Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2138: Our Favorite Offseason Moves

Episode Date: March 15, 2024

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Dylan Cease trade, the post-trade outlooks for the Padres and White Sox, and the incomparably chaotic Padres POBO A.J. Preller, then (31:22) discuss who the best pitcher in baseball is with Gerrit Cole on the shelf, Shohei Ohtani’s wife reveal (41:33), and (49:34) ESPN’s planned on-screen win […]

Hello and welcome to episode 2138 of Effectively Wild, a Fangraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Rowley of Fangraphs and I am joined by Ben Lindberger, The Ringer. Ben, how are you? I'm deeply appreciating AJ Preller. Yeah. We're going to miss him when he's gone. Yeah. I am almost rooting for the Padres at this point just to preserve his job security, just so that he can keep his job and keep surprising us at every turn. I'm just constantly shocked, and we shouldn't be shocked by anything A.J. Peller does, because at this point, we should have learned our lesson. But man, that guy, he will just pull a trade or

a signing out of his sleeve that we will never see coming. I think that if I had been asked to rank my potential landing places for Dylan Cease, that I don't know that San Diego would have been in my top five, candidly. And yet, Dylan Cease is a San Diego Padre. He is not currently in South Korea, but will be soon. So there you go. On February 12th, Chris Goetz, White Sox GM, was asked about Dylan Cease

as he was frequently throughout this offseason. He said, I expect him to be our opening day starter. So A.J. Preller even surpassed Chris Goetz's expectations. He can surprise anyone, even the person who had to trade Dylan Cease to him. So, yeah, there had been some rumors connecting the Padres to Cease in recent days, but they definitely weren't the leading destination throughout most of the winter.

And why would they be? Why would they be? The rest of the Padres offseason did not make you think that they were the team that would go and get one of the best pitchers available on the trade market. Definitely not. What else would lead you to believe that they would do that? Right. Because I will remind you that they traded Juan Soto to the New York Yankees. They did. And how often, I wonder, maybe this is stat blastable, but when was the last time a team traded away its best hitter and then acquired its projected best pitcher in the same

offseason? And one prospect, Drew Thorpe, was involved in both of those trades. Yeah, how about that? The Yankees, who were connected to Dylan Cease all along, they actually helped the Padres get Dylan Cease indirectly by trading Thorpe helped the Padres get Dylan Cease indirectly by trading Thorpe to the Padres. Just incredible work by Preller here. I don't know whether the Padres will make the playoffs, will contend, we can talk about that,

but man, he just always makes it interesting in one way or another. So the Padres got Dylan Cease here for, I guess we could say three of their top 10 prospects, probably, plus reliever, swingman, Stephen Wilson. So the three prospects that the White Sox got here, they got Drew Thorpe, who I just mentioned. They got Jairo Uriarte, who is also a promising pitcher. Some say even a higher ceiling than Thorpe, kind of a different type of pitcher, just electric stuff. Yeah, he is ranked ahead of Thorpe for us at FanGraph, so thanks for that. Opinions differ on those guys and also on the third prospect in the trade,

who is still a teenager, Samuel Zavala, who is further away from the majors. But three promising prospects and yet not their top prospects. This is a knack that the Padres have had under Preller. You got to give him credit for this, if nothing else. He just keeps making prospects. He just keeps making prospects. Yeah. He traded an entire farm system's worth of prospects to put together the contending Padres and then kind of quietly rebuilt the system that was cannibalized to build that where he can subtract from that system and trade three guys for Cease and yet not touch the top few Padres prospects. So it's like three of the top 10,

but none of the top three, at least, right? So that is pretty impressive. Just the volume, the quantity and quality of the prospects that he has come up with. And not all of those guys have panned out either for the Padres or for the teams they were traded to. But one way or another, he has managed to keep collecting young talent that entices other teams to make trades with the Padres. And that's a skill, at least. It's amazing, really. And it's funny when you think about some of the other similarities, like how the guys he hangs on to tend to be shortstops and then they stop being shortstops after that.

right? They did deplete much of their system. And then, you know, some of it was acquisition, right? And bringing guys in who had previously been Yankees or whatever. Some of it is like the natural blossoming of Ethan Salas. So, you know, it's not entirely being driven by external transaction activity, but yeah, they like, they kind of, they move some guys around. I'm still not convinced that they know how to develop pitching, but that's a conversation for another day. And now two of those guys are just not their problem anymore, I suppose. They develop pitching by trading prospects for pitching. Right, right.

I don't mean to suggest that they have said to me personally, Meg, yeah, we struggle with that. But you're right. It is one way around that potential problem perceived or real to just be like, you know who we know can pitch at the big league level? Dylan Cease. So let's go get him. Yeah.

I mean, like, if you're in New York, I feel like knowing that Drew Thorpe helped A.J. Preller to secure Dylan Cease's services, like, that's an intrusive thought if you're Brian Cashman, right? Like, it has to be. in CESA services. Like, that's an intrusive thought if you're Brian Cashman, right? Like, it has to be. That has to be a 3 a.m. thought

because they are in, you know, a little bit of a fix now. We said yesterday, very casually, like, all right, just go spend some money. And they should do that because they're the Yankees. And like, come on,

like, be adults. Like, be serious, right? But as Jay Jaffe noted when he wrote about sort of the state of affairs with Cole, like, you know, they're into that upper tier of luxury tax. And so bringing Snell in, for instance, like has meaningful tax and draft pick ramifications for them. Now, we could argue like, you know, you have Juan Soto.

So like maybe just don't care about that. Maybe decide you don't care. Or maybe go up to Jordan Montgomery and go, we were kidding about you not being a playoff starter. We were so wrong. What gooses we were. They already did that with Marcus Stroman, right? Where Cashman said that Stroman wasn't an impact pitcher or whatever. And now he's gone.

Yeah. They mended their fences. You know, sometimes people are forgiving, I suppose. Yeah yeah it helps to offer someone many millions of dollars right kind of yeah eases those uh strained relations right yeah if i were jordan i would be like so feels like i'm in a good bargaining position here but yeah it's interesting for like to return to the San Diego of it all because they're the team that actually got DeLincis. It's an interesting move because I don't think that it materially alters their chances in the NL West. You might need to do some reevaluation them versus, say, the Arizona Diamondbacks. But in terms of their ability to unseat the Dodgers,

I don't know if this changes things. I do think that it helps them quite a bit when it comes to their wildcard chances. I would simply say, Dylan Cease is also very useful come October, I would imagine. I will say once more how nice it is to just say October baseball.

And we know what that means, Ben. We know exactly when that is and what it refers to. It is a great relief. Yeah. The Fangraphs playoff odds still have them as worse than a coin flip to make the playoffs, like a 42% chance to make the playoffs. But this certainly helps. As Ben Clemens noted in his write-up, Cease is sort of a right-handed, slightly less extreme

Blake Snell, also a high strikeout, high walk kind of guy. And he's coming off a down year for him, certainly, at least given the surface stats, the under the hood peripherals were a bit better. But he was great in 2022. He has been solid for a few years now, fairly dependable, not someone who's going to give you a huge amount of innings. Again, just comped him to Blake Snell, but he has at least taken his turn in the rotation, which as we've discussed recently, means very little when it comes to actually being confident that a pitcher will continue to take the ball. But he has at least 2021 through 2023,

32 starts, 32 starts, 33 starts. That's what you want. And this is not the first time that Preller has struck on the eve of a season. In fact, he's cut it a lot closer than this. He's made some major moves and trades on the eve, like literally, I think the eve of opening day, his first

spring as GM with the Padres is 2015. He made that trade for Craig Kimbrell and BJ Upton on April 5th. And then just two years ago, he got Sean Minaya on April 3rd and Taylor Rodgers and friend of the show, Brent Rooker on April 7th. That was so like, this is early for him. He's like, yeah, it's still, it's mid-March. It's the off season. I mean, I know the Padres season is about to begin, but for most teams. So you just, you can never count the man out. And just kind of stepping back and looking at the Padres off season as a whole, it is kind of confusing because they were both sellers and

buyers and looked like they were. Come on, go on. Yeah. So clearly there was a mandate to cut payroll here and they did. And so that was the driving force behind the Soto trade. If you want to contend, and clearly the Padres still intend to, typically you don't trade your best player, even if that player is an impending free agent typically you don't trade your best player, even if that player is an impending free agent

and you don't think you can keep him around. So it's hard to get better when you are subtracting Juan Soto and also when you're losing a lot of players to free agency. So they lost a huge amount of their innings from last year just walked because of free agency they lost snell presumably unless preller has another surprise up his sleeve ben i would laugh so hard i would make a sound that people would find rude were i at a high t you know i'd do a cackle i think i would it would be so funny i want it to so funny. I want it to happen now.

I really want it to happen now, Ben. They also lost Lugo. They lost Waka. They lost Nick Martinez. They lost Josh Hader, of course. I'm trying to resist a Waka joke. Waka, waka, waka. It's just hard to weather that and emerge with a good team and a good rotation.

