Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2286: Season Preview Series: Mariners and Reds

Episode Date: February 21, 2025

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the start of spring training games, the charms of Tigers reliever John Brebbia, whether MLB’s uniform pants were always semi-transparent, and Shohei Ohtani���s parallel parking skills. Then they preview the 2025 Seattle Mariners (27:37) with Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, and the 2025 Cincinnati Reds (1:12:53) with […]

Hello and welcome to episode 2286 of Effectively Wild, a FanGraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Rowley of FanGraphs and I am joined by Ben Lindberg of the ringer Ben. Happy baseball. Happy, happy major league baseball? Happy spring training baseball. Happy affiliated baseball. Happy, happy baseball, Ben. Yeah, it's back.

It's back. After a fashion. Yeah, we're back-ish, baby. Yeah. Would you call spring training major league baseball? There are obviously major league players playing, but there are also non-major league players playing. I mean, I wouldn't.

I wouldn't call it major league baseball. I would call it spring training baseball. The distinction I am trying to draw is that, okay, so here's the thing about style, not like, ooh, look how good I look, but like, you know, like written style. So my opinion and I enjoined in this opinion by no less luminary than Sabre is that one should not use MLB as a abbreviation catch all for Major League Baseball as in baseball played in the major leagues. It is a business entity. It should only be used to describe the league.

Like if you are not thinking about the building where Rob Manfred goes to work every day, you shouldn't say Major League Baseball. But Ben, I do allow. I do allow. Fairgrounds.com, an exception to this, which is that I think when you are writing about what we would know as the majors, and you are also in that same article describing say the KBO or NPP or other leagues. It is for clarity useful to use MLB because foreign leagues also have distinctions that

they draw between what we would understand to be the majors and their version of the minors. And so in those instances, I would say MLB is fine. But here, I'm trying to draw a distinction between say, the baseball that the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs are playing right now and Winter League. So, that was a long little digression that we just took. Yeah, I figured I'd head off the pedants at the pass by being one myself performing pedantry on the podcast. But I agree. I have no problem with saying an MLB game, speaking of a single game that is played in

Major League Baseball between MLB teams, I would certainly say that. But I do think that the Major League versus MLB distinction is a vital one that we must preserve when appropriate. Yeah. It is nice to have the MLB players we know and watch and look forward to watching during the long winter. Yeah, they're playing. They're playing, yeah, happy spring training games. Happy presumption of Cactus League play.

Yes, Cactus League, Grapefruit League. These leagues have names too, so we can resort to those. It is, look, like if one were going to be a real pill, one would know that they grow grapefruits in Arizona, and there'd be grapefruits, you know? There's citrus, it's everywhere, but I understand that the cactus is probably more notable. And anyway, hope that your head feels okay, Bobby Miller,

that was very scary earlier. Yeah, really didn't take long to remember that guys, guys can get hurt doing this too. But yeah, it is, there are certain milestones of spring training. It's like just the phrase pitchers and catchers report, like that brings a little lift. And then you see the first workouts and everything.

And then you see the first game and that, and then you see the first game, and that's quite meaningful too. That's maybe the best of all, but then it does wear off at a certain point, the distinction between Grapefruit and Cactus and actual MLB action. It's a notable one. And so at a certain point,

you start pining for actual opening day, and you realize, oh, you have a whole month of these exhibition games before we get to that point. And then maybe unless you're a real diehard or you just need something on in the background, you probably are a little less eager to get those games on. But the first day that your team has a spring training game, if it's available for you to watch,

that's just a wonderful Rite of Spring. Gorgeous, it's a gorgeous rate of spring. It's gorgeous, it's a beautiful day here in the valley. Weather's still nice. I feel a little lift, you know? I'm not gonna lie. I feel a little lift, Ben, it's nice. Yeah, it's snowing here, which is not very spring-like,

but that gives me a lift too. Another thing that we get at this time of year is players actually being present and being on camera and saying lots of stuff and there are two videos that I want to send your way in case you haven't seen them. I have a new player who is my favorite player and the second video will be about Shohei Otani but this first video in my affections I think that John Brebbia has a very temporarily displaced Shohei because he has won me over. He has won my heart. The Tigers were doing this thing on social media, on Twitter at least, where whoever the Tigers social media team is, they were

handing over the phone to the players and just like having them tweet whatever came to mind essentially seems dangerous. But yeah, seems to have gone well for the most part. Yeah, so at Tigers tweeted on February 19th, if your favorite subject is English, here is my favorite English language. Fun fact, longest grammatically correct sentence in the English language using the same word,

buffalo, buffalo, buffalo, buffalo, buffalo, buffalo, buffalo, buffalo. And this is different meanings of the word buffalo. Some of the buffaloes are capitalized and it refers to the place. And so there is a Wikipedia page for buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo. And it says it's a grammatically correct sentence in English that is often presented as an example of how homonyms and homophones can be used to create complicated

linguistic constructs through lexical ambiguity. Has been discussed in literature in various forms since 1967. So it uses the attributive noun acting as an adjective to refer to a specific place named Buffalo, such as the city of Buffalo, New York, as the verb to Buffalo, meaning to bully, harass, or intimidate, or to baffle, and as a noun to refer to the animal. And the plural of the animal also Buffalo. So yeah, quite clever. And this was just tweeted without any explanation. And then what they were doing was quote tweeting the initial tweet with a video of the player

then sending that tweet to explain why did at tigers just tweet this. And so we get this delightful video which I will play a clip of, of John Brebria being asked to tweet. Can you send a tweet from the Tigers account? I mean I can. Would you like me to? I would love you to. We would love that. What was your favorite subject in school? Just go for it. What was your favorite subject? Oh mine?

Oh uh English. English? That's perfect. One of my favorite fun facts. Apple products are ridiculous. Have you ever tried an Android? They're incredible. How long can these things be? Where are the commas?

Thank you. I'm telling you, this keyboard, this is not OK. This is a draft. Which direction do I go? In the indoors. OK. What's direction do I go? I love this man. I love this man. Oh my gosh. I do okay I'm gonna say I'm gonna say this one time and then I'm gonna back away from it until we talk about it at length At a later date, which we almost certainly will. These pants are the same. They're the same. The pants are the same I'm sorry. These pants are the same. The pants are the same. I'm sorry. These pants are the same.

Can see through your pants. Anyway. Yeah, no. Look, it's true that the pants... No. ...the transparency, the opacity. I've come around to thinking that it was always this way. No, they wore it this year. They've convinced me. No.

This is a Berenstain bears situation. Berenstain bears? This is a Shazam situation. Wait, what is the Berenstain bears? Berenstain? Yeah, that's how it's spelled, Berenstain. Yeah, but it's not how it's said. It's Berenstain bears.

No, it's not. Right, it's said that way, but everyone's always shocked to discover that it was Berenstain all along. There's a term for this. What's the... I'll think of the term for this. People are listening to this and shouting at their phones. I have regret. I shouldn't have brought it up because I already took us down one cold sack and now we need a, we need a steer out. That's what it is. Of course. So, so there's a Mandela effect here where are we really sure that they were ever opaque?

And no, no, but the thing is now when MLB tried to prove to us all that there was nothing wrong with the uniforms last year and they were sending around to various reporters, including me, pictures of people at photo days. They sure shopped some photos, didn't they? A lot of people said, no, not everybody. Some people just tweeted that out as it was. But look, those photos evidently weren't doctored.

There were people at previous photo days where the lighting, the flash, such as it is, you could see through the pants. Now we know the pants were different in the sense that they weren't tailored and now players have the option to tailor them again. And we know that the tops, the jerseys are returned to their previous, you know, bigger letters and everything.

Yeah, big letters. Hopefully higher quality, the right colors, et cetera. Oh, yeah. But I have And hopefully higher quality, the right colors, et cetera. But I have kind of come around to the idea that maybe they were more transparent than we let on, than we admitted or realized. And our attention was only drawn to that by all of the other uniform malfunctions that happened.

No? Okay, I'm gonna say one more thing. One more thing. And then we're gonna move off of it because I feel like I'm giving Brebia being one of the more charming human beings. Yes, I wanna talk more about Brebia. But I just wanna say, this is gonna sound like

I'm targeting a particular fan base and I'm not. I'm acknowledging you in all your complex glory. I follow too many horny Phillies fans on various social media platforms for you to convince me that this was what this stuff looked like all along. They would have been talking about rigs. They would have been talking about all kinds of stuff, Ben. I would have been hearing about so many Phillies and their various bits if this had been how it was. Okay, so that's just that's what I'm saying about that. And I wanna point out, I'm not offering this as a criticism. Is it because I'm terrified of some of you?

Yes, yes it is that, but it's not just that. Anyway, Brevia. What a delight. What a lovely, delightful guy. And we've already, we have talked about his facial hair already, but boy a what a charming guy and I I'm a I'm an iPhone user I'm not weird about it you know I'm not one of these people that's like I'm a droid user and I am weird about it you are weird about like John Brevia

I know this spoke to you on that level but I just have to to say, like I find him so charming that like, cause he's right. It is like phones are ridiculous, you know, and are there really no commas on the keyboard? Well, on the default, at least do you have to go to a second screen for the comma? You just click a little button. It's right there. All right. It's right next to the space. Okay. On mine, you don't have to click any button, it's right there. If you double space, it does a period. It's like, you know, they're having a civilization over there a little bit. Anyway, I'm not defending it.

I think it's fine. I don't find it confusing. But like, if you don't like it, then that's okay. I can't be bothered about that. I'm just saying the Brebia, so charming, how charming. So yes. What was the creature attached to the social media manager's phone? The Tiger social media person has grimace on their phone, basically.

It was like she killed grimace and put it on her phone. Yeah. Yeah. Wow. It's very hairy. It's fluffy. It's fluffy, yes. I bet it feels nice when you're holding your phone, you know, you're not dealing with any sharp edges. Murder to put in your back pocket though, that would be very challenging.

I saw someone in the replies was like, how do you put that thing in your pocket? And then someone was like, women don't have pockets. So, right, like, or a purse would be my next question. I put my phone in my, like if I'm wearing jeans, I put my phone in my pocket sometimes when I'm wearing jeans, but not all the time. It's a fun looking phone. But yeah, I like just the deadpan delivery here, the way that he's just walking. He's just walking maybe from throwing and on his way to the clubhouse or something

and he's accosted and asked to tweet something. And he strikes me as someone who's very offline. That's what I'm getting here. He does not have a social media presence himself as far as I can tell. And so he seems just exasperated by all of this, just by tweets. He's like, how many characters do I have here?

I love that he just whipped out this Buffalo thing, just, I mean, he's not even an English major now. I was an English major, so I responded to that too. He is, apparently, he attended Elon University. Not that Elon, but he majored in political science, which that's more of a Meg thing. Yeah, my guy. And yet he had this Buffalo fun fact and just the the deep sigh at the Apple product was just I Identified with that on such a deep level. Oh, yeah, cuz

I I'm kind of an Apple hater when it comes to all Apple products except for Apple TV Plus of which I am the number One fan in the world and number one consumer of their content. But yeah, perhaps the number one consumer of anything on that platform. Yes, in all other respects, not in the Apple ecosystem. And so the number of times that I have been shamed for using non Apple products, I'm a live and let live text and let text kind of guy.

