Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2518: Dear John

Starting point is 00:00:00 Room, room, room. Here's your primer on Beef Boys, Baseball's Inn, Roger Angel, and Super Pretzels, Lillian's Astadillo, and Mike Trout hypotheticals, waiting for the perfect bat from a volcanic corruption. Ladies and gentlemen, the Effectively Wild introduction. Hello and welcome to episode 2518 of Effectively Wild, a Fangraphs baseball podcast brought by our Patreon supporters. I'm a Grawley of Fangraffs, and I am joined by Ben Limburg of the Ringer. Ben, how are you? I'm kind of confused. So the ball's dead now. I can't evidently.

Starting point is 00:00:30 The last time we talked about the ball, it was a little too lively, perhaps. Now, perhaps, it's a little too dead. I can't keep track of which way the ball is swinging. So, hello there. If you're listening to the free preview, I'm skipping ahead slightly here, past this banter about the latest change in the baseball's behavior. On this episode, we answer lots of emails and do several stat blasts with a top-tier Patreon listener guest. But before that, we have a lengthy tree.

Starting point is 00:00:58 tribute to Tommy John, which I don't want to have to cut off, so I'll take you straight to it. Tommy John appears to be nearing his last days, sadly. It seems that his days are numbered. All of our days are numbered, but his number perhaps is lower than we would all like. And he released a statement coinciding with the Yankees' old-timers game this past Sunday. And it was framed as a farewell, essentially. And it was reported. that he is in hospice care, I believe, at home in Bradenton, Florida. He has had a recurrence of bladder cancer. So his statement was, I want to thank the Yankees organization and the Steinbrenner family for giving me this opportunity to say goodbye to everyone, along with all the friends and fans

Starting point is 00:01:47 who followed me throughout my 26-year career. Thanks to Dr. Job, who saved my arm and made it possible for me to continue pitching. That surgery has since gone on to save the careers of countless pitchers, including many of the very best in the game today. Thank you to all the fans who supported me and my teammates for 26 years. I will never forget you. The day I left for my first job as a pitcher, my father looked at me and said, good luck, Tommy. Just remember one thing, whether you make it in the big leagues or you don't. You'll always just be Tommy John from Terre Haute, Indiana.

Starting point is 00:02:16 I've never forgotten those words. Thank you. And God bless Tommy John, parentheses, T.J. So, yeah, that made me sad. And we wish him well. Obviously would wish for recovery, but if a recovery is not in the cards, then I wish him the most painless passing possible, surrendered by loved ones with all of his affairs in order, essentially. He is 83 years old. I was looking back at what he will be best remembered for, which is, of course, the surgery that bears his name.

Starting point is 00:02:51 And I was thinking that I didn't really know how this was described or reported on at the time. Did people understand the significance of what would come to be called Tommy John surgery? Or was it just another medical procedure that really obtained its legendary status in retrospect? And so I did a newspapers.com deep dive and I was browsing and I was reading contemporary accounts because this year is the 50th anniversary of his comeback from that surgery. which he had in 1974 and returned from in 1976. And I want to share some clippings that I came across. First of all, I think he should probably be remembered for many things, but also he was a heck of a pitcher.

Starting point is 00:03:35 I mean, fantastic pitcher who's remembered as one of the best pitchers who is not in the Hall of Fame and one of the best pitchers who is close to the 300 win club, but not in it. He has 288. and he has an excellent case to be a Hall of Famer regardless of the surgery. The surgery alone just makes him a baseball legend, but just on a pure performance basis. He does have one of the biggest gaps between his fan graphs were and his baseball reference war. Oh. Yeah, so his baseball reference war is 61.6, which is obviously solid, you know, near Hall of Fame territory, maybe borderline Cooperstown caliber.

Starting point is 00:04:16 Obviously, he played forever 26 years, as he said in his statement, and he's top 20th innings pitched all time, nearly 5,000 innings. His Fangraphs wore is 79.4. So Fancrafts is higher on his career. And 79.4, that makes him like one of the biggest Cooper Stouten snubs if you use that number. And obviously, there was a lot of length and career value and a little less peak. But still, there's something to be said for that kind of career value. And I was interested in the disparity there what accounts for that difference. And I was thinking, oh, it's probably a ERA FIP differential, or maybe it's something about the way baseball reference is calculating the defense behind him.

Starting point is 00:05:00 It doesn't actually seem to be either of those. And I was trying to unravel what it is. Partly, I think it's just that small differences get magnified over 26 years and 4,700 innings. But I asked Tom Tango about this what he thought, and he said he's a great. Ground ball heavy pitcher, so his unearned runs per total runs is something like 40% or 50% higher than league average. And Tango said that's one of the problems with fielding errors. You get far higher errors with infielders than outfielders. So a pitcher who gives up a lot of ground balls will get more fielding errors.

