Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2503: Very Important Prey

Episode Date: July 11, 2026

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, please visit our Patreon. Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley share listener solutions to the mystery of why the 12-straight-hits club is such an undistinguished group, the Home Run Derby field, Bryce Harper’s video message (13:28) to a sports-betting addict and sportsbooks’ practice of preying on whales, the disparity (35:54) in the recent treatment of two pitchers who had no-hitters in progress, and Zack Wheeler’s gripe against All-Star selecting, then (1:02:42) answer a listener email about how much a game one has to have seen to claim to have “watched” it, and Stat Blast (1:23:20) about partial home run robberies, games with matching starter pitch and strike counts, historical team no-hitter conversion rates, and prolific “first” strikeout and home-run recorders. Audio intro: Ian H., “Effectively Wild Theme” Audio outro: Justin Peters, “Effectively Wild Theme” Link to Tolbert record post 1 Link to Tolbert record post 2 Link to Williams 11th hit Link to Pedroia 11th hit Link to HRD field Link to Norway rowing pedant Link to Inquirer article on Harper Link to Post article on Harper Link to lawsuit article Link to Giannis/Kalshi article Link to gambling damage research 1 Link to gambling damage research 2 Link to addiction story 1 Link to addiction story 2 Link to addiction story 3 Link to addiction story 4 Link to addiction story 5 Link to story on Jones 1 Link to story on Jones 2 Link to Jones game log Link to questions about Jones Link to Jones Q&A Link to Cease story Link to BP on Cease Link to top 2026 pitch counts Link to Blum on pulling pitchers Link to Scott/PCA clip Link to Ben on no-hitter strike zones Link to Wheeler quote clip Link to Wheeler’s agent article Link to latest Luzardo start Link to 2025 Phillies ASG complaints Link to “May I meet you?” meme Link to Pascal’s wager wiki Link to “Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?” Link to Glavine game 1 Link to Glavine game 2 Link to Nola question Link to Bois on Stieb Link to Stat Blast data Link to listener emails database Link to Cubs fact 1 Link to Cubs fact 2 Link to MLBTR on Ohtani Link to MLBTR on Wetherholt  Sponsor Us on Patreon  Give a Gift Subscription  Email Us: [e-mail]  Effectively Wild Subreddit  Effectively Wild Wiki  Apple Podcasts Feed   Spotify Feed  YouTube Playlist  Facebook Group  Bluesky Account  Twitter Account  Get Our Merch! var SERVER_DATA = Object.assign(SERVER_DATA || {}); Source

Baseball is a simulation. It's all just one big math equation. You're all about these stats we've compiled because you listen to perfectively wild. Like rally. Come for the ball. Bantters free. Baseball is a simulation.

It's all just one big conversation. Hello and welcome to episode 2503 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of the Ringer, joined by Meg Raleigh of FanGraphs. Hello, Meg. Hello. Well, my curiosity has been satisfied. I think we might have an answer to the riddle, the mystery that has consumed me since we potted a couple days ago about Tyler Tolbert and the undistinguished group of, of five guys who have had 12 consecutive hits, at least in 12 consecutive at bats, or three guys

in 12 consecutive plate appearances. And it's the Pinky Higginses, the Jose Miranda's, the Walt Dropos, the Johnny Clings, the Tyler Tolbert's of the world. They have made history, but they're mostly not players anyone would know otherwise unless they're true scholars at baseball. And I wondered, and we wondered why this was. Because, yes, there's plenty of randomness when it comes to hits and hitting streaks, especially small sample hitting streaks. But wouldn't it stand to reason that there would be at least some stars in that group, some standout hitters?

And you know what? Maybe not. Maybe I underestimated the randomness and how rare stars are. We got a couple responses to this from listeners and Patreon supporters. and I think they might be spot on here. So listener, patron supporter Ricky, says, I have a thought on the 12 consecutive hit streaks. It's exactly what you would hope.

