Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2237: What a Difference Four Days Makes

Episode Date: October 30, 2024

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about and break down the lopsided first three games of the World Series: what went as expected, what was surprising, Aaron Judge’s postseason struggles, Freddie Freeman’s heroics, Shohei Ohtani’s injury, pivotal plays, Aaron Boone and Nestor Cortes, TV ratings, and much more, followed by (1:06:47) a brief, a not-about […]

How can you not be predented? A stab blast will keep you distracted. It's a long song to death, but the shorter make you smile. This is Effective in Why. This is Effective in Why. This is Effectively Wild. This is Effectively Wild. Hello and welcome to episode 2237 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Van Graaff's presented by our Patreon supporters.

I am Ben Lindberg of The Ringer, joined by Meg Raleigh of Van Graaff's. Hello, Meg. Hello, welcome back. Thank you. Yes, this familiar voice you hear, it is I. I am back and I just rattled off that intro with no practice, you know? You can just go a week without doing it sometimes and it's just like riding a bike,

just doing your podcast intro again. Thanks for minding the store while I was away. Sure. Happy to hear the podcast as a listener from time to time. Yeah. That can be fun. Do you have any notes? Not yet. I haven't gotten through all the episodes yet. I'll let you know. We can return to it. It's like when Sam came back to host the second time and then for, I don't know, a year or so after that,

he caught up with all the episodes he missed and he would just gradually tell me the things that he took issue with on the air. So we can do that. Once I have listened to the entirety of your World Series Preview with Craig, I just haven't had a lot of time. So I started to listen to it. I've not finished it yet and I'm sure it will be amusing to listen to it. Probably once the series has concluded at this point. I'm guessing you predicted or anticipated that the Yankees would score more maybe. Did that come up on the preview pod? We thought that it would be very evenly matched, you know?

Yeah. That it would go a full seven maybe even. And Ben, I don't know if you know this, but so far things aren't looking great for the old bummers. They're not. I'm behind on my effectively wild listening, but not on my world series watching. I'm recurrent on that. Although we will both be behind by the time people listen to this.

So we always have to orient ourselves in time so that people know when we're talking here and what we know and don't know. So we're recording on Tuesday afternoon before the first pitch of game four. So for all we know, the series has ended already by the time you're doing this. I mean, you might be listening to this months or years hence, in which case it certainly has. I hope everything's okay in the future there and that there's still a world where people listen to podcasts and watch baseball, but it's also possible that the Yankees will have gotten their act together by the time you hear this and then we will talk about that. So we've missed so much,

or at least I have so much to talk about, not much of it Yankees success, unfortunately, for Yankees fans, but we can kind of catch up on these first three games and talk about things that went right or wrong. And then we'll be back next time to either wrap the series or to talk about things that went right or wrong. And then we'll be back next time to either wrap the series or to talk about how the Yankees picked themselves off the mat and managed to send the series back to LA. So that would be quite a change from what we've seen thus far. Look, anything can happen in a baseball game, right? And as you noted, we are recording this before game four, which is set to be

a bullpen day for the Dodgers. And look, those bullpen days have gone pretty well for them so far this postseason, but there's no reason that they have to continue to go well. And despite the look of distress on many a fan and celebrities face at Yankee Stadium last night. Like there's nothing that says that they can't pull this one out and win another and then send it back to LA. You know, Luis Hielo is a good pitcher. They have talented hitters, even though those talented hitters haven't hit all that much. We've talked a lot in this postseason about sort of vibes as a concept. And I think that the vibes are pretty down, you know, appropriately so on the Yankees side, given the gap in this sort

of series record. But as, you know, as Mike Petriello pointed out on Twitter earlier today, the Yankees are hitting a buck 86 in the World Series, Dodgers hitting 213. The real difference has come in the fact that the Dodgers are slugging 457 and the Yankees are slugging 294, right? Yeah, that'll make a big difference. Right, they have 11 extra base hits to the Yankees five. So I get why the vibes are bad.

They've built themselves quite a hole to climb out of. Why would you build a hole to climb out of? I guess a well, you climb out of wells. I've often wondered that, yeah. Yeah, why would you do that? That's a silly thing. They have to dig out of this hole. But I think that in some ways, this series has been a good bit closer than it has felt

at times. If Néstor Cortés doesn't hang one there, who knows, who knows what that game looks like? They could be only down two games to one. So, you know, we'll see, we'll see, we'll see. But also congratulations and or we're sorry and or good job, you know? Yeah, I was gonna use the expression, you know,

how you hear people say, oh, he could roll out of bed and hit 300, I was gonna use that to describe my flawless intro that I could roll out of bed and rattle off the effect of the intro, except for the many times when we flub it. But the Yankees just look like they have rolled out of bed and have not woken up collectively this series through the first three games. And we know they're a good hitting team. The Dodgers are also an excellent hitting team. These are two of the best hitting teams in baseball this season.

That had been the case in the postseason to this point. That is a big part of how they got here. And since then one team has continued that and the other team, the tap has just turned off entirely. And you know, yeah, as you're saying, the final scores are not lopsided. No, six, three in 10 innings. And of course, you know, that was a close game. It ends on a grand slam, which makes the score a little wider margin, but the

Yankees, so we can talk a bit more about the specifics, but the Yankees, they want that one get away, they could have, and should have won that one. And the games have gone in descending order of entertainment value, I would say, and competitiveness relatedly. Right. And so you have two, four, two victories in game two and game three. Game two, at least like, you know, it got kind of hairy there at the end for the Dodgers. Game three just didn't feel competitive at any point, even though, you know, Verdugo hits the two run bomb in the ninth with one strike left, right? To kind of make it look more competitive in retrospect and make the score more respectable. But at no point in that

game did it feel like the Yankees were in it really. And that feeling can be deceptive and you should not trust that feeling. And this is how broadcasters end up talking about momentum and ascribing some meaning or predictive importance to it. The Yankees, they look bad until they don't. And suddenly there's an offensive outburst. And for all we know, that has happened by the time people are listening to this podcast, but they just have looked bad. And obviously people have singled out Aaron Judge, not unfairly, but it has been kind of an across the board offensive outage for the Yankees in these three games, which if this were the regular season, we would make almost

nothing of this. They were just a three game series and the Yankees didn't hit so well, they would move on to the next series and you would forget about that one and it would be a blip in a long season, but that's not how the world series works. And so when your bats go cold in this week of all weeks, then that's going to be a disaster. So it's really just, you know, it's the Soto and Stanton show again, as it has been for much of this postseason and they're just not getting much support and you know, for much of the season, it was the Soto and Judge show and his absence has been conspicuous

from the most recent performances of the show. So, you know, it's just kind of a top to bottom offensive failure and give some credit to the Dodgers pitching to it. It's hard to know how exactly to apportion the credit and or blame there. Are the Yankees just doing a bad job of hitting or are the Dodgers pitching? Well, as always, it's probably a little bit of both. Yeah, I would say it's a little bit of both the judge and Soto show. And then we were like, we're too many procedurals, we

have to go in a different direction. There is another NCIS, Ben. How in- People keep watching them, keep making them. NCIS origins. Isn't the origin just the Navy? Like, what are we doing? I don't understand. Is the Navy's- Watch the show. Parents- They don't understand. Are they being murdered in an alley? Is Jack Nicholson

there? Like, what are we doing here? Anyhow, I think this was always the risk that New York brought with it, right? Because you're right to say that obviously they have been incredibly productive as an offense this season, but they've also been a hyper-concentrated offense and the splits when you include Aaron Judge and Juan Soto in the sort of overall team WRC plus versus when you pull them out are dramatic. It's a, it's a big difference. It's not a completely Moribund offense in their absence, but it is significantly worse. It is a meaningfully less potent, um, lineup when they're not in it or not hitting well.

