Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2386: GOATs and Goats

Episode Date: October 11, 2025

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley announce their playoff livestream plans and then break down Game 4 of the Phillies-Dodgers NLDS, including their musings on Orion Kerkering’s game-ending error and the events that preceded it, whether baseball would be better or worse without its tragic on-field figures, the Phillies’ future, and the intimidating Dodgers. Then, after […]

Hello, Fast, Past, Wild, Wild, Wild, Wild, Wild, Effectively, Wild, Effectively, Mile, Ohio, Hello, and welcome to episode 286 of Effectively Wild, a Fangraphs Baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Raleigh of Fangraphs, and I am joined by Ben Lindberg of the ringer.

Ben, how are you? I'm okay, and I have news. I have an answer to the question that's on everyone's mind. When are Ben and Meg doing their Patreon playoff live streams? It's a question on people's minds. One of many. Maybe not the foremost, but among some of our listeners, it's probably pretty close to the top.

When are they going to get what they paid for? Well, tentatively, one week, from when we are recording. So Friday, October 17th, we are planning to do the first of our playoff live streams. We don't yet know who will be playing or at what time. We know that there will be at least one game that day. So whatever the game is, or if there do end up being multiple games, then we'll decide and we'll follow up with additional details to our Patreon people via the Patreon messaging system. But you can circle that date on your calendar. And you can circle that date on your calendar. And if you are not signed up at the Ned Garver tier or above, then you have time

to do that. As long as you do that before the time we start streaming, then you can join the stream and you will get an update via email. And then you can just join the Patreon Discord group where you can listen along and chat along as we speak in there. Even more tentatively, we might do the second of the live streams one week after that, perhaps the 24th, which would be also a Friday and game one of the world series. We will nail that down as we get a little closer. But that's the general idea. So we haven't forgotten about it. You can speak normally now. And so we will have a little less baseball on our plates for better or worse. And we will stream about some of that baseball in a week or two weeks, 17th, possibly 24th. Stay tuned for

additional details. But sign up now if you want to be involved. I'm trying to adopt in this episode, like a very level tone. So, like, please join us for our fun and exciting Patreon bonus episodes. They may or may not in any way feature the Seattle Mariners. You are listening from the future. So you know the answer to that question. I don't know yet. And so I'm trying to be steady-eddy.

I'm trying to be level Linda. Because I can't be in a register that isn't that right now. It wouldn't be grounded in reality. I haven't sought me. We are recording on Friday afternoon. So you are very much on the edge of your seat. And we don't know what your mental state will be by the time this podcast is posted. But right now.

Look, it's going to be unwell regardless. Probably. We're going to be in a state. We're going to be in a state. the question is what flavor you know what is the disposition of our state we don't know that yet you know we just don't but i'm i'm gonna be unwell i wonder if the the playoffs should just be much shorter um for all of our sakes you know for like our hearts like the health of our hearts although maybe this is maybe this is heart healthy you know because it's like it's

really getting it's getting a workout you know it's being exercised high intensity training something like that so we don't know i don't know it's 1230 as we're recording right now and um i don't know who i'm going to be later what yeah what i'm going to be like i don't know well i hope for the best for you and thank you we won't talk too much about that game because because it hasn't happened yet, but it will have happened by the time people are hearing this. So don't you feel special and fancy knowing so much more than we do here stuck in the past? But one thing that we do know is that we will not be live streaming any Philadelphia Phillies games because there will be no more this year.

Look, I understand that we have a professional obligation to talk about the end of that game. Yeah. It feels unbecoming. You know, it feels on decorous. I am a little worried. I don't think the piece was mean. I am a little worried that our headline on that game was maybe like a little too mean. It's just like, it's been tickling the back of my brain.

But let's say this. I have come to have a new amount of respect for the other players on the Philadelphia Phillies in the wake of that game ending here. And I want to be clear, I don't have a feeling. of disregard for Orion Kirkering. I feel so bad for this young man. It is, it was devastating what happened. It was a just a total brain fart, a moment of panic.

Orion Kirkering, it seems like, has not always had like a great time throwing to bases. I know that after the game, Chris Woodward, the Dodgers first base code, made mention of that in some of his comments, but that they were still surprised that he did not throw to first to secure what would likely have been the sure out. I suppose we'll never know if

that timeline unfolds in a way that we are not so focused on a Ryan Kirkering today, but in the moment you were just like, no! And you could see so many people on the field. J.T. is J.T. Real Mojo is like gesturing toward first base. Even

if it had been a good throw, he wouldn't have gotten I'm at home. No, it's already an indelible image. It's become kind of a mean format, right? The overhead shot of Kirkering, retrieving the ball, as the runner is not even that far down the first baseline. Not even that far down the line. He had so much time.

Yeah, standing there, stride the plate, pointing clearly to first base. It's like, here's the moment where everything went wrong and could have gone differently. And, yeah, just like you, I was watching. I just admitted. a moan, just an audible, just, oh, just, I did not want it to end that way. It was such a good game and such a high-stakes moment and just any other way than that, really. And it's like Andy Pies had been like just garbage at the plate. The entire playoffs, he's been really just mired in this terrible slump.

And so I guess, like, you know, if the air, were not so bad we would be having a conversation about like Andy Pyes getting this moment of like redemption in a postseason that has been such a just a sea of disappointment for him but it you can't even get there

you know I can't fake that I can't get to a place where the focus should be on this triumphant moment for Andy Pyes it wasn't a triumphant moment for Andy Pyes Andy Pyes grounded into it out He had a weak comebacker to the pitcher. Yeah, no, we've discussed the convention of just mobbing the badder who produces the winning outcome, even if that winning outcome was just like a fielder's choice or, you know, just like nothing, right? Just there was an error.

He didn't do anything other than put the ball in play, which is something. And there is that old baseball maxim, you know, you put the ball and play, good things can happen or very bad things from the Phillies perspective. it's true. But generally, that's going to be a negative expected value outcome there, you know, producing that particular batted ball. And yet everyone is dogpiling and surrounding him and, you know, back slapping and butt slapping as if he had just hit a walk off Homer or something. And that's just, that's how it works in baseball. You, you celebrate the player who produced the precipitating event, even if, even if they didn't, weren't really response. I mean, they set, events in motion, but didn't do something that in normal circumstances you would actually congratulate them for. But that's just how it works in baseball. But it was so the visuals of poor Kirkering just standing there with his head down, hands on his knees, and the field is flooded with Dodgers, and just the contrast between the absolute

depths of dejection and euphoria. It was just heart-wrenching, really. He goes back out there, you know, the story that Gell wrote, he did a very good job, but it's just devastating. You know, it's like the moment is past, the clubhouse availability is over, and he just goes back out to the dugout. And, you know, they got to go get him to be like, it's time to go. You know, it's done now. But I got to say, what a, like, to a person, just everybody trying to lift this young guy up. you know and and this team is in a weird spot because you know and others have remarked on this

they have departing free agents they have a lot of aging players on their roster they've got holes to fill um they cannot i'm sorry they cannot go into 2026 with like nick castianos as a regular in the outfield like i doubt they will i mean there's no way yeah he can't it would be one thing if that defense were like inhabiting the same body as like a plus bat, but like the way, the bats that he was taking of course, like, I was like

they have to be done with him and then he immediately hits like an RVI double last night. I was like, all right, well, every now and again, he is famous for his timing, you know, that is one of the things about Cassie, but this, you know, this is going to be a club in in some degree of flux. And I don't think

that they need to do some of the stuff that the most sort of dejective of Philly's fans have been suggesting you tear it down to the total studs and everything. They still have a lot of good players on this team. But I think that the Phillies who take the field on an opening day

in 2026, you know, they're going to be new guys out there, hopefully, right? I think it also hits different because you don't, you can't just be like, hey, just run it back. Like, they can. If they want to be a competitive club in that division, they're going to have to make some changes and choices.

And, you know, I imagine they will. This is a well-resourced organization, and I don't think that John Milton is going to suddenly be like, well, I don't care about winning a World Series anymore. Like, I don't think that's going to be the approach, but... Yeah, I think that's only notable just because they've had such incredible continuity over the past few years and just almost no turnover. It's just the same regulars throughout this run of playoff appearances. And really, kind of uncommonly, I think there was a Jason Stark stat about how it was basically unprecedented or, or, maybe since the dynasty Yankees now 25 plus years ago, that's just the previous example of a team that just ran the same regulars out there year in and year out.

