Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2236: The 2024 World Series Preview

Episode Date: October 25, 2024

Meg Rowley and guest co-host Craig Goldstein, editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus, discuss the passing of Fernando Valenzuela, and his importance to both the Dodgers and baseball more generally. Then they preview the 2024 World Series between the Dodgers and the Yankees. They detail the relative strengths and weaknesses of both teams, breaking down the lineups, […]

Well, it's moments like these that make you ask, How can you not be horny about baseball? Every take, hot and hotter, entwining and abutting, Watch him climb, dig, and mount it, Nothing's about nothing, every stitch, wet with sweat, Breaking balls back, dormy on, Effectively, wow, that can you not be horny? When it comes to podcasts, how can you not be horny? When it comes to podcasts, how can you not be horny? Hello and welcome to episode 2236 of Effectively Wild, a FanGraphs baseball podcast brought

to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Raulia of FanGraphs and I am joined today by editor in chief of baseball prospectus, Craig Goldstein. Craig, how are you? What did I say? I think I'm how I'm gonna put this like, you know how they described Freddie Freeman as medicated after his first playoff game? That's where I am. Lauren Henry That's uh, that's good. Hopefully you have both of your feet. Craig Goldstein My ankles are fine. I have a light cold. Lauren Henry Yeah, it's the time of year that comes for all of us. I'm waiting for my colds to hit. I tend to get sick right after the playoffs end.

It's like my body is like, we have an understanding. And then- We pulled out through a certain period and then collapsed. Yeah, and then it gets to the point of exhaustion and it collapses and I have to be like, but wait, I have to edit the top 50 free agent posts. And my body's like, look lady, we gave you as long as we could. There are no more days without colds to be had. The purpose of this episode is to preview the world series, which starts tomorrow.

We're going to do that for the bulk of our conversation here, kind of go through unit by unit and talk about strengths and weaknesses. But before we do that, in the time between when I last recorded an episode and today, we got the sad news that Fernando Valenzuela had passed away. We weren't around for Fernando mania, but you know, he was a really important player and a really important person to the game and we just wanted to take a moment to pause and like acknowledge that because what a, what a career in life that guy had. The thing for me is like you said we're a little young I was a little young for for the peak of his powers certainly his his rookie year

we were not alive but he's not someone he's kind of an interesting figure in baseball history because he's not really a hall of Famer. I think you can make a case, right? Like you can construct something, but it's going to rely on, I think, the thing that makes him interesting, which is kind of, he's bigger than the Hall of Fame, right? He's bigger than his career numbers are going to be. He was a remarkable player on the field and he'd have to be to do what he did. But I just recorded another podcast for BP, but I was saying there, I kind of always took for granted the notion that a lot of LA's Hispanic or Latino communities were Dodgers

fans because of the location, obviously being in Southern California, close to Mexico. And specifically, they've always had a lot of Mexican fans in my mindset. But it's always to me because Fernando preceded me, right? Like, he really caused that. And obviously there was a lot of tension between those communities and the Dodgers. And Eric Nussbaum has detailed that beautifully in his book book Stealing Home. LS. Wonderful book. CB.

Wonderful. I should point out. Fernando established that, right? It's not the case without him. And again, I had taken that for granted for a significant portion of my life, but it really was him that caused that allegiance that opened those doors to, I guess, a reconciliation of some sort between those communities and, and the team, certainly not for everyone, but for him to do that. And again, like we've talked about certain players moving the needle,

Shoay Otani, certainly in terms of tickets sold and things like that. I know Rob Arthur did did some studies for us based on his starts, like his pitching starts and things like that. I know Rob Arthur did some studies for us based on his starts, like his pitching starts and things like that. I think Rob found, I'm going off memory, but it was around 3,000 tickets more per Ohtani start. If you look, people have done this for Fernando. It is dramatically more. I think it was 8,000 more for home starts and I don't remember the number on the road, but it was a significant figure on the road as well. He was an absolute tour de force. KS Yeah, it's one of those things where in some ways, like the contribution is so all encompassing

and obviously he had done a long career as a broadcaster that to confine it to the Hall of Fame feels silly. But it's like, if you're ever going to make a case for a guy in terms of the fame piece of it and sort of impact on the game beyond the field, that's when it starts to shift, I think, into like no doubt territory. The game will be poor for his absence and sad to have him go. We'll link to Rob's piece, because I think the idea that one guy can make the difference and sort of be the impetus for that kind of community building and fan-based building, especially in an instance where there is very good reason for fracture, you know, it's kind of remarkable just how much one person's play can

kind of move the needle on these things. So I don't have a very smooth transition from the sadness of a passing to the World Series, but... Pete Slauson Can I make an attempt? Anna Slauson Yes, please. Pete Slauson Well, two things. One, I think it's really nice that the Dodgers finally, and I would note belatedly, retired his number last year and he was alive to enjoy that appreciation, which he absolutely deserved. So first and foremost, I think I'm just really glad that he got to be alive for that. And then the transition would be, you know, they will be wearing patches in his honor during the World Series and all the way through 2025.

Yeah, I really like it when teams do that. And as you mentioned, through the World Series, which starts tomorrow, we're recording on Thursday, the 24th. And before we get into the nitty gritty on these teams and what they can and can't do and how they match up, how are you feeling, Craig? Aside from congested, I honestly feel okay. I'm going to be just, yeah, I'll just be forthright about my emotional state throughout this playoffs, which is that, and I don't know that I would have expected this necessarily, but the Padres series was kind of the most important to me.

And not because I hate the Padres. I actually very much enjoy the Padres. It's a narrative, I guess, thing for me, is that I know that the Dodgers have had good teams, right? The last several years, the last decade, whatever. But the narratives that I would have encountered, and they would have in many ways earned had they been dispatched by the Padres for the second time in three years and the one year that it wasn't, it was the

Diamondbacks, is just something that would have grated on me. I really didn't want to go through that version of reality. And so it was really, and I want to be clear, I also thought they were done when it was two to one San Diego. I was not someone who was thinking like, oh, they're, they're coming back from this. No. I was dreading it. Once they did complete that comeback and they got to the NLCS, I am extremely emotionally invested in, in the outcomes of the games and I'm very nervous while the games are happening. But in general, I can't view one step from the World Series a failure, right?