And somehow they have done it. Now, they certainly lack depth. Drew Thorpe was going to be part of their depth, like the return for Juan Soto was going to be a big part of their pitching staff and still is really. But they're projected to have the sixth best rotation in baseball right now. That's not bad, given all that they lost. I mean, Cease, Musgrove, Darvish, Michael King, that's a pretty darn solid top four. It really declines quite quickly after that. After that, yeah.

Like, wow. Yeah. But if they were to keep those guys healthy, then that'd be a pretty nice group. And they still just, they have so much star power, it's still sort of stars and scrubs-y, but it would be tough for them to have really punted on this season when you still have all the stars that they have, especially on the position player side. And that was why it was so weird. It's like, okay, they lost Soto, but they still

have Tatis, and they still have Kim, and they still have Kim and they still have Bogarts and they still have Machado, you know, on and on and on. And they still have those guys. And Kim is going to be a free agent at the end of the year, or at least he is eligible for free agency. And I guess what they have done is they have gotten under the competitive balance tax threshold. So they're at 224 luxury tax-wise, according to Roster Resource, and the lowest tier is 237. So mission accomplished, I guess, if that was their goal. But they remain a contending team. They have Cease and King for two years now. So even though Soto is gone and Soto was only under contract for this year, Kim is only under contract for this year. I guess it extends their window slightly, at least in theory, just because they have the two top pitchers that they went out and got for 2025 as well. So on the whole, I guess,

given the constraints, the spending limitations, and I suppose some of the self-imposed inefficiency when it comes to getting returns for the spending that Preller has had recently, I guess on the whole, you kind of have to say decent job. The Padres have emerged looking, I think, worse than they were last year. But it wouldn't surprise me if their results were better. I think maybe the true talent of the 2024 team might be lower than the 2023 teams. But of course, the 2023 team was just historically unlucky, unclutch, whatever you want to call it. And so it would not surprise me if the underlying stats were weaker for this edition of the Padres, but they won more games than the 82 they pulled out with a late season hot streak last year. Yeah. And then we'll all be sitting here a couple months from now being like, what happened?

And we'll need to remember this episode because we properly diagnosed what happened. Yeah. I feel like this is a phenomenon that we need to keep good track of, you know, the coming and going phenomenon. And some teams are better at executing it than others. I think it has a lot to do with what your sort of floor is. Like, it's easy to be the Padres and do a little coming and going and then still be a good team. But if you're like the Red Sox and you do a little coming and going and you have some work to do, then you're like kind of still meh, you know? Like, you can still be mid.

I don't know if I'm using mid right. I don't know if I understand mid as slang. So, I'm going to try to not use it because what is that about? it because what is what is that about um but it does seem like there are more teams that are trying to execute this approach to give themselves the optionality to like make a basically make a decision at the deadline based on what the first half yields right like would it surprise me if you know if this team dramatically underperforms and is bad, they have some guys who they might move at the deadline to further bolster the farm system after these departures. But if they're in a good spot and they're under the luxury tax threshold, they probably still would prefer to stay there. to stay there, but if they're in a really competitive playoff spot and they think there's a guy out there who has salary attached, who's the difference? Well, okay. Like we're making

an informed decision to, to push back over that limit again. And, and so it gives you some like optionality when it comes time to decide like what kind of team are we come, you know, July or whatever it is. So, you know, that's, it always nice to have choices, to have options, and to make sort of intentional decisions around the luxury tax stuff. I don't know that they will change their mind when it comes to that, but the argument is more compelling if

you're like, you know, we did what you told us to do in the offseason, we moved some guys, and hey, look at this, we're like in the top wildcard spot. We're kind of giving the Dodgers the business a little bit. Can we we go at a guy to like make the difference and then ownership goes sure aj you know i think sarah langs pointed out that this is the first white socks padres trade since june 4th 2016 james shields for fernando tatis Jr. So if we're going to balance the cosmic scales here, I guess some prospect that the White Sox acquired here

should turn out to be a total superstar. And then it'll be payback for giving up Tatis for Shields. Yeah, speaking of intrusive thoughts, you know. Yeah, yeah. Well, we should probably talk about the White Sox side of this briefly. It's a little less exciting. It's just kind of depressing to talk about the White Sox just in general these days. And I guess it's good that our Yankees and White Sox team previews are still to come. We will probably get to those next week and we will have much to talk about. But I guess it's seen as a solid return for Cease, right? And Ben Clements mentioned in his piece that maybe what we've learned or we've seen reaffirmed this winter is that the return for stars isn't as high as people are hoping. Soto, Cease, Corbin Burns, they got

traded for prospect packages where you weren't necessarily getting a true tip-top prospect or some sort of generational talent. And maybe you could say that's because, well, Burns and Soto, they're entering their walk years and sees he's coming off kind of a down year. But I think it is true that maybe teams are a little less likely to part with their true blue chippers now. They want to keep those guys. They want to build around them. They want to sign them to extensions.

They're not going to give them up for a year or even two of team control. But the White Sox certainly bided their time, and they talked a good game in recent weeks about how, oh, we're preparing for Seas to be our opening day starter. And maybe, I wonder whether when they said those things or when Getz said he expected him to be your opening day starter. And I wonder whether in Chris Goetz's heart of hearts that was actually the case when he said that in mid-February. I'm sure they had ample opportunities to trade him earlier. And as it's been reported, the Yankees were unwilling to part with Spencer Jones in a deal for Cease. So they just held him. And I guess that could have backfired. They could have held him too long and other teams might have found solutions. But ultimately, injuries happened and A.J. Preller happened. And they found a taker. And I guess they did fairly well, right? I mean, it doesn't seem like a swindle on either end to me. I think it's fine. It struck me at the time as a little underwhelming. And I might be being influenced by the way that like our prospect team views Zavala, which is down relative to consensus. You know, Eric has pretty real concerns about his hit tool

and his ability to hit going forward although it seems like he has taken steps forward defensively and might be a viable center fielder which you know if that holds would kind of rejigger his profile again and in a pretty meaningful way so in that respect it maybe feels a little light but they got two top 100 guys. We are, I think, relative to other publications higher on Iriarte, right? And we like, too, like, they're both 50s. Maybe my expectations were unrealistic because even though you're getting two years of cease, I'm like, you're getting two years of cease. You know, you think about this package relative to, like, what the, you know, brewers got for Burns. And it's like, isn't that different than what the brewers got for Burns. And it's like, isn't that different than

what the brewers got for Burns for one year of Burns? I don't know. Maybe that's an interesting conversation to have. But they did get two top 100 prospects. They got an interesting young guy. We'll see what they can make of him. I'm also trying to evaluate this group of guys sort of on their own merits as they currently stand versus what the White Sox have been able to do from a player depth perspective, which is not always the most. But I don't know how fair it is to tag them with that, them being these individual players because you just don't know and like zavala's like 19 like there's a lot of time for him to become something so i think that like uh if you've made the decision to trade cease and i think that that's a defensible position for the white socks even though it sucks for the fans because it's like this this team is not going anywhere and they're not like a year away, you know?

Yeah. If you thought that you were going to be able to turn the fortunes of this team around quickly, then like maybe hold on to Cease, at least until the deadline, and see what you can get for him. I think they probably maxed out what they were able to get, especially since New York wasn't, you know,

going to part with Spencer Jones, it sounds like. So I think that like they did fine. You know, I don't, I'm not looking at this going like I can't, but they got got like those White Sox, they're always getting got, you know, I don't, that's not my read of this. It feels a little light to me because I am inclined to like agree with our prospect team. And so it's like, eh, Zavala, like, what is that? But this is a reasonable return. If I wanted to be a little galaxy brained about it, eh, Zavala, what is that? But this is a reasonable return. If I wanted to be a little galaxy brained about it, which why not? You could point out that Drew Thorpe has been traded twice in three months. But also, he got traded the first time because he's a good prospect. And he was one of their better prospects, to your point earlier, who wasn't their top guy. This allowed them to move a guy who is very talented

and can help to command a big leaguer like Dylan Cease without letting go of Salas or Jackson Merrill, etc. So I don't want to read too much into the timing of that. I think it's more a quirk of the Padres system and who they wanted to really hold on to versus like, oh my gosh, Drew Thorpe is actually secretly terrible. I don't think that that's like the right read here. So, yeah. Right. He's reputed to have maybe the best change up in the minor

leagues, right? But he doesn't throw super hard. Right. He does not throw super hard, although he was throwing a little harder this spring relative to what he had been doing previously, but still not like super hard. It's like a low 90s look. So. Yeah. So whenever a player moves around a lot, there's the glass half empty and the glass half full interpretation of that. It's no one wants me or it's a lot of people. So many people want me. Yeah. And with prospects, I've done some research that cram built on that and did some more rigorous research that showed that historically speaking, it hasn't been the best sign when a prospect gets dealt because you figure their team knows more about them than anyone else does. And so if they decide that they're expendable, then that maybe doesn't augur so well for their future. Then again, if you're being traded for Juan Soto, that's not really, it's not like they

were just giving up on him or something. Sometimes you've got to give up a good prospect to get a Juan Soto, even if King was part of the centerpiece of that trade. So I don't know. It also is possible that maybe that information imbalance has shifted somewhat. I'm sure that teams still know more about their own players than any other organization knows about them. But maybe the asymmetry there has been reduced slightly given that teams have so much information on everyone now. given that teams have so much information on everyone now, just you've got stat cast style stats for the minor leagues. And so it's not like a mystery how good anyone is. I mean, yeah, you might not know as much about their makeup and what they're like off the field and that sort of thing. And that's certainly important. But skills wise, even though there's less in-person pro

scouting going on, there's technology that has replaced the people who used to do that basically in the high minors at least. And so you get good data'd be nice if they had a better left fielder than Jerks and Profar, or they're trusting Jackson Merrill to go from double A to starting center fielder. They sure are. They are sure doing that. When

they traded Juan Soto, they didn't really have a replacement. They didn't even have a Joey Manessis ready to step in and be better than Juan Soto immediately, at least for a short time. That happens. Remember that that happens. We can never take that away from Joey Manessis or me. But they don't have a lot of outfield depth or talent beyond Tatis there. So that's obviously a hole. I don't know if Proer can patch that or has the money to at this point.

