Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2141: What Did Sho Know?

Episode Date: March 23, 2024

In an in-depth discussion that became a bonus episode, Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley explore the state of the sports-betting scandal surrounding Shohei Ohtani and his former interpreter Ippei Mizuhara, breaking down the stakes, the most pressing sources of uncertainty, and the many possible outcomes and consequences. Audio intro: The Shirey Brothers, “Effectively Wild Theme” Audio outro: […]

Hey, folks, this is Ben. And this is Meg. And we are here to provide a pre-podcast preamble update to what you're about to hear us talk about. Because some stuff that we said is slightly outdated because there have since been some developments. So, Meg, we talked about the need for MLB to investigate Shohei Otani and Ipe Mizuhara and the business that has been going on surrounding them. And we have news on that front. Yes. I made such a good point that they got on it. They got on it in the past. Before we even published the pod. For immediate release, March 22nd, 2024, Major League Baseball statement. Major League Baseball has been gathering

information since we learned about the allegations involving shohei otani and ipi mizuhara from the news media earlier today our department of investigations doi began their formal process investigating the matter and they give the contact information for mlbpr who i'm sure needs a beer. They also misspelled Ipe's surname in this statement. So hopefully the Department of Investigations can now that they're formally investigating, maybe they can figure out how to spell his name at some point in the investigation. Well, that's good. I think you even mentioned when we talked about this, that there might be an announcement by the time people heard this episode. And in fact, that is the case. So news was dumped on a Friday in classic Friday news dump fashion.

Now you know, and now you can listen to the rest of our conversation. Yes. It's effectively wild and it's wildly effective. It put baseball into perfect perspective. Impressively smart and impeccably styled. It's the wildly effective, effectively wild. Hello and welcome to episode 2141 of Effectively Wild, a Fangrafts baseball podcast brought to you by... I don't know if I'm going to be able to recover enough to do it again. It's brought to you by our Patreon supporters.

You're just going to keep going? I'm just going to, you know what, sometimes you just have to meet the moment with who you are and not who you want to be, you know,

be honest. And I am honestly very tired. This is episode 2141. I am Meg Rowley. You are Ben Lindberg. We are here because of our generous Patreon supporters and also because I have to deliver unto you takes that I worry you will not like about Shohei Ohtani. Hello, Ben.

Hello. Well, no cover up in the intro to this podcast. No. Changing our intro here. Just sticking with the first flubbed one. Yeah, you know, last time we talked, I did a stat blast about how the only things that could derail the Dodgers having an all-time top of the lineup

were injury or underperformance on the field. I did not have on my list of possibilities Shohei Otani's status being uncertain because millions of dollars were wired from his bank account to an illegal bookmaking operation. I failed to foresee that somehow. Our bold predictions pod isn't until next week, and now major sports gambling scandal has been taken off the table. Yeah, it was going to be one of mine. Gosh, I feel like I'm laughing at a funeral. You know, you get to that point of being tired where it's just like well i guess i'm laughing

now this is what my body's decided to do no laughing matter big oh it's really not and i had so much stress been about how to talk about it right because well maybe i'll start with a macro thought because that'll bring me down to earth. I do feel like there's some real loosey-goosey narrative building going on around this whole thing. Sometimes from media members, you know, it's like this is a pretty big deal. So maybe we want to stick to what we know and then be very clear about speculation and also keep our tinfoil hats on the shelf. What we know is pretty loosey-goosey, too, because the narratives on the Otani team have been similarly sloppy and kind of confounding. I have a notion to put to you, Ben, and I don't think it is a particularly, like, original thought or even necessarily, like, a revelatory one, but one that might upset you. And I will offer the further caveat that I don't want to impugn your integrity just because you

happen to love this man in a way that is definitely secondary to like your immediate family, but probably ranks higher than some of your friends. Yeah. No, look, I'm being clear-eyed about this. I think I'm being open-minded. I hope, of course, that he's innocent. Who wouldn't want him to be innocent and completely squeaky clean? I mean, it's better for him, better for baseball. I don't know why anyone would want him to be seriously implicated here, but obviously that is a very real possibility.

So here is what I think. be seriously implicated here, but obviously that is a very real possibility. So here's what I think. I don't know one way or the other whether Otani himself participated in bets through an illegal bookmaker. We do not have any evidence to that end at this point. And so I think, you know, this is like the position that I know our friends Jake and Jordan took on their podcast when they discussed this the other day. Like, until we have evidence of that, I'm going to choose to believe that he has not participated in gambling through an illegal bookmaker. And there are kind of two questions related there, right? Did he himself bet? And then did he or Ipe bet on baseball? And both of those are very important to answer. But I don't think it's useful at this juncture to speculate because particularly since this is a question that is being investigated by the United States government, we're probably going to know the answer definitively one way or the other. So I'm going to wait for that answer to sort of come down the line. But one thing that we can answer right tippy top, which is Major League Baseball has

to investigate this. They need to launch a very thorough investigation. And I know that their ability to gather information is going to be dictated in large part by whatever timeline the DOJ is on and what they have access to may be dependent on the DOJ's findings. But gambling by people affiliated with the sport, particularly by players or managers, it's the scandal that is an existential threat to baseball. It's the scandal that is an existential threat to baseball. Steroids are bad. The banging scheme was bad. But both of those transgressions were at least directionally in pursuit of winning. Now, I'm not saying that they are right, that they aren't cheating, that they're justified because they are in pursuit of winning.

That's not the point I mean to make here. But they are in pursuit of winning. That's not the point I mean to make here, but they are in pursuit of winning. Gambling by parties that have the ability to have some influence on the outcome of a game may or may not be directionally aligned with winning. And so I think that when everyone gets back to the U.S., because I know that the Dodgers were, you know, they were in South Korea. I don't know Rob Manfred and not an underling, but Rob Manfred needs to step to a mic and say, this is about the integrity of our game. And we don't know the answer, but every single person affiliated with our game has an obligation to maintain the competitive integrity of the game. And that's true if you're a journeyman. And that's true if you're the biggest star of the game. And that's true if you're a journeyman, and that's true if you're the biggest star in the sport. And they have to take this very seriously.

