Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2291: Season Preview Series: Phillies and Guardians

Episode Date: March 6, 2025

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about whether the challenge system will inevitably pave the way for full ABS, the degrees of difficulty for two-way Travis Hunter vs. two-way Shohei Ohtani, and (very briefly) reinstating Pete Rose. Then they preview the 2025 Philadelphia Phillies (36:58) with The Athletic’s Matt Gelb, and the 2025 Cleveland Guardians […]

Effectively Wild, Effectively Wild, Effectively Wild, Effectively Wild. Hello and welcome to episode 2191 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from FanGraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of The Ringer joined by Meg Raleigh of FanGraphs. Hello Meg. Hello Ben. Getting a late start. I don't know why I'm talking about. I don't know either, but I'm rolling with it. We're doing a bit now. We got a little bit.

Talking in a very Barney Rubble, yogi bear-esque cadence here. This is a late start to our week, but we'll end up in the same place we always do, three episodes like clockwork. You never know when they're gonna come out, but they're gonna come out, you can count on that. And today you can count on two more previews. We're gonna be talking to a couple of athletic writers.

Matt Gelb of The Athletic will be here to talk to us about the Philadelphia Phillies, followed of course by Zach Meisel, who will talk to us about the Cleveland Guardians. Yes, we're finally getting to the Guardians preview. Sorry for the delay, Guardians fans. A couple of things before we get to that, just a bit of banter. I've been wondering something about the challenge system and I'm curious about your thoughts. So we've talked about how it seems to be going smoothly other than the odd matchers or objection.

Everyone seems to be more or less rolling with the testing of the challenge system in the spring training. It seems like we're headed very likely for challenge system in MLB games as soon as next year. I wonder though, if the challenge system is a success, do you think there's a realistic scenario where we have challenge system long-term, permanently, no one talks about full ABS total robo-umps anymore,

we're all just happy with the challenge system and that's how it will stay? Or do you think it's more likely that this is just a stop along the way? That it's inevitable that if we go part of the way, there's a slippery slope, inevitably you're going to get all of the calls called by the system.

Here's why I ask. I'm not in favor of that necessarily. I'm just saying, will we surrender to the inevitable at some point? Because it seems like that's the way things have gone. Once we had replay available at home and anyone watching on TV could see when the ump screwed up. Very embarrassing. And once we were all aware of that, it just seemed untenable long term that we could all

instantly see these mistakes, but for some reason in the game, they couldn't see or correct them. Once we had that technology, once it was easy and once it was widely accessible, probably it was inevitable that that was going to show up in games. It certainly has all across sports and leagues and countries, right? So it was going to happen. It took maybe longer than people would have anticipated, but it was coming. Maybe you could say the same about ABS, whether it's full ABS or the challenge system. Once we had pitch tracking that was precise and rapid.

Once we had K-zone strike zone boxes on TV and we could quickly and clearly see when something that was called a strike was probably not a strike or something that was called a ball was probably not a ball, were we headed for the same sort of solution? Well, we can't have the people at home watching this instantly seeing the mistakes, but we can't have any mechanism to correct them in games. Okay, so then we get the challenge system. Will we then equally inevitably arrive at a point where let's say the challenge

system is perfectly smoothly implemented and everyone likes it and no fuss, no muss, wouldn't then the likely next step be for people to say, well, this went smoothly, why then should we not go all the way? If we're okay with correcting some calls, and this doesn't seem to have disrupted the sport in a way that we don't want, well, why are we persisting in getting some calls incorrect? Why not just cut out the middleman or at least remove the responsibility from the middleman and go full computer? That's my concern and increasingly my expectation. I don't know how long it'll take,

but it just seems to me that once you break the seal with ABS, you're gonna get to, well, we might as well call all the pitches that way. I think it's definitely possible, right? I don't want to be naive to our seeming preemptive, at times ill-advised, embrace of technology. Like as a species, we seem to be really keen on that even when like, isn't the best. So, I do think that there's a distinct possibility. I don't know that I view it as an inevitability for a couple of reasons.

The first of which is, and I think I expressed this on a prior pod, umps are really good in general and I do think that this is going to afford us opportunities to maybe have a growing appreciation for the underlying skill of home plate umpires. I also think it is illustrating to a lot of people, like just how fine the calibration is on ABS and that it is perhaps setting people up to be mad about a new problem, which is an overly precise and rigid strike zone. People don't want bad blown calls, but I think fans actually do think about the strike zone more probabilistically than they realize, even if they wouldn't necessarily express it to themselves in those terms. And so I do think that there are going to be opportunities

for, you know, the thinking fan to be like, oh, wow, that was actually quite close. That was very close. I don't know if I want that to be a strike, right? So I think that people are going to kind of ruminate on that more than we maybe realize. And by the way, Davey Andrews has posted fan graphs the other day. I'll just shout that out because that was, I think, a good point that he made, that we're essentially setting up a system of two strike zones. Right. Now, not just in the sense that computers call one and people call the other, but also they are definitionally different because the strike zone,

as it is currently called is a volume. It's, it's not just a plane. It is at least in theory, it's supposed to be if the pitch passes over the area over home plate, any of that area, then it's a strike. Whereas the current definition that they're using that they're testing in spring training is just a flat plane. If it breaks that plane, what at the midpoint of home plate? And they've changed this over the years.

They tried the volume, they've done front of the plate, they've done more back of the plate. Now they've come up with midpoint of the plate. But it is sort of strange in the sense that when we have an appeal, unless they change this in the next year, however long it is until this is actually implemented in MLP, then you might get UMPs calling things by one definition and then the computer calling them

by another definition. So not even just being more precise in observing the rulebook definition, but actually having a different definition of what constitutes a strike, which maybe that wouldn't make that much of a difference on that many calls, but it is kind of uncomfortable philosophically speaking. AMT – It is sort of psychologically inconsistent. That's overly dramatic. I meant to say philosophically inconsistent. Maybe it is psychologically inconsistent. We're all just on the edge all the time here, aren't we? But I think that, like, yes, but also fans have

perhaps without realizing been dealing with like strike zone discordance the entire time they've been alive and observing baseball, right? Because like the zone that's being called isn't quite the zone that's in the rule book and people think they want the rule book zone, but they're just going to get pissed about. Here's the thing that sits at the core of all of this, which is we want good things to happen to the team we like and bad things to happen to the team we don't. And so you should have a good zone and you should have a zone that's consistent

and you should have a zone that doesn't involve again, the game ending on like a blown call. I agree with all of those things, which is part of why I like the challenge system. But I also think we just have to sit with the notion that we will never be happy with the strike zone because there will be strikes that are called or balls that are called and they are true strikes or they are true balls. I don't know how I feel about that as a turn of phrase. We're going to leave it in, but I'm dubious about it. I don't know how I feel about that as a turn of phrase. We're gonna leave it in but I'm Dubious about it. I don't feel like I I nailed that one, you know

but they are going to be actual strikes and and Real balls. I don't know if I like that any better either But they're still gonna make us mad Ben because're going to go against our guys. And we want everything good to happen to our guys. And we want everything, maybe not everything, everything bad to happen to the other team. That's a little dark, but we want our dudes to emerge triumphant. And insofar as the zone being called fairly or unfairly damages our dudes, it's less about the reality of the zone and more about the damage done. And sure, maybe there's some comfort in seeing like your guys get got by like,

uh, an actual strike or, you know, the opposing batter walk because of a pitch that is thrown, you know, well outside the zone. Sure. But it's a cold comfort and we will find things to bitch and moan about regardless. So there's, there's that. I also think like the fact that this is being largely and obviously, you know, we talked when we talked about this in the past, that there are people who just have like an aesthetic distaste for the challenge system, but that it has been received largely without friction, I think will work in its favor because it's not like people are going to say, oh, this sucks and it's taking too long. And so just call the whole game that way. Like that isn't in addition

to like our experience of it being positive, that's not like a logically consistent argument to make, right? Because it's like, oh, it's just going to slow everything down. So I think it might be okay. And I think that part of what will also help it be okay is the fact that the stakeholders within the game seem to really like the challenge system. So I think if you had like one side of this was the fan reaction and one side of it was internal stakeholders and the internal Stakeholders were like no give us full ABS It would be different right because you'd have like a constituency for that argument within the rules committee

And it doesn't seem like that constituency really exists. Like, clearly the umpires aren't going to advocate for that. They do get a say in the rules committee. They don't get the biggest say, but they get a say. And then, you know, players seem to like the challenge system fine, although I guess we'll see how that maybe changes or evolves as more big leaguers interact with it on a regular basis. And, you know, when it has been used in the

minor leagues or in the fall league, like people like the challenge system and when they have had full ABS have been like, no, thank you. So all of that to say, possibly, I think it is a looming threat that we have to be on guard for. But I don't think that it is as obvious and inevitability if only because it really does address like the big problem which is a playoff game ending on a buh-buh-buh and We will hopefully not have that and I do think people like I don't know I would so part of why we're recording today Wednesday rather than Tuesday or usual days that I was out at Campbell back yesterday And when I'm gonna go to that side of the valley,

you got to really make it a whole day, Ben, or otherwise, like, why are you dealing with that traffic? And I went because I wanted to, we were hopeful and we were right that Rokey would pitch and then they lined up that way, that Rokey pitched. He looked good. He looked good. To quote, uh, FanGraph's lead prospect, Eric long and Hagen, Lee prospect analyst. He's not the lead prospect.

We don't have any prospects. I mean, we had good. Yeah, he's maxed out. He's a, yeah, he's lived up to his, his prospect potential. Yes. As he noted, uh, and I am going to do a swear, um, because it is a direct quote, I am comfortable leaving the swear in copy. Um, Ben, you and Shane can

discuss amongst yourselves if you want to do that. But it's violent as f**k. The delivery is just violent as f**k. But boy, Staccats had no idea what to do with those splitters. It was just like, what is that? What is that pitch? Eventually figured it out. But initially it was very confused. So all of that to say, I went out, I saw the Dodgers play the Reds. I didn't see the Reds challenging, we only had a couple of challengeable calls because apparently they're not doing that, which is doofy as we've discussed. But like there were a couple of challenges in that game.

One unsuccessful, one successful, and people were into it. People seemed to enjoy it. It was so quick. It was, you know, and people were like, Tommy, good job. Cause I think Tommy Edmonds was successful. I don't recall who did the other one, but anyway, it was just like a, it was fine. It like washed over people in a way that was not, they were not annoyed or unpleasant. And sure, it's a like anecdotal sample of the couple of people around us, including the woman who was coughing so much behind me. And if that lady got me sick, I'm going to be so mad. But anyway, like people seem to be fine with it

and enjoying it. Yeah, I think that's the thing that could save it potentially the entertainment value, the suspense, the seeing the little graphic, the getting to tell whether the player is good at challenging or not, because I'm not going to pretend that people care about the finer points of catcher defense, most people the way that we do, and some of the other intricacies and subtleties of the strike zone, and the delicate dance between pitcher and batter, and also the catcher and the umpire and planning for all of those things and the way the zone expands and contracts, these things that I care about, I think probably most fans don't care about nearly as much, but I could see that they might just be entertained by the challenging process, at least initially.

And you're right that this has been tested for years, they've tried full ABS, they've tried challenge, and at least according to MLB and it's purported surveys, people prefer challenge. Now that could be maybe because they don't totally trust full ABS and so perhaps they say, well, let's try this, let's dip our toes in and see whether the water's warm before we sink our full selves in. So maybe it's more of an incremental preference. It's just, yeah, I want something better than getting lots of calls incorrect, but I don't want it fully BS.