Oh, sure. If they lost to the grimace Mets and like the Mets were just on a gimmicky journey that worked out, you know, that was amazing. Like, fine, I, you know, sometimes you can't fight the universe, right? I just would have been able to, I would have been sad. I wouldn't have loved it, but I could live with it. And, and I feel that way about the Yankees. Obviously, I want to beat the Yankees. They're, they're the Yankees, but I can't view getting into the World Series as, as some sort of failure. And I know a lot of people can and do, but I can't. And so I'm not as distraught as I kind of was during the Padres series. You sound very calm, but that might be cold medication.

Is the degree of calm that you experienced directly correlated to Joe Kelly's presence on the active roster? How much of a role does Joe Kelly play in your psyche on any given day? Yeah, I think another part of the column here is Dave Roberts has been good. Yeah, I agree. And maybe that is directly correlated to the amount of Joe Kelly on the roster, right? He doesn't have him to go to. And I think that's honestly part of why he's been good, not Joe Kelly specifically, but

like, as good as he's been, and I'm not trying to discredit him, the choices he's had to make have generally been pretty straightforward. That hasn't stopped him in the past. No. But they still have been relatively straightforward in that sense. So I am weirdly calm about kind of this situation. I want it very badly for a number of reasons, but also, I don't know, maybe part of it's,

there's no great teams, right? Like this, I don't feel like they're head and shoulders above, right? This year, which I think they have been other years and they've just been terrible. That really eats at me, but I don't think they're head and shoulders above, generally speaking.

And so I don't know. I think that your instinct about it just generally is right. And it's borne out by our like our Zips game-by-game odds as of this morning and you know these things can move around a little bit as you know rosters move and whatnot but right now 50-50 exactly between the Yankees and the Vatres. Yeah gotta get the ground game going in Wisconsin. The broader playoff environment was fairly balanced. There weren't any super teams. There were definitely teams with more obvious and

potentially sort of fatal to their chances weaknesses than others, but I thought the field in general was fairly well balanced. Lots of good stuff, lots of this could be the thing that sends them home. I have been quite pleased with how Dave Roberts has managed. I don't know that there's been a ton of like really egregious managing. I mean, I think you could probably pick your knits with how Mendoza like pulled guys versus not on the pitching side. But in general, I don't think there's been anything that's been so horrific. And yeah, Roberts has seemed to avoid, you know, there's just times in the past where he's been a little too cute, you know, he just times in the past where he's been a little too cute you know he's maybe gotten a little too

cute been a little too clever by half and I think that when confronted with straightforward stuff he's just like done doing good stuff which hasn't meant that everyone's been able to execute all the time but I think that the choices that he's made have been defensible from like a process perspective you know I think the biggest thing he's done is when he left Jack Flaherty to die in game five. And I didn't understand that because it was a three to one game when that inning started and everyone knew

Jack Flaherty had nothing. And he just sent him back out there for a third inning. And even that I understand, right? He's trying to steal some outs. And I get it. But like, you could have won that game potentially. The team ended up scoring six runs. Like it didn't have to be over.

But, you know, he also set up fairly decently a game six win by not using the bullpen, right? Like he managed to do that. So, you know, it all kind of balances out. And some of it is just bullpen, right? Like he managed to do that. So, you know, it all kind of balances out. And some of it is just results driven, right? Like how it ends up actually playing out. Right. Sure. So, yeah. And even, again, like you're saying, with Mendoza, they didn't have the bullpen

to do what Dave Roberts is doing with, or what Stephen Voigt did throughout that series. And you could go to the Phillies series, but what do you do when your extremely good bullpen just collapses? Every single guy he called upon was bad. So yeah, I think you're right. Not really a huge managerial mistake kind of playoffs this year. Yeah. And I don't think even much in the way of controversy, right? I mean, I know that every fan base of a team that has been eliminated, I'm sure has knits that they want to pick or stuff that they took issue with,

but there hasn't been a, why did you pull Blake Snell when you did kind of moment in this post season? And I appreciate that because we love to be spared discourse, there's so much of it. Well, Craig, let's dive in on these teams. Do you have, I figured we talk about, we talk about lineups, we talk about starting pitching, we talk about the bullpens. I feel like we need to talk about fielding if only because boy did the Yankees play a very sloppy ALCS. Although some of my perception of their sloppiness is also related to poor base running,

which I think I'm kind of mentally lumping together. But let's start with these lineups. I don't want to give short shrift to Judge and Otani and Soto and Betz, but I also like, what more is there to say, really? You know, what more can what we have run so many pieces we are at the point where we are struggling to find new photos in our photo service and that's shocking because I think that 90% of our photo service is just pictures of Judge and Otani but it would be ridiculous to not talk about the the judge and Otani and Betts and Soto of it all. So I guess I'm gonna ask you a very unfair question which is which of these lineups would you prefer to have if you were about to manage the

World Series? Yeah it is an unfair line. I don't think there's a particularly wrong answer. I think these are both very good teams. I would take the Dodgers. And it's possible I'm being, I have some bias in that. But just to be clear, like when I say there's no wrong answer, when I'm looking at our preview that Ginny Searle wrote for this morning, like we have a little table at the top, the Yankees had the best DRC plus overall. They were number one, 116. Dodgers were second at 112. The Dodgers were first versus lefties, second versus righties. The Yankees were second versus lefties and first

versus righties. They're really very good. And I think, you know, I might be giving short shrift, as you said, to Soto and Judge. They're the two best sitters in baseball. But when I look at the depth, I like the Dodgers a little bit more, but it's absolutely reasonable to say like those two are so overwhelming that you just like you've got to take them. Yeah. And, you know, just to sort of reiterate the point, I mean, WRC plus tells basically the same story, slightly reverse, but the Dodgers had a 118 WRC plus as a team this year. New York was 117. That number comes down considerably if you take out, uh, Judge and Soto.

