Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2155: Just for (Slow) Starters

Episode Date: April 24, 2024

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Rockies (and their charter pilots) running afoul of the FAA, Jackson Holliday’s slow start, whether the Astros or Twins has hurt their division-title chances more, two embarrassing umpire incidents, offense being down relative to last season, the concept of a “combined Maddux,” Shohei Ohtani’s WAR as a […]

I want to know about baseball. I want to know about every single team. I want to know about Steadfast, FanGraph, Santa, about Oh Oh Oh Johnny. I'm a very modern fan, reading up on all the analytics. I want to know about baseball, presented by patreon supporters hello and welcome to episode 2155 of effectively wild the fangraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our patreon supporters i'm a grelia fangraphs and i'm joined by ben limberger of the ringer ben how are you i'm all right welcome back thank you you were traveling a little bit which meant that you flew.

Now, I don't really use Instagram, so I have not checked your reels or anything. I don't know whether you've posted any videos of yourself in the cockpit midair just pretending to fly the plane. Anything? Might I see something like that? I can't believe it. I want to be clear. Don't do this. You know, we have all kinds of rules and regs around who can do what on planes. And, you know, a good many of them aren't actually security theater.

And I feel like this is probably high on the list, but I do feel a little bit bad for all involved here because I can't imagine that this was done with any sort of nefarious intent, you know? And I imagine that they were like, it's a charter flight. It's like, you know, international waters or whatever. There are actually a lot of rules that govern what goes on in international waters. So I don't know why we always reach for that. But, you know, they probably thought they Hensley Bam Bam Mulins, posted a video of himself. The video has since been taken down, though it is available elsewhere. Video of himself in midair on a Rocky's charter flight, sitting in the cockpit with the pilots, just kind of palling around, pretending to take control of the plane. Right? Yeah.

around pretending to take control you know yet, Captain? 35,000 feet. Oh, really? Oh, great. So I'm going to start descending here pretty soon. I just press this button. You just press that button? Yeah.

Uh-huh. Keep that sign on. No harm done, ultimately. But, yeah, you can't do that post-9-huh. Oh, keep that sign on. No harm done, ultimately. But yeah, you can't do that post-9-11. You know, like, I was trying to remember when I was a kid, they used to let me in the cockpit. Like, that was a thing that happened pre-9-11. You know, I don't really recall whether that happened mid-air or pre- or post- flight, I'm not positive about that. But it was a really cool thing to be in the cockpit. And at that age, like everything, it's just so big.

And there's just like a forest of buttons and switches and toggles everywhere. Yeah, it was incredible. It was really impressive. I was sort of apprehensive to go in there. I was like, I don't want to touch anything. I don't want to screw anything up, but it was kind of cool. Now, I don't know that you can do that at all. I mean, maybe after you're at the gate or, you know, before you leave the gate or something maybe, but once the doors are sealed and everything, I imagine it's probably against regulations.

Because yeah, back then, like you could just kind of – flight attendants could come in and out of the flight deck, and now you've got the locked doors, right? And I think they mandated recently that they have to have, like, double locked doors so that the situation in the Apple TV Plus show hijack can't happen. Like, you have to have two sets of doors and then a space in between. happen. You have to have two sets of doors and then a space in between. And then did Boeing say, do you mean it though? Do you really mean it? Just kind of barricading. I'm from Seattle. I can make fun of Boeing. It's a real problem, you guys. Yeah. They're your company, I guess you can say that. The rest of us, it's offensive if we make fun of Boeing.

Right. Yeah. How dare you? Yeah. Once the flight is ongoing, once the plane is up in the air, I think it makes sense to seal off the pilots. Now, yeah, it was a charter flight. It's still a big jetliner. And regardless of how many people are on the thing, you can't do that. It was a 757, right? It was a United Airlines charter. You can't do that. It was a 757, right? It was a United Airlines charter. And yeah, I don't think Hensley Mullins was going to disengage the autopilot and send the plane plummeting to the ground or anything. I saw many people making jokes about like, it's the Rockies. They're not going to hit anything anyway, right? But I doubt anyone, you know, if he had not posted this video, it would not have come to light. Yeah.

And I wonder whether the pilots were aware that he was planning to. I mean, I guess they saw it being filmed. I don't know whether they're like, bam, bam, by the way, maybe don't post that publicly. You could get us in trouble here. Right. But I wonder how often that has happened and just no one posted a video on Instagram and so no one knew about it. Yeah, I think that like objectively it is a good thing that there be rules about this that are not contingent on us being like, but he's a nice guy, right? Like you want there to be a universality to this because, you know, I made a little joke about like, you know, security theater.

You're right. I just had to go through the whole experience. They're like, you don't have to take your shoes off today because there was a pre-check issue. It doesn't matter. And I'm like, we don't, like, okay, so does that indicate that? It doesn't matter. So I think it's good that there be consistency in how the rules are applied,

and you don't want to establish a weird double standard where, like, folks on charter flights get to do whatever they want and us normies have to you know obey stringent safety rules like this is a democracy at least for now so we gotta like uh we gotta have some some consistency in our rule application but it does feel unfortunate just because like i I said, I doubt there was any, first of all, very probably little risk and also seemingly no ill intent. I've only ever heard really nice things about the guy. But any team having this kind of like own goal where the guy basically presents evidence of malfeasance would be funny. But it being the Rockies, it's just like. It was way funnier that it being the Rockies, it's just like... Yeah, it was way funnier

than it was the Rockies. And it's not even like the Rockies are going to get in trouble, probably, or Mule and... No, I think... It's the pilots, right? The pilots that are really going to get in trouble.

Yeah. That's too bad. They were suspended while there was a review conducted. The review being, let's watch Hensley Mule's Instagram video a few times to establish that,

yep, that happened. I don't know what else there is really to investigate. It's kind of an open and shut case. But I guess, you know, have to determine, like, do you do this regularly? Was this a one-time thing? Like, did he twist your arm to get up there? Or were you like, Hensley, come sit with us? Come on up, buddy.

Yeah. And they put the fastened seatbelt sign on at one point, I think, which I don't know. Sam tweeted like that seemed almost like a passive-aggressive, please go back to your seat sort of thing. But I would love to know just how common that is. But yeah, it's the Rockies, right? It's just funny because it's the Rockies. It's so funny. I don't know if it still would have been probably funny with other teams, but it's just funnier with the Rockies, right? It's just funny because it's the Rockies. It's so funny. I don't know if it, it still would have been probably funny with other teams,

but it's just funnier with the Rockies. It's just like they sucked these United Airlines pilots into their vortex of general mismanagement or like not steering the ship very well, right? They're kind of on autopilot as an organization. And here they were with Hensley just seizing the yoke or pretending to. So, funny stuff. They aren't the only funny team, but they are definitely one of the funnier teams.

And, of course, we can have a mild laugh about it at their expense. But, yeah, I guess it is good to investigate. Like, hey, are you guys regular Latin folks that are in the cockpit cockpit during your journeys because that seems like a really bad decision i never wanted to go in the cockpit i can't speak to the um you know the letter of the regulation when we were younger but my memory is mostly the kids that got to go in there got to go in there pre or post flight and often it was like the unaccompanied minors who were flying who got to do it. Maybe I was like, hey, sorry, you have to fly by yourself

and be hounded by a flight attendant the whole time, which I get why they do it. But also I remember flying as an unaccompanied minor and I was like, I do know how to put a seatbelt on. I have done this before. But I never wanted to go up there. It's like me and the moon. I don't belong up there.

That's not for me that's not where I belong I belong back in steerage with the rest of the people yeah it's always something that like a parent would push me to do they'd be like oh go sit up there and get the little wings

oh I got the wings I got so many wings yeah and I'd always be like I don't want to bother them. I don't want to go, you know. Like, aren't they busy? Don't they have like checklists and stuff that they have to take them? Yeah. If my daughter, I'm going to try to be a parent who like, you know, sometimes you have to push your kid to do things they don't want to do or they're like, never leave the nest.

