Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2523: Upon Further Review

Episode Date: August 27, 2026

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about takeaways from ESPN’s 30 for 30 podcast on Shohei Ohtani and Ippei Mizuhara, disappointing parity (46:41), the latest public-funding ballpark boondoggles in Kansas City and Tampa (52:22), and which AL wild card contender most deserves to squeak into October (1:12:58). Audio intro: El Warren, “Effectively Wild Theme” Audio outro: Josh Busman, “Effectively Wild Theme” Link to The Betrayal of Shohei Ohtani Link to Passan video on the Dodgers Link to Passan tweeets on the Dodgers Link to EW episode on Ippei Link to criminal complaint Link to Starz show update Link to deMause/Bradbury EW episode Link to KC ballpark update Link to Tampa ballpark update Link to more on Tampa ballpark Link to Field of Schemes book Link to Field of Schemes post 1 Link to Field of Schemes post 2 Link to Field of Schemes post 3 Link to TIF wiki Link to This One Will Be Different Link to deMause Bluesky post Link to Hurtak Bluesky post Link to Nippon Ham wiki Link to Fighters wiki Link to fruit of the poisonous tree Link to Chinese wall wiki Link to national debt news Link to Alou brothers game Link to all-Alou-outfield article  Sponsor Us on Patreon  Give a Gift Subscription  Email Us: [e-mail]  Effectively Wild Subreddit  Effectively Wild Wiki  Apple Podcasts Feed   Spotify Feed  YouTube Playlist  Facebook Group  Bluesky Account  Twitter Account  Get Our Merch! var SERVER_DATA = Object.assign(SERVER_DATA || {}); Source

Hello and welcome to episode 2523 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer, joined by Meg Rally of Fangraphs. Hello, Meg. Hello. So I listened to ESPN's Show Hey podcast or really, Ipe podcast. It is as much an Ipe podcast as it is a show hey podcast, probably. more so understandably. But this was the 30 for 30 audio docu series called the betrayal of Shohei Otani. And I was a little late to this. It actually wrapped up a couple weeks ago and started in July.

I didn't feel a great urgency to listen to it because I kind of felt like I had a handle on the story and how much more was there to learn, really. And I guess that was more or less vindicated by hearing the thing. There wasn't that. much more hard information that actually surfaced as a result of this. If you read the coverage at the time, and it's hosted by ESPN's Tisha Thompson, who is one of the prominent reporters breaking the story and doing a lot of the legwork on that. It's a lot of recap of what was out there and some of the after effects. And if you read the affidavit, which we did and responded to on the podcast at the time, then a lot of the details are, are in.

in there. And most of the people who were embroiled in this did not choose to participate in the podcast. Yeah, perhaps unsurprisingly, Shohi Otani said no to the interview request and actually said that he would never again address this in any way, evidently, other than the one time he talked about it at the press conference. He's just not going to go there again. His agency declined comment, MLB declined comment. IPE declined comment, at least mostly. There is some audio of IPA from the initial call with Tisha Thompson that preceded the story being broken. But basically, I didn't learn a whole lot, and yet I think it was a worthwhile listen. It was well produced. It was pretty well done.

And I thought gave a pretty good summation of the story. And also just brought up a lot of the lingering questions that people still have. or the mystery that surrounds this whole affair, I guess, in part because Otani chooses not to talk about it much and the others involved haven't either. And also because IPE is just such a mystifying figure. And this podcast doesn't clarify that at all. But it did sort of highlight just how inscrutable he is and his motivations and what he was thinking and how he thought he was. going to get away with this and just this strange combination of fraudster and just guy who seemed to be completely in over his head and just didn't consider the consequences at all. So probably

the best part of this, the most eye-opening part or ear-opening part, was in the second episode where Tisha Thompson plays a lot of the audio of the call that she had with IPEA just before she broke the story. And this was during that frenzied 24 hours or so where she went to Otani's camp and said that she knew that there had been payments sent from

Otani's account to this sports book and or bookie at least. And then there was this crisis manager who was sort of hired to respond to this. And then he put Tisha Thompson in touch with

IPE and IPEA talk to her. Because remember there was that whole confusing sequence of events where IPE at first talked to her and said, Yautani knew about this and I did this with his blessing and he was just trying to help me out and get me out of this hole I was in. And then immediately after that, as the story was about to go to print, evidently, Tisha Thompson said they were like 15 minutes away from pressing publish on that version of the story. When the question, crisis manager called and said, IPE was lying about everything.

And then they had to just sort of, yeah, scratch that and rewrite it and scramble. And it's just, it's so strange. It's so confusing how IPE thought he was going to get away with that or what? Because you listen to him on the audio and he's largely lying through his teeth. He sounds, I mean, he sounds calm. He gets a little emotional at times.

but he just doesn't really seem to have a sense of the anvil that is hanging over his head, really. It's just, it's so confusing because he knew he was talking to an ESPN investigative reporter who was about to publish about this. And so inevitably, Otani would soon learn about this. And if he had no idea that this was happening, why is IPE thinking? And it's so strange because, like, he didn't seem to understand the gravity. at the situation and he was thinking that he was going to have follow-up calls and conversations with Tisha Thompson. So maybe he didn't realize that this was about to go to print, but it was still like, what are you thinking here?

Because as soon as this story is out there, everything you are saying right now is going to be exposed as a lie. And then that will make things even worse. So I don't know if he was just so diluted or just so far past hope or what that he just was kind of, had tunnel vision and just thought, how am I going to get through this next day or this next conversation? And I'm just going to keep spinning this story and fabricating until I'm caught. Like, the jig is up, man. Right. Like, it's over. You're caught red-handed.

So because it's so hard to understand him, I think that then leads to a lot of the lingering questions that people have, which the podcast acknowledges at the end, that no matter what anyone says or does, people will continue to suspect that Otani had something to do with this or that IPE was taking the fall for him. I just looked at the top comment, the first comment on the Spotify page for the first episode in this series, and it says, LOL betrayal, O'Tani needs to be thanking that guy. If Pete Rose had an interpreter, he could also have blamed the interpreter, which if you listen to the podcast, you definitely don't come away with the impression that Otani needs to be thanking that guy.

But I think just because it's so hard to put yourself in the place of IPE and try to figure out what was he doing here, how did he think he was going to get away with that? Because that question can't be answered, I think it opens the door to the more conspiratorial thinking about this just doesn't add up. Something doesn't add up here. And thus it must be some kind of cover up or conspiracy. And Otani must have been more involved than all the other facts seem to say. suggest. I also think that, and I'm about, I'm about to say something, and I don't want anyone to

think I'm such a hardened criminal who's done such time. I just think that if your default position is that eBay was willing to engage in some elaborate cover-up whereby he spends hard time in a federal prison that you maybe are failing to appreciate what being in a federal prison is like, I don't mean to suggest that he's in some sort of maximum

security facility. He's in a low security, but still. But still, you know, I don't think that that's a fun experience, you know. It alters, apart from anything else, even if you don't think doing the time is particularly onerous.

Like, it just alters the trajectory of your entire life in a way that I I don't know there probably is some amount of money that would make that worthwhile but I think it would be a pretty significant one so there's no

there's no good theory alternative theory of his motivations right that he is doing this to spare Otani in some way so I just I've never found that persuasive and part of why as you mentioned there was all of this initial

suspicion and things you know things for a stretch did look kind of dire for Otani. There was a while before we had greater clarity into how eBay himself was like deceiving Otani and failing to communicate clearly with him while they were on that, you know, series in Japan. Yeah. That, you know, it kind of looked dicey and then it became clear. Well, part of why Otani's camp is saying what it is and part of why Otani's approach to this has been what it is, because eBay is actively deceiving them too.

Right. Yeah, because Otani's name is on the wire transfers to the illegal bookmaker. So that looked bad. It looked bad. I mean, we did, how many emergency pods did you do around the eBay stuff? It was, I think it was at least two, right? I mean, we did more than two pods total, but I think that we had a scrambled, oh, dear God. Yeah, I know when the affidavit came out, I think we did a quick response to it.