Um, but still an above average lineup, even with some guys who've, who've had their struggles. Um, but I think to your point, like that's sort of the difference for me. It's not that there aren't guys who can hit on the Yankees beyond Judge and Soto, but they haven't necessarily always been doing it consistently. I think that Stanton will probably continue his Ruthian ways as the postseason progresses here, but when you look at the cast of characters,

like second to that. Yeah, he's gotta go toe to toe with Enrique Hernandez. Well, this is the thing, you know? the two boppers, just like you expect those two guys, the best two dudes, the babes Ruth, the babes Ruth. Um, but you know, you look at, I think particularly Max Muncie, you look at what's the Oscar Hernandez has been able to do, you know, who could forget NLCS MVP Tommy Edmonds? That's right.

11 RBI. That's right. Yeah. Will Smith is the only catcher who seems to have remembered how to hit even a little bit and even still only a little bit. Really little bit. Really a little bit, but he's had a better go of it of late than say Austin Wells has. So I think that you're right that the depth behind those guys at the top on

the Dodger side, there's just a little bit more of it. I think that they have the ability to mix and match on the defensive side a little more comfortably, right? Like we've seen them making like eight substitutions with Keir Meyer. I just think that there's greater versatility there, even if compared to some of the prior dodger years, Craig, a slightly lighter group overall than what we may have seen from from past iterations of this team. Yeah, and I think if people want to get into like a little bit more detail on stuff like this, I'm just looking and you want to go past either WRC plus or DRC plus or whatever, which is kind of a catch all offensive metric, like just I'm looking at the walk.

We have, we have these for our game previews, these, these, uh, color coded things about like kind of gets red, you know, red or if they're, if it's a more above league average and blue or if it's below, and I'm just looking at like walk rate for the Dodgers lineup. Uh, and we have Enrique in center in the first one, I'm just guessing, but that's, that's I'm guessing Freeman will play. It sounds like he will. Uh. And so he'll be in center instead of someone like Pahes. But if that's the case, the Dodgers have two players or sorry, three players total with a below average walk rate in their lineup. The Yankees have a total of four above so they have

five at league average or below it. You know, there are little things like that. The Dodgers have three guys that are well above the league average walk in Freeman, Muncie, and Betts. Otani is very close. The Yankees really only have Judge and Soto. Now, Judge and Soto are elite at that. But you can kind of do the same thing with home run rate. There's a lot of above average and some really above for the Dodgers. For thekees. Certainly Judge Soto Stanton are well above. After that it's Jazz Chisholm and that's kind of it, right? So like there are, it just, there's more ways to kind of get at opposing pitchers for the Dodgers.

Whereas the guys who do it for the Yankees just kind of do it better than anyone. I think that that's a good way to think about it when I'm thinking about sort of the versatility of that lineup and the way the various ways that they can get on base. You know, neither of these teams is like particularly good from a base running perspective in the aggregate but then you have, was it you who was remarking on how the Dodgers are composed of guys who you think should be fast but are in fact slow and then guys you think should be slow but are in fact fast. Yeah. So I said this. So for what it's worth, like we have the Yankees as the worst base running team in baseball for our metric, DRB. The Dodgers were fourth, which is kind of surprising, but they're not like fast. It's not... Even like Tommy Edmond

is probably like the fat... Well, Shohei Otani is the fast guy on the Dodgers, which is he's and we know he's fast, but he's faster than he should be. Right. Like, that's one of the weird things. But in general, yeah, Tommy Edmond, especially this year. Last year, he was he was fairly fast if you're looking at like sprint speed. But this year, I think he's in the 60 something percentile. Miguel Rojas is, you know, he's a shortstop. You kind of think, well, he's got to be something,

not remotely fast. Mookie is, people talk about, and I think this is what made me think of it, is he like didn't beat out a double play. He never beats out a double play. He's not, he's not, he's a great base runner. Freddie Freeman is a great base runner. These guys are not fast.

Gavin Lux is not that fast, right? Like anyone at any of these positions are just, they're always slower down the line than they think. Now they're positioned really well, they get good jumps, things like that, but they're just not, straight speed is not a quality this team really has outside of Otani. Yes. Although I think you're right to draw the distinction between being a fast guy and a good base runner because like our base running metrics largely agree

with you guys, we had the Dodgers tied for fourth with the Cubs in terms of BSR, which isn't just looking at steals, but you know, advancements on balls hit and avoiding, you know, double plays and all of that. And yeah, the Yankees dead last and meaningfully in the red, um, as a, as a team and not all of that is Stanton, but some of it is him, but they also, you know, like you're not looking at Anthony Rizzo going burner, he's a burner out there, you know, I don't know why you'd

say it that way. Like you're Brian Cox doing a BK ad read. But yeah. Oh please, it's McDonald's. How dare you. Is it McDonald's? Who does? You're right. He does McDonald's. I'm loving it. He's loving it. Ba ba ba ba ba. Yeah. But yeah, I think that this is an area where, you know, I would take probably LA just from a depth perspective, but you know, when you do get to put Soto and Judge up there, it's pretty nice. Do you think at all, care at all, worry at all about perceived slumpiness in the postseason

to date entering the World Series for any of these guys? Do you put any stock in that or do you think that it's just a coincidental bit? Or has Judge not been able to play in New York all along and it only manifests in very inconvenient moments? Pete Slauson I don't really put a ton of stock into it, which isn't to say I don't believe it could be a factor or it doesn't exist, but like I'm so removed, we're so removed from anything that could actually provide any insight that it's just too hard for me to tell. Yeah, maybe sometimes the moment is too big for someone. I struggle to believe that applies to Aaron Judge.

Sure. I'm being a little jerk. No, no, for sure. I'm just saying like, but I do think like, and I'm not saying I think this is the case with say Austin Wells, who has really struggled, right? Like, but Austin Wells is a rookie. Like maybe he is finding this a lot all of a sudden, right? I kind of don't think that's the case. I think guys get, you know, you're facing better pitching, you're, you're tired. It's the end of a season. He's caught a lot like, you know, he's a very good player. I don't think it's suddenly left him now that it's the playoffs, but is it possible guys press and put too much pressure on themselves and that gets worse as things build? Absolutely. But we also saw, you know,

what everyone was making in Mookie Betts, oh, for his last 22 in the playoffs, even though that crossed three separate series, you know, whatever. And then all of a sudden he was the hottest hitter in baseball or in the playoffs for the end of that Padres series, right? Like he went from, Provar robbed him, that was oh, for 22 or whatever it was, 0 for 21 in the thing. And then he had his first setbacks the next two games with home runs. So again, is it possible?

