Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 235: Alex Rios’ Value/How the 2013 Pirates Were Built

Episode Date: July 1, 2013

Ben and Sam discuss their technical difficulties, Alex Rios’ trade value, and the origins of the surprisingly successful Pirates.

We are experiencing technical difficulties. Please stay tuned. Good morning and welcome to episode 235 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Perspectus. I am Ben Lindberg. Joining me, as always, is Sam Miller. How are you? How are you feeling? How's your health? Feeling quite poorly, thank you. And you're probably feeling even worse because our worst nightmare just came true. And you're probably feeling even worse because our worst nightmare just came true. I think we once decided that if we ever recorded a full episode and it didn't record for whatever reason, we would just quit.

We would just never do the show again because it would be that depressing. And that just happened. We just did a half-hour show, and I opened up the the recording and it was just me followed by long stretches of silence when sam was talking which is odd because normally it's just me followed by long stretches of near silence when i'm talking yeah so what's the plan here so i guess we'll just summarize what we talked about i feel like i don't i feel like i can't go through with like pretending that we didn't know talk about all this i just we can't repeat it's too bad we could do because i feel like it was a it was an above average episode you'll you'll just have to take our words for it i guess we can do it if you want we could do a quick recap and then

we could do my original topic which we we didn't do. Okay, sure. All right. Okay, so the quick recap. Very quick. We're doing it very quick, right? Yes. Quick recap. I brought up a few things from the weekend.

The first thing was that Johnny Giavitella is up again. We talked about him coming up for the Royals. He is up again, and I asked Sam what he would hit for the rest of the season. He had a three-hit night in his first night, and so my question was, what will he hit for the rest of the season, his minor league line in AAA? Not quick enough, Ben. But he's hit 320, 391, 464 in AAA, and in the majors he's hit 248, 276, 347 even after his three hit nights. So what will he hit for the rest of the season? You're recapping. We're not relitigating this question. We're recapping, Ben. So do you need me to take over the recap?

What did you say he would hit? I said something like 247, 315, 345. you say he would hit? I said something like 247, 315, 345. And we pivoted to the Chase Utley discussion about whether the Royals would be compounding their problems if they traded for Chase Utley, whether this is the further question of a GM pursuing his own job security at the expense of his team's future and well-being. Then I think we moved to Hugh Darvish and why Texas fans... You skipped, we talked about Glenn Per perkins uh we did talk about that's right we talked about glenn perkins and how glenn perkins has asked to pitch more and yet uh his manager has responded by uh giving him uh even larger leads to protect rather than tie games we talked

about the need for a statistic that would accurately capture a closer's performance in a tie game and why the pitcher win should be removed from relievers because nobody cares and it only stands in for the better statistic that we should have and that would otherwise incentivize a pitcher to want to pitch in these close games. Then we talked about Hugh Darvish's fastball, why he threw it more last night, apparently in response to having read bloggers and such complaining about him. We wondered why Texas fans and media have turned on Darvish, who has been tremendous, even though he hadn't won in seven games. And then I believe we got to the main topic, which was Alex Rios. We asked what it would cost to get Alex Rios, whether we believe that he is more prone to

ups and downs than other players, and if so, whether his current down makes him a less attractive trade candidate, and whether there is a decent comp for him in the past, whether Carlos Beltran's injury history made him a decent comp, which we both disputed, and then ultimately settled on something like two not great but name prospects might be a good return. Is that right? Yeah, just about. We forgot. We also struggled for a long time with Jim Bowden's name.

First going to senior field application engineer at Tannis' Technology, Bill Bowden, field application engineer at Tannis' Technology, Bill Bowden, and then moving slowly to football coach Bobby Bowden before detouring toward Indiana University head coach Bobby Knight and finally settling on Jim Bowden. That's it. All right. You probably wish that we did this every day. We just could summarize what we plan to talk about. All right.

So the topic that we are going to now talk about, which we haven't talked about, will be fresh in your ears, is going to be the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates, who have the best record in baseball halfway through the season. Almost my topic. I believe I saw an Elias note yesterday that no team has ever had this good a record through 81 games and finished below 500. through 81 games and finished below 500. Do you think that the Pirates are just the team to break this historical achievement, or are they in the clear?

I think they are in the clear on 500. Did you, have you figured out what they would have to go to finish at 513? Yeah, I'm pretty sure. Well, if they're 51 and 30 right now, I think they would have to go 30 and 50, 30 and 51. Good point. Yeah, that I don't think that's going to happen. So 30 and yeah, 30 and 51 would be I mean, that'd be a 60 win pace. That would make them Marlins bad slash Astros bad, basically. Which is conceivable, right? I mean, last year the Red Sox won 67 games. And the Red Sox were a preseason favorite in a lot of people's minds.

