Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2479: Batters Up!

Episode Date: May 15, 2026

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, please visit our Patreon. Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about whether Ben cursed Shohei Ohtani’s bat by predicting that Ohtani would win the Cy Young award but not the MVP award, whether Bobby Witt Jr. could win his first MVP award this season, the defensive transformation of Luis Arraez, and more, then (33:16) further interrogate what homoerotic celebrations say about baseball culture, discuss the latest ABS challenge mishaps, answer listener emails (54:30) about an ABS double-or-nothing idea, trading challenges for runs, purchasing challenges midgame, an upside of umpire rotation, boosting offense with double-barreled batters, and a baseball equivalent to the Kelce brothers, plus Stat Blasts (1:28:21) about players with the most inning-ending at-bats in a game, swing rates in debut plate appearances, grand-slam merchants, teams with many MVP vote-getters, and picked-off pinch runners. Audio intro: The Gagnés, “Effectively Wild Theme” Audio outro: Dave Armstrong and Mike Murray, “Effectively Wild Theme” Link to preseason predictions episode Link to Ohtani slump story 1 Link to Ohtani slump story 2 Link to Ohtani slump story 3 Link to Ohtani slump story 4 Link to Ohtani slump story 5 Link to FG WAR leaders Link to B-Ref WAR leaders Link to FG post on Arraez Link to MLB.com on Arraez Link to FRV leaders Link to Outsports post 1 Link to Outsports post 2 Link to Outsports post 3 Link to homosociality wiki Link to Ross memoir Link to Valentine/Baty incident Link to Torres challenge denials Link to Heim play Link to Ben on accidental challenges Link to Jake on accidental challenges Link to Gausman quote Link to batter challenge leaders Link to Rumsfeld quote wiki Link to catcher challenge leaders Link to team challenge leaders Link to Clemens on FA $/WAR Link to Ortiz ump injury Link to double-barreled BP article 1 Link to double-barreled BP article 2 Link to HUAL segment Link to ex-athlete pods article 1 Link to ex-athlete pods article 2 Link to Tkachuks pod Link to Harrisburg vs. Erie game Link to 1977 Jays-Yanks game Link to five-inning-ending players Link to 2003 NL MVP voting Link to teams with 8+ MVP vote-getters Link to SABR on WAR and awards Link to Baumann on WAR and awards Link to Sam on downballot MVP votes Link to debut-PA swing rates data Link to innings 1-3 swing rate Link to innings 4+ swing rate Link to grand slams data Link to listener emails database Link to highest PR pickoff rates data Link to Haggerty pickoff game Link to SABR on PR specialists Link to Wright on PR specialists 1 Link to Wright on PR specialists 2 Link to Langs Bell fun fact  Sponsor Us on Patreon  Give a Gift Subscription  Email Us: [e-mail]  Effectively Wild Subreddit  Effectively Wild Wiki  Apple Podcasts Feed   Spotify Feed  YouTube Playlist  Facebook Group  Bluesky Account  Twitter Account  Get Our Merch! var SERVER_DATA = Object.assign(SERVER_DATA || {}); Source

Hello, the starglass, the beefpoise are so shweets, the avi, pedants, and super, a fete, I think that's effectively cool, I think who's effectively, effectively, effectively savage. Effectively savage. Hello and welcome to episode 2479 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from FamGraphs, presented by our Patreon supporters,

I am Ben Lindberg of the Ringer, joined by Meg Rally of Fancrafts. Hello, Meg. Oh, hello. Well, today we bring a bounty of banter, emails, stat blasts, but first, we must discuss a curse. Oh. Because I fear that I have broken Shohay Otani, or at least have broken the bat of Shohayotani, because his arm seems to be just doing dandy. But he's not hitting like his usual self.

