Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2505: Game Recognize (All-Star) Game

Episode Date: July 15, 2026

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about all aspects of the Home Run Derby spectator experience, both in the ballpark and from afar: the new format, the Netflix broadcast, the Philly fans, Jordan Walker’s win, and more. Then (49:12) they discuss how All-Star selections increasingly reflect same-season performance, Bruce Meyer’s and Rob Manfred’s comments to the MLBPA, negotiations over MLB players’ participation in the 2028 Olympics, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Ceddanne Rafaela’s mutual lovefest, and the ice-cold A’s and red-hot Red Sox. Audio intro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme 2” Audio outro: Moon Hound, “Effectively Wild Theme” Link to FG HRD recap Link to LHB-heavy preview Link to MLB HRD notes Link to LHB park factors Link to RHB park factors Link to “Year of the LHH” post Link to MLB.com on Walker Link to list of youngest HRD winners Link to Walker on inspirational value Link to historical HRD results Link to McGwire Simpsons scene Link to Marchand on Netflix Link to Sam on the Derby’s future Link to HRD X wiki Link to Meg’s Arozarena photo Link to Paine on All-Star selections Link to past EW discussion on selections Link to Manfred competitive balance quote Link to Meyer on MLB.TV ads Link to Passan on the Olympics Link to Drellich on the Olympics Link to The West Wing quote Link to Rafaela/PCA article Link to FG WAR leaderboard Link to playoff odds changes Link to A’s firing article Link to team road FIP Link to team home FIP Link to team batting WAR Link to Sheehan on the Sox Link to conn wiki  Sponsor Us on Patreon  Give a Gift Subscription  Email Us: [e-mail]  Effectively Wild Subreddit  Effectively Wild Wiki  Apple Podcasts Feed   Spotify Feed  YouTube Playlist  Facebook Group  Bluesky Account  Twitter Account  Get Our Merch! var SERVER_DATA = Object.assign(SERVER_DATA || {}); Source

Hello and welcome to episode 2505. Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of the Ringer, joined by Meg Rally of Fangraphs from Philly. Hello, Meg. Hello. Good Derby, I think, at least, from afar. We spectated in different ways, different capacities. We might have different opinions.

So I was watching From Afar. I can provide my perspective on the Netflix. of it all, and you were in the park on the scene. I was. Yeah, I am fascinated by your experience of it watching on TV because, you know, one tries to be engaged and present when one is, I think, lucky enough is a good way to describe it, to be at these things in person. It's a part of my job that I certainly don't take for granted. But I had an eye trained on blue sky. at points during the derby. And I felt as if, at least in my limited little slice, which certainly plays a role, you know, what slice I saw, that there was a real divide between the in-person experience of the derby, which seemed energetic and largely.

Well, I was going to say positive. I don't know if that quite does justice to the Philly crowd and their booing proclivities. enthusiastic, lively. It seemed like people were enjoying themselves. That doesn't run at cross purposes with saying that Philly fans were booing, if anything. It just suggests that they are being themselves. Then there were the folks online who seemed to have some notes, both about the format of the event and the broadcast itself.

So what were your takeaways? Yeah, I saw some differing opinions online too. I didn't pay that close attention. I was trying to come to my own conclusions. But I think people had the knives out for Netflix, no pun intended, just because it's not a normal baseball broadcaster. We saw it with the opening night broadcast that Netflix was not experienced, clearly not polished. Maybe didn't know how to do a baseball broadcast. And so with the format change, with the,

streamer that was hosting this. I think a lot of people were prepared for it to be bad. And it got off to a rough start. So for one thing, it got off to a late start. And I know that the festivities started at seven officially, I guess with a preview show or something. I did not tune in for that. You're not going to get me to tune in for a home run derby pregame show. So that started at seven Eastern. I tuned in at eight Eastern, which was when I thought it was actually starting, it did not start then. It started about half an hour after that. So they squeezed in all the introductions and everything there. And that was pretty protracted. And you had Michael Buffer for whatever reason, and you had a boxing ring set up, and you had the stars of the upcoming Netflix

show The Hawk, which is basically like a live golf kind of comedy. And that was all bad. That was all annoying. That was all extremely Netflix, which is self-promotional and trying to be really big tent appeal to anyone and everyone as opposed to baseball diehards. And that part was not great because they had Luke Wilson and Will Ferrell and Jimmy Tatro set up on the sidelines, basically just doing commentary as the guys were coming out. And it was painfully unfunny and just like super scripted and weird and hard to hear too because Buffer was announcing everyone at the same time that they were trying to do comedic banter. And so all of that rough start, I think. Yeah. But once it actually got going, I thought it was fine and I thought the format was good. I thought

I still had some quibbles about the broadcast, which is namely that they did just miss some swings sometimes, which was quite annoying. It's like you have one job. It's a home run derby. Show me the home runs. And they kept doing all these sort of cinematic pans and let's look at the crowd and let's

focus on the pitcher for some reason to the exclusion of actually missing the pitches sometimes. Like when they would introduce the pitcher, they would just have an image of that guy there and the Chiron and then like you would miss a pitch or two. Or they would show the flight of the ball.

They didn't do split screen for better or worse. So sometimes they would show the end of the flight of the ball. And then there would be kind of a quick pitch and you'd maybe miss the start of the next swing, that sort of thing. So that would be my main note for next time is that we want to see the dingers and we want to see the swings. So do whatever you can to actually show us every single swing. That doesn't seem like too much to ask. Beyond that, though, I thought it was kind of refreshingly uncluddered. and I guess on past broadcasts on ESPN, there were maybe multiple broadcasts, right?

There was sort of the statcast version, but there was a lot of stat cast stuff even on the main version, and there was the ticker at the bottom, and there was lots of split screen, and you were seeing studio people, and you were seeing the swings, and you were seeing the ball, and there were so many stats and everything that I just felt like my view was extremely constrained. And here it was pretty stripped down. It was just kind of one big picture. And I saw some people complaining about the fact that, say, they weren't showing exit velo and launch angle.

It was pretty much just distance. And I got to say, that's all I need. That's all I want, in fact, in a home run derby. I don't need to see the exit speed and launch angle for every single ball. Like, they're home runs. They were hit hard, you know? I don't need to know, okay, if there's one that was particularly crushed, I guess that would be nice to know. But I don't need to see the exit feel and angle for every single one.

I just want to see where the ball went. And if it was a homer, I can assume that it had kind of a typical home run caliber exit speed and launch angle. And distance, distance is useful. And they were showing distance most of the time. So it was kind of uncuttered. And I actually appreciated that. I really didn't need any more stats than I saw there. Yeah, I think that there's likely no perfect format, right?

You're going to make a trade-off somewhere in the whole situation. But I greatly prefer the swings-to-time model. Yeah, me too. Because you are able to, and this is true, I think, both in the ballpark and on TV, you're just able to have a much greater appreciation for, each individual home run when you have a certain number of swings because they're

spaced out in a way that allows them to land and really be sort of taken in as opposed to the timing format where it's just like dinger after dinger after dinger after dinger and that has something to recommend it right? Because you get these like really

dramatic little runs that guys would go on. But I also think that you saw guys tired themselves out often, right? It would have this sort of deleterious knock-on effect in later rounds because you know, like I think of some of Julio Rodriguez's

home render Bue performances where you're like, this guy's just spent because he had such a banana's first round. You know, I think that we've seen that sort of over the year. So having to take a beat to really like appreciate what all was

going on was nice. I think having a more sort of spare presence. to the scoreboard, which like we saw that in in ballpark that, yeah, there was just a lot less information. And I think having the option when you're watching from home to pop over to the more stat-cast-based broadcasts, like that, I think there's a place for that. But I agree with you. I don't think it's an event that really requires much in the way of overcomplication or even that much in the way of measurement. Because the base appeal. of the home run derby is,

ding or go far, you know, and I think having some quantification to exactly how far is cool. But you don't really need a lot of guidance in terms of was it hit hard or not. All those balls are getting destroyed. You know,

like this is a field of guys who can wallop the baseball. So I quite enjoyed it. You know, the location of the auxiliary press box for this game. And I just, I have to compliment. I know no one cares about how much the media likes the Ox Box. I appreciate that this is a niche interest and can seem kind of navel-gazy. But my tip of my tricorn hat to the Phillies for the location of their Ox Box is they put it sort of out in the left field stance.

And it's always nice when it's like taking advantage of actual stadium seating. So you have a real seat, got a good, a good solid, a good solid plank for sitting on. The Wi-Fi was a little inconsistent, but there's not much doing on that. Like that happens every year. Monitor at convenient distances. Good on you, Phillies. Now, I did whack my knee getting into my seat with the force of a Jordan Walker home run, but that was user error. I can't blame the fanatic for that.

That's on Meg, right? But where we were sitting meant that for this derby, which had a lot of the action getting peppered out to the left field stands, boy, what a view we had and really got to appreciate the value of that sort of line drive home run swing. And there were some big, beautiful arching home runs. There was certainly diversity of home run in terms of the arc and distance. but I really got to enjoy that, although I had my intrusive thought further reinforced, which is I just need people to be less leany over the edges on that first row. Be more careful, please, because I can't help but visualize it. So, yeah, I quite liked it.