So I thought that the framing I saw in some places that, oh, this play didn't just end this Philly's playoff run, but maybe it just ended this entire era of winning Phillies baseball. That seems quite premature to me. I agree. Yeah, this team, yeah, absolutely, they're free agents, they're guys getting older. Yeah. But this team has been on the upswing, not in its playoff runs. The odd thing about it is that this team kind of went the deepest the first time and then brought back stronger rosters, if anything, and just didn't go his team because that's the way the playoffs work sometimes.

But they've, I think they're the first NL team ever I saw the stat to increase their win total in seven consecutive seasons. So they just keep getting better and that won't continue forever. and yeah, they have some vacancies and they have some changes to make, but it certainly doesn't seem to me as if this is the death knell for the Phillies. Like, they could absolutely be back here next year. Yeah, they absolutely could,

but they're going to have to do some work to make that happen from a roster construction perspective, which, again, like, if you're going to count on any club to do what they need to, I think that they're a safe bet, just given the way that their ownership views like their relationship to the team so that's a good there's a good thing right but yeah just like a very it adds a a layer you know there's that whole feeling of doubt does add you know something extra i

think to the reaction and aftermath of of a season ending in that way you know it's one thing to have to have it and because you know otani hits a home run or whatever it just feels different but to a person really just trying to pick up this young man and, you know, sometimes taking responsibility in a way that was candidly maybe not necessary. Like, I don't think that what happened is on, like, Matt Strom, not insisting on player fielding practice enough, right? But, like, I just, I think that we don't always see the best of people

in moments of disappointment. And it's really nice when they do and when it's directed at a young member of the team. And, and I think in a way that's like in accordance with reality, Matt Strom's comment, maybe aside, there were a lot of points in that game where things could have gone differently, right? They did not put together particularly good at bats. They walked the bases loaded, you know, like they got some bad calls. God, challenge, they couldn't have just instituted the challenge system for the postseason. Like, if you're going to, if you're going to do it.

Yeah, I was going to say, right, because this was the final domino that fell. And there are just so many dominoes that had to fall before that and line up in just such a way. And, yes, maybe you're referencing the call on call, the call on Alex call in the seventh where after the game, Christopher Sanchez said that the ump actually apologized to him for missing that 2-2 pitch and that could have been a strikeout. and then it was a walk instead and then that runner not call because he had been pinched run for but Justin Dean who pinched in for Alex Call

he scored the tying run in the 7th on the basis loaded walk to Mookie so that's one thing or yeah if the Phillies had hit better which they didn't and you know primarily with the exception of the

two Homer Schwerber day some of the big boppers and the heart of the lineup didn't really deliver. So, yeah, there's any number of ways that things could have gone better such that O'Ryan Kirkering was not put in that position. And of course, he himself could have not walked K.K. Hernandez, which would have helped as well. But, you know, the run that scored was not even a runner that he put on base.

He came in to try to bail out Jesus Luzardo, who had gotten into a bit of a jam there. And so, yeah, any number of things could have spared him. being the guy who was in the position to make the mistake that now will be the headline mistake and the thing that everyone remembers, which just sucks so much. Because, like, you could just see it in that moment. It was very relatable in a way what happened because you could just, you could infer his mind in that moment because, you know, he made three mistakes, I guess. you could say. The one was not gloving the comebacker initially, and it kind of clanked off

his glove. And then because he had not fielded that ball cleanly and the bases were loaded and the winning walk-off run is bearing down on home plate, of course he sees that and he thinks, oh my gosh, oh my gosh, yeah, I got to do something, right? And got to recover. Oh, yeah. And then the second mistake is throwing home at all. And sure, as we're watching on TV or we're watching the replay or we're seeing a still image of J.T. Real Muto pointing, it's incredibly obvious that the play was not at the plate. And Petriello had the stat cast stats that showed that the runner Kim was 30 feet away from home plate at the decision point.

And Pahas was 55 feet away from first base. And, of course, Kirkring would have had to turn and throw. And, you know, there would have been a bit more of an acrobatic maneuver. involved there. But even so, it was probably a pretty easy play at first base if it had been an accurate throw. The third mistake was having a wild throw, but I don't think that really means. He wouldn't have gotten them even with a great throw, I don't think. I really don't. Yeah. And Kim kind of maybe missed home plate at first. He did initially miss home plate. That was the other wild thing. Right. Because Real Muto was just blocking it. Basically, he was

just standing on the plate because the throw kind of pulled him into the line of. the runner. And so, yeah, if it had been a cleaner throw or a more accurate throw, then maybe Real Muto would not have been blocking Kim that way. And maybe Kim would have touched the base. Or, you know, it could have just been ruled obstruction or something. You know, like, I don't think that was decisive. And even if, yeah, if it had been perfectly placed, it was just too late. But, you know, there were initially people who thought, oh, did he forget how many outs there were? And he thought that the play had to be at the plate? I don't think so. I mean, maybe Maybe everything fled from his mind in that moment, but they had just had a mountain visit, right?

I'm sure he was aware of how many out there where it's just that that guy is 30 feet away from... He's barring down. Yeah, and you're thinking, oh, my gosh, I've got to do something. I've got to make up for this flub and, oh, if I can just... And, you know, you're panicking in that moment, probably, because just all eyes are on you and it's the highest leverage possible moment. And, I mean, I felt for him because... Because I could remember moments in my life, obviously nothing as high profile as that, but just, you know, moments where you're flustered and you're just forced into doing something that in retrospect you shouldn't have done, but you didn't have the time to calmly consider your options.

And so you can understand how it happened. You could just see it unfolding. And it's so fast, you know. It just, it happened so quickly. It was a second. It was a fraction of a second. and this young man's life, he's 24, it's just irrevocably altered in that one sequence of a few action. It's just...

It's so weird that we know, and I've made this comment before, and I don't want to overstate the case or make it worth. It's like, I'm sure that Ryan Kirkring is probably not consuming any media about that game, but I hope he's not. But we all have things that we think about at third. 3 a.m. when we can't sleep. And those things are often mundane, to be clear. Like, even if it's a, even if the thing you're thinking about is something that's like vaguely haunting you, it's often a mundane thing, right? It's the... And no one else is thinking about it. Or maybe one other person is or something. But not millions of people. Right. It's the time in middle school that you were unkind to your lab partner. It's,

you know, a fight you had with your sister. It's... Or maybe it's something. more serious. You know, maybe it is something that sort of altered the course of your life. But in general, it's something you're, not only is it something only you are thinking about, but it's something maybe only you really know about or clock as a 3 a.m. thought. And I don't know what's happened in Orion Kirkering's life. Maybe when, you know, when it all comes down to it, this is not trivial but like overshadowed by other more impactful moments

I don't know but I feel comfortable guessing that it isn't and that's a wild thing for me to know about a stranger yeah just to see that unfolding in real time yeah and you can see it dawning on him of course I don't know what was happening

in his mind but the realization that oh no that's the end that's the end of the series but also you wonder is he thinking that's a play that's going to define my life that just happened in this past second. Like, this is the first paragraph of my obituary or something. You know, I don't know if he's having those sorts of thoughts in that precise second. Perhaps he wasn't thinking anything, really, except just in general, oh, no.

But that's what we're thinking, watching it. This guy a second ago was a perfectly fine Major League reliever, and now he's the guy who made the Orion Kirkring play. And that's just unfair. And hopefully that won't define not only his life, but also his career. Like hopefully he has some baseball redemption or, you know, he has some other big postseason moments where he delivers. And that replaces this in people's minds or the Phillies win a subsequent world series.

And it doesn't seem like as huge a deal as it does right now. But yeah, it's just like, if you could rewind time just for a second. And it's not like I have a rooting interest in this series, but I have a rooting interest in not perceiving human suffering in the moment. And he had, you know what, it's like Orion Kirkering was, you know, like a perfectly, just like a perfectly good middle reliever this year. You know, he had a 3-3 ERA. He was worth a battle win.

Like I remember, do you remember when Orion Kirkering kind of like came on to the the scene very late in the 2020 and it was like oh my god look at that freaking slider yeah we thought at first it's like oh here's the the k rad of this this playoff run yeah and so you know i i bring that up not to suggest that he can't be that guy again but but maybe to offer an optimistic path forward for him and for the people who sort of care about his well-being like you can go through changes you know my last like big o'ryan kirkering thought before this incident was about was about that slider in that first year because he had that late debut he only threw a couple of innings right at the end and then like you were like wow look at that fucking slider and like you look at his you look at

his you know pitch grades now and it's still like wow look at that slider man um and so it can change again, you know, and he's only, he's only 24. He's so young. Yeah. But I do, I do worry. I worry that there will never be a bigger moment. Now, the thing that happens, even in a game like baseball, where we have this long history, we have this super detailed sort of historical record, we have this precise accounting. We do forget, you know, we do forget things. And there's, like, like a, there's some mercy in the ability to forget. As frustrating as it can be when you and your sister spent half a Seahawks game trying to remember Michael Fasbender's name, just as like an example.

