Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2248: Target Acquired

Episode Date: November 23, 2024

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about how much Shohei Ohtani’s teammates helped him win his third MVP award, his incredible four-season stretch, whether Dekopin/Decoy is really his dog, the other MVP and Cy Young results, a Joey Meneses signing, Austin Slater and the virtues of being a team’s “top target,” the Rays’ confounding stadium […]

It's effectively wild and it's wildly effective. It put a baseball in the perfect perspective. Impressive for smart and impeccably styled. It's the wildly effective, effectively wildest. Spin rate along shangle, that of an award. You might hear something you never heard before. Hello and welcome to episode 2248 of Effectively Wild, a FanCrafts baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Raleigh of FanCrafts and I'm joined by Ben Lindberg of The Ringer.

Ben, how are you? I'm not too bad. I'm on the mend. How are you? I'm good. I have an iced coffee in an old spaghetti factory glass that is so adorable and Italian themed. Lovely.

If you hear a little clink of ice, do you hear it? I hear it now. It's like old radio. There's not a Foley artist off to the side on Effectively Wild making the sound of an iced coffee. That was you with an actual iced coffee. We don't have the budget for a Foley artist. Yeah.

No, I mean, or really interest, but we make do. So I was watching the video of Shohei Otani accepting his MVP award or being interviewed on MLB network after his win was announced. And he was sitting on the couch with his wife and their dog, nice little family. And the first thing he said very graciously and self-deprecatingly was about how he couldn't have done

it without his teammates. You know, whenever you ask Otani about a singular achievement, he will often deflect and make it about the team, right? He's not the worst offender in that respect that I've ever heard, which was probably Derek Jeter who I grew up with who just refused to ever acknowledge any individual accomplishment.

Everything was just about helping the team, helping the team, which, okay, we get it. You're a team player. It's eye wash at a certain point. And there's a little bit of that going on with Shohei here, but not egregious, you know, he just pivoted quickly to, I just wanted to help the team, we won the World Series, et cetera, right?

But the first thing he said, at least as the interpreter translated it was, I wouldn't have been able to receive this award if it weren't for my teammates. And I was thinking about in what way, if any, that is true. Because he's a DH. He didn't win this as a two-way player. He didn't win it for his pitching performance

where you might say, oh, I needed the defensive support or bullpen support or something. He's just a DH. So in what way? Just a DH. Just a DH. Yes. So, so how did he need his teammates to win this award?

Exactly. That's what I'm trying to figure out. And the best I can come up with is that he did need the Dodgers to field a regulation roster. He did need the appropriate number of people to be on the field in the game, or else they would have forfeited and his stats could not have been compiled.

So I guess in that case, in that sense, it is true technically that he would not have been able to receive this award if it weren't for his teammates. If he had no teammates, then the Dodgers would not have been able to receive this award if it weren't for his teammates. If he had no teammates, then the Dodgers would not have been able to field a team and he would not have been able to play. So I think it is accurate. You are so cynical, Ben. You need to tap into baseball's traditions to understand a statement like this. Can I lay something on you here? Maybe Otani feels very strongly about the descriptive power, the vote moving power of RBI as a stat.

He led the National League in RBI last year. I'm saying RBI, not RBIs. Because I live in a society, even if I'm over here largely by myself these days. No, but he led the National League in RBI. I don't know, led baseball and runs. Yep, couldn't have done either of those things. It's true with that teammates. Yeah, he could have scored 54 runs, I suppose, Yep. Couldn't have done either of those things. Couldn't have done either of those things. It's true, without teammates.

He could have scored 54 runs, I suppose, because that's how many homers he hit. Home runs he hit. And he could have driven in 54 runs, just himself. But it's true, if he had scored only 54 runs and had 54 RBI, probably voters would have frowned on that even now. He was a leadoff hitter. They might have said, okay, there weren't a lot of people on base ahead of him, I think that's a big thing for the RBI. Probably voters would have frowned on that even now. No, you know, he was a leadoff hitter. They might've said, okay, there weren't a lot of people on base ahead of him,

but people would have looked askance at him if he had scored and driven in only that number of runs. It would have been hard to really refer to him as a run producer. Right. And look, do I think that today's MVP voters are single issue voters and that single issue is RBI as a stat? No, I'm not insane. But you know, if we are trying to search for a stat that he truly did exhibit some amount of dependence on his teammates around, it would be those two. Here's another way. This one harder to measure, Ben.

BF. A little lineup protection here, potentially? LS. Lineup protection, sure. I was going to go to the heart of the man though, and say that when it was all said and done, 2024 ended up being a pretty good year for Shoaib Ohtani. But it was not without its challenges, particularly in the early going, right? There was, lest we forget, a massive scandal in his orbit, one that we worried at times would be career and legacy altering for him. While you're correct to note that he did not pitch in a competitive setting this season, was not a two-way guy, he was in parallel to his MVP winning season was attempting rehab

from a major surgery. And I imagine that his teammates and the Dodgers organization writ large were very important to him being able to navigate both of those things. Yeah, you make a good point. Where would he be without, you know, his teammates, the training staff, all of the doctors, you know, the various members of the PR staff? Where would he be? He'd be probably in a worse place.

There is always some amount of eyewash. And it's funny what we expect of these guys, right? Because you know, you're over here talking about how obviously, I don't know that you didn't use the word fraudulent, but how much of Jeter's whole thing was affectation, was artifice in some important way. But then when these guys are out there talking about how they're the greatest,

we look kind of askance at them also. The Venn diagram of people who occupy those two positions is in a circle, and maybe you wouldn't have looked at Jeter any old way, but the way you were looking at him if he had said, well, you know, of course I won MVP. I'm the best, I'm the greatest, but a lot of people find that sort of tasteless. So what do you do?

You say, I couldn't have done it without them. And to what degree? Who knows? But to some important degree, maybe that's true. You've convinced me. It's true. His teammates were not sitting on the couch with him there. And I'm sure that Mamiko and Dekopin helped him get through this challenging at times

of the film season. We're gonna talk about the dog in a second. Don't you worry. Well, they may have helped prop up his spirits even more than his teammates, but yes, I'm sure his teammates played a pivotal role there. I bet his wife did, not that dog, but. Oh really?

Gosh, I would say. We're gonna talk about it. Okay. This is gonna be a more controversial take than whatever I'm saying here about Otani's quote, but I agree. And Dave Roberts said something at some point to the effect of, you know, he's kind of like let down his guard more.

He's just been so accessible. He's been palling around with everyone because he didn't have Ipe as this sort of a buffer surrounding him at all times. Oh, interesting. Yeah, I don't know how true that is or whether Otani would agree with that, but he was sort of more self-sufficient, I guess. Not just when it comes to his financial arrangements, hopefully, but also his interpersonal interactions. So yeah, I think that's a good point. You can, you know, it's a grind,

even if you're Shohei Otani, maybe especially if you're Shohei Otani and your teammates help get you through. And I guess you could say, yeah, it didn't hurt maybe having Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman batting behind him. Sure. He did say after that initial quote that I just read,

he kind of continued in the same vein. I wouldn't have been able to receive this award if it weren't for my teammates. And then he said, obviously, if my teammates weren't there and we didn't play as a team, we would not have even got to the playoffs or won the World Series, which is very true. If his, again, that's kind of what I was saying. If his teammates weren't there, if they no showed, he would not have been able to play baseball in the majors by himself, single-handedly, you showed, he would not have been able to play baseball in the majors by himself

single-handedly. He could come as close to doing that as anyone in the league, but they would not allow him to do that. And so, yes, he almost said that. If my teammates weren't there, yeah, he couldn't have single-handedly won the World Series most likely. So he said, I'm just taking this as I'm representing the team receiving this award. That's a nice sentiment. And he said he came into the year, not with his mind on winning the MVP, which I believe, uh, you know, he sets goals for himself.

It was probably somewhere in the back of his head there. Everyone knows about the goals he set for himself as a kid, right? And you've seen the doodles and the matrix that he made of everything he wanted to accomplish by certain times in his life. And there were individual accomplishments on that list. So I'm sure there was part of him that said, I hope I have an MVP season, you know?

