Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2424 The Perfect Fits For Free Agents

Episode Date: January 11, 2026

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about how the on-ramp for learning about sports analytics has changed since they were students, follow up on players who unretired after becoming coaches, break down the Edward Cabrera trade (and the Michael Lorenzen signing), and then discuss the remaining top-10 free agents (Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Framber Valdez, Cody Bellinger, Bo Bichette, and Ranger Suárez) from three perspectives: where they’d have the biggest impact, where would be most fun for them to sign, and where they will sign. Audio intro: Garrett Krohn, “Effectively Wild Theme” Audio outro: Philip Bergman, “Effectively Wild Theme” Link to Rice job listing Link to Andres class article 1 Link to Andres class article 2 Link to Sabermetrics 101 MOOC Link to Mota article Link to Quirk bio Link to Chambliss bio Link to “Conformity Gate” Link to Ben on Mass Effect 3 Link to Baumann on Cabrera Link to Cabrera pitch values Link to worst fastballs Link to Andrews on Lorenzen Link to FG top 50 FA Link to Petriello on Tucker Link to Gelb on Bichette Link to IF fielding value Link to team payrolls Link to team SP depth charts Link to team positional projections  Sponsor Us on Patreon  Give a Gift Subscription  Email Us: [e-mail]  Effectively Wild Subreddit  Effectively Wild Wiki  Apple Podcasts Feed   Spotify Feed  YouTube Playlist  Facebook Group  Bluesky Account  Twitter Account  Get Our Merch! var SERVER_DATA = Object.assign(SERVER_DATA || {}); Source

We're going to crunch those stats. We're going to talk about baseball, sticky stuff, and torpedo bats. We'll talk about it all if you want good takes on baseball and life. Just tune in a bed and his lovely co-host. Ben and Meg, it's effectively wild. Hello and welcome to episode 2424 of Effectively Wild, a Fangraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Rowley of Fangraphs and I am joined by Ben Lindberg of the Ringer. Ben, how are you?

Quite well. And you? I'm okay. Okay. I was thinking because of a post published on your very site, Fangraphs, not famgraphs, but fan graphs. This was published this week and it was a job posting. And usually I skim over the job postings. They're usually for a team job or some data provider that works with teams.

This one, though, was for a professor in the practice of sports analytics at Rice University. Yes. And it says the Department of Sports Management at Rice University in Houston, Texas, seeks applicants for a full-time, nine-month professor in the practice position to further expand at the department's sports analytics major. This non-tenure track position has a start date, up July 1st, 2026. The primary focus of this position will be the field of sports analytics, both the performance

side and the business side. It goes on to say some stuff about the prerequisites or what they're looking for, and then it talks a little bit about the program. And I was just thinking that this would have seemed so wild to me when we were in school. Yeah. I did not attend Rice, but when we were attending college, this sort of thing was not really available, at least if it was, it was. Very rare. I know that Andy Andres at Tufts started his Sabermetrics 101 course in 2004.

So I guess if I had gone to Tufts, as one of my best friends did, then perhaps I would have taken the Sabremetrix 101 course. But there was nothing like this where I went to school and probably where you went to school. And sports management or sport management or sport analytics specifically, there's just not a lot like that. there and I wonder how it would have changed my trajectory if it had been whether I would have taken a course like that or whether it would have seemed so mainstream in a way. I almost feel like part of why I got into this stuff was that it was still sort of for outsiders a little bit. You wanted to be edgy and cool?

Maybe, yeah, or I don't know if that's why, but it was kind of a perk. Like I felt like I was, you know, in the know, in the minority and there were sort of arcane secrets about baseball that I was learning and becoming aware of that most people weren't still. And so if I had just been able to take a class, maybe it would have just seemed so normalized that I wouldn't have been as intrigued by it. I don't know. So I wonder about that with the kids coming up today and going to school. There's just such a wealth of options to study this stuff in an academic setting, which just would seem sort of inconceivable to me at the time. I remember, I remember, I remember taking a probstats, you know, probability and statistics course mainly so that I could

understand Sabermetrics better and do Saber metrics better, but it wasn't as if the course related to baseball in any way. Prob stats. You sound like you're such an insider. You know, I just got to know my Probstats class. You know, prob stats. I was not an insider when it came to PropStats. I don't think I did that well in that class.

I'm pretty sure. I'm trying to remember. I think that may have been a class that I didn't. not attend very often. Oh, no. Yeah, I had pretty good attendance early in my undergraduate career, but then I got a little lax later on, as people do, you know. And so I think I might have been taking that even as a senior or something. And I'm pretty sure it was just a giant seminar, you know, in a gigantic lecture room. And I tried to structure my schedule to align with my weird day-night schedule or lack thereof. So if I could get late classes, I always did. And I think that may have been

one that just unavoidably was like at the crack of dawn from my perspective or something. So pretty sure I sporadically attended that class and that when it came time to take a test or something that may have taken a toll. But it was like, you know, at that point I was kind of over it, I guess. But I had pretty good attendance mostly. You know, I was a conscientious student for the most part. Are you worried your mom's listening to the podcast? No, I think this many years into effectively wilds, that possibility does not cross my mind that my mom might be listening to this podcast. I don't know how I feel about it as like a discrete academic discipline. I wonder, you know, I don't want to discourage anyone from applying for this position or pursuing it as a major.

I mostly think that like you should study things that are interesting to you in college. and you want to try to strike some sort of balance between practical skill, but mostly just learning how to think and problems. I think that's generally what college is the best at, inculcating in people, cultivating in people. But I wonder if you're not just better serves to take classes in it, but major in something a bit broader, like statistics or applied mathematics

or something completely different, you know? I'm the editor-in-chief of Fangraves, and I was like a political theorist, so what do you? And do I remember any of it, Ben? I mean, some of it, but, like, not as much as I used to. I always had to go to class as a senior because I was a social science major, and so I was in seminars with, like, three other people. So you kind of, like, had to be there, you know? Right. Because your absence would be noted if you were not.

I do remember one time I skipped a class for, oh. opening day just so I could watch baseball all day. And I did get called out on that by a teacher. It was just like a single doubt about how I had not been there. And I don't think I like, it was not typical for me to miss, but for whatever reason it did not escape the professors notice that time. So I felt like I was on the spot. Maybe so. Maybe so.

I forget who it was or what class it was or whether they connected it with opening day or not. Yeah. Yeah. So I don't know. I think that it's good that the option. out there, I guess. Sure. I'm certainly encouraging of younger people to get interested in the stuff that I'm also interested in.

And if it's easier to study and become expert in, then that's good, I guess. It's good for these things to be more accessible. Sure. And maybe it could be your gateway to something. I mean, maybe if you don't major in sports management or sport analytics, but maybe you'd take a class in it. And then because often I think that. baseball can be helpful or sports just in general to get people interested in math who might not be otherwise interested in math, but suddenly, hey, sports stats, this can help me understand

sports and we can put it in terms of sports. And therefore, it's interesting to people who might not be interested in an abstract sense. So, yeah, maybe it could be the way that you find out that you are kind of interested in this stuff. And whether you continue down that track of working in sports or not, then maybe you can still apply those skills in some way. And realistically, I guess if I were in school now and my school was offering something like that, I probably would take that class because that's what I did in college. I definitely took classes that I was interested in, much more so than something that I thought could like pay off in a lucrative career down the line or something.

You know, I never had any illusions about that or about like, oh, yeah, I'm going to make this this degree work for me and I'm just gonna you know. You're an English major? I was. Yes. I was. So that's that's my credential when it comes to, you know, not maximizing my earning potential. I'm not knocking it, to be clear. I love English majors. I just was trying to map it. I couldn't quite remember. Yeah, I was English major and history minor. And I took lots of classes that just peaked my interest. I took an astronomy class. I took a linguistics class. I took well, I took an American Studies class

that I think I've talked about before on the podcast that was about American history and baseball and just an influence on me. So, yeah, I think if you put that catnit in front of me that I could just take a sapermetrics class or something. Yeah, I'm going to... Instead of prob stats. Yeah, right, exactly.

Yeah, I mean, I think sports stats much more appealing than prob stats. My attendance would be better. If it tickles your fancy, great. And like, here I am. I'm a political science major. I mean, you know, like, who am I? Who am I to talk about the applicability of a thing?

I worry about hyper-specific majors just because who knows what the field of sports analytics is going to look like 10 years from now. But also, to your point, I think, you know, broadly applicable and useful for any sort of data analysis. So I think it would probably be fine, not on tenure, though. Yeah. Yeah. And the other reason, I guess, why it might not make sense to use your valuable credits on that is that you can educate yourself in Sabermetrics specifically quite well, quite easily just using online resources. There's just such a wealth of information out there. And even I think Andy's Tufts class, which then maybe moved to Boston University, but then it became a MOOC. Do people still talk about MOOCs massive? of open online course. Yeah, you know, like MOOC. A MOOC, with a C at the end. Yeah, like a web-based online class.

Am I betraying that I went to a Division III All Women's College by not having ever heard that term before? Well, I think MOOCs kind of came along after our college careers as well. And perhaps they have already peaked and declined. I don't know. But, you know, you can take a course online, right? And there are Sabermetrics courses that you can take seminars online. or just informally, just read fan graphs, read baseball prospectus.

