Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 242: The All-No-Bang-for-Your-Buck Team

Episode Date: July 12, 2013

Ben and Sam draft the worst player contracts to see who can spend the most money for the least production.

You choo-choo-choose me? Good morning and welcome to episode 242 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Prospectus. I am Ben Lindberg, joined as always by a sick Sam Miller. We have something special planned today. Not that special. It's still us talking about baseball. It's a regular, I would say, periodically we decide that we need to do some sort of draft. Once in a while, we feel the urge to draft things. And so if you've heard our draft episodes before, you know to turn it off and come back Monday. Yeah, right.

Yeah, before we start, just in case we lose a lot of people on the way, there are some baseball prospectus-related events coming up in the next few days that I thought I would tell people about. If you live in New York or in the tri-state area. There is the All-Star Fan Fest is going to be held at the Javits Center over the next several days. And I will be there a lot of those days. I'm going to be on three panels. I'm like a professional panel person.

On Saturday, I'm on a panel about stats and stuff with uh j jaffe and vince genaro i think it's from 3 to 4 p.m and then i'm gonna be on a couple on monday and tuesday also um tuesday from 10 to 11 i'm gonna be on a panel with jeff nelson and marlon anderson gonna be reminiscing about our playing days. Wow. Are you like moderating it or are you on the panel? No, they have actual moderators. What do the three of you have in common?

I have no idea. I guess, I don't know. They're going to talk about playing for the Yankees and the Mets probably. And I'll talk about playing for St. David's Grammar the mets probably and i'll talk about playing for st david's grammar school eighth grade all-star i don't know all right um i think we're we're taking questions from the audience so uh i guess i'm the i'm the stat guy who's supposed to argue with the players i guess maybe so we'll see how that goes. And then on Tuesday, there's a free BP event, like an all-star game pregame party at Foley's Pub and Restaurant on West 33rd between 5th and 6th. And I'll be there and Jason Parks will be there and Zach Levine and lots of other places. And there will be

free drinks and food. So come out to that and we'll see you there. drinks, and food. So come out to that, and we'll see you there. So today's draft was what's suggested by Dan Brooks. Do you want to go over the rules? Yeah, Dan wanted to know, theoretically, what the highest, basically, you could possibly pay per win would be if you put together the worst team ever. So the rules were, though, that you couldn't just draft all guys below replacement, because

then you'd pay infinite dollars per win. You must meet a certain minimum threshold. So these are the rules as I fleshed them out today. Ben and I are each going to draft one player at each position, including DH, three relievers, five starters, three reserves. One must be an infielder, one must be an outfielder, the third can be anything. So it's a total of 20 players. Because we're not drafting the final five, we'll assume those are making the minimum. So the total payroll must be at least $198 million, not counting the five guys making the minimum who we won't draft. So $198 million total is the minimum.

And the winner will, at the end of the year, be the one of us who compiles the fewest warp by our whole team. Now, the tricky thing is that if we just did it going forward, that would be no fun because it would involve basically predicting baseball, and we can't do that. We don't know how to do that, and so it wouldn't show anything. And if we just did the past, it would be too easy. So we're going to do a mix. We're going to sort of give ourselves a head start by counting all the games that have been played so far, but also counting all the games that have been played so

far, but also counting all the games that will be played. So the negative warp or the low warp in the books counts. However, we are also put on the spot to forecast the future to some degree. Now, if you manage not to get to $200 million, every million or $198 million, every million under is a win that you are penalized for. You are given a win. And finally, if you pick a player who does not play a single game this year, the salary does not count. So if you draft a player who is perhaps rehabbing right now prominently and he does not actually play a game,

at the end of the season, the money will be taken from your payroll, and if you're not above 198, you will get demerits. So, how does that sound? Is that good? That sounds good. I did some research. Yeah, as usual. I have a spreadsheet. Ben and I didn't properly decide how we were going to handle this, so Ben went and did research and I'm winging it. You're probably better than I did.