I liked being able to appreciate where each one was falling. It adds attention, and the clock can add attention of its own, I suppose, but there's just something when the guy's down to his last swing and not to jump ahead to the final round here, but like watching the run that Jordan Walker went on to win it, it was thrilling. Like it was just exhilarating because it looked like for a second, it was like, oh, you know, Chorber's got this one in the bag. And no, he didn't. No.

And then we could see, we could see down behind, I think it's the visiting dug out. It was where his family was, and we could see the broadcast crew trying to get his family down on the field, which they were able to do. And then we got to hear from his dad. And it's just, you know, I'm a sucker for parents who are so obviously proud of their kids and just express it in such glowing and loving terms. And that's always so nice. And it means something to people. And anyway, I thought it was great. I am given to understand that there were some flaws in the Netflix broadcast, both in terms of the production and also the particulars of some of the calls.

I do think it is unsurprising that that would be true. We have talked about the ways in which the opening night broadcast was, you know, you didn't always feel like you were in steady hands. These were not people who are used to broadcasting baseball. I think it's a hard thing to thread the needle on. And like, I don't know, not everybody wants Chris Berman, you know? Right. That's the thing. I saw a lot of people pining for Chris Berman.

And this seems like nostalgia speaking to me. This seems like selective memory. Because when we had Berman, a lot of people could not wait to be free of Berman. At least latter years, Berman. It's just the schick wore thin. So, okay, maybe you might want to bring back Berman after you've been deprived of Berman for years. but when we had them every year, really, the charm wore off because this is a long event. And so I saw some people complaining about how excited Vasgurgeon or Pence and Rizzo sounded.

I think they were fine. I think they got the volume level up when it was required. You don't want to be at 100 volume level every single call because there are a lot of home runs, you know? And so it's tough to stay at that level. level for three hours, you got to pace yourself a little bit. So I thought the commentary was fine. I appreciate Pence. I'm very much in the target market for numbers and stats. And even so, it was sort of overload for me in past derbies. And now we know, okay, the top distance was a junior Camerro home run that went 491, and that was also the hardest hit,

116 miles per hour. Okay, I know that now. It wouldn't have enhanced things much for me to see that on every single swing and batted ball. I think maybe they could have shown a leaderboard a little more often because if you were tuning in midstream, you wouldn't really have known, okay, what are we shooting for here? What's the number to beat? Who's the leader in the clubhouse? And they were saying that stuff on the broadcast, but if you were muting the broadcast or you weren't paying close attention, it might have helped to know what's the target that someone is aiming for. But I was watching the whole thing, so I had some sense of that. It wasn't really lost on me.

So, yeah, I think the format was a win. And I think this kind of found the happy medium between not enough homers and too many homers because we've really seen a great range. I'm not suggesting we go back to the late 80s, early 90s, you know, the 1990 derby at Wrigley where the American Leagueers hit one home run total. It was Mark McGuire. He didn't even do the Simpsons. Do you want to see me sock a few dingers? He didn't even do that. He hit one dinger.

And then it was like four to one. NL versus AL. No one wants that. It's a home run derby. We want to see some home runs, obviously. But it maybe got a little out of hand in recent years. And so I think this was a nice middle ground because like last year in round one, the home run totals were 17, 21, 21, 20, 17, 16, 15, and three.

Oof. Jazz Chisholm. Yankees not showing, showing out in these derby performances. Ben Rice also bringing up the rear this year. But this year, 13, 10, 13, 12, 9, 8, 8, 7. I kind of like that. Yeah. Because everything in moderation, even if it's a derby, I think, because it becomes kind of inherently repetitive and monotonous.

It's just three hours is a lot, you know? And in fact, I wouldn't be averse to shortening this whole event just because a certain point, I'm like two hours in. I'm like, ooh. And obviously the finals ratchets up the stakes and everything. And we had this great dramatic ending, which was great. But really, at a certain point, okay, how many more bombs can I see here? The guys are getting physically tired. I'm psychologically feeling some fatigue.

So I thought this was a pretty good middle ground because home runs are fun in part because of their rarity, at least in real games. Okay, it's still something of a rare event and a meaningful, consequential event. And so if everyone's hitting 20 per rounds, then that's not so consequential and it's not so meaningful and it just becomes kind of repetitive. So I thought this was enough where you were counting the swings And, you know, would I have fewer swings maybe in the first round? I like to see everyone get their exposure to the audience and get a chance to get into the groove is the other thing Because clearly there's some nerves going on and you kind of have to get used to the vibe and everything. And so if you burn a few swings early, then I like to see someone kind of get hot, catch fire mid-round.

And so I could see an argument for keeping things where they are, but I wouldn't mind an even quicker event because three hours is a lot to ask. Yeah. And I wonder, you know, I understand that you need to have a sizable enough field for it to really feel like a competition. Yeah. But I do wonder if they go from eight to six, like would there be away for them to, I don't know. Yeah. The danger of the swing versus timed format is that you just have a lot more potential variability. And you had a bunch of takers.

Yeah. A bunch of takers in this field. And we should talk about the booing. Because I have a speaking of takes. I have a take about this. But the Philly crowd booed Leslie. Yes. The Philly crowd booed all manner of things.

They did not boo all things with. equal enthusiasm. And I think the thing, well, the thing they booed the most was Ben Rice, I guess by virtue of him being a Yankee. That was funny. The thing they booed, the second most,

was any Mets fan who was shown on the Jumbotron. So there was that. And then I think tied for third was any take offered by a non-Filly's player.

at any juncture, right? Because, you know, Contreras led off the event. He was the first hitter. And when he got down to his final swing, in particular, he was taking pitches because he wasn't, Ben, he wasn't seeing the ball he wanted, right? And the booze, they were profound. Yes.

So there was that. And then, of course, there was the booing of failed outfield plays by... I said kids when I initially posted about this and some of them were smaller children, but there were some grown-ass adults out in that outfield last night. There were some college-age-looking.

I mean, no one looked... Well, no one looked like they were as old as I am. I wonder if they were concerned about the required physicality of the exercise. But I remember the people in the outfield shagging to, that's going to sound weird in connection with the rest of this sentence, to be children, to be shagging the fly balls. That's all they're shagging. To be small children in most derbies. I feel like they had skewed younger in prior years now.

I cannot say that I have tried to discern the age of every single person who has ever participated in that exercise. So it could be that I'm underappreciating the past presence of older relative to small folks in the outfield. But I just remember them. Part of it is that they've seemed so tiny. You know, they've seemed small of stature in a way that suggests that they are little kids. And sometimes they get hurt out there, you know, like they get hit. And that's sad, but also a tradition. Yes.

A proud one? No, we won't say that, but a tradition nonetheless. And so whenever there was like a misplay or even a play that the crowd decided they thought that person should make but didn't, there were definitely booze to be had. There were some slick plays. There were some fine catches both by those shaggers and also by the fans. But I do think it was important that the crowd was into it in that way. It was kind of like pre-step-offs, throws-over restrictions. when someone would just keep throwing over to first when a potential base dealer was on there,

and eventually you would just get booed if you were a visiting pitcher. And that maybe helped move things along. There weren't usually more than, say, three or four takes in a row, so it wasn't super egregious. And some of these guys were kind of playing to the fans, hamming it up a little, like Contreras was embracing his heel role, which made it more fun. You know, no one seemed to mind. Everyone seemed to take that in stride and appreciate that, if anything. And that added something both in the ballpark and on the broadcast because people were actually into it.

And they had a real rooting interest with Harper and Schwabber and all the non-fillies. But yeah, I think some of the booing may be discouraged even more rampant taking because that is the potential downside of this format that you just get slow rounds and guys waiting for the perfect pitch. And that didn't happen so much. That didn't really bother me a whole lot here. And another nice thing about this format is that it places a lot less importance on the pitcher, I think, because that's always something that frustrates me about home run derbies is that it's not just a product of the hitter's performance. It's largely the pitcher's performance, especially when there's a timer and the clock's counting down. And I would always get upset because some pitchers were kind of lollygagging and they were just taking.

their time. It's like, this is about speed. The more swings, the more chances you have to hit homers. And these guys were sometimes pitching at a deliberate pace or they didn't have great command and they weren't putting it where the hitter wanted it. And that was always annoying. And then I always felt bad for them sometimes because they were screwing up the hitters game, especially if it was like their dad or something.

And maybe they were feeling the pressure. So this places a lot less importance on the pitcher because it's not so much about the pace of the deliveries. And if the pitcher can't quite hit his spots, well, you can wait for... So that's another virtue of this. And I didn't think anyone really abused the privilege. It wasn't like early in baseball history

before there was a strike zone. The reason why there's a strike zone is the guys were just waiting forever for the perfect pitch. And it became very boring to spectators. And that could potentially happen with this. But I think the fact that it's just an exhibition and it's kind of just for fun.

Obviously, there's money at stake. but it's largely for fun and you have fans raining booze down on you. And yeah, I think they were louder. I seem to recall maybe some booing, at least, of screw-ups in the outfield by fans attempting to shack balls. But I don't remember it being quite this loud or the booze for non-home players being quite this loud. And that was very odd brand for Philly, obviously. And that helped sort of situate it in a particular park, in a particular place. and also added to the stakes and the spectator entertainment value.