There's so many books and so many resources if you want to learn to program through baseball or sequel or R or whatever. There are entire books, you know, learning baseball through R and statistics through R. So you can just get yourself a library informally and be self-taught or sort of tutored by the collective consciousness of Sabermetrics that has just put stuff out there for decades. So that might be a reason to say, do you need to take a class in this? Or can you just avail yourself of the many resources that are out there? But I don't know. I would be unable to resist the Siren Song of Sabermetrics, I'm sure, in that setting. I mean, I think a class, a class for sure.

Take a class. Find an interesting way to engage with a subject matter like statistics, certainly. I think that there's a, you know, like there's different. value in having someone, if you're interested in Sabermatrix as a field, having someone who has expertise and has gotten their arms around all of the literature that has come before, I think, is incredibly valuable. Because I, you know, I have this experience sometimes when I get pitched like freelance pieces, or, you know, maybe when I'm helping to review the work that is being pitched for presentation at Sabre, because I sit on that committee,

all that I've done bad jobs this year, been too busy to really do what I'm supposed to, where a piece will be interesting, a research project will be interesting, but it's also clear that that person is maybe not steeped in the work that's come before, and so it doesn't end up making sense to sort of pass through because the question that they're interested in has maybe not been solved, but at least the way that they're going about trying to solve it has already been presented in other venues. So I think having someone who can kind of help to orient you in the literature and give you a sense of what has come before is immensely valuable. And also, I just think, and I don't say this like in a devaluing it kind of way,

but in just a way of acknowledging that like pretty much anything you see. study in college has some value. I don't think you need to be so persniquity about like the classes you take in college. I think you're going to glean something from a reasonably well-taught college course and that something might be, you know, particular subject matter, expertise or exposure. It might be as simple as like learning to your point, like a method for approaching a problem or like a way to think about something. So I think having a pretty diverse and why I mean, I'm a liberal arts college grad, so clearly I think that, like, a broad exposure to a lot of different subjects has merit. Yeah.

Even if, as you're approaching your 40th birthday, you're like, I don't remember what Seneca said specifically. I'd have to go look that all again. In there somewhere, hopefully. Is it? Well, you know. It informs your thinking in some way. Sure. Yeah.

Yeah. And I think, you know, particularly in this moment where I think, I think, you know, a big part of your homework, as it were, as a college student, is just resisting the siren song of AI. Like, if you can engage in a class that makes you think about stuff and is interesting to you

and unlocks the subject matter in a way that you maybe didn't anticipate, like, that's worthwhile for sure. Yes, and this is coming from a couple liberal arts people, but we always say it's helpful to have a wide grounding in various subjects. I mean, certainly as a writer and as a thinker,

just different. disciplines, you know, just for making analogies and being aware of history and what has happened before and not just the history of Sabermetrics, but also just the history of the world, you know, and other inquiry. So, yeah, it is probably intimidating if you're just coming along now and starting in Sabermetrics because the corpus of baseball research is so vast that where do you even begin. Yeah. And the previous generation of people producing that work, large are now behind the team curtain. They're all just working for teams now, and so maybe they're not mentoring the next generation of public analysts who then inevitably get snapped up to work

for teams very quickly. So, yeah, maybe it's a lot to catch up on. But there are a lot of books out there that kind of hold your hand and, yeah, just primers introductions to this or that, and lots of old books and research that still holds up. So yes, I would say it's helpful to have a broad base of knowledge, whatever you go into. But it's just so different, you know, just seeing that job listing on Fangrass kind of hammered at home to me in the 20 years or so that we've been out of school that it's just kind of become commoditized in a way. It just never would have occurred to me that I could take a course in something like this. And so now lots of schools just have whole departments and disciplines and courses and people employed to teach this and armies of people

who want to do that and then enter the workforce and then it's just increasingly competitive. And so how do you even stand out? So when people ask me for advice, I just always feel bad because I just, I don't know, it's a different world than it was then, really. And I don't know how generalizable, anything that I did in my career is really how widely applicable it is to any other person. Everyone always sort of finds their own way. So I might be able to offer some general tips, but certainly the environment has totally changed when it comes to the media or teams or the number of people out there who do this sort of stuff or want to do this stuff. So there's more demand, but also more supply. Anyway, it's just kind of wild. I don't feel that old or like I've

been out of school forever, but this is just commonplace now. And it just, it would have blown my mind back then. You're right. And this is part of what I mean in terms of like a changing so fast that it can be hard to give constructive advice. Although I think if I could go back in time, Ben, and change one thing about my educational trajectory, I would have taken Spanish. I think that that would have been the one thing. I mean, there's other stuff that would have been nice. But like, that's the, that's the one that I have the most active regret over. You know, as a person who works in media and And it's certainly super useful if you're trying to get team side employment. So that's, I think that's the one that I feel confident in, like, it will take Spanish.

Don't take French. What use? Sacherblancel. I feel even worse because I did take Spanish and I got very good in Spanish. I was near fluent. I mean, I kind of conversational, certainly. And, you know, went on trips. It was great, but it's not great anymore.

because I didn't keep up with it. I went on a trip to Ecuador with friends on sort of like a service trip, and we were there for weeks, and we could just get by and talk to people. It wasn't perfect, but I felt pretty comfortable doing that. And then I just kind of lost it. I can still read it decently, but I wouldn't want to speak it or wouldn't feel comfortable doing that now. So I'm hoping that my daughter will study Spanish, and then I can essentially retake it with her through her, helping her with her homework or something,

and thereby familiarizing, re-familiarizing myself, refreshing my memory, and hopefully it'll come back kind of quickly. But that I feel even worse about because I put all that time and effort into getting good at it, and then I still just let it slip away. So that was silly. Anyway. That is silly. Yeah, I was just like, you know, a dumb 12-year-old. And I was like, French is the thing to do.

And it's not. Yeah. I guess that time has passed. Okay. Still a lovely language. Okay. Oh, a beautiful language. A beautiful language.

But in terms of its use to me, quite limited and candidly, I think that, you know, if you live in the American Southwest, Spanish is useful even if you don't work in baseball. Yeah. So there you go. Okay. To quick follow-ups or I guess on the same subject. to last time we were talking about Daniel Volpeck being a coach now, and I threw out there that we don't often get coaches who unretire and become players again, that sometimes players will unretire.

But typically, once they commit to the coaching track, they usually stay there. But I asked the audience, for examples, of players who have unretired after becoming coaches. And a couple people submitted some Terry Patreon support. quarter said you asked about examples of players becoming coaches, then coming back as players. That happened in 1980 when the Dodgers brought back pinch hitting king Mani Moda. I should have remembered that one because that was a pretty famous one. He played forever and had a couple seasons in his 40s where he was just kind of hanging around. Terry writes he had retired after the 1979 season to become the team's hitting coach

but was activated on September 1st. He got a clutch hit in the season-ending series when the Dodgers swept Houston to for some Monday playoff against the Astros, which they lost. So in 1980, that was his age 42 season. Wow. And yeah, he did play seven games. And he batted 429. He went three for seven, which is not bad at all after that long a layoff and at that age.

And Terry was kind enough to point me to a clipping from the Los Angeles Times. August 1980, says the Dodgers who had placed Pedro Guerrero, but it calls him Pete Guerrero. 1880. On the 21-day disabled list, not injured list, activated their 42-year-old hitting coach, Mani Mota. The Major League record holder with 147 pinch hits. Grero's left knee will be placed in a cast for two weeks and he'll need one additional week before he'll be ready. That will be with one week remaining in the season. I feel excited and happy, Mota said before the game. It's a great honor for me to come back. There were rumors about it, but I just tried to think about my duties as hitting coach. I tried to get the guys ready. I've been taking some hitting lately, but first I've

been trying to help our hitters to take care of them first. Modus teammates were, of course, delighted for him. Papa, Rick Monday asked him before the game. Papa, makes me think of 11 in Stranger Things, which I have on the brain right now. But also, Papa, you're probably pretty old if a favelia teammate is calling you Papa. Papa, what's this six decades you played in? I guess that was a slight exaggeration. But he did debut in 1962 in the big leagues. Of course, he then came back one more time for the Dodgers in 1982, Moda, that is. And he played one game and had one at that and one played appearances.

It did not get a hit. That was in his age 44 season. And that was finally it for many moda. But yes, he is kind of a legendary unretire example. And Rick Monday, who was calling him Papa, that was his age 34. season. So that's how old Mani Mota was. Excellent example. And listener Jake wrote in

to say Jamie Quirk was a coach for the Cardinals early in 1984 before the White Sox signed him and he went on to play in MLB through the 1992 season. So he played for a long time after this happened. And he sends me a link to the baseball reference bullpen

page which says the 1984 season was a rather full year for Quirk before the season began. He was released by the Cardinals and named to their coaching staff. He was signed as a player by the White Sox in May and appeared in three games for the club before being sold to Cleveland in September. He hit a homer in his only at bat with them and they released him after the season. But yeah, he had a fairly long afterlife as a player after having become a coach. So that's kind of interesting. That's, I mean, that's premature. That's like half of his career was after

he unretired as a coach. That's interesting. Also, Jake submits Chris Chambliss, who was activated for one game in 1988 when he was also the Yankees hitting coach and links to the Sabre bio. On May 7, 1988, the Yankees placed first baseman Jose Cruz on the disabled list

with a sore left knee and activated their hitting coach, 39-year-old Chris Chamblis. Chamblis was stunned when manager Billy Martin informed him that he was being activated. How about that? It's just like, okay, get in there. You're on the roster suddenly. Chris's last official at bat came in Arlington, Texas, against the Rangers on May 8th in a pinch hitting role, batting for shortstop Raphael Santana against Dale Mahorchuk.

