Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2341: The Second Half Has Started

Episode Date: June 28, 2025

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Kutter Crawford’s mysterious wrist accident, then discuss Wander Franco’s conviction (14:58) and Walker Monfort’s promotion (19:57) before checking in (33:36) on the players and teams on pace to overperform or underperform their preseason projections the most at the precise halfway point of the season. Finally (1:12:44), they answer […]

I wanna know about baseball I wanna know about every single team I wanna know about Sadglass and Van Graafs and about Oh, oh, oh, Tony I'm a very modern fan Reading up on all the analytics I wanna know about baseball Presented by Patreon supporters of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from FanGraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of The Ringer, joined by Meg Raleigh of FanGraphs. Hello, Meg.

Hello. Can I tell you about the newest baseball mystery that has consumed my mind? Sure. So, Cutter Crawford, Red Sox pitcher, is having likely season-ending right wrist surgery. And the Red Sox are declining to say how he hurt his wrist. So he had an off-field accident. That is what Alex Cora has divulged. But he has declined to say what the nature of that accident was.

He said, it wasn't irresponsible. He said, I'm not going to get into details. It's not disappointing, as in it's not disappointing to the organization. Like you did something that was disappointing. Obviously it's disappointing that he hurt himself. It's just an accident. It stinks that it happened that way.

Stinks is in brackets. I don't know what the actual word was there, but. I wonder if whatever it was, it was preceded by something very gnarly. Perhaps. Like, it effin' stinks. Well, that'll remain a mystery, I suppose, too. But what could it possibly be?

Cutter Crawford is not obligated to tell me how he hurt his wrist, but it is sort of standard practice in baseball. I suppose we're sort of spoiled when it comes to the specificity with which teams name injuries because they don't always, sometimes they can be cagey and sometimes they can keep things a little bit under wraps or they will downplay something

that will turn out to be a bit more severe than they let on initially. And maybe they knew a little more than they divulged upfront. But we have it a lot better than, say, people who follow or cover hockey, where it's just like lower body injury, upper body injury. Right. Who could say what that means?

Is that an amputation? Did they strain a muscle? Who knows? No one knows. And in baseball, typically, if someone suffers an injury that requires probably season-ending surgery, we get some indication of why that was, especially if it was not just in the normal course of pitching, if it was an off-field accident of some sort. Because if it wasn't something embarrassing or irresponsible or disappointing to the organization,

if it doesn't reflect poorly on Cutter Crawford, then why not divulge it? It has sort of strized and affected me where you could have told me almost anything about Cutter Crawford's wrist and I would have said, sure, fine, whatever. But now, you're not going to give me details. Now I need to know. So I, I don't want to invade Cutter's privacy here. He's, he has it hard enough as it is having to have surgery and injury plague season and all the rest, but I cannot help, but be curious about what sort of accident that is not irresponsible would still be best kept under wraps and follow up questions went evaded.

Well, and my understanding, and here I might be misremembering details of the CBA, so you'll have to forgive me if that's true, but you know, I think part of it is that when the injury does occur within the course of baseball activities, I think that they have to tell you under the terms of the CBA, whereas they have a lot more latitude to obfuscate if it is an away from the field sort of incident. So my sense of injuries is perhaps the opposite of yours, where it's like, I think you're right that we often just know because the expectation and the precedent is one of disclosure, even in instances where they would perhaps be within their rights to not say anything. But you know, normally when it's like if a guy blows out or does something to his Achilles,

who could say, well, that's top of mind. But you know, we hear about that. And we hear about that with a great amount of detail. Whereas you're right, like hockey, who could say, and you know, football's not much better when it comes to this stuff. So yeah, it is a little odd. Maybe it's not disappointing, but it is embarrassing. And they're trying to spare, cutter scrutiny around something, you know, something.

Who could say? Who could say what that something is? Many people did say in various replies to tweets and such. You could probably imagine what people might have joked about it being a wrist related injury that you might not want to get into the details of. We would not traffic in such speculation here because our journalistic standards are... Unless you wanted to. I wasn't preparing a couple of potential jokes. I wouldn't do that.

I want to respect Cutter Crawford and not be a jerk about it. I guess it could thread that needle of not irresponsible, but still embarrassing. Right, yeah. And yet the thing is that there are so many embarrassing baseball injuries that you would just be one of many. It would just be, you'd be on a future listicle of like top 10 strange baseball injuries and people who hurt themselves on can openers and hurt themselves sneezing and Joel Zumaia playing guitar hero.

Like is it more embarrassing than those? And if so, I mean... Ben, again, I don't want to speculate. I don't know Cutter Crawford, his relationship to other people or himself. But I will say that like cutting your hand on a can opener, playing Guitar Hero, being in your thirties and twisting funny and then all of a sudden being out for two months. I suppose you could call those injuries embarrassing because they make you kind of klutzy, right? They like put you into that territory.

But there's like that kind of embarrassing. And then there's jerking it so hard to get surgery. I mean like- Well, you went there after all. I'm not saying that that is what happened. No. I don't know. I would not saying that that is what happened. No. I don't know. I would hazard a guess that that is actually quite unlikely.

Probably, yeah. And so, you know, I don't think that that's what happened, Ben. But that is where one's mind goes when one's mind is deprived of details and one's mind is in the gutter to begin with is that you start thinking, is this some sort of sex-related injury?

Like, because rarely in all the annals, annals, I said, annals of baseball injuries, you don't really have that so much, right? Like, I'm struggling to think of examples of that specific sort of injury and it can happen, you know? Yeah, I don't have a mental catalog of sex injuries. It could also be that it's something innocuous and they thought that maybe there would have been more condemnation of him if they specified, whereas it's so nebulous now. Like, one of the

many ways that Chris L. hurt himself when he was on the Red Sox was bike related injury And I know that there are still Red Sox fans who who say oh that probably wasn't what that was just the cover story Because there are many notorious Instances of players who had some cover story and then it came out that that wasn't actually what happened You know, Jeff Kent's washing his car being the canonical example, but there are many, you could look it up and I'll link to some examples. But that's the thing is like when they don't divulge,

then they encourage, they invite speculation. And so that's why you think, well, gosh, what could it have been that it wouldn't have been better just to say? You know, like if he heard himself doing some non baseball related physical activity, there might be some fans, even if it was something perfectly fine, there might be some fans who'd be like, get annoyed by that.

Yeah, you should just be a baseball robot. You should be doing nothing but baseball, anything that could potentially injure you. That's you being a bad teammate or not moving up to your contract. Even if it's not something that's prohibited by a contract, it's just like, you should be more focused on baseball. And so leaving it to the imagination might be better potentially if you think that fans are going to react harshly to whatever it was, even if it isn't something that was impermissible. Right. And you know, a great many of these guys' contracts

do specify certain activities that are sort of verboten for them to engage in while they're under contract, whether it's the regular season or not. And sure, maybe, but then it would seemingly fall into the realm of disappointing if it was one of those things that he was expressly forbidden from doing and it resulted in some sort of an injury. And you know, the way that teams handle this, these things sort of depends on their relationship with the player and what the state of affairs is

more generally. Like, you know, I think that like the Padres were inclined to be pretty transparent about what Fernando Tatis had been getting up to because like they knew that he was, I'm sure they knew he was going to face a suspension for PEDs. And I wonder if it was, they sort of had a posture of like, we got to knock some sense into the kid, right? Like we got to, there needs to be public consequence for this as sort of a wake up call moment that he needs to take his responsibilities to the team more seriously. This doesn't seem to have been one of those things. I don't know. It's so strange. It

is very strange. I want to be clear, Ben. I want to be just like painfully clear. I don't think that this was a masturbatory injury. I don't think that that's what happened here. I do wonder what did happen though. I do, I wonder. How can you not wonder? You've piqued my interest now. Well, maybe someday the truth will come out and we wish the best to Cutter Crawford, regardless of how he injured himself.

