Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2336: All Your Future Devers

Episode Date: June 17, 2025

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley discuss the Rafael Devers trade in depth, covering why Boston made the move, the resulting fan frustration, and the Giants impact. Then (57:56) they cover bad news about Christian Montes De Oca, John Brebbia, and Johnny O’Brien before bantering about Shohei Ohtani’s return to the mound, the Rays rotation, Charlie […]

Room room, here's your primer. On Beef Boys, Baseball's in, Roger Angel and Super Pretzels. Lilian's asked a deal, and Mike Trout hypotheticals. Waiting for the perfect bat from a volcanic eruption. Ladies and gentlemen, the Effectively Wild introduction. Hello and welcome to episode 2336 of Effectively Wild, a FanGraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Reilly of FanGraphs and I'm joined by Ben Lindbergh of The Ringer. Ben, how are you? Ah, stunned, gobsmacked. Shocked. Not actually speechless, that would be bad for a podcaster, but emotionally more or less speechless. I refer,

of course, to the fact that Brian Van Bell, the Red Sox player we discussed last week, who was promoted on the same day as Roman Anthony and then designated for assignment before he could make his debut was traded to the Reds. Blockbuster. Red Sox swap. Didn't see it coming. Glad he's getting a shot somewhere else. But no, that is not the Red Sox trade that we will be discussing in depth today. Yeah. We, uh, we typically don't record on Mondays and have to this week because of draft combined stuff. And I messaged you last night and I was like, well, I guess we don't have to worry about having something to talk about. Sometimes the Friday to Monday turnaround is a little quick in terms of news. Um, but no, Craig Preslow was like, I think I'll do

it for effectively wild really. Like I'm, I'm going to do it for the pod. You know, that's my motivation here. We might've had to move the timeline up if we hadn't already been recording today in emergency Monday recording. But yeah, I do have some demoralizing news to report about a few Effectively Wild favorites and then some exciting news about another Effectively Wild favorite, but you know what? Let's go against our brand instead of starting with something

esoteric. Let's not bury the lead for once. Let's actually start with the big news in baseball, which is that other Red Sox trade, Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants. Wow. This news broke on Sunday. I wrote about it overnight. I'm sure you edited other Ben's blog about this.

And so we have a lot to talk about because I certainly didn't see this coming. I guess the signs were there, the groundwork was laid. And yet I didn't think they was laid and yet I didn't think they'd do it. I didn't think they'd pull the trigger on a trade like this. Yeah. And in case anyone did not pay attention to the details, just to lay them out briefly. So obviously Devers going to San Francisco, the Giants will pay the entirety of his remaining contract, which at this juncture is about $250 million over eight and a half remaining years.

Going back to the Red Sox are Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, who has already been optioned. Kyle Harrison was lined up to start against the Dodgers on Sunday night was scratched obviously before the game started and now is going to I guess get to know Worcester. And then two prospects, James Tibbs, the third who was a first round pick last year and Jose Baio who is a complex level pitcher, a good bit away, promising, but not close to the majors in any meaningful sense. Boston got a backup Bayo, Bayo redundancy, double Bayo. Yeah, Bayo part two.

I have so many thoughts about this. Good, me too. Do you want to start? Should I, how do you want to, how do you want to go here, Ben? Well, let us also trade places and swap speaking parts Should I, how do you want to, how do you want to go here, Ben? Well, let us also trade places and swap speaking parts as we go in honor of this exchange. So yes, I was taken aback by this trade despite all the drama, all the discord surrounding Devers this season, which we have discussed at length.

I still didn't think it would end quite this way because well, really for a few reasons. I mean, obviously there's precedence for the Red Sox dealing a face of the franchise or at least allowing one to leave. This is the third time that that's happened in the past several seasons. Yes.

But this time, well, in some ways it's less strange than say the Mookie Betts trade, which I think everyone's minds went to Mookie at some point over the past day. There are some similarities, of course. Devers is not the player that Mookie was. It's not quite as unforgivable. It's not quite as devastating. In that sense. I guess that's the good news that the bets trade set the bar so low that the Devers trade can't possibly be worse than that. So there's, there's that, but I think it's less surprising in the sense that for a player like Mookie to be traded at that juncture, a player that good and that young with a team in a big market,

coming off a lot of success that essentially hadn't happened before. As I recall writing for the ringer at the time, but the timing of it was more typical in the sense that there are times when you do trade a great player who is approaching free agency because you can't or won't extend them and you think that you can't keep them. And so you say, well, we'll get rid of them now and we'll get something back or at least in theory, you will. The Red Sox didn't get that much back in that specific swap, but that's the idea. Yeah. So that trade template is not uncommon. Whereas this one, like a year and a half

into a 10 year extension, pretty rare that both parties decide, yeah, we want to be in business together for a really long time. And then they pivot that quickly. And I guess it's pretty rare for a deal of that magnitude, like Devers's extension, not to come with a no trade clause. Not that he would have exercised it necessarily because I imagine he was willing to leave. But between that and the fact that he didn't have 10 and five rights because he's in his ninth season, he couldn't veto this trade even if he had

wanted to, so it wasn't subject to his approval. But that was weird to go that quickly from, yeah, we want this guy to be in town for the next 10 years and here's a nine figure contract to, we can't wait to get rid of this guy. That was unusual. And then also the fact that the Red Sox are in the thick of a playoff race. I mean, maybe not the thick, but certainly the periphery, somewhere between the thick and the periphery. They're, they're right outside of a wild card spot as we speak. Have a game back recording now. And Devers has been their best player, not their best player, but their best

hitter and projects to be their best hitter over the rest of the season. And so normally a team that is in contention, that had playoff aspirations and that still does, even though they're off to a somewhat disappointing start, would not take that opportunity to trade their best bat and coming off a sweep of the Yankees when morale is high, when they've won several games in a row. Seven of the last nine. Yeah, right. They're on a roll right now. And so much for momentum.

So for all those reasons, it was weird. And I was stunned at first when I saw this news. You raised a really excellent sort of point about the strangeness of it in proximity to his extension. And I've been trying to think about how I want to understand the way, it's like going to get kind of esoteric for a second here, but kind of how I want to understand the way that this Red Sox front office and Breslau in particular sort of understand themselves in relation to prior regimes and iterations of the team, right? Because Breslau's group is not the group that signed Devers to an extension, right? He signed in the early

part of 2023, Breslau didn't come in until I think October of that year. So in a sense, Devers isn't his guy. I mean, he's he is right because he's a fantastic hitter, but this was not a relationship that sort of had this high point and crescendo where they agree to an extension and then there's a degradation over time. There's clearly seemingly been degradation over time, but it doesn't date all the way back to the extension, right? So on the one hand, I have some sympathy for his relationship to that move and decision being sort of at a remove from what it might have been if, if he had been the guy, you know, to be up there on the dais with, with Devers when the extension is announced, um, in much the same way that like Craig Bresla didn't trade Mookie Beths, right? But we exist in like, can't do like a bad job of quoting

Kamala in a way that I don't mean to, but like we exist in the context of what came before us, right? Like those things happened, uh, in addition to the context of what came before us. Right? Those things happened in addition to the reality of this being a team that like traded away Mookie bets, didn't get much back, but then sort of was able to in some way, to some degree, recover from that decision by saying, well, we're investing that money into Rafael Devers though. Right? Like the money that would have maybe gone to Mookie is just going to go to Devers. And

so look, we're, we are keeping our guy. There's a guy we do want to stay. Right. And I don't think that like, you know, sometimes guys leaving, it ends up being fine. Right? Like we might bemoan it in the, in the moment, but then like they go on and they're not as good at their next stop or, um, you know, that money is allocated to other players and it ends up being, um, more fruitful and productive for the franchise. Right? Like, I don't think that the Red Sox are really bemoaning the fact that they let Xander Bogart's go for instance. So I'm sympathetic to like, Brazile maybe having this notion of like, I don't know, like, is

Mookie Betts in the room with us right now? Or I like, I didn't do that. But also your team did. And that's going to be the sort of base state that your fan base is reacting to any movie make from. And maybe that's fair. Maybe it's not, but it is the reality of what you have to, to contend with. I don't quite know like what is necessarily fair to say about this particular administration versus others. But the reality is that like if you're a Red Sox fan, you don't give a about any of that, right? This has been your team the whole time and your team just spent an off season, sort of seemingly bungling its relationship with your franchise player by not communicating effectively with him in light of the Bregman stuff. You've watched your franchise player be kind of petulant

about the DH thing in a way that I think is understandable and human, but also like wasn't an amazing look at the time. Seemingly rebound from that, right? Everybody's getting along and then be asked to move to first. And I think that like, it's fair to look at the way the Devers maybe handled the initial DH ask and be like, the Red Sox should have communicated this more clearly. This shouldn't, you know, if you have an effective this more clearly. This shouldn't, you know, if you have an effective conversation with the player, maybe there is strife, but we never hear about it publicly, right? That's resolved internally, and it doesn't become like a storyline for you in spring training. I can also understand Devers getting to that second juncture where he's now being, he's agreed to move to DH,

that second juncture where he's now being, he's agreed to move to DH. He's rebounded from a slow start. He's hitting really well. And then you ask him to move to first and him being like, at some point, am I going to be treated like a franchise player? Like quit, you know, dicking me around here. And I think that you can feel a couple of different ways about that ask, right? Like I know that there has been all within, within minutes of the trade being announced, there was already anonymous sourcing out to Red Sox Beats about how like, you know, being the guy with this contract comes with responsibilities and they were tired of him

not living up to them. And now they're bringing Ortiz in to like top rope this guy. And I'm just, I bring all of that up and we should talk about like the play piece of it. Cause obviously that's important to our understanding. But I think that if you're a Red Sox fan, it's really hard to walk away from this, however you feel about Devers and however you feel about his long-term trajectory, I think it's hard to feel good about the way that your franchise seemingly manages communication around this stuff, right? They do a poor job of it on the front end, in an instance where it really matters.