I have this big spreadsheet that I made with Katz contracts at BP by position. So are we going to draft by position or are we going to just draft? We're just going to draft. You can pick any position at any point. Okay. All right. So pick a number one to ten. All right.

Okay. Should I say it? We'll say it. One, two, three. Seven. All right. And I just asked Bill Hanstock to pick a number one to ten, and it is seven. All right.

You get to go first. Okay. All right. on stock to pick a number one to ten and it is seven so right you get to go first okay uh all right i gotta think think on my feet here uh because i have this all laid out by position and i didn't order it in terms of just overall um yeah i guess i'm gonna take with my first overall pick uh i'll take ver Wells. Okay. And, oh, that's a good one. I'm going to take Roy Holiday. Okay. That's also a good one.

All right. And now it gets painfully slow. Yeah. See, I feel like if we did this by position, then people could, like, follow along better. There'd be no strategy. Yeah. Okay. It'd be no fun. All right. Um, you know, fun, no fun for me. It might be a lot more fun for every other person. Okay. Uh, so second pick, I guess I'll go with Mark to share. Okay. Okay. That's a good one. I'll go with Paul Canerco. All right. Now, do we have to say where we're assigning these people? No, you get some roster flexibility.

Okay. As long as everything checks out at the end, right? You have to have someone in each position. You do need to have somebody in each position. We haven't come up with a penalty if you don't, but I'll trust it works out. The guys who are really valuable here are the guys who have already banked negative warp or almost no warp and are done for the year. Those are the valuable. So much cost certainty on those guys, or lack of production certainty. So with that in mind, I guess I'll go with Josh Beckett next.

Okay. Okay. All right. I have to – let's see. I'm going to go with there's a lot of good picks still yeah lots of non-talent on the board

yeah I'm going to go with geez Louise I can't believe he has he has been positive alright I'm going to go with Barry Zito. Okay, that's a good one. He's actually positive right now.

I'm shocked. Yeah, I noticed that. Okay, in that case, I will take someone I think who has produced a little less than he has and is making a little more than he has and is making a little more than he has Tim Lincecum yeah I was gonna I thought about him and the only reason that I didn't pick him is that I thought it was more likely that he would start producing although not not particularly likely I'll take Chad Billingsley. Okay, that's a good one. All right, I have a run on starters here all of a sudden.

A little bit. Okay, I'm going to take, man, there's a lot of positional, uh, there's like replacement level issues here. There are certain positions where, where there are some good options, multiple good options left. Um, all right. I think, I think I'm going to go with Derek Jeter next, just because it seems like there's not, not a lot of great shortstop candidates here when i was looking before so it seems to me that um that there's some positional scarcity there yeah what does he get paid these days 17 17 uh-huh uh i'll take um i guess gosh it's it's uh i i actually think it's likely he'll bounce back,

but there's so much negative value banked that I'll take BJ Upton. Yes, yeah, that's a good one. Okay. I'm going to take Michael Young next. Michael Young making over $17 million. There are other interesting third base candidates, though, Michael Young next. Michael Young making over $17 million. There are other interesting third base candidates, though. But, yeah, I'll take Young.

Okay. Let's see. Now I'm running out of things. I don't know how you're winging this. I'm in awe that you're actually doing this on the fly. I'll take Jeffery Cure. Jeffery Cure awe that you're actually doing this on the fly. I'll take Geoffrey and Coore. Geoffrey and Coore? Wow, he wasn't even on my board. Why not?

How much is he making? I don't know, probably, what, five or six? Probably six. Yeah, but a lot of negative value. Yeah. Okay. I mean, not to the world. No.

Yeah, Geoffrey and Cor making 7.5. Good pick. Okay. Next pick, let's see. I think, and this is somewhat risky, I think I'll take Matt Kemp. Oh, that is risky. It is risky. I'm not a believer.