Chambliss was called out on strikes. He was deactivated two days later. So that was a brief return to active roster status. But all of these examples were in the 80s. So I don't know if that means anything. but no one has mentioned a more recent example, at least in the big league. So maybe this kind of thing, as I was saying,

it seems to be pretty rare. But not unheard of. There is precedent. Don't you have to make room for them? How do you surprise, activate someone? You're like, oh, I got to do, don't you have to do like 40 men and Janquins? It's not like your bench coach sits on your first.

Yeah, I'm sure they had to make roster move too. Yeah. Yeah, it's interesting. he wasn't training for it or anything. It's just surprise. Also, the light up. Yeah. Man, me is really the friend of the semi-retired baseball player, right?

Other people's fault he needs. You shouldn't have to put a cast on your knee. I feel like cast and joints shouldn't go together. Also, I haven't watched The Stranger Things final season. I feel like people make it sound like I don't need to, you know? Yeah. I think it was fine. At least the finale, but many people are of the,

opinion that it was not fine. I think they're overreacting. But it is, in fact, over now, despite the people who became conspiracists and thought that there was going to be a secret extra episode that was going to resolve everything to their satisfaction. That didn't happen. The fact that they felt like that was necessary, though, maybe it makes me think that I should focus on other things. Yeah, well, I think they're wrong. I think it's fine. Yeah. It wasn't amazing, but the show as a whole was mostly not amazing. I enjoyed it. I like being back with the gang in Hawkins again.

But the first batch of episodes this season was strong, I thought. And then the second batch, not so much. And then the finale was fine. But maybe I didn't have as high expectations as other people. I don't know. I just, I think we're trapped in this cycle where when something is extremely popular, as Stranger Things was and is, then we get caught up in this cycle.

of coverage where most of the millions of people who watched it think it's fine or like it or just don't really think much more about it at all. But then there is a very vocal subset of disgruntled fans who it can make their feelings felt and tweet and post on Reddit, etc. And then everyone starts to cover this conspiracy and then everyone covers the coverage and it becomes this big thing. And I resent having to be this aware of people who are dissatisfied with things. I think it's okay for things to just end. But we've been through this cycle many a time. What was the petition to remake Game of Thrones season eight? And I'm with you. Didn't like that either, but didn't expect it to be remade or Rise of Skywalker, the Star Wars sequel

trilogy for that matter. It all traces back to Mass Effect 3 when the fans got their way and BioWare actually updated the ending. I wrote about this year's ago. Anyway, that's a long tangent. I'm just saying it's okay to let things end. Even if they're not, perfect in your mind. That's it. We're not, we're not entitled to our personal perfect ending for things. It's okay. Okay. Okay. So another thing we talked about last time, well, two things, really, we talked about the fact that the trade market had been pretty slow. And we talked about the fact that the Cubs had barely done anything this off-season. And two birds with one stone. We got a trade, and the Cubs made it. So we can talk about that a little bit. That's something. That's some stove action.

The Cubs traded for Edward Cabrera, which required the consent of the Marwins, his previous employer. And it's just your standard starter for a trio of prospects deal, most notably Owen Casey. And the Cubs get a starter without having to spend much money, which seems to be their preferred way to do things to upgrade their roster. Trade for people. Don't actually sign someone who might be expensive. So what do you make of the move and of Combrera and of how the Cubs seem to stack up?

I think it's fine. Much like the finale of Stranger Things. Well, I can't speak to that because as we've established, I haven't seen it yet and have been told that I don't need to. And I'm not like, oh, my God, the gap. The gap. How will I ever reconcile myself to a world where I don't know what happens to these teenagers who all look 30 now? So I think it's fine, and part of that is that I like an upside play for starter, and I have been convinced that Owen Casey's just okay.

If you think that Owen Casey is the top 100 prospect, then this maybe feels like an overpay to you because Cabrera has his issues, most notably a fastball that sometimes doesn't play very well, and a spotty track record of health. But if you think that the Cubs have a plan to address the fastball, if you think that his secondary stuff is very strong, which, you know, I think there's a good argument to be made there, particularly as it pertains to his curveball. And you think that, in case, he's like more of a, like a 45, which is what our prospect

team thinks of him. Then it seems okay. And like they have a, they had a surplus of that. Also, I think that the Marlins need to need it to bolster their outfield. So hey, good job. They clearly like this kind of guy. They being the Marlins and this kind of guy being Owen Casey. I think that they think that he's, that this profile is one that they want to be in the business of accumulating.

So cool, good for them. I think that if I were going to offer a constructive note to the Cubs, it would be that, they are in fact allowed to spend money and that they should try that. You know, if for no other reason, then it is a more fungible resource than baseball players. But considering that they seem reluctant to do that, I'm glad that they went out and tried to get a guy

to bolster that rotation because they sure needed one. I would argue that much like the Orioles, they might still need one, you know, like take an Ocean's 11 approach to building your rotation. and go get one more, you know, go get one more. Now, I will acknowledge here that, like, Justin Steele will be back at some point this season. So, you know, and he, he is quite good. And they have Matthew Boyd, they have Kate Horton, they have Shota, like, hopefully that goes better.

If you think that he was still kind of dinged up and that they can kind of write the ship there, then this is an interesting group. I think there's, you know, it's like a real land of contrast kind of rotation because there's big upside here and also like very obvious downside for a lot of these guys, either injury or performance related

or in some cases, both. So, but I, when he's going right, think that Edward Cabrera is pretty good and, you know, it seemed like he took a step forward last year in an appreciable way. So that's cool. And yeah, it just felt like two clubs that were dealing from positions that they thought they had some depth to trade from.

Yeah. I think it's fine. Yeah, it makes sense in that respect. The Cubs rotation projects to be 19th in war currently, according to the Fangraph step charts, which is... Need one more. Yeah, it's not very good. It's not that there's an obvious hole exactly. They go, you know, five or six deep with decent starters.

It's just they don't really have a top of the rotation guy. Yeah. They don't have a dude. And I, again, I like some of these guys a lot. I just think that they need a dude, you know? Maybe an exercise we're going to engage in later in this episode. Yes, indeed. Yeah.

So if Steele comes back, that helps. Cade Horton, I think probably a lot of Cubs fans think he's a dude. I don't think he's the kind of dude that he, his ERA showed last year, but I think he's good. Right. So all of these guys, yeah, it's like a rotation of sort of threes and fours. And maybe a two, depending on how you feel about some of these guys, right? Yeah, if Steel's healthy or if Cabrera can find another gear or Horton can be anywhere close to where he was last year. Yeah, but there's no, yeah, there's no like really scary guy as of now that you would say, oh, I don't want to face that guy.

a short series or something. Exactly. So, yeah, a dude would help. And Cabrera could be that guy, I guess. He could. It's just, it's interesting because Baumann in his blog noted that the Marlins sort of sold high on Cabrera in a sense in that he's coming off a career year, both in terms of innings pitched and just overall value and per inning value and everything.

But also, maybe the Cubs bought low as the Marlins are selling high because he could be better. This is the best that he has been, but he could be better because, as you said, his fastball sucks or his fastballs sucks. He just, he does not have that. Actually, if you go by the pitch value per 100 pitches, so rate basis, I just looked for starting pitchers last year, at least 100 innings pitched. He had the fifth worst four seam fastball and the 15th worst sinker. So either way, rocking a heart. place. And yet, he gets lots of whiffs on his curve and his slider. And Baumann raved about his change-up in his piece. I should have mentioned the change-up. I only mentioned the curveball, didn't I? It's sort of a singular pitch. It's goofy. Yeah, it's hard. It's almost fastball speed. It's not very differentiated from his fastball speed-wise, but it's not like a splinker exactly. Sometimes, Yeah, and so maybe he can fix his fastball, but maybe he just doesn't need one.

Is that possible? I mean, maybe he becomes a cutter candidate or something, but like if he has three pitches that are effective and his change up is like almost fastball speed, then maybe you just sort of shelf the fastballs or it just becomes kind of a show me pitch. Yeah. Why do you throw it at all?

It's like he threw it kind of through it more than you'd expect a pitch that bad to get through. Yeah. Yeah. I think that there is, there's continued room for improvement. And, and as I said, like, he had a, I thought, like a real step forward kind of a year for himself last, last season. So I think that you're right. Like, there's, there's a possibility that six months from now we're like, wow, they really, they really figured something out there. And they clearly moved a guy who I think that they are not as high on as, like, the highest public side evaluators were, right? Like you would assume that if they thought that Owen Casey was a dude, different kind of dude, because he's a hitting dude, not a pitching dude, that he would have played a bigger role for them, even though they obviously have some crowding in the outfield, although they don't have a Kyle Tucker anymore. Yeah. So I think the fact that they were willing to trade Casey, given the lack of a Tucker, kind of tells you what they think of Owen Casey, you know.