They seemingly can't manage a repair in any kind of efficacious way. And then they whack the guy on the way out of town. How much is that going to matter to future free agents, future stars coming to Boston? I don't know. I think if you write a big enough check, maybe it doesn't matter at all, but I could see it mattering some. And if it matters with one guy you want, that's a big problem, right? Like I, you know, I was looking at the comments on Ben's piece and there were people who were like, well, you know, they'll just go get Kyle Tucker. And I'm like, well, they will they just go get Kyle Tucker.

First of all, the franchise has to commit to reinvesting that money in the roster. We'll see if they do that. You know, I'm not saying they won't, but I'm not saying they necessarily will. Like, you know, Bregman, maybe maybe a lot of money is about to come, but I'm not saying they necessarily will. Like, you know, Bregman, maybe a lot of money is about to come free because I'm very curious to see how Alex Bregman reacts to all of this, right? Remember, he has an opt out after this year and the next. So like, we might not, there might not be an obvious third baseman on this roster come October, but they first have to commit to reinvesting that money in the roster. And then they got to convince someone it's going to be different this time.

You're our guy, you know, and we're all going to be here for a while. So you should feel comfortable signing a multi-year deal with us because we're, we're surely not headed for another administration change in a couple of years because we still haven't made the postseason since 2021. And everyone deals with that really well in this town. You know, it's just like an interesting, the optics of it, I think do matter, not only because the team has won, you know, seven of its last nine and it just swept the Yankees and it seems like they're on the upswing and they're only a half game out of the last wild card spot and the AL is very shiftable, you know, as a league on like the NL where, you know, I would almost understand this move more. And we can talk about the ways in which it's

beneficial to the giants, you know, in a minute, but like, you look like you're giving up in a meaningful way, whether or not you view it that way, like you need to do some proactive management of the messaging to the people of New England, the Bostonians. And I don't know that like slagging the guy on his way out of town is the first step in doing that well. So yeah, there's no scenario where this makes you better for 2025. Right. Unless I suppose you immediately before the deadline somehow put this money to use and reinvested and go make some other acquisition.

But it seems like we've already blown the biggest deal of the deadline and it's not even close to the deadline yet, which was another reason why the timing of this trade surprised me so much. It's mid-June. It's too soon for something like this to happen. But yeah, you can sell it and we can talk about the ways in which it might make some sense for the Red Sox or how you could kind of couch it as a move that makes sense on a baseball level. But you can't really sell it as this increases our chances of making the playoffs. Right. Season.

And I'm the guy who talks incessantly about Joey Manessas outperforming Juan Soto after the Padres traded for Juan Soto. So anything could happen. You never know that the plate appearances that go to someone else instead of Rafael Devers, maybe he'll slump, maybe someone else will get hot. It could happen, but there's no reason to expect it to happen. On the one hand, I don't think anyone really feels

for the Red Sox who's not a Red Sox fan. Most other fan bases are probably happy to see the Red Sox suffer after they have won four titles this century and after all the other success that Boston sports fans have enjoyed. But they really have endured a lot of whiplash in the past several years. Going from 2018 to this, it would have been hard to forecast exactly how things have changed since then because 2018, you have a franchise record,

108 regular season wins. You just sail through the postseason, you go 11 and three, you win another World Series. You have this young core of Devers who turned 22 that October and Betts and Bogarts who turned 26 that October. And you're thinking, ah, we've got these guys, this trio for the next decade or more. And these are the foundations of the franchise. And now in fairly quick succession, they are all gone. And the team has just been mired in mediocrity for the most part ever since then.

And man, that's, life comes at you fast, I guess. And it's come at them fast because they have stopped investing so much in the roster, the Red Sox, just, uh, historically after, after John Henry took over the team and really dedicated himself to remaking it, they were the top spenders in baseball, or at least they were given the Yankees, the Dodgers, et cetera, a run for their actual money. And now they're not doing that. So you remove Devers from this roster and they're maybe barely a top 10 payroll team for the rest of the season and in terms of commitments for next season as well. And depending on what happens,

they could even end up under the payroll tax this season. It's kind of cutting it close at this point. And it's not to say that they won't spend on anyone. They went out and signed Bregman and then they traded for Crochet and they extended him and they've extended young guys. They extended Christian Campbell. So they're still the Red Sox,

they're not the Pirates or anything, but they're not what they were. And there's no particular reason why they should have cut back after all of that success and the strong attendance that they get. And it just seems more and more like the Red Sox are just a piece of the portfolio that Fenway Sports Group has, along with Liverpool and all of Liverpool's high-priced acquisitions and the Pittsburgh Penguins and NASCAR and all these other sports investments and endeavors and the Red Sox are just one piece of that portfolio. And it just doesn't seem like they're that much of a priority because yeah, you can make a case that Devers' deal given how he's developed or devolved since that extension was signed isn't a great one and won't be great on the back end, but

they're the Red Sox. They could afford Raphael Devers, who is their best hitter now. And for at least the near future. And they need a guy like that, even if he didn't fit their positional logjam so well. And so there's no real reason for them to do a salary dump. And it's, it's a little bit salary dump and it's, it's a little bit soury dump and it's a little bit roster reconfiguration and it's a little bit drama and bad blood and bitterness and wanting to turn the page on that whole frayed relationship for which there is blame on both sides. But clearly

Boston didn't handle that messaging and communication and change management wealth whatsoever. So it doesn't reflect wealth on them either. No. And I think that like thinking about the way that the roster is constructed, I think also sort of illuminates one of the issues they have with this deal because I think that, you know, Ben talked about this in his, his write up, like all you have to do is look at the Zip's projections for Devers over the course of his contract to see like, barring something very strange, or barring him really bucking the aging curve, like, when it's all

said and done, the steel is likely underwater from a surplus value perspective, right? If you want to do the like beep boop bop boop calculus around this deal, not great. For the next couple of years, still projected to be a very effective hitter, right? And I think that there are parts of his profile even now that could give you pause, right? That could give you concern. Like if you want to look at some of his granular contact data, if you want to look at some of his granular contact data If you want to look at where he's making contact in the zone versus not like I think you know if you want to build a case that like There could be a really bad downside scenario for the bat. You could do that I don't know that I find it compelling over the next three to four years, but like sure one could do that

He's having a career year in terms of just the stats, like the results. And that's despite his ice cold, historically strikeout, ridden start. And he's a 15th best hitter qualified by WRC plus. And if you start in April, conveniently cutting off those five games where he went hitless even better and since May, even better than that. So yeah, you're right. He's, he's swinging and missing at more pitches in the strike zone. The bat speed has slowed the sprint speed has slowed a whole lot, which is unfortunate because being a burner was a big part of his profile.

Well, I guess it helped him on defense at least. And so that's maybe where it's manifested more. So yeah, clearly there have been declines on some fronts, but on the other hand, he's hitting as well as he ever has. He's sitting as well as he ever has. And like, you know, I understand that they do have some log jam to sort out. They have log jam to sort out despite a bunch of their hitters being on the injured list, right? But first, like, I don't know that moving devours like really effectively resolves a lot of that log jam. I guess you open up DH, right? But

do you want Roman Anthony DHing? No. And you're not going to put any of the other outfield bats in the DH spot because they're not really hitting enough to be DHS. So like, I don't know that it Joshi does he come back at some point? Right? Yeah, there's the upside. You can put your sheet at DH when he comes back. You have some positional logjam stuff that you have to sort out.

And part of that is precipitated by promoting the young guys. But I think that one thing that like really good, savvy organizations do is like, they think about how their roster pieces fit together. Like, how does that puzzle assemble itself from a competitive window perspective? Right? So this off season for the first part of the off season, everyone was up in arms about the Red Sox, not spending to their reasonable potential as a franchise. Right. And I think that we

were like, Hey guys, you kind of have to get better. They go get Bregman, which, you know, before he got hurt, looked like what a deal. You're not going to be able to keep this guy. He's obviously going to opt out, which he probably will do, assuming he comes back healthy from the, the aisle stint and is like a version, you know, a close version of himself from the beginning part of the year. But it's like you're investing money in Bregman, right? You're doing that opportunistically because you think that you're a good enough team to take advantage of his market not realizing the way that he was hoping to, right? You get Walker Bueller, that hasn't gone great, but like sure, good try. You promote your young guys, right? There's an opportunity for you to do that

because other guys are injured, but you're bringing Marcelo Meyer up. You're bringing up Roman Anthony. You're writing better jokes about Roman Anthony, ideally, right? And so you do all of those things. Those are the moves of a team that is not only responding to injuries throughout the roster, but is also in the midst of trying to win right now, right? Like if you want to pack it in, if you're saying, you know, this isn't close enough to really contending, you don't call up Roman Anthony, right? And you just like weather the accusation of service time manipulation, even though the guy was clearly ready, right? Like, I just don't feel like they are well aligned from a competitive window perspective on the roster as it's currently constituted.

