Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2514: The Deadline, From Adell to Zeferjahn

Episode Date: August 5, 2026

After talking Tarik Skubal and a few other early acquisitions in the preceding pod, Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley recap the rest of the trade deadline in detail, from Adell to Zeferjahn (with many non-ex-Angels in between): the biggest surprises, the winners and losers, and the various reminders that life comes at you fast. Audio intro: Garrett Krohn, “Effectively Wild Theme” Audio outro: Alex Ferrin, “Effectively Wild Theme” Link to Skubal trade EW discussion Link to Ben on the Skubal trade Link to Andy M. on the Brewers and Skubal Link to Brewers “we tried” article 1 Link to Brewers “we tried” article 2 Link to Hogg post Link to Roberts quote Link to Skubal quote Link to Dodgers super-rotation post Link to SP RoS projections Link to SP depth charts Link to Trueblood on the Brewers Link to mlb.com trade tracker Link to FG trade post round-up Link to FG winners/losers post Link to Ben on Spider-Man Link to Baumann’s Rockies headline Link to Wade/Ward wiki Link to Brebbia news Link to Harper OF move Link to May monthly award winners Link to Toboni comments Link to Elias comments Link to ZiPS deadline breakdown Link to Kostka tweet Link to FG farm rankings Link to “subtle” oblique strain Link to Lombard call-up Link to Lombard dinger Link to white flag trade Link to Law on Mayer Link to Partners INW Link to wildfire response fund Link to fire relief fund Link to Red Cross donation site  Sponsor Us on Patreon  Give a Gift Subscription  Email Us: [e-mail]  Effectively Wild Subreddit  Effectively Wild Wiki  Apple Podcasts Feed   Spotify Feed  YouTube Playlist  Facebook Group  Bluesky Account  Twitter Account  Get Our Merch! var SERVER_DATA = Object.assign(SERVER_DATA || {}); Source

We're going to crunch those stats. We're going to talk about baseball, sticky stuff and torpedo bats. We'll talk about it all if you want good takes on baseball and life. Just tune in a bed and his lovely co-host. Ben and Meg, it's effectively wild. Hello and welcome to episode 2514 of Effectively Wild, a Fangraphs baseball podcast brought you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Rowley of Fangraphs and I'm joined by Ben Lindbergh of the ringer.

Ben, how are you? I'm doing well. I think I probably had a little less editing to do than you over the past couple days. But I've been busy in other ways. I'm glad that we've gotten our work done whatever it was. I wrote about Spider-Man. Oh, okay. I bet that was just as hard, you know?

I bet that that took as much energy in brain space. I don't mean to diminish Spider-Man, but, you know, the first Spider-Man movie that avoids the with great power comes great responsibility line will be the first one probably. It's true. I mean, you've got to play the hits sometimes. And talking about the trade deadline,

that's one of the hits for fan graphs and for effectively wild. So we will be playing that too. And, you know, last time we talked for, oh, an hour or so about the Dodgers trade for Terrick Scoobel. So kind of glad we got that out of the way. We can mostly set the Dodgers aside for this episode. We have plenty of other trades to tackle. Although, I regret to inform everyone that the trade for Terrick Scoobal was not the last deal the Dodgers made with an AL Central team for a left-handed rental arm coming off an injury. who was an All-Star last season,

they also acquired Chris Bubich. So if you didn't think that the Dodgers had broken baseball before, then maybe this is the straw that breaks the back. Chris Bubich, they have completely broken baseball now. It's just such an easy name to make jokes off of, you know. It is. Yeah. And much as you don't mean to diminish Spider-Man,

I don't mean to diminish Chris Bubich. No. In fact, well, I was going to quiz you on this. but just by asking, I'm giving away the answer. But do you know which starter other than Terrick Scouble traded at the deadline has the best projected rest of season FIPP on the Fangraph's depth charts? Because there were many starters who changed teams and some prominent starters and Soriano and Gossman and Robbie Ray and we could go on and we will go on. But no, it wasn't any of them. it was, as you have probably surmised, Chris Bubich, the second best starter traded at the deadline, technically, sort of.

It would be so funny if you did a little misdirect and you were like, it was Casey Mize, actually. Yeah, he's another good starter, the Tigers traded. But Chris Boobich is actually pretty good. Again, I don't mean to linger too long on Chris Boobich. He is kind of the classic Dodgers pitcher in that he's hurt in more than one way. But if and when he's healthy, he would actually probably. probably be pretty good. I mean, it really does. I'm not going to say that they're trading for Chris Wubich drives home their blueprint and the dominance of their pitching and the depth of their

pitching more than the acquisition of Terek's scouple, because that would be silly. But it does really lay bare their game plan, which is just let's stockpile as many theoretically effective arms as possible. And we will have like nine guys who are good at. And we will have, like, nine guys who are good enough to start a game for a playoff team. And hopefully four of them will be healthy when we need them to be. Right. And anyone else, we will just move to the bullpen or they'll just be on the IL or whatever. And we will swallow that and no harm, no foul.

But it is nuts when you look at the number of names on that starting pitcher, Defshar. I know that he's like approaching a rehab assignment or not even yet. And by the time he works his work. way back. If he does, he might not have time to get stretched out as a starter. So he might just be a bullpen arm, if anything. But this is what the Dodgers do. Let's just get an absolute embarrassment of riches with our embarrassment of riches. And we'll have just two depth charts worth of starting pitchers. And hopefully it will all work out one way or another. Well, and it's funny because, you know, we touched on this a little bit last time when we were talking about sort of one of the ways

that they press their advantage in the draft, considering how late they are often selecting. But, like, I do think that their high risk tolerance around the injury stuff, which is borne out by their depth rate and supported by it, is a low-key, underrated advantage that they have. It's like, well, I don't know,

it'll work out or it won't. We're not relying on this guy who's currently on the 60-day to be able to make it to October or to throw meaningful innings for us. now there have been times when they've been like, I don't know, we got like two and a half arms. So good luck to us out there. Yeah. And they still won the World Series in 2024, even though that was the case.

So maybe if everything comes up, Dodgers, regardless. It has been somewhat striking that in the wake of that trade, they have been saying more or less what I wrote and said, but without the qualifications that I applied to that, which was basically. anyone could have traded for Terrick Scoople. Dave Roberts said there's nothing that we did that no one else couldn't have done. Right. And Terrick Scoopal said the same. I mean, what else is he going to say? He is a Dodger now.

He has joined the dark side. But he said every team could trade for me. Every team can make that acquisition. I don't really sympathize with people that blame the Dodgers for anything they've done. Obviously, there are layers. There's nuance. Sure. That's not totally true that every team could.

could have done it, and certainly not totally true that every team could have done it without risking as little as the Dodgers did or just with as little cost to them as the Dodgers incurred in making that move. But there is a kernel of truth to that, which I was touching on, which was why that trade frustrated me. Though my frustration was lessened somewhat by subsequent moves that teams that I or we were taking to task made, which we will get it. into. The valuable piece of that, those sort of protestations on the part of the Dodgers, is maybe just

to remind people that, like, it is not to say that every choice is equally good. It is not to say that every team could have fit a deal like this into its team building or roster building strategy and have it work out the same way it does for LA. I do think it's useful to remind people that even if you are presented with a bad choice, you are making a decision. you're making a choice, right? Like, there is not inevitability here. It's not gravity. So I do think that there's some value in that.

I take your point, though, that there's context to these moves that is really important to understanding sort of how practicable they actually are for every team, which is going to vary pretty significantly, even as we noted last time among the clubs that had the sort of firm system depth to do this. Although, and maybe we can use it. this is a jumping off point to the moves that happened yesterday. Yes, please, everyone is begging. Find some sort of segue away from L.A. Yeah, one of the things, and Ben Clemens made a note of this in his sort of winners and losers

piece, which I'll just remind everyone is not meant to be exhaustive. But I certainly was clocking as sort of as we were going through the day, just a lot less prospect hugging in general this year than we often see around the deadline. which isn't to suggest that there weren't some prospects held very tight, particularly around Scoobble. But we saw, at least by our valuations of guys, 10 top 100 guys move in the course of the sort of broadly understood deadline period. And some of those guys were pretty significant. You know, this isn't just like the 99th or in our case the 115th ranked prospect. right? Like we had two guys in the top 30 go. We had four guys in the top 45, five guys in the top 50.

It was a deadline where meaningful minor leakers moved. And, you know, many of those guys were involved in what I would classify as the other big blockbuster of the deadline, which was Boston's acquisition of Adley Rudgeman. So maybe we should start with Adley because that's the other big, big move here. Yeah, I was going to say, there were notable prospects traded, though in most cases, scoble aside, and he's sort of an outlier, it was for guys who have additional years of team control. So it wasn't as if teams collectively decided actually rentals really are worth giving up top prospects. It's just that there were some players who have years still to come with the team that they're currently contracted to. So, yeah, I have sort of five surprises. and Ruchman is one of them. So we can definitely talk about Ruchman in some depth.

And then I have some winners and losers of my own, as I imagine you might. And we can kind of compare notes there. But I think one of my big picture surprises is just that it was a pretty active deadline. And this is not the first time that we and others have said, oh, it's going to be a deadline this year because no one is going to be made. And then it just tends to work out. It just trade deadline life finds away. Just one way or another, I feel like I'm going to try to refrain heading into future deadlines from forecasting a slow deadline.

Because it just rarely does it happen because teams will make moves. And every team made a trade, technically. Some of them barely did the minimum to satisfy the. that condition, which I'm sure we will discuss, but every team technically completed a transaction. And there were some major moves. And I wouldn't say that that many of the players who were moved shocked me because they were all trade candidates to some degree before the deadline. And there were some prominent potential trade candidates who did not move, of course. But there were enough moves made that I felt sated.

I didn't feel like, oh, that's it. And you probably felt busy because you had so many posts and collecting your roundup posts. But yeah, it worked out. It turned out to be pretty intriguing, despite all the obstacles to that being the case. Yeah. It was a really interesting mix. We had a number of teams with, you know, relatively similar records and even in some instances, similar playoff odds that took dramatically different postures toward the deadline in terms

of being in buyer's cell mode. You know, the Blue Jays, who I imagine we'll talk about here are sort of an interesting case of trying to thread a very narrow in-between needle. We shall do both. Yeah. We will sell, but also reinforce. So, you know, we had some of that. I know what you mean about most of the guys who moved being, you know,

they were all mentioned at least somewhere in terms of their potential to be wearing a different club's uniform the next day. I will admit being surprised that Adley moved. I still, I still am a bit surprised that they ended up doing that. I think that's maybe the biggest, oh, wow, okay, you're doing this now for me of the deadline. Second to that maybe being already Marino being like, no, you can move some of these guys, even if they didn't end up moving everyone, right? They kept Netto. They didn't move Detmer's. But they did enough. They moved enough guys that I am willing to in a way that I'm often not with the Angels front office, give them the benefit of the doubt that they truly just were not blown away for guys who are good and still have time

remaining such that they wanted to keep them. So giving a passing grade to the Angels, shocking. You know, here we are. Good job, John's the Lack, I guess. Yeah, I'm trying to think of the most prominent players who were rumored to be dangled who didn't go anywhere. Well, that's quite a way to describe it. I hope that they have found a sturdy platform. Yes. But given that the Nationals did make multiple moves, C.J. Abrams stayed put. I'm not saying he was a super likely guy to go, but he was definitely bandied about.