And like you, I hope that the answer is, you know, either that, and was taken in by Ipe and was the subject of theft and fraud, or in what I imagine is more likely but still sort of well-intended timeline, that he discovered that his friend had made disastrous bets, was in deep, and decided to help his friend out and didn't appreciate the legal ramifications of that decision um and then his camp upon hearing what ebay had told espn was like oh god we have he has potentially opened otani up to a tremendous amount of legal exposure we have to backtrack this whatever the answer is there like the league has to take this seriously and they need to do it like right now and i understand all the incentive they have to hope that it just goes away that they can say well

you know we want to defer to the department of justice we want to see what the results of this broader investigation are. We know that Otani's camp has apparently referred their accusation of him being a victim of fraud to some unnamed enforcement authority. I don't think that they can do that. When they opened the door for gambling to be part of the sport from an entertainment perspective for fans, a lot of people said, we've held this line on gambling in the past. going to an illegal bookie and opening up your DraftKings app, right? Those are legally distinct activities from one another in the state of California. Right. Well, I guess they're both illegal in the state of California, but they are legally distinct activities. And, you know, a player betting on other sports in a state with legal sports betting

is not a violation of Major League Baseball's rules, provided that they aren't doing it through an illegal bookmaker. But this is the biggest potential problem that the sport could have. Only to show that they appreciate the very real threat it poses to the sport and have appropriate urgency about it, they have to open an investigation. And if it takes a long time, it takes a long time. Like, I think that's fine. And it could be that by the time we post this episode, they've said, you know, we've formally opened some sort of investigation. The statements that they have issued publicly around this question don't exactly close the door on it. They haven't said they're never going to look into it. They've said they're gathering information. And it's like, well, isn't that just an investigation? But, you know. Right. It's sort of a semantic difference, maybe.

But it's an important semantic difference. And I think that the commissioner needs to have, in the best interest of baseball moment and i know that his and the owners and you know the broader sports immediate short-term interest is shohei otani being this incandescent star and this huge attractor to the sport but the real long-term best interests of baseball are served by them looking at this and really taking seriously the possibility that something nefarious happened because it seems like at the very least someone along the way got mixed up about the details of this story and it would be good for us to to understand what they really are and so i think uh they gotta take a peek yeah mean, it's shocking that this has happened, especially because prior to this week, Otani had a pretty unimpeachable reputation on a personal level.

Admittedly, in part, because we didn't know much about him on a personal level. But pretty much the worst thing you could say about the guy is that he was one of the celebrities who shielded crypto. shield crypto. And then I can't think of anything else other than the fact that people complained about how secretive his free agency process was, which we thought was sort of ridiculous at the time. And then this offseason, as we have learned slightly more about him for a while there, it only made him more wholesome and likable. Oh, he has a cute dog. At least most people thought it was a cute dog. Do you think the dog was in bed with the bookie here? I don't think the dog isn't cute. I just think there's something weird about it. It's too cute, arguably.

Something weird with that dog. Maybe the dog plays the bets. Right. But hey, he found love. He's married. Look how cute they are together. Well, now we know one other thing, and it is not cute. It is serious and I don't know whether the state of his UCL or the

state of his financial transactions poses a more existential threat to his career personally but at least the UCL doesn't endanger his hitting and obviously this is bad for baseball it's bad for baseball in any way even if this turns out to be nothing more than a sad story about Ipe, Otani's close friend and confidant and interpreter here. It's still bad for baseball that this is the object of everyone's attention. Now the season is about to start. There were season opening games. Everyone is talking about Shohei Otani and a sports betting scandal. And that is completely fair. We should be talking about this. It's a pretty big deal. And I do agree with you that it should be treated as a big deal. I don't have any hard beliefs about what happened yet because I just don't know enough to know.

I haven't written an explainer because I currently can't explain anything and neither can anyone else who isn't directly involved. The best we can do is sort of say what we don't know or what we need to know. And I have five main questions, I think, which I'll have some sub questions and you've touched on some of them there. I think number one, the big blaring, blinking red sign sort of question is, were there bets on baseball? Right? Because that changes everything. That's not to say that this couldn't potentially be problematic and legally and reputationally if there were no bets on baseball. But if there were bets on baseball, then it's in another category. Then it is an enormous threat to Otani's career, to baseball's reputation. Of course, it could still be that Ipe was acting alone and betting on baseball, but it really is in a separate category, right? And we have no evidence as of yet that there were bets on baseball. Ipe himself has denied it, though he certainly doesn't have a whole lot

of credibility at this point. And you might say, well, if the guy is a compulsive gambler who clearly had a problem here, hard to resist the temptation to bet about baseball when you have inside info about the best player in the sport, right? So, you know, I hope, obviously, that there were no bets on baseball here, because if there weren't, then that takes this out of the category of being banned for life, probably, potentially. So that would be good. That would be better for Otani and better for baseball. Just the sequence of events from a PR perspective, why the flip-flop, right? Which is still just fairly baffling because to recap here, ESPN and maybe other reporters come across Otani made the payments and confirms that that was the case, that he made the payments to bail out Ipe and then makes Ipe available for a 90-minute interview with ESPN, seemingly with no lawyers present or involved in the process, which is just inconceivable that that happened. And then after Ipe talks to ESPN, then he recants and completely contradicts his story the next day. And Otani's spokespeople do.

And then Otani's lawyers get involved and say, actually, no, this was a theft. This was not Otani just helping out a friend ill-advisedly here. was a theft. This was not Otani just helping out a friend ill-advisedly here. And there was one explanation advanced in an ESPN article on Thursday about why these storylines changed. Just a quote from Tisha Thompson here on Thursday, a source close to Otani gave an explanation for the changing storylines. As Otani's handlers tried to determine what had happened, they initially relied solely on Mizuhara, who continued to translate for Otani. After Wednesday's season opening game in South Korea, when they were observed still being buddy-buddy, Dodgers officials called a clubhouse meeting and told players a negative story was coming later in the day, a team official said, and Mizuhara apologized, saying he had a gambling addiction. It was then, the official said, that Otani understood for the

first time what was happening and began asking questions. So, this makes it seem like Ipe was being even more deceptive here, that he was saying one thing to them, that they trusted him, that this came as a complete shock to everyone. Ipe says he's never mistranslated anything. Right. He denies that accusation. Yes. And also, I think there's ample evidence that Otani speaks enough English to, I mean, he's not completely in the dark, right? Just from people who've been around him, he speaks English fairly proficiently and understands it fairly proficiently. He doesn't speak publicly, usually, he has on

occasion, but you know, you don't want your words misconstrued if it's not your first language, but it's not like Ipe could have just said anything in Otani's presence and he would not have known, right? So you can't completely play dumb there, right? But I mean, look, however it happened, I think this was very clearly mishandled. Yes. And it's kind of shocking because, I mean, Otani's known for really having a tight lid on everything with his personal life. That's why we don't know much about him or haven't historically. And so the fact that they really seem to not have their story straight or their tux in a row here when something this serious surfaced.