It's just odds. You said it yourself, anyone can do anything for 12 plate appearances. If anyone can do it, and you have a league with thousands of mediocreish players and few stars comparatively, then it makes sense that it would be some random group. It's a random streak. Possibly their lack of prowess may be why they would still be pitched to

after hits 7, 8, 9, etc. Listener, Patriand, Sporter Preston had sort of a similar response. I've got a pretty simple theory on Ben's observation that those who hit in 12 straight at bats are mediocre players. Mediocre players will tend to bat lower in the order. This makes it more likely that they will bat with people on base, which in turn means that they are more likely to be attacked by pitchers, while the better hitters on a team would be more likely to pitch around.

That's a theory, but here's what I actually think, having looked at streaks of 10 or longer, it's random. The two streaks of 11 at bats are by borderline Hall of Fame players, Dustin Padrella and Bernie Williams, who each had 200 hits in the year they did it. Streaks of 10 are a little more random. Corey Dickerson had just a 98 OPS plus in the year of his streak, but no one else was lower than 109. The only really shocking one is Chris Steins, who spread his streak over two seasons with two teams. He combined for a 109 OPS Plus during those two seasons, but was at just 87 for his career. However, Jose Altuve had a 10 at bat streak. Two more in this vein. Here's listener Tom, who says, here's my unremarkable hitters are the ones who have gotten hits in 12

straight plate appearances theory. Most major league hitters have batting averages between 200 and 300. While there's a difference there, it's not huge. Now, if you assume that any player's chance of getting a hit in a single plate appearance is his batting average, you just have to figure out the probability of 12 straight hits. And I guess that would be true with at bats, obviously, with the plate appearances. There's other stuff going on. While Ted Williams will have a higher chance of that than Tyler Tolbert, they're probably both very small chances. Now, here's the important part. I imagine there have been more plate appearances taken by average slash meh players or worse than by stars, certainly, and probably by a lot. So the chances of any particular player doing it are very low

and higher for better hitters, but because worse hitters have taken more of the plate appearances, they have been the ones to get lucky and flip 12 heads in a row, as it were. I haven't done any actual math on this, but might, if I have time later. This is different from other hitting records where you need to be better for longer. I wonder if other similar short records, most walks in a row, most plate appearances or games with a homer have similarly anonymous names. and a little more math was done by listener-patriots supporter Benjamin, who writes, and has sort of a similar hypothesis here.

The list of players with 12 straight hits being fairly unremarkable is actually what you might expect for a Bayesian framework. So we were not doing enough Bayesian thinking here. Essentially, there are just so many more unremarkable players. The probability of a 250 hitter getting 12 straight hits is 0.25 to the 12th, which is 0.0-0-0-9-6. I don't know if I did the right number of o's there, but 7-0-0-9-6. The probability of a 300-hitter getting 12 straight hits is 0.3 to the 12th, which is 0.0-0. That's 7 straight hits.

No, wait, 6 straight 0s, 3-14-4-1. So both are very unlikely, obviously. 0.3 to the 12th, divided by 0.25 to the 12th, equals 9 or so. So a given 300 hitter is nine times more likely to get 12 straight hits than a 250 hitter. But there are just so many more unremarkable players. As a proxy, there have been about 22,000 big leaguers and about 2,200 All-Stars, so roughly 100 times as many unremarkable players. So if there are 100 times as many unremarkable players as All-Stars, and All-Stars are only nine times more likely to get 12 straight hits, we'd expect the Unremarkable Players to do it.

I obviously made a lot of simplifications here, but I think the results make sense. And I think they're onto something here. Now, obviously, the better players, the All-Star-type players, they are going to get a disproportionate number of played appearances per player. They're probably going to have longer careers. but they are still outnumbered significantly by the other part of the bell curve. The guys who are big leaguers, so obviously they're good, but by big league standards, they're not that good. So I think this makes some sense. And, of course, if you're walking a lot, if you're reaching base by other means,

then that'll make it hard for you to have the 12 straight hits and 12 straight at bats, because you might have a walk or something in there messing things up. But this holds true the unremarkable players, even for the 12th. straight plate appearances group, the even more restrictive club. But yeah, maybe this is just it. That it's fairly random. And there are many more players who are just kind of mediocre than guys who are really good. And the odds aren't different enough to overcome that difference.

