Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2201: The Jackson Three

Episode Date: August 9, 2024

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the White Sox and the etiquette and timing of firing the manager of one of the worst teams of all time, Logan O’Hoppe and performance anxiety, Brusdar Graterol and the most demoralizing kind of injury, the return of Anthony Gose, next season’s scheduled game at Bristol Motor Speedway, […]

Hello, everyone. A fan, a fan to the world. A fan, a fan to the world. A fan, a fan to the world. A fan, a fan to the world. A fan, a fan to the world. Hello and welcome to episode 2201 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from FanGraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of The Ringer, joined by Meg Raleigh of FanGraphs. Hello Meg. Hello. So what do you think is the etiquette of firing a manager and multiple members of your coaching staff amid a historically long

losing streak? What's the right time to pull the trigger? Because the White Sox decided to do it after snapping the streak, but not immediately after. Right. Not the day that they finally won one, but the day after that, after they had lost one after the win. So they must have been weighing when and whether to do this for a long time, one would think. And it probably wasn't the 21st consecutive loss that

pushed them over the edge. Probably they were leaning toward doing this before then. So do you think they were thinking, well, we got to wait until the streak is snapped. We don't want to saddle the replacement manager with this ongoing streak, but then maybe you don't want to fire everyone the day after they finally snapped the streak. Then it's like you're firing them for finally winning one, right? So maybe you've got to wait for them then to lose another. Maybe I'm overthinking this and it's just coincidence, but I'm just thinking Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Getz, whoever made this decision, how do you decide when to do it? Because they could have done this at any point in the past multiple months. It's been clear that the White Sox are truly terrible for quite a while now.

That's such a good question. I mean, I think you don't want there to be a gap between when you fire the one manager and you're ready to name an interim manager. And that's what they did. They parted ways with Pedro Grafol. And they'd also fired bench coach Charlie Montoya and third base coach Eddie Rodriguez and assistant hitting coach Mike Tosar. So yeah, yeah, it was a partial house cleaning. They cleaned a few rooms of the house, not the whole house at once.

Yeah. So I imagine that part of it was getting sized more sort of sized up. Cause if you're hiring the manager, your initial reaction is like, Oh, I guess the bench coach is going to be the interim. And they were like, no, we don't, we don't want that. And then you're like, well, maybe the third base coach and no, not him either. So I think part of it is probably,

let's be sure that we can announce who's gonna try to write the ship, at least on an interim basis before we get rid of him. But yeah, it's, I don't know, man, it's tricky. Like on the one hand, you're right. You don't want it to come like immediately after you've managed to snap the skid because then it feels- CB 0530 You're punishing them for finally winning.

LSF Because winning is sort of the whole thing. I mean, honestly, I should have just let him go after he said he wasn't going to look at the eclipse because it's like, come on, dude, like where are your priorities? And like now does he want to go back in time and change that decision? Should have engaged with this incredible celestial event, buddy. Like you're already out of it. The season's not even over. Should have just stared directly at the eclipse so that she could have witnessed less of this

White Sox season. No, I'm not saying, don't say. Oh, terrible, terrible. But so you don't want to do it right after the win, but then you do kind of end up with this strange thing where you as a person on the staff maybe feel like there's been a reprieve, right? You're going to make it to the end of the season. Now, they obviously know a lot more internally than we did, so maybe this was an unremarkable bit of timing from their perspective, but I don't know.

On the one hand, it's an easy bit of change to make, right? Clearly things are not going well with the White Sox and you have to make change and it's easier to, you know, got part of your coaching staff than it is to like completely revamp your roster, which is what they really are going to need to do to, you know, return to prominence. And they probably don't, I don't have a great sense of like how much, if any, jeopardy gets us in. It seems like it would be odd to move on now because you gave him this vote of confidence, you've let him do trades or not do trades as the case may be.

And clearly this is a big enough turnaround that it's going to take time to architect, even if we might have notes on how it's gone so far. So this is like an easy thing to do, but yeah, it's like weird to do on a Thursday after you've broken the streak. But you can't do it in the middle of the street because then it's like, you know, they're panicking, they're flailing, they're completely rudderless. So I guess maybe this is the best of a bunch of bad options, but boy, doesn't it feel like they only have bad options?

Yeah. I think they handled this about as well as they could, which is not something I've said about the White Sox much this season. They could have fired Grafol at any point really, but yes, I think you got to wait for the streak to conclude. I thought you could say, well, maybe you make a change mid streak and then the new guy gets to be the hero who ends the streak, gets a little boost there. Do you want to saddle the new guy?

You want to saddle an icon like Grady Sizemore with that responsibility. Like that's, you know, because the thing about it is if they had, if they had fired them in the midst of the streak, how many games in a row do you get to before you're like, we got to make a change? Is it 11, 12, you know, maybe 13, 14, but then it just continued for a while. It got its first drink at a bar, you know? And then like, what do you do? Like you've already made the change and now you just have to eat it. I mean, I guess you have to eat it either way, so who knows? So they win one and then you wait to make sure that they're not going to just reel off

21 wins in a row because you wouldn't want to make a change at that point. So once they lose again, after snapping the streak, then you say, okay, now the slate is clean and we can bring someone else in here. Do you think there was even one person in the front office of the Chicago White Sox that was like, I don't know, we better make sure they're not about to go on a 21 game win streak. Do you think that that thought occurred to anyone in that front office for even like a minute, for even 30 seconds? I don't think it did for even one person. No, no optimistic young person, not yet disappointed by the ways of the world was like, I don't know, maybe we'll rattle off a big win. No single person did that. I refuse to believe.

I would like to know this would make an interesting stat blast at some point, how often the last game managed by a manager before he's fired is a loss. How often it's a loss as opposed to a win. Cause there have been times when a manager will get fired after a win. And obviously you're making that decision, not based on the outcome of the most recent game. So you shouldn't really be beholden to, did they just win their last one or lose their last one? But there's something I think about, okay, that was the last straw or, you know,

they were just victorious. How can we strike them down in their moment of triumph? So I would guess that it's sort of disproportionately a loss in the last game, probably. So we or someone should look into that. At some point, I'd be curious what the breakdown is and whether it's representative of the winning or losing percentage of that team in that season as a whole. Because I guess most managers, they get fired because their team's not doing so hot. So probably they're going to be losing most of their games anyway, just not quite at the clips that the 2024 White Sox did. So good luck to Grady Sizemore and the new members of the Major League White Sox coaching staff and whoever ends up as the permanent manager of the White Sox going forward. You've got quite a job ahead of you. Yeah, boy do you. Yeah. By the way, I meant to mention when we were talking about Pedro Grafol,

he has the second worst winning percentage career for a manager. This was a stat I saw Josh Nelson of Sox Machine tweet, minimum 275 games managed. So with this season factored in, he's at 89 and 190. That's a 319 winning percentage, which is the worst other than John McCloskey, who managed for five seasons between 1895 and 1908 and went 190 and 417. That's a 313 winning percentage. So he's not the worst. I guess that's your saving grace but I don't know if he'll get another gig because again not just because the White Sox were bad but Because he didn't seem to cover himself in glory even independent of that. Although, you know when they hired him

He seemed like he was a fairly well-respected, celebrated pick, right? But I don't know if he'll get another shot or not, but you'd think that if you were Pedro Grafolio, you'd want to get another shot just so that you don't go out that way. That would be like if Clayton Kershaw had retired after getting shelled in the playoffs last year, right? Like you don't want to go out after having just lost 21 in a row. I know he then

won one to snap the streak, but still that's like a stain on your record that you probably want to erase, I think. And you know, if you have the second worst winning percentage of all time, then there's probably nowhere to go but up from that. Even if he were to sign on with another terrible team, probably wouldn't be like potentially the worst team of all time. It's so funny because it's like you don't want people to not get opportunities when they've been at least in part felled by circumstances outside of their control, right? He contributed to them having this record, right? In some way, I don't know how many wins he cost them, but

I'm sure, like, you can't be this bad of a team and be like, well, the manager was flawless. You know, like, there was no, there are no notes. Like, we know that to not be true. And there have been times where it's been like, hey, you seem like you can't motivate your guys because you're saying that this is all their fault, which isn't the super best. So it's like you want people to get opportunities and to be sensitive to the context, but then you also want to be like, but how much did you help them? So it's a hard, it's a hard thing to know what to do. But I, you know, he's not going to like wash out of baseball.