Right. But then other times it's just like, is this for you or is this for the kid, you know? Is this because it will be a cute photo or because like you wish you could do it, you know? It's almost like a stage mom sort of thing in like a low grade way. So. Yeah. I imagine navigating that dynamic as a parent is tricky because you want, you know, kids are often afraid of things because they have, you know, they only have so many experiences. And so they don't know how it's going to go when they have a new one. Like, they don't have a lot to draw from. So you want to invite them to, like, have a little bit of bravery and try new things in an effort to have them like those things and discover what they like, right? Which,

you know, one of the best ways to do that is to try stuff. But you don't want to, you know, I think you also want to be mindful of them having boundaries, even if those boundaries are still in flux and in process because they're little kids and are still developing them. So I would, I don't know, that sounds really hard. Good luck with that. Thank you. I'll need it. Someone else who is having a little trouble leaving the nest, who's run into a little early career turbulence, Jackson Holiday of the Orioles. We're going to get emails about that segue. I want you to know. A rough start, a slow start. Would not at all be surprised if by the time this podcast is posted,

he went four for five or something and broke out of this early career slump because it means nothing to me in terms of just long-term prognosis, career outlook. I'm sure it means a lot to him. It's tough to start a career this way. Sort of striking just how quickly you can go from the world is your oyster and this is the phenom and this is the number one prospect in baseball and he's tearing it up in the minors and he's never struggled. And then, you know, it's like a week later or so. I mean, he is batting 033 as we speak here on Tuesday afternoon. He's one for 30 with a single and a couple walks. He's struck out in 16 of his 32 plate appearances. That is not a percentage that you want to see, right? And ultimately, it's probably just a blip. It's probably just a little bump in the road that

he'll look back at. And I don't know if he'll laugh later, but he probably won't cry. He'll just shake his head ruefully and say, yeah, that was a tough time. But all it takes is just like a handful of games, just a week of action to go from I'm on top of the world to this is miserable. This is the worst. Everyone is talking about the fact that I'm one for 30. And I'm sure that he will catch fire soon if they stick with him, which it seems like they're inclined to do. Moments like this are always so funny. And I don't mean that in a ha-ha way. I'm sure that it's at least mildly disappointing for him.

I think, you know, the quotes that he gave to Sam Blum in the piece that Sam wrote about it for The Athletic were very level-headed. You know, I think striking the right chord, you want it to matter some, right? I suspect it's a tricky balance to strike when you're first starting out because it should bother you that it's not going well because you want to do well. And like, he's a competitive guy

and he's an excellent prospect. But I suspect you also don't want it to matter too much because you might get in your own head about it. And I thought that the answers that he gave to Sam were pretty interesting. And he seems like a level-headed enough guy. I'm sure he and the Orioles are aware that at this stage, that size of a sample doesn't mean anything, but it is something you want to pay attention to so that you can, if there are changes that he can make, if there's something wrong with like the mechanics of his swing, that he can make course corrections. But it is so funny how, you know, much the sequence on this stuff can matter because I think we tend to underestimate how many hitters are

pretty streaky in their production over the course of their careers, where they'll go through stretches where they're not hitting particularly well, and then they'll be on fire. And, you know, once you look at it over the course of 162 games and 600 or so at-bats, you're like, oh, well, you know, that was a really good season, even if there were stretches where I'm sure it was really frustrating for the player in question at the plate. And just because these happen to be the first ones for him, we don't have, you know, that really hot stretch to balance it out yet. And I don't think that anyone's looking at this, you know, there aren't any prospect evaluators I know who are looking at this going like, oh, God, we got Jackson Holiday wrong. He sucks, actually.

No one thinks that. You know, I think that there can be a conversation about, you know about would he benefit from a tune-up in the minors? Do they want him to continue to face Bigley pitching and just figure it out and see what he can do with it? I'm sure that that's a conversation that they're having internally, even if at this point they're kind of sticking with him. But I don't think anyone's like, oh, God, actually, you know, the number one prospect in baseball, you know, duh, no one's saying that. But, you know, this is part of the scrutiny that comes with being the best guy. You know, we'll have to see kind of how long it takes him to turn things around. But I wonder if this is an area where, you know, we talk about some of the inherent advantages that the sons of former big leaguers have. And oftentimes it has to do with the resources you have access to and the money that you have and how much less of a burden on your family financially like Travel Ball is. And having been in a clubhouse before and kind of knowing the politics of that space and the protocol and etiquette.

And I think that probably a big part of it is being able to call literally your dad and be like, hey, dad, how did you deal with these stretches when things weren't working for you and you had to maybe make an adjustment? And like, not everybody has access to that. They all have access to, you know,

former big leaguers in their midst in terms of coaches and player dev people and whatnot. But I bet that that's an area where there really is something to be said for the advantages that you have and might be an underrated one to be like, yeah, I'm sure. Hey, dad, what do I do? You know, how do I also, you know, he's so young that like he's got all this time in his career to course correct and change and figure it out. And I think it's going to be fine. It's definitely something you have to pay attention to and remark upon because he's the number one prospect in baseball.

But I think it's going to end up being fine. Yeah, it'll probably end up being a story we tell. Like we say, oh, Willie Mays started out one for 26 and over 12, right? And he was crying and the game was too fast for him and he wasn't sure he belonged in the National League. And then he went on to be Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle, same year, 1951. He started better, but then slumped and was striking out a lot and got demoted to the minors. And then he had a hit list streak in the minors and he was in tears and his dad showed up and I guess kind of like berated him and was like, you know, toughen up. But whatever, it worked.

I guess he went on to be Mickey Mantle. Yeah. So, you know, it's one of these cases. Mickey Mantle. Yeah. So, you know, it's one of these cases. I don't know that he will go on to be a Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle level player, but he will probably go on to be a very good player. And then we'll look back and's not like he's hurting them, really, in a macro sense. They've moved into first place. Also, an embarrassment of prospect riches there. So, okay, it's kind of deflating that the new guy, who is maybe one of the best of them all,

is not hitting immediately, but Jordan Westberg is raking, and Colton Couser is raking, and now Heston Kerstad is back up. Perfect pronunciation. Thank you. I did have to think about it as I was saying it. It was not obvious that that was an active process for you. Yeah.

Not Keston, Heston. I got it down now. Gunnar Henderson is raking. Oh, my gosh. You know, all these guys are doing so well that you can kind of carry one guy who's not doing so well when you've got the fruits of the farm system performing in so many other positions and you're winning. You can kind of take some time to wait for Holiday to get things together, which he probably will if he has a long enough leash. So it's not really concerning. It's just, you know, tough for him to start that way. And it happens sometimes. We're so spoiled because there are

so many great young players and young players as a whole have had historic offensive performances in recent years. And so we expect them all to hit the ground running, but they don't all. Many of them do. But, you know, like Victor Scott, for instance. Sure. He struggled too with the Cardinals, and he was batting 085 with a 274 OPS and 65 plate appearances, and they sent him back down. In his case, I guess it was more that he was sort of

pressed into surface because of other injuries, so it wasn't the same as Holiday. But some of these guys, they're not going to be great immediately. And many of them will be, and we shouldn't just expect and take for granted that they'll all be amazing from day one. There is still something of an aging curve, even if young players are more productive than they've ever been maybe, or than they've been in some time, there's still kind of a rise and then a fall. And some guys, it's a steeper rise than others. You know, it's like, we talk about like the sophomore slump that Julio had, and he's been kind of slow to start here, but like he had a 60 WRC plus his first month in the majors, you know? And I don't think anyone's

like, oh my God, Julio, what do we do? I mean, at the time, people were freaking... I do forgive fans feeling anxious and nervous about all of this stuff because there's so much anticipation when it's a top guy and you want him to hit the ground running right away. But there are plenty of guys who have been just okay or have had bad first months and then they make adjustments and they go on to have incredible careers and be all-stars and rookies of the year and hall of famers and all kinds of stuff so i think it's fine i i honestly i'm sure it's cold comfort to him but i think that it's important for these guys particularly when they're as young as holiday when they have this sort of wunderkind status about them, right?

He's been so good, but he hasn't been a pro for all that long. Like, I do think that them having stretches of failure is important because it's going to happen at some point in their big league careers, right? They're going to be bad for a while.