But I think when the initial ESPN reporting came out that we were kind of like, hey, we have season preview pods to do. And Meg is about to pull her own hair out because of positional power rankings, but also the best baseball player on the planet might have like just earned himself a lifetime ban from sports. So scramble the jets. And then it became clear fairly quickly that like that the story was both more and less dramatic. that and much sadder, you know? And I can appreciate why Otani is done talking about this. If I were him, I'd be done talking about it. So maybe a little licensed therapist. Because like, it is a, I can't imagine how unsettling and, and disorienting it would be to realize that such a trusted confidant had betrayed you so intimately, right? and had endangered not only like your, you know, a piece of your fortune,

although like in relative terms a fairly small one, but your reputation in place in the game, like I would feel, I would, like, I'm not just like making a joke about therapy. Like, I'd need to do work around that. That would take time for me personally to come back from. I don't want to speak to Otani's psychology because obviously I don't know him. But I remain uneasy and sort of disappointed in how persistent and sort of stubborn a faction there is that truly believes that like Otani is the one who did this. And Ipe is some, you know, willing patsy for him, both because, you know, I just remain really uncomfortable with how sort of conspiracy-brained we are as a culture and not in a fun way, you know, not in a alien.

and Bigfoot kind of way in like, oh, do we believe in a common reality? Do we have an agreement around that? But also because, you know, I would imagine that being constantly reminded of what has to be one of the worst episodes of his life. It's just like, it feels deeply unfair to Otani, you know, that he has to keep relitigating this stuff. But all that to say, I am not surprised either that that Ipe's participation would be limited not only from like a potential criminal implication perspective, although he's obviously been sentenced. But I wonder how much like how much of a logical framework he can really put around it. We have taken pains when we've talked about the various suspensions that players have drawn for violating the league's gambling policy that like,

you know, we want to acknowledge the potential existence of there being an addictive. component to that set of decision-making processes, but also not assume that. But also, if you read the indictment and you read IPE's text and you're like, this, you know, absent other information, like this definitely reads like the behavior of an addict. And so it doesn't remove the criminal culpability he has, but it does make you wonder, like, would he be able to, other than saying, I just assumed I'd be able to win big. enough to put the money back? Like, does he have a theory of mind for his own behavior? I don't, I wonder if he does. I wouldn't be surprised if he was just like, I can't tell, I don't know what to

tell you. Like, I just was in the thrall of this thing that I lost control of. Yeah. And he seems to acknowledge that in the audio that she plays. I mean, he seems to feel remorse or express remorse about how he got into this situation and it got out of control and everything. But then he, still digging deeper and deeper at that point. And, you know, it starts somewhat sensationally. It does that thing where a lot of narrative pods sort of act as if we don't know the rest of the story when the story starts, you know. And so it's like, did O'Donnie know and all this stuff? And then by the end it pretty conclusively shows that, no, he probably didn't and didn't really have any responsibility here.

And there's a mountain of evidence suggesting that. The one open question it expresses, which is fair, I suppose, is. How did he not know about this problem that the closest associate in his life had? And the money, yes. But also he and Ipe were so inseparable and were around each other all the time. And Ipe appears to have been betting constantly. And that's one of the things that comes across here is that even the bookie, and she does talk to the bookie, even the bookie is shocked by how much he's gambling.

And the government prosecutor is on the podcast too and talks about how he's handled cases like this all the time, dozens of cases where someone had a gambling problem and took money from an employer or something to try to deal with it, just much smaller amounts and not a celebrity, international celebrity involved, so you don't hear about it. But even the prosecutors are like, this is unbelievable. He's placing 19,000 bets.

in the course of a couple years. He's betting like all day and all night. He's betting a couple dozen bets placed on average per day. And so how did Otani not know that something was amiss? But then it also includes someone saying, well, a lot of people who have a gambling problem are really good at hiding that problem. And we've read plenty of accounts like that too, right?

Where suddenly the wife discovers that the husband has just gambled away all their money and had no idea that this was. was happening and was weighing on that person for so long. So I don't know, it's how did he sort of furtively do this while being around Dutani just constantly? But other than that, there's just such a paper trail that links him to all of this bidding behavior. Did the, did the bookie end up having criminal liability in that case? Yes, but actually a lot less than IPE.

So IPE got five years or so and the bookie just got a year. with, I think, an additional day tacked on to make him eligible for early release. I think because the bookie cooperated that seems to be and just was an open bookie. And just as soon as they raided him, he was like, yeah, I'm done basically. It's strange because, and the bookie interviews are pretty good too, because he appears to be fairly frank about all this. Who knows? But Matt Boyer is his name. And it's like she kind of presses him on, don't you feel bad about praying on people like this?

And it doesn't seem like he has a whole lot of qualms about that. And he seems to think that he has his own gambling problem, he says. And he's just like, no, I'm going to keep gambling. It doesn't sound like he's really learned his lesson. He's like, I'm going to come back better and stronger after this and not stop gambling. I'm like, okay. All right, buddy. but he's very open about the fact that he recognized that IPE had a huge problem within a month or so of first taking his money.

Oh, my God. And then he says basically it's all about if you're a bookie like this, it's all about sort of squeezing the client without totally wringing them dry because like you don't want them to go bankrupt because then they don't have any more money to fritter away on you. But you also want to take them for much of what they're. worth at least. You just kind of keep giving them enough rope to hang themselves, but like keep bailing them out and loosen the news so that they can just get in deeper and deeper and deeper. It's pretty terrible. So I do appreciate that the podcast is pretty clear-eyed about this stuff because I was wondering, because obviously ESPN has plenty of gambling entanglements, but, and I guess they could have gone even deeper into the broader societal ills of sports betting,

but they were pretty open about just how devastating this can be. And it's just you feel bad for IPEA, but then it's also hard to connect with him because he just seems so blasé about it sometimes and just naive or diluted or even the texts which were read, they hired a voice actor to do a dramatic reading of the texts that Ipe was sending to the bookie, which were largely in the affidavit.

So again, a lot of this is familiar. But he was just kind of joking about it. Remember how he was just like, boy, I'm so bad at this. You know, it's just like, L.O.L., I lost my money again. Just give me one more bump. And this will be the last, last, last one. And he asked for another one. It's just you're millions in the hole to this guy.

And even if you do have Otani's account that you think you can just raid, it's like, do you understand how deep the trouble that you're faced? She expresses some confusion about the fact that he talked to her at all in that initial conversation. Because usually, now he said and maintained at the time that he didn't realize that this was an illegal bookie, which a strange belief. Right, but taking the money out of the account. Yeah, that part. Like, how did you not, that does remain the part of it. And again, it's just, and maybe he just can't even articulate this very well to himself, but it's just like, so,

hey buddy, you're stealing and like big money, you know, like you don't have an appreciation that you're going to face criminal liability here. Right. And so most people would not have gotten on the call at all at that point. They would have clammed up and lawyered off and tried to do whatever they could to minimize their exposure. And instead, he was doing this 90-minute interview or something and spinning lots of lies mixed in with some truth. And then there's a little soundbite from the lawyer. who represented the bookie and evidently Ipe called her to ask her to represent him as well

and she couldn't because of the conflict of interest but he called her I guess as soon as he landed in LA after they came back from Korea where they were on that trip and she was like you came back like why did you come back

because as soon as he came back there were agents waiting for him and it's like a border crossing at an airport. And so they could just, and he voluntarily gave up his phone. But at that point, you can have a warrantless search at the border there. Like he totally, you know, he could have stayed where he was and maybe he would have been extradited or something at some point. But like just to fly back, la-di-da, as if like somehow this will all work out, he still at that point seemed to have no sense of how much trouble he was in. Yeah.

So now, yeah, he's in prison for a few more years. I think spring of 29 is when he would be eligible for parole. And then there will be a few years of probation after that. And, of course, he is obligated to pay back this enormous amount to Otani and the IRS and everything, which maybe he'll never be able to do. But at every turn, he just got himself into deeper trouble. And I remember talking about this on the pod. And they mentioned this on the other pod that. there was that letter that he sent to the judge to sort of say he was sorry, but also

provide some extenuating circumstances or so he thought, where it was like, I had all these expenses and I was working full-time for Otani and round the clock, and I wasn't making enough. And then my wife had to fly back and forth. And my mother had health issues, et cetera, so it was sort of talking out of both sides of his mouth because he was kind of like, I'm sorry, I shouldn't have done this. I realized that, et cetera. But then also kind of, here's why I did it, though, and why it's kind of justified or mitigated at least.

Yeah. And that actually backfired because it made it look like he was, A, not credible because some of the claims he made in that letter were contradicted. Like, evidently, it was Otani who was paying for his wife's travel and who was giving him an expensive car and everything where he was trying to make Otani sound like a cheap skate. And then also it just, you're kind of passing the buck here.

And so the judge was like not having that at all and did not show any mercy because of that. And if anything, it hurt his case, it made it look like he was trying to evade responsibility. And at that point, I guess he at least had a lawyer and was getting some sort of advice, maybe bad advice, or maybe he overrode the advice he got. But it is just, it's strange because he is kind of a man of mystery. because in the podcast, Tisha Thompson was trying to trace his history and figure out, well, where did this guy come from and how did he end up like this? And she just, she couldn't really get anything.