And you know, so it has been fine, but judge has, judge has not, you know, it just hasn't. It's been very far from fine. He's been very far from fine. And I think that in the initial bit of him being kind of far from fine, I thought, well, you know, like this happens guys just go through little mini slumps and it stands to reason that his would be more deeply felt given how important he is to that lineup overall.

But now Ben, I feel a little more comfortable saying that he looks like he's pressing. He does look like he is trying to swing his way out of it. And look, when you're in judge and you try to do that, like sometimes it's just gonna work, you know, but it hasn't so far. And I think that the at bat he had last night as we're recording this on Tuesday, where, you know, off the bat, you're like, ah, maybe that, maybe that got out and it didn't. I was glad that we got one more signature John Sterling call, home run

call of a non-home run. And the breaking ball there goes deep left center field and K Oskar is there to make the catch. Oh, did I get fooled on that? What with that swing and the ball majestically going to left field Susan, I actually thought it was going to be out and it wasn't close. I say that not to pick on John, but out of love. And, uh, you know, you know that that has never been his strength.

He knows that has never been a strength to his credit. Like, it did look better off the bat. Now that, that ball was not even like close to warning track power, but you know, you're kind of conditioned to expect Aaron judge to hit baseballs a really far away. So in the sense that Sterling was fooled by Judge, well, we've all been fooled by Judge. We all expect him to just totally cream balls and that one, he hit off the end of the bat, like it was a big swing and Teasker didn't move an inch. I mean, it was kind of funny because Sterling launches into the call and just motionless

and not in the way that you get with just a total bomb that the outfielder doesn't even turn around or move. This was like, I don't even need to go back on this ball because it's right at me. I did feel like Judge looked better in game three. Maybe he's kind of coming out of it. You're kind of grasping at straws if you're hoping for some sign of life from him, because not only has he been bad, he has looked bad. He has just, you know, this is not the sort of slump where you're having a bunch of loud outs.

Like he has hit some balls hard. He can't help but do that. He's here and judge, but for the most part, his plate discipline, his pitch selection, his swing decisions have clearly fallen apart. And that shows up in the numbers. I mean, he's just been taking way too many strikes, swinging it way too many balls. Like his swing has lengthened when he is swinging it then he has just been all out of sorts. And so he's entered the Clayton Kershaw zone, I think, by which I mean, even if you're sort of a postseason small sample apologist,

you know, you're not inclined to dwell on postseason struggles. It's reached the point where you can't pretend that like, there's not some signal there or that he hasn't meaningfully performed worse than you expect him to. It's like almost historic proportions here. You know, the degree to which you ascribe that to some shortcoming of his character, that varies widely. But I think it's not just a small sample, because it's not a small sample. It's a fairly large sample as postseason samples go. LSW Look, do I think it is reasonable for this to sort of alter our perception of him as a player. Like, no, I think that that's a dramatic overreaction,

but we're a lot closer to being able to say something about it than we are for a lot of other guys. I think it'll probably be fine for him in the longterm. And look, he's gonna be a Yankee for a good long while. So I anticipate that he'll have plenty of opportunities to write the ship on that score, but it hasn't been a good October for him. I don't think any less of him as a hitter or a player generally, but it would be silly to not acknowledge that this has not gone well for him. Do I think that people are kind of overreacting to that in terms of what it portends for like Juan Soto's willingness

to stay and all of that. Yeah, I sure do Ben think people could pump the brakes on that, but it hasn't been great. I'm sure that he is equally displeased. The part of fans reacting to this stuff that I always find a little bit off in terms of like where they're putting their emphasis is that like, I'm sure no one is more annoyed with his own postseason performance than Aaron Judge, you know? I'm sure that there's no one on planet Earth who wishes that it were going differently than it is, but it's not been good, you know? It hasn't helped them when they've needed it. And I don't think that it would be remotely fair to say that if they aren't able to win tonight, if they lose the World

Series, that it's his fault. But he does bear responsibility in it. Can't avoid that fact either. As judge goes, often so go the Yankees. And as you said, things not going well. So like, you know, in game three, he singled, he got on the board at least. He took a walk. There were some pitches that he looked tempted by, but ultimately sat on that perhaps he would have swung at. So, you know, he was back in the lab. He was retooling and perhaps there's some signs of progress there. And if I find out that we recorded this before he has some breakout Reggie Jackson, Mr. October game, I would not be totally shocked but give him enough time and he would because he's too good not to. We've seen him go through

slumps, relative slumps before. Obviously he looked a little out of sorts the first month of this season. He was not nearly this bad. Then he was just average-ish or a little bit below. He was bad compared to the Barry Bonsian performance that he kept up for the rest of the season. But I think it's possible that what you were just saying about how no one is bothered more by this than Aaron Judge, that could be at the root of his problems. Yeah. Because he is really taking this to heart.

It seems like, like, you can tell, you know, when someone struggles in the postseason, I tend not to think like, oh, they're scared. You know, like they just can't handle the moment in terms of like, they're just unmanned by this. Like their knees are knocking together, you know, they're just shivering in their boots or something. I don't think that's how it usually works. I think maybe if anything, you get in your head a little or you, you know, make it seem more than it is and you don't go about your regular routine that works so well for you if you're Aaron Judge. And also, Aaron Judge is used to having to carry this lineup on his back a lot of the time, like to the extent that you can do that in baseball. He certainly did that a lot last year before he had the sidekick of Soto. It's ridiculous

to call Soto a sidekick, but that is how good Aaron Judge was during the regular season. And so he probably has a little bit of that mentality of the teams depending on me and if I don't produce, then we're done. And there's been some truth to that. So that puts extra pressure on him. You know, at times you want to think it's trying to make things happen. And so letting the game come to you, I think that's what it really comes down to. You know, you see Gleyber out there on base, Juan's getting on base doing things.

You want to try to make something happen, but, uh but you know, if you're not going to get a pitch in the zone, you got to just take your walks and set up for big G's. So, plain and simple, I got to start swinging strikes. And I think maybe that's gotten into his head a little, or it's just ill-timed mechanical flaws that then spiral because you start to press a little and you don't want to have bad moments at these really important times. And you feel for him if you're not a Yankees hater because fans tried to support him in game three when the Yankees came home and he got a big hand,

his first plate appearance. They were trying to do the cheer him up, do the Francisco indoor, do the Trey Turner, like we still got your back kind of display of support, vote of confidence. Then he struck out and he made a couple more outs and by the end of the game, he was getting boot again. So the grace period only extends so long. But that's the thing that has confused me about Kershaw.

It's that you can point to individual games where he was great and typical classic Kershaw. And so if you think like he's some kind of coward or something, he can't handle October. Well, how did he handle it? Those days, maybe I'm just thinking about it myself. Like, I don't like heights, you know, I can grid it out, but I'm never quite comfortable around a ledge or something. And it's not like one day I'm going to feel great next to the high ledge. And the next day I'm not, I'm going to feel uncomfortable next to the ledge on every day.