Starting point is 00:05:35 But the standard is always perfect fielding. That's the expectation of what ERA is assuming. So you can have Johann Santano or Kurt Schilling as fastball heavy and Roy Halliday or Felix Hernandez as ground ball heavy pitchers, and even if they all get identical batters reaching base, simply the tagging of reaching base as a single or an error has a trickle-down effect to ERA. So, I don't know, pick your war. I'm not sure one is objectively more accurate when it comes to John, but either way, he is a really great pitcher.

Starting point is 00:06:06 And another fascinating fact about his career is that he had as long a career and maybe a better career post-surgery than pre-surgery, which is amazing because he was well into his career. He was a veteran. It was his age 31 season in 74 when he had it. And yet he went on to have even more innings after the surgery. He threw 2163 and a third innings prior to the surgery, 25, 40, and two-thirds after the surgery. And that's coming back as he did in his age 33 season. So that's pretty impressive.

Starting point is 00:06:46 And war-wise, with baseball reference, it's almost identical. It's like a tenth of a win pre-end post career value-wise. FanGraphs has him as more valuable after the surgery, which again is pretty impressive given the ages he was in that portion of his career. Do you think that we would remember that surgery by his name if he had not been as successful after the surgery, or if he had not been a Hall of Fame or near Hall of Fame level player. Like if he had been the first and it hadn't worked, or if it had worked, but he just wasn't that great a player, maybe a more forgettable guy, even if he was still the Trailblazer.

Starting point is 00:07:29 Do you think we would call it, insert generic name here? Or is it because he came back and it was such a stirring success and he was such a great player overall. I think that the post-op success has a lot to do with it and the fact that he was so good. Because like most many surgeries,

Starting point is 00:07:53 if you associate a human name with them at all, it's probably the person who pioneered it more than it is. I mean, maybe. Frank Job surgery. Yeah. Most people just don't know the names of surgeries. They know the name of the body part.

Starting point is 00:08:08 And then they're like, I had surgery on my blah blah blah yeah right and so i think that his ability to come back and be what he was is why it it became associated with him if he was just like the first guy to get it but the version of it that really ended up mattering for people was you know 20 guys down the line or whatever with further refinement than then we probably associated with the the surgeon if we associated with anything. I think you're right. Because for example, I think the first guy or the first established big leaguer to get the internal brace repair was Seth Mainis. And no one calls that Seth Mainis surgery. Now, maybe that's, it's sort of a spin-off of Tommy John. Maybe that's part of it, too.

Starting point is 00:08:57 I think also it helps that Tommy John. That's a quick name to say. Yeah, that's true. That's a quick and easy name to say. And it abbreviates down. It acronizes down. What's the word for one, something? goes from being the constituent elements of a of a acronymize atomized down to tj like it's just a quick quick you know but i think it being Tommy john makes it easy to say it's an easy name and he was a great player and that combination i think is pretty potent for sticking in people's minds yeah it's like grant brisbee's pet peeve is people call the the catcher rule the buster posey rule And Grant always points out it wasn't Posey wasn't the proximate cause. It was actually it was Alex Avila, but no one really remembers it as the Alex Avila rule because Posey was way more famous and that incident was way more noteworthy too because of when it happened and how it happened and whom it happened to.

Starting point is 00:09:56 So yeah, I think it was kind of a confluence of all of those things. But reading the contemporary accounts, I think he deserves a lot of credit for being the first. He wasn't just John on the spot. Right. He wasn't just at the right place at the right time. He was, but also it took some bravery and work and commitment to make it as successful as it was. So reading these accounts, I'll put a link to a document where I put together a Tommy John timeline where I went month by month in the newspaper accounts and I hit some of the highlights of the updates on his progress and so people can track it if they want. I'll just, I'll speed through it here. So what stands out to me is that I don't think people knew, and this is often the case with history, you don't know how significant something is in the moment. Right. If you had just been reading these contemporaneous accounts, you would not have known that something that was going to change the game forever had just happened. And I think even now, like when Terrick Scoople got the nanoneedle, you had Scott Boris trying to brand it as the Scoobel scope, we had all sorts of features.

Starting point is 00:11:08 on the technology and the technique and everything, people were well aware. There's a big PR campaign behind, oh, this is new and it's revolutionary. And maybe part of that is like people pushing a product and trying to sell stuff or, you know, surgeons drumming up interest in themselves or something. But also I think there was organic interest and, hey, there's a new kind of elbow procedure that might help pictures get back sooner. That's kind of cool. And suddenly it was like a household name or even internal brace repair if it doesn't have a catchy name or a player associated with it. Still got a lot of press and people knew it took longer for that, I think, to break through into something people were well aware of. But the scuble scope, the nanoneedle, that was everywhere as soon as it

Starting point is 00:11:51 happened. And maybe because scoble is such a prominent pitcher, right? It was. But if you recall, at the time, before we knew it was working well, I cautioned Boris against sort of associating it so closely with his guy. And then I, I had to walk it back, but it's like you don't want to, it needs to work. You know, it needs, and part of why I think that the internal brace has sort of gained popularity is that, well, it seems to work. I mean, we still don't, or are still kind of waiting for like long-term studies on the, you know, how many revisions. I love that they call it that. Like, you're like doing a line at it on somebody's elbow.