I think it's very funny that a statistic that is really highlighting these guys being very good, albeit in a short stretch, is actually about making us appreciate the very good players more. They are not the ones on the list just because I think you're right that it's just like a large numbers sort of situation. I find that compelling. Okay. I was hoping there'd be some sort of smoking gun. There'd be like, oh, the secret to why worst players counterintuitively are more likely to have great hitting streaks in small samples or something. But it's really just the not so great players outnumber the great players, I guess.

I guess that's it. But yeah, that's worth keeping in mind, too. I guess when it comes to most consecutive games with a home run or that sort of thing, as the first responder here was mentioning, you know, that's probably a little different just because it is harder to hit a home run that is a lower probability event. And so you do get, you know, single games, like the four home runs in a single game. there are some surprising guys, right? And, you know, most consecutive games with a homer, you've got Ken Griffey Jr.

in there, who is one of the more prolific home run hitters of all time. You've got Don Mattingly, who is an excellent hitter in his heyday. And then you've got Dale Long, which is maybe not quite as much of a household name, more in the Walt Dropo class of hitter. Yeah. But you do have at least one all-timer and one guy who was. Hall of Fame level at his peak. So it's sort of two out of three really remarkable players.

So that makes a bit more sense. But yeah, home runs are just harder to hit in general. And even Dale Long was an All-Star once. So he's part of that remarkable cohort, relatively speaking. Okay. Well, I want to talk more about All-Star selections and Zach Wheeler's snub. And I want to talk about a disparity in how two no-hitter. attempts were handled on Wednesday in the wake of the Uri Perez, a pulled mid-perfecto game that we

talked about from Sunday. But we had an interesting contrast in how Dylan Sees and Jared Jones were handled in some noteworthy starts of theirs midweek. And we'll get to some stat blasting and maybe some emails, lots in store here. However, I guess we should talk about the big news about Bryce Harper, which is. of course, that he will be participating in the home run derby next week. Congrats, Bryce. Congrats, Phillies fans.

That'll be fun for all involved. But, no, that was not the biggest headline about Bryce on Thursday. In fact, the timing of that announcement was almost semi-suspicious. Yeah. Just like, let's change the narrative. Bryce, what can you do? What's a feel-good story that can get people talking about something other than this paid promotion that you did for Finns? And I guess, you know, maybe that's conspiracy-minded of me.

This is, of course, the time when home run Derby participants are generally announced and makes sense for him to do that in Philly. And I'm glad he is doing it because the field, as it stands, as we record here on Friday, a little lacking in star power, I think, for the average mainstream kind of casual fan who might be tuning in. I don't know if you saw the news, though, just before we started recording, that. But Bryce's teammate, Kyle Schwerber, will also be lending his talents to the dirty. So certainly not the only Philly. And I think, you know, of the guys with sort of name brand recognition, he has to rank pretty

highly. I think people just, you know, Schwabom as it were. Yes, definitely. Yes. Oh, wow. Look at that. I just refreshed the home run derby page that I had opened just before we started recording. And now there's another name and headshot on there.

Kyle Schwerper has a wild Kyle Schwerber has appeared. Well, that makes all the sense in the world. I was wondering if Schwerber would do it because Philly's and great home run hitter. And I'm interested in all these players, of course. But I could imagine the average fan saying Jack Haclione, who, you know, Ben Rice is not the big name Yankee Slugger, even though he has been great. Jordan Walker. All these guys are deserving, but not quite as much name value, brand value, cue rating, I suppose. Q rating. I mean, I think that Ben Rice has a high Q rating by virtue of being a Yankee.

Yeah, that helps. You know, the, everyone wants the fried rice battery. I don't know it's freed rice, but fried rice battery, even though he hasn't caught a game this season. So you've been left waiting. And, you know, maybe I'm just too familiar. It strikes me as a good group and a fun one. And I think anyone who isn't enthused at the prospect of Caglione is an old. aware of Jack Wagon.

We're going to have to bring Jack Wagon back, you know? Mm-hmm. He hits balls a long way when he hits them, which he probably will in the home run derby. He would think. Junior Camero, Wilson Contreras. Yeah, look, there will be a lot of bombs. This will be fun.