So it's not totally inconceivable, but it's probably like 1 in 300, maybe. Yeah. And yet, Pocota still sees them as a 500 team. Yeah. I mean, I think they have played a little bit over their heads. If you look at our adjusted standings report on BP, I think they're the third team in the division behind the Cardinals and the Reds. They've had a little bit of the 2012 Orioles thing going on

with one-run games and a really good bullpen and a couple of relievers who never give up runs ever um and jeff lock just jeff lock's whole season basically uh so they've they've had a little bit of that sort of thing in their in their corner their their pythag record is 46 and 35 which is the sixth best in the league yeah in baseball not in the league in baseball so they are both they they're by they are exceeding their pythag record by the most in baseball but they are also they have the sixth best run differential in baseball yeah uh so i think that they are not this good, but they're still pretty good. I guess they're better than...

I'm trying to pinpoint exactly why they're better than I expected them to be. I mean, I guess I figured they'd be close to 500 again, as they have been for the last couple seasons. I didn't really see a huge step forward coming. Did you think this would be the year that they challenge for a playoff spot? No. Yeah, neither did I. But they have, I guess.

Well, this is what I was going to ask originally. This is my question about the Pirates. If Random House came to you and said, write the book. We want you to write the extra 4% or whatever the book is going to be called about the Pittsburgh Pirates and their low payroll winning the World Series this year. I don't even know what they're – I don't know what philosophy you would identify for the Pirates. I don't know how to describe what the Pirates do that sets them apart. So do you think that they do something that sets them apart? Or, I mean, to be fair, this regime still hasn't had a 500 record. I mean, they will this year.

But is it way too early to start thinking about what their front office is doing right? And if it's not, then what is their front office doing right or slash different? I don't think it's too early, but you're right. It's kind of hard to pick out a narrative for their front office. It's not like they're the number one stats front office. I mean, I think they certainly pay a lot of attention to stats. I mean, since he took over, Neil Huntington has said a lot of, you know, statistically savvy things. You can find quotes from people saying, what, you know, what stats

do you look at for pitchers or whatever? And he'll cite all these fancy defensive independent stats. And they hired Dan Fox from BP and they've got some other Sabre guys. So clearly they are in tune with that sort of thing, but they haven't become known for it to the degree that the A's or the Rays or the Indians have, for example. And they've certainly built up a strong farm system, but they haven't really become known as a great scouting team, like a team that just has more scouts or better scouts than any other team. I guess it has something to do with the fact that they were one of the teams that took advantage of being able to spend a ton of money in the draft. So I think they spent the most in the draft over the last four years or so that you could spend a lot of money in the draft.

So there's that and i guess you're there is that but can you identify what role i mean who who currently producing for them falls under that umbrella alvarez uh yeah cole i guess cole's pitched like two games yes you know he's pitched what three games uh yeah uh so four games i think four games and he's been below average i mean like no look going to be super duper duper awesome for their future and it hasn't been nothing for them this year i mean that's good but they're not in first place because of garrett cole they were in first place before they pulled up garrett cole. Yeah. So, I mean, I guess there are savvy individual moves that you can pull out.

I mean, the Russell Martin signing, I liked a lot, and that's certainly gotten a lot of credit for their improvement. I guess there was, you know, like the A.J. Burnett trade seemed to be an undervalued guy at the time or a guy who wasn't highly valued at least, and he's kind of just returned to form. The A.J. Burnett trade seemed to be an undervalued guy at the time,

or a guy who wasn't highly valued at least, and he's kind of just returned to form since they traded for him. So that was a good move, I guess. I don't know, Wandy Rodriguez was a good move. They didn't give up. Hanrahan for Melanson. Yeah. So I don't know. I guess it's a combination of spending a lot in the draft

and then just supplementing with good moves, which is not really a great book pitch. It's just kind of, you know, they've done some good things. There's no real, this is the one thing that they do better than anyone else and that no one else has thought of, and they've taken advantage of this inefficiency or something. It's just kind of, you know, a collection of smart things, I guess, and maybe some lucky things, and that's how it's come about.

Yeah, it seems clear that a number of their guys are doing better than you would have expected. I mean, you noted the similarities between the Orioles last year. There's also some similarities between them and the A's where they're also playing better than you thought they would. I mean, they're legitimately playing well and you weren't sure that a lot of these guys were going to be that good. So that makes me wonder whether the... I mean, we don't know enough at this point.

But it makes me wonder whether this is going to ultimately be a coaching story and whether the Pirates in a few years, whether we might know the names of the Pirates coaches. And we might see some of their minor league instructors getting more prominent jobs with other teams, that sort of a thing. Because guys like Gabby Sanchez, Gabby Sanchez is hitting. Gabby Sanchez was not considered a very good prospect. He was considered a fluke rookie of the year candidate. And then he was absolutely depressingly miserable last year and um they they've got a pretty good performance out of him now maybe that's nothing maybe last year was the fluke but so i think being willing i think at least at least

one way or the other either they were willing to look at a guy they were willing to look at the guy and see uh past his lack of pedigree, the fact that he had performed at the major league level, and realize that that was a resource, or they were willing to fix him. One way or the other, they got something out of a guy that was pretty freely available. Yeah, I guess that makes sense. So maybe it is kind of buying low on guys or players that other teams had given up on. And I guess, I mean, Liriano kind of fits in that category.