But, and when he was asked at the end of the interview, if Asai Young is next, if that's his next goal, he did acknowledge, of course, that would be great, but I want to win another World Series, right? As long as he acknowledged the human thing, which is, yeah, why wouldn't I want to be the best pitcher in baseball? That'd be cool. But then he then pivoted to the team goal. All right. So we've established that he did need teammates. It just stood out to me in the moment because I'm thinking this is like the definition of an individual award, probably even more so than it used to be when it was much more

dependent on whether you made the playoffs and what your RBI total was. Voters really did use to consider more than they do now, I think, things that are pretty teammate dependent. And now it is really much more of an individual word So I was trying to just parse out how that might be true and you know, I think you've convinced me it's true enough now What's your latest gripe with the dog? Okay. I don't look I want to be clear. I don't have any issue with the dog I mean, it's a weird dog. There's something wrong with that dog but like that feels like the dog's business that not mine. Where I have landed, I'm not the originator of this particular conspiracy, but I think that I have been convinced of this.

The decoy is literally a decoy. I don't think that there's any relationship between that dog and Otani. I think that- It's just for show. This is just a- Yeah. It is literally for show. I don't think that that dog spends any time with them outside of PR opportunities because the speed with which that dog was like, I'm going to get out of here.

And look, they're putting the evidence in plain sight, Ben. It was on MLB's Instagram. They were like, the dog noped out. I mean, it didn't say it like that, but they kind of did in that weird way that they like I'm like Yeah, I'm not convinced that person who runs this account talks like this in real life But the MV pup was over it and then decoy like Bounds off the couch and is like bye and I think it is because decoys like I don't know these people My last interaction was throwing out a first pitch before that, this guy that I

only see occasionally gave me a tiny little backpack, which is adorable. And so I think that, and look, I don't think the dog is like left on the side of the road in between PR opportunities. I think that the dog is well taken care of, but here's the thing. Here's the thing. I do not think that he is taken care of by Shohei or his wife. I think it's a decoy dog because look, this guy had a weird year, his close confidant betrayed his trust, had been betraying his trust over years and part of the reaction to him, part of the And part of the reaction to him, part of the willingness and sort of, I would even say fervor in some quarters to believe that this guy who is so talented was actually like a degenerate gambler was because he guards his privacy so carefully.

And we have, he was just like a blank slate of a guy. We didn't really know anything about him, right? Other than like these carefully manicured moments, he never talks to the press. It's actually a problem within the BBWAA, like he does not fulfill his obligations under the Collector Bargaining Agreement. But I think that they were like, look, we got to give him something. And so they found this dog, this perfect weird dog. It could be a robot for all I know, but if he is, I hope he's still living his best life. I mean, like this isn't their house, right? I assume this is Nez's house. I don't think this is where they live.

So you think it's Nez's dog or do you think Shohei's agent? You think it's just some family? I don't know who. He has a home. And then every now and then that Shohei's agent, you think it's just some family? I don't know who. He has a home and then every now and then, Shohei is like, we need a photo op here. Yeah, and I don't think that Otani dislikes this dog. He seems to like the dog fine. And the dog seems to like him fine.

I just am saying that I don't think that he has any day-to-day responsibility for this dog and it might not even live with him. I don't know who it lives with. I need answers. I want to know Decoy's story, but I think that it is, this is a fraudulent dog. I'm just saying it's a fraud dog. I think if this were true, Portia the show bae would have sniffed this out and alerted me to the fact that this is a fraud dog. I believe it, I don't subscribe to this conspiracy theory. I think this is a normal, loving, full-time,

human, canine relationship here. And I will say, when I said show dog, I was not trying to make a show hey pun, it just slipped out. It just slipped out. But that is what you're insinuating here, that it's a show business dog. The biggest piece of evidence against my conspiracy theory,

and I will admit that it is a compelling one because it is part of a federal criminal proceeding, is that Otani walking the dog was referenced in the complaint against Ipe. Now, that is a compelling piece of evidence. I will admit, I don't know how to square that one, you know? I just don't. I'm not a conspiracy person, but I'm just saying there's something wrong with that dog. It was like, MVPub was over it, MVPub was like, I have fulfilled my

contractual obligations, MLB Instagram account. As a dog lover and companion, I can tell you that dogs do not always pose for portraits. Now there may be better than cats in that respect, which you probably have some experience with. Wow. But my dog is on my lap as we record and seems quite content there. And yet there have certainly been times when we have attempted to get her to sit somewhere for a certain time and she absolutely categorically refused to do that. It wasn't because we were virtual strangers and this was some sort of arranged showbiz relationship

like two pop starlets who are in it to increase their clout and don't actually know each other in real life. This is not a choreographed, this is not some kind of kabuki here. This is just how animals behave at times. You're not Mickey Rennie in this instance. I will not, I will absolutely not allow for this sort of slander. Cats are the perfect photo subject

because they're always asleep, Ben. They just sit there and sleep. They're like, hey mommy, I had to wake you up at four in the morning, feed me, feed me, feed me. I'm gonna go back to my all day nap. You know, how dare you? But if you attempt to pose them or move them. Well you don't attempt to pose them.

Yeah. You know, like you just say, you just go, and then they look at you and then you take a picture. It's, look, anyone who can't get good pictures of their cats, that's a skill issue. Okay. It's not about the cats or their willingness to be photographed. I am furious. So it's not a still image. This was a remote video interview. I understand. I understand. I'm just saying there's something about that dog that suggests to me that there is very little relationship between Otani and that dog. I'm just saying there's something about that dog that suggests to me that there is very

little relationship between Otani and that dog. I do not, I don't, it's not- The dog is uncannily cute and well-behaved seemingly except for in this instance perhaps, but I will give you that, that the dog seems exceedingly well-trained and well-groomed, but then I would expect no less of the actual dog of Shohei Otani. Anyway, I was reminiscing about the fact that I actually doubted Shohei Otani's ability to do this. I know. On episode 2140 in March,

it was actually the episode when the news about Ipei broke as we were recording and we live reacted to it. But we had- What a day that was, man. But we had already bantered about Otani to begin that episode because- Isn't that episode like seven hours long or something? We were like, so sorry, Shane,

but guess what you're doing the rest of your day. I think, didn't we do a bonus episode? I think we maybe did. I think we did a literal emergency pod. Because it was one, yeah. But we had talked about the fact that Otani had I think the third best odds to win MVP according to one of the big sports books.

And I was skeptical. Who's had more faith in Shohei than I have on his biggest believer, and yet I didn't fully believe that he could do that. I think we acknowledged that his hitting alone led the AL in war last year. So it wasn't completely preposterous that he could do it again, but he did that as a two-way player. And I just, I wasn't sure if DH only rehabbing from an injury and having raised the bar for himself, that he could actually do it as a DH. And what I said at the time,

and I'm quoting from the Effectively Wild Wiki here, apparently I said, it would have to feel like he leveled up somehow over his previous MVP seasons for people to consider him for a third, and he did, that's exactly what happened. He leveled up the speed aspect and he became the first 50-50 guy and that was that.

So he proved me even too skeptical, I guess, which I didn't think could happen, but he has really just had an unbelievable run. It's just in retrospect now, it's been four years since his first fully operational full season and he's one 62 homer Aaron Judd season away from winning MVP in all four of those years. It's just, you know, now he has joined Frank Robinson as the only player to win at least

one MVP in each league. I thought Mookie might be the one to do that. Maybe he still will be, but Shohei did it. He is, I guess he's one of a bunch of guys who have won three wards now. Bonds is the only one who has won more than three. He is the first player to have won unanimously three times. And how could you quibble with these wins? So really all the hopes and

dreams he has fulfilled them if not exceeded them. Yeah. And to your point, like I do recall a good bit of our skepticism of his ability to do it this year being focused around the DH of it all. It was less a lack of confidence in Ohtani than it was just an acknowledgement that when you're a DH only guy, that's a, well, previously sort of untrod path. And that our understanding of what he is capable of was going to color people's perception of that season fairly or not. And then it turned out that he was like, Hey, hold my beer. I don't know if he even drinks beer, but he was like, Hey, hold my beer.