So I think it really worked out for Netflix in the end just because you end up with this dramatic Schwaber versus Walker battle. And it comes down to that final swing or swings because largely the final swing gimmick was kind of a dud for most of the night. And it seemed like that was maybe because the ball was a different color for that last swing. which in principle sounds kind of clever to differentiate it, but it didn't really show up that well on the broadcast. It was kind of hard to notice. But for the hitters, it actually did seem to disrupt them. They would all take a pitch or two to get acclimated to the new color.

And then it seemed like maybe they were kind of icing themselves by doing that or maybe putting extra pressure on themselves. So switching the ball color when those guys were in a groove seemed to be counterproductive until the very end when that gimmick paid off. Not necessarily the fact that the ball was a different color,

but just the fact that you're down to your last swing and you can keep it going. And Walker hit homers on his last, what, six swings to get the walk off. And he needed to, he was what, three behind Schwabber

when he was down to his last swing and then he hit four in a row. And you could kind of see Schwerber getting nervous because Walker just seemed to have found the range there and so that added some real drama and that sort of sold

that aspect of the format at the very end. That was the best possible ending and most dramatic demonstration of the potential of the last swing keeps going. So it's sort of sudden death at that point and that really raised the stake. So that was fun.

I thought that the booing, I know that there were people who thought that it didn't play. And look, I'm saying this in a mostly complimentary way and then the little bit of it that isn't complimentary is respectful fear. Okay?

Everybody? Let's be on the same page about this. I think the booing was great. I thought it situated this derby in a particular place in a way that you know, it is unusual

for a derby. Now, I don't think that derby's feeling somewhat anonymous in terms of the locale is really all that much of a detriment to the to the event like I don't sit here and wish that every derby wasn't core so that we could say like oh well the you know the the rocky outcropping in center fields although you know they had vegetation in center at citizens bank too but I thought that it made it so obviously and specifically Philly. Yeah. It was received in the perfect way by the non-Filly players.

Yeah. When Contreras came out when he was being introduced, he was like putting his hand up to his ear. He was kind of egging them on. Yeah. Yes. Like, let's hear it. Let's go.

You know, I thought that Ben Rice was like a, was a good sport about it because boy, were people really committed to booing him? I do think that people, the non-Filly players were briefly mystified, but they largely, like, you know, they egged on the crowd in the right spots. They didn't seem to get huffy or defensive about it. And so it was this perfect interplay between, you know, feisty, uh, Philly crowd and visiting player. It wasn't universally negative vibe to be had there, right? Like, a lot of these guys, were very impressive. Like Contreras looked great. Caminero looked great.

Like people were thrilled by their big home runs. And I think in a way that feels very filly-like, I think the fact that Michael Bauman had this observation, and I tend to agree with him that like the way that Contreras was willing to sort of play the heel a little bit there, the next time he plays in Citizens Bank, I bet he will get kind of a friendly reception. because he he understood the brief, right? I thought that it, like, it made it very distinctly Philly.

When Walker won, you know, I'm sure that if Schwerber had managed to stick it out, it would have been thrilling for the home crowd, but it wasn't like he won and then he got booed off the field or anything like that. Like, I thought that everybody kind of understood their role. Philly fans knew that there was perhaps an expectation that they would be a little bit sassy. Yeah. And I think that, you know, when you look at some of the quotes that all of those guys gave after the fact, like, they, they properly situated the response where I think it lies, which is like Philly fans are fanatical about their guys. And that is the place from which they are often booing. Now, if there had been a met in the field, it would have been a little different. So, you know, there before the grace of God goes Pito Onzo. But, but, but, and it was funny when they were. were doing the montage of past winners, and Alonzo came up as a met. Mood, bud, bud, bud, bud, bud, yeah.

If Soto had been there or something, then maybe it would have been a bit different. But yeah, that's good because you could read the room better than I could because you were in it. And I thought it was sort of good natured. It was playing, it was a bit, basically. And they really did want their guys to win. But it felt good-spirited, not mean-spirited. It wasn't J.D. Drew. No one was getting pelted with batteries or anything.

It was fine. It was, you know, I guess you could say it wasn't the best sportspersonship or something, but I thought it was perfectly fine and fun. I thought it was fine. I thought that it was fine. And again, it, like, it helped to situate it. We want these events to be a reflection of the city in which they take place. And, like, this is part of the tradition in Philly, right?

And, you know, and it's a tradition that has gone through rounds of myth-making, you know, the degree to which they are quite so negative is perhaps overstated. And some of the, you know, the battery stuff has kind of gone through revisions. Exactly. And so, you know, I don't mean to say that like, and I don't mean to say that Philly fans are all one way. And they will dish it out to their own guys. So I guess there's some honor among booers, as it were. But I do think that it is like part of the vibe and the tradition here. I think part of two, why I appreciated it is that, you know, a lot of the sort of pomp and circumstance and brigalia around this all-star game is being in a funny way sort of abstracted away from the city of Philadelphia.

Right. There's all this America 250 stuff. You sort of feel like the All-Star game is happening. on the 4th of July. And some of that is obviously very deeply rooted in Philadelphia. So I don't mean to say that that is entirely removed from the spirit of the city. But like the way that that stuff is being positioned is much more star spangled. And so I think it's good to have a reminder that, you know, some of these, some of these Philly fans are, you know, this is the John, as it were. Yeah. Anyway, I am glad that everyone did decently enough that I didn't have to.

to feel bad for them because I do kind of pity when players just get skunked or can barely get one over the fence. Yeah. Although Ben Rice. What's going on? What's going on? And I will say, I will say, the Phillies who participated,

I mean, it wasn't everybody's best day. Yeah, it wasn't perfect. And I was briefly worried that we would end up with, I think it was good for the energy of the event, both in the ballpark and I imagine how it played on TV. Like, I wouldn't have wanted there to have been an assured

place for a Philly in the final. Like, that would have been nonsense. It needs to be a real competition. But I think it was good to have Schwabber in the in the finals, right? Because it does sort of amp up the home crowd. And yeah, there was, you know,

there was some real variability there. Yeah. I was a match. Yeah. someone who just doesn't quite have the right stroke. And it's tough because sometimes they're like ripping line drives into the gap or something. Right. That's what you usually want to do.

I know. That's a good hit. But here it's an abject failure. And I'm just, I always imagine them being like, this never happens to me. I swear. Right. You know. But.

Yeah, it is funny. I'm revealing myself perhaps to have at least a little bit of the guy in the famous tweet, like, saying, shut the fuck up. I'm calculating wind probability added. Where I was like, wow, you know, some good like double strokes here.

Like, gosh, I should count for something. You should get like a quarter of a home run. I'm like, shut up, baby. That's not the purpose of this event at all. There's some performance anxiety. You're just the sole focus and you have to hit that ball over the fence. It's a lot of pressure.

And I like that Walker won. He was certainly an underdog, both in terms of his career accomplishments entering this competition. As we said, it was not the most star-studded field ever. And you did have a few guys who were first-time participants or guys who were fairly early in their career or really in their first season as a home run derby caliber hitter.

And someone like Jack Cady-Oen or Jordan Walker, who until this year was open question whether he would ever get the ball over the fence enough to be a productive player. and boy, the raw power that he showed just that smooth, sweet stroke, that was great. So easy. And he was an underdog because this was a very lefty, heavy event. Five of the eight guys were lefties, which was the most left-handers in a home run derby since 2013 when Bryce Harper was a participant.

He's been around that long. And actually in the All-Star game, I think 11 of the starters are left-handed hitters, which is the most in a single All-Star our game. And Leo Morganstern declared this the year of the left-handed hitter at Fancrafts last month, which we discussed on the pod. So this is a very lefty heavy year. You would not have expected Jordan Walker to be the one to break through. And it's a park that favors left-handed hitters and sluggers, too. Just in terms of the park factor, I think a lot of people were expecting that this would be a lefty because of Citizens Bank. And also, Kauswerber is just on this earth to hit homers.

So like, you know, I just sort of thought Schwerber winning was inevitable at a certain point because he's just a machine when it comes to that. And so for Walker to make that comeback was great. And I was thinking maybe it would have been good for him to go first in the final because there was the whole Rust versus Rest conversation and long layoffs. And then once Schwerber had a pretty good round and the whole park was pulling for him, the pressure is really on. Walker at that point. And he seemed to really thrive on it. And he appeared to be completely laid back.

I mean, he was pretty pumped, but he didn't appear to be unnerved by the moment whatsoever. His whole family was there. He had the Griffey Jr. style throwback backward cap going on. He talked after he won about how he hoped it would inspire black kids who were watching and, you know, maybe get them back into baseball. Plus, obviously, he had significant incentive much more so than Schwerber monetarily too, because he made a million bucks for winning this thing. Yeah. That is considerably more than his salary for this season. So he had a lot at stake, both financially and in terms of prestige and bragging rights.

