Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2519: The Secret Life of Walter

Episode Date: August 19, 2026

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the deepening monetary morass surrounding Mark Walter and whether it will eventually ensnare the Dodgers, the struggles of Edwin Díaz and Kyle Tucker, L.A.&...#8217;s incentive to try for a bye, the Dodgers’ and Mets’ offseason oopsies, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s heroics, the hot hitting of Denae Benites and the WPBL’s offensive environment, Joshua Báez and MLB’s debutant ball, Colt Emerson’s hidden hurt, the AL’s wild card mid-off, a four-team whirlwind for Jake Rogers, the longest team trade droughts, and more. Audio intro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme” Audio outro: Alex Glossman and Ali Breneman, “Effectively Wild Theme” Link to Walter Mitty wiki Link to Ben on Walter Link to Bloomberg on Walter Link to WSJ on Walter Link to Baker on Walter Link to Reuters on Walter Link to The Athletic on Walter Link to Chelsea shares story Link to Ohtani clause story Link to Walter tweet Link to more on Walter Link to Tucker/PCA tweet Link to one-day WAR Link to Opta/PCA fun fact Link to 1957 Power game Link to FG WAR leaderboard Link to Tucker miss 1 Link to Tucker miss 2 Link to Tucker home offense Link to Tucker road offense Link to Karros comment Link to BP on Tucker Link to Tucker in the dugout Link to Tucker and Ohtani Link to Tucker summary Link to Díaz IL story Link to Dodgers bye incentive Link to Sheehan on Stearns Link to Sam on Stearns Link to Ben on the Mets Link to WPBL leaderboard Link to WPBL RA9 Link to MLB RA9 Link to BP on WPBL offense Link to Benites wiki Link to BP on Benites Link to Benites MLB comps Link to Cade Skywalker Link to Simmons Mariners tweets Link to Emerson story 1 Link to Emerson story 2 Link to Nightengale on Wilson Link to Murphy’s hidden injury Link to Watchmen quote Link to Watchmen meme template Link to Ben on debutant batters Link to debutants spreadsheet Link to MLB Báez video Link to ESPN Báez video Link to Callahan triple video Link to Callahan triple story Link to Cobb/Irwin article Link to Paine on post-deadline confusion Link to FG playoff odds Link to post-deadline odds changes Link to wild card standings Link to Crizer on the AL standings Link to Rogers fun fact Link to Rogers feature Link to Rogers wedding story Link to trade droughts article Link to Atlanta-Philly trades Link to Cleveland-KC trades Link to Dodgers-Tigers trades Link to Red Sox-Yankees trades Link to fourth out wiki Link to Jaffe on John Link to Episode 1580 Stat Blast Link to Cubs-Cardinals game Link to Cubs-Nationals game Link to Hembekides clip Link to Hembekides graph Link to Wilson overturn Link to Yan tweet 1 Link to Yan tweet 2 Link to Burgos gamelogs Link to Burgos post  Sponsor Us on Patreon  Give a Gift Subscription  Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com  Effectively Wild Subreddit  Effectively Wild Wiki  Apple Podcasts Feed   Spotify Feed  YouTube Playlist  Facebook Group  Bluesky Account  Twitter Account  Get Our Merch! var SERVER_DATA = Object.assign(SERVER_DATA || {}); Source

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Hello and welcome to episode 2519 of Effectively Wild. Hello and welcome to episode 2519 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from FanGraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Bellenberg of The Ringer, joined by Meg Rally of Fangraphs. Hello, Meg. Hello. I was looking back at what I wrote when Mark Walter bought the Lakers, and I definitely did not nail it. I was not alone, but this is kind of a classic old takes exposed situation because I was asked by an NBA editor to contribute something, write a blurb for a staff post that we did for an immediate reaction to that sale because a lot of basketball people were wondering who's Mark Walter, they just weren't that familiar with him. And so I wrote a little bit about him from a baseball perspective, sort of, here's what you need to know.
Starting point is 00:01:14 here's a little primer on how his baseball ownership has gone. And so I wrote, If you're a basketball first fan who knows nothing about Mark Walter, don't feel bad. Most baseball first fans know nothing about Mark Walter, too, which is in itself something worth knowing. Walter is one of the least visible owners in MLB, which is quite an accomplishment,
Starting point is 00:01:34 considering that he owns one of its most visible franchises. The Dodgers may seem like supervillains at times, but Walter himself has escaped notoriety, which is just the way he wants it. and unfortunately for him no longer the way he has it. Then I talked a little bit about how he took over the Dodgers and their fortunes changed literally and also on the field and he raised payroll and then they've been on this incredible run.
Starting point is 00:01:59 Meanwhile, Walter has avoided the spotlight entrusting the team to president and CEO Stan Kasten, president of baseball operations, Andrew Friedman, manager Dave Roberts, and the public face of the ownership group who may be familiar to Lakers fans, that being Magic Johnson. And then I wrapped up with, thanks to the second apron,
Starting point is 00:02:16 even Walter's deep pockets can't give the Lakers the payroll advantage his baseball team enjoys. But the Dodgers' dominance extends to the team's entire infrastructure and brand, scouting, player development, analytics, marketing, continuity. Those qualities could transfer to the NBA, along with Walter's other tools. Continuity, clearly, a big hit with him and the Lakers. Walter is well-financed. He has ample multi-sport experience. He hires well.
Starting point is 00:02:40 He stays out of the way, aside from signing huge. checks, he isn't ancient by sports owner standards or evil by private equity billionaire standards. He also isn't active on Instagram. If you want your team's owner to become a character on an HBO show, Walter is the worst case scenario. If you want him to bring back the glory days of a storied franchise without bringing much attention to himself, he might be the best. He's already done it once. So, yeah, pretty much hit the nail on the head right there. That was really, really just perfect take by me. No notoriety, no impropriety, no visibility. Just keep a low profile, stay out of the way, and maintain continuity. That definitely describes the Mark Walter Lakers experience.
Starting point is 00:03:27 I guess what I would say, Ben, is that like there's the part of it that is suggestive, perhaps, of naivete of rich people. Your default mode should just be that it's not that they're not evil. It's that the evil hasn't been exposed yet. Right. And there's, there are going to be people who defy that understanding. But set yourself up so you're not disappointed, you know, is maybe the way to think about it. But I don't think that anything you wrote there was wrong in the moment apart from that potential naivete. Yeah, based on what we know or knew at the time, that was a few months before his plane was boarded and his phone was seized by federal agents. So how was I don't know what was happening.
Starting point is 00:04:11 But no, there was not a lot known about him, which was by design. That was sort of his brand to the extent that he had one, was billionaire who just doesn't make waves and doesn't make headlines and is reticent in general. And now, obviously, he's getting a whole lot of publicity that he didn't care for. So I've been catching up on Mark Walter Lohr and reading a lot about him and the scrambling that he is doing these days. and my colleague Katie Baker wrote a piece for the ringer this week about that, which I will link to. But we're now at the point where you have to wonder at what point the Dodgers will get involved in all of this. Because not only did he flip the Lakers in about 72 hours, which doesn't exactly suggest we are not in crisis currently. But also it was reported that he and Dodgers minority owner, Todd Bowley, are in talk.
Starting point is 00:05:07 to sell their shares in Chelsea because, you know, he's in everything, right? The WNBA team, the Sparks in L.A. He owns the professional women's hockey league. I mean, he's everywhere, right? But now that he has sold the Lakers, he is maybe divesting from Chelsea,
Starting point is 00:05:26 you wonder whether the Dodgers will be next. And I know that we brought up this possibility briefly the other day, but this smoke just kind of keeps getting thicker and there's maybe some fire underneath there. And he is liquidating and trying to stay ahead of creditors and agents. And so I do wonder when this will come to the Dodgers door, if ever. Well, and it has profound implications for them, right?
Starting point is 00:05:55 Because his ownership stake in the team is part of Otani's contract, isn't it? Yes, it's true. Well, he has that key man clause so that he can opt out or. avoid the rest of his contract if Andrew Friedman or Mark Walter departs. And we have gotten to the point of people reporting on whether Otani would exercise the keyman clause. Sam Blum and Stephen Nesbitt of the athletic reported that Otani would not opt out if Walter were to leave or sell according to sources. And I guess that is probably the case because what motivation really would Otani have to do that now?
Starting point is 00:06:36 I mean, even if Walter were to announce tomorrow that he was selling, would he really be that motivated given that things have worked out about as well as they could have for Otani thus far with the Dodgers? He's won back-to-back championships of L.A. seems to give him everything he needs, proximity to Japan and tons of endorsements. And unless the entire front office were destroyed and, you know, I guess it depends. Like, I don't know how long he is able to trigger that clause. Like, can he just opt out at any point? Or would he have to, is it a one-time thing? Okay, if Walter leaves, then you now have an opportunity,
Starting point is 00:07:15 but you can't do it years down the road if things don't go great or something. I would assume that it's kind of a one-time thing. But, yeah, what motivation would he have to do it unless he thinks that the grass is actually greener somewhere else? And I don't know why he would necessarily look around right now and say, even if Walter weren't there anymore, that I'd be better off going somewhere else, unless all the reporting about how he sort of sold himself short, or at least the Dodgers are making money hand over fist on that deal, because as much as they pay him or will eventually have to pay him or put aside an escrow, etc.,
Starting point is 00:07:52 they're just making so much in marketing and branding and everything that it more than pays for itself. So unless he did want to maximize dollars, but he's had the opportunity to do that multiple times, and he has passed it up. So I don't see why he would start now. Yeah, and I don't think that Otani is in any danger of denying himself, you know, generational wealth, right? He's already secured that,
Starting point is 00:08:15 but it's not like the money train is set to turn off, run off the tracks. What would a money train do? Gravy train would run out of gravy. Yeah, a spigot would be turned off maybe, yeah, a faucet, but a train might derail. Right, derail. And I guess, you know, in theory, a gravy train could also derail. It would be messier, but it's not like there's anything that prevents the gravy from spilling out.
Starting point is 00:08:42 All of that to say, I can't imagine him having much in the way of motivation to leave. And you're right that the timing of it, you know, even setting aside the motivation piece, I imagine would matter because even Otani is probably not keen. to try to navigate a complex labor negotiation right before the CBA expires. And I would say it might come together more slowly, except the Lakers case just came out of nowhere and suddenly the deal was done. So it's not as if we would necessarily get a ton of notice. And Walter is also, he's putting up as collateral, his equity stake in Guggenheim partners.