Yeah, very odd. I guess you could say that maybe it speaks to the level of trust that Otani had in Ipe. That's one possible interpretation, right? And you could say, gosh, he trusted him so implicitly that they would just send him out there because it didn't cross his mind that Ipe might have been stealing from him the entire time or would spin some story that wasn't true. So you could say that it backs that up. Or, of course, you could say that there was just some naivete going on here, that people just were not aware of things that they should have been aware of. Obviously, whoever was placing these bets should not have been placing these bets in

this way in the state of California. So clearly people did not know the things that they should have known. But obviously some people have interpreted this not entirely unreasonably to show that, well, the original story was the accurate one. And then they realized, uh-oh, we just admitted potentially to Shohei Otani knowingly. Engaging in criminal activity. Right. Or potentially criminal activity. Yeah.

Illegally wiring payments to an illegal bookmaking operation, even if it was with the best motives and intent. Oh, we cannot say this. Uh-oh, we get to pivot and change our story to protect Otani here with or without Ipe's participation, right? So that leads, I guess, to my third question, which is if there is a cover-up here, is that then worse than the crime if there was a crime, right? Because if it is changing a story to protect Otani, well, it certainly seems like a lot of this is going to come out one way or another. It's going to be clear. You know, I guess it might be difficult to establish who was placing the bets or what was known when those payments were made with 100% certainty.

But there is potentially a greater risk there if you're falsely accusing Ipe of theft here. And assuming Ipe isn't on board with falling on his sword for that, like, you know, maybe he would have been on board with falling on his sword to some extent. But when we're talking about going to prison, you know, potentially, I mean, not just placing illegal bets or making illegal payments, but also stealing millions of dollars from Otani. Like, you know, if that's not true, is he going to go along with that story? Right. So that makes you worry. Maybe if your conclusion is the most logical explanation here is, oh, Otani was just trying to do a solid for Ipe here. Well, if Ipe isn't on board with taking the full fall for this thing, then that could be an even worse outcome for Otani. And then I think the fourth question is what you led with, which is, will Manfred and MLB handle this any differently for Otani than they would for anyone

else, right? And Otani has had his own rules in some ways. There is an Otani rule. There's literally an Otani rule. Yes. They have changed the rules of baseball to make it possible for him to be a two-way player and be in the All-Star game as a DH and a starter. Right. But you cannot change the rules in this situation for him and have any kind of credibility on these matters, which is pretty important. And yeah, there's some hypocrisy in the sense that MLB and other sports leagues are pushing gambling constantly, as we talked about last time. I don't know that that would stop them from acting here because they could say, well, yes, we push legal establishments and this was outside the bounds. So we discourage this sort of thing. They could draw a line there even if it's not a completely clear line and separation.

You can be bombarded with ads for legal sportsbooks in California that are not legal for you to bet on. bet on, right? And so, I think you're right that they have to follow this wherever it leads and be diligent and proactive about that. And, you know, you can investigate Otani and it could turn out that there is no action that MLB would or should take here legitimately. That is possible. You know, as you said, MLB players and employees are allowed to bet legally on other sports. They just cannot bet on baseball. And of course, they cannot bet illegally. That's against the law and also baseball's laws. But I mean, reading from the rules here, right? I mean, any player, umpire or club or league official or employee who places bets with illegal bookmakers or agents for illegal bookmakers shall be subject to such penalty as the commissioner deems appropriate. So it's not really specified

there. You know, if you are working for an illegal bookmaker or you are one, then there's a minimum of a one-year suspension. If you were betting illegally on one, well, it's not entirely clear, right? And there's a broader clause, Rule 21, Section F, which says, nothing herein contained shall be construed as exclusively defining or otherwise limiting acts, transactions, practices, or conduct not to be in the best interest of baseball, and any and all other acts, transactions, practices, or conduct not to be in the best interest of baseball are prohibited and shall be subject to such penalties, including permanent ineligibility as the facts in the particular case may warrant. So that's just a pretty broad, even if you did something that wasn't strictly defined

in the rules or the CBA, we can still decide to discipline you. And I guess it then depends maybe on the motives here. I mean, it's different perhaps from the commissioner's perspective if Otani was placing bets illegally or if he was paying off debts is that he's the gambler himself. He's the one with the problem and he's trying to pass it off on someone else. And the other is that he was perhaps naively, ill-advisedly trying to help out a friend. Help his friend. If it's that one, I don't know that people would necessarily think worse of Otani like as a person, you know? I mean, you could even think, oh, he was trying to help a friend. And of course, like he might not have known the full extent. Even if he was aware of the payments, he might have thought it was for something else. He might not have known it was illegal bookmaking.

He might have thought it wasn't the extent that it was. Who knows, right? Right. But, you know, you wouldn't necessarily say ban the guy or even suspend him maybe if he was just trying to cover bets that someone else had made and he was trying to help him out of his situation. You know, I think it is very different in terms of the justified punishment there. different in terms of the justified punishment there. And morally speaking, whoever placed these bets, as long as they weren't on baseball, well, many millions of sports fans have placed bets on sports and probably illegal bets on sports before betting on sports was legalized. And it is legal in most of the country now, but not in California. So the actual behavior here when it comes to placing the bets isn't a heinous thing. The victim of that crime is the person who's placing the bets and losing the

money. And then I guess the final question for me at least is how quickly will this proceed? When will we hear from Otani, if at all? When will we hear from his team? When will we hear from MLB? Will this be hanging over his head and the sports heads the entire season? Will it just be, well, let's sit back and wait for the IRS to investigate because the IRS is looking into this too. Who knows how long things will take to win their way through the legal system and not great, obviously, for this to be an ongoing situation where the lack of clarity fuels the intrigue and the conspiracy theories and the gossip and the discussion. How does that affect the season? How does that affect Otani, right? So we've seen him go out and have great games right after learning that he has to have Tommy John surgery, but how does he react to something like this? I don't know what sort of timeline we're looking at here. It's possible

that we'll be stuck with this story for quite some time to come. I have so many thoughts about so many of the things that you just said. So I'm going to start with the question of sort of his motivations and what influence or relevance that might have to a potential investigation. I think that the idea that you as a friend might see a very close friend and confidant in a position like we have here and have a human instinct to want to help that person. And hey, guess what? You're a very wealthy professional athlete. So good news, you can actually do something about that. That as a human instinct is very legible to me.