But I end up on these group chats with a bunch of iPhone users and they mock the color of the bubbles that my texts come in. Apple compressed the photos they sent so they were super pixelated because it's their way or the highway. I've been on the other end of this. I've gotten grief. I've been radicalized. So yeah, I just, I just want to have Brebbie on the podcast to just like talk about our

droids or something. Just a kindred spirit here. Can we talk about his beard? We could talk about his beard. Yeah, absolutely. But I just... What a charming guy. Not an amazing pitcher. I mean, you know, not the... Don't say that when we have him on the podcast. No, I won't say that then, but look, he's been in the big leagues for several years here.

Yeah, he's a big leaguer. He's just, you know, he's like just a bullpen guy, you know? He's just a guy who's going to be in the bullpen for you and he's going to pitch some bullpen innings and I just, I need to know more about him. I need to understand him on a deeper and more personal level now because I just, I like this guy. So, you know, even if he was replacement level last season, he is far above replacement level in my heart and my mind.

The other guy who is far above replacement level in both categories is Shohei Otani. And Shohei Otani, he made TMZ this week. Because of his feet? It was not because of his feet. He made TMZ because of his parallel parking. Now, this is something where again, I have sent you the link and I'm going to need your input on this one because I have never parallel parked in my life. And so I can't really critique his methods here, his technique. Being a celebrity is so, I'm going to do a big swear. So weird.

Like, oh, it is right. So I will say an ad is loading, so I have not yet seen the parallel parking. My God, this ad, geez TMZ. It doesn't seem like that bad a job of parallel parking, which is notoriously tough, but you can tell me. But it gives you some measure of his fandom that TMZ is putting up a post about Shohei Otani parallel parking. It's not like he ran into someone

or knocked into another car or something. It just took him a couple, you know, like he backed in and then he had to, honestly, I think his first, he could have just left it like that. The first, he wasn't sticking way out from the curb. He's a little, he's pretty far from the curb. Yeah. He's pretty far from the curb. I don't know that he would have been like cited for it

or gotten a ticket, but he's driving a Porsche, a Porsche, excuse me. I always feel pretentious saying Porsche, but that is how you say it. I guess. So he's driving, I believe this is a Porsche Taycan and I think he's, doesn't he have a deal? He's like sponsored. He's always given people Porsches.

He's given people Porsches all the time. They're probably given him Porsches. So maybe he didn't want it to get dinged. And so he wanted to make sure he was hugging the curb here, but it's not the worst parallel parking job I've ever seen. It's not like car like moves up. It like jumps. Yeah.

I mean, it's, you know, what is it like 40 seconds or something? It takes him and then he hops out of the car and he looks a little sheepish maybe getting out, but, uh, you know, it's not the worst that I've ever seen. And the fact that this is. Newsworthy. This is notable. This is, you know, it's not the worst that I've ever seen. And the fact that this is newsworthy, this is notable, this is, you know, usually TMZ, it's like you're stalking someone down the street and you're peppering them with questions and they're answering or they're not answering

or there was something scandalous. This is just an innocent attempt to parallel park. Yeah, so, okay, so look, here's what I think about this. Oh, it's, I know what Buffalo Wild Wings this is. Okay, I'm sorry, I was So, okay. So look, here's what I think about this. Oh, it's I know what Buffalo Wild Wings this is. Okay. I'm sorry. I was like, where are they? Buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo. No, what I was going to say is so like, it's not a great parallel parking job. I cannot imagine this being remotely noteworthy. His problem was that he didn't take a sharp enough angle into the curb on his initial approach. And so then he had to, you know, do the little, I'll tell a story to humble myself in front

of our listeners. And this relates to your state. So you need to like get this sorted if you ever decide to become a driver. But when I was a teenager, like I took driver's ed, but I didn't get my license. It doesn't matter why. The reason why is that we had to pay for our own insurance if we were going to drive and I didn't really have the means to do that. And then I went to college on the East coast and then I lived in New York and I

was like, well, I don't need to drive. And like, you know, I should have done it. I should have just done it when I was 16, which is when people often do it, particularly when they don't live in New York, although your circumstance is not unusual for your municipality. But I didn't, you know, I just didn't. And then I was getting ready to go to grad school in Wisconsin and it helps to have a car there, you know, it really does. And so I was like, Oh, I guess I got to get my driver's license. So then I took my driving test in New York and I failed the first time on parallel parking, um, because I don't know if this is still

true, but on the driver's test at that time, you, you had to do, you didn't get multiple moves. You couldn't like adjust. You had to, you had to back in, you had to pull forward, you had to park, you had to be done. All right. So I failed the first time. Then my second test, they couldn't get me in for a long time for

whatever reason. I had to pass because two days later I was flying to... I ended up getting my car in Colorado because of where my family is and my uncle worked at... for both grand... it doesn't matter. Anyway, I had to pass. I had to pass because I was flying to Colorado, I was leasing a car, and then I was gonna drive that car home to Washington with my mom, was leasing a car, and then I was going to drive that car home to Washington with my mom, spend the summer in Seattle, and then drive out to Wisconsin. So stakes are high. Stakes are high, Ben. And the lady tried to put me in a spot that her car was too big. And I was terrified. And thankfully, she was not a person who had like, you know,

an inflated sense of self-importance, because I had a panicked look and she was not a person who had like, you know, an inflated sense of self-importance because I had a panicked look and she was like, I put you in a bad spot. Let's try a different place. And I was like, thank you so much. So anyway, parallel parking is hard. You should be able to adjust. It's fine. Everyone needs to do that.

He should have taken a tighter angle in. He was too far from the curb. But also all of that to say that I think that parallel parking is one of those things where like you become a very special particle and you behave differently under observation than you would have if you were just by yourself. The reason I would hazard to say that Otani parallel parked poorly on the first go and again, not egregiously and he fixed it. It's not like he left his car in the middle of the road. You know, He just like was like, oh, I'm too far. And he did the thing that everyone does when they're too far from the curb and he adjusted and he's still a little far from the curb, but it was fine.

It was- Yeah. And remember, he didn't learn to drive that long ago because he had people driving him around and by people, I mean, Ipe Mizuhara who is not driving him around anymore. So he had to learn to do it himself. So good for him. He's still refining his technique here. I'm surprised that he doesn't have like a parking assist feature here. I'm sure that that's available.

So either he didn't spring for that, or maybe he's just, he wants to do it himself because how will he ever learn? I don't trust parking assist. Well, yeah, I mean, I wouldn't trust myself to do it. So I would trust the assist over me. But yes, I think it's really just the fact that this was even considered vaguely newsworthy and was there for a chicken wing eating competition.

But I think it's because rarely do we see him fail at anything because he's always doing things well for the most part. Now, you know, maybe his security measures and his trust when it came to his bank accounts, that was perhaps a failure on some levels, but when he's on camera, he's usually excelling and being better at something than everyone. And even when his foot pick, you know, he shows feet, show feet, get it? Yeah. He gets great ratings on WikiFeet. Yeah, but so does everyone.

Yeah, I know. There's great inflation going on there. But here he is, it's humanizing, it's relatable. Oh, he's just one of us, you know? He's struggling with something that a lot of people routinely struggle with. Yeah, like, you know, totally understandable. My suggestion to you, Otani, is just turn the radio off next time. I don't know that it was on, but I have to turn the radio off at my parallel park. I can't have it. I'm like, oh no, sensory overload, can't parallel path this. Yeah. I just, it's so funny to see this described as a failure because failures with cars involve hitting something, right?

Having to adjust where you are in a parking spot is not a failure. It's just a thing you gotta do sometimes. Like neither his car nor any human person was injured or compromised in in the redo. It's not a failure like Fine, I think it's weird that car like does a little jump makes it sound like all four wheels are leaving the pavement Which is not true, but there's like a riser like does a little I don't cars would not be an area where I would Behave that differently from a spending perspective if I won the lottery tomorrow. And so it's just kind of lost on me and it's fine. If people are into cars, that's cool. Some of the old ones are really cool to look at. But I'm just like, oh, why?

Also, he's so tall. SUVs are a scourge, but you're in a sedan. Yeah. He doesn't really fit so well in a sports car At least he's driving electric. Okay, so yeah, that's nice little tidbit about John Brebbia Detroit News When he showed up at spring training it talks a little bit about how he struggled last season So on his first day as a tiger he was asked how things might be different full shift He said without batting an eye. I was trying to throw left-handed for the first week of the off season. We shut that down pretty quick.

It was coming out a little loopy. Is this the most charming man alive? I love this vid. If there's anything bad about John Brebbia, don't tell me. I don't wanna know because I'm so charmed. And then they asked like, is the stat line deceiving? You know, sometimes ERA doesn't tell

the full story. Not this time, Brebbia said, no, my stuff was bad for the most part. Just what a guy, what a charming clubhouse presence. So yeah, give me more Brebbia, please. Yeah. And here's the thing, the fact that he's decided to not participate in social media means that if there are bad things, we are less likely to know about them. And that's nice. Yes, speaks well of him. All right. We have two previews for you today. Here's another headline, calls him zany. Zany. Zany?

John Brabe. Yeah, I'm not really getting zany from his manner in this video. We're only just getting to know him. Yeah, no. Give it a minute. But yeah, he has a reputation as a bit of a character and a well-deserved one. Yeah, so we will be talking about the Cincinnati Reds later in the episode with C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic.

Before that, we will be talking about the Seattle Mariners and we must warn you that there will be a bit of background noise. See, the nice thing- You're so much more concerned about this than I am. I mean, look, I like to give people as good audio quality as we can. We try to maintain high standards here and it gets tough during the preview series. So there's going to be a little traffic.

There's going to be a door opening and closing. There will be a bit of babbling in the background, but I think it will be worthwhile because we got Ryan Devesh from the Seattle Times to talk to us about the Mariners. And this is just, it's an institutional hazard. It's the pitfall of the previews. The nice thing about spring training games starting is that spring training games, we get to see some baseball. The downside though is that that means that our preview get to see some baseball. The downside though, is that that means

that our preview guests are typically at the ballpark. And that means that, you know, we tried to record outside and the wifi was too weak. So we go inside and then there's some foot traffic. So be prepared. So what can we do? You know, we do our best, our preview guests do their best and we move on.

It'll be okay. You'll be like, oh, you know, there are some doors, but also there are some insightful words about the Mariners. So you'll survive. And one door closes and another one opens and then it closes again and then it opens. And I guess it was the same door the entire time. Anyway, let's close the door on this intro and open the door to our previews after a quick break. All right, well, we are now ready to preview Meg's and also Seattle's Mariners. And to do that, we have once again invited Ryan Divish, Mariners beat writer for the Seattle Times, who is at the ballpark, which means that we are

getting some very authentic ballpark audio here, just the sounds of spring training, which is a perennial feature. Let's call it a feature of the effectively wild season preview series. Hello, Ryan. Hey, I'm actually, it's odd, I'm sitting at the desk in the main entrance to the Mariners facility that they no longer open up to the public. So like before they would have like receptionist sitting here, so that's where I'm sitting. So you'll hear all kinds of random things, but yes, this is an odd place to be.