Starting point is 00:09:24 Right. And because he's trying to secure these loans, he's trying to raise billions of dollars, quickly because he is in this hot water. Yeah. And it does keep getting worse. Like Walter's Delaware life has restated its investments. I mean, basically, no, right? I can tell you, when they have to do a restatement, that's generally not a good sign.
Starting point is 00:09:49 Yeah. You know better than I as someone with more of a finance background. But these insurance companies, which were subpoenaed in February, and then they reclassified billions of dollars of loans to show that they were tied to Walter's other business. And then they said some of it was. And then actually a lot of it was. So Delaware wife is up to now like 40% of their total invested assets, like $18 billion up from 3% or $1.3 billion. So it's not great.
Starting point is 00:10:19 And it's nice to be in a position, I guess, where you quickly have to come up with many billions of dollars. You're just like, well, which of my many. Just sell. Yeah. Just my enormous portfolio of assets, which ones, you know, boy, it sure stinks to have to trade the Dodgers to get myself out of hot water here, or the Lakers. And evidently, even after the Lakers sale, maybe he needs another $5 billion or so just to recoup and to get even. It's a lot of money. I would be able to do fine with $1 billion.
Starting point is 00:10:53 I'm confident that I could scrimp and save. I could figure that out. I think I could figure out half a billion dollars, you know? Yeah. I think half a billion dollars would secure to me, whichever Zillow emotional support property I'm, you know, able to sort of ogle in any given moment. I think I could do okay.
Starting point is 00:11:13 What's up with these guys, you know? What's up with these? What's up with that? He also owns an F1 team. That's part of his sports portfolio as well. So, yeah, this is, it's getting pretty dicey. And there were, as Katie flagged, in her piece, there were questions or concerns about how he had as much money as he did.
Starting point is 00:11:33 And a lot of it was chalked up to, well, he's just sort of secretive and he doesn't talk about things and he keeps it close to the vest. But actually, perhaps some of the suspicion about, wait, how did he accrue all of this money quite so quickly? Well, maybe he was cutting some corners. Maybe there was a little bit of self-dealing going on. Maybe there was some fraudulent accounting happening. So who knows, this is all very much developing. But Stan Kasten, the Dodgers president's CEO, tried to tamp down any concerns about this affecting the Dodgers and said, this is a Lakers story, it's not really a Dodgers story. It really has nothing to do with the Dodgers. They're completely separate, so there are no changes here.
Starting point is 00:12:13 I mean, yeah, that might be true for now, but this is all happening quite quickly. And a lot of the problem here is that so many of Walters' assets and entities were interminglinglingling. in sort of suspicious ways. And so it's hard to say whether, oh, the Dodgers actually do stand alone and there are no ties to anything else shady happening here. Right. I mean, I think that, like, one of the takeaways here in case folks are, I don't think we need to worry about, like, the solvency of the Dodgers themselves.
Starting point is 00:12:50 I do think, though, that it seems like maybe, maybe this guy's up to no good, you know, Seems like allegedly he's up to no good. Yes, there does seem to be a bit of house of cards going on here, or at least he was overextended. It's just, yeah, people kind of raised red flags at the time because when he bought the Dodgers, he was outbidding a lot of deep-pocketed people and Steve Cohen was interested. And so how did this guy come up with the cash?
Starting point is 00:13:17 And it didn't seem like his net worth actually supported that. And so there was a lot of paper value going on there. And that's why he's scrambling. to get some liquidity now by offloading all of these billions of dollar assets. So we'll see if this eventually encompasses the Dodgers. It might not. And even if it does, the Dodgers themselves might be fine, independent of Walter. But if you're a Dodgers hater who's sort of grasping its draws for how could this all come collapsing down,
Starting point is 00:13:48 well, now there is at least a more plausible scenario that is based on sort of how the team is funded, that doesn't require waiting a dozen years for the TV deal to expire. But I guess there are more short-term concerns about the Dodgers play on the field and potential weaknesses with that roster that could stress you out if you're a Dodgers fan. Not that Dodgers fans should really be stressed about anything in the grand scheme of things. But they have a losing record since the trade deadline. They got swept by the Cubs coming out of the deadline. They lost the series to the Diamondbacks.
Starting point is 00:14:24 then they swept the Royals. But then this past weekend, they dropped three of four to the Brewers, which had to feel pretty good for Milwaukee, because Logan Henderson, whom they held on to, he outduled Terek Scoobel. So who needs that Terek Scoobel? Not the Brewers. They took three out of four.
Starting point is 00:14:41 Yeah. And now the Dodgers are playing the Rockies, which generally goes pretty well for them. Yeah, that does so. Yeah, they've had some weaknesses. And look, they'll be fine. They're the Dodgers. But I do think that we always say,
Starting point is 00:14:54 they're just kind of biting their time until October. And there's some truth to that. But I do think that they can't afford to completely take their feet off the pedal because it does actually, or at least a foot off the pedal. I know how driving works. I'm not convinced of that. Maybe you were talking about a bicycle. That's true. I can't operate those.
Starting point is 00:15:16 But I think they have some motivation to win. I know their perception is just they got to get to October and then they'll have their healthy super rotation. And that may very well be true, and they may sail through like they did last year. I mean, that wasn't exactly smooth sailing, but they made it through. But they have some incentive to get that buy. It's not like the buy is meaningless to them. I know that they didn't get the buy last year, and they just steamrolled right over the reds. But you can't count on that happening.
Starting point is 00:15:46 Like, I know that the playoff odds are pretty unperturbed by the possibility that they might have to play in that wildcard series. but if they had to, and right now, as we speak here on Tuesday afternoon, I think they have the second best record in the NL behind the Brewers, but they're a game ahead of the Braves. And so if they don't finish ahead of the Brewers or the Braves or even the Cubs are only a couple of games back, if they don't have one of the number one or two seeds, they'd be facing a better opponent than last year's Reds this time.
Starting point is 00:16:19 Because they'd probably have to face the Phillies, in which case you're going up against Sanchez and Wheeler. Right. Best of three. I mean, or the Padres. I've been a little bit better of late. Yeah, Padres kind of on the come-up. Yeah, Padres are rolling since Preller bought at the deadline,
Starting point is 00:16:37 and they've got that great bullpen and at least a little more competent pitching, starting pitching these days. So it's not just like, yeah, that's a formality. We're just going to roll right over that wild card opponent. So you could get too complacent. And if that really is their mindset that the regular season is just a warm-up, yeah, but you can't take it so easy that you miss out on a buy, because that could really come back to buy-to you. Bye-ju. I agree. I don't think that what is happening with L.A. right now is indicative of complacency. I guess that's important to say. I don't think they're like, I'll just phone it in. But I think you're right that the idea that they can just just. coast and not worry about it would be, you know, certainly mistaken, particularly because you do want
Starting point is 00:17:27 your injured guys to have as much time as possible to come back. And it's not just the pitching. Like, the pitching has been the most high profile component here. And they're set to start getting some guys back and... Yeah, Snell's back. Whatever might have happened over a couple of starts. Like, I think Scoobo's pretty good. Yonimo's pretty good. I do think right now in terms of how they're pitching, you could maybe make an argument. at the Yamamoto is their number one. But anyway, like,
Starting point is 00:17:53 they have that impressive group, but there is, like, a gaping maw at catcher for them right now. Like, the, the biggest positional issue they have at the moment is the fact that, like,
Starting point is 00:18:04 Smith is still not back, and who knows kind of what state he will be in when he returns. And then they're down, Dalton rushing, who, it sounds like, will probably be able to return in a hitting capacity
Starting point is 00:18:18 before he can catch. If he's able to catch, again. And so, you know, these were lower profile moves on deadline day, but like, there's a reason they went out and reacquired Hunter Feducia. And why can't I ever think of that other guy's name? Penny Biceps? Ben Rortred. Yeah, Ben Wirtbett. Penny Biceps. Leave it in because I've been, I'm delighted to be reminded of benebyseps. Ben Rortvett. He sounds like he should be in a Thor comment. Ben Rortvett. But, like, that's their catching. random right now is like those you guys. That seems that seems suboptimal. And granted, you can stomach bad offense catcher, although neither of those guys are defensive standouts.
Starting point is 00:19:03 So that's sort of a bummer. And it's not like there aren't potent bats in their lineup, but like that's the weakest positional group they have right now. I think it'll be fine, but I think it is better for them if they are able to secure a buy. You're right to note that our projections are relatively unperturbed from a playoff odds perspective. And even with their recent spoon, like we project the Dodgers to be like a meaningfully better team than the Brewers just from an underlying roster perspective.
Starting point is 00:19:31 But you still got to get there. You got to win the games. And the, you know, the playoff odds are going to be a little slow to respond to some of that stuff just because of how good the underlying roster projects. So, you know, I wouldn't be worried, but I would be paying attention, you know. I would be paying attention if I were a Dodger. I wonder which is more concerning. Hunter fiducius' role or Walter's possible fiduciary self-dealing? That's a very clever little joke, and even though I'm not a lawyer, I feel comfortable saying that the answer is obvious.
Starting point is 00:20:03 Yeah, the only thing, even if Walter were removed from the picture, maybe the Dodgers would keep printing money without him, but they have gotten themselves into a situation where they do have to keep splurging to keep this train on the rails. because they're old. Sure. And some of those guys are declining. And when they do spend a lot of money on someone who does not deliver great returns, as has happened in a couple of cases this year, they end up in a situation where they do kind of have to keep acquiring. You know, they're like a shark.
Starting point is 00:20:39 Like they need the oxygen going over their gills. They have to be swimming. And so they have to kind of keep adding, especially if they keep trading, Now, they may have enough prospects that they could just promote them if they actually decided to or needed to. But what is often how they operate is they just kind of someone gets old or cycles out and then they go sign or trade for some other big established veteran superstar, which keeps working until those guys get old or until you stop spending to replace them with new superstar. So you could imagine a situation where it all just comes crumbling. Walter leaves. Otani triggers his claws because he sees which way the wind is blowing.