I'm going to be amazing and have this fake dog, you know? And then we were like, okay, we're going to buy all of it, including the fake dog, except for me. I'm not alone in my skepticism of that dog. Actually, I want to, I want to be clear to our listeners that there are, we are legion. We are at least three. There are at least three of us. He was not the top projected player in the national league.

I think he was maybe third by war according to the fan graphs, the preseason depth charts. It's like for a DH only. Yeah, it's still amazing. We know what's up, we love Tony. We're ready with stuff. I think skeins may have actually had the highest projection of anyone. Yeah, the projection systems are, I'm sorry, but the only appropriate word

is horny for Paul Skeins. They are unabashedly horny. They are horny for Skeins in the way that you are. Nevermind. Moving on. I have very little else to say about the big awards because they were so predictable. Other than the people who won them are big? Yes, that is true. But three of the four, the MVP's and Tsai Yung's were unanimous. And the one that wasn't was close. It was what, 26 out of 30 first place votes

going to Chris Sale over Zach Wheeler. So this was all at various times and points in the season. It seemed like these were really interesting races and we talked about them and there were legitimate cases for other people, but by the time the dust settled, it was pretty clear who was going to win and who should win. And they did win. So I don't have much of a reaction to the results, except to say, I guess,

that congrats to Chris Sale. You know, he's been kind of the like Chris Sale never won a Cy Young guy, you know, which surprised everyone because he came close so many times and was the sort of thing that could be held against him post-career, never won a Cy Young. That would be like the one asterisk or caveat on his resume. And just by coming back and reestablishing himself as a great pitcher, let alone the best pitcher in the league, he did a lot of favors for his legacy, for his Hall of Fame case, et cetera. So, and you know, that totally took me by surprise too. It wasn't as if he had been bad while healthy really.

So he was still one of these guys that you kind of thought to yourself, if he could just get healthy, maybe he'd be good again. But who really believed that he could get healthy? And he did for almost all of the season, except for the very end, what it would have been handy to have him. But that's not the first time that that has happened, but really an incredible resurgence

and kind of a classic change of scenery and kudos to him and to Atlanta for doing whatever the Braves did to help rehabilitate him. So I do kind of feel bad for Wheeler who maybe almost takes sales place now in the conversation of best active pitcher not to have won his I Young Award. Haven't I said that? I think I have. Maybe you have. Yeah.

And you know, he has come close a bunch of times too, so maybe he will break through one of these years. It was close and you could say that 26 out of 30 first place votes going to SAIL maybe distorts how much of a difference between their seasons there was. You could certainly say that, but I think it's one of these cases where, yes, that is true, but also if SAIL was even a little bit better, then why wouldn't the vast majority of people vote for the guy who is a little bit better, even acknowledging it doesn't necessarily reflect the closeness. It just reflects that, well, one guy was better.

And even if he was just a little bit better, then you still would think that there'd be a consensus and most people would vote for the guy who was a little bit better. So the Femgraf's War had sale one win ahead. And then the RA9, the runs allowed based wars had him essentially tied with Wheeler. And Wheeler threw 20 plus more innings, which that's something that War accounts for. Sometimes I see people treat it almost as if it's like a separate thing. Yes, thank you. It is at the end of the day counting stat.

He had a better War, but I like to prioritize the innings. It's like, yeah, I know like he had a better war, but I like to prioritize the innings. It's like, yeah, so do I. And so does war. So does war. It's in there. I guess you could argue maybe that it doesn't account for it as well as it should potentially, like just in terms of the value it provides over a long season and sparing the bullpen and who else would those innings go to or something.

But obviously it does factor it in pretty heavily. So yeah, it's not neglected by us stat heads. We do actually highly value that quality. But yeah. Right in there. I often am frustrated by that. And I want to be fair to the people who are making that argument because I know what they mean, right? That you can have a, what was it, Corbin Byrnes in 2021? Was that the year that he had such a low total and he still won a Cy Young? What they are looking for is an all-encompassing stat that like doesn't allow for that to happen. But I would say in response to those folks that, you know, I am the managing editor of

Fandraths and I would encourage every award voter, regardless of which award and regardless of the year to, you know, I think war is a really good starting point for your evaluation of various players as you're embarking on that decision, it shouldn't be the only thing you look at. And so you can look at war and then you can, as you are preparing your ballot, say to yourself, yeah, but that guy threw like 50 more innings and they were really good innings. And you can make that mental adjustment for yourself if you feel that you need to. But don't say that it doesn't care about you. You got to play to accumulate war, Ben. Yes.

That's the thing about it. Yeah, it is. It's a slight double counting, maybe, if you give an extra bonus to the bulk when war does account for that. It just, in theory, at least, and I think pretty well in practice, balances the bulk and the efficiency. And you wanna have a combination of both of those things if you're gonna be a Cy Young contender. But yeah, it was not that clear cut a case.

And maybe it was the fact that, I don't know, Wheeler, not that he had a bad first half or anything, but he probably pitched even better as the year went on and made it even closer, I think, after everyone had kind of accepted Sale as the winner already. Yeah. Not that Sale had a bad second half either. He continued to be great.

He just pitched a little less, right? And so Wheeler kind of overtook him a little bit in the value stats, but everyone had sort of already inaugurated Sale and it was assumed that Sale was sailing to the victory. And then it ended up being close kind of after people had made up their minds. So I'm not saying the Cy Young voters themselves just made up their minds early and didn't do their research.

I'm sure they did, but I didn't even realize until the end of the season how close it really was until I actually kind of studied it and said, oh, yeah, Wheeler, he has an actual case here, probably not a winning or convincing case, but a case. But a case, yeah. Yeah. And it was not the most impressive year for individual pitching seasons. Sale was great, Wheeler was great, Tarek Schubel, who won unanimously in the AL, was

great, but the pitching performance is kind of paled in comparison to Otani and Judge especially, but then also Soto and Lindor, etc. Gunnar Henderson, just a lot of MVP caliber seasons and you only get two MVPs. You do only get two MVPs, that's the thing about it. Speaking of people who have been the best players in baseball, there was some news about Joey Meneses that many people sent to me via various channels. It got attention on Blue Sky even.

Yeah, it was- No, you're not on there, really. No, I'm seeing notifications there. I'm just trying to figure out. I don't have my notifications turned on. That's a... No, I don't have them not turned on. Okay, I was going to say.

I disable as many notifications as I can, but if you send me something on there, I'll see it. I just haven't quite taken the plunge to posting because I've kind of cut back on posting across the board and the idea of posting in a new place, even if it seems like a welcoming place, it's just, there's a mental hurdle there where do I want to get involved, get invested in another relationship with a social media site at this point in my life?

Probably though, but yeah. I love how resigned you are to it. You don't have to post, Ben. As I noted to you, I have been doing a great job of remembering to post our podcast. Yes, you have, I appreciate that. But I feel like I'd be letting people down because thousands of people have followed me.

I haven't even posted a thing, which is a nice vote of confidence that they think I'm gonna be worth following at some point on there. So I feel like I'd be letting them down if I actually never posted anything, but it's a nice little boost to see myself gaining lots of followers without actually doing anything there. Anyway, the news was the Mets agreed to minor league deals with Joey Meneses and also a

Hobie, Hobie Harris. They're both going to be New York Mets. And as a number of people joked, Oh, this must mean the Mets are out of the Soto sweepstakes because of course, Joey Meneses is the guy you get to replace Juan Soto. Not the guy you get if you're also going to sign Juan Soto. So just, you know, happy to see him finding work. And, uh, for his sake, I guess I hope the Mets don't sign Soto cause that would probably hurt his chances of getting

literally playing time again. I guess what will really be kind of a rubber meets the road moment for us is we're going to have a minor league free agent draft coming up in the not too distant future sometime before the end of the year and Joey Manessas is eligible. He is on the baseball America minor league free agents list. And I don't know what to do because you know, I'm in it to win it.

This is that serious business. I am not just like giving nepotism picks and fond favorites of mine. Like I need every roster spot to contribute. And so I have to evaluate in a cold, dispassionate way. And yet the temptation to roster Joey Manessas might be too strong for me, but then what if someone else vultures Joey Manessas for me, like can I claim him? Do I get dibs?