Starting point is 00:12:32 But, you know, how many revisions do pitchers typically have? Like, does it have the same sort of long-term viability that a full UCL reconstruction has? Once it became clear, though, that guys were able to come back and come back sooner. Well, then everyone was really excited about internal brace because we get to see the guys sooner, right? We're excited about the scubel scope and the potential for the scubel scope because, well, look it. It's Derek Schuble. And while we will wonder later in this episode if he is a bad hang, we don't really wonder with that much sincerity. you know, the fact that he was able to really meet some of these aggressive benchmarks for

Starting point is 00:13:12 return, it was like, okay, Scott, got a handed to you. Like getting your guy's name associated with something that has the potential to sort of change how we think about pitcher injury. That's a big deal. Yeah. But you got to, it's got to work first. Yeah. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:13:28 Okay, I'm not going to specify all the sources here in the interest of expediency, but I will link to them, a lot of wire services, a lot of AP accounts. So the injury that prompted the surgery occurred on July 17, 1974. And the story in at least one paper in July 18th, this was maybe syndicated or a morning edition or something. So it was before he got hurt. The headline was Dodgers Tommy John, I should be an All-Star. He was quite aggrieved because New York Mets manager, Yogi Berra, had left him off the All-Star team. And John was off to an excellent start.

Starting point is 00:14:02 He felt like he deserved to be there. He said, if I don't belong on the team, there is no justice in baseball. And Yogi said, there's only one reason I didn't pick him. He is going to be pitching Sunday for the Dodgers. So what good would he do me on Tuesday? It's Zach Wheeler. I was just about to say, oh, my gosh. That's so funny.

Starting point is 00:14:21 Yep. So the same stories repeat over and over and over again, as I will note later on this episode. So that's why Yogi didn't include him. And Tommy John said, in all my baseball career, I'd have to say this is the biggest disappointment I've had. But probably it would not be his disappointment by the end of that very day, his biggest disappointment, because that same day, he suffered the injury. He was pitching against the expos and they had Steve Rogers going.

Starting point is 00:14:50 And immediately there was speculation that John had been trying too hard to impress people to show up yogi and to say, I deserve to be an all-star. So it says whether he was trying too hard to impress people. press is not known, but John suffered a painful pulled muscle. That's how it was initially reported near the elbow on his pitching arm and had to leave the game with the Dodgers up four to nothing. And manager Walter Alston said, I'm more concerned about losing Tom than I am the ballgame. And the Dodgers hoped to learn the severity of John's injury when he was examined again by team physician. Dr. Frank Job today will look at the elbow again. Dr. Job said after placing the arm in

Starting point is 00:15:31 nice, it looks like a pulled muscle, and it has nothing to do with the elbow operation he had two years ago. So this is the backstory. He had bone chips, it sounds like. He had sort of a pre-scoopal bone chip loose body repair a couple years earlier. And so that, I think, informed how people reacted to this initially. It seemed like, oh, he's just got another elbow thing. And he had already had a successful elbow surgery. However, July 19th, just a, day later, Tommy John, the winningest pitcher in the National League this year, has a ruptured ligament in his left elbow and could be lost to the Dodgers for the rest of the season. The Dodgers announced Thursday that John would be placed on the disabled list for 21 days.

Starting point is 00:16:15 Dodgers team physician, Dr. Frank Job, said he has not ruled out surgery on the elbow at a future date. John had a bone chip operation on the same elbow in the winter of 1972. Dr. Job, who described the injury as a rupture of the medial collateral ligament of the left elbow, said he would examine John periodically for several weeks to see if the arm would heal and then would perform surgery if necessary. And it did very much follow the progression that we sometimes see today where even if you know there's a ligament issue, you give it a little time to see if rest will help. Obviously, he wasn't getting PRP platelet-rich plasma therapy back in the day, but it was the same idea. Let's avoid surgery. Let's see if rest and rehab will work.

Starting point is 00:16:57 So I just went kind of month to month. That was July. They just got to wait and see what happens. As of August, August 22nd, Tommy John's still optimistic that he was going to come back to pitch that year. He said, the media counted me out, but I never did. He said I was pitching to Hal Breeden of Montreal. This was recounting the injury.

Starting point is 00:17:18 I threw him a fastball, and it felt like two bones had come apart. I walked off the mound immediately. They don't know too much about this kind of injury, so there was no timetable they can give me. But if I'm lucky, I'll be pitching by the second week of September, and I'll pitch in the playoffs and World Series. I wouldn't say I'm hopeful, confident is more like it. Well, it was a false confidence.

Starting point is 00:17:40 He was not that lucky. So he said he did try to keep throwing. He said, I'm throwing about three-quarters speed now. It will be about two more weeks before I'll cut loose. If it's all right, I can start pitching right away. And spoilers. It was not all right. But he was supremely confident, which will be a theme throughout.