Starting point is 00:21:22 Oh, this team's getting old. And maybe I'd better go somewhere else. And then it all just falls apart. But that's very likely not going to happen. It's just slightly more conceivable than it was until recently. Will Smith supposedly maybe could begin a rehab assignment next week. So he would be the savior of that position. and maybe he'll ride to the rescue by the time October rolls around anyway.
Starting point is 00:21:46 Perhaps. Two of those high-profile signings, though, that I just alluded to. So the Dodgers have gotten a combined zero war from Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz this season, which is pretty incredible. Definitely didn't see that coming. Diaz obviously missed much of the year after his elbow surgery. He's back and has immediately made Dodgers fans wish that he would maybe go back on the IL because he has like a 12-a-R-A.
Starting point is 00:22:14 And Dave Roberts, as is his way, keeps running him out there, trying to restore confidence. And I do wonder, when you have a closer like that, who has the big, you know, the trumpets and the narco and all of that, when that guy's struggling in that role,
Starting point is 00:22:29 do you keep doing the trumpets and the light show just, again, as a show of confidence? Because you can't retire the light show, the big entrance theme. I wonder which ends first. like he gets demoted from the closer role or he gets demoted from the big entrance song. Because at some point, you'd probably feel self-conscious. If you'd been struggling a lot, if you were Diaz, you might not even want the fanfare.
Starting point is 00:22:54 You might not want the human cry because it's like, I haven't earned this lately. I don't deserve this right now. But then are you conceding something? Yeah, maybe. Closers, short memories. Got to have them. I don't know what the right answer to that is. I do not have the, the.
Starting point is 00:23:11 sort of constitution required to be a closer. That's the only thing separating me from the role, to be clear. I struggled to relate to, I'm not trying to be a scold, I promise. I just don't find relatable the ostentatious display of the closer entrance, regardless of the guy, candidly, which isn't to say that I don't enjoy them when I get to watch them. I just feel very nervous on behalf of the individual involved. But I don't know. I don't know what, the right answer is there. I don't know if you just have to say, like, the only way out is through. And so I'm going to keep doing my routine. I have confidence in my ability to sort of course correct and write the ship. Maybe folks will give me a pass because I did deal with, you know, really
Starting point is 00:23:59 intense injury this year. I don't know. I don't know what the right answer is on that one. Tucker has no answers now either. I mean, he has been in a bad way of late. And I know there's been a lot of focus on his home road splits and the significance therein. And he has a 126 WRC plus away from Dodger Stadium, which is not great, but is good. If he had that overall, people would probably be satisfied. But he has a 60 WRC plus at home. And he is really just going through a rough time seemingly psychologically, as far as you can tell from afar. He's over his past five games. He's misplay just dropped
Starting point is 00:24:42 a couple of balls in right field. The most recent game was at chorus, and he took an over there as well, and also dropped another just pretty routine pop-up in right field, and actually the cameras caught him gesticulating, like, offering his glove
Starting point is 00:24:58 to Otani, as if to say, you want to go out there? And I wish he would, because I'd like to see that, but also that is perhaps indicative of just how down Tucker is. And he had actually been hitting a little bit better, and I thought he was kind of putting it together and getting hot,
Starting point is 00:25:16 and then just sank into this funk, and the body language is bad, and the quotes are bad, and the quotes about him are bad. And he seems like he's in need of one of those sort of Sayas Suzuki-style resets. Just, you know, give him a week off or something, give him a series, just let him regroup in some way. Well, and they have been kind of taking him out of the lineup on occasion lately.
Starting point is 00:25:45 Yeah, yeah. Yeah, but maybe more of a sustained down period just to get his bearings again. Because, I mean, he's getting booed pretty mercilessly in L.A. And then seems to be taking it to the field and also to Colorado. So, yeah, he just has a hunted downcast air to him. now, which, you know, I'm not as much of a body language reader and doctor as my boss, Bill Simmons. But he does not look pleased. He does not look happy. He does not look like he's having fun out there right now. Do you want to do the rest of the segment as Bill and see how he feels about it?
Starting point is 00:26:24 I'm sorry, we're talking about baseball. So Bill wouldn't be interested in that. I get to make my little jokes. I'm not wrong. He's been a bit more into baseball lately because the Red Sox have been over. There's a correlation there. I understand how this works. I don't know how to account for it. I agree with you that he being Kyle Tucker, not Bill Simmons, seems to be in a real bad way. I would have thought given, and I know that some of the worst of his play
Starting point is 00:26:52 has corresponded with this recent skid, and so perhaps that's just the answer, right? But I would have thought that if I were a fan of a, you know, a team that has already won 75 games and is leading its division. by eight games. At this point, you know, I know there's been fluctuation there. I would perhaps be like, wow, this guy seems like he's going through it,
Starting point is 00:27:13 but good thing we have all these other good hitters, we don't need to give Kyle Tucker the business. I sound like a scold again, and I don't mean to. I'm not necessarily faulting them, although we've established we're not booing people. You know, we're just not into that. I'm surprised that the force of it has been so strong. I would have thought just the general disposition of the team
Starting point is 00:27:36 relative to certainly its division, as I said, and even the rest of the NL, despite their spoon, would have bought him some time. It doesn't seem like it's from lack of care. Maybe he just needs a maybe he just needs like an affect switch. I
Starting point is 00:27:52 want it to go better for him because I can't say that he looks like Kickabod Crane and kind of make fun of how he looks while he's playing this badly and obviously in distress, because that would be unkinds. But it's strange to me that there would be such an obvious and profound split.
Starting point is 00:28:09 It's not like, at least from like a home run perspective, it's not like Dodger Stadium is such a terrible part for a left-handed hitter. Yeah, I don't know. I wouldn't make much of it, if not, for all this other baggage and his seeming to be burdened by the expectations of it and the market and everything. Yes, it sure seems like, I mean, it's obviously affecting him in a way that makes me ascribe a greater sort of weight to it than I otherwise would, because, you know, guys go through bad seasons.
Starting point is 00:28:40 They go through bad half seasons. They go through bad, you know, or protracted adjustments. There might be, you know, we, this makes me think that he's fully healthy, though, because if he were hurt and playing like this, I think they would have let us know by now. I think that they would have told us, hey, yeah, it's a real shame, but he's got a nagging whatever. And he tends to have nagging whatever. Yeah, that's often been the issue with him. is that he'll have a fantastic half season
Starting point is 00:29:07 and then he'll get hurt. And so if he could put together those fantastic half seasons, he'd have a fantastic whole season. But as it is, he has not been hurt, but he has been hurting the team or at least not helping the team. Hurting the team is so strong.
Starting point is 00:29:20 It is, but 0.3 war that's on the season. Pekker Armstrong had 0.5 war yesterday in one game. Yeah. One game by PCA, he outdid Kyle Tucker's full season value. It's really something. something, you know? And it makes you realize, it's not like he's a bat only guy, but it's like there's, it's really about the bat with him, you know? It's really about the bat. The defense isn't
Starting point is 00:29:46 going to do it for you. It's not normally as catastrophic as it has seemed lately. But I, I just think this, you know, this is an extreme opposite example of why I tend to be a little less inclined to dismiss the notion of like how the psychology of it or how you feel about it, your confidence to the plate, like the way that these things can manifest and matter. Because clearly, like, things are getting worse for him as he is seemingly. And again, I don't want to be a body language expert. But when you're gesturing at your famous DH-only guy to come in and play the field, like clearly you feel away about what's going on with you.
Starting point is 00:30:29 Yeah. Yeah, I don't know what you, what do you do to give this guy a real reset? Like, do you fan of my LM and so he could go like on a rehab assignment and get right somewhere? Like, what's the, what's their plan? Maybe that position is cursed. You know, we talked a lot. I don't believe in curses, but I keep bringing them up. We talked in the, in the off season about one way of thinking about both his signing and Diaz's,
Starting point is 00:30:55 which, you know, I guess don't do signing so that you aren't annoyed because you'll just be annoyed. by something else. But it was like, hey, you want to make sure that you never have to watch, say, Oscar Hernandez play the right field again? Well, go get Kyle Tucker. That's a luxury way of dealing with that annoyance. But then... Yeah, I think Eric Carrow suggested on the Dodgers broadcast that they should just send him to
Starting point is 00:31:16 the complex or something for a while to figure things out, which is not great when someone's saying that in that context. But I get it, given how he's gone. And maybe if the Dodgers were firing on all cylinders, otherwise, he could kind of escape notice and condemnation to some extent, but the other struggles have magnified his own. This is why I was like, well, I should account for the fact that it has seemingly corresponded with a broader spoon. So maybe there is just less margin for error. There's more frustration. You're not going to, can't boo the injured guys. So who are you going to boo? You're going to
Starting point is 00:31:50 boo the expensive outfielder who's not playing particularly well. Yeah. And the Dodgers getting zero combined war out of those two high profile acquisitions. the top reliever on the market and the top player on the market, at least according to the perception at the time, that's some pretty lousy off-seasoning by Andrew Friedman, I guess, in retrospect, it's surprising to me that they've gotten that little out of it. But that has almost escaped notice, both because the Dodgers are good anyway, and also because maybe the Mets off-season was even worse. I saw a couple people point this out. Sam was posting about this the other day, this was a few days ago, but he said, I think it's pretty remarkable that the Mets
Starting point is 00:32:33 spent their offseason adding each significant major leaguers, collectively making $137 million this season who have combined for negative 0.2 war. And preceding that post by Sam was Joe Sheehan in his newsletter, writing David Stern simply had one of the worst off seasons of any sports executive ever. His seven big additions in free agency and trade have combined for negative. of .6 baseball reference were while making $62 kajillion, which was not an exact amount. I guess Sam had the precise figure there.
Starting point is 00:33:05 But however you slice it, hyperbole not required, because that is kind of an incredible, just striking out on pretty much every single major move you made. And I can only second guess to an extent, because even though I've raised the alarm that, boy, teams that really remake their rosters to this extent, they often underperform a bit, I still thought that they had added enough talent that they would be okay, that they would be a better team. And they actually weirdly have been better since the trade deadline for whatever reason. But yeah, that was, that was quite a failure by Stearns, who was kind of, it's like Walter was almost the model of a sports franchise owner and now is suddenly approaching disgrace. And Stearns was really the model of a GM slash Pobo executive.