Like it takes a lot for guys to be completely done with the game. Actually takes a lot for, for these guys to not resurface. It doesn't mean that he'll get hired this off season to go manage another big league club, but I'd be surprised if he's completely done. So yeah. No, you can always go from managing to coaching at least, and then maybe have to work your way back up to the top job. So I saw this tweet from the Angels Wednesday. There was a big turnout at Yankee Stadium because the Angels were in town and Logan Ohapi plays for the Angels, excellent productive young catcher, and he's from Long Island and so he had a whole bunch of people come out to watch him play because Logan Ohapi's

dad, Michael, has been cancer-free for two years post stem cell transplant. Congrats to him. So Michael and his oncologist and and a girl who is battling leukemia was there and there was an event and 350 plus guests of Logan Ohapi were at this game at Yankee Same. It was a double header. I'm not sure if they were all at both games or what, but 350 plus guests. Sometimes I read about a lot of people coming to watch a ballplayer at a ballpark and I think I don't know that many people if I just, I don't think I could get 350 people I know

personally. Maybe he doesn't know them all personally. Maybe they're friends of the family. Maybe they're just admirers. I don't know, but I'd have a hard time just pulling that many people. I think if I had to just clean out my contacts and just say, Hey, I've got tickets for you. And did he leave 350 tickets for, for people?

Do you get to do that? I doubt that. I'm sure that there was a coordinated group kind of deal. Yes. Yeah, it was an event. So anyway, that's great. It's nice. It's great that they all came out to celebrate and to see Logan Ohapi play, except that Logan Ohapi went 0 for 10 with six straight heads. And when I saw that, I wondered if there was any connection because he's, he's a really good player. He's an above average hitter, not just for a catcher even. But wouldn't you feel a lot of pressure in that situation?

I know big league ballplayers are used to pressure and they're used to thousands and thousands of people watching them play, but not 350 plus people they know personally who are their guests in some sense. Your hometown crowd and they're all out there to watch you. That's got to be a lot of pressure. I feel like I would go 0 for 10 with more than six strikeouts, obviously, in a major league game. But even if I were a big leaguer, I feel like I'd be pressing in that situation. Like even more so than say a playoff game where the stakes, the competitive stakes are higher, but the personal stakes of 350 people, that's got to be everyone in his life. That's got to be all of his family and all of his friends and everyone he grew up with.

They're all there watching you. I would go for 10 with 10 strikeouts, I think. That seems like just a ton of pressure. I think that you would definitely feel it most acutely in the first game of the doubleheader. By the time you're into game two, I feel like other concerns are probably paramount. Like you're tired, it's been a busy day, you're ready to unwind, take a shower, have a sandwich, you know. He got to DH in the second game at least, but. Still, you're still going to be tired after you just caught, you still have to go up there and hit, my goodness, you'd be.

Four of the strikeouts came in his five at bats in the second game. Yeah. So see, proof positive. My buddy was tired. But I think that you would feel it most acutely in the first game. But also, if this is everyone you know and love, like sure, you want to do well for them, but they've been with you this whole time, right? Or at least for a long time, they know how baseball works. They understand. Sometimes that's just, you know how baseball works, they understand. Sometimes

that's just, you know, the way the cookie crumbles. It's like the way that the game is. The person you probably feel the most self-conscious around is the girl who was there who was also a cancer patient, because it sounds like maybe not as intimate an acquaintance as some of the other folks, right? Hopefully, this was not like a, I'll hit a homer for you situation. Because you definitely know better than to promise that. I think that, I think that big leaguers know not to promise that. I think they're aware that that's a, that's a bad, that's a bad idea to do.

I don't know. Maybe you're just like, yeah, that's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. Baseball, what are you going to do? He said it's obviously great and a little overwhelming, of course. So maybe he was overwhelmed. Maybe that's he was overwhelmed by the pitching on that day, I guess, but maybe also by the emotions that were at play and his dad being there. And he's happy, of course, but a lot of feelings.

Now there are a lot of players who, when you would think they would just be incapacitated by feelings, they excel, right? They have a family member pass away or something that just happened recently and you have a big game and you're able to channel that somehow. But I don't know that I would be able to. When I played when I was a kid, I didn't really want anyone to come to my game. I didn't really want my mom to come see me because I was just very conscious of the fact that she was watching me play, which again, maybe just illustrates that I don't have the major league mentality to put

those things aside. Or even if it was a play or recitals or something, my mom, if she came to watch me play, she would just kind of sneak in and watch from afar or something. I mean, my mom, if she came to watch me play, she would just kind of sneak in and like watch from afar or something. Because I just, you know, I guess I was glad that someone wanted to support me, but also I didn't really want to feel that pressure or feel that, not that my mom or anyone in my family was like your prototypical, you know, stereotypical like little league parent who's yelling at people or anything like that. But even so, I just didn't really want the added pressure, but that's just me. I don't know. Like when I did like theater and stuff, like it was nice that people were

there, but also, you know, you get into the flow of the thing and you do forget the presence of get into the flow of the thing and you do forget the presence of an audience, I think. It might take a minute. You might be shaky in the early going, but then I think you move on quick. Like I said, I bet it was less of an issue in the second game because you're just like so exhausted. Yeah. It was Wilier Abreu I was thinking of the Red Sox the other day who his grandmother died and then a day after that, he hit a couple of home runs and he was very emotional. And he said, it was a difficult situation.

I was playing for her. I dedicated this game to her. I was playing with my heart in my hand. For me to be able to go out there and perform was very special. That is great. And he was like, you know, he had tears in his eyes. He was kind of covering his face and everything

after he hit the first homer, and yet still able to perform at that level, which I guess if you're a big leader, you're used to that sort of thing, sort of, not a close relative dying, but just being forced to perform even if circumstances in your life are not really conducive to that. LS Yeah, to bear up under difficult circumstance. And you know, sometimes guys need a day or what have you. It's such a tricky thing because the amount of time that one needs to process, like profound grief like that, is going to far exceed whatever absence you're going to be able to take, right?

And so I do think that guys, for better or worse, have to figure out a way to kind of compartmentalize or channel it, however they, you know, they deal with it best either leaning into that feeling or, you know, having to sort of put it away in a box for a couple of hours so that they can can move on and do what they need to. It's tricky. It's a hard thing to know what to do with. I think a lot of people have to deal with that, you know, not often in front of an audience, but you know, when you're an accountant, you still have relatives who pass sometimes you got to figure out how to soldier on once you get back to work. It's a tricky thing to do, you know, this modern time of ours.

Yes. And I guess if like Logan Ohapi, you've been through all sorts of emotional peaks and valleys with your dad getting a stage four diagnosis a few years ago and then being in remission and everything, then having to play in front of people, maybe that doesn't throw you quite as much. Having been through something like that, you're just, you're happy that anyone is there to watch you, right? Yeah. I think you'd take your dad watching you kind of strike out and flail because he's there to watch you. That's a special thing, regardless of the performance on the field on any given day. Yes. Plus I imagine that Logan Ohapi's dad has seen him have innumerable bad games. Right. Yeah, this is sort of the point I was trying to make. It's like,

yeah, well, he's done it before, he'll do it again. Yeah. Even though as a future big leaguer, I'm sure that most of his games as an amateur were successful. Maybe he probably didn't have a whole lot of 0 for 10 with six strikeout days coming up, but still there have been highs and lows on the field, but not 350 plus people. So many. That's just a lot of, I don't know if they had multiple suites.