It was just a blank slate or just a wall. Like she talked to a couple friends of his in high school who did shed a little light in that one of them said that IPE had started going to casinos even in high school. He had maybe started gambling a little bit. But beyond that, she couldn't even figure out what he was doing for the eight years or so prior to his getting the job with the fighters in Japan. Like she just couldn't find, was he employed? What was he doing?

Where was he? Like, he's just sort of a cipher. And then, of course, fabricated a lot of his bio, as was revealed at the time. And as we talked about, where he claimed to have interpreted for players he didn't interpret for or to have degrees in educational history that he'd, didn't have and that just wasn't fact-checked by the angels at the time. And so there was a lot of, yeah, laxity and lack of scrutiny. One thing I did appreciate is that she does not let Otani's agent off the hook because he really...

Yeah, because that was one of the things that at the time, I remember, we talked about that. And he's still represented by them. Yes, yes. Nesbelello of CAA, big, high-powered agency and agent. And she tried to talk to him. He declined, obviously.

But she does note that a lot of people have asked how could the agent have let him get away with this? Because he really, like, he had this financial team. There were people employed to handle Otani's finances.

But as you'll probably recall, there was this one account that was what his MLB salary was going into that Ipe said Otani didn't want anyone to mess with, that he just wanted this to be private. And so it was sort of off limits to the people who were handling Otani's books. And Nesbelello backed that up. And basically when the people who were handling Otani's finances were like, hey, what's going on with this account? This is a pretty sizable amount of money here. And Belello just relayed what Ipe had told him that Otani didn't want anyone asking.

questions about that and never checked with Otani directly, never got a second interpreter to confirm with Otani. And I kind of get it just because Ipe had been with the fighters and so Otani probably assumed, well, he's been vetted by the team and then like I have no reason to think he is swindling me and he seems trustworthy and then it's just a package deal and everyone's kind of deferential because Otani is the valued client and if he wants Ipe to have this relationship, then okay, then it's all sort of tiptoeing around it. But it just feels like if your client's financial well-being is your responsibility, then you really have to do some extra due diligence here. Even if this was an unusual situation that you would never assume that

this guy is stealing and defrauding the way that he is and doing it so nakedly. Still, it's just to take his word for it on everything. And then, and even when the, they were contacted by ESPN. And it's like, hey, we have this story coming out and we know about all this stuff. Even at that point, it's just like, okay, IPE says he'll talk to you and he'll explain the whole thing. And Otani's still in the dark at that time. So again, it's, you know, we talked about this at the time too that like, maybe Otani was a tad too trusting, you know, just putting all this faith in his interpreter because this is not a normal interpreter-interprete relationship where. This guy is a personal assistant and is accompanying him at all times and doing all sorts of chores away from the park and everything, you know, a much more all-encompassing job than the typical interpreter who's not going to have access to finances or anything like that.

So obviously, Otani was way too trusting too. But the fact that Nesbolello is still his agent, I mean, if this had come to light, I feel like I'd be like you did not protect me here. And I don't know, maybe Otani felt like he bore some of the blame and absolved Bolelo. For all we know, I guess maybe Bolelo had, well, it doesn't seem like he ever did really question him or call him on it, though. But if Otani basically was like, hey, trustee pay in all things and he's just my, he's, you know, I give him my proxy, basically. Then I guess maybe he would feel like it wasn't Belello's fault. But yeah, after losing that much money and being embroiled in this big a scandal, even if the agent did a lot of good work for you in other areas and you felt some sort of personal loyalty there, I'd have a hard time keeping that person on the payroll and continuing to trust them with my life like that. Oh, yeah.

I mean, it wouldn't even really be the money if it were me. I don't want to overstate the case. It's still a lot of money as these things go. but like relative to what we might imagine Otani's net worth is even at that time, because obviously his eBay's malfeasans extended to, you know, went back through before his Dodgers days. But even then, like, it doesn't seem unreasonable to me that this would be regarded as a small amount. But yeah, the, the fisher that you've allowed to open just seems like it's so egregious now. to your point, maybe he felt like I should have known sooner in the fact that I didn't make some measure of this my responsibility or the failure to have anticipated this kind of deception, my responsibility.

But I think it's pretty bonkers that they are still representing him. I mean, they've obviously done a good job for him, right? Like the fact that this was legitimately sort of dropping the bucket money is a testament to how, full the bucket is. So maybe on balance he thought that it was, you know, not worth moving on to other representation, but also how hard is it to like sell Otani, you know, like any agent can do that. I'd like to see the agent who could not have gotten Otani lucrative endorsement deals and contracts given what they had to work with. So. Yeah. So there's that piece of it. But yeah, I would be very reticent to maintain that. But, you know, maybe the way that he's looking at it, or looked at it at the time, in addition to whatever individual responsibility he felt for having failed to understand who IPE was, maybe it was just too much disruption. And then by the time,

you know, he was more settled and sort of had moved on from the shock of the scandal, he, you know, felt like it wasn't worth moving on from the agent. But I don't know. I think it's bonkers. Yeah. Yeah. And one of the, the questions the podcast poses is was IPEA, obviously he was the perpetrator, but was he also sort of, well, I don't want to say victim, but you know, how much sympathy should we feel for him versus the way that the prosecutors present it, which is more that he's kind of calculating and he's sort of scheming to try to take this money. And there is a lot of evidence that that's the case that he wasn't purely trying to bail himself out of these gambling debts because

he was buying other stuff. He was buying baseball cards and having them shipped to him under a fake name at the Dodgers Clubhouse. There was one time where Otani gave him a check for dental expenses. That's what IPE told Otani and what Otani told the prosecutors. And then he did not deposit that. He didn't use that. He put it. He put that right into his own account and then just continued to raid Otani's account for those charges. And whenever he had winnings, which was fairly rare, but when he had a bet that paid off, the proceeds from that went into IPE's personal account, not back into Otani's account. So he was clearly enriching himself and sort of living large here,

and as much as he may have been pained by the idea of betraying Otani. it was not stopping him. It was not staying his hand. And clearly he seemed to be doing things with that money beyond just, oh boy, I got to pay off the scampling debt because I have this compulsive problem. So I think there's an aspect of that where he was using it, as one of the prosecutor says, sort of his personal piggy bank and thought that no one would know. And probably he convinced himself, oh, Tani has money he won't know. And obviously he didn't know. Right. Like he didn't notice at the time until the story came out. But it did go beyond that. And so I can see how it would happen if you have this sort of gambling problem. And whenever someone's in some sort of legal jeopardy, it's like I imagine myself. I try to imagine myself in that spot and kind of feel the walls closing in and the noose tightening. And it's not as if like, oh, this could have happened to anyone. Obviously not.

he got himself into this trouble. But I don't know, maybe I've watched too many Hitchcock movies where it's like the wrong man and suddenly you're accused of something you didn't do. Right. And sometimes people are unjustly accused. But in this case, like, clearly he was doing it and he was caught red-handed. And so maybe it doesn't even matter that much ultimately whether he was like, I'm just going to wet my beak a little bit here and get myself some baseball cards or whether it was

I'm desperate and I have these expenses and these. bookies are going to break my legs or something if I don't do this. Maybe it was a combination of both. Or maybe it started as one and graduated to the other. I don't know. But it's just the central mystery, which is, what were you thinking, man? And maybe it doesn't even make sense to apply sort of like a rational framework to the decision making here. Because if you have an addiction, if you have a problem like this, if it's like a mental psychological disease of some sort, then it's not as if you can just say, well, stop doing that then. I mean, and I, you know, there's some degree of personal responsibility, obviously.

Like, I'm not entirely absolving the guy. Like, there are plenty of people who have some sort of predilection to compulsions or addictions or whatever, and they manage that, or at least they don't take someone else down with them and cause some sort of international scandal and steal millions from a person. So even if you want to say, yeah, he couldn't help himself. He could have helped himself a little bit more than he did, you know. Seek help, like recognize that you have a problem, try to do something about it because there probably was a point at which he could have gone to Otani and been like, you know, and it's not entirely clear what their relationship was.

Obviously they were around each other all the time. But were they kind of like brothers, as IPE said to Tisha Thompson? Right. Or not, because that's. we're taking Ipe's word for it. And that's not worth a whole lot, obviously. And she actually resurfaces this time. I think it was in 2024 early in Otani's Dodgers tenure.

Well, obviously it was because it broke before this. Maybe it was like just when he was introduced or signed the contract or something. And they asked what the nature of his relationship with IPE was or how they got to know each other or got close or something. And Otani was like, well, we're not friends. were just business associates or something. And it's played for laughs, and everyone laughs and assumes it's a punchline and that he's kidding.