That's just going to happen. It's going to happen to guys who are amazing, who are established, right? Like, we see players who have lousy months and then they figure something out or calls start going their way or it is 10 degrees warmer and the ball just travels a little farther than it did. And when you're a guy who is as highly regarded as Holiday was as an amateur, as he was as a pro prospect, never failing in a game where you're going to constantly fail, that can do a number on guys, right? We've seen plenty of prospects who, when

they've just been good the whole time and they come up and they struggle, how they grapple with that and are able to deal with it and let in the parts of it that are instructive and indicate that they need to make adjustments versus the parts that are just like sometimes you have bad luck and you know the ball doesn't bounce right like navigating that i think is an important bat to have in your bag when you're a big leaguer and so for him to be able to like have this stretch where you're right it hasn't it hasn't changed you changed the fortunes of the Orioles. They've won 10 of their last 13. That's a perfect time to fail, arguably, because no one's going to sit there and be like,

oh my gosh, in a tight division, Jackson Holiday, he's holding them back. You've got to send him back down. If they've made the determination that the best place for him to learn and adjust is at the big league level, place for him to learn and adjust is at the big league level then he can do that because it's not going to make the difference in a division that is very competitive think about anthony volpe you know he had an 84 wrc plus last year his entire profile last year was was kept afloat by the quality of his defense which was superlative and know, then he flattened out his bat path and he made some adjustments. And now he's a 130 WRC plus. Like he's having a great start to his sophomore campaign.

And that doesn't mean it'll continue at that level, right? Like pitchers make adjustments too. But there's tons of precedent for this kind of stuff in recent memory, even for guys who their teams looked at them and said, hey, you just have to figure this out in the major. Sorry. Like, you know, the Orioles have way more options than the Yankees did last year. So if they end up making the determination that he needs to cook in the minors a little bit longer, they can do that. But sometimes guys just, they got to figure it out. And then they have great big league careers.

It's fine. I think most people are in fact relaxed. Yeah, I think so. Some Orioles fans seem very stressed, but that also seems like their base state all the time. I've seen many more people making the joke about Orioles prospects looking alike. You know, not all of them really do. I think the common element is like rosy cheeks. I don't know. I don't know why, because some of them look very similar. I don't know why because some of them look very similar.

And so people tweet all kinds of jokes about like, these are not the same player and it's four different guys. You can tell most of them apart pretty easily. But it's like the apple-cheeked aspect of them. There's something to that. It's almost like they're all wearing rouge or something. That's the thing that kind of links them together in my mind. And I guess hair color, maybe. I don't know.

Yeah. Hair length. Yeah, you got a lot of, like, longish-haired, rosy-cheeked, you know, white guys who are amongst your top players. I say, for me, it's less that they look alike. It's not so much for me that I think that they are, you know, difficult to differentiate from one the same traits betwixt and between them. So apart from the fact that they are all like lightish haired, rosy cheeked white guys, but I think it's more the Animorphs cover effect for me than, you know, it's less the what's the meme of the guys at the football game where they all lean down the rows to

take a photo and you're like, that's the same boy. Yeah. It's also partly that we keep seeing them in headshots from photo day where they're all wearing the uniform and the cap and everything. Yeah, they're all literally in the same outfit, you know, so that certainly has something to do with it. They're wearing the same uniform. Yeah, if we were to see them in street clothes, it probably wouldn't be as striking a resemblance. And if we saw their whole heads instead of part of their heads covered by Orioles caps.

Yeah, I was watching the Orioles game against the Angels last night. And, you know, Gunnar's got like the stache. He's got the hair is really flowing. He looks like a 70s movie star in my mind. Like it is a particular look and he is on point with it. It's a, you know, he's got that dialed in, I think. I was like, oh my gosh, Gunnar, wow, you're like doing a look. And you're pulling off the look, I think.

Yeah, no sophomore slump for him. Oh gosh, wow. So while we're on the subject of slow starts, we should maybe talk a little bit about teams that are off to some, which we did recently, but maybe we could drill down to two. I mentioned that the Orioles are increasing their playoff odds. They're in first place. But the two teams that have lost the most when it comes to their odds of winning the division, so not just their playoff odds. For example, the Marlins have lost close to 30 points of playoff percentage, but they had very little chance to win the division when the season started, right? Because they're in the NL East. So they have mostly lost wildcard chances. But the two teams that have far

and away lost the most in division odds, one, the Astros, who as we speak are down 26.4 percentage points in their chance of winning the division. And two, the Twins at 26.8. So almost neck and neck in terms of how much they have hurt their chances of winning their respective divisions this season. And the Astros are off to a 7-16 start. The Twins are off to an 8-13 start, but they are in a division with the Guardians, who are off to a 16-6 start. So that has hurt the Twins too. It's a combination of their slow start and the Guardians' very fast start. Whereas the Astros, they're off to an extremely lousy start. And then the Mariners and the Rangers, they've gained at their expense, but neither of those teams has

really run away with things. They're at or near 500. So that's mostly just the Astros stinking up the joint. No one else has totally seized that opportunity. So which one of those teams is more concerning? We talked a little bit about the Astros a week or so ago when we were talking about teams that had gained or lost the most in playoff odds. And I don't want to focus too heavily on playoff odds in April. These things do swing one way or the other, but still, it's, you know, because these are both divisions that are winnable by someone else. And so there's like the old saying about how you can't win a division in April, but you can lose a division in April. I don't know how much truth there is to that, but if you're very bad, you can dig yourself a hole, and these two teams are. I think I'm more concerned about the Astros, question mark.

The concentration of their injuries in the pitching does worry me a good bit. good bit. And I don't want to discount the impact that losing Royce Lewis for however long the twins are going to end up missing him and Correa for his little aisle stint. And they've lost some pitching too, but the Astros currently have Urquidy, Valdez, Javier, and Luis Garcia all on the aisle. They probably won't get Garcia back this year, right? The options that they have sort of fielded in their stead have not done well. Their young guys are not sort of taking a big step forward as they're filling in for the missing members of that rotation. Now, we'll have to see sort of how much the return of Verlander stabilizes things for them, but I don't think that you are looking at Hunter Brown and J.P. Franz and Spencer Arrighetti as much as we enjoyed meeting Spencer on our last Meet a Major Leaguer segment and thinking, oh, this is a group that can hang when October rolls around. Now, some of the names that I listed in terms of guys who are currently on the aisle, they will get back. And we will have to see how they do when they do.

I think Garcia should be back because he's throwing bullpen sessions. Well, I take it all back then. He's on track for a midseason return. You never know. There can be setbacks. Okay. My apologies. You can pencil him in at least.

But still, it's not a group that is currently super healthy and the fact that they continue to have their injuries concentrated in that part of the roster is putting them on their back foot and that would matter less if the bullpen were doing well. But they

are not really doing well. Which is more surprising to me because I thought that bullpen, at least the back of the bullpen, there was cause to be concerned about the rotation depth. And we were saying like, hey, maybe they should go get Snell. And they were at least flirting with the idea of going and getting Snell for a while. But that surprises me more that the bullpen has struggled because that seemed like a solid unit there and certainly a solid 7-8-9.

It's been a surprising letdown. And I know that they had this issue with Graveman and he will be out for the season. I'm not wrong about Graveman missing the season. And they lost a lot of other guys to free agency. Right. They lost a bunch of guys to free agency. But yeah, you thought like, oh, well, they brought in literally Josh Hader. That's going to bolster that group.

And so now they have effectively two closers at the back of that bullpen. And it just hasn't worked out that way. Now, I think that they can still hit, you know. This is a group that can still hit. But the pitching is very injured. is a group that can still hit, but the pitching is very injured. And despite the Guardians' strong start, and a KC team that's pretty frisky, like the Royals team still, and a Tigers team that I think is proving that it is pretty competent,

the less said about the White Sox, the better. I still think that that division is more easily winnable than the West, where I have been disappointed and frustrated with the Mariners at times, but they've been playing better ball lately. Their pitching seems like it's rounding into form, and the Rangers are the defending World Series champions. So I think that the Central remains a more winnable group. So I think I'm sticking with it. I'm more concerned about the Astros than I am about the Twins. Yeah, Yankees 17th. I mean, that's not so surprising. We mentioned that on our season preview that seemed like that bullpen was looking weaker

than it had in some time. Dodgers 25th. So a lot of the bullpens that we've been accustomed to being good, you know, gosh, Blue Jays 29th, right? Like these are some contenders, projected contenders who are really struggling bullpen wise. And that can fluctuate bullpen performance, especially over less than a month. So it's not necessarily the hugest cause for concern, but it can certainly sink you for a few weeks.

So, yeah, the Astros, I do believe in the offense, aside from maybe Jose Abreu, which it's getting concerning. It's so bad, dude. Getting? I mean, okay, it was concerning before the season started, but after his extremely slow start last season, he got things back on track to the point where he was at least like an average or a bit better back. I just looked at his stat line. Oh my God. Oh my goodness. Ben.