Yeah. But Casey's kind of the winner here, I guess, because he has a clear path to playing time. and he'll be an upgrade for the Marlins. Lots of people like Miami. Yeah, right. So I guess I get it from both perspectives, except that it just, it kind of depresses me that the Marlins are moving someone like this. I understand it because they do have pitching depth.

They're kind of like the pirates, in a sense, in that they have a good amount of pitching, or at least that's the relative strength of their roster. Yeah. And they just, they need offense. And so it does make sense to trade from the pitching surplus to shore up the weakness, at least in a world where you're the Marlins, and you just won't go get someone on the free agent market. Because the Marlins, if you just looked at the history of all the guys that they've traded over the years, it's sad because they have really developed a lot of talent. And yet, inevitably, it ends up going elsewhere. And it's not as if Cabrera is at the point where he's getting excited.

He's under team control for, what, three more seasons, and he's in line for like four million in arbitration, less than four million in arbitration. So even for the Marlins, he's very affordable. And it's not as if the Marlins are so far away from potentially being in contention. I mean, they were in quasi-contention late last season. They were barely under 500 with the run differential of a worst team, but still, they were kind of close. And so, It's not as if they're so far away that you think they won't have a good Marlins team while Cabrera is under team control. And so it's just, I get it because, okay, they're strengthening a weakness. But it's just if you're a Marlins fan after all these years and all these trades, it's just more of the same. It's just like you're stuck on a treadmill. You just get guys, they get good, you trade them, you get some young cheaper guy, but then you don't surround the, young cheaper guys with any talent. You don't spend any money.

And then it's time to trade the young cheap guys again because they're suddenly not quite as young or as cheap. So like, will they put together a good roster while Owen Casey's there or will he just be the next guy that they ship out three years from now? So it's like, are they getting closer? Maybe. I don't know. It's a new regime there, new administration and new management.

And they've brought in a lot of people and tons of turnover in the organization. everything. So you hope this time is different, but on the surface, it's just sort of same old Marlins, like whenever a guy gets good and is not even remotely close to free agency in Cabrera's case. Well, time to move on. I definitely get that. I mean, I think that, and you also have the additional, there's like a hurdle to trusting the process when, like, you feel like you've been on a perpetual motion machine for years. And then like the guy running the perpetual motion machine came from a different perpetual motion machine. And they're like, I'd like to get off that perpetual motion machine.

But maybe it'll be fine because maybe like you have an aptitude that you've shown for developing pitching and perhaps, you know, bolstering that with some offense is worthwhile. Although I just think he's fine. So then it's like, well, is it actually bolstering anything? Yeah, right. And the other prospects that they acquired are longer shots and further away. Yeah, they're definitely further away. The Marlins, even without Cabrera, do have a better projected rotation than the Cubs.

Now that's banking on a good season from Alcantra, not a siong season, but a decent season. And health from a bunch of other guys who haven't consistently been healthy. And I guess if you think that the Marlins' strength is pitcher development, then, well, maybe the fact that they couldn't, unlock Cabrera even more. Doesn't bode well for the Cubs transforming him, but you never know. Different organization, different messengers, change scenery, etc.

It could help. But he throws hard. He's got good secondaries. And I'm kind of optimistic. He lowered his arm angle. He has had just not only more effectiveness with the breaking balls, but better control, which has been key. But there is the

health. Yeah, he missed much of September, at least, with a elbow strain. And that had bothered him earlier in the season and also in 22 and then he had shoulder issues in 23 and 24. So yeah, that's sort of scary as it is for most pitchers. But he does have a history of being unable to throw a lot of innings. Yeah, it's, um, the downsides are obvious, but I think that there is real potential for positive variance, as we might say. Do you think that if I keep swearing in French that it's okay, that does Shane have to bleep that? Well, we do have some French listeners, but I don't know if they care about the bleeping, but

it's probably better for the kids, unless the kids are, unless the kids are studying French the way that you did, but perhaps they're less likely to be doing that these days. So maybe. Yeah, but the Cubs look, I think they're a decent team. It's just that if they want to really go after the Brewers and be the favorite in that division, and position themselves to make a deep run, you certainly would like to see them spend some money instead of restricting themselves largely

to the trade market and relievers. Right. It's just, you know, and maybe, you know, maybe a week from now will feel silly because they will have signed Kyle Tucker and they will have spent some cash. But it does seem like they constrain themselves in a way that is frankly bizarre given their market and resources.

So. Yes. Yeah. They're like 50 million bucks under the first competitive balance tax threshold. And there's no real reason for that to be the case for the Cubs. Have some self-respect. Yeah, right. Like, come on.

Come on. And I guess, yeah, they could be kind of exhibit A for, well, with this playoff format, there's not as much incentive to go from being a 90 win team to a 95 win team or whatever. And you just want to get in and winning your division. perhaps teams aren't placing as much importance on it. You know what their incentive is, though? They lost to the brewers in the low season. So I don't know, like maybe you have some incentive because what are you doing, though?

You know, like what are you doing? Yeah. Bringing back Tucker signing one of the remaining top starters would be smart for the Cubs. But yeah, we'll get to that in just a sec. The only other really notable transaction was Michael. Lorenzen, who went to the Colorado Rockies. Sure did. Colorenzen.

Is that anything? No. We don't have to mush. There doesn't have to be all this mushing of, you know. Yeah. Everything needs to be a portmanteau. Yeah. Well, I think it is wise to go to the Rockies if you want to be a starting pitcher as Lorenzen has been.

I don't know whether he still harbors hopes of hitting and being a two-way player or whether he's given up. on that dream. But if he wants to do it, the Rockies best case scenario really for whatever you want to do on a baseball field, because they are the worst team. So he can continue to be a starting pitcher in that rotation, I think, which would not have been a guarantee elsewhere. So yeah, you know, he's, he's okay, right? Like he's going to give you your 20-something starts, 25 starts, and be probably a bit below average, but there's a little bit of value in that. Sure.

Especially if you're the Colorado Rockies. Can you get up so many home runs, my God. Oh, yeah, that could happen. But, okay. Well, that's Lorenzen. So what we wanted to do today, we don't do this often, but this felt like the time to do it,

since as we noted last time, it's been a little slow for the top guys on the free agent market and six of the top 10, Fancraft's free agents as ranked by Ben Clemens at the start of the off season are still out there. And so we are going to do a little free agent fits exercise. We are going to not play GM exactly, but play baseball gods and say where these guys might go or should go or could go. And I figured that one entertaining way to do this would be to approach it from a few perspectives.

So we have these six top 10 guys remaining, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, from Rvaldez, Cody Bellinger, Bo Bichette, and Ranger Suarez. And I thought that we could each answer where we think they would help the most. So in a sense, I guess where they would be the best fit, where they would make the biggest difference, where we want them to sign for whatever reason, and where we actually think they will sign. and I certainly do not profess any soothsaying skill when it comes to free agent destinations, and this is just purely reading tea leaves and reading rumors, and nothing sourced or particularly insightful here, and probably just kind of throwing darts at the board, a limited board composed of the teams that we expect to actually be in the bidding for this sextet of players.

So I guess we can start with Tucker. And we can talk about where we think he would help the most. Where would Kyle Tucker be the biggest boon to a team? And by the way, I don't know how you approach this. However you approach it is fine. I kind of approached it in terms of not just how much these players would improve the roster, but also factored in the talent level of the team and its proximity to the playoffs. Because we could just say they help the Rockies.

Yeah. Yeah. They should all go to the Rockies. They should go to the Rockies. It would be funny if they all got together and decided that they all, you know, I hear Denver has been public schools. Yeah. Yeah. Right. Yeah.

I mean, my Campton, Denny Nagel, you know, just following their footsteps. It's a beautiful city. It is. Beautiful ballpark. I am a huge fan. I love Denver. Yeah. Yeah.

So, yeah, I factored in sort of, I guess, almost like championship probability. You know, I didn't do any math. or anything, but just like, you know, teams who are kind of in the sweet spot, that crucial part of the win curve where it might make the difference between making the playoffs and not or winning a division and not. Yeah, I took a similar sort of approach. Great. All right.

Who you got for Kyle Tucker and where he would help. So because we have where we want them to go and where they will go, I do feel like I can get a little goofy in this answer. I mean, I, and it's only goofy because they traded for a guy who seems like

he's going to be their solution, but like the Phillies seem like the obvious answer to me for Kyle Tucker. Now, I don't know like you're going to go the Phillies. But you should be a Philly.

The Phillies are, are contending team. And at least in terms of the way that our depth charts stack up now, now I'll remind everyone that right now the fan graphs

depth charts are the Fangraphs, playing times to play by Oster Resource and just steamer. But I don't think that the answer is going to be that different when we fold in Zips. The Phillies are third from the bottom. The only teams that they project better than, and granted, there are, you know, some of these

differences are small fractions of a win. In right field. You're talking about? In right field. Or the White So, the White Sox and the Rockies. So Philly and maybe close behind them would be the San Francisco Giants as sort of like nominal contenders, the other two answers here that are kind of interesting are, well, three answers, really, the Royals, Tigers, and Astros, who are all sitting in sort of the one and a half,

1.6 war range. But Philly, you know, Philly. Yes, it would make some sense, certainly, for him to go to Philly. But they traded for Dolos Garcia, so. Yeah, so that's, that makes me think, or they signed Adolese. They signed a deliscus. Yeah, he was non-tendered. That's right. He was not- Yes.