I think that there's probably a distinction to be drawn here between his exposure under Major League Baseball's policies around illegal bookmaking and gambling and whatever legal exposure he has. And I'm not going to speak to that because I'm not a lawyer, but I do know enough after being talked out of law school by my mom that like ignorance is not a defense under the law in the United States. So, you know, whether he knew that this was illegal or not is potentially irrelevant to that question. I also know from some of the coverage that has come out in the last couple of days that it's an open question how

motivated to prosecute, you know, any of the people involved in this bookmaking operation who aren't the bookmaker would necessarily be. Right, exactly. That's my understanding. Yeah, it's illegal one way or another, but whether he's going to be indicted or prosecuted for this, like, they motivation is going to probably be relevant to Major League Baseball, whether it should be or not, because regardless of whether or not they open an investigation, and I want to be fair to the league here and say that, you know, the fact that they haven't opened one yet doesn't mean that they won't open one. And, you know, again, everybody's coming back to the U.Ss for the start of the season so it could be that we see movement on that question very quickly right once everybody's back stateside

so i don't i don't want to be unfair but i suspect that he and his people haven't necessarily done themselves a favor here by having the story change and have the story go from one of, I was helping out a friend, I didn't trust him to basically use this money to cover the debt, which if you have a friend with a gambling addiction, I also think is like a pretty understandable reaction, right? To say, I'm going to do it so that I know that the debt is covered and that you are not using this money to then place further bets with the bookie. Okay, fine. But now you've shifted your story from I was helping out a friend to that friend stole from me. And there is, I guess, a scenario where both of those things can be true simultaneously, right? It could be that Otani facilitated the wire transfers that we know about that ESPN has reported on. And then in the course of either, you know, hearing back

the details that he that Ipe shared with ESPN or, you know, further inquiries from other media outlets, something in the information shifted. And maybe he's like well i know this number and now i'm hearing this number right there were nine payments so he might have been involved in some and not others but not others right so and i know that there's been a lot of speculation about how easy or difficult it would be for epa to have i feel weird addressing him by his first name, but that's just like how he always gets talked about. I know. That's an interesting element to this is that like for most players, you would not know the name of their interpreter. Absolutely no idea. Yeah.

Right? Even if they had an interpreter or like whoever their sort of, you know, person in an Ipe-like role who takes care of other things for them. Right. They wouldn't be like kind of a character in their lives publicly. But because we know so little about Otani's personal life and because Ipe and he have just been inseparable, right? Like it's a tandem duo. It's like Shohei and Ipe, right? Like that's why, you know, I think there's just that personal dynamic here that this person is known to everyone in a way that typically a person in this role would not be. Right. Okay. Hold on to that thought because I'm going to circle back to that.

So, you know, I know there's been a lot of speculation publicly like, oh, you know, banks have all these procedures. And it's like they do have procedures for moving money. But, like, I think people are kind of – and I don't know. I obviously don't know the specifics of how Otani's finances are structured and who might be, you know, authorized to move money on his behalf. But, like, I think that it's useful for people to remember that, like, the way that rich people, like, fabulously rich people's finances operate are very different from ours. Right. And so, you know, which isn't to say one way or the other, but I just like, I think that a lot of people are thinking about like, well, if I, you know, sent $500,000 to a bookie, my spouse would know. And I'm like, think about the first part of that sentence and tell me if you actually know how that process would actually work. I was going to say that too, right?

I don't want to be Pollyannish about this. Everything is completely plausible and on the table. completely plausible and on the table. But for a person like this, who's been famous and rich, you know, by normal person standards for a very long time and from a very young age, you know, you might delegate things that you or I might not, right? You just, you have people for that. And yeah, wiring this amount of money, it's not as simple as paying someone for food on Venmo or whatever. I get that. But I would not be surprised to learn that there were processes in place where people, perhaps including Ipe, just handled those things for Otani. And he's not checking his balance necessarily because it's just like – I mean he made $65 million last year.

early because it's just like, I mean, he made $65 million last year. He's making $65 million again this year, even with the $2 million from the Dodgers because of the endorsement deals that we mentioned the other day. And it wasn't even a one-time $4.5 million payment. It was dribs and drabs. Yeah. Although, to be clear, the size of those dribs and drabs does mean that somebody somewhere was scrutinizing those dribs and drabs because, you know, it takes a minute for bigger amounts to clear your account. Yes, it's true. move money within them if there were standing instructions that would have indicated they don't need a callback like there's all kinds of stuff that could have facilitated the potential for fraud so i just don't know i don't know if he committed a crime or not but i think the fact that the story changed is going to require scrutiny from baseball when it does an investigation and might diminish whatever goodwill he would have engendered by trying to do his close friend and confidant a solid when he's now, his people are accusing that individual of fraud. So,

it muddies the waters on that question, I think, in a pretty meaningful way. Yeah. Yeah. Look, do I think Otani is secretly a degenerate gambler? I would say less likely than not, but then I didn't think he was secretly married either. So we don't really know these people. We don't know these guys. Right. This is the thing that we always say on this pod,

like we just don't know these guys. And so I think we unfortunately have to leave open the possibility that the worst case is, you know, it's not impossible that it be true. I do want to acknowledge here that like, regardless of whether or not there was a fraud, regardless of whether or not everyone involved had full clear-eyed understanding of the laws and we're like, yeah, we're going to break them anyway, or what we're truly ignorant to the situation. Like this is a sad story. Yeah. Just on a personal level. Yeah.