A pretty minor one, granted, but an example nonetheless. And then it comes to you while you're walking to get a beer and you go, Michael Fasbender, and you both go, ah! Yeah. Because you needed to jettison the prior name that had been suggested for Michael Fasbender, which wasn't him. And now I'm forgetting who that person was. we're not going to try to figure it out.

And it's like, you know, it's like, that person's name was like sticky on my brain. And I couldn't, until it had washed itself away, I couldn't summon Michael Fassbender. We were talking about the alien series because Lauren was trying to encourage me to watch Alien Earth because she thinks that she enjoyed it. Although she was a little like,

I don't know if they sucked the landing at the end. I don't know because I haven't seen it. But yeah, sounds like she was right. So anyway, like we forget things. this is hardly, this is like a devastating moment that the morning after, I doubt strongly it will be the most notable play of the entire postseason, right? And so we'll forget. But the flip side of that is that like, well, Philly's fans forget. And so you wonder, you know, and I don't want to suggest we, you know, we give fan bases sort of generalized business on this pod sometimes. And I hope people know that we're speaking in, in, generalities and that there are all kinds of people in every fan base and some of them are great and some of them suck and that's just because they're people at the end of the day and i think that philly's fans are often perceived as rude and uh talk about undecorous and that's all true but like

they're people you know and so sometimes they are also compassionate and they um they do like to buck their guys up you know and they they've done that for players and so i don't want to a nastiness on the part of Philly sports fans toward Orion Kirk Green, because it was so human that I think that even the fans that occupy the Lincoln Financial Field across the street, who are most famous for having thrown batteries at Santa, although they didn't do that at the link, I think that was still at the vet, maybe. Anyway, they're people. They can find moments of compassion. And so I hope that that gets extended to this young man. And who knows? Like, maybe he becomes a weird fan favorite in a way because people just feel such a kinship. It's so rare,

you know, baseball lets you pretend more than other sports that you could do what they do, but you can't really. Like people will be like, I could get a hit out. No, you couldn't. I got to run out that. No, you couldn't. You couldn't. You probably couldn't. You almost certainly could not. If you're a former, like, college baseball player, sure maybe. If you're a high level, you know, college softball player sure maybe but like you and i no we couldn't ben no we couldn't and so but we could do this you know this is a thing we are very this to be clear i would do something this level of of panic the minute i stepped on the fields if i were asked to play professional baseball i would be a puddle i would be a wreck and so i i reliably make mistakes we are

fallible our brain also short circuit sometimes oh yeah yeah because sometimes we can't remember mackofazbender's name so all of that to say like i i do wonder maybe it comes back around for him maybe this endears him to them in a weird way because it is so human and it is so relatable and it's i hope that i hope he knows that you know i don't know this guy and i'm sure he's got people around him and clearly he's got an entire organization saying it seems so sincere, everything that everybody said. Like, you listened to those guys post-gaming. You were just like, wow, they were really, you know, this is a coming together around

this guy that I think was very genuine. I was touched even in the initial moments after the play when Kirkering was heading off the field and Rob Thompson pulled him aside. And I don't know exactly what he said in his ear, but you could imagine the general gist of it. And that was nice, just that image of supporting him of telling him. Oh, they were around him. in the dugout immediately, you know, on either side.

And, like, Bome looked annoyed on the field, understandably, just because I think he just, he also had a human reaction, but he was, like, right there in the dugout, like, holding him. You know, they all were. Philly's fans have the capacity for forgiveness. Of course. We saw some booing in this series, but we've also seen the rallying around the slumping Trey Turner episode. So, they rallied around Bome after he had his, exactly.

his comment and then owned it, and then they were like, yeah, I think they've since been annoyed with him for other reasons. Well, maybe. But, yeah, if they return to the stage, despite the free agencies of Yamuto and Schwerber and Suarez and the uncertain status of Wheeler, et cetera, and if Kirkring plays a positive role in that, then, yeah, maybe it does become a story of redemption. But as evidence of the fact that we forget, it's circulated on Thursday night. Some people were. saying that this was the first ever instance of a walk-off error to end a postseason series. And then some other people pointed out, no, this actually happened a second time less than a decade ago in the ALDS between the Rangers and Blue Jays in game three. There was a walk-off error there where Rudnett-Odoer threw the ball away on a double-play attempt. and people forgot that and it wasn't even that long ago

and that was a little different I guess there was an out recorded on the play it wasn't only error but still when people say oh this is unprecedented this has never happened other people pulled the Yoda and said no there is another and in fact it wasn't even that long ago

and maybe it's partly you cannot help yourself oh I finished I finished Android by the way we'll talk about it later Okay, maybe in a bonus pot. Yeah. But yes, people forget, and maybe it helps that it's the division series also. So it's a slightly less bright stage.

That doesn't mean that it hurts less for Phillies fans in the moment. But, you know, if we wanted to put it in quantitative terms, the championship win probability added hit is not quite as big. Because, of course, if the Phillies heads, well, if that error hadn't been committed, A, they might not have won that game. Right, there's no guarantee they win, yeah. Right. I know that Blake Trinen was set to come in, so it kind of felt like they were about to win, but it wasn't a guarantee. And then they could have lost game five or they could have lost in the NLCS or they could

have lost in the World Series. So even if that play had been completed and the out had been recorded, they still, the odds would not have been in favor of a Phillies World Championship this year. So maybe that doesn't help in the initial aftermath of this. but in the grand scheme of things, the legacy of how it's remembered, I think that does make a bit of a difference. But I was thinking of this, you know, it was hard to watch. And I'm not someone even who minds cringe comedy, for instance, let's say.

I'm not someone who just, like, can't watch curb your enthusiasm or veep or I think you should leave because it just makes me feel so uncomfortable. But this moment did because it was not comedy. It was reality. And it was an actual person, not a fictional character. Yeah. But I was thinking of this just in terms of baseball lore, because Vin Scully used to say and pray going into a World Series that there would be heroes, but not goats. Yeah.

And by goats, I mean, lowercase goats, you know, the person who's blamed for the failure. We made a mistake letting that become two things. I know. Like culturally. That was a mistake. We shouldn't have done that. Yeah, because they're so adjacent because you're often talking. about sports or accomplishment and they just mean polar opposites.

And so probably, yeah, I mean, in writing, it's clear because, you know, the other goat is in caps, but it's just hard to talk about in this context. But that was his wish. And it's a fine sentiment that I suppose I subscribe to also. I guess I would certainly prefer that a team had won that game or that series and we would celebrate the winner and whoever had the, walk off hit or whatever, and we would not fixate on the error that was committed. But I do wonder, like, maybe this seems sort of cruel, but would baseball be better without goats? Like, if we could erase all of the indignities from baseball history, all of the moments. I'm just imagining actual goats. Well, there was the curse of the Billy goat, I guess.

Probably Cubs fans would have been happy to erase that. But if we could somehow. make it such that no one ever would be to blame, really, that it would just be all heroes and all warm, fuzzy feelings, and sports don't really work like this because

it's a zero-sum game and someone has to win and someone has to lose. That doesn't mean that someone has to be really at fault or notorious for the loss, but, you know, it's hard to have one without the other. But let's say you could and you could just make it so that

no one ever experienced is what Orion Kirkering did here. Would that enrich the legacy of baseball? Would there be some loss because the goats, because these moments of collective pain just contribute to the folklore of the sport and the fandom? And because there's no denying that the engagement of this, just the emotion, it provokes powerful emotions.

It's riveting, I mean, kind of in a rubber, necking. You can't look away kind of way or you want to look away, but you can't. And it's just if you could remove that from baseball history, all of those episodes. And there are some players who are primarily or almost exclusively to most people known for that one moment, whether it's someone like Bill Buckner who had just such a long career or someone who, if they're remembered at all, at this late date, it's because of that thing. they did. It's Merkel. It's Snodgrass. It's Mickey

Owen's third strike past ball. It's that kind of thing. It's Tony Fernandez in the 97 World Series. It's that kind of thing. There are some players who had moments like that but also were so great that they overcame that and no one really identifies them

with that primarily, you know, unless you're my mom and you still think primarily about Mario and Rivera blowing the 2001 World Series. He just had so many other moments where he didn't blow it, that that is foremost in most people's minds, and he's a legend, he's a Hall of Famer. Or Babe Ruth getting thrown out, getting caught stealing to end the 1926 World Series.