Hopefully the surgery is a success. He comes back strong from whatever it was. Right, I'm not trying to impugn the young man, you know? Candidly, if that was how he were to injure himself, that feels like it's just none of my business, you know? Yeah, yeah. I guess the thing is that so many players have been forthcoming,

or at least it's come out one way or another. I mean, Google Clint Barmas venison. Google Clint Barmas venison story. Clint Barmas deer meat. Just one of my favorite weird injury incidents. That'll definitely. He fell on deer meat? This is 2005. This is 20 years old. Let me read the AP report. Colorado rookie shortstop Clint Barmas says he was lugging a package of deer meat he got from teammate Todd Helton and not a bag of groceries when he fell and broke his collarbone

because it had come out like there was a different version of the story initially. Oh, sure, sure. And then like Todd Helton was implicated and then there was like suspicion that it was about an ATV because the story says Helton said he and Barmas had ridden four-wheel all-terrain vehicles at Helton's ranch on Sunday. Helton said the ATV ride had nothing to do with the injury. God, I got it. I cannot say it strongly enough. He did not get hurt riding an ATV, Helton said. Don't put it in the newspaper that I was mad.

Right. I was there. He never left my eyesight the entire time. Helton said he, Barmas and rookie teammate Brad Hop were riding about five miles per hour, which I'll leave it to you how believable that is. Is that how fast people typically, is that the point of riding an ATV? Let's really rev this thing up to five MPH here. I don't know. Does that sound plausible?

It sounds plausible in so far as there is at least some percentage of the ATV riding community who seem to derive the most pleasure from how loud the damn things are. And if you're going slowly, you are maximizing the amount of time that other people have to hear the ATV. So maybe in that respect, it's plausible. But no, young men writing ATVs doesn't conjure five miles an hour to me. That's not my initial instinct. Me neither. It's like, well, we're baseball players. We can't risk life and limb here.

No. So we will get on the ATV, but we will throttle down to five miles per hour. We're responsible. Everything in moderation, really. And so it wasn't the ATV ride. Afterward, Helton treated the rookies to a dinner that included deer meat and Barmas liked it so much that Helton treated the rookies to a dinner that included deer meat, and Barmas liked it so much that Helton gave him a package. So he then had the package of deer meat, and thus he was lugging that, I guess, up some stairs, and he fell, and that's how he hurt himself.

It's quite elaborate. Maybe it's a truth is stranger than fiction sort of story. Like the ATV injury would be pretty predictable. The falling because you were carrying deer meat that you got as a gift after the dinner that followed the ATV ride. Who could invent such a thing? Rocky's general manager at the time, Dan O'Dowd said he doesn't doubt Barmas's explanation that it was a fall and not the ATV ride that caused the injury.

This is one of the greatest character kids we've ever had come through this organization. I have no reason to doubt him. It's an unfortunate injury for both him and for us, but he'll get through this. So, you know, that may or may not have affected Clint Barmas's career long-term, who knows. But I'm just saying, if people are going on the record with the I fell carrying deer meat story,

then that's the bar. So like, if it can't clear that bar, whatever happens to your wrist, then I'm just saying anyway, maybe someday Pablo Torre will find out perhaps maybe we'll get some Pablo on the case. Investigative journalists on this one. Man, weird. All right. Well, there's been other big baseball news, but you know, it's been kind of bad news and there's plenty of bad news to go around. I mean, there was a Juan De Franco development and some closure in one of his legal cases at least. And seems like he was not punished too harshly

given the severity of what happened here. He was found guilty of soliciting having a improper sexual relationship with a minor, but he will not be imprisoned for that unless he does it again. He is just on probation for, what, five years, and then there's a two-year suspended sentence. So he could escape jail time altogether, although he has a separate case pending for a firearms incident, so that's still hanging over his head. The mother of the girl in the relationship got 10 years for trafficking, which sounds strange,

the imbalance there, not that that's not all so bad, but look, this is another country and another legal system and I heart to weigh the particulars of that, but he is guilty of that crime and it's a bad crime regardless of the punishment. And so the baseball implications, he's not going to be back in baseball. You might have thought, oh, well, he won't be literally in prison, so perhaps that clears a path. But A, it would be hard for him to get a visa, come back to this country. And even if he managed that, one would think that now that these legal proceedings

have concluded that MLB will impose its own, one would imagine, like the hefty suspension. And so he will be on the ineligible list. You know, he has been for years now, he has not been paid as this has been playing out through the courts and the DR. And just, you know, you would think that the raise either they would be able to void the contract because of this, some sort of morals clause situation, or if

he can't come to this country, then they won't have to pay him. Right. If he can't get a visa. Yeah. And you know, even if he's able to come back at some point and his suspension is finished, whatever MLB imposes here, I guess maybe there could be some buyout down the road, who knows, but he will not be playing for that team again. I don't think it's going out on the limb to say. And even if and when he is available to any other team, be a pretty tough sell to the fan base

to sign Wanderfrocko despite his talent and his relative youth even after he serves his time here. Not only will he not have played for a long time professionally or at a high level, but also this will be on his record. So I'm sorry that the talent was squandered, that what seemed like such a promising career turned out not to be one, but ultimately the baseball implications of this are relevant and yet somewhat lesser in the grand scheme of things.

Yeah. I was thinking, I was like, what do I want to say about this? And so often our response to these things has to be informed by a failure on the league's part, right? To take something seriously that we feel ought to be to impose penalties that we feel are sufficient. We obviously haven't gotten to the sort of penalty phase of it from an MLB perspective yet, but I tend to agree with you, even in an environment where some of this stuff seems more up for debate than we might want.

I struggle to believe that he will have the option to play an affiliated ball in the States ever again. And I think that the inability to procure a visa is probably just gonna make it enough of a non-starter to begin with that it doesn't really, you don't even have to get to the, how do we wring our hands such that we can justify signing this sexual predator? You don't have to say alleged anymore, right?

He's been convicted. You know, I just don't think that it even progresses to that point because I struggle to believe he's going to be able to regain entry to the United States. So it's just, I hope that this young girl is getting support. She's been failed at multiple junctures and by her closest intimate. So I hope that she has some help and resource to weather this. But yeah, gnarly case and to your point, not his only legal misadventure in the last little while here. Jared Ranere Yeah. The absence of a conviction is not exoneration, even though there is often confusion on that point. And it hasn't always been

disqualifying, but the presence of a conviction for sexual abuse, especially sexual abuse of this nature, one would think that that will be disqualifying despite the talent. Yeah, I would imagine so. The other little piece of news here, which is not nearly of the same gravity, but more of the amusing variety and more of the nepo baby brand of noose. But this was not surprising, right? This was, this was easily anticipated, but the Rockies, their cleaning house, you know, there's a new boss in town, new sheriff, and his last name just by coincidence happens to be Montfort. Yeah.

But you know, don't read anything into that. It just so happens that he was the most qualified candidate for the role of Rocky's president and their long time outgoing president and CEO is stepping down at the end of the year. And Walker Montfort, the oldest son of team owner, Dick Montfort, is ascending to the role named executive vice president of the Rockies. And of course, he is not the only Montfort's son to be an executive for the Rockies. They're pro scouting

director, also a different Montfort. So, you know, just it's nice that it turned out that way, that it could remain a family affair and that the best qualified candidates just happened to share a bloodline with Dick. And you know, look, he's been in the organization a long time. I don't know whether that's a good thing or a bad thing when it comes to the Rockies, but he is well-versed in the way that the Rockies do things for better or worse. And so smooth transition one would imagine.

Yeah. So, you know, he's served his like indentured servitude as a son of the owner who gets to sure it was really rough. Yeah. Try his hand in various departments and get a good grounding in the Rockies, you know, started from the ground up, worked his way up from the entry level to the top, and congrats to Walker and to Dick and all the Monforts. It's such an interesting thing because, I mean, I guess I do want to say I don't know

any of these guys. I do know people in the game who have like a positive opinion of Sterling Monfort, the pro scouting director. I don't know that they've really been able to actualize anything and it's not like they've blown anyone away with their returns and trades, but here we are with Sterling. It's an odd thing because I think it's very obvious as we've talked about a lot over the years, that insularity is one of the problems really plaguing this franchise, that there is a lack of outside perspective and that they might really benefit from some new voices in that room. And they, at every opportunity, seem pretty eager to eschew that option and that route

and to stick with what they know, whether it's literal members of the family or just very long time members of the front office who end up kind of shifting around in various roles and all of a sudden, but Black's going to be your pitching coach and there's all of that stuff. And so I'm not a fan of that. I do wonder, and this isn't an excuse, because like, I think that money and title tend to be a way to get around this problem, but I do wonder like, what it would be like for them if they were trying to hire that role in a true open search, right? That they were

genuinely interested in bringing in someone with a different viewpoint, perhaps with experiences in the game away from Colorado. Like what kind of candidate pool would they be able to draw? There are only so many of those jobs, even in our era of title inflation and not being able to really know what a new one seniority is outside the POBO. But I was wondering about that the other day. I was like, you know,

there's sort of this group of more junior executives that I think, you know, every year kind of it's moved around a little bit. Some of those folks end up getting promoted within their own organizations as a means of keeping them. Some of them go out for these searches when there's a GM opening, you know, who's sitting there chomping at the bit to run the Rockies. I don't know. There are only 30 of those jobs. So somebody presumably, and we've talked about how for the right person, you know, maybe you look at this as like this incredible, exciting challenge, right?