And so if, you know, I were playing in a postseason game, I'd be pretty darn nervous any game. I think I probably would not perform at the peak of my modest powers in any of those games. And so if you're able to muster that vintage performance, sometimes, then I tend to discount the idea that like, you just can't hack it at this time of year. And Judge too, again, you're slicing and dicing and looking at smaller samples. But if you look at his first couple post-seasons, he hit as well as you would

expect Aaron Judge to hit 2017, 2018. He was more or less his regular season self in the postseason. 2019, he was not great, but not bad. It's really 2020 on that he has been just completely incompetent in the postseason as he has gotten even better in the regular season. So is it that like when he was younger and less experienced, you know, he was less prepared for the postseason in theory and then he struggled since then, but not then. Or is it like, well, the Yankees didn't win and so he has progressively put more and more pressure on himself as the years go on. You could construct some sort of

narrative to explain that, but it's just one of those things. It's just a very notable thing. If you played many more post seasonsseasons, I would have plenty of confidence in Aaron Judge. I wouldn't do the Joe Torrey move a rod down to the ace spot in the lineup or anything drastic like that. I would just keep penciling him in there and hope that he figures it out because he's too good not to eventually. It's just that the series only goes so many games. Well, on the Yankees released lineup for game four, Judge is batting third, so I think that at least Boone is not overreacting to that part. I don't know what to make of it other than like sometimes you hit better than at other times, you know? So you haven't listened to the preview, but one of the things that Craig and I talked about

in that is that an obvious seeming advantage to us in this particular matchup was, you know, sort of the depth beyond the biggest boppers in each of these lineups. And, you know, you're seeing the value of that in this postseason, like Tommy Edmond is having like a postseason for the ages, right? And has had some very important moments, even as the World Series has progressed. And then you look

at, you know, a game like game three, where there were chances, there were chances for New York to get on the board and to do it before Virgo goes home run in the ninth, but they just weren't able to capitalize on them either because the hitting wasn't timely. There were some weird strike zone calls. We forgot how slow Giancarlo Stanton is. We should dwell on this for a moment, but I want to be a little bit fair, which is I get pressing and wanting to score a run there. Like you need to score runs to win. The bottom of that lineup coming up. I might send him too, but. I get it.

But also like he had barely reached third base when Teoscar got the ball. And I'm using first names with the various Hernandez's just cause there are multiple on the same team just in case anyone's wondering. Had just gotten to third and you know, Hernandez already had the ball in hand and, you know, he's not a great defender out there, but his arm is, is perfectly good. Yeah.

And Giancarlo is practically a statue at this point. So it was just a, it was like, well, he's going to be out by, unless, unless there's a throwing error here, he is going to be out and buy a not small margin. And you know what? That's exactly what happened. So. Yeah.

The breakeven point was low. The expected success rate was similarly low. That was really watching that in real time. I was wondering whether I was watching it in real time. I was like, is this somehow slow motion? And again, it speaks to the dichotomy of Jean Carlo that I've addressed in recent episodes where he's just this physical specimen, right? You look at him and it's like, wow, he's built like no other baseball player is built. And then he is in some other respects, so fragile. Like when he got to second, right?

He beat out a double and I was so afraid for him that he was just going to like snap those gargantuan legs, like a twig. And then he's running and for someone who is so fit and you know, fitness comes in many forms. If fitness doesn't equal muscular necessarily, how much you can lift doesn't mean you are cardiovascularly fit. And he is just in sort of self-preservation mode when he's moving at all times. And the thing is, you know that if he were running next to a normal human man, he would look fast, right?

Like you might watch that and think like, gee, I could beat John Carlos, can stand in a sprint. You probably couldn't. I mean, I didn't time him. I don't know what his time was exactly. And I don't know what yours is, but slow baseball players are still pretty fast by the standards of your average American, right? But that was perhaps the slowest I've ever seen someone look on a baseball field, aside from plantar fasciitis era Albert Pujols. Aside from plantar fasciitis era Albert Pujols, like that is about the slowest that I've seen an athlete look and his, he was like third percentile sprint speed, I think, you know, it's not new for him, but that was striking. I was like, I was mouthing to myself like, Oh no, you know, just like,

or maybe myself like, oh no, you know, just like, oh no. Or maybe more like, oh no. Yeah. I was surely, surely he wasn't sent, right? Surely this wasn't an active send. And then it was though, Ben. Yeah. You look up station to station in the dictionary and you see a GIF of Jon Cost trying to score on that ball. Yeah, so, you know, it wasn't the best bit of bass running.

You know, I think that in general, it was another pretty sloppy game by New York, both defensively and on the bass pads, it was just kind of a sloppy affair, you know? They don't seem, it doesn't seem like they have Vim or Vigor. There's no pep. Uh, they need some pep, Ben. I like to make the sound because I know that everyone enjoys listening to it in their ears. You've got your pep filter, hopefully. And they, you know, pep comes and goes and pep is not

predictive. And you know, you hit a home run in the first and suddenly it seems like you've got pep in your step. And not that that makes you more likely to have Pep for the rest of that series, but it just changes the vibes, as you said. And a lot of things have not gone according to how I thought they would go, aside from the fact that I always think that things won't go the way that I expect them to go.

But when I was writing a series preview pieces, I was focusing on the fact that the dodgers are shorthanded and thin and they're missing all these starters and all of the starters who are still standing are compromised in some way. And all three of the starters we've seen so far have looked almost vintage form. And that's been as big a surprise to me as the Yankees offensive outage. Those things are connected obviously. And so it's, is this weight, is, is peak Flaherty back? Is peak Yamamoto back? Is peak Bueller back? Or is this the Yankees bats suddenly going cold? But I thought, okay, they've, they're down to three starters and all of those starters come with significant concerns. We've got Flaherty,

whose Vilo was down and Mark Pryor, pitching coach of the Dodgers, had said, we don't think it's an injury issue. We think it's mechanical, but it's still kind of concerning. And it was, like he's had some strong starts. He's had some ugly starts this postseason. You didn't know what you were going to get with him. And then you got a strong start from him. Yamamoto looked about as good as he has since he came back from the injury, you know, went about as deep as he has. And then Bueller, you know, I know that the previous Bueller start in the NLCS was seen as something of a comeback, but I didn't really think of it that way. Yes, he was better, but he went four innings.

And also it was kind of an evolution of Bueller where he was relying more on off-speed stuff. And, you know, maybe that was the way that he had to go with diminished stuff or command, but this time he was back to the old Bueller almost. He was pumping fastballs by people, right? Like this was not like him adapting and dealing with lesser stuff. This was him sort of succeeding the way that he has in post-season past. So I thought that the Yankees were going to have the starting pitcher advantage in every game in this series. And that has not played out at all. That way the Dodgers starters have looked strong. And

meanwhile, the Yankees starters, Clark Schmidt, just not a great matchup for this Dodgers lineup. I would say the same thing about Luis Hill, not having seen how he fares, but you know, these Dodgers selective hitters who are not going to get themselves out, not the best matchups for non Rodin or Cole and even Rodin maybe didn't match up so well with this team. The Bueller stuff is so fascinating because, I mean, look, I don't want to take anything away from what he was able to do yesterday. But I think evolution is a good way to describe it, right? Because we still haven't seen like a, I'm going to do a swear.