Is it a worse start than last season? Or is it? He has a negative 32 WRC plus. He has been worth. Look, here's what I'm going to say. I'm going to get on my soapbox for a brief moment. You shouldn't look at war in April.

It's silly. Don't do it. I'm going to bonk you on the nose. Don't, it doesn't, don't worry about it. Like, just don't,

just don't worry about it. Why are you looking now? Don't look now. look now arguably shouldn't even look in may you should wait until june should wait until june to look at war why are you looking at war stop looking at it stop do as she says not as she does because she's looking at it but i am i am looking at it and i feel like i am in a clockwork orange and my eyes are being pried open. He's been worth, by our version of war, negative 1.1 wins. He's been worth a negative 10. Good God. Last March slash April, he was at a 45 WRC plus, and then May was at 54. And I remember that being an extremely slow start, but I guess not this slow.

I didn't think that we were going to see the Jose Abreu of years past. Remember when Jose Abreu was good and then his final year with the White Sox, he was good, but in a different way. And we were like, whoa, he's adapting his game. He's changing as an experienced pro. Yeah, less power. That wasn't true. But last year, he also dealt with pretty persistent back issues. He didn't go on the IL despite those back issues for a while. And so I thought to myself, Meg, I thought he's not going to be what he was when he was an all-star with the White Sox, but he'll probably be better than he was last year because him hitting better into the postseason suggested that maybe the injury stuff was behind him and that he could kind of recover his form a little bit it is so bad it's very bad and i understand that that contract runs through 2025 but well i don't know maybe they'll just maybe jose abray is gonna luck out because if they keep playing super badly, their incentives to move on from him preemptively

I think diminish over time. Right? Because if you're going to lose the division anyway, do you really want to just play him? I guess. I guess. He's not really blocking anyone from a prospect perspective. But it's grim. And I'd like

to point out that I didn't sound like I'm enjoying it at all the entire time I was talking about it. Yeah. With the Astros, it's kind of like you can't count them out because they're the serial killer that always comes back to life when you think they're dead. I'd like to point out you said that and not me. You just sort of

expect like, okay, they look like they're out of it, but somehow we're going to look up in mid-october and they'll be back in the alcs again because they just always are one way or another but i don't know you know people have been forecasting the end of this run for some time now longer than they should have in retrospect because the run has continued. But yeah, maybe this is the year. But the Twins, I think I agree with you. It's a more winnable division,

even though the Guardians are looking quite good. Yeah. And they were so unaggressive over the offseason, and they telegraphed that they would be. I mean, they said, we're trimming payroll, right? It wasn't a surprise. They didn't raise anyone's expectations of an active offseason, but they didn't have one. And I think one thing that we talked about at the time was like,

well, no one's really pushing them in that division because it's not like anyone else is a super team there or is totally breaking the bank. And so my thought was, yeah, it's not great that they are resting on their laurels here, but they might very well get away with it. I thought they probably would, you know? And so I could sort of understand the lack of aggressiveness because they were in the AL Central. And even the royals who were being aggressive, they were starting from so far behind that it didn't seem like they were going to seriously push the Twins probably,

and the Guardians obviously weren't aggressive either. But now we'll see. They might pay for just thinking and acting like they could kind of coast to another division titled there. It's not going to be an easy run for them. It's definitely a feistier group than I was anticipating. And like some of the feistiness will likely fade as the season progresses and our samples grow, but I think there are teams in that division that want to win, even if some of their roster building choices are still confounding.

I don't know. We're going to find out. Also struggling, some umpires. I want to mention two particular umpire-related incidents in two different leagues, in two different continents, but let's start with the one that our listeners are probably more familiar with. Hunter Wendelstead and his run-in with Aaron Boone, who was ejected for once unjustly

without having done anything to deserve it, without having said anything. It was a case of mistaken identity. It was like a Hitchcock wrong man plot. Aaron Boone ejected by home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt because a fan who was almost perched on Aaron Boone's shoulder, just a little bit behind him, sitting behind the Yankees dugout, he called out something that Hunter Wendell said found offensive and objectionable.

And immediately Boone was given the heave-ho. And this was extremely funny. I think it was in part because the Yes Network cameras caught this so perfectly. And we had that perfect angle of Aaron Boone just sitting there silently chewing gum, minding his own business while the fan shouted out something. And we got to see the whole thing unfold.

And also the Yes Network mics were picking up most of the exchange between Boone and Wendell's set until it got, I guess, a little too colorful and they cut the sound. And so we lost some of it, but we got the gist. It's the first base umpire you saw making that call you're not yelling at me i did what i'm supposed to do a check i'm looking for him to get hit by the pit got anything else to say you're gone okay okay hunter wow you know wow we're not going to need a john boy breakdown of that one we got a very clear um there you go and now aaron's saying i didn't say anything

aaron's saying hold on a second i didn't say a word This was great. This was wonderful. And, you know, I guess if you're Aaron Boone and you are sort of notorious for riding umpires and for getting ejected all the time, maybe this kind of comes with the territory. Like, you're not going to get the benefit of the doubt because they'll just assume if someone shouted something, it was probably Boone. But also didn't reflect well on Wendelstead. It didn't. Yeah, understandable mistake at first,

but complete refusal to then admit the mistake either immediately after or post-game. Or post-game, yeah. Yeah, so did not cover himself with glory here. then admit the mistake either immediately after or post-game. Or post-game, yeah. Yeah. So did not cover himself with glory here. It was so funny. Whatever else you might say about what needs to maybe change about your ability to have recourse in the moment

if you are falsely accused of mouthing off when you were in fact sitting silent. And sitting silent at the behest of the umpire. Right. There had been joshing. And then he was like, hey, shush. And then Boone shushed. He did. He did as he was directed to. He shushed up and the fan got to jawing. Right. Yeah.

It was like five pitches into the game. Right. It was Yankees versus A's and Ester Ruiz had a hit by pitch, right? And Boone was not pleased about that call. And so it was like, you know, zero tolerance. Just the next thing someone says, you know, Wendell sets on a hair trigger here. But yes, I think, I guess in that sense, Boone brought it on himself by like getting on Wendell's stat so soon and also just his whole history of getting ejected about as often as any manager ever has to this point in his career. Yeah, But still. But still. And when, you know, I think that there are times when Boone is right and his sort of defense of his guys is justified. There are times when I think he is a little too aggressive and aggressive on a hair trigger in a way that is like probably not necessary but i also uh so i think that like you want him when he's when he is told hey too much you need to be quiet now and then he does it you want to reinforce that behavior right because this is exactly what

you want for him to sort of toe the line for the umpire to set a boundary about the kind of discourse they're going to have that day and for Boone to respect that boundary, which is what he did. And then he got an opportunity to like get his shots off because, you know, the umpire made a mistake. I think that this entire situation would probably have read really differently when it was all said and done. If post-game Wendell said had been like, hey, I saw the video. I made a mistake. It wasn't Boone. I should have been able to tell that, but I couldn't. I thought it was him, but it was a fan in the stand and stands. And I'm sorry that I ejected him for no reason.

He obviously listened to my original directive to tone it down. Right. I think that if he does that, then we all go, oh, well, you made a mistake, but you appropriately apologized and took responsibility for that. And that's really all we're looking for in this situation. When you have absolute discretion for these sorts of things, we want umps to demonstrate that they can exercise that discretion reasonably, right? And he didn't here. And then he refused to take responsibility for that. And that's a problem. Because, you know, if you're going to have that kind of power, you need to be responsible in the way that you wield it. So, I can understand people reacting to this badly.

I don't know from a practical perspective, like, what is the appropriate mechanism to intervene in a moment like this, right? Like, you noted that we had a perfect view, right? We had a perfect view of Boone with the fan behind him. We were able to see that he wasn't saying anything, right? It wasn't like, you know, the crosstalk got confused, and so you can understand Wendell said making this mistake. No, it was like he was you know just and the fan was yapping and then there was this kerfuffle but we don't always have like as perfect a replay the

the guys and always necessarily like right by the field mic so what is the the proper sequence here like what ought to because right now like the umpire decides you've been bounced and like you're just bounced there's no yeah you can't appeal that to new york you can't be like hey i'd like to use one of my challenges to stick in the dugout yeah and look i don't wanna i don't want to say that it doesn't matter whether the manager is in the dugout or not but i also think that the reason this is a problem is less about the tactical impact it necessarily had on the Yankees on that day and more about, you know, how we shouldn't have arbitrary exercises of power by people in positions of authority, right? Like, I don't think that

the Yankees can point to that and say, well, because Booney wasn't in the dugout, we lost the game. You know, it's like, I don't know. I think Mason Miller had something to say about that at the end. But yeah, I think. OK, so first of all, what Boone was upset about earlier was whether Ruiz had swung at the pitch that hit him, I think. And so maybe Wendell said it's primed for Boone to be saying something else. But what he said after the game, so he says, well, first of all, you can hear him say, I don't care who said it, you're gone, right?