How do I bring winning baseball to Colorado? You know, how do I overcome this deficit that we deal with that isn't about Neppo babies and isn't about resourcing and isn't about anything else, but the fact that we play on the moon, like how do we counter that? And I don't know, I don't know what the answer to that would be.

I also, you know, it's perhaps testament to the grim nature of sports ownership these days that like there is part of me that wished the like family operation had some better representatives, right? Because there is something a little bit nice about it being this personal thing that isn't about, you know, the Fenway sports group or whatever the f***. And we're thin on the ground with those now. When it used to be the dominant model, but the scions of some of those organizations are dying or stepping down and often that precipitates a sale rather than the promotion of, you know, one of the

owner's kids, which I'm not saying that like nepotism is like a good thing to be clear, but it is just, you know, private equity makes you yearn for weird I guess is the takeaway from this little tangent where I'm like, Oh, you know, it'll be okay if a couple of these were like a true family business and they were baseball people and it got passed down generation to generation. What a funny world. That doesn't mean that the owner's kid has to be like the top person in charge, right? You can presumably have a mix of both where you have a true genuine interest for the best outside talent that you can find.

And then there's also a role for your family in it. But yeah, it's just a funny thing to kind of sort through. Bring the VEX back to the big leagues. That's what we need. Yeah, that's definitely, yeah. Bring the buses back. Just save the buses. That's what we need. Yeah, that's definitely, yeah. Bring the buses back. Just save the buses. We don't want more.

I think the buses are doing just fine. The buses are about to get a big, big check. I think they're doing okay. Yeah, the funny quote from Monfort was about his son, Walker. He offers a fresh forward-looking mindset and we're confident his perspective, experience, and leadership will benefit the club

in the months and years to come. I mean, he might, but it doesn't exactly send the signal that we're turning the page, as Montfort says here, to your next chapter when your next chapter is your son who's been in the organization for a really long time. I have some sympathy on some level for the Nepo babies because they've had it good in a lot of respects because they've had it good in a lot of respects and they've had it easier in a lot of respects, but there is that one way in which they've had it harder, which is that people put pressure on them or expect a lot of them or just discount their actual qualifications and accomplishments.

And there are a lot of good NEPO babies. There are NEPO babies who are better than their progenitors. There are some of them who would be entitled to have earned their place on their own and they can never quite prove that they would have made it on their own, no matter how skilled and accomplished they are. You just never know if they would have made it

without having that head start. And I think the most endearing of them cop to that and acknowledge that while still knowing that, yeah, you know, it sort of stinks if you're good at what you do that people always say, oh, Neppo baby, Neppo baby, I get that. But also you kind of have to like who doesn't like Jack Quaid? We all like Jack Quaid. Sure. And, you know, he's very relatable about the whole thing, I think. More so than his mom. Even if we can't really relate. Yeah. So, you know, I quite enjoy his work. I'm glad that he had a perhaps an easier time getting seen or whatever.

I mean, I don't know about that part, but yeah. The rest of it, sure. Maybe, I guess. I'm happy that I can enjoy his performances one way or another, but, and sometimes the very Nepo baby being can help qualify you for something because you had a helping hand, you know, like maybe you can be more qualified for a baseball executive position because you've been able to be a baseball executive your entire life. Like maybe that has actually helped you get good at that job because you just got to do that from day one

when someone else might not have gotten that opportunity. So yeah, you never know. An Apple baby could be good. Maybe Walker Monfort will save the Rockies and Sterling, he will have a Sterling record. And together the Monfort brothers will actually offer a fresh forward looking mindset. The optics of it are never the best really. If the knock on your organization has been that you're too loyal or too set in your ways, then promote two of your sons. Although Dick Monfort's hardly alone here and you know, can I say that I would not do the same? I'd like to say that I would not do the same, but if I owned a baseball team

and I had offspring who wanted to work in baseball, would I be above? Would I be Warren Buffett saying, no, I'm not leaving you a fortune, you have to make your own or whatever. I don't know. Would I be able to harden my heart and say this will be better for them in the long run? Or will I say I want to make my kid happy?

Who knows? I probably will not find myself in quite the same situation. Yeah. I mean, look, I also enjoy Wyatt Russell's work. Are we going to get more Monarch Legacy of Monsters? Yes, I think so. Okay, I'm glad. I liked it.

That's a rec for me to everybody. Monarch Legacy of Monsters. You like Godzilla? You're gonna like that. You're gonna enjoy that. But yeah, like I'm not saying that every one of these guys or gals is unqualified. You know, people's objection comes

to the advantage piece of it. And there are ones that are not good. Like, are we all still pretending Gracie Abrams is talented? Or at least this talented? We don't need to do that. We can let that go. JJ won't know, man. He's not going to come lens flare you. Just let it go. It doesn't matter. I have no opinion, but it would not take much for Gracie to surpass JJ in my book. Oh, I love this tape. My goodness, we might have to do a holding JJ Abrams accountable for what he has wrought. Yes, I'm there for that.

But we talk about this in the context of baseball players and so many big leaguers. So yeah, it helps sometimes to have that training and that advantage, obviously. But that doesn't mean that you're not qualified to be a big leaguer, because sports are not a perfect meritocracy, certainly. And there are sons of big leaguers who get drafted as a courtesy

and they have an opportunity that someone else might not, or they might be more likely to be promoted with the same performance as someone else. But generally, if you do make the big leagues and have a long career there, you have to earn your spot, at least in this era. Yeah, and you know, the shortening of the draft has curbed some of those courtesy draft pick instincts, right? Because the resource is more precious than it necessarily used to be. But yeah, I think I'm just always struck by like, sure, you want to work in baseball, fine. It is interesting to not have the desire to like strike out on your own, at

least to a different team. Like there are sons of big leaguers who are working in front offices and they are well regarded and have been promoted. And, you know, people think that they do really good work. working in front offices and they are well regarded and have been promoted and you know people think that they do really good work I've never heard anyone say anything bad about Preston Mattingly you know but yeah just to avoid the snide comments that we're making right now yeah just strike out a little bit right like I think that when it's literally your father's team it's just

hard to create that distance. And when I worked at Goldman, Lloyd Blankfein's son was in my analyst class. And I was just like, you want to stay in finance? Sure, I guess. But like, you don't want to go. I guess it would probably be a story if he'd been like, I'm going to work, go work at JP Morgan. But it's like, you really want to be the CEO's kid? Like, and he was a nice guy. I didn't have any, like, I didn't know him very well, but I was just like, this is, it feels like you're putting yourself in a position where you're just never going to be able to escape scrutiny.

And maybe you're comfortable with that. Maybe it's fine, but it is just an odd thing, particularly when it is like one of the primary knocks against the way your dad does business within the con. Here, I'm talking about the Montforts again. You know, it's like people have been saying for years and years that what the Rockies need is fresh perspective, outside voices, someone to shake up the organization and bring best practices from teams that have had greater recent success to bear on the challenges that Colorado faces.

And so it's just like, this is the thing people say is most wrong with your org. You don't wanna go somewhere else, try somewhere else? So anyway, I was worried that Anna Sawai would be like too famous to do more of Monarch Legacy of Monsters. Maybe she is, is she involved in the second season? This is now Meg finding out about Monarch Legacy of Monsters. Maybe she is. Is she involved in the second season? This is now Meg finding out about Monarch Legacy of Monsters.

Yes, I think they have filmed season two, or at least I saw some notice that that was the case. But... Okay. Well, I don't know if you know this, but we are poised at this moment at the exact halfway point of the regular season. Ooh, oh. Yeah, there have been 1,213 games played of a scheduled 2,430.

So we are 49.92% of the way through the season, which means that we are about to embark on the second half as it is universally defined and referred to. Yep. Yeah, second half everyone knows. Yeah, no controversy there. Yes, we all know we refer to exactly the same thing when we use that term. Yep.

