Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2058: The POBO That Was Promised

Episode Date: September 13, 2023

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about baseball comps for the season-ending injury of quarterback Aaron Rodgers four snaps into his New York Jets career, the Rip Van Winkle-esque return of Orioles starter John Means after Tommy John surgery, the Mariners’ rough stretch, Meg’s pennant-race anxiety, and George Kirby’s comments about not being pulled earlier […]

Authentically strange and objectively styled, let's play ball. It's Effectively Wild. It's Effectively Wild. It's Effectively Wild. Hello and welcome to episode 2058 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of The Ringer, joined by Meg Raleigh of Fangraphs. Hello, Meg. Hello. We don't often start by talking about other sports, but from time to time, I find it illuminating to bring up some example of something that happened in another sport and kind of compare and contrast, look for comps in baseball. And I was thinking of that in the wake of the Aaron Rodgers injury for the Jets in their first game of the season.

So Rodgers, of course, was this much hyped offseason addition for the Jets, who were featured on Hard Knocks because of the hype about Rodgers. And of course, Rodgers is perhaps past his prime. There were questions about how good he would be anyway or how good the Jets would be with Rodgers. But he got hurt. He tore his Achilles tendon four snaps into the season before he'd even completed a pass. And that's that, right? So they sort of structured their hopes around Rodgers.

The hopes hinged on him. He recruited other players to join them. And now that's all just gone immediately, right? So I was trying to think of some baseball comp for that. What's the closest comp to a player who was a much hyped addition, lots of excitement, who was just wiped off the board immediately like that. And it's also partly just the legacy of Jets quarterbacks, right? They've been so bad for so long, and the Jets have been so disappointing for so long,

and they haven't won in so long. And there were hopes that he would change that. So it's partly the team and the position and all of that baggage that comes with that. I don't know if there's a perfect comp because it's football. This is one of the ways in which I think this is kind of an enlightening comparison in that rarely does one guy get hurt in baseball and it feels like the season's over. Right? Yeah. Right. Like, yeah, you might have some fan reactions or overreactions, people saying that. But rarely is it actually true just because in baseball, no one player really has as much to do with your team's fortunes as a quarterback in football.

Right. That can be make or break in a way that most baseball superstars fortunes are not. in a way that most baseball superstars fortunes are not. Yeah. I mean, like even some of the examples that come to mind, not of guys who immediately got hurt upon signing with a new team. I can think of guys who have gotten hurt like in their first season of a free agency deal, like most approximately maybe Jacob deGrom, right? Yes. But in terms of guys who, like, it feels,

I think it can feel like the season is going to come down to their ability to recover from injury or not. Like, I'm sure if you ask Yankees fans right now, like, they would tell you that, you know, the fortunes of the team were really tied up in Judge, although a lot of other things went wrong. So, you know, maybe that. Carlos Redon as another big offseason addition who just immediately was hurt.

Right, right. But yeah, it doesn't often read the way that it does in football with quarterbacks or in basketball just because there's fewer guys on the on the court at any given time right so it's like if you lose lebron you're you're down a lebron you know and that tends to not go great for a team so so i think that that it's hard to find perfect parallels but i do think that there are are probably teams, you know, if you look back on the season, they were really close to making the postseason and they missed a half season of Mike Trout or whatever, you know, and that feels like it was the difference, the replacement of that play. It's a less direct comp, but yeah, I'm like, wow, it's it was wild, Ben.

Did you watch any of that football game? Of course not. No, but, uh, but I was made aware of it quite quickly. Yeah. I would imagine that the various channels of the ringer went on such high alert that they spilled over into, um, you know, Slack channels that didn't, that don't generally concern them. Condolences to Sean Fennessey and co. But yeah, I asked the Facebook group and the Discord group for any comps that came to mind. And DeGrom was cited several times. Of course, he pitched in six games at least,

but he got hurt in spring training. So it was like, oh, here we go. Although with him, it wasn't even surprising so much as, well, of course, this was going to happen. Right. So that's one. People cited Rodan as well. Again, this is the most recent examples that come to mind maybe.

Another good one was Corey Kluber in 2020. Remember, he pitched one inning with the Rangers. Another would-be Rangers ace who was just immediately, like, after the Class A trade. And he was coming off a third-place Cy Young finish after a first-place Cy Young finish, which was after a third-place Cy Young. Like, he was a super ace at that time. And they traded Class A for him and DeShields,

and then one inning, and he tore his shoulder, and that was that, right? So that was a pretty good one, I think, or a pretty bad one for Rangers fans. And people remembered some that didn't turn out to be season ending, but like George Springer getting hurt early in his Blue Jays career or Derek Jeter getting hurt in the first game of, I think it was the 2002 season, had his shoulder dislocated on a slide against the Blue Jays. So he ended up not missing that much time and he came back and was

good. Chris Bryant last year, although he didn't get hurt until I think late in April. Yeah, he had been playing for a couple of weeks when he was felled. Right. Yeah. Josh Johnson in 2013. Steven Strasburg, of course, getting hurt after he re-signed with the Nationals. Yeah, that feels different to me. It's different. Yeah, it's different. And they had just won a World Series. So that kind of cushions the blow. Although a number of people mentioned Steven Strasburg getting hurt as a rookie, right, when he hurt his UCL. And I think that actually might be the closest comp when it comes to just how deflating it is. When a top prospect comes up and is immediately great,

the Yankees are going through this now with Jason Dominguez, right, who was causing a lot of excitement and had been very good in his early games, and then boom, or sproing, right? He has a UCL injury, and it's not as devastating for a position player as for a pitcher, but still, it's like, oh, man, the future has arrived. Isn't this fun? And then suddenly, nope, UCL. Similarly, Strasburg with his UCL injury just after it was Strasmus,

and everyone was so excited for his outings and everything, and then no we don't get to see that for a while and you never know if you're gonna see that again so maybe that's the best comp just in terms of how it affects your outlook and your optimism yeah i think that's a pretty good one i'm struggling to come up with one that sort of meets those parameters better. But yeah, I mean, like Jets fans, the joy of victory, the agony of maybe a season of defeat, it was not a happy time for them, I am given to understand.

I don't want to delight in anybody's injury, but it is like the most Jets thing that one can envision. And I, as a person who does watch football, was watching that game, Ben, and before Rodgers went down, I was like, I think Aaron Rodgers is going to get hit a lot. And that's not me having profound insight into offensive line play. I think that that was both anticipated and remarked upon by others.

And then I was like, I guess he's not going to get hit very much anymore. He's not going to be able to be out there really. Some people cited Justin Verlander as a 40-ish guy going to New York and then getting hurt before he'd done anything. Although it wasn't season ending when he got hurt. So it was a little different. And yeah, there were some that I had forgotten that were actually pretty good, I think. Like, well, some people mentioned the Edwin Diaz injury this spring, which he was not a new addition. He had been with the Mets, but he had just signed the big contract and got hurt in the WBC. And that was somewhat devastating. So that's not bad. But a lot of people cited players who underperformed like Carl Pav are part of baseball, too. So I guess I'm maybe about to draw a false distinction, but there's something that feels more normal about underperformance. And I'm not tagging any individual guy with that. And I'm not like, well, yeah, like, oh, he's underperforming and like totally normal, though, like him swinging through his butt and then not making contact is pretty normal for him. Yes. But there's a lot of underperformance in baseball and like good players are bad for stretches of the season. Like that's, that's a reality that I think we tend to underestimate, like how streaky guys, some, some guys can be. And then there's like getting sproing, you know, there's just being incapacitated in a different way that i think it

registers differently because just like guys can be streaky in a bad way they can pull out of skids right they can make an adjustment they can tweak their swing or you know learn a new pitch and then all of a sudden they're they're off to the races again but like the injury thing just feels so much more in some cases, permanent for a good reason, or at least permanent for that season. And it can, it feels like portentous,

you know, especially if it's a guy just at the beginning of a long contract. And like, you know, it's like if a guy gets hurt, you're like, well, when's he going to get hurt again?

Like, is this, is this what we're going to have with this guy now? Is this who this guy is? Is he injury prone? You know, it can feel bad not only for this season, but what your imagination sort of extrapolates for future seasons, too. Yeah. Yeah.