And then from the White Sox side, do you say, well, this is it. They have to do the complete teardown now. The guys that got here, at least the pitchers are fairly close to the majors and Wilson is in the majors. They could maybe try to have him start or they could flip him, but they don't have, I guess, that much left that would be that desirable to teams, just given all the injury issues that, say, Moncada and Jimenez have had, and then Andrew Vaughn's failure to break out. But they do have Luis Robert Jr. Now, he is obviously under their control for a few more seasons because they've got team options, I think, through 2027 on him. But will they be good by 2027?

He's the one guy on that team who could really bring back a big return because he is under team control. He is a star. He potentially could be even better than he's been. He's underpaid probably relative to his performance if he continues to play well. So if they decided to part with him, they could get a lot back and maybe that could help change the trajectory of the franchise. But it would be bleak in the short term. Yeah. And like, look, I we've talked about this with other teams before like i i just made the case like it makes sense to trade delincis you're you're not just a year away i think that the

calculus changes pretty meaningfully with with louise forever junior like i i get that they could get they could get a lot i think i think they could get ben i think they could get a lot, I think. I think they could get, Ben, I think they could get a lot for him because of the combination of things you described. Like the team control is profound and lasting for a little while. He is so good. And he is so good with the floor of like just superlative, you know, 70 or 80 grade center field defense, right? And so when you're-

He's still 26, yeah. Yeah, he's young, he's young. He's so young. Like he's not gonna be 27 until August and you know, you can keep him around. And I think that the combination of like your ability to keep this guy in the org for a long time with a skill set that even if the bat were to become an issue again, his bat has come and gone. There are times where he is—last year, he struck out almost 30% of the time.

Now, he hit almost 40 home runs. He was still a 128 WRC plus hitter. But it's come and gone. There have been times when the swing and miss has been a real problem, but he plays such incredible center field defense when he's healthy that it's like, keep that guy. He also, I think what I was going to say is falls into this category of player for me where it's like, you can justify retaining him from a roster construction perspective because he can still be part of your next good White Sox core.

And he is so fun to watch. You owe it to your fans to keep this guy on the roster because a lot of what they're going to see on the South side in the next couple of years might be pretty bad. But he's really good and he

can continue to be really good into the next little bit where like he you know your team is hopefully going to be better so if it were me like i wouldn't i wouldn't move him and the good news is like there's no rush right like they don't have to make a decision about him he's there's no rush, right? Like, they don't have to make a decision about him. He's going to be on the roster for another couple years. So, you know, I guess maybe if you get really blown away by an offer, sure. But I don't think there's any rush to make a decision.

You don't have to move him. And, like, you should keep him around so that your fans have a fun and really talented guy to watch because a lot of the rest of it isn't necessarily the best. Yeah, and you don't even have Jason Benetti to ease the pain anymore. Yeah, if you're letting Benetti out the door, you got to keep a couple of your good players around because somebody's got to be there to give people a thing to cheer for. I just think that every team should have, you know, every team should have an obvious Jersey guy, you know, not from New Jersey. I mean, he can be from New Jersey and he

can be obvious about it. But I think that every team should have a guy where when your kid walks into the team store and they look up at the wall after they've said, why are they like that now? Can't they be better? Why are the letters so small? They should move the little logo back up. But after they've gotten over the initial shock of how bad the jerseys look, there should be a guy whose name is like, yeah, of course I want his jersey. And of course I feel goodbye in it. Every team should have to have one of those. If we're going to have mandatory all-stars, we should have a mandatory Jersey guy. There.

That's my platform for commissioner. That's why Mike Trout must remain an angel forever so that they have their obvious Jersey guy. He's getting what he wants, you know? Isn't that nice? Isn't it? Yeah. Yeah. So let me ask you this.

We have not heard any additional news about Garrett Cole since we last spoke. He is meeting with Dr. Neil Elitrosh today as we speak, possibly. So I'm sure some sort of news will surface sometime soonish. But let's say that Cole is compromised. We know he's obviously going to miss some time. In his absence, however long that absence lasts, who is the best pitcher in baseball? Oh. Just a tough question to answer. That's such a fun question to answer.

Yes. Sam brought this up in his sub stack the other day. And then independently, almost immediately after that, one of my editors at The Ringer brought up that very same question about just the difficulty of determining who the best player or the best pitcher in baseball is. I don't know that there is an obvious satisfying answer. There are some candidates and I don't know that I could clearly pick one.

Can we talk about some of the options? Because I, I'm going to admit something to you, Ben, you know, I didn't really have a lot of time to do prep for our draft. So if we end up stretching this out for half an episode, it'd be fine. Okay, so let's talk about our potential candidates.

Do you want to go through some names? Should we go through some names? Sure. So you've got Spencer Strider. You've got Spencer Strider. Spencer Strider is exciting also because he's brought back his college curveball. So he's been as good as he's been as basically a two-pitch pitcher. And now maybe he's going to have a viable third pitch.

What if he has a third one? Strider, you've got Wheeler, yes, who we discussed recently when the Phillies signed him to an extension. And as we noted, over the past few years, whatever war you're using, Zach Wheeler may very well top the list of most valuable pitchers over that period. I guess you've got his rotation mate, Aaron Nola, in the mix, though he's not coming off as strong a season. You probably have to talk about Yamamoto, even though we have not seen him pitch in MLB yet,

but he is that kind of pitcher. You've got Logan Webb. You've got Corbin Burns, we just mentioned, even though he is maybe not quite at his best or hasn't been lately. You've got, well, some young guns, some up-and-comers. We've, Tarek Scooble was basically the best pitcher in baseball for a good portion of last season. We could just go with the, the AL central guys who dominated down the stretch last season, Tarek Scooble and Cole Riggins.

They're your best pitchers in baseball. I don't know who else, uh, Gossman, I guess. Yeah. He's have his, uh,

tired shoulder lately, but he might be in the mix. Seattle's own Luis Castillo probably should be mentioned. Who else amongst the Seattle arms would you like to mention? Because I could make a case. I don't know how credible it is, Ben. But, like, you know, you you been paying attention to George Kirby? I think George Kirby's pretty good.

I think by the end of the season, I wouldn't be surprised if George Kirby was Seattle's best pitcher. Wow. Shh, whisper. Okay. I've reached the point of being overwhelmed with how much I have to do before opening day,

where I'm actually really zippy and feel light and fun. And then next week when we record, it's going to be obvious that I've thought about eating my own hair. So we're in a good spot for Olmec right now. Yeah, you're in the high before the crash comes. If you look at the depth charts projections at Fangraphs, you might almost be surprised by how high certain names are. Pablo Lopez, sixth highest projected pitcher war. Fran Brevaldez, 10th.

We talked about him on the Astros preview. He, he, both of those guys, those guys among qualified starters last year were 10th and 12th respectively by our version of war. And they were like 4.5 and 4.3. So this is the same guy. You know, this is the same. That's the same. Everyone, that's the same. Zach Eflin, 13th.

Zach Eflin was a top 10 pitcher. He was a starting pitcher for us last year. You know, he's in the top 10. Man, that signing looks really good. I was so worried about that signing. I was like,

he's going to blow out immediately or have to go to the bullpen. No, amazing. Good job, Tampa. 177 innings, Ben. Yeah, the Rays made a rare expenditure that was pretty pricey

by their low standards. And it worked out really well. Of course, it worked out quite well. And as you mentioned, the projections love Shota Imanaga. So he's like 15th projected. And then you've still got Bieber, although.