And so this is a decent time to take stock of the standings and of players who have outperformed and underperformed. And by the time people hear this, we will have passed the halfway point. But while we are here right now suspended in this space, I did a little spreadsheet work to just see where things stand and compared some preseason projections to some actual results thus far, none of which I suppose will be all that surprising if you've been following this season and this podcast, but would have been surprising if I had told them to you a few months ago when we were studying those preseason projections. So I have compared the preseason projected win totals for teams to the win totals that teams are currently on pace for. So not what they're projected to

finish at, but just on pace, just pure extrapolation of their current winning percentage over the rest of the schedule. And I did the same for hitters and pitchers. So anyone who had a preseason projection in the FanGraph's depth charts, which is generally several hundred hitters and several hundred pitchers, I compared that to the on-pace extrapolated quote unquote projections, not really projections, but just what they're on pace for given the percentage of games that they have played thus far and just look to see how far ahead of or behind the pace teams and players are. So the teams that are most ahead of their preseason projections might not be the most obvious. You know, like, okay, the Tigers

have exceeded expectations. Sure. We have talked about that. And they are third on the list. They are 13 and a half games ahead of their projected preseason total. I know that we don't really have fractional wins when it comes to these things, but in projections we do and extrapolations. So the Tigers preseason playoff odds projection was 87.3 wins. They are 51 and 31 as we speak here on Friday afternoon. That's 622 almost winning percentage. They're on pace for, if we round up 101 wins, if we don't, 100 wins. And so they're, yeah, 13 and a half wins ahead of their precincts and projection.

Okay, well, they've gotten plenty of acclaim for that because they are in a solid position in the AL Central. One might even say they're running away with things. They're tied for the best record in baseball as we speak with the Dodgers. But the teams that are actually ahead of their preseason pace by the most, a little less sung, the Angels.

The Angels preseason projection of 66, currently 40 and 40 on pace for 81, obviously, that's 15 wins ahead of their pace. And we briefly talked about them and Joe Adele last time and I expressed some skepticism about the sustainability of this pace, but hey, half a season and the angels are at least by this metric, the greatest positive surprise. And how often have the angels been a pleasant surprise in recent seasons? So that's something.

Yeah. I mean, good for them. It's like you said, we expressed doubts about the sustainability. I think that that doubt is well founded, but also, you know, like banked wins are banked wins. And so much of modern baseball is us just begging, begging teams to give their fans like a nice thing to watch, even if it doesn't result in a playoff worth, like just give people competitive baseball to watch, why don't you? And so by that measure, they have succeeded, or at least done so so far, not something.

That is something. That is something. Yeah, okay. And we got an email the other day about an angel, Mike Trout, and about what we expected from him. Listener Brock said, just curious to hear what you two make of Trout's season thus far.

His overall output has been fine, but he is still well below his career BABIP. He is walking more than he has the past few seasons. His savant page is bright red. The percentiles, they're encouraging. His 100 plate appearance, rolling expected weighted on base had a brief dip earlier this month,

but is now above his career expected weighted on base average, not to mention his expected weighted on base for the season. So he even appears to be trending in the right direction of late. What's going on with our guy? Is he poised to look like vintage trout again in the second half? I suspect parentheses hope that he is.

I don't know. I just, yeah. I settle for health at this point. I settle for having at this point. Yes. I settle for having him on the field, which he is and has been for most of the season thus far, obviously with one extended absence, but I'm just happy to have him back. Right. And yeah, the numbers have ticked up lately. He strikes out a lot as he did in 2023,

as he did in 2021. He is also walking a fair amount still. And yeah, it seems like he's had bad, bad at ball luck. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. Like I think that if he kept hitting the ball the way that he has been hitting the ball,

that he would probably have better results. That's what I think. So yes, hopefully he can maintain the strong quality of contact and that that will be reflected on the field and that he will actually stay in the lineup long enough for that positive regression to occur. It's just so hard to know. First of all, we have to assume he's gonna stay healthy for what I am about to say to really make sense, but

let's make that assumption. Let's be optimistic that he'll stay healthy. He's missed so much time and has never, you know, since the injuries started to pile up, he hasn't really had an extended big-le league run where we have been able to gauge, here's the new baseline for Mike Trout. Here's what this version of Mike Trout's body is capable of doing. We just don't know. We haven't had enough of him on the other side of injury to be able to say, because every time we feel like we're getting close,

he just gets hurt again. So I don't rightly know. I hope that for his sake, he starts to enjoy results that are in better alignment with what his, you know, quality of contact and underlying metrics would suggest he should be getting. But I couldn't rightly say. I really couldn't. And I don't know. I think anyone who's telling you like, oh, I know who Mike Trout is as a player now is like kind of pulling your leg. Cause I don't know that Mike Trout knows the answer to that.

Right. The first few injury plagued years, he played pretty Trout-like when he was available. Well, 2020, he wasn't really hurt. That was just a shortened season and he played pretty well. At 2021, he played 36 games, but he had a 189 WRC+, so it was still okay. Well, if he could just stay healthy, then he'd still be trout. And even 2022, he played 119 games, 176 WRC+, six war.

Okay, that's still essentially the same guy. But the past few seasons, 2023 on, even when he has been available, he has not been that kind of player anymore. And so I assume that that ship has sailed, but if he could be at least what he was when healthy the last couple of seasons, which was like 130 something WRC plus, like well above average hitter at the very least.

I'd settle for that. I'd certainly sign up for that if he could have that kind of decline phase and just still be a pretty good hitter and just continue to stay in the lineup. That's what I hope for. So maybe we'll see, Hopefully that would help the Angels avoid the regression that I expect will be coming for them if they could get more out of Mike Trout in the second

half. Yeah, we'll see. Anyway, the subject line of that email was, is it time to talk Trout? I guess it was. Okay. It was. The second team that has exceeded its preseason projected pace by the most is the Tampa Bay Rays. Yeah. Yeah, the Tampa Bay Rays, things have looked up for them lately. They're on pace for 92 wins, which would be 14.4 ahead of their preseason projection. They're in second place in the East. Half a game. Half're in second place in the East. Half a game.

Half a game. Only half a game. Yeah, how about that? How about that, Ben? That happened fast. It did. You know? All of a sudden I looked up and I was like, those Yankees, they need to be a little worried,

I think. I think so. And MLB is discussing contingency plans and where will the Rays play if they make the playoffs and they advance in the playoffs and we have to not have those games played at a minor league park and we want bigger crowds and where could they go? And yeah, that might have seemed premature to even expect that to happen until fairly recently, but now it's looking quite realistic. Yeah, you have to plan these things. You need the contingency, even if they fall off or they get in on a wild card

and they don't have a guaranteed home series or something. Like you still, you just have to plan because you can't look up in September and be like, oh, where are we going to put these guys? Can't do that. That'd be a disaster. Yeah. And elsewhere in the Ale East, the fourth team on this list after the Tigers, the Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays tracking for 87 wins or so and projected 75.6, so they're double digits ahead of that pace. So they are roughly in playoff position, right? So they're in the thick of the wild card race. They are in possession of the second AL wild card behind the race right now. So yeah, that's encouraging too. The expectations at least per the depth charts projections were not particularly high, but for a team that has consistently fallen short of hopes and expectations, it'd be nice if they could exceed them for once. It is so funny because we came into the year, and I think we were largely in agreement with

the projections at the site, like we came into the year thinking that the AL East would be the most competitive division in baseball, maybe tied with the NL West, but largely one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, certainly the best division in the American league. And I think that we thought it would be Yankees that the Red Sox would factor heavily that the Blue Jays and Orioles might be able to make their way. I remain skeptical of the Orioles because apparently I'm like contractually obligated to have skepticism about them as a fan grass employee. And you know, it's kind of rounding into form. It's not the exact composition that I was expecting.

I thought that this might be a down year for Tampa Bay, not as down as I thought the Orioles would be. And I didn't think the Orioles would be as bad as they are. But it's kind of shaping up in a way, you know? There's competitive baseball being played there. It's not just the Yankees anymore. The fifth team is actually the Dodgers, who are on pace for 100 or 101 wins, same as the Tigers.

And that would have been a disappointment per some projections and expectations. Baseball prospectus, Pocoto, was certainly super high on them. But Fangraph's projections were not quite as high. They were projected for 92.3 wins from the preseason playoff odds. And so they have actually exceeded that pace, even though

there's this perception that, oh, they're going to challenge for greatest team of all time. And clearly that hasn't happened. They've put some separation between them and their rivals in that division. They've got six games of breathing room right now, but obviously some individual players who have not delivered the way that they were expected to and the team as a whole, yeah, it hasn't gone quite as swimmingly as it seemed like it could. It's far from the best case scenario, but it is actually ahead of where they were projected to be.