I hope and suspect that Munutake Morikami may be the final participant added to fill out this field since he has healed just in time. And maybe that'll give the Derby even more of a global audience. that I'm sure Netflix craves. Murakami, of course, very much up my alley. But it's like the biggest stars. Sure. Obviously is hurt and probably wouldn't participate anyway.

And Shohei is not going to be doing this. Some of the bigger names we have seen people maybe more likely to pull out of this event. Yeah. Can't do it. I don't know that he would anyway. Yeah. Okay. The other news, though, about Bryce Harper.

Yeah. reported by hometown paper, the Philadelphia Inquirer on Thursday. The headline is, Fandall sent a personal message from Philly Star Bryce Harper to a customer with a gambling addiction. And this is a man named Terry Thompson, who's involved in a lawsuit against Fandul for its predatory practices. I guess we could say allegedly, but I don't really feel the need to, but when it comes to this specific practice. But this guy lost millions of dollars after wagering many millions of dollars and obviously had a huge problem and was unable to control himself and just placed tons of micro bets and was egged on to do that as happens with the high rollers at these big sports books or really the whales because they can't afford to be high rollers. But the betting companies know that they're where the profits come from. and they'll be damned if they're going to let them delete those apps and put down those phones, which are always at their fingertips.

They get the VIP treatment and they get induced to gamble more. Not that he was about to stop, but this guy's life was coming apart. I mean, his house was foreclosed on. He was taken out multiple mortgages. He was seemingly suicidal by the end of this saga. And one small part of the treatment that he was afforded as a result of the money that he was spending here is that he got a little personalized cameo-style message from Bryce Harper. And Bryce Harper does actual cameos. And it's unclear as we record still exactly what the provenance of this message was and how much Harper knew about it.

There's a Fandul logo on the video, a watermark, but Harper isn't wearing any Fandul gear. But it is clear that he knew it was Fandul related because the actual text of what he said, it was about a 20-second video addressed to this gambler and he says, Hey, hey, Terry, what's up, brother? Hey, man, your host, Brittany from Fandul wanted to make sure your Thanksgiving was extra special. I'm sure she did. So I just wanted to hop on here and wish you and your family, wonderful Thanksgiving, tell the guy's son, I said hello. I appreciate all the support through

the years, and I just hope you have a great day. Enjoy it. I'm sure he did. And we'll see you soon. Bye. So that's that. But a lot of people were wondering, was this just ordered through cameo? And he just didn't even know it was fendal related. Well, clearly he knew there was a fandle connection here. Yeah. I don't know exactly what the terms were and what he was paid and what he knew about the recipient of this message. I'm going to guess that he didn't know all the details of Fandall's VIP program or how problematic that can be and how this can prey on people who can't restrain themselves with gambling.

I kind of doubt that he was aware of that or thinking of that. And for all I know, he was recording 15 different videos and this was just one of them and someone sent him what to say and he did. right? But we don't know exactly because the Phillies and MLB and Bryce Harper's agent, Scott Boris, who is normally quite talkative all no commented the inquirer when they inquired, as they do. So that's what we know. And obviously this doesn't look great for Harper, though I kind of think that making Harper the headline is, yeah, it's the wrong culprit, right? It's the wrong culprit. Right. It's the wrong scapego.

Right. Yeah. It's putting the emphasis on the wrong syllable, as it were. Yeah. And I'm not questioning the journalism of the Enquirer, putting Harper in the headline. It sits a filly paper. You want to get people to read this thing. And maybe it makes this practice more visible. But Harper, not saying he bears no blame or culpability here, but this really, I think, puts the spotlight on the practice that these sports betting companies employ. Because to single out Harper, now as far as we know, as far as the inquirer could determine this isn't a common thing for athletes or at least active athletes to make this kind of Fandall requested VIP quote unquote directed video. And so it is a little iffy to do that. But on the other hand, MLB and the Players Association partner with Fandle. This is one of the official sportsbook partners.

of MLB. And by the way, also partnered with the ringer, which I feel like I should probably disclose. Sure. But, you know, the fact that the league is in bed with the sports books like this, I don't know whether Harper would have thought anything was untoward about doing this. And in the collective bargaining agreement, as the Inquirer noted, I'll quote from this piece, The CBA allows athletes to appear in advertisements or make personal appearances for casinos, racetracks, or sportsbook companies so long as the ball players do not encourage betting on baseball. NFL players are prohibited from marketing or promoting any form of gambling under the league's current CBA.