And, oh, Zach Gallen, we should have mentioned before now. We should have mentioned him before now. I'm going to get side-eyed when I go to chase. Yeah, Glasnow certainly on a per-inning basis. It's more a matter of how many innings from him. Jesus Lizardo, Justin Steele, Carlos Rodon. Lots of like, if healthy guys here. I mean, I think it probably comes down to Strider, Wheeler, Webb, Yamamoto, Burns. But the point is there just there isn't an obvious answer here. I think Cole would have been your consensus answer before the injury. Even if he's not quite Pete Cole, he's close enough. He has a long enough track record. He's always in the mix as one of the best pitchers in baseball. So if you had to bet on anyone, it probably would have been Garrett Cole,

even if it wouldn't have been an overwhelmingly strong choice. But I just, I don't think there is an overwhelmingly strong choice. Projections wise, Strider and Wheeler are tied at 5.0 projected wins. And I guess it's a matter of no one has really separated themselves

from the pack. And also the ceiling is just lower. We've talked about this. We've talked about the death of innings eaters, the fact that even the best pitchers, they don't pitch that many innings anymore. It's hard for them to stand out. It's hard for them to accrue a lot of value. a small sample at this point for pitchers and then there are all the injury questions so it's hard to count on anyone everyone is perpetually just returning from an injury or perhaps on the verge of one so i don't know i guess i guess i'd go with strider just based on the fact that he's a lot younger than wheeler he's got this third pitch working here. Yeah. But, you know, it's like not a super long major league track record for him. He surprised people when he showed up and was as great as he was right out of the gate. And he maxed out at 186 and two thirds innings last year. There was no pitcher who was worth six war, according to Fangrass last year. There were like 10 position players who were at or above that level. So it's just, I think being the best pitcher in baseball just doesn't mean what it used to mean. case that, say, Clayton Kershaw had as of a few years ago. Or I don't think there always probably

is a clear-cut choice like there was with Kershaw or like Mike Trout was among position players for a while. But I think there's both a higher ceiling, you know, no pitcher projected for more than five were. There are how many hitters? i guess nine hitters projected for more than that and acuna at the top with 7.4 and you could make a case for other position players but based on the projections at least there's a little bit of daylight between acuna and then judge and soto and muki etc like acuna is probably your consensus favorite at this point assuming his knee is okay but I think this reflects both just a temporary fleeting these things are sort of cyclical sometimes there's a clear best sometimes there isn't sort of thing but also this is what pitchers are now it's just

hard to get excited about any particular pitcher. Yeah. If I could offer you a different perspective on this, right? You're right that there isn't, you know, the obviously best guy. But I think that we are in an era where you look at this list and you're like, wow, there are a lot of really, really talented starters in the big leagues right now. And sure, maybe they aren't projecting quite the way that guys of yesteryear did, but I think a lot of that is volume. And the guys at the very top of this list, they're still going 180, 170. It's not like they're not burns-ing it from the year that he won the Cy Young. So I think it's actually very exciting.

And I agree with you that it's Strider, probably, and he might get better. And also, he pitches like he has just gotten off a horse, you know? Like the stance makes it look like he's just come down from a horse. So that's fun, you know? Yeah. All right. Well, I guess we'll go with Strider then. Yeah.

It's just, it's hard to say. It's just a big mass of talented pitchers, and I don't think anyone stands out above the others. So I will be curious to see if anyone separates themselves from the pack this season. Whether if we revisit this conversation at the end of the season, whether the answer is any clearer than it is today. Maybe Cole reestablishes himself. Maybe someone has such an incredible year. Yeah, right. Could be true. That could happen. Strider, the best pitcher in baseball, the best human character from Lord of the Rings. Said human.

You did. Human. Everyone relax. Important caveat. Yes. Okay yes okay a couple quick updates shohei otani after surprise revealing that he had a wife has now surprised revealed who the wife is the showbiz were obviously all over this but it has now been confirmed that Shohei's wife is Mamiko Tanaka, the normal Japanese woman who married Shohei Otani. Just a normal, normal 5'11 former basketball playing Japanese woman who is married to Shohei Otani. And there was a lot of smoke in the rumor mill about Mamiko Tanaka being Shohei Otani's.

Oh, yeah. She was the leading candidate. She would have been by far the betting favorite. When Portia was on, I mean, she was already suspecting that it was Tanaka. She didn't think it would be confirmed. She didn't think that Otani would go public like this and just post a picture yeah photo by the way it's it's ipe otani's interpreter and his wife and then shohei and his wife and then yoshinobu yamamoto and his interpreter holding hands because i guess

that's really good i assume that yamamoto is single and that was a joke, but funny. It would be great if it were. It would be funny if we look back. I want to be clear. I say this with all the levity and all the lack of information one possibly can, but it would be funny if we all look back and we're like, this was actually an important picture for a different reason. Yes. But yeah, I think that they were having a little funny so yes and there was speculation about this because uh otani had dropped some deets he said that his wife was two years younger than he is which is the case for tanaka and she stopped playing basketball last season so the timing was sort of suggestive. And then I think there had been an unconfirmed sighting that she was in the area.

There was like a photo where it looked like it might be her or something. So this was not a shock to the showbiz, although maybe a shock that Otani just came out and tweeted it out and instated it out. But now we know. And obviously I've seen people suggesting that should they have children, the athletic bloodlines here. Yeah, they will be quite tall. Maybe the child of Shohei and Mamiko will be a two-way player, right? Oh my gosh.

Two-way baseball player who also plays basketball. That would be, I guess the the next logical step um i beg everyone to be normal ben i i have some news here i have to i feel like i must say i don't think they're holding hands uh i think no i well yamamoto and the interpreter no they're not holding hands are you sure yeah? Yeah, I'm pretty sure. I'm going to send you a screenshot from Instagram. Okay, I guess. Their hands are close to one another.

They are very close. They look like they might be touching. They might be touching, but they're not holding hands. No, they're not clasped. Yeah, they're not clasped. hands. No, they're not clasped. Yeah, they're not clasped. You realize that that is the distinction between holding hands and not holding hands is the clasping of said hands. So they are not holding hands. They are simply standing next to one another. More tender if it were just lightly brushing fingertips, but I guess we can't tell from this angle. I wish that one of them was

giving the other like a little piggyback ride because that would be adorable, too. Yes. You know what I am fascinated by? The different bags that people bring on planes when they are pro athletes. My favorite thing about this entire situation actually is how comfortable they all look. Because look, despite not being a particularly fashionable person myself, I understand that one, one really cares about fashion, even getting off the plane. Like you want to have a good outfit, you know, you want to put your best foot forward, literally. But I often think to myself, you're on, you're on long flights and internationally, like that's a

long, that's a long flight. And I know that flying charter is comfortable. It's not like they're squeezed into an economy seat or anything like that. But sometimes I'm like, you should be wearing soft pants on a plane. got to do whatever you need to to get through the day, even if what you're doing is flying charter for a major league baseball team. Soft pants, soft pants. Everyone should wear soft pants on a plane. Oh, I agree. It should be a soft pant experience. And I appreciate their soft pants, you know? Yes. Yes. This is how I travel, not in Dodgers team apparel, but in this sort of leisure wear. Yeah. I mean, this is what I'm wearing 24-7, not just when I'm in the air. But yeah, it looks quite comfortable. They're all matchy-matchy here. It's very like couples outfits, except it's team branded apparel, I believe, that I'm sure was team issued.

But yeah, they look quite comfy and matching. And it's nice. And yeah, Shohei had also mentioned that they met while training, like in a training session of some sort, which again suggested perhaps an athlete. But then when he said normal Japanese woman, that was interpreted to mean that she wasn't currently a celebrity or athlete of some sort. But I think that was true because she stopped playing basketball as of last year. of some sort, but I think that was true because she stopped playing basketball as of last year. Anyway, the identity is out there, and I guess he was comfortable putting it out there because he decided to, or maybe he knew that the showbiz knew anyway, so he just decided to give up the ghost here. I invite everyone to be normal about this,

and it seems like some people are being normal, some people are being stone cold weirdos, but you know, like different strokes, I guess. I think that it is another entry in a growing study that I think it really seems to help athletes when they are able to be in relationships with other athletes. And there are a lot of ways to form meaningful, loving partnership. And it's not to suggest you have to be in the same profession as your partner or spouse. But I would imagine that particularly when you're competing at this level, that having another person who understands what that might be like, even if they play a different sport, which is often the case, it seems, for these pairings, I think it seems like it works pairings. I think it's, it seems like it works well for a lot of these folks where it's like, who else would understand what a strange thing and, you know, Otani's dealing with like a level of celebrity that is, you know, in some

ways, more akin to being like a movie star than being a professional athlete but it does seem like it it often helps uh these folks out to like have that as a source of common understanding i think it would be hard to to be with a a real normie you know yeah a real one yeah i'm sure there is some common ground there that can be helpful although yeah i guess if they're both active athletes yeah that would be difficult which which they have been until recently and so recently otani had mentioned it was a long distance relationship for a while i think sue bird and megan rapinoe have talked about that like yeah it has been hard for them to just like see each other when they're both actively playing but i guess if Tanaka is no longer actively an athlete, then that won't be such an obstacle

and they will understand each other having lived a somewhat similar lifestyle in some respects. So yeah. Yeah. Pablo Torre's podcast with them, with Megan Rapinoe and Sue Burton, with Otani and his wife, is a really good listen

if people are interested in this phenomenon. It was a fun one to sit through. Only other update here. There was an ESPN presentation where they shared some details about their baseball broadcasts, among others, for this coming season. R.I.P. K-Rod broadcasts. If anyone is going to miss the Michael K. A-Rod simulcasts, sorry to break it to you. Yeah, no comment here either. But the alternate StatCast broadcasts are coming back later in the season.