Starting point is 00:33:58 I mean, he was the coveted guy that the Mets brought in. And now his reputation is pretty tarnished thus far. When I went to Sloan's first game, when we took her to that game when the Dodgers were in town recently, as we were leaving, there was a quite profane chant in the stairwell pertaining to sterns that I was glad that she did not ask me to explain the words that were being used or the import of the message. But, yeah, it was not a, you know, kids are around watch your words kind of crowd at that time. But, yeah, the fan base has been quite upset about that. But it's true. I don't know how to quantify worst pobo performances exactly. But it's up there.
Starting point is 00:34:40 So the Dodgers may have whiffed on those two top targets. But the Mets may be whiffed even more and also have not been a good team. When you think about the Dodgers part of it, in comparison and maybe in conversation with the Mets off season moves. Like this performance from Tucker is truly bizarre. And I think that there were concerns as maybe too strong, but part of why there was an expectation that he might sort of underperform, even as the top guy on the market,
Starting point is 00:35:13 some of the other top guys of recent years was that he didn't seem like a completely sure thing, right, that the injury piece of it was clouding what, not what his true talent level was, but people were adjusting for that and saying, hey, not only do you have this injury component that you have to account for, but you also need to be sure that you're not being bamboozled
Starting point is 00:35:34 by a half season, right? And so there's a reason he ended up signing the deal that he did. There's some amount of assumed risk that was built into the market, and teams were just like, we're not going to give you $300 million or whatever. But I don't think anyone thought he'd be like this, right? like I didn't think he would be like this.
Starting point is 00:35:52 He seemed like the obvious top guy. And there have been stretches where he's played like an MVP. And I was like, he'll be good, you know? And he answers a, again, luxury need for them. The D.S stuff, like, first of all, relievers are always prone to some amount of fluctuation. He has had health stuff in the past. There have been stretches where he hasn't been good. That seemed like a riskier move.
Starting point is 00:36:16 And it just seems like an area of roster construction where they have a certain amount of baked in risk tolerance, although if Tanner Scott is any indication, anyone Diaz will be amazing next year, and everyone will forget about this. The Mets stuff, I don't know, it's interesting because their willingness to let Diaz go
Starting point is 00:36:34 indicates that there's some amount of good self-scouting going on, right? Like, they had an understanding of that guy, perhaps, that is to their credit. They seem to have gotten a lot of other stuff wrong, even at the time,
Starting point is 00:36:51 we were like, this is a weird, this put together weird, you know, the way that this roster is put together is weird, even though, sure, it seemed reasonable that, like, Jorge Polanco would be able to learn how to play for space. Of course, like, how hard can it be? But there was a lot of that. There was a lot of, like, your guys are going to be out of position. A lot of these guys are pretty old. And then they were. And then they were old and they were hurt. And you never want to completely, like, blame an executive for the fact that guys get hurt because guys do just get hurt, but also, like, you know, some of these guys are old and you're asking them to play out of position. Maybe they're going to be more inclined to getting hurt. Yeah. I don't know if you even can credit the Mets for letting Diaz leave, because it seemed like they were somewhat perturbed that he had left, at least according to the reporting at the time, they offered him $66 million, and the Dodgers offered a few million more, but the Mets had at least signaled some willingness that they might be willing to go higher, according to Steve Cohen, I think it was at the time.
Starting point is 00:37:54 They didn't know why Diaz didn't come back to the Mets for a counter. So, I mean, maybe he just wanted to go to the Dodgers. So it wasn't so much that they just sat on their hands and said, yeah, we're happy to let him leave as it was that the Dodgers just came hard after him. Wow. I tried to give the Mets a little credit. I tried. You were like, no.
Starting point is 00:38:15 They're losers. Yeah. Anyway, not great. And I know people get more than enough Dodgers talk. But look, this edition of Dodgers talk was about bad news for the Dodgers and Dodgers' dougerism and downerism. So maybe that was a refreshing change of pace at least. Maybe.
Starting point is 00:38:35 Yeah. I mean, speaking of Mets'Wifts, PCA in that game, so he had this incredible game. He hit a couple homers, as did Otani in his game to try to keep pace. But PCA had the heroics. where he hit the lead-off homer and also the walk-off homer, and Optostats had the stat that he was the first player to hit a home run on the first pitch his team saw and the last pitch his team saw in a game
Starting point is 00:39:06 since, of course, Vic Power did it for the Kansas City A's against the Orioles on May 7, 1957. And I don't know even how they queried that because that's before pitch-by-pitch data, so I'm sort of surprised that Vic Power even showed up in their database there. But there have been other guys who had leadoff homers and walkoff homers in the same game. But first pitch and last pitch makes it even cooler. And he went 30-30 in that game. I mean, he stole some bases.
Starting point is 00:39:36 Like he might still have time to get to 40-40. I think the first time we brought up, hey, PCA sure seems to have solidified a lead in the war race, at least, if not the MVP race, it still seemed to be a minority position that he was the leader when it came to an L MVP favorite. But now, and, you know, it's not like Otani has bowed out of this race either. And he did keep pace with the multi-homer game on Monday. But he is a full winner more behind PCA now. And I have heard more and more people suggesting, oh, yeah, this is PCA's award to lose. So that seems to be catching on as it shows.
Starting point is 00:40:18 should because PCA has been playing that well. So, yeah, I don't know. I think, you know, if you look at the prediction markets and everything, which I try not to for the most part, but sometimes just to assess, okay, what are people thinking, you know, it's either that or I guess looking at betting odds or something, which it's a distinction without much of a difference anyway. But it appears to be kind of a coin flip now, at least in terms of whom people expect to win that award.
Starting point is 00:40:48 And there's still time, obviously. There's more than a month left in the season. And Otani could come back as a pitcher and pat his stats a little toward the end there, maybe. But, yeah, PCA has just been fantastic. It's funny because when his upswing started, it was like, and he walks now. And it's like that is part of the story. And an important one seems to be underselling the improvement that we have witnessed in his game. So, yeah, it's a pretty special thing.
Starting point is 00:41:17 I don't know. I think first and last, there's something so, like, narratively satisfying about that. Were we trailblazers? Were we ahead of the curve like that? I just, I assumed not. Maybe. I don't know. In the national media, I'll take it. But no, I'm sure we were not the first to suggest that PCI was having an MVP-type season. But we have definitely been documenting that. And he reminds us of it every day. You know, if the Dodgers need some catching help, perhaps they should sign Deney Benitez from the WPBL because she has been on an incredible tear that I just wanted to highlight for a second here. She is hitting in seven games and 30 plate appearances for the New York Heights, 769 with a 767 on base, I guess, which at that point when your average is that high, your OBP is that high by default. And a 16-15 slugging percentage. She has hit seven homers in the seven games. And she has been by far the best hitter in the league,
Starting point is 00:42:24 although Kelsey Whitmore is coming up fast. And I just wanted to look at what a span of 30 plate appearances that good. That's a 2382 OPS over a span of 30 plate appearances. And Deney Benitez, she's fun what I've watched of her. She is quite magnetic. She is in banana ball. She has been a staple on the U.S. women's national team for quite some time. She's 24.
Starting point is 00:42:52 She was the sixth overall pick in the league, but she has been the best player. Those kind of offensive stats as a catcher, no less. So I asked Michael Mountain frequent stateless correspondent to look for better spans of 30 plate appearances in MLB history. And so he was able to go back using the retrosheet data since 19. and look for any 30 plate appearance spans that exceeded Denei Benitez's 2382 OPS. And it turns out if you remove repeats and duplicates where the same player had different overlapping spans of 30 plate appearances, 11 players have put up a superior OPS over a span of 30 played appearances.
Starting point is 00:43:36 Number one being, who else, Barry Bonds, from April 16th, 2004 to April 24, to April 24 He had a 2938 OPS. That was just when he could not be retired. Wow. Then Babe Ruth in 1921, Mike Schmidt, 1977, Ted Williams, 1957, Sean Green 2002, Vic Wirtz, different Vic, not power, but Wirtz. We need to bring back Vicks, I think. That was in 1950.
Starting point is 00:44:08 Kristen Yelich in 2018, Adrian Gonzalez, 2014. Willie Mays, 1958. Ken Williams, not Kenny Williams, but the OG Ken Williams in 1920 and Big Mac, Mark McGuire, in 1997. So those are the only 11 players who have had superior 30-plate appearance spans in the past, you know, 116 years or so of Major League history. So it's quite a heater for Denei Benitez. So really, could she be that much worse than Hunter Fuducia and Ben Wartfit? I don't know. maybe, but maybe they should try.
Starting point is 00:44:46 Anyway, that's been fun to watch. Now, I guess the 11 players I just named check there, they didn't have metal bats. So that is one advantage that Denebenitez has. I have been wondering, because the offense in the WPBL, it is very much a hitter's league thus far. And that's partly maybe because of a lack of pitching and pitching development, but also does help. that you're allowed to use composite bats and metal bats. And the bats have been booming thus far. So the average runs per game in the WPBL is 7.5, but that's seven inning games.
Starting point is 00:45:30 So it might be better to go with, well, ERA, the ERA there is over 7, 7.29. Every team has really been raking except the Boston Hunters formerly managed and briefly by Keith Fulke. And the league as a whole is allowing 9.8 runs per 9. And in MLB this year, the league-wide RA9 is 4.55. So scoring is more than twice as high on a per inning basis in the WPBL thus far compared to MLB. And yeah, just the games that I've watched, those pitchers are really getting tattooed. sometimes, sometimes literally in some cases, but also they are getting hit very hard.