Probably shouldn't talk too loud. I think Jerry's office is right above me. Okay, well, speaking of that man, Jerry, how does he diagnose the ills of the Mariners over the past couple of years? Because after the excitement of 2022, they've now missed the playoffs and back-to-back seasons, and they've done it by a game

or two games. So close, but no cigar. Why do they think they fell just short and why do they think things will be any different this time? This year, I think misfortune and injuries to two of their key relievers, Matt Brash and Gregory Santos. Brash went down with a UCL injury in spring training and then eventually had Tommy John surgery.

Santos, who they acquired from the White Sox, arrived with a lat strain and never really recovered. I think he made eight appearances total last year. If that, it might have only been three. And then had a bicep strain. So he was kind of dinged up. So two of their high leverage arms getting into Andres Munoz the closer were absent And I mean I think Fangrass readers know very well how effective Matt Brash is it generating swings and misses

We contact you know they didn't have a guy that was a strikeout type of pitcher to use in the seventh and eighth inning Because both of them are on the injured list and some of the other relievers like Gabe Spire dealt with some injuries who was outstanding the year before. They just didn't have maybe that bullpen to kind of set up or to kind of play off of the excellent starting pitching. And of course the offense was pretty awful for most of the season. You know, Julio Rodriguez had a very down year and was pretty pedestrian for everything but the final six weeks of the season, maybe the first week of the season and the final six weeks of the season. Ty France, you know, the expected production from him was never there and he was eventually released.

You know, JP Crawford coming off one of his best years as a big leaguer also had a down year and spent a lot of time on the injury list. So I think they felt like injuries and then down years from far too many players was the main culprit for that. I mean, you take a starting staff that was as good as anything in baseball and for them not to make the postseason, you know, despite getting 93 quality starts and starting rotation that threw more innings than any other rotation, I think it's just, it's pretty odd to see that happen. We can get into some of the individual hitters and what they might be able to do this year in a second, but I am curious how the effect of the ballpark has maybe played into some of the

stuff. Petriello wrote a really good article a couple of weeks ago about the difficulty of hitting at T-Mobile Park, which has benefits for the starting staff, obviously, but also makes things pretty difficult. Even if you're a big power bat like Cal Raleigh, he had a couple of home runs knocked down. We saw sort of the overall impact maybe across that lineup. So has the organization contemplated any changes to the park, whether it's the batter's eye, where the walls are? Because some of this stuff I think can be attributed to the individual players, but there does seem to be a bit of hard mode going into any given at bat that guys are battling against. Yeah, Petriello, he's really smart and you know, it does the park plays a factor. You look at the metrics of it all and you know, the cold weather, the marine layers

they call it in April are Adam Judah, one of my co writer, he wrote a story talking about that and just how the ball gets knocked down. It is a factor. They have to play through it through April and May and then also in late September. That was an issue and it does get in the players' heads. Jesse Winker comes to mind, went from Cincinnati to Seattle, not ideal. Justin Smoke, when he was here, back when the fences were even farther away, had a problem. Adrian Beltrade was one of the more famous detractors of T-Mobile Park, or Safeco Field, as it was called when he played, and what it did to right-handed hitters.

You see it throughout. It gets in hitters' heads where the approach that they had at the plate and the swings that they thought were extra base hits or home runs are not. And what often times happens is they try and swing a little harder. In asking Jerry DiPoto and Justin Hollander, a lot of it was just changing the mindset about hitting at the park and understanding that it's going to be hard to hit there. I mean, I haven't heard of any construction to the batter's eye. You know, Teo Teoscar Hernandez felt like everything was crooked.

Home plate was crooked from the mound. You know, Mike Cameron in the past complained about the batter's eye and the glare off of it. And the current players, the ones that are around, you know, JP Crawford and some of those guys, they hate it when it's cold and windy in April and May and the roof is open because the wind swirl and it knocks everything down.

They feel like at least with the roof closed during April and May, it's a little more fair and as somebody who sits in the press box with the wind gusting in at that level, anything to knock down that wind with the roof closed, I'll take it. I mean, it's like honestly, Meg, you know this. It is a miserable experience going to a game in April and May, you better love that team and you better love your seats because it is not enjoyable. I can drink a beer in almost any weather,

but if I'm gonna drink beer in cold weather, it better be at a football game and not a baseball game. One common theme with our two previews today, not a ton of free agent activity, a little more trade activity, but the Mariners, they finally got themselves on the board. They signed a major league free agent, Donovan Solano. So why was there not more activity? This has kind of been a running theme now for the Mariners and the payroll. And did this, is it hurting Jerry not to be more active because we know that he's wired that way? What's the constraint here? Yeah, I mean, the biggest constraint is payroll. They were,

you know, not really given a major bump in salary budget going into this season from last season. I would venture to guess maybe five to eight million, call it that way roughly. They freed up a little bit of money, you know, not exercising the option on Jorge Polanco and then non-tendering Josh Rojas. Part of that money that they saved from those two moves had to go into Calralli and George Kirby getting the arbitration eligibility in their first year and getting significant money for first year arbitration players. Logan Gilbert jumped up and then Randy Arroz Arena, who they acquired at the deadline, all jumped up. So they had some, their payroll went up without even really adding players. adding players and so then with what the ownership budgeted them and everything else they probably had about maybe 10 to 12 million to play with maybe 15. And so I mean 15 million dollars and they had needs at first base second base and third base that just doesn't cover a lot you know it's it's like what is $15 million by you when you want premium impact hitters?

To their credit, they went in trying to get a free agent for Spaceman, a veteran type of guy that was more of a leader. They had a multi-year offer essentially to Carlos Santana, and they thought they were at the goal line multiple times. And then the day Josh Naylor was traded to the Diamondbacks, the Mariners' hopes of selling colors to Santana kind of went out the window because his family lives in Kansas City. You know, the Cleveland organization was very big in his development, and he decided to go back there, essentially taking less money overall to go back to Cleveland.

So that hurt the Mariners. You know, they had some interest in Justin Turner but you know the price tag was a little heavier so they went with Solano who is a nice player. I mean like I think people don't realize how good of a player he is. You know he's not elite defensively despite being kind of a utility guy but he puts together quality of bats and he hits left-handed pitching. He's a great filler piece to fill out a roster, but the problem is, is like, you're not just filling out a roster, you're trying to get positions filled.

And you know, he fit, but there really wasn't much more that they did. Essentially they did bring back Jorge Polanco, signed him to a smaller contract than the $12 million club option they had, and they brought him into play at their base. So that was their two signings, essentially, that they had this offseason. You can argue how much better it makes them in the long run. It looks like this is the lineup that they are likely to have, I suppose, unless they move one of their starters. And this offense really runs through Julio. So what went wrong for Julio in 2024? And how do you anticipate him trying to not only just have a consistent season across

the board, but a year that is sort of commensurate with fans' expectations when he had his incandescent rookie year? It's hard to say exactly kind of what didn't go wrong with Julio. Coming into last season He spent all last offseason working with his coaches down in the Tampa area and made some adjustments to his setup and stance It was a little more straight-legged Less engaged with his legs that didn't seem to work He couldn't find a comfort level with that early on then he went back to his old way

and then really kind of looked stiff and off balance in the batter's box. So there was that level of comfort that just wasn't there. Here's this guy that is the best athlete on the team, built like a wide receiver, runs like a wide receiver, strong, tall enough to be a shooting guard in the NBA, and he looked stiff and uncomfortable and falling around when he would take swings in the batter's box. And that just wasn't working.

There were just too many moving parts. And then there's the mentality. And he has an abnormal sense of responsibility for the organization and its success, specifically the offense. So when they started off slow and he was struggling, you know, he took it upon himself at all of 23 to fix it and to try and kind of will them back into it. And what happened is he tried to do too much a little bit.

You know, it's a familiar saying, but he really did try and like carry the team and got away from what he was supposed to be doing, which is just go out there and play and be yourself and that can carry the team. And I think there was also external pressure from his people, from the Mariners, Brant Brown, the short-term offensive coordinator who was really on him a lot about hitting the perfect pitch and hitting it out of the park, you know, it's got service. Once, initially talking about driving the ball harder to right field and staying on pitches. And then they talked about pull side power because when he started hitting the ball to right field,

it was just kind of singles and they want to pull side power. And then the metrics that show that like when Hulu hits the ball and the air to left field, it's good things happen. But, you know, it wasn't a natural kind of mindset for him. So all of that just kind of kept building, kept building, and it just never got any traction.

And then right after the All-Star break, where they were hoping he felt like he could do some things, you know, there were signs of it here and there. He twists his ankle trying to make a catch against the wall and misses, you know, three or four weeks. And the one thing, too, is like, you're trying to get his legs in the wall. And this is three or four weeks. And the one thing too is like, you're trying to get his legs in a good spot and be athletic and have a solid base from the ground up.

And then all of a sudden you got a high ankle sprain, you don't feel comfortable. So he just never really got any traction. But I do think that, you know, when Scott Service was fired and Jarrett DeHart, the hitting coach was fired, and they brought in Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez. I mean, their voices were different. And I do think like this and service had mentioned this is like

at some point with players like Julio, who are ultra talented and have very rarely tasted extended failure in their careers. There becomes a bottoming out point where you kind of just reset your thinking and then start getting receptive to things and to people that you trust about your swing, about your approach, whatever. And I think that came with Edgar Martinez. I mean, the guy has a statue outside the field. He is one of the best hitters I've ever seen.

My dad still to this day thinks that I should have hit more like Edgar when I was playing in college when I told him this is very hard to do. They just don't hit it to right center like that. Just hit like Edgar. Yeah, just do that. Just do more of that. They were like, Dad, have you seen his forearms are bigger than my calves? So that aspect, having Edgar, his voice was a calming voice, and Edgar and Dan talked

about simplicity. You know, we're not going to try and hunt the perfect pitch and hit it for a homer. No, we're going to get good pitches out over the plate, hit it to center field. You can make the adjustment and pull one when you need to, drive one to right center when you need to. But just basically, they went to him and said, look, all we care about is you hit the ball as hard as possible. We don't care where it goes, we don't care if it's on the ground, we just want you to

hit the ball hard and we want you to simplify with two strikes or with runners on base and hit it up the middle hard. And I think it kind of, that aspect really kind of resonated with Julio and with a lot of other players, the simplified approach and And I think also, you know, Julio made some some small changes to his setup and stance that at the behest of Edgar, then maybe a coach, another coach might not have convinced him to do. But again, when you're at Julio and you're five months into a season and Victor Robles and Dylan Moore have more doubles than you do,

then maybe you have to start looking around and say, OK, something's got to change. And it did. So that aspect of what we saw the last six weeks, you know If he can carry that into this season, that's that's a really big deal because you're right in the sport with nine players coming to play he still His presence still changes so much because he's an elite base runner because he can steal bases with these You know, he's able to score from first on a double, you know, plus the power quotient and all of those other things.