Starting point is 00:18:02 So a few days later in August, he was talking about how he was going on all the road trips. He said, the guys have been telling me, you know, Tommy, if you hadn't come on this road trip, we might have been able to have two buses. Your meal money cost us the extra one. So they were saying that he could have just stayed home. But he asked Walter Alston if he could go. He wanted to travel with the team. He said, I'll tell you, you come along this far with the guys. you don't want to be home just sitting around, and he still at that point hoped to pitch again that season.

Starting point is 00:18:32 All right. Fast forwarding to mid-September of 1974, finally he concedes the headline, Tommy John doesn't expect to pitch again this season. So this is when he accepted that it was not going to happen. He said, I'm to the point now that I want to pitch, but if I can't pitch to the ball club's advantage, I want to go ahead and get the surgery done. This isn't August anymore. I have to think about the time I'll need to get in shape for next year. So he was still thinking of it very much as I'll be back next year.

Starting point is 00:19:00 And he wasn't at 100%. He said, it never entered my mind that I wouldn't come back and pitch, but I just don't have the quality I expected myself and the quality of the guys on the team and the fans deserved. So he flew home from San Francisco to have x-rays taken of the ligament. He said, if we were wallowing around in third place, maybe I could go in and pitch two or three innings, but I'm hesitant to try it with 25,000.

Starting point is 00:19:23 $25,000 at stake. I don't want to be the one who takes $25,000 from Jimmy Wins or Steve Garvey's pocket. He was referring to the playoff and World Series bonuses that he was hoping that the Dodgers would get. He threw some batting practice. A hitter said, not bad, but that's not your best. I can't throw a real good curve. I can throw a slider, but I can't snap off the curve the way I want. And this also mentioned that his wife, Sally, was expecting their first baby in about two weeks. And he said, wouldn't it be something? if we were both in the hospital at the same time. And that actually kind of came to pass. So the next update, September 17th, very briefly, it just says Tommy John to surgery. And it's a two-paragraph item.

Starting point is 00:20:09 Left-handed pitcher Tommy John will undergo surgery on his left elbow, September 25th. The NL Club announced Monday night. That's it, basically. So he said he's been working out and throwing lightly since then. Didn't say he announced that he will have a. revolutionary surgery that is unprecedented that will change the game forever. Just he'll have surgery. And then another small item, September 26th, Dodgers Tommy John, has two-hour surgery.

Starting point is 00:20:34 Englewood, California, Dodgers left-hander Tommy John, who's been on the injured list since July, and they did call it the injured list in that item, underwent two-hour elbow surgery Wednesday at Centinella Valley Hospital. We are optimistic about the outcome, said Dr. Frank Job, who performed the operation, but we don't be able to tell a great deal until spring training. Job said a tendon from John's right forearm was used to help reconstruct the injured left elbow. But that's it. It's three paragraphs.

Starting point is 00:21:02 It doesn't say, can you believe they use the tendon from his right forearm to help reconcerns? It doesn't provide any context like this has never happened before. They're trying an experimental surgery that has never been attempted on a pitcher. Like there's no sense of how seismic this is. Do you think that it was because it wasn't cadaver ligaments? That that would have made it more sensational? I think so. I think the fact that the first one was him and his own stuff is why, is at least maybe part of why the strangeness of it wasn't lingered on as long, potentially.

Starting point is 00:21:43 I wonder, because now they use, don't they use cadaver? Sometimes, it depends. Well, some of the time, not a lot of the time. not a lot of the time is probably overstating it. But if the first one had been like, we dug a ligament out of this guy. Yeah, maybe that's, that could be part of it or maybe I guess. They just didn't understand the. Yeah, I think they just didn't understand.

Starting point is 00:22:06 And it wasn't like Frank Job was shouting from the rooftops or the rafters or whatever you shout from that he was performing a brilliant experimental surgery, that he was some sort of mad scientist or something, and Tommy John was his guinea pig. He wasn't saying that. And so maybe they were just trying to keep expectations in check. Maybe they were trying not to make this a huge story and trying to make it seem like a routine surgery or just people weren't asking the right questions. So then we fast forward to October of 1974 and the Dodgers are making their playoff run. They end up in the World Series. And again, spoilers, they do not win that one.

Starting point is 00:22:48 But it says injured Tommy John has reasons for joy. And he was frustrated that he was on the sidelines, as his teammates were marching to the World Series. However, that future that he forecast did come to pass because he ended up in the hospital around the time that his wife was delivering their first child. So this was quite a hectic period for him. Tamara Marie John, six pounds, seven ounces, entered the world two days, after her father underwent surgery to repair his left elbow.

Starting point is 00:23:21 Her date of birth began with Papa still in the hospital. Sally visited me in the hospital Thursday night. Next morning around 7 o'clock, she called and asked if I could get out of the hospital. When I asked why, Sally said, I'm in labor. I tried to call Dr. Job, who was then operating on Eddie Matthews. I asked that Dr. Job returned my call when he did. I told him about Sally. He checked everything out, changed the cast, and wanted to check the muscles in my hand.