And they did trade other bats, so it could have happened. And there were various Rangers who were rumored to be maybe on the move or involved in talks at least. And all of them stayed put, which didn't shock me, given where the Rangers are in the standings. And speaking of that, there were a bunch of mariners who were maybe mentioned as trade candidates and maybe mentioned by us last time as trade candidates. Sure, yeah. And they mostly stayed put to, which, again, doesn't totally shock me because the mariners should be. in wind mode so it would have been hard to trade say George Kirby or Randy Rosarina or whomever Emerson Hancock and improve but especially after George Kirby throws a beautiful start

and then it's like I'd like to stay please what are you going to do you're going to trade that guy you're going to trade you're going to trade that guy after he asked to stay I also would like to point out that while our long national Tyler Wade Taylor Ward nightmare has largely resolved. My personal nightmare has only just begun. Because I just want to issue a blanket apology to our listeners. The odds that I say Tyler Wade when talking about Taylor Ward, the right-handed outfielder who the Mariners acquired from the Orioles, we're going to talk about that. It's so funny because it's hard to say that Michael Isis did well at the deadline because that doesn't pay attention to the last, you know, while with the Orioles. The war trade, shocking to me that

the return was as light as it was because there just were not very many right-handed bats at all, let alone outfield bats. And he's a good one. Now, is he a good outfielder? You know, Ben, the less that we say about that, the better. Defense, just a thing the Mariners are punting this year, clearly. They're just like, whatever. Good luck boys. Strike them out. Why don't you? But that's, I bet how Jerry talks to the boys. I'm going to call him Tyler Wade at some point. I'll probably do it on this episode. And I'm sorry. I'm sorry.

There's a long legacy and a rich tradition of doing so, so you will not be the first. I've done it. We've all done it. If you talk about baseball, you've done it. I've documented many of the examples. Right. But I've managed to avoid it.

And then, you know, Tyler Wade, he's just nowhere to be found. He's a free agent this year, you know? He's just, it doesn't, I didn't have to. I mean, he's a free agent now. off the radar, really, so he shouldn't cause as much confusion. What I thought you were going to talk about when it comes to Tyler Taylor-Taylor confusion is that the Rays acquired Tyler Wells from the Orioles, which means that they now

employ both Tyler Wells and Taylor Walls. I mean, that's the nightmare scenario because you've got the Tyler-Taylor-Confusion and the Wells Walls. That's just, oh my goodness. I pity everyone who has to talk about the race. It is a challenge. And look, I'm about to say something. And I am very much no scoping Tyler Wells's politics here. I have no idea. But one way he could clear it up is he could put like a little rainbow patch on his hat. And then we would never mix them up again, would we? Would we? It's possible. We've never had issues with Ray's pitchers and rainbow insignia. I'm just saying that like we to date, to my knowledge, don't, we don't know anything about. him. How nice, you know? And by him, I mean Tyler Wells. Taylor Walls. That's going to be tough.

Dang it. Mindfields everywhere. It's really rough because the race are good. And so it's not like, you know, if he was on the Marlins, it wouldn't matter. We wouldn't have to talk about it very much. I mean, in this episode because they made some moves. But also, I'm thinking of the Marlins. And there's just like, I know the banger of a headline that is sitting in the fan graphs queue right now from Michael bowman and I cannot wait for it to find its way to the world. I, it involves the Marlins. That's why it's relevant to this particular moment. I messaged him in our slack and I said, you genius, you got-ta genius. So I'm, I'm really excited for that to come across the transom for everybody. Wow. Well, by the time this episode is posted, that post will have been published. So go check it out.

Tyler, Taylor, Soldier, Spy, watch your words and your words related. to the takeaway that there was more activity than I had banked on is the teams that made trades, some of them could easily have gone the other way because the thinking behind the idea that there wouldn't be that much activity was that there were so many teams in contention, just a few games out. And it was historic comparing to the same point in previous seasons going back decades. Obviously, conditions have changed. There are more playoff spots and everything.

But nonetheless, there are a lot of teams within striking distance and few that seems to clearly be in the seller lane. And so that's why the conditions seemed to be ripe for not that much to happen. And so one of the conditions that had to be satisfied for things to happen was for some of those teams that absolutely could have convinced themselves that they were contenders to essentially not take themselves out of the race because, they could still wind up winning. Sure. But to at least declare themselves fake contenders, you know, pretenders to the throne, right? Like, yeah, if everything works out, that would be great. But we are actively subtracting from our chances that that will happen.

And it really varies in terms of my willingness to condemn them for making those decisions. So we talked about the Tigers last hand and their decision to trade scoble. and they continued to trade Mize, as you mentioned. So even though they were quite close and had underlying strength that resembled a contending team, they decided to hurt their chances. Then you had the Rangers who did nothing, essentially, and not for lack of trying, because it seemed like they were trying to trade people, like Jacob de Grom, Corey Seeker, etc. Heard a lot more about players they were trying to trade away than players they were.

were trying to trade four. Yeah. The Orioles, obviously, with Ward, Rutchman, Wells, et al, they clearly got worse for 2026. The Marlins, as you mentioned, they were just a game and a half out, and they traded Liam Hicks, so one of the more productive catchers this year. The Cardinals were further out four, I think. Yeah.

They dealt Dustin May, Lars Noopar. So there were a. A bunch of teams that were close that absolutely could have kept one foot in, which I guess the Rangers did. They didn't get actively worse, though if you're treading water and everyone else around you is trying to get better than you effectively are. But there were a bunch of teams. The nationals, we could include them too, right? Sure. I mean, they were certainly within striking distance.

And they made multiple kinds of moves, some that were sort of net neutral maybe for 26. but also some that clearly made them worse. So there were several teams that could have considered themselves contenders, could have been considered contenders by their fans, and they clearly said, we don't buy it. We don't buy ourselves as legitimate contenders. Or we're just willing to accept the risk that we have screwed ourselves out of a playoff spot this year because it'll help us more later.

And there is definitely part of me that wants to do a blanket condemnation of that and just say, hey, if you're three or four out or whatever it is or less with a couple months to go, you just, you owe it to yourselves, you owe it to your players, you owe it to your fan base to stay in and go for it. And maybe you don't push all your prospect chips in, but you at least do whatever you can, make some marginal upgrades, you know, do what the twins. did, for instance, right? I mean, you know, they got a little bit better around the edges, and they didn't get worse. So they're in it. They help their chances, if anything. There are some teams in that category that I can kind of excuse or I see the vision, I suppose, but it's an awkward thing because, historically speaking, it's something that you really would have been criticized for, right? I mean, people still talk about the white flag trade, white socks in 1997 or whatever.

Like you just can get lambasted for pulling the plug too soon because the playoff odds might say whatever and your internal protections might say something. But when the standings say you're that close, you know some of your fans and certainly some of your players, especially if you have exceeded expectations to that point, as many of those teams did, who are just going to feel like you cut the legs out from under them or you pulled the rug out or whatever expression you want to use. I do think that having, like, franchise-specific context there is, is important. I struggle to think of it as something that requires blanket condemnation.

I think there are instances where there can be a good bit of condemning, but it doesn't necessarily strike me as something that, like, applies equally in every instance. And I think part of it depends on like, how have you messaged your understanding of the season, both at the beginning and as it's been going along, with your players? Because I think you can make an argument if you're, you know, the Cardinals. Okay, this is really exciting. And we definitely have exceeded expectation relative to where we thought we would be in this reset or step back or whatever you want to call it. But also, we're a game under 500.

We know that the Brewers and Cubs are going to add. The Pirates have a whole new bullpen now. You know, we've been kind of skidding a little bit of late. We think that we are in positions to have a really good competitive club next year, and we don't want to compromise that, and we think we can go get guys who will help us with that endeavor. I think that it's an approach that you can communicate both to your team and to your fans. Now, they might not buy it, and it might not be viable in every instance.

I think it's a really different argument for, you know, the Cardinals to make than it is necessarily for the Tigers to make, even though the Cardinals have a better record, because, you know, the Tigers are closer and they had better guys to theoretically bolster them. So I think if you're a Tigers fan and you're pissed about the approach they took at the deadline, even though I like the return that they got, I think that's totally justified. And I don't know that I would have made the same decision if I had been them, especially because you know that, like, in a. in all likelihood, the teams ahead of you, maybe you're not quite dialed in on what you think the deadline behavior of a suddenly competitive White Sox Club is going to be. But you kind of know the sorts of moves that the guardians are going to make. They made those exact moves, right? Like they did exactly the kind of move that you expect for a close, talented but not overwhelming

guardians team to make. They made some moves to supplement their outfield with guys who can't really. They got, you know, they got a better first baseman. He's not good at being a first baseman, to be clear, and he'll probably still need a platoon, but he's a better option than Kyle Manzardo, who they optioned, right? Yeah. Honestly, I wouldn't put the Guardians quite in my winner category, but they probably exceeded my expectations because we... For what they did?

Yeah. We grade the Guardians on such a curve, which is frustrating because they're often a team that should, absolutely be acquiring people and upgrading. They're so often just, guys, you're one good outfielder away. Just go get one for once. I want to be clear, they're often like two good outfielder's away, but I take your point. Maybe a whole outfield, but at least go get one, it would help a lot. And they're always sort of in that place on the wind curve where a marginal upgrade

would be really beneficial. And there are always places where they could easily upgrade. So it's very frustrating. And it's not like they're running high pay. rolls and they always theoretically should have some room to add. But the bar is so low because they just have no history of making moves like that, really ever at the deadline or over the winter for that matter. And as good as they are at development, they can't fill all the holes that way. And so I sort of, my baseline expectation for them is that they're just not going to do anything

and I'm just going to throw up my hands and say, well, that was a waste. But this time, they did some stuff. They traded for Foster Griffin. They traded for Joe Adel. They traded for Nathaniel Lowe. It's not overwhelming or anything. There are things that they could have done that would have made a bigger impact. It's just that the bar is in the basement, basically for how much I expect them to bolster that roster via transactions from outside players. So well done by Guardian standards. Sure. I didn't dislike their deadline necessarily. And I think that their moves are sensical, you know, they are aware of the curse that lays upon their outfield. So maybe they don't want to put good guys out there because what good is that going to do?

I mean, no offense to Chase the Lawder, who is legitimately talented. But my point is, from the perspective of the Tigers, you probably are able to dial in how much activity there's going to be ahead of you. You had an opportunity to say, you know what, flags do fly forever. Let's try. And they decided to retool for next year. I think the tigers are going to be a going concern in 2027 from a playoff perspective. I also think that, you know, they had an opportunity to really put their foot on the gas and they opted not to. And then there were clubs that like, let's decide what order we want to talk about these things in because I don't want to lose track of them.