And he does, you know, he does make teams aware of where he's at in the lineup when they're, when they're, when pitchers are there, they know where he's at. And, you know, if you were able to unlock what he's supposed to be, and then you have Cal Raleigh hitting behind him and Randy Orozarena hitting in front of him. Well, that's three really good hitters in a row that you, you know, can do a lot of damage. And then you're factoring in some of these other guys. That gives the lineup a more finished look. But really, like, when the lineup's going, or when Julio's going, it's tough for the offense to be bad.

Because he's just that, he's that dominant in terms of production in all facets. Trying to think of a revolving door reference here since we're listening to the door opening and closing. I guess that's not a revolving door. That's a different kind of door. But right field was not a revolving door because the Mariners acquired Victor Robles. So tell us about the Robles-sants because this was one

of the more surprising in-season resurrections, just career resurrections that I can recall. Guy gets released by the Nationals, shows up in Seattle, basically produces like Julio the rest of the way, about half a season, gets an extension. So how did that happen? And given the babbip that was involved, how sustainable is it? The Robles-sans. Have you written that? And why did not I use it? It's all yours. Yeah. I bequeath it to you. I already wrote a big story on him yesterday and just about his presence and his energy. Victor, victory lap? Is that something? Is that anything? Yeah.

Victor, victory lap? Is that, is that anything? Yeah. Yeah, no, that's, that's, you're, you're trying hard. That's a Larry, Larry Stone type of try there. So like, like with Robles, you know, and, and Depoto has always been a big subscriber to this and I'm not unlike a lot of GMs, but when top prospects or former first round picks are available for the cheap, you take a chance. And like at that point when Robles was available, Dom Canzone was fighting some injuries and hadn't really produced, Mitch Hanager was looking old. Their projected outfield just wasn't what they thought it was going to be. Luke Railey had been scuffling off and on. Here's essentially a free player at the minimum, a guy that everybody knows is athletic and has shown, you know, two weeks stretches.

And there was the one decent season where he was a pretty productive player and like, well, why not take a chance on him? You know, the only thing is they had to give him a major league contract. But at that point, you know, whatever. And so he came in and they were going to use him just kind of as a platoon guy and a pinch runner and defensive replacement and then like a lot of guys start play a little bit more Ken zone got hurt and Julio got hurt that he's playing every day and I

Don't know if it was the change of scenery which he says it is and just like the freeing of his mind That allowed him to kind of access some of his talent he did make some adjustments with jerk heart Hart, the old hitting coach, just simplifying his swing and, you know, with the intent of getting more consistent contact. There is definitely a different flavor in how he plays and how he goes about his business. And there is that energy. And I think, you know, the one thing you can say about service when he was here, he allowed players to be themselves, you if they want to scream and yell and dance whatever as long as they played hard and as long as they prepared to win Every day and prepared to go out and play each night He had no problem with like if you were kind of quirky or goofy personality, you know

They embraced it They thought it was fun and at a time when the team was starting to kind of free fall a little bit and they needed some energy, Victor Robles provided. I mean, like in the moves to create a payroll the year before, they had gotten rid of E. Eugenio Suarez, who kind of provided that dose of energy and the levity to game kind of stuff. And so Robles brought that in. I mean, it wasn't immediate.

He was loud and bombastic, but it wasn't like the level that it became. Once he started playing, and once he was on the bases and he was running around and he was doing everything, then that energy continued to grow. And they gave him the green light. They essentially said, run whatever you want. As long as you believe you can take it go for it and that freed him up. I do think like Dave Martina is a little more rigid and I think you know when you're the hype prospect that Robles was and what he was supposed to do and it doesn't work out and there's all these expectations and then there's failure I think that there's just a difference and so coming to the Mariners freed him up. Now he posted what 333 BA and eight something OPS in 77 games. You

know, and as Jerry DiPoto pointed out to me the other day, he was on pace for a six war season like I don't think they're getting that guy. Like, do I think he's the 230, you know, 670 OPS that he was for most of his career with the Nationals, maybe not that either. But if they can get something in the between, maybe to the good side, and he still plays with Alveda Energy and he gets the stolen bases and has solidified right field a little bit, I think they'll take that. You're not spending a ton of money. If you do want to go platoon style or if you do want to put somebody else out there, you

can put Luke Raley in right field. But I think they're happy with them. It's so weird when you see some of these renaissance with, with like, or robes on says players, but I mean, we have seen that before where a guy that was, you know, ultimately really talented figures it out at 28, 29, Josh Hamilton. For all that he was, it was a very late bloomer because of all the stuff he had to deal with.

And when he finally came on, you know, everybody knew he was talented. It was whether or not he could put it all together. You know, now Robles is a very different player, but the talent is still there and you can see why he was so regarded. Can he be that? I mean, I don't think he'll ever live up

to the prospect hype that he had when he was with the Nationals. I remember when Bryce left, and he was like, oh, that's all mean, I don't think he'll ever live up to the prospect hype that he had when he was with the Nationals. I remember when Bryce left, everybody said, oh, that's all right, we got Robles. And I'm thinking, what? That's how it works. But I think he's good for the Mariners. He's a good fit.

He's aggressive on the bases and he doesn't strike out a lot comparatively, which is good for the Mariners because that's what they did so much last year. And really that was part of the problem hitting identity Not just hitting in T-Mobile Park, but it's can strike out as much as they did. That's not park factors They're striking out right in other places and that you know, that's what killed them at times last year So Robles will try to avoid regression But there are a couple of guys on this team that might enjoy some positive regression. Talk to us about Crawford and Polanco. I know Polanco hit much better in the second half than he did in the first. Crawford, obviously, as you mentioned, had

a down year relative to his career year the year before. He's had a year a lot. So what are those guys hoping to do to have a 2025 that's both more consistent and more productive than last year? I think with Crawford, it's being healthy as well. His two injuries, oblique strain and then fractured hand, those are two things that just don't really help you swing a bat very well. And he said that basically, even when he came back, there was discomfort in the oblique playing through it. He said it never felt good when he swung the bat for most of the season. And I think that's a product of you look the year before, he was one of the more competitive

at bats they would have. I think he led the league in walks. He had 360 on base. And then he doesn't. The next year, he's swinging and miss, or he's fouling off hittable pitches, swinging and missing more pitches because he's behind in counts and really just looked completely out of sorts. And a lot of it he attributes to being so banged up that he never felt like his swing was in a place where he could hit pitches that he's supposed to hit hard. He had a little bit of bad luck as well on some BABIP stuff. But I don't know that he's the guy that we saw in 23, that kind of numbers, that kind of power production.

But I do think he's not a 199 to 210 hitter, and I don't think he strikes out at 27% rate. I think he's 260 to 275 with a higher OVP. And I do think also they're not going to bat him lead off. I wouldn't think I'd expect them to bat lower in the order. If other people are doing their jobs the way they are, I don't think it falls on JP to kind of carry them because he really did in 2023. It was him and Julio and Cal towards the end JP was their most competitive hitter at times until Julio's ridiculous August So I think he has to get it out of his mind that he has to do those things and just get kind of back to Being the guy that that was kind of unexpected to do those things and just get kind of back to being the guy that was kind of unexpected

to do those things in 2023. As for Polanco, I think it's health mostly. They talked about the patellar tendon and the knee just causing all sorts of issues from loading his swing and feeling comfortable. I think you look at everything he does in the box and how he goes about his business, you know, I think he can hit as long as, you know, the legs are healthy. And for as big as like, some of these players are upper body, you see the big arms and everything. The basis of a good swing is the legs. It all starts from the ground up. And if your legs are not healthy, more often or not, you're not going to have a good swing and you're not going to produce. And I think with Palonco, his legs were just so beat up that he

never really could feel comfortable and couldn't put in the pregame work that he normally does because you're doing maintenance on your legs and your body to be healthy. HOFFMAN If Kal Raleigh isn't the best catcher in baseball, he's darn close. And part of that is his durability, is the fact that he catches not only well, but a lot. He just catches more than anyone else catches. He led the majors in Innings Cot last year, 153 games in 2024, 145 games in 2023. How does he do that?

Can he keep doing that? And does it even matter what the plan is for backup catcher? I don't know how he does it. I mean, this guy is six foot four, you know, 240 pounds, most of it in the lower half of his body. Yeah. I didn't think that durability was the D word that Ben was going to deploy that way. I find it truly amazing that he's able to do that and be as effective as he is. You think about the beating he takes on a daily basis, the foul tips, being down there and really commanding the game. And it's a lot, but he is committed to the preparation and part of it is the preparation of keeping his body healthy and he really has Figured out a way to stay on the field. I don't know if you can keep doing that every single year

And it's funny is like every single year they say oh we got a we got to give Cal more days off But the problem is is one he never wants any days off to it's hard to give him days off when he's one of your is one, he never wants any days off. Two, it's hard to give him days off when he's one of your best hitters and you're not hitting. And then three, what he does with the pitchers when he's out there, like his understanding of game planning, of reacting to what pitchers have in a game, the leadership quotient of getting prepared to go out every day and having, you know, an idea of what he wants the pitchers to do and how to beat teams is off the charts. And every pitcher wants to throw to him. Every pitcher wants him in the game

when they're pitching because they know that he's prepared more than they have and the Mariners pitchers prepare a lot. Now, do they think he's a grumpus that never wants that should never be shaken off and all that stuff Yes, which is what I love about Cal Cal and I are the similar grouchy old man status and it's great. No, I can't And Meg knows this I covered a lot of bad catching when I first started covering the Mariners back in 2006 Kenji, Joe Juma and then Miguel Olivo and Rob Johnson, Jeff Clement. There's a list of them. It started with Zanino, who was great, but Cal is probably, in a lot of ways, Cal is

everything that people thought Zanino was going to be and better. You know, he's a better, the averages are never going to look pretty, but the homers and stuff and the way he does it and the defense and everything else, it is truly impressive. And you know, I remember one time they were talking about some teams had called upon Cal, I think it was the Marlins, and a few years ago when he had just made his debut and the Mariners were just against it. And I was kind of wondering why, and then you see it and you're just like, okay, yeah, now I get it. And I can't even imagine that they believe that, you know, he was a third round pick and held out for a bit for a little bit extra money being a Boris guy like they all do. And, you know, it went down for a while and they Mariners finally signed him. And, you know,

I don't think they would expect even expecting what they've gotten from him now. I mean, like, you know, I kind of writing our big feature story on Cal and just his impact. And like, I think I have a line that I've kind of been playing with that he isn't, he might not be listed as the captain of the team and he might not be the captain of the team, but he's the overall conscience of the team. When it comes to playing hard and preparing and going out there and kind of doing

what you're supposed to do. I mean, like, that's a hard thing. Like if your legs are sore or whatever, you know, my back's a little tighter. I got a stiff neck and you look at Cal, you're like, yeah, I gotta play because this guy just took 95 off his shoulder and he's back in here today.

You know, like that's, that just doesn't, you just can't be soft when you have Cal Raleigh on your team because he won't allow it just by example alone. Yeah, it's really a relisance. That's what I would call it. I was gonna stand up for Kenji Jojima because, you know, he was all right, but then I looked at his framing stats and that was not so good.