Starting point is 00:23:46 He gave me permission to leave. arranged for a neighbor to pick me up, and we took Sally to her doctor's office. Her doctor told us to go to the hospital. So Tammy was born at 3.04 p.m. Friday, I stayed until about a quarter till four. Then I had to drive 42 miles across town to Dr. Job's office. He put on a new cast. Then I drove home and went to sleep. What a day. And Sally's mother was there. So that's one of the times you definitely want your mother-in-law around when you have a newborn. So that helped. And he does say here, John believes his September 25th operation was the first of its kind ever performed on a baseball player. Dr. Job removed a seven-inch piece of tendon from my right arm and used it to reconstruct the medial collateral ligament in my left elbow. He wound the ligament through the tendon three to four times, reattached it to the elbow, and tightened the elbow. God made us with spare parts. That particular tendon in your right arm. All it does is wrinkle the skin on the heel of your hand so it could come out. And then he talked a little bit about some of the symptoms and after effects

Starting point is 00:24:47 and pain he felt when he threw that fateful fourth inning pitch to Hal Breeden. There was a dull pain, not excruciating, nothing to make my eyes water. I felt a clunking movement like you get from hitting your fists together. I felt the same thing the next pitch, so I called time, walked off the mound, and told Walt, I couldn't pitch anymore. And then he talks a bit about how he hoped to avoid surgery, but couldn't. But that, I think, after he has had the surgery, that's kind of the first time that he actually said, I'm the first guy ever to have this. This is trailblazing. So he said, I won't be able to

Starting point is 00:25:20 throw baseball till January, but he's an optimistic realist. It's probably as serious an operation as a pitcher can have on his arm. Nobody knows how it'll come out until I start throwing, because this is the first time for this kind of surgery, on an athlete. They do it with hands and knees all the time. Doug Sanders, pro golfer, had his hand reconstructed earlier this year, and he's back swinging a club. Dr. Job says, I have a lot of things going for me. I'm not an overpowering pitcher, I can change speeds, pitch to spots, and have high pain tolerance, plus experiences taught me how to get hitters out. And then there's an item a little later that October about how he's sitting it out and watching

Starting point is 00:25:57 his colleagues and teammates in the World Series. And the thing that goes through my mind is that I hope we get here next year and in years to come because I expect to be pitching then. And he was frustrating. He said, they tell me it was like filling a bathtub with an eyedropper. It takes a lot of drops, but finally the tub will overflow. That's how he described why the ligament broke on that particular pitch. So that's evocative imagery.

Starting point is 00:26:25 Yeah. Okay. And then November, we're up to November 1974, and it mentions that some other Dodgers had elbow surgery and that he just had his cast removed, so that was the progress there. December, late December, there's an item that says that he'll return to action after suffering this ruptured ligament. So people were projecting that he would pitch in 1975. But not everyone in December 20th, Davy Lopes, his teammate said, Tommy John ain't going to be back. That's a harsh evaluation.

Starting point is 00:27:01 They took a tendon from here pointing to his right wrist and put it here, indicating his left elbow. He can't even straighten his fingers yet. So Lopes was not an optimist. But it also said late December, another story. The Dodgers hoped to learn something about the future of Tommy John in January. January came. He said he hoped to pitch in 75. He said, I think I will.

Starting point is 00:27:22 The only thing I can't say is whether it will be in April, May, or June. Frank Job said that it was one of the most serious operations on a pitcher. It makes me pessimistic that he will be pitching this year. I hope he will be pitching next year. And then again, in January, he said he felt that his arm has been cured. He was confident. He's got pretty good range of motion in his arm. It's going to take some time to get it back in shape. But it feels good now. I'm confident that I can come back and pitch as well, if not better, than last year. But Frank Job was still pumping the brakes. He said,

Starting point is 00:27:54 two years ago, I could predict that he'd come back like new when he had that earlier elbow surgery. I can't do that this time. Very few pitchers have come back from elbow surgery. I've done it. And that's why I think I can do it again. That's what John said. I think the elbow will be stronger than it was after the first operation, I will have a brand new ligament in my elbow that hasn't had much stress. The other one had 23 years of stress. So again, he was constantly like, yeah, I'm coming back any day now. And Frank Job was like, well, wait a second, let's just see. He also added, some people have said I injured myself because I was trying to throw too hard to show Yogi Berra something. That's hogwash. And that same day, there was a headline,

Starting point is 00:28:32 Dr. Doubtz, L.A. as Tommy John can pitch this coming season. So they were kind of sending different messages a little bit there where Frank Job was like, let's wait and see. I guess, you know, he wanted to be conservative. He didn't want to celebrate his own brilliance and genius. And I guess he wanted to set expectations lower so that they could perhaps be exceeded. But John said, I asked the doctor if there's anything I could have done to prevent the injury. He just said it was the accumulation of stresses on the arm. It was just one pitch that was the straw that broke the can't.