We obviously have to talk about Adley and the Orioles. We have to talk about what the Phillies are doing because it feels like a sci-op. Yeah. Those are two of my surprises. One is certainly the Adley deal. And another, the fifth one I was going to get to is that Bryce Harper is an outfielder again. Yeah. I know he had volunteered and said he was willing to do that.

It almost feels to me with this kind of cold war of words that Harper and Dave Dombrovsky have going here, that Dombrovsky was just like calling him on that. It's just like, oh, you're so willing to play outfield. to enable me to make moves. Okay, go do it then. I'm going to hold you to that. But yeah, that was a weird one. Like getting Louisa Rise,

I'm never going to complain about. But the fact that it just totally scrambles their defensive alignment, didn't see that coming. They are now just like worse everywhere. Right? And I like the lineup edition of Louisa Rise. Yeah.

I think that makes a ton of sense for them. I think they can have a really fun, consistent contact on base with speed and power behind him in Tray Turner, depending on how they line up their lineup, although they might just keep batting for a leadoff. But here are the, here are the ways I'm confused. Okay. Let's walk through the ways I'm confused. First of all, Clemens made this point in his reaction to the whole thing too. Just the injury risk increased to Herbert alone makes this seem like a really bad idea to me. So there's that. All of this is really pivoting around the fact that they have to keep trade turners bat in the lineup and he's a bad

shortstop but they don't have anyone to replace him we talked about this last time right like aiden miller is hurt and so they can't call him up he also is hurt so they couldn't really trade him in a way that was going to make that better they don't want to kick turner out to the outfield and they can't do it anyway because they don't have an internal replacement at shortstop okay well one option would be kick him out to the outfield trade for just a glove guy Also, why are we so insistent on keeping Alec Bohm in the freaking lineup? I, look, I know that it has been a land of contrasts with Alec Baum over the years. And I appreciate that Alec Baum has some, like, off-field personal stuff that might be impacting his performance to the plate.

I don't know. I have never had to sue my parents for fraud. Okay. I don't want to make light of that. But also, this man, Ben, this man has a career 100 WRC plus. He is hitting 226, 283, 362. He has a 76 WRC plus this year. He is below replacement level.

He is underwater. Just bench him. What's happening? What is Ben? I don't, now, part of me, the mean-spirited part of my personality is like, well, I can't wait to watch this tire-fire unfold. But there are simply too many Phillies fans in my life and in my timeline from me to think that's going to be fun for more than exactly one day.

Because everyone on sports blues guy is a Phillies fan. It's crazy. I mean, not all of them, but like a lot. There are so many. So what they are proposing to do is they are proposing to put Bryce Harper in the outfield, arise at second, boom at first, and then start at third. But why are you doing that to keep at what? It's quite elaborate.

I understand. Yeah. And Bryce Harper hasn't regularly played right field since in years. In 2021? It's been five years, right? It's shocking to me. He wasn't a great defensive outfielder then. No.

So now. It's shocking to me. It is shocking to me that he even still has the glove. What are we? Yeah, it's weird. And I hope that Arise will maintain his defensive performance, even though he will be separated from Ron Washington. I believe that he can. So that'll help.

cover up the cracks a little and paper over some of the defensive flaws. But yeah, it's going to get weird. And this musical chairs to what end, I wonder. And I guess the best you can say is that Bryce Harper will probably not be the worst defensive right fielder the Phillies have played lately, which is a pretty low bar. Again, the bars in the basement. And it probably won't be the worst defensive team that the Phillies have fielded. but yeah, it's definitely going to get weird. If only Mike Trout had said, hey, Ardy, hey, hey, J-Mo, send me to Philly.

Just would have been a perfect fit. This all could have been avoided. It would have been a perfect fit. You'd still have the problem of the fact that Trey Turner doesn't know how to be a shortstop anymore. I mean, it is like, it's not good out there. It's not good. You know, here I am. I'm like, oh, the Mariners are just punting on.

defense and the Phillies are like, hold my beer, man. Like, what, I'm so, for Alec Bome, for Alec Bome, why? I mean, it's not really pivoting around Alec Bome. As I mentioned, I think that the real, the real original sin here is like the turner of it all and not being able to sort that out. But like, this man is a free agent after this year. What are you doing? What does it matter? Yeah. Ben. If Miller and Crawford had been better for them, that would have helped a lot of lot or healthy or both. But as it is. As I mentioned, like that was, you know, the, the, I'm hardly breaking news here, right?

Like, everyone who follows the Philly's Nosis, the long-term trajectory for Trey Turner was always, well, we're going to kick him out to center field. Right. And they might not have said that, but everyone understood that as like the, the reality of the back half of his contract. Because he was never good, he's not a good shortstop. Even when he was a better shortstop than this, he was in a good shortstop. So it's like, oh, he's like, oh.

okay, you're going to kick him out to center, fine. But you have to have a healthy and productive Aiden Miller in order to do that. And they just, they don't. Like they, you don't want to hear radio frequency ablation of the facet joints. You don't want to hear that about a 22 year old. If you said Meg needs that procedure, I'd be like, yeah, probably like a couple years ago. Get on it. Let's, let's see what.

You know what? I, the hospital bed thing, where they like prop you, that was real murder on my lower back in the, in the colonoscopy sense. I didn't care for that at all. It really worked me a little bit, you know, in a way that I was like, oh, surely it was the colon. No, I think it was that hospital bed. Anyway.

It's supposed to be first, do no harm. So the Phillies, I don't know what the deal is and what the long-term plan will be. I don't think the short-term plan is good either. Yeah. Well, it will be interesting, and the Phillies are always that at the very least. Yeah. But, yeah, that was one of my surprises. But to go back to Adley and teams that decided to sell kind of controversially because the Orioles fit into both of those categories, it puts the leaders in an awkward position of trying to have it both ways to say, well, we made this move with the future in mind.

but we still believe in our guys and we still think we've got a good team here and we can still make a run and everything. And maybe they believe that on some level. And again, there is some truth to it. It's such a jumble that all the teams are so clustered together that absolutely a team could, on paper, get worse and then play better and sneak in. It could happen. But I feel like you're just not in a position to send that message if you are the person

who punted is perhaps too strong, but certainly significantly reduced your odds, because I don't think anyone in the clubhouse wants to hear that, right? Like, no one in the clubhouse wants to hear, oh, we believe in you when you have made a move that signals the opposite. It's just actions speak louder than words. And I don't know that the fan base wants to hear that

or finds that mollifying either, because, again, you can't sort of do one thing and then tell people another. And so I understand what the nationals did, but Paul Toboni is in a difficult spot when it comes to the PR approach. And he had this long comment about this. And he talked about how painful it is and how he believes in this team and thinks they're still good enough, but also understands that it's hard to say that when you've done this. And he had this elaborate metaphor about how maybe the foundation isn't.

fully firm yet and if they try to sort of skip ahead to contention, maybe the flaws in the foundation will be exposed. And I get, what are you saying? I didn't expect the nationals to be this good or this close to contention this year. And yeah, that club isn't fully baked and maybe it would be wrong to commit to this year and you cost yourself really having a core that comes together for the next several years. Then again, the Orioles are a good illustration, of the fact that you can't take anything for granted and you can't count on a core that seems like it's set up

for the next several years actually panning out that way. And Michael Ius had some of the same messaging after the Adley trade. I assume that owner David Rubinstein is not going to be out here saying he still thinks this team can win seven out of ten the rest of the way

and that's all they need to do to make the playoffs. But Elias did say, we're going to be playing for the postseason the rest of the way. Well, yeah, I mean, technically, sure. The reality is that our record and the odds that come with that record were not strong enough for me to go into the deadline with 2026 as the sole focus. Fair enough, we had to start looking at future years and take those into account as we assessed moves, but we did not dismantle the team.

I guess hang the banner, right? We did not dismantle the team. Small victories. We still have a very good team. Debatable, right? So it puts you in a pretty tough spot. Obviously, you don't want to say, like, we have no chance and our remaining roster sucks, but also you can't convincingly make the case that you buy it because your actions demonstrate otherwise. The Adley trade, I know that this was rumored.

I know that it makes a certain sort of sense. I wouldn't even call the Orioles a trade deadline loser because that would be too specific. That would be too narrow a description of the ways in which they're losers. They're losers in a bigger, broader sense than just trade deadline losers. I don't want to limit them to that. They're holistic losers. And if you just take the trade deadline in isolation and say, well, if you decide to deal Adley and Wells and Ward, they did okay, I guess, right? at least all in all.

I mean, they got a pretty good haul for Adley at least, right? They got a great hall for Adley. I think it is how it washes over fans is going to, well, it's going to vary within the fan base even. And I don't mean to say that there aren't Nationals fans, for instance, who are frustrated by the futility of the team since the World Series win, who don't care that Toboni and Coe is like a new administration and that it is a new administration and that it is going to take them time to sort of shape the roster in a way that they think is good and that there's all this promise. And, you know, I think if you're a nationals fan and you're inclined to be optimistic about the team, there's a lot for you to reasonably sort of hang your hat on.

And you have a new voice, right? You have a new approach to the club. Again, that doesn't mean that there aren't going to be Nats fans that are like, ugh, I'm exhausted by you guys. Call me in a couple years when you're ready to actually try to go win this thing. Yeah, because it's been so long for them now, and the decline from the World Series was so precipitous, and they've been in future-oriented mode for a long enough now that starts to wear thin. Yes, and so, you know, I want to acknowledge that. But also, I think that there are a number, there are a fair number of Nats fans who are, like, pretty happy with how this group is trying to shape and redirect to the franchise. And I think that, you know, a lot of the things that they're doing are going to take time to bear fruit. but what evidence we have seems to be pretty positive, right?

So there is an optimistic gloss that you can put on the direction of the franchise, even if there are individual traits that sting. It's just a fundamentally different conversation if you're Michael Elias, because it's really hard to avoid looking like the guy in the hot dog costume asking who did this, right? We're all looking for the guy who did this. It's like, I don't know, Mike, I think that's you. he's been in position with the team long enough that for him to go into,

I don't think that what they're doing is a rebuild. I wouldn't characterize it that way, but they are engaged in at least a pretty dramatic retooling for right now. And the drama of it being centered around Rutchman, right? That's what makes it high drama is like he was the first guy. He was the first guy who they brought in and it was like, okay, here we are. Like, we did play back.