But then IPE is translating it also. Now, Otani's smiling and laughing too. Sure. And obviously, he has decent comprehension of English as we're aware. Like, he could understand something like that. But was there some truth to what he said that they weren't actually like super close?

friends or brothers that it was more of a workplace proximity associate relationship that went beyond the bounds of that normally. So I don't know. Either way, I'm sure the betrayal was very real and hurtful, but so much of the account of their bond comes from IPE. And he's a fabulous. Right. I think that you can have sympathy for IPE without sort of advocating that he not faced consequences for his behavior, right? Like I, you know, when we read the indictment, like it did strike me as, as the behavior and sort of words of someone who was deeply in the thrill of an addiction. But to your point, you know, there are great many people who struggle with addiction and don't behave this way.

don't do this, right? Endeavour to try to get help. A great many people who are not proximate to the kind of resources that IPE was who have to find their way through these things, right? So, you know, I have sympathy for what he was going through. And I do think that, you know, the behavior of the bookie is pretty indefensible and yucky, whatever, you know, whatever struggles he may have. But that doesn't mean that you can behave this way. And again, I don't know that the particulars of the money matter that much to me in that assessment. I mean, clearly the magnitude of the theft is sort of evidence of how deep into this he was.

And I think at a certain point how out of control he was, I think it's the betrayal of trust that is the most wounding aspect, right? Like, Otani's fine. And the reputational damage that he has suffered is isolated to, you know, a couple of losers on the internet, right? So it's like, it's not going to. Yeah. The last episode of the series is called The Footnote because, or Footnote, because that's the takeaway is that this probably won't stick to Otani in any real way, nor should it, seemingly. But every accomplishment that he has on the field. just sort of puts this further in the rearview mirror for him.

Now, I don't know how he could ever really recover from this because she mentions that she tries to talk to people in Japan about Ipe and just no one even wants to really acknowledge his existence. He's just kind of like it's so disgraceful what he did and not just the notoriety of having done crimes like this, but then done them to a national hero in Japan and kind of a global icon. So generally a well-liked guy who was squeaky clean prior to this.

So I don't know how he comes back from that reputational hit to himself, which was self-inflicted, obviously. Not that many people are crying for IPE probably. But yeah, for Otani, it probably makes sense for him to just want to move on from this. I guess if he did some sort of in-depth confessional interview where he, not to confess, but just to show what impact this had on him and really lay bare. Maybe he could persuade some of the people who still suspect him. Like if he opened up more about how this affected him and how he felt about it,

the way that many people who are less private probably would, just about how this betrayal really impacted his life. Because a lot of it, other than that initial statement where he didn't take questions or anything, We're all just sort of, I don't know, we're just, you know, inferring how this might feel deducing, but it's not coming from the man himself. So maybe that would get more people on his side if he were to speak about it in a really emotional, affecting way. But he's doing fine. You know, he's doing just fine on the field with his family seemingly.

It's not like this has hurt him in endorsements or anything. And it's just a small subset of people, I think, who continued. to believe that there was some undoing on his part. And people who really, I think probably for the most part, haven't done the homework of seeing what we know, right? Because they would rather just be like, oh, yeah, this is a cover-up. Like, whatever I would read about this is probably just part of the cover-up.

And so this can't possibly change my mind because they have a grudge against him or the Dodgers or just because it's a more sensational story if he did it. I understand the initial questions. So everyone had them at the time. And Matt Payer, the bookie, he says that he assumed that it probably was Otani. Because he didn't know Otani. He never talked to Otani himself.

He only knew IPE. And then when he saw these wire transfers coming from Otani's account, he didn't know for sure. But he thought, yeah, it's probably Otani. And Ipe is just the beard, just the person who is the front for this. Because evidently, that is not an unknown or uncommon thing. and this rookie at least says that he has other professional athlete clients who bet on sports other than the ones that they play.

And so this relationship, it has happened. And if there wasn't this enormous record of years of text messages and wire transfers, and evidently, IPE called the bank like 24 times or something and said that he was Otani, and it's, you know, right there on the recording and everything. So if this was not extraordinarily well, documented, then yeah, you could have persistent questions, but there's just so much out there. Yeah. And Otani cooperated fully with the government, according to the prosecutors, and was also an open book with them.

And so, no, I have really no lingering suspicions. Did he, at any time, look the other way about this trouble that Ipe was in, or should he have, I don't know, expressed some more concerned about that. Could he have told that something was up? Should he certainly have been more vigilant about his finances and all of that relationship and everything? Yeah, or maybe to some of that, at least. But beyond that, I don't really have any questions. And I don't know how anyone could read the affidavit or the reporting or listen to this podcast and still really have those questions. So probably the strategy of just, well, this was a chapter. That book is closed. I'd rather not revisit it. It can't really benefit me to do so in a public way. And we'll just move on. But of course,

you can't completely move on or you can, but the public might not necessarily because then this podcast comes out. And remember, that TV series is still in the works as far as we know. Yeah, this is not the end of the Otani Ipe saga. It was reported last December, at least. I don't know if there's been any update since that there was a series about this in development at Star And I don't know whether that will come to fruition. Listening to this podcast doesn't really answer my questions about what this would look like as a TV series. Yeah.

A lot of it is still just like guy placing bets on his phone. Right, yeah. I don't know how well that translates to TV or a dramatic series necessarily, especially when the guy is such a mystery, though I guess that means that you can just kind of create your own interpretation, so to speak, your own vision of a VP. But still, it's like just furtively going around gambling and sending text to your bookie to say, can I get a bump? Does that make for compelling TV viewing?

I don't know. I wouldn't think so. We just dissected this one so thoroughly at this point, right? The persistent conspiratorial thinking piece of it is just so interesting to me. It's just like, I'm not saying this, like, the United States government has a perfect. prosecutorial record or anything like that. But what possible motivation would there be for the DOJ to be like shielding Otani from responsibility here?

Yeah. It just doesn't make any sense. And LB, sure, I get why you might think, oh, they don't want to tarnish the golden goose or something. Okay. Yes. But the other parties involved in this, the prosecutors, if anything, that goose might be a feather in their cap, right?

If they were to bring down Otani or something. So, yeah. Anyway, it's maybe worth a listen if you aren't familiar with the details already or if you just want to hear it. And if you can stomach some uncut gems secondhand anxiety, just imagining the plight that IPE was in and how he was trying to bail himself out just completely incompetently and just getting into deeper water. It's all there. It's a six-part series. it's 30 to 40 minutes-ish per episode, and that's including credits and ads and everything.

So it's not an enormous amount to take in. But I think probably a lot of people are ready to push past this story and move on to more modern current events pertaining to Dodgers' financial malfeasance and other questions swirling around the finances of that team and how it has funded itself. So, yeah, I mean, this is small beans. Maybe I pay was 40 million in dead and stole 16 million or whatever it was, but compared to the billions that we're discussing where Mark Walter is concerned.

And that investigation and the money that he's moving around right now. And again, how exactly the Dodgers are connected to that, all somewhat murky. And there's ongoing reporting on that. topic, but yeah, maybe everyone has just moved on to other Dodgers-related financial scandals, which would be, I suppose, understandable at this stage. We will see. It's a complicated soup, and the spectrum of answers there ranges from just like sheer

and simple overextension to criminality. And until we know the exact answers, I do hesitate to speculate. but yeah, a new thing all the time. Do you think Rob Manfred's really pissed about how the second half has gone here? Right? Because you have the Dodgers potentially embroiled in some sort of financial scandal and just like the most mediocre American league playoff race. It's like you want a competitive balance, buddy?

You got it. It sucks. Yeah, I wonder because on the one hand, the Dodgers have been, a useful foil for the other owners and for Rob Manfred. A lot of their messaging has concerned the Dodgers specifically. So anything that makes the Dodgers look even more scheming and rubbing their hands together and just getting one up on everyone, maybe that furthers the case. Then again, if it's because they're doing things that are legally questionable or Mark Walter was

or whether the Dodgers are directly implicated in that or not, they're part. They're part of the Walter's financial empire. And so maybe it's like fruit of the poisonous tree or something. That's not exactly the right context to use that term. But you know what I mean? You're still in jury. Yeah, exactly. That phrase never actually came up on jury do that.

It was disappointing. I watched so much good wife and good fight for this. And that comes up all the time. Fruit of the Poisonous Tree. Chinese wall never heard either of those terms uttered during my jury duty. But wasn't that kind of crum. Anyway, yes, you could question is everything about the Dodgers tainted if Walter was having double dealings and misdeeds to fund their acquisition or who knows because it's all this big soup of assets. And so it was also intertwined.