So that's nice. But also the mainline Sunday night baseball broadcast is getting more statsy. I guess there's probably less of a difference now between the StatCast broadcast and the main one than there used to be because stats have just permeated regular broadcasts. But this is something I'm pretty sure we've talked about. ESPN is adding live win probability to its Sunday night baseball broadcast. It's just going to be on the score bug. On the score bug, they released a little mock-up where, you know, it's just like they show the score and the teams and the batter and the pitcher and the count and the little diagram of the bases and the velo and the inning and everything. And then on top of that, there is a win probability bar that shows the percentage chances that each team will win. And this is going to be up there on this Chiron mini scoreboard 98% of the time, they said.

Now, I know we've talked about this possibility before, and I do not recall what my position was. I'm guessing at some point I was at least slightly in favor of this. Now, I feel indifferent, I guess, about this. Now, I'm not really against it. I'm not really heartened by it I'm not super excited about it obviously like win probability has been accessible any number of places even during games so it's not like we we didn't have a place to see this in various apps and websites previously but it's going to be more front-facing for the mainstream audience that views Sunday Night Baseball.

Yeah. So is that good? Is that bad? Do we care? Okay. So like philosophically, I'm pretty indifferent to it. Yeah. One way or the other.

In large part because, as you said, there are a lot of places that you can find real-time win probability, including at Fangraphs.com. Yeah. So I don't feel like this is satisfying a need in the market. Now, do the people who watch Sunday Night Baseball know that you can find real-time win probability at Fangraphs.com? Some of them do but maybe not all of them so perhaps

I'm underestimating the gap the size of the gap here between desire and ability to actualize although who are the people who are like I really want win probability added and I don't know where to find it like who is that person I want to meet that person what a weird

person the person in the famous shut the shut the up i'm calculating win probability tweets but but real people i don't know a lot of swearing lately then yeah well hey i'm quoting a swear i know i know i'm not look i'm not saying it's bad i'm just saying it is a departure from your previous posture. Yeah, working blue. Okay, so, you know, I don't know that this is like satisfying an actual need. I do generally think that I want more simplicity on the screen during broadcast than less. Simplicity on the screen during broadcast than less. And so I worry about there being like clutter because like it's going to have to have some amount of size to be like interpretable and legible as you're sitting at home. So like that part of it, I'm a little like, no, if that's quite right.

Oh, did you just send me a picture? Did you just send me a picture of it? The little mock-up that they shared here oh well okay like i win prob win prob i guess the most important thing is that in venue have nothing to do with this and as long as we're satisfying that yeah because like i'm sure it's espn stats and info that's gonna. Yeah. And I assume that this is just generic context neutral win probability. I assume it's not taking into account the two teams that are playing. Probably. Which I guess you could say reduces its utility, but also makes it so that you can't screw

it up the way that the Apple odds did. I mean, it would be in some respects more useful if it actually took into account who's pitching, who's playing, who's batting. But also you could screw that up more easily. So I think about that in venue interview like once a week. That's neither here nor there. But I do think about it. You know how sometimes you would hear like austin butler got stuck in the elvis voice and you'd be like what's gonna have to happen to him i saw masters of the air it's true is he in elvis voice and masters of the air that's fantastic i haven't seen dune yet and i assume that he doesn't sound like elvis and he's got a very different voice okay i'm worried he will now be stuck in in future, but it's not the same one. I will just say, and who could say why I'm thinking of this, that I did pilot like an

Elizabeth Holmes impression at one point, and then I was worried I would talk like that for the rest of my life. And it was very good. But anyway, who could say why I was thinking that? So, this is pretty unobtrusive. I don't know that it really moves the needle one way or the other in terms of people's understanding. I feel like when probability added is the kind of thing that is, for most of the game, not really necessary to track in real time, right?

Like, it's also something that's very easy because you can track it in real time to just incorporate into the broadcast when there's been a dramatic change one way or the other. And so, again, I don't know that this is really satisfying and a need that I was like, man, it's just such a bummer that we don't have WPA on there. But if this is the form it's taking, then I guess it's probably fine.

I'm glad the Statcast broadcasts are going to come back. I like those. Those are good. But my happiness at them coming back perhaps can dovetail back to my ideas on the my thoughts on when probability added which is like i don't view it as an essential thing to understanding the game as it is playing out like the the big swings that you see in wpa there's not a lot of mystery to them, right? Like, it tends to be obvious when the projected fortunes of the game have shifted from one side to the other. And so, I don't know that this really advances our understanding in real time in the way that

we need it to. And I also feel like because it's something that you could just have as an aside, it might be more palatable to the part of the viewing audience who, for instance, doesn't know the WPA is something that we calculate in real time at VanGraphs, where they might respond to that metric better if it weren't being constantly displayed because, you know, not everybody cares about stats stats and so i think you want to have like a kind of strategic engagement with them around when you deploy stats and i think having

it be like oh wow at the after that inning you know things really moved around one way or the other like that seems like a maybe a better way to utilize that uh to me but yeah you know we'll have to see when expectancy at Tom Tango calls it a story stat, I think, because it sort of sums up how you feel when you're watching the game. And so you could say it's sort of redundant because if you've watched baseball before, you have some sense. OK, this combination of score and inning and outs, I know who is more likely to win. Right. And so this maybe gives you a slightly better calibration, a more precise gauge of that, but it's not going to shock you if you understand the sport.

I don't know if it would maybe help for onboarding new baseball viewers who are like, what does this all mean? How do I follow this? Who's more likely to win? Well, if there's that number on the screen that tells you, like, here's the current balance of power. I don't know if that helps you get more engaged. I could see it maybe decreasing the suspense in a sense. Like, if it's a total mystery to you, like, who's going to win this game?

And then the number shows you, well, this team is 80% likely to win. Does that sap some of your suspense? Because you now know that the outcome is less in question than maybe you thought? Or does it help because you then can quantify how unlikely a comeback is? And so you can really root for the underdog because you understand, oh, this is sort of a long shot, but if it happens, then it would be really special and they would have overcome these odds that we saw on the screen at the time i'm sure there will be people who just like distrust the model itself and like whenever win expectancy says one team is willing to win and

then the other team actually wins they'll be like quote tweeting like dunking on the win expectancy or something and you know it's not a guarantee. This is just historical averages. It's not even a projection or anything. It's just historically speaking, how often has a team won or lost in this given situation? So I could see it going either way from an entertainment perspective. And maybe it won't move the needle much, as you said, much either way. And maybe it'll be a short-term experiment. much, as you said, much either way, and maybe it'll be a short-term experiment. Yeah. And that raises a good point, which is like, we should be more open to that with broadcasts, I think. I understand you have to like build graphics and, you know, you want to have a sense of this stuff and it can be disorienting if the broadcast is constantly changing. Like there is

something I think important in the viewing experience to knowing instinctively when something happens, like where to look on the screen. And so you don't want to go too wild and crazy, but I like it when, you know, broadcasters are willing to like try stuff out and see what sticks because I think you just don't always know, you know, you just don't always know what's going to resonate with people or advance their understanding of the game or be the kind of presentation of an advanced analytics concept that really sings and resonates with people. They might go, oh, I understand that finally. I get why that matters. Yeah, it could be a gateway.

Oh, how do they calculate this? Let me look this up. This is interesting. Yeah, what else could this be the basis of? So, yeah, if it's an introduction to someone, that's nice. I have seen some of our listeners were speculating about maybe some kind of gambling connection. I don't know exactly what that would be. I mean, I guess the conspiracy, the nefarious interpretation would be like, oh, there's an ESPN branded sports book. Like they could cook the books, you know, they could have like the odds be artificially

lower high or something in an effort to induce you to bet on someone. I mean, you know, I guess you have to be vigilant for that sort of thing. Sure. I doubt that's the main motivation here. That seems semi far-fetched, but who knows? Maybe I'm gullible. Maybe I'm too trusting. But I don't know whether just having odds on the screen at all times might just encourage people to bet. Yeah. Oh, I should bet on this. So maybe, maybe there's something to that. I guess I could see that as like an inducement potentially. I don't want to be Pollyanna-ish either. And I have spoken on this podcast about my sort of concerns about the potential ethical issues or perceived ethical issues that

exist with ESPN having an affiliated sports book. But I think if only because WPA is available so many other places, and especially if it's, you know, if it's a sort of just neutral, here's what this, you know, base and out state tends to yield kind of stuff. If they were monkeying with it, it would be pretty easy to tell. It would be one of those things where it's like, why is this always so different than what they're showing at Fangraphs, for instance? And then I think you get in trouble pretty fast. So it doesn't seem like the main potential issue with them having an ESPN sportsbook.