He's making over 20, so I'm going to roll the dice. All right. Gosh. I mean, I feel like at this point this could win it or lose it for me. But I am – I mean, I can't let you get A-Rod. That's – yeah, that's – it's very, very high risk, very high reward. Because he might not – Because that's 30 reward. Because he might not come back. He might get hurt.

He might get suspended. There's a lot of uncertainty there. And, yeah, that's $29 million off the board if he doesn't play. That's brutal. And, you know, he could theoretically come and be a three-win player in the second half. But I would take it. I would take it just for knowing I'm not going to forfeit at the end. Yeah, okay. I think that's a good risk.

All right, then. I already have to share it first. I guess for my utility position, I will take Ryan Howard. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's a great one. Yeah, he fell too far.

Way too far. Alright, I'll take Josh Hamilton. Okay. Alright. Then... Wow, Ryan Howard would have been a... Ryan Howard's almost getting All right. Then. Wow. Ryan Howard would have been a.

Ryan Howard's almost getting as much as A-Rod. Yeah, I'm happy. Happy with that pick. There's no risk for you. Very little downside. Solid. Whatever happened to Hacking Mass? I don't know.

Yeah, I don't know whether there was just not enough interest or whether it was just too much upkeep or what, but yeah, okay. I think I don't love this pick, but I think I'll take I think I'll take Bronson Arroyo.

He's basically no value so far, at least according to Warp, and he's making about 16.5, which surprised me. Wow. Really? Yeah. Wow, that is a lot. See, this is where the research comes into play. It does. I'll take Clayton Richard. Huh. Clayton Richard.

Not even on my board again. Uh-huh. All right. Yeah. Arroyo, he might not be making as much as I just said he's making. Clayton Richard, tell me why. Because he's, I think he's having season-ending surgery, and he's currently at, like, negative 1.2.

And I may have—it might be a different person named Richard. I just saw this headline, like, 12—yeah, yeah, no, shoulder strain. So, yeah, I think he's—I think I just saw he's having season-ending surgery. And, you know, he's making five or six, so it's not a total zero in my salary. So Bronson Arroyo on Kotz is listed at 16.4 something, and on Baseball Reference he's listed at 11.5. This is a big difference. It is a big difference.

I don't know what we'll do about that. Well, I called him out, so that's that. Okay. Arroyo off the board. All right. What do I need? I need a catcher, a second baseman, a right fielder. All right. I think I'll go with Kevin Euclid for my utility infield spot. Okay. And I'll go with Houston Street. Yeah, good one. All right.

Now I think I'll go... now I think I'll go hmm there are a couple second basemen who seem just about even to me so maybe I can wait there okay you took Conurco

I need a DH alright let me just go with I guess Ted Lilly. Okay. Making a lot. I'll take Carlos Marmel. Yeah.

Okay. All right. Then before all the good relievers are taken I will take Heath Bell Okay The good relievers And So, let's see

I don't know if all the good relievers can be taken There's a lot of There's a lot of relievers that aren't very good. So I will take... I'm just so scared of drafting a guy who turns out to have a good second half. Even though I know these guys are all doing very poorly I'm worried like what if Brandon Lee has a great second half

right he's already got negative half a win or so banked yeah and there's other options like there are guys who are done for the year but how greedy am I going to be so I will take I'll take league.

Okay. All right. Then I'll take, I still need a right fielder. I guess I'll take, I think I'll take ethier. Okay. These are all names that I think, oh yeah, I should have thought Ethier. Okay. These are all names that I think, oh yeah, I should have thought of that. That's a good guy to have picked. But I didn't. No. None of these are names that I actually picked.

Interesting. So now everybody gets to just hear me think for a while. I wonder what percentage of people who clicked on this episode are still with us. It's a good question. It's a really good question. I'll take – I don't even know what positions I need. That's a problem. I'll take, I'm going with a slightly different strategy than you, I think. So I'll go with Jeff Kepinger. Yeah, you're really going for the guys who have that bad production. I'm going for the bad.