Starting point is 00:46:17 So I don't know, I don't know whether that's how much of it's the metal bats and how much of it is the pitching and the hitting and everything. But it is, it's very, very inflated offensive environment, perhaps too much. I know fans like scoring and they like action and everything, but they don't love it, I think, when it looks like people are kind of taking batting practice out there. Yeah. So I don't know. Maybe they should dial down the metal bats or something if the league continues beyond this season. Yeah, I think that it might be of them to sort of rethink and maybe just even dial in what the ideal offensive environment even is for the league. I suspect that they were perhaps worried about like the worst most bad faith operators being like, look,
Starting point is 00:47:09 these girls who can't even score, but that doesn't mean that you can't overcorrect, right? And that's me speculating to be clear. But I do think that like having some intentionality around what you think the ideal level is and then going from there because, you know, they use composite bats in college. They use metal bats. And there are years where the offensive environment is crazy and has been pretty wild lately. But also years where they've dialed in something a little less extreme. So it probably would be good to think about that for next year. Well, I've enjoyed the Deney Benitez experience regardless. But yes, I guess if we were to OPS plus this 2382 OPS, it might not look quite as spectacular as the raw OPS does because of the league
Starting point is 00:47:58 offensive environment. But nonetheless, a pretty impressive start. And number one overall pick and former Sonoma Stomper, Kelsey Whitmore, just had the first three homer game in the the league. So her numbers are coming up too. And also having a three homer game this past weekend, of course, was Joshua Baez of the Cardinals. And maybe maybe that's the remedy for the Mets or the Dodgers or any other team that's struggling. Just call up someone new because those debutants, they are at it again. I feel like, I mean, I've been talking about this all season. I feel like it's the watchman, Dr. Manhattan meme. You know, it is 1985.
Starting point is 00:48:39 I'm doing this. It is 1959. I'm doing that. It was opening day and an opening weekend. We were talking about how the rookies and the new players had had such a historic start. And then in late May, we did a stap blast about how great the players had been, the batters in their first games. And now it has recurred. And I just wrote about it, actually, because it got to the point.
Starting point is 00:49:03 where I could not ignore this any longer. And Baez just kind of was the capper and had this unprecedented three-dinger day in his major league debut, never been done before. You know, 23-year-old, right-handed hitting, Cardinals' outfield prospect. No secret that he had power. He was leading AAA in home runs before the call-up.
Starting point is 00:49:26 In fact, he's still leading AAA in home runs. But just completely just Matthew Boyd, I mean, left in to surrender all three of those shots to Baez. His new nightmare is now Joshua Baez. And now I tallied the numbers here, and listener, patron supporter, Preston Salisbury, has been emailing about this regularly. And Michael Mountain helped me with some research here. But players making their major league debuts, so in their first major league games this year,
Starting point is 00:49:56 have hit 325-408-613. Wow. So that's a 1.022 OPS. And if they were a single individual hitter, only Yordon Alvarez has been better than the collected performance of guys in their very first game. That's bonkers. Yeah, it is nuts. And it's 285 plate appearances now. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:50:20 And usually when you have an extreme performance like this and someone highlights it, then regression strikes. So I keep waiting for this to change. And somehow it keeps getting better. So when we talked about this and I was marveling about it in late May, these guys had a 162 OPS, and now they have a 181 OPS. It just keeps getting better. And on Saturday, when Baez had his three homer outbursts, I thought, okay, I have to write about this.
Starting point is 00:50:48 Just watch now by the time I get a piece up on Monday, probably on Sunday there will be some debut that goes O for five and spoils things. No, instead, Brett Callaghan debuted for the Tigers and hit a two-run trip. on his first MLB pitch, which was a first in 114 years for the Tigers, making your, having a triple in your first played appearance, which was Ed Irwin, who was playing in his only major league game, the game when the Tigers brought a bunch of scrubs in because Ty Cobb was out and they were playing under protest, and Irwin was the only guy who got a hit.
Starting point is 00:51:26 So you have to go back to that. And it's been a constant stream of those, like, first to do this, first to do that. The debutantes have just been amazing. And looking this up, when I stopped lasted this in May, I was just looking at overall stats. And of course, those are somewhat skewed for earlier eras by pitcher hitting. Sure. So we excluded pitcher hitting for this comparison, and it's still super extreme.
Starting point is 00:51:54 And it's like, historically speaking, if you take pitchers out of the picture, major league hitters in their very first major league game integration era entering this season had a 78 OPS plus. And rookies are like 88 overall or something. So rookies are worse than the average hitter and guys in their very first game are worse than rookies. Sure. And yet they've just been unstoppable. They've just been unbeatable. And if you look at it in terms of, you know, some guys make their major league debuts and don't hit,
Starting point is 00:52:28 in those games. Right. Because they pinch run or they enter as a defensive replacement or something. And so I looked at it the other way, too, just looking at first batting game. And that moves the numbers up even more. Then you get up to 304 plate appearances and they're hitting 331, 413, 615. Wow. It's ridiculous.
Starting point is 00:52:48 Like, even though these are fairly small samples for past seasons, there's never been a year past May where the combined debutante batting line was what it is now in mid to late August with way more plate appearances. So it just blows my mind that this keeps happening. I don't know how, but I keep thinking, well, this is surely going to end. But now, like, the debutants could go over their next 100
Starting point is 00:53:15 and still be better than the league average OPS. That's bonkers. Yeah, and often better prospects tend to come up early and late in the year. like Baez because you get to that point where suddenly all the prospects come up less so than in the past when rosters expanded more in September. Sure. But nonetheless. So, yeah, it just keeps defying regression, keeps defying gravity.
Starting point is 00:53:37 And it's been one of my favorite storylines and improbabilities of this baseball season. Well, and it just seems like there's the combination potentially of like the talent that is there plus like the general midness of the league beyond that. So maybe the talent is better positioned to take advantage of it because it's like, well, how good are they really? You know, have you looked at the American League lately? Ben, you've looked at the American League lately? I have. Yeah. That's not good.
Starting point is 00:54:06 It's really not. It's cool and bad over there. Yeah. Yeah, it's pretty rough. Yeah. Yeah. It's, I don't know. I tried to make sense of it and say, yeah, maybe it has something to do with the league or maybe it fits into longer-term trends about, you know, improve player development.
Starting point is 00:54:24 and players coming up more quickly and the aging curve changing to favor younger guys and all of that's true. Sure. I don't think it comes close to explaining any of this because it's not like the debut batters last year were good or the year before that were good. In fact, they were quite bad. So it's just the flukeest thing, but fun. And lots of good players in this group. I mean, Weatherholt and McGonagall, you know, maybe your rookie the year favorite. and other top prospects and highly touted players,
Starting point is 00:54:57 but also sort of some randos who had just big first games. Yeah, I think that some of it is absolutely attributable to the fact that, like, we had a lot of really impressive guys debut this year. And even someone like Baia is, like, he's not a top 100 guy for us, but he's like 45, you know, he's, and the power, as you noted, is sort of undeniable. So, yeah, I don't know. I don't know how to account for it, but it's pretty cool. Yeah, I do have to re-air one piece.
Starting point is 00:55:24 of mine, which is that I know I've complained about this before, but the MLB YouTube highlights, they don't edit anything seemingly. It's so strange. So when I go to look at the highlight on the MLB YouTube channel for Joshua Baez's three homer game, the video is more than 13 minutes long. It's just like all of his plate appearance, like just uncut, unedited. It's so strange. And there's an ESPN version on YouTube of the three homer game, and it's a minute 42 seconds, which is what I want.
Starting point is 00:56:02 You click on it, and it doesn't crop it too close. I mean, sometimes I hate highlights where, like, there's a homer and they just cut to, like, the pitches in flight. And I want to see the delivery and the setup and everything. Give me a little time to savor and enjoy. But the ESPN version of this highlight, it's a minute of 42 seconds. I get to see the pitches, the swings, the trots, the celebrations, everything I want. Whereas the 13-minute MLV version, it's like I'm sitting down for almost a sitcom or something. Return of the King ass.
Starting point is 00:56:35 It's like, yeah, I don't get it. I don't know why they do this. Is it just laziness? Like we're just going to plot the whole thing down there because we don't want to figure out how to edit it and have someone cut it together. Is there some kind of like it's automated? And so they just... I think that's probably the answer. Yeah, but even if it were automated, you'd think an automated process could do a better job of flagging, okay, when is the pitch being thrown?
Starting point is 00:57:00 Instead of just having the entire plate appearance. I don't mind that sometimes, like if there's some big moment, sometimes it helps to have the full plate appearance because you get the buildup and the drama and, okay, how did we get to the payoff pitch? Sometimes that can be illuminating. But in this case, I just want to see the full homers. That's mostly what I want to see. And so I'm cutting around and skipping. And if you don't have YouTube premium, then you're running into ad breaks and you've got to wait for things to load. And it's just who wants that?
Starting point is 00:57:31 Who's like, yeah, I click to see the three homers. And now I'm settling in for 13 minutes to watch this just unedited. I don't know why they do this. I just, I run into this so often. Maybe they're like, you know who we need to make happy in this moment? Joshua buys his mom. Maybe, yeah, I'm sure. Maybe mom is the target audience.
Starting point is 00:57:50 where it's like she's going to say this is too short of a highlight reel, really. Yeah. Or are they trying to just monetize these things by having more ad breaks? Is that the conspiracy here? I don't know. Joshua Baez had a four-homer game in AAA in June. So, I mean, this is not new to him. But with the AAA to MLB exchange rate, I think three MLB dingers,
Starting point is 00:58:12 probably more memorable than four AAA digers. I think you're right about that. Yeah. Anyway, that's just, it's incredible that they have kept it up. One guy who did not have a big debut and then did not excel after that either is Colt Emerson of the Mariners. I got to ask you about this situation. Yeah, I know. Sorry.
Starting point is 00:58:31 By the way, speaking of Bill Simmons, he's been tweeting a bunch about Mariners prospects because I think he has Kate Anderson in his dynasty league or something. And so he keeps tweeting that they need to stop being cowards and bring up Cade. He is somewhat self-interested in this situation. But cold Emerson, I get my cults and my Cades confused. Yeah, and there are Coles floating around too. Coles, Cades, yeah, it's tough. And it's tough because, like, as a Star Wars guy, I remember Cade Skywalker, which was, he was early to the Cade boom, I think. I mean, that was many years ago in the legacy comic books, which are set, you know, even after the sequel series.
Starting point is 00:59:15 And I guess no longer can, unfortunately. but he was kind of a core cade for me, and now I'm having to learn all these other cades and cults. Emerson, though, we have the latest example of injury confusion happening here. So you've got to walk me through this. So he was put on the IEL, but he was nearly demoted, right, because he has really struggled.
Starting point is 00:59:41 And this was, you know, top Mariners prospect, shortstop of the future, signed the big extension earlier this year, was called up and has a 67 WRC plus and has been about replacement level in a not so nice 69 games. And so they were going to send him down, but then he made clear that this is maybe more of a wrist issue than he had led on seemingly. And so now he's on the 10-day IL with left wrist tendon inflammation. And then we got some uncharacteristically frank quotes from Jerry DePoto, who sounded somewhat frustrated about what he perceived to be a lack of transparency on Emerson's part as far as coming clean about how much the wrists may have been bothering him. So I've talked about this sort of situation before. We had the Sean Murphy situation with Atlanta.