Absolutely. I'm not going to sit here and tell you someone's mentality doesn't matter. It absolutely does. I tend to think these guys, most of these guys, and especially the stars, have had their mentality tested, right? To the point that like the postseason skid is something that will continue in perpetuity, right? But we don't look at like Stanton hitting like he does in October or Hernandez hitting like he does in October, at least relative to how he produces during the regular season and go, well, they're going to stop any day now. Right. The, the, we,

we ascribe like momentum or inertia to these things. And I don't, I don't quite know that that's how it works. I mean, not you and I, and not really our listeners, but it does ice bear addressing our beautiful and handsome listeners. You know better. Let's, uh, let's move on to, to starting pitching because I will tell you, Craig, I was amazed by how much this didn't end up being a problem for the Dodgers in their March to the World series. I hope this doesn't hurt your feelings, but I expected them to get bounced and I expected them to get bounced because of the state of their rotation such as it

is, which is mostly just Flaherty, Yamamoto, and Bueller, the last of whom I had very little confidence in coming into the postseason. And he didn't do a lot to reinforce what confidence I did have in the early going. He looked better as things went on. I'm shocked this didn't sink them. Hey, good job. Good job, you guys. Yeah.

I mean, I, you know, I had nothing to do with it But but certainly they did a good job the thing with these guys and I mostly I'm talking about Flaherty and and Yamamoto here Is that like you can absolutely get good starts out of them? Sure I think you're absolutely right to look at Walker Bueller and be like boy I just don't know just don't know or maybe I do know and I don't like it is more is maybe more where that falls Yeah, the the Walker Bueller that they got in the NLCS that falls more into a guy of I just don't know Right if that guy comes out, I mean he had no idea where anything was going, but he could miss a bat I mean that was new. Yeah

That was exciting and different Because he really couldn't in right, I mean, in the regular season nor in the NLDS. So I don't know, I mean, we still don't know what they're going to get. And even if he's the good version of Bueller that we saw in the NLCS, he went four innings. Now they were better innings, but he went six in the NLDS, right? And he didn't miss any bats, but he also, yes, he gave up six runs in the second. A lot of that was on the defense or on Machado's, you know, Hetty or whatever you want to call

it, his base running. Miguel Rojas made a huge mistake that inning. It's hard for me to put that all on him. And he still managed to eat a bunch of innings in that game. Now, they were maybe a little bit different. I was going to say different stress, but they came back and it was within a run. Pretty quickly. So I don't know. I don't know what to make of him. I wouldn't expect. I don't know. I wouldn't expect more than four innings.

Right. I think this lineup is also and look, I spent the meth series talking about how good that lineup is because it is a good Lineup this one's probably better and not not just because of Soto and judge I think I don't want to backtrack into lineups too much. I do think this lineup poses more problems for the Dodgers not just because of Soto and judge or or even Stanton, but there are a lot more because of Soto and Judge or even Stanton. But there are a lot more left-handed options for the Yankees and the Mets. The Mets had some to make it a relatively balanced lineup, but Mendoza didn't use it until the last game or two.

He was not using Jeff McNeil. He was not using Jesse Winker for most of that series. Whereas from the start, you're going to see obviously Soto's lefty, Well's, Chisholm, Rizzo, Verdugo. And all of a sudden that makes Alex Vesia, whether he's healthy and or even avail, you know, what percentage of healthiness he is a big factor. But I also just think it's going to be harder for someone like Bueller, who if he's going to get swings and misses, he's probably better suited to get it from righties because he has the slider, his sweepers, his best pitch that's harder to throw to lefties. So that all of a sudden becomes

a much more of a grind to me in terms of how this very right-handed Dodgers pitching staff, and I don't mean just the rotation, you know, navigates this lineup. We'll get into the bullpen in a little bit here, but you don't, you mean to say that you don't want Anthony Banda to be their only left handed reliever? I really don't. And look, I like Anthony Banda, but yeah, sure. But no, that would be tough. And the thing is Vessia doesn't even really have platoon splits.

Like he's not a lefty killer, so to speak. He's just a good pitcher. But some of these guys are worse against lefties than they are against righties. So. Right. Yeah. On the Yankees side of things, you know, obviously they're going with Cole, Rodin, Schmidt and Heal. What is your impression of Yankees pitching, at least on the starting side, Ben, this postseason? Because they've obviously been able to get the job done. Some of these starts have been better than others. I will say that Lake Carlos-Rodon has looked better to me than I imagined he would. But I feel like we still haven't seen a super dominant Garrett Cole start.

Then Schmidt and Heal have been good for stretches, looked shakier at other times. What has your general impression of that group been? Yeah, I think they're a little spotty, right? And I consider them still to be at a significant advantage over the Dodgers in this capacity, not just because they have four pitchers. I mean, Lewis Heal was one of the best pitchers in baseball the first six to eight weeks, right?

Yes. But he's always walked a lot of guys. And I think that when we talk about navigating lineups, I think that's gonna be really tough. This is a very disciplined Dodgers team. Yes. And so it can be tough. I think, I guess the flip side is some of this is going to come down to the umpires, which no one wants to hear or think.

But if they have a big zone for a Luis, he'll start suddenly things become different. Right. And if they have a small zone for basically any of them, I think that can, again, we talked about the walk rates for the Dodgers, like that can tilt things in their favor. Yeah. Cole has been not his best self, right? He feels and seems to be more hittable. He's still getting his strikeouts, although less so in the playoffs. I think he's topped out at four every game. He's not walking a ton of guys, maybe a little bit more homer prone, but it just feels like he's a little bit more hittable. Rodin, I think is a little bit like a Dodger starter in that like you just don't know.