There are others, to be clear, but that one doesn't strike me as the most probable. But again, maybe I'm also being naive. Okay, so our plan here, and maybe we can keep this kind of short, as you said, didn't do a ton of prep. Neither did I, but I think it's worthwhile. We've talked about all of the offseason moves, the major offseason moves. We've discussed them in depth, but this is just kind of a quick end of offseason recap here. I think maybe we've done this before, but just listing our favorite offseason moves. And I don't know if favorite is akin to best necessarily. Like you could list the best moves from a team's

perspective, from a player's perspective, from the fans' neutral games perspective. But I was looking at it as just these are my favorite offseason moves. I don't know. Like they satisfied some need for me. They entertained me. They were well conceived, well executed, whatever it was that just spoke to me about these particular trades and signings. And I thought we would be doing this after all of the signings were done. At least we're doing it after the Dylan Cease trade, but obviously there's still a Blake Snell, still a Jordan Montgomery, still a J.D. Martinez out there. So not all of the off-season moves have been made, but yeah, I don't know if we even call it a draft. I guess kind of it's a draft. But really, we're just, you know, I'll name a move I like and you'll name a move. And we can just remember that we like them, basically.

So I don't know if it matters who goes first. Not particularly. It doesn't matter to me. Don't know if it matters to you. But if you have a favorite, I mean, you but if you have uh a favorite i mean you're welcome to to lead off with uh one move that you're fond of okay can i do like a feelings based one and then i can give like an actual so um and and this came to my attention because of our friend rj anderson who wrote about it for cbs The Dodgers renewed Andrew Tolles' contract.

Oh, yes. I don't know if folks have followed this, but Tolles has dealt with a number of mental health issues in the last couple of years, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, and has had a really hard go of it. And the Dodgers, even though it seems very unlikely that he will ever play affiliated baseball for them or anyone else, they have kept him in the organization so that he can receive health insurance through Major League Baseball. And, you know, I don't want to like attaboy the Dodgers too much. Like the Dodgers signed Trevor Bauer. Like, you know, they're a big league organization. They do things that we find to be ethically dubious.

But like this has been a persistent thing that they've done. And they're not obligated to, but they do it. And I think it's really lovely and nice because this guy needs assistance and support. And they're giving it to him even though they're not contractually obligated to anymore. And so, I don't know. It's a nice thing. And I'm glad they do it. And so, that's't know, it's just, it's a nice thing and I'm glad they do it. And so, you know, that's more of a feelings one. In terms of, you could say something about that if you had something to say, sorry, I cut you off.

to Toronto, just a hometown move. Don't even know if he'll end up playing for the Blue Jays, but I'm glad that he's given it a go and that they're letting him give it a go. And if he does make the majors, and I certainly would not bet against him making the majors at some point this season, then that will be a heartwarming story. And sometimes it's weird when a player

who's been with one team his entire career and is one of that franchise's best all-time players. And then for whatever reason, they part ways at the very end. And there's that one weird year at the end where he was in some different uniform that you just forget about. You never remember, except sometimes it helps you out with bar trivia. Right. But this is, I think, the best possible version of that. But this is, I think, the best possible version of that. If there had to be some separation between Votto and the Reds for him to go back to Canada and play for the Toronto team, potentially, that's nice.

So I'm glad that that is happening or might happen. And also, just before we started recording, the Braves re-signed Adam Duvall. Yeah, they did. Which means that Stone Duvall will be reunited with his best friend Blooper do you remember when we talked about Adam Duvall's son Stone and his very close personal relationship with Braves mascot

Blooper he's like sort of a second dad to him seemingly where like he was running to Blooper to am I getting the details here running to Blooper to... I thought... Am I getting the details here wrong? The Blooper kid bond was with one of Freddie Freeman's boys. I don't think so.

I think it was Ed and Duvall's son, Stone. Maybe I must be misremembering. I mean, I am misremembering probably on purpose because I think Blooper is a fleshy abomination who should be cast into the sea. Not the person in the costume, but like the costume. Which makes it all the more heartwarming, I think, that Stone connected with him. Because look, the innocence of youth, you know, out of the mouths of babes, like to you,

Blooper might look like a fleshy abomination monstrosity, but Stone sees him for what he is. He's just pure of heart and he is just intrigued by Blooper. And I think that's a really nice message. You're setting me up to have to say like mean things about a child. And so I'm not going to do that because I've never met Adam Duvall's kid. You said mean things about the mascot, but not about Stone Duvall. Yeah, but that's a grown demon thing. That's not a kid. I can say mean stuff about grown demons. They are fair game.

They are literally adults, and they are demons. Okay? That is a fleshy abomination. I don't care for it. I think there's something wrong with that mascot. A different kind of something wrong than is wrong with Otani's dog. Still something weird about that dog but the dog is fine the dog is

normal the dog i mean i don't think the dog is a demon unlike blooper who i think is sent here to open a hell portal you know like buffy would have something to say about that the braves have acknowledged it's like part of the actual mascot character bio that blooper is, quote, a product of science run amok. See? See? See? Who was right? I was right. Meg was right. People should listen to me, Meg. It's very much like I was watching Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Mutant Mayhem last night. Great movie. As one does. You know, they're a product of science run amok, too. And they're just looking for connection. They're just looking for someone who will not point and scream and say monster at them. I watched I'm on an animated movie kick and I was also watching Nimona, another great movie from last year. Same story. Everyone's calling this shape shifting girl character a monster. And she just wants to connect. She just wants someone to see her for who she is. And that's what Stone Duvall has with Blooper. So I'm just glad that they're reunited. I support that as a, you know, story.

Yeah. But not with Blooper. I'm drawing the line. Like, you know, some monsters are misunderstood. And some monsters, I think, are like, like you know foretelling the coming apocalypse and bloopers on that list okay so we started with the this is a nice heartwarming transaction yeah and then we ended up talking about demons for a little while um can i do one that is like about a actual baseball i really continue to like the eduardo rodriguez signing for that was on my list too

yeah arizona diamondbacks there's certainly the potential for them to continue to do more as time goes on like and and grow their payroll and and what have you but it would have been easy for them to kind of rest on their laurels a bit and say look like the the world series run was so exciting and so great. But, you know, we understand where we sit in this division relative to the Dodgers. We understand some of the flukier aspects about our run last year. But I think that they went out and said, you know, it was really not comfortable to have like two and a half starters in the postseason last year. And we're excited about Brandon Fott.

We think that he can continue to take steps forward and like be a guy, but we need to reinforce this rotation. We like Rodriguez. We think he can really add something to this club. And so we're going to spend some of that postseason gate on getting better as a team. And it wasn't their only addition, obviously, but I think

that it's the one that will end up being sort of the most impactful for them. And so I really, I really liked that signing. I think that it's going to be a good one for them. And I will take another high impact pitching acquisition, Corbin Burns trade for the Orioles. Much needed, just really the type of pitcher they needed. I was quite critical of them for not making a move of that sort for most of the offseason. And I said, hey, if they finally do it, I will change my tune. And I have because they did it. And the concerns about Mike Elias and is he too much of a prospect hugger? Will he part with any prospects to go get the high impact major league ready veteran talent that the Orioles sorely need? That was somewhat

in question and it's less in question after he made the move for Burns. They still have maybe more prospects than they have places to play them, but they got Corman Burns and they got him have places to play them, but they got Corbin Burns and they got him for Joey Ortiz, for D.L. Hall. I mean, these are players, particularly Ortiz, who just really did not have a place with the Orioles. Just a good player, you know, nice pickup for the Brewers, but just not even really a loss for the Orioles, except in terms of opportunity cost of just being able to trade him for someone and who better than Corbin Burns. So that was just a move that they needed to make. And really with the uncertainty about Means and Braddish, etc. Hopefully those guys will be okay. But if they're not, even more important that Corbin Burns is there. They just needed a just secure top of the rotation type pitcher. And there were only so many available this winter. And they got one at little to no cost

to the 2023 team. Yes. And here I am just going to, sorry to be pedantic, but this is the podcast for it. And you've expertly worded your assessment of that to leave ambiguity here. But I will just remind everyone, the D.L. Hall is not prospect eligible anymore.

He graduated based on roster days. So when everyone is like, why does Ben go after D.L. Hall? We actually probably wouldn't. Maybe hand him in the top 100. But he's not a prospect. We didn't forget him. He's just not a prospect anymore. Doesn't mean he's not a good player. Doesn't mean he's not a prospect. We didn't forget him. He's just not a prospect anymore. Doesn't mean he's not a good player.

Doesn't mean he's not an exciting young arm. Doesn't mean that he, you know, doesn't have a bright future in Milwaukee. He's just, he's not technically a prospect. Now, could the Orioles still spend some money and, you know, keep Corbin Burns around and make some other signings? Absolutely. But it's not solely Mike Elias' responsibility. It's now about to be David Rubenstein's. And hopefully he does that better than his predecessor did.

I agree. I mean, they are a team that I think we can fairly say should follow the Ocean's Eleven principle we outlined last episode. And go get one more. The well-established Ocean's Eleven principle. I'm going to make this a thing. I think it's a good, you know, I think it's a good bit. People still really like that movie. It's excellent, you know.