We haven't seen like a f*** you start from Walker Bueller this postseason, right? We haven't seen him go up there and like strike out 13 guys and go seven and, you know, like look utterly dominating. We have seen him continue to look more effective as the postseason has gone on. And I think that some of the changes that he has made to his repertoire mix have shown an adaptability that has really served him well, right? That he's been willing to sort of mix and match in a way that he hasn't before, lean more heavily on secondary where it's been appropriate, you know, was able to sort of mix and match in a way that he hasn't before, lean more heavily on secondary where it's been appropriate, was able to kind of do what he needed

to get a pitch out of trouble when it happened. But he hasn't been like, this hasn't been like a postseason campaign that I think anyone's gonna 20 years from now be like, God, do you remember when Walker Bueller pitched in the 2024 postseason? That's not what it's gonna be. But it's been more than enough, especially if late. he has picked up his offense, his offense has picked him

up, he's put them in a position where the bullpen hasn't been overtaxed when they know they're going to need to rely on it for, for stretches, you know, I think Yamamoto was quite impressive, went out there, faced the lineup a third time through, took care of business. It was quite good. And, you know, sometimes you get caught by Wansoda. Like that just happened. That's gonna happen.

They've been much more effective than I expected. And it's interesting because it's like, you know, we're sitting here talking about the vibes and the energy of the series and how different it feels. And it's like, lest we forget, like it feels like every other game though, the Dodgers have played up until the World Series has been like they're either winning a blowout or they're losing a blowout, right? Like, and they have sort of deployed their pitchers to that, to that end. I think that, you know, sequencing guys well can mean like bringing in the

right guy in a really tight contest when the leverage index is crazy and you got to rely on the right guy and know what the matchups really are. But I think sometimes, and we saw this, you know, it sort of reminds me of the way that Snicker managed the Braves in the year that they won the World Series. One of the things he did really well in that postseason was knowing we're not coming back in this one. Like I'm using my low leverage guys. I'm saving my high leverage guys because I know I'm going to have to lean on them super heavily throughout this. Let's make sure that they're not pitching in a game that we think is, is pretty far out of our reach.

And I think Roberts has done a really good job of that this postseason. Things have been tighter in the world series, but he's still been pulling the right levers and he's been aided by his pitch, his starters going like reasonably deep into these games. So. Now somehow we have not said the name, Freddie Freeman, a half hour into this podcast. And obviously he's been a big driver of the Dodgers success more so than he had been to this point. Now the Yankees, they can win without Aaron Judge hitting.

In theory, they did it to get to the World Series, but it's tough to sustain that. The Dodgers got here more or less without Freddie Freeman. He was there, but he was a sort of a fraction of his usual self, a shadow. He was- In spirit more than form. Yeah. He was a singles hitter, if that. And obviously he's no longer that. He is just a home run hitter. And I mentioned in one of my preview pieces, probably on the pod last week, that I thought the break would benefit the Dodgers more so than the Yankees because they were just more banged up. They just had so many walking wounded

that we know about Freeman being the best example, but then also the bullpen just, they really had to air it out to get to the World Series. They were challenged a little more than the Yankees. So you rest your bullpen, you reset, you get Vesya back, which is big. You get Gratorole back, even though you lose Evan Phillips. So relievers in, reliever out. But, and you know, you get Miguel Rojas back, not that he's been a factor in this series. You also just give guys time to heal, Gavin Luxe

and Freddie Freeman, you could tell that he was better just from the start of game one when he legged out that triple, which was obviously dependent on a misplay, one of many Yankees misplays. But still he got around the bases and I don't know that John Carlos Stanton could do that. I don't know that NLDS or NLCS, Freddie Freeman could do that. He got around without it looking that painful from afar And not at his top speed, but good enough. And, you know, just having an extra base hit, that alone was a sign, okay, maybe he won't be quite as compromised by this. And then of course, he ends up being the hero of that game and hits

the first walk off Grand Slam in World Series history. And I wrote about that play and that home run and the decision that led to it. And I came down pretty harshly on Aaron Boone. I just, I did not think that was the right move. I often, I second guess, second guessing I've written about that. Just, you know, there are a lot of things we don't know and teams have better matchup projections than we do, and they know the state of everyone's health and availability better than we do, and they know the state of everyone's health and availability better than we do, and the soft factors in theory, they should have a better command

of those than we do. And in the past, even I've defended Aaron Boone when Yankees fans have piled on certain decisions and they seemed fine to me, more or less. Or he didn't seem like someone you could blame for those failures. In this case, I just do not see the vision. I just do not see the logic of summoning Nester Cortez in that moment. I know that he has said he thought it was justified. He didn't have second thoughts.

He shared some of the rationale there, but to me, that was just the worst possible place to put in someone who has not thrown in a game since September 18th, you can't you just can't bring them in in that situation. You can't you can't do it. It felt like setting him up for failure and I understand that like you You're in extras It's the first game of the series like you're trying to win that game but you also are managing a little bit for down the line, but like you can't give your highest leverage.

You know, that's just it. It made Ben, it didn't track, didn't scan for me, you know? Yeah. And forget about second guessing. I think a lot of people first guessed, I certainly did a bit of a double take when I saw Corsess coming out of the pen, right? And that was another thing I was like, okay, this break will benefit the Dodgers more than the Yankees, but the Yankees get Nester Cortez back. That might help. Little did I consider that that would dangle this tasty treat in front of Aaron Boone, who would be tempted to use Nester

Cortez in this situation. And I get it. The other left-handed options are recent arrivals, Tim Hill and Mesa. I mean, these are recent additions, just mid-season pickups. But Hill has been really good for the Yankees. He's been very effective in the postseason and just he has gotten regular work. So I just, I don't see it. I know that Otani had a lousy track

record against Cortez, but again, we're talking like 12 plate appearances at that point, something like that. No. Yeah. And again, maybe Aaron Boone has some matchup projection that is empirically sound and is based on good data about swing paths and arm angles and repertoires and all. Maybe he's not going based on the individual batter versus pitcher matchups, but he said he liked that matchup. I get why you don't want to throw Hill out there when Mookie is due up next and you've got big platoon splits there potentially with Meza and Hill. And I had no problem with Boone putting Muki on. Once Otani fouled out and Verdugo made that great catch and toppled into the stands and that allowed the runners to advance and that opened up first base. At that point I was okay with putting Muki on.

So you end up not having to face him. And then Freeman comes up and I also understand that, you know, it's a tough double play situation. Hill of, is a great ground ball specialist. Um, almost no one struck out fewer hitters than he did on a rate basis and no one got more ground balls. So he's a good double play specialist, tough to double up Otani, obviously, but still just, I don't see how you can call in Cortez at that moment. As rusty as he figure he's been,

even if he's been throwing, I get that, he threw to Yankees teammates in an empty stadium. It's just not the same. And he threw two pitches and I know he got Otani out on the first one, but that was kind of a cookie too. He got a little lucky that Otani missed that pitch. And then the next pitch to Freeman, which was in a similar location, a little more inside, but not as high as he wanted it. And as the target was, well, no kidding that his, his command might be a bit off

in that situation and everything that comes with that and the adrenaline and the doubts about his elbow. People were telling Cortez prioritize your health and your future earrings and don't even try to rush back. And credit to him that he did this for his team. He wanted to get back in action. Great. But I thought, okay, you use him. Maybe there's a low leverage tuneup opportunity to ease him back in, or maybe if the game goes in into extras and stays in extras and you need length, okay, you have him in reserve.