Yeah. And it does sound like if we take at face value that Ipe was gambling to some degree that resulted in meaningful debts, which means he was gambling a lot because I'm sure that he wasn't losing all the time, right? You know, this is a person who does need help. And I can understand a friend wanting to offer that help. And like gambling addiction is very real and it can ruin people's lives. It's ruined his life. Like whether he goes to jail or not, like he was never going to work in baseball again right this relationship that is clearly important to both him and otani is at the very least rendered very different now you know if not just severed entirely and like that's that's very sad and you know i think the you're right to say

that once the question is answered in a way that everyone feels satisfied by, was there any betting on baseball at all, whether it was Ipe or somebody else? Was there any betting on baseball? If that question is answered, no, no betting on baseball occurred. It really was just what it was supposed to be basketball in the NFL and like soccer. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. And I, I don't want to be, I'm about to say a thing that is going to shock our listeners. i don't want to be i'm about to say a thing that is going to shock our listeners i don't want to be unfair to draft kings or you know or any of these other sports books or the league's partners or whatever like this didn't happen under a sanctioned with a sanctioned sports book right this was an illegal bookie you know um it is also just as an aside like

man rich people and illegal bookies what's up with that what's going on with you guys like from time immemorial i don't want to just like grab this as a way to like zats the league on a pet issue but like regardless of the the disposition of the sports book like this is part of what people are worried about when it comes to MLB, the NFL, the NBA, whatever, you know, going open arms into gambling. Like this is something that gets away from people and it doesn't get away from everyone. And there are plenty of people who like this is the stupid thing they spend money on and they have a fun time and it's fine. And like they can pay their bills and they're not like gambling away their kids college funds like you know i don't

want to overstate the case but it can get people you know it can get away from people and it can become a very real problem in their lives and this is a super dramatic like example of that but it doesn't you know most of the people who have their lives and finances wrecked by, you know, gambling addictions, it's not a juicy story. We don't hear about them. Yeah. And it's legal in many of those cases. And that has happened in other sports too, where there have been scandals and it was going through one of the legally sanctioned sports books, right? So they're more likely to flag that sort of thing. You're more likely to be caught maybe, unless you then get caught up in a federal

investigation. But yeah, your life can easily be ruined either way, whether it's legal or illegal. And so I think that it's worth the league trying to sit with that for a minute. And, you know, trying to sit with that for a minute and you know if if this all gets to a place where it comes out that they and importantly like the doj this sorry as an aside like gosh for his lawyer's sake there better have been a fraud because there's like an active doj investigation they're just out here alleging fraud like anyway, anyway, that aside, you know, I think that, you know, let's say that at the end of all of this, the DOJ completes its investigation.

The league does its own due diligence and investigation. And at the end of it, we come to learn that no one bet on baseball. Otani, in a moment of tenderness toward a friend, tried to pay off debts and then yeah maybe backtrack with a bogus story but did that because he was worried he was suddenly opening himself up

to legal liability he's not a gambler this is the we have a complete understanding of the universe of bets that were placed the league levies either a suspension or in all likelihood a fine, right? There is precedent, you know, as Ken Rosenthal and Andy McCullough pointed out in their story at The Athletic Today that there have been instances in the past where baseball players have placed bets with illegal bookmakers that were not on baseball and they didn't have to serve a suspension. They did pay an undisclosed fine. Jared Kosart in 2015. Yeah. For violating the rule because there was a very clear rule, right? But that, you know, it didn't result in him being banned from baseball.

It didn't result in him having to serve a suspension. He paid a fine and that was it. Let's imagine that all of that comes to pass and they either fine Otani or, you know, maybe he serves a suspension for having changed his story, whatever. Like, at the heart of this is still this issue that, like, you have, you know, a business, the legal version of which is still potentially quite damaging to people, and Major League Baseball is sitting in bed with it, you know? And Major League Baseball is sitting in bed with it. And I don't imagine that Ipe was ignorant to the fact that this was a violation of the rule, if only because I know that the league gives a very stern talk in spring training every year around the rules about this because they desperately want to avoid a scandal. Sorry, guys. Didn't work. Needed a better chat, I guess. But there's still going to be an unease and

attention here. And even if by some, you know, stroke of luck, the league avoids the worst case scenario that their best, most popular player has been placing bets on baseball, right? That's the worst case scenario. They're able to, let's say that they're able to avoid that, which to to this point i have no reason to think that they won't at least be able to avoid that you're brushing up against a ghost because it's going to happen eventually you know and it might happen with someone who has a better understanding of all the rules in place does a better job covering it up is a more more central figure, is the original subject of the investigation, right? I think part of what comforts me in this, as someone who is really hoping that Otani's nose is mostly clean in at least the bedding part of this, it is comforting

that he was not the original source of the investigation, subject of the investigation. It sounds like that was very much the bookmaker and then Ipe by extension. But it's not a good situation. And the idea that it is going to be avoided forever seems desperately naive to me. And that's a really big problem. I can't think of a more startling shot across the bow, if that's what this ends up being, than involving literally Shohei Otani. Right? Like, oh, boy.

It's a real mess. And, like, opening day is next week, and this is what we're talking about. And we're going to be talking about it until there are more conclusive answers. And now I want to circle back to the idea of Otani not talking about this. And then I will stop talking because I candidly can't remember half the things that I've said. I can appreciate how, particularly in a moment like this, where the story has changed, there have been accusations leveled of fraud. There's this counter-narrative where like, Otani might have done a little like crimes um

that his lawyers may have said shut up dude don't say anything else but part of the problem with his prior sort of lack of disclosure and that persisting into this moment is that some of the conspiracy theories that have grown up around this in just the last couple of days are unhinged. And the problem is that since the story has changed, there's just going to be a slice of the baseball going public that forever thinks that this guy definitely bet on baseball and that Ipe took the fall for it. I know. That is a shame, right? I mean, there will always be some sort of Michael Jordan gambling conspiracy sort of thing associated with him, even if there's seemingly no basis to it, which stinks. I mean, it's possible that this will blow over eventually, that people will kind of forget it. Like, LeBron had an associate who was embroiled with an illegal

bookmaker, and it just wasn't connected to LeBron and it's not really an ongoing concern, although you didn't have payments, I think, coming from LeBron's account, which would make it a little bit different. But yeah, just, I guess, a few final thoughts. So one is that I wouldn't underestimate the extent to which rich people can be clueless about money.

Sure, oh yeah, yes, I agree. He didn't grow up rich, right? Wouldn't underestimate the extent to which rich people can be clueless about money. Sure. Oh, yeah. Yes, I agree. He didn't grow up rich, right? But he has been well provided for since he was a kid. If it is true as multiple sources, not just Mizuhara, but unspecified multiple sources have told the SPN that he doesn't bet. He doesn't bet on baseball. There was no bet on baseball here, right?