It's like a, yeah, so it's the Ocean's Eleven principle. You think we need one more? We'll go get one more. Go get one more, Mike. Oh, I need Eleven principle. You think we need one more? We'll go get one more. Go get one more, Mike. Oh, I need a pick. You need one more. I need one more. I need a couple.

Okay, well, let's see. I put this question to Michael Bauman because I was like, what signings did you like? You remember signings that happened. Maybe you'll remember different ones than I do because there have been so many, Ben. He brought up Molly to the Rangers. And I'm going to riff on that a little bit and just say that I like it not only for itself, but also I'm so intrigued by their approach to rotation construction right now. And I'm going to be fascinated to see if they're, hey, we have like a bunch of all-stars.

You'll see them soon approach to to um building a rotation actually works i think it could be really great and exciting um and i think that they are a team that even though they literally just won the world series they seem primed to like be a club that teams maybe are and fans are like are they actually good and then if their plan works out the way they want in like july and august we're going to be like oh no and by we i mean people who like some of the teams that play in the al west might be like oh no like you just have to deal with healthy to grom and healthy scherzer and healthy molly So I like that because I prefer it when teams do stuff that's interesting. We're so optimized. It's fun when teams are like, no, we're going to try a

thing. So yeah, I'm for that. That is interesting. Then again, the Yankees could just go get Blake Snell, the Rangers could go get Jordan Montgomery, and we could call it an offseason. Sometimes it's also sort of simple, but yeah, you know, sometimes when I think particularly when writers are forced to come up with like end of year lists, there's like this human instinct to try to be kind of cute or clever about it. And sometimes you're like, no, the best this was that. I should say that because that's obviously true. But there's a lot of the best this is that in baseball. And so when you can be a little more creative the best this is that in baseball. And so when you can be a little more creative with your this is and that's, it's fun.

Yep. Well, my next one is going to be also from that Burns category of just this was an obvious need and they filled it by getting maybe the best guy. And that's the Yankees trading for Juan Soto. Yeah. They got literally Juan Soto. He's amazing. And heoto. Yeah. They got literally Juan Soto. He's amazing. And he's exactly what they needed. They needed someone to give them on base and power who was not named Aaron Judge. And who better than Juan Soto?

And I just I know he's not like built for Yankee Stadium style swing exactly. But I still just feel like he's going to go off this year, even by Juan Soto standards. I can imagine him having a huge year, certainly off to a strong start this spring. Not that that means very much, but I'm looking forward to seeing him hopefully in person a little more, just playing in my city. He's just, he's not only good, but he is highly entertaining, I would say, when he's going well, because every plate appearance is compelling with him just because his expressions, his He's not only good, but he is highly entertaining, I would say, when he's going well.

Because every plate appearance is compelling with him. Just because his expressions, his shuffles, his eye, his ability to hit for power. So he's not just passive up there. He is just a compelling plate appearance. And I really look forward to seeing what he can do. But he's exactly what the Yankees needed. Now, maybe they still need some more. But they did about the best they could with that move.

And they had to give up some talent to get him. And it's only one year guaranteed. But still, it's Juan Soto. So they had to make that move. And they did. So that's what the Yankees are supposed to do. They're just supposed to go get the best guy. Yep. I think that that is good. I'm going to, I'm going to cheat a little bit. Sorry. I'm going to cheat a little bit and take a kind of collection of moves. I really, I don't know that

it's going to push them into like first place in the AL Central, but I really liked Detroit's off season. I still think, and I feel like I probably said this when we talked about the Kenta Maeda signing. Yeah, I had Maeda on my list here. Yeah. But I really do think that both the short and long-term fortunes of the Detroit Tigers are going to be largely determined by their young guys, both the pitchers coming back from injury, the potential growth and sort of continued steps forward of their young position players. But I like that they didn't see fit to sort of assume that that is necessarily going to happen and going to happen all at once and on a consistent timeline. And I

think that when teams end up kind of surprising us and being maybe post-season ready a little bit sooner than we expect them to, it tends to take, do I think that this is an exclusive list? There are three flavors of that that come to mind. Are there more than that? There could be. Maybe I'll think of them later, but here are the three that I think of. Are there more than that? There could be. Maybe I'll think of them later. But here are the three that I think of. There's the young, hyper-talented prospect core all coming up at once. There's the team that signs superstars like a year or two prior and then has that superstar group meet a young group and have it go really well, right? So we would put like the

padres in that category you could put the texas rangers in that category yeah and then i think there are um teams like detroit where they have young guys and those guys take steps forward or reveal themselves to be really good on first run right like you're hoping cole keith is one of those dudes and then you look back and go it's so good that they brought in these nice complimentary pieces, right? Who they're good big leaguers, they're veterans, they have experience. And here they are ready to bolster those dudes so that you don't have to go out at the deadline and like get that fourth or fifth starter because you already have that guy you know you you you picked him up in the off season he was able to produce for you all year and so i i feel like detroit if it all kind of comes together for them this year will probably be that group where like yeah the

young guys are driving the bus but like um the i don't have a further bus thing i don't have any more bus words um but like um didn't sc't Scott Boris at one point talk about like, you know, the piece, like the plants you plant around plants to fill in the planter box, right? You know, like, who else would you think of but Kenta Maeda or Jack Flaherty or Andrew Chafin, right? Gio Urshela, you know, maybe they'll get something out of Keston Hira. So, he's on a minor league contract. But, you know, maybe they'll get something out of Castanheira. So, he's on a minor league contract. But, you know, I think that they've done well. None of those guys are guys at this point in their career that you, like, win, you know, because of, right?

They're not going to be the main reason they win, but I think they're going to be important sort of complementary support. So, yeah. Yep. The Tigers. That's a good one. I will take, staying in the AL Central, the Bobby Witt Jr. extension. Yeah. Just because that wasn't clearly a signing that was within the realm of possibility for the Royals. And I don't know whether the timing we talked about, oh, they got this public ballpark funding referendum coming up, but hey, they kept Bobby Witt Jr. He's the cornerstone of their franchise, the face of that team.

Now he's good and getting better. And I think it's good that not every great player signs with some coastal high payroll behemoth. I think it's good that a team like the Royals can keep a Bobby Witt Jr. and show that that is possible for any team to do. And now they can build around him and they have a lot of building around him to do. But it was really a prerequisite that they got that situation sorted. They can count on him being around for a long, long time. He can be their obvious jersey guy, as you said.

And Royals fans can purchase their wit jerseys and not worry about the shelf life so yeah that like more than doubled i think their previous biggest contract of any kind for that organization so yeah breaking through that spending ceiling and doing it for a player who you really he you want to put your faith and your investment in. That was a heartening extension, I think. I love that you, a lifelong New Yorker, are like these coastal elites. But no, I think you're absolutely right. You want, I want the teams that are really good to, and have a lot of resources to like throw their weight around with those resources because like what else is the point of having them but you don't want all of that talent to concentrate there you want every team and fans of every team to have guys to root

for and yeah i agree with you it's exciting to have wit i'm gonna do a hipster dodgers pick are you ready okay here's my hipster Dodgers pick. James Paxton. Wow, okay. Yes. The headline move for the Dodgers this winter. The headline move for the Los Angeles Dodgers. And like here, let's throw Teoscar Hernandez into this bucket also. Yeah, I considered him. Yeah.

Yeah. Picking Otani and Yamamoto and even Glasnow to a certain extent feels like, you know, that feels like cheating almost because they're so obvious. Although, wow, they're going to be really good. I wonder if Otani could play shortstop. I wouldn't doubt it. That's the real, you know, last episode I advocated for Max Muncy there, which in hindsight is maybe not me being the nicest to Max Muncy, who seems like a nice enough guy. So why would I do that? And I know that putting Otani at shortstop would probably go badly and be terrifying for everyone involved. But what if they tried it for one game? What if

they were just like, for one game, let's see what he can do out there. No, we don't have to do that. I'm not sure how that would affect his Tommy John rehab to play shortstop at this point. But athletically speaking, skills-wise, I believe in him if he set his mind to it. You know what? Wait. No, I'm taking it back. I'm doing a different Dodgers signing. Clayton Kershaw.