Now they're kind of coming and going, which is always, not always, but has lately been the problem with this team, right? That there has just been years of them coming and going and it's like, pick a fricking lane. Yeah. First place, last place. You just never can tell. Right. And like off seasons where they sign like some guys, but not many trade deadlines where they like ship dudes out, but also bring dudes in. And again, I want to be fair to Breslow and this group because a lot of that coming and

going happened under Bloom. It wasn't, you know, his group that was engaged in of that coming and going happened under Bloom. It wasn't, you know, his group that was engaged in all this coming and going, but now they're doing a little coming and going. And if I were a Red Sox fan, I'd be like, I would like to, I'm going to intervene on that sentence before it even leaves my mouth. I'd like us to pick a lane and I'd like us to stick in that lane. And I am so glad that I had the presence of mind to be like, that's not a sentence that needs to be out in the world for everyone to hear. So all of that to say,

like, I think that there is like a misalignment here and it's not disastrous. And you know, you can make an argument that maybe they don't even make some of the roster moves they've made lately if like all the guys stay healthy. But also you're not going to convince me that if Devers hadn't said to Craig Breslow when asked, sure, I'll play first base that he wouldn't be on this team right now. Like if he moves to first, do you think they trade him? I don't think they do. I think they keep him. And it's like, now it's about petty weird bull between you and the, and the player in

the front office. And like, that's not a, I just have a hard time believing that the situation was that unsalvageable. So it's like, again, now we're back to the what is the what is the understanding of like the messaging here? And I think that Breslau generally does a good job of that. Like, I think he manages to promise I don't want to always bring everything back to Jerry DiPoto, but like Breslow talks the way that Jerry thinks he does, right? Like he is doing a version of I'm a former player, but I'm analytically oriented.

You know, he has this like resume on the pitching dev side that I think is real and robust that he can point to the way that he talks about constructing a roster, talking to guys, thinking through like how they understand where they are. He talks about that stuff the way that Jerry wishes he was or thinks that he is. And yet they are still not managing to successfully message around this stuff. So what's that about? Yeah, I do find Breslau to be a bit mechanical, a bit business-speak, lots of buzzwords. Most front office figures are like that these days. I don't know that he steps in it as often as Jerry does, but he doesn't seem super

personable and at ease to me like Like you might expect a former player to not shocked that he seemingly didn't do the best job of relating to Devers. It's tough. There's almost a paradox. I think where when a team trades a player who got a big contract, then their fans expect that that guy's going to bring back a haul because he's a star. He got a nine figure deal. So why would we not get stars back and big prospects?

And the reason is because after that guy signs that big deal, there's not much, if any surplus value actually left there, at least over the life of the contract as opposed to the next couple of years. So that I think can be confusing for fans because they're thinking, oh, Rafael Devers, he's the last link to the 2018 team. He's been a great player. He's been there since 2017. He's done all these things. He's our best hitter. And all we're getting back is two prospects we've never heard of and two players who a lot of mainstream fans have never heard of. But, you know, Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks, we've heard of them. We know those guys, but they're not big names that your typical fan is going to know a ton

about. And so that's going to be disappointing, even though, yeah, you're not the only one who has said that this contract is probably underwater. Passon said that too. And RJ Anderson said that he had talked to teams that were surprised that the Red Sox got anything back. And like, you know, Hicks comes with money of his own, right? So they are, there is like a little bit of like contract offset there, but yes, I was surprised. I was surprised that they got, I mean, like Tibbs isn't like a top 100 guy, but he's not a bad prospect, you know? Yeah. His first round pick last year and he's, he's hit well and, and Hicks, you know, he's been successful in various roles and it looks like he's probably going to go back to the

bullpen then that's probably for the best. And if he's healthy, he's on the IL right now, but should be back soon. And maybe he gives you that dominant late inning righty reliever that the Sox haven't had to pair with Chapman. And they thought they were going to get that maybe from Liam Hendricks or Justin Slaton. And that hasn't happened. So, okay, maybe that's useful. And he's under contract for a few more years. And Harrison, he's just a little more than a year removed from still being a top 25 ish consensus prospect. Right. And he just hasn't really launched and hasn't really put it together with the Giants. But it is not out of the question that he could. And maybe he figures something out in AAA and they talk to him and he does something different and

he comes up and he's a staple of the rotation for years to come. Who knows? He'd more or less pitched his way out of a spot with the Giants, even though I know he was scheduled to start right after this trade happened. But their rotation has been fairly strong, starting with Webb and Ray at the top, and he wasn't playing a prominent role in it. But they could perhaps salvage him somehow. But the fact that he's not going straight to the major league rotation, even though the Red Sox could use some pitching help, that tells you that he's just, he's not a huge benefit in the short term unless they can just flip a switch with him somehow.

So yeah, it is simultaneously maybe they did decently to get back what they got, even though they didn't eat any money to get an improved package in return. And yet it is not going to appease any fan who says we had Raphael Devers, who was our best hitter, and now we don't. And this is what we got instead. And it's quite underwhelming. And as you said, so Bogarts is a good example of someone who they technically made an offer, but it was an offer that was never going to get him.

And the Padres just blew them out of the water. And that was when Bogarts was coming off of six win season, all-star, silver slugger, top 10 MVP finisher. And there was frustration Bogarts was coming off of six win season, all-star silver slugger, top 10 MVP finisher. And there was frustration that the Red Sox had let him walk after trading Mookie away. And then he had a pretty good first year with the Padres and then a not so good last year and an even worse this year. And so he's declined pretty steeply. And yeah, I don't think the Red Sox do have non buyers remorse when it comes to Bogarts. And sometimes you do have to take the long view,

even if you're gonna suffer some slings and arrows from the fan base in the short term, that's your job to look long-term. And sure, maybe Bogarts is a good example of that. Now, at the same time, the Red Sox, since they let Bogarts is a good example of that. Now, at the same time, the Red Sox, since they let Bogarts leave, have basically had combined replacement level short stops and second baseman.

So it's not like they replaced him with productive players. No. They replaced him with some scrubs and yeah, guys got hurt, but they've gotten next to no production out of those positions, collectively speaking. And so even if they had kept Bogart's and he had done exactly what he's done in San Diego, that actually would have been a substantial improvement. So yeah, you can let a guy walk, but then you do have to repurpose those savings and those roster spots and actually get someone

good and they haven't really done that. So there's a scenario, yeah, where Devers declines and the Giants are stuck with Devers and Adamus and Chapman into their 30s, and those guys don't age so well, and their payroll room is eaten up by that trio. And the Red Sox say, ha ha, it was smart of us actually to get out while the getting was good.

And we got a little bit of good devors at the front end of that deal. And we escaped the end of that contract. And then meanwhile, you bring up this new prospect trio. And I said in my piece, like the future is here but it hasn't really arrived yet. As those three prospects combined haven't done a whole lot yet. And that's mostly Campbell who started hot and then slumped.

And then Meyer and Anthony basically just got here and haven't done a whole lot yet. But if that's your new bets, Bogart's endeavors for the future, then great. Then maybe it doesn't matter that the Sox have had so little stability, both in the front office and on the field. And they keep changing faces of the franchise. Well, maybe they've found their new faces and those guys will be great. And everything will be wonderful. And no one will miss the guys that they lost.

Other than Bats, you're always going to miss Mookie because that's just, it's been the worst case scenario. That's worked out exactly as Red Sox fans feared. Mookie's won a couple titles and he's been fantastic. And all the Red Sox have left to show for it right now is the remains of Connor Wong, who has lost his job essentially to Carlos Narvaez, who's been great. But that's the worst.

You're never gonna live that one down. But but the others, maybe it works out OK. Maybe they don't just pocket that cash, but they also spend on some guys and they bring along this young core. And it's imperative that they do spend because if those prospects hit, then you've got a cheap productive core to go along with crochet, and you wanna make the most of that

and keep standing to surround those guys. Will the Sox do that? They haven't proved that they will. No, and you know, again, there are gonna be good free agents available every year, but who they are, how they fit your roster is gonna depend, right? But like who they are, how they fit your roster is gonna depend, right? Like again, the comments were like, oh, they'll go sign Kyle Tucker. I'm like, do they need another outfielder? Did I bonk my head and, and for, and like miss

the part where they don't have a weird intractable positional log jam in the outfields? Like why would they try Kyle Tucker? Kyle Tucker's not a good roster fit for them. Even if they move one of those guys, you know, even if they say like, oh, we'll move one of these guys to DH or we'll cycle some of these guys through DH or no, like that doesn't solve the problem for them. And it's not like there won't be another good hitter to come up on the free agent market, but you got a lot of density right there. You know, and I don't know, maybe you just pull the cord and say, you know, she does a full time DH now or whatever. But like, that's not the position where they need reinforcement. So yeah, like they're, this group is good and

exciting and there's other good stuff on the farm, but it's incomplete. And if you want to take the most benefit, right, out of having cost control talent of the caliber that prospect evaluators think a guy like Roman Anthony is, right, that Marcelo Meyer is, you need to be good when they are cheap so that you can spend the money on other guys to supplement and plug whatever holes you have, right? Like the Red Sox stand in a division where they have a really good example of how not to do this in the Orioles, right? Like the Orioles have not been able to maximize that young hitting core. They haven't spent money.