Adley for Adley, and now we have him, and he's great, and it's so exciting, and we're going to bring up all these other talented and distinguishable in the face whites, and they're all play really well together, and you're going to go win a World Series, and they won 100 games, and then, you know, you have these unceremonious dismissals from the postseason, the pitching never comes together in the way that you need it to. I don't know what to make of Elias as, like, like a baseball thinker at this point. It doesn't feel like there has been an evolution in his approach to roster building. And it doesn't really seem like there's been a ton of innovation within that organization, which doesn't say that they're like fuddy dutties or that they're

anti-analytics or anything like that. But I feel like they're getting passed by. And some of that might be that, you know, Elias has a very snapshot in time, Astros' perspective on how to build a team. And some of those methods are still effective. And some of them aren't. And I don't know that he's been able to really bob and weave all that well. There are baseball leaders who I think are genuinely hamstrung by their ownership when it comes to spending money, who if they were given more payroll room, would be excited to deploy it. I think that Michael I said, has like a fundamental allergy to trying to use the money to the extent that you would expect him to be able to, given the change in their ownership situation, which again, like, they did

spend some money. They spent it weirdly. They spent their, they like shot their shot on Pete Alonzo. That's weird. Yeah. That's weird given their needs. We know that he has a demonstrated capacity to assemble a strong collection of prospects, whether from other organizations, drafting, developing.

them. Sure. And so maybe he's doing that again now with this ad lead deal. And that's nice, but every other skill that you want a pobo to possess, he has not demonstrated. So whether that is spending adequately or intelligently to supplement your homegrown core or evaluating your own guys to know which ones to keep and which ones to trade and when to do that, he has not done those things as of yet. And I don't want to sound like an Elias truth or an Orioles truther, but also, you know, is it really that hard to get Adley Rutchman and Gunner Henderson right? You know, what I mean? Like, and that isn't say that they haven't had developmental successes and, you know, you got to, you got to do it across the board. They have a very exciting system now. But I think

he, at the very best, gets an incomplete in terms of his grade to be able to. able to actualize those guys. So evaluating this trade in isolation is to miss important context and nuance. When the deal came across the transom, like, they got good return here on the prospect side. I'm like, Carlos Neuze is an interesting big league piece for them, right? So it's not like there was nothing here. They got a global top 30 prospects. They got guys who are interesting and might continue to move up. Like, they got two top 100 guys and another guy that, the prospect team is excited about and think has potential here. So it's not like they didn't do well, but it's like at a certain point, you need to show that bringing Anthony Eisen in is going to move

the needle for you, right? You need to show that you know how to help actualize Kason Wetherstone. I don't know that you know how to do that, Mike. And if you're going to trade the guy who was the face of the rebuild, it would be nice to be able to reassure your fans that you do, especially if you're trading him in division. And I know that Adley, you know, he's had his ups and downs lately. He's on the injured list right now. He fills a major need for the Red Sox. And I'm not even necessarily opposed to like indivision trades, but I think you really got to freaking nail him because they are, your fans are going to remember, and here I will swear intentionally, they're going to remember that shit forever. If Adley Rutchman,

hits a major home run for the Red Sox in the postseason, the good people of Baltimore will be within their rights to light something on fire. I mean, like, it's just, this is how these things go. So I don't think that this team is doomed to, as I said, doomed to rebuild. I think that there's a good case to be made, that they'll be competitive again in 2027,

particularly if they make other moves, if some of their guys who are in the high minors are sort of major league ready. Like there's interesting grist for the mill here, but I don't know that I have confidence in Elias's track record or ability to really make what he can of this group. And I think that I think Orioles fans are within their rights to say, like, are you the right person to be doing this still?

And if the answer to that is no, right? And I don't know how Do you ever Runestein feels about Michaelis? Like, I don't know what his, you know, assessment of him is at this point. The worst case scenario in a weird way for the Orioles would be, and I don't know that this is likely to happen, would be for them, would be for Roonson to decide at the end of the year that he's done with Elias. And then you let that guy trade Adley Ruchman? Yeah. Well, it's interesting actually. So, so their system, as you said, much improved, they have vaulted to second on the Fangraph's farm rankings behind the race. Yeah, it's a good, it's a really good farm. And I know Orioles fans.

are sort of sick of hearing about how great the prospects are at some point you need to win. Now, those things aren't mutually exclusive. Obviously, get you a pobo who can do both, preferably, if you can maintain a strong system and also win and be competitive, like the Dodgers or other teams, for that matter. I mean, the top eight teams or the top, I don't know, nine teams on the Fancraft's Farm rankings right now are all teams that are at least close to contention. Yeah. So they have managed to have a credible Major League roster and also still have some prospects on the way.

In some cases, maybe some of those guys haven't graduated from being prospect eligible. Yeah, although I will point out that most of the big guys who were graduating this year not on their foreclos anymore. Yeah. So that's not bad. It's not pure prospect hugging necessarily, but though he has been guilty of and accused of that in the past. But in a way, and again, in a very narrow sense, I applaud him almost for making the move because there is that moral hazard aspect to things. Because as you said, he's on pretty thin ice right now. And so if the Orioles miss the playoffs, can he convince Rubenstein that he's the guy to keep leading them if they miss the playoffs again?

Sometimes if you're Scott Harris, maybe you can say, okay, I'm trading scuba, I'm trading Mize, et cetera. like, all right, I'm sort of shifting the timeline a little, and now you can focus on what the tigers do the next few years, and maybe that actually helps him. It's the path of least resistance to say, ah, we'll just reset and sell and we'll get them next year. But Elias may not have a next year or many more years. And so to save his job, he could have said,

no, I'm buying, I'm going for it, because my leash is pretty short right now, and I don't know if I'm going to be given the grace to say, stay if this team doesn't make the playoffs pretty darn soon. And so if I get some prospects, but they're not ready right now or next year, then that might not help me. That'll help my successor. So credit to him, despite that, I suppose, for doing what he evidently thought was best for the organization. And also, if he did think that trading Adley was the right thing to do, provided he got an appropriate prospect package

and he thought that the best offer was from Boston, which I could certainly believe, given the Red Sox need for a catcher and the guys they gave them. Yeah. Then I credit him for ignoring the taboo against trading within your division because I do think that's a bit overblown. And a lot of it is the kind of cover your ass, this is going to look bad for me.

Obviously, yeah, it'll hurt the Orioles more directly, if Adley is good for a division rival. But overall, I think probably intra-division trade should happen more often than they do. Yeah. But, you know, if you're going purely by the expected value for your team, even factoring in the head-to-head competition aspect. But teams don't like to do it, especially if you're giving away someone who is seen as a franchise cornerstone to a direct rival, that's going to come back to bite you if he's good for them.

So bold, right? Bold strategy. We'll see if it works out for them. Sure. This is pretty devastating, though, for Orioles fans. Yeah. Not to speak for them. But even if the writing was on the wall, because this, it's not an unprecedented trade,

but there are a few precedents for a trade like this. And I asked Michael Mountain, who is an Orioles fan, so condolences to him, about this. Because I was trying to come up with comps for players who were as good and as productive early on for a team that traded them. as quickly as the Orioles have because he's still in his fifth season and this was a guy who was a, depending on which were you

use, of four to six-ish win player from the get-go. I mean, even in his partial first season, he was fantastic and then he was still like a five-ish win player the next season. So to come out of the gate like that and then all the other

baggage that was associated with him are the hopes and aspirations as you said badly for Adley and number one overall pick and the fact that when they got him, it just seemed like we found our guy and he can do it all and he can hit and he can field and he's a leader and we're going to build around him. I saw Andy Koska of the Baltimore banner

putting a message out to solicit responses from Orioles fans who named their kid indoor pet after Adly. I'm sure he's going to get some responses. So brace yourself. for a tearjerker of a story, Orioles fans, hopefully more pets than kids. And maybe you like the name anyway. Maybe it reminds you of your kid and not Adley Regiment.

I think the name Adley is nice. It's a fine name. Yeah. It's a nice name. I can't imagine there are very many Adleys. Yeah. So there are only a few players or hitters at least who fit this description. There are four, according to Michael's querying,

position players in the integration era. who were dealt with fewer than five years of service away from the club with whom they made their Major League debut, having been as productive prior to that as Adley Rushman was in Baltimore. So you have Fred McGriff, who put up 19.7 fan grafts wore in four years of service plus a cup of coffee

with the Blue Jays who traded him in the 1990 offseason for Roberto Alamar. You had Miguel Cabrera, sort of similar when he went from Miami to Detroit. And again, not that that makes it better, but it's the Marlins. They do that, you know. Right. It's a little different when the Orioles do it.

And then pre-free agency, but Rocky Calvito, of course, 18.4 fan graphs were in four full seasons with Cleveland when they traded him to the Tigers before the 1960 season. And that's a notorious, cursed trades, even if he didn't turn out to be the Hall of Famer that McGriff and Cabrera did. And then Mark Tashara, who was traded with a year and a half of team control left at the deadline in 2007, one of the Tashara trades. And that brought back a big prospect package too, but he had 17.6 fan graphs were with the club to that point. Adley is at 17.3 with the Orioles. So that's it. It's just really hard to find examples of someone who was that productive early on and then were out there welcome or for whatever reason. got dealt by the same team that quickly.

It just doesn't happen because usually you get a guy like that. You're at least going to keep him until free agency or when he's on the verge of free agency a la mukie bets, right? Or, you know, maybe you've, oh, and Juan Soto, right, he was traded at the deadline in his fifth season also. So, you know, but with Soto, like, there had been a big public extension offer. Ruchman, it's not clear whether there was an actual offer. like they'd had conversations, but terms hadn't really been reported.

So it's weird. And I get it because Adley has had a weird career and I don't know what to make of him. So yes, you can blame the Orioles and Elias for being in this position. It's also somewhat on Adley for not sustaining that early promise. And it's been mystifying to me and to many his decline since then and going from being an absolute superstar to a pretty good. player to a not very good player back to being okay again. You know, he's been, he started hot this year, but he has cooled off considerably since then. And now he's hurt.

And has been hurt. So I don't actually know what Boston's getting here. I mean, it's a pretty bold move by Craig Breslo, too. Sure is. Because like the Red Sox definitely needed catching help, but will he be better enough than the guys they had to justify. by the prospects they gave up. Again, kudos to him for really going for it. You certainly can't accuse him of being overly conservative or cautious or anything.

But I have no idea what they're going to get out of Adley. I just, I'm definitely not confident that he's back to being early career Adley. And I'm not totally confident that he's going to be better than, say, 2025 Adley or 2024, Adley, at least. So I have no idea. So it's certainly that helps explain why this anomalous move was made because he's had an anomalous career path to this point. But man, if you had told me after 2023 that Adley Rutchman would be traded in less than three years, you would have had a hard time convincing me that there was any way that would happen. You bring up a good point about like there is risk going the other direction here, right? and it does seem like Breslow has sort of a,

he is not a stranger to being sort of outside the popular consensus in terms of the valuations he puts on deals. That can be good if you're right. You know, and it can really come back to bite you, although I think they have a deep enough system that even with the guys they gave up, you know, it seemed justifiable. It's like, this is, you made these moves,

you spent this money on this pitching, you have an obvious need, you get him for one more year. And the for one more year part does, I think, if we want to be fair to Elias, put important context here, because if he views this as sort of the make or break point

for that decision, and they aren't, you know, their internal numbers tell them they're not going to contend this year, which I think they're not getting content. I don't need any numbers about that. You're not getting this prospect return for him a year from now, right?

you know, we saw what the best guy, the best guy at his position just got for a rental. And it was more than we expected, again, depending how you feel about River Ryan. So you are maximizing what you're getting for Adley. And especially with a team, like you said, that is in this position of like, wow, we have a real demonstrated need. We have a super deep farm system. We won 15 games in a row. Let's ride. You know, there is a, I don't know.

want to say that Craig Breslo is like the new AJ Preller, which also like at some point, Sandio, what are you doing over there, man? But, you know, he, I think that there was like a demonstrated aggression on the part of Breslo and to some, I don't want to say to take advantage necessarily because I don't, I think, you know, I'm sure Craig Breslo was clear right about what he was doing. But I think that that Elias was able to leverage that into a really good return. Good for you. But again, you know, I think I don't know how Orioles fans feel about Gunner Henderson right now because obviously his season has been very disappointing. But, you know, this kind of move has ripple effects beyond just the trade itself, right?