You don't know. And he's also one of those guys that can strike out nine. I think he, and he did this, right? But he's going to give up a home runner too. And the thing is, if he avoids the home run, then, then you've got a dominant, dominant outing and starter, but you just don't, you don't really know. I like Clark Schmidt is maybe, I mean, Cole is the most consistent, but Clark Schmidt is just a good pitcher, right? I think broadly, so like really

nice third starter to have in this rotation. I actually, I just like Clark Schmidt a fair amount. Um, and, and certainly like you take him versus Walker Bueller and it's, it's not even in question. But I do think like, could Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto go toe to toe with Cole and Rodin? I think that's possible both because of the downsides the Yankee guys offer as much as the upsides the Dodgers do. Now, again, I wouldn't expect that. But I think each of them, each of those four guys have that kind of ability to either play down or play up depending on how it goes. Yeah.

Can I tell you my one potential looming bit of grumpiness about this series? Because I'm so excited about this world series. I think it's great. I think it's good for us. Oh, you're the one. Non-Dotty. Yeah, I'm the only one. I have a brave take, you know.

That's what they call me, brave take Meg. No, I like, I've said this on the pod before, like it was, it's fun for us to have gone from last year with underdog teams that weren't highly seeded and advanced all the way to the World Series. It's fun to have a World Series that's the number one versus the number one. I like having that sort of variability year to year. I think that that makes for an exciting postseason environment. You want there to be years where folks can look up and say, I can't believe the Diamondbacks made it. And you want there to be years where the teams that are thought to be the best come in and are in fact really good, right? These are, these are the things that we want, but I have one potential gripe and

you're, you're crystallizing maybe why for me. So one way that a Luis heel start can go badly, as you noted, is if there are a ton of walks, there is a scenario where he is just very inefficient. He ends up not going very long. The way that we have, um, stuff lined up right now in our Zips game by game odds, and I think this is borne out by the managers, is that game four would be heel versus a bullpen day for the Dodgers. And that could go forever, Craig.

That could be a three and a half hour long game, but not in an exciting way, in a bunch of pitching changes kind of way. And so I'm just, I'm bookmarking that as a potential. And I'm going to be there. I'm going for game four. Oh, that's right. Oh, are you going as a, are you going as a fan or are you going on a credit?

I am going as a fan. My father is insane. So people always ask, cause I'm from the East coast. I'm from Maryland. Like, why are you a Dodgers fan? How did you become a Dodger fan? So my dad is a Dodgers fan. He was born in Albany and was a Brooklyn Dodgers fan. He moved to New Jersey right around the time they moved to LA. He just stayed a Dodgers

fan. So that's why I'm a Dodgers fan. And so Yankees Dodgers is like his, obviously it's happened a lot, but like he's out of his mind about this. He's very excited. He was at Reggie Jackson's three home run game. Like this is a big, big deal for him. And so before the Dodgers even clinched, he I got a phone call and he was like, I bought tickets, like, I'm sure I can sell them if they don't, if they manage to lose, but we're going if they make it. So I am, and I want people to know, yes, I did write an article advocating for the Dodgers to bullpen game one and five instead of four. It was not out of that self-interest, but it wouldn't hurt. Yeah

Yeah, it feels like it has the potential to be a very long night But you know, we sometimes anticipate these things and then it's like in a crisp two hours and 20 minutes Well, thank God for the pitch clock, you know, yeah, at least there's that When you stack these rotations up against each other, I agree with you that the advantage sits with New York. But I think that the rotations are a perfect example of why this series is so even because there's enough potential for variance, both positive and negative on both sides that these feel relatively evenly matched, even though I would give the edge to New York as would you.

Um, cause I don't know, maybe you get another great Flaherty start. Maybe he blows up, maybe Garry Cole gives up, you know, five home runs like it's happened before, right? So it just feels like there's the potential for, for both of these teams to either turn in fantastic performances or have us going, oh, gotta get someone warming. And if they're warming, they'll go to the bullpen, Craig. See what I did? Craig Yeah, very smooth.

Lauren Yeah. This is an area where I do think that there is a more obvious advantage, even with the handedness thing. I still think I would rather have LA's bullpen than New York's. How about you? Yeah, I would. I don't and that's no shade on the Yankees bullpen, which has been very good. Oh, yeah. Overall, I know there was a little bit of bumps late in the Cleveland series, but you know, Clay Holmes has had as one can have like a very good season that is also up and down like yes the season-long numbers are are very very good and then also

It's like clearly he was not always at his best. Yeah this this Dodgers bullpen again I honestly very similar in a lot of ways to the sure the clay holmes issue like Evan Phillips clearly didn't have it for a significant part of his year. You know, Blake trying him all of a sudden, I feel like is rounding into like the really truly dominant version of him. Michael Kopek just white socks to Dodgers difference kind of thing. The big thing to me about these bullpens is, and it's a reflection of the gap in the in the rotation somewhat, the Dodgers are just they have more relievers and their depth

is very, they have a good number of good relievers, right? The Yankees have very good relievers and you're going to see all of them and you're going to see them almost every game. Yes. Unless their starter goes deep, but like that just doesn't happen as much in these playoffs and especially in the World Series, I think these managers are going to have an active, you know, a pretty itchy trigger finger in terms of going to the bullpen. And look, they have my admiration for this.

I think carried seven relievers in the DS and eight and they didn't use Stroman in the NLCA, I mean ALCS. They have my admiration for actually operating like a team that understands that there are off days and you don't need to have 10. The Dodgers don't have my admiration for that, but they also don't have four starters. So it just impacts them differently. And I think, again, Luke Weaver, Clay Holmes, Tommy Haney, Jake Cousins, like these are all very good, very good relievers. My concern for them is they started looking a little gassed at the end of that series and it was only five games.