Or maybe if a starter gets hooked early and you, you're down and you just need length and hope to stay sort of close, fine. You bring him in, but no, like just no, I know he had one relief appearance in September, but it was more of a piggyback tandem starter situation and he has relieving experience in the past, but he's been a starter almost exclusively since mid 2021. It just felt like a lot to insert him into that situation. And it could have worked.

It, you know, he could have gotten out of it and he'll could have come in and could have given up the homerun too. So, you know, you can't put it all on Boone and the Yankees made many mistakes in that game. So it wasn't just a solo effort, but it was one of those that I wrote like we just hadn't had sort of a signature managerial mistake this October, which was kind of nice. I like talking about the players more than. We had talked about that before you went on break. Like, oh, it's been, you know, there are nits to pick, sure.

But a lot of this is, you know, trying to make the best of, of difficult pitching situations more often than not, or, you know, benches that aren't deep. Like there's, there hasn't been a big blunder, but I think that that's no longer true. No, this was one. Yeah. And that's a big part of October playoff lore, those moments where as a fan, you're facepalming and you're thinking, what are they doing? Those are sometimes the most agonizing ways to lose because you can forgive physical failures, but the unforced mental mistakes, like you had time to consider what you wanted to do here and you decided to do that. Hill was warming alongside Cortez and you had a binary decision, this or that, and you

went with this and boy, and you went with this and boy did that backfire. So yeah, you can blame Boone to an extent for that. And I do, while also acknowledging that it's been a team effort, it's been kind of a collective failure too. And many of the managerial mistakes were just less glaring or they came in more lopsided games. And so you could kind of just sweep it under the rug and say, eh, you know, maybe that was a weird one, but it didn't amount to much in the end, whereas this was as consequential as a decision can be.

I often feel for managers this time of year, because I think that, you know, they have to make a decision and that is only the first marble getting pushed into the Rube Goldberg machine, right? And then after that Rube Goldberg, Rube, Rude, Rube, not Rude, it's not a Rude Goldberg. It's not like admonishing a person named Goldberg. Rube Goldberg, Rube, Rube.

The players are the ones who then have to execute, which is why we try to remind people to like, look at process, right? And try to determine if the rationale was sound. And sometimes we don't have all the information we need to make that determination, right? Sometimes managers know about a guy being unavailable and they haven't talked about it publicly. They get cagey about that in October. Sometimes they're especially cagey about it in October because you want to keep your potential weaknesses a little closer to the vest. But this one seemed like an obvious mistake just out of the hand,

right? Much like Néstor Cortés' pitch. I was like, uh-oh, I don't think that's going to go great for him. And then Bennett didn't. And both of these managers, both Boone and Roberts have been much maligned in postseason past and they seem to have avoided the error. And maybe part of that was just that they had fewer options. And we talked about Roberts and how he seemingly had gotten himself into trouble bringing aces in in relief. Well, he just didn't have any aces really for much of this posies and certainly didn't have any he was holding in reserve.

So he just didn't have that many glasses to break in case of emergency. And you could sort of say the same about Boone. And so it's been kind of conventional in the sense that you just have starters and then you have bullpen days, but you don't so much have starters pitching in relief rolls unless they're swing men to start with. And so Boone gets Cortez back and ultimately it turns out that maybe he would have been better off without even having that option presented to him. So that's how that ends. And good for Freddie, who's been through so much emotionally, mentally, physically, on and off the field this

year. And he guts it out and he says I'm gonna be there. And obviously I think those four off days paid some dividends in terms of the ankle or his capacity to play through the pain, if not the severity of the pain. And he looks like he's got his legs under him now and so he's just cranking dingers left and right. So that's huge for the Dodgers again, because you know, especially if Otani is not gonna be his best self, and that's something we must discuss as well. Yeah, you were like, I can't believe we've gotten this far

without saying Freddie Freeman's name. I can't believe you got more than two seconds into your return without singing a couple bars of whoa about Otani. Yeah. Look, can I say this? I don't know that he should be out there. You know, we got to see him swing eventually.

He wasn't comfortable, didn't look like he was enjoying himself. Didn't look like he was finishing in the way that he typically does. And then he's walking around out there like a winged bird. I just, I don't know. Yes, look, it's surprising also that both he and Judge have been essentially non-factors on the field. And in Otani's case, we were wondering whether he'd even be on the field after the way game two ended.

We talked about his sliding style and how he protects his hands and his fingies and he's sliding in feet first and how that has mostly preserved him. Deepens my suspicion that we won't see him try to steal as many bases once he returns to two-way play, but here still don't exactly know what happened, just like a awkward planting of the wrists and then a yank of the shoulder. And it was a subluxation, which means it didn't fully pop out and it kind of popped back in. And you can hear him speaking in Japanese because the bass is mic'd up and he very, very considerably for everyone watching and wondering what the heck was happening. He just announced what had happened essentially once we got the translation there.

But yeah, there was concern. Would he be done for the series? If he came back, what state would he be in? And so we see him in game three and clearly cringing after some of the swings. And I get that, you know, A, fortunately, it's not his throwing shoulder, and it's also not his front shoulder as a hitter, it's his back shoulder. So a little less reliant on the shoulder and the mobility. And I don't know that he's doing any long-term damage or jeopardizing his future health here. It really varies. There have been some severe

injuries like this, and there have been others that people have come back from almost immediately and have suffered no ill effects. Now he walked, he got hit by a pitch, he still managed to contribute and maybe having Otani with some soreness around his shoulder, like holding his arm, holding his jersey with his arm when he was on the base so that he didn't jar it or anything. Maybe that's still better than, I don't know, Andy Pahas or, or, you know, moving people around or having Freeman DH. I don't know what you'd do, but it's hard to project what Otani is right now.

And I sort of thought once they went up three, oh, okay, now you can, you, you've got, yeah, you can rest him for a game or two here. You've got a little bit of a buffer. You've got some margin for error. You can lose a game or two and maybe he'll make a recovery then and he'll feel better and he'll be back to his best self by late in the series. But it seems like they're not super worried about him and he wants to be in the lineup. Of course, he's Shohei Otani. I'm sure that he does not want to be sitting on the sidelines, not getting into the game when he wins a World Series. So probably he did some assuring people that he's fine and talking himself into it.

But yeah, like I don't know if it's irresponsible in terms of like jeopardizing his long-term health or anything. It's just, is this actually beneficial? Otani in his state? But you know, this is a guy who like hits homers right after learning he has to have Tommy John surgery. So it's kind of in character for him to just play through things and not really be affected by them that much.