They haven't been able to paper over holes and now they're 30 and 40, you know, and times a tick in on Gunner and Adley and the rest. So it's not too late for them to heed that lesson. It's not like, you know, they trade Devers and now they're hopeless, but they're less good this year and they need to really bear down for the years to come to take advantage of this group. I don't mean to take advantage of them well, though that isn't what they're doing. But they're just going gonna get more expensive. And, you know, maybe one

thing that they do is like reinvest some of this money into a contract extension one of the with one of these guys. But I know that Campbell signed his deal. But like Roman Anthony is a different caliber of prospect than Christian Campbell and Marcelo Mares too. And if I'm those guys, I'm like, I'm not signing shit yet. So there's that. We should probably talk about the giant side of this, unless you have more about the Red Sox. Well, I was just going to say that the biggest loser of all, the makers of the Netflix docu-series about the Red Sox, the Clubhouse. Can you imagine if you make that series about the 2024 socks? Right. Oh, one season too soon. We could have had so much drama. We could have had so much back

biting. We could have had so many ruffled feathers and instead we had that. This would have been the season to have the cameras and the microphones surrounding the Red Sox? I, yeah, although I wonder how much, I wonder how much they would have captured, right? Like one thing that we remarked on at the time was that there's very little devours in that, in that documentary. I don't say that like, he's been fighting with Breslow the entire time. Secrets revealed. Watch my breakdown video on YouTube.

No, but he's not in it very much, which suggests to me that he said to them, I don't really want to participate in this. Um, but who knows? Maybe, maybe I'm wrong. This season. Maybe, maybe he would have said, Hey, bring that camera over here. Yeah. Maybe the Red Sox should have been like, I don't think that he wants to do it. He's a very private person. Yeah. Yeah. They would be like, I think we need to respect his boundaries. No.

Should we talk about the giant side of this? Yes. Let's talk about the giants. Well, all the negatives about the Boston end of this feel pretty good about the Giants side of the swap. Yeah, I mean, look, do I think that the Giants six years from now are gonna be super stoked to be paying Rafael Devers? I don't.

Do I think that the Giants on October 1st of this year are gonna be pretty happy to be paying Devers? I really do. I really do think they will be happy about that. I think that I love it for them. I love it for them for now. And, you know, I don't know, maybe, maybe the new market inefficiency is being like, well, we even have a society in seven years who gets their s***. Let's just win some baseball games in the meantime. I think that their biggest role as a team is that they need more bats. They need more bats who can hit.

I think you're available. There is as good at that. I really love them being this aggressive on June 15th. You know, we talked about how remarkable it is that this happened so early. We're more than, you know, a month away from the deadline. But right now, you know, they are sitting in, you know, second place in the West. They're two games back of a Dodgers team that is more vulnerable than we expected them to be, certainly, and I think more vulnerable than the Dodgers did.

They're doing the thing that I often encourage teams to do, which is to be like, let's go. Sorry for the swear, but like, let's just do it. Let's go get the guy we need to do a thing that we want. We've been desperately trying to spend all this money that we have, so we are happy to eat the contract. Again, will they be happy to be paying that contract a couple of years from now?

I don't know, probably not, but like that's future Buster Posey's problem, right? Current Buster Posey now has one of the best bats that apparently was available on the market, probably the best bat to move, you know, for extending the deadline period to include this, right? So I like it for them very much. They have their own little, you know, like roster that they have to do. And a lot has been made about this being a trade between two former players. We've seen how one of those guys managed to or didn't manage to communicate effectively with Devors. I'm going to be fascinated. I wonder how many conversations have happened within the Giants front office in the last

24 hours about like, how do you talk to this guy? Right? And I don't say that like he's, you know, like such a, you know, precious flower that he can only be talked to a certain way. But clearly like communication is important here, given how things went south in Boston. So how are they gonna manage that? Are they gonna be able to successfully, maybe not this season, but over the off season, say, hey, we do need a first baseman.

Like we have a need there. That has been sort of a black hole of production for us for the last 18 months. So, Ravi, you wanna? Yeah, I'd imagine that that conversation would go much better this time around if they decide to have it because it's just, it's so different in that he was the incumbent in Boston. He was the franchise guy, or at least they had made that kind of commitment to him and he had that sort of salary and he'd held down the hot corner there since 2017.

And evidently, according to him, was given some assurances that that would continue when he signed the extension. And then Bregman comes in and displaces him. That's a whole different proposition from Devers going to San Francisco. Now he's the new guy. Chapman's the incumbent.

The Giants haven't made him any promises about anything in the past. There's no history there. There's no misunderstanding. So I would think that he would come in and understand his place. He's joining a roster that has already been drawn up. And I know that Chapman is on the IL now and should be back next month, let's say. And I think it's probably not even worth introducing the idea of Devers third baseman in the short term. No.

That, you know, national league teams need DHs now too. So just have them DH and yeah, down the road. If I guess Wilmer Flores plays first for now and you can figure it out. I mean, if he wanted to try his hand at first, now in season, I guess you could indulge that. If he suddenly had a change of heart with the change of scenery, and after this season,

then yeah, maybe you can broach that subject then. And it's probably not quite so sensitive and sore a subject. But if you just leave him to DH, I think that's fine too, because he's exactly what the Giants need really. I mean, we've had the, are the Giants real conversation a time or two this season? And you get to mid-June and they're real enough. And I think part of their success has been

a clutch bullpen. They lead the majors in win probability added from their relievers. And can you count on that? Not necessarily, but you've got two top starters at least. You've got Chapman, you've got Lee. What you needed was some thump. That's what the Giants have needed for years.

And I know that that's partly a product of the park. And it's maybe the hardest place to hit homers in the majors and harder for lefties even than righties. And so the age old stat about how the Giants haven't had a 30 home run hitter since 2004 when bonds last did it and no other team has gone longer than 2019 without a 30 homerun hitter. I guess you can't count Devers if he gets to 30 this year and half of them or more were with Boston. That probably doesn't quite count and to get to 30 he'd have to probably pick up his pace because not that Fenway is a great hom run haven. It's just, it's a great doubles park actually. Devers has hit more home runs on the road over the course of his career. He just, he hits for a higher average in Fenway cause he can just flip balls off the monster. So he was well suited for that park and yeah, Oracle's going to take a toll and you're going to have to do some park adjustments on the surface stats, which will probably slide a bit. But even so, if you take a little chunk out of

his production, it's exactly what the giants need because they have the third most homers by right-handed hitters this season and the second fewest by left-handed hitters. And partly that's just because of their lineup balance or the lack thereof. And I guess knowing the tendencies of the park, maybe they just have fewer lefties, but they really could use a bit more balance and a bit more pop from that side. And Devers is probably the best hitter that they've had since Posey himself. So this is exactly what the Giants have needed. I mean, it's just a targeted strike that didn't cost them too much in the short term and down the road.

Yeah, that's next year's problem. That's a few years from now's problem. And Posey has shown that he can make the bold move and whether those bold moves will work out in the long run. I mean, he may be more inclined toward veterans, who knows, but the moves he's made thus far, Chapman was playing well before he got hurt and Posey helped engineer that extension. So, so far, so good. Adonis, not so great, not so hot. Verlander, not so great either, but he's at least gone for it in a way that fans were frustrated that Farhan

didn't or ownership didn't under Farhan, whatever it is, it does seem that Posey's willing to go for it and he's capable of convincing players when he needs to convince them to come to San Francisco. And the Giants finally got a guy like a big middle of the order masher after all the attempts. Bryce Harper and Carlisle Correa and Aaron Judge and Shohei Otani. I'm not saying that Devers is as good as most of those guys or any of those guys, but he's a big bet and that's just exactly what they want and what they needed. It is a fascinating reversal, right? Because, you know, less under Posey as you've noted, but like this was a, the communication

issue was such a persistent theme during Farhan's tenure, right? And now the team that he led for so long is sort of the beneficiary of the flip side of that for another club. So it's just like a, there's like a weird bit of, I don't know, something there. There's a bit of something there, Ben, you know, a little bit of something there. Yeah. I think that he's a fantastic fit for them, at least in the near term. And you know, we'll see how quickly it takes for the bat to decline, but they need it to

be good right now, you know, and I like them being aggressive. I just don't think you get a lot of times, you know, you can't go into any given season thinking like the West is winnable, right? And it's not just the Dodgers. I mean, obviously the Dodgers are a big part of it, but it was, it was very funny that like this deal goes down. And then like after that Dodgers game, Dave Roberts was like, oh, Danny's going to be the opener tomorrow.

And it's just like, yeah, these are the stakes of this division, though, right? You've got four really exciting teams and also the Rockies. That is the state of play. And so it's not just the Dodgers. The Giants have to contend with a Padres team that also is willing to spend money. And sometimes wisely, sometimes not. Who knows? They're doing fine. The D-backs are trying to win if they can ever keep anyone healthy on their team. These are clubs that are I think in the process of really trying to do something and you just have to act with a greater sense of urgency when it's all said and done.