Yeah. Yeah, I am. That's a defensible approach. All right. I need a utility outfielder, and for that job, I'm going to take Carl Crawford. Uh-huh. Making $20 million man, and I'll have to just hope that he doesn't have a big second half I'll take

gosh does I guess we probably should have talked about positional eligibility I just saw Bill Hanstock reply to me because I never replied to him he just wrote, fun game. Yeah, because I didn't tell him what this was about. I'll take, you know, he's starting to come

on a little bit, but I'll take Ricky Weeks. Yeah, he seems like a good second half guy to me. Yeah, probably. Okay, I'm going to take I'm going to go with another reliever who's out for the year and

probably out for the year and doesn't really have any value accumulated. Mike Adams. That's who I, yeah, that's who I was thinking of instead of league. Yeah. I'm worried about money at this point. About spending enough? Yeah.

Huh. Oh, well, that's because he's a hitter. All right, all right, okay. I need to pick a player. That's what I need to do. Sorry. Sorry, everybody. Sorry for this. Sorry, Dan Brooks. Yes. For dragging you into it. Uh-huh. Yeah. I'll take, gosh, I don't know. I don't know who's left. I feel very bad.

I feel terrible right now. I feel very sad. I feel sorry to everybody. I don't feel good about what I'm doing right now. We should have had a pause mechanism in place. I could just edit out the minutes of

uh you could but you probably won't so Ichiro? okay I don't know he doesn't get paid that much. What does he get paid these days? Gets paid more than he should.

Seven million? Something like seven? I would have thought more. He gets paid, yeah, 6.5. Okay. Okay. Okay. I needed DH, and I was hoping to snag Canerco, but you took him.

And let's see. Justin Morneau has started five games at DH, so he's not eligible. We agreed on 10. All right, I'll take, in that case, Victor Martinez. Okay. I'm still a believer in, and he's started hitting a bit more of late, but his first test was lousy, so Victor Martinez it is. Uh-huh.

Okay. so Victor Martinez it is. Uh-huh, okay. So 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15. So I have five picks to go. Are you by chance keeping track at all of what positions are filled? I am keeping track of mine. Okay, so I need a starting pitcher.

I need a catcher. I need a starting pitcher. I need a catcher. I need a shortstop. And I have, oh, and I need a DH, I think. Yeah. Yeah, I think, well, I have a, I think I have a DH, but I need a first baseman if I don't. So let me check real quick on Paul Canerco. Canerco, he's eligible.

He is? Yes. Okay. Well, that's helpful. So I need a first baseman or a DH. All right. I'll take... I don't know, Adam Dunn. Okay.

All right. So this one might sound strange, but I think for my last relief slot, I'm going to just take the most expensive reliever there is. Jonathan Papelbon, who's making $13 million, and he's pitched pretty well, but in a way, this is kind of

gaming the system, because Warp just doesn't value relievers very highly, even the good ones, because it's not factoring leverage in. So between that and the fact that his velocity has been down and his strikeouts have been down, I'm going to go with Papelbon at 13. I don't think he's likely to have a good enough second half to make that very valuable.

Okay. I'll take Reid Brignac. What's he making? Probably the minimum. Interesting. And how bad has he been? Negative 1.1 warp. I'll be interested to see whether you make it to 198 million.

I think I'm there. Really? I think I'm basically there. And I have three picks to pad. Now, I need A-Rod to play a game. Yes. But otherwise, I think I'm safe. And I have another.

I feel pretty good about one more pick too. Okay. I'm going to take – let's see. I've got three spots left. I'm going to take Dan Ugla. Okay. I'll take Jeremy Guthrie. Okay. Alright, I need a starter and I need a catcher.

I'm going to take the starter and that starter is going to be... Do you still need a starter? I don't, no. All right. I'm going to take, I guess, Dan Heron. Okay. I almost went with Ricky Romero, but he's making about half of what Heron is making. I just went with Ricky Romero, but he's making about half of what Heron is making.