And some people cited players who went on to have disappointing tenures with the team, but really year one wasn't actually disastrous. We just kind of forget. People cited Anthony Rendon with the team, but really year one wasn't actually disastrous. We just kind of forget. People cited Anthony Rendon with the Angels. Well, he was actually good and pretty healthy in his first year with the Angels, which was 2020, but still. Or Ken Griffey Jr. That's my honor. Yeah. Ken Griffey Jr. with the Reds, who had a pretty good year, his first year with them. Maybe somewhat disappointing, but 145 games, 40 homers, five and a half war. But we remember the rest

of his Reds tenure, right? Most of his value with the Reds was in that season. And I think, you know, people cited Kyle Schwarber in 2016. Drew Smiley, I'd forgotten after he was traded from the Rays to the Mariners,

just never made it out of spring training and never actually pitched for them. Yeah, didn't throw a regular season pitch. Right. Although, you know, that was Drew Smiley. It's maybe a little bit different. It's not as marquee. Yeah, but like, Ben, they could have used a Drew Smiley.

Yes, definitely. People cited, now this was a good one that I had forgotten, Mo Vaughn signing what was at the time a very large free agent contract with the Angels. And then Wikipedia says he started his Anaheim career by falling down the visitors' dugout steps on his first play of his first game, badly spraining his ankle. So yeah,

that fits the description in terms of it just happened immediately. Right? So that's pretty good or pretty bad. Another one I'd forgotten. This was a while ago, but Danny Tartable with the Phillies. So this is a deeper cut. This is going back.

This is 1997. He was coming off a really nice season, and then the Phillies signed him February 1997. And in his first game, he fouled a pitch off his foot and was out for the next few and then came back for a couple, but had to be taken out again. And it turned out that his foot was fractured and his season was over. His career was over. That was the end of his whole career. So that fits, I think. And then Nick Asaski, I'd forgotten about this too, but in 1990, he signed with Atlanta, coming off a good year with the Red Sox in 89, got some MVP votes.

And then he was diagnosed with vertigo nine games into the season, and his career was over too. So that kind of fits also. So there are some. I don't know that they're perfect comps, but those are, I guess, as close as you're going to come. Probably people were going all the way back to like Ernie Broglio after the Brock for Broglio trade, or we have some listeners with long memories.

But yeah, I think it does come down to that distinction between just baseball and football. It's different and there's no perfect equivalent for a quarterback that just can devastate your season like that. This is why you build from the lines out, Ben. You build from the lines out. Take your word for it. Yeah, that's what the good teams do. Build from the lines out. Josh Donaldson getting hurt after signing his first big twins contract or his big

twins contract in his first game. But yeah, I mean, yeah, there's some good ones here, but I'll link to the thread if you want to peruse all the responses. I did want to, this is kind of the opposite situation, not a player whose hopes, the team's hopes are built around him getting hurt immediately, but a player coming back after a long injury absence to find a completely different circumstance with his team, because we're recording on Tuesday, John Means is making his return to the Orioles after Tommy John recovery, 17 months or so. And I can't really imagine. I didn't ask for listener submissions. But what's a better example of a player getting hurt and then coming back to the same team and just having everything be completely different than when he left?

Because John Bates has only ever played for terrible Orioles teams. Because John Bates has only ever played for terrible Orioles teams. He's never known a good Orioles team that he has personally played for. Like, he debuted in 2018. The Orioles were terrible. They continued to be terrible in 2019, 2020, 2021. 2022, he got hurt in his second start. So when he was done for that year, the Orioles were 1-5 on the season. So they were off to what seemed like another terrible start, terrible season.

And then, of course, as soon as he was gone or later that season, things turned around and they started promoting prospects. And they ended up being kind of a contender last year. And now they're one of the best teams in baseball. being kind of a contender last year. And now they're one of the best teams in baseball. So he's returning. Like the catcher he threw to in his last game for the Orioles was Anthony Bemboon, right? This was before Adley Rutschman was promoted.

So now he comes back. Rutschman's around and Gutter Henderson and Westbrook. It's just like everyone, like everything is completely changed. Not's not that he fully ripped Van Winkle. Like he's been awake. He's been conscious. You mean they didn't put him in stasis during his TV recovery? No, he's not like in cryo recovery or anything. So he's been aware and presumably he's been around the team and he knows these players and everything.

But I can't think of a more dramatic change. Like a guy has a season ending injury, comes back the following season, finds himself on not a tanking, terrible team, but actually a really good team with a ton of promising young players. It's excited to be back and excited to be part of a good team but I wonder if there's a sense of I don't know displacement or alienation it's like how did this happen like do I feel like I'm part of this team I was gone for the entire rebuild that just happened right I want to think about how I say this carefully so that I can be like, you know, kind and not make our Oriole fan listeners feel like I'm snarking because I'm not. I'm not about to snark. And I know everyone feels like our projections for the Orioles have been a season-long snark, you know. I know that that has raised some ire, you know. So relax i'm not so like you're right but also like here are some ways that you're wrong which is that like if you're means like his last full season he was like a what two and a half win player he had that really good year so like he is he is returning to a team that is different but also the quality of the pitching

is not as different as you might think like at least in terms of the starters over a full season i know some there's been better results lately but like okay you know everyone chill i'm i think the orioles are good baseball team i team. I'm not doing a thing here. I'm not doing a bit. I'm not making a point. I mean, I am making a point, but I'm not making a snarky point. I'm not making a mean point. I'm simply saying you've got so many, you know, Kyles floating around

and some of them are guys who on a different team would maybe not make a postseason rotation, but for this Orioles team, I sound like I'm in the Black Lodge. But yeah, so, you know, much is different. Some things are less different than they were. But yeah, it has to be. I mean, like, I'm trying to think, is there a guy who was, like, an injured astro who would be a comp here? Right. But, like, that was such a, yeah, I don't know, man.

It is a strange circumstance. And I would feel, I would feel excited, but I'd also feel nervous. You know, you come in after a long absence, and you're looking in the rear view and those Rays are only three games back. And all of a sudden it's like it's a lot of pressure. So I don't know. But he seems like a together young man. He's throwing a no-hitter. He's cool under pressure. Yeah, it's not like he's coming back and he can no longer make the team.

Like now we're too good to want to employ John Means. It depends how good he is, obviously. But if he comes back and pitches like he did in 2019 or 2021, then they would welcome him with open arms. They could certainly use that John Means in this rotation. So, yeah, if he came back and it wasn't just Grayson Rodriguez, it was like a stacked, like, if it were the pitcher equivalent of what has happened for them on the position player side, where they've promoted all these incredible prospects. Pitching-wise, that hasn't really been the case other than Rodriguez. So he still has a place, right? Rounding into form, Grayson.

He's rounding into form. Just everyone relax. Some people also cited, by the way, Otani, like finding out after Otani signed with the Angels and then having it be reported that he had UCL issues before he'd even debuted for them. Yeah. Although those issues didn't actually sideline him and prevent him from pitching until later in that season. But that was deflating to find out, OK, he's coming over and now he's going to be the Angels. He's going to be this two-way player. And then, oh, but he's already got UCL damage and he's gotten treatment for this.

Well, this is dismaying. And in retrospect, it should have been. It turns out to be dismaying. And in retrospect, it should have been. It turns out to be dismaying. It did eventually cost him time, but a little bit different in that it wasn't like day one. He hurt himself as he was just making his debut. All right. So I know you wanted to get some Mariners fan angst out here because it's been a little bit of a rough patch for your Mariners lately.

And they've fallen out of playoff position, right, as we speak. They were in first place in the AOS, or at least tied for it. They had a couple days where they were in sole possession of first. Okay, don't want to take that away from them. They had that. They could have it again. But right now the Astros have solidified their standing in the standings. Those Astros, you can't get rid of them. You can't kill them. You can't quit them. And the Mariners' position is looking a little shakier than it was the last time we talked. These things can change very quickly at this time of year. But this has not been a change that is to your liking. very quickly at this time of year yeah but this has not been a change that is to your liking no i um i don't care for it you know part of it is like the the drama of the fall you know to go

from a 7 78 winning percentage in in august to 273 which ben that's much worse, you know? It is. Yeah, they're 3-8 in this young month. I guess I wish on some level that everyone could have been in my living room to watch me reacting to their game last night because I had a bad feeling early, Ben. I was so angry.

I was frustrated. This is a game where they pulled out ahead early against a Los Angeles Angels team that is really a big league team in name only. One can only really attribute that to some portion of their roster less than 26. didn't play again. I'm sorry. Earlier in the evening, the Astros had lost to the Oakland Athletics themselves. Barely a big league team. Had been shut out, in fact. You know, Logan Gilbert pitched pretty well.

He had a quality start. It was very dramatic. In the top of the ninth, the Angels loaded the bases. They did not score. But then, good for them, in the bottom of the ninth, the Angels loaded the bases. They did not score. But then, good for them, in the bottom of the ninth, the Mariners loaded the bases and famously also did not score. Yeah.

The Angels pulled ahead in the 10th, you know, on a two-run shot from Brandon Drury. Why didn't they walk Brandon Drury to get to Kyrie Pearce? I mean, like, look, these are questions that I was asking in real time. And you think, well, that's it. It's over. And then in the bottom of the 10th, Julio, Ben, have you seen this home run? Yes, yes.