And that was maybe part of the problem that can you actually say, well, the Dodgers are entirely separate from this. But we will see what the fallout from that is. But yeah, I wonder because Big Bad Dodgers, that's been kind of a focus of MLP's messaging when it comes to getting people on board with the salary cap. So for all I know, maybe this furthers their aims because people are even more up in arms about the Dodgers. And there's actually some smoke and possibly some fire to some aspects of that at least and the TV deal and all the rest of it. Maybe that only furthers his aims. I don't know about the competitive balance part, though, because yes, on the one hand, the mediocrity slash parody of the teams and the standings and the races, it does sort of

suggests that we have competitive balance currently, which undercuts his case that we need to overhaul the whole economic system in order to engineer competitive balance. But then also everyone agrees that these teams are trash, kind of. And so even if they're similarly calibrated kind of trash and none of these teams are good, but they're all equally lackluster. Is that even exciting? And do we want to devote so much time to talking about these most mediocre teams, which is what the playoff format forces us to do?

Because we're all just hyper-fixated on the wildcard race, which means we're talking about teams that are somewhere in the vicinity of 500 instead of talking about the best teams, not that the best teams are even that good this year. So, yeah, it is a strange set of circumstances. Do you want to ask me again if Cal Raleigh is on the comeback trail? Because like you asked and then he homered again. And I will continue to say that like it's all gravy and I don't know.

But I think you should ask again and we should just see like scientifically if that results in him hitting another home run. Sure. Because like. Is the is the Cal Raleigh Rally Raleigh real after his fourth consecutive at bat with a homer? Rally Raleigh. Orally. Raleigh, Raleigh, Raleigh. You're Raleigh.

Raleigh, Raleigh. Here's a fun little fact about me and my last name. Like, really only the kids in my part of the family say Raleigh. Everyone else says Raleigh. And I asked my dad one time, like, does it bother you? We all say our last name wrong. He's like, yeah. And I was shocked it didn't bother him more.

I was like, how did this happen? He's like, I don't know. He's just all. So you say it like? Cowell does, basically? No, I say... You say it, right. Well, I say it how I say it.

I don't think it's right or wrong. It's just how I say it. But like, if you were to go to a family reunion of my dad's family, there would be a lot of Raleys. Okay. I've always said Rally for what it's worth. I don't know if that's because you told me that, but there's a W there. There's a W there. I know.

Yeah. I mean, clearly I agree. but it wasn't like a anyway here's fun facts about meg's family is it about dysfunction it's just about us all being ourselves i guess so the cow comeback is real that's uh that's what i'm asking you could be you don't know could be could be could be coming back could be a little blimp we don't know we we have yet to learn about the you know august character of the dumper we Okay, well, we'll continue to monitor that. Maybe the Phillies are just tired.

Yeah, that could be too. We've done so much winning lately. This is going to feel mean to Phillies fans, but also they're going to agree with me. So it's okay because like directionally it's true and also spiritually I'm aligned with them. If you hit a home run off of Aeronola, like it doesn't even count, you know?

Who hasn't done that? Those are a dime a dozen. Yeah. Right. What other aspect of financial malfeasance? Maybe malfeasance is too strong. Misappropriation. I don't know.

You can tell me which term. Shenanigans? Do you think there are shenanigans? Yeah, misdeeds. I was wondering whether even to banter about the ballpark deals that have broken recently because we've had big developments in both the Royals and Ray's stadium situations with major influxes. of public funding, as always.

And I was want to mention it because I do think it's an important story, but it's the same story every single time. I have very little new to say about this. So the Kansas City Council approved a $600 million pledge for the Royal Stadium, which would be in downtown Kansas City. This was last week. And so they have pledged, the Royals pledged $760 million. of the estimated costs.

Then there was the 600 million, the club in the city trying to secure an additional 540 million from the state government. So the price tag for the public is going up and up and up. And I was reading about this at the indispensable field of schemes where I don't know how Neil DeMas manages to continue to chronicle this decades into his chronicling of this story that never ever changes. But his headline on a recent round, round up of all of this was Royals Mega TIF, not TIF as in TIFFF, but TIF, which is a public document,

a tax increment financing. Well, that's a fun little bit of wordplay, isn't it? Yeah, it's just to fund infrastructure projects, etc. Royals Megatiff could see Missouri taxpayers covering John Sherman's entire $1.9 billion stadium tab. So that's nice. He also had a recent post that was headlined KC to spend extra $7 million a year. on paying off royals bonds just to avoid public vote, because that's another aspect of these and royals situations.

I tried to blend those two teams. The rails, they are just kind of trying to ram this through with as little public scrutiny and referenda as possible. Oh, good. Just to sort of, yeah, let's just get this out before people are really familiar with the details. And then the Reyes Stadium deal with Tampa,

same sort of stuff. The headline on this roundup posted field of schemes, latest raised stadium plan includes waterfall fund that could drive public costs past $2 billion. This was a Friday news dump where all this stadium plan paperwork came out. And again, milestone agreements, Neal's blue sky post about this at the Field of Schemes account.

And this was in response to the raise funding details. would this $2 billion-plus-raised stadium subsidy deal be worse for taxpayers than the Royals plan announced last week? Either would be the biggest stadium public cost in MLB history. If they both pass, all that's left to determine is who's number one and who's 1A. So either way, record-setting. And I also saw a post on Blue Sky, which is from Lynn Hurtack, who's a member of the Tampa City Council and a mayoral candidate in Tampa who, linked to a Tampa Bay Times piece about this and said, to be clear, city council did not even

see this quote-unquote agreement until almost 12 hours after the paper somehow managed to report on its existence. I remain extremely concerned about the amount of secrecy and misdirection involved in this proposal. So it seems like, yeah, shenanigans apply. It's just kind of trying to let's rush this through before the public is aware or objects or even. Even the city council maybe knows what's going on in some cases. And it's just the same playbook that we have seen from time and memorial. The Field of Scheme's book, original version, came out in 1998, I think. And we had Neil and J.C. Bradbury, the economist and academic who is always covering this stuff too.

They were on the pod just a little over two years ago, episode 2161, and they were basically saying, yeah, nothing has changed because his, part of the impetus for that conversation was like, are there some signs of pushback and are people's eyes open? And is there some resistance? And our team owners and franchise is not going to be getting these handouts anymore. And Neil and JC were

basically throwing cold water on that idea. And just like, yeah, it's the same as ever. And in fact, J.C. has a book about this coming out next month. And it's called, This One Will Be Different. False promises and fiscal realities of publicly funded stadiums. So,

same deal where it's just like, you know, everyone, they get some sort of economic study that is, the books are cooked so that they make it look like, yeah, this is going to drive so much revenue and it's going to employ all these people and it's just going to magically generate. And it's all kind of moving money around and, okay, if people are spending money on this, then they're probably just not spending on something else in that locality. It's not all new money. And then the whole idea of like taxes that this will just pay for itself because we're not actually asking you for money. We're just going to take tax proceeds. But obviously the tax proceeds, whatever, could have gone to something else, right? You're not just actually printing money. That's a crime too.

So I don't know. I feel like I need to note it each time. But it's almost, it's hardly worth talking about at length because it's just like, well, this is the way it works. I don't see how it's going to change. And I think some members of the public don't care or are just kind of in the boat of, well, I don't want to lose my team, which I get. And so maybe I won't even notice or feel the shortfalls that will happen as a result of this. And can you even quantify? Okay, because this public handout was done, that means that this other thing didn't get done or there was less funding for schools or whatever it is.

It's always hard to trace it to that one thing because it's part of a big pile of money, sort of like the Mark Walter's situation. So I don't know if the public protests in certain cases but hasn't really been able to muster a coordinated nationwide response to put a stop to this. And you have these kind of captured local government officials who do this, whether because they're subjected to pressure and they don't want to be. the ones who are blamed for a team relocating or because they're doing it for perks and because they want to get free tickets or they want to feel like big shots or whatever it is. It's just it's the same blueprint repeated over and over and over again. And I don't know, even if Jaycee and Neil can keep up the campaign for decades on end, it's just we'd be reiterating the same points every time. It's, I think, always worth noting even if it does.

doesn't result in a dramatic change to the model. Because I do think that the sentiment around it is appreciably different than it used to be, even if the result doesn't end up changing that much. Like, I think that most taxpayers understand this sort of behavior as a form of, like, extortion, even if they end up caving, because there have been enough owners who have sort of made good on the idea that if you don't pay up, they're going to move for it to be a real threat. But everybody understands what that threat looks like. And you do have examples of municipalities refusing to sort of play ball or their voters

refusing to play ball. And the team leaves. Coyotes don't play here anymore, you know. Sorry. That was partially my fault. I voted no on that stadium project. Seattle still doesn't have an NBA team. Now, it sounds like,

it sounds like we're going to get one. And then it's like, are you the Sonics again? What does that mean? Then they come up with some end around often. Well, sometimes the team will back down and you call their bluff and actually they aren't really prepared to relocate. But sometimes...