Right, yeah. I have concern about the ability to go deep. I think that this is like such an obvious thing to say, but look, it's a preview of teams you've been watching for a month. What are we gonna say that you haven't thought of before? You know, like really, honestly, much more than even the Dodgers because of how much depth they have in that bullpen, how many guys they have who they can kind of plug and play. The efficacy over

seven of that Yankees bullpen is going to depend a great deal on how deep their starters are able to go because like, you know, they started to wear down. I think that the, maybe just as instructive sort of, um, scenario for the Yankees bullpen would be to look to how the guardians bullpen was deployed in the CS and you know, there's some close parallels there where there were a couple of guys who were really good. Now the guardians best guys are better than the Yankees. Best guys have been at least over the course of a season. But you saw a vote just like, I don't know, get Kate Smith in there. We just got to get Kate, you know? What is the ethnic

origin of Kate as a name? Where does that name come from? I don't know. Kate. But you know, by the end it was just like, you got Smith going in there, Gaddis, you know, Klaas A, like what are you going to do? He gives up home runs now, I guess, but you still have to throw him. He's the best reliever in baseball. So I worry that a guardians-esque fate might await some of the guys in that New York bullpen if, you know, they get shaky starts from Cole or, you know, Rodin or, you know, Heal. So I don't, I don't know how how that's gonna go. Trinen does look like really good now, again. Like, yeah. I appreciate his sweeper for so many reasons,

but I think that it's an important reminder to people that it's like, no, that's what a sweeper looks like, you guys. Although it's really the only one that looks like that. It is the only one that looks like that, but we got, you've heard my sweeper creep theory, right? We have some sweeper creep. Some of these sweepers are just sliders, Craig.

Some of them are just, you could just call it a slider. It'd be fine to just call it a slider. It doesn't have to be a sweeper. We should be a little finer with our distinction between these things. Because some of these sweepers are just sliders. You just call it a slider. I think Evan Phillips throws what I would call like the platonic some of these sweepers are just sliders. You just call it a slider. I think Evan Phillips throws what I would call like the platonic ideal of a sweeper.

Like when he has a good sweeper, it looks exactly that's what it's supposed to look like. Blake Trinen is a witch. Among other things, he is maybe a witch. He breaks in a different way. You know what I mean? I said this on my podcast, I'm sure people who were listening, I'm sure people who were listening, I did not know this until Joe Davis started talking about this. Did you hear the story of why he thinks his sweeper and his sinker are so good? Why try it? Because of his weird, I'm going to do a swear Shane, f***ed up finger.

Yes. Tell the story of his weird, swear f***** up finger. He was too and carrying a vase and dropped it and like it almost cut his finger off, his thumb off and they like reattached it but it's yes and I'm going to quote I'm not trying to you know I don't know I'm going to quote what Joe Davis said, which I believe is quoting what Blake Trinen said, which is that it's deformed. And so it, yeah, I guess to some degree, he said, Blake Trinen thinks that this is his superpower in terms of how he's able to grip and throw the pitches that he does. I had never heard that story until the broadcast.

No, same. He's been in the league a long time. He's been in the league a long time. And again, you know, we should all remember that when the sweeper as like an identifiable distinct from the slider pitch became a thing that people started reporting on, right? So when we started talking about trying and sweeper, when we started talking about what are the Yankees calling them? Whirlies, right? Whirlies, yeah. They're Whirlies. So when Lindsay did that reporting on the Yankees effort there, like,

as that pitch started to grow in popularity, we spent so much time contemplating Blake Trinen. How had I never heard that story? It seems like it would be very, a very important detail to include. Now, maybe that detail is in those, in the Trinen stuff and I had just missed it. That's completely possible because there's so much stuff and who can remember anything, but I had never heard that story that I can recall before and I was like, Oh, that makes a good bit of sense. Like you think about how important, you know, the way a guy grips it. Yeah.

Like how firm or fine he's being on the ball, like the way that guys will cock their wrists or not. Like, of course the his, I like, what kind of, what kind of vase was this as an aside that it almost took his finger off? That's what I'm wondering. Was it like a- I don't know. I want to know more about this.

I want to know more about the vase. Someone go find Blake Trinen's mom and be like, so, hey, what happened here? What kind of, was it like made of pewter? Was it a, maybe he is a witch. Blake Trinen as an aside would hate being called a witch. He would hate it in a profound way. So. What about a shaman? I feel like I should stop talking about Blake Trinen and what he might hate because I don't want to get in trouble. But Trinen looks fantastic. He looks like his old self.

He has been just devastating. I like a lot of the guys in this. I think that we should take a moment to appreciate both the work that Brent Honeywell has done and also the work that Luke Weaver has done because nothing makes you happier. You as an individual and we collectively than these like former top prospects who have had injury under performance, been traded, been released, finally kind of rounding into a form and getting to like really show what they can do. And, you know, Weaver's been more effective as a pitcher than Honeywell has been, but Honeywell has been important glue in that, in that bullpen. And the hair right now is spectacular, Craig.

Well, and also we do, we need to talk about, he's just sporting a, like a mock turtleneck all the time. Literally since he showed up in LA, which was the middle of summer in LA, just going with a mock turtleneck. Very, very impressive. I'm obviously not as familiar with Weaver. I mean, I know his general story, but I have not tracked him as closely this year.

But yeah, it's amazing to see someone who, again, has really flamed out as a starter and been through a number of injuries himself just show up in an indomitant form. I mean, striking out over 30% out of the bullpen, that change up is so fun. It is really fun to watch and pitch. And honestly, like just getting these guys in front of cameras that have these kinds of personalities, like someone asked him if he had an inkling about something earlier this postseason. And he was like, I don't really know what that word means,

but I'm guessing it's like, did I have an idea? And I'm like, you're 30 or something. You don't know, you've never heard the word inkling? I mean, he deduced it correctly. Right. He figured it out. He properly, yeah, engaged with context clues. Yeah, exactly.

But really, wow, that was impressive. He seems very funny and like a little bit of an oddball. Brent Honeywell, I have loved him as a prospect. Yes, I know. Right? Well, right now, Honeywell, I have loved, I loved him as a prospect, right? And like every single thing that you would find interacting with him would talk about his confidence, his personality, right? All this stuff. The most amazing thing, I'm thrilled for his success, but he's not like, he struck out

12% of batters this year. Like it's not Luke Weaver's success, right? It's different. He's hanging on to the back end of a bullpen spot. But what he did in, he did it several times in the regular season, but especially in the NLCS in terms of just absorbing innings, he went four and two thirds through 67 pitches or whatever. For him to do that with his injury history, and if people aren't familiar, he did not pitch from the middle of 2017 to the middle of 2021.