How was that a home run? How did he hit that ball in that place? And it went out. it went out so far it was this 30th home run so now julio has 30 home runs and 36 stolen bases he's you know he's assured a 30 30 season he might go 30 40 do you know how many do you know how many players ben have had a 30 30 season in the integration era do you know how many not many his age that's for sure i think i saw there were like three something maybe three previous uh players his age who had done that so there have only been 42 other players total now. Some of them have done it multiple times.

You're like, Meg, I am given to understand that some of them have done it multiple times. And you're all right. You're all correct. But it's a small club. Yeah. It's a small club. A-Rod, Trout, and Acuna were the only other members of the age 22 season or younger 30-30 club. He's 22 until almost the very end of this year, Ben, you know?

And so you sit there and you're just like, wow. You know, he went four for five. He had that two-run shot. He hit a double. And then they were almost out of it, Ben. They were almost out of it, but then they weren't. And then, so I felt very frustrated. I was upset, you know.

It feels like it's slipping out of their hands. And you sit there and you watch them lose games to the Reds and the Rays. And you're like, maybe they can't bring their main ball teams. Even though you remember them sweeping the Astros. You remember that, Ben. You remember it. But then you look at their, you look at it. And you look at September.

And they have had one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight games where they have allowed at least six runs. That's too many. Yeah. Pitching has been their strength. Not lately. Uncharacteristic, but yes, not lately. Not lately, Ben. Fandom is painful.

They're tired. They haven't had a day off in a while. And they don't have a day off in a while. And they don't have a day off for a while. Like, they are going to be pretty ragged come October 1st. But like, it just feels bad. And I want to be able to focus on this incredible back half of the season that Julio is having. You know, I want to focus on this young man having, he's having a six-win season. You know how slow he started?

Despite a slow start, yeah. Do you know how, do you, Ben? I remember. I was so mad, Ben. I was so mad yesterday. And I haven't been like that exercised about a sporting loss in like a long time. But I was animated. I was swearing.

I was yelling. Julio hit the home run and I did a like little clap, you know, like, let's go. And then it doesn't matter. But I'm just saying it's frustrating. And I'm not like this isn't a sports talk radio. I'm mad at the player. It's just disappointing. It's just a bummer.

And to your point, you know, these things can change very quickly. Was yesterday's loss for them demoralizing? Yes, I expect so. But they have two more against the Angels. They got a three-game set against Oakland. They do have to contend with the dodgers in between and then like the last from the 22nd of september until the first of october they are just playing teams from texas and so like one imagines that that that's really that's really what it's gonna come down to but you have you simply you simply must in a game where julio rodriguez goes four for five and

hits a game tying shot in extras to give you life you must win and they did not do that they did not win and i felt very demoralized i was so upset and then i realized ben that I had watched all of my recipe shows already. I blew through them on YouTube. I did not have that to distract me. It was too. The other thing about it, Ben, the other thing about it is that it was a long game, you know. And so they kept you late to lose. And that feels bad. It was a three-hour and 19-minute game.

You know how long it's been since I've watched a three three hour and 19 minute game you know how long it's been since i've watched a three hour and 19 minute game well when they lost in a walk off to the cincinnati reds actually actually that was the last time i watched one about that long because that was a three hour and 17 minute long game i'm not angry anymore. Just disappointed. I'm just disappointed. And I do feel kind of demoralized. And I would like this. You know, there are so many guys on that team that I like. They got a great vibe. They have a good vibe, Ben.

And they're getting some good years out of good players. And then they're not playing particularly great right now or at least they're not pitching as great as they could you know and so it's it doesn't feel awesome and you wish that it felt better than it does it's the angels ben they're not it's a why are you why why are you this is why fandom is so difficult because it makes you care and so recently it made you very happy that they were playing so well and now it makes you very sad and now i'm very sad and like here's the thing i understand you have the you have the zombie runner it feels bad it feels bad to intentionally walk brandon drury to get to kyrene paris i understand and i don't know if what i am advocating is actually analytically

defensible but in that moment i sat there on my couch and i said why are you pitching to him why you pitched him you should walk him and get to kyrene Paris. No offense, Kyrene, but like you should do that because he is a less good hitter at this stage of his big league career. You switched to full fan modes. Don't tell me about your win expectancy tables. You got to watch that guy and then i really thought it was gonna be okay though because like the angel scored one run in the 11th right and it was gritchick who did it and i thought to myself first of all has anyone checked up on randall gritchick is that guy okay does he feel okay i would feel very slighted if i were randall gritch, I would feel like I was unwanted because I have recently been demonstrated to, in a particular context of my life, be not wanted. want you to leave, right? Or at least under certain circumstances, but no one else wanted to take you. So yeah, now you feel like no one wanted to. At least if you get placed on waivers and someone claims you, it's like, okay, someone wanted me. Now no one wants me. No one wants you. And so I was like, okay, well, you know, it's, I know, I know how the actual,

like when expectancy stuff works with the zombie runner. And so it's like, okay, if they get out of here with just having a lot of just one run like that's survivable you know and then they had this like really great little play at home with Escobar out and you know Brian O'Keefe is in there catching because they pinch ran for Cal Raleigh in the ninth. And he and Gabe Spire get together on a little out at home. I was like, great. And then it just fell all the way apart, Ben. It fell all the way apart. And so I stand before you while I'm sitting before you and you can't see me because we don't do the zoom, but I am demoralized. So that's the thing. But I,

I would like to just say once again, that Julio is very good. He is a joy, a delight. He has, I'm anticipating your objections to the first half, second half distinction, but he has a one 89 WRC plus in the second half, Ben, you know, ben you know that's that's really very good if you i don't know if you know but

very good so they are out of a playoff position at this particular moment they are tired they i mean i assume i don't know for sure but i would be tired i am tired and i didn't do anything yesterday except get mad and eat chocolate ice cream. So those were things that I did. That's where that's where things currently stand. Other people are disappointed by the performances of their team. Their team, as Michael Bauman noted to me, Bryce Harper has hit several big home runs in games that the Phillies have lost. They're still in a playoff position, but they've had some ones that haven't felt great lately.

It can change very fast, but it kind of needs to do that. You know, it needs to change fast. And I'm not even going to get into the George Kirby stuff because I don't think we need to care about that. I don't know if you heard about this. I am kind of interested in that or your take on that if you have one. Anyway, I hope. I do have a take. Do you want my George Kirby take? Yeah.

Well, let me say I hope that the ice cream helped, first of all. Oh, yeah, it was really good. Also, I guess if we're talking about devastating extra inning losses for teams that are trying to make the playoffs, you've got to throw the Brewers-Yankees game the other day up there, where the Brewers had no-hit the Yankees into

extra innings behind Corbin Burns and others, and then ended up losing that game after John Carlos Stanton hit a game-tying two-run shot, and then ended up losing that game after John Carlston hit a game-tying two-run shot. And then Kyle Gashioka, of all people, had his first walk-off. A little bit different, maybe because the Brewers are more assured of a playoff spot than the Mariners are right now. And also, I think they were going for the sweep in that series, so things have been going okay for them lately. But that's a demoralizing one. You don't see that happen often.

Typically, you no-hit a team, you expect to beat it, certainly if the no-hitter continues into extras. And it didn't happen that time. So there's that. And also, I think it's partly that the Mariners, it just feels like the Astros kind of came together all of a sudden and were like, oh, that was cute, Mariners and Rangers. You were going to make a run at winning this division.

Okay, but they did literally get shut out by the Oakland A's yesterday. So, like, if they are on a high horse, I would invite them to find a smaller, shorter horse. You know, like, just find a tiny horse. We thought maybe this would be the year that the Dodgers and the Astros would relinquish control of their divisions and the Dodgers certainly have not. The Astros might still

but also it's looking increasingly like probably not because they've got Altuve back and they've got Jordan back and now they've got Michael Brantley back which I wasn't really expecting him to come back at all, let alone to contribute when he did. And nine games in, he's hitting like vintage Michael Brantley. He's struck out one time in 31 play appearances. And that lineup was pretty top

heavy without him. So suddenly you stick a Michael Brantley there to lengthen that lineup. And now it's looking like, oh, right, these are the Astros again. Anyway, George Kirby, I did want to get your thoughts on this because this caused a big controversy, right? Especially among old schoolers, among former baseball players who just this was red meat for them, right? Like kids these days, you know,

they were all dunking on George Kirby. So this was Friday. He came out for the seventh inning in a game that the Mariners were winning 4-2 at the time against the Rays. Kirby had thrown 94 pitches, I believe, to that point. Came back out, got a ground out, then gave up a double to Jose Siri, and then a home run to Rene Pinto, and suddenly the game was tied. Yes, and then George Kirby was replaced, and the Mariners went on to lose that game. They did lose that game.