But he was okay the first couple of years, but we don't have the framing stats for those years. So that's fine. I love Joe. He was the nicest guy and he's, you know, my mom's Japanese and he's Japanese and we talked a lot about that stuff, but I used to joke that he had a frying pan inside of his glove because it just would hit and come out. It was a different time. Yeah. Well, we'll get to that pitching staff in a second.

It is a little odd that we've gotten this far into the Mariners preview and we have not talked about the obvious strengths of this team. But our top 100 just went live. And for the first time in a while, it is led not by a bunch of pitchers as far as the Mariners are concerned, but by an impressive group of young hitters. And there were a couple of guys who didn't quite make the hundred, but who were picks to click for Eric. So talk to us about this young

prospect group on the position player side. And are there any guys in that mix who you think might end up seeing time in the big leagues this year? Yeah, it's, you know, for so many years, it was just Logan and George and Bryce, and Brian Wu. And then now, it's Colt Emerson and Cole Young, Lazaro Montes, Michael Arroyo. They have Johnny Farmello, who's one of their better ones that's not even participating. They have an abundance and a big credit of that goes to Scott Hunter.

They're a director of amateur scouting. Their drafts have been outstanding. Now they've had first round picks and good spots. They had three first pound picks a few years ago. They got three high school kids. But they have continually kind of shown that how they select players and how they draft them and where they draft them, they find value

and they find players that fit what they want. And they usually find players that seem to adjust quickly to the professional baseball, especially these high school kids. You go out there today, and I was out there taking video today in the group, and it's Michael Arroyo, who's going to be playing for Columbia in the World Baseball Classic. It's Laz Montez, who they call him Baby Jordan, just a man-child. Then they have Colt Emerson, who's probably their top prospect.

And they're in the same group hitting. And then the group before that is Cole Young, who I think will be a second baseman at some point here in the near future. They have Ben Williamson, who is an underrated prospect, who could debut this year. They have so many prospects. And then they don't even have a handful

that are pretty talented, like Ty Pete, that are even in big league camp So so of that group obviously I think that Cole Young Or Harry Ford would be the first to to get a chance this season Ben Williamson as well They're the three that will be the closest they're gonna be at triple-a Tacoma to start the season If Cole Young plays well, and they're struggling to find a second baseman I think he gets every opportunity to come up and make his MLB debut. Okay, well, I think it's okay that we waited until now to talk about the pitching because

there are fewer questions about the pitching. The pitching is good. We know that. So I guess there was some question in the Petriello article about how much is the park affecting the pitching? How much is that making the pitching look like it's amazing? Cause on the road, the pitching is good, but not so superlative and the offense is decent too, right?

So it's a, the park effect works both ways, I guess, but clearly it's a good pitching staff regardless of the park. So is there even any question about any of the top few guys? You've got Gilbert, you got Castillo, you got Kirby, Miller, Wu. Like it's one of the more stable set fives that any team has here. So I guess the question is, can any of those guys take additional steps forward? Especially the guys at the back of that rotation. And what does the depth look like if needed?

Yeah, I mean, I think the step forward would be for, I think, Brian Wu and I guess Brian Wu mostly is just finish a full season. He missed some time last year with a forearm strain kind of early in camp and then had a hamstring strain midway through the season. And then, and kind of what he struggled with a little bit too is kind of pushing through, you know, pushing through fatigue, some of the stuff like that. Once the season got going, he was fully healthy. Kal Raleigh kind of talked with him a little bit about that,

about what it means to get six innings and seven innings and to pitch and find ways to do that, you know, the value of Cal again. And then for the other guys, yeah, I guess it is, like there is some significant splits. I mean, Bryce Miller's home road splits are very significant. I think there is a comfort level,

like one, you're just comfortable pitching there, but two, like, you know you can challenge guys with fastballs and like, yeah, they might hit it out, but they're gonna have to earn it. This isn't like pitching at Yankee Stadium. And I think there is a level of aggressiveness that's even, that's gone up. I mean, it's not like these guys, I mean, you look at the walk percentages on any of these guys,

it's pretty minimal. Like their belief in attacking hitters and throwing it over the plate and going after guys is high level. I think it'd be natural for any set of pitchers though, like if your home park is less punitive even on contact, then you're going to be slightly more aggressive. So I do think like, and Bryce Miller talked about that, just about not abandoning that mindset even when you're on the road and not being afraid to give up contact or to throw it more towards the middle of the plate,

especially in the sense of getting ahead. I mean, that's the biggest thing, is their plan is to get ahead, a race to two strikes, and if they can do that, they have success. And sometimes I think when they got on the road, you see Aaron Judge, you see Juan Soto, you nibble you nibble a little bit and all sudden it's 2-0 It's three run and that's a place they don't want to be and

that's just not something that happens on home at the home park a lot because Even if they ambush a first pitch, you know a lot of times it isn't go as far as they think it's gonna go So I think that's a big thing is maybe getting that. But I mean, these guys, it seems like they add a new pitch every year. Bryce Miller throws like eight pitches legitimately. Logan throws seven.

Bryce has got a cutter. Logan's got a different curve ball. Brian Wu is working on a curve ball that he learned from Bryce. I mean, and then George Kirby is just off on his own listening to dubstep, going against the wall and, you know, throwing strikes and getting angry. Like today in a live VP, he had a 3-0 count against Luke Railey and I thought he was going to eat his hat. He

was so bitter about going 3-0 on somebody. Ben talked about the stability in that rotation and it has been stable, but there was talk this off season that Luis Castillo might be on his way out of town in trade. I'm curious how real and focused those trade talks were and whether you think they are closed or if there's the possibility that he or anyone else in that rotation might get sent away if it brings back meaningful reinforcement for the offense. 06 I think they went in the offseason with no real plans to trade Luis. Like I think they thought, you know, this is our group and this is how we want it to be. And then eventually when you're

at the winter meetings and you see that, you know, Nathan Ovalde gets three at 75 and Lee Severino is getting 17, 18 million dollars a year and Matt Boyd is getting $13 million a year and Frankie Montos getting $18 million a year. You're looking around going, okay, well Luis Castillo at 22.75 a season for three seasons is pretty affordable for what you're going to get. So I think they started to listen more, that they looked at it like, okay, maybe the position player market wasn't flushing out the way they thought. Teams were not really interested in trading major league talent for prospects.

No. And they thought, okay, well we could thread this needle. What if we trade Castillo and get back major league talent, but we also get salary relief so you can take 10 million or whatever it is from this year, throw it into the money you do have to maybe go get aggressive and go get another player at a higher level than maybe at a higher price point than maybe you were targeting. And that was the needle they were trying to thread, but I don't think it was as realistic as they had hoped. Part of it is Castillo has a full no trade clause through this season. Now next season, I mean like come off season next year,

his name will get bandied about and they're going to listen to offers and they could move him. But this year he had a full no trade and they had talked to him about it. And I think they had an idea of some of the teams he was willing to go to and some that he wasn't. So I don't think it ever got past that, because I think most of the teams that needed Luis Castillo or wanted Luis Castillo weren't really keen on giving up major league talent to get Luis Castillo because they weren't in a position to go out and adjust it on the free agent market.

You know, if you give up an infielder, can you go out and then therefore sign Bregman or somebody like that? They couldn't make that work or, you know, like the Red Sox, they were linked with Casas and that just never got to the point where a football term, you're in the red zone with a trade and they just never got that point. So Matt Brash had Tommy John surgery in early May. What's he looking like and what does the rest of that bullpen hierarchy look like until he returns? So Brash is gonna be back, they're hoping by May. You know, he had the internal brace surgery, not the full Tommy John. So their hope is that, you know, a quicker recovery plan. He can be back by end of April, early May. Jackson Kohler, similar.

They're hoping he's back maybe by June. He also had Tommy John. He's the guy they got in the trade that sent Jared Kellnett to the Braves. You know, brass being back by late April, early May would be beneficial. Now I don't think they're just going to run him out there. And you know, they're going to be kind of cautious early on. But I think, you know, you get him back, it just changes the whole shape of the bullpen. So that's their plan. They're hoping by, I would say, at the latest by May 1st that he's out there. And how does, as Ben said, the hierarchy sort of shake out in his absence? You saw Munoz,

but you mentioned a couple of guys at the beginning of this conversation who were injured last year. How were they sequencing them and thinking about how they bridged Munoz? Yeah, I think Gregory Santos right now would be, you know, the initial guy that maybe the setup guy, the eighth inning guy, him along with Gabe Spire. Like if there's a couple of lefties, you're going to know you're going to face in that eighth, and it would be Spire.

This is a team that didn't really believe in a closer until a year ago. Even with Seawald, they would kind of move guys around in that kind of situation. But you know, right now Santos and Spire, they would be the likely ones. A guy named Colin Snyder, who they got on a waivers claim, I believe, or a cash trade a year ago. He filled in very well in that role, kind of similar to what Justin Toppa did for them

at one point. It took a little while, but he's got kind of the ground ball sinker type of thing going. You know, and who knows? I mean, they have some arms in camp that could surprise. Shintaro Fujii Nama is an interesting guy. I mean, it's 100 coming out. It's nasty breaking stuff. You just don't know if it's going hit the mascot or anything. So, similar with some other guys, but I think that right now it would be Santos and Snyder, a rookie named Troy Taylor last year, really, he went up from AA. He turned some heads, but he's a little behind because he had a latch training. So he might not be ready to go by opening day.

But I think their hope is just piece it together as much as you can till May and June and then really get everybody back and healthy. So what constitutes success for the Seattle Mariners in 2025? I guess the obvious answer is try making the playoffs this time, but beyond that, or is there anything beyond that, how should fans gauge just the success of the season, the progress of the organization at large? Well, I think that's the baseline minimum of what you need to get, you know, is the playoffs. Make the playoffs, and that's the goal.

And then if you, you know, anything beyond that, because I think that's the's the thing you know in the Mariners saw that two years ago with the Rangers you lose you you miss by one game and the Rangers who you're in division that you probably were better than at several points for the season they win the World Series so get into the tournament and then see how things shake out I think that's the big thing is we have not really seen what this starting rotation can do in a season. You get Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and then some combination of Bryce Miller, Brian Woo for your rotation, and the other one bumps into the bullpen. I mean, like, that's some options.

Like, they have quality starters that could really lock down offences in the postseason. They just got to get there. And I don't know, you look at the team as constructed, you see even as bad as their offense was last year, you saw 85 wins. I can see this team winning 85 just because of the pitching alone, if it stays healthy. And then if you can just get a little bit more from your bullpen and get a little bit more from your office then you kick up to 88 or 90. I don't really know what to expect from the Astros or the Rangers this year. I kind of know what to

expect from the Angels but even the A's were so much more competitive last year so like I think making the postseason should be the floor of what your expectations are. And then beyond that, you're trying to win the division and, you know, get that by into the first round so you can really set up your pitching and go. All right. We can follow Ryan Divish writing about the Mariners at the Seattle Times throughout the season. For now, I suppose we will show you the door.