You'd need like, I don't know, you get to the point where you're like, hey, Yankees, help me out, I guess. It looks like, yeah, they were out in the stands, it looks like, but they must have had whole sections. So I guess they knew the angels would be in town for quite a while. That's always one of my favorite things about going to the Futures game because, you know, there are people there. How many can kind of depend on where they slotted in the day relative to the celebrity

softball game. But, you know, sometimes you'll have a prospect who's like a really big deal and you'll see jerseys, because that guy is like a big deal. But then sometimes it's like a lower key guy, even though it's, you know, it's an all-star game for prospects. And you'll see, you know, a group of people in like a given player's jerseys and you're like, I bet that's his mom. I bet like that's his mom or his aunt or something because who else is wearing that? No one.

No one else is wearing that? No one. No one else is wearing that today. Yeah. Speaking of emotional highs and lows, I was thinking, there's probably nothing worse in the realm of non-career threatening or life-threatening injuries than to come back from a long rehab and recovery and then immediately hurt yourself. Yeah. And that happened to Brustard Graderol of the Dodgers, who came back, he was out all season, and he was rehabbing from a shoulder problem, and then he finally gets back,

and first outing into his recovery in the big leagues, feels a pop in his right leg, and his eighth pitch of the season. And now he's done for the year again. It was a hamstring strain, grade three. He just like blew out his hamstring, which sounds painful when you describe it as blowing out sort of muscle that just makes it seem even. And you could see like he was emotional because he knew that it was probably pretty bad. And here he is having worked his way back for months and months and months and Clayton Kershaw, who himself just returned from a lot of recovery and rehabs

and super sad. There's a lot of stuff that goes into coming back and getting on this field unless you've done it. You don't really know. We all feel for him. He loves to pitch. He loves to be out there. He loves to be with us. It's sad if this is a season ender, it's really hard, obviously. And that happens every now and then. We mentioned Kodaisanga for the Mets, who came back from his own issue that sidelined him for most of the season.

And then in his very first start back, he had a calf strain and that's probably it for him, at least for the regular season. And I guess Hermon Marquez was another one this year where he was returning from Tommy John, right? And then he finally made it back and pitched just one game, July 14th, didn't pitch that great and then went right back onto the IL and now is done for the year seemingly. That I guess at least was another injury. Like he went back on the IL with elbow inflammation, which maybe that's not as surprising

if you're coming back from a UCL injury. But the one where you're just rehabbing something else entirely, a shoulder or whatever it is, and then you come back and you just pull a muscle or tear a calf or a hammy in your first game back, that's got to be so demoralizing. That's really tough. Yeah. I think, you know, I can't decide if I think it would feel better or worse for it to be a completely new separate kind of injury or not, because, you know, if you're a pitcher

and you've been out with an elbow thing and then you have an elbow thing happen again, that's maybe like the worst possible thing. Because now you're thinking, well, my understanding of like my ability to come back from this, the likelihood that I'll come back as strong as I thought I was going to be might be appreciably altered. But also if you, you know, you're gradoral and you've worked so hard to come back from the thing that is preventing you from doing the main part of your job.

And then you're like, what else? Like another thing? Like another bad thing? And it is, those hamstring ones are the worst because like, I think it is probably the injury that guys have the best and most accurate feel for in terms of severity. Like, you know, you know when you've done that and you know when you've done an Achilles. I think that guys are like, I'm going to do a big swear. That's like the ultimate like, like you just, it makes that noise. It makes that noise that you can hear above the sound of

the ballpark. You know? That's terrible. Yeah. Poor guy. I'm trying to think of other examples of this. If this is ringing a bell in any listener minds, let us know of someone who just made it back from a long road of recovery and then instantly hurt themselves again. That's, yeah, I don't know what would be worse than that other than I guess like finally making your major league debut and you get injured immediately.

Like Dustin Fowler is the one who always comes to my mind. Outfielder for the Yankees who was in his very first inning as a major leaguer and ruptured his tendon in his right knee. He ran into like an electrical box, right? Yeah, like ran into the wall or there was a thing on there. Yeah, and then he had to have season ending surgery right after that and eventually made it back.

But that's- He's never the same after that though. Right, yeah, and that's like going from the high of, I finally made it, like I'm a big leaguer, you know, ma, I made it. And then you're instantly like in acute pain and out for who knows how long. Maybe that's worse. But I don't know, at least then you're like early in your career and you're embarking on a rehab, but you didn't have to just complete one where it must feel like a Sisyphus sort of situation.

If you just work your way back from something and then something else goes, not that you're ever guaranteed to make it back. There's the famous story of Larry Yount, who heard himself warming up for his first major league appearance and never made it back to a major league mount. I wonder whether having been rehabbing, like are you more susceptible to a hammy or a calf or something when you're just working your way back from say a shoulder injury? I could see it either way, I guess, because sometimes when you rehab from something,

you actually get in good shape because you're like exercising, you're rehabbing, you're working out all the time. But then again, maybe you're focusing on that body part that you're rehabbing and I guess you haven't been in big league games at least. So I wonder, you're not doing your usual stretching routine or whatever it is. Uh-huh. Uh-huh. You're not doing your usual stretching routine or whatever it is. Uh-huh, uh-huh. You're stretching? Your dynamic stretching routine,

not your static stretching routine, which no one in their right minds would do that, what a waste. But I wonder whether that conditions you better or worse. Who knows? I mean, people strain calves and hamstrings all the time, not just when they're returning from injury.

So it could just be a coincidence. But yeah, if there are any examples that people think of, someone finally makes it back and then instantly they're gone again, I'd be interested in being reminded. I think that in terms of the propensity for injury after rehab and what role the rehab itself plays, I mean, I'm sure, like you said, it varies a lot. I do think that there are a lot of guys who, you know, we see this with prospects often where like if a guy blows out, you know, that might be a time where both the player and the organization are like, okay, we're going to like kind of reshape

your body, you know, we're going to you have this time Where you're not able to get into games, you know let's use it as an opportunity to like kind of rework your physique and help you to Maybe be in better position not just in terms of your ability to sort of bounce back from this injury but to you know have a more repeatable delivery to to have a more repeatable delivery to, sometimes guys will use that as an opportunity to change their delivery in a meaningful way, right? Let's incorporate that into the process of rehab. Why not? You're just, you know, I don't want to say you're just hanging out because you're having

to work very hard to come back from injury, but your responsibilities and sort of cadence are different than they would be if you were dealing with game action. So it probably depends a lot on the guy, which is why I, a non-doctor, am going, eh. Probably pretty frustrating for Dodgers fans too, because they've had so many injuries and then you feel like we finally got a guy back and then they get hurt again, which is not the first time that that's happened this season. But I'm looking at the baseball prospectus injured list ledger. And however you slice it, days missed, games missed, wins above replacement player projected missed, 1583 days missed. This is to players who are injured and almost eight warp wins above replacement player.

So even though they've been pretty good, they have lost a lot of value and time to injuries this season. So yeah, you feel like, oh, the cavalry has arrived. The reinforcements are here. Oh, hamstring stream gone again. Yeah, it's a bummer. Another guy who did just return from a long recovery and has not re-injured himself is Anthony Gohs.

He's back, back for the Guardians. He just returned. He hasn't been in the majors since 2022. He had Tommy John surgery and what a fascinating career progression Anthony Goose has had because of course, he was a light hitting center fielder and then remade himself as a pitcher, converted as a pitcher, I guess in his mid twenties, if not later, and he was a hard thrower. And then he makes it back up as a pitcher, as a reliever in 2021.