Like the odds that you were going to extend Gunner before were low. I feel like they have to be subterranean now, right? We already knew that he didn't like the idea of an extension based on how the front office was conducting. itself. So you, you put yourself in a spot where, like you said, sort of at the top of the episode, you have to justify yourself to not just your fans, but to your clubhouse. And you just traded their field marshal. So. Yeah, you have to zoom out and pull back a bit to take in how bonkers it is that that trade happens. Because with that larger context, it's, it's just pretty jaw-dropping. And I know that they have Basayo and they extended him and they hope that,

he can be their catcher of the future and that he can catch well enough to do that. But still, it's just quite a turn for this team to take. Now, my other surprise was the other ALE's team or one of the others. There are four others, but one of them is the Blue Jays. And they really defy categorization and classification. and it's hard for me to quite call them a winner or a loser. I would probably lean more toward the latter just because I can't quite figure out what they were up to. But boy, they were up to a lot because they trade Gossmann.

They trade Dalton Varsho, but they acquired Jose Soriano and Josh Smith. They also acquired James and Tyone, who if the Cubs are jettison. a pitcher, then that does not portend anything good for that pitcher. And they also traded Jeff Hoffman. And so they're trying to sort of set up their rotation for next year, I guess, and get some of that work done. And we've seen a lot of teams be coming and going at the same time. And it is possible to execute that approach. But it is tough to do both of those things. And they traded Arjun Namala, who's, a really good prospect. Yeah.

So it's, and I get that they got Soriano and he's under team control and everything, but that's a tough player to surrender. So I don't know. It's tough to pull off what they were attempting to do here. And I'm not sure that they did. Yeah, I agree. I wonder if they would have been better. I understand the logic that you, you know, you can make trades for now and you can make trades for later

and that you can be doing both. you know, you can be parallel pathing those two timelines. Namala is not without his risks as a hitter, right? And you just, I never want any prospect I like to get traded to the angels. Because it's just like, are the angels going to be able to help him actualize? I mean, come on, man. I'm so down on them, but they're just, they've never given me a reason to think that they're good. So why would I, why would I think that they're good?

You know, why would I think that they're good at this? They're not good at this. That's pretty good. I don't know if that's because of the angels, but at least there's precedent for the angels promoting a pretty good shortstop. It could happen. Maybe lightning will strike twice. Maybe they will be able to help Arjun Damala curb his swing and mess

and answer that question all up and down the ladder, because that's what he's going to have to do. Maybe they'll be able to help him maintain his strength gains. Everyone who goes through the Blue J system comes out like super swole. It's amazing. Their strength and conditioning is out of control. Seriously, I'm not doing a bit like this this young man was like 170 pounds when he was drafted, and that's not his weight anymore.

But it does kind of feel like they didn't get a lot better for 2027. And maybe, again, like maybe that's an unrealistic expectation. You know what? You know what I heard the other day? And now I'm going to pull up his splits to make sure that this hasn't changed in the couple of days since I've heard it. Ben, did you know that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has not hit one at home this year? I did know that. Yes. He hasn't hit a while.

Yeah. First of all, he hasn't hit very many home runs, period. So like this is the bigger concern is the number six probably. But not a single one at home. They've all come on the road. I think it was it was Vlad and Chandler Simpson among players with that much playing time. Yeah, those are the same. Yeah, I know.

those players should not be really on any kind of splits list. That's not good. It's not great, you know. Chandler Simpson, he's doing some things that Flatt is not doing, at least. I'm not saying he's any great shakes either. But Chandler Simpson, I understand. But when Flad's not doing that, that is not at all how he drew it up. Not everything they did was bad.

They got some interesting guys back. But yeah, it does feel like they kind of, in, their effort to both come and go, they got kind of caught in between a little bit. Simpson, by the way, has not hit any home runs in his two seasons thus far. Right. But that isn't surprising. Those guys should not be mentioned in the same breath unless it's to say that they're at opposite ends of the spectrum or something power-wise.

So very weird. Very weird. Lots of strange, frustrating, disappointing aspects to this Blue Jay season. and they were far enough away that I would not fault them for subtracting or selling. But yeah, I'm not sure exactly what was happening. They were definitely doing a lot. It was just a lot of tap dancing, but to what end? It did make me think the fact that the angels did make some moves that they traded Adele and Soriano and Zephyrjan.

The fact that they got Namala made me think, well, doesn't that make Netto more expendable in theory. And it does bode well, I think, for Namala, given that the contact is the concern, that he seems to have improved that as he has climbed the ladder. So that's good, right? He started super young, but he was striking

out way more in A ball than he is in double A now, right? So that's the progression you want to see, I would say. So I do kind of wish that given that the angels did decide that they were going to sell some people, or that Moseilac persuaded

Moreno to let him do that. Yeah, I know. Blanket apology for referring to the sale of human beings. It's trade deadline convention. You know what I mean. No, James Wood is hurt. No. How hurt.

In what way? Mild oblique strain. Well, could be worse, but could be a more than mild oblique strain. But still, that stinks because they just lost a lot of offense on purpose. Anyway, and, you know, speaking of James Wood, I mentioned the precedents for dealing Ruchman and that Soto was one of them. Obviously, that's the best case scenario that you get a Soto-level hall. You can't count on that happening for the Orioles, but fingers crossed for them, I suppose. But given that the angels decided to do as much as they did, I do wish they had gone whole hog.

and I used that term advisedly because we've talked about hogs in other contexts in baseball this year. It was not hog out, as Mike Kruko said. And no trow was being dropped. But I wish that they had said, well, we might as well go all in then if we're going to do it

because, hey, we just got a great shortstop prospect that makes Neto more expendable. And if we're trading Soriano, why not deal debtors too? because he's got to have even more value. And just why keep anyone? I understand that you have to find the right trade partner and there has to be the right offer

and easier said than done to trade several guys. Maybe it's a logistical issue at a certain point. But you don't have to wait until the last day or two before the deadline, even though everyone does. So I do kind of wish that they had just said, let's go full rebuild. And you'd think that they would be in a position to because if you think, as Artie Moreno seems to, that Angels fans aren't primarily motivated

by winning, then they should be less dissuaded from doing so. Because if you think that Angels fans will be more tolerant of losing than the typical fan base, or that you're just going to draw people who are going to Disney regardless, then why not, right? It's not like you were offering any substantial hope or great watchability to those fans as it is. So I do wish that they had done more. But again, we grade the angels on the curve and they did something. So that's good. That's a win, even if I can't quite call themselves a winner.

As you said, passing grade, which is an improvement. Yeah, like I said, they did enough where if you told me that they tried to do more and they just couldn't find the right fit and they didn't want to like panic sell read Detmer's that that I would believe it, which is, it's an improvement. And they're in this weird spot with, you know, Moseilac being interim or whatever. Although if you're going to tear it all down, the cynical thing to do is to make him responsible for it and then just hand him at the end of the year. Exactly. Built in scapecoat. Perfect. Yeah. All right. So winners that we haven't talked about

at length, obviously, I would put the Dodgers on that list inevitably. They got Terrick's scoble. They didn't give up anything that should come back to bite them in the short term, or ever for that matter. So putting aside Bubich and reacquiring a couple of catchers, because Dalton rushing is hurt to Ann Will Smith's stories. They just, they got scoble. They didn't have to give up any of their top prospects. They're a winner. Sorry, everyone. Also, though, one of the teams that I was somewhat exercised about not trading for scoble was the Chicago Cubs. and I will moderate that language somewhat because, though I still think they would have been better off with Derek Scouple,

I know bold, controversial of me. They did manage to acquire about half a pitching staff eventually. So given that they lost most of a pitching staff to injury, they had a lot of work to do, and they did it. In addition to having added David Peterson previously, they got Kevin Gosman, they got Clay Holmes, they got Braxton Garrett, they picked up Zephyr-John. That's a lot.

They did a lot. Now, they still lack a top of the rotation guy, really, even though they have some guys coming back. And maybe Gosman can be that. Maybe Cabrera can be that. Maybe Imanaga could be that. They have candidates to be that. But obviously, they don't have a sort of slam dunk a ace as Scoobel would have been. So it might have been nice.

But when you are that thin on. pitching, you sort of settle for bulk and average and credible with maybe some upside. And so I thought they did pretty well to turn what was a really glaring weakness into, well, less than that at the very least. I agree. I think that they are on much sure footing than they were previously. They can't compete, I think even with the rotation that's immediately ahead of them in their division standings. But a of that's tied up in Mizorowski. So I thought that they did pretty well. And they didn't, they, they gave up, you know, some prospects, but they didn't like, you know, bankrupt the farm to do what they did. Yeah, I liked it. And now I need them to put out a video of Kevin Gassman being like,

come to our Tian, we're going to win the Central. He just looks like at the Rebus skittier. I'm never going to be tired of pointing this out. He could cut his hair and I'd still say it. Yeah. I would also, sticking with the NL Central, I'd call the Pirates a winner because I think they did exactly what they had to do. Yeah. And we talked about this last time when they had acquired Camille Deval and we said, well, they have more to do. They need to get many more relievers than that. But it's a start. And they did. They did exactly that. They got Kirby Yates. They got Lake Bacher. And they got Luke Weaver. Yeah. who was probably the best reliever acquired at the deadline, maybe? I think I would. I'm raising my intonation higher and higher.

That's meant to denote your confidence in the statement, right? That's to really like, nail it. I would agree with that, especially since Mason Miller stayed put. Right, exactly. So they had one obvious weakness, and they did about as much as you can do at one deadline to address it. So good for them. I don't know if it'll be enough, but mission accomplished, I think. Yeah.

And they did a lot of work over the offseason, which has worked out better than I expected it to, to put them in position where they really just had to polish off that one weakness and put themselves in position to win. So good on them. Yeah. Also, speaking of Miller not moving, I do have to hand it to AJ Preller to some extent because he just always pulls prospects out of a hat. I don't know where he gets them, but he always has more.