And in the immediate aftermath after the game, Kirby was upset, and he said, I wish I wasn't out there for the seventh, to be honest. I was at 90 pitches, actually 94, and I didn't think I really could go anymore, but it is what it is. So he wasn't just saying, well, in retrospect, I wish I hadn't been out there because it didn't go very well. Maybe someone else would not have given up those two runs. He was saying, I didn't think I should have been out there and I shouldn't have been out there. So he was kind of taking a shot at Scott Service, the manager. And then he ended up having a conversation with Service, maybe multiple conversations with Service. And then he apologized on Saturday. He said,

obviously I screwed up. That's not me. Skip's always got to pry that ball out of my hands, just super uncharacteristic of me as a player and who I am out on that mound. I love competing. Like I said, I just screwed up. So in the way that ballplayers have always lamented, oh, this generation doesn't play the way that we did back in my day, right? You had Roger Clemens and Jared Weaver and Mark Mulder and also like reasonable level-headed people like Brandon McCarthy coming out and questioning why he was thinking that or certainly why he was saying that at least. And then people were then dunking on the dunk by pointing out that, well, actually, Jared Weaver, in your career, you did exactly the same thing in exactly the same situation.

You once wanted to be removed from a game. Anyway, Kirby was sort of piled on by X players and also, I'm sure, by current fans, right? So what was your take on what he said and how he said it? So my take is largely this, which is that there's like the piece of it that I am kind of curious about and don't candidly have great insight into at the moment, which is like, does this, is this a continuation of an existing tension between Kirby and Scott Service? And my sense is no, if for no other reason than like, you know, George Kirby tends to go six, seven innings in games, right? I'm curious if this is a continuation of an existing tension. And if it is, like that to me is a much

more pressing concern for the Mariners as an organization because George Kirby is very good. And I think that he is important to like what they are going to do as a franchise going forward. And so you want him to be on the same page as the org, you want him and the org to have good and productive communication betwixt in between each other, right? right so that question i think is one that is like worth contemplating but like let's assume for the moment that like this is just an aberrant sort of day for him right i think that like he's 25 and he clearly like if i watched that game and he was in a way that is very uncharacteristic for Kirby, like pretty wild early on. He walked a bunch of guys in the first inning of that game. It was clearly like a high stress kind of endeavor for him. He goes back out there. He gives up the game tying home run. I am willing to say that this is a young person who was really frustrated at work and had a bad day and kind of spoke out of turn in a way that he clearly wants back. I'm sure the org would prefer hadn't happened and that like we can just move on from that. I always find the

responses of old school guys in these situations to be interesting because like, I think that the way that Kirby sounded to a lot of people, and I don't think this is like an unreasonable interpretation to be clear, was like kind of petulant, right? Like old school guys have very little patience for breakdowns and emotional regulation that read as petulant and much more sort of sympathy and room for imperfectly regulated feelings that manifest as anger. And I find that contrast really interesting because I don't know that either is like necessarily the most productive means of expressing oneself in that moment. So I think he's like a 25 a 25 year old who had a disappointing day at work and probably was done and i wouldn't be surprised and i i don't think that scott service like

treats his guys badly or is like indifferent to player health or anything like that so that's not an accusation i'm leveling but i would not be surprised if scott service was like we have to save some bullpen arms. Like, please go back out there. Like, you got to eat another inning for us. Because he did settle down after, you know, his first couple of goes where it was like, oh, my God, it's George Kirby. Okay. And so I wouldn't be surprised if Service was like, hey, dude, you got to go back out there.

And then it backfires on them and they lose the game and it's disappointing. And they feel kind of demoralized right now it's like they're malicious like a mag does and i don't know like i think it's really weird that we will like take moments like this largely in isolation and like freight them with all of this meaning about like George Kirby's personhood and like from what we know of him from the beats, like he's incredibly competitive. He takes his job really seriously. He always wants the ball. Like he's not a petulant guy. He's a really intense guy. And I think him being a really intense guy manifested in him sounding kind of petulant and it doesn't have to mean anything more than that and i found the people who were like you know reading into he doesn't want the ball in big situations and i'm like lest anyone forget like this young man threw seven shutout

innings against the astros in the most important game this franchise has had in like 20 years last year. So I think he can rise to big moments. It's just like a bad day at work for a young guy. I don't know, man. Ryan Devesh, who covers the team for the Seattle Times, he tweeted, few players I've covered take defeat and failure more personally than George Kirby. His frustration doesn't dissipate as quickly as others. What he says in obvious anger after a frustrating outing probably shouldn't be defining of him or his commitment to winning. So yeah, maybe don't express it that way or keep that sentiment to yourself. But maybe if anything, it's emblematic of his competitiveness, not his lack of competitiveness. But you'd rather have him say something like that than say,

kick a cooler and fracture his foot in frustration. Not that it has to be either or, but how many times have we seen a Jared Kelvick or a pitcher often come off the mound and punch something and then they hurt themselves? This, it's just a bad soundbite that you can walk back the next day and you're right back out there. And I think that like I understand that the considerations presented to a manager in moments like this are more than just what I'm about to say. So I know that it can't always be or isn't always what ends up ruling the day. But I think in general, if you're an org, you want your guys to have both a good sense of like when they need to be done and feel free to express that to you. Because if we correctly, I think, assume that all of these guys are super competitive,

they all want to play, they all want to help their team win. They all want to be out there. You know, if a young guy comes to you and is like, hey, I don't have it anymore. I don't have anything left in the tank. I think as a manager, you want that. You'd prefer that to a guy being like, oh yeah, I can go back out there. And then in this case, like the result probably would have been the same because scott service is like a back of there but like i think you want these guys to come to you and say it's like it's done i'm sorry you know i i don't know like i think that there are times when like you want guys to want the ball but i think that we valorize confidence without engaging in like a critical perspective on that confidence and I think when these guys tell you they're done it's not because they're like

wimping out you know like it tends to be because they're done and like I think if you watched this Kirby start it was incredible that he went as deep as he did, given how the first couple innings went. Yeah, and his last four starts have been subpar for him, so maybe he's just a little bit gassed. But as you said, this is what he's been conditioned to do. He very rarely goes beyond where he was. His career high in the majors is 103 pitches at a start. And that was last month. So prior to last month, I guess it was 101. In May, as a rookie last year, he never went above 100. Like this is what they have trained him to do.

So that I think is partly, it's sort of like a sign of the times. And I think that's why some of the old school guys jumped on it, like back in my day, which in some of their cases was not that long ago. But pitcher usage has changed pretty rapidly just in the last several seasons. And really the upper tier, the upper echelon of pitch counts and innings, like it's decreased pretty dramatically. And as you said, there's a reason for that. It's because in the past you might have pushed someone past there and they just would have gotten rocked anyway because of fatigue or times through the order effect.

And now we know enough to pull guys. I do wonder whether sometimes it becomes kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Like if you condition someone to expect 100 pitches to be basically a hard limit and you're going to get out of there, well, then you're never really giving them an opportunity to build up their arm to be able to do more than that or to be able to pitch out of a jam at that point. And so in that sense, it's like, you know, we have this whole generation of starting pitchers who don't really expect to go more than seven and they're just airing it out early and then they get gassed early because that's what you want them to do. You want them to be max effort pitchers.

And we've kind of lamented the effects that that has from a spectator standpoint of pitchers. And we've kind of lamented the effects that that has from a spectator standpoint of pitchers getting pulled earlier consistently. So I don't know if that's a good thing for the game. I don't know if you can blame George Kirby for it. But if you have a mindset where like, okay, I'm getting to the seventh inning here, I'm done. Or like, if he's coming out for the seventh inning here, I'm done. Or like if he's coming out for the seventh and he's thinking, gee, I'm just about at my max pitch count here. And that doubt is in the back of his mind in addition to whatever fatigue he's feeling in his arm. Then does that make him less likely to succeed? Because he's just looking over there like, OK, come get me now. Like this is when you always pull me. So then does that lead? Does that kind of exacerbate the fatigue?

Because it's like psychologically, you're like, I never go past this point. Right. So sure. So I could see that being a problem. Although Rob Maines has written about this at BP, you know, back when men were men and starters were expected to finish what they started. It's not like they didn't have the times through the order effect back then, too.

They did, right? Like John Smoltz in one of his many rants about the state of the game today, or probably many of his many rants, has said, like, well, if you don't get the chance to face the third order and go through it a bunch of times, then you're not going to know how to adjust to that and you're not going to have the stamina. bunch of times, then you're not going to know how to adjust to that and you're not going to have the stamina. And Kirby in his career has gotten knocked around when his pitch count is higher and when he's facing the order the third time through. And Smoltz will say, well, you've got to give them the opportunity to pitch through that or they're never going to get good at it.