No, no one gets dibs on anyone in the minor league free agent draft. It's a free agent draft. It's a free for all. So that's a high stakes thing for me. I might, I'd feel bad if I lost him. I'd feel even worse if I passed up the opportunity to add him. I'm reticent to discuss this subject because I have not decided one, what I think of his likely playing time. And I also candidly have not decided

how much of a mercenary I want to be. And so I don't know what to tell you, Ben. I think sit with your board, do your evals, but also go with your heart. There's an argument to be made for, and I'm, I want to be clear before I dispense this advice that I no longer play fantasy baseball or anything for that matter and was bad at it when I did. But I do think that there is something to be said for taking guys you want to root for, there's something psychically satisfying about that. That's part of why, apart from any weird, you know, tortured moral arguments, I don't mean to say that you should like draft monsters or that a reticence to do that is like an affectation or a silly, but like, you know, there's always this conversation

that people have, like, what do I do about the monsters, the people who've proven themselves to be bad people? Do I draft those guys if they're talented? And I think that that's a conundrum a lot of people face. And I have always been of the mind that, one, it feels kind of icky to profit from garbage people. But also, do you want to root for that guy? You don't want to root for that guy to score touchdowns.

It's like when people were drafting Deshaun Watson, I'm like, why? You don't, not rooting for him. Like he seems like a real bad guy. He shouldn't be playing. So I think that Joey Meneses brings you joy, you know, you like that guy. He makes you happy. And so it's fine to say, is it the best pick? None of the, none of the minor league free agent draft picks are good.

Like that's the other thing to keep in mind. They're not good picks. I mean, they're ones that are like- You're making the best of the bad situations. Yeah, like quite often it's the people who surprise you, who end up doing the most work for your team. Now there are obvious exceptions to that rule. Like we all remember the Jose Iglesias pick, but in general, these are guys on the back nine

of their careers. So just pick dudes you want to root for. I was excited to root for Brent Honeywell in the year that I dominated the minor league free agent draft. He didn't even have the great hair yet. He wasn't even doing the perm. It had to have been a perm, right? Did he perm his hair?

Did somebody ask him? Someone should have asked him, you know? And as an aside, all you baseball writers, now is the time to ask Walker Bueller about his pants. This is the moment, you know? Maybe wait until he signs somewhere, but then ask him about his pants, you know? Like anyhow, all of that to say,

go where your heart tells you and also know that my heart has not rendered a verdict on what it tells me yet. So I might be happy to let you have him or I might get in your way. I don't know yet. Just don't know. Yeah, the thing is,

I will be rooting for Joey Meneses regardless. Right, so you don't need the pick necessarily. No, I'll be happy for him even if I'm not personally benefiting from his playing time. And so maybe I could maximize my happiness by picking up someone else who otherwise I wouldn't really have a stake in the success of. And this way I root for them because it benefits me as well. So from a utilitarian perspective, maybe I should sign someone who is not Joey Meneses just to maximize my joy, but we'll see. We'll cross that bridge when we come to that draft, which won't be for a little while, although I think on our

next episode we will be reviewing the results of last year's draft, and along with the results of our preseason bold predictions. So that's something I look forward to. Look forward to being reminded about what I predicted and who I drafted, because let me tell you, out one ear, in one ear, out the other, I don't know. It's moved beyond the range of my ears. Now here was another topic of conversation

in baseball circles, including our listeners circles on Thursday. Did you hear about what Austin Slater said about the White Sox's interest in him prior to his signing with that team? I sure did not. Well, he was, you didn't hear about something Austin Slater said about the White Sox?

Where have you been? Austin, no, he signed with the White Sox. I'm so happy to learn that news. Good job, Austin. Way to go, bud. Chicago's a great city. That happens. He's a great city. That happens.

He signed a one year, $1.75 million deal with a potential extra half million in performance bonuses. But he said on a Zoom with reporters, and I quote, free agency started and the White Sox were the first team to reach out. They told me I was their top target. And that was, see that laugh, that scoff there. Yeah, that was kind of a collective laugh

that the internet had at Slater's expense. Not really Slater's expense, more the White Sox's expense. But they told me I was a little bit that Slater too. They told me I was their top target and that was super encouraging. I think that meant a lot considering how difficult I felt last year went. So yeah, Austin Slater, he had a sub replacement level season. Uh, he didn't play a full season.

He played for three teams, so he was moving around a bunch. And on the whole, he had a 76 WRC plus and a negative 0.1 wins above replacement or below in this case in his age 31 season in 84 games 212 play appearances so it was not good and I imagine that it it might have felt good coming off a season like that to hear from a team immediately after you become available and for that team to say, you're our top target. But of course, that's pretty depressing potentially for White Sox fans. If true, if the highlight of your off season, like your number one guy is Austin Slater, top on your prefliss, number one on the board.

Now of course, there could be a little bit of a game of telephone or Zoom happening here. We're hearing the second hand from Slater. So maybe he's paraphrasing. Maybe that's not exactly how they expressed it. And as James Fegan noted in his piece for Socks Machine, top target could be assumed to mean for this specific role. I don't know what the role is exactly like backup outfielder. Yeah, he's probably going to be their fourth outfielder.

Yeah. So I mean, yeah, that, that would be a very different message. Like you're our top target as a fourth outfielder, as opposed to just, you're our top target, no qualifier. So, so James is saying the White Sox, they have expressed an interest in adding an innings eater of some sorts. Uh, this won't be the only player they pick up presumably. So maybe they meant top target in a targeted way that like, you know, you're our top target for this specific role and roster spots, but I don't know whether that's true or not, but I guess let's assume

I don't know whether that's true or not, but I guess let's assume that it wasn't, or, you know, let's assume that you were a pretty middling player coming off a down year and a team reached out to you and said, you're our top target and didn't qualify it in any way. So you're just free to assume that they mean of all possible players. Yeah. You're, you're there number one. Would that be something that you wanted to hear? Would that be super encouraging or would that be discouraging?

Would that make you more likely to sign with this team or less? Would you be like, that's flattering. It's nice to be believed in. I'm glad you like me so much, but, but me, I'm your top target. What does that say about the state of the team and your organization? Like unless the team is so good already that they don't need anyone. And then it's like, you know, we've got this championship level core here. We just got to fill in around the margins of the roster.

We, we need a bench bat and you're a top target. Okay, fine. If you've got an MVP stacked rest of your roster, we need a bench bat and you're a top target. Okay, fine. If you've got an MVP stacked rest of your roster, but if you're the white socks and you're coming off one of the worst seasons of all time, and then that team tells you that you're their top target and you're coming off a objectively pretty bad season, is that an inducement or the opposite? Oh gosh, I feel so mean to Austin Slater.

Well, look, I think it still feels nice to be wanted. I imagine that Austin Slater is like aware of where he stands in the broader major league pecking order, right? I don't think that he's ever seemed particularly disconnected from the reality of his career. Now I know he has had years that were better than this one, right? Some of them were meaningfully better than this one, but his best full season, right? He put up a 150 WRC plus in the COVID year, but he only played 31 games that season. His best season was his 2022. He played 125 games.

He put up a 124 WRC plus. He isn't a particularly good outfielder, at least not by the defensive metric. Even though he had a 124 WRC plus, it was a two-win season. Austin Slater has never been an MVP candidate, right? I think he knows that he is a, he's a fourth outfielder, right? That's his role. That's his, that's been his role. And you know, those guys need jobs too.

And, uh, again, he gets to, he gets to go live in a wonderful city. He traded one wonderful city. I mean, he bounced around a good bit last year and I will say, like, he gets to go live in a wonderful city. He traded one wonderful city. I mean, he bounced around a good bit last year. And I will say, like he was traded for, he was acquired at points last year, you know? So he's been wanted before, and this feels like the same level of being wanted, right? You know, if you're Austin Slater and you get traded to the Reds for a relief pitcher, okay, that sounds like what Austin Slater nets in trade, or you get acquired by the Orioles later that month

for LeVon Soto cash. Yeah, that sounds about right. That's nice, but that doesn't necessarily mean you were their top target to be number one. If he has an appreciation of where he stands in the firmament of baseball players, then you think it could be disconcerting if someone said you're our top target, set your sights higher.