I think he made it back to the big leagues with the guardians. And then after 22, he had Tommy John and he just made it back. And his first outing didn't go great. He gave up a couple of runs and an ending in a third, but still like he's lived a few different lives as a baseball player. And certainly talked a lot about David Fletcher this season and also Brett Phillips now attempting to make

that same kind of conversion. And yeah, then it goes, he's doing it and he's getting up there. He will turn 34 on Saturday. And probably a lot of guys would have given up when they washed out as a hitter or then when they had Tommy John surgery well into their thirties as a pitcher. And here he is back on a first place team again. Good for goes.

Good for goes. So did you see this news about the next special event, special location we are getting for a baseball game? There is going to be a game at Bristol Motor Speedway in 2025, which is an interesting setting to say the least. So the Braves and the Reds going to be playing a game next year at Bristol Motor Speedway, which is this historic NASCAR track. And it is not a ballpark. There's no baseball fields there currently. So this is a little bit different from the Field of Dreams game or the other special events we've seen, the Rickwood field game, big leaguers playing at Williamsport where they hold the Little League World Series.

This is another sports, another sporting events venue that is not a ballpark and they're going to have to build a ballpark here in order for big leaguers to play. So this is like the next level, I guess, of this initiative to play baseball in interesting, unusual places. They've played in many countries, of course, and also these historic or atypical ballparks, but like places where there actually is baseball or has been baseball. And now we're just transitioning to, this is not even a baseball venue, but it's going to become

one. What do you make of this? I have so many thoughts about this. The first is that if I offer my unvarnished take on motor sports and how applicable I think the word sport is to it, that we will never have an end to the emails that we receive. So I will simply say that I'm glad that this thing that people like brings them joy, even though it is the thing that I do not personally find a lot of pleasure in. I'm happy for you, whether it's NASCAR or Formula One. I think the horses in the Olympics should get the medals, but like, you know, anyway. So I have conflict around my opinion on this

because on the one hand, I think there's something inherently cool about being like, can they play baseball there? And then like doing a thing to see if they can? Because I imagine it'll be like in the center part of the track, right? That's like, they're going to make a baseball diamond out of that. Because it's going to be in the motorway, right? It's not going to be like outside.

Because if they were like, we're going to put a baseball field in the parking lot, that would be like dramatically as cool. And they have played a football game here previously in 2016, Tennessee and Virginia Tech played a college football game. They just built a field there. So that has happened. Yeah. So like, I think, I think that that approach to like, can we put a field here,

play baseball? Yeah. Is cool. Like, I just think that that's fun and it's fine for things to be fun. I also though, I think one of the many things about the Rickwood game that made it so compelling is this, you know, promise and potential of there being ongoing investment in that space being available and accessible and usable by not just, you know, two big league teams on this particular day, but the community on a going forward basis, right?

And I suspect that like MLB's appetite for novelty games and games in places where they might continue to have, you know have a real connection to the community and have ongoing investment for people who live there to play baseball, particularly young people. That appetite is finite, and I don't really even necessarily mean that as a criticism. I just think that that's a reality of these kinds of endeavors. They're not going to do a million of endeavors. Like they're not gonna do a million of these. And so I do wonder if it would be possible for us to have as a sort of like selection criteria, yeah, do

the fun, can we play baseball there? But do that in places where you have the possibility for like a little league team or a high school team to keep using that facility going forward. Like I would rather than maybe tackle the challenge of like, hey, let's go to a midsize city that is lacking in baseball infrastructure and see where in the existing built urban environment we could put a field so that, you know, they can do this fun game and then the local little league league, little league league, the local little league, can I just say the local little league? I can just say the local little league. The local little league, leave it in, the exploration of language, so fun, part of this

podcast. Can continue to use it going forward. So that's my only hesitation because it's like, how many of these do we really get in a given calendar year? Maybe we want to prioritize embracing novelty in places where that novelty can continue to pay dividends for the communities in which this takes place. So, you know, that's what I tend to think about that. It's, there's a little bit of conflict. Also, I'm, I have zero conflict about the fact that the horses should get the medals.

Give the horses the medals. The horses getting the medals is a way for me to take a dig at motorsports without having to go into the whole big thing. Because it's like everyone likes horses. Although some people don't trust horses. Some people find horses like kind of off-putting because they're so big and they can't actually do math. So you think the cars should get the trophies?

No, I don't. I mean, I guess I do because what's power in the race there? You know what I mean? I know that there's skill involved. Yes, there's a lot of skill. There's skill. I'm not denying. And in the car optimizing, etc. Wait, I'm not denying that there is skill. There's absolutely skill and expertise. But is there a sport?

There's a race. It's an age old debate. What is a sport? What isn't? What is a sport? We're guaranteed to piss people off whichever position you take. I'm so happy for all of you. And particularly the ones that that found Formula One during the

pandemic because of that Netflix stock, and now it's like their entire personality. And look, I make my entire personality beyond all kinds of, I was going to say dumb, but that carries judgment that I only partially mean. All sorts of things that can't bear the load of the personality, put it that way. And so fine, you have your preferred Formula One drivers. Some of them seem like they're very attractive, so good for them. I don't understand how one becomes like a Formula One driver. It's just like, I don't know, maybe it's just that I'm looking at it and I'm like, that

seems like rich people s***, that's none of my business. Anyway, much like Dressage. But give the horses the medals, Ben. CB Yeah. I think I am generally in favor of playing baseball in as many interesting locations as possible, assuming that the facilities are up to snuff and shape and everything. I like it. Let's experiment. I like playing in many countries and let's play games in London and Mexico City and Tokyo and Seoul. Then yeah, let's play in historic ballparks and bring greater attention to them. If we're going to do this now, and I'm not a motor sports enthusiast

or any kind of racing enthusiast, but I think probably there's a lot of overlap among baseball fans, right? I would think there's a lot of baseball fans who are into NASCAR and think this is super cool. And it seems like the players involved are pretty hyped about this. So that's fun for them. And there could be a gigantic crowd, right?

This could be the best attended baseball game ever. So this athletic article I'm reading says, according to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, the largest crowd for an MLB game belongs to a 2008 exhibition match between the Red Sox and Dodgers at the Los Angeles Coliseum. Red Sox won that game in front of an officially announced crowd of 115,300, the only time the hall says a baseball crowd has provably exceeded 100,000. Now the football game in this venue drew 156,990. So I don't know whether the baseball game will, but if it does, Austin Riley said it'll be like SEC football. I mean, to have a crowd like that for a baseball game, that would be kind of cool, right? I wonder what other opportunities there are, what potential there is. If we're going to extend this to other sports, where could we go next with this?

If any sport is fair game, then where could we play that would also be interesting? I mean, I guess if you just play in a football field or a soccer pitch or whatever, it's not really as interesting, I guess. You just kind of build a diamond on it and play in a part of it. This visually, I think is quite interesting, right? I mean, London Stadium where they've played the London MLB games, that's like a multi-purpose place where they've played all sorts of things, right? And so I guess, like, you know, you can play soccer there or rugby or whatever,

and you just configure the field differently. But now I'm wondering, like, you know, where else can we play? It doesn't have to be a sporting venue, I guess. Like what national landmarks can we just play an impromptu MLB game on? Just build a stadium there. Well, and I don't know that you need to like do it on. Like one of the things that I have enjoyed very much about the Paris games and here, you know, I said like don't play a baseball game in the parking lot next to

the arena, but like it has been very, very cool to like watch an Olympic sporting event and like there's just the Eiffel Tower there, you know, like the Eiffel Tower is just like in the background or like, you know, they did dressage Versailles, right? Wasn't it just like on the grounds of Versailles? Like it's amazing. It's such a cool background for this stuff. And I know that the Olympics are fraught and I'm not trying to like excuse the like financial malfeasance that can happen there. And it's so weird that those people swam in the sand. They were like, there was like E. coli one day and then it was all gone.