After Boone says that he didn't say anything and Wendell says, I don't care who said it. Well, it is pretty relevant who said it. It is very relevant. said it it is it is very relevant it is in fact the most relevant thing when determining who to eject and and whether to eject someone right because if boone if part of the the punishment here is understood to be justified from wendell's dad's perspective on this being an escalation right that he had told boone hey knock it off and then Boone didn't listen well whether or not it's Boone matters a lot because otherwise it's just like it could be someone else in the dugout getting frustrated I mean it seems like later in the game a lot of people were frustrated because his own

wasn't very good either but that's either here or there yeah what he said after the game I know what Aaron was saying that it was a fan above the dugout. That's fine and dandy. There were plenty of fans that were yelling at me before I called a pitch until the end of the game. But Aaron Boone is the manager of the New York Yankees and is responsible for everything that happens in that dugout. But it wasn't in the dugout. This didn't happen in the dugout. So that seems irrelevant.

Then he says, this isn't my first ejection in the entirety of my career. I've never ejected a player or a manager for something a fan has said. Well, now you have. But you did. The thing is, but you did. You just did it. I understand that's going to be part of the story or something like that, because that's what Aaron was portraying. I heard something come from the far end of the dugout, had nothing to do with his area, but he's the manager of the Yankees, so he's the one that had to go. Now, I guess you could say, okay, if there was someone else in the dugout who was jawing, then I guess you could say, like, it's Boone's responsibility and you could hold him responsible. Again, like, this was clearly not coming from the dugout.

Wendelstedt is seemingly pretending that something else was said in the dugout. Yeah. I mean, he says, in my opinion, the cheap shot came towards the far end. So instead of me being aggressive and walking down to the far end and trying to figure out who might have said it, I don't want to eject a ball player. We need to keep them in the game. That's what the fans pay to see. Aaron Boone runs the Yankees. He got ejected. So I guess it's not impossible that someone else said something down the far end of the dugout at the same time that the fan was very clearly saying something. But based on the video and audio evidence, it certainly seems likely, if not certain,

that Wendelstedt was actually responding to the fan saying something here. So to pretend, and I don't know at that point whether Wendelstedt knew that this incriminating footage existed. Maybe he thought he could just kind of BS his way through this and no one would really be able to contradict it because it would just be a he said, he said thing.

Whereas we know it's a, he said, he didn't say anything case. And we know that because of this angle, which we just so happen to have. So maybe he wasn't aware that it would be so obvious that he's trying to sell us a bill of goods here. But I think it's pretty clear that that's what happened. It's the fan in the blue shirt who was wearing a different colored shirt, I think, later in the game. I don't know if he was trying to stay incognito or what. But yeah, this doesn't happen often, obviously.

And usually it would probably be pretty hard to mistake. I mean, that guy was right by Boone. Maybe typically you don't get really loud, active hecklers in the front row. I don't know. Maybe. Or it's just too loud to hear them because this game was was this game in oakland no i think it was in new york but it was very early it was an early day start yeah um so i don't know how well attended uh yeah it was um that might have had something to do with it, yeah.

Yeah, it can be pretty, I guess, you know, the announced attendance at least was 30,000, but who knows if that many people were actually there. And it can be sort of sparse in those expensive seats at Yankee Stadium too, on the other side of the moat that they have there. So it was probably just extra audible and it was just kind of an unlikely confluence of events. But yeah, come on, just own up to it. We all saw it. But umpires, they don't like to do that, many of them. They don't like to admit that they were wrong. And to some extent, I understand that because they just get berated so much even when they aren't wrong, when they're in the right, and they're just so used to that, it just kind of hardens their exterior, I think, and they have to maintain some authority, right? Because if they just caved every time someone said you did something wrong, like, that would be bad, too.

You know, people would walk all over them. The players, the coaches, the managers would take advantage of that. Plus, they probably have the feeling that the robots, the computers are coming for our jobs. Each advancement of technology just exposes our fallibility as in this very replay of Wendelstead and Boone. And so we can't give any extra ammunition to the people who already want us phased out. But when you do really get one wrong, I think everyone appreciates when you own up to it. As umpires do on occasion, they will say, I missed that one. And I think we all understand. We all make mistakes. Even if you're mad in the moment, if they own up to it later, fine, we'll let Bicons be Bicons. But not if you're going to

try to pretend that something happened that didn't. And again, I don't really know what the recourse is in the moment. Like, do you open ejections up to review from New York? If you're a team, do you want to spend a challenge that way? You know what I mean? Like, I don't know that there is a better way to deal with it other than to, you know, use this as a training opportunity for other umpires to say, like, you need to be sure. And you could, in theory, consult other umps. You know, there's all kinds of stuff that you could do to try to navigate something like

this. But yeah, it wasn't great. I mean, it was funny. It was great. It was funny. It was tremendous content, yeah. But I don't, you know, I think that, again, when you have someone who has as much authority on the field as the home plate umpire does, like, you want that person to ideally not make mistakes like this. make mistakes like this and then if those mistakes are made to own up to them it being boone did make it funny because he is you know it's more surprising when he doesn't get ejected from a game candidly than when he does um so it's funny you know it's funny it's funny yeah it'd be tough to have it subject to review because you're not always going to get crystal clear evidence like this. Right. This is my point. Like, what's the recourse in the moment? Like, umps are mic'd up now more often, I guess, because they make those in-game announcements.

And so, depending on the ump, at least the crew chief is going to have a mic, but then you might not catch heckling that's going on from the dugout, right? And so, ultimately, it is kind of the umpire's word when it comes to those things. So it would be tough to just provide clear-cut evidence like we have in this case. It does make me think of previous examples that we've talked about, like does it actually help teams to berate umpires because they will get better calls consciously or unconsciously. Those calls will go in their favor more often the rest of the game. We talked about that as a hypothetical, and then there was a study that seemed to suggest, in fact, that's the case.

I guess the downside is that it becomes kind of a boy who cried wolf situation where you're tagged with something you didn't actually say. You could get ejected at times when you didn't deserve it. And then I wonder also, I'm surprised we haven't gotten this email already. Does it make sense for opponents to pack the front row of the ballpark with loudly heckling fans to try to induce an ejection, right? You just, you plant, you have a plant in the front row, guy in the blue shirt who's just yelling as loud as possible and making it seem like it's coming from your opponent's dugout. And then those guys get in trouble

unless maybe that backfires because as we were just saying, like if theubb thinks that the bench is really riding him, then might consciously or unconsciously give them better calls. But then again, you might sort of like, you know, trap them into an unjust ejection. So I guess there's all sorts of gamesmanship to consider here. They should have a plant there who is trying to get the manager ejected. And they should have a series of plants that yell Bach every time the pitcher delivers a pitch. Because if we think that they can influence the umpire, no one knows where a Bach is.