So it would shock me if he had some big hits even while he's nursing this injury too. And I want to be perfectly clear that I don't have any idea if this has any long-term implication for him. Like I can't imagine that if it did, that he'd be out there. You know, the Dodgers want to have a productive and like fully operational Ohtani next season. I know they really want to win a world series too, but like they want to have him pitching and hitting and being a star for them next year. And so I'm sure that in addition to whatever he is telling

them that they're also assessing, you know, the scans and whatnot and watching him and doing all that. But it looks insane, you know, it just like, he's out there holding his arm to his chest. Like if you breathe on him wrong, it's gonna be painful for him. And I bet it is, you know? And the swings just didn't look comfortable. So all of that to say, I'll be really interested

to see how long do they let him go tonight? Are there circumstances under which they would pull him, right? If they go up really big early, are they like, all right, Ohtani's out of there. You know, he's, he's made his point. Yeah. He's not standing on the field either. Like he's not going to be out there. I mean, running in from having caught the last out or something.

He's DHing. So he's going to be running from the dugout one way or another. But like, there's clearly a big amount of, a large amount, a copious amount of gingerness with which he's being treated because after that Freeman homerun, you know, they're coming in from the field, everybody's excited, they're high-fiving. He is still holding his arm to his chest and they are all being very careful in that dugout not to jostle him. So I, you know, do I think it's irresponsible?

I mean, probably not. My default assumption is that they're not being irresponsible with the $700 million superstar who they want to both pitch and hit next year. But I just was sitting there and I was like, well, this is insane. This is clear. I mean, look at this. And then I shared that sentiment with several members of the fan graph staff and they were like, well, we should see how he swings.

And then he swung and I was like, I still think this is nutty. I still think this is a very strange choice. It didn't really look like he was holding back so much. It just looked like it hurt. It seemed like it hurt. It seemed like it hurt. It seemed like it hurt. And it didn't look like he was finishing quite the way that he would if he were not compromised in some way.

And you're right. It's not his lead shoulder. If it were his pitching arm, he would just be done, I think. There's no way that they would have him go back out there while he's in the midst of recovering from the elbow to be like, oh yeah, your shoulder on your pitching arm is now screwed up. Definitely keep playing. People have invoked Cody Bellinger's injury. And in fact, Otani himself did.

He texted his teammates to say, Hey, it's a good sign when we lose someone to an injury like this. The last time that happened, you won a world series. Can you imagine if you got that text from Otani, can you imagine I would be pulling my hair out? I would be so nervous that he was more hurt than he was letting on. If I got that text from him, I'd be like, no, but how are you actually Shohei?

You need to tell us. Yeah. Well, I'd be a little nervous if I got any texts from Shohei probably, but in that comp, like Bellinger came back pretty much immediately and hit a home run and game one of that World Series, but then he had surgery after the season to repair the labrum. And then we know how his 2021 went and the Odyssey, the struggles he went through there and like did the physical problems, compromises, mechanics. So you don't want to end up in some sort of cycle like that. And hopefully Otani's injury is not as severe as Belanger's was and won't be something that

requires surgery. But yeah, for most people, it's probably more than just rub some dirt on it and get back out there. Although, you know, like there's only so much you can do, I guess the thing pops back in and you're more or less good to go except for the soreness because like the joint is not supposed to move that way until the tissue around it is like, Hey, what are you doing? Like that's not where you're supposed to be. You respect my personal space. Like this is not right. Your joints are so polite then. Yeah. Hey, rotate in here.

There you go. Hopefully he'll be okay, both in the short term and the long term. But yes, that just adds another aspect to the story. And it just seems like everyone is hurt. Everyone is worn down. Everyone's got broken fingers or some sort of, even like Clark Schmitz, he hasn't quite been the same since he had what, a latch strain and he was out for months and he came back and it just hasn't been as effective. It's just like everyone's running on fumes, but the Yankees have just, you know, the meter it's been in the red.

Like it is, it is empty. You know, you're stalling, you're pulling over on the side of the road. So you know, really from Ice Cube versus Fat Joe on down, the quality of the performances here across the coast has, like, you know, one's lip syncing and one is not, at least not, obviously. So maybe the quality of the catalogs are different too. But so, this is the best we can do, Fat Joe. Look, Fat Joe's a big baseball fan, you know?

Seems like not, you know? But what do I know? Well done on your car analogy there, Ben. That was well executed, yeah. So down 03, and I've been bombarded by ads, PR pitches for the Netflix 2004 Red Sox doc, which I have not treated myself to yet. I wonder whether Aaron Boone is returning to his notorious 2022 tactic of sending around

clips from the Red Sox victory over the Yankees when the Yankees were down 0-3 to the Astros and the ALCS, which offended me as a former fan at the time when I heard that. And so if he's tried the same tactic this year, he has wisely kept it to himself. Yeah, I forgot he did that. But everyone knows the odds never happened in a world series only happened that one time in a championship series. Yeah. It's really hard to come back from that.

And that's why we end up with the must-win creep where everyone says, well, if you're down three, nothing though, you're basically done. And so game three, when you're down two, oh, that is essentially a must win, you know, more or less it has been historically speaking. And so you just have to tell yourself, well, it's only four games though. How often do we win four games in a row? That doesn't seem so hard, but when the Dodgers are playing the way that they're playing and you're swinging the way you're swinging that doesn't seem so hard. But when the Dodgers are playing the way that they're playing and you're swinging

the way you're swinging, well, it seems hard and it's just been some strikeouts, just like eating the offense and not one to say, oh, strikeouts and power oriented offenses don't work. No, the Dodgers, as you said, they've hit two something. And if that comes with power, that's fine. And they've scored the heavy majority of their runs on home runs. And that's something that both of these teams did. And that was part of their success.

And if the Yankees were doing the all in all or nothing, then they'd be faring better in the series too. You can't just have the nothing though. You have to have the all. Yeah. You do actually have to score runs in order to win baseball games. Can I share something that might make me sound self-aggrandizing, but it's self-aggrandizing on behalf of the podcast. Have you wondered if some of the broadcast booths have listened to our conversation

about the must-win thing? Because I have noticed, Ben, there's been a lot of very careful qualification of that, even from imprecise announcers like John Smoltz, where they have made sure to say that these are not actually literally must win, they only have the feel of a must win. And then I got worried that John Smoltz listens to Effectively Wild Wild and I don't think Schmaltz actually listens to our show. I'm sure he has no idea that we even exist as a show or as individual co-hosts. But I was like, oh, did somebody get a little note in their production meeting? Because everybody's been very careful. I was on TV with John Schmaltz once, although I would still say he does

not know I exist even though that happened at one point. But yeah, it's a self-policing pedantry that's happening, just anticipating the objections and qualifying accordingly. So I salute that. I have been wondering, because we've heard a lot about the ratings and as anticipated, the ratings have been up. They won't be as high as they could have been. If this series ends up as a sweep or shorter, you know, people tune in to see the high stakes games later in the series. And when, when team seems almost out of it early on, then you're going to get fewer eyeballs.