And the NBA allows its players to own a passive ownership stake in sportsbook and prediction market companies, as we have seen with Janus, etc. But really, I don't know that this was that out of line with. what other players have done. There are other players who were spokespeople and pitch people for these companies. And I guess he wasn't explicitly encouraging betting on baseball. In fact, I don't think this particular, I would go with victim more so than VIP, but problem gambler. I think he was more of a football fan or a big football better. Super Bowl tickets were another one of his perks slash temptation slash gateway drugs.

So I don't know how Harper ended up being the one tapped to do this. But yeah, I don't know that he actually crossed the letter of the law here or did anything that you could hold him accountable for because obviously this whole endeavor is to get people to bet. Right. But he didn't really say anything specifically about betting or encouraging the guy to bed or anything. You basically just said, have a nice Thanksgiving and have a great day. So, yeah, I don't think you can really ring him up on it. And while it is certainly distasteful,

I think it's a symptom more so than, yeah, let's single out Bryce Harper here. I tend to agree with that. My suspicion is that part of the reason that there was a no comment, even though I agree with everything that you just said. But I suspect that the reason they went that route is because there is ongoing litigation. And so they probably just don't want to add grist to the middle of whatever that suit is, which might be true irrespective of his potential individual liability. I think that we, you know, we have seen other reporting around this practice from the sports books, maybe not specifically having literally like the star first basement of your local baseball team,

send someone a cameo style video, but there has been extensive reporting on the VIP treatment and how persistent it can be, even in instances, and I don't know if it's true of this particular guy, but even in instances where the gambler in question has indicated to the sports book, hey, I have a problem and I'm trying to stop, right? And they do not seem to care about that as a moral breaker that they would put on trying to get these people to gamble. Yeah. If you're out, they are doing their utmost to pull you back in. Right. And so, like, if I, if I were a professional athlete, just given the experience that pro athletes are having on the receiving end of gamblers, some of whom I'm sure are problem gamblers,

others of whom might just be problem people, like not the best sorts, I would want to have as much of a remove from it as I possibly could, if only to spare yourself having to engage with that space at all because we know how vile some of the messages that pro athletes get are when bets go sideways for people because someone missed a free throw, someone blew a save, whatever the case may be, their parley got blown up. And so I would want to have a distance from the entire enterprise.

I don't know that this necessarily puts more of a spotlight on Harper for gamblers thinking about his performance. But I would just want to stay away from the whole thing. But I think the takeaway here is the same as it's been the other times we've talked about this, which is there was this, you know, rush into the space after the Supreme Court decision. There are varying sort of regulatory regimes on it state to state. But in general, like, this is just an industry that seems wildly predatory. And, you know, I think you could make, I don't know if one can be sort of negligently predatory. Predatory probably requires a more active pursuit regardless.

But like the simple act of being able to do it from your phone and the ease with which you can kind of get in the hole and not realize it because you're not at a physical sports book, I think is its own problem. But on top of that, yeah, if there are people who are committing large sums of money and losing, right? Because that's the other part of the reporting around sort of the VIP high roller experiences that not universally, but in some instances, once people start winning with regularity, sports books aren't interested in taking their bets anymore. Right? So I think that, you know, when you bring this like constellation of facts together, it's very easy to step up. and say this is this is an industry that is in need of very serious and sort of across the board regulation because the piecemeal nature of it is causing some real problems and I still am unclear on some of the specifics so like in for instance and I know that there are partners partnerships

between some of the tribal casinos in Washington and these larger sports books but like sports betting on your phone through one of the apps, like isn't legal in the state of Washington. But because of the prediction markets, they're effectively taking bets on sports in all of those, in all 50 states now. And the way you know that is because you can't get out of an MLB TV ad break without that guy yelling at you,

literally yelling at you that congratulations, now you can bet in all 50 states. And I love that particular commercial because he leads with, exciting news from the sports betting world. And it's like, and it's not about a trade. And you're like, yeah, it's not about anything related to the actual quality of the product on the field, to the potential fates of the teams that you care the most about. No, we're excited to tell you that we have come up with another way to separate you from

your money. And I know that there are plenty of people who enjoy sports betting. They enjoy betting generally. They enjoy gambling. They're able to do it in a way that isn't common. compromising to them. I don't think that there's like any stain on the moral character of people who like to gamble or play poker or do games of chance. Whatever. Like I think that if you can do that in a way that's responsible, that's your business. I spend money on all kinds of stupid shit. I cannot wait,