So let's try the happy medium. And maybe if the happy medium really makes them happy, then they'll decide, okay, let's keep going. I feel comfortable with this now. And so this has been the proof of concept and now we can extend this fully. So I'm open to the possibility that that's just kind of

an intermediate opinion that people have held and that that will evolve over time because it is just, it's tough to hold those things in your head where even when you said umpires have improved, they certainly have, but when we say that umpires have gotten better, what we mean by that really is that they come closer to conforming to the automatic strike zone or to the rule book zone or the zone as it would be

called by ABS most likely. And so if one of the selling points in favor of preserving the human element is, Hey, the human element is closer to the robot zone. Then that doesn't really become a selling point for most people. So that's all I'm saying. It's almost like the more successful the implementation of the challenge system is seemingly to me, the more danger there is that you won't stop there, which is kind of counterintuitive because if the challenge system is a great success, then

you might say, okay, then we'll keep the challenge system. This is working. Why mess with success? But I think it might ultimately go the other way where we just say, okay, then we'll keep the challenge system. This is working, why mess with success? But I think it might ultimately go the other way where we just say, yeah, this is good, but you know, it would be even better if no calls were wrong. Why should we tolerate any calls

when we can get some overturned than why live with less than that? That's my concern, but I could completely see it going the other way too. So we will find out. I definitely think the possibility exists. I hope we resist the instinct because I do think that it is,

I think it's good for all, we don't have to re-litigate all the reasons. I think it's good. There's so many reasons and I am right. But also people have been swayed by tech before to their detriment and doom. Last thing I want to ask you about, you know that I'm quite partial to two-way players,

specifically Shohei Otani, but not solely Shohei Otani. I like two-way players in all of their incarnations, in all sports. In fact, I just wrote about goalie goals in hockey. For the ringer, I'm a hockey writer now. I'm honoring my Canadian heritage. That's honor with a U in there. And I wrote about that because I'm always tickled when a goalie scores a goal. It's like the ultimate two-way play. You certainly don't expect that guy to go on offense, but every now and then it happens. And I wrote about why it's happening

more often and what that means for sports in general, which I think is more tolerance of risk, less risk aversion. That's one of the reasons why there are more goalie goals in hockey now is that players are pulled more often, goalies are pulled earlier and more often. So kind of counter-intuitively there are more goalie goals because goalies are spending less time on the ice. And so you need an empty net in order for a goalie to score a goal. And that's why we're seeing more goalie goals, more empty nets, because

the numbers support that. And so we're seeing that sweeping across sports really. It's not just pulling the goalie more often and earlier. It's also swinging for the fences, baseball, or swinging away instead of sacrificing or throwing the ball right down the middle, instead of trying to locate precisely on the corner or going forward on right down the middle instead of trying to locate precisely on the corner or going forward on fourth down in football or two point conversions or three point shooting

in small ball and basketball or playing from the back in soccer or serving to your forehand side on your second serve in tennis. There's so many examples, but that's my takeaway about goalie goals. However, the larger takeaway is I love two-way players. And so I've been interested in Travis Hunter and I have referred to him as probably many of people

have as the Shohei Otani of college football. This is of course the reigning Heisman winner and one of the top prospects in the NFL draft coming out of Colorado. Colorado, Colorado. I know many Colorado Colorado, Colorado say Colorado, I know many Coloradans say Colorado, but I just can't bring myself to do it. I've made the switch to Oregon as a person who grew up saying Oregon in New York, but I just can't quite bring myself to say Colorado. I'm sorry.

Anyway, Travis Hunter was asked about whether what he does is more difficult than what Shohei Otani does, which is, that's bait. Probably should leave that one alone, I guess, and maybe he will learn to say less interesting things so that he doesn't get quoted. But he answered, and I appreciate a candid answer, and asked which he thought was harder, what he does in football or what Otani does in baseball,

Hunter said, probably me, what I do in football, because it's a lot on your body, you know Otani, he's a great player, but you gotta do a lot in football, which is certainly true. You do have to do a lot in football. So a lot of people gave him grief for this. And I don't know whether it was because it was seen as self-aggrandizing, oh, he should be humble,

he should be modest, he hasn't even made it to the NFL yet, who is he to say that what he does is harder than what Shohei Otani does? But also I think people sincerely legitimately think that he's wrong, that it's just not harder to do what he does than it is to do what Otani does. And you are a football watcher as well as a baseball expert. And so I wonder what you think because I certainly didn't see this as much as I enjoy and admire

Shohei Otani. I didn't see this and say, the gall, how could he say such a thing? I think what he does is incredibly difficult. So I think it's defensible to say that what he does is harder. But what do you think? To be a pitcher and a batter, a DH and elite at both, or to be a wide receiver and a cornerback, an offensive player and a defensive player in football to take many more snaps than anyone else does over the course of a season,

which strikes you as harder to do. Okay, so I think that there's a way in which they are both right, right? I think so too, yeah. Because I do think that in terms of the physical toll of playing football, and I don't say this as if guys can't get hurt, guys don't get tired, guys don't get injured playing baseball, they absolutely do. But in terms of the physical toll of the game, I think that at least at its extremes,

obviously more potentially damaging to play football than to play baseball. Damaging in like a big career ending, potentially life threatening way, but also just in terms of like, what is a guy who wakes up on Monday after playing an NFL game as a starter? what does that dude feel like? I just think like they are in a car wreck once a week. There are places where you start to maybe say that there's like a particular kind of physical toll that baseball plays takes on players that is different than it is for football players, particularly position players who are playing every day such a long season in terms of like the wear on the body by the time September or October rolls around.

Okay. I think that, you know, that maybe is more of a conversation, but just in terms of like the literal damage you incur as a football player, much higher. Having said that, here's the way in which I think he's wrong. And like, I've never played football, um wide receiver at cornerback, there's a lot of overlap in those skill sets actually. Right? In a way that is very different than being the best hitter at baseball and one of the

better pitchers in baseball. And so in that respect, I think that Ohtani has him lapped because it's just, it's really quite different to be a pitcher, to take the field as a pitcher and then to step into the box and be a high level hitter. It's not that cornerback and receiver are exactly the same, they're not, but there can be some amount of fungibility between those positions and we have seen guys who come up as one and end up converting to the other, often due to the quality of their hands. But you'll hear on an NFL broadcast, I mean, you might not because you don't really get

into those, but it's very common on a Sunday or on a Saturday when Hunter has been playing up until now, to hear an announcer talk about how the wide out became like a corner or vice versa, depending on how a ball is thrown and if a wide receiver is having to essentially defend that pass because his quarterback threw it in such a way that would have been an interception if he hadn't played the ball like a defender. So I think there's just too much overlap in the skill set to say that from a difficulty of skill execution perspective that what Otani's doing is easier than what Travis Hunter is doing. But in terms of the difficulty of playing high level football at all from a toll on one's body perspective, I think that there's an argument to be made. Now, I'm sure that if you play a full 162 as a position player, you might be like, there is greater potential for trauma in football than there is in baseball. But what I am doing is a greater test of endurance. And like, I would be open to that as an argument. I think that there's like something to be said on both ends of

that. But you hear like retired football players talk about just like the, where their bodies are even, even setting aside the CTE stuff, right? But just like where, what their bodies are like when they're in their forties and fs. And like, it's rough, man. Like, it is really hard to hear these guys talk about, like, the daily impact that football is having on their lives, many years, decades removed from the game. You watch any of the, like, the commentary shows, and there's always a former player, and he puts his hand up to make a point and you're just like, Oh my god, what is wrong with your finger, dude? And it's just like sticking love. It's just sticking the wrong way Ben. Yeah, it'll just be

Bent in the wrong in the wrong Direction hands. Yeah, no, it is worse than catcher hands It's like you can tell he got it hooked in and then went and anyway anyway But look, I think that there is a case to be made that is like detached from ego that he is, right? I don't think that this is like purely a manifestation of him being like but but but but but also Like this is a young man at the NFL combine trying to get drafted and being able to talk about your skillset the way that he does like has some value. I know that like it might rub some folks the wrong way is like, oh my God, I can't believe how conceited he is. But I think that

it's okay. I mean, I don't know if that's the way he's like reasoning through the question, that I don't know, but I also think that like what he does is very impressive. Like being able to play cornerback and receiver at a high level, even though there is overlap in those positions from a skillset perspective is super impressive. Yeah. It's not like anyone else is doing it currently. I mean, there have been more recent precedents than Babe Ruth and Bullet Rogan in Shohei Otani's case, but still it's uncommon. And I guess you could say that's partly because you don't necessarily need to have players to

play those same positions if the skill sets aren't that differentiated or maybe just the wear and tear isn't worth it. Maybe it's more about that than the skill sets. But yeah, I kind of interpreted what he said as being about just the damage that's done to you over the course of 1400 snaps in a season playing both ways. And yeah, and it's not as if baseball players don't get hurt too. Shohei Otani, case in point, that guy has had several surgeries just during his time in MLB. Knee, shoulder, elbow, multiple times. So that takes a toll too, but generally in baseball it's not full contact, it's not life-threatening or quality of life-threatening injuries,

with some exceptions, whereas in football that's just an ever-present risk. So I think yes, you can interpret what Travis Hunter said as being very much about that. And I think you're right about the less differentiated skill sets, although even that I don't know whether that's the sole criterion because what if he were a kicker, let's say, what if he were a wide receiver and a kicker? Those would be more differentiated skill sets, but he'd be probably a less impressive athlete to me if he were an elite kicker. I mean, maybe that's more comparable to what Otani does in the sense that it's two skill sets that are essentially decoupled from each other. Pitchers are not

really selected based on their batting ability, and batters are somewhat selected based on how good their arm is, but not to that extent. So it's just two separate groups of players. That is why pitchers were so awful at hitting before we were spared the sight of seeing them try. So if you were a kicker, would you say that was more comparable? Or I'd probably say, athletically speaking, endurance-wise, it's less impressive. But on another level, maybe it is more impressive because, hey, these are just two different

skills. But then it's like, what if he were the best at, I don't know, beer pong or something in addition to being a great wide receiver, like cup stacking? I mean, he could be the best at any other thing, right? But it's like if it's just some random thing that's not quite as difficult or as highly prized, then where do you draw the line between like these are just two skills that have very little to do with each other and that actually makes it less impressive in a sense.

They're just there's so many ways one could evaluate this. Kaitlin Luna Yeah. I mean, if he were like a, I mean, he wouldn't be able to do it, but because the demands of the position I'm about to name are so extreme that there's no way. And also if he were really good at being a quarterback, he'd just be a quarterback. They'd never be like, oh, you should also be a corner. They'd be like, no, wrap yourself in bubble wrap the rest of the time. But I do think that the like, the better football comp might be if he was a high level defensive player and also could play quarterback well.

Yeah. You know, and again, that's never going to happen. I understand. I understand. Don't write your emails. I know you don't have to write your emails. I I'm hearing you. I'm hearing myself, you know? But I think that that would be the closer comp because I don't want to say that anybody can be a kicker because that's not true. And when they're bad, like it wrecks your whole Sunday. But there's just a lot more turnover at that position. There are a lot more guys who are perceived to be able to do it in part because like, you know, sometimes you'll hear about a guy where it's like, he came to this school on a scholarship to play soccer. And then

they were like, let's get that leg out there. And then one of his legs gets a lot bigger than the other, you know, that happens. Like one of their legs will be weird, like be a lot bigger, not always, but sometimes you'll see them standing like in camp and they're still wearing shorts and you're like what is going on? Stephen how ska like you need to do some like work to balance the other one out Why is that like so and I know why but also not the best So anyway all of that to say that I think that you would need Not only a differentiation in the skill set of the position, but also you need to have a higher degree

of difficulty in the differentiation. And you need to have not only, um, between like football and another sport, like there's a reason that they go to soccer players and then sometimes convert them and take to kickers. Um, but also just like you would need to have the other thing be harder than kicking, which it like, I couldn't do it, but I'm, I'm a baseball person, you know, like a baseball media type. There's a lot about it. I couldn't do.