Yeah, show me the door. Yeah, I've got Justin Hollander yelling at me from up above right now, and John Chenier, one of their analysts, was excited that I was coming on. So I should have had him come on as well. Yeah, former Effectively Wild statistician, stack keeper. Yes. Emeritus. Yeah. Yeah, he's, he said, I heard you're gonna be on, so. My apologies to the listeners. I should have found a better place than the front door. I didn't realize that this was going to turn into Grand Central Station today.

Always a pleasure to talk to you regardless. All right, that segment was an open and shut case. Now we will take a quick break and we'll be right back with C. Trent Rosecrans pleasure to talk to you regardless. Alright, that segment was an open and shut case. Now we will take a quick break and we'll be right back with C. Trent Rosecrans to discuss the Cincinnati Reds mercifully with a minimum of background noise. Where do you go in a world of bad takes? For the good takes on baseball and life with a balance of analytics and humor, philosophical music. Well, we are joined now by a recurring guest who's been with us on the podcast intermittently since 2013.

It's been quite a while, but here he is. He is a senior writer for The Athletic. He covers the Cincinnati Reds. He is C. Trent Rosecrans. Hello, Trent. 12 years, really? Yeah, we've been doing this a while and you've been doing it with us for a while.

Oh my. Well, the Reds have undergone a lot of change during that time, although maybe not quite as much as fans might've hoped at certain points and in certain ways, but. I thought you were gonna say not as much as we have and I at certain points and in certain ways, but- I thought you were going to say not as much as we have. And I was like, oh boy, got existential. Yeah.

Before we talk about 2025, let's just talk about 2024 for a minute because 2023 was the moment when the Reds got exciting again. And even though we had a longstanding bit about not talking about the Reds here at Effectively Wild, we were finding ourselves talking about them fairly frequently. And it seemed like that might increase if anything. And it did not. I think we regressed in our Reds discussion last year. Ellie aside, Ellie.

Right, right. Yeah, in his own category. But the Reds, they won 82 games in 2023, and then they went back down to 77 just when it looked like they were breaking through. Now, I guess their Pythagorean record actually improved, and they had 82 Pythagorean wins in 2024. So raise the banner, I guess. They did not have a winning Pythagorean record in 2023,

but why did the Reds fail to take a step forward, and at least wins and losses wise wise actually took a slight step back. I think a big part of it was some of the guys who were responsible for that big step forward, namely Matt McLean wasn't there, you know, and also 2023, you'll look at it. TJ Friedle had a career year. I think he had three IL stints, including to start the season, and was never, never healthy. And so right there, that's, you know, if you want to go to the old cliches, but you know, cliches are cliches for a reason, about being strong

up the middle. There was a lot there that they lost and TJ Friedle and Matt McLean. And also, you know, both those guys are top of the lineup guys or were. And so I think that was a big part of it. But you did see a step forward from Elie, Elie De La Cruz, some pretty big steps forward, honestly. Spencer Steer, his numbers weren't as great. He was also a little hobbled some. Christian and Karnazio and Strand barely played.

So I think those are some of the big ones. It's just those, you know, those young guys that we were all excited about did the things that happened in baseball where guys aren't healthy or take a step back or combination of the two. It's funny because I feel like last off season we were sitting there thinking, they got too

many infielders. They got too many infielders for too many spots. Where are they going to put all these guys? And they go out and they sign Candelario. Then, like you noted, there were a bunch of injuries. Marte gets suspended, which we haven't even really talked about in a while, being Marte. I guess as they look ahead to this year's instantiation of the Reds, which of the guys who you named do you think are sort of primed to get back on the right track? And it might just be suddenly they're healthy again.

But if you're a Reds fan and you're looking for hope beyond Ellie, which is a great place to look, but if you want hope beyond that, sort of what of that in field group are you thinking is going to sort of make a meaningful contribution this year? 05.00 I'm super high on Matt McLean. I think Matt McLean is one heck of a baseball player and is a guy who could be a top of the lineup. You could play him going again to that up the middle. You could play him in any of those three spots, center field, second base or shortstop and feel good. You know, we spent again, like last off season, the big thing is, well, what are they gonna do

about Jonathan India? Where is he gonna play? He's never played anywhere but second as a pro. And ended up where he didn't play anywhere but second as a pro again. You know, I kind of feel like short stops are a lot like starting pitchers to me, you can never have too many because starting pitchers can become relievers

and short stops can become second baseman, third baseman, outfielders, all over the place. So that's kind of where I am is that you can never have too many of those guys. So I was never really on that camp, but it was funny because you also again you mentioned oily Martez Suspension you had Matt McLean's injury and you also had an injury to Ed Edwin Arroyo One of their top prospects who came along with Marte and that deal That was where it was and then they had to go out and get Santiago Espinal who who really Saved their bacon last year because he was he was I mean he was an excellent fielder

And then once he got playing time he he he hit so That was a last week of spring training Desperation move that they needed somebody who could, who could play shortstop if Ellie were something happened to him. But you know, Ellie then played 150 or I think he played in 160 games started at shortstop and most of those. So it was, they were lucky that they didn't have that. And but yeah, you're right.

That was kind of the big thought. And sometimes it's, you know, how many years in a row have we said the Dodgers have too many pitchers and camp and then you get to the World Series and they're just throwing dudes out there and winning games. But you know, that's kind of where it was. Yeah, I guess the Reds are testing the can't have too many starting pitchers idea. We'll get to that in just a second.

But let's stick in the infield or wherever Gavin Lux ends up playing because the Reds didn't spend a whole lot in free agency this off season. I think only three teams have spent less, but they were pretty active in the trade market. Guys going, guys coming, and they shipped out Jonathan India, got back Brady Singer, and Joey Weimer went with India. And then they brought in Gavin Lux, and they seemed to be interested in maybe making him a multi-position guy. So tell us a little bit about the decision to deal India and what they see in Lux, which was an acquisition that I quite liked, although when I heard super utility type player, I was kind of

thinking, is there evidence that he can do that? I don't know. So I'm kind of with you, but like I think I wrote at the time, it's not about where he plays in the field. It's that his bat is in the lineup. They do have the designated header now, but you also have Jamer Kendallario and Christian Cronenstrand and Tyler Stevenson. But this is a team that got very little out of their DH,

their outfield or offensive production. I think first and third, they were among the worst. And in the outfield, they were among the worst. So everywhere but up the middle, you know, like everywhere but Ellie, Jonathan India and Tyler Stevenson was a struggle for production offensively. So I think that that's the biggest thing. And it's like, let's we can get a bat. We can get it for relatively cheaply.

Let's go. Let's just let's just see, let the chips fall where they may. Because again, last year they thought they had too many infielders and they ended up not having enough. But Gavin Lux is a guy who can hit and that's kind of what they're banking on. Yeah. It does seem like they've kind of gotten themselves into trouble with that. Have bat, will travel idea. They have a reputation at least lately

for having forced square players into round holes or however that goes, you know, Nick Zenzel maybe would be an example. Shinsu Chu played center for this team. Right, so is this another example of, yeah, we'll just figure out the defense, but sometimes where you're playing in the field affects your performance at the play too. Well, it certainly can, especially for a young player like Nick Sencel.

But, you know, Chen Shi Chiu was good. And this is a ballpark where for the Reds, I think part of the calculus is for 81 games, you know, you don't have to be the best center fielder. You don't have to be Jose Siri, who's who, you know, the Mets signed to cover two positions. You can be T.J. Friedle and be a solid center fielder there. You can go into left and I mean, honestly, and left, you keep the ball in front of you and you don't have to throw that far.

And if it goes behind you, it's probably out. So I think the ballpark does play into that a bit, but yeah, it's an issue. Some guys were better at it than others. Steer doesn't great out great a lot of places and that's because of range. And that will also hurt. I remember Jay Bruce talking about that all the time. He was like you know those

advanced numbers a lot of them I'm hurt by my ballpark because you just can't get great outfield numbers in this ballpark if you're a right fielder and when he was playing with Billy Hamilton it was just like yeah I it says I just stand there but what can I do with Billy on one side and then pop flies going over the fence behind me. So it is, it is something that they've tried to figure out and try to use that as an advantage to get some guys in that lineup. But as we saw last year, that didn't even help.

I was trying to think of a joke about fitting the six foot five Ellie Dela Cruz into a round hole or square hole or any kind of hole. It's funny that a guy so big in Crane Lake actually is the most obvious fit at his position here. Let's go with that. And Ellie had a phenomenal 20-24. He was a six and a half win player by our estimation of it.

Good on offense, 118 WRC plus, good defense at short, he stole 67 bases. What remains for Ellie to do? I don't even think he scratched. I think that is an Ellie light of what could be expected. It's funny, I go back to 2022, I believe. I went down to the Southern League and watched Chattanooga play at Rocket City. And I went there for six games just to sit on him. And I remember coming back and writing and all this and be like, man, I might be overhyping this guy. And now I kind of look back at it and I was like, maybe I was under hyping him. We all see it. Like it's just the potential is off the charts because you know, he's an 80 runner.

He's got 80 power. He's a good fielder. He's got an 80 arm. You know, like it's just kind of nuts. I think the biggest thing for Ellie is just the game slowing down a little bit more, making the routine plays on defense more than the spectacular ones

or the ones where his range is rewarded. And then maybe some of that comes at the plate where it's just, his strikeout rate's still really high and it's gonna be high just because of how big he is, how long he is, the swings. But you know, you take that down a notch, you know, bump that down a little the slider and bump the walks over on the slider a tad and take off the silly errors. And I'm talking about all these things. This is a guy who led the major leagues in errors.

You know, we all have various things and strikeouts, but yet was still what's what would you say six and a half for a player or five and a half or six and a half? Yeah. Yeah, it's like, okay. So he did those two things that you would regularly think of as not ideal. And he was the most extreme in Major League Baseball in errors and strikeouts, and yet was one of the most valuable players. And if you just knock those downs a little bit, where are the numbers then? Yeah, his defense DRS thought he was just so-so and Statcast thought he was excellent. And I guess there were disagreements on some other Reds like Jonathan India, who was well below average in DRS, but right around par in Statcast.

But overall, both stats agreed that the Reds were not a good defensive team. So in what ways are they attempting to improve that? Well, I think Matt McLean is a big part of that. And I guess it's just what I said, Matt McLean and TJ Friedle is shoring up that middle. I still wonder where the long-term center fielder is. I think if TJ is back like he was 2023, Center fielder is. I think if TJ is back like he was 2023, I'm fine there. But you know, he's still, I don't think you can count on that. I think that's a big part of it. A lot of it is just the maturation of young players and really of Ellie. And then you hope that you have someone who's playing third base every day or most days, just, and it's not as mix and match as it had been. Third base and first base were revolving doors and I was like,

who's going to be playing there? So that's a big thing. And then, you know, I think this is one of their more underrated pickups is of Jose Trevino. And that's a guy who's going to, you know, be pretty darn good defensively. And I think that's going to carry over some. It also puts Stevenson at DH a little bit more, possibly maybe some first base. Because I think it would be unwise to have Jose Trevino and not have him play more than Luke Mailey did a year ago yeah, I wanted to ask about the catcher position because Stevenson had a nice bounce back at the plate and his defense graded out well Also, plus I love it when a catcher has one stolen base one stolen base from a catcher is, I think, one of my favorite statistical phenomena. Oh, here's a got one for you, Meg,

if that's your job. Look up my man, Corky Miller, who is the Reds. Corky. Corky. Corky Miller has one career stolen base. It is a steal of home. That's fantastic. I mean, it was a, you know, throw it a second.