Starting point is 01:00:40 and sometimes it's the team not totally coming clear about how much an injury is affecting someone and sometimes it's the player not making that clear to the team. But Depoto said this was not an unknown. We just didn't realize how much it was bothering him. And he said, we're taking a look. I suspect we will find that it is a thing. He is going to see hand and wrist specialists.
Starting point is 01:01:07 They're not ruling out surgery. Depoto said he's managed it all year long. He's as tough as they come. He would just come in and say it's good enough, and he battled through. I wish he would have been a little more up front if it was bothering him that much. He should have said something. And then he said, Cole Emerson has never had a problem with contact. He's never had a problem with velocity.
Starting point is 01:01:27 And we saw things happening that didn't make sense. And this actually might make sense of it. So I was somewhat surprised, I suppose, by Depoto. I didn't hear him make those comments. I read them so I don't know what his tone of voice was. Yeah. I'm not sure if he was letting off some steam or whether he was just being frank about it. But with a young guy signed to an extension, who's been struggling, who's supposed to be a cornerstone of your franchise,
Starting point is 01:01:56 I was semi-surprised that they didn't kind of tiptoe around it a little more and kind of called him out for maybe not being open with them about how he was feeling. I was surprised, too, if only more by the back half of that quote. And like you, I only read these comments. I didn't hear them delivered. So I don't want a scribe tone to him that DePoto didn't exhibit. It was mostly surprising that we heard from Jerry at all because a lot of the, you know, the particulars of the roster, the movements onto the aisle, what have you, they have in recent years starting. at outsourcing to Justin Hollander. So I was a little surprised that it was Jerry at all.
Starting point is 01:02:43 And then it's like if you see this guy who is going to be, you know, if everything goes to plan this early bit of struggle aside, is going to be an important player on your team, you know, and you see him, you see his time at the plate going in a way that is very uncharacteristic of whatever concerns you might have had about him in the past, doesn't that be like, so hey, like, how bad is it really? You know, let's get some imaging done. Let's check in on that. Like, you're a tough son of a gun.
Starting point is 01:03:16 You have a high pain tolerance. Let's make sure that your high pain tolerance isn't getting in the way of us understanding what we're actually dealing with here. I think that it is certainly better for players to be frank with their teams about the extent of their injuries so that they can receive appropriate treatment. I would hope that a young guy getting a contract like Emerson did would allow him, even if it also applies pressure to your performance, also gives you the latitude to be like, no, we're all in this together, right?
Starting point is 01:03:51 Like everyone is directionally aligned to see Cole Emerson succeed because he's making, you know, we'll make close to $100 million over the course of this deal is an important part the franchise. I also will say that like their other infield pieces, either because of age or injury elsewhere, did kind of box them in in terms of like, who else on this roster was going to play shortstop, right? Like, ideally, it seems like it's just cold. Like, he's the one who can handle that position. So, you know, again, I don't want to ascribe to Depoto tone that wasn't there. It could be that he was just kind of in a way that was more wistful and like, hey, we want him to feel like he can tell us these things and have it be more about that than like a frustration
Starting point is 01:04:36 that he wasn't maybe more forthcoming with the degree to which the injury was bothering him. I don't know. But it does seem a little odd to give that kind of transparency when it's like, well, Jerry, surely you're aware of the roster pressures that were a play where this guy might feel like he needs to play because who else is playing shortstop for you? Yeah. Yeah. I do think that players and teams both sometimes get themselves.
Starting point is 01:05:00 in trouble though when they say, well, they need me. I agree. And so, yeah, because they don't need you playing like that, really. Right. You know, because if you're a replacement level, then you can be replaced and hopefully the team could do better in some way. And so it's maybe better for you to take a beat and get better. Right. It's like with Ellie last year, and we talked about when he had his leg issues and we were thinking, well, Ellie's so good that maybe some percentage of a healthy Ellie probably
Starting point is 01:05:30 is what they were telling themselves. And maybe they didn't have a great alternative. But he wasn't Ellie when he was playing. He was not good. He was bad. He was replacement level. And the same with Murphy, too. And maybe there is sometimes that mindset.
Starting point is 01:05:46 It was like with Atlanta where they never really give guys time off and they don't seem to want time off many of their guys, Olson, etc. Then maybe it becomes part of that team's identity. And if other people aren't just load managing, then maybe you feel like you can't. It doesn't give you that permission structure to do that. I don't know. It sounds, in print at least, it reads like Jerry was a little bit frustrated, but I don't know.
Starting point is 01:06:14 He's describing when Emerson did come clean about this, he says, Depoto, I think he understood where he was and he took a breath. And then he said, I really would like to have an updated look at my wrist. It's been a thing. And we're taking a look. I suspect we will find that it is a thing because Colt's not likely to say something if it's not really bothering him as we found out, which sounds a little bit passive aggressive maybe. And it gives me some comfort to understand what happened during his time here. He just wants to compete. He wants to contribute.
Starting point is 01:06:45 It's hard to hit with a bad wrist. And it's especially hard to hit with a bad risk when you're trying to play against a level of competition you've never played before. So yeah, I had the same thought. If they had all of these statistical indicators to say, oh, this is not him. Right. That something was wrong. Yeah. Then wouldn't that trigger you.
Starting point is 01:06:59 having a talk, especially if you knew there was some issue with the wrists, which evidently they did, then when you say, hey, will you notice this or that? Are you sure this is not hampering you and take a little pressure off and give him permission and an out and say, hey, we want to get you healthy and we're thinking long term and everything? Right. And for all, I know they did have that kind conversation and maybe Emerson still stonewalled them, in which case I could understand why they would be a bit miffed about this because it wouldn't frustrate me. Sure. I understand the pressures and everything.
Starting point is 01:07:34 One of the things in Murphy's case was kind of weird because he had gotten paid and he was a veteran. And so he wouldn't have the same pressure that some younger guys would to say, well, I can't take myself out of the lineup because I might lose my spot or this will hurt me in arbitration or whatever. He had gotten his contract. And you could say the same about Emerson too and that he got his extension. but I can understand why if you're 21, you just signed that deal, you probably put a lot of pressure on yourself to justify that contracts.
Starting point is 01:08:06 But yeah, it's tough because ultimately if the player doesn't disclose what's going on, then there's only so much you can do. But it really would be a top priority for me if I were running a team to just try to inculcate some kind of environment where people could be open about this. And I know they have so many incentives. not to, but I would just do my best to acknowledge that and still say, look, it's going to be better for us and better for you in the long term and maybe the short term too. If you are clearly compromised, you're going to do more damage to yourself and the team by trying to gut through
Starting point is 01:08:44 this. Well, and I hate this as an opportunity to rag on Dan again. But also, like, where is your manager in all of this? You know what I mean? And I want to be clear, it is. is a persistent, I think, frustration for teams when their players are not fully transparent about the degree to which injury is affecting them, right? We can appreciate all the pressures that might exist even for a young guy who's gotten an extension, but for a young player and still wish, as you are saying, that they would be more forthcoming with this stuff. But also, isn't guiding and setting the tone for your young guys part of what your coaching staff
Starting point is 01:09:26 should be doing. And to your point, maybe they did all that stuff. Maybe they're like, hey, we really should take another look at that. He's like, no, it's fine. I don't want to, you know, let Cole Emerson off the hook for not taking responsibility for, like, having clear communication with the medical staff about his injuries. We don't know the extent of it. But it does feel like, hey, Dan, Chenya, know that he's compromised, right? I did see a Bob Nightingale report that Dan Wilson is expected to be fired if the Mariners missed the playoffs. So I guess silver lining if they do. No, look, can I ask you something though?
Starting point is 01:10:07 Like, so we, you know, we were sort of alluding to the catastrophic is too strong, but sea of suck that is the American League right now? Is that less strong to call it that, to refer to it that way? It is quite bad as we are recording to do. Tuesday at 147 p.m. My time, there are three teams tied for the third wild card spot. And then you have the twins and the Blue Jays a half game out, quote unquote. And then the Guardians a game out and the Mariners two games out. Okay. So like let's imagine for a moment that these mariners, these 59 and 66 mariners, these 472 winning percentage mariners, these negative 23 run differential mariners,
Starting point is 01:10:55 make that postseason. The Tigers have a plus 86 run differential. Yeah. Man, anyway, if the Mariners make the playoffs this year, how many games, what's the most games over 500 you would predict them to be if they squeak into the to the postseason? This isn't a fair question because I didn't prep you for this, but like off the dome, what's the most over 500 you would expect them to be? Gosh, three games.
Starting point is 01:11:25 Three games. Okay. I think three games is a reasonable answer to that question. If a three games over 500, probably still negative or only slightly positive for a differential Mariners team makes the postseason, would that be enough for you for Dan Wilson to keep his job? And I'm not necessarily saying he should get fired. I mean, I have been critical of his managerial skills and I will probably remain critical of them. But like, does that change of circumstance in this AL field strike you is sufficient to change his fortunes? Not really. No. Not really.
Starting point is 01:12:01 Just looking at it in terms of team performance relative to preseason expectations. However much of that is attributable to Dan Wilson. Sure, right. They came in viewed widely as maybe the best team in the American League. Yeah, certainly one of the best. And so if they just squeak in whether it's in an extremely mid-AIL West or an extremely mid-mid. AL third wildcard. Things have gone wrong in a lot of...
Starting point is 01:12:28 Things have gone very wrong. Is Cal Raleigh, Dan Wilson's fault? Right. I don't think so. Probably not, right? But, I mean, a lot has gone wrong there that you can't really lay at his door. Correct.
Starting point is 01:12:41 Because managers are often evaluated, both in good ways and in bad ways, because their team just differed from expectations somehow, then, yeah, if they make the playoffs by the skin of their teeth, unless they then go all the way, I think you'd still have to see it as a somewhat disappointing season. Right.