Well, I greatly respect what Travis Hunter has done and I hope that he gets to keep doing it and that he gets the same opportunity to keep trying this in the NFL that Otani has had in MLB, we will see. I also think that Travis Hunter's head coach at Colorado, what Deion Sanders did, is more impressive than all of the above. I think that being a two-way player in multiple sports that are loosely correlated in terms of their athletic demands, yeah, that, I fear we may never see that happen again, but it's kind of amazing that that happened

in our lifetime. Yeah, I really like how much more attention to other sports you have to pay now that you're doing Hang Up on Lesson. I know, I'm pretty well versed in other sports. I've heard of them. Let's talk about football, you know? We're gonna get you to a point where you're

going to look back to my frustration that I expressed off mic about Tyler Locke getting released in DK Metcalf requesting a trade and you're going to be like Meg was right. I have some Seahawks thoughts. Yes. I have so many thoughts about these Seattle Seahawks. Also everyone should just like go check out Eric Long and Higgins' little cut up video from the Roki outing because it's fun to watch. I saw people blue skying about like, what should I watch the State of the Union? And I wanted to be like, I invite you to watch Roki Sasaki, you know? Just do that.

That's a good time. It was a good, Ben, it was a good time. I do worry about him kind of snapping in half, but what pitcher don't you worry about that with, you know? I would much rather watch Roki Sasaki than an almost two hour address to Congress, which the pedants pointed out was not a State of the Union. It was a big week for pedants

because it was just the first address after inauguration, technically not a State of the Union. That's right. By the way, speaking of things that Donald Trump has said, we are not talking about Pete Rose today. We did talk at some length about Donald Trump and politics on our most recent Patreon bonus episode, so check that out if you want to hear us talk about that. Everyone's been so nice about, so thanks everyone for that.

Actually, yes, it's nice that people didn't get mad at us about that. Yeah, it's been very heartening. Yes, but Donald Trump did truth about Pete Rose and about how baseball is dying and how it can save itself by reinstating Pete Rose, whom he plans to pardon. And as usual with Donald Trump's statements, it is very difficult to parse what he means and what he is thinking and pardon him for what. Are we talking about how he pled guilty to tax evasion? Or are we talking about pardoning him in baseball?

Because I know we're dealing with all sorts of presidential power grabs and overreaches here, but I don't believe that executive orders apply to the MLB ineligible lists. But of course, there was subsequently a report that Rob Manfred is considering a petition to reinstate Pete Rose, which was lodged at the behest of Pete Rose's daughter last year, evidently. So this was leaked after Trump's truth and presumably in response to it. And I don't know whether it's just that reporters started sniffing around and found out,

yes, Manfred has been considering this, or whether it was an intentional leak by MLB to mollify Trump to say that, yes, we are considering this. And if it's the latter, then is it serious, or is it just, let's placate him because he will forget about this and move on to something else soon? I don't know. It wouldn't shock me if Rob Manfred and other baseball owners wanted to fall in line and please Donald Trump as many other corporations seem to be doing these days. But we've talked at length about Pete Rose. We talked about him. I

wrote about him when he died last year. And we certainly are fully fine with Pete Rose. We talked about him. I wrote about him when he died last year. And we certainly are fully fine with Pete Rose remaining on the ineligible list. We are not advocating that he be reinstated. He did many bad things on and off the field. He did the worst thing that one can do in a baseball context. And he can continue to pay the price for that even posthumously. So we see no reason to reinstate Rose and we see no real reason to re-litigate it at length unless and until there is an actual development on that front. So we will take a quick break now and we will be back with Matt Gelb to talk about the Phillies followed by Zach Meisel to talk about the Cleveland Guardians.

Well, it's moments like these that make you ask, how can you not be pedantic about baseball? If baseball were different, how different would it be? On the case with light ripping, all analytically, cross-check and compile Find a new understanding, not effectively Why, how can you not be pedantic? Yes, when it comes to baseball, how can you not be pedantic? Alright, let's talk about the Philadelphia Phillies. We are once again joined by Matt Gelb, who is a senior writer for the athletic covering the Phillies. Thus it is appropriate that he is here for this segment. Hello Matt.

Thank you for having me yet again. We are very happy to. I'm also happy to hear that Bryce Harper was not seriously injured by his recent hit by pitch. He has a bruised triceps, but nothing more. But I think the most pressing question facing the Phillies and Phillies fandom, so let's just get it out of the way up top here, is should we be concerned about Bryce Harper's raw milk consumption?

I'm very concerned. I'm so concerned. Should we be concerned about his TikTok fascination? I mean, he really truly has become, I mean, I got to ask a major league superstar this spring, Tik Tok called you cause he said that, you know, I was doing so many videos and he's like, and somebody from the company, you know, reached out to me about, you know, kind of increasing his exposure. And so that's a first I got to ask a star player about Tik Tok.

That was a serious question about the milk by the way. Yeah, we actually are quite concerned about this. Pete Slauson I know that he was ill in spring training, but that was probably unrelated to the raw milk, one would hope. Jared Slauson I believe it was unrelated to the raw milk. Kirsten Kiehl Okay. Pete Slauson So, it doesn't sound like you're seriously concerned about this, doesn't sound like the Phillies are concerned.

Jared Slauson He's very passionate about what he eats. And to the point where he has his own food, you know, they have, they have a chef and they have other chefs who, you know, obviously cook for the team. And this has become something that has certainly one of the things that's changed in Major League Baseball since I started covering it 15 years ago, but the rise of the quality of food that players get, but Harper takes it to a different level. I mean, he brings his own ingredients

and he's got his own little thing going on. Milk's the cow himself, just puts his mouth to the teat and squirts. Okay, wow. That's how it works. He actually, he did influence me. Now that he is an influencer, I was watching some of his videos just sort of through my fingers,

just not really wanting to watch what was happening there. But he did get me to start drinking some hydrogen water, which I'm 90% sure is snake oil, but I think not harmful snake oil. There's some studies out there that say it might help and nothing that says it will hurt as opposed to the raw milk. So I figured, eh, what the heck? And I got this little thing that, A, hydrogen and water probably

doesn't do anything. It might, but probably nothing significant. But also I'm pretty sure the thing I bought doesn't actually hydrogenate the water all that much. It probably just has bubbles and lights, but my daughter likes looking at it. You press a button, all the things light up and it's got some bubbles and it's like a lava lamp sort of situation. So is it helping my health? Probably not, but first do no harm. So that's all we want with Harper. We want him to do no harm because he's a great player and the Phillies depend on him and he now has a Phillies fanatic tattoo. So it's really important that he stay healthy. You're really going over, I mean this is what qualifies as excitement for the Phillies this spring is because... It was sort of a slow off season, yeah.

It's funny because like, you know, the Eagles won the Super Bowl and Phillies are coming off their best regular season in 13 years and obviously did not end the way they wanted it to or their fans wanted it to and there's just, I would say, sensing just a lot of, I don't know, non-excitement about this Phillies team. No, it's true. And yeah, the make America healthy again, aspects of Harper's off season training, kind of concerning. But I think this is why we led with that.

We'll get to Jesus Lizardo and others, but you know, most pressing issues first. And it was by recent Philly standards. there wasn't a big free agent signing. There was a big trade, but lately there's always been something where you think Dombrowski is done and then he digs deep and Middleton ponies up and suddenly there's another big free agent on the Phillies. I guess they just didn't really have the need for that this off season, which speaks well of them.

It's not as if they suddenly cheaped out, right? I mean, did they even pursue someone aggressively they didn't get or was it just sort of a, hey, we're good and we're tinkering around the edges now? I think there were some guys they pursued but more in maybe like the two to three maybe four year range but I think they were mostly looking for you know one year sort of fixes to the edges of their roster. You're right Ben, I mean it's the first time they haven't signed a multi-year free agent contract since Harper came aboard. It's the first offseason Harper's been with the Phillies that they did not add a multi-year free agent. You know you could argue that there were needs, you know, they could have filled an outfield need better than a one-year deal to Max Kepler. They could have filled a bullpen need better than a one-year deal to Jordan Romano.

They decided not to. And obviously those guys are your typical bounce back candidates. We'll see. I mean, maybe they were wise investments, maybe they weren't, but those feel like the two units, if you're looking at it, that probably are the weakest right now on this team. That said, pretty strong roster. AMT – I want to talk about that outfield and that bullpen, but I want to actually ask a substantive baseball question about Brace Harper and not whether he will have some weird IL placements because of his skepticism of pasteurization. This last season was his first full season, healthy season spent at first base.

And I'm curious what you observed of him in terms of his evolution as a defensive first baseman, because I don't think that anyone was concerned that Harper's bat can carry that position. He obviously had a great year at the plate, but how have you seen him sort of evolve and become more comfortable in the field at what is to him a relatively new spot. I think he's really embraced learning the intricacies of that position. Now let's remember he was as a teenager and even in college and he was a catcher, he was younger, he played third base. He really didn't do a lot of outfield until he got into pro ball. And

they're basically like, go play the outfield, just hit, just be Bryce Harbor, be 19 year old Bryce Harbor. And I think he enjoys being on the dirt and specifically he's really enjoyed working with Bobby Dickerson He's a Phillies veteran infield coach who's been around for quite a few years now and has tutored many star players and they just seem to Really get along and Harper likes to be pushed and so, you know it's one thing to be able to play a decent first base and he is athletic enough and nimble enough to play a decent first base without much instruction. But I think what he's really enjoyed is learning the smaller details of the position and we might think it's the easiest position on the field and it is, but that doesn't mean that

there are things for him to learn and things for him to get better at. I saw him improve, I think, as the season went along and he was a Gold Glove finalist there. Like, I think he's gonna win a Gold Glove at first base if he stays there for the next few years. And now that would surprise me. Famously, it's incredibly hard. We know that for a space.

Yeah, when you have to pick it up on the fly as he did. So maybe we can talk about a little bit of the rest of the lineup here, the new additions, but also I guess it's sort of a reflection of the fact that there aren't that many new faces here that it seems like one of the big storylines has been who be batting leadoff, which has been a bit of a storyline about the Phillies for a few years now because they have an atypical unorthodox leadoff batter in College Warburg. Are there serious considerations of moving him? Does it matter? And is this actually one of the more significant questions facing the Phillies in camp?

Jared Sussman I guess I'll answer those in reverse order. Is this one of the most significant issues? Yes. Does it matter? No. Uh, are they going to make a change? Yeah, I think they will. I mean, I think Trey Turner will badly it off and I get it. I actually think the reasoning behind it is less about lineup optimization and more about unlocking something in Trey Turner and I will buy it. I will buy it for now. Um, I think that they're wanting Trey Turner to maybe adopt a little bit of a different

approach and stop being so pole happy at times. And once he started to get super pole happy, especially in the last two months last year, we saw the rise in breaking balls and obviously pitches that he saw was insane. I mean, he really stopped seeing fastballs. I think he was down to like, at one point, like 35, 40% fastballs over a large swath of games in the last two months of the season. So teams knew how to get Trey Turner out and they were attacking him that way. A lot of bringing balls down the way and he's trying to pull him. It wasn't going to work.

