I attended, but most of the time I'm not even at them these days. Just not going to show up. Most of the time, I'm not even at them these days. Just not going to show up. Look, I'm not pressuring anyone to go to parties if they don't enjoy parties. Some people don't like parties. Yeah, parties can be fun.

I'm contagious right now, so I'm definitely not at parties right now. Yeah, definitely don't go to a party right now. That would be irresponsible. And I imagine even if you didn't feel it were irresponsible, it wouldn't be fun because you don't you feel sick. Well, I had a lot to feel sick about this week, but thanks to all for bearing with us here. And we will end with the future blast, which comes to us from the year 2050. And from Rick Wilber, who is an award winningwinning writer, editor, and college professor who has been described as the dean of science fiction baseball. Rick went a little longer than usual with this one. He had a lot to cover. 2050, big year. Rick writes, those who love the pastime remember 2050

as the year that nearly ruined their game or saved it, perhaps. Sparked by the continuing decline in attendance and audience interest over the past 15 years to Major League Soccer and the English Premier League, La Liga, the Bundesliga, Serie A, and all the other top leagues for global audience attention, Mabry instituted The Clock. That's capitalized The Clock in 2050, with a set time of 2 hours and 15 minutes for the completion of a regular season game. Whoever was ahead at the 2.15 minute mark won the game. The change had been working its way up through the minor leagues for the previous three seasons, and there it had gone well, with most games finishing well within the time limit,

and so the end-game activities rarely took place. During spring training of 2050, though, the clock brought some havoc. Fans wanted longer games in spring training, not shorter. They'd come from a cold and snowy north to a sunny Florida or Arizona to enjoy the sunshine. Glad it's still cold and snowy somewhere in 2050. That seems like a positive sign global warming wise, but they'd come from the cold and snowy north to a sunny Florida or Arizona to enjoy the sunshine, eat a hot dog or two, drink a beer, and watch their favorite players play meaningless baseball in an informal setting, one where autographs were easy to get. Players would chat the fans when the opportunity arose, and the whole experience was a full afternoon of baseball the way it had always been and would

always be until the clock. When the Nashville Rays played the Phillies in Clearwater on March 16, 2050, and the game was called at the end of two hours and 15 minutes, a minor riot ensued among Phillies fans. Oh, of course, it would be Phillies. Still saddled with their reputation they've been trying so hard to rid themselves of recently. Who'd come a thousand miles by plane or laboriously by self-driven automobile to see their players get some autographs, sit in the sunshine, and revel in spring training. Instead, they were told the game was over. Worse, it was a tie. The Phillies and Rays with four runs each. Each team had been given one extra half inning

with a runner on second to break the tie and it hadn't happened. So the Phillies and Rays fans went home wondering how that had happened and what if it had been the regular season. Changes were made once again following soccer's approach by adding in baseball's version of a shootout, your best hitter swings against their batting practice pitcher, five fat pitches for each hitter, how many go out of the park, best of five wins the game. It was ridiculous, just like soccer's shootout had always been ridiculous until it wasn't. Until the fans got used to it and embraced it in soccer and now in baseball, a new version of the game was born, the home run shootout. Historians and Sabre members went more than a little crazy,

and the literary world declared the marriage between baseball and great literature over. It was the end of everything, but attendance was way up, and the viewership audience was way up too, and the owners took happy notice of that, and so began the era of new baseball. Wow. Momentous. Yeah. This is a real watershed here.

The clock. Not just the pitch clock, but the clock. A hard, hard out on baseball games starting in 2050. You can support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild. The following five listeners have already signed up and pledged some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going, help us stay ad-free, and get themselves access to some perks. Blake Gammon, Vicky Ho, A. Quint, Tony, and Mark Goble, thanks to all of you. Patreon supporters get access to our Patreon

Discord group for patrons only, plus monthly bonus episodes, playoff live streams, discounts on merch Thank you. You can rate, review, and subscribe to Effectively Wild on iTunes and Spotify and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash group slash effectively wild. You can follow Effectively Wild on Twitter at EW pod, and you can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at r slash effectively wild. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We will have one more episode this week. It'll be a weekend recording, so stay tuned for that in your feed sometime soon. Maybe a little lighter fare next time. Talk to you then. Listen to Perfectively Wild With Ben Lindberg and Meg Rowley Come for the ball, banter's free Baseball is a simulation

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