Ben. I'm going to buy so much dumb All-Star stuff this week. If I can't find a fanatics plushy in a tricorn hat, I've said it before and I'll say it again. Someone in Philly's PR is failing. Like, I want to be able to buy the fanatic and you should have a little hat. You know, and like that's dumb. I'm a 40-year-old woman. Do I need a fanatic, like, stuffy basically? No, I don't.

But I'm going to buy one if I find one, right? So people spit, thank you. I don't think I'm going to struggle. I really don't think it's going to be that hard. But I don't want anyone to take away that I think that, like, everyone who does this is like a bad person. I think these companies are bad, are populated by irresponsible people at the very least because for every person who is able to put their phone down, not compromise their mortgage, not yell at their spouse, there are plenty of people who are finding themselves in really dire straits

personally, whether it's their interpersonal relationships, their financial fortunes. And these companies are not only, you know, not indifferent to that. they are actively cultivating those most problem gamblers, right? It would be like if we would think really badly of Anheiser Bush if they camped out outside of AA meetings, right? We would find that scummy. We would find that to be sort of a violation of the social contract. And these companies just seem really indifferent to that.

And I think it's destroying a lot of people's lives and leading the rest of us to get yelled at during ad breaks. obviously a less dire consequence of their indifference, but an annoying one, nonetheless. Yeah. Yeah. And I don't know what Harper's personal stance on this stuff is because he's been pretty open about his Mormonism. And Mormonism tends to frown on gambling, as I understand it. But I don't know.

I think it's not like he's named in this suit or anything. Sure. It's really something where I hope that there is regulation of this practice. because, yes, there are plenty of people who can gamble responsibly and enjoyably and in moderation. And that's fine. It's not for me. And yes, we're sort of resentful of being subjected to so much marketing around it. But fine.

But it's this stuff. It's the really just ability to double down and just ring every last cent from these people, more than every last sent. just the horror stories that are out there. And absolutely praying on these people when they're down, it's just terrible. And it's even worse, in a sense, because if you actually can beat the house for any amount of time, then they limit you. And so if you're losing gobs of cash, then they are happy to keep getting you to fork that over to your detriment. but if you actually beat them at their own game and you prove that you're some sort of sharper, you even just get lucky for a while and resemble one, well, then suddenly you find that your bets are

restricted. Then you can't bet much money anymore. So that's the sort of thing that I think that there has to be in hope that there will be some sort of regulation. Yeah. As well as maybe limiting who can promote these things, whether athletes are allowed to and how visible the advertising can be. during what times and which broadcasts, because some other countries that legalize this stuff sooner and felt the effects sooner have taken some steps in that direction.

Because the societal fall out from this, even if it is a small subset of people who end up in this sort of situation, the damage from that to them can be catastrophic and not just to them, but lots of people in their orbits and in their lives. And it's a sizable enough group of people that various studies have shown that this is an actual societal ill, that this is having measurable, harmful effects. And just ethically, morally, just how can you justify when you understand that someone has a problem like that? Right. And you're just their dealer, essentially, and you're just giving them more rope to hang themselves with while you are profiting from their financial. eyes. So it's bad. So I don't really hold Bryce Harper personally responsible for any of that, but the association here, it's just part of the larger umbrella of leagues being in bed with sports books and that relationship being quite cozy. And yes, there are some lines that can't

be crossed without consequence. And I kind of doubt this will be one of them. We will see. There was a report from the New York Post, just a line here that says, and I quote, a source told the post that Harper is not affiliated with Vandul Sportsbook and that the content creation company cameo, which worked with Vandul to have this video made for the underwater betting client. And that's where the sentence ends, even though that is not a grammatically complete or correct sentence. Wait, that's the sentence? That's the sentence. Oh, buddies.