So maybe if he tries to go the other way on a couple of his pitches, he sees more fastballs, just thinks about getting on base and being a run creator. We saw Turner last year at times, I think, be a little reserved. He missed six weeks with a hamstring injury, came back, wasn't necessarily himself on the bases. I think he was tentative and holding back a little bit for fear of re-injury. And you know, totally get that. He's a guy whose game is reliant on his legs and you suffer a leg injury and you know,

you might be a little hesitant. But I think they're hoping that putting him at the top, he sort of reinvigorates that is reliant on his legs and you suffer a leg injury and you know you might be a little hesitant but i think they're hoping that putting him at the top he sort of reinvigorates that dynamic athletic traitor that we've all come to know over the years try to lead the league in runs steal a few more bags i don't think they're looking for him to steal 60 bags i know that he's not um maybe 40 bags and we know he can do it if he wanted to steal 60 bags or more he could do it. I don't think he wants to do it and I get it. It's preservation. But leading the league in runs like that's something he's talked about a lot. It's something Philly's people have talked about. It's like have that goal in your mind. Like be a guy who gets on in front of these sluggers and maybe it helps the lineup. Maybe not. Maybe Kyle Shorter by June is batting lead off again. You mentioned bringing in Kepler. I guess this is a good time for us to talk about that outfield. First, what they saw in him that might make them have confidence that he will bounce back at least at the plate and then sort of how this unit fits together defensively

because I think we've talked to you on several of these preview pods over the years about how this is a lineup that feels heavy on designated hitters playing out of position It's become a little less true over time and they actually graded out fairly well defensively But I think we have Marsh slated to be the opening day center fielder is Rojas still banged up I know he had an injury in the winter league and then what are they expecting out of Castellanos this year? That's like seven questions. So take them in whatever order makes you happy. Yes, Marsh will be the center fielder. Even if Rojas is healthy by opening day, Marsh is the guy, I think.

The thing that sticks out to me about the lineup is it's very lefty heavy. I mean, just so lefty heavy. And that's why the Max Kepler thing was just so, I don't want to say confusing, but surprising. It just didn't seem like the right fit. That's not to say that Kepler can't be a productive left fielder for them. I just it was a little bit of an odd fit and Rob Thompson likes to make up his lineups where he goes left right left right all the way down. He won't be able to do that. I think one of the bigger questions would be is he going to bat Harper and Schwabre back to back at the top.

They both had great years against lefties last year. Schwabre back to back at the top. They both had great years against lefties last year. Schwabre specifically hit 300 against lefties and made some real approach adjustments that you can say, okay, maybe this wasn't the fluke. Castellanos, I don't know. He's their only right-handed hitting outfielder. He is an important righty bat in this lineup. Him and Alec Bohehm are going to have to be right-handed producers for them in the middle of the order. Casting animals after April last year was pretty good. Like he was one of the better hitting outfielders in the National League. It was really bad in April though and I just predicting him year to year I feel like I probably

said this last year like I have no idea. I mean I don't know how you predict him. I think what they need from him is volume. Like he played 162 games last year. It was something he wanted to do. It wasn't necessarily something that they needed him to do, but I think over time they realized, okay, this helps us because it just allows us to know who one guy out there and we can find, you know, tink around with his outfield. And let's say this, I mean, the say this, their outfield could be bad. This is not defensively, but offensively too.

They're taking a lot of leaps of faith here. Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler were both treated as platoon guys last year. Marsh by the Phillies, Kepler by the Twins. Everybody around the Phillies is tired about talking about, hey, is this the year that Brandon Marsh becomes an everyday guy and gets production and at bats against lefties? Maybe. I know that they don't really have any right handed hitting outfielders behind them. Rojas is a defense first guy. I think he'll be on the team. He'll probably get one or two starts a week, at least early on. Then, you know, maybe come Memorial Day, are they platooning one of Marsh or Kepler? Are they platooning both? That would be a big problem if they are. So Castellanos is important in that they just need his right-handed bat to be steady in the middle of this lineup. I think you may have reported that the Phillies were interested in an extension of Kyle Schorber, that maybe there was mutual interest there. It has also been reported that JT Realmudo and the Phillies have mutual interest in an extension, which sort of surprised

me given the circumstances. He's turning 34 later this month. He defensively has declined steeply, seemingly, at least in terms of his receiving skills. And offensively, he's still an above average big league hitter, which makes him a well above average catcher, but he's not the offensive star that he once was. So why is there mutual interest in an extension if in fact there is with Real Muto entering his walk year? There is, there are some caveats to that. The biggest reason, Ben, is that they have no one else. That's a good reason. You know, I mean, beyond this year, catching is the thinnest position in the organization, especially in the upper minors.

They have a younger catcher named Eduardo Taite, who I believe is 18 years old now. You know, we'll get a full year probably in the Florida State League this year. They like him a lot. Evaluators who have seen him from other teams like him, aren't sure if he'll stay behind the plate. He's a little bit of a bigger guy, but he's years away. And in the upper minors, they really have no one. So I do think that they are interested in a reunion with Real Muto.

I don't think it's on the front burner right now. I think this is something that they could revisit maybe halfway through the year if Real Muto is playing well and he's healthy. It's also something that they could just take to free agency. It's not to say that they could lose him if he goes to free agency, but I do think that they would still have a significant advantage. Even if he has a great, great season, they were still having a significant advantage in resigning him if he had a bigger market just because he really likes the Phillies. His family, they bought a house in Clearwater Beach, which is right near where the Phillies train in Clearwater Beach, near where the Phillies train. That said, I don't think it's wise to pursue the extension now, and I don't think they are, because what happens if you tack on two years to this 34-year-old catcher and all of a sudden he gets hurt in the middle of the season, and now that contract

extension you signed in spring training looks a little silly. So I think this is one that they are interested in pursuing but willing to wait on, and I think that makes a lot of sense. It's really a tale of two halves for Alec Bohm last year, who was an all-star in the first half, was very productive at the plate, seemed like he had really turned the corner defensively. And then the second half was pretty underwhelming. He had a 90 WRC plus in the second half. So what do you attribute sort of that swoon to and what version of him do

you think we're going to get this year, both at the plate and also as a third base defender? Just didn't make good enough contact later in the year. He's a very different guy. I mean, in the first six weeks of the season, I mean, he really carried them. I mean, his numbers, his running production, his numbers with runners and scoring position, and, you know, we're just off the charts in April and May and obviously it wasn't sustainable, but even just part of that would have been helpful down the stretch. He had a hand injury near the end of the year that at the time the Phillies said wasn't serious, didn't think it was a factor. He got benched in Game 2 of the NLDS, and Rob Thompson was given numerous chances to say it was because his hand wasn't feeling well. He said, no, he just didn't like his energy, we needed different energy.

And now, after the fact, after a very odd offseason in which the Phillies, no matter what they say, were actively shopping Boehm and looking for places to trade him because they thought he was their best shot at getting a decent return off of their Major League roster, didn't find a match. Here he is, still here, a guy who has been through quite a bit in this organization. I mean, you know, some of those failures and some of those moments were very public. You know, the three hour game, I hate this place, all that stuff. That said, we've seen what this guy can be and they feel like there's still a little more in there.

He's hard on himself, right? I mean, he has had problems. Like once he gets into slumps, it's hard for him to pull out of it. And he is very hard on himself. And I think that was some of that negative energy that they were disappointed in in the second half. I don't know how you fix that. I mean, I know Boam has worked really hard at trying to be, in baseball terms, more even-keeled, it in. This is a guy who's got two years of club control left. They have a really good left side of the infield prospect, Aidan Miller, who they love.

He's 20 years old, got a taste of big league camp this year. He's coming and coming fast. Probably not this year, but probably next year. And so where does Bollem fit in this whole thing moving forward? Unclear. Probably only has these this year or next year left with the Phillies. And so he's aware of the situation, but I also think that he knows that he can take control of his career with an even better season. And he has improved every year. It's just, I think people have been hoping for bigger improvements, especially

after what we saw in the first two months. This is an aging team. I guess technically that's true of everyone who is alive in every team, but some teams get younger players and the Phillies mostly have not. And so they have kept the same players who are older than they used to be because that's how time works. So is there any way that there will be an injection of youth into this roster at some point this season and not talking about some sort of alternative treatment we might see on Bryce Harper's TikTok? I'm talking about promoting prospects. And this applies to the pitching staff too, but since we're talking about the lineup right now, Justin Crawford, Aiden Miller,

are there opportunities for young guys to come up at some point this season? Possibly, but I see those guys more as 2026 contributors. I think the infusion of youth is coming from the pitching side and that's Andrew Painter. He turns 22 in April and I mean he checks every box. I feel like maybe Phillies fans are tired of hearing about it I guess because it's been two years really since that spring where he was 19 and he was going to make the team.

He was going to make the team. He was going to be their fifth starter and he suffered an elbow injury that spring, did not pitch competitively for the last two seasons, got into the Arizona Fall League at the end of last year. And I mean, he's their best pitching prospect since Cole Hamels. He's their best right-handed pitching prospect since I don't know. He is legit and they have held him out of games this spring. Maybe that's, you know, lowered the hype as well is because he he's not pitching right now competitively. He's been throwing bullpens.

He's healthy. He's fine. They're trying to keep as many innings for him as they can. They envisioned him coming up sometime around July and being a part of the rotation and pitching in the playoffs for them. He's as good as it gets right now in terms of right-handed pitching prospects in the sport. I think that Phillies fans who are not excited about Painter or have some amount of prospect

fatigue should go like watch our video of him from the fall league because he looked really good in Arizona. He checks every box. Yeah, I mean, he- It's incredible. Yeah. It's really good. Yeah.

Yeah. When the first fastball hummed in there at like 97, I was like, okay, this is going to be fine. I think he's going to be okay. Maybe we can talk about the rest of the pitching staff because as we've noted, the big addition that the team made this offseason didn't come in the form of signing, but in trade. What did the Phillies like about Jesus Lazardo and why did they prioritize a starter in trade since they already had one heck of a rotation? It's a good question, Meg.

I think I was at the beginning of the offseason when Dave Dabrowski was mentioning possibly acquiring another starter. I kind of, I wouldn't say I rolled my eyes at it, but I had a heavy dose of skepticism with that. But they went after Lizardo simply because they believe that they were buying low on this guy. And the cost wasn't insignificant. They traded one of their better teenage prospects, Starlin Kaba, shortstop, who's years away but fits the Marlins model

very well. Good prospect. Lizardo was hurt for most of last year. He's had injury problems in his past, but two years ago was an ascendant mid-rotation lefty. And I think they had done some work on him and believed once they saw more of the medicals that he was going to be okay. Last year was back. It was at first an elbow thing, but really was caused by lower back issues that ended up having Los Ardo season last year.

And he looks healthy. He touched 98 his first spring outing. His final fastball that he threw last season in June I believe it was, was 92 miles an hour. And like you watch the video of it and he's just like, looks like he's exerting a lot of effort just to get the ball to the plate. And the guy that we saw at the beginning of camp, not that, very different. They've really never had a lefty starter who throws as hard as Jesus Lazardo does. He slots as like their number five guy, which is kind of crazy. I think that was their way of dealing with some uncertainty

in the back of the rotation. They know that Painter is coming. They know though that he's not got a full season's worth of innings. They also know that Lazardo might not be good for 30 stars this year given his past. And they also know that Ranger Suarez, who was arguably the best pitcher in baseball for the first two months last year, hasn't had a great history of being durable, has had some dips in performances as he goes deeper into seasons. And so they're saying, okay, well, what if we can manage all three of those guys? Suarez, Lazardo, Painter, and we can get two starting slots combined out of those three guys. And it's not the worst idea. I think that's kind of their strategy going into the season. If we can get 140 great innings from Suarez instead of 180 okay innings, that's a trade that they're willing to make.

And that was part of the reason why they acquired Luzardo. It also helps them for next year in that Suarez is going to be a free agent. He probably walks. And now you've got your, if healthy, your 2026 rotation with Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez, Lizardo, and Painter. Didn't even caught talking about Christopher Sanchez, who might honestly, he's the second best pitcher on this staff. But I mean, it's like, kind of seems like his ascension is limitless at this point. Katie Grant Did I see that his fastball velocity was up like two ticks in his first spring start? Yeah.

Touch 99, like, and like has added weight and this guy, I don't know, he throws one of the best, if not the best changeups in baseball. I just, his transformation is remarkable. Even if they get the guy, the guy last year, it was like a, you know, 3.3 and 180 something innings, they'll take it. That was pretty good. He was an all-star. He might be even better, I'm not sure. It's, I don't know, his transformation is wild.

