Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 221: Astros Pro Scouting Coordinator Kevin Goldstein on the Amateur Draft

Episode Date: June 11, 2013

Ben and Sam talk to Kevin Goldstein about the amateur draft, his scouting assignments, the Astros’ system, and more.

Are we trying to ambush journalism him? You know, let him know that we're looking at the Astros? We're studying. We have been looking at some Astros things, Kevin. I don't want to surprise you. Okay, that's fine. Yeah, I get it. Maybe I should look at some Astros things.

Good morning and welcome to episode 221 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Prospectus. I am Ben Lindberg, joined as always by Sam Miller, and we have a guest with us today. If you watched the first round of the amateur draft last Thursday and you saw the Astros' war room on TV, you may have seen our guest for a few moments not wearing a fedora for some reason, but he was in the war room. He was in the room where all the decisions were made. He is Kevin Goldstein, the pro scouting coordinator of the Houston Astros. Hello. You know, I wore the fedora on day two when I thought we needed a little more luck and you want some players to get to you. I wore it on day two. Okay, no one fedora on day two when I thought we needed a little more luck and you want some players to get to you.

I wore it on day two. No one was watching on day two. No, they took the camera down before. You were drinking. What were you? You were drinking something. What were you drinking on day one? It was just a Coke.

We had some Texas barbecue brought in before the draft. It was delicious. I was washing it down with a Coke. Okay. Can I start just with a really really probably a really dumb question that that i had and maybe other people would have we both have it's okay you guys weren't drafting any pro players so what was your role i i'm glad you asked that because you've led into a bit of a semi-rant i want to go not even a rant just a clarification

if you will. You're right. I head up the pro scouting department for the Houston Astros, pro. That said, one of the really great things about working here is that there is some overlap and we all get exposed to a lot of things. So, I mean, I have done some trips to Latin America to support Aza Campo on the international scouting front. And over the last month, I did do some trips around the country to support our scouting director, Mike Elias on the amateur front. And so, you know, I saw some players and I submitted some reports and then hopefully those reports were, you know, played a role in how we judge some players.

And so I was involved in the draft, but you know, it's, it's a little upsetting at times. It's almost kind of not draft. But, you know, it's a little upsetting at times. It's almost kind of not fair because, like, you know, Mike Elias, our scouting director, never had a podcast. You know, David Stearns, our assistant general manager, never wrote articles that were on the front page of ESPN. And so, you know, you see stuff like, you know, congratulations to Jeff and Kevin on a great draft. No, no, no, no, no. I mean, that decision, or the decision at 1-1 to take Mark Capel, I mean, that was made by Jeff, David, our AGM, Mike Elias, our scouting director,

and David Post, our national cross-checker, who's just, you know, I thought I knew a lot of great scouts, and then I met David. He's just fantastic, the guy I've learned a ton from. But, I mean, those are the four guys who made the decision. I was, if you see that, if you watch the draft coverage, the first shot of the room, you see all the area scouts and some of the administrative people and some other people and me sitting there.

And who you don't see in there is that quartet of people. You have Jeff, David, Mike, and David Post, who were making that decision at that time. You know, I didn't, I didn't make that decision. I gave my opinion and the decisions and as did all of our amateur scouts give their opinions. And I mean, they were the guys who were the ultimate decision makers. This was not like my draft. I was just thrilled to play a small part in it.

But I mean, to answer your question, that was it. I mean, over the last month I did, you know, do some traveling and go see some amateur guidance, submit some reports. And so, you know, uh we get everyone involved so all of our amateur scouts uh were flown in for the draft and you know you spend about three days going over all the players and then on thursday you'd pick them but i mean it was it was a real honor just to be a part of it and a lot of fun it's one of those things where when i was writing i always wanted to be in a draft room kind of a bucket list kind of thing uh and to actually do it was a real thrill just to even just be in the room and see it all

go down. All right. So stop giving Kevin credit for things, people. Yeah, it's very important. So what was that like? People on the Facebook page are hoping to hear fun draft stories or something from you. What was the atmosphere like? Was it as you expected, pretty much? The first day was definitely as you expected, or as I expected, at least. I mean, it was really exciting. And, you know, just really just a few minutes

before it was our pick, Jeff and Mike and David and David came in and Jeff put the magnet up of Marco Pell right below our logo and that's when we knew who we were taking. I mean, I knew maybe two and a half, three minutes before you guys knew who we were taking at 1-1. And as soon as he put it down, there was a lot of excitement and a lot of smiling faces in the room. And after that, we only had one more pick that day.