And he appeared to be pretty pleased that he won this thing. I think that you're right that we talked about the sort of relative cue rating of the field compared to prior years. And I, you know, you want, I think it's. it's nice when there's a mix of guys, right? When there are guys who both have a long history of participation in the derby so that you have some sort of through lines to prior years and competitions. And I think having some big, big stars is important to the exercise. But as we have seen, like, this really can be sort of a national coming out for guys where players who are stars to us, guys who we know and who their local fan base might be really familiar with, but who might have

less of a national profile. It can really alter the trajectory of their place in the game. There is something that is just like very satisfying from a narrative perspective for this guy who, you know, was viewed as something of a failed prospect, had not really been able to write the ship, has this terrific first half on a team that wasn't thought to be going anywhere this year by design and is outperforming relative to preseason expectation. He's right at the center of that. He's finally paying off being the kind of hitter who he was thought to be when he was coming up as a prospect. And then for him to sort of be able to put this cherry on top of his first half, I think it's just a really cool and special thing. And you want, I think you just, you want to mix

year to year. You know, we talk about this in the context of postseason play where I think it's good for there to be years where, like, the blue chippers win the World Series, because those teams have huge fan bases. They put a lot of time and money into their clubs. And then you want there to be years where there are surprises. Having that kind of sort of back and forth is, to me, suggestive of a healthy and sort of vibrant ecosystem in the game. And so, yeah, like, it is cool that the guy who wasn't necessarily thought to be the favorite ended up winning. the thing and doing it in dramatic fashion.

And when, you know, when Chorber got up there to hit first, we were all talking in the Ox Box were like, oh, I can't believe that they're not letting him go second. But in terms of the way that it built narrative momentum for the way Walker's round unfolded, like it ended up being kind of perfect in a way you wouldn't have been able to predict because he knew exactly how many he needed and stowed everybody else. He knew the number that he needed. Exactly. And so we all sit there and we're all, like,

you know, is he going to be able to pull this off? He has so few swings left. And, you know, every take is getting booed and every fly ball that falls short of the wall is getting cheered. And it ended up, I think, culminating in something very dramatic. And so, yeah, there, there certainly, I think every year it's worth the powers that be sort of engaging with the parts of the format that work well and the parts that could perhaps stand to improve. But at least in the ballpark, it was a really great event and I had a ton of fun. It's been the thing that as I have again been fortunate enough to sort of go to a bunch of these in a row that I have just been consistently surprised with how much I enjoy the derby.

Like I really, it's a really good time, man. And I know that it is, it's in a particular place. The tickets are expensive in that place. But I think it's the sort of thing where if you, you know, Chicago is next year. the Cubs are hosting in in 2027, assuming we have a season. And, you know, if you are in the Chicago land area and you look into a ticket to one of these events, like, it's worth going. Also, a bit of another dry corn hat tip. And Ben, I got to send you, but I have a mug now that's, it's Ben Franklin's head.

It's just Ben Franklin's head. He's wearing a tricorn hat. It's got a little All-Star Game logo on it. It's precious to me. Already. I'm looking at it across the hotel room right now. It's in bubble wrap because it's got to come home in one piece. It is enormous. I have no idea where I'm going to put this thing. It's just going to have to live in the dish trainer because it's not going to fit amongst the other mugs in the cabinet. There's no room for it. I got a little, I got a hat with the fanatic on it in a couple spots. I haven't yet been able to find a plushy of the fanatic with a tricorn hat. But if I don't find one because of the Ben Franklin mug, it's okay. I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm going to. I'm going to. I'm going to. to be satisfied from a merch perspective. Good. But a tip of the cap

to the city planners of Philadelphia who made SEPTA free after the derby so that folks could take public transit back to their hotels in Center City. So if you are going, I don't know if this will even go up before the All-Star game tonight.

But if it does and you are going to the All-Star game, I imagine that the same rules will be in effect this evening. And it certainly spared a portion of the Fangraph's crew, a very long wait for a lift back to the hotel. So just ride those rails, you know, they're free.

All right. Well, congrats to Walker. First Cardinal ever to win a derby. Yeah, how about that? First Cardinal to participate since 2012, I think. Who was the last Cardinal to participate? Oh, okay. Yeah.

How about that? And, yeah, Poole's never won one with the Cardinals. I think McGuire actually participated in one with the Cardinals. was doing it during the actual games. He was doing it in batting practice. But Pujols was there. Barry Bond's was there. They had a lot of luminaries on the scene doing various commentating.

But yeah, he was the fifth youngest derby winner, I believe, and the big finish. I think there had been no homers on a final swing until that final round. Wow. And Schwaber got only one, I think. And then Walker won up to him or four up to him. So fun stuff. Good format, I think. Minor tweaks to the broadcast would be appreciated, but I'm fine with this basic framework for now.

I do expect that there will be a drumbeat that builds for changes because it's the home run derby and it never stays the same. And I'm open to the idea that the event just grows stale after a certain number of years and that maybe after we have swings, people will advocate for outs or people will want to go back to the timer and then we'll just repeat the cycle. And maybe that's okay because it's just an exhibition. It's just for fun. Maybe keeping it fresh is more important than having the ideal format dialed in.

But this works for me for now. And I will be curious to see if and when we get numbers on the audience for this thing. Just because there was a time not too long ago when it seemed like the derby was really becoming the breakout baseball event. And Sam Miller wrote his piece, I think it was 2019, about imagining a film. future where the home run derby just displaces baseball itself and becomes the national pastime. And then there's the whole home run derby X circuit and everything. And I'm sort of skeptical. I think there's a ceiling and the appeal of this event just because it does get tedious after a certain number of swings and homers. I feel like once a year is fine for me. I don't really need to see that many.

And it's like the All-Star game swing off from last year that everyone got super excited about and was talking about, ooh, is this the way to end games who needs the zombie runner? You can do the swing-offs. It's like penalty kicks or something. Yeah. And I'm fine with consigning that to rare incidents. Yeah. With maybe an exhibition because these things are just more special when there's a scarcity to them.

I am not the target audience for the MLBX three on the MLBX three thing. And its presence on Sunday is just a source of resentment. for me because their insistence on sort of double booking the day that the futures game happens is really frustrating because it prevents us from getting a full nine inning game. Having said that, I do think there's some promise in that event if you can construct the right field. And I don't know that it needs to be a whole skills competition. I don't know how much it needs to happen. It could be a quick thing. And then you could have the futures game go nine and the quick fun thing.

But, you know, if you can properly identify the franchise icons who can still hit dingers, look, people go bonkers for that stuff. And then this field featured two softball players' beautiful swings that both of them hit dingers. And then Jordan Milato was on the field. who, Ben, he's a football player for the Eagles. Okay. We're just going back to this bit because it's going to be right more often than it's wrong. I can't unlearn everything I've learned, but yeah, the knowledge may fade. There's some detailed my lot of thoughts.

Fascinating, like, sports dev story. But anyway, he's not a baseball player is one thing we learned, although the swing wasn't as bad as I was maybe expecting it to be. But I think one of the things, I mean, it wasn't good, to be clear. It was pretty bad, but it wasn't, it was more serviceable than I was expecting. I thought it was going to be like more embarrassing. But you know how you have that experience when you're looking at a pro athlete and you're just like, wow, that is a big, that's a big person. And one of the ways that that enforces itself is when you get close to them.

And my experience of that is like, you know, if I am on the field like for batting practice and there was a big guy in the cage, you're like, holy Moses, that is just like a giant human. or like at the Combine when Brody Bumilla came into the suite and we were all just like that is the biggest teenager I've ever seen in my life and then you look at his hands and you're like those are the biggest human hands I've ever seen set aside demographic

but the proximity enforces the largeness right it reinforces the bigness of the person and then I had the experience on Sunday of distance enforcing hugeness where I was sitting in in the press box, the main box, because it's, you know, it's a futures game. So there are some more open seats

than there are the rest of the time. And we're sitting up there and we're executing our plan of action. What are we going to leave? What is Brandon's approach to his piece can it be, etc.? Jordan Milat is down there. And I'm just like, that is like the, I'm at a distance.

And look how big that guy is. You're just like the biggest man. You're like, yeah, I would, I'd feel better if you were in front of me and I played for the Eagles too. Be like, whoa. Okay. Yeah. So anyway, I think that there's, I think there is a lot of room for fun and creative approaches to all of these events.

And they're not all going to work. And as long as everyone's aware of that and like sort of applauds the approach of trying stuff, I think that the stakes are so low. We should just keep all of that in mind. And we can have that fun sort of experiment. casual vibe for that stuff. And then we can make the future game nine innings. And preserving your actual baseball.

Yeah. And everyone will be happy, Ben. Everyone. I'm sure. Yes. I'm sure. You can please everyone with some approach to the broadcast or format. Absolutely everyone will say, yes.

You nailed it. Nailed it. Okay. I was wrong, by the way. McGuire did participate in two home run derbies as a cardinal, his last two, 98 and 99. He didn't win. He didn't win.

99, he hit a lot of homers, but he didn't win. Griffey won that year. Okay. So you will provide a report on the All-Star game as well on the podcast later this week. Just one thing about that, we're recording before the game. But Neil Payne, who did some research on All-Star selections a couple of years ago at my prompting, which I reported on the podcast on episode 2189, I asked him to look into whether All-Star selections had gotten more dependent on single-season performance or present-season performance, as measured by war.