Except that in his day and even earlier, there was still a times the Durer effect that was very significant. And you just had people pitch anyway because you just didn't have the deep bullpens that you had now, and there was just an expectation that starters would go deeper into games. So I don't think you can chalk it up to it. It's not like we've created the times-through-the-order effect by limiting how often guys go three or four times through the order. Yeah. And like, I really do think that, you know, we've joked before on this podcast about, you know, how George Kirby just doesn't walk anybody. Yeah. You know, he doesn't tend, like you said, he doesn't crest.

He's not a guy who's like got a couple 115, 120 pitch outing sprinkled in there because he's so efficient. He still is able to go deep into games pretty often. But like his first inning on Friday, he walked Yandy Diaz. Then he got a strikeout. Then he hit Harold Ramirez. Then he walked Randy Rosarena. And it was like, oh, well, George Kirby doesn't have it today.

Like he'll go entire games where he doesn't walk two dudes in a game, let alone two dudes in an inning, right? He hit a guy, like, he wasn't able to finish his stuff inside. Like, it just, you know, I really do think this was like a kind of weird, aberrant evening, you know, and maybe felt not great from the jump for him. And I think that the way he talked about it after the fact was like not especially productive. And it does invite questions of, well, what's the what's the dynamic like between you and Scott Service? Like are things okay? When a manager calls out a player publicly, usually you think, shouldn't they have kept that in the clubhouse?

Can't you just talk this stuff out? Works the other way, too. Unless there's something like truly abusive going on that you have to call it out publicly because it's your only recourse, then generally it seems better to hash these things out internally. Right. And so I'm not defending the like outburst is too strong, but like his decision to talk about it the way that he did. And he clearly wanted it back yeah but i i don't know that this is like a thing that we should as divish said like that the idea that this would be like our assessment of his character seems it seems like there's insufficient data to draw that conclusion now i don't know george kirby maybe george kirby's a petulant little jerk i don't know like i don know him, but I don't think that you can reach that conclusion with any certainty based on this. So that's, I don't think he's a petulant little

jerk to be clear. I'm just saying like, I don't know. I'm like, maybe he sucks. Who knows? Yeah. I do wish that it were possible for, for there to be a higher upper limit, like when a starter. Now, as we know, if you're cruising in that game, it doesn't mean you're going to continue to cruise. But I wish it were possible, I guess, for you to get stretched out certain times that we didn't treat 100 pitches as a hard limit in many cases because we've kind of overcorrected where in an effort to go away from pitchers being abused, pitchers being overworked. Okay, we've done away with these really high pitch count games, but we've perhaps gone too far in the other direction. The pendulum has swung so far in the other direction that it's like eye-popping if someone throws 120 pitches.

You know, it's like, oh, he's going for a no-hitter or something. Wow, this is a throwback. They actually left him in there. It'd be nice, especially if you've got a great starter out there, that you could occasionally leave them in a little longer. But it's hard because if you're always expecting to go 100, then you're mentally calibrating your stuff. You're emptying the tank with that goal in mind. It's like if you're exercising, like if you're running a race, let's say, and you get to the finish line and they say, actually, one more mile. Right. Right. That's exhausting. Whereas if they told you from the start that the race was a mile longer, then you could ration your energy.

You could pace yourself. It's like when you have a certain target in mind or if you're doing a certain number of sets or something, or a certain number of reps in a set, and someone says, oh, give me two more. It's like, no, I'm done. I was trading to exhaustion here. That last rep was all I had left, and now you're telling me two more. I hadn't budgeted for that. And so it's similar with starters now where they're thinking, okay, 100 is the absolute limit. And he wasn't quite there yet, to be fair, but he was far enough that you wouldn't expect him to be able to get another full inning probably under his typical pitch count in. And so when you have that in mind from the start and then you're asked to push it a little more, then maybe you're just physically and psychologically unprepared for that.

a little more, then maybe you're just physically and psychologically unprepared for that. So I guess I wish there were a little more flexibility or a little more tolerance for going deep when the situation calls for it. But it's hard, I guess, to ask someone to do that one time when you never asked them to do it other times. So yeah, that's where we are now. That's where we are now. That's where we are now. A bit of other big news, although maybe it falls into the predictable department, is that the Mets are hiring a new president of baseball operations. What?

Yes. And you'll never believe who it is. Is it me? David Stearns. Can you believe the Mets hired David Stearns? Yeah. Everyone sort of saw this coming. The writing had been on the wall for really multiple years, right? Because the Mets had tried to interview David Stearns in 2021, and that was

denied at the time by the Brewers. And then David Stearns stepped down from the Brewers last year, at least, I guess, maybe in a full-time capacity. And as soon as he did that, everyone thought, oh, it means he's going to the Mets. And he said, no, he was taking some time and taking a step back. And he did for some time, right? But no one thought that was the end of his career. And so as of August 1st, he has been able to talk to other teams, I believe. And of course, he's been talking to the Mets and they have reached an agreement. So former Mets intern, David Stearns, making his return to the team. I guess they should have

hired him in the Wilpon era when he was an intern at the time. They could have saved themselves a lot of trouble in searching for a new boss. It's just like the Yankees, I'm sure, regret not hiring me full time after I was an intern for them. You know, just constantly kicking themselves since then. Like we wouldn't be in this plight that we are now. You know, we'd have Ben Lindbergh running the department instead of Brian Cashman and all would be well. Very similar situation with the Mets and David Stearns. So it's a full circle. It's a homecoming.

But one of the most respected executives in MLB, he's been around. He interned for a couple teams. He worked for the Guardians. He worked for the MLB office. He worked for the MLB office. He worked for the Astros. And then he worked for the Brewers for several years where he was able to turn them into a contender, keep them a contender without being a big budget team. They were never a high spending team. They were often not a very low spending team during his tenure. Sometimes they were, but he made them a perennial playoff contender, always in it, despite not being one of the biggest spenders. And despite

not really having a great farm system for most of his tenure, he's just wheeled and dealed and managed to turn some big leaguers into better players than they were expected to be and has kept them in these races and they're still in that situation. So the Mets are hoping to get themselves some of that Stearns magic starting next season. And they have cleared out some of their other sort of higher level ops people as well. So there have been some changes on the scouting side. So this was sort of, I mean, this was telegraphed a million different ways prior to it being made official. But yeah, it seems like they are in position to sort of remake that front office and we'll see how,

you know, that impacts things going forward. But they will be a very modern front office, things going forward, but they will be a very modern front office, one imagines, in fairly short order here. I'm sure that that fan base, which is famous for being calm and cool and collected, will ride the ebbs and flows of that with grace and understanding and no tweeting at all. Yeah, well, Billy Epler supposedly is staying on as GM. So we'll see how he handles that, whether there are any ruffled feathers with someone coming in above him. Although I guess that has also been telegraphed all along. Steve Cohen has been pretty open about wanting to hire a president of baseball operations, really, since Sandy Alderson stepped down. The plan was, I think, for Alderson to help find someone and then for Cohen to find someone to replace Alderson.

So that's kind of been, someone has been waiting in the wings all along. And so now I guess there's some certainty there. He signed a five-year contract, so he's there for the long haul. And of course, he inherits a team that has a better farm system than it used to, certainly after all the mid-season moves they made this year. And I guess another wrinkle to this is that Craig Council

is about to be a free agent, right? As of now, he's slated to be one of the best regarded managers in baseball. I don't know whether this will be a package deal where Stearns will want his own manager and Buck Showalter with a disappointing season this year,

whether they will want to move on and whether Council would even want to do that. But he's had a heck of a run in Milwaukee. So that's another possible byproduct that could come from this. But yeah, the Mets could use, I guess, some of that Stearns magic of being able to make players who are in the big leagues better than they were to have guys who weren't top prospects exceed expectations for them. So I don't know whether Stearns will want to turn this into a winner

immediately and build on the core that they still have in place after that mini fire sale at the deadline, or whether he'll look at this as more of a long-term project with his long-term contract. So maybe we will get a sense for that when he talks to the press and perhaps opens up about his plans. But I don't know. I don't know whether this makes it more or less likely that they will try to turn things around immediately or take the long view. Yeah, I don't know the answer to that. If I did, they would have hired me, Ben. Perhaps.

Perhaps. We can perhaps assume like a rigor to the decision making and an openness to new directions and perhaps a final like scraping out of the remnant of prior Mets regimes that have sometimes like seasoned things that have happened this season in a way where we're like, now we will, we won't ask that question anymore. Maybe, I mean, maybe we will because maybe they're cursed, you know, like we should contemplate the possibility that nothing will change because they're an older roster.