Yeah, if there's any team that could stomach some unreliability at the back of the rotation, it would probably be the Phillies because they have just had the most reliable front of the rotation for years now. Just Wheeler, Nola, never missing a start. And I don't know that that's something you can count on indefinitely, but the Phillies did have the second best pitcher war according to Fangraphs last year.

They're projected to have the second best pitcher war again, second only to the Dodgers and that's partly a function of the bullpen, which we haven't even gotten to yet, but is there anything that Nola and Wheeler do that they have pinpointed or that the Phillies have pinpointed that has enabled them to be so consistent and so durable? Is it anything about approach or training or is it purely luck of the draw and you just have to hope that as they get deeper into their thirties, that continues somehow. There's certainly stuff to training and approach. Zach Wheeler eats like a child and he takes pride in this.

He loves junk food. He loves McDonald's. He loves chicken nuggets. Philly's diets just really run the gamut. They really do. So I'm glad we got a full circle on this because yes, like there's such a dynamic in that room where Bryce Harper is obsessed with sourcing the ingredients for his meals. And Zach Wheeler just loves fast food. He loves junk food. And like, I don't get it. I don't understand. He is one of the best pitchers in baseball, he's become more durable and better with age. You ask people about it and they just kind of laugh. He obviously puts in the work, but you hear guys talk about how he eats, you hear them

talk about how he is in the advanced meetings, where JT Rilmuto and Caleb Cotham and other coaches might be going over the scouting report and the game plan, and they've joked at times that it seems like Wheeler might be asleep during those meetings. So, he's amazing. I don't think it's luck. I do think there's something to it, especially with Nola too. Nola has worked really hard to figure out the right amount of throwing between starts, the right amount of work, because he is a guy who earlier in his career would work,

work, work, work, work. I think he has peeled off some of that as he's gotten older. The guys that are on mornings and any other pitcher in baseball since 2017, and yes, there are times where he's maddening and frustrating. His durability though cannot be argued with. And you're right Ben, I mean like at some point that's going to change. I mean, it's just that is just pitching and the human body and You know something will happen to one of these guys. They're just hoping that it's not this year or that they have enough coverage I'm not so sure they have any coverage to make up for a loss of Wheeler if it's for an extended period

He is still the ace of aces. I think This guy just decides to throw a splitter, right? And all of a sudden it becomes a real weapon against lefties his numbers against lefties get You know incredibly, you know Remarkably better last season in any other year that Chris sale is not in the National League Jack Wheeler wins a Cy Young and you look at his numbers and say yeah deserving Cy Young they are remarkable I think Wheeler and all have both figured out what works for them the routines and some of it is Not to be explained, I guess.

Hosted by Katie, we'll turn to the bullpen now because as you noted, they did some things. They brought in Jordan Romano, they brought in Joe Ross, but this was a group that really kind of rose and fall with Jose Alvarado's fortunes last year, which were not as good as they had been in prior seasons. So Talk to us about how they're planning on fitting this group together. Do they have a set closer and are there any guys here who you think might surprise us as the season goes on? Jared Sussman No set closer probably. I mean, that's how Rob Thompson has run it really since he took over as manager in the

middle of the 2022 season. I think Jordan Romano could ascend to that role. He'll probably get a lot of the ninth-hitting shots to begin the season. in the sport. Not really known as an efficient 9th inning guy but that's gonna be something that Phillies fans I think are gonna learn quickly. He takes a lot of pitches, he's gonna put some guys on base so I think he will get some of the shots but Ryan Kirkering is a guy who I think has a lot of upside potential here. You know it feels like he's been around longer than he has but he really hasn't. Last year was his first full season in the major leagues. Of course he came up late in 2023 and pitched in the playoffs for the

Phillies that year, but a lot of underlying measurements point to him really having even more in there. I think he's going to throw a sinker a little more this year which should help get some teams off of the sweeping slider which I think is a great pitch but was hit at times last year. And Meg, yeah, you correctly identified here that Jose Alvarado is once again the wild card. And this is a guy who in 2022 was unbelievable for them after getting demoted to the minors, was a huge reason why they went to the World Series in 2022. Some of those playoff innings he had. And last year, his strikeout rate had, I believe, and I'm currently working on a story about this for the athletic, he had the second largest dip in

year to year strikeout rate and When you look at this guy you're like how right? I mean the quality of stuff at some of the best left-handed stuff from a left-handed reliever in the sport And it wasn't that he was walking more guys last year because he wasn't his walk rate was about the same He was just wasn't missing as many bass as he had in the past And so I think what we've seen so far to spring is really interesting Obviously, he's throwing a little harder, which is the first thing you notice The second thing is like he decided he's just like I'm gonna start throwing my curveball again

And I'm also gonna throw a four-seam fastball too And I wonder if like the days of the two-pitch Reliever are pretty much gone I know that they've been sort of fading away as we've gotten into the pitch design and pitch shape eras I guess, but in the past like you could have a very successful two pitch reliever especially if those two pitches were really good and Alvarado's two were really good. 100 mile an hour fastball and a 95 mile an hour cutter. He's I think come to realize that Tidders have made enough adjustments on him that he has to adjust and even if he just has a third pitch

that he's gonna show you know maybe 10-15% of the time, just to keep it in his head, the idea is that it could make those two other pitches better. So I applaud him for trying to think differently about this. I know the Phillies have suggested to him in the past, and guys are stubborn about change, and I understand that. You're successful one way, you don't want to change. Like what I see so far, I think the mentality is better. I think the strategy is better, but we'll see. I mean, Alvarado, relievers are hard to predict.

Alvarado is especially hard. Has the buzz about Tywin Walker in camp been more about pumping him up as a trade candidate or a legitimate contributor to this staff this season? Both. I mean, I think I've been hesitant right right, until I saw it in game. I wanted to see what does it look like. I mean, Erling Camp, they're pumping them up, hyping up. I'm like, okay, I kind of get this. He's got two years, 32 million left on his contract, bordering on a sunk cost. I mean, I think last September they could have released him and no one would have argued, right? It's a sunk cost.

Then we saw him in the game and the underlying metrics showed a pitcher that he threw better in his first spring game this year than he did at any point last season. He sat 93, touched 94, the splitter had velocity, it had life, he got 4 outs on it, one of them a strikeout, he was getting swings and misses in the zone on his fastball, like all these things that were not happening last year, and it looked like the guy from two years ago who was a fine back of the rotation starter and those don't exactly grow on trees these days. So I don't know. I'm not sure what to think about Tywin Walker so far.

I think that makes him one of the more intriguing guys in a camp that is full of guys who have roster spots and we know who they are. I think the question is going to be do you keep them now? Maybe there's a team that comes in at the end of the spring and says, hey, we'll give you a lottery ticket A-baller for Walker if you eat most of the money. At that point, do the Phillies just keep them as a long reliever and slide them in the rotation if they suffer an injury? They also have Joe Ross who they signed for a one-year, $4 million deal, who they envisioned as sort of a swingman type. Ross did that last year for the Milwaukee

Brewers, and he did it well. They have some rotation depth there. They have painter coming, obviously, in the summer, so maybe they do move on from Walker, or maybe they keep him. I will say that I'm intrigued after what I saw in the first spring outing, not even about the results, just about the underlying stuff. It was fine. It was way better than it was last year, that's for sure. HOFFMAN When Dave Dabrowski arrived hot off the heels of his time in Boston, his rep, early in his time in Philly, was, he's going for it. He's here to cash in quickly. He's here to win the World Series. He will trade any prospect capital to make that happen. And he certainly did do that in Boston and to some extent in Philly,

but he's clearly here for the long haul and it seems as if he has cultivated some strength in that system. It's not one of the top ranked farm systems, but it's not near the bottom either. And maybe it's sort of a top heavy system, but point is he has not dealt away all of their blue chippers. He's held on to some of them and perhaps cultivated some of them. So has his mindset change,

has the perception of how he operates and what the purpose of the Phillies farm system is? Have those things changed and evolved during his tenure? I think a little bit, Ben. I mean, it's not to say that he hasn't been willing to entertain big ideas. They were very much in on Garrett Crochet last July, and they were willing to trade quite a few prospects for him as some of my reporting uncovered, I guess, like this off season. But Andrew Painter was a guy that they just like weren't going to trade. And that was a no, a hard no the entire time. And the White Sox, it turns out, weren't going to do a deal with the Phillies unless Boehner

was in it. And that was a non-starter for Dave Dabrowski. Would that have been different 10 years ago? 5 years ago? I don't know. Maybe? I guess it's interesting because Dabrowski is nearing the end of his career. He's mid-60s.

There was a point where he had decided to walk away from teams. Remember, he was involved with the Nashville expansion project. He still has a home that he resides in the offseason in Nashville. And so, you know, the Phillies really almost, I would say, begged, but really had to convince him to come run their franchise. And I think he is taking a, I don't want to say conservative, but just a more balanced approach with how he's run this organization. They've spent obviously an

insane amount of money since Dombrowski took over. I think though that they've been more calculated with how they've handled their prospects and they have traded guys right I mean they traded Logan Ohapi, they've traded Ben Brown, they trade Haoyu Li, these are three guys you know Ohapi in his case who's already an established Major League regular but they have traded guys. People were appalled at the two pitchers they traded last July for two months of Carlos Estevez, which may look like a bad trade in a couple years. That was a go-forward move. So he has been aggressive in trading those mid-level type prospects, you know, like your five to 10 ranked prospects. But the guys at the top, like he has, he's really held firm in not moving those guys.

And I think that's also a byproduct of the roster he's inherited and has right now, as you alluded to, older team, older roster. Some guys are going to be coming off the books in the next few years. And I think the idea is that they do, they replace from the outside make no mistake just because they were inactive in free agency or relatively inactive in free agency this off season doesn't mean they won't be active next off season I think they will but I also think that they know they need some replacements to come from internal sources and they've done a good job I think building up the system still not great I think it's good. Not great.

It is very top heavy as you alluded to. Um, but that's because Dabrowski is telling on to those guys. And the end of his time in Philadelphia doesn't appear to be imminent. They did extend him through 2027, but when it comes to forecasting a successor, there was a bit of a shakeup, I suppose. Maybe shakeup is more dramatic than it was, but back in November, Sam Fold shifted from the baseball operations side of things to the business side of things.

And he's in line to become the president of business operations, the other type of Pobo, next May, 2026, when he finishes getting his MBA at Wharton, very fancy. And he's going to be a GM until then. So that's sort of interesting. Preston Mattingly was also promoted to GM. So- They have two GMs. Two GMs. Yeah. So we're, we're used to the GM plus pobo and we're used to the plenty of assistant GMs. I don't know if this seems like a new wrinkle though,

multiple GMs. I want them to be povos though, cause then they can be cobos. You know, we gotta keep our variations of the pobo. Cobo, cobo, pro, pro, po, po, po bros. I'll try to explain this as the best as I understand it. Please do. Before the Phillies hired Dave Dombrowski,

their traditional organizational hierarchy was that they had a team president who was in charge of both, oversaw both the baseball and the business side. For years and years, that was David Montgomery. And Dombrowski was the first time they hired somebody to run the baseball side who wanted nothing to do with the business side. I think they'd like to go back to that sort of nothing to do with the business side. I think they'd like to go back to that sort of structure where they had a team president. I know recently

the Minnesota Twins just promoted Derek Falvey to team president. I think you'll see Sam Fold eventually assume that sort of role. He is still involved in the baseball side of things, just less so. He's taking classes at Penn right now. I think though that the expectation is whenever Dave Dabrowski does step aside, and he's signed right now I believe through 2027, and Fold would take over as team president, Preston Mattingly would either be GM or president of baseball, whatever the titles are. But I think the hierarchy would still be Fold and Mattingly. They promoted Mattingly because they like him and other teams liked him. And in this era of title inflation, the best way to keep

somebody is to just give them a new title. And it is an unusual arrangement, no doubt, but I think that's where this is headed, I think. Hosted by this offseason mostly borne by having a good set roster. I don't know if you know this, but one of the teams in their division signed Juan Soto and obviously Atlanta's getting a bunch of injured guys back and you know, the Nationals and the Marlins are what they are. But how do they sort of see themselves positioned competitively versus Atlanta and New York? I think they love where they stand pitching wise. I think they look at the other two teams in division. They see teams that are fairly Three teams that are closely matched evenly matched and I think the Phillies like where they stand pitching wise and I don't disagree with that

I think they have a deeper rotation I think if you look at the three bullpens like even if you have questions about the Phillies bullpen like I don't know I mean, I kind of think it might be even if you have questions about the Phillies bullpen, like, I don't know. I mean, I kind of think it might be number one or number two out of those three teams. And so no doubt Atlanta has got both teams have probably have better lineups. Atlanta has a better lineup for sure. Once Acuna is back. I don't know. I mean, like I look at this division and I think it's gonna be a lot of fun. I mean, these are three teams that have be a lot of fun. I could see any one of these three teams winning the division.