I was like, I don't, I am not a scientist, but my gut tells me maybe quite literally that that's not how E. coli works. But anyway, well, they do, did do really cool stuff to like improve like the infrastructure, sewage infrastructure in Paris, apparently. So again, like make a lasting investment, right? Anyway, they could play a baseball game on the National Mall with like, you know, the Capitol building behind it or like the Lincoln Memorial. I know that logistically that's challenging because of like where it is relative to other stuff, but like put it in a place with like a cool thing behind it and be like, wow, you

know, like that would be, that would be cool. Play a baseball game at the bottom of the Grand Canyon. Don't do that. Like, but don't, but see, like that's what I was thinking. It's hard when it's a natural thing because you don't want to do like ecosystem destruction. That's why you don't want to hurt the Grand Canyon or like the river at the bottom of it, the donkeys. The donkeys aren't native to the Grand Canyon, I don't think. I think that they just come and go, you know, like as a tourist thing. But that would be cool to like play it in front of a, didn't they play a baseball game on an aircraft carrier?

Am I making that up? Well, they've definitely had the home run derbies on aircraft carriers. And I know that they've played basketball games. They played college basketball games on aircraft carriers. And then of course there are like the outdoor classic NHL games, right? Some of them played in baseball parks, right?

And people like seeing these things that you're used to seeing in one context in a completely different context. It's just, it's new and novel and varieties of spice of life. So, all right, well, write in with your suggestions. I'm interested in hearing either we could take over some other sporting venue or some other recognizable

place, you know, play a baseball game at Red Rocks or something like that. Right. That would be so cool. Yeah. Something like that. Where a baseball game on the track where they do the weird biking during the Olympics. Sure. Yeah.

I love what's the weird biking called? And it's like, they got the funny wheels. It's like you're watching Tron. It's amazing. It's amazing. You know, it's like you feel a way about the Olympics as like an institution and a use of, you know, money. And there's all this corruption in the IOC and like they're letting people run races

with COVID and like there's, there are problems to be had. And I, I'm conscious of all of those things. And then you put on GoldZone, Ben, and it just like gets wiped because it's so amazing. Sports are so incredible. The things that these people can do, all the different kinds of bodies, like, and seeing what like the optimal, you know, sort of physique and training of all these different people with all these different sports and how different they all look from each other.

And it's so beautiful. They all seem to have real camaraderie. Like that has been my other big takeaway from the Paris games is that like all of these athletes they're competing, they want to win. Like they take this stuff so seriously. It's their life's ambition and project. And also it feels as if there is a very keen understanding among all of them that like there is such a small group of people who can possibly understand what it is to do this at that level, right? And the camaraderie that that creates betwixt

and between them despite international barriers and not always speaking the same language. Although sometimes you compete for Sweden and you just grew up in Louisiana and then I watch you and I'm like, your brother played baseball for LSU, which is hilarious. And then you have that accent during your hungover interview. Incredible. You know, it's like I don't love the institution, but I love the games, man. It's not even Friday and I am like in my feelings about the Olympics and I still

don't know the name of Weird Bike. I can't remember it. Weird Bike. I'm just calling it Weird Bike, man. That's just what it's called now. One downside, I guess, is that you lose a home game, so you do have to kind of take it away from your team's fans. And I guess it could be a big expense, although maybe it pays for itself if you can sell that many tickets and it's a big broadcast event. But I think the other potential here is that the dimensions could be weird,

and that might be fun. Now it could go too far. It's a real game, it counts. It's not just an exhibition. And so you don't want to kind of make a mockery of the sport. You want it to be a regulation field. But given the shape of this thing, you'd think that it would most likely have to be

like kind of shallow in the corners and like a deep center. I mean, you could do like a polo grounds kind of dimensions if you wanted to. And by the way, the polo grounds, it's right there in the name. It was for polo. And then they played baseball there. So you could have dimensions like that

where it's just really deep to center. I guess it depends on how they construct it, but we got a well-timed email from listener Nick about that that I figured I'd read. He wrote in, I've been wondering about why the distance to the fence varies depending on the part of the ballpark, with straightaway center field being the hardest part of the field to homer in, and down the lines being the easiest. I remember as a fan growing up being frustrated when a player walloped a 400 foot fly ball to center field only for it to be caught on the warning track, and as I'm typing this email, Calralli just had a potential game winning homer robbed in Deet Center. If only he had pulled the ball, then it would have been a home run.

Wouldn't it be fairer if all fences were uniform distance from home plate, essentially rewarding a home run if a player could hit the ball some established distance? Why do you think fence distances are the way that they are? Could it be to add more variety to a sport that's already very random because the ball tends to fly farther if a batter can perfectly square it up to center field? Is there some historical reason?

Curious to hear your thoughts on this. And this is one of these questions that it sounds like should be really easy to answer, but I don't think it actually is. I've seen many theories and explanations. I think probably the biggest reason why the field is shaped the way that it is, why center field tends to be deeper is that historically speaking, they were kind of cramming ballparks inside a city, right? I mean, initially you didn't have any outfield fences, but if you were

trying to squeeze a field into a city block, let's say, then it's going to be a square or a rectangle or something. And so it almost has to be that kind of shape where it's sort of like, you know, longer or deeper than it is wide. And so you're just gonna get that. I mean, that's why, you know, Fenway looks like it looks or Wigley looks like it looks.

I mean, you're just sort of squeezing a ballpark into an urban environment. And I think even now when you might not do that as often, you might have plenty of space or it might be more suburban. You're kind of mimicking that traditional shape. Or even in some of the parks that are kind of consciously retro, you have some unusual feature like that because it hearkens back

to an earlier era of the game. And then I guess there might be other reasons like, well, second base is deeper. It's farther from home plate than first and third. And so to keep it kind of proportionate with the diamond, you maybe have to make centerfield deeper. And I think there's probably something to that idea. If you square a pitch up and hit it right back the way that it came in, like there's less side spin. And so maybe it's going to carry a bit better. Like if you look at the average fly ball distance of a polled ball,

as opposed to one hit straight away, then it might be longer, but I think maybe, you know, the max that you're going to hit one might be out to center, but I don't know if that would have been the original reason, cause originally they didn't have so many over the fence homers. I guess they didn't have fences so much. Uh, I don't know if they constructed the field because guys tended to hit the ball deeper to center at that point, or whether they were just kind of cramming it in.

But I think a lot of it was just kind of cramming it in. And that allows you to have more real estate out there and more fair territory and more balls to fall. And also, yeah, I think it is more interesting. I mean, the cookie cutter multipurpose stadium that we used to have, people didn't really like that. You like having different dimensions and things being different from field to field. AMT – I know that if you were starting baseball over again today, I imagine that variable field dimension or outfield ball distance would go by the wayside.

That would not be a thing that we would do now if we were like, we're building brand new ballparks. I love this alternative where it's like, we have a new sport and we have all the money and interest to build 30 ballparks in 30 different cities. But I imagine that that would sort of fall by the wayside. But it is a nice, cool quirk of the way that the sport develops and one that I think we would miss if it were gone. Velodrome, it's called, it's Cycle Track is the sport.