So it seems unlikely that they would have done that if they really had an eye on Kyle Tucker. But they should. Yeah, it would certainly help. It would help. They're outfield as a whole. It's a fairly weak unit. And, you know, center field has been kind of a hole or revolving door for them for a while. And maybe they want to try Crawford there.

Their prospect at that position, you know, give Dress and Crawford a shot, maybe. But, yeah, it's just been. a lot of like, you know, let's try Max Kepler or let's, you know, Harrison Bader was a decent fit there, but it's just lots of like glove guys, you know, Johann Rojas and then Nick Castiano's, obviously they're ready to move on from him. And then, you know, just like Auto Kemp and Weston Wilson and just, yeah, it was not a very productive outfield. It doesn't predict to be a very productive outfield. So makes sense, but given all the moves they've made and their financial commitments and everything. I figure it's a little less realistic, but that's not what we're

talking about in this category. We're talking about. We can be, feel free to be unrealistic here. I will. Yeah. And I had the Giants as my, where they would help the most. And I just think that, well, they also project to have a fairly lousy outfield. And it's not a great outfield. It's not a great offense in general, even with a full season of Devers. And, yeah. And, Yeah, he would really help there. I mean, it's sort of self-explanatory. I guess it's just kind of a pretty perfect baseball fit. And yeah, like, who would he even be replacing there or supplanting on the Giants?

Like Drew Gilbert, I guess, is penciled in that position. It's just, Mattos. Yeah, Kyle Tucker. Yeah. Be a big upgrade. Okay. And for the next category, where we want them to sign, I did repeat. in some cases. I had the same team

in two or three categories sometimes and I'll just say I had the Giants for Kyle Tucker, right? I think it would be fun if Kyle Tucker went to the Giants because we just talked last time about how boring the Giants offseason has been and also how they have struck out on some of their top targets in the free agent market and, you know, they missed out an arson judge

so they could go get another top free agent right fielder. That'd be fun. and they've just been so stubbornly 500 for years now that they've just been kind of boring. And I know that Kyle Tucker is maybe not the most scintillating player in terms of just, you know, he's such an all-around talent, but not the best at one particular thing. And he doesn't stand out so much from a personality standpoint and everything. So I'm not suggesting that he's going to be a big, you know, straw that stirs the drink kind of electric head. headliner or something, who's suddenly going to catapult the Giants into the headlines every day. But he's an excellent player. And they really could use an excellent player like that. So giants, where he would help and where I want him to help. I want him to be a royal. Okay. Yeah, that's a good one too. I want him to be a Kansas City Royal. Again, I don't think he will be. And I don't mean, like, I do feel like I am inviting the Royals to give up on.

the jack wagon perhaps prematurely. Far too soon to give up on jack. But also they should do it. Yeah. Because here's the thing about it. Their outfield right now is Caglione, Isaac Collins, who, you know, I like Isaac Collins. I gave Isaac Collins down-ballot rookie of the year consideration, right?

And Kyle Isbell. But like, they are sort of a one to two-man show from an offensive perspective. And that requires you to really buy the changes that Michael Garcia made. Now, I like Garcia. So I'm, they're a two-man show. But you know what would be nice? They were like a three or four-man show, right? It takes pressure off of everyone.

It's like, hey, then Vinnie Pasquantino doesn't have to, he doesn't have to be, he spent, like we haven't pencils in third in the lineup right now. That feels high, you know? That feels just because, and I like Vinny. This isn't a Vinny knock. And here I am, like betraying my fellow Italian. I'm doing hands while I'm talking. You know, there's a lot of gesturing going on here.

But I think that if you take the pressure off of some of the young guys, if you give yourself wiggle room in the event that Garcia regresses or Collins regresses or Cags can't take a step forward, you're just in a better spot, you know? And then it's like, then you got Michael Garcia and Bobbywood Jr. and Kyle Tucker, my God. Like, that's a dominant kind of little group there. You know? I really like that. I really would. Now, I don't think they're going to do it because they're the Kansas City Royals and they're like, hey, we already spent our big money on Bobby Wood Jr. But what better way to make that money work for you than to bolster it with another super reliable bat. Now, you're like super reliable. Wasn't he hurt for Lord's stretches? Shut up. Do it anyway. It's fine. It's very good. Yep, I have a lot of teams like this, some ALE Central teams in here where perennially it's like, you know if you guys went and got this guy, you'd be way better, right? You could do that. You don't have to just try to fudge it somehow. You could just go get the top. Now, you know, takes two to tango and everything. And maybe Kyle Tucker doesn't want to play for the Royals. This is all just pie in the sky. We're all just, you know, we're pulling strings. We're orchestrating things. They don't actually have to conform with what we want. to happen, but just from an entertainment standpoint.

And, and yeah, reinforcing the idea that the best players can play for not just a small sample of teams and that anyone's in the running counteract the idea that, you know, baseball's broken and only a handful of teams can sign the top guys. So we would like to see them distributed a bit more democratically, perhaps. Okay, so having said that, where do you think he will sign? So I don't know. That's so boring of an answer. It's like, well, yeah, we don't know either, Meg.

He doesn't know. He's not signed. He's not signed. So in the last couple of days, the teams that have been most frequently mentioned, Marlins Owen Casey draws Kyle Tucker comparison from whom? Sorry, I'm distracted by Google now. He's not nearly as good as Kyle Tucker. That's a comparison.

Oh, this is the MLB Network guys. Okay, never mind. never mind, I can just, I don't need to spend time being stressed about that. I think that the names that have been mentioned the most frequently in the last little bit have been the Blue Jays, which we talked yesterday about how, like, in some respects, kind of a weird roster fit just given the fact that, you know, they have like kind of an excess of outfielders, but also like, it would be fine, you know, like, can't you move Addison Barger around? like, you know, like, isn't it fine, really, you know?

Yeah, Springer can DH. Can't you just make Anthony Santa and Dare like a really expensive bench bet? Yeah, also. You can move to left or, yeah, like, if you get Kyle Tucker, you can make it work. You just can't figure out where you play Kyle Tucker, right? So Blue Jays have been mentioned. Also, I'm going to say a thing and then we should put a pin in the thought and we can return to it later.

I am fascinated by the fact that we spent all. of last off season hearing people talk about how the Dodgers are ruining baseball. And I have not seen that narrative when it comes to the Blue Jays. And that's funny given like where they are sitting from a payroll perspective relative to the rest of baseball just in a just in a luxury tax perspective. We'll come back to it. But it's it's interesting, Ben, you know? It's interesting. Because, like, they're not that far.

No, they're not that far, but, well, I don't know if you want to get into it now. But, yeah, I think it has to do with the fact that they are fairly new to that top, top tier. Whereas the Dodgers have been sitting there for a while. It's just funny, Ben. It's just a funny thing because they've been the most active team in free agency. And they have added all of this payroll. And they are not that far off of L.A. they're through the highest, like, uh, tier.

I'm just, I just find it interesting. I don't even really have a point about it. I'm not saying, I don't think it says anything necessarily. It's just interesting. It's just interesting to me. I think the other big part of it is that if the Dodgers hadn't been so good for so long, then people wouldn't mind their spending pretty much. I understand.

I understand all the differences, but I just think it's funny. And part of me thinks that it is explained by people mentally discounting it because they think it's in Canadian dollars. Anyway, it doesn't matter. So. I do think that, yeah, I think the Blue Jays are kind of underrated as a powerhouse right now. And I kind of made that case last time too. But it's because, you know, they've kind of vaulted into that territory newly.

And so it feels fresh. It's like, oh, we have a new entrance into the club of big spenders. And they don't have the same track record of always being good. And they haven't won a World Series lately. So although they get close. Yeah. Okay. funny.

But it is so, the Blue Jays are in that conversation. Apparently the Mets are thinking about an opportunistic push for Tucker, which is like a fascinating sort of little roster maneuver there. But again, surely, surely the Cubs should be in this conversation. I think he might end up a Blue Jay, man. Yeah. I think he might end up a Blue Jay. I have chosen violence and assigned him to the Dodgers. Okay.

I know that the rumors haven't been quite as loud about Tucker to the Dodgers lately, but I think they're lying in the grass. I think they're biding their time. I think they're waiting to see what his market is like. Could they get him on a shorter term high A-AV deal? Or maybe not. Maybe they're even willing to splurge on him, but just haven't been quite as vocal about it. Because they could use him, you know?

I mean, they're the Dodgers. Obviously, they're very good as it is. just in terms of roster fit and positional needs. But the roster fit is so weird because, like, what are you going to, where does Teo play then? Yeah, well, I think either you move him to left or you D.HM. And you just make Paix a bench bat. Yeah, I guess. Or, you know, again, I mean, it would sort of stink to block Paes and maybe derail his development a bit.