That was a big deal at the time. But he's Babe Ruth, and the legend and all the accomplishments and the greatness subsumes that. But if you're a lesser player, if you're a mere mortal, then it can come to define your legacy. And that may or may not turn out to be the case for Orion Kirkring. But if we could strike that from the record, I would be inclined to just out of humanity, out of easing the suffering of those players. But I do feel like there would be some loss to the total entertainment value of baseball just because you have those common reference points.

And it is sort of cruel for them to be people who have feelings or had feelings. but these are memorable, legendary moments in the game. Sometimes it's about triumph, and sometimes you have to have the tragedy that comes with the joy of a dramatic moment. So I don't know if I could just snap my fingers and erase all of those instances. I don't know that I would, or if I did, I think there really would be some significant subtraction from the total just entertaining. value. It feels almost callous to put it in terms of entertainment, but that's what it is, ultimately. I think there would be a loss there. You do have to have the goats in addition to the heroes. I just think that there's no way to avoid the possibility of someone having a play like that, right? Or rather, they're already doing everything they can to avoid a play like that, right? Like for, I don't know what about Strom's comment, like really master. Strong's comment really stuck with me. I'm sure they did, I'm sure they did do PFPs, right? Like, I'm sure they, I'm sure they do. Spring training. Yeah. And so, you know, I think that most

players are already working just so, so, so hard all the time to be the very best version of themselves that they can be as players. And so I feel like we're as devastating error proof as we're going to be. You can't play the game and ensure that it's. doesn't happen. And so, yeah, I think that this has to be like just one of the potential consequences. And it's, you know, all you can encourage people to do, whether they're fellow players or fans or what have you, is like confront moments like that with some amount of compassion on the back end. And I think that that's the only way you can guard against it being defining is to encourage people not to let it, or at least to, you know, try to let people

forget about it. But, oh, boy, I'm just... Yeah. Some of these cases, we talk sometimes about the difference between blaming someone for a physical act that goes awry and then more of a tactical or premeditated mistake almost, you know, something strategy-based as opposed to... kind of coordination-based. Yeah, yeah.

And this was kind of a combination of both, maybe, because there was a physical component and a mental component to it. So if the ball goes through Bill Buckner's legs, it's not as if he decided to do that. I guess if it's an error like that, you could say that it's somewhat negligent, that this is a fundamental that you're taught to always get the glove down and don't let that happen.

And so it speaks to your character or something you could perhaps interpret it that way. But if someone gives up a big home run, let's say. And I guess you could invoke Donnie Moore here, whose life ended very tragically for reasons that may or may not have been related to that career-defining home run. But if someone gives up a home run,

you know, maybe it was a meatball or something, but the other guys get paid too, as they say. And sometimes people hit home runs and maybe it was a mistake pitch. But a mistake pitch is easier to excuse. than just a mental mistake. And something like this, I guess a throwing error, it's kind of a combination of both.

I mean, maybe if it's an error of which base do I throw to as opposed to just a failure to execute the throw, then it's just the worst of both worlds, maybe. But it's in this moment where you're just under such extreme pressure and you can just understand how it happens. But something like that as opposed to say getting thrown out stealing to end a world series, Well, you didn't have to attempt that steal.

You didn't have to go. And so it's a little bit different from that. I don't know if that determines how people remember these things. But if you're just someone who gave up the game ending Homer or something, yeah, that sticks with people. That's certainly part of the legacy. But maybe it doesn't wrinkle quite as much because guys just, you know, they hit Homer sometimes even if you do your job as well as you can.

But this was different from that. And it's, you know, it's just, we've all had these, these sweaty moments, these panicked moments. And there's a part of that watching it where you're thinking like there, but for the grace of God and athletic talent. Totally. Go I, like, I'm never going to be in that exact situation, obviously, but you can imagine whatever the equivalent of that is in your personal or professional life. And there's there's a moment of relief just like, oh, happy not to be him. but then accompanied also by, I'm sorry that he has to be him right now. And I do think that, you know, that piece of it makes it perhaps thoroughly unsurprising that

the people on the team, you know, and I imagine this is true regardless of whether or not you're a Philly, you do have a sense of like, there before the grace of God go I. And I imagine that allows you to access a great deal of empathy. And, you know, there were a couple of guys in their comments after the game who sort of alluded to something like that. Like Schwerber said, you know, I've made a bunch of mistakes in my career. Obviously, none is sort of dramatic that I can recall anyway as this one. But like, there's some amount of that to go around. But, Orion, I hope you get to like go be on a beach, you know, feel like the warm sun.

and some sand and you know it's it's going to be okay it is going to be okay the thing about it that i think is so hard to well i would imagine is so hard to reconcile is like you know we don't know if they would have won that game but even if they had like the odds were still uh against the philly's like advancing even advancing to the world series it's just hard to do you know and I imagine that everyone there is aware of that on some level, but having it be this like amorphous, you know, probabilistic reality versus like replaying that throw. Anyway, I hope he's okay. I guess that's what I'll say. I hope the kid's okay. Well, a little lost in the way it ended was how great a game it was up to that point to get it

to the 11th inning. And really, it became a battle of bullpens beyond a certain point, and bullpens populated by starting pitchers. And so we had a Roki Sasaki versus Jesus Luzardo showdown for a while there, which was fun. And Roki, three spotless innings, it's just, I'm a believer now, right? Like entering October, I was intrigued. I was thinking, could he be the big bullpen weapon that the Dodgers need here? and so far so good

so certainly seems like I mean he's been anointed as the guy but also seems like he's up to the task Okay I don't want to yuck anyone's yama about Roki Roki looks great

Roki still sometimes cannot throw strikes He was credited with strikes because he got swinging strikes which I don't know if you know this been That tends to be pretty good You know like when a guy gets swinging strikes People are like wow hasn't So I guess what I

would offer to members of the cubs or the brewers is like what if you maybe try not swinging at the not strikes and just swinging at the actual strikes because some of it is him having nasty stuff and moves a bunch and it just like moves out of the and you're like whoa some of it I do think is like they they're not intentional misses sometimes so I'm not trying to be a rokey truther. Rookie looks great. Like, it is fantastic that, and I, you know, talk about a guy who you, like, felt

kind of, like, it wasn't, it was becoming unbecoming to talk about him. Like, he was just struggling so profoundly, and it was so obviously affecting his, seeming, like, his equilibrium as a person. And so this is great. And also, I

think that with a little time to do some advance work, that, like, there might be some some strategy that can be deployed is one of the same. So, like, that'll be interesting. But also, Google likes on the Phillies that, because I was just like, you shouldn't swing at that. And then they did.

I was like, you also shouldn't swing at that. And then they were like, no, we really want to, Meg. We really want to swing at that. Easier said than done, obviously. Just lay off that pitch that is designed to make you chase it. That's a kind of classic backseat podcasting, of course. But yeah, there might be a better approach that could be employed. And, you know, we'll see if it ends up being the brewers or the Cubs.

But the brewers have certainly emphasized plate discipline and not swinging at pitches that would not be beneficial to swing at. So perhaps they would be equipped to handle that. But the Dodgers, they look tough to beat for whatever that's worth. It may or may not be worth that much because you can go from looking tough to beat to being beatable. In one series, their bats could go cold. It certainly happened before to them and to many other teams. So I don't know if they will look as unbeatable next week. But right now, just given the number of arms they have out there, it's a pretty intimidating team.

It's really something, I think that like one of the things we risk losing sight of, given how the series ended, is just how dominant their pitching was throughout. Like, they really, you know, trying an aside, Kershah aside, the guys who didn't blow up were very good in this series. So I think that they are still vulnerable because you can only, you can't throw, presumably you can't throw a rookie every night, right? They still have bullpen questions that they have to account for. And they will get into longer series where they won't necessarily be able to like, bring in the same set of starters in relief. Or if they do, it's like, you really want to bring cursor on it again?

You probably don't. So it's not a completely settled situation, but they certainly look much more formidable and less easy to make jokes about when the game gets turned over to the bullpen than they did even, like, two weeks ago. So, like, that sucks for other teams, but seems probably pretty exciting for them.

I'm going to be really interested to see what Otani looks like at the plate. Yeah, it was not great in this series. No, and like that has to be so frustrating to the Phillies because if you would ask me, like, what's one of the keys to you guys advancing? It would have been bottling up Otani, and they largely did that, you know?