Yeah. I think that their preseason projection is just useful if you're ever having a conversation with someone about the kind of conservative nature of projections, even for very good teams, because the Dodgers had, if I remember correctly, I can't remember, I think it was them ahead of the Braves even, like them in Atlanta were the only, I think the only clubs that were projected to were the only, I think the only clubs that were projected to surpass even 90 wins for us in the preseason playoff odds. We had just a very dense middle in terms of the site. So yeah, it's so funny because you're right, people were like, they're going to, I keep

getting this MLB network promo. You get these promos where they're like, it's like extolling the virtues of each team. It's like, oh, you're never going to believe the Mariners are. First of all, they got to recut some of these because some of them are out of date. They are not reflecting reality. But you know, there's a moment in there. I think it might be from the Fox postseason broadcast after the Dodgers won. They're in line for, I think they say like four or five World Series in a row. And I'm like, what on earth are you all even talking about? But that was the way that the team was thought of

coming into the year, just cause they had made all these additions. And anyway, it's just a funny thing how it all works out. It is. Okay. And then the next teams after that, the Cardinals, eight wins ahead, the Phillies, seven wins ahead, which sort of surprised me, but their preseason projection a little more pedestrian than I would have expected.

The Giants, just six or so games ahead. The Cubs, five and a half. And then the Mets, another five round out the top 10. And then the bottom teams, no surprises. We've talked about these teams plenty to no end this season. The aforementioned Colorado Rockies at the bottom of the list, even though they were projected for 61.8 wins, they are in fact on pace for 36. And I know Things have looked up lately. I know. June has been relatively kind to them, but.

Doesn't that make you depressed though? It does. That's things looking up. Yeah. It's almost worse really. Like I don't wanna, we had somebody cancel their Patreon subscription cause they were like, I'm a Rockies fan,

I just don't like baseball anymore. And I was like, I cannot blame you for this position. Like you be well, you know, I hope you find your way back to the game in a way that's satisfying to you. But for that to be an upswing, my God, just. That's fine though, because you know, the Montforts, they're on it.

Yeah, it was such a slow start that I was like, okay, I'm going to double their win total now. And because we're halfway through the season and then maybe it'll start to look sort of respectable. No, it's still 36. That's 36. So bad, so, so bad. But if they just keep playing at their June pace,

then maybe they'll end up where they were supposed to be all along and we'll look back and laugh. But they are about 26 wins behind their projected pace. So they're more than 10 wins worse on that score than any other team. The Orioles are 16 behind their projected pace. The Braves are 15 behind. And then the Royals, things have been rough

for the Royals lately. They're about 10 and a half behind. So they were projected to be very much in the thick of contention, 86.5 preseason projected wins. And now they are on pace for 76. And the poor pirates, they were optimistically projected for 72.3 and they're on pace for 63. Then your Mariners,

they're about eight wins behind the projection. Your Diamondbacks, about seven wins behind. Your A's, sort of, to some extent. All right. Look. One prediction. You can only saddle me with so much, you know? They're about six, seven wins behind.

White Sox, six behind. Nationals, five behind. Everyone else is just kind of in the middle, you know, three to four wins or fewer away from what they were expected to be. All right. Let's give you the individual player projection disparities here. So the number one over performer who is 5.7 war ahead of his preseason projection is no surprise probably Cal Raleigh. Now it always impresses me when the guy who is over performed the most had one of the best projections to begin with. Yeah, it's fun. That's a lot of fun.

He was projected for 5.2 war. That's really good. That was one of the highest figures and yet He has still surpassed that projection by more than anyone else has so he's on pace For 10.9 war which would be absolutely preposterous for a catcher But yeah number two on the list is of course his closest competitor for the AL MVP Number two on the list is of course his closest competitor for the AL MVP award and that is Aaron Judge who had the best projection when the season started, 7.2 war and still is on pace to surpass that by fully 5.2 wins with a 12.4 war season. So two of the best players in baseball who have leveled up and just found a new gear.

So that's pretty impressive. Then third guy was not projected to be a superstar, but has played like one Andy Pahes of the Dodgers. He was projected for 0.7 war and is on pace for 5.8. So that is a five win over performance. And that's really encouraging for the Dodgers because I think we said earlier this year that as great as their aging superstars were,

their veterans, they did at some point need to start to really work in the next generation and find playing time for those guys and help them break in. And Paez has done that for them. And he's, gosh, he just showed off his arm doubling off of Rocky's just game ending. He cannot lose a game that way. It's horrible. Yeah, the Rockies have lost every which way, but that was a bad one. But That's horrible. Yeah, the Rockies have lost every which way,

but that was a bad one. But he's got some skills and patience has not really been one of them. Like he's not walking. Zach Chrysler just wrote about that for the bandwagon that he's had one of the best walkless months ever on record. And it's good to have some walks

because that just balances things out. You can't always count on the batted ball, good fortune. And so it's nice when you have a baseline of taking some free bases. And he hasn't really done that, but he's not a huge strikeout guy. And you know, the power has been there and he's given them good defense and just, you know, like the rare early or mid 20 something to be a staple and big contributor to that team. So Andy Pius, Pete Kroh Armstrong, of course, is next on the list, about a five war over performance.

Jeremy Pena, who we mentioned at one point fairly recently, but you know, hadn't gotten a lot of press until fairly recently. I know he just got a fan graphs post on this very subject, but he is making good belatedly on some of that early prospect rookie potential. He's on pace for an eight war season and 4.4 ahead of what he was projected to accomplish. And Carlos Narvaez of the Red Sox. He's next on all of the sung Red Sox rookies

who have debuted. He's the one sort of unsung, less highly touted, who has been the most productive to this point and is on pace for almost a five-war season, which is about four war more than was expected for him. Yeah, it's been quite a showing. And then Zach McHenry, of course, powering that Tigers over performance, projected for

point seven war on pace for four point five, so four war ahead and a guy who might not have even gotten a chance if it hadn't been for other absences and here he is James would who was a Universal breakout pick and I took some objection to that because I thought it was just a gimme It was too obvious and he was good as a rookie But I guess some vindication for the breakout pickers is that not only did he have a strong projection to begin with, like he was projected to be a 3.1 war guy, well above average player, but he is 3.5 war ahead of that pace. He's on pace for like a seven war season.

So if you specified that you thought that James would have an MVP caliber campaign, then okay, I'm going to give that to you. I don't know that you need to allow it because that's not what they meant, Ben. They didn't mean it like that at all. Maybe not, but I try to give people the benefit of the doubt. Sometimes he has been excellent. Now the next guy on the list was a little less predictable. Ernie Clement.

Ernie Clement was projected for 1.6 war. He's on pace for 5.1. So he's overshooting that by 3.4. That's pretty impressive. I guess that's part of powering the Blue Jays to that total we talked about earlier. Byron Buxton is next. We highlighted his highlights the other day.

He's about three war ahead of his projected pace. Amazing. Drake Baldwin of the Braves is next on the list. He was projected for 0.9 war and is on pace for four. Some of these, it's not necessarily that they were projected to be bad. It's that they were projected not to play very much. And then they were good

and they got more playing time than expected. So there are multiple ways that one could outperform expectations. Next, another Blue Jay, Addison Barger, who was projected to be basically replacement level. And he's on pace for a three war year. I like that there's some variety here. You have like superstars who have been even superstarier than expected and then you have people who

weren't expected to play and have been present and pretty good and people who were projected to not be very good at all and have been pretty good. Like you can be just above average instead of replacement level and that's gonna get you toward the top of this list. Just multiple paths one can take. Right, there are a lot of ways to be a good baseball player and a lot of ways to stink. And hey, here's a Rocky on this list.

How about that? Hunter Goodman of the Rockies. He has in fact been good. Man, he's been 0.4 Warwis's projection, 3.5 pace. So he's a full three wins ahead of his pace. How about that? And above average Rocky. The Rockies have to have an all-star, right? So Hunter Goodman, maybe it's you.

Maybe you're the good man. Could be. Corbin Carroll is next. We talked about his injury the other day. Dylan Dingler, who has been part of that Tiger's performance. It's like, you know, Zach McKinstry, Dylan Dingler. These are the guys who've been part of this Tiger surge. And Will Smith of the Dodgers.