And that has been the case. And he just updated that research, not at my behest, at his substack, Neal's substack. And he broke it down this time in terms of position players and pitchers and also starters and relievers. And he found how important the current season and current season war is relative to prior season war, two seasons ago war. And he tracked this by decade going back to the 90s as well. And what he found last time holds up that it is becoming more and more dependent on first half performance and specifically first half war. Obviously, no one was paying attention to first half war in the 90s. So now we have war, so that makes sense, but also I think people are paying closer attention to it. But just to put it into perspective, so pre-All-Star break war was in the 90s, the relative importance of that to whether someone was an all-star was 69% nice waiting on that versus 16% for the preceding season and 16% from the season before that.

whereas in the 2020s so far it's 87% weight being placed on current season war, 87 versus 69, and then only 6 or 7% weight being placed on the preceding season. And it's even more pronounced for pitchers. That was for position players. Oh, interesting. Yeah, but now it's 97% weight on the current season for pitchers. And it was always higher. It was always in the 80s or 90s for pitchers in past seasons too, I guess.

I don't know. Pitchers are less predictable, more volatile, their injuries, and it's all subject to small sample with ERAs or win-loss record or whatever dictated that. But it's less dependent on currencies and performance for bullpen arms for relievers. Oh, interesting. Yeah, which was kind of counterintuitive to me. I might have thought it was even more heavy emphasis on. Yeah, you would think so.

Yeah, because it's just you have sort of a small sample, fuky, you know, great 30 innings with a, microscopic ERA or something, but I guess not maybe because, well, it could be because war doesn't do as great a job of measuring relievers, or at least if it does, it doesn't match quite as closely to the perception of those relievers maybe, and people are looking at other stats for that or saves or something, though there's less of an emphasis on saves these days, but I guess being a star reliever to the extent that that exists can kind of get you into a game. But I think part of this is also that there's a lot of weight on the prior to the All-Star break single season wonders, because for some of them, that's the entire MLB track record. It's like Kevin McGonagall or Travis Bazzano or Munitaka Morakami.

Well, they don't have any history of major league performance. So it is a little different, I think, if you look at, say, a highly rated rookie, someone who was a top prospect or a highly touted offseason overseas signing. That's a little different, I think, than just the pure first half fluke kind of thing, where it's just someone who had a track record of not being very good, but having been in the big leagues before gets to be an All-Star, that's a little different, I think, than if you're Kevin McGonigal, where, yeah, it is obviously based on just what you did that year,

but what you did that year is your whole body of work in the big leagues. And like, who knows how his career will unfold, right? But something that feels like it is approximating what we might expect of his performance, right? Like, it doesn't feel fluky even though there isn't a prior Big League track record to rely upon because of when he debuted. You know what I mean? Yeah. Like you're not looking at it like, well, Flash in the Pan, Kevin McGonigal. Right.

You're like, no, that guy's pretty good. Yeah. Yeah, and even Jordan Walker, obviously, was as highly rated as prospects come, but he was not very good over the preceding three years. Right. And especially the last couple, he was sub-replacement level. So in his case, it very much is sort of a, well, what have you done for me lately? He's done a lot for St. Louis lately. He's been way more valuable in the first part of this season than he had in the three partial seasons leading up to that. He, of course, came with that great. pedigree and reputation. So that's a little different. Or Louis Varland, for instance, who wasn't really well known prior to the postseason last year.

And then he had this prolific post season. And then he's been lights out this season. And so that's kind of a product of recency, not even bias, but just placing a lot of emphasis on what he has done lately. So. Well, and just, I'm sorry. Like, I don't have evidence for this. But I would hazard just.

because he pitches so dang much. Like his cue rating relative to both pedigree track record and like overall war production, it has to be like outsized in a way that no one else can replicate in the field because as we've established, every time I turn on the Blue Jays, Louis Varlane is pitching. He's just every day.

More than Dillon Cs. I feel like I've seen more Louis Varlanex innings than Dillin C's innings. And I know objectively that's not true because I've seen like, you know, three Dillen C. starts or whatever, but my my God. I just, yeah. Yeah, he is Blue Jay's Pucci,

basically. He's everywhere. It's true. And yeah, so I will link to Neil's research. I don't think it's a bad thing necessarily because I am kind of in the camp of you have to have been good that year. I think there's something to be said for Star Power, certainly.

And the event is lesser for, say, Shoho Tani, not being there for Aaron Judge, not being there, and for other guys who just are stars, but weren't off to a great start this season. But I do think it is imperative that the player actually have played well in the current season, even if they're not quite playing up to their peak performance, even if they're not the most deserving by war in the beginning of the season. I think they at least have to have had a credible, more or less all-star level performance,

or then it just kind of becomes a career accomplishment award. And we have the legacy picks by the commissioner, and I think that's a good institution. But, yeah, I think it should be representative of that season as well. It should be sort of telling the story of the first half. And I do mean actually the first half because that's pretty much what people are basing the voting and the selections are. So that's important to me, too, even though if you were going purely for ratings and interest, I guess you'd go with the biggest names regardless of whether they're doing well that year. It has to be a balance, but I'm fine with the balance being, leaning more a bit toward the present season performance direction. Anyway, I'll link to Neal's updated research on that, and All-Star game itself can be discussed on the next episode.

So just a couple other things before I let you get to the ballpark for the pregame festivities. You just attended a BBWAA meeting, correct? I did. And Bruce Meyer and Rob Manfred made appearance. at said meeting and said things at said meeting. So anything interesting that you gleaned from their comments or statements or questions they were asked? Sure.

They didn't give a dual press conference, by the way. They usher them in separately. They make sure Myers out of the room. Then Mayer comes in. With a break in between. I don't think that we heard anything new today from either party to the negotiation. And of course, you know, the questions they were asked were not entirely rooted in the CBA, although that was a heavy theme. But, you know, they were both asked about gambling, both in general and Bryce Harper specific terms as it relates to the Fandul video and what have you. You know, there were a number of questions around Olympic participation and how mandatory or not it would be, although the understanding, I think, from both of them is that, they're in such early stages of negotiating around that stuff that there's not really much to report

at this at this point um and obviously the Olympic participation negotiations will take a backseat to the actual CBA negotiations although you know both parties seem committed to to MLB players participating MLB players seem to want to participate whether they will be um incentivized or required to participate i think is one of the questions it obviously has implications for where the All-Star game is that year. My main takeaway, and we can quibble with the interpretation of facts on the ground that both of them might have presented particularly Rob Manfred. But I think one of the things that I was struck by is that the league is really going to lean on this notion

that they are simply doing what their fans want when it comes to trying to, trying to implement a salary cap. That is the justification that was offered by Manfred. It was reiterated several times. He even put it in the context of, you know, as he is talking to the various ownership groups in the league that, you know, he has been heartened by, and I'm not quoting directly here, but paraphrasing what he said, that, you know, he has been heartened by his ability to convince them of it, of the importance of appeasing fans on this question, right? That they view competitive balance to be a real issue and that their sort of desired and preferred solution to that as an issue is a cap and floor system that resembles the one you see in, in the NFL and

the NHL and the NBA. He was asked, he being, Manfred was asked about the level playing field commercials. You know, he was asked if this is in fact a genuine and organic sentiment on the part of your fans,

why do you feel the need to advertise this issue? And he was like, well, you know, both parties in a negotiation are going to put their opinion enforce and if, you know, we feel that the other side isn't necessarily reflecting reality. Like it just makes sense. Why wouldn't we say it? Again, I'm paraphrasing. But sort of rejecting the idea

of this being advertising so much as communication and reinforcement of unagreed upon reality, even though I think the question is highly contested. So I think that we are in for, um, we're in for a long winter, both Bruce and Rob sort of shied away from saying that their respective camps were willing to miss a season over it. But Bruce reiterated that this is an issue that is central to the union's sort of understanding of itself, that this is like a thing that they have been, this being the implementation of a cap, has been sort of a bright line for them for a long time and will continue to. to be. And I want to acknowledge my own perspective on, like, labor questions generally when I say this, because I'm sure that there are things to quibble with when it comes to sort of Bruce's presentation of the facts, although I tend to agree with his understanding of both the health of the game and the best and fairest thing when it comes to the distribution of revenue. But Manfred was

asked about the draft proposals and why it's a priority for the league to restrict the eligibility of high school players and make the draft something that is only accessible to college athletes. And his answer was, well, this is the state of play. You know, 70% of our draftees come from the college ranks. And it's like, well, that's true. But also the first overall pick in last year's draft was literally a high schooler, right? Like, all you have to do. is look at this year's draft to see that high schoolers still go high, that they are well regarded

as prospects, you know, that they are viewed as having meaningful big league potential. The raise, just as we discussed with Eric, they just took a high school shortstop number two overall, right? And so you just, you end up in this situation where you do feel something of a discombobulation because it's hard to know how much of the rhetoric. around this stuff is just a genuine disagreement over the interpretation of the facts, but that those facts were offered in good faith and how much of it is an actual attempt at medium manipulation to sort of get a particular agenda present. So, you know, all of that to say that I think that we're in for a long negotiation. And that's not surprising.

you know, we've been trying to encourage people to sort of take these initial proposals in stride and just understand that these are the first sort of volleys in what is likely to be a long war. And the fact of the matter is that there's not going to be, at least in my opinion, any headway made until the first proposal after the league decides they don't need a cap, right? because everything that they are proposing is at least in part predicated on a cap and floor system. And so until they decide we are at risk of losing a number of games that we are unwilling to lose and we'll move on or the union folds, and you can probably guess which of those things I think is more likely, we're not getting anywhere. Because you can't talk about redefining amateur entry.