Liriano fits and Burnett fits in that category. But then, well, I guess there are guys who they tried that with that it didn't really work so well. Yeah, like Snyder. And Jonathan Sanchez didn't really work so well um but yeah I guess that that could be that could be part of it uh yeah like I guess if you're the Pirates and you don't have a ton of money you kind of just go and take other teams leavings when you think that there's still some talent there uh and maybe those teams weren't in the position that they could give those players the time

to straighten themselves out. But you're the Pirates, so you're willing and able to do that. And I guess they've hit on a few of those guys, whether that's luck or, as you said, good smart talent evaluation or coaching or something. I'm not sure. Because, I mean, you could point to someone like, well, I was going to say Tabata,

but I guess he's actually been pretty good. He's been okay. And Alvarez. I mean, those are kind of guys who were their prospects who didn't immediately pan out, but sort of have now. And Neil Walker is another guy that they've developed well. So yeah, I guess that makes sense. And so maybe I wonder whether they'll pursue that strategy again at the deadline and take

some other team's unwanted player, or whether at this point now, since they're off to such a great start, they will actually go for a named player. When we did our original discussion of Alex Rios, your pick for, I guess, who he would be traded to or who should trade for him was the Pirates. I guess Rios would have been one of those guys before last season if they had traded for him when he was kind of at the depths of his career. Then they'd look even smarter now.

Yeah, I mean, it seems to me, and maybe Clint Barmas is valuable in ways that I don't notice, but it seems to me that they pretty clearly could upgrade at shortstop. And also that shortstop is pretty clearly the hardest place to upgrade, especially midseason. They're playing Jordy Mercer there now. Oh, well, that's an upgrade. Yeah, I guess so. Yeah, I mean, Barmas is a really good defender.

And I would think Mercer is probably not as good a hitter as he has shown so far. But yeah, that seems like an upgrade because it seemed like Barmas had gotten to the point over the last year or so where as good as his glove was, probably not worth playing anymore when you're hitting that poorly. Yeah. Okay, so good. So they don't need to worry about that i've they if they did it's not like they're it looks to me like probably the best shortstop that's playing for a non-contender and is not uh like pre-arb it's probably alexi ramirez who seems to be movable uh but you, there's not a lot there.

Even Alexi Ramirez isn't that good. Yes, right. The Melanson-Hanrahan deal, man. Yes. Like, this is, I don't, I mean, I'm surprised that every GM in baseball doesn't get fired for their bullpen moves. Not because they're bad,

but because they're so unpredictable and they can just look so weird like four months later. So Hanrahan – pirates get Hanrahan, who's this disaster of a relief conversion project. They turn him into a superstar. He gets better and better and better. They flip him for Melanson. Now, Melanson was proven closer. Red Sox arguably overpay for him to get him.

He's a disaster. They trade him for Hanrahan. Hanrahan's got 43 strikeouts and 4 walks. He's got, you know, he's allowed 4 runs all year. Did I say Hanrahan? You said, yes, you did. Melanson. I meant Melanson. And Hanrahan has got a

9.82 ERA. He fits into that group also, I guess, as a undervalued or devalued guy who had shown talent in the past. And maybe you could pick him up on the cheap. Yeah, yeah, right. Yeah, he does. He fits into that. But yeah, I mean, we're not what basically we're saying is that they've made some smart moves here and there. But there's not a cohesive narrative yet.

Yeah, I guess I'm going to I'm put I'm staking. what we're saying is that they've made some smart moves here and there, but there's not a cohesive narrative yet. Yeah. I guess. I'm going to, I'm put, I'm staking, I'm staking the coaching ground. I'm going to say that in a couple of years, it'll be easier to say and identify,

but I'm going to credit their coaches. So if any, if any beat writers start writing coach stories, I will, I will be retweeting and linking to them. Really get, I mean, with the Orioles, we got Showalter stories. We didn't so much get pitching coach stories.

Tell you what, we haven't got many Hurdle stories. No, we haven't. I kind of hope we don't. I hope that we skip the manager and just go to the coaches. I don't want to see people twist themselves around trying to give Clint Hurdle genius status now. Nothing against him. No, it's just the usual thing.

When a team outplays its expectations, the manager becomes a genius and vice versa, usually. Yeah. That was a fun show. expectations the the manager becomes a genius and and vice versa usually yeah so all right that was a fun show yeah it wasn't the show we originally did i'm sorry you guys didn't get to hear it but you got to hear this instead uh you missed you missed our you i in the recap we we forgot to mention that uh old people are still hung up about japanese yes yes that was during our during our doubting darvish discussion yeah i recounted an anecdote about an old person i know so who was not a rangers fan um so that didn't account for why people are doubting him anyway uh okay so

we're done uh sam had to talk even more than he planned to talk which I'm sorry about will you do me a favor Ben will you save the bad recording and at some point in the future it'll be like a special bonus that you'll just publish it and people can hear it'll be like Garfield without Garfield uh huh okay and they'll see how bad it would be

if I did a podcast on my own I want to hear it I'll send it to you if you want it. Yeah, I'll keep it. It'll be someday when the show comes to an end one way or another and people are desperate for more Effectively Wild, I'll release half an hour of me talking to no one. All right. Short week.

So send us some emails at podcast at baseballperspectives.com and we will get to them on Wednesday.