Another Blue Jay, Tyler Heineman, just lots of Blue Jays representation here. Ryan O'Hern, the rare Oriole who has exceeded expectations. He's like looking around like, not my fault guys. The rest of you keep up. I didn't do it. Yeah, maybe he'll find himself sent to some other team soon, perhaps. Another Tiger, Javi Baez, whom we talked about earlier this year in his surprise bounce

back. Kyle Tucker of the Cubs, another player projected to be quite good, but has been even better. Jonathan Aranda of the race, who was a popular breakout pick and I think a justified one given his results thus far. Sedan Rafaella of the Red Sox. Isaac Collins of the Brewers. Trent Grisham of the Yankees. Cam Smith of the Astros. Shohei Otani.

How about Shohei sneaking in here with a 2.3 war over performance? And I guess I'll stop right around there. Jacob Wilson, same over performance. Pete Alonso, same over performance. And Kyle Stowers of the Marlins, formerly of the Orioles, makes the list. And then the other two or more war over performers, Sal Frelik of the Brewers, Eugenio Suarez of the Diamondbacks, we just saluted him the other day, Michael Garcia of the Royals, Jake Myers of the Astros, Daniel Schneeman of the Guardians, Ben Rice of the Yankees,

Matt Olsen of the Braves, Carson Kelly of the Cubs, and finally, Geraldo Perdomo of the Diamondbacks. Now, you gotta know the underperformers, of course, on the offensive side. The biggest underperformance, Yordan Alvarez of the Astros. Yeah, who has been absent a lot and was hampered by the injury that has kept him out of the lineup, even when he was in it and it wasn't really diagnosed. And so, yeah, Jordaan was projected for 5.6 and has been sub replacement level thus far. So that'll get you the bottom spot here on this list.

And then Michael Harris, the second of Atlanta, just not living up to the expectations and projections. Anthony Santander, funny, the Blue Jays have exceeded expectations. And the guy who has helped them do that is not really the big free agent signing. Or any of the big free agents, not really Scherzer, it's not really Santander, but yeah, he's down there. Luis Renjifo of the Angels, even though the Angels have exceeded expectations, Renjifo has not. Brenton Doyle of the Rockies,

one of the rare Rockies who was supposed to be good, but hasn't been. Michael Massey of the Royals, who has been quite bad because I saw him there and I was like, was he projected to be good? Not really, but he's been that bad, projected for two war and he's been negative 2.2. So that's not good.

Wazers. Lamont Wade Jr. now of the Angels, which tells you something I guess about how his season has gone. Andrew Vaughn now of the Brewers, same. Mark Vientos of the Mets. Christian Walker of the Astros, hasn't really lived up to the pre-agent hype. Brian Rokeo of the Guardians.

Heston Kirstad of the Orioles. Jack Peterson of the Rangers. And I guess I'll give you the three or more war underperformers here just reeling them off. JJ Bleday of the A's. Tristan Kassas of the Red Sox, Jonathan India of the Royals, a signing that I praised hasn't worked out so well. Andres Jimenez of the Blue Jays, a rare blue J who shows up here toward the bottom of the list.

Leoty Tavares of the Mariners. Formerly. Yeah, formerly. Yeah. Louise Robert Jr. of the White Sox, Lane Thomas of the Guardians, Kaber Uwees of the Nationals, Royce Lewis of the Twins, Tyler O'Neill of the Orioles, Jake McCarthy of the Diamondbacks, Victor Robles of the Mariners, and Christian Campbell, Red Sox, Corey Seeger, Rangers, Yiner Diaz of the Astros rounding out the list. So let me see who is most dead on, who is like zero war removed from their projections, who is exactly lived up to or down to expectations, no more or no less.

The projected exactly correct based on their on pace club. Tyler Freeman, Nico Horner, Jorge Barrosa, Ryan Jeffers, Stuart Fairchild, Dustin Harris, Kyle Teal, Leo Ver Pagaro, Joanne Mankata, who was good for a while there. Yandy Diaz, Oscar Gonzalez, Jose Fermin, Griffin Konine, Dom Nunez,

Anand Rosario, Tucker Barnhart, Nick Fortes, and Hunter Fiduccia. Congrats to all of you. You have exactly done what you were projected to do thus far. So like a lot of guys with kind of mid-projections. Yeah, I guess so. Probably. And some guys who weren't projected to play that much probably and haven't played that much. So yeah, okay. All right, on the pitching side, the over-performing pitchers, Chris Bubich, number one. Man, he's been good. Didn't see that coming.

Neither did the projections. So he's on pace for almost six war, FanGraphs war season and was projected for 1.3. So despite the Royals not being so hot, Krish Bupich has been fantastic. Chad Patrick. Yeah. I talked about the Brewers rotation just all of a sudden really rounding into form and being good and Chad Patrick has been a big part of that. He's about three and a half wins ahead of his projection. The over performances here are not as big on the pitching side as they were on

the position player side because pitchers just kind of lower ceiling. Generally pitchers these days, they only pitch so much. Jesus Luzardo is next. Randy Rodriguez of the Giants, who also has been really, really good. Matthew Liberator of the Cardinals. Hunter Brown of the Astros. Mackenzie Gore of the Nationals. Logan Webb of the Giants.

That's an instance of thought he was gonna be good, has been even better. Right. And we'll leverage Ben, or no longer. We'll leverage Ben. We'll leverage Ben. Ben Casperius of the Dodgers shows up here. And then rounding up the top 10,

Will Warren of the Yankees, who was a beneficiary, I guess, of some other pitchers not getting playing time. And Will Warren has justified that rotation spot and actually is just ahead of Max Fried, who has more than held up his end of the bargain for the Yankees. And then lightning round here,

Andrew Abbott of the Reds, Jose Soriano, Angels, Jake Bird of the Rockies, another Rocky, nice to see. Robert Suarez of the Padres, Tyler McGill of the Mets, Hobie, Hobie Milner, one of the Hobies for the Rangers, Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks.

Yeah, he's been very good. Yeah, Nick Pivetta of the Padres and the last of the two or more war over performers, Jack Dreyer of the Dodgers, Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox, another knew he was good, but boy he's been even better. Yeah. And Phil Maton of the Cardinals. Okay. On the downside among the pitchers, let's see who is at the bottom of this list.

Ah, well, not Cutter Crawford, but another Red Sox pitcher, Tanner Hauck. Yeah, man. Yeah, not good. Tanner Hauck projected to be pretty good. Three more preseason projection has been negative 2.2 thus far. Oof, yeah, that's not good.

Or I guess on pace, actually, let's see, his preseason projection of three war and he is on pace to be negative 0.8 war. So roughly a four win under performance. Yeah, geez. Yeah, and then the next guy on the list is mostly unavailability, Tyler Glasnell. Yeah.

He just hasn't really pitched much and was projected to be good, so. Yeah. Replacement level thus far. Bowden Francis of the Blue Jays. Yeah. Yeah, he looked good last year, not so good this year. Blake Snell, another case of mostly just not pitching.

Zach Galin of the Diamondbacks. Not a case of not pitching, but a case of not pitching well. Yeah. Really rough right before he's going to be a free agent. Not good. Not the platform year one wants. Roki Sasaki, which is a combination of not pitching and not pitching well and not pitching because of not pitching well and also maybe being hurt.

Zach Efflin of the Orioles, who seemed like a bright spot of that Orioles rotation, hasn't been right. Erin Nola of the Phillies, who has been hurt. Reynaldo Lopez of the Braves has been hurt. Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins, we've talked about plenty. Perhaps salvaging his season. Brandon Fatt of the Diamondbacks.

Justin Steele of the Cubs, he got hurt, of course. Nester Cortez got hurt. Brewers, George Kirby also got hurt. A lot of injuries on the pitchers list unsurprisingly. And the other two guys who unpaced to underperform by two and a half war or more, Corbin Burns, who's done for the year and Walker Buehler who Red Sox fans probably wish were done for the year at this point. It's been bad.

It's been bad lately. It's been bad. It's been bad lately. It's been bad. Yeah, all right. And then the most on target pitchers, let's see, there are a lot of them. There are too many even to list, but I will put this full spreadsheet online for people to peruse.