I considered going really risky and taking Matt Cain on the off chance that he is hurt or something because he's making $20 million. But no, I'm going to play it safe. I'll take Heron. Okay. So I need a catcher. Unfortunately, there aren't that many catchers. We're getting taped very much. And it seems like the... So yeah, he's no good.

I'm going to take... Let's see. Wow. Our system really likes catchers. I'll take Miguel Montero. Wow. Our system really likes catchers. I'll take Miguel Montero. Yep. I would expect him to be much better than he's been, probably. But he is making $10 million.

All right. I am going to take Kurt Suzuki. Okay. At 6.5 or so. All right. And so then this is my last pick. at 6.5 or so. All right. And so then this is my last pick. Tough call.

Tough call here. What do you need? I need a utility. So what do you need? I'm done. Oh, yeah. That was your last pick, huh? So I need a utility. And I would say I have three things I'm considering. If I'm confident enough in my salary math, I could take Danny Espinosa.

If I'm slightly less confident, I could take Starlin Castro, but I think he'll probably end up being pretty good. And I could hedge, and that's what I will do, and go with Ike Davis. Oh, okay. What's Ike Davis making? $3 million. Seems like you took a lot of low-salary people. Well, you only need $10 million per spot, and I got a bunch of 20s,

and even the guys who are low are making a few million so i don't really know this is going to be interesting to add up i could be completely off like what does holiday make how they make 20 yeah i'm i'm adding mine up right now. I've got everything in my spreadsheet. So I'll be able to give my total in a minute. So then we'll check back at the end of the year and add everything up? Yeah. All right. And we might as well now do an update on our last draft.

Oh, the under 25 pitchers, right? Yeah, which I don't believe that one ends until we're dead, or until every pitcher on the list is dead, which will probably come after. So it will just be an update, though. We drafted 24 pitchers who were under 25 at the time, starting pitchers, ranging from Alex Sanabia and Jeff Locke to Clayton Kershaw and Matt Harvey. And so since we did that, which was on May 12th, you are leading by all measures, although it's fairly close. By innings, you have about 100 more innings than I do.

By ERA, you're 3-2-1, and I'm 3-3-8. And by FIP, you're like around about 3-4, and I'm around about 3-7, mainly because I've had a bunch of bad home runs, but also because Jeff Locke was the last. Yes, I remember neither of us wanted Jeff Locke. It was like, oh, I guess I'll take Jeff Locke if I have to. Yeah, so that's worked out for you. I'm not confident that it will continue to work out. So we're at 758 innings for you, and I guess probably I would expect that we'll end up around 12,000 maybe? Mm-hmm.

And so it's just a blink, but still. You're doing well, Ben then just as everyone expected just as the one commenter who evaluated our teams predicted that was the consensus um well i'm impressed that you kept track of that uh so my total for my team is 309.3 million. See, I knew it. I knew you should have taken Espinosa. Possibly $5 million less than that, depending on what Arroyo is actually making, but comfortably over $300 million. So I would say that Dan Brooks will approve of you for,

even though you didn't have to go that high, I think Dan really wanted to see how extreme. And I think Dan would think that I was probably cheating a little bit by taking the Kepingers and the Ike Davises. But, you know, we set a minimum. Yeah, it's legitimate. Thanks for the idea, Dan. Okay, so that's our last show of the week.

Send us emails at podcast.base baseballperspectives.com. I was going to ask people to rate and review us on iTunes, but maybe not today. Wait until we have a better episode. If you do have other things you would like us to draft, though, we love these. We love the draft episodes.

They are by far the easiest for us to do. Well, that wasn't easy for me. I put some serious time into that. But it was fun. Anyway, I hope people learn one or two things and stayed awake throughout. All right. We'll have a wonderful weekend.

And I guess we're doing shows regularly, right? Next week when there's no baseball, we'll be a wonderful weekend and I guess we're we're doing shows regularly right next week when there's no baseball we'll be we'll be talking anyway we did it all off season I guess we can do it for an all-star break so we'll be back on Monday