Like that's how you're going to be competitive in a division with such a heavy hitter at the top. It's so strange that Betts and Bogart's endeavors are now all in the same division, leading a contender in the national league. What a weird outcome. And, and also that the giants and the Red Sox are playing each other this weekend. Right. Also just opportune timing intrigue. Oh yeah. You know, the biggest, the real beneficiary of this whole deal from a timing perspective is my Seattle Mariners because they started a series against the Red Sox today. Apparently, Dupote already went on MLB network radio

and was like, I'm thrilled, this is a great trade. Two thumbs up all around. There's an instance of good Jerry communication. Hey man, he- He's got a sense of humor. He can crack a joke. He respects a trader when he sees one, right? Like he, we talk about people having like a poster spirit, you know,

Jerry has traders spirit. I'm saying trader, trader, right? You say those words so similarly, you know what I realized I'm having to correct? Uh, when I talk sometimes and I don't know what, like, is this like a weird manifestation of a regional accent I didn't even know, picture and picture. Oh yeah. Yeah. I've noticed, yeah, I haven't noticed that with you. I've noticed that with some people who say those, the same sort of, or swap them.

Yeah. I'm having to intervene on that, like in a proactive way. It's really something. Anyhow. Thanks for your vigilance. But yeah, Posey apparently was talking to the Sox for a few weeks. So it's impressive that they managed to keep that quiet as long as they did. And I don't know what other offers were out there, but it was reported that the Braves were talking

to the Red Sox, the Blue Jays. Can you imagine if the Blue Jays, if Devers had gone in division, that was probably a non-starter, I'd imagine. Maybe they were just kicking the tires, even though I think in division and rival trade should probably happen more than they do. I think when you're chasing the Blue Jays in a wild card race, that would be an even tougher sell to your fan base.

And the Padres were in on it just because, speaking of traitors, AJ Preller, he's always gonna inquire at the very least. But Posey gets his guy. So. Got his guy. I hope that Devers is happier in his new surroundings, even if it means that he's resigned to DHing.

And if the Giants don't pull off a 2021 here and shock everyone and win the division, I do think that the wild card is just more winnable than it is in the American league, which has a lot to do with the fact that the Giants' playoff odds are about double what Boston's are. Just because, well, A, they're currently

in playoff position. So that's nice. Right. But it's pretty tenuous. It's just that there aren't as many teams. There are four teams within three or so games of the third wild card spot, whereas in the AL there are six. And also some of those teams are maybe more formidable than the NL teams. Like if you're the Red Sox, you're trailing the Rays, the Jays, and the Mariners. You're also just neck and neck with the Twins, and then you've got the Guardians to reckon

with and the Rangers and the Royals and somehow the Angels. And also, I guess if you think the Orioles could somehow salvage this thing and get in the race, they're not that far back. That's just a whole lot of traffic. There's just a pack of potential contenders around there. Whereas in the NL, it's still kind of compressed. But, you know, you have the Phillies, the Giants and the Padres currently in possession of those wild card spots and then trailing them.

The Brewers, the Reds, the Cardinals, the Diamondbacks. I'm just a little less scared of those teams collectively than I am of their AL equivalents. And then I guess you have the Braves as the NL Orioles equivalent team that was supposed to be good and has been bad and is still lurking theoretically. So I think the path to the playoffs is a little smoother for the Giants. And that's so interesting that that's your opposite. I think the opposite just because I, I guess I agree in the sense that like AL teams get to play against other AL teams more often. And the AL is weaker as a league. But I also think that like the, the NL is just better in part

because teams like the Giants are better. But I guess my sense of the current AL wild card field having bad combustible potential seems quite high, right? That one of these teams might get really hot and really good. And we'll see where all of them sort of stand from a roster perspective after the deadline. But I could also see them like just having the bottom fall out, you know, part of why the Rays are where they are is because they've had this like incredible hot streak, but they were like pretty mid before that happened. So I, I don't know. I don't know.

I don't know, Ben, how interesting. It would be good if we disagreed for once. Yeah, I think I disagree, but it's going to be a dogfight in both leagues. And it's probably going to come down to the wire. And there's just so many teams in such a small space of standings, then whoever wins is, is probably going to win by a game or two or

three. And so picking up Devers in mid-June, especially, that could very well make the difference. It could be the difference. Yeah. So, smart, opportunistic. They profit from the Red Sox, Michigas, and now Devers is in San Francisco. So did not expect to be talking about this today. I didn't either. Did you watch the Sunday night game? I did not watch the Sunday night game. So, you know, of course, like famously, the Giants played that game because like Kyle Hirson was supposed to start that game. So they, you know, they talked to like they talked to

Willie Adomis about mostly about how his season was going, but also about this. And? So they, you know, they talked to, like they talked to Willie Adomis about, mostly about how his season was going, but also about this. And I was like, I really wish that Mookie was set to be miked. I want them to go put a mic in front of Mookie's face and just be like, hey, you know what this is like. What is your little take?

Yeah. Special dispensation. If they wanted to do a live in-game on-field interview of Mookie Bets in that one circumstance, I guess I would grudgingly allow it. Limited circumstance, that one limited circumstance. Yeah. Okay, well, I wrote about this also.

I will link to that on the show page as well as other Ben's blogs. So hopefully we have covered it. I guess we've talked about this fairly thoroughly. Done an hour on Devers. It's not bad. Yeah. Well, it's, you know, it may well end up being the biggest deal in deadline

season, so I think spending an hour on it, it has, you know, there's a lot to say about it now and as we've covered, you know, there's a lot to say about it now. And as we've covered, I think that there's a lot about this deal that will continue to reverberate for these teams, you know? And so I think giving it its due is worthwhile. Okay. Well, I mentioned that there was going to be some bad news, some sad news about a few

recurring characters from the Effectively Wild universe. So I will break that now, and then we can circle around to resolve on a positive note, hopefully. But let's see, in ascending order of how upset this news made me. First, Christian Montes de Oca, who was the subject of a recent meet a major leaguer segment. I was pulling for him. He was a Phantom major leaguer.

This was the guy on the Diamondbacks who signed unusually late for an international signee for a Caribbean Latin American player. And he got called up to the Diamondbacks and then he got sent back down. And then the subsequent update was that he got called up again and he got called up to the Diamondbacks and then he got sent back down. And then the subsequent update was that he got called up again and he pitched and he did make his debut and he lived happily ever after. Well, not quite. The story didn't end there. He then suffered elbow inflammation, which was bad enough. But then the news surfaced that he is now having back surgery

in addition to the elbow inflammation, which is also still present. So lower back surgery plus elbow inflammation for Christian Montesiocca, most likely out for the season. But at least he did debut, whatever happens. He is no longer a phantom major leaguer. He is a tangible corporeal major leaguer, and no one can take that away from him. So that's one bit of bad news.

Next level up on the bad news hierarchy is that John Brebbia at the moment is not an active big leaguer. My man, my man crush John Brebbia at the moment is not an active big leaguer. My man, my man crush, John Brebbia, designated for assignment by the Detroit Tigers, twisting in the wind, out there for any potential takers who want a great clubhouse guy and clubhouse cutup, he's out there for you.

And who knows, maybe this will hasten the arrival of his podcasting career, get on us, John. I was gonna say, I got a bunch of travel coming up if you wanna just ask Brevia to take the mic. Yeah, I don't know if he's ready to make that career transition, but when he is, I hope he comes calling or answers our calls. But look, I can't give the Tigers too hard a time given the results that Mr. Brebbia

has had this year and also last year. And look, the guy has a near eight ERA this year and the peripherals are better, but they're not great and they weren't great last year. So obviously I hope that he can catch on if that's what he wants to do and that he can keep pitching. But Tigers, they are playoff bound. They are cruising to an AL Central title. And I do understand that baseball is a business

and it's a result oriented business. And you do need to pitch well to maintain your hold on a roster spot, no matter how funny and entertaining you are. Yeah, no matter how big a cutup. Yes, yeah. Well, we wish him well in his baseball and or media member career.

And of course we will provide further updates as warranted. The last and worst bit of bad news is that effectively wild podcast legend, Johnny O'Brien passed away just this past weekend. Yeah, you were talking about Seattle U alumni in the majors just the other day, and Johnny O'Brien, twin of the late Eddie O'Brien, was one such Seattle U legend

and an effectively wild legend, I guessed on episode 1153 and also 1332 when he was accompanied on the podcast by his grandson, Riley O'Brien, who is a pitcher for the Cardinals currently. And Johnny was just the best, incredible character, great stories. It all came out of Jeff Sullivan fun fact, which Jeff was so tickled to discover. And then we cold called Johnny and he turned out to be better than we possibly could have imagined. Yeah.

And he died on Friday, I believe at age 94. And story said he put up a good long fight and it was hard to hear that news. And I told Jeff about it too. And he said, best episode we ever did. And I told Jeff about it, too. And he said, best episode we ever did. And I do not disagree. So for anyone who hasn't heard 1153, please give it a spin.

Go back and as a tribute to Johnny, listen to that episode. Just one of the best. I guess he was an octogenarian at the time, but one of the best former players guess he was an octogenarian at the time, but one of the best former players that we've ever talked to, RIP, and condolences to Riley and the rest of the O'Brien family. Oh, that's terrible.