You can't talk about changing the structure of free agency when the structure of free agency as the owners want to define it is predicated on hard salary restrictions that are directly tied to a cap system. And you can't talk about how you might rework or reposition the draft until we agree that you're not going to cut it to 12 rounds and restrict the size of bonus pools. So for all the words that have been spoken back and forth, we're basically nowhere. Yeah. You know, I mean, and I don't say that to be fatalistic, and I don't say it because my opinion

of like how many games we're going to lose has fundamentally changed or anything like that. It's just like, it is every time you hear from either side, it becomes clear that at least until the cap piece of it is is removed from the discussion, there's no, there's no moving forward, right? Because you have one side that is trying to alter the economic system within the existing system, right, to change things, but to retain the basic structure we have now. And then you have one side that is trying to fundamentally upend that system. And you can't have any agreement until the two sides are operating within the same set of constraints in reality. And right now they just

aren't. Yeah, it reminds me of that season one West Wing episode where Sam Seaboard says to Leo McGarry, Leo, there are times when we are absolutely nowhere. So that's where we are. I think we'll get somewhere, but we're not somewhere yet. We're still nowhere. But that is, it's a good point. Yeah, when they decide to give up that pipe dream, if it is one for this round, that will have some bearing on how quickly the rest of it plays out. And, you know, it's going to be a bunch of back and forth in recrimination. And here, I will nitpick one thing. Like, you know, Bruce was asked about the reality of the amateur draft proposal and the fact that those folks are not in the union yet and will their interests basically be sacrificed to the interests of the existing membership.

And, you know, Bruce was like, well, that's never happened. It's like, well, yeah, it has. I mean, come on. You know, he did paint a portrait of the history of the MLBPA and its membership that perhaps overstated the constancy of the solidarity across particular demographics. But, you know, we just will wait and see. And the final thing I'll say about this is that, you know, there will be, I'm sure, plenty of interaction between the media, both members of the BBWA who were present at this meeting. and those who are not so affiliated going forward. But it did strike me. It's like, oh, this is the last time we're all going to be in this room together for a while because in all likelihood we will not have a winter meetings because there will be a lockout.

And this availability only happens at the All-Star Break anyway. But it's like, oh, it did feel a little melancholy to me. I'm not saying that was the energy in the room or anything like that, but I felt a little melancholy about it. because it's like, oh, right, we're in for a long and sort of separated winter as these things unfold. Yeah, one thing about Manfred's comments, I know that this season's standings aren't really going to dictate the outcome of these negotiations. But when he was harping on the need for competitive balance, I believe that in order for this game to reach its full potential, we need to continue to address concerns that our fans have, particularly concerns that go to the core of what we're about competitive balance. we need to make sure that fans in markets at the beginning of the season have a realistic belief that their team has a chance to win.

I think that we need a system where fans, particularly in smaller markets, can have some hope. The players that are signed and developed by their organization can actually stay there through free agency. And honestly, I think we need a system where there is a more robust free agent markets. So if you don't want to go to New York or Los Angeles, you have a realistic opportunity to get viable free agent contracts. And I also think we have an obligation to our players to get into a system where salary growth in baseball is not the slowest among the four major. or professional sports leagues. So going on and on about competitive balance when the standings look like they do right now.

Right. And there are all sorts of teams that are, how can you say that fans don't have hope? And he was asked about that, right? Because you're right, as we are sitting here recording with, you know, the break before us, the rays are in first place in the AL East and the Brewers are one of the best teams in baseball

and leading the Central. and there is a range. Obviously, the AL Central is what it is, but there the Guardian sit. And he did sort of quit. He's like, I know it gives Bruce some talking points. And it's like, well, yeah, Rob, it does because there they are. And, you know, there's this funny contrast.

He opened his remarks because each of them sort of gives sort of a little, you know, 10, 15 minute stand up. and then they take questions. And he opened his remarks about how attendance is up and viewership is up. And not only are ratings up, but they're up with younger people. And the league has been able to sort of successfully capitalize on some of the boosts that the World Cup has given them, right? That they've seen some positive sort of cross-pollination there. I think both from an attendance and ratings perspective, the Derby was so great.

and all of these events this week have been so wonderful, and Philly has been such a great host city. And then he immediately is transitioning into this sort of doom and gloom out, you know, forecast for the state of things. And he was asked to sort of reconcile that. And he's like, well, you know, the best way to arrest positive momentum is to just like let things be stagnant. And we've been able to accomplish all of this

because of the feedback of our fans and the rule changes that they've liked and the MLBPA resistance, and, you know, and so this is just more listening to the fans. And, of course, it's a brief availability. And so no one had the opportunity to ask, well, you know, because he was also asked about sort of what is their method of gauging fan priorities. Like, how do you know what the fans want? He talked about the polling firms that they use and focus groups.

And, you know, of course, the natural follow-up is, well, if the fans told you they didn't want a cap, would you take it off the table? No, of course you wouldn't. I don't want to suggest that there is a, a perception problem because I do think that there are a lot of fans who look at the Dodgers and think that baseball isn't fair. You know, we've talked about this. And I think that there is some attention that needs to be paid to that. There needs to be sort of an approach to making this whole project feel better for some fan bases. You know, we've offered suggestions on that that the league isn't

interested in just having a floor, no cap. You know, they don't want to live in that world. Their owners don't want to live in that world. But so I don't mean to say that like the the fan piece of it isn't something that they're sensitive to. I think that they are. They're running a business and that business is purchased by fans, right? The consumers of the product are fans. And so if for no other reason, then they have, you know, a highly motivated self-interest to keep people happy. I think it would be disingenuous to say they have no either understanding or cared toward the fan experience. But it would also be ridiculous to suggest that that is the primary motivating factor for them wanting a capped system.

It's just obviously untrue. And the fact that there's parity in the standings this season doesn't mean there's complete parity when it comes to resources and audiences. Of course, that's not the case. So it's somewhat surface level and disingenuous to pretend that there's complete parity in all realms because of the standings. But it does make it tough to argue that fans don't have hope when clearly a ton of teams are very much in it.

And also whether or not you have everyone outbidding the Yankees or Dodgers in free agency. I mean, not that the Yankees lately have always been the high bidders in free agency, but when you have teams signing their players to long-term extensions earlier in their careers, as we talked about with Eric last time, you're sort of preempting free agency because you're just keeping them off the market entirely. So that's one path available to people. But, yeah, it is a difficult dance to do. Bruce had that list of names.

I'm sure. He was ready. to lay them all out and he covered he covered the whole gamut on that score. It's tough to choreograph that approach though because, right, Manfred, and he's been knocked in the past for not selling the sport and just pointing out the problems with it. And to some extent he was doing that

in order to get changes across and he had legitimate points when he was talking about games being too slow or too long or whatever. And so that was in service of selling a pitch clock and all the other changes. But he was often the one sort of going, oh, woe is us, and here's what's wrong with baseball, whereas people expect a commissioner to be sort of promoting the sport. And maybe that's kind of an inaccurate understanding of what the commissioner's actual role is. But he is trying to sell the sport to broadcast partners, which is to the benefit of the people he works for.

And so he wants to make it sound like, hey, there's a lot of interest in baseball. Baseball is thriving. You want to be in the baseball business. because a lot of people will watch our programming. But then he also, at the same time, has to be like baseball is broken, and we need to dramatically overhaul the whole economic system or else. And so, yeah, to sell it as like, yeah, things are great, but if we don't change everything, things won't be great.

Things will be bad. It's a little tough to do that dance. So anyway, we will continue to track all of that. One thing that came up, I guess briefly in those addresses but was mentioned in some articles on Tuesday, is the negotiation over players' participation in the Olympics in 2028, which is pretty interesting too, because it seems like the All-Star Games probably going to be in San Francisco, and there will be an extended All-Star break, and you'll have big leaguers participating in the Olympics, but all of that is subject to negotiation, and the sides are still somewhat far,

part when it comes to the specifics there. And Jeff Passon published a piece on Tuesday morning about this, and it leads with Major League Baseball has gathered support from owners to allow Big League players to participate in the Olympics for the first time, but disagreements with the MLBPA

over hotel rooms, tickets, and a mandatory participation agreement have complicated their involvement in the 2028 LA Games. And it goes on to say that their plans to shut down the sport for 11 days, and then There would be the 16th tournament, it'd be at Dodger Stadium.