They go to Kansas. Yeah, sometimes they do. They get a better deal. Yeah, like the chiefs did, right? And so that threat is always looming, and sometimes team owners will explicitly mention it. And I mean, that's been quite effective, even if it's just like sure would be a shame if anything happened to this team in this area. And no one wants to be tarred with that brush of, yeah, I was the one who said, no, and that's why you don't have a team anymore. Because the idea of a billion dollars or whatever it is in public funding, it's somewhat nebulous.

Whereas a team and a physical ballpark, well, that's very tangible. And if you don't have a team anymore in your area that you structured a large part of your life around, you're going to feel that loss in a way that maybe the money that's not going to something it could have been going to, you would have been oblivious to or it wouldn't have affected you personally or something. But they've gotten wise to this when there is pushback as there was in the Royal's situation, because there was a sales tax ballot measure a couple years ago, I think, which was related to a previous stadium site. And then that failed.

And voters said no. And so this time around, okay, let's do this without a public referendum, because that might go against us. And maybe no one will know or we won't suffer any consequences for this. So it is even more shadowy than it once was. Maybe you do have to make it a little less out in the open. But it seems like they keep finding Patsies or willing participants to do that. So it doesn't seem to have stymied team owners' ambitions, one whit.

Right. It definitely doesn't. But I do think that there is a greater understanding of this stuff. But you're right. It hasn't. And it sucks because it's like it does make sense to have your ballpark downtown. You know, I'm not opposed to that. I mean, I think they have a perfectly good stadium there, it seems like.

So that's a bummer. They can have the fountain. They should reposition the fountain because it does mess with this underfield camera pretty frequently. It's like, but Coffin's beautiful. Yeah. Coffman's beautiful. And they've spruced it up. And sure, it's one of the older ballparks at this point.

But it's really nice. But it is way out there. And when I went there to cover the World Series in 2015 as a non-driver, I was like, Oh, I bet that was a nightmare. How do I get here? Like, how do I get back to my whole? hotel after this game. This is a problem. How did you do that? Did you just...

I think I think I had to just get a car or something. This was like before ride sharing really. So I think I must have just called a taxi service or something. I was with Grantland at the time. I just expensed it or whatever. But it was late because I was closing down the press box, writing about the game. And then it was hard to... So yeah, like it would be convenient if you could have it in walking distance for a lot of people. but it's just at what cost.

Well, two billion bucks. Exactly. It's great to have your ballpark downtown. I, you know, one of the many things

about T-Mobile, and this is true even of Chase, although you don't want to walk around right now because it's 115. I'm going to do a big swear. Shane's going to bleep it, but everyone's going to know what I'm about to say.

115 degrees. Bark to be on the downsway. El Niño, I hate you. But being able to walk to other stuff after and, you know, depending on the sort of viability of your public transit, like, I'm going to, I'm going to go home in a couple of weeks and visit the family and do my annual long pilgrimage to the Northwest. And I'm just going to be able to take the train from my folks down to various sporting events. Beautiful. And then afterwards,

The entire city is my oyster for having food after. I'll probably eat literal oysters. I don't eat oysters in the desert. I will eat seafood here, but I draw the line at oysters partially because no one here knows how to chuck and like, shuck them. Ben, there's a, we got a shucker shortage in my opinion. I've had some oysters here and I'm like, this isn't chucked well, you know, but what are you going to do? You're going to, you're going to send them back in the desert? Like, what are your expectations, you know?

I'm pretty adventurous when it comes to oysters because I have been unscathed thus far. I'm sure the first bad shellfish experience I had, I would be conditioned not to do that. But I just, I'm an oyster fiend. Oh, yeah. So until I get burned, I will continue to consume them. Oh, to be clear, the oyster itself was actually quite nice. Was my carbon footprint that evening good? No, surely not.

we'll admit to my own failings there. But no, it wasn't that the oyster was bad. Like, it wasn't bad shellfish. It was just not well shucked. And so there were little bits of shell in the... Oh, yeah. That's not... That's the issue.

And look, I, despite coming from the Northwest, and having eaten oysters, like, literally off the beach with my grandpa, did he have a license? I don't know. But he says his last name different than me, so it doesn't matter. I, despite that, cannot shuck an oyster either. This is a failing of mine.

I do not a, I do not have a shucker acumen. Yeah. Do you need a course for that? Do you need to get a qualification? Is that? No, but people do, you know, you have to learn how to do it. You got to do it. Right.

Yeah. And there is, there's a real range of skill level. In fact, I have complimented shuckers before. And then they look at me like, I'm crazy. And I'm like, well, I don't know. Like, if it's not done well, and you end up with little bits of shell in your oyster when you're trying to, you know, and you're like, professional someone who's oyster certified.

This is me appreciating their skill, you know, just like if they can, I don't know, make a nice rue. It's like, that's a skill. Can't do that either. Bad gravy maker. Are you good at making gravy? Nope, but I don't like gravy. Oh, you're not a good.

You're not a sauce guy really, though, right? Yeah, I like some condiments, but you're not really. really a sauce. Not sauce so much. You're not a sauce. I'm not so saucy. I'm a sauce enthusiast. I love a sauce, you know. Coming out against gravy, that's going to lead to some backlash. Gravy has a high approval rating, I think, but it's just a little too heavy for me. I don't think that gravy is a food that, like, has shooters, you know? Like, I think in part because, well, maybe it's wrong to say it's not like culturally specific. It has so many examples across different culinary traditions that I don't think people feel

possessive of gravy the way they do like, you know, if you were like, I hate Bolognese. Then we'd get emails and I would be looking at it. Right. Because that's crazy. It would be crazy to hate Bolognese, you know. Yeah. Okay. My one quibble, by the way, I meant to mention my one penantic note about the betrayal of Shohei Otani.

It is Nippon-ham fighters, not Nippon-ham fighters. They went with the more fun emphasis. I think so. I mean, yeah, it's spelled the same, obviously, but the intonation, the emphasis makes me think, because it was very much a Nippon-ham fighters as opposed to Nippon-ham fighters. We all wish it were ham fighters. We all wish the team. We wanted to be the ham fighters so bad.

We want little, little oinky guys and gals with little, you know, like little shields. Yes. But unfortunately, no, it's not the case. But look, I may have made that mistake at some point in my life. Right. Who among us? Yeah, Napan Ham is a company and they are the fighters. What do they make?

Well. I've never looked because I've always hoped that the answer is that they are like some sort of like grocery conglomerate. And so one could architect a scenario, which they are hand fighters. I think it's more of a food processing conglomerate. Oh. Definitely a conglomerate. It's food adjace?

Well, aren't they all conglomerates? Yeah. The company's on the MPB teams. Yeah. So, so the hope remains. You're right that that is not the emphasis. But like, I wonder if they've ever gotten kind of cheeky and like, done a promotion that has like a little, you know, feisty pig.

Yeah, I guess the pigs probably don't put up much of a fight, unfortunately, for them when it comes to the meatpacking. Whomp? I'm spared any moral issues about bacon consumption because I, this is, I mean, now, when I said I was anti-gravy, maybe people will not condemn me for that. But being anti-bacon, that's a different story, I think, because people are pretty passionate about bacon. I know, but it's not 2009 anymore.

it's nobody's entire personality. Maybe. Like now they're excited about Bucky's or whatever the hell. Yeah. Never was a big bacon guy. And so I'm... That's fine. Yeah.

And my wife is a vegetarian, mostly for moral reasons, just kind of not wanting to... It's like, you know, we got a dog and she had had cats and she just felt bad about eating animals. And pigs specifically, I think, even if I like... They're really smart. I'm more of a pescatarian or a... I don't know. I eat chicken and fish, and that's pretty much it, meat-wise, for the most part.

But I'm kind of glad that I'm spared wrestling with the morality of bacon because, yeah, pigs are pretty smart. They're very smart. What is actually the distinction between my dog and a pig other than the fact that one is believed to be cuter and is more of an indoor pet? So, yeah. Yeah. I mean, Brunken doesn't poop everywhere, presumably. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah, but... Give a time. Yeah. So, anyway, I'm not trying to bacon shame anyone, but yeah, it's more of a poyopestitarian or something like that would be for me. Is it a flavor thing for you? Yeah, it's more of a flavor slash health slash just this is less grizzly and chewy texture kind of thing. I don't know. Oh, yeah.

I mean, Krisby, I am not like bonkers for bacon. the primary at-home animal protein that gets consumed in this household is chicken or fish. But there are times when like a piece of crispy bacon, like on a BLT, I do enjoy that. But also, it's not something I have very often. And, you know, really the thing that matters is the quality of the tomato. Everybody get your tomato time in because we're coming up on the close of the season, you know? And then what are you going to do? you'll have to have bolanese.