It's not weird bike, but it's done in velodromes and velodrome, that's amazing, Ben. That's an amazing word. What, there should, Velodrome, Velodrome. Is it That's amazing, Ben. That's an amazing word. What there should Velo drum, Velo drum. Is it because I go Velo drum? Weird bike man. Call it weird bike. Yeah. I was going to bring up Velo because did you see that Aroldis Chapman threw 105 mile per

hour pitch again? Did he? Yeah. He threw 105.1 mile per hour pitch and then he struck out Manny Machado looking on a 104.7 mile per hour pitch. And Chapman is still the only player on record in the pitch tracking era to throw 105 mile per hour pitch and did it so many seasons apart, right? 2016, he threw 105.2 mile per hour pitch.

And I guess Ben Joyce threw 104.7 mile per hour pitch just recently too. So it's, it's tied for the hardest strikeout pitch in the pitch tracking era. But I brought this up earlier this season. I just continue to marvel at his arm, holding up, throwing these velocities. He is 36 years old, Aroldis Chapman. He is in his 15th major league season. He has to donate his UCL to science because if we could figure out how Aroldis Chapman has managed to retain his speed for this long without suffering

serious arm injuries. And if we could replicate whatever it is about his arm that has enabled him to do that for this long, maybe we could engineer some sort of solution to the arm injury epidemic. Because I just don't get it. If you look at velocity aging curves, you know, pitchers tend to lose like what? Half a tick per year or something like that, at least beyond a certain point. And most pitchers, their max velo is like when they first come up and then it's just attrition from then, you know, they're just losing a little bit. Not, not everyone obviously, but, and his average fastball speed, I think is lower than it used to be, but like clearly he's still able

to get it up as fast as he ever could. And he's been quite effective lately. So I just, I marvel at the mostly injury-free longevity of the hardest thrower, at least on record in the game's history. I wish that other people had whatever that quality is that has made him almost impervious for so long while throwing harder than anyone.

Yeah, he's such a fascinating... I mean, like, there's a lot about Chapman that is fascinating for not good reasons, obviously, but... Not celebrating the person here... Yeah, no, I know. I got you then. Yeah, no, I'm just making clear to everyone else. It was domestic violence suspension on his record too here. So it's not that I'm personally pleased on his behalf.

It's just that as a real freak of nature, I mean, that's basically what his arm has been. Yeah, and he's fascinating because he shows both the ways in which the modern pitcher and a particular kind of pitcher can really thrive, right? He has had tremendous success being able to throw very hard. He also is a great case study in plus plus velo not being sufficient on its own, right? It is not a sufficient condition to being a super effective pitcher all the time because there have been times when he's been incredibly good and there have been times where he's

been pretty lousy. And so he is like in some ways, I think the archetypal example of what a modern pitcher is, it's just uncomfortable to talk about him in those terms because of the parts of his track record as a person that are obviously really distasteful. So he's a fascinating, uncomfortable one for me, because it's like, yeah, you're right. Let's understand how this guy has been able to at least sustain the arm health part, but then also let's dig in on the fact that being able to throw really, really hard for a long time isn't always enough. Yeah. Does he have a thicker UCL than the average person? Presumably you could determine

that I guess on an MRI. I don't know if you have to open up the arm to dig around in there. Yeah, you definitely don't want to do that. That would be inhumane. Or like, is it mechanics that has, is he imparting less strain, less stress to the UCL than you would expect based on how hard he throws? Or is it something about the physical makeup of his elbow that has enabled him to do this? I just would like to know. What could we learn from, sometimes you can learn from an outlier. Sometimes you might just learn that,

yeah, like he is blessed or gifted in this way and we can't really replicate it, but maybe there's something he's doing that other pitchers could do. I don't know. It's fascinating. So while we're talking about the defining relievers of their era, just wanted to pass along this note from Joshian in his excellent newsletter, Joshian.com. We were kind of quizzical about Craig Kimbrel recently and talking about how he'll be remembered. And Joe wrote, Craig Kimbrell's last four appearances have all had a leverage index of less than 0.2, where one is an average stake situation, which is more or less how you'd use me if I wandered into your bullpen. The Orioles became the fifth straight team to acquire Kimbrell as a closer and move him to low leverage relief in less than a year. And Joe pointed this out at the time of the signing.

And I think we talked about it then too. And it just really just baffles me, just boggles my mind that team after team after team is like, yeah, let's go get Greg Kimbrough, let's splurge on this guy. This is who we want pitching in the late innings. And then inevitably each of them decides at some point, oh, that was a mistake. And, you know, maybe they're just trying to get him right. And then they'll move him back into late inning, high leverage relief. But there's always this point where he loses the gig and becomes like a

glorified, highly paid mop up man. And then the next team I've seduced by, I don't know what his stuff or his strikeouts or his past success decides, yeah, we want to be in the Craig Kimbrough business. Like, let's, let's run it back. Let's do this again. I just, I don't get it. Like any fan who has watched Craig Kimbrough pitch for their team could be like, don't do this.

Don't subject your fans to this. It's not a pleasant experience. And yet they keep doing it. I don't do this. Don't subject your fans to this. It's not a pleasant experience. And yet they keep doing it. I don't get it. Maybe they just think the way that he sets up is really cool. Maybe they still think it's really cool. And you know, I do think that there's a, when a guy has been very dominant in the past, I think that there is a particular, especially among smart teams, maybe like a, not an unearned

faith because like they're smart for a reason, but like a misplaced optimism that you, a smart team are going to be able to like unlock the thing that takes him back to that. I think that that ends up working its way into the calculus for, for some teams. Like that's how you explain his current contract situation. Maybe, maybe, I don't know. for some teams. Like that's how you explain his current contract situation. Maybe. Maybe. I don't know. Maybe. And it could be that it's not a misplaced optimism, but it just didn't materialize the way they thought. Like maybe they saw something. They're like, we can fix that for him. We know how to help him fix that. And then it just hasn't really worked

the way that they expected it to. But I do wonder, like if we were to go back and look at guys kind of like that signing with like the smart team and then it doesn't work with the smart team. Does it then like, does the appetite lessen over time? Because I think that the Phillies are not like a bad pitching dev organization at this point. Like they've had some good success lately. And then like the Orioles also continue to want to see more proof in more pudding, but like they're a smart team. They have good player dev people. Maybe they're like, oh, but does it happen again? You know, like does it happen again after that? I don't know.

Yeah, and man that Grayson Rodriguez injury hurts for the Orioles. It's a, what a lat injury and he's had a more serious version of this in the past. This one doesn't seem so serious. He's on the IL, but he is expected to return this season and they, they really do need him because without him, that rotation, like adding Eflin helped certainly, but it's kind of like Burns and Rodriguez and then significant step down I'd say, you know, Eflin's not bad and then everyone else is just kind of like, you know, back of the rotation starter, which I guess is okay because they're in the back of the rotation at that point, your Dean Kramer types, Trevor Rogers,

they could have maybe done more at the deadline, but I thought that getting Rogers and Eflin was like, with a healthy Rodriguez, I thought that was a good enough top four that they could go into the playoffs feeling fairly confident. I know that the Rogers trade drew a lot of criticism, not because they traded prospects for him, but because he was all they got for those prospects, right? Like those guys weren't going to be a part of the future Orioles. And so they were expendable,

but then you look at like what the J's got for Kikuchi or, you know, or, or you look at like, I guess the Cardinals getting feddy the way that they did, right? We talked about that and then you look at, huh, could they have gotten more for the guys they gave up then Trevor Rogers, who has not been great this season, but yeah, you take Grayson Rodriguez out of that rotation and suddenly it looks shakier. So they got to get him back and healthy. Yeah. Kimbrough also famously with the Dodgers, another good pitching team. So like the third time, what are we doing? You know, like now I, you know, like, yeah, I, on the one hand,

I think that you're right that perhaps the ambition could have been pitched a little bit higher, but I also am reticent to, do I want to say that the Blue Jays fleeced the Astros? That might be too strong, but I'm reticent to look at what I perceive to be overpays and say, well, why weren't you able to extract another overpay? Because there is something about the particular team seeking out a particular guy and being willing to pay what is perceived to be above market that I think is so specific to the pairing of teams and the particular guy that they want. That doesn't mean that an equivalent deal is present in the market for other players.