It's always the cupboard is bare. He can't possibly do it again. And it's not like total blue chippers or something he dealt or acquired. And they're now dead last by a lot in the Fancraft's Farm System rankings. Not that they ranked really highly before, but they managed to pick up a couple solid starters. Yeah, they got Casey Wyes. They got Casey Mize. That's, you know, that's some solid work.

Casey Mize and Robbie Ray, right? I mean, that's not bad because they desperately needed starting pitching, too. And also the Padres were one of those teams that could have gone either way and could have said, oh, a lot has gone wrong for us and we're kind of in it, but eh, not really. Yeah. And they didn't. And some of their hitters who started so slow have heated up of late, Tatis and Merrill and Machado. And so they really needed pitching.

And there was just question, even though Prahrler has done it time and time again, despite the doubts that he just always manages to make a move or multiple moves, he did it again. So there are teams that had more prospects that just sort of sat on their hands and you know he's never going to do it unless he is handcuffed to his chair. So I had to give some kudos. I don't think they, like, upgraded the most of any team. But given the constraints, given the other ways they could have gone, I sort of celebrate that. that Preller to the last true to himself. Yeah, I don't know if I think that it really is going to change their forecast for this year very much. Mize is obviously not a long-term piece for them because he's a free agent come this off season.

A fact that I have always remembered on this podcast and never had to re-record. They didn't give up a ton because they didn't very much to get up. Right. Yes, it might as well just scrape the bottom of the barrel that you have already poured out. And that's another one where how long can Preller possibly hold on to that position if the Padres don't make the playoffs. So maybe it behooved him to do this with new ownership and everything. But still, I say you might as well. It's like you're too far gone to really rebuild at this point.

If anyone does, it's probably not going to be Preller. And you might as well make one more run. I would also, I don't know if I'd quite put them in the winner category, but I think, thought the Yankees did decent work here. Did they? They barely did anything. Yeah, I would not call them a winner because they could have done more. So much of their fortunes are just going to come down to, is there and Judge healthy.

Right. So they're kind of in a tough spot there. And definitely they could have, I mean, they could have used Adley Rushman. You know, there were other positions that they could have upgraded more. But I thought getting Luis Garcia Jr. was. was nifty work and they can platoon him, make him part of the platoon at first with Goldschmidt, who has cooled off. And then adding Elliot Ramos. It's not flashy. It's not splashy.

And that's why I wouldn't put them fully in the winner category. But I would say that they made themselves better. And also they're a pretty decent team to begin with. And probably the most heartening move that they made at the deadline for Yan. Yankees fans was demoting Anthony Volpe and promoting George Lampart Jr. Yeah. The top prospect in that organization, whom I mentioned, they did not want to part with for Terrick Scouble.

And if you're not going to part with your top prospect, then it's pretty nice to just call him up the next day and say, hey, here's what we retain. So he's going to play for us right now. I don't know if he'll be great right away. He's been pretty productive in the miners and has been hitting well of late and is a really impressive prospect. So maybe. But yeah, it's kind of nice when,

okay, if you don't deal the top prospect, you could have dealt for some established player, then just call him up immediately and say, hey, here's why we didn't deal him. Now you get to enjoy him. They're in a weird spot because their rotation they don't have to worry about, right?

They have the pitching that they need. They didn't address the catching position, which was a glaring hole. So like that isn't great. I don't know what appetite Baltimore would have had trading adly to them. I don't know if they were even in that market or trying to be. I'm a little surprised that they didn't manage to turn around sort of a more mid-tier option.

Like, why didn't they trade for Liam Hicks? You know, why didn't they go after Stevens? Like there were options that they, that they didn't, I don't know if they didn't pursue them or if they just weren't able to make them happen. So, you know, it's always hard to know what the exact TikTok of these things. is I think that George Lombard Jr. is a good prospect. I think that he will be a good big leaguer. I will admit to feeling nervousness and trepidation on the young man's behalf because they did have a need there. And we know how Yankees fans responded to the last guy who wasn't able to live up to expectation. So it's just a lot of pressure to put on, you know, a 21-year-old.

but also he he's a good prospect and we'll see how it goes. I think you're right that they, I'm sure, rightly understand that their fortunes are very much tied up in their injured veterans coming back healthy, you know, judge primarily Bellinger to a lesser but still important degree. And then, you know, Stanton is just like whatever you get out of that guy, you're feeling like it's, you know, sort of found money or whatever. But I think that they, and I don't mean this in like a sports stock radio way, like they probably could have stood to be more active. If you're going to do this, if you think like we don't have to worry about shortstop, we have that guy internally. Okay, great. But like catcher is still like a pretty important need there. And I think that they probably could have made upgrades in the trade market and kept Lombard.

But, you know, I don't know. I don't know what what their phone calls are like, you know. I'm not in on those calls. Yeah. And look, I certainly didn't expect Austin Wells to be this bad. I thought Austin Wells was pretty darn solid. So he's had a Rutchman-esque sort of precipitous decline. So that's odd.

And if they're banking on, well, maybe he's not actually this bad. It's possible, but it is risky. There was a quote the other day from Aaron Boone about Stanton, where he said, it was good to see him outdoors and moving, which sounds like something. thing you would say about me, not a professional athlete. It was good to see him outdoors and moving. He's no longer afraid of the sports. Yeah, you never catch me outdoors.

We can bring him out of doors again. He's no longer afraid of the various pung guys. Consumptive or something. He's taking the air. We're moving into the seasides. Yeah, he's going to bath. Anyway, I would be more willing, I think, to pronounce the race a winner. Yeah.

Because, and again, they were one of the teams. I was saying, well, wouldn't Terrick Skuble have looked good in a raised uniform? And yes, he would have. But failing that, they did get Freddie Peralta, as we talked about last time. They did get Liam Hicks. And for all we know, kept him from the Yankees. They got Tyler Wells. They got Jack Swinsky.

I'm going in descending order of how excited I am about these additions. But that's not nothing. Getting Freddie Peralta and Hicks alone. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that's a sizable upgrade. I liked their deadline. I thought that, you know, it was modest in keeping with their payroll. But once the scoble of it all was sort of off the table, I thought that they pivoted in a way that was good.

I'm a little surprised just given how frequently they trade with each other that one of the Mariners starters didn't end up in tape. Yeah, it's true. Although you did still get the X-rays connection with Peter Bendix and my end up on the Hicks trade. And my last clear winner, I would say, even though they were one of the more aggressive subtractors, I mean, sometimes you should put a seller in the winner category, which sounds weird, but sometimes trading away players is the right thing to do. And if you commit to that strategy, then that deserves to be applauded. I thought the Giants, at least in terms of the number of moves they made, like this is a team that absolutely should have traded guys away and had guys. to trade. And they did. They traded a lot of them. So even more so than the Angels, they said, yeah, we, we know who we are and we have all these guys and you want them, you can have them. So they traded a rise. They traded Ray. They traded Tyler Malley. They traded Caleb Killian,

Eric Miller, Elliott Ramos. Yeah, I mean, six guys. And you could probably evaluate the returns better than I could. but they also certainly climbed the farm system rankings. They're up to 10th now, as one would expect, with the number of moves that they made. So they clearly realized which lane they were in, and they fully embraced that role. Yeah, I think it's interesting. The turnaround that they have had in their farm is not insignificant.

You know, Ben noted this when he did his winners and losers. Like coming into last year, they were like 27th. They're up to 10th in our firm system rankings. And that's with them having graduated Bryce Eldridge. So he's not even accounted for on their list anymore in terms of that value. So yeah, I thought that they did well. You know, they got a top 100 guy in Ramon Marquez. They got a couple of 45s and 40s.

So I think that they not only did they manage to. get like a good amount of sort of potential top end value, but they also just repopulated the depth of that system in a way that's important. Now, similarly to Baltimore, I mean, hang with me, we know all the ways in which they're wildly dissimilar. In fact, if you were to pick two front office executives and ask me to put them at opposite ends of the continuum of analytical to not Baltimore and San Francisco might be the ends there, but will they be able to, to actually do anything with those guys? I don't know the answer to that.

We will see. They've sort of taken some pretty sharp turns in their approach to player dev as they have transitioned from the Farhan era into the Posey era. And so I don't know that we know yet. But I think that they clearly had a moment of self-reflection that I think comports well with the collective understanding of where their team is right now. And it would be pretty delusional to not look at this club and be like, well, you're not going anywhere. You know, you're 48 and 65 as we're recording now.

But also being able to have honest self-assessment and make something of that assessment, bring in guys and see kind of what you have, I think is a useful approach. And, you know, they picked well in terms of who they dealt. I don't think that it changes like the understanding we have of them right now in terms of like the quality of their 2026 season. You know, it's not that much of a vibe shift, but it's at least something. So that's good. And every year when we have Grant Brisbane on for the Giants preview, he says that it'll be a success if they at least figure out if they have a core coming and who might be members of that core. and it's been pretty hard to envision that for a while now. And so now if they have at least a number of prospects you can dream on and you can forecast

and you can say you can fill out a fantasy lineup and say this is the next good Giants team, maybe we have a number of those players in place even hypothetically. That's sort of a win. But Elliot Ramos was supposed to be one of those guys and now he's gone, right? Because the rest of the potential prospects never actually panned out. So no guarantees, but... We haven't even talked about Harrison Bader on the scooter. We haven't even talked about that.

I did when you were... Oh, you did? Yeah, last week. Yes, but we gave that plenty of money because it deserves some. Okay, because like, I like Harrison Bader. Harrison Bader seems like a good hang. My dude. What are you doing?

Also, you know the two people I associate most with scooting, with scooter? are the barba boys because I have seen Jake and Jordan be like you know in downtown Phoenix this was during the the draft combine a couple years ago and it was surface of the sun

hot and they were like we're scooting back to the hotel from dinner because it's just too it's just too hot so Jake and Jordan you be careful out there you're both married now you got to be you know responsible it can't be running into so he ran

into the fire truck and then the fire truck ran over him? That's right. Yeah, I don't fully understand the sequence of events there, but maybe more will come to late. I wonder if Harrison Bader remembers. Yeah, he might not be the most reliable witness. It's been a long time since we've had a team refuses to pay contract situation. It's been, it's been a minute since we've had one of those for, you know, like guys go on the restricted list or whatever, but like this is body. Come on. And in the life comes at you fast category. It wasn't coming Bayer fast as far as we know. I mean, we don't know how fast he was scooting.

But I did mean to mention because Anthony Volpe was demoted, Lombard was promoted, Anthony Volpey was George Lombard Jr. just a few years ago. Right. This is why I'm nervous for him, Ben. Yeah, he was a similarly highly rated prospect. And look, I don't dare to tread into Anthony Volpe discussion. But I know there are people who look at Anthony Volpe and all. the consternation that he has generated and say, this guy is your bet noir?