You'll have to have it in the form of sauce, you know, because once they're out of season, it's just like a, I had a, okay, I'm going to stop talking about food, I promise, but last Christmas when I was up in the Northwest, I, like, took leave of my senses and forgot, oh, I'm in Washington in December and not, like, in Arizona, and I had avocado toast, and I was, like, it was terrible because the avocado wasn't very good. But what was I expecting? You know, having an avocado in Washington in December. Of course it's going to be garbage.

Yeah, that seems wise. That's like oysters in Arizona. I guess you've got to be judicious. And if you get something good, well, that's just gravy, especially if it's literally gravy, which it wouldn't be for me. So I know we talked about how we probably talked too much about the mediocre wildcard teams because that's where the race is. and that's kind of where the emphasis gets placed

with how the playoff field is structured. Not that there aren't some division races that we could talk about too, obviously in the central, in the West. But even then, it's sort of the same lump of teams that are kind of in those races and in the AL Wildcard race and the other division races

aren't as exciting, even though the Phillies are kind of within striking distance. The Cubs have kind of made it closer, are interesting at times. You know, Yankees are only four back of the raise as we speak. But, yeah, so much of the emphasis is on these teams that we'll be lucky to end up at 500. So here I am being part of the problem, I suppose. But if you had to evaluate this dispassionately and setting your fandom aside, or let's just say that the Mariners win the West, and so you can remove your personal biases and convictions from this conversation, which of the, you,

These AL wildcard contenders, let's say, all the teams that are within five games or so of a playoff spot in the American League, which of them deserves it the most? Which of them should win this thing? And that could be however you want to evaluate that, how good the team actually is, how long their fans have suffered, how much ownership has tried to put a winner on the field. is there one winner you think, oh, this would be best for baseball or this would be the most merited victory, even if ultimately, because it's kind of going to come down to a coin flip, right?

Whoever wins this thing, it's probably going to be by not much more than a game or two, which is well within the margin of error when it comes to luck and sequencing, not even talking about injuries and one-run games and all the rest of it, right? So it could go any which way. So if you were loading the dice one way or another,

and not out of personal animus for any fan base, but just, you know, what would be the best outcome for the most people or for baseball writ large in some way? We are removing from the possible contenders, the race and the white socks, because they are both division winners and, you know, comfortably above 500, as well as the Yankees and Red Sox, right?

No sock-related teams, right? Because the East teams are good and the White Sox are exciting. I'm going to include Houston just because, like, the West is a trash fire. So Houston, Cleveland, Texas, Baltimore, Seattle, Minnesota, Toronto, and Detroit. So the only teams that we are eliminating from contention for this question are the Royals, the Athletics, and the Angels, correct? Yes, them and the four teams that probably are in safe position, barring some white season close. Yeah, so the very good and the very bad, no, no dice, but the rest are sort of fair game. Well, just from a pure run differential perspective, I feel like the answer is the Tigers,

because they are the only one of those clubs that has a run differential that's in positive territory. And, you know, a better run differential than either the race or the White Sox. So if we're judging it from just like an underlying quality perspective, I guess you could make an argument for them. Although they sold heavy at the deadline. And so I don't know if I want to reward that behavior from a best for the sport because we like to see investment in the roster. I think you can make a case for Toronto because coming off of their World Series loss, they were like, well, we're going to load back up and ride again. That has not gone well for them. They did this weird deadline thing where they like traded away important players but also got some guys who are good.

So what do we make of their posture and their understanding on themselves? I find the situation surrounding the Orioles and like the posture. They took at the deadline to be kind of bleh. And so I don't know that I really want to reward them, the Mariners. I had the thought the other day. And by the other day, I mean literally yesterday when, you know, the, The Mariners had a three-run lead on Philly. Andres Munoz came in to close the game.

I had Phillies broadcast on Kalele, like that booth. And they're talking about how Andres Munoz is tied for the lead in like blown saves. And there were sometimes where he was not locating well. And I was just sitting there and I was like, I'm sorry, is the thing that I want to watch this team more? Is that actually what I'm asking for? what's kind of a bonkers position to put yourself in, isn't it? So there's that. I think honestly, the team that I would maybe be the most interested in and that might be the best for baseball, quote unquote,

but sort of in an abstract way, would be for Cleveland to make it in because at least as the field is constituted now, now over the next month, this could change. But I don't think it's good for the sport to have a sub-500 team in the place. playoff field. And I think that to the extent that we can sort of lard up that field with small market clubs, so as to say, what do you mean, Rob, we've got plenty of competitive balance. Just look at these teams. It's maybe to the sports benefit. And I enjoy that pitching staff. And I like Stephen Vote. And we can further our answer to Sam's question with continued postseason success there.

It is, as Michael Bauman wrote for us today, pretty overwhelming offense, all things considered. So is it likely to be an extended run from them? I mean, surely not. The team that I think would be the most fun to have in there just because I'd like to see him play more in the postseason would be Bobby Wood Jr.'s royals, but they are too bad to even be considered for this exercise.

And they've been playing well lately, but yeah, you have to be pretty bad to be out of the playoff picture in the American League, and they're bad enough, I think, to qualify. They're pretty bad. So I think my answer might be Cleveland. And right now, like, sure, Houston, you know, take the wheel. I just hope that whatever team emerges from the West manages to be at least a 500 baseball team. because, again, I really don't think it's good.

And it must be so, can you imagine, can you imagine you're the Arizona Diamondbacks and you're looking at the AL field and you're just like, these gibronies? And we're sitting here a game out? I know. Yeah, there must be a lot of NL teams that are just thinking. League distinctions are immaterial today. These don't even mean anything anymore. These are just kind of arbitrary.

It's based on history, but there's no actual difference between them. or if circumstances had conspired to place us in that race, it wouldn't even be a race because we would be running away with this thing. So, yeah, sometimes that's just how the cookie crumples. But I think it's likely that whichever teams make the playoffs will be at least 500 because that team will have outplayed these other teams down the stretch. And so as we speak, the Astros are 500. The Guardians are a game above 500.

I think it'll probably end up that way where one team will have a decent next month or so and will emerge barely with a winning record or at least 500, and we will be spared the indignity of a losing team being a playoff team. But it's hard to parse this because each team has different arguments in favor of it. I would have been inclined to say the Tigers, but I think I'm with you that that ship has sailed, that they have rendered themselves. And it's tough because the fans didn't have a say in trading Terrick Scouble.

Yeah, that's not their fault. Yeah. And so I'm taking into consideration fans and also players and teams. And so the Tigers do deserve it in a sense in that they have a plus 70 run differential and all these other teams are in the red. Some of them buy a lot.

Some of them buy a lot. And so there's part. of me that wants that performance to be recognized and for some order to be restored. I like that baseball is weird and random unpredictable stuff happens. And sometimes you do get a team that was outscored that wins and makes the playoffs. And we should allow some room for that. Because I don't think we would want records always to perfectly match run differentials, even if the run differentials themselves are somewhat unpredictable. But I do like on some level just, huh, this team seems to be scoring a lot more runs than its opponents. So that should be

rewarded at some point. That is kind of the goal of the game on some level. And I know that they have a really lousy back of the bullpen. And so they have squandered a lot of leads. So that is part of it, too. But it's not just that. So I do think, though, that they've made their case a lot less sympathetic when they traded Scoobel and Mize. Sorry to the fans who didn't want them to do that and are just dragged along for the ride. But I do not want to normalize, I guess, dealing at the deadline when you are close to contention and then being rewarded for that.

And it was one thing a couple of years ago when the Tigers had that turnaround post-deadline. That was kind of a different case because that was wildly improbable and it was such an incredible comeback. This year, it wouldn't have even been that weird if that had happened. So if that were to happen,

I think that would sort of set a bad precedent or double down on one. And yeah, I guess you could say sort of the same thing about Baltimore. And on the one hand, I want the Orioles to win just because it is sort of depressing to have that team that was so young and promising just flatline and not actually get a playoff win out of that core. And now that's being disassembled. and those fans suffered through several really terrible seasons with the promise of playoffs beyond that.

And so if they have kind of a White Sox-esque failure to launch on the other side of that rebuild, even though the White Sox themselves provide an inspirational counter to that, which is, yeah, you might bottom out, but then a couple of years you'll be back on top again. So that's exciting. But that's easier said than none. So, yeah, the fact that the Orioles, though,

did deal at the deadline, and even though Michael I said, we still believe in these guys, and we're still going for it, we're not totally throwing in the towel, it's still the same sort of playbook. The Rangers, I don't know, they won a couple years ago, right? If you won within the last three years,

even if you had never won one before that, I don't know that you can have the strongest case. And I feel like that team, there are certainly individual players who are quite compelling. and exciting and that I would root for, but somehow that's like a low visibility team for whatever reason.