So those are the bright spots and also the dark spots of this season on an individual player performance level. But you know, it's been a fun season so far. They all are, I guess, when you're like us, but there's been some compelling record chases and just fantastic individual seasons and a bunch of teams that have been kind of disappointing,

but also some teams that have been surprisingly good. I mean, you could say that every season at the halfway point, but plenty of stuff that I'm excited to see the rest of the year. I guess it has more or less worked out that there are no super teams, no spectacular teams that are just amazing, which is kind of what we thought, and there has been a lot of clumping and compression. So, you know, we had that last year, we were projected to have that this year, and we're going to be reckoning with that for the rest of the season, presumably. Yeah, I would think so.

All right, well, that's our check-in on the regular season at the precise halfway point. And we will be with you throughout the second half and we will refer to it accurately here on Effectively Wild despite what the splits on various websites might say. And now perhaps we can wrap up with our What If Sports What If of the Week. And of course, we are sponsored yet again by our partners at What If Sports

who have gone to the trouble of creating special offers for Effectively Wild listeners, a special landing page on the website. Please land there so that they know that you heard about them on Effectively Wild and took advantage of this partnership, a special offer for Effectively Wild listeners and anyone who stumbles across this URL,

despite not being an Effectively Wild listener. I guess there's no test. There should be some sort of test here when you sign up for this special offer, you have to prove that you're an Effectively Wild listener. But no, I guess it's open to anyone who goes to whatifsports.com slash Effectively Wild and clicks the link to get a $1 first season.

How could someone not take advantage? It would be malpractice not to take advantage of a single dollar offer. Foolish. It would. It would be short-sighted, penny-wise, pound-foolish, not even penny-wise. You're barely saving pennies. It's just a single dollar here.

So you can't congratulate yourself on having saved a dollar. What does a dollar even buy these days? Well, it buys a first season of either hardball dynasty or sim league baseball, courtesy of what if sports where you can construct your team, you can manage your franchise. You can try to engineer a dynasty. You can manage on the macro level. You can manage on the micro level.

You can set some lineups. You can draft, you can budget. You can come up with hypothetical teams of players from all different teams and eras just playing together and testing their medals. So whatifsports.com effectively wild. All right, so this week's what if of the week is actually a response to last week's sort of. So this comes to us from listener, Patreon supporter, James Bannell, who said, listening to the discussion

of changing baseball scoring to be more like fantasy baseball, which was the hypothetical we considered last week, got me thinking about how to articulate what's different philosophically, and I find myself pondering two dimensions. First, there are the different metrics where traditionally baseball uses runs.

You explored a good amount of the space around changing that up. Either adding more metrics or switching over entirely would certainly change the game. But the second dimension is where my interest peaked. Fantasy teammates don't know they are working together. I guess they don't even know that they're teammates. In baseball, if you get a hit and your teammate scores, that's an RBI for you and a run for your teammate. Not always, because how

can you not be pedantic about baseball, but no matter which metrics you choose, there's always going to be a strong correlation of performance on a team that knows it is a team. The real intrigue of fantasy sports, to my mind, is that we get to choose a bunch of people and make them work together, but they never know they are working together. So instead of changing the scoring in baseball to embrace the fantasy sports ethos, what if we instead highlighted the second dimension and made there be secret teams that the players don't know about? I had one idea about a way to implement this but believe the space is right for experimentation. My idea was to have the Commissioner of Baseball draft a fantasy team and keep the roster secret,

but after the completion of each day of games, publish the scoring components for their Secret team. E.g. the Secret team scored 30 runs, got 40 strikeouts, walked 13 times, etc. and then allow fans to submit guesses of the roster of the team like a deranged logic puzzle crossed with a March Madness bracket exercise. Maybe there's a prize for the first ex-fans who submit correct rosters. Maybe the fan gets to choose a team to receive some kind of in-season boon to use. Maybe the commissioner will help the fan fulfill some fantasy. Who can say?

One of the reasons I've been a listener of Effectively Wild for many years is because of my love for how weird baseball can be. And I'm never surprised, but always pleased that every episode gives me something new and usually weird to think about. Thanks. Well, thanks to you, James, for giving us something new and weird to think about. So secret team that is perhaps gradually revealed

or perhaps never revealed. I like the idea of having to reverse engineer who's on the roster based on the stats. Like that would probably be a fun puzzle. I guess you could probably just have some sort of computer-based way to figure that out. So you wouldn't have to do it by hand and probably you could figure it out quite quickly because it's like what permutation of

performances like what roster would have produced this outcome this this spread of stats I don't know how many days and games you'd have to go before you could really narrow that down I would, I guess not that many, because, you know, at first, I guess you'd just have a bunch of people who went one for four or whatever. And maybe it would be tough to untangle, but I would guess pretty quick, but then I don't know.

Maybe there could be just like near infinite variations or ways that you could get to those statistical totals. So I don't actually know, but my gut feeling would be that you could narrow it down fairly quickly. Yeah, I think you'd be able to sort it out fairly quickly, and that would be a problem. Because you still need the results on the field to be what matters. And it's like, what if you're a pitcher and then you realize that the hitter you're pitching to is on your team? Like how do you navigate that? I don't know.

That would be a bit of a conflict of interest there. Bit of a moral hazard. You'd have to save it until the end. And then like, what's the point? Then what's the point, you know? Right. I guess, yeah, what is the point? That is often something we consider when it comes to these hypotheticals.

Because well, there is something like this that we talked to Emma Batchelari, I believe, about when it came to AUSL, the Athletes Unlimited Softball League, not the version of that that they're debuting, but the version where they would have a tournament and people would play on teams, but like would be graded on an individual level. So like you could be on a team, but ultimately you're kind of out for yourself to some extent. And I think we talked a little bit about what weird situations that cooks up if something benefits a particular player, but not the team so much. And so that is sort of a precedent for this, I guess. Although in that case, they're aware that they're out for themselves

despite playing on a team simultaneously. So in this case, if it's like a secret team, yeah, I don't know if, like, would you be motivated to win still? I guess it would be weird for like clubhouse harmony because ostensibly, nominally you're on a team, you're playing with the same people all the time and yet there's nothing at stake for you I guess in

the team's success but it feels like there just would be regardless. Like wouldn't you almost rebel against this team construction? Like okay maybe I'm on a secret team, but I am also on this team in a very real sense, like I'm playing with these guys every day. And unless it's revealed to you, if the team is revealed to you, then how does that change your mindset? Yeah. Right. It would really do a number on like your incentive structure. Like how would you on like your incentive structure. Like how would you navigate that? I think that it is a funny thing to just be like, the thing of it is we need the results on the field

to be what dictates whether or not some is going. You just want it to be unambiguous. You want people rowing in the correct direction, whatever their team needs them to do. It's a tricky thing. Right. Huh. Yeah, I'm trying to, cause wouldn't you form those bonds regardless?

Just, you would be in the same lineup with someone. You'd be traveling with them all the time. You'd be in the same clubhouse, in the same hotel. Like it'd be hard not to see yourself as part of that team. Are you wearing different uniforms and yet you're playing in the same game? Does everyone have their own individual uniform, like an all-star game aesthetic,

and your loyalties are torn, and you'd have players accused of being only out for themselves. It's, yeah, that would probably lead to some bitterness or bad blood. Like, I guess there's less of an emphasis on productive outs now than there used to be, because maybe there's a greater understanding that they weren't always productive, but you'd end up in some situations where it might make sense to advance a runner and give yourself up or something, but if you're out for your stats, then you're not going to be motivated to do that. And then, yeah, that seems thorny, seems tricky. How would you even watch?

Like, we'd all have to have, gosh, like, you'd have to have sort of a red zone system set up. Like with the baseball reference tool where you can input particular players and you can set your MLB TV just to switch to their plate appearances when they're up or they're pitching or whatever it is. I guess you'd kind of have to consume baseball that way. But what rooting interests would there be for fans really? Why would you feel invested in this artificial team's success? You wouldn't, I don't think you would.

Which is funny because people get so overly invested in their own fantasy teams to the point that they feel like they should tell you about them. And that seems- Perhaps excessively sometimes. Yeah. But in that case, the investment comes from your own agency in drafting that team. You put that team together, so you're testing your wits in a way.