Like, would that this was the worst outcome for us that a guy is like a two to three war per 600 plate appearances player? I know that more was expected of him and that he can be very frustrating offensively and everything and that defensive systems disagree, but he hasn't been that bad. It's not like total bust or something. But when you fail to pan out the way that, was projected for you and you're a Yankee and you're expected to be good enough for the team to contend. You don't get a lot of rope really and he's gotten far more than I think any Yankees

fan was happy with. But now he's out. And by the way, Jason Dominguez, who has also failed to launch, was sent down at the same time too. And that's all it takes. At the Volpe's 25. He turned 25 a few years ago. It's not like his life is over or something. But already he's He has been replaced. He has been supplanted by another. There's always, it's like in the Phantom Menace, there's always a bigger fish, right? There's always a better prospect or a younger prospect at that position who is coming up behind you, hot on your heels. And so you have to perform.

It's a tough business. And I was thinking of this. Speaking of former shortstops who haven't panned out, the other move the Red Sox made, trading Marcella Meyer to the Giants. for Eric Miller. Now, that's a move that, again, Craig Breslo, being bold, it seemed like they were just eager to move on from the Marcella Meyer era, I guess, and that they had really been frustrated

by his stagnation or his backsliding as a prospect. But this was a guy who was expected to be kind of a cornerstone of a future Red Sox teams. And he did not even get nearly as much of a trial in the big leagues as Volpe. And I can't say he's been knocking down the door or anything in the minors either. And he's been hurt a lot is a big part of the problem for him.

Yeah. But boy, Eric Miller is who you're getting. Again, it's a very quick comeuppance. And I don't know whether that will come back to Breslo and maybe this was just a change of scenery sort of situation for whatever reason. But boy, I would not have expected Rasselmaier to be gone that soon for ineffective. but fairly generic reliever, really?

Yeah, I get what you mean. I do think that, like, there comes a point where the bloom is just so far off the rose. It's better for everyone to be able to move on. It also, you know, strikes me as sometimes it's just they're not your guys, you know? And they overlapped meaningfully, right? Like, Marcello came in, he was 2021 draft, and Breslo, was, when did he start in the front office? A couple years after that, because he was with the Cubs in 23.

Right. So, but, you know, so he was in the organization for, yeah, because he was hired in October of 23. So Meyer had been in the organization for two years. So it's not like it was nothing, but I do think that when these guys don't draft the top dudes, like, they are a little more disposable to them. They're like, yeah, it's not my kid, you know? Yeah. I don't take care of that kid.

That does make them a good by-low candidate potentially for someone like the Giants. Yeah, who swoops in and says, okay, yeah, so they've soured on this guy. Maybe we can be the beneficiaries of that. Right. Okay. And then a couple of the teams we haven't really talked about much because they didn't do much, who thus ended up in my loser category, sounds so harsh. But deadline loser, at least not a huge loser like the Orioles,

but just deadline loser. So I'd probably put the Rangers in that category. I'd probably put the Diamondbacks in that category. Yeah. And I'd probably put the Braves in that category. Again, mostly due to inactivity. Yeah. We talked about the Braves additions the other day.

And, you know, they didn't do nothing, but they didn't do. Yeah, they got Lane Thomas. They got Billy Falter. Yeah. It wasn't a lot given their needs. Correct. they certainly could have used some starting pitching, what with all the injuries and everything.

So even like Padre's caliber starting pitching acquisitions might have gone a long way in Atlanta. And then the Diamondbacks picked up Lars Neupar, who has seemed to be on the verge of being good for a really long time, but just hasn't been for sustained stretches. And I think the Diamondbacks had a we tried, a close call with Clay Holmes maybe. Yeah.

Again, they could have used some pitching too, just didn't really get it. So maybe Corbyn-Burn Burns comes back. I don't know. But they didn't do much at all. And then the Rangers really just didn't do much at all. I mean, they were seemingly more interested in trading de Grom or Seeger and other guys than in adding. And they're right there in that division. And they seem like they should be making some moves to try to bolster that team.

It's not like the Astros did a ton. Right. It's not like the Mariners did a ton either, right? They got Dalton Varsho and Taylor Ward respectively, but that's more than the Rangers did, which was almost zilch. I do wonder, so let's take these in order. So I am inclined to believe, sometimes you hear like the wee tribes and you don't, you're like, yeah, I bet you did. You know, I'm sure you did try that. Like there was that Will Warren, Adrian Morihoan rumor floating around all weekend and then it got finally, I think, squash.

But I am inclined to believe the diamond backs got really close on Clayhomes and then maybe had the rug pulled on them a little bit because Hazen sounded really annoyed that they didn't get more done. So that makes me think that like they kind of got left at the altar a little bit there. I like, like, the large Nupar is not a game-changing player at this point in his career. I think that he is a good addition for them. Like, they need that help in the outfield. I will stop calling him, Shmari Shupar. I just, there's something about his name that I, right? Sure, yeah.

There's a lot about, a lot to love about that name. There's a lot about his name, isn't there? There is just so much one could say about his name. It's a great, you know what? It's a great name. When it comes to the Rangers, I wonder. if two forces were sort of simultaneously at work, one smaller and one larger, the smaller being that they had just been swept by the Astros. And so, do you feel like your fortunes are fundamentally

different when the team at the top of the division is just, like, beaten up on you? So there's, there's that. Also, it sounds like the caliber of move that they were trying to execute something in the Seeger and DeGrom territory, like you mentioned that it can just be a logistical issue at a certain point. If you're trying to move guys like that and then you can't do it, well, you've spent a lot of time trying to get those dudes out the door, especially in DeGrom's case, because it sounds like he put the kibosh on a deal. You know, he exercised his rights of no trade. So it wouldn't surprise me if like they were kind of half in half out, not sure what to do because of the recent losses to the Astros. And then they're like, well, let's try to move the really big expensive guys.

And then they couldn't get that done. And then they were like, ah, Josh Smith, I don't know. Like, you know like get out of here you're not useful anymore you're annoying go you know so i i wonder i'm sure they said it exactly that way yeah because they're monsters no their owner wasn't in the room for a conversation with josh smith what am i talking about that's me being rude about their owner i'm right i just discovered by the way that james woods oblique strain was not only described as mild but also by Blake Beterra manager as subtle, a subtle oblique strain. A subtle oblique strain. A subtle oblique strain.

What does that mean? A subtle oblique strain, meaning like when they went to do imaging, they couldn't find it for a minute or something? Like, what is that? Yeah. I don't know what that means. It doesn't draw attention to itself. It's just, you know, a little.

Yeah. It's just a little twinge every now and then. It's just a little modest. Not out for attention. Yeah. Yeah. I just want to, every now and again, I'll remind you. I'm here.

I'm just, you know. So Mariners, Astros, I assume you may have had more Mariners thoughts. I liked that move. I think that Taylor Ward. Nailed it. It's a good addition to their team. They desperately needed a right-handed bat. I mean, candidly, they needed any kind of bat that can hit.

Yeah. Hasn't been going great lately. I keep comping them to the 2015 Mariners, which for our listeners who were not in the minds that year isn't a good comp. It's a flawed comp because the pitching was sure Garbo that year and it's a lot better this year. But they have a similar vibe, you know, similar feeling to them where I'm glad I'm not on the beep. I was glad they didn't trade George Kirby because I like watching George Kirby pitch for them Mariners. You know, I wouldn't have hated to see them do a little more. And it sounds like they tried to.

but I think that they were right to not like sell low on George Kirby if they didn't like the potential returns there. They're a weird team to upgrade candidly. The one area where I really wish that they had figured something out is like they really could use another high leverage arm, man. Like that pull pen's been kind of rough lately in Munoz. I feel nervous when I'm watching. I said this on Blue Sky over the weekend that I feel like I,

when I'm talking to the Mariners on TV, if I'm watching them, I sound a lot like Hank Hill being disappointed in Bobby. Yeah. It's my energy with this club. And it's like, oh, hold on now. I was sort of surprised that Louise Robert Jr. didn't get dealt. But that's neither here nor there.

That's neither here or there. And then made so many other moves that was just one of those that seemed like, well, he's going to go somewhere. But I guess he had not really played himself into position to be dealt. I think that's right. And then in terms of the Astros, Well, I think that we, you know, on the one hand, the Padres managed to make some moves, and they also have a very bad farm system.

So you could say, hey, Houston, why didn't you do more? I think the nature of the move they did make, I like as addressing a very real big league need for them. They really needed a defensive option and a reasonable, like, you know, everyday bat in the outfield. So now Dalton Bar Show come on down. But I also think the fact that they like traded Spencer Arrogati to get him, which is fine. That's fine. I don't think they were like giving up on a guy who they shouldn't have player of the month just a few months ago. Erigetti is indicative of just how little they had on offer.

Right. Like when you're trading out of your, you know, a guy who's been in your big league rotation, it's a that you have very little in the way of prospect capital. And I think that that's an accurate assessment. They have very little in the way of prospect capital. Pitcher of the month, not player of the month. I don't want to overstate his bona fide his credentials. Yeah.

Yeah. Get it together, Ben. Come on. And I did want to say, even though I'm putting some of these inactive contenders in the loser territory, I didn't fully finish this thought earlier. Because there is such a snarl, such a logjam in the standings, I think it is fair to look askance at the idea that, oh, well, we're just three out or four out or whatever it is. And therefore, we are barred from being sellers because, well, a couple of things.

It's a lot of teams, right? And so it's in isolation being three games out or something, well, maybe that's too close to wave the white flag or whatever you do with a flag. I guess you don't really wave it. I was thinking of waving a towel, but... Don't you wave the white flag? I guess you could. Yeah, you hold it up and attach it to a stick and you come to parley. Anyway, yes, I guess you can wave it.

So whatever you do with the white flag, it's meaningfully different when there are like six other teams that are in that same situation, because obviously that affects your playoff odds. And while I do want to almost be an absolutist about it and just say, well, if you're the close. It's very conceivable that you could contend. You do if you're in that position and you have to make those hard decisions have to evaluate the actual probabilities and the probabilities are lower of you making the playoffs if you're three games back with four other teams right there than if you're three games back with like one team between you and the playoff spot. So those are significantly different situations and should be evaluated and treated differently.

And also a wild card. Now, this could come into criticism of how expanded the playoff field is, but a wild card is just not worth as much as another playoff spot. And it should be valued more lightly, which sort of stinks to say because it's also true that if you get into October and you get any kind of playoff spot, good things can happen and randomness and small samples and you can still absolutely win. so I don't really believe in the idea that, oh, they're good enough to sneak in, but they can't win. Anyone who's in can win conceivably, but it is different and your probabilities are different,

and that's just the system that we have now for better or worse. Often, I think worse in some respects, but if you have the system, well, you're one of 12 teams, and also you're not one of the 12 with the higher probability because of the wildcard round and everything. So you do have to evaluate those things differently, and that's fair. And that's why a team like the Nationals may have done what it did, where it didn't just make the Mead for early trade, which you could say, well, they're just as strong after making that move. But also made the Garcia deal and the Griffin deal, et cetera, right? So, yeah, I get it. It's sort of defensible, even if it stinks.