They should do that too. This is an extension of my my bach theory i mean people know what a bach is but i'm just saying it's like a complicated rule and people get confused and if i were a fan and i had faith that i could influence the behavior of the umpire i would just yell bach every time i would just be like it's a bach it's a bach it's bach because eventually the ump back there is going to be like it was a bach was that a buck? Have I been missing bucks this whole time? And I think that umpires, in general, do a very good job at a very hard job. It's very hard. I saw some people on Twitter responding to this whole thing going, robot umps now. And I was like, how would that have changed

anything about this situation? There's still going to be a person back there. Even if we get a fully automated zone, which as we have said many times on this podcast is the official position of effectively wild the challenge system now but no full automated balls and strikes but even if we were to go to a full auto zone you'd still have a home plate umpire and that person would still be the person imbued with the power to eject folks or not that that wouldn't change you're not gonna have it's not gonna be what's your name on the jetsons rosie is it rosie yes it's not gonna be rosie back there although as i have admitted before that was what i thought for a long time when before like robots umpire and i was like that's gonna make home plate collisions really dangerous because it's just

gonna be this big metal thing back there and what happens if it doesn't get out of the way in time i was like this is not a project for ai ai cannot discern the like complex social scenario that determines too much you must go now and watch the rest of the game from the clubhouse that a human person needs to do that and we should have a human person who can, I don't want to say that umpires have to like take a little bit of punishment because I do think that sometimes, you know, players and managers, they go too far and we root against umpires as fans. And so we're always on their side and sometimes they can be wrong. And sometimes they can act like twerps because they're humans but you know i don't want them to get too much of the business but i think that you have to be in a position to be a

nerd to the business a little bit you know you got to be like i can handle that business because i'm in charge i have power in this moment like i i and, and you, you might have to go sit in a different room at work because of my power. So I can handle, handle some of the business, should be able to take some of the business. Like it really should be a last resort. And if you don't take, if you don't handle the business and then you make a mistake, you got to say, I made a mistake. That wasn't the right thing. Cause I have all this power, you know, know, like they think of themselves as TSA agents sometimes and they're not. They have a lot more power than that. Well, I mentioned umpiring scandals on multiple continents.

It's funny that you mention RoboZone's ABS because that's what they're using in the KBO, Korea's major leagues. And they have a scandal involving the RoboZone. So I'm reading here from Korea. Are they gambling? Joong-Ang Daily. No, at least not that we know of. So Dino's starter Lee Jae-hok throws a fastball over the outside of the plate. Samsung's Lee Jae-hyun doesn't swing, and home plate umpire Moon Sung-hoon calls a ball.

doesn't swing and home plate umpire Moon Sung Hoon calls a ball. The inning continues after that call and the Dinos, Lee Jae-hak, picks up two more balls and a strike before Dinos manager Kang In-kwan comes onto the field protesting Moon's ball call from the fastball three pitches prior, saying the robot ump had flagged it as a strike. Okay. The robot ump had flagged it as a strike. Okay. So the robo ump had called it a strike, but the umpire called it a ball for some reason.

It says, why did the challenge take so long? Why did a few pitches go by? ABS calls are made available to both the umpires and the dugout, but not at the same time. The ABS delivers calls directly to umpires through an earpiece while coaches and players in the dugout get the results on a tablet. But there's a slight delay between when the umpire gets the ABS call through their earpiece, supposedly immediately after the pitch, and when the results reach the tablet screen in the dugout. The delay is apparently because the tablets run on stadium Wi-Fi, which can run extremely slowly when there are tens of thousands of bodies

in the stadium. So apparently the delay can be anywhere between 20 seconds and a minute. 20 seconds? A minute? Yeah. Oh, that is far too long. That is far too long. Yes.

So three pitches go by before the manager comes out and says, actually, that was a strike because they just found out that it was a strike. They don't have a separate router for- I know, you'd think, right? Yes, I would think. Moon, the umpire, gathers with the crew chief and the third base umpire to discuss the call, and the Dinos coaches are waiting off to the side, and this umpire conversation, unbeknownst to the umpires, was picked up by a mic used on the broadcast.

So we have a hot mic, another commonality here. Moments later, the umps announced to the ballpark that Moon's call marking the earlier pitch a ball would stand, even as they acknowledged it should have been a strike. So the crew chief, Lee Min Ho, announces over the stadium PA system, on the second pitch, the home plate umpire heard the ball call. But after reviewing the ABS monitor, we saw that the pitch was actually a strike. The Dinos appealed, but as a rule, the challenge has to be made before the next pitch is thrown. Based on that rule, the original call stands. Now, that rule doesn't work very well because they can't very well challenge before the next pitch is thrown if

they haven't seen the results until three more pitches go by. So that's one problem. But the crew chief is claiming that even though the RoboZone ruled this a strike, the umpire heard a ball through his earpiece. Okay. So it might've ended there, but it didn't end there because of the hot mics, which revealed that the crew chief was lying when he made that announcement over the PA. So the article continues, while the conversation from the umpire's huddle before the PA announcement was drowned out by the noise in the ballpark,

clips of what they said were broadcast to audiences watching the game from home. Quote, we should tell people you heard ball. Got it? That is the only way for us to get out of this, Lee Minho was heard telling Moon. After Moon agreed, Lee Minho doubled down. You have to say it was ball, not it sounded like a ball, if we don't want to get hammered for this. But it wasn't ball. The KBO has since confirmed that the call was strike. It was always strike, and the error was entirely on Moon.

So it's not known, or at least it wasn't when this article was written, why the umpire called ball, even though the system said strike, whether he misheard it, whether he just jumped the gun or something, whether he lost focus and zoned out and just had to make it up or what. But he went off script for that pitch, contradicted the ABS system, and then Lee Min Ho was trying to blame the system rather than admitting that it was the umpire's mistake. So this is a big issue because the people watching at home knew what was happening. The reckoning comes as details of the whole story became clear. The KBO immediately suspended the umpires, the three umpires after a meeting chaired by the commissioner. Further punishment for the trio will be decided at a later date. The league also announced that effective immediately, an ABS official present at every game will be allowed to intervene if any confusion arises

during the transmission of a call to the home plate umpire's earpiece. The KBO also said it will provide all 10 teams with new devices that will allow the dugout to receive ABS calls in real time. Well, that's good. Theoretically allowing for challenges to be made before the next pitch is thrown.

So another example of umpires refusing to admit that they made a mistake, getting caught, and getting in trouble, at least in this case. And in this case, having some real reform. So, you know, improving the way that the calls are communicated to the teams and also having this ABS official who's on hand and can intervene if for some reason

the umpire goes off script again. But, you know, this is a weird case, but it's similar in the sense that umpires, man,

like they just do not like to admit, you know, they don't like to show themselves up, I guess, man, like they just do not like to admit, you know, they don't like to show themselves up, I guess, but ultimately what they do makes them look far worse than just copping to screwing up. I'm sympathetic to the notion that like you never want to, it's not a pleasant experience to realize like I made a mistake and now I have to say, I made a mistake. And it like affected, I made a mistake and it like affected you know

depending on the nature of the missed call might have like profound implications for the course of the game and who wins right so I can appreciate the reluctance particularly when I'm sure that no matter what these guys say in the aftermath of something like that they're gonna again get the business but I think you're just you have to it has to be part of your job that you say, I messed this up and I will endeavor to do better next time. And also buy individual routers for the team so that they don't have to depend on what? Like, yeah. When you have technology that is assisting with how a game is called it does increase our expectations of the accuracy of that game right and so there is sort of this uncomfortable push and pull when you get that stuff wrong because it's like well we have the

we have abs like we shouldn't we shouldn't be having these problems and it's like well no you're still gonna have problems you still need to have mechanisms to address those problems. And, you know, if there's a goof with a full ABS, it's not your fault. It's not your fault. This is ABS. It's not your fault. So like, oh, boy. Yeah, well, in this case, it was his fault.

It was his fault. Yeah. It's entirely his fault. Umps, just own up to your mistakes if you make them. Try to make as few as possible. But if you make them, just cop to it. It's okay. Some people at least will forgive you.

I think that a lot of people will forgive you. It's a very hard job, you know? Yeah. It's a very hard job. And I think that, again, you're in a bit, you're in a ballpark, there's people around, you know, maybe you did goof it up. So just say, I goofed it up, man. I'm sorry. Do better next time.

All right. A few more things. I saw someone use the term a groupmatics. You know a matics, which is a... No, no, no. Reject, reject, reject that. I reject that. A matics, the popular term for a complete game shutout,

fewer than 100 pitches, right? And we have combined no-hitters. We can't have a group Maddox. We could, in theory, have a combined perfect game. Hasn't happened yet, although it was one of our bold preseason predictions this year. But Matt Sussman at Baseball Perspectives, love Matt, but

he, in his Beyond the Box score recap the other day, noted that the Nationals, when they beat the Astros, Mitchell Parker, Dylan Floro, and Matt Barnes combined to throw 98 pitches in a 6-0 shutout of Houston, which Matt termed a group Maddox. So if we have a combined no-hitter, why can't we have a combined Maddox? So glad that you asked. And I also enjoy Matt's work, so I'm not trying to pick on Matt. But my visceral reaction to this is largely rooted in the fact that it is named after a person. It is named after an individual singular person doing a thing that this individual singular person did and was known for.