But I think the sentiment there is that a source told the book. post that this was maybe part of cameo and that maybe Fandle ordered this through cameo and he was just reading a script. Obviously, he said the word Fandall. He knew it was for someone at Fandul, but perhaps did not understand the specifics or just like, oh, this is a customer and they get gifts and stuff, not knowing the extent to which these companies will go. Yeah.

I mean, I doubt, look, I'm sure you have the ability to refuse to record particular messages. I'm not super familiar with the precise terms of service for cameo. I doubt this is the most unhinged thing that Bryce Harper's ever had to say in a cameo video before. I mean, not, if you don't know that the person on the receiving end of it is someone who's suffering from a gambling addiction, like it's a pretty benign message. It's have a good Thanksgiving. You know, you throw in the nice line for the guy's kid. I wouldn't be surprised if it struck him as a perfectly fine thing to do. And he didn't necessarily have, I mean, I'm sure he had no way of knowing.

Well, I guess I'm not sure. But I would hazard that he didn't have any way of knowing the precise amount of money this guy was wagering, the contours of his relationship with Fandual. Yeah, I don't know. Like, I think that there was a moment in the early going. when the decision came down from the Supreme Court and the proliferation of sports betting on phones started, where these companies maybe had some amount of plausible deniability. I think that these apps were engineered in a way that is meant to make them sticky, right,

that is meant to keep you on them and keep you betting. but the precise interaction between, you know, an individual person's brain chemistry and that app and the sports of it all, like, sure, maybe they didn't have an understanding of the particulars. And it's probably still an understudied interaction when it comes right down to it. But at this point, like every study we've seen on the effects of sports betting, whether it involves individuals who might be sort of clinically described as addicts or just can't. you know, betters who bet a lot, but perhaps haven't crossed that threshold. It just,

it's devastating. It raises bankruptcy rates. It raises domestic violence rates. As soon as these apps make their way into states and the practice is legalized to do it on your phone, it just, it's socially corrosive. And we know enough now. And they probably know a lot more because I'm sure that one of their great projects is

trying to keep you on these devices and these devices and these. these apps as much as they can, just like every other app designer, but with like a greater social ill associated with it. So yeah, I don't know. I just, I hope that this guy is getting the help that he needs. I hope that, you know, everybody who is sort of grappling with this, whether they're the gambler themselves or like you said, the people sort of in their social orbit, you know, I hope that people have resources available to them, but I suspect that they are, you know, sort of pale in comparison to the scale of the problem. So not good.

It is kind of uncanny how Bryce Harper always ends up becoming the main character, though. Reminds me, what year was this message recorded? Do we know the precise year? Because I was going to say, he looks very raw milky in this particular video, although, you know, he might have just been tired. We'll allow that possibility. I believe late 2024. Okay.

Well, you're maybe in the raw milk. But does he have all of his blood? You know? Like, is it all in there? Yeah. We don't know. Who knows? His decision making may have been compromised because he was, you never know how much blood there is circulating around in that guy.

Although, as we have said, he looks like someone who is drinking just totally normal pasteurized milk at this point. He looks good to go. Yeah. Okay. Well, I guess regrettably, but appropriately, this is where we cut off the episode for non-patrient supporters. But look, folks, that's how we afford not to record these kinds of messages on a sports podcast. Although we will remind everyone that if you become a Patreon supporter, one of the tiers has us benefit. These types of videos, although we will not induce you to gamble, we mostly just end up either congratulating people on graduations or announcing the order of their fantasy drafts.

Yes. That'll do it for the free preview of today's Effectively Wild. Thank you for listening. If you'd like to listen on and hear whatever wisdom and wit await, we would love to have you. You can visit patreon.com slash Effectively Wild to access the rest of this episode and plenty of other exclusive content. Weekly subscriber-only episodes, monthly bonus shows, our Discord group, our live streams. Either way, we will be back with another episode soon, which will appear in full on this feed. Until then, we wish you well and thank you for your support of Effectively Wild.

form it takes.