And I understand, we didn't really talk a lot about the decision to intentionally walk him. I understand doing it because you have the base, but also, I don't know, man, like, money you get to ran for if it's not to just go at that, sorry for this where, to just go out the guy. You know what I mean? Like I got it, but I also was like,

I don't know, I'm just like, he's made me the best closer in the league, just have him pitch to the dude. Like, what are we doing here? Yeah, that was definitely debatable. Anyway, we'll have more time to talk about the Dodgers and we'll talk about the Phillies more of the soft season. I feel bad because we're giving short shrift to

Brewers Cubs, but Brewer's Cubs, well, it was not decisive for one thing. And there was not a notable play that consumed conversation about baseball in its aftermath. Just lower TN-Hap. He hit the tar out of that one.

He sure did. Just a lot of first-inning scoring in this series for one team or another or both. But this one, yeah, he hits that big homer and then the Cubs just tack on from there. And Michael Bush hits one

and Kyle Tucker hits one. And Boyd bounced back from his very bad game one appearance. And then the pen kept it up and the brewers just got nothing going whatsoever on offense. So Cubs have worked their way all the way back to a tie in this series. And it will be decided Saturday. And then you'll have to turn right around and start the NLCS on Monday, one of these teams. So it's not a lot of time in between the Dodgers.

I mean, I'll have the luxury of having a few days off and setting their rotation the way they want it. It was one of those games that even though it was a playoff game and it obviously matters a lot. I don't feel like I engaged with all that closely in part because the part of it where all the scoring happened coincided with that Phillies game being an extras. And then by the time I was really paying attention, I was like, oh, this is probably, this might be over now.

Always good to see Boyd bounce back. Good for Kyle Tucker, hasn't hit a home run in the postseason in quite a while. So that had to feel good, like removing a monkey from one's back. Would they hang out on your back? When is it like they jump on your back? Is it like one of the little monkeys? I always imagine it being like the monkey from outbreak. And then I'm like, well, apart from a horrifying, you know, Ebola-like disease, like that little guy seemed okay.

Sure. Could be a nice little sidekick companion. Cute. Yeah. Yeah. But no, I guess it's not that kind of monkey maybe. Probably not. Anyway, there's just so much less to say about this game.

Hopefully people don't blame us. We'll talk about the conclusion of the. series next time, and we'll, of course, talk about whichever team advances. There was one more weird bunt, ultimately maybe not that consequential, but since we were talking about the increased incidence of bunting in the postseason, there was one when the brewers were down three-nothing already, and Joey Ortiz laid down in a sacrifice, which is just odd, right? Because if you're just going to give up and out like that, then you might as well just like hit first. him or so i mean the bunt was okay but it this didn't lead to any runs like you need

yeah base runners in that situation so that was just another another case of uh when the calendar flips over to october sometimes we we regress a few decades seemingly when it comes to sacrifice bunting but yeah ultimately may not have made much of a difference bunting why why um they they shouldn't have bunting if they're going to have bunting this is like a goat It's just like goat and goat, yeah. Yeah, bunting. Why do we call it bunting? I'm sure there's a good reason.

You're asking me a lot of excellent etymological questions. Am I? I'm certainly asking you questions. I don't know how excellent they are, but they are being asked. That's true. Maybe it's, uh, automotia. Maybe it's, it sounds like, bunt, bunt. That's probably not why.

No, I understand why. I was asking about, like, the cloth. Why is that called bunting? Well, I'm not even sure why the other bunting is called bunting. But we'll get answers for you. I guess, let's see. Maybe. Sometimes I'm able to Google something up quickly.

Yeah, I don't know. It's track it down. According to Etemann line. Wow. But it comes from a push with the head or horns of a goat or calf. So striking with the head or horns of a goat or calf, perhaps an alteration of but with a goat in mind, not that. the Cala Raleigh kind of butt, but budding like head budding, that kind of thing.

So I guess that's why, because it's kind of doing that, but with your bat on a ball, not what I would have guessed. No, neither. Maybe it sounds like bunt when a ball hits a bat. Apparently that's not it, but who knows? Who's to say? I'll do my own research. My interpretation is valid.

Those are my feelings. So with zero research. Who knows? Yeah. Yeah. Okay. I did have a couple other things we could touch on here. Okay.

In lieu of previewing a consequential game that will have happened by the time this podcast is posted. There was a lot of discussion, especially during the Yankees, Blue Jays series about pitch tipping. And there was a piece at the athletic that was written by Annie McCullough and Dennis Lynn and Cody Savenh about just the culture of paranoia. Pitch-tipping paranoia that is surrounding the game, particularly in the playoffs with all the scouting that goes on. But just because you've got cameras, you've got iPads, you have legal ways to detect pitch-tipping that are much more high-tech and sophisticated than ever before

because you do have these high-definition cameras that are trained on everyone. And as long as you're not using it in-game to analyze someone, you can study that footage after the game between games to your heart's content. And you can have all kinds of like, you know, machine learning, computer vision, algorithmic ways of detecting pitch tipping. And it gets just very perceptive and detailed. And it could be a facial expression that someone makes when they select one pitch instead of another.

It's not even necessarily the obvious, oh, I can see your grip in the glove because you're not closing your glove. It's not even that kind of super obvious thing, but it could be something that you would never know that just seems entirely divorced from the act of throwing a pitch, and you're able to have a computer or a person analyze this footage and overlay it and come up with these very precise things. Or something like the Kinetrax system and its competitors

that give you in-game motion capture and biomechanical capture. Statcast can do this too, and you can analyze that, and you can look at the positions of various joints and everything you're doing and kind of correlate it and see if there's a match there.

And so because that's happening at the same time, there's kind of a counterintelligence campaign. And so you have hitters, which maybe we've talked about before, or base runners, faking, detecting tells and trying to,

act as if they have picked up on something and sort of falsely signal the signs to try to get in the pitcher's head. And then now there's a counter to the counter where the pitchers are also trying to deek the people who would be picking up on this stuff and they're trying to insert fake tells essentially, like give them a glimpse of the grip in the glove and then change it after the fact, after you think that you have tipped them off or they think that they have picked up on something. And I'm sure a lot of this has been going on forever, right? This is kind of the age-old pitcher batter and pitcher runner balance jockeying for power. But this is also something that has really ramped up in this era of high-tech sophisticated surveillance. And I've just always

kind of been a pitch-tipping skeptic just in general, both about picking up on the tells, but then also whether the tells last or whether they're quickly corrected and then whether that information is actionable, whether you're able to relay it in a way that the hitter can actually make you self. Do something with, yeah. Yeah, I think we've learned in the banging scheme

and other situations like this that it's one thing to tell a hitter what's coming. It's another thing to communicate that in a way that is not distracting or disruptive and for the hitter to actually make use of that information, And then beyond that to just the actual act of hitting the ball, which is hard, even if you know, which is coming. You do still have to hit it, you know? Yes.

And of course, in theory, it should be easier to hit it. If you can anticipate the speed and the movement, that's a big part of pitching of disrupting the timing and keeping the hitter guessing. And so if there's less guessing, you'd think that that would be beneficial. But is it if you're not used to having that information and suddenly it's information overload or it's being communicated in a way that is. distracting because you're looking at a runner or something or even you're listening for a banging trash can or whatever it is. And so can you sort of incorporate and synthesize that information into your preparation in the splits second, the instant that you have to process that and leverage it? So I remain a skeptic about all of this stuff. But clearly it is on the minds

of teams and players and staffers and they're doing things to try to adjust to this. And this was a story with Luke Weaver, who was ineffective in the postseason. And he was worried that he was tipping his pitches. And perhaps he was. And just the fact that this was on his mind, that's something. Even if you're not actually tipping, if you can be convinced that you're tipping. So anyway, this stuff is so pervasive that I don't know whether it's a problem or something that should be addressed in some way. It's not violating any rules.