And you cannot distribute those winnings over a group. That is an individual pursuit. And no, no, I feel very strongly. Yeah, you make a fine point there. Yeah, I mean, the combined no-hitter is less impressive just because, like, you know, if you're working through the lineup three, four times, I mean, you're getting gassed, you're feeling fatigued, you've got the times-through-the-order effect, and you got through it and get the no-hitter anyway, that is more impressive than if you have a few different pitchers and less times-through-the-order effect, etc. It's still worthy of some sort of recognition, and it's okay to call it a combined no-hitter. And so I was

struggling with why I just reflexively rejected this, but I think you're right. I think it might be just because it's named after one guy. It can't be a group accomplishment. I also just think that part of what we're trying to acknowledge in identifying it is as a special kind of shutout is the difficulty of going the distance in very few pitches, right? Like it says something about the way that you are conducting yourself and going about your business as the starter that makes it sitting with one person important, right? Because you could have, I don't know, you could have like a bullpen day and you probably wouldn't have fewer than a hundred pitches, but like you could space it out over a bunch of really good bullpen arms, but you're trying to convey this incredible mix of both efficiency and longevity. And that's hard to do,

right? And so I think you need that to be concentrated in one guy. It needs to be a one guy kind of a thing. You can still note it as like a cool and impressive accomplishment because it is. It's still cool and impressive if a staff combines to shut out an opposing team and in very few pitches. But Ben, it's not quite as impressive as one guy doing it. So we need to have a special way of referring to the one guy. Yeah. I feel very strongly. I am surprised by how strongly I feel, in fact, but it is, I feel quite strongly. All right. We're going to nip that one in the bud. We're rejecting the group or combined Maddox. Good to know. Okay. On episode 2140, I talked about the fact that Shohei Otani's odds of winning the NL MVP were higher than I thought they would be or maybe that they should be. I think he had like the third or tied for the third highest odds according to some sports book or another. And I was thinking really just as a DH only, are his chances really that good? Well, thus far, by Fangraff's war, he is—

Which you shouldn't look at until May. No, as we've already established. Never look at it. However, I just did. And he trails only his two-mate Mookie Betts in the National League. It's just Mookie and Otani. Mookie at 2.0, Otani at 1.5. and Juan Soto and Jose Altuve are in there too. Altuve's been fantastic despite how bad the Astros have been.

And there are other guys in that range, but it's Mookie and it's Otani, 1-2. And then you have to go down to like number 11 in the majors until you get to Willie Adamas, who is at 1.2. He's third in the NL or tied roughly with Quetel Marte. So he's doing it just as a DH. I mean, there's no way he would win over Mookie if the season ended right now. But he's now up to a 199 WRC+. He's hitting 368, 431, 663. He, of course, hit the Hideki Matsui record-breaking Japanese-born player MLB home run record with his 176th in the

majors, but he's having, thus far far his hottest start, his best offensive season, despite all the off the field stuff swirling around him. So yeah, maybe that was kind of a good call. Maybe it actually is realistic for him to finish high, at least in that voting, despite being a DH only. I also think that, you know, people are going to look to what happened with, you know, everything that happened with the happened with Ipe and this burgeoning scandal and the realization that Otani was a victim of fraud and betrayal. And I'm sure that that will be part of the narrative of his season, especially if he continues to hit the way that he is. And this idea of overcoming that and having to navigate that as you're getting your feet under you with

a new team. Now, Mookie has the position change, right? He's going to be able to point to that. And, you know, I want to say, Cattell's having a hell of a start. Cattell's having a hell of a start. But I think it will be much more of a conversation if things kind of progress as they are than either of us anticipated. I do suspect that if things are very close, you know, if we end the year with a situation similar to what we had last year, where, you know, Betts and Acuna were basically tied from a war perspective, that people, voters will probably look to Mookie having made the position change, playing in the field, and, you know, this being sort of an opportunity to vote for someone other than otani

in a year when he isn't pitching and that mookie would probably still come out ahead but i think otani is going to make it much more of a of a contest than we maybe initially anticipated so good for him and that's pretty cool yeah unless he gets like a late season narrative boost because either he i don't know appears in relief or something at the end of the season in the playoffs or maybe picks up a glove and starts playing in the field regularly or something. Oh, sure. Yeah. I guess. But barring that, yeah, I think it would be tough. The Dodgers, despite having perhaps the two most valuable players in the league thus far, just barely ahead of the Padres, just almost neck and neck. I mean, it's been sort of a slowish start for the Dodgers,

not a concerning one or anything, but they've had their fair share of injuries, pitching injuries, and their pitching war is in the bottom half of the league as well. But the Dodgers, they'll get going, I'm sure. But maybe that will turn out to be a bit of a race in the NOS. That would be nice. Padres are making it interesting thus far. Yeah.

It's another kind of frisky division. I like it. And also off to a slow start. I guess that's the theme of this episode. Just hitters in general, offense is down. I don't know how much to make of this. It's, you know, I don't want to like start a ball frenzy again. Right?

Like it's a little, it's noteworthy. I'm noting it. I think it's worthy of being noted, but it's not that extreme. So as we speak here, heading into Tuesday's games, majors offensive slash line 240, 315, 382. It depends if you compare it to last year or to prior years. So like if we look at through the same date last year, through April 22nd last year compared to through April 22nd this year, batting average down from 246 to 240,

OBP down from 321 to 315, slugging percentage down from 402 to 382. So overall OPS down from 723 to 697. It's not nothing and BABIP is down seven points, and also home runs on contact are down pretty significantly. So if you look at home runs per fly ball, it's down from 12% of fly balls being homers last year through this point. It's 10.5% this year. It's 10.5% this year. Or if you look at home runs on contact, a stat I prefer, which is just home runs over at bats minus strikeouts, it was like 4.46 last year. And this year it's 3.92. These sound like small differences and they are, but those are fairly meaningful at small

differences. So compared to last year, offense is down. And there was a thread the other day by the Twitter account BallparkPal that went over this and presented a bunch of evidence, basically like looking at distance traveled versus expected and taking into account exit speed and launch angle and direction and park and weather and all these different factors. And it seems like the ball is not carrying as well as it did last year. It seems like it's carrying more like 2022, which was the year when MLB sent the memo around that they were deadening the ball and they did and home runs were down and then they kind of bounced back last year. So this offense this year, it's kind of like in between 2021, 2022, which were shortened

spring training years, right? And so it was hard to figure that out. It seemed like hitters were just kind of extra behind that year. So it's kind of between those years, especially like 2022, the ball in particular wasn't really carrying. And in 2021, offense was down for other reasons. And last year where early season offense was pretty robust. So I don't know how much to make of it really. Like the effect seems to persist even if you do account for weather and other factors. It was cold. Yeah.

But, I mean, not here. It's like 95 today. Well, sure. It's not like we've gone all the way back to, like, pre-juiced ball. And I think just in general, like, we've kind of almost lost perspective on what a normal home run rate is. Yes, 100%. Because even in 2022, when people were like, oh, it's the dead ball era again. Not really.

Historically speaking, it was still a high home run rate and high home run on contact rate. It was just that our sense, our calibration was skewed by like 2017, 2019, right? Like the peak home run rate years. So where we are now, it's down from last year, and I don't know why exactly. And so it could be ball-related, but it's not at like a really unhealthy level necessarily. The strikeout rate is actually down a bit. Like they do seem to have gotten the strikeouts under control a little bit.

It has not been climbing a lot in recent years or at all. So that's kind of good news. But yeah, the results on contact have not been so strong this spring. So it's something to keep an eye on. And there's just so much like baseball-related paranoia, you know? It's like, oh, here we go again. And it's not that dramatic a drop, so I don't want to like start a panic or anything.

It's not like full-on scandal. They definitely did something to the ball, but it's worth, you know, keeping an eye on and seeing how it develops and why things are happening this way. Yeah, I think that just because the environment that the league has created is one in which we are not confident we really know why these things happen year to year. And we're not always sure what the sort of character and disposition of the ball is going to be in any given season. You know, we do need to keep an eye on these things. It doesn't mean that we know kind of what it's all going to look like when it's all said and done or certainly why it looks the way it does right now, but definitely worth keeping an eye on because, you know, there's some precedent for there having been, if not like a purposeful shift in the ball in service of a specific offensive environment, then sometimes these things move around and they seem to have a hard time telling us why or that they actually did.