Starting point is 00:29:07 is back. And then February, we're almost up to the 75 season. And this is the first time really where there's a headline that says that he might be done. Tommy John's career in jeopardy. And Frank Job actually says here, Tommy John may be back, but I'm very pessimistic about his chances at this point. We took a good part of the tendon from his right arm and reconstructed the ligament in his left. He's ready physically for everything. But throwing an operation like that sometimes takes years to heal to throw a baseball your arm experiences some very unnatural strain. I don't know if his arm will ever be able to respond to the demanding pressure a pitcher's arm must undergo. So that's a much more negative prognosis.

Starting point is 00:29:45 Yeah. And late February, Dodgers owner, Walter O'Malley, another Walter says, we definitely need a starting pitcher. The return of Tommy John would obviously help. The story says, but the left-handers not come back from an operation on his pitching elbow as quickly as was hoped. We'd be kidding ourselves if we expected John to pitch immediately, said Walter Alston. And in March, you know, you're on the verge of the season, and Tommy John is still hoping and still waiting, but he was not back and they were not counting on him. And then we get to March 28th. We're on the eve of the season, and the headline is Tommy John out of Dodger plans.

Starting point is 00:30:24 The Dodgers announced that he was placed on the disabled list, and that made it official that he at least wouldn't start the season with the team. And then in April, he still hoped for a late. August return, so he was clinging to hope. The doctor said he thought it would be best if I didn't pitch, waited until next year. He was afraid of coming back too quick and doing more damage. He also told me the chances of my recuperation were 100% by waiting another year, but I figure I'll be back pitching by the end of August or early September. We're talking five months or so.

Starting point is 00:30:53 That's a long time. The Dodgers said, you're on your own. They told me to come back when I thought I was ready. I think I can pitch this season, which kind of hammers home that they were just feeling their way forward. It's not like there was an established protocol to return from Tommy John's surgery, so they didn't know how long it would take or how to rehab. This was uncharted territory. Mid-April, Tommy John hopes for a big comeback, but other people, Red Adams, Dodgers pitching coach, said, I'll be very surprised if Tommy John can pitch this year at all. If he just comes back and

Starting point is 00:31:24 pitches halfway decently next year, I'll be happy. Meanwhile, John himself was saying, if nothing goes wrong and I keep making the progress I've been making, I can get back by August. So I guess we see this today sometimes too, right, where maybe players are irrationally exuberant about how quickly they can come back and everyone else is like, yeah, I'm not so sure about that. So he said he was throwing every day. He was running a lot, miles a day. But he said, you know, he was trying to throw a sinking fastball to breed in, trying to get him to hit into a double play. And it just snapped.

Starting point is 00:31:57 I just straightened up and knew something. something bad had happened. There wasn't any sense in throwing anymore that day. Yeah, the, the descriptions always give you the hepy-jeebies of how it feels, feels to do that. But he was still optimistic. He said he was farther along than he thought he would be, but other people were doubting him. I'm not so sure, said Adams. Let's just say, I'm realistic, and Tommy's very optimistic. So, and then same time late April, he said, oh, it's coming along and, you know, I'm going to get back. And the elbow's fine. There's no pain. It's just he can't grip it right because of the nerves and everything.

Starting point is 00:32:32 I could throw batting practice right now, but I'm not ready to really cut loose. The doctors all agreed that the longer I can wait, the better chance I have of making it back all the way. He talked to Mike Marshall. Mike Marshall was somewhat skeptical, but Tommy John said, I'll do anything to stay in the big leagues, anything at all. And he said he had considered learning to throw a knuckleball to minimize the stress. And this attitude, I think this is why he deserves a lot of credit. Yeah. not just for being the guy, but also for having that attitude that I'll do it, I'll do whatever

Starting point is 00:33:02 it takes, and I have the confidence. Maybe other people would have just called it a career or given up or not been willing to go under the knife in that way. But he kept up his spirits, at least outwardly and publicly. And then late April, he was placed on the 60-day D.L. And it was said that he would probably miss the season. The Dodgers traded for Bert Houten to replace him. And Bert Houten was quite good replacing Tommy John. In June, there was a headline, Tommy John may be fooling himself and said, it's kind of pathetic in a way when you consider the pitcher he used to be, when you consider he may never pitch again that he was still like showing up and going through his routine and believing,

Starting point is 00:33:44 but he still retained his optimism, even as everyone around him was doubting him. and he was making $85,000 for the 1975 season when he wasn't pitching. And, you know, it was baby steps and the two fingers are better than before and they're not curved under anymore. And before they were numb and now I'm starting to feel pins and needles. And so progress. And it's described as radical surgery here. Dodgers VP Al Campanis said, this isn't charity paying John. It's a gamble he can pitch in 1976.

Starting point is 00:34:17 The odds on the gamble, they're pretty long. this is when radar guns were just coming in. And so, John became the radar gun guy. Tommy spends his working hours behind home plate pressing the button on that little blue $1,200 radar gun to clock the velocity of the pitchers and other moving objects. Did you know that the average peanut vendor travels three to four miles per hour as he walks down the aisle? He laughed.