It's going to take a while for the young guys in the farm to get where they need to go. And they're in a competitive division. And even though they came, they've been coming some of the way toward being like a very modern front office in the last couple of years. That stuff takes time from like a hiring and infrastructure perspective. And they're going to have to bring in new people and like all of that stuff can take a while. And those would all be reasonable reasons or they're cursed. And like this team was very successful in 2022. I don't want to suggest they haven't had any success. But now they have the big spending owner, which is what they lacked during the Wilpon years.

And then they went and got a respected manager in Buck Showalter. And now they've gotten the respected GM or president of baseball operations in David Stern. So each step along the way, it was like, well, maybe if we had a better owner, maybe if we had a better manager, maybe if we had better players, maybe if we had a better front office. Not that Billy Epler was not respected, but obviously things had not gone great in Anaheim under him. And so now you're going and getting the top, right? Like this is the number one available guy, I think. So if they can't make it work with Stern's and with Cohen's money, then there will be like, well, now what, right? Like we've tried everything. Like we got money bags and we got

the smart front office guy who's had success elsewhere. So now it's just like, okay, they're removing all the possible impediments to success. And if they continue not to have success and things backfire like they did this season, then yes, you will have to just conclude that they're cursed and there's some inherent metchness that prevents them from ever winning, right? But for now, all you can do is just take away

these other possible explanations and things that were hampering them. So, and you can see why people wanted Stearns or why Cohen would have wanted Stearns because of course it's always going to be appealing to an owner if an executive not just wins, but wins without spending a ton of the owner's money, right? Because we've certainly seen that Cohen is willing to spend money,

that he has a lot of money to spend, but he would prefer not to spend money if he could win without doing it. So I think the highest the Brewers payroll has ranked in Stearns' tenure has been 17th in any given season. So I don't know that the Mets want to get that low or have any reason to get that low. But if they could not be number one with a bullet, then I'm sure Steve Cohen would be pleased about that. And part of that would come from developing players who are making league minimum or are not

making free agent or ARB salaries. And I'm sure that he hopes that that can happen, right? Dodgers East or Astros East, I suppose. But that makes you a top prospect as a front office executive. It's like not just being Dave Dombrowski and maybe delivering a championship or a contender, but also with a high payroll, but being a Friedman or a Stearns and winning without spending a ton of your boss's money. The boss appreciates that. Sure. Yeah. And I think that the, it's always interesting when these guys sort of change teams and are in a spot that has, in theory, a different philosophy towards spending to see like what if it was mandate and what if it was, hey, this is my approach to team

building. And I think we're going to get a good answer to that shortly here. A couple other things. So Pete Crow Armstrong came up, yet another top prospect promoted in this case by the Cubs. And maybe he can be better than Mike Tauchman. Maybe he can at least give them a good glove and center. But we've talked a lot about top prospects coming up, and I don't know if it's new exactly, or maybe it's just a return to the way it usually worked. But it does seem like this is maybe more than in recent years that we've seen top prospects coming up in the thick of pennant races. It really does add something. And we had Eric on to talk about this huge group of prospects that came up just all in August. And we've had several more in September. We talked about Jordan Lawler and

now Crow Armstrong. It's just more and more, it seems like no one's really off the table when it comes to these players being promoted. And it's not just at the end of the season. We've seen them come up early in the season, too, or midseason. And so you look at the NL wildcard race and it's exciting because suddenly you have Jordan Waller with the Diamondbacks and you have Ellie with the Reds and you have Yuri Perez with the Marlins. Like every team has some exciting prospect who came up at some point this season. But this late, like August, September, it seems like we're seeing more of this than we have in recent years.

And I don't know why exactly, but I'm all for it. It's very exciting. I love just like getting a glimpse of the future, but also not just like, OK, teams out of it. We're going to give some guys a chance like Jason Dominguez, for instance. Right. More like, no, we're in the thick of it. And also we think maybe our top prospect can help us immediately.

So let's go for it. Like, I love that. Yeah. It's a time of year that, you know, the pennant races, the playoff races races all of that can add its own excitement and then to have them infused with like new young guys you know whether they are lifting a contender to like a solid playoff footing or you know hopefully not during their ucls but like giving fans of teams that are out of it something to get excited about and and hopefully setting them up to be ready and have adjusted at least a little bit to big league pitching and to come into camp with a real shot to make an opening day roster. It's very exciting. It's very exciting. Yeah. And Joshian wrote about this recently,

and he identified a few factors. First of all, he noted this is not historically unusual, especially when you used to have 40-man rosters in September. So you'd have this huge expansion. And then that was before the massive expansion of pitching staffs, too. So you had more room for position players. And so it was not uncommon to see really good players come up and just, you know, get a taste and a cup of coffee and dip their toe into things in September. But it seems like it's been ramped up in recent years. He thinks it's because, A, maybe it's just a young players game more period these days.

And we have seen the aging curve sort of shift earlier, at least some of the analyses I've seen, obviously, since the PD era, when careers were lasting unnaturally long, perhaps. But maybe it's just, you know, faster and pitches are faster and everything's faster. And you have to keep up with that as a youngin. And that helps a little bit. And also, maybe there's just better development these days. And so guys are getting good training in college. Maybe they're able to get through the minors more quickly. They're exposed to that technology. You have better coaching. It might be interesting to take a league-wide look at just whether prospect promotion has accelerated. But it certainly seems like in some cases, we're skipping some steps or

cutting some corners or maybe not. Maybe it's just taking less time than it used to. So that might be one thing. And then also he says, well, you have the expanded playoff field. So more teams are in it and can convince themselves that they're in it. And so if they still have something to play for when September rolls around, then maybe you're more likely to call up one of these top prospects if you think they had been and to get guys like Julio last year on opening day rosters. And there are some incentives that are in place to encourage them to do that. And then maybe that kind of carries over too late in the season, because if you're planning to have someone be up on opening day the following season, maybe it doesn't really cost you anything to call them up in September of the previous season, right? So they're not going to get enough time to undo their rookie eligibility, but you can just have them get some seasoning so that they're not completely unexposed to the majors when they make their major league debut on opening day the next season, but you still have those incentives

in place because they're still qualifying for rookie eligibility, right? So for all those reasons, maybe the game has changed and also the CBA has changed and the playoff format has changed. All these things are promoting promotion, I guess, right? And that's good. I'm not totally in favor of all of those changes. Like, I still have mixed feelings about the expanded playoff format for one. But if this is one byproduct of those changes, then I'm all for it because I love getting

a glimpse of these guys. And even more so if it's not just like, all right, silver lining of a going nowhere dead end season. We get to take a look at a few of these guys who will be part of the next good team, but no, like they get to be part of the currently good team. That's really fun. It's really fun. It's really exciting. And i'm with you i still have a squishy affection for the expanded playoff format although you know listeners will be like hasn't your stupid baseball team missionary of that expanded playoff format into that i say shut up you know that's that's not the conversation we're having right now is is it? I take it back. Shut up is so rude. That's like easily one of the top 10 rude things you can say with no swears.

Don't you think? Shut up. That's a pretty rude thing. So, you know, I'm not saying cut it out because people should know, like, I'm not perfect, you know, in case anyone was confused on that score. But, like, don't tell people to shut up. That's rude. So, anyway, I like seeing the young guys. And, you know, it's not a flawless system.

And there are still instances where teams are being kind of shifty with guys. And I don't think that we've, like, designed our way perfectly out of service time manipulation of any stripe, but it does seem like people, and by people I mean front office executives, are responding in ways that we want them to to incentives that I, when they were initially proposed, was like, I don't know if this is going to be enough. And it has seemed to be enough a lot of the time. So that's pretty cool.

It was getting pretty annoying, Ben. Kind of like someone saying, shut up. Really time. So that's pretty cool. It was getting pretty annoying, Ben, you know, kind of like someone saying, shut up. Really annoying. So rude. And I guess in some of these cases, it's like maybe a panic move, not a panic move in that it doesn't make sense, but just in the sense that things aren't going great. So let's call someone up like the Diamondbacks are slipping. Okay, let's go get Jordan Lawler or the Rangers are slipping. Let's go get Evan Carter. Yeah, they wouldn't do it if they didn't think it would not make them better. But maybe the fact that they needed some help, right, to reinforce their flagging fortunes.

Okay, maybe we can call up a top prospect. Ben, speaking of Jordan Lawler and the man he displaced, you know what email I got today? What's that? This was from like dbax.com because, you know, I've bought tickets and stuff. Voting is live for the 2023 Roberto Clemente Award. Oh, yeah. Nick Ahmed. Yeah, man. Oops. Yeah. That's like the good guy community service philanthropy award. So awkward timing. Yeah. Given to the player who represents positive contributions on and off the field.