I'm sorry to hear that. Yep, all bad news. And so I needed a pick me up of some sort. And I guess I got it, courtesy of Dave Roberts and the Dodgers informing me that 2A Otani is back to some extent. He's back, baby. Yep.

He's back, baby. We're recording several hours before Otani is due to open for the Dodgers against the Padres. Just the latest intrigue in what has become maybe baseball's best rivalry. And this was sort of a surprise. They sort of stealthily snuck up on us with this news because they had been slow playing, show playing, O'Towney's return to the rotation.

Thank you. And they made it sound as if it was a ways away and kept passing checkpoints and he would use all his pitches and he'd throw off a mound and more intensity and he'd throw to real live hitters and he'd throw all his pitch types and his pitch count would climb,

but it still seemed like he was just never quite reaching the return. And they kept saying, yeah, second half, maybe after the All-Star break. They've been, yeah, very vague about it. And then all of a sudden, I guess Shohei told them he was ready. And they said, if you say so, sir, because I mean, the thing about Shohei, I know it's odd for him to break back in this way, but I guess it's how you have to do it because the Dodgers are in a real race here

and they're also just a greatly diminished pitching staff. And so they do need whatever innings he could give them, but they also need whatever plate appearances he can give them. And so anyone else, you would obviously send them down for a minor league rehab assignment and they'd probably make several starts after a extended absence like this from competitive pitching, but not show hay because you can't take his bat out of the lineup.

Right. And you can add his arm to the bullpen without harming yourself roster spot wise because of the Otani rule and the special dispensation there. So Otani rule part two. Yeah. The other Otani rule and the sequel to the latest wrinkle and no really want to pitch. We really, really want him to pitch we really really want him to we really do whatever you need whatever you need yep so I guess it makes sense I have no idea how it's gonna go it sounds like he's gonna just throw one inning against San Diego and we'll see how it goes and then maybe he'll ramp up to two or three and then one of these days he'll just be back to being a regular

starter again in theory, if, if everything proceeds smoothly, but I would imagine there bound to be some bumps along this road, just because it's one thing to throw to your team's minor league hitters in a sort of simulated game. And it's another to pitch to the Padres in a pennant race. Yeah, it's a, it's's a different it's definitely a different sort of thing. It's like, congratulations. Here is a Fernando Tatis Jr. for your trouble. But hey, he's got to he's got to be

able to get those guys out. You know, that's I don't know if you know this, Ben, but that's sort of the goal for him to get those guys out. So, you know, if you know the spend, but that's sort of the goal for him to get those guys out. So, you know, it's pretty imperative. Yeah. So I'm excited. It's already, uh, we've made a date, uh, Jesse and I, it's a 10, 10 Eastern. Uh, we're going to be parked in front of that TV to see show.

Hey, it's always appointment viewing, even if it's only going to be for an inning in the best case scenario. So, you know, and I've still seen the same objections to just don't mess around with him, just let him hit, don't bother with this two-way nonsense. And he could get hurt again. I just, I don't get it because he's been hurt all this time and he's been like the best hitter in the league.

So that's the downside. If he gets hurt again, at least if it's the same sort of injury, then I guess he'll just keep DHing and being the best hitter in the league. So again, I think that's the risk. Now, if the Dodgers had a stacked rotation and it was just no room at the end

and it was all full up, and if Sasaki hadn't had a setback, and if Snell and Glasnow were back and there just wasn't an open rotation spot, would they handle it differently? I still sort of think no, because Otani wants to do this and I think they will defer to Otani for the time being. But I could at least see the case more so than now, where it's very much auditions are being held here for the playoff rotation, which is a ways away, but who knows which of those pitchers

will be still standing at that point. And if you can ramp Ohtani up to the point where he's more or less back up to speed by October, then why wouldn't you want him doing that at that point, provided he can continue to hit and there's no reason to think that he can't. Right, yeah. I'm glad you have no objection.

And if you did, I'm glad that you're biting your tongue. I keep it to myself. Yeah, I keep it to myself, but I don't have an objection. I think this is a nice way. I think this accomplishes a number of goals simultaneously. You ease the guy in against big league pitching because as you noted like that there is just a weird Weird reality that he faces in terms of his ability to like go out on a rehab student I do wonder I do wonder if like they you know if they had a 10-game lead in the division. Yeah You know, do they say it's fine, go do a normal rehab.

But like when it's this tight, I understand them not wanting to like lose his bat even for a day or two. So let's see it ease him back in. It takes a little bit. If it goes well, if it goes well, if it goes well, it takes a little bit of heat off your bullpen, which has been deployed very heavily over the last couple of weeks because of the injuries. Did you know, I can't call him low leverage Ben anymore. He can't, he's no longer low leverage Ben. He's starting pitcher Ben. I have to have, you know, I need to reframe my mindset about low leverage Ben.

In fairness, I should have reframed my mindset about him in terms of the leverage piece of it because he's just been pitching really well in a lot of spots But he'll always be low leverage Ben to me complimentary, you know Yeah, but I'm happy for him that he gets to like be starter Ben. I'm sure he's thrilled to be starter Ben I hope he doesn't know that I called him low leverage Ben. Like I hope that nickname didn't Make its way back to him. He's probably like why do the finger ass people keep calling me that like That's so weird. Who did this? It's my fault, Ben. It's my fault.

I screwed it up. Well, you're welcome to come on Effectively Wild if you're listening and gritting your teeth every time they call us on low leverage. Ben, Ben, you can come on. You can be other, other, other, other Ben or whatever number of Ben's we're up to. Ben to the fourth power.

I don't even know what Ben we're on. Oh, the principal of my high school is getting suspended for athletic recruiting violations. Who are you, Roosevelt, trying to be a big shot? Oh. Normally when we're doing recruiting nonsense, it's for vocal jazz. Cool.

My sister texted me and I was like, that was the ping. Sorry, some people are on override for silent. Lauren's one of them. And I was like, that was the ping. Sorry, some people are on override for silent. Lauren's one of them. And I was like, oh no. Emergency like this. I was like, is it a, one, is it a really bad thing? And then I see it and I'm like, oh gosh, like a little sex pass thing.

No, just like recruiting football players from out of state. Very scandalous for Roosevelt, my God. Yeah. I guess there's some potential maybe because they're breaking Otani in this way. If he's like lights out, out of the pen, if he just looks totally dominant and his stuff somehow plays up even more,

what if it turns out that Shohei Otani has a bullpen mentality this entire time? I guess the future for Otani that some people have kicked around from time to time where he's just sort of a fireman or he's like a outfielder slash closer or DH slash closer or that's his pitching assignment at some point in the future. I guess we'll get a look at that at least. I mean, we, we got to look at it in the WBC. We've seen it from time to time, but yeah,

I'm curious to see how he looks here, but it'll be tough to judge anything really until he gets probably several outings under his belt. So I will not be too excited. Well, that's a lie. I'll certainly be excited if he's dominant, but if he's not, then I will keep myself from being down in the dumps.

I will console myself by saying that, yeah, what other pitcher in the world would be worked back into a pitching staff in this manner? Can I end on a devastating burn that is related to the Devers? Do you ever have the experience, like you had to write, you know, like I had to edit so I haven't really I'm only Now sort of engaging with other people's coverage of this beyond the details of the deal and whatnot I guess that Mookie was asked about They don't have the question in here, but but based on the answer I think he was probably asked some version of like

but based on the answer, I think he was probably asked some version of like, does the fact that you were traded like bother you at all? And Mookie Betts said, I genuinely don't care. It just is what it is. And then the rest of Tyler's piece goes, why should Betts care? The Red Sox are 390 and 391 since trading him worse today than they were yesterday. If the Betts trade only haunts them for one generation, their lucky history calls for eight more decades of pain. Good gravy. And here I was, I was like, I don't know, maybe we're being a little unfair to them because like we have expressed concerns about how diverse will age. And like we were the one saying like you really should see it to Bregman at third. Hoofta. I don't think it's just I think I'm doing fine. I think I really should see it to Bregman at third. Hoofta. I don't think it's just, I think I'm doing fine.

I think I was measured. I think I was nice. Yeah, I think so too. Couple stray observations I just wanted to throw at you here. You mentioned the Rays doing a bit better lately. I had not noticed, and I think Joshian pointed this out in his excellent newsletter,

that the Rays are leading the league in starting pitcher innings. Actually, I think they're like an inning off the major league lead. It's so strange. They're, yeah, they're about an inning behind the Pirates, as we speak, the Skeen's enhanced Pirates rotation, for the major league lead

in innings pitch by their starters. This is, this is upside down. This is bizarro baseball. This is topsy turvy. The Rays are always just perennially like, yeah, toward the bottom of that list because usually they've got a great bullpen and they're always pulling guys aggressively and also guys are aggressively sproinging left and right with them usually. And so typically they're going to be toward the bottom of that leaderboard. And I'm totally unaccustomed to seeing them this high. And this came up actually, maybe Lorela mentioned it perhaps. I don't think it's like they've flip-flopped.