Starting point is 00:34:38 Seriously, though, we are trying to discover the speed of the average Major League fastball. It's my idea that the average fastball travels around 85 miles per hour. At least that's what most of the guys on our staff are throwing. all these 100 plus numbers make good reading, but even a Nolan Ryan can't do that every pitch. The fastest guy I clocked this season was Tom Seaver. He had a high of 95 miles per hour. And John at the time was clocked at 78.

Starting point is 00:35:01 Of course, that first generation of radar guns measured the speed close to home plate after the pitch had slowed down some. Then there was an item in July that says that he is the highest paid batting practice pitcher in baseball. This says that he was earning $80,000 to throw BP while he was on the way back. and then also that month, Tommy John sees light at the end of the tunnel. So the eternal optimist. At that time in mid-July, Jimmy Wynn was watching Tommy John throw batting practice, and he said, damn, TJ, you got it back, man.

Starting point is 00:35:31 The article recounts that when he had the operation, and they took the tendon from his right forearm and put it in his left elbow, ever the humorist, immediately after the operation, Tommy wondered aloud, how will they list me as a left-hander or a right-hander? Yeah, I guess it's a bit of both. Then he tells his story somewhat dramatically. I knew all the talk and I knew what people were thinking. I know Walter and Peter O'Malley didn't think I could come back.

Starting point is 00:35:53 Neither did Walter Alston or Red Adams. I was the only one who thought I had a chance. Heck, even the doctors told me there was practically no chance. None of which was publicized at the time. Alston said he's come a long way. The only thing now is his control. If he can control the ball, he can pitch. So he jogged, he lifted weights, he jumped rope, he soaked the arm, he used a muscle stimulator.

Starting point is 00:36:12 And then a hand strengthening gadget designed by train. Bill Bueller. Tommy John works for day that may never come. He was still upset about the victim blaming that was going on. Anybody who says I was hurt throwing a fastball when it actually was a three-quarter speed sinker just doesn't know baseball. And anybody who says I was emotionally upset just doesn't know me. When the doctors told me it might be the end, that really shook me up. But now I feel more than ever I can come back. He was drawing on Luke chapter one verse 37 for inspiration, for with God, nothing is impossible. When he heard those words, he turned and whispered to his wife, Sally, that's going to be my verse.

Starting point is 00:36:49 Even then, in mid-July of 75, he was still projecting that he would be back that season by September. So he was just irrepressible in his optimism. But in August, come back clouded for John, right? And, hey, I've got this great idea. You could hold a great promotion. Guess the day Tommy John pitches again. Then Tommy John laughed and said, even I couldn't win that one. Yeah, sad.

Starting point is 00:37:14 And mid-September, seasons almost. over all eyes on Tommy John. It was announced that he would be returning to the mound, but not the Major League mound. He would be pitching in the Arizona Instructional League. So, yeah, they announced that he'd be pitching in instructs. And then he did. And that was the headline Tommy John pitches again late September, September 24th, 1975. He threw three innings on Tuesday in an instructional league game in what a Dodgers official called an outstanding performance. He pitched the first three innings against a farm team from the Angels and did not allow a hit. or a walk. It was an outstanding performance, whether it was in the instructional league or not,

Starting point is 00:37:50 said Al Campanis Dodgers Vice President. Tommy had good rhythm, velocity in control. He hit the corner as well. He made another start just the following week in Instructs, and that went well to, again, he pitched four innings this time, no runs and no hits. So he really was on the comeback trail. And so we're almost at the end here. October 1st. He was a Dodger again. He was reinstated to the 40-man roster. And October 31st, Tommy John is ready, was the headline that he was expected to be ready to start the season or start spring training. And he was clocked. His final pitches were clocked at 85 miles per hour, his fastest of the instructional league work.

Starting point is 00:38:33 Wow. Which, yeah, doesn't sound that impressive today, but different radar guns. Yeah. Yeah. And then November, 1975, Tommy John hopeful, when his arms. and hand were withered and atrophied. Teammates looked at the hand and wondered if Tommy would ever be able to lift a baseball with it, never mind curve it.

Starting point is 00:38:51 If he makes this, they should call him St. John, one of them confided. But after throwing 33 innings in instructs, he says, I feel like the bionic man. Maybe by next summer I'll be able to swat airplanes with it. The story ends, there isn't a manager in the league who does not wish if the graft of Tommy's tendon doesn't work. There was some way to graft Tommy's determination on somebody's arm. And then late December, he says, he grew a lot. Last baseball year, just watching. He was studying as he was watching from the

Starting point is 00:39:19 sidelines, and that he thought that would make him better. January 30th, the Dodgers got another good word about Tommy John's future, and this time it didn't come from John. Dr. James Stark, I guess a second opinion, wrote the Dodgers after examining the pitcher's left hand, which lost feeling and atrophied after elbow surgery, and said it's now as strong as his right. Off this letter and what we saw of Tommy in the Arizona Instructional League, Vice President Al Campana said we're optimistic that Tommy will. be pitching for us this season. Mid-February, Walter Alston said he was hopeful that Tommy John would come back and would help