But it's Kyle Tucker. And I don't know that that stopped the Dodgers before. Right. And you could be like, yeah, maybe he and Tommy are kind of. of a like a little center field platoon and you guys around and yeah yeah because yeah overall the outfield picture for the dodgers is not strong right relative to all the star power that they have elsewhere so i think he would fit there and they certainly when there's an elite guy on the markets they have they make room they go after him even if it means just and Tucker's not old certainly by dodger standards he's not old and so i think he kind of

It's, you know, I mean, you'd like to see them if you're a Dodgers fan break in some new blood and have, you know, younger guys just to stave off decline. But if you can just keep replacing people with, you know, Kyle Tucker aged elite for agents, then it's not going to be that much of a concern as long as you're willing to foot the bill. But yeah, like their weakest projected positions other than second base, which could come into play in this conversation too, are left field. and right field. Actually, those are their two weakest projected positions,

left field and right field. And I have talked about Teasca Hernandez's defense, and I think the less of that they see,

the better. So, yeah, it's not, it's not quite as clean as it would be to slot him into the Phillies

roster or the Giants roster or something. That's another reason why I think it would be fun if the Giants got him

to sort of stymie the Dodgers and say, hey, we can get a guy too, not just our arch nemesis. So yeah, but I would not be shocked if the Dodgers kind of, you know,

waited quietly and then pounced on Kyle Tucker and touched off another round of baseball is broken. If they pounce on Kyle Tucker, though, I don't know. He's got breakable boats. Yeah, gently. Gently. Gently they can corral him. I bet to say, by the way, when we talked about Cabrera, because he was another guy who was connected to the Yankees repeatedly. I know. And we talked last time about the Yankees inactivity, and they were our number one team that should be feeling the heat needs to do something.

And the Cubs were in that conversation too. And so now the Cubs have stolen Cabrera from the Yankees. The Yankees have been connected to Freddie Peralta. And I guess maybe McKenzie Gore is still theoretically acquireable. But yet another guy who is removed from the market without the Yankees picking him up. So keep that in mind. as we continue to forecast these fits. All right, Alex Bregman, where would he help the most, do you think?

So I had him as the most useful to the Red Sox and also the Seattle Mariners and also the Arizona Diamondbacks. Okay. I will just say the Red Sox have swept all three categories for me with Alex Bruegman. For Bregman. Yes, I think it just makes a lot of sense. And he might still end up elsewhere and there are other teams that are interested. But it just seems logical to me. And also from an entertainment standpoint, not bad either.

So I'm just kind of all in on bringing Bregman back to the socks because... Not a Marcello guy. You don't believe in Marcello. You think Marcelo's a fraud? No, but... a little more, I mean, yeah, it's true. Like, you don't want to block him long term, and they already have kind of a complicated logjam

with position players and just how does everyone fit and a surplus at some position. So maybe it's a little awkward, but I don't know. I just think right now it's their weakest projected position, third base, I guess tied for their weakest with shortstop. So you have story, you have my, I just, I don't know. I think like he fits there.

He seemed to be a good fit there in terms of personality and clubhouse and ballpark, right? Like he was obviously said to be like perfect swing for Fenway and then pretty much. Like it worked out the way that everyone expected it to when he was healthy. He had an offensive rebound did pretty well and also seemed to fit in personality standpoint, you know, just kind of seemed like. a Boston Red Sox player and also with all the the young guys they have

like he seems very eager to embrace that kind of veteran mentor role and was like you know talked up as kind of an extra hitting coach not the teams need any more hitting coaches because as we covered last time they have so many but

so many too many he did get credit for helping you know improve players and give helpful tips and everything so as he moves into that phase of his career, then yeah, I think he'd be a good compliment to the young up-and-comers. So, yeah. And also, like, that AL East race is just shaping up to be quite compelling. And I know that probably people are sort of sick of the AL East being a powerhouse every year and

I know I am. Signing people. And but, like, watching the Red Sox and the Orioles and the Blue Jays and the Yankees, if they ever do anything, just like going toe to toe. all year in the ALEs that has the makings of a great race potentially. So, yeah. Yeah, for all those reasons, I think it makes some sense for Bregman to be back in Boston. I think that he will probably end up either back in Boston or in Arizona.

Okay. Yeah. The answer is likely to be Boston. It seems like such an obvious fit. But also, it seems like such an obvious fit. So why hasn't happened? You know what I mean? Like the fact that it hasn't maybe is.

comment that it won't, but yeah, I think it's likely to be the red sock. He's going to be a red sock. And is that your desire as well? Did you have a different team where you want him to sign? I would be fine. I think that, I think Boston's a good fit for him in terms of my desire to, not as I'm referring him in the ballpark locally. I'm largely over any sort of lingering, sign, stealing, whatever. I think Bregman is the one exception for me. Like, just mugging in the dugout after you hit a home run when you know what pitch is coming. Come on, man.

Like, come on, man. But that feels like a fit for me for Boston. You know, that's how they'd say it. Yeah. If it were at all realistic, I kind of just want him to go back to the scene of the crime and just be an astro again. Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen. Most of the gang back. together again.

Yeah, it's just like, because people still kind of hold a grudge against the Astros, but they're barely, barely any Astros from the sign stealing team still there. So, like, if you're going to boo the Astros, might as well, like, have one of the perpetrators back there that would make things more logical and efficient. But, yeah, I'm not expecting that. Okay. Yeah. From Burvaldez, where would he help?

I mean, everywhere. Yeah. You know, there aren't very many rotations where. Another good starter would not be useful. My answers might like honest answers for this were fourfold. San Francisco, Houston, Chicago, meaning the Cubs, not the White Sox, and Baltimore were my sort of primary answers for this. Okay. Where it's like, what are we doing?

What are we doing Baltimore and Chicago? Come on. Yeah. Come on. My answer for where he would make the biggest impact and also where I would want him to sign, Cleveland. Oh, okay. Again, this is not where I think he will sign. This is just purely on paper.

Where you like him to? Yeah. I think the guardians could really benefit from Faldez's services because their rotation, not so hot. They have the 26th best projected rotation, fancrafts war-wise. So he'd look mighty nice at the top of that rotation compared to what they have. And, you know, groundball guy, good defense. They had the fifth best infield defense, according to Statcast last season. So put him in front of those guys.

Maybe he plays up even more. And, you know, it's almost like off the radar. Like no one even really bothers even saying that the guardians might sign from Rvaldez. But year after year, I mean, you could connect them to anyone. I mean, Challenger, Tucker. Like, that's why it's frustrating to be a Guardian's fan, despite their success relative to a lot of other teams, is that if they would just go get that one big guy, you know,

from outside and just solve a problem that way instead of just trying to patch holes. And, yeah, okay, they could keep churning out pitchers internally and they've done a good job of that. But if they could just go sign a top free agent starter, that would be a great compliment. their internal pitching development. And yeah, he just, he seems like he'd fit there and they could certainly use him in the

AL Central race. And he could be a difference maker there. Just don't depend on your bullpen to be otherworldly. And, you know, just sort of, you know, patch the wounds of the pitch fixing scandal and bring in a fresh face who could get people excited about that pitching staff. So for all those reasons, I'd love to see that. Don't expect to. Yeah, I think that that is maybe right, but I would like it.

I think I would like him to be a cub. I think I want him to be a cub, is my answer to this. Their infield defense wasn't bad last year. And I think they have some good infield defenders, and they need another starter, you know, like go get a dude. My where he will sign, I said giants because, you know, I said that he might be. be the best landing spot for Kyle Tucker, but I would be surprised if they sign him. But I wouldn't be surprised if they signed a Framber level free agent. They've certainly swum in those waters. They have that kind of financial wherewithal. And speaking of good defenses, you know, you got

Matt Chapin and Willie Adomas on the side there to field some grounders induced by Framber. Now they have kind of a history of not really wanting to commit long term to pitchers. And so I don't I don't know how likely it is, but I guess the term that you'd have to commit to Framber may be a little bit shorter just because he's not young. He's 32. So I guess it depends on how long a deal he is willing to accept. He just turned 32 in November. But yeah, still, like, you know, maybe he's not going to be holding out for a seven-year deal or something. So if you could get him for five or, yeah. So I think that's... realistic that could happen swim swim swam yes difficult to conjugate that one i don't know where he's

gonna end up giants is fun like that's a good that's a fun answer he's not gonna be a cub and he probably won't be an orio either but he should be one you know he should be one of those two you know that's where that should go well how about another former cub cody bellinger where would he help the most I'm going to be a Yankee? Don't you think he's just a Yankee? Well, that's a category that we will get to. But don't you think he would help the most there as well? Yeah, he should just be a Yankee.

So in a sense, yes, because the onus is on them. He should be a Met because it would be funny. He would help the Mitz, too. And it would be funny. I would take New York over the field when it comes to potential destinations for Belcher. But the Yankees need him because they need to do something and they need to keep up with their division rivals. They need to placate their fans. He obviously is coming off a strong season there,

you know, lefty bat, lineup balance, all the rest of it. I think there are probably teams that need him more in terms of just roster fit. Yeah. Because I, the Yankees, like, you know, it would be a little bit complicated to find room for Bellinger. I think they could do it and I think they should do it. And it seems to be their priority to do it. So I do have Bellinger going to the Yankees. I think that's the most likely destination. But I think that's the most likely destination. But I think, I think, have the Arizona Diamondbacks as the best fit. You think he comes home? No, but I think that he would be a good trip there.