Whereas in this case, why would you root for this kind of random assortment of players who were just grouped together, not through your doing or through the team's doing, but just by the commissioner, by random selection, by pulling names out of a hat. That just, it seems unsatisfying. Yeah, I don't think it would resonate really. Mm-hmm, okay. Well, we like the potential logic puzzle aspect of like trying to derive the rosters

based on the standings essentially. But beyond that, beyond that little math problem that might entertain us, yeah, it doesn't seem like this idea has a whole lot to recommend it as far as I can see. So all right, maybe we can just close with a quick bonus second hypothetical that came in while we were recording, which was from yet another Ben, which was your discussion on episode 2339 about the terrible sonic environment at the ballpark really resonated with me so much so that I am sending my first email, I get so frustrated having to endure the barrage of pointless loud noise and distractions when I just want to watch a game and talk to the people I'm with, I've had an idea for a while

and I'm curious if anything like this exists or how we could get teams to adopt it, a low tech promotional night at the ballpark. I love it. They could come up with the right branding along the lines of retro night or baseball unplugged. There would be no canned music and no sound effects, only live organ announcements and the chatter of the crowd and the crack of the bat. No screens except for the scoreboard and realistically probably ads.

No loud cheap content forced on us during every inning break. Maybe even banned smartphones in the stands. I'm kidding, though I do wish I could experience that. What do you think? I don't know how marketable it is, but personally, I would absolutely put this on my calendar at the start of the season.

How can we make this happen? I'm pretty sure that this has happened in some limited cases. I think that someone wrote in and I may have read just that there was precedent for this, certainly in the miners, that there have been like throwback nights, that kind of thing. And from what I remember, they weren't super popular or they didn't really resonate and maybe, maybe this sounds better than it is

and maybe we're used to the glitz and the glamor and we'd get there and it would be like quiet, too quiet. And so it would be weird in a way. I'm not saying we need to go cold turkey to be clear. I like having a PA. I don't mind some between innings games on the scoreboard or in the minors everywhere, you know. I'm fine with some whimsy and frivolity and some noise and music. It's just show some

restraint and don't bombard us and like risk hearing damage essentially. So that's where we are. I wouldn't really want the confiscating my phone, no thanks, I mean, first of all, how would you ever get it back? But beyond that hassle, sometimes that happens at a concert, right? Like they- You put it in a little pouch though. Yeah, you still keep it on your person.

They maybe request that you don't take photos or they do try to force you to put it into something and some people disobey. Like, you know, I don't want to be kept from my phone if I go to a ball game. I think there's something to that, like make you focus on the in-person experience and maybe it's more memorable to you

if you're not watching the entire concert through the screen of a smartphone, which I do resent sometimes. Like, sure, snap your pic and then put it away. I think we've talked about that on a bonus Patreon episode. We've ranted about that before. But yeah, don't confiscate my electronics,

but just moderate your use of electronics to some extent. Yeah. And that would be nice. You know, ballparks have always been a little loud. It's just the canned artificial electronic bombardment, the unstinting noise. Yeah, it's too much. Yeah, it's too much.

I think that some sort of throwback, and I think it would do well. I think people would enjoy that. And it's like, this is part of what I am always irked by at Diamondbacks games, because like the Diamondbacks have an organist. And I don't understand why if you employ Bobby Freeman, you have to have. DJ Rock, Wyler, Ben.

What the, what are we doing with that? They got all these DJs. They have one every game. They have like a rotation of folks who do it. I'm not trying to disrespect DJs. No, I don't know if I mind if I'm disrespecting DJs, but I'm not trying to disrespect DJs. Yeah, if DJs catch some strays, you might be okay with it. Yeah, I might be okay with it.

And it's not to say that there aren't talented DJs. I just think that there are a lot more DJs than there are talented DJs. So there's that. I just think that there are a lot more DJs than there are talented DJs. So there's that. But yeah, I like having the organ be more prominent. I know not every ballpark has an organist, but particularly when you do, you should have like that be at the center of it. And it's generally a mix. Like my sense is not that Dodger Stadium has a DJ. They play other music, but then they famously have an organist

who has like predictable cues. And that's cool. It's cool even on the broadcast. Yeah, I'd be into this. I think stripping out all canned sounds. You might miss some of it, but just take it down a notch. Take it down a few notches, maybe. Take it down a notch.

Just take it down a few notches. It doesn't have to be gone. It just has to be a little more mellow. Like, why is it so... Yeah, okay. We're pro retro night. And I guess what you said about DJs probably applies to every profession that there are more people doing it than are talented at doing it.

Certainly applies to podcasting. Oh, yeah. I mean... Not this podcast. Not this podcast. Not these podcasters. No. Some who shall not be named. It's just like we could make the mics more expensive.

It might be good. Okay, wanted to leave you with one more email. This is from listener Brett who writes, in recent episodes, you've been tracking "'how low Denzel Clark's OPS Plus "'and overall hitting skill can go and still be playable. "'The elite elite defense is incredible "'and I for one hope to see him continue

"'to push the limits of playability "'given the gulf between his offense and defense.'" However, there's a historic comp to Clark that you could talk about. Mark Blander. Blander is third all time in total zone runs behind much better hitters, Brooks Robinson, 105 OPS+, and Andrew Jones, 111 OPS+. Blander's career OPS+, was 68. Even Ozzie Smith, who is fourth all-time in total zone runs, had an 87 OPS+.

Clark's OPS+, to date, is 58, and Blander had five seasons below that number. He notably had a 56 OPS plus for the 1970 World Series winning Orioles while posting a 1.8 baseball reference war. So it seems like Blander is the baseline that Clark must meet, but I did my research while riding the train and don't have a stat head account. Are there better comps? No, I don't think there are.

I think Brett has nailed it. I do have a stat head account. And if I search for players with an OPS plus of 70 or below and a wins above replacement career total of 20 or more. So a guy who had an actual career and was productive for a while. There are only five of them. There are two early 20th century players, Lee Tannehill and George McBride. There are a couple 90s short stops, Ozzy Guillen and Ray Sanchez. And then there's the earlier shortstop, Mark Blander. And Blander is an outlier, even in this group,

because those other four have about 100 or 100 something career fielding runs above average. Blander's at 241, and so his war is double all of those other guys who just barely clear that 20-war bar. He's at 41-war. He was a really good player who played 18 years in the big leagues for a lot of good teams.

That's how good his glove was, both by reputation, eight gold gloves, and according to the best stats that we have. But when we last talked about Clark, I think he was at a 28 WRC+, so that's Bill Bergen territory. No one has managed to have a long and productive valuable career while hitting that badly, unless they're a pitcher.

But Clark has pulled those offensive stats up a bit. He actually took Tarek Skupeldeep to centerfields in Detroit. So it's a little less extreme a proposition if he has a 50 something OPS plus than if he has a 20 something OPS plus. But yeah, Belanger would be the best case scenario if he's that bad a hitter, which I don't really think he will be. But all five of those guys in that exclusive group that I mentioned earlier were short stops for what it's worth. So if he can't hit as well as Blander and be one of the best fielders of all time, then we're looking at a career where maybe he hangs on as a fourth outfielder. Defensive replacement, but can't be a long time starter who's actually good. There are plenty of examples of players who have hung on for a while despite not being able to hit a lick I mentioned Bill Bergen Rafael Belyard would be a pretty good more recent example

17 big league seasons 2500 played appearances 46 OPS plus It's just that he was almost perfectly replacement level according to baseball reference That's a little less exciting and also I think it's harder to get that kind of long-term playing time today while being that bad because if you are consistently replacement level you will be replaced. All right that will do it for today and for this week. Thanks as always for listening and special thanks to those of you who support the podcast on Patreon which you can do by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild. The following five listeners have already signed up and pledged some monthier yearly amount to help keep the podcast going, help us stay almost ad-free, and get themselves access to some perks.

I guess I can go back to saying ad-free now. No, almost, because this week's What If segment concluded our arrangement with What If Sports, which we thank them for, but now we return to being solely reliant on our Patreon supporters, including the following five. Zach Robinson, Nick Reed, Katie, Tim Peer & Boom, and Kerry Pucko, thanks to all of you. You can rate, review, and subscribe to Effectively Wild on iTunes and Spotify and other podcast platforms. If you are a Patreon supporter, you can contact us via the Patreon site.

Just send us a message and it will magically show up in our inboxes, denoted as a message from a Patreon supporter. If you're not one, you can still contact us, send us questions, comments, intro and outro themes via email at podcast at vangraphs.com. You can rate, review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on iTunes and Spotify and other podcast platforms.

You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash group slash effectively wild. You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at r slash effectively wild. And you can check the show notes at fan graphs or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today. One more thank you to Zachary Goldberg filling in again for Shane McKeon. We appreciate Zachary's editing and production assistance this week. We hope you have a wonderful weekend and we will be back to talk to you next week.

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