Nothing would surprise me there. I guess I get why the Braves, right now if you look at the current odds, Braves are favored to win the division, not by a lot. I get it. I think obviously Okunin and Strider are huge, huge returns for the Braves. I think depth-wise though, like I kind of wonder. So I think it's pretty close. Well, I guess that sets up our final question, which is what would constitute success?

Do you hate it more or less than a wind total prediction? It's one or the other, but what would constitute a successful season for the Phillies? I mean, I guess we're kind of up to the teams now where it's everyone wants to win a World Series, but is there any other metric they should judge their progress by this year?

I hate that they go into the season with World Series or bus because it's just not how we should be watching or enjoying baseball. Right. It's just not because there's only one team that wins it. And is it a successful season if they win the National League pennant and lose in the World Series again? I don't know. Like, I think it would be. But I also understand people would be shouting at me saying, are you insane? so I guess it's Win the World Series and I say that so reluctantly because I I think they can do it I think they have the talent to do it. I think they have the right people in place to do it

I just I don't know only one team does it and You could argue that last year was the best team that they had in this little stretch here. And they went out in the LDS. The worst team that they had during the stretch to 2022 Phillies, they were up two games to one on the Astros in the World Series. So I, I don't know. I don't know. I guess it's when the World Series. All right. Sorry. Sorry. We made you say that, but I think it's probably true or probably how a lot of people are thinking about it. So we will find out if they achieve that goal or more moderate goals.

And we will also find out whether milk was a bad choice. Thank you very much, Matt. As always, we will read your coverage at the Athletic. I appreciate that this whole segment was just a setup for that final joke. Okay, let's take one more quick break and we'll be back with Zach Meisel to discuss the Cleveland Guardians. Romantic, pathetic, and hypothetical. Semantic and frantic, real or theoretical.

They give you the stats and they give you the news. Into baseball's podcast you should choose. Effectively wild is here for you. About all the weird stuff that's they give you the news. It's a baseball podcast you should choose. Effectively Wild is here for you about all the weird stuff that players do. Authentically strange and objectively styled. Let's play ball. It's effectively wild. It's effectively wild. It's effectively wild. Well, we're getting to our Guardians preview a little later than planned,

but we've booked the best guest, the National Sports Media Association's reigning Ohio Sportswriter of the Year. Senior writer for the athletic covering the Cleveland Guardians, Zach Meisel is here. Hello, Zach. How are we doing today? Congrats on being Ohio sports writer of the year, a little belatedly, but still.

Thank you. It's whatever child dreams of. It's cool. I appreciate that. So before we get to the team, there's been a death in the family, the Dolan family specifically. Maybe we can talk just for a moment about the legacy of Larry Dolan who died at 94. I assume that this probably will not affect the day-to-day running of the Guardians as he hasn't been the point person for some time. But what is his legacy both in life and as owner of the Guardians.

Perhaps more of a complicated one in Cleveland than it should be. Time will be kind to this era, but in the moment, I think it's a little difficult for some Clevelanders because the Dolans took over in 2000 toward the tail end of probably the greatest run in the history of a franchise that was a charter member of the American League in 1901. So just by contrasting to the Jacobs

ownership, which you had these powerhouse teams year after year and they didn't win the title, but comparatively for 40 years before that, this team was a doormat to the extent that they made a movie poking fun at just how terrible they were. So I think they'll always be living in the Jacob's shadow a little bit, but if you do look back and they're the longest tenured owners in franchise history, more often than not, they've got a pretty good team that has a decent chance of making the playoffs. So they're just missing that one thing, and that's the one thing that every owner who's owned this team since 1948 has been missing too. And that's a World Series title. It's tricky, you know? They're certainly the envy of a lot of franchises in terms of they don't spend much, and that's the one thing many fans here can't get over, understandably,

but they are consistently competitive, and they've got good stability. The Dolans have been known to not meddle and let smart people do smart things, so it's a little complicated. And no, the day-to-day won't be affected yet, but there is a deal in place with the current minority owner,

David Blitzer, to eventually take over. And, you know, I don't know that those conversations have accelerated in the aftermath here, but certainly something to monitor as we move forward just if that timeline will move up. Yeah, I guess if you're grading all the Dolans on a curve, Larry, was one of the least disliked at least. Nicole Zichal One of the better Dolans. But we can see some of the spirit of the Dolans and some of the moves that the Guardians make. And I think we can point to a couple that they made this off season and say they might embody the penny pinching ways of their

ownership group. I hesitate to start on subtractions, but I think we kind of have to. There are a couple of guys who will not be donning Cleveland Guardians uniforms this coming season, and that includes Andres Jimenez, who was dealt with Blue Jays, Josh Naylor, who is now going to be a Diamondback. They sent away international bonus pool space so that they could dump Miles Shaw. So talk to us about some of the subtractions that they made and what they hope to get in the additions that came back from those subtractions. So if you, I don't know, if you were in a coma in 2024 and you didn't know anything about the Guardian season

and you just looked at their off season moves, you'd say, okay, this is probably, I'm guessing this is a rebuilding team maybe that's a year or two away from, you know, they've got a pretty healthy farm system and some of these kids will come up and it'll all come together in maybe 2027. And that's what they're aiming for.

So they got Andres Jimenez's future money off the books They didn't want to lose Josh Naylor for nothing. So they got a little bit for him like this makes sense and then You were never in a coma and you realize wait this team made the ALCS I understand some of the motivations but if you're gonna do certain things you would have hoped you would have done other things and That just didn't happen. It's like they spent $12 million on Carlos Santana, who is gonna be 39 years old the day of their home opener.

So it's odd. They signed Paul Seewald. Certain moves in a vacuum might make sense, but these moves altogether, bringing back Austin Hedges for $4 million, they gave Jacob Junis $4.5 million. Individually, these moves are okay and you could talk yourself into understanding parting with Naylor and parting with Jimenez, but the sum of everything this winter is really confusing and really strange.

I have had a lot of trouble. It's what I think about every morning and every night before I go to sleep. And I still haven't quite figured it out. And it's been months of this. So just strange is the one word I could use to describe it all. Thinking about the guardians when you wake up

and before you go to sleep, that's what makes you the Ohio sports writer of the year. It's not healthy. Two time, by the way. Two times. Sorry, I would not. Yeah. I mean, we're, we're being quippy, but that is exciting.

I wanted to ask about Santana because, you know, like Carlos Santana had a really interesting recent couple of seasons, obviously a down 2023. He was very good for the twins last year. We got to see that good first base defense comeback. He hit for 23 home runs, a 114 WRC plus. Does he just really love the Midwest, first of all? And second of all, you noted his age, but what are they really expecting from him this year? He lives in Kansas, and that's where he had, like, the most miserable stretch of his career. He talks about just how poorly he played,

and he did not enjoy it, but that's where his family planted their roots. So it's, you might be on to something here. He definitely loves Cleveland. He's comfortable with the organization, and they called him and offered him $12 million, and so I would just, you know, if that happened to me, I'd move anywhere.

So it's weird. I mean, he's in good shape. He's a guy who's been so durable for so long. So part of me says, well, I need to, he's 39 years old. Like I gotta temper my expectations here. And then part of me says, until I see this guy miss, you know, spend three stints on the injured list with a bulky back or a pulled hamstring or something,

I just have to assume that he's gonna stay healthy and well-conditioned. I don't, he's just been that way for so long. The tough thing is the fit. You know, it's great. You have a gold glover at first base now because you're gonna have worse defense at second base, where you had Andres Jimenez the last few years.

So that'll help. But offensively, like he had pretty extreme splits last season, and if you're paying $12 million, which is, I don't know, 15% of their payroll, and he's a guy that's the short side of the platoon at a position where you've got Kyle Manzardo, you've got John Kenzie Noelle, you've got David Frye's gonna be limited to a DH role

when he returns from elbow surgery at some point in May or June. I mean, it's a weird fit, and for an offense, a lineup that was already needing some more juice, and then you subtract Josh Naylor, like it's just strange, I keep coming back to that word. So, and it's also, like you are relying on a 39 year old, that cliff can arrive at any moment, and you never know, even for a guy that's super durable.

So, I don't know, I thought he was nearing the finish line like four or five years ago, and thought he was nearing the finish line like four or five years ago, and then he had a couple of all right seasons. So it's just that that doesn't seem like the risk you wanna be banking on coming off the season that they had. And to return to those trades for a second, I guess Santana is making about a million dollars

more than Naylor will be, but was it primarily payroll related, the motivation for either that deal, splitting up the Naylor's or the Jimenez trade, especially because there are only five teams now with a lower payroll than the Guardians. So was it a case of ownership mandate, the number has to be X, and then the front office did its usual gyrations to try to fit under that number? Or were there performance-related reasons why they wanted to move on from those guys? Yeah, they were really scared of Jimenez not improving offensively. I think he's making

10.5 million this season, but that's going to more than double in the future. They didn't want to get caught holding that bag and not being able to move him at that point. Though there's risk involved with everything. There's risk involved in keeping him. There's risk involved in moving him. You knew at the very least he was going to give you elite defense and a guy who could steal a bunch of bases.

We've seen him. He was sixth in the MVP steal a bunch of bases. And we've seen him, I mean, he was sixth in the MVP voting a couple of years ago. Like it's not far fetched that this guy could return to a league average hitter or something close to it and all of a sudden he's extremely valuable, but they didn't want to wait around and find out. So they moved him and it helps that they have Travis Bazana, the number one overall pick last season to hope for in the next year or two, and he can take over that spot. So like that, you could kind of understand that. They also got Luis Ortiz out of it, and we shouldn't ignore that because he could be

a really helpful piece in the rotation. The Naylor thing, they did not want to sign him long term. I think Josh Naylor was not thrilled with that. He also wasn't thrilled with the trade of Aaron Savalli, who was his close friend, for Kyle Manzardo, who was his eventual replacement. I think he could see the writing on the wall. I think it caused some tension. And I think the Guardians just decided it was best to move on and get something for them. They were very concerned about their starting pitching depth.

In 2023, they graduated Gavin Williams, Tanner Bybee, and Logan Allen from their pipeline. There was a huge gap before the next wave of starting pitching. And I think they were nervous about that. It reared its head last season. That's how you end up in the ALCS with Tanner Bybee starting on short rest, Matthew Boyd coming out of nowhere to basically become the team's number two starting pitcher.

They felt like they needed to address that. Moving Nailer was a way to do that. It's just, again, like you can understand the moves independently, but then when you take everything as a whole and you look at the additions they made, you know, you would hope after you make the ALCS and they had, they drew their highest attendance mark in I think 16 years,

that's something to build off of. And I'm not sure that they did that. Well, we've started this pod on a sour note. So let's talk about something that is wonderful, which is Jose Ramirez. I always feel odd asking about incredible veterans because it's like one more do you say about Jose Ramirez, but you have to say stuff about him all the time. And so I will say to you, tell us something about Jose Ramirez because you thought that the guy couldn't get better and then he just, you know, very casually drops like a 140 WRC plus last year remains. I don't think we can say he's underrated anymore.