Oh, you think he should come home? Yes. I mean, it would be super fun. They're not going to do that, but it would be super, I don't think they're going to do that. No, me either. But it would be very fun. Yeah, looking at their projected war totals by position, their three weakest positions are first base, left field, and center field.

those are all positions that Cody Belanger is capable of playing, and D.H., for that matter. He could do that, too. So there's a need there, I guess, is what I'm saying. Like, the Diamondbacks are a potential contender, hopeful contender, and I think they have a more acute need at more positions than the Yankees do, positions that Bellinger plays. Like, the Yankees project better at all of those positions than the Diamondbacks do.

So I think that he might help the Diamondbacks more. and I guess I don't have a strong preference in terms of where he goes or what I think would be most fun. I do kind of like the coming home aspect or, yeah, even like a reunion with the Dodgers would be kind of fun. Not for most people. They don't want to see the Dodgers get better, but to see him go back to where he started. But, you know, I'd be happy to have him sign with the Yankees too. That'd be fine. And I think that's what will happen.

It's just that, you know, the Yankees, it's a little crowded, assuming that people, don't get hurt because they have Trent Grisham who took the qualifying offer and came back. And then you want to find out what you have in Jason Dominguez, presumably, and maybe even Spencer Jones. And then you have Ben Rice. And so, like, you can mix and match and you can give guys days off. And it's great to have Belanger because he's flexible and he can play a number of positions competently. So they would absolutely find places to play him as they did last year. But just saying, I think there are other teams that he might benefit even more.

I just don't think that there is likely to get him as the Yankees. And that's one way in which the Yankees do have the most acute need. It's just like, you're the Yankees. You've got to sign someone already. You can say the same thing of the Mets. Like they need. Yeah. They've signed, they've added relievers, but it's like, come on, what are we doing here?

Yeah, they've been busier than the Yankees. But, and I don't hate what the Mets have done this after. season but it's you know there is a lot of of fan fretting because of all the turnover and all the long tenured players who have left and and there hasn't been the big new addition so yeah absolutely either of them could use him and then he wouldn't have to relocate so all right that takes us to bobbishette where do you think bobbishet would help the most today's rumors focus on the fillies yes i saw that and i do you know that Alec Baum is going to make $10 million next year.

I don't know why I reacted to that service really. I was like, that feels wrong. He's not that good. It's not an anti-labre take. It's an anti-Alec-Bome take, okay? Everybody don't, nobody get it twisted. Don't get it. They might be with you.

They might be willing to move on, reportedly. No, don't get it twisted, but that's not really pertinent to the bobbishet of it all. I think that, well, you know, the Giants could use us. I have the Giants. for Boba Shet, where he would help the most. Here's where, and our listeners might be thinking, don't the Giants have Willie Adomas? And the answer to that is yes,

but I don't think that Boba Shet is a shortstop for very long. So I was thinking about this in terms of like, who needs help at second base? Casey Schmidt. Yeah, sorry, Casey. The Giants have the 28th highest projected war of any team currently. The Guardians are at 29, but of course they have Travis Bazzana on the way. so you wouldn't want to block him long term probably.

No, you're super dumb. And he needs to play second base. He's pretty landlocked there. So I think the Giants have a real need. I mean, I think that my real answer to this question, and this is a need and fit sort of coming together, I think that if I'm the Red Sox, I would like to sign one of Bobichette or Alex Spregman. You know, I think that they have an infield need. They have sort of a pressing infields need. And Trevor Story is just going to be around. So unless you're like really committed to Christian

Campbell long term and think he's ready to go, which you're looking at like Romie Gonzalez and Nick Sogard and David Hamilton and like playing Raphael out of position again. And they've been down that route. Yeah. And that seems like a bad road. Don't go down that road. So, The Red Sox seem like an answer here. You know, the Blue Jays are not, not an answer. They have a need at second base, potentially. Yep. So I think that, you know, and I don't mean to disrespect Dominic Monaghan,

aka Ernie Clement, who we have fenced in for the bulk of the playing time there. But, you know, there's sort of room to maneuver here from their point of view. But Philly, what an interesting. What an interesting fit, you know, those Phillies. What an interesting fit the Philadelphia Phillies, because they famously employ Bryson Stott there. Indeed. Yeah. Yeah, so I have Giant says where he would help the most.

And then for both where I want him to sign and where I think he will sign, I have Blue Jays for both. I just, I kind of think he'll go back there. And I kind of want him to go back there because I like the duo of Bichette and Vlad having been to in that system for so long and come up together and experience success together, enjoy that little bromance and want to keep that going. And it just, it seemed like the Blue Jays just really liked each other a lot. I mean, more than most teams, at least there was more coverage of just what a great clubhouse it was and, oh, they're a bunch of brothers and they all love each other and everything.

So keep the love fest going. They just had a breakthrough season as a team and just bring Bichette back. You know, he wasn't able to be a 100% contributor to that playoff run. It'd be nice to... Whoa, it's hailing. Oh, hailing. Wow. All sorts of weather you're experiencing during this episode.

Yeah, it's just like a real land of contrast up here today. My goodness. It's only a little baby hail, but there's some hail. I see it. Sorry. So I want Bichette to go back there. Yeah. And, you know, we're kind of connecting to the Blue Jays to a lot of players here as the rumor mill has been in general.

And as the Blue Jays have, by signing lots of them. So I don't know where their limit is. I don't think they're going to get Tucker and Bichette. But if they could get Boe and just pencil him in at second base long term, that makes a lot of sense to me. And I think that would be fun. I guess, you know, it's like all else being equal. I often like a homegrown guy to just stay home. Yeah, to return.

You like a return. Especially if it's like a fun team that's easy to root for. So, yeah. I think that if I were a Blue Jays fan, I would want them to pursue Tucker over Boe if I had to pick one, you know, if I were in having to pick one sort of business, but guaranteed to get one. Yeah. I'd rather Kyle Tucker just because I, and I know there's been injury stuff the last couple of years, but I do have some worry about how, how Bo will age. But it did get better, you know, like the body really backed up on it.

And then it seemed like it was better. So maybe I'm being too much of a, I would sign him if he'd agree to regrow the hair. Why did he cut? Oh, yeah. Why did he cut the hair? For sure. But yeah. So he was a bad advice on that one, I think.

Samson situation. Yeah, grow it out. It had been a Samson situation. And also just like, it was such a good flow. Yeah. Bring back the bow flow. I don't know what it looked like up top, you know. So maybe he was getting good advice, actually.

Because sometimes, gentlemen, you got to, you got to have. It could be a cinderguard situation where... Just receding and receding or receding. Yeah. Arching ever backward. Yeah. Yeah. I kind of think that in the short term, though,

they need a second base edition more so than a right field edition. I mean, that's definitely true. Yeah, because we were talking about how it would be kind of complicated if they got Tucker and they'd have to move this guy there and they could do it and it'd be worthwhile because Kyle Tucker, but just purely where's the greater need. And, you know, Ernie Clement is fun. season hero would be a hell of a bench player but as a starting second baseman you know i don't know so beau would uh would look nice there and would really strengthen their bench and their depth so yeah i

i kind of hope that happens and sort of expect it to ultimately yeah okay our last free agent who was looking for a home rangers swarez where would he help he should just go back to philly right well I mean, they have a, their rotation, even with the injury concerns, the attendant to it is, is pretty stout. So I can imagine. They have the greatest need for him. Okay. So in the spirit of the exercise, which is what we're doing here, the giants? I mean, the giants and the Padres are, I think, good answers here and the Cubs and the Orioles.

Right. Yeah. Boring answers for need. You know what I would actually. well, I'm saving this part of the answer because this was my, where do I want him to go? I have an answer that might surprise you. Okay. It might surprise you because I feel like I've been saying the same teams over and over again.

Well, yeah, that'll happen in an exercise like this. I mean, there's a limited sample of teams that are really realistic destinations. And then also we're identifying there are only so many teams that are kind of on the playoff bubble who are in that sweet spot. And then there are only so many teams with needs at certain positions. and this is the second starting pitcher we've talked about. So everything we said about from Valdez applies to Ranger Suarez in a sense also. But, Bo, I just got to push notification.

Bo rumors, heating up. The Phillies were reportedly set to have a video conference. Old news. I already read about that. Thanks to Matt Galbert the Athletic. Also, but like a video conference, that to me suggests that it is not heating up. I do feel. Yeah, I feel like I've heard more about video meetings this offseason for free agent.