It's such a weird day. It's a long, long day and a a long night but you only get two dudes you know you're taking 40 guys in this draft but you know day one it's two dudes and so we took a pal and then it was about a three hour wait before pick 40 came around and so it kind of went as i expected because it's only one more pick and we have uh know, we have our magnets all on the board. We have guys we're hoping to get to 40, hoping that'll be there. And, you know, this group of players you're looking at. And when we got to 40, Andrew Thurman was the guy we really wanted and the guy we took. And then you're done for the day and you got your two guys.

And then the next day is when you draft eight rounds. It's three through 10. There's a little bit of time between picks. And that's a little more different than what i expected because really very few people are actually kind of paying attention to the draft on kind of a pick by pick basis if you will you know there's a couple people who are kind of in charge of the board and watching the picks and monitoring it on the computer there's like a like a running list that the teams get that shows all the picks you're tearing people are tearing magnets off the boards.

You know, we can't take that guy because someone else took him. And for the most part, everyone's having these pretty deep conversations about players. Like, this is who should we take here? Who should we take here? You know, with Sig involved, with all the great stat stuff he does. And then, obviously, his system plays a huge role in what we're doing here. And we're looking at that Sig's kind of rankings. We're looking at how the scouting people feel about it.

Is this who we want to take here? Is this who we want to take here? And by the time you're mostly done with that conversation, it's your turn and it's time to make a call, you know? And obviously we had the first pick of the second day. So that was something we had a lot of choice and a lot of time to just kind of settle on Kenton Manuel, the lefty from North Carolina. But, you know, fourth round, you're talking, you you got these guys who should we take who should make next thing you

know you're like three picks away and you go okay this is who we're taking but you don't kind of don't really pay much attention to those 24 picks you just kind of realize oh but we're close again so were there any moments like everyone listening has experienced in their fantasy draft where you're about to a couple times yeah everyone got snip a couple times. Yeah, everyone got sniped. And the funny thing is, is like, yeah, we got sniped a couple times, you know, between one and 40. And it's fun just because, I mean,

you guys have all been in your fantasy draft and someone takes that guy before you do and you get to look at him. And that happens in baseball. You know, he took a player and a front office guy from another team texted me and did with a with uh an epithet and yeah he's just like you took our dude and this was like way this was day three this is like you're way late they were getting ready to take this guy like you took our

guy i was like well you know i'm sorry and um so i mean it's and then i mean day three is crazy because it's 30 picks and it's just, it's rapid fire. Next thing you know, you're up again and you're, you know, you're looking at what you have. You also have, you know, we had Quinton McCracken, our farm director, and Alan Rowan, our assistant farm director in there, you know, with their spreadsheets of rosters. And like, you know, look, we have, you know, we're one of those teams with three short season teams. We have a Gulf Coast League team, an Appie League team, a team new york pen link team you're sitting there going yeah well we need a guy here we need we pick somebody because we need someone to play the outfield here we need someone to pitch here and so you know at times you get some some positional needs here and they're

gonna make sure you get a guy so we have a team and um but no it was super exciting it was fun to watch you know this whole process and you know guys who want to try to push their players. We still really like this guy. We want to get him. Should we take him here? Well, we could probably wait a couple more rounds and then ultimately get him. But I mean, for the most part, I mean, almost up and down.