At least it's defensible for some teams. And you look at the differences in playoff odds and World Series odds, as Dan's. Siborski ran courtesy of Zips. They're just not that big in most cases. And the deadline does tend to be overrated because it's so intriguing and fun to talk about and be rumor mongers about. But other than the Dodgers, we talked about how much they boosted their already robust World Series odds. Most other teams didn't change them that much. The Yankees somewhat surprisingly were second there and the Red Sox were third, less surprisingly.

And then the brewers were actually fourth when it came to improvement in World Series winning percentage. And I didn't know what to do with the brewers. I was initially inclined to put them in the loser category because I wanted them to do something sexier. And I think a lot of people did. And it seemed like they were trying to. And it seemed like they wanted to and were willing to to some extent. And then when they didn't and they couldn't quite get the scoble deal done, well, anything that's going to happen after that is obviously going to be a bit of a let. down. But, A, they are already a really good team. Right. And there were only so many ways they could

meaningfully upgrade. Matt Truble just wrote a piece for BP the other day about the Brewers, which was headlined something like, what do you get the team that has everything, right? They didn't have that many glaring weaknesses. And then ultimately they did make some additions and some moves, and they made a trade, another intra-division trade with the Cardinals to pick up Dustin May and Jojo Romero. And then they picked up Antonio Sonsetella from the Rockies. And the Rockies actually did make some moves. You know, some of the guys who were maybe theoretically big candidates to be traded.

Like I never believed that Byron Buxton was going to be traded and he wasn't. I didn't really buy that Hunter Goodman was either. And he wasn't. I don't know whether they got close to anything. At least they made some moves. Like in the past the Rockies would have said we will extend Antonio Sonsetella. I mean, they did. They had him for.

Yeah, I was going to say, they did in fact do that at one point. They would have, oh, let's keep him. And I guess they did just sign Mickey Moniac to a two-year extension. But at least they correctly recognized that, hey, this guy has had a bit of a breakout for us. And maybe we helped and we should capitalize on that. So the brewers did get better. And they traded some prospects to do that. And yes, I wish they had gone and gotten someone with an even.

bigger impact because they have been good and they've been in the running for so long and it just feels like you need to make that one move because you've been so stymied in the postseason, but at least they did some stuff in the end. So I don't know. I can't wholeheartedly declare them a loser. I think that they did fine, you know, I think it was fine. I think that once school bull doesn't happen, you know, it's going to be hard for it to be great. Yeah. Because, boy, would that have been a fun one too, you know, come October, good, good luck. Yeah. Good luck.

But they're a really good team and they also have a lot of potential internal reinforcement from their farm system. So I thought it was, I thought it was okay even if I wish that it had been a little different. Good for, you know what? Like, good for Dustin May, man. Yeah, yeah. Dustin May. Also, good for the Cardinals. Good for the Cardinals being like, I don't know, I think it has something in this guy. And then like, they got a, I mean, we're the high, we're the high outlet, I think on the prospect that they sent the Brewers. But they got a real dude in that trade. So, you know, I thought it was fine in Jojo. They get Jojo. They get Jojo. I love saying Jojo as a name. The Brewers, that is. They got Jojo from the Cardinals.

Yeah. I was a long-time believer in Dustin May. And even I had abandoned much of my. I hope for him. So, yeah, good job by the Cardinals, by getting good work out of him and then also flipping him for someone. And they are in that category where, okay, it was a pleasant surprise that they stayed in it this year, but no one really expected it to.

And they were a more entertaining team than you really could have hoped. And also they figured some stuff out about the guys that they're going to keep and be able to depend on. So it has been a somewhat successful season. and given the expectations coming in. But yeah, the brewers themselves sounded somewhat frustrated or flummox that they didn't get scoble.

And there was a quote by Murphy, which was kind of cryptic. And I wasn't sure exactly how to interpret it because our Brewer's preview guest described this as eye-opening comments. And I don't know that I would say that because I'm still not sure. entirely what it was implying, but maybe eyebrow-raising comments at least where Pat Murphy said, it isn't as simple as that's a better package. It's not as simple as that. There's a lot more, a lot more layers to it to say the brewers didn't try is simply incorrect. This is when it comes to trading for scuba. And so it sounds like they're saying in so many words that they thought they had put a pretty compelling offer together for Scoople

and that for whatever reason the Tigers went in a different direction. And as we said the other day, sometimes teams just have an internal evaluation of a certain guy that differs from the public consensus and they just might have really liked Zahir Hope or whoever. But we were saying. Yeah, or River Ryan. Or River Ryan.

I suspect that the mismatch was with him rather than. Is that your hope? Yeah, and maybe they just wanted a big league ready pitcher, and the brewers weren't going to give up Logan Henderson or something. But they seemed to think that they had put together a strong offer and that maybe, I mean, I read various articles where unnamed sources were saying that some people thought it was a better offer than the one that the tigers ultimately accepted and that the brewers had been willing to include. Louise Pena, who is generally, I think, a higher rated prospect than hope, according to the public sources. So if that's true, if they were willing to put him in other top 100 guys or at least one other top 100 guy, as was reported in that deal. And the Tigers just prefer the Dodgers package. Well, I guess you win some, you lose some, and the Dodgers win a lot of them.

But I can understand why they might feel like we made a real effort to do this. and the ball was in Detroit's court, and it just didn't go our way. Yeah, yeah. And this is where it's like, you wish you could, like, administer a truth serum to everybody and be like, so who did you really?

Yes, because we are firmly in we tried territory. So take it with a grain of soul. Right. Who did you really offer? Because if, if they really did say, hey, we will send you Luis Pena and another top 100 guy, Mades off the table, but, you know, and Detroit just was like, we really love River Ryan.

well, what do you do? You know, that's the, that's the best you can do. I would have taken Milwaukee's package, but also I don't know if one that happened to who the other top 100 guy is. Like, you just need the particulars of it. It sounds like from the public reporting that they were like more in on trying to get it done than, say, Tampa Bay was. But, again, it's always hard to really know.

It's hard to really know. Matt Arnold said we certainly talked about doing some quote unquote irresponsible stuff as well. But we tried to thread the needle. As Murph says, we were prepared to push a lot of chips in. And look, I think we did. So, yeah, they did some decent work. And it's a really good team regardless. So we've talked about just about everyone.

I guess I approved of what the White Sox did as well. Sure. They did decent work. We talked about the Castillo trade last time. In addition to that, they made a few other moves, right? So, yeah, I thought decent stuff from them. They picked up Bretton Doyle, right? Another Rockies cast off.

And, yeah, like, they were in decent position. They picked up Wascar Brazabon. Yeah. So, yeah, I think, you know, they're in decent position in the Central. And they needed a little help and they got a little help. They got Joey Bart from the break. as well. Yeah, that's right. They got Joey Bart. Yeah. They're lousy with catchers, but Joey's the man, man. Yeah, get Joey. All right. Anything noteworthy that we haven't touched on?

We touched on a whole lot of trades. There were a ton of them. There were a lot of trades. I would like to express my gratitude to the Fangraph staff for their excellent work, because I think that they did a great job, both in terms of their quality of analysis. and the rapidity with which it was done. And thanks to everyone for reading. And also, these are the times of year where I feel like I should remind everyone that running a site like VanGravs takes a lot of work

around deadlines like this. So if you're in a position to become a member, we hope you'll consider that because it's the best way to support the site and also the best way to experience it because, boy, you're adds a bummer. And we did a little sidebar, Ben. We did a little right-hand sidebar on the site. So it's all right there.

So easy to find everything. I was like, oh, we should have that. And then Sean was like, no problem. I got you. So I don't know. I feel very tired, but I thought it was an exciting deadline. I thought that it was a really interesting deadline. And now everybody has two months to show us what they're made of.

Oh, and also, can I end on a slightly bummer note that's unrelated to baseball? The fires that hit Spokane, Washington were just like really, really. super devastating and this is like a pretty densely populated area that they were in. This is like a, you know, it's a small city. It's the second largest city in Washington. The northern suburbs were hit really hard. A lot of people displaced, a lot of homes that burned. So if you're in a position to help folks out there, that would be nice. It was really rough and really devastating. So my thoughts are with folks back home because it's pretty gnarly up there from a fire and air quality perspective right now, so hope everybody's hanging in there.

Indeed. I will link to any resources you sent me on the show page. Thank you. All right. Guess who homered in his Yankee debut? That's right. George Lombard Jr. accounted for the second run in a 2-0 Yankees victory. Also added a walk.

Could Anthony Volpe do that? I mean, yeah, maybe, but not regularly. I got a message from a friend who said, man, if only John Sterling were around for Lombard, he'd come up with something truly unhinged. And I know he wouldn't have disappointed. It definitely would have been something like Georgie Porgy, a power orgy.

And the Yankees take a two-nothing lead. Well, how do you like that, Susan? Or maybe it is high, it is far, it is gone. It's a solo shot for Lombard. The gladness of King George. And the Yankees take a two-nothing lead. Well, can you believe it, Susan? I mean, can you believe it?

And it's gone. Gorgeous George juices, one. A little Lombard support. And the Yankees take a two-nothing lead. I tell you, Susan, that one got out of here in a hurry. Get a load of that. George Lombard goes to the lumberyard. And the Yankees take a two-nothing lead. It's a home run for Furious George, a Lombardment. And the Yankees take a two-nothing lead. Man, I miss him. I can hear him in my head. I feel like I'm channeling his spirit. Gone but not forgotten. RIP, John, and welcome to the Biggs, George. A few other minor moves

we forgot to mention. The Angels did deal Brent Suter as well to Atlanta. The Cubs acquired Tyrone Taylor in the Clayhomes deal. Or from Tyrone Taylor's perspective, they acquired Clayhomes in the Tyrone Taylor trade. We had also already discussed the Bone Naler deal, the Logan O'Hoppy trade, and Chase Siltz. I like the Angels getting Moisei by Asteros in the Zephyrjohn deal. The Rockies also traded Reliever Victor Vodnik to Miami. And if you were hoping, as I was, that these Rockies Relievers trades would open up some space on the big league roster for our boy, John Brebia. Well, no such luck. In fact, he was released from the AAA Albuquerque isotopes.

His trials and travels continue. Anyway, you too can look up a list of every single trade that was made, but I think we hit the high points and the low points. It's always one of the high points of my day when someone signs up to support effectively wild on Patreon. because in addition to supporting fan graphs, a worthy cause, of course, you can support the podcast directly. Just visit patreon.com slash effectively wild and sign up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount

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Monthly bonus episodes, membership in our Discord group for patrons only, exclusive live streams, personalized messages, prioritized email answers, shoutouts at the end of episodes, potential podcast appearances, Fangraphs, memberships, and more. Check out all the offerings at patreon.com slash effectively wild. If you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro, intro themes to podcast at Fangraphs.com. You can rate, review, and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcast, Spotify,

YouTube music and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook group at Facebook.com slash group slash effectively wild. You can find the Effectively Wild sub-edit at our slash Effectively Wild. And you can check the show notes in the podcast posts of Fangraphs or Patreon or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We'll be back with one more episode a little later this week. Talk to you then.