His former teammates say he didn't even pay attention to other sports, et cetera, et cetera, right? Right. Again, there could be things that no one knew, but I think it would not shock me to learn that he has just been so baseball focused. You know, it doesn't seem like money has been the top priority for him

as he has left money on the table at various points in his career. If he was just like, look, I'm just going to work out and play baseball and do my thing. Have my secret wife. Have my secret wife and then you take care of the money stuff, right? Yes. Trusted Ipe implicitly and, you know, that there was some power to do this. I don't know whether it's a coincidence that the two payments ESPN saw were made in September and October when Otani was getting surgery and just recuperating from surgery. But yeah, look, I, again, don't want to be gullible

here, but it really would not surprise me to learn that there was some possibility to slip this past Otani, that he was not keeping a close eye on this. I've seen some people question, well, why would an interpreter get such a line of credit from this bookmaker? You know, he was making $300,000 to $500,000, it sounds like, but why would they let him get this deeply in debt? I think that could be because maybe he played up his association with Otani. Maybe he said, Otani will bail me out. There was some- Maybe the bookmaker hoped he'd have leverage over Otani. Yeah, could be. It was reported by ESPN that the bookmaker, Matthew Bowyer, allegedly liked

talking about Otani to other clients, right? Might have fabricated the degree of connection there potentially. Also, you could say that if Otani was the one placing the bets indirectly, like why would he ever have gotten so deeply into debt? Because like he has a lot of money, you know? That thought did occur to me too. Yeah. But yes, I had the same sort of thought you did that it would obviously be far worse if there is actually something really actionable here legally or from baseball's perspective. But it's still bad if the only upshot of this is that Ipe's life is ruined and people will always suspect Otani of having done something or suspect NLB of covering something up because Otani is the golden goose, right?

Yes. And some people, you know, misinformation is a problem in many spheres and that could potentially be a problem. But obviously, we're a ways away from knowing what is misinformation here. So I'm glad you brought the question of like, why would he extend credit like this? Because, I mean, I do think that the potential explanation that I offered, and I want to say again, like, I don't know, but that is a potential explanation that occurs to me. Like, that's part of why this is all a big problem, right? Because you don't want someone who's an

illegal bookmaker having any point of leverage on one of your players, right? Or a manager or anyone like you, you know, that's a, that's a potential weakness that could have really profound implications for the sport. So like, that's bad, you know, it's bad regardless. And part of why I imagine major league baseball, in addition to the legality of it is trying to make sure that these kinds of associations don't occur because they don't want someone who isn't you know a sanctioned regulatable actor having a point of pressure on someone who can affect the results on the field, it's potentially quite bad. I think it's bad regardless, you know? Like, it seems bad regardless.

There's no happy ending to this story, really. It's just degrees of damaging. And, you know, it's a tricky thing to talk about. I mean, we've tried to keep it light, and I had, like, a giggle fit at the beginning because I'm exhausted but you know it's a hard thing to talk about because I don't these are very serious like the potential some of the potential scenarios here come with very heavy accusations career altering life altering accusations and I don't want to be Pollyanna-ish, but I don't want to assume that, like, Otani is some, you know, calculating gambling fiend who threw his best friend under the bus because his bets got exposed, right? Like, I don't want to think that of anyone without evidence. one without evidence you know as a i don't want to like get too you know on a high horse here but like as a media member i do think i have a responsibility to like say what i know to be

true and then be responsible with drawing conclusions between facts that we have in front of us so it's a hard thing to talk about because you don't want to we've gotten got before thought before, right? We've assumed people who seem charming and loquacious and kind are, you know, they end up being jerks. We assume the performance that seems spectacular, but naturally born, you know, turned out that it was because of, at least in part, because of steroids. We just thought that everyone on that Astros team was above board. Right? Like we've been got before. And so I don't want to get got.

But I also don't want to assume the worst in people. And so it's a weird thing to navigate. And as we said at the end of all of this. Regardless of how the facts sort of solidify. And we come to know them. Like this dude's life is ruined. And that sucks. So like, it's a, you know, I just want to think about the pants again, Ben. Because they were the perfect, fun, little scandal. And this isn't fun. This is potentially like, pretty debilitating to the sport. And I don't want to overstate the case. You know, I think that will baseball survive if it comes out that like Otani was actually the one placing the bets and they were on baseball and we

can draw a bunch of conclusions from that. I mean, like, yeah, but it will be very damaging to the sport. I don't want to underrate the degree to which that would be a real problem and really diminish public confidence in baseball as a recreational pursuit so yeah i don't know man and and again i don't want to muddy the waters too much between like this thing that is obviously illegal going to an illegal bookie versus this thing that is i think legal in many places but ethically dubious which is like legalized sports betting like those are distinct and like we should but also you create an environment where everybody wants to bet. And then it's like sometimes they're going to pursue extra legal means to do that. You're not responsible for it, but it is an anticipatable problem. Right. So, yeah, I don't know, man. I didn't want to have to be thinking about this right before opening day or ever. But here we are. This is these are the weird, twisted, confusing facts, quote unquote, that we've been presented with. So this is a developing story, and it has developed slightly more just as we've been

speaking here, because ESPN's Tisha Thompson, who's been all over this, has published another piece, and it's just sort of a tick-tock from her reporting perspective of the way this went down over the past several days. I would love to have a count of all communications that happened here, but obviously Reporter was privy to only some. It's really just kind of a clarification of the sequence of events and things that we already knew, and it definitely doesn't clear up everything else. There's still some stuff that is sort of hard to square here, but I guess it pushes me ever so slightly toward the Otani was totally taken advantage of and manipulated by Ipe explanation. by Ippei explanation. It sort of sucks because anything that seemingly comes closer to clearing Otani must almost by necessity make Mizuhara look even worse. Not just a degenerate, but a

deceptive degenerate, which would probably make Otani feel worse about the dissolution of that relationship, even if it made him less likely to be punished. But I'm talking minor movement of my mental New York Times needle that's alternating wildly among the various explanations here. The main new details or takeaways from this report are that the spokesperson for Otani was a crisis communications spokesman who had just been hired and who was just getting up to speed with information from Otani's camp, which... Doing a great job, bud. Yeah, just really, really managing this crisis really, really well. Want to work with this person again. So that's one bit of news here.