Starting point is 01:12:59 I am of the mind that, like, playoff or no, is it, it's the wrong benchmark for him keeping his job or not. And if they were to, like, make the postseason and then somehow, like, win the World Series, they're not going to fire him. But maybe they should. You know what I mean? Like, I don't think that what happens in October should alter your understanding of his, season. And you're right to say that many of the things that have gone wrong for Seattle are way
Starting point is 01:13:27 outside of Dan Wilson's control, right? I still think that he is not great at some of the tactical stuff. He still leaves pitchers in for too long. But like a lot of what is wrong with the Mariners season is not attributable directly to Dan Wilson, right? It's just a, it's a flum mixing. If it is true that that is like how the team is thinking about it, it is a, it is a, it's a, it's a, very strange to my mind way of doing it. It's maybe one that's justifiable to fans because it's like, hey, you were supposed to, not only were you supposed to contend for a playoff spot,
Starting point is 01:14:02 but to your point, they were thought to be one of the better teams than the AL. Like, you know, Seattle rides again, right? We're going to remember when I was like, you know, who else won a championship in their 50th season? Like a dummy, like a dumb dope. I will remind everyone that the answer to that question is the Seattle Seahawks and then the Mariners are in their 50 seasons. So I was like, oh boy, look.
Starting point is 01:14:22 look at us, you know? Yeah. Anyway. The playoff picture has only become mudier since the trade deadline. It's so bad. Yeah. Seemed to offer a little bit of clarity in terms of how teams saw themselves, but then the results since then have been all over the place,
Starting point is 01:14:42 which is not so surprising. It's two weeks of games. Anything can happen. But you look at the teams that have raised their playoff odds the most since the deadline. Number one, it's the Padres, and they, to their credit, did go in and declare that they were going for it and have been rewarded for that so far. Their playoff odds now over 50-50, up by a half or more. The Blue Jays, who kind of tried to have it both ways, and now they are in it too, and their playoff odds are up double digits. The White Sox, who tried to get better, too.
Starting point is 01:15:18 the Astros who didn't do a whole lot, but at least put themselves in the buyer category, kind of. The Orioles, who were one of the more aggressive sellers, really, and now find themselves in better position than they were when they dealt. And the Tigers, who are also up in terms of playoff odds and in better playoff position after trading,
Starting point is 01:15:40 Scoopal and Mize. And then the bottom teams, the teams that have lost the most playoff odds since the deadline, the Guardians, have lost about half of their playoff odds since then, even though we grading on a Cleveland curve, said we liked what they did at the deadline. Sure.
Starting point is 01:15:57 The pirates, I declared a deadline winner. They're down 23 percentage points or something. It is so weird that they're hitting the way they are. I did not expect. If you had told me before the season that they would get this kind of offense, I would say they'd be contending for a central title or something, let alone a wild card.
Starting point is 01:16:16 And yet here they are. with an outside shot at a wildcard with the offense they've had. And the Mariners down almost 20 percentage points and the Diamondbacks. We did take them to task for their inactivity, the Marlins, the twins. So, yeah, some of the teams that were more aggressive and tried to get better have, in fact, played worse and find themselves in worse playoff position. And yeah, you look at that playoff picture, and it's nothing new. This has been a recurring talking point, too. This is one of the through lines of this season.
Starting point is 01:16:49 But it's really every time I look at the standings and the jockeying for position, if you can even call it jockeying for position. It's just it's treading water, everyone really. And, you know, I'm watching Silo, one of the many Apple TV sci-fi series that I watch. Is it the one with Rebecca Ferguson? Yes. And the titular silo, you know, the underground. Oh, they live in a silo?
Starting point is 01:17:15 They live in a silo. That's why it's called silo. And there are many levels to the silo. And so the higher levels they refer to as up top and the bottom levels they referred to as down deep. And then everything in between they just refer to as the mids. And every time they talk about the mids, I think about the AL Wildcard Race, which might be flattering, really, to some of these teams. Because not one of them is projected to finish with a 500 record. And I'm sure that if Dan ran the Zips or whatever, that one of them would be, I mean, not one of them
Starting point is 01:17:54 individually, but from the field, you would probably expect that we will not end up with a losing or 500 team in a full season making the playoffs for the first time ever. But if you look team by team, just individually, not one of these third wildcard contenders is actually projected to finish with a 500 record, let alone a winning record. So whichever one of them gets, not even hot, whichever one of them gets tepid, whichever one of them gets lukewarm the rest of the way,
Starting point is 01:18:27 might accidentally look into a 500 or better record here, but it's going to be a photo finish. So, yeah. Yeah, I mean, it is just such a jumble. And one of those teams might very well. the stakes are sort of high. I mean, one of these things could very well win a World Series, make a deep playoff run. It's baseball.
Starting point is 01:18:49 So that can absolutely happen. But yeah, we just, we kind of have a lot of teams more or less locked up. Like they're eight teams with 85 or so percent probabilities to make the playoffs. And then the White Sox, the Astros are over 60 percent. The Padres are over 50 percent. and then everyone else just sort of squabbling over the crumbs, really. You know, it's just, okay, you do have the diamond backs kind of in it, in the NL. In it without Cotell Marte for reasons we're still not totally clear on.
Starting point is 01:19:25 I know. We can probably wait to find out what is happening there before we talk about it because it might be premature to try to weigh in before we understand what is happening for before they do. But yeah, it's Mariners, Rangers, Twins, Guardians, Tigers, Orioles, Blue Jays, all of the those teams are between a 36% chance and a 17% chance to make the playoffs. That's seven teams that are in it. And they're all really just effectively fighting over one playoff spot. I guess the West teams are fighting over the AL West as well, which is the Astros are barely over 500 as we speak to at the top of that division. So yeah, it is, it is nuts. And then you have the Cardinals, the Marlins, the pirates,
Starting point is 01:20:11 kind of hanging in there. But yeah, that AL mess, is there one team there that you would bet on most if we were people who bet on baseball to emerge from that group or that you would take the over on their current playoff odds or to have a 500 or better records? I feel ridiculous saying this because they literally traded the best, if not one of the best pitchers in baseball, but Detroit? Yeah, I kind of feel the same way. I think Detroit.
Starting point is 01:20:41 It's pretty well. So is it like snowpiercer, but stationary? A little bit. Yeah, a little bit. Cool. All right. I just need to translate the Apple shows into something I understand. No, it's tough.
Starting point is 01:20:51 I mean, even the Fallout Shelters slash Silo shows. It's like, am I watching Silo? Am I watching Paradise? Am I watching Fallout? Right. The answer is yes to all of them, but it is hard for me to keep them straight sometimes. Where do you find the time? Where do you find the time?
Starting point is 01:21:08 It's not easy. I finally saw K-pop demon hunters. Oh, that's good. Yeah, it was good. I enjoyed it. The animation, so cool. I can't convince Sloan to watch it. She loves the songs.
Starting point is 01:21:19 She loves the sort of merch. She sometimes wants to have a K-pop Demon Hunter's birthday party, but she has still refused to watch the movie because she's afraid of the... Is it too scary? So she stinks. I mean, I don't know whether she would actually be scared, but the fact that demons are in the title has put her off for now. But one of these days, I will convince her to watch it.
Starting point is 01:21:39 Yeah, I thought they were so cool. Yeah. The last thing that I wanted to mention here, just wanted to shout out the Odyssey of Jake Rogers, who has played for four teams in a 21-day span. Amazing. Which it was determined by baseball reference is by far the fewest days that it has taken for any player to appear for four different teams. That's so great.
Starting point is 01:22:05 He played for the Tigers, the Orioles, the Red Sox, and the White Sox. He is just doing a tour of the socks and the mid-AL teams and the Red Sox. So this halves the previous record, which was Frank Helsman in 1904, played for Detroit, Chicago, Baltimore, and Minneapolis. And this was, it took him 42 days. And so this is half as many days for Jake Rogers, not Minneapolis. I mean, I was like, wait, there was no team there then. Yeah, that was the Washington senators who would become the twins. But, yeah, have the time that it takes.
Starting point is 01:22:45 And maybe it's a little easier these days, what would they be being more teams and more movement and faster travel and everything. But it's got to be so wild and disorienting for Jake Rogers to play for four teams in a span of three weeks. There was a piece at The Athletic about this by Cody Stavenhagen. and I was reading about just the sequence of events. It's been a crazy few weeks here, Roger said, a whirlwind to say the least, yeah, I would say. So on July 30th, the Tigers DFAed him, and he had been with them for a long time
Starting point is 01:23:21 because he was originally in Astros' third-round draft pick, but he came to the Tigers in the Justin Verlander trade in 2017. So he was with the Tigers for nine years and debuted in the big leagues in 2019, and he had the mustaches and clubhouse, leader and glue guy and all the rest of it. But he wasn't hitting, and Dylan Dingler was, and they just cut him loose and had that hard conversation with him.
Starting point is 01:23:45 And so the Tigers designated him for assignment. The Orioles acquired him via trade for Zane Barnhart. And so he goes to Baltimore. He suits up for them, gets into a game against the Phillies, and then the trade deadline happens. Right. And they trade him with. Adley Rutchman to the Red Sox.
Starting point is 01:24:08 And then he debuts for the Red Sox, but he knows that Adley is looming, right? And he knows as soon as Adley gets activated off the IL, probably he's going to be gone. And indeed, that happened. And so they DFAed him again when Adley Rushman was activated. And then the White Sox came calling. And suddenly he's playing with the White Sox against the Tigers, because the White Sox just swept Detroit, right? A big statement weekend for them.
Starting point is 01:24:39 So just a wild turn of events or a few turns of events for Jake Rogers. Wow, I guess it's nice to be wanted, but also not nice not to be wanted by a few other teams. Is he coupled? Do we know? Is he married Jake Rogers? I don't. I don't know. But that's that makes it harder when you are.
Starting point is 01:25:00 Yeah, especially if the initial move is away from a team where you have been for such a long time. Right. Yes. He did get married. He got married in December, just this past December. Oh,
Starting point is 01:25:11 belated congratulations to Jake Rogers. I do wonder, like after the third one, are you just like, so hey, honey, just go back to the, wherever the off-season home is,
Starting point is 01:25:21 and I'll let you know their playoff ticket to worry about. Just because it would just be very disruptive, I would think. I think he needs to bring back the full,
Starting point is 01:25:32 like, Walrus stash because it was spectacular. And I, I do attribute some of the fall off in his play to like... Yeah, it's the Samson situation. I don't know if that applies to mustaches, but maybe in his case. But hopefully he'll stick with the White Sox for a while, hopefully for his sake, because they have needed catching help,
Starting point is 01:25:53 which is surprising because they seem to have a surplus of catchers at one point, but it has not played out that way. So maybe he can help them, and maybe they can help him by just helping him stay put for a little. a little while. That would be good. But I was also looking because I was looking at teams that he was traded between and trade partners. And that took me to an MLB.com piece that Andrew Simon wrote in late 2021 about the longest active trade droughts between teams.