He spent just shy of four, literally four years, and I'm saying like 1200 days between minor league outings due to arm trouble. He had Tommy John surgery, he had an elbow fracture, he had a ulnar nerve decompression surgery. He has been through it. And to extend, he's not, yes, he's a multi inning guy, but he's not a 70 pitch guy. No. That's a borderline starter at this point. And for him to throw almost 70 pitches and risk

his arm, right? And look, yes, you could say he's a fringe roster guy. He's going to risk it because it's the NLCS and he wants, you know, all of this stuff. Yes, absolutely. But to be able to overcome the mental hurdle of can I push my arm? How will it feel tomorrow? When you had to do that and you didn't pitch for three and a half years, Right. That's remarkable to me.

We always want to be careful with this stuff because like, there is something admirable in being able to do that. You also don't want guys to put themselves in a position where they are like unnecessarily risking injury, you know, and navigating that is tricky because like they're also grown men and they're playing in the postseason. And I think that a lot of guys would tell you that that kind of risk is just worth it. If at the end of the month, you get a ring, right? Um, and so like how you, how we talk about that and how we navigate it, I think, um, you

know, has some, it's an important thing to be mindful of as, as sort of analysts, but it, it does just show, I think, a really remarkable amount of like steeliness. And there's a good bit of that on that Dodgers team. I mean, like, I don't know that it's a great idea for Freddie Freeman to always be playing. He really shouldn't. It's not. Really shouldn't. Might need a whole new ankle and foot. I keep saying that there's nothing wrong with his foot. It's really just the ankle. That's the problem. But I mean, gosh, if anyone's glad that one of the

series wants six and then they had four days off, it's gotta be, gotta be that guy. But you know, you have Freeman, you have Honeywell, like it's, it's a kind of a, an impressive thing. Pete Slauson I also just want to say on Honeywell, like I'm one of the post game like things after the, they clinched in the NLCS. Max Muncie talking to, I think David Vasay with Brent Honeywell, and he's talking about how Honeywell is one of the heartbeats of this team.

And I think that to me is very, from this, I don't know. I don't want to be like weird about it, but from like a third party perspective, I imagine't know, I don't want to be like weird about it, but from like a third party perspective, I imagine that to be very edifying for Brent Honeywell, who's, you know, generally struggled to stay on rosters, right? Like he would, he cycled through the White Sox, he cycled through a bunch of teams and to have Max Muncie is not Mookie Betts or Shohei Otani, but he's a borderline star in terms of his production at least. And to have him, certainly a key cog in this LA run over the last several years, say like

this guy is a heartbeat of this team and meaningful to this team, that is very gratifying to me. And I imagine people on the Yankees very much feel the same about Luke Weaver's ascendance, right? Because if Clay Holmes was the guy, I mean, again, it's a deep bullpen for who's there. It's just not a huge number of guys. And if he's suddenly not this version of Luke Weaver, it changes things dramatically. Oh, yeah. And so I imagine people, again, in the Yankee clubhouse, very much feel the same about Weaver. And again, that is extremely gratifying as a third party to have these guys get their due from their peers, right?

Like that is very cool to see. And I do just wanna say one more thing in terms of these bullpens. And I mentioned Alex Vesia and Brewstar Grateral are possibilities for the bullpen. I don't, we have not seen whether they are or not. I mentioned Alex Vesia and Brewster Gratteral are possibilities for the bullpen. We have not seen whether they are or not. I think it sounds like Nestor Cortez just is.

He's going to be there. One of the first paragraphs I read from something a few days ago was like he threw a bullpen against the advice of doctors, but felt great. That was in Cleveland. I think he's going to be crucial for this team, to be honest. I think he is exactly the kind of guy who can work the edges. He doesn't walk a lot of guys, but he still pitches on the edges. That could frustrate a Dodgers team.

And I think it really depends what percentage Nestor Cortez we get. The good version that we saw at the end of the season before the injury, where he's coming out and shoving out of the bullpen, could be a really big deal in a series like this. I think a lesser version of Esther Cortez goes maybe like a Jose Quintana start did, right? Where he suddenly needs the chases rather than the called strikes and that kind of stuff. And I think there's a huge gap between those two things. I don't know which version we're going to get, but it wouldn't shock me if he was a very big deal in this series. I think that that's right. I thought that when you said that you had one more thing to say, you were going to sing the praises

of your favorite metal reliever on the Dodgers, who I have taken to calling low leverage Ben. He is, I see, I thought you were setting me up for another Joe Kelly stunt. Honestly, I'm not even, no, I was, I was going to spare you that I was going to actually let you talk about a thing you like and say the thing you don't like. Ben just various, look, it's overblown, right? Like he's, he is low leverage. Ben is legit. Like that's, that's where he's probably got to be.

Yeah. But my, my thought on this, and, and I want to tie it back to what I said about like the mentality and sometimes the moment being too big for guys and maybe especially rookies, right? I think mentality can matter a lot. Heading into the NLCS, I really did not see a huge gap between Brent Honeywell, Landon Mack and Ben Casperius. I have my preferences, but I was like, you know, on the season, like, yeah, I think over an extended period, you

can, there's not a huge difference necessarily between all those guys. Then I watched them pitch, right? And Landon Nath had no confidence in his pitches. And I know I sound like everyone's father or grandfather, right? But like, he wasn't willing to challenge guys. And when he did challenge guys, there wasn't conviction in his pitches. He wasn't trying to miss bats in the zone. He was nibbling.

Uh, when, and then when he did come in the zone, it was punished because he, you know, and then you watched Kasparius or you watch Honeywell. Honeywell has significantly less stuff than Landon Mack, but he, he'll throw it in the zone with confidence. Yeah. And I think Ben Casperius has better stuff than Honeywell too. And he really, like, he goes after guys. Bulldog on the Mound or whatever is overblown as a phrase and it's a cliche. But he really does get up there and then go attack the hitter how he wants to. He's not

reactive. He's setting the tone. He's setting the pace. And he just, you feel better about it. That doesn't mean he won't get blown up by the Yankees. He might. Oh, sure. But it to me was a very distinct difference between him and Nack. And that is, again, where I'm saying like, I don't believe we generally have an insight. And I'm only using this insight in hindsight, right, for NAC. Going in, I was kind of like, eh, it doesn't really matter. But it did matter here. And I think that moment really was a little bit too much for NAC.