The other bit, which is kind of what we inferred or speculated was a possibility, is that Otani's spokesperson and a Dodgers official is maintaining that all of the communication during this period was happening through Ipe and that reporters, Nesbilello, Otani's agent, everyone was trying to catch up on what was happening here through Ipe. And it's hard to imagine how that was allowed to happen. I mean, I know that there's a language barrier here. I know that Otani and Ipe go way, way back. But when Ipe is at the heart of this story and is the subject of such suspicion,

I don't know how you just let him handle all of the communication here. It's not even clear whether Otani was present or involved in these conversations or whether Ipe was just relaying what Otani said or reporter as saying, yeah, I sent several large payments. That's the maximum amount I could send. But it's not at all clear that he actually said that or whether Mizuhara just said that he said that. Right. And then I guess one – yeah, there's more details in here about Ipe saying Otani doesn't like gambling. He's always wondered why anyone gambles. He has no interest in gambling, et cetera, et cetera. You know, take that for what it's worth, which is not a whole lot, right? He says his wife, Ipe's wife, wasn't aware of any of this even, right?

And according to this, Andrew Friedman stood up at that Dodgers team meeting after the game and said that Otani had helped to cover Ipe's losses. I wonder if the Dodgers became aware of this during that game. Is there any way they could or should have known about this sooner? On the way back to the hotel, Otani starts asking questions about what had been said in the clubhouse. The Otani spokesman told ESPN, and that's when his representatives say Otani told them he didn't recognize Mizuhara's version of the events. According to the spokesman, Otani discovered for the first time Wednesday that money was missing from his account. Otani's representatives had continued to rely on Mizuhara to communicate with Otani while they were dealing with the situation, and Mizuhara did not tell Otani what was happening. That's the story. Ipe was lying. Shohei didn't know, is what the spokesman says.

It's a declarative statement. Put it that way, right? Like, it's very definitive. I did not know and did not participate in the wire transfer part of it, right? Like, that's the version of events that his camp is putting forth. Yes. In the initial version of events that his camp is putting forth yes in the initial version of events ipe said that otani had made the payments but that he didn't know who they were to or that it was illegal and that neither of them had considered the implications of it potentially being illegal so at the the very best like otani was way too trusting here, clearly in retrospect. Why were they still relying on Mizuhara to translate?

Yeah, that's pretty baffling, right? Yeah, why was he still serving as an interpreter if there was this potential for malfeasance? There's a language barrier here, obviously. They're in South Korea. They're not where the agent is. There's a time difference. I get all the complications. Yes, that's fair. And maybe this speaks, yeah, I mean, I don't know if it's, it's not wise, certainly.

But it could be an explanation that is, this matter, that maybe it just didn't cross anyone's mind that he might have done something so nefarious, right? The wool was pulled over everyone's eyes. That is, I guess, what they're going with. what they're going with. Yeah. I don't know what to make of the fact that it's not known yet what enforcement authority is potentially investigating those claims.

But I don't know that us not knowing that really says anything one way or the other. I don't know. I also think that we like, we feel like we know how these things go down because we watch TV and then we realize that we don't actually.

Like there's probably just the one office investigating naval crime, Ben. It's probably not all over the world, you's probably just the one office investigating naval crime, Ben. It's probably not all over the world, you know. Just to call back a Patreon episode. I don't know. How do you feel about the tone that we've struck over the course of this hour? It feels uneven to me. I don't know.

I don't know if we did exactly what we wanted. Yeah, I think everyone has sort of been swinging back and forth between what they want to be true, what could potentially be true as we learn little details piece by piece. The end of this latest article is just the exchange with Ipe and with the reporter here where Ipe says, obviously this is all my fault.

Everything I've done, I'm ready to face all the consequences. When did Otani become aware of the situation? They told me I can't answer anything, he says. Otani's representatives? Are they representing you? No. Are you taking any form of payment to tell me these things? No. Have you made any kind of agreement to say these things? No. You're doing this of your own volition and free will? Yes. Did you bet on baseball? No. Did you lie to Shohei? Yes. ESPN asks if he has ever purposely misinformed Otani while interpreting the issues the reporter is asking about. Mizuhara says, no, I have never done that. So, if he wasn't misinforming Otani,

I guess he could have just not been informing him at all. That would be one way that that particular story wouldn't be a lie. He says he doesn't misinform, he doesn't mistranslate. Again, it's still unclear, I think, whether Otani was actually present in any of the communications that anyone was having with his camp or whether it was solely going through the person who may have been responsible for everything. So I guess one way they could go with this based on this narrative, if it turns out that Otani himself ever did acknowledge making the payments and that that wasn't a total fiction concocted by Ipe, you could maybe say something like he made the payments,

but he was told that it was to repay a loan or for legal bets and that the massive theft they're alleging now will be more about Ipe having coaxed those payments out of Otani under false pretenses than it is about Ipe sending the wires himself without Otani's knowledge. Clearly a lot here that still doesn't totally add up, or at least it's basically malpractice on the part of some people involved here. And I'm sure there's more that's going to come out. So, we will probably keep having to return to this story as it unfolds. Yeah. I mean, it's definitely not going to go anywhere, you know, I think. And I think the unfortunate thing is that, you know, part of what you are trying to do when you're a person in this

kind of position is avoid any appearance of impropriety, even if there wasn't real impropriety or there wasn't, you know, there wasn't impropriety that came with like an intent to gamble on the sport you're a star in, right? These kinds of things linger and people have long memories around them. And the parts that we end up knowing to be true blend with weird conspiratorial theories. You know, I think if you ask a lot of people, they still think Jose Altuve was wearing a buzzer. Yeah. Right? And so, you know, I think that just to circle all the way back and then I might finally be done with my fragmented thoughts, at least for now. You know, this is part of why creating an environment where you are saying there are

versions of betting that are good and fine, and then there are these ones over here that are illegal. It's hard to maintain those barriers. And I get that there are real reasons why you might be comfortable with one and not the other, but you're opening the door to the potential for nonsense. I don't know that's a good idea. You know, I take a pretty conservative view on this stuff, which is like one of the first times in my life I've ever said that. You know, I think that it would be fine for these leagues to just say, you can't bet on sports it doesn't matter what sport it doesn't matter if it's a soccer qualifier halfway around the world it doesn't matter it's just not worth it to us and part of what you're getting paid a big salary to do is to sacrifice your participation in this if you want to have a fantasy football league you know if you want to do like those

kind of interpersonal things that might have a little bit of money fine but any like bet that you would need to open a draft kings app to place you can't do it because it's just not worth it and i know that i'm i that that is a minority opinion you know just like i think it would be fine for the baseball writers association of america to tell baseball writers you can't vote but you can't bet on sports just sorry you're out you out. You're done. Like you can't do it. Or if you do, you can't be in this body. I think that there are lines that are really worth maintaining so that you guard against not only actual impropriety, but the perception of impropriety. Because like we said, this is just going to follow him now. I don't know that it will matter what the ultimate conclusion to whatever investigation MLB does.