And he's not even hitting as much as. as his usual self, which is because he isn't hitting like himself, he's being given more days off to rest to regroup. And I, of course, made the bold preseason prediction that Shohei Otani would win the Say Young Award, but not the MVP Award, which, to be clear, I was not really rooting for, but was just throwing out there as a sort of fun thought experiment. And as I noted, I wasn't really rooting for it because it would require either that he slumped offensively or suffered some sort of injury that prevented him from hitting but did not prevent him from pitching or someone else just had a miraculous historic season and outshone him even though he managed to hit well and be the Siong Award winner. Well, it appears so far that one of those scenarios is sort of coming true, which is that he is having a side. caliber pitching performance.

Yeah. But he is not having a great offensive year. Now, by his standards, obviously, blanket caveat, he has a 122 WRC plus as one of the best pitchers in baseball. That is amazing, improbable, incredible, but obviously far below his established standard. So I have to think that if the season ended today or when the season ends, things stand more or less where they do today, that that might actually come to pass because I think he's probably the leader in the clubhouse for the NL. Sy Young Award right now, as we speak,

after Thursday's games. You have him ahead of Skeens? I think so. Okay. It's obviously it's close and you could make an argument. Sure. Otani is third in Fangraph's war in NL pitching war after Christopher Sanchez and Jacob Miserowski, who like Otani,

pitch very well on Wednesday. And he's basically neck and neck with Paul Skeens and Shoda Imanaga as well. But Otani does have that sparkly sub one ERA, which I think even in this day and age, I think has some sort of impact as a tiebreaker as a narrative setter. And also because of that ERA, he is leading in baseball reference war or RA9 war at Fancrafts, which is baseball reference style runs aloud based war. So I think because of those things and just because of the narrative boost that I think, whether subconsciously or consciously, people would think that it would be kind of cool for Shohei Otani to win his I on award. And he really wants one. And who can deny him? That I think probably he would win one. And people would say,

skeins will have another shot. He's so good. He will win again. He has already won. and really the argument, I guess, for the Ms. or anyone over Otani right now is innings-based that they've pitched. It's going to be a volume. Yeah, probably a volume thing. But if he somehow maintained this just sparkling, sterling ERA, which is unlikely. But if that happened, I think probably that would give him the edge. And in terms of total Winthrop replacement in the National League, he is effectively tied with Matt Olson. trailing if you go out to multiple decimal spots and then L.A. Dela Cruz is right there.

Otani's teammate, Andy Pahas, Otani's other teammate, Max Muncie. I guess there's no runaway clear position player candidate, which would probably make it less likely that Otani would win one and not the other. But Olson would probably be the best bet as of today. But I think even if the war-based argument supports Otani, and it's hard not to unless he's really like a below average hitter. It would be hard for him not to lead the league in war if he leads the league or comes close to leading the league in pitching war. But I think it would be seen as such a step down for him is the thing because of how high he has set the bar for his bat. All right. Well, the first thing I'd like to do is acknowledge the absolute absurdity of entertaining this conversation on May 14th. So we're just, we're just going to acknowledge that and then move on. Because here's, you're just, you're just going to acknowledge that and then move on. because here's the conversation we're having.

I think that voters will want a reason to vote for Otani for the Sy Young. And I think they want a reason not to vote for him for MBP. Yeah, people like novelty. Something new is fun. And, you know, like to put maybe a little bit more like dignify to spin on that desire, there are a lot of really fantastic players. National League, you know? And I think that when you have a guy like Otani and judges the sort of avatar for this in the American League, if they are not having a season that is sort of on

par with prior highs that they themselves have exhibited, I think the voters are going to look and say, you know, Matt Wilson is sure tearing the cover off the ball, man. And wouldn't it be Never takes a day off. Never takes a day off, right? There are compelling narrative and statistical supports to his case at this juncture. And the Braves having such a fantastic season. Right. Sort of out, again, like I have to be careful about saying outperforming expectation because they are outperforming my expectation, but not my website's expectations.

So anyway, but sort of at this point, at least running away with that division. Now, the Braves themselves are familiar with the concept of being low and then getting hot and kind of having a good run, right? So it's not like this is a subtle question by any means, but, you know, there are compelling narratives there. I think on the Cy Young side, and again, we are just so premature in this conversation. I don't feel the need to acknowledge that. He is not alone in possessing, like, compelling narrative, right? I think voters are going to like very much the idea of, you know, say, a young phenom. And that could apply to Mizorowski or skeins, right, depending on how things sort of settle from a war and ERA and peripheral's perspective.