Even when you get sniped, it's not like you're sitting there with just that one name written with lights all around him. You have kind of a group of magnets you're thinking about. And when someone takes that guy, you take the magnet off the board and you throw it in the box and you move on um but you know it's just amazing to watch and to think um i i think i tweeted this just you know all of the work that goes into all just all of the study of of the scouting information the performance information uh the makeup stuff and getting a sense of the kid and

his commitment to baseball, blah, blah, blah, on tons of players, just all these magnets. We only get 40 of them. And all the work that went into, for all of our amateur staff driving around all spring and submitting reports on all these players, 1180 or something of them went to other teams. We got 40. The efficiency of it all is kind of impressive. I was going to ask you about sort of the secrecy surrounding the Appel pick. As a former maker of mock drafts, I'm sure you appreciated it when the news kind of leaked out early because if you don't get that first pick,

then your whole mock draft is kind of screwed from the start. But I didn't realize that the secrecy was internal also. Do you know, I mean, do you have any sense of when that decision was made, even if it wasn't shared until a few minutes before the draft? I think it was made pretty late, guys. I mean, I really do. And I think it was a situation where, you know, we, there was a lot, there's obviously a lot to consider when you're talking about one,

one picks there's a lot to think about. And it, then there's considerations about player signability players, their ability to, to, you know, their, their scouting information, the statistical analysis, all that stuff. And so in the end, the decision came down pretty late, and you want to make sure that, you know, you're making the right decision, you're going to take as much time as you can to make that decision. So, I mean, it was made, I don't think it was made much before Jeff came in

and then put the magnet up on the board. And, you know, from doing the draft, doing or covering the draft last year, it was the same thing. I mean, we didn't know who the Astros were going to take until the very last minute. And I know a lot of people were surprised by it, including me. I mean, I was pleasantly surprised when they took Carlos Correa. And just because I mentioned that it might happen, I was happy.

But no one knew who they were going to take. And it and it is you know I think it's a specific thing that that is part of our plan as far as a kind of a an outreach thing it was made you know on Monday uh you know one of the first things we talked about in the meeting was that we're all dark now we're all going dark no talking to anybody about the draft from outside this room um and so it was part of the plan and that's, it's part of the, it's part of what we do. And so we go super secret. So I guess what is it? I mean, when you were at BP, I guess you wouldn't have necessarily considered yourself a scout.

You talk to scouts all the time and you went and saw games, but you, you talked to lots of scouts and you you collected that information and synthesized it and provided it to to people who read you but now anyone who follows you on facebook or twitter knows that you're on the road all the time as you mentioned you're filing reports on players so is there is there a point at which you can say well now i'm a scout is there like a moment when you file a report are you now officially a scout do you consider yourself i mean yes i do and um i mean i was hired and part of my responsibility was a scout player so yeah that's that's the

definition right i guess so did any of uh did any of the guys you filed a report on end up getting picked by the Astros? Yes. So that's fun. Yeah, it is fun. I mean, obviously. Unless you said, don't draft that guy. Yeah, don't draft that guy. I mean, you give all the credit to the area scout who first identifies him and submits the follow report.

But yeah, no, I did see some of the players that we did draft. And it was actually really fun to see them kind of become Houston Astros at least they'll become Houston Astros when they sign and yeah you're already kind of a little more invested in those guys like I remember him I saw him here and he did some good stuff and I turned him in pretty good and then we took him and yeah for sure it definitely was a different feeling. So has your – since you sort of got to the table, has the percentage of you that is focused on the negative of a draft prospect compared to what percentage of you is focused on the positive of the draft prospect changed? Did those words make sense? Not really. All right.

So let me put it this way. Did those words make sense? Not really. All right. So let me put it this way. So there's this part in Dollar Sign and the Muscle where he says that scouts are focused on the positive of a player. They see all the good that he can become. And coaches are focused on all the headaches they have to deal with the player, all the things that they have to work on and all the negatives of it. and all the negatives of it.

And, you know, I think different fans probably, some see a prospect and only see that he, you know, doesn't draw walks or can't hit a curveball, and others, you know, see that he's got a, you know, a carrying tool or something like that. And so I just wonder, were you a pessimist or an optimist before, and has it changed? I like to think I tried to just be a realist.