You know what I mean? But could they have gotten Kikuchi? Probably, maybe, could be true. But also would they have gone to Toronto to be like, here's who we will trade you for you say Kikuchi and have them go, yeah, I don't know. Like again, I thought it was an overpay. It does seem like there have been more intra division trades recently while I'm, while I'm filing away future staff blasts. That's another thing I've been meaning to look into. I think there have been more, there were some at this deadline and it kind of makes sense that there should be more, right? I,

I think that was probably sort of a silly sticking point. We don't want to trade within the division because we might look bad. I think probably there's been a greater recognition that, well, if you think it's helping you, I mean, if you make a trade, you think it's making you better. You think you're getting the better end of it. Granted, like you might be focused on the present and the trading partners focused on the future, but you'd think that you might want to trade the present and the trading partners focused on the future, but you'd think that you might want to trade with a team in the division if you're confident in the trade that you're making.

And then beyond that, like just focus less on how it will look if you lose the trade because it's a team in the division and you're going to have to be facing those players. Like I'm not saying that's not something to think about, but ultimately is that more of like a pride or ego thing? Like you're, you're cutting off options. If you exclude the few teams that are in your division, you might as well get the best deal that you can, even if it means that you're trading with a direct rival. Yeah, I think that's true. But I also think that when that guy ends up being good against you, it feels worse. And you're going to hear about it a lot.

And so I think there is like a self-preservation aspect to it for GM sometimes where they're like, I don't want to, excuse my swear, I don't want to hear about this when that guy like shuts us out or goes deep against us in a playoff game or whatever. Like he's just like, no, thank you, pass. And that is a bigger motivator than we would normally expect with like otherwise be boop boop rational front offices. Yeah, that's probably true. While we were talking about the Orioles, I meant to mention a Jackson Holiday update because,

you know, the second go around is going a lot better for Jackson Holiday. This is the Jackson Holiday that we were waiting to see and expecting to see. And actually, since he came up again, so he returned on July 31st. This is a extremely small sample. This is seven games, but he has the third best WRC plus in baseball and also the third most war in baseball over that span. He has hit 375, 444, 917. He has hit four homers, including that grand slam that was his first. And then he's hit homers in three consecutive games. I think he's the youngest American league player to have done that. I think Melot did it younger in the national league.

So this is much more like it. This is, this is the Jacksoniday who was promised, right? And I saw Travis Satchik had an article at the score about how the Orioles worked with him, and they determined that high fastballs were his weakness in his first go-round. Like he had just an extreme whiff rate on high fastballs. That was why he was striking out so much

in his first taste of the majors. And so they sent him back down with marching orders balls, that was why he was striking out so much in his first taste of the majors. And so they sent him back down with marching orders to practice and train specifically against high fast balls. And they did all these high Velo drills with foam balls and everything. And he worked and worked and worked on that. And it seems like he has closed that hole that he had because he's very talented and also very coachable. He, he wants to learn and he wants to get better, even though he was so

highly touted and you know, big league dad and everything. So he's good now, I guess. I mean, it's just a week. We didn't want to overreact to his initial audition, which didn't go great. And I guess we need to overreact to one week's worth of games either. But yeah, he, he looks like he's like he's going to be good as we expected. Yeah, I think you're right that you want to employ balance, but it is helpful to see a demonstration of the capacity to play like this at the big league level, even if I don't

imagine that he will be this on fire for the rest of his career. You do have to show us that you can do it, or at least a version of it, even if we imagine that your baseline will be dialed down from what you're showing us right now. Because sometimes guys just bust, you know? It does happen. Maybe we could just do a general Jackson update here, because as you might recall, one of my bold predictions in our preseason predictions game, episode 2143, was that the four Jacksons, Holliday, Job, Churio, and Merrill, would produce more fan graphs war than the four jacked sons, Yandy Diaz, Tyler O'Neill, Adelise Garcia, and Michael Lorenzen. And so far, I'm on track to win that one handily, it looks like. Jackson

Job has not been in the big leagues yet. He's been pitching well in AA. Maybe he'll come up at some point. You had a bold prediction that Jackson Job would throw a no-hitter in the majors in 2024. So he's got to get to the majors in order to make good on that. I'll tell you something. You could tell me that I had predicted anything and I would believe you because I don't remember, man. Well, it's on the Effectively Wild Wiki, so we know it's real. But I think that math is working out for me now. The Jacksons, even without Job thus far, are easily outstripping the Jacked Sons. So the Jacksons have accumulated 5.5 war entering Thursday's games, and the Jacked Sons are at just 3.2. Adolius Garcia has not held up his end of the bargain.

Adolphe Garcia has not held up his end of the bargain. So I guess we could give an update on Marilyn and Churio because those guys have been really good. They were kind of overshadowed in the Jackson hype by Holliday, but they've been excellent. And this won't even account for, I think Jackson Churio just hit two home runs today. So that won't even be factored into this. And I think Jackson Merrill scored a run and had a hit also. So this is before today, but those guys, so Churio started really slow, right? Like he was slumpin' for the first couple months

of the season, whereas Merrill got off to a decent start. But both of those guys have really turned it on. So if we just look at June 1st on among qualified hitters, both Merrill and Churio are in the top 25 most valuable position players in baseball over that span. And again, that's not even counting Churio's two homers he just hit, but 144 WRC plus for Churio, 145 for Merrill, again, since June 1st. So they've been basically equal in value and equal at the plate. They've both been worth about two war over that span also. So yeah, it's not just Jackson holiday. The other Jacksons have

been up all year and they've been really good at least for the past few months. And Jackson Churio has been a big part of that Brewers offense that we've talked about that's been surprisingly productive. I guess it's not unexpected that they were all top prospects too. But- Yeah, they didn't come out of nowhere, but some of them were to your point struggling early and it's nice to see it kind of turn around, to round into form. Can I ask you a question, speaking of rounding into form? Has the sort of trajectory and shape of Bobby Witt Jr.'s career altered at all sort of how

much leash you're willing to give young players when they're coming up in terms of them sort of actualizing and really looking like the guys that we expected them to? Has that changed anything for you? I'm not suggesting it should have one way or the other but I think that it has given me a Little more patience and it's not like his specific trajectories without precedent in baseball before but he I think he was a useful Reminder to me that it can just take a minute. You know, sometimes a guy has to find his footing. Maybe he just served as a corrective to like all of the guys who had,

we've talked about this before, how we had this like run of guys who came up and were just like really good right away. And maybe I needed a reminder that there can be a different path to being maybe the best player in baseball. You know? Yeah. He's been unbelievable lately. Yeah.

Yeah. Well, because when he came up, he was the best prospect in baseball, right? And he was not bad. Again, like age 22, he was roughly a league average hitter, if not a little bit better, but the defense was very rough, right? To the point where people were questioning, can he stick it shortstop? And then last year he made clear that yes, he could stick it shortstop. And in fact, he could be a good shortstop.

And then this year, he's just like, if he was, you know, a star level player last year, and he was, I mean, he was seventh in MVP voting and then he got the big extension. Now, yeah, he might be the best player in baseball. So he's not only like a great fielder, but one of the best hitters in baseball too. So it's, I mean, it's not an atypical progression, historically speaking. Like the aging curve has changed. So guys will age out faster and they will age in earlier or they'll be more productive from the get-go now because probably, you know, better training and better player development

and, you know and maybe better decisions on the part of teams about when to promote players when they're ready. All of those factors were just seeing less of the typical arc that you used to see where you'd come up, you'd make your debut, and then you'd gradually get better. And then eventually your physical skills would slip to the point where your experience couldn't compensate and you'd be on the down slope of your career. Whereas now I think that's still the general shape, but it's less of a pronounced upward arc because you're kind of closer to your peak when you get up there.