Christopher Sanchez has just been so good for so long. I grant your point that like a good bit of his case, at least at this juncture is sort of a volume-based case. he's thrown, you know, he's thrown 11 more innings than Otani. He's thrown five and a third more than skeins. His ERA, which, by the way, is not bad. He's 2.11 ERA, as we're reporting in a FIP that's, you know, within striking distance of that as well. There will be, I think, voters who are like, shouldn't this guy get his due at some point here?

And he just signed the extension and or the new extension, right? Miseraowski is just like this alien little freak of a guy, little freak of a guy, alien freak of a guy towering towering freak of a guy and he really seems as we have recently discussed like he's putting it together right he's he's doing a special thing and as you noted his last start out was like really great and people love paul skeins right people love watching that guy pitch and and if they ever let him go a full nine sorry for yelling but i am still you know i don't know don't know don't Kelly, but we are fighting. You know, it's a weird thing about us.

And I don't say any of that to suggest that, like, the Otani of it all isn't compelling and it's all right. It's wildly compelling. His ERA is under one. But I do think that there are enough voters in the body. Now, we don't know who the Siyang voters are. And here I will just take, I will take another opportunity to remind everyone how this works. It is not the entirety of the BBWA that votes for any of these awards.

you're 30 voters. It's just, it's not the whole body. So saying, you know, the BVWA feels away about this is, it's sort of hard to know because we don't know what the constitution of that electorate is at this juncture. And we won't know until after the season. So, you know, or at least the public won't know until after the season. So I do think that there are voters within the body who, even when confronted with, you know, really compelling top line stats, are going to knock him for the last. lack of volume, right? Because there is a perception and I think that it's not completely ridiculous because they aren't having him hit on day's key pitches anymore. Like, they're really just not doing that very much. That there's like a babying that's going on or like a protection, which is funny because they won't let Paul Skeen's pitch in the ninth inning. So he's hardly

alone in that. But I do think the volume is going to be part of that conversation. It might end up being one of the more annoying parts of that conversation, I will also grant. And I think that, you know, the extent to which volume should matter is going to depend on the gaps relative to the other guys, which is part of why this is a silly conversation to entertain on May 14th, because it could well be that Otani, as he progresses through the year, starts going a little deeper into games, right? And then these margins collapse. One of these other guys could get hurt. one of these other guys could have a stretch where they're not very good and aren't particularly efficient and they aren't able to go very deep. You know, like, there's a lot that can change

between now and the end of the season. But I do think that, like, other people have compelling narratives. Other pitchers will probably end up pitching more than Otani. That's going to matter both in terms of, like, the perception of him as a guy who can be like a traditional go seven-inning starter and also it will have knock on effects on his war. I mean, we'll remind people the volume matters there. So like it does, there's, I think a lot of ways that this could go. I think anytime you have a guy with a sub one ERA, you got to be like he's the leader in the clubhouse.

But I also just have, I feel compelled again to say, I'm weirded out by how much I'm shilling for Paul Skeen's as if one, he needs advocates and two, you know, this stuff isn't obvious. But Paul Skeens, lest we forget, gave up five runs in an inning on opening day and has a sub two ERA. Didn't even finish that inning. He didn't even finish that inning. He didn't even finish that inning. Five runs. They were all earned.

It's pretty impressive. We've talked about the shaky defense on that day. But like, it was, it was his worst outing as a pro. It is not particularly close. And he has a sub two ERA. You know, and he looks like a threat to throw a perfect game every time. time he's out there or he would if they'd let him go nine. Yes.