There've been some stats about how there've been more people watching some of these games in Japan than in the United States. Oh. And look, I welcome anyone watching. John Smoltz is free to tune in to Effectively Wild if he wants to. We want this to be a big tent. And I love the fact that baseball is an absolute phenomenon in Japan. And I wish I could be there for that. I wish baseball had that kind of cultural currency. It really is the national pastime in Japan in a way that it no longer is in the United States and hasn't been for quite some time. So the idea that baseball would be such a water cooler activity and that everyone would

be watching it once, that's super exciting and I envy it. I wonder whether that captures the communal viewing that happens here, say at sports bars, gatherings, because in Japan the games are in the morning. Right. And yes, you've seen footage of people in cafes watching the game together, but I would guess like if you counted the eyeballs, maybe there are more people per screen watching just because of the timing and the way that those games are being consumed across continents. I also wonder though, because people have bragged about how this is the most watched

World Series game in several years and it's 65% higher ratings over the first couple of games than last year's series, which was an all time low. I wonder how much of that is literally just Yankees and Dodgers fans and there being more of them than Rangers and Diamondbacks fans. That's got to be the bulk of it. I haven't done the math to see like, okay, you have this million more viewers per game and there are this many more million people per market in this series. I would guess that accounts for most of it. Like I'd love to think that this is attracting neutrals and impartial observers who are seduced

by, ooh, Yankees Dodgers star power and they're tuning in. But I'm going to guess that just literally there being more Yankees and Dodgers fans than fans of most other franchises, that probably accounts for the bulk of it. So it's still like regional and parochial and provincial and people watching their team and consuming the sport in sort of a regional way. It's just more densely populated regions. I would guess they're just more Angelinos and New Yorkers than there are people who watch Diamondbacks and Rangers. No offense to them, but that probably accounts for a lot of it. And so if that is it, then can you say that that's really raised the profile? Like it has sort of,

and yet it's still localized. It's just well-populated locales. LS. It is, but I think that when you have two media markets that are not only huge, but also home to much of the media, these things sort of break contain a little bit more than I think they do in other places, even in other cities that are massive media markets and might have really energetic and dedicated fan bases. I know that people who cover baseball, a lot of them were rooting for a subway series. They were rooting for that so they could sleep at home, the whole series. You know what? Nothing wrong with that, in my opinion. So there is something kind of in the air. It can kind of be in the air a bit when you're in a place like New York or LA, because

you know, it's for the people who broadcast about stuff live. So that stands to reason for me. Jared Sissling That's definitely been a big part of it. And I hope that there aren't deflated fans or would be fans who were tuning in to these last couple of games and saying, I was expecting to see Shohei Otani and Aaron Judge being the best players in baseball and going head to head. And I thought this was going to be a super close series. And if you missed game one, then it hasn't been so scintillating. So, and how baseball is that, that sometimes the matchups that you're less excited for turn out to

be really riveting. And sometimes the much-ballihooed ones don't. Now, if the Yankees can come back and really make this a series, then there's still a chance for that to happen, but it has not started that way. And that is somewhat disappointing because it's been an incredible postseason and we've had a lot of great matchups that were really great on paper and then delivered and the games were great.

And it seemed like we were pretty pro this matchup in the grand scheme of things and hey, we got the best against the best and the biggest stars against the biggest stars. So as a perfect capper to what has been a really great postseason on the whole, I wanted this to be a legendary sort of series and game one aside, it has not been. Yeah. But game one was really great. Game one was great. So there is that anytime you have a world series first that doesn't require a lot of qualification, that doesn't fall into Fun Fact territory, but is just very obviously exciting and cool,

and is something that we haven't witnessed before, you're in kind of special territory there. So I hope that they make it more of a game tonight and that we get the series going a little bit longer. But I don't know that it'll change my general assessment of this postseason, which has been, I think, just a real delight. But yeah, I'm sure Yankee fans are like, yeah, see Meg, don't you want the Yankees to be good? And I want a good matchup, you know? I would like it to go seven. Think how dramatic that would be.

Seems unlikely, but you know, it's not impossible. The Yankees are not a great team, but they're a better team than they've showed in the series. Yes, for sure. They had showed that in this postseason. And yeah, some of the flaws have been exposed on that roster. Aaron Judge's flaws, unsuspected ones,

we didn't even know he had. And look, the thing when you're analyzing judge, if you compare, I mean, I did various searches on fan graphs and went to the actual graphs themselves and was looking at like rolling X number of games, samples of Aaron judge, like, has he ever been this unproductive in a sample of 11 games or whatever it is? Has he chased this much? And no, not really, or very infrequently. And yeah, you'd expect, okay, you're facing postseason pitching, people are going to be

a little worse, offense is a little lower on the whole, but not like this. And so when he's having the worst stretch of equivalent lengths of his career, or at least since the early days, like it's a total outlier for him. Even when he slumps, he doesn't slump like this. Yeah. Yet also the Yankees, the weak underbelly of the batting order is exposed too. Like when game two ends with Jose Trevino pinch hitting, and like he was probably the right person

to be hitting in that situation. And that just does not speak well of the Yankees bench. And it's not like the Dodgers have some incredible bench either. Teams in general tend not to have great benches these days because the bullpens are so big and players have to field multiple positions and you don't have the big mat stairs, you know, players have to field multiple positions and you don't have the big

mat stairs, you know, where have you gone? A nation turns its lonely eyes to you, right? But you know, the options there are Austin Wells, Trevino, Jason Dominguez, who hasn't played really, Trent Grisham, Oswaldo Cabrera, I mean, pick your poison if you're the Yankees perspective and Trevino probably was the least poisonous option and he put a good swing on it at least, but when you're ending a game like that, okay, it's not Michael Martinez making the last out of a world series, but that speaks to just the weaknesses

of this roster. And I think that's what frustrates Yankees fans when they look at the payrolls or the past track record and they say, we shouldn't have these obvious holes. Like we're the Yankees, we they look at the payrolls or the past track record and they say, we shouldn't have these obvious holes. Like we're the Yankees, we should be the best at everything, or at least we should have a credible option everywhere. And if you're sort of dumpster diving in a high leverage spot, maybe that's mean to Jose

Trevino, but like, you know, he hasn't hit and Wells hasn't, none of these guys has hit. So if you just don't have a good hitter to go to, it's just an uncomfortable place to be and the Dodgers at points have had some weakness and thinness in their lineup when they were missing guys too, but it's just a much deeper group, as you said, and you know, like you could handicap the series and say, oh, well, the Yankees are much worse. Base runners. Okay.

We've seen that happen. We sure have. The defensive disparity is a little less striking and neither of these teams is like, defense is their strong suit. Exactly. And then the starting rotations, again, I thought the Yankees had the edge there,

has not played out that way in practice. The bullpens, I thought the Dodgers had a better one and it has been quite effective and we'll see what happens in game four, but there just wasn't really a lot of daylight between the two. The Zips projection was literally 50.0, 50.0. So that's why all I really expected was a close series when people were asking me throughout last week who I thought would win, despite knowing in some cases that I rarely pronounce those things unless forced to under duress.

I just said, it really is kind of a coin flip. Even for me, Mr. wishy washy about predictions or Mr. chalk, there just isn't a clear edge here. And so I thought the Dodgers, the fact that it's as close on paper as it seems is because the Dodgers are missing a rotation that it's as close on paper as it seems is because the Dodgers are missing a rotation and a half essentially right now. So they have actual arms tied behind their backs, but I just did not foresee one side being outplayed to the extent that the Yankees have to this point. Yeah. I didn't even make, Craig, make a prediction on our preview episode because I was

like, what's the point of doing that? It's so evenly matched. I will say the odds did shift ever so slightly after some of the bullpen depth stuff got clarified, but yeah, it was so close coming in. And now the Dodgers have a 92.8% chance of winning the series per the Zips game by game odds. So, you know, there's that. Well, we've seen improbable comebacks in this very postseason, but over the course of a single game, not over the course of a best of seven series. That does make it more challenging. Yeah. I wonder if it does. I guess if the odds are the odds, maybe it's the same either way, but it feels like quite a heavier lift to come back down 3-0 in a series than 3-0

in a game or whatever the equivalent would be from a wind probability perspective. So yeah, it's tough. I think that games can go to extras and, like we've had a game go to extras in this series, but when you're talking about coming back in a game, well, it's a, you know, that feels like it's limited, right? Like, but if you have to do it four times in a row, that's a lot harder, feels harder. It's more challenging. So yeah, you score seven runs in three games and it's hard to win any of those games. And I guess they've been closer in some of them than you would expect even given that offensive impotence.