I think the Jose Ramirez is underrated debate is now settled because he is properly rated and he is rated as fantastic. So tell us about Jose Ramirez. Can I ask you guys a question? Sure. Do you guys know anything about his personality or just his temperament off the field? I know about his Mario Kart skills.

So there's that. He's quite competitive in that arena as I understand it. I want the world to be able to see him in his element and he had opportunities last October to showcase that and he didn't. And it was disappointing as someone who sees this every day and he is the funniest person in that clubhouse. He makes everybody laugh. He has incredible comedic timing in a language that is not his first language. And that's just a little part of the package, right? I mean, this is one of

the best players in baseball and I think he could be a marketing dream. And the one conversation we constantly have about the guy is, why is he so underrated? Why is he so under the radar? And there are reasons for it, but I just, I was really hoping he'd have this just key moment in a big game last October and, you know, he would do his strut once he touches home plate and walks back to the dugout or he'd say something funny that the mics would pick up and it just didn't happen. And I, I wish it would. I mean, this is a guy who he had 39 home runs, 39 doubles and 41 stolen bases. So on the doorstep of a 40, 40, 40 season,

something only Alfonso Soriano has ever done, but nobody noticed because Shohei Otani was going 50, 50. And when that was brought to Ramirez's attention, he said next year he wants to go 80, 80. So I mean, it's little things like that. Like the guy is just so in control. And any questions about whether he was declining, his home run total had dropped each of the last two years,

his OPS had dropped each of the last two years, and he silenced all of that. He had one of the best, most well-rounded seasons of his career, yet another top five MVP finish. And now I think the conversation shifts toward the future. And thinking about what are the odds that this guy winds up in Cooperstown, I think it's pretty likely at this point, as long as there's not a steep immediate drop off. And it's just incredible if you study his career. This was a guy who, like Cleveland's own evaluators

a little more than a decade ago were penciling him in as their eventual utility guy. He was the replacement for Mike Gavilis way back when, and was just holding shortstop, keeping that seat warm for Francisco Lindor. And then you blink and it's like, another six and a half war season. Okay, fine.

Another thing I remember about Jose Ramirez's personality is a semi-viral tweet that you sent at the trade deadline last year when you broke the news to Jose Ramirez that the Guardians had traded for Lane Thomas. He was not aware, and he was possibly aware of who Lane Thomas was, but it's not entirely clear. He said, tell me you said Lane Thomas. He said from the, you said Nationals. And he said, oh, okay, okay, good player. So maybe just covering for not knowing who Lane Thomas was,

or maybe he knew, but forgot where he played, who knows? Anyway, Lane Thomas is playing center field now and that's a segue to my next question, which was prompted by a discussion our Patreon supporters were having in our Discord group the other day about an MLB.com headline from just a few days ago, which was, can guards get first 20 homer outfielder since 2014? That is how long it has been since the guardians had a 20 homer outfielder since 2014? That is how long it has been since the

Guardians had a 20 homer outfielder. That's more than a decade. That encompasses a period when more home runs were hit than in any other season. So this has been a running theme for them. Now they do have Stephen Kwan, who is a national treasure and is a fantastic player in his own right, but not the type who hits 20 homers, although he came kind of close this past year. So I will repeat that question in the headline to you. Can guards get first 20 homer outfielder since 14, whether it's Lane Thomas who is projected at the fan graph step charts to have 19, so right on the cusp, or maybe Quan takes another step forward in the power department, or I guess it depends on what position John Kenzie Noel plays and whether those count as outfield homers. Can they do it? And if so, who will be the one to

snap that drought? What if I say they have two? Ooh, two. Wow, okay, don't get greedy. Someone has to hit some. And Noel seems like he could do this and it doesn't even matter what the rest of his statistics look like. He'd think he's one of those hitters who is gonna run scorching hot and ice cold. And you look up and some seasons his OPS is 880

and some seasons his OPS is 880 and some seasons his OPS is 630. And in either scenario he could have 25 home runs. I don't know what to expect with him and the question I think is if he opens the season in a platoon, a timeshare in right field with Will Brennan, if Noel's going really well, does he steal some of those at bats against right-handed pitching? That could help him get to 20. He hit 13 last season and he wasn't even up half the year, so that's certainly in there.

Thomas is interesting. This is a guy with power, with speed, with a track record that shows he's improved his swing decisions and it's a contract year. So can he put all that together? That's a really enticing free agent. A guy who could hit 20 plus home runs,

could steal 30 bases, could reach base at a decent clip. We just haven't, he hasn't really put it all together in his career. He's one of those guys that I'm like, I have no idea what the final stat line looks like. I think there's a very wide array of potential outcomes here but the top end looks awesome.

I have no idea what to make of him. He's also playing center field, he's probably better suited for a corner. I don't know if I'd give any of the three greater than a 50% chance of doing it, but I guess if you put all the odds together, I would bet on somebody doing it. Quan is probably the long shot,

though, as you said, Ben, I mean, he had 14 home runs and he missed 40 games. And he proved his strike zone awareness is as good as anybody in the league. And he decided the conscious change he wanted to make last season was if he's ahead in the count and someone throws him a fastball on the inside part of the plate,

he's gonna turn on it. If you look at his 14 home runs, I think most or almost all of them were fastballs in the inside part of the plate. He says his greatest asset is short limbs, which allow him to turn on that. So this is a really long-winded way of saying, I don't know who it is, but I think someone will do it. Kaitlin Luna Yeah, I wanted to ask about Kwon and sort of his

resurgence because you noted the injuries that kept him out, but he had a down 2023 relative to his strong rookie debut and then really really, you know, sort of bounced back offensively last year. So what was he able to sort of adjust and tweak to return to his rookie form? So he went to a batting cage over the off season. He lives in Chicago and he said his goal was to swing and miss because he was so averse to the idea of unleashing this aggressive swing because his thing has always just been elite contact ability. That old school, the hand-eye coordination that he's had since he was a kid, that's

the thing that made him a prospect to begin with. He realized it was almost like a defensive approach, just trying to make contact, stay alive and account, and hope to just poke a single the opposite way. And he knew pitchers were not going to throw him anything out of the zone. They would just throw him stuff that he'd roll over because he's trying to make contact. He's not trying to hit the ball with the authority. So he went in the batting cage, basically closed his eyes and just swung and missed until he was at peace with it. What he learned was that, you know, he knows the strike zone better than the umpires. Like in the future, he's going to be so valuable because he's never going to get a challenge wrong, right? Like it's, so he knows what is a strike.

And he, if he's ahead in the count and the pitcher throws him something that he knows he can drive, it's just the mindset of swinging with the intent of doing damage instead of, oh, here's a pitch over the zone, like let me just slap at it and do what I do. So he had to change the mindset and what he learned was, he still walked more than he struck out last season.

So he was able to hit for more power without it really hindering the entire offensive profile. It was July and the guy was hitting 400 for a couple days. It's easy to forget he was the leadoff hitter for the American League All-Star team. He's a guy who lives with some imposter syndrome. He's looking around. He's seeing Aaron Judge and he's seeing Bobby Wood Jr. and he's thinking, I'm in the same lineup as, like this doesn't make sense.

That also helps him. You know, he's not a guy who's gonna fall in love with trying to hit home runs. It's just gonna be a happy accident. And it makes me really wonder what the ceiling is here because three major league seasons, three Gold Glove awards, we know he can hit for average. He just showed he can hit for power

without sacrificing any contact ability. I mean, this should be a guy who ranks somewhere near the top of the war leader boards year in and year out. And like, is Stephen Kwan, like the most unassuming baseball player in the league, is, could he be a top five MVP finisher? Like, I don't think that's crazy to ponder. Love the idea of just exposure therapy

for swinging and missing. Just get used to the sensation. It's so unfamiliar. One guy who did hit 20 home runs last year in triple A plus five more in the majors was Kyle Manzardo. The guardians are hoping to get more pop from him in the majors this year. Do you think that that is forthcoming? Yeah, they needed to be.

They protected him a little bit last year, obviously just coming up, facing right-handers, DH-ing, which I think he had to sort of adjust to. You have to twiddle your thumbs a lot on the bench for hours every night instead of taking your mind off of a strikeout or something by playing the field. So he was much better in his second tour with the Guardians toward the end of last season to the point that he was batting second against right-handed pitching and even during the playoffs. So I think he's just much more comfortable and they're really banking on him. There's a few young guys. This is still a team that you didn't go out and sign the

free agent. You're leaning on Brian Roquio emerging as a legitimate shortstop and Kyle Manzardo being a power hitter in the middle of your order and Bo Naylor breaking out at the plate. So Manzardo is certainly one of those guys that they're predicting big things for. And he's a guy who's had a history of drawing a ton of walks and maybe he can hit 30 doubles and hit 20 home runs. And suddenly you're not missing Josh Naylor as much. We should talk about the remaining Naylor, Bo Naylor, because you noted that they want him to take a step forward at the plate, his defense, his sound. I want to hear about Naylor and what he might do to sort of emerge as more of an offensive force, even if we catch or adjust it. And then I simply must ask about the Guardians continued love affair with Austin Hedges because

he is a tremendous defender and he had a 20 WRC plus last year and even catcher adjusted. That is a shocking number to see from a big leaguer. So let's start with Naylor and then tell us a little bit about his backup. You know, for the last six weeks of the 2023 season, Bo Naylor had an OPS pushing 1200. He was a first round pick. You see the athleticism. You dream about what this could look like. And his history in the minor leagues was some really profound struggles one year, and then

he'd repeat the level and he'd be great. And so I think the Guardians are kind of hoping that that's the case here too, where it's just, just be comfortable. Like you're the guy. There's nobody, Austin Hedges is not gonna push for more playing time with the numbers you just cited. And so you see what he accomplished in 2023 and you're thinking this could be a top 10 catcher

in baseball and he's surrounded by other catchers. Steven Vogt is his manager. Craig Albornaz is his benchco or associate manager. Sandy Alomar Jr. is on staff. Austin Hedges is a great resource. The defense was gonna take care of itself. You have too many sharp minds to fail defensively. And he just never hit last season.