It can be done legally in these ways. So I don't know that it's a problem, and it's not different in kind from things that have gone on in the whole history of baseball. Maybe it's different in degree. But I don't know if this is like constantly consuming people's attention. And with the pitch clock, one of the nice things, I guess, is that there's not an excessive delay because of all of this,

which is something that was happening. because of all the paranoia about teams picking up on signs. And, you know, now with Pitchcom, hopefully there's just less exposure to that also. But sometimes you'd have like whole different sets of signs and then you'd go through the alternate signs and it really slowed down. Yeah. And I was able to, I did an article on this years ago that showed you could tell that even before the banging scheme was public knowledge, the teams that had some awareness of it,

or divisional opponents or had been tipped off to it themselves. You could tell I was able to see before this was a well-known story that teams were taking more time between pitches against the Astros than they were in general because they were varying up these signs and going through them over and over. And that was very tiresome for the spectators too. So at least that's not as much of an issue. You could tell it was a problem because I have memory of, I think it was James Paxton

who was going through signs. He was calling to go through signs. There was no one on base. You know, like, it was, I think they, you know, they had some understanding of, this is when he was with the Yankees. He, you know, in 19, they had some understanding

of something going on with Houston. And they were, like, cycling through signs with no one on. And we were just like, what's going on with Houston, you know? And then we were like, oh, that's... Yes, now we know. But yeah, and so because there's a pitch clock,

at least it can't extend that time. And there's less time to pick up on things and communicate things, but there's also less time for pitchers to settle themselves. And maybe this gets in their head and disrupts them even more. So I don't know whether this is a problem or whether it really has as much of an impact act as players seemingly think it does, or whether the preparation, the hours that are going into this analysis actually has a huge effect on the field. And, you know, maybe it's kind of like an intelligence arms race where if you know that

your opponents are putting all the time into studying this, well, you have to do the self-scouting, not only scouting your opponents, but scouting yourselves to see what might they be picking up on and then trying to inoculate yourself against that. So when it reaches this level of sophistication, I think there's a sense that, huh, maybe this is sort of unseemly. Maybe this has gone too far. If it's being used in game, then yes, that would be strictly prohibited and crack down on if it were detected at this point. But I don't know if you can do anything about this happening between games. And I don't know whether you even should.

But it's certainly something that appears to be on the minds of a lot of people. in the game. Yeah, I have two thoughts. One of them is directly about this and the other is, remind me to ask you a pitchcom related question. One, we're done with this little bit. I think that you have to, well, I guess, first of all, this is like what you have big front offices for, right, so that you can have someone who, like, is spending time going through video to see if you're actually tipping. I tend to agree with you that the effect it has is overstated, but I don't think it's nothing, right? I don't think this is like a non-zero effect, and I do think it's worth trying to intervene on,

if only because it seems to make pitchers crazy. Like, it really does seem to, the suggestion that they are tipping seems to profoundly unsettle them in a way that, like, is worth intervening on, even if the marginal effect of the tipping itself is quite small. So there's that. And it, when I hear about stuff like this and you have like this move and counter move, and you're doing this, like, complicated, freaking grad seminar, like, game theory problem. I understand players just being, like, I don't know, man, I don't need, I can't have all that crap in my head.

Just tell me what to do, you know? Like, I, every time we hear stuff like this, I'm like, I get why they're there. I do. Because I would, it would make me feel crazy. You're like, and then I'm doing, but is he doing that because I'm doing, right? Like, you would just feel nuts. You hipped me to the quote by Mariners manager Dan Wilson, which I looked up. Yes, the chess match.

Speaking of the signs stealing Astros, he was asked about his chess match with Detroit manager, A.J. Hinch, and Dan Wilson said, I don't know how to play chess, so I don't know how to use that as a metaphor, which is quite abusing. It's so sweet. I have clearly had some issues with Wilson as a manager, and I don't know. like he's like frantically good as an in-game strategist but I was like that's maybe the most endearing thing I've ever heard in my entire life yeah what was your pitchcom question what's up with all the pitchcom problems does it seem does it seem as if there are a lot of pitchcom problems it seems like we have a lot of what you guys are how are you all not testing this stuff before more like there's a lot of oh I got to come out here and I got to have a new what's up yeah i remember talking about this i don't know if it was on a playoff live stream or on

the podcast or both last october maybe because it seemed like there were a lot of instances of instances it does make sense that it might happen more in the postseason because it's so loud and and the stakes are so high that if it's a case of i just can't hear right then that's one thing but there are also the cases of something just out of juice and and and we wondered and speculated and cited some stuff about, is this gamesmanship? Are you actually, are you just buying time? Are you trying to buy time? Right. Without taking a time out or you're trying to get a breather amid the pitch clock and you just sort of feign some pitch calm malfunction. And yeah, that happens at times, I'm sure. So that's something that I hope would be strictly

policed if one team is abusing it in particular or if any team is for that matter. It just seems like it's happening a lot. And I'm like, how much error on this are you expecting us to believe? Because I feel like straining credulity at this juncture. Yeah, there is a philosophy in sports that seems like there's a strain of thinking that if this gets too high tech, then maybe it should be dialed back a bit. And I've subscribed to this when it comes to things actually in true. onto the field with my whole philosophy of maybe we've gone too far with having the coaches intervene directly and the cue cards and everything else that players are being coached in-game

while they're on the field. But more like maybe if you are relying on this level of technology, then that's too much. Because there are a lot of people who think that about replay review. That it should be that if you can't catch this thing, maybe even just in real-time, watching the play or watching the replay in real time. Basically, it's too much if you're relying on super slow-mo from a dozen different angles that if it's not an egregious enough mistake that you can't catch it with the naked eye, basically just playing back at regular speed, then it's not bad enough to need to delay the game and go get it corrected.

I've never believed that. But I understand the idea, and maybe there's a parallel here when it comes to all this picking up on pitch-tipping stuff and these extremely subtle tells if you need some sort of computer vision model with 4K footage or whatever, and you need a computer to flag this stuff, then maybe it would be better if there were some kind of crackdown on that. Because if it's not obvious enough that you could pick up on it, and there's a story tradition of the dedicated coach. who's the picking up on pitch-tipping savant and is sitting there, you know, communicating this stuff. And maybe that's also an example of a coach, not a player, having some in-game impact. But that at least goes back a long way. So you could say maybe they've taken this too far. If it's so subtle that you can't actually see it or perceive it yourself, just reviewing the footage or watching in real time,

then you shouldn't be able to know about this and we should restrict this information somehow. I am of the mind that sort of like our conversation last time where I think there is some value in batters occasionally being denied time because they wait too long. I want to see some umpires be a little more assertive with managers being like, you're holding up your hand too long, bud. Your moment has passed. No replay for you. You waited too long. It took your it took your analysts too long to figure out whether or not you should call for this because they are stretching. They're supposed to do it fast and there's a lot of hand out, hand out, hand out, hand out, and I'm like, no, you need to be told no now. You need to be told no. I'm not saying every time and I understand

it takes a second and I don't have an objection to there being an analyst whose job it is basically to help them discern whether of course they need someone to help. of course they do like they do we've opened this pandora's box we've given people at home an up-close slow-mo view of everything we can't have too much of an information mismatch between the team making a decision about replay which we have thrust into this process as a way of remedying mistakes which i agree with and then the folks at home are like you can't have too much of a mismatch but move it along move it along like i'm trying to remember which one seemed particularly egregious i think it may be involved Dave Roberts, where I was just like, hey, it's been like a minute, too long,

too long. The other related thing, the use of technology to affect in-game performances with the high-tech pitching machines, with the traject arcs. I was corresponding with Hannah Kaiser about this the other day. So we've talked about this before and tried to figure out how well do they work, can we detect the effect. And there was some controversy over their use in-game by. a player, there were some pitchers who were a bit upset about the fact that batters were

going down and, you know, in the bowels of the stadium and they're doing the trajectory when the game is going on to get a look at the guy they're going to face. And ultimately, I think I came down as not having an objection to that. But there was a report, Andy Martino tweeted that part of the reason, and this was kind of confirmed by Ben Nicholson Smith, who covers the Bouges. But Martino tweeted that when facing a pitcher they have never seen, the Yankees prepare with their trajectory machine, which mimics the pitcher's stuff and mechanics. The trajectory does not travel, which is, you know, they don't have a portable trajectory.

It's a big, bulky thing. And so teams, like, you know, calibrate it every time if you're moving it. Yeah. The teams that have them, which is almost all of them at this point, if not all of them, they have them at home. And, you know, they might have varying numbers. of them and they may actually use them to varying degrees and they may have varying numbers of them at their minor league affiliates, et cetera, but they almost all have them at least at home

in the big leagues now. And so, Martino said that Traject does not travel. And there, of course, was no time at home to do this with Traeus Savage, who has the highest release point in MLB. So he is an extreme kind of over-the-top guy and, you know, had made, what, three starts before the postseason. So that seems like the kind of guy that you would want to use. rejects against. And Ben Nicholson Smith quote tweeted that and said this was part of the reason why it made sense for the Bouges to start Yesavage at home and start the more experienced Shane Bieber in New York. I don't know whether that's speculation on his part or whether that's reporting that he heard that from someone. But that's interesting that you might actually

make a decision about how to schedule your starters based on whether someone's going to be able to use the fancy pitching machine against them. And so Hannah mused in the bandwagon about whether it would be possible to detect the efficacy of these machines in home road splits, for instance. And I still have been thwarted in my attempts to find a traject effect. It's not that I doubt that there could be one. I mean, it seems sound to me that seeing the personalized, tailored, stuff of a guy that you're going to face that day would help, you know? And we did a step last episode 2230, which was after the end of last season, where I tried to

find a trajectory effect on the times through the order penalty. And I was looking at times through the order penalty for road teams and home teams because I was speculating that you might see a less pronounced times through the order penalty if you're able to essentially have extra times through the order before the game begins. because you're seeing, you know, and so maybe the first plate appearance against that guy in the game is, is like your fifth plate appearance or something, because you already took four virtual plate appearances against that guy that. I couldn't find anything. I couldn't find anything conclusive in that episode. And then prompted by Hannah wondering about the home road splits, I looked at that too. And I just looked at, you know, year by year non-pitcher home road performance at the plate going back. to 2002 I looked at, and there appears to be no demonstrable difference there. There's nothing. You know, road teams this year had a 97 WRC plus, and home teams had a 102 WRC plus, and that's roughly in line with where it is every year, if not an even less pronounced split than usual.