And it was his rookie know throw it a second. It was his rookie season too. Yeah, so That is there's your platonic ideal. I believe yeah a proud proud Reds tradition Seemingly, but I'm curious, you know, what do you what do you attribute the the bounce pack to for Stevenson? And then what are you expecting from him? It sounds like some for space and DH duty, but you know, how do you see that playing out for him this year? What kind of guy is he now? You know, he's, he's one of the better catchers, like all around catchers around.

You know, it's always been bat first with, with Tyler, but you look at him. And he's this like big dude, powerful dude. I remember in the draft, big talk was about this like home run back flip he had and the power, but he's always been like a good, like solid gap to gap hitter and has a good eye and a good idea at the plate. And two years ago, there were just tons of entries, or three years ago, I guess. And then last year, not, or two years ago, not as much. And then this past season, he was, he was very good.

And I think it was just like so much of this is health. And I know it's a boring answer to keep coming back to. And it's a frustrating one for the Reds because a couple of years ago, they redid their entire like health and performance staff and all that. So it's something they've been searching to get healthy and some of these were bad luck. Like Matt McClain and Edwin Arroyo were diving back into a bag and just hit their shoulder wrong. And so those things happen. TJ Friedl, he got off the IL from a broken wrist and like two days later

got hit in the hand and broke his thumb. Christian and Kronosian Strand was hit in the hand. These are things that it's not that you were not training hard enough for your hands. You got a 90 mile an hour or 95, 98, whatever mile an hour pitch, you're in the hand. It's going to break a bone. I hate to keep going back to that, but like Tyler had one that bounced off his clavicle a couple of years ago. He had his thumb broken on another foul tip. It's part of the cost of doing business for a catcher.

But he is a guy who just has a very, he's always had a very mature approach at the plate and that is helpful. And so even when he was struggling, his approach kind of stayed steady. And I think it just caught up last year to where he was. So we talked about the lack of free agent additions. It was basically Scott Barlow and Austin Hayes, but the activity on the trademark and attempted activity that didn't come to fruition. They tried to go get Luis Robert, which maybe we'll ask you about.

But was that a payroll related thing that they were mostly active in trades or was that just fits for the roster or why was so much of their activity this off season concentrated in trades? I think it's a little bit of both. this off season concentrated in trades? I think it's a little bit of both. And the other part of it, what they really needed was outfield help and outfield bats. And I think they kind of looked at the free agent market

and the outfield and they were just like, okay, we're not gonna be in the Soto sweepstakes. And they looked around and they're like, this other stuff, you know, it's like going car shopping and I'm like, everything is priced like, like a, like a Mercedes. And I'm like, I just need to get around town. Like, I just need, like, I need a truck. They weren't fits and you could have spent a lot of money, but it almost like,

why double down on again, the square peg and a round hole like Jamer Candelario. And that was one of those moves. And that looks, you know, it never made sense to me, but even like a year out now, you just, you have to squint even harder for it to make sense. And so I think they were unwilling to overpay for a player they only kind of wanted. So was Robert one of those players that they only kind of

wanted or did they really want him? What scuttled that one? They really wanted him, but they also really wanted Edwin Arroyo and Sal Stewart. Those are guys whose names were coming up. And again, I think that was, oh, here's the truck I like, but I'm not gonna pay this price for it. And, you know, there were prospects they were willing to give up,

but I think those were two of the names that I heard that they were just like, hey, I don't know if that's worth the risk because those guys are guys they really, really like. Yeah. Maybe we can talk about some of those guys within the context of the rotation. Because one guy they did trade for successfully, as we mentioned, was Brady Singer.

So you have a rotation right now of Hunter Green, Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott, Nick Martinez, Nick Lodolo. But you also have a lot of really exciting arms, uh, still down in the minor leagues, many of whom rated very highly on our recent top 100. So talk to us about the rotation as it is currently constituted and then talk to us about what the rotation might look like if some of those young guys get an opportunity in 2025. Yeah.

I mean, you start with Rhett Lauder, if you're talking about the future, because this is a guy who came up at the end of last year, made six very, very good starts. Was really impressive. And he was one of those guys that I think last spring were sitting here like high floor, not as quite a high ceiling, but yet he looked pretty damn good when he got to the big leagues. I think the rotation starts with Hunter Green. This is a guy that was again number two overall pick, a high draft pick, and was an all-star last year. And you saw Hunter Green kind of being moving from that what's he going to be to being, you know,

in the parlance of the game of one, two, or three, and really improving and kind of taking it. The next step for him is to finish a season without seeing the IL. You know, Nick Lodolo is a guy that, when he is on the mound, he's fantastic. But he had, I think, three or four different IL trips last year and still made his career high in innings.

And so that one's tough and it's little things with him. It's these blisters and it's these finger issues. So that's a thing. But you have a guy like Brady Singer, the big part for them, and poor Brady Singer, for a person with his kind of peripherals and the way he styles, he goes from a place that's pretty good for him to a place that, not really ideal conditions for a Brady Singer. But he's also a guy that like, you know,

the best pitchers I've seen in my time here are the ones who just don't care about that. When the pitchers get it in the ballpark in their head, it gets in their head. And so if he can avoid that, you just have to go into it. I mean, Sonny Gray, I remember Sonny just feeling like, yeah, some of those are going to go out. It's okay. They're going to go out for my guys too.

And that's almost the job you've, that's kind of the idea you've got to take. But, but he pitched 170 innings and I, I'm trying to, I'm racking my brain for the last time a Reds starter threw 170 innings. I gotta, I'm sure I have looked that up at some point, but I don't remember it off the top of my head. Yeah. Green, I think led all pitchers in baseball reference war and yeah, FanGraphs, FanGraphs war was a little lower on him. I think, led all pitchers in baseball reference war and FanGraph's war was a little lower on him. I think this is maybe one of those wonky baseball reference pitching war things where a guy

gets a boost for being on a bad defensive team, but that defense didn't actually play that poorly behind him. So it's almost like a double counting kind of scenario. But he has seemed like the kind of guy who has the potential to legitimately lead a league in pitching war. So it's not as if he doesn't have that talent. So, you know, he did get Cy Young votes. He was an all-star. So is it just health, as you said, like, is there anything else that he needs to do? I think there's the body and you've seen it. He's, he's not, I think he came in last year. He was a little bigger last year than he is this year. Um, and it's

just a maturation process. Uh, you know, he didn't, he hadn't pitched much when he became a pro because he was a two way player and he was this, you know, he got babied for good reason in high school, then had Tommy John surgery. So he did not for as much like hype as he had. He didn't have a whole lot of innings under his belt, even amateur innings, because it was so closely regulated in his youth. And he was a pro at 17. I mean, he was at 17 pitching in the rookie league.

And back when that existed in Billings, Montana, that I went to see him. But he's a guy. It's just it's that learning curve and getting it all and putting it all together. And I think that they really like what they see. And I think he could be a guy. I don't think he was, you know, I would agree more with the FanGrafts war last year than the baseball reference war, but I don't think he was the best, but you could say he was among the best. To be clear, he didn't have a bad war by our estimation. It was just muted compared to B-Refs. Yeah, he was almost a four-win player for us.

Yeah, he's a four-win pitcher, four-win starter. How many of those have the Reds had? Right? You know, Johnny Quedo, you know, Trevor Bauer on the side young, but that was in a shortened season. So I don't think he got four or more then in 60 games, but you know, a four-war starter for the Reds, that's pretty impressive. I want to ask about another one of the young guys,

just because I might be getting a little prospect greedy here. But do you think that there's a chance that we see Chase Burns in the big leagues this year? For our listeners, this is a guy who was a 2024 draft pick, the second overall pick in the draft, and so has not even thrown an affiliated inning yet. He was shut down after the draft, not because of injury, just because he had thrown a hundred innings for Wake last year, but he sure looks big league ready. Do you think there's any chance we see Burns in 2025? Certainly.

And one of the things that really helped the Reds with that plan that they had to not pitch him last year, because he was really champing at the bit to come out. And he said he was, first he was really frustrated that they didn't send him out. And as soon as Rhett Louder, their, you know, top pick the year before out of Wake Forest made his debut in the same year that he was in that exact same situation. Burns was like, OK, cool. You told me you'd give me a chance if I earn it. There's a shot. And Rhett did so I can do it. And I've talked to Chase about that. And he said, yeah, it was

tough. But once he saw Rhett make the big leagues in the first year, he was like, all right, cool. It's not just lip service. And he has someone who's been in his exact same spot that is able to make that leap. And so I think that was really helpful for him, but it also plays to the possibility. Yeah, I wouldn't count Chase Burns out for pitching in the big leagues this year at all. CB I was looking up four war starters for the Reds or four war pitchers period. And yeah, not a whole lot of them. Green didn't quite get there. He was close. But in the past decade, it's really just Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray in 2019. Those are the only guys. And then go beyond that, it's probably Quedo and then before that. Homer Bailey got there and then yeah, there's a lot of Aaron

Herring and let's see, Bronson Arroyo maybe one year. Aaron Herring. Let's remember some guys. You go back to the beginning of Great American Ballpark and that's it. Yeah. Matt Latos, Jose Rio, the great. but that was not a great American ballpark. Yeah. No, this is nineties.

Yeah. Yeah. Pete Shurick. Yeah. John Smiley. Yeah. So Tom Seaver, right? Like that's where we're going to, we're going to be reaching for Tom Seaver.

Yeah. Even the whole history of the franchise pitching wise is just not particularly, not that there's like anything that the Reds of today have in common with the Red history of the franchise, pitching wise, is just not particularly, not that there's like anything that the Reds of today have in common with the Reds of many decades ago, but it has been an organizational trait for one reason or another. Well, it's insane. Like, I mean, Trevor Bauer in 2020 was their first ever Cy Young winner. Yeah. And they've never had anyone win a Cy Young in a regular, like 162 game season,

or even 154. Well, yeah, that's not great. And they've been around. This is not the Diamondbacks or Rockies. They're not exactly new. Yeah, who was it? I was trying to think, I guess Emilio Pagan was another guy that people thought, oh, I don't know how well this

will work in Cincinnati, right? And I guess it didn't work that great, but. Well, he was never right last year. He had a umbilical hernia surgery entering the season and then some nagging little injuries, but that was bullpen depth and he's back this year. He accepted his option, which tells you what kind of year he had last year. It was his side that activated it.

Yeah, we'll see. That's a reliever and some of these guys, we'll see. Well, and maybe we can talk about some of the other relievers because this was another place where trades reinforced the reds. So they traded for Taylor, not Tyler, not Trevor, Taylor Rogers, Taylor Rogers. Please do that one more time because I have had this issue as well. Taylor Rogers, Taylor. Right. The left-handed one.