And so it hasn't changed. But, I mean, mean i don't i'm not sure that that kind of assumption applies to to our scouts um i mean our scouts are really realistic and and you know they're good and they're realistic about what guys can be and you know we talk about players ultimate ceiling but you know we actually often and especially after you get past the first few rounds you're talking uh much more about kind of a player's most likely destination you know this guy's probably going to be a fourth outfielder this guy's probably going to be a seventh inning reliever this guy's probably going to be a back of the rotation starter now he's a chance to be a number three starter or a chance to be an everyday player a chance to be a late inning high leverage reliever but realistically is probably not um you know we do talk a lot about variability

and you know there are all sorts of things about players we take that we can't predict and we have to be able to accept the fact that we can't predict how players will change uh all we can do predict is that they will change and so uh you know I don't think I've changed the way I look at players. I think I try to see the good and the bad in everybody. I try to see what's really good about a guy and what's some things to work on. When it was your job to write about the draft and some stupid editor like me would say, hey, write something about who had a good draft and who had a bad draft the day after the draft about the players that we won't see for five years and we won't know how the draft turned out.

That was probably not your favorite part of the job, trying to pick winners and losers on the day of or the day after. Do you feel like you have a better ability to assess that now that you have seen some of these players and have read reports on all of these players can you look back and say we had a good draft i'm happy with what we did or are you still kind of like well we'll wait and see i guess both i mean i mean i am really happy with our draft i was really happy with who we took and i'm happy with the um with the whole draft class if you will and your judge as a whole really happy with who we took. And I'm happy with the whole draft class, if you will, and your judges as a whole. I'm really happy

with who we took and some of the players we got. But, I mean, you're right. No, we won't know for three, four, five years. We have no idea how to judge this draft. And we're really happy with what we have and the chances of some of these players to be an important part of our future. And that's, if you have that, you've got to feel pretty good.

And I know that, you know, as a whole, the room felt really good about where we are and where we ended up and oh come on oh he's safe i'm sorry i'm watching the astros and um and so so i mean we're happy about what we have but no you're right i mean all these guys are going to you know obviously i i feel strongly and we feel strongly we're going to sign the majority of these guys. They'll get going during the second half of the year. And next year, they'll all start in the minors probably. And you'd go from there. But yeah, you don't know.

I mean, they could change in dramatic ways. And some of them could turn out to be far better than even we anticipated. And some are certainly going to turn out worse than we anticipated. So yeah, we could be excited about what we have right now, but we don't really know what we have. So what about for fans who have a tendency to, you know, also not have much useful information at this point, far less than you, and yet want to have strong opinions and want to feel something?

They want to feel alive. You know, they want to have some emotion about everything that comes before them. So what is the appropriate way to process this draft if you're a fan? What is the best thing a fan can do to have some understanding of whether their team did good or did bad? Well, I mean, we had the first pick in the draft. So hopefully, we've got a really important player there. Guys can make an impact for our future. And we think Marco Pell is that kind of player. you know you look down the list and you think about what we got and we say to ourselves like you know i think a lot of these guys are going to make the big leaguers or we can make the big leagues are going to you know play and and play a role on our team you're predicting exactly what every one of these guys is going to do is is kind of a fool's errand um other than the

you know you basically you're buying chances you know you're you're drafting chances this guy's got we don't can't tell you exactly what it is this guy's got x percent chance to to you know be an important part of our future and you try to just add up all those chances and say in the end what that all adds up to is a pretty good number um and we should get something pretty good out of this draft class i think we will get something good at this draft class just like i think we'll get something really good uh you know out of our 2012 draft class after you know a year later and seeing where some of these players are and what some of them have done we can look we can go this is going well you know we still shouldn't change it because none of them are in the big leagues yet but so far so good this is going well um and you know you have faith in who you have you have faith

in the process you have faith in sig's work you have faith in our scouts, you have faith in who you have. You have faith in the process. You have faith in Sig's work. You have faith in our scouts' work. You have faith in Jeff. You have faith in Mike Elias. And they say, this is going well. And we're going to get the right players here. So you're saying don't feel anything. No, no. Feel good about the future.