But he has gone from, you know, like sub replacement level player to all star and guy who gets MVP votes to possibly the MVP or deserving MVP at least. So yeah, it's been really rapid progress. I guess the, the defensive turnaround was maybe the most impressive or surprising potentially to me, even more so than, impressive or surprising potentially to me, even more so than, I mean, I don't know if, if this sort of offensive ceiling, I guess, has the best prospect in baseball. The ceiling was fairly limitless for him, but yeah, he's just put it all together and corrected all the weaknesses. AMT – Yeah, I will note that being the best prospect in baseball, it did depend on the outlet we had Adley ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. in 2022. And I think a number of other outlets did too, although I think Keith Law had Bobby Witt

number one, if I remember correctly. And if I don't, sorry, Keith. Yeah, like part of it too was like he was 22 when he graduated at least. I mean, he was 20, I think that was his age 22 season, his rookie year. Yeah. So like he was quite young, you think that was his age 22 season, his rookie year. Yeah. So like he was quite young, you know, but yeah, like Bobby Witt. Man, the group of 2022 graduates from a prospect perspective, it's not all good, but boy, there's some, there's some really good 2022 debut guys, man. It's like, Richmond and Witt and Julio and Gabrielle

Moreno and Ray Lee Green, Spencer Jorgensen hasn't worked out as well. Cruz, CJ Abrams, another one maybe where it's like, hey, sometimes this takes a minute. You know, he was so young when he came up. He was also 22. Anyway, just marveling at Bobby Witt Jr. out of the clear blue nowhere because easy to do. Yeah, I know. We should marvel at him more often, if anything. We had a conversation, I don't know when exactly, earlier this season about the young short stops and would you rather have Whit or would you rather have Gunner or Ellie? There's no shortage of candidates.

Since then, Bobby Witt Jr. has certainly made a case for himself as he's the one you would want. Not that Ellie has been a slouch or anything, but I mean he's been amazing lately too. But yeah Bobby Witt Jr. is now at the very top of the FanGraphs War leaderboard. He has surpassed Aaron Judge even and yeah that's gonna be quite an MVP race. We haven't had really interesting ones lately, it seems like. I know man, it's cool. Yeah, it is funny how like the best players are just clearly in the American League this year. You know, it's like you have to showhase fifth on the FanGraphs leaderboard

and he is tops in the NL just ahead of Elie De La Cruz and Ketel Marte, who's been fantastic himself lately. But yeah, that, that wit versus judge race is going to be a fun one. I don't know whether, I don't know whether like vote splitting among teammates is really as much of a thing as it's made out to be because obviously Soto is third on that leaderboard, although a full win behind Judge currently. But yeah, like I guess the case for Judge and Soto is sort of similar to the point where I don't know how you could really justify voting for Soto over Judge. Right, right. Yes. Judge has just been Soto but better, basically, like, you know, more important,

more difficult outfield position, even better at the plate. Whereas Witt, maybe you could make a case based on, you know, shortstop versus centerfield and really good shortstop versus competent centerfielder. And then like the speed, different skillset, stolen bases. So that'll be an interesting one. And, you know, if they both just finish on torrid streaks as they've been on, who knows where they'll end up. Nicole Forkess George Kirby was that year at Michael Harris. The second was that year and Stephen Kwan was that year and gosh, Spencer Strider was that

year. Vinny Pascuantino was that year. I don't know why I'm ending with emphasis on Vinny, like no disrespect Vinny or solid physical, but like of all the guys I named from 2022, you're not like at the top, which is fine. There's nothing wrong with being outpaced by some of these dudes. Yeah. That also does put into perspective the Jacksons that we were just talking about because they are all younger than Bobby Witt Jr. was as a rookie. It's unreal. It really is.

Jackson Merrill is the old man of the three, and he's 21. He turned 21 in April, and then the other guys are still 20. And I was talking about how young Holiday is. Jackson Churio is younger than Jackson Holiday. He was born March 2004 and Jackson Holiday was born December 2003. So, you know, that's a few months difference.

That makes what Churio is doing even more impressive. And Merrill, of course, is doing it with a position change to bullet, right? Just like being thrust into, you're a centerfielder now and skipping AAA. And you know, like that's no wonder he was learning on the job. He was like literally learning on the job. It's really incredible. It's the kind of thing that I think, you know, as folks are assembling their rookie of the year ballots, which like I don't have a rookie of the year. I don't have a vote of any kind this year. So I get to just say whatever I think about it.

It's so nice. Not violating any policies here, BBWAA. But it is the kind of thing that I think should factor for awards voters. It doesn't mean that, you know, I don't know what I think of that race or if he's the guy, but it's definitely should be part of the conversation because it's like really impressive. It's really impressive because it's like so hard to take up a new position and center field is so hard as we know. I am center field defense piled. I'm so many kinds of piled lately, Ben. It's like, it's that. I'm Christian Walker piled. I've been other, I'm just pills.

Anyway. We got an email from listener Kyle about a week ago who asked us to highlight the season that Churio is having because his numbers maybe don't jump off the page because of the slow start that he has, but that's hiding just how good he's been lately and he pointed out that yeah, he could end up having one of the best age 20 seasons of all time. I guess he's still a long way away from that. He's currently 52nd best age 20 season of all time. 28th if you limit to rookie age 20 seasons. That's ALNL only.

Mike Trout 2012, of course, at the top. This is just position players. So we'll see how high Churio can climb. I will just end by noting that there was one more cup or trophy that we neglected to mention last time when we were mentioning all the listeners submitted team rivalry awards. There's also the Ohio cup, also known as the battle of Ohio and the Buckeye series. So that's the Reds versus the guardians, but there is an actual physical Ohio cup. So sorry to neglect that one.

That's been handed out. I guess the initial Ohio cup started in 1989. The initial Ohio Cup started in 1989. And also we got an email from listener William who wanted us to note, and this was prompted by the death of Billy Beane of leukemia and gosh, we just mentioned leukemia at the start of this episode. So we're ending there also.

And William wrote in to say that you probably heard that Billy Beane, senior vice president of diversity, equity and inclusion and second MLB player to come out as gay died of acute myeloid leukemia, AML. On May 7th of this very year, my wife was diagnosed with the same disease. It's been a rough go of things,

but we're 12 days into a dual cord stem cell transplant meant to replace her leukemic bone marrow and jumpstart a new immune system entirely replacing the damaged one that she had, which is I guess what Logan Ohapi's dad did. And it worked for him. So I hope it will work for William's wife as well. And William says, for patients with leukemia, finding a perfect match is a remarkably low probability for a bone marrow transplant. Without being hyperbolic, there's a chance that you are the only person in the country who could match with someone in need. The National Marrow Donor Program will mail you a swab that you can return if you wish

to be added to the registry. The process takes about two months in total and you can potentially be the person who saves the life of a person with leukemia. And he wrote to us, if you're open to sharing that resource, you can use the link, bethematch.org to request your testing kit and join the registry. There are also opportunities to give financially

or volunteer through the website. So we will link to that site on our show page and best of luck to William and his wife. Yeah. And what do you know, just after we wrapped up there, I saw a tweet by Baseball Reference, for the first time in a major league season, they're more Jackson's first name than Jackson's last name.

A historic milestone, three Jackson last name players this year, five Jackson first name players. I didn't even mention Jackson Rutledge of the Nationals and Jackson Stevens of the Braves. Not that they would have affected that war total much. You can support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild. The following five listeners have already signed up and pledged some monthly or yearly

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