Left-handed one. Yep. Taylor. So they traded for Taylor Rogers. Alexis Diaz will come back. Hopefully we see some return to form from him. But talk to us about how this bullpen is going to fit together and what they saw in Taylor, Taylor Rogers that they liked. Pete Slauson I think with him, it was just, there was an opportunity. San Francisco was shopping him around and they're like all right if we can get him on clearance we'll take a shot and so I really think that's what that was. It's like we'll take a shot with a clearance rack item and it's 50% off. Heck, you know, we'll give it a shot. Diaz is a guy He needs to get back and have that

The high 90s that miss stuff that he had he doesn't he doesn't throw quite as hard as his brother speaking of brothers Are we only going to speak of relievers who have brothers who are big league brothers? He doesn't quite have the raw velocity of his brother, but he has a lot of the other characteristics. And if you're just a tick below good Edwin Diaz, then you're pretty good. But like both brothers struggled last year. If he gets back to form, you know, that's a really good closer. And even if you look at it last year, and I kind of went back at the numbers near the end of the year, a lot of his runs were given up in these situations

where it wasn't the come and get three outs. And he would do the come in and get three outs and converted the majority of his save opportunities. But it was a couple of those other ones that inflated things. And he never, and to be fair, he never quite looked like the guy he was the year before. And there was also a gut feeling.

Like that two years ago, he would come in and you're like, all right, this game's over. And then last year it was more like, okay, got a good chance, but it wasn't game over. And then you have, you know, you add Barlow, you add, you bring back Pagan, and Souter is kind of more deep down there. There are a couple of prospects that I really, really like

in the back of that bullpen may be coming up in Zach Maxwell, who is a large, large human. He wears the same 78 in spring training the last two years and it's, I always think of like Anthony Munoz. I actually saw Anthony Munoz in the airport. I walked by him in the airport on my way out here and I think Zach Maxwell is bigger than Anthony Munoz now. The other one is Luis May, who was the outstanding closer and, um, there was on a fall league, he won the reliever of the year in the ACL. And I believe it was something like crazy.

Meg, you probably know this. It's like of the X amount of fastest pitches thrown in the AFL this year, he had probably like 85% of them or something. And he was the only one who was over a hundred and he was up to like 102 in the AFL. Yeah. He had a zero ERA. He gave up one hit. And it was, it was like a, it was a bleeder. It was like a excuse me type hit and he only walked three. And that's the big issue because you look at his numbers before that. And there are a lot of walks.

Same with Zach Maxwell, but they're guys. It's just, you know, yesterday they were both through live BP's the day before recording this and they were 99, 98, both of them in February. And a live BP and, and Maxwell, I mean, Maxwell made McLean look bad on a breaking ball. And it's just like, you know, it's that, that earliest camp where you get these first live BP is that you may be a little overly excited about some young guys. But those are two guys, you know, Graham Ashcraft, we didn't mention him as in

the starting competition. And he's certainly in there for years. I mean, really, since they drafted Ashcraft, they've kind of seen him as a possible back end of the bullpen type guy. And this could be the year that he moves into that role. And that's someone Tony Santillon. I'm a big believer in Tony Santian. So, so they've got some guys.

It's not, I don't know, bullpens. Only the Rays know how to build a bullpen. They are the only team I'm convinced that has that magic formula and everybody else is just trying to figure it out and hope they get lucky. One guy that they will not be bringing back is Fernando Cruz, who went to the Yankees in that Trevino trade. And speaking of swing and miss stuff, he has that. And he hasn't been in the big leagues that long.

He's 34 years old, so he's not like some young phenom or something. But he was really perplexing because only one guy over the past couple of seasons has had a bigger ERA minus FIP gap, and that's Aaron Bummer, who had a big one in 2023. But Cruz, it's not even, I mean, the BABIP was high, but it was more about not being able to strand runners and work out of trouble. He just got hit a lot harder with men on, with runners in scoring position,

or I don't know if he got hit harder, but he certainly, more damage was done against him. So did they think that this is not a fluke? This is just something that he will have to fix and that they kind of give up on that happening? No, I think they just really wanted Trevignio. I think it was it was one of those where they to get Trevignio, they they knew they had to give something up. And I mean, I and I'm guessing the Yankees, they saw Cruz up close. And when I think last July, he had a huge battle with Aaron Judge and really came through that pitch. His his splitter is it's, it's an anomaly pitch, right?

Every catcher I talked to, they're just like, oh yeah, it's a knuckle ball, but it's a knuckle ball at like 90 and it just, you can't like the catchers talked about how hard it was to catch. And so for hitters and, and every hitter knew what was coming and it didn't matter. And so it's a, it's a really great pitch. He's a great clubhouse guy, just a phenomenal story. He didn't play in affiliated leagues for I think it was like eight, seven, eight years

and just kept plugging along and kept pushing himself. And the Reds took a chance on him and it turned out to be a really, really useful pitcher for them and I think part of that it was like, okay, we're gonna sell high on this and but we really, really like Trevino and we think that is something that could help this team. Well, speaking of things that could help this team, we kind of buried the lead here potentially. I guess we could have started here,

but maybe this reflects how much we think managers matter in general, but if any manager matters, it might be Terry Francona, who's now the manager of the Cincinnati Reds. So how has that changed things in camp thus far? What convinced him to come back? Does he have any concerns about subjecting himself and his health to the rigors of this job again?

What kind of difference will this make for this team? I think other people have more concerns about him and the rigors than, than Tito does. And, you know, at some point he just said, you know, I, I, I couldn't give it up. He just, he just couldn't give up the managing and he said, you know, he just, that, that feeling, he's like that feeling in your throat and eight, eight, you know, in a tie game in the eighth inning, like he's like, I just couldn't replicate that. You couldn't replicate it with watching Arizona basketball or golfing or whatever.

No, there is only one thing that gives him that rush. And, and, and this is it. And I think there was part of it where he was, he played one year in Cincinnati and had a connection here. He was telling us a story about Marty Brenneman, the longtime Reds announcer who is, but he's still around. And Marty and Tito are friends going back to 1987 when Frank Hona was a member of the Reds. And Tito has told us a story about the messages that Marty would leave on his voicemail during the 2004 World Series, just like, don't F it up and all these things. And like all these things. And he said he would play them on the bus for teams, for the team during the World

Series and players were like, oh, is that really your friend? He would speak to you like that. And if you know Marty, you know, he exactly will. And that is him expressing his, his admiration. But it's like, you know, there was something that Marty called him at some point over the winter, like after David Bell had been fired and just kind of floated the idea. And I think I think it just kind of got excited. It's like he looked at the team. He saw some young players. One of the things I keep coming back to with Francona is he has had a Latin superstar in Boston

and in Cleveland and now he has Elie De La Cruz. You know, when you had David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, who's his own thing, but you know, you have David Ortiz and he and Francona are so close. And now over in Cleveland, you have Ramirez and it's just like, this guy is Jose Ramirez is one of the best players in baseball. Francona, I just, I hate to like go all about the vibes, but it just feels relaxed. You don't hear him walking around the field. He lets his coaches coach and he just kind of like sits there and he was talking about like just sitting and listening to Wade Miley, how much he enjoyed doing that.

And he is I keep going back to this and it's no coincidence that the the feeling I get and this is just a feeling is very similar. Keep saying there's Dusty Baker vibes. The last team this last time this team was consistently good was with Dusty Baker, Dusty is one of those people that I tell everyone that you could spend a whole day with Dusty Baker, have 12 hours of the greatest conversations of your life, and never talk about baseball. And he finds a way to connect with every single human. Tito is the same way, that he finds a way to connect with everybody, but the basis will be baseball, and you'll probably have the funniest conversations of your life.

And they will, many will be baseball related. But that is that is part of it. And then to bring in Brad Mills, who was not with Tito the last couple of years in Cleveland, who was his longtime bench coach, has been with them every stop of the way. And they, you know, he was the guy that his college coach had Mills look after Tito, make sure he went to class and that kind of thing. And didn't get into too much trouble when Frank Hona was like the best college baseball player in the country. And so that goes back and Mills is just, you know, he's kind of the glue to a lot of Francona's teams. She talked to people and that is such a huge part.

And Brad, who hadn't been in the game after the tragic death of his grandson, it was time for him to, he was just like, Tito didn't really, didn't recruit him. Um, but Brad wanted to come back. And, and so that was, I think that's an interesting dynamic. And then they did something else with the coaching staff that I, you know, we've heard a lot of weird things about coaching staff over the last couple of years, but they have two bench coaches.

And the one that's been the bench coach here the last six, I think it was six years. And then the guy who's been Frank Conas. And, you know, of course the incumbent was Freddie Benavides, who is a guy that is just has so much respect in this organization. And it was kind of neat. So Mills and Francona went out to see Freddie at his home in Laredo, Texas, and say, hey, would you do this? That they wanted him. Both Francona and Mills wanted to keep Freddie on the staff and not disrespect him

as a guy who interviewed for the job and a guy who'd been a bench coach and not to take a step down. And so in talking to those two guys, they work really well together. And from all I'd heard about Brad, I expected that. And from everything I knew about Freddie, that's what I expected. Well, I'm happy for you that you still have an interesting conversationalist around, even though Dusty has long since departed and Joey Votto is retired. At least you can talk to Tito. Some things cannot be replaced. Joey was one of a kind in all the best way.

But like, it's crazy. I went, I kind of think about it. I've been covering the Reds for best way but like it's crazy. I went I Kind of think about I've been covering the Reds for a long time and it's the only big league team I've covered but I went and had an overlap a one year of Ken Griffey jr. And Joey Vato and then I had one year overlap of Joey Vato and Ellie Dela Cruz. Yeah of Joey Votto and Ellie Dela Cruz. Yeah. Well, our final question is what would constitute success for the Cincinnati Reds this season?

Will they take that step forward? What would it look like? How should Reds fans gauge whether this season was a success? I think it's a playoff appearance. I mean, you know, you had two years ago that surprise, can we get over the top to to a winning team? And it's it's very similar again to the Dusty.

Yeah, they brought Dusty in in 2009, kind of took him a young team and got him to the next step that next year in 2010. And they were in the playoffs in 10, 12 and 13. And really in 12 may have had the best team in baseball. 12 and 13 and really in 12 may have had the best team in baseball. And Johnny Quedo injury changed their trajectory there. So I think it's playoffs. Playoffs is success. You don't go out and get Terry Francona to not go to the playoffs.

All right. We'll see if that happens. We will follow along with your coverage, as always, at The Athletic. Thank you very much, Trent, for coming on once again. Yeah, not a problem. Talk to you next year. Maybe even sooner, if the Ritz are good.

Who knows? Or depending on what season two of the Acolyte is like. I'm not the Acoolyte, I'm sorry. Not so much. Yeah. I'm not going to hold my breath for that one. Sadly, that's not going to happen. Sadly, I liked the acolyte.

Season two of Endor though. Of Endor, yes. That's, yeah, wrong A, Star Wars short show. Yeah. Unbelievable. I'm ashamed. And you guys should keep this in and shame me properly as someone who has a tauntaun tattooed on their leg.

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