I mean, our system is really good. I think our system is really good. I think we have one of the best minor league systems in all of baseball right now. I think we just had a really good draft I think we have one of the best minor league systems in all of baseball right now. I think we just had a really good draft that's going to add to it. I don't think it's any sort of secret that we'll probably add some prospects between now and the trade deadline. You know, we are bringing in young talent. We're trying to create a pipeline of young talent. And that's the goal of the organization right now is, build these processes so that we are always in

it so that we're always a good team. And, you know, if we're closer to that at the end of the year, and then we've made significant progress in all those areas, we're going to feel pretty good about where we are. So when you, when you would have a guest on, on up and in, you would ask them to, to plug their product or, or wherever you could find their work. So I guess, so, so your product is, is the Astros, I guess. So, so just go to astros.com. So, so plug, plug some Astros. What, what, what Astros should we be excited about right now? What, what, what prospects are not getting talked about that, that you would, that you would talk about if you were still podcasting? Yeah, I got to tell you, I mean, one of the really great things about our system right now,

something that I know we're really excited about is, you know, if you looked at our prospects, if you look at Jason's prospect list for us, all of our prospects have, and this is rare, have either lived up to expectations or exceeded them. You know, nobody's really kind of crashed and burned, and that's rare. Usually you have a few prospects who kind of fall off the map, and that's just part of the game. I mean, as you guys know, the attrition rate is pretty brutal.

But we've had, you know, everyone's lived up to expectations, and some have exceeded them, and some have really, you know, come on strong. Think about George Springers. I believe he's still leading, unless I missed about three days of games here. I believe he's still leading the minor leagues in home runs. He's 18 last I checked, and he's made a lot of progress at AA because not only is he hitting these home runs,

he's been flirting with 300 all year. So he's starting to hit for average as well. We just got John Singleton going just after the suspension to start the year, and he's at AA, a guy who has a chance to at least earn a look in Houston this year. Mike Fulton-Evich has taken a gigantic step forward. He's become a guy who has just found all this new velocity. You know, a guy who, you know, we were very excited about a guy with a plus fastball and super athletic

with a good delivery. Now all of a sudden he's touching a hundred nearly every time out and, you know, some of the best raw stuff in the minors. And so, you know, time and time again, you know, every night, someone's doing a good thing. Carlos Correa got off to a little bit of a slow start in April and had a monstrous May at like three 40. And this is a kid who's one of the youngest kids in the league. And people don't appreciate how young he is and how, how of ahead of the development curve is so I mean we have a lot

a lot of players to be excited about we've guys we're going to see possibly this year we've already started to see some guys this year guys that I think a lot of people didn't know you know Paul Clemens has done Yale men's work for us out of the big league bullpen you know doing some long work for us doing really good fastball. And he's got obviously some things to work on, but he's got the stuff to succeed in the big leagues. And we've been able to see a few players come up and get some jobs done for us out of the bullpen. And we're going to be calling on some more players, I'm sure,

as the season goes on. So we're already starting to see some stuff. We're going to see more next year, more the year after that. And we think we're kind of at this point where we can start constantly improving and get to where we want to be. Well, I'm sold. So how much are we missing, me and Sam and all the poor people on the Internet who don't have the ability to read scouting reports? have the ability to read scouting reports because you read the consensus among the prospect people and they'll tell you the same thing, that the Astros have a really good system and it's made great strides and they're not looking at reports. They're just talking to scouts and watching

players and telling us what they think. And that kind of matches what you're saying. So I'm always curious about how close we're getting, just kind of the opinion of these scouts filtered through Jason and Keith Law and Jim Callis and, you know, the people who do what you used to do. How close are we looking at a prospect list? How close are those sort of respected internet prospect lists to a team's internal prospect list? Well, I think the key word is consensus and that's what you're looking at is the consensus and and um you know the consensus is not us you know that's not how we necessarily see it um to talk internally about the guys i mean obviously way more information every morning we get a report from all the minor league games and

you see what each player did and notes on you know every at bat what they did well and what they did not do well and what they're working on um you know before and after games and things like that if you wanted to to review all that and when we do have it all you know internalized you can see every note we've written about a player all year in chronological order you can get like basically a really long diary of this player's development. And so we have a ton of internal information on all these guys. I can tell you what any of our pitcher stuff was in every single appearance. And I can break down nearly every at-bat he's had. I'm just bragging now.