It's interesting to contemplate if he hadn't had that disaster start, would he now have an even more microscopic ERA? Would he be challenging Otani's ERA? Or did he somehow bear down even harder because he started the season in that way? And he thought, no, I've got to get back to my usual 1.9 something ERA. And so now he's satisfied. Okay. I pitched at a superhuman level to get back to my normal.

superhuman level, and even more superhuman level. But I think the most likely outcome is that Otani will just start hitting more like he usually has and will put this out of reach probably, whether he ends up winning a Tsai young or not, because obviously the pitching or at least the ERA will regress. But at the same time, I imagine his offense will in a positive direction. And then it will be hard to construct at least a war-based argument for anyone else. but this is it's somewhat disconcerting to me because I can't help but feel responsible because I thought that was such a far-fetched prediction. You should feel responsible. I mean, like I've buried that lead. I didn't even respond to your background anxiety that you have somehow had a hand in this. And here's, you know, just to pile on, Ben, I think you owe an explanation to Dodgers Nation because not only is Otani not hitting well, that entire offense looks pretty more.

bond right now. I know that like, you know, they sort of shook off their, their druthers bit yesterday, but this is not going great. Yeah, it's a very premature to have this conversation. And yet, I did not expect for this even to be in play a quarter of the way through the season. So it's already improbable that he is maybe on pace to do this kind of, because I thought that was one of the wildest predictions that I could come up with. And of course, if Shohei Otani had never existed before this season and this was his debut year, I think everyone would be marveling at how a guy who is challenging for the Sanyang Award is managing to post a 120-something WRC Plus. How could Will Wonders Never Cease?

And so it's only because he has been so much better than that before than we were getting what's wrong with Shohei articles, which is just kind of ridiculous and sort of a tribute to him. But he has now more often than not in his past few turns not hit on the days he's pitched and they are even giving him a day off his DH after his most recent pitching appearance. And this is following a home run that he hit earlier this week, which maybe was a sign that he is finding something. Who knows? But there's been a lot of consternation and talk about what's wrong. And they all say he's not heard or anything. And he says he feels fine too. It appears to be mostly a mechanical issue. And maybe the fact that he is doing both things makes it harder to break out of a

slump if you're kind of in a funk mechanically, he might just have a little less time to work on that than a hitter only would. But it's not as if he hasn't managed to do both and be a more productive hitter than this for extended stretches before. So I think he's perfectly capable of doing it and he will return to doing it at some point. But I did see an article on the Japanese baseball site, full count, full count.john.jp. And this is a Japanese language site. So this is machine translated, and perhaps it's not word for word. And obviously, it's filtered through an interpreter anyway. But they had a story about Otani's explanation for this. And there have been a couple of comments that he's given to reporters. And there have been many articles. But this one particular

site quotes him as saying in the auto translation, I think it's simply a matter of not being skilled enough, which I thought was a very amusing quote because, yeah, that's always been Shohei's issue, really, when you have to just boil it down to one thing. He's just not skilled enough. So skill issue for Shohei, that he's not hitting well enough. That's that. I hope I didn't break you, Shohei, my apologies. I wonder whether this could be the year, by the way, because the overall war lead is held by Bobby Witt Jr. in both leagues, despite a slow offensive start. He's up to 2.9 war. He's half a win ahead of Olson or Shohei or Aaron Judge. And I think maybe there's some sentiment that, hey, Bobby should win one of these someday too.

And it's unfortunate that he's been overshadowed to some extent by Otan Judge. He has just overlapped with these two all-timers who have not only been great, but have been great in more headline-grabbing ways. Yeah. Not just because they're playing for the the Yankees and the Dodgers, but because of the way they're doing it. And Witt is more of an all-around performer and an excellent defender. And so it doesn't quite leap off the page as much. Plus, he's in Kansas City. He's not the most scintillating quote.

But I think there is some sentiment just, hey, he should be recognized. He should be awarded at some point. Not that people don't understand that Bobby Witt Jr. is really good. But maybe the average fan doesn't appreciate how incredible he is. has been because he's been somewhat overshadowed by Otani and Judge as anyone would be. So on the heels of a 10.5 war season and an eight war season, he's now on pace for just another season roughly in those heights. And I wonder whether this could be the year because obviously he doesn't have to contend

with Otani now in the NL. And if Judge even slips a little bit, Judge is off to a fantastic start also. 16 home runs, Jesus Christ. Yeah, I mean, 179 WRC plus. And I'm like, he's doing okay. That is so great. I can't believe. But he's also a victim of his past success and that it's like, well, we're spoiled now by 200 plus WRC plus Aaron Judge.