Well, you know, I'm sure he's not the first. That's the on-field part that teams care about the most, unfortunately. That's how it is. Yeah. And last major thing to bring up here. So it was reported by Bob Nightingale that Mike Trout, if he wants to pursue a trade, that the angels would accept it, right? So consider the source here and also consider the player. Is Mike Trout going to be the one who would come out and demand a trade or request a trade?

I don't know, right? He has historically seemed pretty pleased to be with the Angels. He's opted to stay with them multiple times. But things have not gone great for them. But things have not gone great for them. And if Otani is leaving and, you know, Trout has indicated that he wants to have a conversation with the team this offseason to see where things are going. And if they're being honest, I don't know that they can say things are going in a great direction. Right. So, again, this is a short item. He just said the Angels perhaps for the first time are open to trading Mike Trout if he indicates to them that he wants to see him play somewhere else just because if you think the Angels have been depressing to this point, it might get even worse. Because if Otani leaves, as he is presumed to, I don't know that things are going to get better for them in the short term. And it would be nice to get to see him in the playoffs again and get to play for a good team. Thing is, he has $248 million due to him over the next seven years as part of his current contract,

which if he were healthy and durable and still playing at a high level, then teams would be lining up under those terms. They'd be happy to have Mike Trout at those terms. However, that has not been the case for him lately, as we have discussed. He has not been durable, and this season, even when active, he was not his typical superlative self. So I asked Dan Szymborski to fire up the Zips machine and tell me what Zips projects for him and what kind of contract his projection system would project for him. So Zips says that if you were going to give Mike Trout a seven-year contract, that what it quote-unquote should be based on his projected performance is $155 million, which is almost $100 million less than what it is. Yeah. A lot of that is just that it doesn't project him to play a lot because of his recent track record. Start him with 600 plate appearances in 2024. If you just say that he will have basically a full season in 2024, then it goes up to $224 million, which is still a little less than he's due. Right. systems and their projections are similar to Dan's, then in theory, no one would want Mike

Trout unless the Angels were willing to eat a lot of money to send him somewhere. Or if you wanted to get prospects back, then you'd really have to absorb a lot of that contract. And based on recent events, it doesn't really seem like the Angels would necessarily be willing to do that. If anything, they seem more in the salary dump market than the Met style, eat some salary so that we can get prospects back market. Like Dan is saying, and this is kind of depressing, we answered a question last week about what are the odds that Mookie Betts can catch up to Mike Trout in career war. Zips is saying that for the entire rest of Trout's career, he projects to amass about 20 more war in total,

which is two seasons for healthy peak Trout, right? So that's sort of sad, right? However, as Dan noted to me, you never know exactly what teams might do with a player like Trout because he's a superstar and because he's been the best player in baseball and a team might talk himself into he will be again. The way that the Tigers kind of went against the projections with the Miguel Cabrera extension. That was years ago. And maybe that extension has become a cautionary tale that teams have internalized and would not do that again.

But yeah, I guess that's the question. Like, would anyone want Mike Trout with his current contract? What would it take to get something back or to move him? And would the Angels be willing to do what it would take? I think the answer to that is no, they would not. I think the answer to that is no, they would not. I think that maybe this conversation is really different like a year from now if he comes back and he plays a largely healthy season and he's still open to being moved, then maybe it's different.

But like, you know, when we talked about him, I said, I think we think of him as injury prone now. And I think that that's the right way to think about him, unfortunately. And unless they're willing to eat a lot of that deal just to be done, I don't imagine that they're going to really bring much back in the way of prospects that would make it enticing. Like, I think they have to Metz it if, and I mean that in a positive way. Like, I think they have to Mets it if, and I mean that in a positive way. It's so rare that that would be in the market for him, would be thinking of him as some combination corner DH, right? That you got to eat a lot of money for that,

at least if what you want is prospects of any profile. And even then, I think that it would be, it's not that there wouldn't be any suitors for that, but i think that it would be a shorter list than you might think because even if let's say they got it down to exactly what zips projected i don't know that might still feel like a lot to a team when you're talking about a guy who can't reliably stay on the field at this point and probably isn't a center fielder anymore and is, you know, 32 years old. So it happened so fast, Ben. I know. It did.

It wasn't that long ago that we were talking about, like, could the Angels package Mike Trout with Albert Pujols to get out from under the Albert Pujols contract? And now Trout is in the Pujols position. Not quite to that extent. No, definitely not to that extent. He's younger and better and there's much more hope that he could be great again. Yes. But still, it's sort of the same conversation, and that is very sad. It's very sad.

You know, it wasn't that long ago that I was joking, like, look, you know, if they feel like they need to move Trout's contract to trade Otani to the Mariners, like, I guess I'll deal with it. And now I'm like, I don't know about that contract. Yeah. Well, anyway, if you were hoping that this offseason might be spiced up, this slow market that we've been talking about might be enhanced by a Mike Trout trade sweepstakes. Yeah, I'm not sure that the conditions are ripe for that to happen. I mean, it could happen, right? I hope he gets dealt.

I hope he does. If he wants to, you know. Yeah, right. He might just decide, I like being here even though I never win. I'm comfortable. But yeah, for us, it'd be nice. I mean, I hate moving. So I would be like, look, it's not ideal.

And this is going to be a bad team for a long time, but I don't have to pack any boxes. Yeah. Although if you had a multi, multi-million dollar contract, you could say, I'm just going to show up at my new mansion and I will pay people to move everything from my old mansion and take care of everything that normally makes moving a hassle. It's still, even if you have all the money in the world, you've got your family and you've got a kid. You know, you've got to find new schools and you've got to find out what restaurants you like and everything. Yeah. But yeah, I think it's probably a lot closer to painless if you are mega rich.

Sure, yeah. I mean, I think most things are closer to painless if you're mega rich. But yeah, you still have to adjust to a new environment. You know, you have to know like, man, I gotta take this route because it has a protected left. And, you know, I don't really believe in prison

except for people who don't take advantage of their protected lefts when they're driving. So, you know, it's like, it's still a disruption, particularly when you have young kids and he has it, he, you know, he and his wife have a kid. So it's a thing that they have to do. Although I believe that he like lives in the Northeast during the off season. So maybe he's like Meg moving his old hat for me. I am, you know,

I move a couple of times a year. It seems like it would be so terrible. I would. You know, I think about the things that would matter to me as a free agent. And then I'm like, maybe the players should get together and have me signed somewhere because the quotes I would give, like George Kirby could say whatever he wants. People would be, you know, the olds would be on me all the time. They'd be like, that Meg, she's terrible. And I'd be like, yeah. All right. And just a couple of quick follow-ups to things we talked about last week.

First of all, a number of people pointed out that when we did the stat blast where I kept citing wins above average and we kept saying wah. where I kept citing wins above average and we kept saying wah. First of all, missed some great Wario sound bite drop opportunities there. But also, if we went with wins above mean, then it could have been wham. And we could have gotten George Michael song stuck in people's heads. And that might be better. If at some point wins above average becomes more prominent, then maybe we could rebrand from wham to wham. And that might be a bit more palatable. Ben, I think you just got to have faith.

Well done. It's not a wham song,arr song to the George Michael song that people will constantly bring up. And also speaking of the market this winter, which, as we've said, seems to be dominated by Asian players. Also, Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched another no-hitter. So the stats that I cited recently, now his ERA is down to 1.2 something. It's ridiculous. So this was his second career no-hitter with Brian Cashman and other MLB executives

in attendance. So, yeah, the bidding is going to be off the charts for him. And it's not even just that you have multiple prominent Asian players

who are going to be free agents this winter, but also some of the recent players like Hasan Kim, for instance, didn't immediately translate to the majors, but now he's a star, right? Yeah, terrific season.

He's been fantastic. And Seiya Suzuki, right? Again, like had some injuries, took some time to maybe acclimate to the league, but he's been great lately. And we talked about Senga recently and how well he's made that transition. So, again, like among the prominent players and Masataka Yoshida, who I guess has been as defensively challenged as advertised. But the bat has been pretty solid. Right. pretty solid, right?

So you have to go back to, like, I don't know, like Yoshi Sutsugo or something for, like, the last guy who just, like, didn't really. Man, I haven't thought about Sutsugo in a long time. Yeah, he's been bouncing around, but he just didn't really translate, didn't really pan out. But for the most part. Is he on 40 minutes or more?