Saying it's about hotel rooms, tickets, and a mandatory participation agreement, I think probably the mandatory participation agreement seems like the big thing. I'm not suggesting that players don't care about how many comp seats and rooms and tickets they get. Sure, they do. But the mandatory participation, that seems like a pretty big deal because MLB wants players to be compelled. to participate. So it says potential complications have arisen during negotiations which involve a complex web of issues that include hotel rooms, tickets, insurance, NIL rights, and the mandatory participation agreement proposed by the league that would place players who run a foul of requirements

on the restricted list without pay or service time from July 12 to August 3rd, according to a copy of the league's proposals obtained by ESPN. And they want to do that because they want all the big stars and they want show hay and they want judge. They don't want it to be like this All-Star Gamer Homer and Derby. They want it to be a true showcase of the biggest guys and not to have it like previous WBCs where it was tough to get players to participate sometimes. Then it says, beyond balking at compulsory involvement for all players, the MLPPA strongly opposes a deal that would allow placement on the restricted list, as well as Commissioner Rob Menford's ability in the agreement to discipline for just cause with a fine and or unpaid suspension, according

to the league's proposal, the union has not responded with its own proposal as of yet. I mean, that sounds like a pretty big sticking point more so than tickets and hotel rooms. And there's other stuff like the Olympics have their own drug testing agreement and everything. And that's different and tests for different substances like cannabis or whatever than MLB does, then the joint agreement does. But that's a big thing. Like I think a lot of players would be pretty enthusiastic about participating in the Olympics. Certainly, Bryce Harper has been a big advocate.

He even said during the WBC that the WBC is not quite the same as the Olympics and everything. So I don't know that you'd have to twist players' arms to get them to go. Of course, it's mid-season, and you're going to have guys who are nursing injuries and pitcher usage and all the rest of it, injury risk, everything. But I think a lot of players would probably jump at that potentially once in a career opportunity. But to make it mandatory and to say that if you don't want to play in the Olympics, You don't even get paid like you're going to be on the restricted list or something. That seems quite heavy-handed. So I would certainly understand balking at that.

It seems like the sort of thing that does require like a real negotiation. There are important questions here. I, you know, I'm sure that some of it is more trivial but also probably easier to resolve. You know, like you just, I think we have a good precedent. for what big league standard is around, you know, hotel accommodations and comps and all of that stuff. So I imagine that that is relatively easy to sort compared to, you know, questions of mandatory participation and what have you. And I understand the argument, the argument that the league is making, which is like, what's the difference to you? There would be games played during this time of year

without the Olympics, so just play them for Team USA or whatever. But, you know, I think that we can imagine scenarios where a guy, you know, maybe a guy gets hurt. Like, what if you're a pre-free agency pitcher and you're compelled to participate in Team USA action and then you blow out? Well, maybe you would have blown out anyway, but the risk calculus I can understand being different in one environment where your performance is directly correlated to your future compensation and another where it isn't. That seems like a sticking point that would be reasonable. I also, and this is a genuinely open question, I'm curious, like, how how necessary is the compulsion, really, right? Because we have seen WBC participation skyrocket,

and at a time of year where I think that players are more sort of understandably nervous to, to dip away, either because they're worried it's going to mess up their preparation for the season to come, or because they're not fully ramped up and are more concerned about injury as a result of that. And even with those limitations, like we saw, at least for the American team, like a real turning point this year

in terms of the quality of the pitchers who decided that they were willing to play for Team USA. So I mean, surely it is, it's a sticking point to some degree because of the All-Star stuff of it all. But I don't know. Like, you've got two years to get everybody on board with it and start your campaign to get your best guys involved. And I don't know,

if Mark DeRosa couldn't turn them off at WBC, how hard could it be? Yeah. There's an email that ESPN reported here from Ian Penny, who is a lawyer and special advisor at the MLBPA. And in late June, wrote, the MLBPA is seeking fair treatment for its members in consideration for the substantial financial value they would bring to LA28. Ideally, that consideration would closely align with the value created and include direct compensation. However, what these proposals are largely designed to accomplish is to prevent our members from losing money by participating, whether due to expenses incurred or commercial rights lost, both individually and collectively, given the significant financial benefits flowing to non-athlete stakeholders in the games, we view these proposals

as particularly modest and imminently reasonable. And it does say imminently reasonable, not eminently reasonable. I don't know whether that's a typo by penny or an ESPN misquote. I like the idea that that soon they'll be reasonable. They're not reasonable now, but imminently, our proposals will be remedy. Just give it a minute. Yeah, which is, I mean, that's probably true. That's how negotiations work, I guess. But, yeah, obviously, this was a big thing for the NHL at the Olympics.

And so it could be a big showcase for baseball. And you know MLB wants that in advance of the broadcast contracts expiring at the end of 2028 to have a big summer showcase for baseball and have all the biggest stars and six teams. there's a lot that would have to be done with hockey. They didn't agree on a deal until July 2nd of last year, which was 209 days before the Olympics started, were 720 days before the scheduled first start of Olympic baseball in 28. So there's time, except that a lot of stuff has to be planned before then.

So there's the All-Star game. They might have to start the season, a little sooner. They would end the pre-All-Star break scheduled July 9th. Then there'd be the home run derby in the All-Star game the next two days. Then they'd do the Olympics starting on July 13th, which is actually right before the opening ceremony. And then there would be medal games July 19th. And then everyone would be back and the regular season would restart July 21st. So it's less of a break than in men and women's hockey where the seasons really are suspended for weeks.

But it's still longer than we're accustomed to in baseball. But worth it in a lot of respect. for the sport and perhaps for the players and the exposure and everything. So I hope they do work it out. But, yeah, it certainly seems like there's some stuff to figure out. A little bit of distance to cover, both eminently and imminently. Yeah. Maybe just imminently, but certainly eminently?

Yeah. I don't know. Is it eminently bridgible gap? Hopefully. I meant to say also that one of the nice things about the All-Star Game in the Home Run Derby is just seeing all the All-Stars just hang out in this. exhibition setting and they're just kind of, yeah, they're just lounging on the field and they got their families and they got little kids and they're teaching them about the game and they're

associating with each other in ways that they don't get to do during the course of the regular season, which is another thing about the WBC that's cool because it brings people from different teams together as teammates. And I think the epitome of this, this year for me, I read an article by Pete Abraham and the globe about Sadan Raphaelah and Pete Carr Armstrong and how they kind of have a little love affair going and it's great. Yeah, because I've associated these two guys in my mind

because they both play spectacular center field and they had very similar trajectories last year where they had such hot first halves and then they just kind of cratered and were bad from then on and they were sort of similar players in that they sort of swung it. everything and didn't walk much and then had such great gloves in center. And now, of course, I think PCA has leapfrogged Raphaela.

He's been twice as valuable this year. He's a hair behind Shohei in Fancraft's War for the major league lead. And he walks now, which is, yeah, maybe one thing that could come out of these conversations because they were spending some time together on Sunday and then had a longer conversation on Monday. And in this piece, they basically just declare each other. their respective favorite players, which is so cool. I mean, you know, maybe not including teammates, not on a personal level necessarily,

but just players they admire and enjoy. Sadan Rafaelo was PCA's answer when he was asked who his favorite player is. He said, I'm a huge fan of anybody who can play multiple positions, but then you add in the fact that he's a gold glover, and there's nothing to dislike about Sadan's game. I like playing against him and I like watching him. And, of course, he was a late addition to the All-Star game, Raphaela, that is. And Raphaelah said, I saw PCA on Sunday and he said,

hey, how are you? It's my favorite player. And I told him, you're mine too. He's a great player and a great person and it's great to have a chat with him. Just so hard-working, you know. It's just really sweet. And it's, yeah, maybe PCA could instruct Raphaela on walking a bit more because then he could also level up on offense a little bit.

Yeah. But, you know, I just, I really like that. that these guys who maybe don't get a ton of time together in this sort of setting get to spend time with each other and express their affection and appreciation for each other, both to each other and also to the media. Yeah. Yeah, I like the unlikely friendships, the best buds that we find out about. It was fun to, you know, they keep panning to folks during the Derby.

And, man, Jesus Lazzardo was going nuts for both of the Phillies during. during that stretch. And as time went on, people were cheering for everybody. I do think my favorite players being goofy or adorable moment was when Randy Rosarino almost missed the AL-All-Star team picture. Oh, yeah, I saw your picture of that. Rinking across the fields.

Got out there just in time for them to reset and retake it. But I was like, oh, Randy. Yeah, it's nice. All right. And players who are normally forced to be on opposing sides, well, I guess they still are because PCA and Rafael are in different leagues, but still, not really. So they get to hang out, and they're close in age.

Raphael is a little older than PCA, but close enough. So love those baseball bonds. And the last thing, I guess we could segue from Raphaela to the red hot redsox and the ice-cold A's entering the break, because these two teams, the Red Sox entered the break on a nine-game winning streak, and the A's entered the break on a nine-game losing streak. And if you look at changes in playoff odds since the start of July, the Red Sox are the number one gainers.