One other follow-up, we have talked a lot about teams' attempts to extract funding for ballpark projects and that that's still going on, going on in St. Louis now. I don't know what leverage the Cardinals have to extract public funding for Bush upgrades because, you know, are the Cardinals really going to move or have any kind of credible threat to move? Doesn't seem like it. But there is one outlier, and that's the Blue Jays. And I'm not going to say it's out of the goodness of their hearts or anything. It's just that they kind of can't get away with it up there the way that teams try to and often do get away with it here.

So there was a good article recently at the Globe and Mail about how the Blue Jays are paying for their own renovations to Rogers Center. how the Blue Jays are paying for their own renovations to Rogers Center. And Mark Shapiro, the Jays president, was kind of singing their own praises a little bit, tooting their own horn, saying, every single one of our competitors throughout Major League Baseball would have been supported with a public-private partnership. This undertaking was completely privately financed. So it's a $400 million renovation of the Rogers Center, which has been ongoing but has entered a new phase here. And so the Globe and Mail reporter

asks him why they didn't try to go down that path of trying to get money from the public. And it says, I was about to add that it was ultimately sold to Rogers for 4% of the $500 million cost, but Shapiro interjected, that was 35 years ago. He said, there's not a modern precedent for it. It was not even a discussion. Now, I'm sure that if Shapiro were still with a stateside team, he would have done the same thing that all of the teams in the U.S. do. thing that all of the teams in the U.S. do. But because there isn't, I guess, a recent precedent of this being done or this working in Canada or in Ontario, I don't know if it applies to the entire country. He's just like, oh yeah, it didn't cross our minds. It wouldn't have worked. It all just depends on whether you can get away with it or whether teams perceive that they can get away

with it. Because Rodgers and the Blue Jays, okay, they didn't think it would happen. And so they didn't try, you know, they didn't do the whole song and dance. They didn't do the, oh, we might move, right? Oh, Nashville's Portland, sure looking nice over there. You know, they didn't put the public through that. There wasn't a referendum. There wasn't any like legislative shenanigan going on, right? And again, not because like they're just such pillars of the community and they just felt that it was their responsibility. You know, like if they could have gotten away with it,

I'm sure they would have tried. Yeah. So it's really, I guess, kind of incumbent on the localities to hold the line and be like, no, we're not. Because if they do, teams will pay for it, you know? It's not that they can't. Or they move to Utah, but. Right. Yeah, I guess.

And I saw the Diamondbacks put a statement out about the Coyotes moving, right? They sure did. Yeah, they were like, oh, gee, we hate to lose a team, which, you know, seemed like maybe there was some subtext there, possibly, like, continuing their, we're not threatening anything, but also, you know. It's a nice reigning pennant holder you have here.

It would be a shame if anything happened to it. Right. So, it just entirely depends. Like, if they can't get away with it, they will, I think, ultimately pony up for the most part and foot the bill. Not in all cases necessarily, but I think in a lot of cases. often it works, they will do that. And they'll try to do it three different ways before they finally pay up, if ever. But it just totally depends on the conditions in the area and whether they can get away with it. I think much more so than whether the team is upstanding citizens or something. That isn't to say that there might not be instances where an owner demonstrates some sort of moral clarity around this stuff but i think the the safer assumption for fans and voters in these instances

is to to say that you need to set the agenda and demonstrate that you're not willing to pump public money into these into these ballparks and you know you should do so with the understanding that sometimes they will they will leave or at least they'll leave for a little while. I don't want to talk about the Coyotes situation. It's completely impossible that there might be an NHL team in the Valley again, but sometimes they do go. But that doesn't mean that you should cave and give money to very wealthy people when you could be spending it on other stuff that's probably more pressing within your community. So assume that if they can get free money for their ballparks and stadiums

that they're going to try to do that. And then maybe you'll be pleasantly surprised and they'll be like, no, we're just going to build it. You know, could happen, but you should act like it's not going to because it probably won't. Yeah. And also on a recent email show,

we answered a question about Tommy John surgeries in Japan and whether they're on the rise and what the rates are. And I lamented that we didn't have great data on that, that it seemed like they were less common there. And yet we didn't quite have

the same detail that we do for MLB pitchers. Well, Jim Allen, the journalist in Japan who's been covering NPP for decades, just shortly after we recorded that episode on his site, posted some research that he did where he tried to determine the numbers here, the rates, because he was also frustrated about the lack of availability of those numbers. So he went through the active pitchers for the first week of the NPB season. So we know that something like 37% of MLB pitchers last season had had Tommy John surgery

at some point. And so the comparable rate here in Japan, it does seem dramatically lower. Jim went through the rosters, the active pitchers for the first week of the season, he says, and counted 143 pitchers whose pro careers essentially started in Japan. Of these, 12 have published reports of Tommy John surgery. Four of the 57 starting pitchers have undergone TJs and four of the 86 relievers. Overall, the percentage in Japan is 8.4%, 14% for starters and 4.7% for relievers. Two of the starters had their procedures done while they were still in

university. On top of that, three former university pitchers had Tommy Johns this spring, two before they ever pitched an official game. So that would suggest that the rate is something like four times lower. I guess he's going off published reports, so it's possible that the TJs are just less likely to be reported there. But unless that's a source of bias or a confounding factor there, But unless that's a source of bias or a confounding factor there, that does back up the impression at least that the rates have been a lot lower there. Interesting.

Yeah. So that's interesting. And he quotes a doctor who has performed a lot of the Tommy John surgeries in Japan, Dr. Kozo Furushima, who said that surgeries on Japanese college pitchers are increasing rapidly, but I guess there's good news elsewhere. So Dr. Furushima says, in Japan for several years now, we've been conducting screenings from a young age and providing training for coaches as well as introducing pitch count limits to address baseball injuries. As a result, the incidence of Tommy John surgery during youth has decreased. Currently, it's college students

who are most frequently affected. However, the numbers are lower than they were a decade ago in Japan. I believe that the incidence in NPB has significantly reduced compared to before. And Jim Allen says, indeed, 10 years ago, there were at least two active NPB pitchers

with multiple Tommy John procedures. Currently, there are none. So it seems like the news is mostly positive over there, even though the velocities in NPB have been increasing. It seems like maybe they have done a better job kind of corralling the workloads of young pitchers, which has been a big issue over there in the past. And so he says, Jim says, if Dr. Fershima is correct about the increasing scarcity of elbow injuries in MPB, that's probably due to decreasing pitch counts. We may soon be facing the same trouble MLB is now dealing with

as velocities here follow suit. So maybe they're just lagging behind the increase that we've seen, but it certainly does seem like it's been lower there, whether because of different mechanics, just different velocities, fewer fastballs, you know, kind of a breaking ball off-speed heavier league, although MLB is pretty darn off-speed heavy these days too. Yeah, these days, yeah.

Yeah. So just wanted to follow up because we got a little better data there than we had when we answered that question. Very interesting. That'll do it for today. Thanks, as always, for listening. Yet another loss for the Astros after we recorded a walk-off win for the Twins. One quick correction on the stat blast last time

when we were talking about consecutive outs on the bases. I believe Ryan misspoke and said the Orioles were picked off three times in a single inning. It was the other way around. It was the Blue Jays being picked off by the Orioles. And Baltimore lefty Tippy Martinez, August 24th, 1983. Throw to first, they got the runner hung up between first and second. Murray chases him down and now puts on the tag. Well, that's the ideal way to do it.

One out, a runner at first. Another thrower to first, they got him! They got him! Another thrower to first, and they got him! Holy cow Oh my goodness Oh ho They pick up three

I can't believe it They did it again Martinez to Murray once Martinez to Murray twice Martinez to Murray three times. access to some perks. Rob DeFranco, Bart Snyder, Justice Wreath, Ian Usher, and Samuel Derrick. Thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include access to the Effectively Wild Discord group for patrons only, monthly bonus

episodes, discounts on merch and ad-free fangraphs memberships, and prioritized email answers, so much more. Check out all the offerings at patreon.com slash effectively wild. If you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can still contact us via email. Send your questions and comments and intro and outro themes to Thank you. You can follow Effectively Wild on Twitter at EWPod, and you can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at r slash Effectively Wild. The Effectively Wild listener meetup at Dodger Stadium happened recently and seemed to go great.

If you want to get in on one of the remaining 26 meetups at MLB ballparks this season, check the last links on the show page or in the episode description in your podcast app. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We will be back with another episode a little later this week. Talk to you then. Find out on Effectively Wild Today Today Today