So I can't see it. I can't detect it. There doesn't seem to be a clear signal there. And when And I think I mentioned in the stat blast last year that I emailed the company and the founder. And, you know, they were telling me that they think they have support for its efficacy, like looking at anonymized training data and people who are using it and everything. And that may well be. But you would think that if its use is so pervasive now that it would start to show up at some point in the league level stats. And so if someone has a novel way to study that and tease that out of all the noise, then I'll I'm all years because it's something that I remain fascinated about. I wrote a big feature about this spring of 2021, so I've been on this topic for a while, and I'm intrigued, and I think it could help, and it's a powerful tool, potentially for hitters in that ongoing pitcher battle in which the batters have so often been behind.

But I am kind of confused by why I can't see it yet if it's advanced to the point where teams are maybe even potentially deciding starting assignments. based on whether their opponent is going to be able to train against trajectory you savage before the actual you savage starts. Well, and it's interesting because hitters seem to be pretty unanimous in thinking that it is useful to them, right? That it does work. And so you have to imagine that there's something there, right? Like you might just be getting benefit from, you know, increased reps, I guess.

But, like, you would think that some of it was actually the ability to see the pitches themselves. Like I know, you know, like Aeohanios Juarez talked about how it helped him kind of get out of a funk along with a bunch of mechanical changes. And this is, I think, part of the problem, too, is that they are so rarely doing only one thing, right? And so identifying that one thing as the thing that unlocks it can be a little bit tricky because you're Aeohenio and you are using the trajectory machine, but you're also changing your, you're, you're, you're stance so that you're so much more open in the box, like you're doing all of these things simultaneously and alighting on the effect of any given change seems like it would be kind of

challenging. So there's that part of it too. Yeah. Do you just like saying trajectory effects? That is pretty fun to say. Yes. Yes. And there's no perfect replica, of course, for the game situation and just that environment and atmosphere and pressure and intensity. And then also So there's something to the pitch actually being physically released. Yes, it, now I guess it has trouble mimicking some extreme release points or something like Cressale or something. Maybe it could handle you savage and his over-the-top delivery. But even just, you know, even if they have like a video overlay of the pitcher delivering the pitch, it's still not exactly the same, of course, as having the flesh and blood guy out there. So it's possible that it's not completely transferable,

but it certainly seems as if it would help to some extent. Yeah. I remain curious about that and in search of confirmation. Of a trajectory effect. Yes, indeed. And then just a little less couple of non-playoff related tidbits. First, it was reported by Mark Vinesand of MLB.com that the occult swallows of NPB will in fact be posting Munitaka Morikami, which is not a surprise.

That's everyone was anticipating that that would be the case even going back a few years. It seemed like this would be the offseason. But further confirmation that that will be happening. So that's something to anticipate. After the postseason is resolved, we'll have the posting situation surrounding Murakami. And he had a very fine comeback, bounced back season. this year, because there was a ton of hype about him back in 2022 when he set the single-season home run record.

He had 56 homers. He was Bonzi, and he had a 225 WRC plus. And that was when I wrote about Morikami and Sasaki just as like, these are the best young baseball players in the world. And they're playing in Japan, and someday they will be in MLB. So now we're seeing the potential of Sasaki start to be realized, and we will see Morikami somewhere next year. So he had a couple down years for him, you know, where he hit 31 and 33 homers and had a 153 WRC plus and 156 WRC plus. Still excellent, but not quite generating the level of attention and excitement about his potential posting.

But this year, in a partial season after he had returned from injury, 56 games, 224 plate appearances, and he hit 22 home runs in those 56 games with a 210 WRC plus. So he was more or less back to being that 22 guy. Yeah. And he's still 25 years old. He'll turn 26 in February, you know, corner infielder. And he's going to get a big deal. I would think it's going to be a big sweepstakes for him. And so I'm excited to see him slugging over here.

And, you know, we can probably reserve further discussion or speculation about the ideal or most likely landing points for him. But we can wait until we don't actually have games going on and we need the hot stove to keep us warm. But I'm excited. I'm excited to see where he goes and when. Yeah, me too. I think it'll be cool. Yeah, that's going to be a big difference-making bat. And that's nothing new. A lot of these recent off-seasons have been defined by superstars from Japan, from Korea coming over, and many of them have starred subsequently. Though often, I would say, the highest profile imports are pitchers and the highest profile postees, if we can call them that, are pitchers, you know, with.

the exception of Otani who was both, but, you know, it's Yamamoto and Imanaga and all, you know, Senga and all these guys. And so it's exciting to have probably the top guy coming over just being a big, beefy sluggers. Yeah. You can crank gingers. And, you know, I don't know that anyone has made that sound as horny as possible. Just as a note. Just like, you're like, what's the horniest read of this I can give it? Yeah. This one. I don't know whether there's any doubt about the power translating in his case. You know, it's a higher level and tougher league. And so there's going to be some something lost in translation, perhaps.

Perhaps. But, you know, with his build and his pop, he's an impressive guy. Yeah. He doesn't seem like the kind of guy who's like, oh, he could hit 50 in Japan, but, you know, can't clear the fence here. He's not a wispy little thing. Like, this is a guy who looks like he hits home runs. Yes, right. And lastly, I guess, there's been a bit of news or at least some notable discussion of the ongoing attempt to consolidate the broadcast package for MLB as Rod Manfred is trying to do and trying to change revenue sharing and, you know, make things more conducive to getting everyone in one big broadcast package just for the betterment of baseball.

And so the idea was, well, this sounds great on paper, in principle, in theory, you can see why the commissioner might want it or some team's owners might want it. But what about the likely holdouts, the revenue sharing payees, the teams that have big broadcast contracts, the teams that own their own RSNs, etc. Are they going to get on board with this? What incentive do they have to do what is good for the? collective if it doesn't benefit them or harms them or levels the playing field further. And that's been the big presumed sticking point. And there's been some question of, well, will this be a big lever for the players or a big point of discordance between owners in the CPA negotiations and how will that affect things? Well, lately there have been a couple cases that

suggested that some of those big market teams that might not be inclined to do this or to support this actually would be. So there was a quote earlier this month from Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy and the headline in the Sports Business Journal was Kennedy. Red Sox support centralized MLB media rights. And Kennedy said it's good for the entire industry. Major League Baseball and the commissioner and Deputy Commissioner have been working hard on it for a couple of years. So expressing support,

he said the economics will take care of themselves if you build a product that the consumers love, need, want, and can access. So the focus really needs to be on the customer and the fan and the economics will flow from that.

It doesn't always seem like the Red Sox have taken that advice. But it's a big puzzle and I think it's been great to see the industry come together to try to pull this off. You'd like to have a scenario where everyone is working together

on this to make sure all the games are available. And then one of the other possible holdouts, Stan Kasten, the Dodgers president, and the Dodgers have this incredibly lucrative long-term broadcast deal, which has a lot to do with their success. And he, also this month, speaking to CNBC, said, I think those ideas are really good ideas and could really spell a terrific new era for all of our fans when the day comes that there aren't blackouts when everyone can see every game that they want, no matter where they're located.