Right, but he also has an understanding of where the White Sox stack up in the firmament, right? But that guarantees, okay, they're not going to be much better than they were then in that case, if they're coming off that season and I'm the top target. But I'm sure he knows that, you know? I think basically what I'm trying to say is it sounds like Austin Slater is getting exactly what

Austin Slater needs, which is a guaranteed major league contract, an opportunity to accumulate playing time. And if you're Austin Slater needs, which is a guaranteed major league contract, an opportunity to accumulate playing time. And if you're Austin Slater, you're probably like, sure, I'm their top target. I'm a fourth outfielder. I'm exactly the kind of guy where if I have a good season, I get flipped at the deadline and I go live somewhere else. If I'm Austin Slater, I'm fine with it. I'm fine with it. I think I'd be fine with it too because I think, look, I'd be looking out for number one most of the time, if I'm a baseball player, you know, although you

probably wouldn't catch me being the eyewash guy talking, deflecting anytime I did anything good, not that I'm the most self-aggrandizing person, I don't think either, but I just, you know, in my own athletic career, I didn't care that much about my team's fortunes. I was just kind of wanting to have fun, which like wouldn't be the case for most major leaguers because you probably don't even get to that point if that's your mindset about sports. I recognize that. But at the time, at least, I wanted to do well and I certainly didn't want my teammates to do poorly, you know, by all means, let

them do well too. But if we lost the game, I wasn't too broken up about it at that level. What difference did it make? I guess I had the, I took the long view, which, you know, you can't always do when you're a kid and, uh, your championship seems like it means as much as anyone's championship means to them, even if

they're in the big leagues. So I don't want to discount that either, but that wasn't my personal priority, I suppose. So if I were in Austin Slater's position, yeah, I'd want a good salary and a just about guaranteed gig and a path to playing time. And those would probably be highest on my free agent wish list. And so if someone said you're a top target, I would be heartened by that. Now I couldn't pretend, I guess,

that winning a World Series was my number one goal either. If I was hearing that as Austin Slater, he hasn't won one. He's been in the playoffs a couple of times, including this year, in fact. But yeah, if that's your goal, like gotta get a ring, then I probably wouldn't wanna hear me, I'm your But yeah, if that's your goal, like got to get a ring, then I probably wouldn't want to hear me, I'm your top target coming off that season. Cause you know that you're not going anywhere. But if your priority is not to have to go anywhere mid season, I guess if he does well,

this is a, he'll probably be flipped again. Right. I would think so. And so maybe he thinks that too, like, hey, if I play well, then I'll end up on a competitive team and it'll all work out. So I will have restored my value and got myself a salary and then some other team will want me that is actually in the race. So it'll all work out. As a White Sox fan, if you're hearing that,

and if you're reading it in the very literal way, then it's depressing. But then again, what were you expecting, I guess? Right. And I was also going to say, I think that what were you expecting, but also you got bigger problems than Austin Slater, man. You're looking at far worse in all likelihood than Austin Slater. Yeah. And if Austin Slater is the number one remedy, then that guarantees that those problems will persist, which is one way you could read this if you're taking the uncharitable interpretation, which it's the white socks, so I wouldn't blame you for doing that. Yeah. Why would you be charitable?

Speaking of a lack of charity and a lack of uncharitable or charitable interpretations, the Rays have lost my sympathy, I think, at this point. Wow. Did you let Jeff know? Not Jeff personally. I don't hold him responsible for the team's public messaging, but I felt for them. They're in the path of the storm and their plans are disrupted and the trap is unplayable and they're in this tough spot.

They got to spend 2025 in a minor league park and they've got to get money to fix the roof for 2026. And there's all this uncertainty with the ballpark situation for 2028 and beyond and natural disasters galore felt bad for the team and it's still kind of a crappy situation to be in, but it seems as if they are not doing much to make it better. It seems as if they are provoking, if anything, the council that controls the bonds that have to be issued to make this ballpark situation work out. They've just been very aggro about it. And I don't totally understand the approach that they're taking here.

So we talked about how this was more tenuous now because there was an election and the makeup of the commission changed. And so it wasn't necessarily as the Pinellas County commission is not necessarily made up of people who are as supportive as the commission was when it initially agreed to issue those bonds that seemed to make it a more or less done deal that this stadium would happen. And so, okay, maybe they're feeling some uncertainty and then the vote was delayed, the vote about whether to approve selling the hundreds of millions of dollars in bonds

that would make this happen. And they didn't say they weren't gonna do it, they just tabled it through that meeting. They kicked the can down the road. And the raise, I guess, either anticipating that the vote wasn't gonna happen or that this was just a delay tactic before an inevitable rejection or something, they delivered a letter in advance of the next meeting that the commission was having, this very sort of snippy letter, taking issue with

the way the commission was going about this. They said they were saddened and stunned by the delays in financing and that it could upend the deal and make it unlikely that a new stadium could be ready for 2028. And they said that they've spent more than 50 million out of pocket preparing for the new stadium somehow. They didn't specify how exactly and that a 2029 ballpark delivery would result in significantly higher costs that we are not able to absorb alone. And they just delivered this to the commission, evidently without talking to the commission, like the commission hadn't heard from them. They just read about this response from the Rays, this broadside, the salvo that was sent and the commission seemed confused

about why the Rays were like seeming to take a pretty confrontational tack with this letter and why they went about this way and just put it out to the press like this. So this was odd. And then the commission met again and initially approved the funds for the repair of the roof and then took a recess or something as they were then going to come back to address the bonds

issue for the future ballpark. So they approved the funds to repair the roof. And then like in the break between when the commission was deliberating about these two separate ballpark issues, Rays president Brian Auld spoke with journalists and indicated that the Rays would prefer that the trap not be repaired. What? Yeah. And the tweet from a reporter Evan Axelbank said, the Rays just said the deal to build a new stadium is off. They can't make it by 2028 and they would even prefer the city not fix the trap so they can file a damages claim and play elsewhere until at least 2028. But they say they're committed to staying in Tampa Bay.

So he says this during this brief recess and then the commission comes back and they're like, wait, you don't want the money that we just approved? And then the commission rescinded their approval of that funding to repair the chop's roof unanimously. And so now nothing is approved. And I don't know if the razor just like putting their feet in their mouth here, or if they have ulterior motives, like are they trying to engineer an exit?

Do they actually want to get out of town? Do they think they have a better opening elsewhere? Do they think they have to do this sort of saber rattling stuff because there might be fence sitters on the commission and maybe they're overplaying their hands? Are they not really committed to the area or what? Cause it just, it seems like they're being pretty petulant about this and pretty entitled and given everything that that area has gone through and all

the other demands on public funding and everything. It's not as if they needed to have these funds approved immediately. I don't think. We're talking about 2028, right? And the initial agreement to build the stadium, as I understand it, didn't require the issuance of the bonds to take place until next March. So it wasn't like the deadline was passed or something. Maybe they were dragging their feet a little, but there was this time that was built in and the raise, it seems like they're kind of throwing a tantrum because they didn't get

what they wanted immediately or as much as they wanted. Meanwhile, the city's trying to repair all of this storm damage and infrastructure issues and trying to shore up everything for the inevitable next hurricane that comes through. It just, it reads very much like you're kind of typical sports owner acting as if they're entitled to unlimited public funds whenever they want them. So if I'm misinterpreting this in some way, I'm not the only

one who has interpreted it this way, but it has, uh, meet me a little less sympathetic to the plight of the team. The plight is still the same, but my level of sympathy for ownership, at least, is not given the tone that it's taken. LS I do want to be careful to not assume that I understand sort of the vagaries of the municipal budget calendar because I'm sure that there's detail there that we're kind of missing as people who don't live there and what have you. But yeah, it does

strike me that regardless of the sort of logistical realities that given the difficulties that the community has faced and is likely to continue to face as they repair from the storm and to your point, unfortunately, like future storms, which are sure to happen, that a more conciliatory tone seems like it's called for. It does make me feel like we're missing something because it just seems, unless to your point, they're just really keen to actually get out of there and that's the real takeaway, it seems like a strategic error too. You're not likely to get much of anything if this is the tone you take, but maybe there are pieces of it we're missing or maybe they're, you know, having sat with it.