Clayton Kershaw is my feeling signing. I was so stressed. I was so nervous for him. I had so much anxiety that this guy who'd been so important to this franchise, future Hall of Famer, was going to have to have one of those weird, like, nub seasons where he spends one year in another team's uniform and, like, messes up stuff for years to come and, you know, stymies your attempt to get a sporkle right, right? you know stymies your attempt to get a sporkle right right and they didn't do that they brought they brought kirsch back in and they kept him where he belongs so yeah um that but but he can be part of the point that i was going to make which is that you know all of their signings their big marquee signings have been so exciting but i i think that they still had like the potential for there to be some depth issues and And one way to address that is to sign innings eaters. And one way to address that, at least as it pertains to rotation,

is like, we're going to sign a bunch of guys, and some of them will be hurt at any given time, but not all of them, probably. And I like James Paxton because he used to be a Mariner and an important one to me. Tay Oscar used to be a Mariner and an important one to me. Teoscar used to be a Mariner too, sure. He's a sort of smaller scale indication of the issue that some teams have complained about where it's like, well, how do you persuade people to not go to the Dodgers? He's not going to be an everyday guy probably for them, but he just wanted to be a dodger so he's gonna go be a dodger and like try to have a really great year um probably platooning a good bit yeah i considered taking otani not just because it's otani and because if you get him well that has to be one of the best

moves of the offseason even if it was sort of preordained in a way. But I think just the terms of that contract gave us so much material to talk and write about and analyze just the fact that that deal totally broke the mold in the way that Otani has as a player. And again, I don't know if it's really precedent setting so much as it is kind of an Otani-esque unicorn contract, but the fact that it was so unusual with the deferrals and the structure of it all, and we just had to figure out how does this work and what is it worth? We got a lot of mileage out of that. It was a lot of fun to contemplate the significance of that contract. So that alone made it one of my favorite of the off season, apart from the fact that it was Otani and it was a coastal behemoth just spreading their money around to go get the best player.

I guess I need to issue a correction on a previous post of mine that we have Teoscar Hernandez projected for like 602 plate appearances. So that's full-time work. Yeah. Well, Mookie's in the infield these days. I guess he was going to be anyway. Okay. So I guess with my penultimate maybe pick, I'll take the Cody Bellinger reunion with the Cubs. Yeah.

Because I think they needed him. And obviously things worked out well for him there last year. And the contract didn't quite work out the way that he wanted it to. But it wasn't a total just pillow contract where clearly the team out the way that he wanted it to, but it wasn't a total just pillow contract where clearly the team got the best of it. Like, maybe you could say that about the Matt Chapman contract, for instance. But with Bellinger, you know, he's still getting $30 million and then an opt-out. So he will be one of the better paid players in baseball, and then he can prove it.

He can show that he actually is that good, and he can do it again, and then he can prove it. He can show that he actually is that good and he can do it again and then he can go get his gigantic contract. So that's still on the table for him, but he will be quite well compensated in the meantime. And that was a pretty important signing for the Cubs as we discussed at the time, just where they are on the win curve, the marginal utility of every win for them as they try to win the Central. So that just felt like, okay, things worked out well for them last year. It makes all the sense in the world that they would find their way back to each other. And it took longer than anticipated. And the total amount was not what Bellinger was seeking initially. But there's

still a possibility that this works out well for both sides so i'm gonna go with that one yeah can i pick a weird one can i pick one that i i was like kind of down on and now looks very smart though for reasons that i'm sure they would prefer it not look smart which is the red signing hi m Candelario. Yeah, yeah. Yep. No worries about where he'll be playing or where that playing time will come from post Marte suspension. Yeah, which like, Noel V, come on, man. Yeah.

I'm always going to have a soft spot for Noel V Marte, given his time as a Mariners farmhand. But yeah, I'm sure, like I said, this is not what Cincy was hoping for as a means of resolving their infield log jam, but I'm sure that they are very happy that they have him on the roster now and are able to sort of buttress third base and they can move Ankernausian Strand back to first. And, you know, Ellie can do his thing at shortstop, and McLean is there for second. And so they, you know, again, they're putting versatility to use for a reason that I'm sure they're not happy about.

But one of the reasons that teams should have versatility is so that they have the ability to backstop losses like this. And so here we are, you know? have the ability to backstop losses like this. And so here we are, you know? Mm-hmm. Yep. That's quite a change in fortunes for the Candelario signing, which at first we were like, what the heck? We would not have expected that to look great in retrospect.

But even by the end of the offseason, it looks sort of smart, even if inadvertently it works out, I guess. Okay, for my last pick, this is tough. I have a few still left on my board, so I'll just pick one and then give you a couple honorable mentions. But I guess I'll go with the Giants getting Jung-Hoo Lee just because they were the runners-up for so many free agents that they tried to sign, and they they got Lee and he did well. I think he got more than

most people were projecting that he would get. And he just seems like he's going to be a fun player. He's off to a nice start this spring. He hit a homer like 110 miles per hour the other day, which was encouraging. And I think he's going to be a lot of fun to watch, just a good, well-rounded player, fun skill set. And I think he fits that team well. And even if they paid more than people were projecting, well, they clearly had money to spend because they couldn't get some of their other top targets to take that money. So I think it works out well, again, for both parties here. And maybe it's kind of a consolation prize. Oh, you didn't get your top free agent target this offseason or last offseason.

You had to settle for Jung-Hoo Lee. But as a consolation prize, I think that's a pretty good one. Yeah, I agree. I'm going to say a nice thing about the Seattle Mariners offseason, which is surprising because I had some nice things to say about it. I like that Mitch Garver signing. I think it's good. Is it enough?

Nah, but it is good in and of itself, and we should acknowledge that. I think that he will be a really good addition for them. And he got a nice Christmas Eve gift. So that's exciting. Mitch Garver. Good job, Jerry. Yeah, that was a good one. I will shout out Sonny Gray going to the Cardinals because

we're sort of skeptical of their reconstructed age rotation. I still am. of their reconstructed, aged rotation. I still am. Yeah. Oh, I still am too. But Sonny Gray is the best of the pitchers they signed, as opposed to Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn,

where you're sort of hoping for bulk. And that is not a comment on the build of any of these pitchers. I mean, bulk workload, innings I'm talking about here. You just want them to go out there and give you innings and maybe they will. But with Gray, you have a legitimate top of the rotation type performance wise, and they definitely needed that. It can't just be all innings eaters because you can't even count on innings eaters to eat innings. And that is a seasoned, well-seasoned rotation. And again, as I mentioned on the Cardinals preview, when you're just banking on durability, but you're

also banking on getting that durability from like the oldest rotation in the game, that seems like sort of a scary plan. Sonny Gray is comparatively youthful at 34 years old compared to some of the other pitchers in that rotation. But, you know, they got him for like three years, $75 million, you know, with a club option. I mean, it seems like a pretty nice deal for the Cardinals and they needed someone like Sonny Gray. So I'll take them. And then since we started off saying some not so nice things about the White Sox, I'll take the Eric Fetty signing just kind of as a flyer. Remember when the baseball winner meetings were like the Eric Fetty sweepstakes? Like nothing happened. It was like, who's going

to get Eric Fetty? We were all just waiting with bated breath to see. And the White Sox got Eric Fetty. And I don't really know how good he's going to be, but he's coming off a MVP season in the KBO. And he certainly changed some things and raised his outlook. And gosh, post-cease, and now with Michael Kopech moving to the pen too, I don't know who is going to be starting games

for the White Sox, but Eric Fetty is. So given subsequent events, all the more important that they managed to land Eric Fetty, it's a two-year, fairly low dollar deal if he pans out. So will he be the next kind of Merrill Kelly reinventing himself and coming back to MLB and being better than he was before? Kelly reinventing himself and coming back to MLB and being better than he was before. Not sure, but there is at least a chance that that could happen and he will help stabilize that rotation. Or I guess he could just become someone else that they trade. But either way, might turn out to be a sweet signing for the Sox. Yeah, I think you're right.

I'm also glad you said that because Ben forgot it happens. Yeah, it was a long time ago. Didn't remember it for even a single moment. I was just like, oh, yeah, that happened. That's true. Well, two others, actually. I appreciated the extensions that Wheeler and Nola signed. Those seemed good.

It's nice how you can take care of your off-season business before the season even starts. Yeah. Those guys have been a dynamic duo for the Phillies for a while and for a while longer. Yeah. So, like, that's good. There were some signings. There were some guys. They're in new places.

We'll see how they do. And we'll see whether Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery or JDM or anyone else who has yet to sign will enter the ranks of our favorite offseason moves. It'll probably happen tonight. It'll happen tonight. It'll happen as soon as we stop recording. Well, just to circle back to the beginning of the episode, Garrett Cole got good news from Dr. Elitrash. Seemingly no surgery required. He's trying the rest and rehab route. Estimates of his time to return range from one to three months. Make of that what you will. That will do it for today and for this week. Thanks as always for listening. We'll do some

previewing and some stat blasting next week. Maybe we'll find time for some emails. Just three more team preview pods to go. Six more teams. And of course, we will do our 2024 predictions pod, though I think that will come after the Dodgers Padres opening day, but before the opening day for everyone else. five listeners have already signed up and pledged some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going, help us stay ad-free and get themselves access to some perks. Tony Adams, James, Keith Friedman, Miff, and Steven Cardone. Thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include access to the Effectively Wild Discord group for patrons only, monthly bonus episodes, playoff live streams, prioritized email answers, discounts on merch and ad-free fan graphs, memberships, and so much more. Check out all the offerings at patreon.com slash effectively wild. Thank you. and you can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at r slash Effectively Wild. You can also rate, review, and subscribe to Effectively Wild on iTunes and Spotify and other podcast platforms. And you can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash group slash Effectively Wild.

Also, check out the show page for links to sign up for Effectively Wild's 2024 MLB Ballpark Meetups. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We hope you have a wonderful weekend, and we will be back to talk to you next week.