And if he's merely the best hitter in baseball but not quite Barry Banzing, then maybe it will be an opening. And his babbip is significantly down. And so his batting average is significantly down. that that matters as much these days for player perception. But the numbers just aside from the homers, aren't quite as pretty and eye-popping. And so there's an opening, maybe. Yeah.

But I'm not sure that Witt has done enough to this point because his numbers also just the surface stats are not particularly eye-popping. Because he, again, he's just such a good, well-rounded, all-round guy, and he's an excellent defensive shortstop. but it's a 142 WRC plus. If he had his 169 WRC plus from 2024 with the great defense and a slight downturn for Judge, then I could see it happening. But if Witt is slashing 306, 378, 506, it's good, but it's not so great.

And seven homers so far, the power numbers aren't super impressive and 12 steals. He's not, you know, that's good. but it's maybe not better than he's done before. It's not, you know, like he's going to be 50-fifter or even 30-30 at this rate necessarily. He's done 30-30 twice before. So I don't know if this is quite enough to propel him, even though war has a major impact on awards voting these days. I'd like to see him pick up the numbers a little bit if he really wants to challenge. I do think that for the, you know, the old school voter, the fact that he's,

hitting, you know, above 300 would matter. You speak to the completeness of his game. Like, he has the speed element in a way that I think is appealing to people. As an aside, it is so fun to do leader board sorts at this point in the season because you get to uncover things like the fact that Nassim Nunez has 17 stolen bases, which is shocking because who knew he got on base enough to actually steal 17 bases. The other part of it that I am delighting at, and then we will return to the matter at hand is that Byron Bucston has 15 home runs.

And let's just take a moment to appreciate like, go Byron Buxden right now. Let's just, let's hold that close. Mickey Moni. I guess I'm 175 WRC plus. The world is bananas, Ben. I think that with, you know, hitting in a way that more sort of traditionalist voters might gravitate toward from a batting average perspective is going to play the fact that he, you know, plays an up-the-middle position very well and that he's like a threat on the

base paths. It puts together a case. I think you're right that, you know, Judge has 16 home runs already and he has a 179 WRC plus, but it's down relative to what we've seen from him before. And we'll also just kind of see how it goes, you know, again, a very silly conversation to be entertaining at this point. But I wonder how much, and you tell me if you think this is bonkers, like right now you could make the case, and I think the stats do, Aaron just isn't even the best here on his own team.

Because of Ben Rice when we talked about last time. Yeah. So, I don't know, man. Ben Rice is an interesting looking person. He's also a very young, he's got a very baby-faced face. What's with all these giant men with their little youthful faces? What's that about? Anyway, it's not a problem, but it does feel like we've got a couple of them floating around

and more soon if some of the Mariner's pitching prospects make them. Yeah, well, it balances out the patent tollies of the world, I think. Yeah, that's true. Through some combination of facial structure and facial hair. Did you? Much older than their ears. As an aside, and then again, we can return to it if we want to. but have you had occasion to sort of grapple with the look that Dillen C's is putting forth right now?

Man looks like an extra out of tombstone. He is a, he is there to visit Doc Holiday. What are, what, young, it's not a bad look, but it is quite distinctive. And people should know separate from the Three Musketeers look. These are distinct aesthetics. There might be overlap in some instances. But this, this is a tombstone. man. Right. Like it's a bushy mustache he's working with their. It's an interesting choice because I would say