They're like, no, we just want out of here. I don't know. I mean, I feel like even suggesting that is impugning them because they've been so insistent, but you know, it happens a lot that teams want out. It is an odd bit of business to get so hot under the collar and not have a, a ready explanation as to why, you know? Yeah. You got to at least pay lip service to the idea that we're not the top priority here. The, the eye wash that I was condemning at the start of the episode, do a little of that in this situation, because,

because it really isn't actually all about you. It's about the whole municipality and the many millions of people who live in that area. So you can't make it all about you. You have to take the Shohei Otani tone, even if you don't actually feel that way. You just, you got to do it. So I don't know if they think they'll come out ahead here, whether it's with a different deal that will be more lucrative or in a better position, location for them, or whether they just have their eyes on some outside site again. And we'll start hearing that refrain. But I mean, do you really want to

play in the Yankees spring training minor league park for the next few years. I would not be my choice if it were me. I wonder what the league thinks of that. Yeah, I wonder too. Sort of posture. And you know, it could be that, I don't know, maybe it's just like this one guy is bad at this part of it, but that's an important, if you're the front-facing part of the organization, you kind of need to be good at that stuff. Mm-hmm.

Yeah, Rob Manfred, not known for being the most tactful speaker, but on Wednesday I thought he did strike the right tone. He said, given the devastation in that area, it's kind of only fair to give the local governments in the Tampa Bay region an opportunity to sort of figure out where they are, what they have available in terms of resources, what's doable. We're committed to the fans in Tampa Bay. Given all that's happened in that market, we're focused on our franchise in Tampa Bay right now."

And then said, it's one thing to make an interim arrangement for 2025. When you get into another year, there's obviously going to be another interim arrangement unless they get the chop fixed. And I think that second year of an interim arrangement, you need a plan as to how you're going to get into a permanent facility.

So he's like, hey, we get it, take your time. And then the Ray is just Leroy Jenkins in there. So unless this is some sort of good cop, bad cop routine, maybe he hasn't been thrilled either. I also have an answer on the envelope envelope issue that we ran into. Yeah. Mid pod yesterday.

I, I noted and remarked that I tend to say envelope when I'm talking about envelopes, putting a stamp on an envelope, mailing an envelope, an actual physical envelope, but that I felt moved to say push the envelope, that in that specific situation I seem to say envelope. And I wondered why that was, and it seemed like you felt the same way. And we said, surely some linguist in the audience, some listener linguist will write in and tell us why this is so. And I in fact specifically name checked one, Ben Zimmer, the great word nerd and former long time Wall Street Journal language columnist. He in fact heard the call, heard the linguist signal and wrote in early this morning.

So it didn't take long at all. I didn't even have to message him, he heard. And he sent me this message, subject line, envelope slash envelope. He says, I picked up on the linguistic bat signal you sent out about envelope versus envelope. It's very common for people to have both of these pronunciations and to use them at different

times and in different contexts. Linguists talk about such cases as free variation, and the two pronunciations are sometimes called phonological doublets. Another example would be economics, economics economics. It's difficult to say why we favor one pronunciation over another in certain circumstances, but there might be some general patterns or tendencies. You noted that push the envelope sounds good to you, but you might say you put a stamp on an envelope. It's possible that there's some variation based on whether

the word is preceded by a vowel or a consonant. Sure. So you might prefer envelope after the and envelope after an, but I suspect there are other factors at play here because I had speculated that it had something to do with mouth and tongue position when you're saying pushing the envelope. Maybe it's just like your tongue is in a more convenient place to make the on sound as opposed to the end sound. But Ben is saying there might be other factors at play. I checked Youglish. This is a website that Ben has introduced me to

in the past, which I found very handy. The website that lets you search for YouTube clips to hear how words and phrases are pronounced. This actually came up in our discussion of summer sausage or summer sausage, depending on where you place the emphasis, the site. You push, I don't know how it works, but you can put in a phrase if it's a fairly common phrase and it will just give you a long list of clips timed perfectly to when someone in a YouTube video

said that thing. So you can hear how it's pronounced by many different people in many public videos. I don't know if they've like scoured every video and automatically transcribed it or machine learned it or something. I'm not sure exactly how that works, but it's mystical and I take it for granted now and it's a handy tool when I'm trying to check my pronunciation of things. But Ben says, I compared American pronunciations of the phrases push the envelope slash envelope and back of the envelope slash envelope.

Since both use the, there's no difference in terms of the preceding sound. Of the first 30 examples of the push phrase, 18 or 60 percent matched your envelope pronunciation. But for the back phrase, back of the envelope envelope, envelope was favored with 20 of the first 30 examples or 67 percent using that pronunciation. So what's happening here, and this is in accord with what we were saying that we're more likely to say envelope with That specific phrase push summer. Yeah. Well summer Reopen that debate God now, I don't know what I really say. I continue Ben says my conjecture is that the envelope

Pronunciation is favored when we're talking about a physical object, or at least suggesting it. Back of the envelope calculations evoke the image of scribbling on actual paper. Which is, uh, that's true, right? I guess. Sure. Envelope, on the other hand, may feel more appropriate for an abstract or metaphorical usage. In fact, pushing the envelope has nothing to do with what we stuff letters into. It came out of the world of aeronautics,

where envelope, envelope refers to the limits of performance. Tom Wolfe popularized the expression in the right stuff, as been noted in the Atlantic after Wolfe died. The envelope pronunciation more closely mimics the French word that was borrowed into English, and we sometimes favor French-sounding pronunciations when we want to sound a little fancier.

Envelope! Envelope! So it would make sense if envelope attached itself to an abstract idiom, while envelope felt suitable to the mundane act of sending and receiving physical mail in so far as we still do that. I guess that's fairly convincing to me. I don't know if it's a- That explanation or my French accent. Definitely the former.

Oh man, no. That's the sniff test more or less for me. I think that could be true. Yeah. I'm persuaded mostly, I guess. Yeah. Okay. I buy it. Yeah.

I was interested in hearing from Ben. Just I love linguistics. I should have been a linguist, I think. I took an intro to linguistics course in college and I loved it and I thought it was fascinating and then I didn't do anymore. I don't know I think maybe I fulfilled some requirement with that and didn't have to do anymore but I really liked that class. It's like my intro to astronomy was a great class that deepened my interest in being a space nerd and then intro to linguistics. I guess, you know, I do linguistics adjacent work,

I suppose, language related, but yeah, maybe I could have been a Ben Zimmer instead of a Ben Lindbergh. Well, maybe you can go back to school when you have retired and go do that, you know? You could take a class, go take a class, another class. Yeah, it's not too late. Not too late, never too late to learn new stuff. Maybe other Ben gives linguistics lessons.

Maybe he can tutor me. I can't believe there's so many Bens. I know there really are just a lot of Bens. I don't even know. I know who other Ben is, but after that, we'd have to decide who's next in the Ben hierarchy. There are a lot of just Bens in the effectively wild orbit.

So. I don't know that it has to be a hierarchy, you know, like you're all, you're all very, you're all great bends. Yeah. Good bends. The lot of you. Yeah. I'm first among bends, but it's first among equals on this pod.

But after that, yeah. Okay. Also just wanted to answer an email from a listener named Tom who followed up on our discussion about the state of baseball broadcasting and sports broadcasting and the cable bubble and Diamond Sports and whether we're heading for some kind of cliff here. And he said, when you were discussing the Diamond Sports Group resolution, you mentioned that teams that own their own networks are in much better shape than others. Could you explain why that is?

Aren't those networks under the same cord cutting pressure as the teams broadcast by Diamond? Is it just that it's the Yankees and Dodgers so they have larger fan bases who are willing to pay? Or is there some other detail that makes owning the network more profitable regardless of the team? Everyone always says that those teams aren't at as much risk as others, but I've never understood why.