It's like the new, new inefficiency is actually starters go deep into games as nice as that would be. It just seems like their guys have mostly just been available and have taken their turns in the rotation. It's not even that great a rotation really, even though they're leading the majors almost and leading the AL and innings pitch from their starters, they're 22nd in starting pitcher war. So it's not like they've been just dominant lights out

or anything, but they've been kind of durable-ish by race standards and they're just running them out there. It's just, it's odd. I don't know what to make of this. Yeah, it is odd. Cause like normally when I think of the race rotation, I think of that scene in independence day where president Whitmore is like,

doesn't anybody have any missiles left? Right. And there's only one Ben, it does get the job done though. So maybe that's the other less another race, you know Yeah, so you're like, yeah sure that you know I laughed so genuinely and for such a long time at your joke and you were just like, yeah, maybe I don't know Yeah Laurel a mentioned Adam Berry, our Rays preview guest. He talked to Kevin Cash about it.

And Laurella was present when Cash answered. And Cash just said, they've been really good of his rotation, Shane Baas and Taj Bradley and Zach Lattell, former Effectively Wild guest and Ryan Pepeo and Drew Rasmussen. If there were reasons for us to take them out of ball games, we would do that. But they're making it pretty difficult because it seems like they're navigating

through their 90 to a hundred plus pitches. They do it pretty efficiently. They're getting deep into ball games and cash said it's not a philosophical change. I guess it's maybe partly that their pen hasn't been as good as the typical raised pen. So it's just a kind of a recomposition of their staff. I don't know. I'm just trying to come to terms with this. And if and when they get Shane McClanahan back, then you've got an even stronger rotation. It's just weird. So I'm spreading the knowledge of this weird thing that's happening. It is very strange.

I am surprised. Color me surprised. Yeah. Speaking of starters who have been surprisingly good, Charlie Morton has kind of bounced back a bit. He looked like he was cooked early this season. And I almost lumped him in with the other old starters we've talked about who could potentially be on their last legs running on fumes.

You know, he's been quite a bit better lately. I am enthused about this. It looks like he has something left potentially even at his advanced age and Baltimore needs him. And I need him frankly, because I have enjoyed Charlie Morton in my life. And looking at the splits, after the roughly six and a half FIP,

he had in the first month of the season, he improved that considerably in May and he's been pretty lights out in June. And he's been one lights out in June. And he's been one of the more effective starters if we set some arbitrary end points and pretend that his terrible starts this season didn't happen, which of course if we did that for everyone,

then everyone would look quite a bit better. But even his ex-FIP normalizing for the home run per fly ball rate was like five and a half in the first month of the season. And then May 3.4 and June 2.5 ish, the FIP 1.4 this month, which is half over and strikeout rate has spiked. I'm excited. Charlie Morton, there's a little left after all. And hopefully Rich Hill will displace him soon and be an older AL pitcher that we can all enjoy. But I'm glad that there's a little left in Charlie Morton's tank after all.

Yeah. Yeah. Cause we're like, we don't know where we are with Rich, you know, we don't know. Yeah. Where is he? What are they waiting for? Cole Regans is hurt. Come on. I know. Richell's, he's dealing in triple A. What are we waiting for? Cole Regan's is hurt. Come on. I know. He's dealing in AAA. What are we waiting for here? Yeah. Don't look at the gap between his ERA and his FIP.

It's fine. Some of us are trying to publish pieces and you're sitting there and you're talking to Jay and neither of you can find any reporting on whether or not he opted out. His object time is yesterday. Why do we know? Where's the information? Let me know what is going on. Yeah.

Yeah. I guess I could text him myself, get the answer straight from the source. Would you feel okay doing that? Like, hey, did you opt out, bro? You know? It would be a bit weird. It would be a little weird,

because you don't have like a texting relationship with him already, right? I wish I could say that I did. And if I were to establish one, I probably wouldn't start there by asking him to break news to me, to give me a scoop. But yeah, I don't know. I guess it's an option if no one else is filling that void.

I could do it. Haven't yet though. And here's another team that has more left than I expected. And this is much to your dismay. Why are the Astros good? I don't know, man. Why? I don't. Why?

Because they send in previous life or something? I don't forget that. It's not shocking to me that the Astros are good. Like I thought they might have at least one more season left in them. I think, did I project that they would win this division? Who knows? I'm forced to make predictions.

I immediately strike them from my mind and maybe I didn't even make one, but it doesn't surprise me that the Astros are once again atop the AL West, but it does surprise me that they are, when I actually look at the way that they've gotten there, because they've gotten next to nothing out of Josel Tuve, who's basically been replacement level.

And they've gotten next to nothing out of Jordan Alvarez, who wasn't hitting. And then it turned out that he had an injury that wasn't diagnosed and he was missing more time. So you tell me that they trade away Kyle Tucker and then they're getting very little out of Altuve and Jordan Alvarez. And I was already thinking this is this lineup's looking a little light, looking a little thin at the bottom there. So you tell me they got nothing from from those two. I'm going gonna say, okay, maybe actually the bottom

did finally fall out of this Astros team. No, not at all. In fact, Jeremy Pena has stepped up and is having himself a fine season, which I always kind of thought he had in him. And then he went a while just looking like a league average bat at best. And then suddenly maybe we could call it a post hype, post prospect, belated breakout potentially,

if he were to sustain this offensive performance. But, but he's been excellent. And Isaac Paredes has been good, which doesn't, doesn't shock me that he has adapted to his surroundings in Houston. And, you know, he had a good year like this a couple of years ago. So, OK, that's not completely out of nowhere. But Hunter Brown, of course, was great for much of last season and has continued to be in from Ber is just like the steadiest, most dependable starter in the sport, seemingly.

I mean, that's not exactly true. Like Tarek Scoopal is more dependable than Fraumberg. Sure, but he's like doing well, you know? He's doing great. And it always feels like Craig Calcutera has a bit, a running bit in his newsletter about how Fraumberg Valdes pitched seven strong innings, because he just, he does that every single time out, seemingly. There, there was that blip a couple years ago

where Fromber kind of lost it all of a sudden. And he had to like regain the feel for his pitches and change his pitch mix and everything. And then suddenly he's just back to being the same steady guy he's always been. And meanwhile, the bullpen's been great. And Josh Hader's been vintage hater. And Ryan Abreu has bounced back,

and they've got a pretty nasty late-ending pen there. So I suppose I've answered my own question here about how exactly the Astros are doing this, despite the lack of production from some of their stalwarts. But it still surprises me, not that they've ended up where they are, but that they have despite some of the setbacks and hurdles that they've had to clear.

Mm-hmm. I'm sure you're thrilled about it. I have notes, you know, like I could offer some notes Yeah about it It's not to my liking. I wouldn't I wouldn't say I wouldn't be like, oh This is the way I construct this season If I were given my druthers, but I don't know that I'm gonna be given those druthers, you know Where are my druthers absent gone? Yeah, and Kim Smith has held his own despite the accelerated timeline despite just Jumping to to the majors on opening day, which no one really expected.

He's been, you know, league average bet. He's been a valuable big leaguer. That's something at his age and with his level of experience and Jake Myers is having himself a fine season. I guess it's just, it's a bunch of semi unlikely sources and also some more expected sources, but yeah, you just, you can't kill them. You just, much as Mariners fans would want to, you just seemingly cannot drive a stake into the Houston

Astros hearts. It's not going great in that regard. Um, but hey, the Mariners did just sweep the Cleveland guardians. So that was a nice little bounce back after their disastrous jaunt to the desert. You know, feel like Julio's continuing to kind of, you know, cows, cow, maybe it'll be fine. You know, maybe it could be, it could be fine. It could be fine. I always know that you're confident that something will happen when you say it could be fine. It could be fine. I was just looking at the, the minor league free agent draft and I feel like that could be fine for me.

Maybe it could be fine. I've had a high hit rate and I pride myself in that. And yet you are very much in the running. Am I really am I in my head of other Ben? I believe so. I think so. Jake Bowers is really carrying the load for you, huh? Yes, and I hope he continues to despite the acquisition of Andrew Vaughn. But yeah, it's neck and neck.

EWStats.com, it is updated daily, I believe. And I am very pleased because eight of my 10 picks have made the majors already. I'm going for a clean sweep. I'm going for clean sweep. I'm going for 10 out of 10, which I think I could do because the only two who haven't made the majors yet are Luis Curvello, who last I checked had been lights out in AAA

for the Rangers and Anthony Siegler, who last I checked had been excellent in AAA for the Brewers and is a multi-position guy. So I feel like there's a real chance that I could go 10 for 10, which would be unprecedented in the annals of the minor league free agent draft. And I think even if I lost on cumulative playing time, if I went 10 for 10, I think I'd consider that a victory. You wouldn't have to because you would still win. I wouldn't consider it a victory. I'd consider it a nice consolation prize for you. You selected

well. You certainly had a good sense of who was going to, but I would not grant you a victory. I have pride, you know, and I'm the one who took Bryce Wilson. So how about that? Yeah. Oh yeah. He's, uh, well he's, he's carrying your team along with Adrian Hauser. It's kind of a two man squads. Yeah, one, two. With a few peripheral contributions. But yes, you trail me by a mere 44 combined plate appearances plus batter's face, as everyone can see for themselves on ewstats.com. And the less said about other Ben's total, the better.