Dylan Seas is quite a conventionally handsome man. Yeah, he's a handsome guy. And yet he's, he's hiding his light under a bushel basket. Now, maybe that's doing it for some folks. Maybe that's enhancing the attractiveness. But I think he has kind of conventionally attractive facial features. Yeah. And yet you can barely see them because it's just increasingly her suit. So he's got nothing to hide under there, but he's covering it up anyway. But it's a good counterweight to the babyface bends of the world because, my goodness. I've been called a baby face Ben in my day. Have you? Yeah. To the point that you made earlier about Otani, like, Witt, I believe this is still true, leading position players in war over a

baseball reference also, leading them in offensive war over a baseball reference. So it's not like there aren't going to be statistical cases to make for him. And I do think that voters like a little bit of variety. And especially if he is leading in sort of the catch-all metrics, I think the odds are not bad. And, you know, people like that he stayed in KC. They got that extension. Like, I think that there are compelling narrative things there, too. And he had a defensively spectacular.

WBC, I don't know how much that'll be in the memory or mind of voters' comp MVP time, but there's stuff here, you know, we'll see how it goes. What might end up making the difference in all of these cases, both in terms of the Tsayong and the MVP, it's just going to be health more than anything, you know. Yeah. Aaron Judge tweaks a hammy and he's down for four weeks or whatever. If Bobby Witt gets dinged up, you know, breaks a weird birdbone. while he's sliding in trying to steal.

Like, you can just up on the apple cart that way too. Yeah. I am loving the Louisa Rye's defensive Renaissance, by the way. I don't know if we can even call it a Renaissance. He wasn't that great to begin with. But the defensive glow-up, which Michael Rosen wrote about a couple of weeks ago for fan crafts and it's been covered elsewhere. But the fielding run value leaderboard at baseball Savant, it's Pete Crow Armstrong and Bobby Wood Jr.

At the top makes sense. And then tied for third. with defensive standout Nico Horner is, of course, Louisa Rice, as we all expected. Yeah, it's amazing. It's the power of Ron Washington as an infield coach. It's incredible. As a manager, maybe not the best, but he is reputed to be an incredible infield coach and defensive coach.

And time after time, he really does seem to make that true. So evidently, it's incredibly hard, as he said, in Moneyball, to be this good suddenly. And we don't talk enough about defensive overhauls. Maybe there aren't as many, or maybe we don't trust them as much, or maybe people just don't care as much. But it's rarer, I think, to talk about a guy who has just become much better defensively. We talk a whole lot about pitchers who added a new pitch and suddenly they've leveled up

or hitters who change their swing or something. Yeah. And with defense, maybe it's just that historically it hasn't been as value. and so players haven't devoted themselves to remaking themselves on defense in quite as concerted a way. Or maybe it's just harder to see, as defense has always been harder to appraise and assess. And maybe it's just that we don't really track, even though we have some more granular defensive metrics right now, it's hard to pinpoint, okay, here's exactly what Luis is doing differently. He trained a lot.

He did a lot of drills. He worked with Ron Washington, but it's not as if anytime anyone starts throwing a new pitch that shows up instantly on their player page. And if you change your swing, okay, suddenly all your swing metrics are different and your batted ball outcomes and everything. And defense, I mean, Ron Washington, I saw some quote for him where he was basically like, I don't need to see the stats. I have my eyes. It's like, okay, Ron, I mean, I trust Ron Washington's eyes, but I don't know. I don't trust anyone else's, really. And also, that's even coaches who seem to know what they were talking about.

Historically speaking, were not always the best, I think, at assessing defense. Certainly didn't always agree with the metrics and the Sabre defensive index didn't always match what the coaches were saying when they were voting on gold gloves. Anyway, kudos to Louisa Rice for dedicating himself, rededicating himself to this. And I think he said something to the effect of he saw the numbers and how down they were. on him because he thought he was good at defense or had the capacity to be at least. And I think this was sort of the impetus, the fact that the numbers said he actually wasn't very good. And this was probably affecting how valuable he was and how desirable he was to teams and

everything. So he's doing his usual thing at the plate. He's batting 310 and he's not striking out. And he is barely above average WRC plus despite all that. And yet, 1.4 war, that's already better than his full season. wars from the past two years because he's hitting the same, but now he's not one-dimensional anymore. He is very valuable on defense as opposed to a net negative if he's even playing the field

before. So it's pretty impressive, you know, still homerless, but quite valuable nonetheless. It would be very easy to be, I'm not trying to do a wordplay here, defensive about these things, right? We see that posture. Yeah, like Raphael Devers style to mention a Luisur-I's teammate where he seemed to think that he was still good at defense, even though the metrics disagreed. And, you know, I think that we can also acknowledge that of all of the statistical measures that we have access to probably the whitest error bars in that space, right? And the systems don't always agree.