But we'll return to the series as it proceeds as we continue to podcast this week. I guess we can keep this one on the semi short side as you did while I was away, just cause we're playing catch up here and we'll get this episode out and we know it will be out of date by the time we publish it. We're sorry. Hopefully you will bear with us in this recap anyway. And, uh, I had a bunch of notes and links and things I saw while I was away that I want to return to, but we can save that for a little later this week

or whenever we get to it, because pretty soon we're not going to have any Major League Baseball to talk about. And then we will need the notes that I have made in this little document to return to and draw your attention to, because we won't have World Series games to talk about. So I'll empty out that little file later this week or sometime soon once this is all resolved. Now, did you want to close with a little non-baseball PSA? I did want to close with a non-baseball PSA. And I, you know, have sort of hinted at this in the outros I did last week at the very end. And, you know, I think that people have been able to clock that there is a fair amount of election anxiety percolating beneath the surface of the pod. We talked

about doing this in advance. I'm not going rogue here. But I wanted to use the space that we have, the limited platform that is available to us to just remind people of the stakes of our election next week. We are a week out as we are recording this. I know that voting is a very blunt instrument. It is a blunt instrument, even at the local level, but particularly as it pertains to federal office and the presidency. And I know that there's been a great deal of nastiness in our politics over the last year and the last decade and really over the course of our entire existence as a country. And I know a lot of people personally who feel trepidation about participating in this election because of disagreements they have with both candidates.

I know plenty of progressives who have a really hard time squaring support for Kamala Harris with what's going on in Gaza. And I don't have a great answer to those concerns other than to say that I share them. But the blunt instrument you have at your disposal is one that I hope people will exercise in the next week. If you don't know how to vote where you live, you can go to vote.gov to verify your registration status, to find polling place information. The stakes of this election are severe for so many people in this country, people you love and care about, people you'll just pass on the street as we live here on this earth together. And so we just want to

use the space we have to implore people to participate and then to continue to do work in your local community and in our country to hold our elected officials to account because the work doesn't stop on election day, but the work on election day is important even with a blunt instrument. That's all I really wanted to say. CBer I echo that. Please vote. We've issued pro-voting PSAs on Effectively Wild before, and that'll at least who could get upset about, but even the stick to sports crowd. But look, I early voted yesterday and you can too. It is always easy to do once you look up where to go and what to do. It's generally pretty painless in my experience. And I always get a nice little pep in my step from voting. Now that may depend on the election and the candidates

and how enthusiastic you feel about the person you're casting a ballot for, but just the act of voting itself still in sort of Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, West Wing kind of way, it is a nice thing that we do and that we do in order to protect the ability to continue to do that, which is something that is potentially at stake in this election. LS. Actively on the ballot, I would argue. CB. Yeah, so we get it. People become a broken record, everyone is very tired. You have probably had other people in your ears telling you to do these things, but yeah, vote. You'll probably feel better having done it. We will be glad if we make one person go to their polling place that would not have otherwise and you can take us with you. You can stick us in your ears and we'll keep you company and blab about

baseball while you are filling in your little circles. And look, our politics as individuals are probably pretty easy to sort out having listened to a billion hours of us talking to you. So I know that us being a little coy about this is maybe frustrating. I know that for a lot of people, this has felt endless, right? Or unrelenting to my fellow swing state voters, like, we should be entitled to restitution from what we've had to watch, especially while watching sports. But yeah, for women, for people of color, for the LGBTQ community, for the environment, for education. Like the stakes are incredibly high here and I hope people will exercise what

levers they have because, boy, have I not been sleeping great. So yeah, vote.gov, vote early if you can, stay in line if you vote on election day. Remember, if you're in line, stay in line. The Yankee had a little line. And we are far more powerful as a collective than we are as individuals. And that's how we should view this project, as our individual part to a broader collective project. So let's go do it.

All right, we got out the vote and now we can get out. Well, of course, Game 4 was nothing like the first three. The Yankees got home run redemption. John Sterling got home run call redemption. As Hudson deals, swung on and hit in the air to left field and deep, that ball is high, it is far, it is gone! It's a grand slam! Anthony Volpe put a charge in one. Alright, a little bit of a voice crack and a mic bump there, but hey, who hasn't been

there? He called this one pretty conservatively. Volpe's Grand Slam was the sixth this postseason, that's a new record, and that was one of three home runs for the Yankees. So even though Freddie Freeman chipped in his Daily Dinger that's a new record, and that was one of three home runs for the Yankees. So even though Freddie Freeman chipped in his Daily Dinger, setting a new World Series record, homering in six straight World Series games, though obviously not all in the same series, the Yankees won going away 11-4, much more offense in game four for them than in

the first three games combined. All of four strikeouts by Yankees hitters. Aaron Judge, one for three with a walk, drove in that eleventh run with a single, continued to look to my eyes like he's kinda coming out of it, like he again has more than a passing familiarity with the concept of the strike zone. So Dodger's bullpen game didn't go so great. There's gonna be a game five, the Yankees are the first team, Sarah Lings tweeted, to force a game five after going down 3-0 in a World Series since the Reds in 1970 against the Orioles, there had been nine sweeps since.

Small sample, but still seems semi-improbable, so I wonder whether morale plays a role. But this was one of those games where the Yankees down three-zip, down two nothing in the game after Freeman homered. They could have thrown in the towel, the Dodgers had the vibes on their side, but then the vibes shifted. Our vibes are always good when people had the vibes on their side, but then the vibes shifted. Our vibes are always good when people support the podcast on Patreon, which you can do by going to Patreon.com slash Effectively Wild, as have the following five listeners who've already signed up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going,

help us stay ad-free, and get themselves access to some perks. Christopher Mitchell, James Binell, Craig Ruderman, Ryan Moore, and John Tolbert. Thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include access to the Effectively Wild Discord group for patrons only, monthly bonus episodes, prioritized email answers, autographed books, personalized messages, potential podcast appearances, discounts on merch and ad-free fan grass memberships, and so much more. Check out all the offerings at patreon.com slash Effectively Wild.

If you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us at the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions and comments to podcastatfangraphs.com. You can rate, review, and subscribe to Effectively Wild on iTunes and Spotify and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash group slash Effectively Wild.

You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at r slash Effectively Wild, and you can check on the show page or in your podcast tab for links to the stories and stats we cited today. We'll be back with another episode after game five, one way or another. We will talk to you then.

Effectively Wild is the only show I did hosted by Ben Lindberg and Meg Riley I wanna hear about Shohei Otani Or Mike Trout with three marks