And when he said that, it did make me rethink things because I've always sort of reflexively said, oh yeah, you own your own RSN, you're in better shape, you're more insulated somehow. But then I thought, yeah, but aren't the RSNs also dealing with the same issue of cord cutting and potentially losing viewers? LS. And we've had a recent example of just that thing, right? The part of the situation that the Mariners find themselves in is that they, well, now they own the whole thing, but they owned a large share of Root Sports. And then Root Sports and then Root Sports got taken out of the basic cable package in the region and all of a sudden there was this big pressure and because they're the Mariners and they're not the Dodgers and because the other teams that are part of that RSN were

not at the time either as popular as I think they're likely to be in the case of the Kraken or playing particularly well in the case of the Trailblazers. It was like, oh boy, why would people pay twenty dollars a month Ben, twenty whole American dollars a month to watch the Mariners? Would you do that? I don't know a lot of people would do that. Yeah, I saw Rootsports' tweet about their upcoming broadcast schedule and it was bleak. It was like Mariners reruns. Just that's it kind of. It's not off season Mariners reruns of a season that was disappointing. Yeah. And they have the, like I said, they have the rights to the Kraken and also to

the Trailblazers and maybe to a couple of other teams. I don't remember. They might have the soccer. they might have soccer. I think they have soccer. I'm not a soccer person, so I am less familiar with that. But none of them are like the Dodgers, you know? Yeah, yeah. Right. So yes, you're not immune to these underlying conditions if you have your own RSN or you

have some stake in your own RSN or you have some stake in your own RSN. So I was thinking about this and I sent the question to Joshian because he had just written a treatise for the excellent Joshian newsletter about the end of the RSN era as he dubbed it and wanted to get his thoughts and his thoughts were similar to mine and also really Tom I think was barking up the right tree with that is it just that it's the Yankees and the Dodgers so they have a lot of fans. Joe wrote back, it's mostly because of market size and by the way Tom was a Joshian newsletter

subscriber so you know we got an answer from Effectively Wild and from the Joshian baseball newsletter just you know double barreled response to Tom here. It's mostly because of market size, Joe wrote. New York, LA, Chicago, Toronto, Boston. Masson is the exception, but a weird one. The Orioles own most of it and Baltimore is a small market, but they broadcast in DC, a large market. This new White Sox venture will be a test of the theory,

as it's the second team in a large market, but also at an adieu of interest and sharing the app with a couple of bad teams. The teams that started their own networks did so in large part because they wanted to cut out the middleman in a profitable business. Even with cord cutting, the audience for these teams is large enough to make them remain profitable.

And I think they all own their streaming rights as well, so they're positioned for the transition to come. And in Joe's initial newsletter, he had a stat about this, I had not realized that it was quite so clear cut, but of the eight teams that had the lowest market score defined in the CBA, seven had or have deals with Diamond. Whereas of the 12 teams with stable TV situations, 11 were among the top 12 market scores. And the only one of the bottom 18 teams by market score untouched by this is the Orioles, as Joe said, who owns 77% of Masson while ranking 23rd by market score. So that's what we were getting at with the idea that this could exacerbate the gap between the haves and the have-nots because I guess not by coincidence,

the haves have their own networks because maybe they had the greatest incentive to have their own networks. They had the most potential paying customers and still do even in this era where you might actually need to go direct to consumer, they just have more potential consumers. And so, yeah, they're kind of inoculated against it to some extent. They might still suffer, but suffer less. And also, I guess there's just less uncertainty. You're not waiting to hear what happens in some bankruptcy proceeding

because you own the thing or you own part of it, at least. So you kind of control your own destiny to invoke an old statement that we interrogated in the past. I guess you're still at the whims of, subject to the whims of the markets in this case, but you at least, you know the financials, you know someone's not going to just renege on you at the last second because you'd be reneging on yourself essentially. So yeah, that's what it is, I guess, more so than the structure of owning your own RSN. It's just happening to be in a big market, which has kind of correlated with owning your own RSN. Yeah. I think that that is a good, more nuanced explanation of the whole situation.

Yeah. Cause if just owning an RSN were just the meal ticket, if that could get you out of trouble, then everyone would just start their own RSN at this point, I guess, and there was some buzz about the Rangers potentially starting their own RSN a little while back. So maybe there's some interest in that, but. And that's a big market. Yeah.

I mean, Dallas Fort Worth is a huge market. Yeah. But yeah, it's not just a panacea, start your own RSN and then you're, you're good to go. It's, uh, just, it's the teams that did that. You know, it's the Yankees, it's the Mets, it's these big, big teams with a lot of potential paying customers. And market size is very often a really good proxy, but it's the Yankees, it's the Mets, it's big teams with a lot of potential paying customers.

And market size is very often a really good proxy, but it's not a perfect one because like for instance, the Phoenix metro area, very large market, but also, you know, you have to deal with the sports situation on the ground. And when you're a place that say has a lot of transplants, are those people adopting the local team as theirs or are they going to keep rooting for whatever team they brought to town with them? You know, you got to deal with that too. Okay. And also, I meant to say this at the top, but I will say it now instead, the Effectively Wild Secrets Santa, the annual tradition, is open once again.

This is kind of an unofficial official Effectively Wild activity. It's not something we organize, but I approve of it taking place. It's done by listener Zach Wintkos, who has been ushering this thing through for years and years. He's been the Secret Santa steward and he has opened up the signups once again. There's a website, a form where you can put in your information and he will match you up with someone and he's posted about it in the Facebook group but anyone can access it. I will link to it on the show page so check that out and I think the signup deadline will probably be December 10th.

That's what it was last year. It's currently a little later than that, but we'll probably bump it up just to give people more time to get gifts out before Christmas or whatever holiday you're celebrating at this time of year. And it's been fun. It's usually, you know, hundreds of people sign up. I always sign up.

I've gotten and hopefully given some good gifts over the years. This is the seventh annual Effectively Wild Secret Santa. So it's been going for quite a while and lots of good holiday cheer is always shared. And you know, I guess the disclaimer is that we can't really enforce this effectively or even effective wildly. So every now and then there are instances of a Grinch who signs up for Secret Santa and presumably receives a gift, but does not give one. And does not send one.

Yeah, and that stinks. That really, that sucks. Don't do that. Yeah, just don't sign up unless you are. And occasionally it's like something gets stuck in a spam filter and someone doesn't see it. Check your spam. Yeah.

If you sign up and don't get a confirmation or don't get a match on mid-December when the matches go out, then check your spam filter because it could be stuck in there. But there are people who flake and people who don't follow through and that's disappointing because if you give a gift, then you expect to receive one. Of course, giving a gift is its own reward. And we encourage people to post about the gifts they got in our various Effectively Wild social channels and they often do.

And that's fun for everyone to admire the gifts. And the recommended amount to spend is 25 bucks, not more than that. So it's just small gifts, but baseball themed gifts. And you can say what team you're a fan of and your shirt size or cap size or whatever, if you want to encourage certain types of gifts. But it's a secret because that's how secret Santa works.

And it's a secret because that's how secret Santa works. And it's fun. So sign up and, you know, I guess steal yourself for the possibility that you might get bad luck of the draw and you get the Grinch who doesn't send you a gift, but, you know, please do if you sign up for this follow through on that. And most people do and it's on balance, I think, a pretty rewarding activity that I'm glad Zach is doing again. So remember to sign up and I'll have some reminders at the end of the episodes between now and then. Nice.

And next week we will reconvene for some rapid fire recording. We're going to try to cram our recording pre-Thanksgiving and give you a lot to listen to as you travel for the holiday. And as mentioned, we'll have a little group activity next time. We'll recap our predictions and draft picks. Bye. All right. Well, after we recorded lots of non-tender news, sadly relevant to this episode, Brent Honeywell, non-tendered by the Dodgers, also another Hobie, Hobie Milner, of the Brewers, non-tendered. There is even a trade between the Reds and the Royals.

Brady Singer, going to Cincinnati, Jonathan India, going to Kansas City, along with Joey Weimer. How dare these two teams make a trade after we finished recording. Kind of a fun one. Pitcher for a hitter, roughly the same age, each player filling a need for the team that acquired him. Think I'd probably prefer the Reds end

of that deal personally. Also meant to mention when we were talking about the direct-to-consumer model for baseball broadcasting, we've talked a lot about the downsides of the shift away from the RSN model. The upside is that in theory, it might make teams want to try more if they can't count on getting quite as much money just for existing. If they have to make more of a case for themselves, sell fans on watching them and giving them money, then in theory, they might want to put a more compelling product on the field. Then again, they might have fewer resources with which to do that and more of an uphill climb to compete with the big dogs. But that would be the positive spin to put on this situation.