Yeah, it's interesting. Get him on a plane. I don't mean that like, Bo get on a plane. I mean like, yeah, I've heard about a bunch of video meetings this offseason. And usually with free agents, it's like the full court press. It's, oh, we're blinded and dined. Yeah, where did our he's at the facility go? Right. Yeah, there's been a bit of that. But call me when he's at the facility. I don't know if it's just that everyone is used to doing everything on Zoom now, even things that you don't have to do on Zoom because they don't require video. It's just kind of the default to have video. conferences, but for a free agent, or whether it's because this free agent class is somewhat weaker. And so maybe you reserve the like full rollout the red carpet for the like tippy top ultra elite free agents and other guys. Yeah, but we can do a video call. But that's Bo. Yeah, that's enough to. I mean, I guess it's fine. Like if, I mean, if you're Boba Chet, you've, you've played every, you've been around for a while. You don't probably need to see like, oh, here's what the clubhouse looks like. Or here's what that ballpark. Yeah. It's a visiting clubhouse and the clubhouse are different.

It's true. Get on a plane. Yeah, sure. Such good food in Philly. Just like go take a meeting so that you can like eat out in that city. As a home body, I sympathize because if I were a free agent, I'd probably be taking video meetings. I, I, I got to tell you, Ben, I, you're talking to a lady who is not going to the Seahawks Divisional round game. I moved those tickets because I was like, get on a plane again.

No? Yeah. Thank you. I'm so tired. The thing is, though, if I were doing a free agent tour, I could just interview from home because I'm going to be working from home. But if you're Boba Shett, if you're a baseball player, you do not have that luxury or that option. I mean if you were like a free agent writer, editor, you could just do it from home. Well, yeah.

I wouldn't have to go see your office if you have one because I probably won't be in it. And you might not have one. But if you're Boba Shet, then you're not going to be working from home for your future employer. so you could maybe benefit from going and seeing the place in person. Yeah. But that is an interesting trend. I wonder whether we'll see that catch on more and more. Maybe it's just being environmentally friendly, you know, just don't want to pollute the atmosphere.

I'll just stay here. Well, yeah, I appreciate that part of it that's like, hey, don't just put them on a plane to put them on a plane. But like, you could fly commercial and fly first class. Sure. And no one's going to recognize you. Bo, you cut your hair. Everyone's mental image of you is still from you having the hair. So you just put on a neutral cap and a... Don't wear a batting helmet. Yeah. Or a baseball cap.

Definitely don't wear a batting helmet. You're going to attract a lot of attention to yourself. Yes. Who are we talking about? Oh, Rangers were. I assigned him to the Orioles because one of these pictures was going to have to be. And I, again, it's kind of boring, but apologies that this is not very very imaginative. You wanted to be an Orioles. I have, this is another across the board Orioles. And it doesn't really have to be Ranger instead of Framber or, you know, some other top pitcher. I mean, those are the top two remaining free agent pitchers. And that's what we're dealing with here.

But could be either or. Yeah. So like, they got to get one of them, you know. So unless they're going to pull off a trade. So I think that he would help there a lot. And frankly, I would want them to get a top starter because I'm sick of talking about how the Orioles need to get a starter. And I'd love to retire that talking point. So just go get a starter so we can stop talking about that forever.

And also because I think a lot of the players in the core of that team, very fun. And so I would like them not to be left high and dry because they did not acquire enough starting pitching. So, yeah, like get Gunner to the playoffs and everything because you've bolstered your starting rotation. So for all those reasons and the just AL East arms race, talent race that I mentioned earlier, which I'm. kind of into, yeah, Orioles. Just, you know, go get one of these guys and, uh, and silence us so that we will not have to keep harping on your need for a starter and your failure to obtain one. I want the brewers to sign Rangers or ours.

Okay. Yeah. That's fun. I just think it would be fun. Is that, uh, are you assuming that they're going to keep Freddie Peralta too? Yeah, sure. Like a Peralta replacement for some reason. They're going to trade Peralta.

No. Just adds. Keep Peralta too. Yeah. I think you say, Chad Patrick, thank you for your service. You're going to be our long man out of the pen. Keep Peralta, Sign Ranger. I don't know why.

I don't know why I want it, but I do. It occurred to me as we were sitting here. The heart wants? What the hurt wants? Can I confess to something? You were like Suarez, and I assumed you meant I Johanio, so I didn't actually think through the pitching side of it. I was just like, you know, which Swares? It surely means.

Where do you want Eohedio to go? I didn't have a good answer. I was like, I don't know where to. I have so much affection for Eohanios Juarez, and it is completely disconnected from my current desire to see him on a team that I remotely root for. I know it's mostly about his hair care. Oh my God, the hair, though. I do want him to drop his hair care routine, you know? I really do.

Ben, it was amazing, you know? You have made that clear. It's so dry here. It is so dry here. And then you go to Seattle, and it's so glippy. Even in the summer, there is just ambient humidity that you don't have my hair while I was home looking insane. And so I just am, I'm in awe. It's got to be, I mean, it has to be just like he struck the genetic jackpot, I think.

Because it's, I don't remember what his hair looked like in Sensi. There was the weird time where he looked like a black and white cookie. Like he had like, he had like Corella DeVille hair for a little while where it was like bleached on one side and not the other. And I was like, hey, honey on this isn't your best look. But you seem like such a delight of a person. I feel bad that we haven't matched anyone with the Reds. We should be fantasy casting some red signings here because, you know, they're a team that could benefit from a top region too.

I mean, they could benefit from a good outfielder. That's for sure. Sure. Yeah. Yeah. So throw them into the. work out. Maybe Noelvie will just be good out there. It could, it could happen. It seems like it can happen. It could happen. So you want Ranger to the Brewers. And where do you think that he will go?

I think that he might just end up being a Philly again candidly on like a shorter term deal. But he could be an orio. He actually is like a pretty good fit for like the Cubs or Orioles if they have like a moment. where they feel like they have to face God and sign a starter, because I think that Ranger might be someone who can be signed for like a shorter-term higher A-V kind of situation. And so that might be appealing. I don't really know anything about Ranger Swarres, like as a person. And so I don't know what his, beyond the monetary parts of a contract, like, what are his

priorities? Like, I don't know if he's a guy who has a strong preference to, be on the East Coast versus the West Coast. If he's like enamored with a mid-sized Midwestern city, I don't know. You know? Well, if he would settle for a shorter-term deal, then I guess that would make him appealing to plenty of teams. I mean, plenty of teams.

The Orioles, they'd be into that too. Plenty of teams, you know. And so, but also we have to think about, like, can he really, is a team going to be interested in him in a short-term capacity? Do you feel like you need to max him out a little bit more? given that he has the qualifying offer attached, right? Like, he's not going to be a guy who's going to do one of these, like, you know, opt out after every year kind of deals because no team's going to do that with him, given the qualifying offer part of it. You know what I mean?

So I just don't know. I don't know. But he's, you know, a part of why I am intrigued by him with the brewers, which, again, he's not going to be a brewer. So I don't know why I'm, like, fixated on this because it's just like, that's not going to have. happen. But there's something about the unknowable quality of Ranger Suarez, right? Like, Ranger Suarez shouldn't be this good, you know? Like, he doesn't throw hard and he doesn't really strike a lot of guys out. He doesn't give up him runs, you know? Maybe you should be a Rocky. No, don't do that. I like watching Ranger Soroswre's pitch, so I would never wish such a thing on him.

But, like, there's something about him going to a team with really bang and pitching dev that I like the idea of because it's just like, could there is there like a, he's already, you don't want to break it because he's already good. But there's like this ineffable sort of thing about him. So it's like, do you put him with another organ? Do they say like, hey, what if we did this? And then he like looks a different way, but still really good. I don't know. I just. Okay.

Well, this has been. He's got great eyebrows. Ranger has great eyebrows. He does. What? I'm allowed to say that. They are good. It's for a very hair-centric discussion. Well, you know, you're signing a free agent.

You're having to think about how you market this guy. Like, how do you introduce your new signing to your fan base and get them excited about what he brings to your club for the year ahead? And sure, a lot of that's going to be about the baseball as well it should be. But they are people, Ben, you know, they're human beings. and they are performing athletic feats in front of other human beings. And some of them are like, Aeohenio, how do you do it with your hair? Yeah.

He should go to the most challenging hair care environment, just to continue to impress you. What do you think Aeohenio's going to end up? Maybe he will just be a pirate. Perhaps I'd like to see the pirates do something, sign someone. I mean, you can throw the pirates into the mix of they should go get Kyle Tucker. I mean, yeah, I mean, they should do that, but they won't. And you know what?

Kyle Tucker's not going to go to Pittsburgh. No, probably not. Also, I repeat at the Pittsburgh Post Gazette. Yeah, that's a bummer. Yeah. Yeah, I feel bad that we didn't throw the pirates into the mix for anyone we wanted to sign with them just because I would like them to be a bit better balanced and to get Paul Schen's to the playoffs as a pirate. And it would be nice. It would be nice.

Oh, my gosh. You willed it. No, not they've signed apparently Christa Vinci. To a minor league contract. Yeah. What? You weren't specific, you know? You are making requests of the baseball gods.

I want them to get a hitter, not Christofensky, but. You got to be right. Well, this was a fun thought experiment. Was it? So I think so. I had fun. Hopefully the listeners did too. And we'll see whether any of this comes true, whether any of our prognosticating was

prescient. and we'll see whether any of this is out of date before I can post the podcast. And yeah, so let us know if we forgot any perfect fits. And then we will watch and wait to see if our free agent dreams come true. And that will do it for today. Thanks as always for listening. You can make our Patreon dreams come true by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast go and help us stay ad-free

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