They're up 26.4 percentage points since the start of July, and the A's are the number one losers. They're down 16.6 percentage points since the start of July. And also, they just fired their pitching coach. So these are two teams moving in very different directions. and reshaping where they stand entering trade deadline season. And so I'm kind of bummed that the A's have fallen out of it a little bit and have run into this rough patch because that is a fun team

or I thought it would be a fun team. And it's tough. Like they fire Scott Emerson as their pitching coach, who's been in the organization in various capacity, is going back to like Moneyball time 2002. And they elevated their bullpen coach, Dan Hubbs, to this role. that's rough because no one really thought the A's pitching was going to be good. Yeah, but they also have the, like, if you look at the last 30 days split on our leaderboard by team,

like they do have the worst ERA in the majors over that time. Their FIP is real garbage. They have been worth, you know, negative 1.2 wins, the worst FIP in the majors. I agree with you that the expectations of that staff, both I think in the rotation and in the bullpen, were pretty low, but they also have been playing, pitching some pretty poor baseball over the last month.

And he's been the pitching coach for quite some time, so it could be partly on him that the expectations were low to begin with. But it's tough because they've had trouble recruiting pitchers and getting guys to want to play there and spending money and stuff in the past, too. And then it does seem like they have some guys, who have come up through the organization, like Gage Jump is good. And they also have this stark disparity

in their performance on the road and at home. Sure. Which you would expect, given the park in West Sacramento. But they have been quite good on the road, really. So they have the 11th best ERA and the ninth best FIPP on the road, and that's comparing their road performance

to all other teams' road performances. So they've actually been, good when they are away from their home park. But at home, it's been a complete disaster. So they are dead last in ERA at home, 6.37. And they are dead last in FIP at home as well, 5.7. And part of that is just the park. That's not park adjusted, obviously. And then I guess it's, I don't know if there's a way to adjust to pitch in that park more effectively that they haven't done. But clearly, there's There's something there if they're able to hold their own on the road like that. And so I don't know if it's just a park effect.

It's entirely the park's fault or whether it's just manifesting itself even more there. They have failed to pitch to the park in some way. Anyway, he's the fall guy. Of course, the offense hasn't been that great either. And if they were just really great at hitting and terrible at pitching, that's sort of what was expected. They've been, they have a 99 WRC plus also. So they're 17th in WRC plus and they're 24th in position player war. And yeah, they've had injuries and stuff, but who hasn't?

So that's as disappointing as anything that they haven't made up for the pitching shortcomings by just slugging the way that they were sort of expected to also. Yeah, I think that, you know, it's a combination of things. And I'm sure that, you know, the fact that they are so much better on the road suggests that their true talent is better than what we have seen. But also, I think they're not, they have no margin for error on the pitching side. And so they can't weather, like, offensive spoons in quite the same way because they just don't have that sort of run prevention floor to rely on where they can keep the margins tight and not have to worry about it. So I think that this is the reality of your franchise when you're going to spend some number of, of years in a minor league park. It's going to present environmental challenges to you as a result of the way the park plays. And it creates recruiting challenges for you because big leaders don't

necessarily want to sign on to play their long term and not think that they're going to see Vegas. So I think that a lot of the guys they have on that team are really promising. And many of them are going to be around long enough that they will be still, I think, good and productive when they actually have like a real big league facility. Not that that park won't present some challenges of its own. You can engineer your way around some of them, but there is just a reality to playing at that in Vegas that they're going to have to contend with. But I don't know. I think that this is kind of how it's going to be for them for a little while. And they might have seasons in the midst of that where the pitching is better or the offense is really outstanding. And if some of their young

pitching prospects come along and are able to contribute, okay, fine. You could still still. have years where things are working out the way you want them to. But I think the downside scenario looks a lot like what we're saying. And as for the Red Sox, they are red hot. They have won nine in a row. They've won 14 of their last 16. This started when they swept the Yankees in a four-game series. And I don't want to oversell it. They're 46 and 48. Right. It's not good. but they have vaulted themselves back into contention here in a very real way. And this is a team that was expected to be good and was forecasted to be a top contender. And so maybe it's just regression finally working for them.

They have a 40% chance to make the playoffs, according to fan graphs. I don't know. I might even take the over on that at this stage. their fourth best run differential in the American League, which is not saying that much because it's the American League this year. But they have looked a lot better. They are now, I think, under Chad Tracy, they're one of the better teams in baseball. It's not like a total turnaround, but they're 36 and 31 now after this hot streak, which is the third best record in the league. and, you know, I wouldn't say Craig Breslo

completely exonerated and vindicated, but some things have turned around a little bit. Like extremely slow starter Caleb Durbin has been a lot better. He's basically been what you would hope for, I guess, for Durbin, good defense. The bad has kind of come around. He's been, by some measures, about as valuable as Kyle Harrison,

who got hurt, right? And so that little belated break. out has been halted here, along with Brandon Woodruff hurting his shoulder again, which just really really stinks. Every time he comes back, he looks like his old self. And then another thing snaps in his shoulder or something. It's rough. But incredible defense for the socks, which is not surprising.

That was what they did last year, too. But this outfield is just fantastic because of the aforementioned Raphaela, flanked by Duran and Abrayu. I mean, these guys just kind of catch everything. So that's really helping. And even though they've gotten nothing basically from Crochet, which is a big part of this, like getting nothing from Crochet or Roman Anthony, that's a huge setback. And yet the defense has helped them compensate. And they've gotten good work out of some of the rookie pitchers, Tully and early, though he's now injured.

And Jake Bennett. So that's starting to pay dividends, some of these leftovers from the Bloom era as well. And, you know, starting to get guys like Anthony Siegler, who's from that Durban deal also. Yeah. He's done well. And Ranger Suarez is pitching like he was expected to pitch. Eraldus Chapman, who was extended last year, is continuing, just ageless eternal Chapman, just continuing to pitch pretty effectively.

So, you know, they're getting some guys back soon in theory. Trevor Story for however long he lasts and Suarez, they should be back by the end of the month. So there's some work to be done here. I think there's some deadline dealing to do as well. But the bones of this team just are still sort of solid. I just, I still kind of like the foundation the way that I did a few months ago before everything went south. Yeah, I mean, like, I famously picked them. to win the world series.

Yeah. So I'm thrilled that they are playing in a way that is commensurate with my understanding of their talent. And yeah, they, you know, we don't need to overstate the case. A team is never as bad as their worst streak or as hot as their hottest hot streak. And they are still two games under 500. But that felt impossible a couple of weeks ago. Yeah.

Because of they were playing a very uninspired brand of baseball. They had all these guys hurt. So it seems like they're in a position to potentially take advantage of how weak the American League is, which doesn't mean that they are necessarily as good a team as I thought they were going to be at the beginning of the season, but they surely weren't as bad as they had been playing either. And falling somewhere in between those two points might well be good enough this year. They're half a game out of playoff position, as improbable as that sounds. They're half a game behind the twins and Meg's Mariners.

And of course, there's a big jumble of teams directly behind them as well, so it's not going to be easy. But it is well within their grasp. And you would not necessarily have said that even when July started. And the vultures were waiting. And everyone was sort of seeing whether they would sell, whether they would be trade deadline divesters. And now you kind of have to see them. Of course, they could always have. Again, it's a long season.

and we're still weeks away from the trade deadline. And so maybe things will go south again. But as they stand right now, you sort of have to see them as a team that would add, I think, more so than a team that would subtract. I think that's right. Okay. Well, we will see how that all pans out. And I will not be with you next time. So you have the podcast con because it turns out how do you get me to take an episode off?

you send me a summons for jury duty. So as a upstanding citizen, I must answer the call. I actually thought I had slipped through the cracks somehow because I was actually on a jury. I was selected and was on a jury, but it must have been, oh gosh, I don't know, a dozen years ago or something. It was a long time ago. It seems long enough for you to be back in the pool. I guess so. I hadn't heard a peep since then.

And I was thinking, gosh, did I slip through the cracks? Did I get lost in the shuffle? Did the system forget about me? I moved. Did they not know I moved or something? But no, the long arm of the government has tracked me down. And so I will be showing up on Thursday to do my duty. And we'll see how long that lasts.

But you've got some travel post All-Star break. And so because of the travel and because of my summons, I will not be available on that day. So I will sit back and listen along with everyone else. And I will be eager to hear your review of the All-Star Games. and whatever else you venture about. Sounds good. Well, much as we're glad that Pete Carr Armstrong and Saddam Raphael, respect each other's talents, All-Star Game, recognize All-Star Game, we're glad you enjoy what we do,

or that if you don't, you listen regardless, and you can support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon.com slash Effectively Wild, and signing up to pled some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going, help us stay ad-free, and get yourself access to some perks, as have the following five listeners, Solomon DeVine, Andrew Burton, Matt Kassnick, Sean McCormick, and Matt DePain, thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include access to a third unrestricted episode each week, a monthly bonus episode, you should hear what hijinks we get up to on those, exclusive live streams, membership in our Discord group for patrons only, prioritized email answers, personalized messages, shoutouts at the end of episodes, potential podcast appearances, fan graphs, memberships, and more. check out all the offerings at patreon.com slash effectively wild. If you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site.

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Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. I look forward to joining the audience for the next episode, so I will talk to you next week, but Meg will be back later this week. How do you calculate more? Does it come from the heart? Should we use defensive runs safe or follow the o'clock? away away who's gone away with their quips and opinions it's effectively wild effectively wild