I'll leave you with a quick stat blast, both because we got a goodaplass question and because we got a brand new cover of the Staplass theme song by listener Andrew Loudon who is inspired both by the Staplass song and by the Sloan song The Good and Everyone. As I've said to him this is some Bryce Harper level pandering on his part to my tastes and interests combining the Staplass song and my favorite band. Take it away Andrew. Would you please welcome to the stage, Stanlabs! They'll take a data set sorted by something like ERA-ROPS plus And then they'll tease out some interesting tidbit, discuss it at length And analyze it for us in amazing ways Okay, here's the question, it comes from Sean.

I know you've talked on past episodes about players who were called up to MLB rosters but never appeared in a game. Yes, the so-called phantom ball players. With the Rays and A's both planning to play in minor league parks next season, I became curious about the possibility of a similarly sad asterisk on an MLB career. It's possible someone could get called up by the Rays or A's, only play home games, and then get sent back down never to return. So even though he was technically a major leaguer, he never actually got to play in

an MLB park. This also reminds me of the players who appeared solely during the 2020 season and thus played in a big league park, in many cases, but didn't get to play in front of fans. I think there were 29 of those 2020 only guys, at least as of mid-2023. Not sure whether I'd rather play in a minor league park with fans in it or a big league park that's empty. I think probably the former. So Sean continues, I went through all the cases I know of games in non-MLB stadiums, the Expos in 2003-04, the Blue Jays in 2020-21, the special games in Williamsport and Omaha, etc. I even included international games

and things like the Fort Bragg and Field of Dreams games, since those weren't technically MLB parks. As far as I can tell, it's happened three times, all with one game MLB careers. First, Bob Sprout was a pitcher who appeared in one home game for the Angels in 1961, their first year of existence when they played their home games in a minor league park in LA

named Wrigley Field. Number two, Nick Allgier pitched one game for the Blue Jays in Buffalo in 2021, although he was still in AAA with the Phillies organization last year, so he may be able to play himself off the list. And number three, Adam Klopfenstein made his MLB debut with the Cardinals in the Rickwood Field game last year

and then was sent back down. Obviously he has a chance to get himself off this list in the future as well. I'm curious if any of your StapLast experts can find any other instances of this I might have missed. Well, I asked frequent statblast correspondent Ryan Nelson, find him on Twitter at rsnelson23, and he used RetroSheet to come up with a list of qualifying parks. And it's hard to define what counts. As an MLB park, how long do you have to have played there for it to clear that bar and not just be a minor league park or a temporary park.

Ultimately, he limited the scope of his inquiry to the post-World War II era, so any stadium that was out of use prior to 1945 didn't count. That was a very different brand of baseball and also frequent ballpark moves back then. So he had a tier list. Tier 1 is a genuine non-MLB stadium that was used for half a season or less. Tier 2 is a stadium that was not originally designed with an MLB team in mind, but hosted a team for one to three seasons. This was often an expansion or relocation team prior to an MLB-built facility being in place.

We drew the line at three seasons because that's how long the A's are supposedly going to play in Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. And I guess how long the Rays would be stuck in Steinbrenner Field prior to a park opening hypothetically in 2028, if the trap doesn't get fixed in the interim. So that cuts off, for instance, the LA Coliseum that the Dodgers played in before Dodger Stadium.

They were there for four seasons, or the A's in Municipal Stadium in Kansas City, also four seasons, I think. That wasn't just a minor league park, it was also where in Kansas City, also four seasons I think. That wasn't just a minor league park, it was also where the Kansas City Monarchs played. So this leaves us with a list of 23 ballparks. Prior to this season, I suppose this would not count Rickwood Field, where of course the Birmingham Black Barons played, and MLP would now classify those as major league games. But prior to this year, 22 qualifying parks, 15 tier one, seven tier two. So the tier one parks, BB&T ballpark at Bowman Field,

Estadio Hiram Beethorn, Field of Dreams, Fort Bragg Field, TD Ameritrade Park, Tokyo Dome, obviously that's a major league park too, just not an MLB park, Estadio Monterey, London Stadium, Sydney Cricket Ground, Aloha Stadium, Cashman Field, the ballpark at Disney's Wide World of Sports, Roosevelt Stadium, Aloha Stadium, Cashman Field, the ballpark at Disney's Wide World of Sports, Roosevelt Stadium, TD Ballpark, and Salem Field.

And then Tier 2 is Griffith Stadium, Six Stadium, Wrigley Field, not the one in Chicago, Mile High Stadium, Seals Stadium, Robert F. Kennedy Stadium, and Colt Stadium. And Ryan found nine players whose MLB careers consisted solely of games at one of these parks. The only tier one only player was the aforementioned Nick Allgaier, who played one game for the 2021 Blue Jays in Buffalo. And then there were eight tier two guys, all of whom played in the 1950s or 60s. Glenn Vaughn played nine games in his age 19 season in 1963 for the Houston Colt 45s at Colt Stadium,

and Billy Williams, not the Hall of Famer, played 4 games in 6 stadiums in Seattle for the 1969 Pilots. The remaining players were all one game guys, John Fitzgerald and Nick Testa for the 1958 Giants at SEAL Stadium in San Francisco. I think I may have mentioned Nick Testa on the podcast previously. He had almost as brief a big league career as you can have, played one inning for the 58 Giants, didn't bat, got one chance on defense, and made an error. I actually met him because before he passed away several years ago, and also before my grandmother did, he lived at the same assisted living facility as she did. He wasn't really

communicative at the time, or you know I would have had him on the show. After his playing career, he became a bullpen catcher and batting practice pitcher for the Yankees, among other teams. Continuing on, the aforementioned Bob Sprout for the Angels at Wrigley Field in 1961, John Pechorek and Jay Dahl at Colt Stadium in Houston, 1963, and finally Dick Bates, also a 1969 Seattle pilot at Six Stadium. So that's it according to these definitions as far as Ryan could tell. We'll see if anyone gets added to this exclusive club in the next few years. It's like Crash Davis when he's telling his Durham Bulls

teammates that how when you're in the show the ballparks are like cathedrals. Not quite in all of these cases. Thanks to Sean for the question, thanks to Ryan for the research, and thanks to Franklin W. Dixon, not the pen name of the authors of the Hardy Boys, but the Reddit user with that handle, who left a comment on a post on the baseball subreddit, which posed the question if baseballs were sentient, would getting hit make them feel pain, or that they fulfilled their purpose? Of course, as people pointed out, we have considered this question previously, episode 1587, and Franklin W. Dixon posted, off-season posts always have big, Simpsons did it first energy, but it was effectively wild instead of The Simpsons. I find that flattering. And hey, The Simpsons, they're not even up to

800 episodes. We've got almost three times as many. Stop slacking, Simpsons. And you can help us keep making more episodes and entertaining additional odd hypotheticals by supporting the podcast on Patreon, which you can do by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild. If you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site, as have the following five listeners who have signed up to pledge some monthier yearly amount to help keep the podcast going, help us stay ad free and get themselves access to some perks.

Martin Gannon, Mathias Mando, Jules Redding, Emmet Laurie, and Matt Graber, which, having primed myself to be thinking about The Simpsons, I almost read as Matt Graining the first time I looked at it. Thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include access to the Effectively Wild Discord group for patrons only, monthly bonus episodes, playoff live streams, prioritized email answers, personalized messages, autographed books answers, personalized messages, autographed books, potential podcast appearances, discounts on merch and ad-free FanGraphs memberships and more, check out all the offerings at patreon.com slash effectively wild. If you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via

email. Send your questions and comments and theme songs to podcast at fangraphs.com. You can rate, review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on iTunes and Spotify and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash group slash Effectively Wild. You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at r slash Effectively Wild, and you can check the show page at FanGraphs or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today and also for that Secret Santa sign up. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We hope you have a wonderful weekend, and we will be back to talk to you next week. Effectively wild It's war with a smile Effectively wild It's the good stuff

It's baseball nerd stuff We hope you'll stick around for a while Effectively wild, effectively wild Effectively wild, effectively wild