Out of respect for him, I will not name his team and his tally. Could say that his squad went kibum. You could, yeah, it's gonna take a late comeback for other Ben to make this interesting. This is the cosmic justice for stealing Kriesma from me. This is what happens, you know? You take Kriesma and I'm gonna come for you.

You're never gonna let that go. Either of us stealing K gonna come for you. You're never gonna let that go. Either of us is stealing Krizma from you. Yeah, also Patrick Corbin update. He now trails Nathan Navaldy by three innings. He's in fourth place in innings on the Rangers staff and Tyler Malley is hurt. Tyler Malley is on the IL now. He's one of the guys that he's got a shoulder thing.

And so you figure Corbin will catch up with, with him quite quickly. He's 11 innings behind Malley and he's three behind Ivaldi. And then DeGrom is at the top with 82 and a third innings pitched to Corbin 66 and a third. And I absolutely hope that DeGrom will maintain that lead, because that means that DeGrom will keep pitching and stay healthy. But really right now it's

Ivaldi, Bayanoz and Jacob DeGrom. They are the only two pitchers who are keeping Patrick Corbin from the top of the Rangers innings pitch leaderboard. And I I'm not a betting man, but I if I were,

I wouldn't wager a whole lot on those two particular pitchers fending off Patrick Corbin's just inexorable innings eating rise. So still very much in play that he could somehow end up leading that staff in innings pitched, despite being an emergency last second pickup. I look, I think that those guys, as we talked about, they aren't going to win a Cy Young. And if everything goes the way you want it to, they're not even going to be in your playoff rotation, but they deserve, they deserve a hat tip.

You know, like that this yeoman's work, right? They're doing yeoman's work out there. And it has a, there are teams that, that wish, there are teams that wish they had Patrick Corbin. They're like, we should have signed Patrick Corbin. Why didn't we sign Patrick Corbin? That would have been so smart of us to sign Patrick Corbin. So, you know, you're better than those teams. How about that?

He was there for the taking. And lastly, how do you feel about the Yankees and DJ Lemahue's proposal that MLB begin to use Hawkeye technology to call Fairfowl, which right now is still subject to human video replay review, but the Yankees have been a bit up in arms about this. They had a call go against them. They've had some issues. Yeah.

On Friday, they lost a one run game to the Red Sox and LeMayhue hit a ball in the 10th inning that was deemed foul, although the replays made it look like it touched the right field foul line. Aaron Boone said that a quarter of the ball made contact with the line, but it was upheld. It was called foul on the field and it was not overturned. And LeMayhue, who's sort of an old school guy,

but he was, I guess, asked about the potential for, you know, like in tennis, line judges have largely been replaced by Hawkeye and boundary calls. And LeMayhue said, yeah, that'd be nice. How are we trying to look at a moving video camera to decide if it's fair or foul? We have all the technology you could possibly have in this game. How do you not get stuff like that? Right.

I'm sure they've thought about it. I've thought about it too. Would you be in favor of this? The Yankees also had that instance where Aaron Judge seemed to have been robbed of a home run in Tampa. And, you know, he he needs all the homers he can get. So between those two incidents, Boone has been in favor. The Yankees, seemingly as a group, are in favor of Hawkeye coming to the rescue.

I think that that would be fine. I don't know. I don't want to overstate how much I know about like how close to being game ready This is but like hot they use Hawkeye for boundary calls and tennis. Yeah, and it's been pretty smooth Yeah, yeah like that was like the first use case for Hawkeye was boundary calls and tennis if I'm not mistaken which I might be because I Make mistakes, but um, I think that it seems like a good use of that technology They'd have to you know, make sure that they can do it reliably and what have you. But I think that it seems like it's within the

technological capacity of Hawkeye to do. Do you have other things? Cause I have, I feel badly for how much suffering Red Sox fans listening to this episode may have experienced. And so I want to offer a take. I want to offer a Yankees take. And I want, listen, listen everyone, if you're not a Red Sox fan, this isn't for you. Okay. This take isn't for you. And I'm not being super serious about it. I'm not saying there needs to be consequences, but I think I've arrived at the following conclusion. Because, you know, I end up having to, I end up having, I ended up watching a fair amount of the Yankees cause like they're very good baseball team. Got some really good players enjoy that radio booth so much.

Ben, man, Susan and Dave Sims, they're great together. What a delight. You just, just if it's the Yankees, it doesn't matter if they're playing your team, just put that, put that radio overlay on, on MLB TV. It's so nice. So nice. Here's what I've decided. I think Aaron Boone is a bad example for children.

Because of his, his rage. I need the guy to learn some emotional regulation is all I'm saying. Cause and I know that like the league has been like, Hey dude, you can't keep getting ejected. There have been times where he's been told to calm down and, and sometimes he gets ejected. There have been times where the ump has really gone at him. And sometimes I'm not saying he's always wrong in the particulars of the moment, but I think that he is a bad example for children. And I think if you're a Red Sox fan, you should

just like dine on that for the rest of the day because you've had a rough 24 hours. It's not your fault. I'm not trying to invoke good will hunting with that, but I guess there's that too. But he's a he's he's being a baby and it's a bad example for children. And they're going to raise a generation of whiners in the greater New York area. Like, tighten up, my guy. Come on, like, via, I know there are times you gotta, like, there are times you gotta get tossed, you know, for your guys, you know, sometimes as a shield, sometimes to pep them up. But like, not everything is worthy of throwing the gum.

He throws the gum a lot. That, you know, someone else has to clean that up. Be an adult, like, I know that emotional regulation can be hard. I'm not saying it's not a challenge, but guess what? Rise to it, my guy. I saw a great montage the other day of Otani just picking up after other players and himself. Just clips of him just cleaning the fields. Just various rubbish, bats and balls and debris.

Is he like a tidy sort? Yeah. He's very clean and he just goes around. Yeah. He just picks up after people. It's very nice. But yeah, Boone, obviously when managers get mad, sometimes it's performative and they're doing it to fire up their team. I have to think that that effect must have worn off at this point. At some point it has to. The Yankees are so accustomed to seeing him lose it. What motivational impact could it have at this point? And sometimes you do it for the fans so that they say, hey, at least he's given those umpires the business and he really cares and he's sticking up for us. But

doesn't seem like this has endeared him to Yankees fans on the whole. So that doesn't seem to be paying off either. And, you know, maybe part of it is just riding the umps in hopes of getting more favorable calls because they just don't want to cross you and have to deal with you. So maybe, maybe there's something to that potentially, but also maybe they just write it off as there goes Aaron again but it's it's funny this like Jekyll and Hyde thing he has going because I would not describe him as fiery most of the time right?

I agree just the opposite right? It's not like Larry Boa or something. He does. It's not like Total red-ass spark. Like he's, he's always raring to go, but he loses it. Sometimes you want more emotion out of Aaron Boone and fans are frustrated because he just takes this measured tone and he doesn't just lay into people. But when he does, boy, he certainly does. And, uh, he does fairly often. It's like his postgame pressers tend to be fairly reserved. But in a game, yeah, he's angry. So I don't know what he would do to the Hawkeye system if it were making that cause, which

for the record, I'm in favor of having that happen. Also, I would think that it wouldn't be too heavy a lift because we're already using Hawkeye to measure everything and it's going to be used for the challenge system and everything. So it seems like the precision is sufficient. If it works in tennis fairly well, which it does, then I don't see why it couldn't work in baseball. And I wouldn't miss any aspect of the fair foul call human element. There's just no, no skill or nuance to that. Right. I'm really aware of and and in general, the movement in sports seems to be towards shifting from video review, which is still sort of subjective and manual in a way to wherever possible,

automated systems, which cut some time out to make a snap judgment. And you don't have to have people go to the tape and call New York and get it relayed and stop the game. It's just, it's faster. It's probably a little less error prone. And so we're seeing that in a lot of sports and sometimes there's a backlash as there is in soccer and VAR. And sometimes there's a bit of a is in soccer and VAR. And sometimes

there's a bit of a rollback or people don't like these innovations. But for the most part, I think that's been the tendency that's been the trends where not only do we have more video review, but we are shifting more and more from video review to automated technology review, which in a circumstance like this. I am perfectly fine with yeah I think that it seems like an appropriate use of that technology and that it is a source of Controversy seems very silly given the ability to intervene on it. So I'm in favor of that anti-whining pro Fairfell calls

Well, I'd say Shohei's still got it. Padres made him work. 28 pitches to get through the first, gave up a run. One blue pit, one tough call on a check swing that went against him. Couple calls that went his way, but sat high 90s, touched triple digits, threw a couple pretty pitches. Command wasn't quite there, but for his first real outing

in almost two years since his surgery, not too shabby. Nice to have two Aotani back. And I'll leave you with some words from Pope Leo, the baseball pope, who was recently photographed wearing a white socks cap. He also sent some tweets about sports. In our competitive society, where it seems that only the strong and winners deserve to live, sport also teaches us how to lose. It forces us, in learning the art of losing

to confront our fragility, our limitations and our imperfections. It is through the experience of these limits that we open our hearts to hope. Athletes who never make mistakes, who never lose, do not exist. Spoken like a true White Sox fan, though those words could bring comfort

to Red Sox fans as well. You open our hearts to hope when you support the podcast on Patreon, which you can do by going to patreon.com slash effectivelywild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going, help us stay almost dad free and get themselves access to some perks,

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