No, I'm just saying we have that. But you are talking to Jason. You're getting these consensus. And consensus is good. Crowdsourcing can be really valuable when it comes to ranking prospects, but at the same time, we have our scouts that we trust, and there are players that are – I know that there are players that are really, really high

on everybody's prospect list for a certain team, and we have them in really, really low because our scouts have seen them and really don't like them. And on the other side, we have scoutsouts we have players who you know we've identified as really good and top targets from other teams that have barely sniffed a prospect list players people haven't even heard of um that would be among our top targets if we had some sort of trade talks with those teams so i mean there's a lot of variability so there's a lot of variability here and you know you got to trust what you have

you got to trust your process and your scouts and how you are ranking guys um because ultimately that's you know that's what you're going to base your decisions off of i guess do you ever miss the ability to just pick up the phone and call the other team's scouts like you used to and get their perspective too i mean you can't do that anymore you used to be able to do that and just talk to anyone and find out what they think. And now it's all you guys and kind of almost like an echo chamber, I guess, a crowded echo chamber with a lot of smart people in it. But you can't. Yeah, we'll take it.

No, I mean, no, no. I mean, there's some people I don't really talk to as much as I used to. And there's a lot of people I've still stayed in touch with, despite the fact they work for another team. You talk about other stuff where you just make jokes at each other. And so, you know, you just don't ask about what they think about a player because you can't do that. But no, I don't miss that at all.

I'm yeah. I believe me. I'm very, very happy. I mean, I try to be a jerk here i just i i you know i love my old life i don't miss my old life i'm i i i couldn't be more happy with how things have been going with the astros i think i missed the podcast um the show i did with jason that's all i miss i don't miss writing i don't miss dealing with the two editors of that place which were just two and so I had a great time there but now I'm having the time of my life I'm a

very very lucky person to be doing what I'm doing I'm out of questions I have one listener email question that I want to read we got it before we announced that you were coming on or anything but Brian asked a draft question that I don't really know how to answer. Uh, he said, as we often see during the rule for drafts, several teams selected sons or nephews of current or former players. Uh, he named some examples. If you had to draft a person sight unseen based

solely on his genealogy from what gene pool would you select your player would you go after the offspring of a clear superstar like miguel cabrera clayton kershaw or would you dip into a gene pool that has produced multiple major league players like the molinas or the boons i would just i would just want bo jackson's kid like sight unseen bo jackson's kid but i just found out this weekend that bo jackson had like nine brothers and sisters and you've never heard of any of them that's interesting yeah i just it's i mean he's like he's still the best athlete i've ever seen on a baseball field it's a funny question i mean i don't know and it's a good it's a good question

and the other funny thing is is that you know everybody focuses so much on the guy's dad, and the guy's dad played baseball. And for a lot of players, and this stuff does kind of matter when you get a sense for the athleticism. A lot of the players, like the mom played college basketball, or the mom ran track in college. The mom was a pro tennis tennis player a noble play you know a guy who has that situation you know your genes are uh come from two people and so you got

to look at both all right and at least you you're pretty sure you know who the mom is you might not actually know that's a good point too you feel good about that one have we are we close to the to the dna testing portion of the pre-jeft preparation are we close to that era i i i don't even want to think about that okay we won't make you think about it uh all right well we we had you on episode 100 and i think we we said we'd leave you this is 220 500 think we said we'd leave you. What number was this? 500. Yeah, we said we'd leave you alone until 500, I think, and we made it about a quarter of the way. This is 221.

What number is this? 221. Oh, man. Well, you guys have more than doubled Jason and I now. Yes, although in terms of time, we've probably not come close. I'll give you a 12% maybe. Yeah. All right.

Well, thank you for joining us again. And maybe we'll leave you until 500 this time. Okay, so I'll talk to you in like a few minutes. Right. Well, it's good for people to hear your voice just to dispel the rumors of your demise that have been making the rounds on other podcasts. Yeah, that's a good point. Okay. All right.

Well, Kevin is alive and well. He graciously joined us, and we thank him and wish you all the best with continuing the rebuilding effort. Thanks, guys.