And I think that there's like an avenue for players to get sort of huffy about those things and not be completely. off base, right? But they're much better than they used to be, the defensive metrics. And also, all you had to do was really watch him, right? Like, it wasn't, it wasn't one of those cases where, like, the metrics were telling you one thing, but the eye test was like, oh, no, but he's, like, really good out there. It was like, no, like, this is a guy who shouldn't be playing an up the middle position. Like, that seems obvious. And so I like it when the disconnects between your own sense of something and what the numbers and data are telling you inspires, like, introspection and a desire to understand where the gap is rather than like, well, that's not right,

you know, because the answer at the end of the inquiry might be, oh, there's something missing from the way that the stats are understanding me or whatever, right? Like maybe that's a conclusion that you come to after really digging in. But to say, like, no, I want to be good both for the sake of winning baseball games and also, you know, to continue to earn well over the course of my career. so let me understand where the deficiency is. Like, I don't know. I think that that's kind of admirable.

Yeah. And the sets have improved to the point where they're perceived to be precise enough that it's actionable information, I think. Yes, I think that's right. That's a good way to put it. And yes, there are often disparities among the defensive stats. Defensive run saved agrees that he was below average and now he's above average at second. But they are, to some extent, measuring different things also, which I think is not widely

appreciated because FRV, OAA, whatever, the baseball savant stack cast base system, that is measuring how the player

does taking into account where they were positioned. And so it's given where they started should they have made that play basically.

Whereas at least the regular off the rack DRS is not really doing that. I know that there are different flavors of DRS

and there are some that have statcast inputs and some that don't. But DRS is kind of folding in positioning often there. And so you're kind of getting dinged, I think, if you're not in the right place.

It's hard to know how to apportion blame your credit for that because is it the player? Well, often these days it's the team telling you where to stand on a positioning card. So maybe it's fair not to give the player that much credit for that these days. But yeah, historically speaking, that was factored in because you didn't know where the starting point was. So you couldn't really account for that. And it was just, well, did he get to the ball and make the play or did he not? Whereas Stackcast is now saying, well, should he have, could he have gotten to that ball? But different stats may or may not be including that.

So positioning is almost a team stat now more than it is a player-specific stat. But, yeah, it's kind of confusing to decide how to value that. By the way, when you said that you had to be careful about what you say about the Braves, because your opinion preseason may have differed from. fan graphs or the playoff odds, I think you could safely say that they're exceeding expectations. Sure, yeah. Even the most optimistic, because the preseason playoff odds had them as roughly a 90-win team, and they've got a 698 winning percentage as we speak.

So they're on pace for 113 wins. I think even the rosiest outlook for Atlanta, they have easily surpassed. Yes, but I think if I remember right, and as we have established, I don't think I had them making the playoffs in our preseason staff predictions. I just thought that the pitching injuries, part of it was that I thought the Mets would be a lot better. So I thought that they wouldn't win the division and that the rest of the wild card field was just more compelling. And I thought that they wouldn't get healthy soon enough for them to make up the ground that they were going to lose with all the pitching injuries that they had. And boy, has it not mattered.

You know, it just, they're, Ben, they're doing fine. That'll do it for the free preview of today's Effectively Wild. Thank you for listening. If you'd like to listen on and hear whatever wisdom and wit await, we would love to have you. You can visit patreon.com slash Effectively Wild to access the rest of this episode and plenty of other exclusive content. Weekly subscriber-only episodes, monthly bonus shows, our Discord group, our live streams. Either way, we will be back with another episode soon, which, will appear in full on this feed. Until then, we wish you well, and thank you for your support

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