But even in never hitting, like 13 home runs, and you just see the athleticism at times, whether it's stretching a single into a double, or he stole six bases, and I know that's not much, but he stole 20 in a minor league season. Like you see the pieces here, the ingredients. It's just, can you put it together? And they loved the defensive strides he made last year. I think it also helped last year. They had David Fry, who was kind of a third catcher, versatile dude who broke out at the plate. And so when Naylor was struggling, they could stick Fry a catcher until he injured his elbow in the middle of the season. That safety net's not there now. Frey can't play the field in

2025 and hedges is just an abomination at the plate. So there's no safeguard in place here. They need Bo Naylor to not repeat a 614 OPS. They need more out of him because they have several spots in the lineup where it's sink or swim. Hostie, you mentioned Basana. I'm curious whether it's him or any of the other guys that they might have floating in the high minors. If they don't see steps forward from some of the established guys, who do you think

we might see get big league time this year? Yeah, Juan Brito is an interesting option at second base, a switch hitter who had 21 homers, 40 doubles, always draws a ton of walks. So you could see him at second base at some point. You know, Chase DeLotter is, he was a first round pick three years ago and it's just never been healthy. And that's the case again this year. He's a guy who if he could just, on the field, he's raked at every

level and is probably ready for a major league audition but just can't stay on the field. And then Bazana is the interesting one. They have a lot of clutter at second base. They've got Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Angel Martinez, Juan Brito. I think they want to learn a little bit more about those guys before writing anyone off, casting them aside. And if Bazana hits well at AA and gets up to AAA, and they still have question marks at second base, I think that becomes a real conversation

maybe in the middle or toward the end of the summer. Well, let's switch to pitching, which has generally been a rosier subject for the Guardians over the past several years. And usually we start with the starting rotation and there are certainly questions to ask about that rotation, but let's start with the bullpen. Cause when you have one of the best bullpens ever,

then I think they deserve to lead off this section. And this probably plays into the fact that the Guardians have what I'm sure are disappointing projections to a lot of Guardians fans, not for the first time, but right now they're at I think 78 wins on the FanGraphs playoff odds. And of course, that goes hand in hand with their base runs record last year or whatever you want to use. They were 11 wins over their underlying records based on base runs. And so maybe Guardians fans are sick of this and maybe the Guardians themselves are using this as motivational material. But when you have one of the best bullpens ever and given what

we know about bullpens and how they fluctuate from year to year, what's the case that there isn't significant regression coming here, that we shouldn't look at just how great and how clutch their relievers were and it's mostly the same guys who are back. So maybe the case is, hey, it's the same guys. They were just really good. But given the history of just how hard it is to repeat a performance like that,

what can Guardians fans bank on to say, okay, this wasn't a fluke or we're not taking a significant step back when we regress? I can't make the case that there won't be regression. They had four relievers who made at least 74 appearances in the regular season and had a sub-2 ERA. And then those guys pitched pretty much every playoff game the team played. So everything is pointing to, you know, the alarm bells are ringing. But my argument for why it'll still be okay is they've assembled depth

They traded Nick Sandlin. They traded Eli Morgan and they did it because they have Andrew Walters Who was a second round pick came up briefly at the end of last year? tossed eight and two-thirds innings and give up one hit and he's got like set-up man closer type stuff and Could be at the beginning of the season the team's number six, seven reliever. They signed Paul Seawald, just another insurance policy. They have a few guys who are, they're dealing with injuries, but they're young and they're interesting. Eric Sobrowski, Franco Alamon, whose minor league numbers the last couple of years have been off the charts, he throws hard.

They've got Nick Enright, who had an ERA of like one last season in AAA when he was healthy. So I think there's depth. I think they signed Jacob Junas just to give him some bulk. They've got guys who could find their way into the mix if they don't make the rotation. Expecting Hunter Gatiss to repeat a 150-70 RA is unrealistic. But even if some of these guys are around three, let's say, there's enough depth here, other guys who could take steps forward, where this is still the strength of the team. And it might have to be. The rotation's gonna be strange. I keep coming back to that word.

Just because there are so many question marks after Tanner Bybee, and while I have more confidence in say, Gavin Williams than I did Carlos Carrasco, who ranked third on the team in innings last season, you know, I do think there's an element of like, kinda biding your time until Shane Bieber returns in the middle of the year, or peaking your interest at like what John Means

might be able to do for six weeks at the end of the season. So you hope that you don't have to lean on the bullpen for the quantity that you did last season, but I think it's still gonna have to be a strength of this team. Well, let's talk about that strange rotation and the guys who are lined up behind Tanner Bybee. So walk us through their options behind them.

You mentioned that Means and Bieber will hopefully be back later this season. But talk to us about how they're planning on constructing things, at least in the early going here and what you might expect from those guys. They're really excited about Gavin Williams. First round pick, top prospect, great rookie season, stepped back last year. Had injuries, then had like a new pitch that he was implementing and just looked like he was playing catch up and was never comfortable. Clean slate this year. They're excited about him. They got Luis Ortiz from the Pirates. Guy who throws hard. Giant dude. Sequoia trunk legs. Just looks like he's built to throw 180 innings. I think they're pretty content with him.

Then it's question marks. Ben Lively was a journeyman pitcher who didn't even expect to be in the Guardians rotation last year, thought he was going to be a swingman type and wound up being second on the team in starts last season and had a career year. Can he repeat that at the age of 32 going on 33? I don't know. That's a lot to ask, but they might need him to. Tristan McKenzie was one of the best pitchers in baseball three years ago, but the last two years have been a nightmare,

and I have absolutely no idea what to expect with him. Joey Cantillo showed flashes last year in his rookie season, but again, just a question mark, and it's so hard to predict what sort of developmental path a young pitcher like that is gonna be on. Logan Allen showed signs of being a competent major league pitcher in his rookie year in 2023 and then looked awful last season.

So again, a question mark. They signed Colby Allard, they signed Vince Velasquez. It's a lot of minimally to moderately interesting arms that they hope there's just enough quantity to pluck sufficient quality out of. But it's really on Bybie, Williams, and Ortiz to lead the way and anchor this group and make it competent enough to not have to lean on Hunter Gaddis for 78 appearances and Tim Heron for 75. CB You wrote a really good article last April, I would say, an Ohio Sports Writer of the Year Caliber article about Tristan McKenzie and his elbow unknown, which was fascinating because

at least one doctor recommended that he have reconstructive surgery. Another said rest. He opted against the surgery, which seems like an uncommon choice these days. Now the Tommy John internal brace, et cetera, just is viewed as almost routine. And it's hard to say whether that was the right call. It certainly looked like at various times that maybe he was delaying the inevitable.

Maybe he should have just gone under the knife and gotten it over with. So is there any more clarity about the state of his elbow and whether he can be back to the pitcher he was? Cause I really enjoy watching Tristan McKenzie when he's going well. He is a fun pitcher to watch. Um, you know, he's got that the fastball with the extension and then he drops in just a beautiful curveball. When he was going well in 2022, 190 strikeouts, sub-3 ERA. There's a reason. He was a trendy Cy Young pick going into the next season.

And that feels like a decade ago. He got different opinions from different doctors and I think he wrestled with this decision for a while. I think the way that played out really hurt him last season. Once you make the decision, it's the decision. There's no turning back. You're back on the mound. The decision he made was so that he didn't have to miss this extended period of time, critical time in his earnings window as he's in arbitration and he's inching closer to free agency.

He was actually pretty close. They were having some lengthy conversations about a long-term extension in the spring of 2023 before all of this. So there was just a lot for him to weigh, I think. The location of where the terror was gave him hope that he could pitch through it after some rest. And he studied some other people who had similar situations, but you never know. And I think last year he was healthy. He said it, the team said it, there was no pain or anything, but I think it was mentally challenging to know that you're

dealing with this, that you made a decision you made, and maybe he wasn't throwing with enough conviction or he just didn't have the right intent that he needed to have on the mound. You'd see him falling behind hitters and then they would know that he needs to groove a fastball to get back in the count. That's how you give up 19 home runs in 75 innings. It's hard. His first spring outing, he looked great and he's hitting 95 and he's throwing with intent and all that.

Then his second spring outing, he walked five and recorded two outs. I think at this point, it's just, if he gives you anything, it's a bonus. But it's disappointing. I mean, this looked like a guy who was gonna piece together a really nice career. And the door's not closed on that, but the way the last two years have gone,

where he's made 20 starts, his ERA is over five, it's just a huge fall from grace so quickly. And it's hard to imagine what the path back to that looks like. Maybe we can do a quick roundup status updates on a quartet of players who did have elbow surgery last year. So Trevor Steffen had Tommy John surgery in March.

David Frye was the last of the group late October. And then in between there was Shane Bieber in April and John Means in June. So what contributions are the Guardians expecting from those guys? When could they be back? Yeah, so Stefan's the interesting one just because he doesn't have to build back up

like a starting pitcher would. So like he's been throwing bull pens and I think they're hoping he'll be back at some point in the first half. Shane Bieber, I think he's throwing five bullpens now and he looks, I don't know. I mean, has anyone looked bad during a bullpen session to an untrained eye? Probably not. But, uh, he looks like, like you wouldn't know he's injured, I think is the best way to put it. It's remarkable because he had surgery less than a year ago. He won't say he's ahead of schedule, so I guess I can't.

I'm not a doctor. He's targeting mid-season. John Means explicitly said August is his hope. And David Fry, his is a little different obviously because he's a position player, so he'll be limited to designated hitter but he can hit and they're hoping at some point May or June he can return to the lineup. I think that we probably have an answer to this question in terms of the external view of it but how do you think Stephen votes for season as manager when I say we have an answer from the external view because he did win the AL manager of

the year. But, you know, this was a guy who had very limited coaching experience, had done a stint with the Mariners, but hadn't managed at the minor league level, comes in, takes his team to the ALCS. Tell us about Stephen Vogt's rookie year as a manager. I think he viewed his own career through a coaching lens. He was a 25 year old third string catcher in A-ball. So he never thought he'd play for a decade in the majors. And at that point, he's picking the brains of every coach.

He had shoulder injuries that kept him out for extended periods of time, and he would shadow other coaches. Or in 2018, he missed the season because of shoulder surgery, so he essentially arranged for an apprenticeship with Pat Murphy and Craig Council in Milwaukee. It's almost like he played for a decade just to set up this most important phase of his career. Saying all that, you still have no idea, right? He's replacing Terry Francona, covered Terry Francona for 11 years. I could tell you what his answer to a press conference question is going to be before it comes out of his mouth.

I had become so used to watching a master of his craft and it's incredible how many things Vought does that remind me of Francona. And they're very different people, but just the communication skills and building relationships and giving players space and saying the right thing at the right time and delegating. And I think, you know, even Vought admitted like there was so much he didn't know. He was going to lean on Carl Willis, his pitching coach, until Carl Willis fell over, like things like that. But as the season went on, you just saw him thrive. I don't, I just, like, he just looked natural.

And I've been around teams where the manager in his first, second year, like, it doesn't quite feel right. This did, and I think part of it was they got off to a really good start. They went seven and two on an opening road trip. I think they were like 16 and six. And so the vibes were just good from the get go

and they never really looked back. They were in first place, I think all but six days of the season. So it's easy to say that like, you know, the culture was great and all that. Well, winning helps that, but at no point did he really seem out all that. Well, winning helps that. But at no point did he really seem out of place. It was incredible to me. I mean, I did not expect that. I wasn't sure

what to expect, but I don't think it was that. Well, that takes us to our last question, which is to follow up that success. What would constitute success in 2025? What do the Guardians have to do to hit their marks and please themselves and their fans? I might have a different answer to this than probably they would or the fans would. To me, it's almost just like repeating what they did last year because it's a different group and they're going to be leaning on different strengths. I think like you still need the bullpen to be the strength, but they need to make sure that Kyle Manzardo is put in a position to really blossom, right?

And Bo Naylor and Brian Rocchio and Noel and et cetera, et cetera. There's 15 young players that they need to take steps forward. And so there's a lot of risk. There's a lot of variance here. And so just having a season that resembles what they did last year, which was an enjoyable journey to follow from start to finish, would be really impressive to me.

And that would show that there's the structure and the foundation in place here where maybe the projection systems and us, we all just miss something. And sometimes there are teams that do that and maybe this can be one of those teams. It feels unfair to say, well, they made the ALCS, so a successful season is,

they gotta get to the World Series. And it's been 76 years since they've won one, so there's an element of, a successful season is finally getting that parade, right? But I don't know. This division, I think there are four teams, you could stick them in any order, and it would be hard for me to argue against it. And so if they're able to just kind of recapture the spirit of the 2024 season and look like

a legitimate contender from start to finish, I guess that's good enough for me. And the big question of course is can Zach Meisel repeat as Ohio sports writer of the year? You know, sometimes the voters, they don't like to give it to the same person back to back years. They get bored. They want to switch things up. There are a lot of sports writers in Ohio.

You've already won two, but we're pulling for you and we will be reading your work at The Athletic and also listening to you on your podcast about the Guardians, Selfie as Godcast. Thanks to you. Thanks to your very young daughter for napping during the duration of this interview. Yeah. I think this is going to be a hangover season for me. I'm going to let somebody else take the hardware home, but I appreciate both of you. Thanks for having me on and have a great season. That'll do it for today. Thanks as always for listening and thanks to those of you who support

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