I don't think it always will be. I think he can adapt. Sure. Like these guys, it's an experience he now has under his belt. But for sure, Ben Casparis has come out and just been much more aggressive and from my view, and again, which is not with a tremendous amount of insight, has a lot more belief in what he's throwing than Nack did. Do you think that next October though, Landon will say that he has a knack for it?

I sure hope he does not. If I were him, I'd lean into the jokes. I'd be like, this is this is coming for me. I was trying to find a way to use knackered in a in a headline. Oh, well you have seven games, you know. Well, I'm hoping he's not on the roster, to be honest. No offense. Poor Landon. If Vessia and and Granite are healthy, I would expect Landon Mack and Edgardo Enriquez to not be on the roster. I did not prepare you for this question, so my apologies, but I want to close with this. Give me, for each of these teams, a thing that if you, I mean, you are a Dodger fan,

but if you were a Yankee fan as a Dodger fan, one thing that you're nervous about and one thing that you are very excited about specific to this matchup like it doesn't you don't have to be super detailed but a thing that you know you think is going to play well for for each of those teams. The thing as a Yankees fan I would be nervous about is the exposure of the bullpen. Yeah these these days off are crucial for them, but I could see that being a real factor. And it's why I think Nester Cortez is a big deal, right? As a multi-inning option, too, right? He gives him a third lefty. He can eat six outs potentially. I mean, again, we don't know kind of his status, but potentially something like that.

That is the thing that would make me nervous. I would feel good about my rotation, especially compared to the Dodgers. I would feel very good about the lineup. The lineup's good. Those guys are going to do what they're going to do. That is also is what it is at this point. The bullpen is where I would feel the most nervous as a Yankees fan. I guess we didn't end up talking about the fielding, did we?

We didn't mention that. Not as much. I mean, neither of these teams are particularly great. No, they're not Yankees. Just don't get in your own way so much. You were so in your own way in Cleveland in particular. My God was sloppy. And I think if they're going to be sloppy, that's really going to hurt them

with the Dodgers lineup, whereas you could navigate the the Cleveland lineup more Am I doing nervous for the Dodgers or something? I like for that. Okay And then give me something you like. Yeah, I mean the rotation I don't yeah every single starter is a complete Question mark except for maybe Bueller and it's like the question with him is like do you get adequate or do you get really bad? That's yeah, I mean, that's the question with him is like, do you get adequate or do you get really bad? That's yeah, I mean, that's the question, but there's there's variants, but the upside is pretty limited. Yeah. So that's that's really where my nerves lie. Like again, Jack Flaherty, I think first first pitch is just going to be like, is it 94? Is it 90? Right. And and that's where nerves are going to go from that point. Okay, I'll just stick with the

Dodgers for excited. I think again, I laid this out, but I think the lineup is going to be a real grind for this pitching staff to go through in a way that they just haven't faced with the Royals and the Guardians. And that doesn't mean they're not up for it, but sometimes that adjustment period is the difference maker, right? Oh, yeah. Before you realize like, oh, I've got to do it differently than I have been. And I know they're going to be prepared, but it's different once you're in it. For the Yankees. It's a good question. You can just be excited about judging. So yeah, I mean, you know what I mean? I just be excited. This is a this is a good team. Again, neither of

these teams to me are great teams But they are both good teams and I know he hasn't hit as much this postseason jazz in this lineup is Fun and cool and brings a different element. I remember of lefties. I know I mentioned it before I think could be really problematic for LA I don't know that I'd be excited about that But yeah, the top of this line is just an absolute blast, especially when Torres is hitting. So yeah, I guess that's what I feel is. I think that those are all great

and they were very much in line with mine. And I think just generally, again, very excited about how evenly these teams seemed matched against one another. We'll give a good thought to all of our friends having to make cross-country flights potentially multiple times to cover this series. Craig, you are the editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus. You have a podcast. What would you like to tell the good people listening to Effectively Wild to check out over at BP. Yeah. Well, we have our series preview up today from Ginny Searle.

Ginny is a tremendous writer, and so I would definitely check that out. We're going to be doing previews and recap. We have not been doing recaps all postseason, but we will be doing them for the World Series. The podcast is Five and Dive. It's twice a week with me and Jeff Padaternostro and Patrick Dubuque. We play a game at the end of every one. It's fun, hopefully informative, just generally kind of newsy. I guess you're already doing it here.

So maybe a little too much news, I would understand. But yeah, I mean, a subscription to BP is what, $46 for a year. It's well worth the value. I agree. Just as is a membership to FanGraph. So if you're not, I mean, you're already here folks, you're doing it, I'm sure you are. But if you're not, give it a shot.

Yeah, I would endorse a BP sub. A lot of really good work over there. Good work that extends obviously beyond the conclusion of the World Series. I know that you and I are both gearing up for list season. Oh yes. The lists, they are coming. I don that you and I are both gearing up for list season. Oh, yes. The lists, they are coming. I don't want to make you jealous, Meg, but I have received two completed lists already.

Wow, that's great. They're weighing on my soul. Oh, okay. Well, see, I am unburdened by what has been. I don't even remember what the line is. It has not yet been. So I think you're now unburdened. Yeah, I am unburdened, but I have a plan and not just concepts of one. So that's exciting, you know? But yeah, check out BP, all of the good work there. Check out Craig's podcast. It's a fun listen. Craig, thanks for stopping by and helping me preview the World Series. And I hope that you enjoy yourself, that you continue to live a Joe Kelly free

lifestyle for as long as that makes sense for you. And we'll have you back on soon. Thank you so much for having me. That'll do it for today. You can support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild. The following five listeners have already signed up and pledged some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going, keep us ad free and get access to some special perks. Adam Benjamin, Ben, yet another Ben, Graham Brown, Emmett Laurie and Tippi Jackson.

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