Starting point is 01:26:25 So teams that had not been trade partners for the longest times. And when he wrote this, the longest active trade drought was nationals slash expos and Orioles. they had not made a trade. The Orioles and Nationals had never made a trade, and even the Expos, dating back to October 3rd, 2001, when the Orioles acquired Tim Raines for future considerations.
Starting point is 01:26:51 That was the last time those two had traded. And sometimes this could just be random, but I don't think it wasn't the case of the Orioles and Nats because you had the regional rivalry and you had the Massin dispute and there was bad blood and everything. So I think that was why they hadn't traded for like a quarter century. But they did finally break that drought.
Starting point is 01:27:15 They traded. There was an Orioles Nationals trade this year. And I guess they finally resolved the mass in dispute. And there's no longer Angelos Orioles ownership. And so maybe now that ban has been lifted. And so this July, July 1st, the nationals traded Randall Diaz, minor leaguer to the Orioles for Kyle Nicholas. And that broke the almost 25-year drought. And then they liked it so much, they did it again at the trade deadline. There was an Orioles Nats trade where
Starting point is 01:27:47 the Orioles traded Joe Glassie minor leagher to the Nats for Christian Franklin. So after not having made a trade for 25 years, they made trades in consecutive months. So that's nice. They have healed the rift. They have gotten back together. And then I was looking at the other longest droughts. It was Braves and Phillies was the second longest as of 2021. Well, they have since made trades. So that's over. Dodgers and Tigers was the third latest. Well, they know, we know they've made a pretty noteworthy ones recently, but they had made others prior to the scuple trade. And then it's Guardians and Royals. And Guardians and Royals is still, I think, the longest active trade drought now, just looking, because baseball reference has a handy-dandy
Starting point is 01:28:35 franchise trade history tool. And Cleveland and Kansas City have not made a trade since June 4th, 2004, when Cleveland sent Matt White to the Royals as part of a conditional deal. And I don't know, maybe the condition was, we can never make a trade again because they haven't because the Braves and the Phillies, they made one trade in 2023, March. They traded Jonathan Hughes, the minor leaguer, to Atlanta for unknown compensation. And that's the only trade they've made since December 2002, the Millwood, Kevin Milwood-Jonni Estrada trade. So even though that that drought has ended, they made only one so minor trade that the compensation wasn't even known in March of 2023.
Starting point is 01:29:22 So spiritually, the Atlanta and Philadelphia drought is still alive, I would say. The Dodgers' Dider's Drought, I don't really know why that went on so long from 2004 to 2022. but they have since made several. But yes, technically it's guardians. They have not made one since June 2004. And I guess it's just, you know, division rival, intra-division trade reluctance. But you have to think at some point in the past 22 years, they must have matched up, right? So it seems sort of silly that any two teams would not have made trades over that long a period of time.
Starting point is 01:30:01 It has to have happened. And, like, you've had ownership changes. You've had front office regime changes. It's odd to me that they've never really synced up. I mean, even the Yankees and Red Sox storied rivalry, they've made several trades in the 2020s. They've made four trades since 2021. It's not a common occurrence, but it happens. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:30:25 So I would, I think the guardians should bury the hatchet and they should work out some sort of deal just to, get back on the board here and end the drought and maybe that'll change the fortunes for both of them. Maybe. It could be true. I think it's just as likely that it's sort of a random, funny thing where like the needs didn't align and you're like, oh, it's not really the folks we need to talk to for whatever it is that we're in the market for, but it is sort of a funny thing. You'd think eventually. Well, the Dodgers did put Edwin Diaz on the IL after we recorded with a non-elbo upper body injury. its neck inflammation, or so they say, Kyle Tucker has not joined him on the aisle as of yet. Also, Otani homered again, his 30th, and not allowing Shohei to gain any ground, Pete Kramstrung,
Starting point is 01:31:13 homered also. Just trading blows, keeping paces with each other, trying to make this race interesting. A few other follow-ups for you. First, RIP to Tommy John, who passed away on Saturday. There have been many remembrances of him published since. Check out our retrospective on his eponymous surgery. If you didn't hear that on our last episode, we used to talk at Tomi-Jon. about the half no-hitter. We did a stat blast about this on episode 1580. It's when there are no-hits on either team through
Starting point is 01:31:39 four and a half innings, so half of the game. Half a no-hitter for each team. Put them together. It's almost a whole no-hitter, or at least the same number of innings. Another listener dubbed it a double half-game no-hitter, and combined half-no-hitters are less common than individual whole no-hitters, which we tried to puzzle out on that episode.
Starting point is 01:31:57 I believe I called it a hipster no-hitter, because mostly no-hitter. Because mostly no-hitteres cares. We did get an email, though, on Friday from listener Irby, who says, I'm sure Ben will be inundated with messages, but Friday's Cardinals' Cubs game is halfway to perfection. Clay Holmes, perfect through five, Matthew Liberator, perfect through four, 27 straight outs in the game. And it's true, this was the day before Bias' debut. Actually, I think it was the second day in a row. The Cubs went through the top of the fourth with neither team seeing a better reach base, was against the gnats in the first game. That one was broken up in the bottom of the fourth.
Starting point is 01:32:31 when a Bimelech Ortiz singled off of Kevin Gossmann. But on Friday, the double perfecto was not broken up until the bottom of the fifth when Nico Horner singled off of Liberator with one out. So it was indeed a half-perfect game or double half-game perfecto or hipster perfect game. Not a real perfect game, but we haven't had one of those for a few years. So we'll take what we can get. And no, Irby, I was not inundated with messages, but I did receive yours. And sometimes it takes only one.
Starting point is 01:33:00 Also, we talked recently about Jacob Wilson's streak of the most consecutive games at shortstop without an error, which was almost snapped shortly after that, but an official score ruling was reversed to preserve the streak. And I pointed out that perhaps it's less impressive than it seems because he has had many fewer defensive chances than the player whose streak he snapped, Mike Bordick, back in 2002. And I noted that there are fewer balls in play these days because there are more strikeouts, and there are more balls hit in the air, so there are fewer grounders. Plus, the A's have a very flyball-oriented staff.
Starting point is 01:33:33 However, one factor I did not note was observed in a different context, but still relevant by ESPN's Paul Hembekeetus, who noted that for the first time since 2004, at least more than half of ground balls are being hit to the right side of second base, and short stops, or the shortstop zone, is seeing its lowest percentage of batted balls in that period. And presumably that's because there are a lot of left-handed hitters now, and left-handed hitters are having themselves a,
Starting point is 01:34:00 record year and taking a higher percentage of plate appearances, lefties plus switch hitters. And people tend to pull their ground balls. So more lefty hitters, they're more likely to pull them to that side. I suppose it could also be related to positioning changes and shift restrictions. But that is yet another factor that makes Wilson's streak a little less impressive, historically speaking. Sorry, Jacob. Also, we answered an email last time about whether the Mets strikeout celebrating reliever Jeffrey Jan would celebrate a strikeout that was awarded on a. an ABS challenge with an overturned call. And we didn't quite see that this weekend, but on Saturday, Yon prematurely celebrated what he thought
Starting point is 01:34:38 was a strikeout. He thought he had delivered a strike three. In fact, it was called a ball despite his celebration. And to his credit, he backed up his celebration by challenging. He issued the challenge himself, but the call was confirmed. However, two pitches later, he did record the strikeout, and he celebrated again. So this is not quite the scenario we discussed, but entertaining nonetheless. He was bound and determined to both finish off and celebrate that strikeout.
Starting point is 01:35:04 And ultimately, he did. Finally, just want to shout out Red Sox reliever Raymond Burgos. I mentioned him recently because he was one of the Red Sox relievers who had recorded a three-inning save. This was when we talked about the resurgence of three-inning saves and multi-inning relief outings. Well, Burgos not only got that three-inning save back on August 7th, he came back on August 8th, the very next game and very next day, and pitched three innings again. Both games, he entered in the seventh and finished.
Starting point is 01:35:29 You don't see that very often these days, but maybe even rarer is what he did on Sunday. He threw four innings, but he threw the first two. Then there was an extended rain delay to two and a half hours, and he came back out on the other side of the rain delay and threw two more innings. You just never see that. Someone throws multiple innings, sits for that long, comes back out, throws multiple more innings. A true throwback, Raymond Burgos, really bringing back the Iron Man reliever. Pretty impressive that he just keeps coming back for more. And you can help us keep coming back for more by supporting the podcast on Patreon, which you can do by going to Patreon.com slash effectively wild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount.
Starting point is 01:36:08 To help keep the podcast going, help us stay ad free and get yourself access to some perks. As have the following five listeners, John Farrell, probably not the former manager, but you never know. John McCall, Jeff, Robert Bierman Smith, and Ben Milstein, thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include access to a third unrestricted episode each week. A monthly bonus episode. Over and above those three per week. Membership in our Discord group for patrons only. Exclusive live streams.
Starting point is 01:36:35 Prioritized email answers, personalized messages. Shoutouts at the end of episodes, potential podcast appearances, fan graphs, memberships, and more. Check out all the offerings at patreon.com slash Effectively Wild. If you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro, and outro themes to podcasts at Fangraphs. You can rate, review, and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts.
Starting point is 01:36:58 Spotify, YouTube music, and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash group slash effectively wild. You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at our slash Effectively Wild. And you can check the show notes in the podcast posted fan graphs or Patreon or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats recited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We will be back with another episode soon.
Starting point is 01:37:20 Talk to you then. Romantic pedantic and hypothetical, semantic and frantic, real or theoretical. They give you the stats and they give you the news. It's a baseball podcast you should choose. Effectively Wild is here for you about all the weird stuff that players do. Authentically strange and objectively styled. Let's play ball. It's effectively wild.
Starting point is 01:37:48 It's effectively wild. It's effectively wild.

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