This is just going to be a thing that people associate with this guy now. And it probably won't be the only thing and it might not be the biggest thing, but we still joke about Michael Jordan, like you said. Yeah. I guess we'll really know things are bad when he tries to go play for the Bulls. Right. Really get nervous. I'm like the 9,000th person to make that joke. I know, especially because he's married to a basketball player now.

That's right. Yeah. In the NFL, I think players are allowed to bet on other sports, but they're not allowed to bet on other sports from team facilities. The facility. Yeah. Their rules are even more baroque and weird than the MLB rules are. Many NFL players have been suspended for gambling violations because they didn't observe or weren't aware of that particular clause, right?

You could just walk out the door of the team facility and place your bet. And then in the NFL, non-players are not allowed to bet on other sports like league personnel, coaches, trainers, et cetera. You can't bet on any sport at all. So, yeah, it's kind of a carve out. But it is, I guess, you know, to be full on advertising, gambling constantly on sports broadcasts and then say that your players can't bet on any sports. I mean, it's a tough line to walk. And I want to be clear. Like, I think that there's a't bet on any sports. I mean, it's a tough line to walk. And I want to be clear. Like, I think that there's a distinction.

I really do. And I think that there's a really big difference between wanting to, like, bet on March Madness and placing bets on baseball. Like, I'm not confused about the difference there, right? Like, when people are like, Pete Rose should be able to be in the Hall of Fame because they have a partnership with MGM. It's like, no, he shouldn't. He bet on baseball while he was a manager. Like, Pete Rose should be able to be in the Hall of Fame because they have a partnership with MGM. It's like, no, he shouldn't. He bet on baseball while he was a manager.

Like, absolutely not. This is an easy line to clear. You know, and that's before we get into the Pete Rose as a person of it all, right? So, I want to be clear that I understand those distinctions. But I do think you're right that it's like, you know, we're all really squishy about this stuff now. And I get how people get sideways on it, you know, and it doesn't mean that they shouldn't suffer consequences. Like, Ipe can't work in baseball again. That's like a hard no now.

But it's easy to get jammed up. I think it's pretty easy for people to get jammed up on this stuff. And it's really too bad. So we've said so many words. I don't know how many of them were good, but we sure said a lot of them. We're all trying to come to terms with this story with imperfect information at best.

To pull back the curtain here, this was supposed to be the intro to our team preview pod where we preview the Yankees and the Nationals. And then Ben looked up and was like, we've been recording for an hour. We put long episodes out, but this might be long even for us. So we're just going to bonus episode.

Yeah, there you go. Not for a fun, exciting reason. We're doing four. Yeah. Extra episode. This will be Otani only. And then we will be back soon with the regularly scheduled Preview Pod. And just the shortest intro you've ever had your whole life.

Just gotten it out of our system here. Sorry, Shane. Not that we won't continue to talk about this. We're so, so sorry. All right. I will probably be writing about this soon. So if you want to read my words in addition to hearing them, check The Ringer this weekend. One other little tidbit from after we finished recording. ESPN's TJ Quinn reported MLB is expected to request interviews with all parties, including Otani and Mizuhara, a source told ESPN, although officials will have no way to compel Mizuhara's cooperation since he no longer works for baseball. Otani also has a right to refuse cooperation as a member of the MLB Players Association. Otani also could invoke his right under an interpretation of arbitration precedent to

refuse cooperation because of a criminal investigation that's already underway. Traditionally, MLB has argued a player can invoke such an exception if he is a target of the investigation, which Otani is not believed to be. So yeah, I'm not sure how much we're going to be hearing from Otani publicly in the coming days. A lot of moving parts here, and a lot to say. This is just like Craig Calcaterra, who earlier this week wrote about the various permutations this could take for what he thought would be part of his regular newsletter. It turned out to be a few thousand words, so he sent it as a separate

newsletter, much like we sent this as a separate podcast. It's hard to have a brief conversation about this subject. Really is kind of incredible how much we have talked about Otani over the past few years and for how many reasons. His two-way play, his elbow, his contract, the pleasing revelations about his personal life, and now the not-so-pleasing ones. Would rather be talking about his spectacular play, but hey, we go where the story takes us. And we hope that you will go support the podcast on Patreon, which you can do by going to patreon.com slash effectivelywild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount.

To help keep the podcast going, help us stay ad-free, and get yourself access to some perks, as have the following five listeners. Kelsey Dauphin, Josh Rodriguez, Rodney W. Schmisser, Ben Torin, and Mary Kate. Thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include access to the Effectively Wild Discord group for patrons only. That's as good a place as any to follow and discuss developments in this story. You also get monthly bonus episodes, playoff live streams, discounts on merch and ad-free fancrafts memberships, and so much more. Prioritized email answers. Check out all the offerings at patreon.com slash effectivelywild.

I assure you, it's all entirely legal and above board. No wire transfers required. If you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can still contact us via email. Send your questions and comments to podcastatfangraphs.com. You can rate, review, and subscribe to Effectively Wild on iTunes and Spotify and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash group slash effectively wild. You can follow Effectively Wild on Twitter at EWpod. You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at r slash effectively wild. And you can check the

show page for links to sign up to attend an Effectively Wild listener meetup at an MLB ballpark this season. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. As mentioned, we will be back very soon with another episode before the end of the week. It's already in the production pipeline. Yankees and Nationals previews coming up next. Talk to you then. in the buzzer going for a walk One strap on my head for them to listen to people talk Don't want to hear about baseball with nuance and

puppy and stats Yeah, yeah Don't want to hear about pitcher wins or about gambling odds Only want to hear about my child having vitals and the texture of the hair on the arm growing out of one's head I'm out.