I don't know exactly how it's going to play out for every individual team, including ours. But I think we endorse those goals and we'll be looking forward to active participation in whatever is the best solution for baseball. So Mark Norman did a little roundup of this at baseball prospectus. What do you think? Does this signaling that they're receptive to this idea is a person? supportive of this initiative actually move the needle in your expectations that Manfred and co can get a deal done here? Or is this all bloviating hot air years before it will actually be hashed out in various conference rooms? Yeah, I don't know if I would call it

bloviating necessarily, but I think that teams, the two things can be true simultaneously. that a team like the Dodgers or the Red Sox can view their relative position in local media and in broadcasting as a tremendous asset for their team and also be mindful of like the long-term viability of that model. Like the Dodgers have a great deal right now, but I'm sure they're wondering what does their deal after that look like? Because it will have been struck in an era that has a very different linear cable landscape than the one that they were probably operating and when they struck their first deal. I know there are lots of complaints that people in the greater L.A. area have about their ability to access the Dodgers and like watch games on local

network TV. So I do think there is like a fan access question here that isn't just we want to have centralized revenue in a way that will give us a cudgel to use against the players in negotiations. So I don't know. I guess my answer is I don't quite know yet. Figuring out broadcast rights and how you get people to pay for the privilege of watching baseball is, like, a big question and an important one for the league and the teams to answer. And it's not necessarily only because it might allow them to, like, cry a poor. They do have to figure out this problem, you know, how big of a problem it is and how sort of pressing of a problem depends on the club. Like, you know, the Mariners shutdown route. Owning your own network, your own RSN isn't necessarily the best thing ever.

Like sometimes it goes wrong because Comcast decides to take your channel out of the basic package. So I don't know. I don't know. Me neither. Yeah. It's better, I guess, than the alternative of them saying, absolutely not. This is a non-starter. It's a deal breaker over our dead bodies.

But I guess I don't ascribe that much meaning to it at this point. It might be just sort of a, sure, pie in the sky, that sounds nice at some indeterminate date in the future. If it's good for everyone or good for the sport, okay. And then when the rubber meets the road and they actually start talking about this stuff, I guess there's no downside to them, at least signaling receptiveness, I guess, unless these quotes get thrown back in their face later because it turns out that when they're actually negotiating over things, they put their feet down and then people say, but you said, but, you know, they're not committing to anything in writing here. I also think that, like, I acknowledge a strategic value for the players or at least for the union when it comes to their CBA negotiation to not have a perfectly unified ownership class. Like, I do think there being some amount of disagreement there is actually strategically useful for the players.

but some amount of disagreement because if you have camps within the ownership groups that can't reconcile themselves then like how do you get a deal done at all? You know? So like there's there's a certain amount of you do have to you do ultimately your goal is to get what you think to be a fair deal done.

You want to get the deal done, right? Like they ideally they don't want a work stoppage. Like that's bad for everybody. I mean, it's worse for some cases. for others, and it might be a necessary pain. I don't mean to suggest they should take like a less good deal so that they can avoid a stoppage. I mean, last time they weren't the ones that initiated the stoppage, right? It was the owners. They locked them out. So, you know, but it is a, I think, a delicate thing. And you have to find your way to being able to like play

baseball and broadcast it. And everyone needs a good answer to that question. It's important for the teams being viable and thriving. It's important for the players getting paid. And again, I'm not in the business generally of handing it to Manfred. And I do think that some of the stuff that he has tried, if it ends up being like the permanent landscape for broadcasting is less good because having fracture is annoying for consumers and potentially very expensive, which is part of why he wants unified broadcast rates. Yeah. Yeah. So, like, that's not a, that's not an anti-fan proposition. And if they have the ability to control their own rights.

Like, I don't think Rob Manfred wants blackouts. I know that we give him grief. And we should because he often deserves it. But, like, I do think he is trying to be forward thinking on this question. Well, that's all I got. And I wish you well in coming to terms. Mentally and emotionally with whatever transpires. Yeah.

Hopefully you've been able to think about other things for a little while. I've been successfully distracted, thinking about, well, thinking about a Ryan Kirkring's pain, and now I have to be done doing that and think about the potential for my own. But maybe I'll find something else to distract me. What's in my inbox? This is another Zillow listing where they painted the brick. God damn it. Well, I waited to record this outro until after the end of Mariners Tigers Game 5.

And I waited. And I waited, and I waited some more. And I could have happily waited all night because, my God, that was good. That was so good. Not ultimately for Tigers fans. But for anyone else, most of all Mariners fans, amazing game. And speaking of Mariners fans, I messaged Meg. A Meg changed from the unsuspecting one you heard recorded hours earlier, not knowing what was in store for her or how loopy she was going to get.

That's the one I texted in the moments after Jorge Polanco's walk up. off hit in the 15th inning. To say, you know, I'm about to record the outro. If you feel like sending a little voice memo, share your thoughts with the world, or your incoherent crying or yelling for that matter. And although she was tired and emotionally drained and possibly slightly intoxicated, she mustered her strength and rallied, not rallied, rallied, summoned some true podcaster's spirit and obliged. So here's a brief word from Meg Rally, fan of the victorious Seattle Mariners, who now advanced to the ALCS to play the Toronto Blue Jace. I should start this by saying that I drank sake to start this game, and I did drink it faster

than I meant to. And then it lasted for so long. I think we should not overlook the role of Humpy winning the salmon run in Seattle's victory. We should also remember that I, I have never said anything about Jorge Polanco that hasn't been complimentary. The best player in baseball, the greatest man I've ever seen. Mostly, I can't believe it went on for that long. Several people checked in on me. They wondered if I longed for the zombie runner. I did not.

I longed for the release of death, but I am glad that it did not come so that I could see that. I, if I can be earnest for a moment, I'm quite overwhelmed by this team advancing to the CS, who will start game one of it. I do not know. I hope it's Brian Wu. Maybe it'll be Humpy. He's a winner, a new winner today. But I don't know.

I don't know if this is even good radio, except that it involved the Mariners winning. Goems, sunshine and lollipops, and, uh, I don't know, onto Toronto. So there's the wellness check on Meg that many of you requested. She is, in fact, unwell, and yet still with us. It was, as many people have pointed out, the longest winner-take-all postseason game in MLB history. And you know, during the game, we got an email from listener Michael, who had a pedantic point to make about winner-take-all games. If the winner of a game takes all, then there's nothing left to be.

taken. There can't be more than one winner take all game. There could be multiple games that are winner takes the series or winner takes the pennant, but winner takes all can only be game seven of the world series. Fair enough, Michael. But does the winner of the world series really take all? They take a title, but not everything. And for that matter, what is a must win game? Even if it's an elimination game. Must you win? Of course not. If you lose, life goes on. If a little less happily than it would have otherwise. But no, this is not the moment for winner-takes- take all pedantry, because that kind of felt like the Mariners took all. That's how good that game was.

It certainly took their all to top the tigers. Whatever happens from here on out, Mariners fans will have another classic ALDS game 5 to treasure forever. Meg just messaged me, I am a ghost, though not, of course, a ghost runner. We call them zombie runners around these parts. And look, that game was a great advertisement for zombie runner-free baseball. I will not insist that a 15-inning regular season game with much lower stakes hits the same, As a 15-inning double elimination game in the postseason, of course not.

But it was still healing after a season of zombie runner action to be reminded about the potential for infinite baseball, a game with so many close calls. By the umpires, by the managers, by the players, so many runners stranded, so many amazing escapes from jams, so many starters, excelling in relief. One could devote an entire podcast episode just to recounting the high points of that game, and perhaps we will. But, boy, baseball is great sometimes, isn't it? A lot of times.

Really love this sport. So, congrats to the Mariners and Mariners fans. Condolences to the Tigers and Tigers fans. It was a hard-fought game, a hard-fought series. And now, somehow, the games go on. I'm sure the Blue Jays would have been happy to have that game go on even longer. And I was right there with him. That was one that Vince Gully would have liked.

Many heroes. No goats. You can support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon. com slash effectively wild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going, help us stay ad-free, and get yourself access to some perks, as have the following five listeners. Mark, Carrie Gwyn, Jordan Yeager, Zach R, and Sean Plamer. Thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include the aforementioned playoff live streams coming up soon. Maybe one or more of them will involve the Seattle Mariners. Plus, monthly bonus episodes, prioritized email answers, personalized messages, discounts, on merch and ad-free FanGrafts memberships and so much more, check out all the offerings at patreon.com slash EffectivelyWild. If you are Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email, send your questions, comments,

intro, and outro themes to podcast at Fangraphs.com. You can rate, review, and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcast, Spotify, YouTube, music, and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook group at Facebook.com slash group, slash Effectively Wild. You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at our slash EffectivelyWild. And you can check the show notes at Fancrafts or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance and for staying up late to edit this outro.

Not that he could have fallen asleep quickly after a game like that. That'll do it for today and tonight and this week. Thanks as always for listening. We hope you have a wonderful weekend and we will be back to talk to you next week. Sometimes I still feel like that little girl Hearing grandma's handheld ladies Collecting baseball cards before I could read They say I waste my time

Tracking all these stat lines But it's here I found my kind They're all effectively wild You know