Man, he's been on and off, and I forget exactly where he is right now. He signed a minor league contract with the Giants on Monday. This was August 21st. That on Monday, according to Susan Slosser. So he appears to be in double A with San Francisco at the moment. Wow. All right. Yeah, the fact that I'd lost track of him entirely,

that sort of speaks to how things have gone for him. But for the most part, even if there are some initial growing pains or stumbles in the transition, these guys have made good. So, yeah, I'm excited to see the sweepstakes for some of these players this winter. And then also we talked about second careers for big leaguers and what a good second career, not even like a side gig, but kind of a full-time second job would be. And a couple people have pointed out musician would be a good one. And there have been some.

And there have been some. So, ad Patreon supporter cited Lee May, who was a player in the 50s and 60s and 70s and was also the lead singer of Arthur Lee May and the Crowns in the 50s, a doo-wop group. Terrific. Of course, pretty famously, too, we got an email from Dave about Scott Radinsky, who's a lead singer of the punk rock band Pulley. And, you know, that's a prominent band. And he's talked about, Dave writes, the similarities between playing baseball and performing music in terms of being part of a team, being on the road, and feeding off the energy of the crowd. So, yeah, I mean, it's performances. It's often, like, sort of the same schedule, yeah, I mean, it's performances. It's often like sort of the same schedule, like kind of nocturnal, you know, ballplayers, at least these days, playing a lot of night games. Musicians are usually going to be playing concerts at night. So you're always like living out of a suitcase and waking up late, right? So a lot of similarities there. And I guess

some flexibility, too. I mean, it would be tough to, like, be touring and on the road as a musician and a ballplayer at the same time, as we discussed with Ben Gibbard. He can't really watch Mariners games and also be the front man of Death Cabin Postal Service at the same time. They're trying to resolve that conflict for him. I guess that's true. Yeah. Might not actually turn out to be a conflict as it happens. I guess that's true. Yeah. Might not actually turn out to be a conflict as it happens. But yeah, if you were, you know, you have the flexibility to like, okay, it's the baseball off season getting their guitar out or drumming or whatever it was like the Yankees. I grew up watching having Bernie Williams and Paul O'Neill.

But then some of them have legitimate second careers as professional musicians who are not necessarily like a two-way thing where they're full-time players and musicians at the same time. But like Bernie Williams going on to be a Grammy winner, right? Or, you know, there are a lot of Bronson Arroyo, right? Like there are a lot of examples of that kind of thing. Yeah. I mean, like, I think that, well, I don't know. I'm given to understand that like there's maybe a meaningful gap between Bernie Williams and Arroyo. Is that rude of me to Williams and Arroyo. Perhaps. Is that rude of me to say to Arroyo? I don't mean to slight him, but like, I mean, like,

Williams is like a classically trained guitarist. Yeah. He's a Grammy nomination, you know. Yes, Grammy nomination, not winning. And I guess it was a Latin Grammy, but yeah. You know, he, like, if he got out here's there are a couple kinds of musicians for me and in like my interaction with them in real life they're the they're the folks who get out their instrument i'm like cool and there are the folks that get out their instrument i'm like oh this is what our evening's gonna be eh and you know i don't say that second one out loud because

again rude but uh i i think that if if bernie williams got his guitar out i'd be like oh cool let's see what you got bernie you know that would yeah yeah all right and then lastly we answered an email about what if a switch hitter decided selectively to hit from the same side against certain pitchers? Would that make sense? Yeah. And we kind of came down on the side of probably not. The question was like, if you had a pitcher with reverse splits, might it make sense for the switch hitter to hit from the same side?

And we thought, A, you don't have that many guys who have true reverse splits. It's more common with pitchers than with hitters, but still you need a bigger sample size and everything. Or at least you need to have some indication based on the stuff and their repertoire that they might have true reverse splits. And we talked about the Joe Maddon precedent for you might have a same-handed leaning lineup against someone who throws a lot of change-ups, let's say a pitch with platoon splits, that kind of thing. And we talked about how it might not make sense because if you're a switch hitter, you're

used to pretty much always having the platoon advantage. And so it might be disruptive for you to hit from the same side, even if the pitcher's characteristics seem to support it. But it was pointed out to us after that episode that Tommy Edmund of the Cardinals has basically been doing this this season. I was unaware of this, but he has been like a selective switch hitter. He's been, I guess he called it a switch switch hitter, right? So I guess he experimented with this in 2021, but he's been doing it more regularly this year where, again, going by the pitch characteristics, he'll be a switch switch hitter or kind of a pitcher by pitcher switch hitter or a flipped switch hitter. Derek Gould wrote about this. Those are great names.

Yeah. Terrific descriptions. To the article, but he said this was earlier this season. It's almost like a learning process trying to figure out which guys I feel comfortable hitting right on right against and which guys it doesn't make as much sense. I think the more experience I get doing this, the more wisdom I'll have. doing this, the more wisdom I'll have. And basically, like, he was struggling, I guess, hitting from the left side against righties. He wasn't really slugging against them much. And he had been exclusively a right-handed hitter as recently as high school. And so he started looking at what pitchers might he do better against right on right, not looking just at

splits, but like pitch shape and pitch types and release point and angle and all of those things that it's easier to analyze now than it used to be. And so Ali Marmal said he's experienced hitting left-handed against certain pitchers and seeing that from a result standpoint, there's a style of pitcher pitcher that gives him trouble and he's a smart player, and he's going to play the odds. If that pitch gives him trouble, it's the pitcher's strength, and it's my weakness, then I'm going to hit from the other side. Being smart about who you do it against gives you a higher chance. So he started doing it. He tried this in 2021 against Tyler Maley, who had an off-speed pitch that Edmund thought his right-handed

swing would be better against than his left-handed swing. So now he's been doing it more regularly. And I don't know if you can say that it's working really well. I mean, looking at his splits, I guess it's not backfiring horribly. So as a right-handed batter against lefties this year, he's been pretty good, 789 OPS versus right-handed pitchers as a lefty. He's had 263 plate appearances, 683 OPS, not so great. appearances 683 OPS not so great but then he's had 56 plate appearances so far versus righties as a righty and in those plate appearances he has a 670 OPS so sort of similar to how he's done versus righties as a lefty but worse than he's done versus lefties as a righty. So I don't know, based on that, if you can say it's necessarily working or not working, but he's been doing it. And that seems very unusual. I'll have to try to look up if there are precedents for a switch

hitter, like a predominantly switch hitter having this many plate appearances, 56 plate appearances where he's hitting from the same side and just choosing not to switch hit and having this many plate appearances, 56 plate appearances, where he's hitting from the same side and just choosing not to switch hit and get the platoon advantage. So unusual, but I thought this was a hypothetical question. And actually, it's been happening this season. Who knew? Someone knew, but we didn't know. Bernie Williams wrote a book that has a foreword by Paul Simon, and he got a Bachelor of Music from the Manhattan School of Music in 2016. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. He's got credentials. Yeah. He does have credentials. His book is about the link between musical and athletic performance. So I think that if we are interested in this question, we should maybe read Bernie Williams' book. Yeah.

Or we should talk to him. One of my favorite players. It would be a pleasure for me. Yeah. or we should talk to him. One of my favorite players. It'd be a pleasure for me. And also SwitchHitter, who I don't think ever did the Tommy Edmund SwitchHitter thing. We'd have to ask. Yeah, or actually, look,

I guess he's got 23 career plate appearances versus righties as a right-handed batter. Maybe. Unless that's a data error of some sort. At some point, he did. He tried it.

Cool. All right. And we will end with a brief future blast from 2058 and from Rick Wilber, an award-winning writer, editor, and college professor who has been described as the dean of science fiction baseball. In 2058, Spanish and Italian baseball teams made a statement about the global health of the game as Real Madrid bested AC Milan in dramatic fashion

in the seventh game of the European Division Series, coming back from a drubbing in Game 1 to win four straight, two of them in Milan and the next two in front of the delirious Real Madrid fans in their new 40,000-seat Telefonica Field baseball park, built next door to Santiago Bernabeu Stadium, home of Real Madrid soccer. The global audience was near the billion mark for the two famous clubs' first meeting in the European Divisional Championship Series, led by star pitcher Alvaro Torre and the hot bats of the Lonzo brothers,

Hugo and Mateo. Real Madrid then took four straight from the Asian division winners, the Oryx Buffaloes, all on the road in Japan before coming to America to battle the Los Angeles Dodgers, who put up a good fight but couldn't contain the hot bats of Los Blancos and went down in six games. Spanish baseball had arrived, and it's a truly global game. I hope that there's faster air travel in this era or there's going to be a lot of travel time and a lot of jet lag potentially. Yeah, we got to learn about teleportation.

All right. Well, I guess we've established that we don't have to do a Mike Trout trading game episode the way we did with Otani. It would be sort of sad. The winning team's offer might just be I will take Mike Trout and his contract. Not quite as fun as putting together a package of top prospects.

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