Starting point is 00:39:51 replace Andy Methersmith, who had been a trailblazer, had been declared a free agent and left the Dodgers after pitching 300-some innings for them in 1975. A tough act to follow in big shoes to fill, but Tommy John's return helped. And then in March of 76, he signed a contract for 1976, even though he had been idle. They brought him back, something in the $50,000 range, so he did have to take a pay cut, but they wanted him. And then March 27th, he makes his spring training debut pitches against major leaguers for the first time in a game. It was a rough return, but he said all things considered, I thought I threw pretty good. However, he did give up a homer, two doubles and three singles and four innings, and Alston said, we won't judge him on one or two times out there,

Starting point is 00:40:38 but I don't know how long we can afford to go with him if he doesn't do well. In April 16th, it was reported that he finally was getting a starting assignment. It was, I think, the fifth game of the Dodgers season. And there had been a couple rainouts that delayed him when he was so close to coming back. He had to wait a little longer. Alston said he's had four or five outings this spring, and every time he has shown improvement. And then he came back. And the game stories ran on April 17th.

Starting point is 00:41:04 And it was spoiled a little bit by a Daryl Evans three-run Homer in the fifth, which John said was his one really bad pitch and it cost in the game. My control wasn't all I would have liked it to have been, but my arm felt great and I felt I was throwing some good pitches and everyone was heartened to have him back. And then, you know, that was it. He was back, you know, almost two years after he had had the injury. And people were saying, Tommy John, the model case. When he got hurt, the doctors, most of them took one look and shook their heads. What are you planning to do for a living now that baseball is out? They wanted to know quitting. John said, sure, I thought about it. I tried not to, but I couldn't help it. But finally, he found a doctor who didn't believe in the odds any more than he did. He underwent another operation. And what they did was perform a little miracle. And, you know, he was the hero. He was the guy who came back and never gave up. And his enthusiasm never flagged. And April 27th, he got a warm welcome when he made his Dodger Stadium return, got a standing ovation and everything. And then, And April 29th, he's making believers out of everybody.

Starting point is 00:42:13 Alston said, I don't know that much about medicine, but I'm sure the doctors would have been happy if his left arm had been strong enough for him to drink a cup of coffee. Although John had admitted to considering quitting, he then says, I never had any doubt I could pitch again. But those guys, they felt I was a little Pollyannish. They thought I was wasting my time. Even Job, he says, couldn't tell me whether I'd ever pitch again because that type of operation had never been performed before.

Starting point is 00:42:35 I knew it wasn't going to be easy, but I was going to give it every try. So that's how it went. And, you know, after the fact, he sort of says in this last piece, he couldn't tell me whether I'd ever pitch again because that type of operation had never been performed before. I knew it wasn't going to be easy, but I was going to give it every try. So after he actually made it back, he opened up a bit more about what the prognosis actually was at the time. Or I don't know if he was sort of remembering it that way or embellishing the story or whether he had just sort of hidden how dire. the prognosis was initially, and then when he actually made it back, he was more comfortable saying, yeah, actually, I didn't know I was going to be able to make it back at all. But he did,

Starting point is 00:43:18 and he triumphed, and that will be his greatest legacy. And sometimes I wonder whether the availability of Tommy John surgery makes pitchers more likely to throw Max effort and thus to tear their UCLs and need Tommy John surgery. But I'm not sure. Maybe the emphasis on speed would have happened anyway, and I would hate for pitchers to be without that treatment today, then the game would be in deep trouble. So every pitcher who undergoes that surgery now, obviously owes a deep debt to Frank Job. Let's not forget that. But also Tommy John for being the first in the line of fire and on that table. Yep, that's right. Quite a story. And it was another couple years before anyone else had Tommy John surgery because Job wanted to wait to see if it would stick, basically. So he waited a

Starting point is 00:44:07 couple of years and Brent Strom was actually the second guy to have it done. So it could have been, yeah, Brent Strom surgery, maybe. But he had it in 1980. And even then when Brent Strom had it, or I guess he had it in 78, but in a piece in 1980 about that surgery, it was already then called T.J. elbow surgery. So people were already calling it when the second guy had it. Yeah. And it didn't take long for it to be branded as Tommy John surgery. It was T.J. elbow surgery initially. And then when Bill Bordley had it in 1981, it was just straight up called Tommy John surgery. So the name stuck almost immediately. There you go.

Starting point is 00:44:46 That'll do it for the free preview of today's Effectively Wild. Thank you for listening. If you'd like to listen on and hear whatever wisdom and wit await, we would love to have you. You can visit patreon.com slash Effectively Wild to access the rest of this episode and plenty of other exclusive content. Weekly subscriber-only episodes, monthly bonus shows, our Discord group, our live streams. Either way, we will be back with another episode soon, which will appear in full on this feed. Until then, we wish you well, and thank you for your support of effectively wild, whatever form it takes.

Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2518: Dear John

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.