I just think they don't have the strongest case relative to some of the others here. Nothing against them. And then you have the twins, which is another case of a disconnect between fans and ownership, because the twins just have not invested in that roster, really at all. And this deadline, it was refreshing that they didn't subtract further from it. They just added some guys out of it. and relievers or whatever.

That was a nice contrast to dealing their entire bullpen last year. But that ownership group and the poll ads and just like they have made really no effort to maximize their chances to make the playoffs. And so I kind of don't want that to be rewarded, even though it would be fun for the fans if the ones who stood by the team, even though ownership was doing its best to drive them away for them to be rewarded for their faith and for, say, Byron Buxton and other players like that to get to be on a playoff team this year.

That would be nice, but I still, I think they don't have the most compelling case. So then you've got the teams that have the long-suffering fan bases, Cleveland, Seattle, and the teams that have the longest droughts or have never won one in the Mariners case.

So I think in a kind of cosmic sense, they probably deserve it. The Astros, they won a lot lately, right? And, you know, they had their time. And even if we're not looking for some kind of carmic comeuppance for past sign stealing or something to balance the scales, like, you know, Astros fans have had it pretty good over the past decade plus in terms of winning teams. And this just feels like a shadow of its former self and like they're on the downslope. And yeah, one more run would be nice for them and for their fans. but they don't have the best argument either.

It would be so funny if this was the year of the Marishwanda down World Series. That would be so funny. It would, yeah. And the Guardians, you could say some of the same things about their ownership and how they have not been exactly the most aggressive when it comes to upgrading that roster,

but you kind of have to separate ownership from the front office, from the fan base, from the players, and so, yes, you could say it's on ownership, if they don't make it. But then do you want to make the fans suffer for that, punish them? And the front office has done a good job of keeping them in contention despite the financial constraints.

There's some fun players on that team. How fun would it be if Jose Ramirez delivered a championship to Cleveland after standing by the team in the city for so long? So maybe 1948 is a trump card. And even though the guardians have been perennially, close to contention at least, if not actually in the playoffs. So it's not as if they've suffered as deeply when it comes to regular season results. But maybe that just, maybe that takes the cake when you haven't won for that long.

But there's an argument for the Mariners too. As you said, though, Toronto has a really strong case because they kind of had that same, wow, this is a super exciting, compelling core, and is this really all they're going to get out of it? And then last year, they said, no, we're going to get more and we're going to keep Vladdy. And then Vladdy forgets how to hit homers everywhere, but especially in Toronto. And they had that super exciting run last year. And then everyone regresses. And it's tough because they didn't really rest on their laurels.

They were going for it. They were adding Dillon Seas. They were trying to upgrade. They were getting Okamoto and on and on. And so you would kind of like to see them rewarded for investment. in that team and trying to turn it into a powerhouse. It's, you know, when a team like the Mets or the Blue Jays says, hey, no, we're going to go for it, and we're going to try to beat the Dodgers at their own game, and we're going to ante up.

And then if they have a really depressing season, then maybe that discourages the next owner who might be willing to take that plunge. So looking at it from that perspective and what's good for the game, maybe to reward going for it is good. or you could say rewards not really going for it like the Guardians and winning anyway because then that suggests that you don't actually it's not pay to play or pay to win, right? So there are a lot of competing perspectives on this. And obviously the fan bases involved couldn't care less about any other fan bases. It's like, yeah, okay, you know what?

You have a stronger case. You've laid claim to this playoff berth. I will cede our claim and you guys can go to the playoffs. No, if you're a fan and you have a rooting interest, then that is overriding as it should be. But I'm not going to say Toronto. I just, I think it would be really nice if that core won what's left of it and following the investments they made and the really close call last year and how exciting that city and country were about it. You know, that would be, that would be really nice, I think, if Toronto won one. And it's been a while for Toronto, too.

You're probably muted because of the landscapers, so you couldn't do the song. Ha-ha. They saved me from it's been a while. Anyway, I'm going to go, going to go Blue Jays here, but Guardians have a strong case too. Been a while.

It's too late now. You can't do it after the fact. If the landscapers screw with your ability to do it in real time, that ship has sailed. Anyway, this podcast has probably sailed. So I think I'd probably rank it Jay's Guardians, Mariners in terms of just how

deserved it feels to me. Not that that matters to anyone who's rooting for one of these teams. And anyway, we talked a lot about money stuff and finances. And I did also want to say that when we're talking about millions and billions, one of the insidious things about some of the financial crimes slash impropriety slash corruption that we are regularly reading about these days is that it almost makes all this other stuff seem like small beans. Like there was a part of me that read about $2 billion in public funding for a ballpark.

And I'm just like, man, I mean, the federal debt is $40 trillion now. This is like chump change. This is like you find this in the couch cushions, right? And a federal budget deficit is different from a, a local subsidy, obviously. But when I'm constantly reading about, you know, going straight to the top and the president enriching himself by billions of dollars a year via

crypto schemes or whatever, I mean, it's just, it seems so rampant. I think that's one of the things that almost makes me want to just shrug and say, oh, yeah, it's another public funding arrangement. Well, what else is new? Like, the rot goes really deep. But then if you allow yourself to get resigned to all of that, then that makes it even easier to keep perpetuating those things. So you kind of have to stay vigilant as depressing and defeating as it sometimes is to read about just scandal upon scandal upon instance of corruption.

It doesn't make it okay even if the numbers are just so vast that it makes any one particular case. seem almost insignificant by comparison. I agree. Okay. All right, we've got to wrap up because of very loud landscapers immediately outside Meg's window. So rude of them to interfere in the end of our podcast recording. That will do it for today. Thanks, as always, for listening, but not for landscaping.

You can landscape while you listen. That's perfectly fine. One follow-up from yesterday about what to call the Pete Crowe Armstrong and Randy Rosarana feat of hitting a lead-off homer and a walk-off homer, or even more specifically, a first pitch homer and a last pitch homer, Nate says, though I like the current frontrunners, open and shut case or book-end bombs, neither feels appropriately heroic. There is a dignity and, dare I say, divine nature to the act that makes me think it should have a nickname of biblical proportions. For this reason, I believe it should be dubbed an alpha and omega. If further clarity is needed,

and perhaps this is blasphemous, one could call it, an alpha and omega, the beginning and the end. I don't mind that. I like that. I have a horse in this race. I suggested open and shut case, but alpha and omega game, that would work for me too. Also, last time we shared a stat blast about instances of same-named players occupying consecutive spots in the lineup. And we mentioned the September 1999 game between the pirates and the Brewers. When the pirates had Adrian Brown leading off, followed by Emil Brown, followed by Brant Brown. Not Dana Brown, though. He was also discussed on that episode. And that was the one time Michael Mountain could find where three players with the same surname started in consecutive spots in the order. However, David, Patreon supporter notes that the three Alu brothers, Jesus, Madi, and Felipe, overlapped with the Giants for a time. And sometimes they did share an outfield. And on September 10th, 1963, Giants versus Mets, Jesus Alu made his Major League debut and Lou debut. And he did not start the game. In fact, he rarely started that season.

But he entered in the eighth inning and led off the inning. and after he pinch hit for Jose Pagan, Maddie Alloo pinch hit for Bob Garibaldi, the pitcher, and Felipe Alu was the leadoff guy, the only one of the Alu's who was in the starting lineup that day. So the three Alu's did bat consecutively in that eighth inning on that day, but only one of them started. So I think Michael was looking for starting lineup examples.

It was also the first time three brothers appeared as teammates in a major league game. But Felipe was traded to Milwaukee after that season. So they never actually. started a game together, let alone in consecutive spots in the order. However, good note from David. And like David, you can support the podcast on Patreon by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going, help us stay ad-free, and get yourself access to some perks.

As have the following five listeners, Nathan Griffin, Antonio Sierra, Bill, Arcadian, and Nome de Plume. Thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include access to a third, unabridged episode each week, That will be coming up next time, along with a monthly bonus episode, which will be following shortly after that, and membership in our Discord group for patrons only, and exclusive live streams, and prioritized email answers, personalized messages. Shoutouts at the end of episodes, potential podcast appearances, fan graphs, memberships, and more. Check out all the offerings at patreon.com slash effectively wild.

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description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We will be back with that third and final episode of the week soon. Talk to you then. The methodicals are perfectively styled, and their stat blast queries are detectively compiled, a non-Agerian baseball legend selectively dialed, but their spiciest takes are still respectfully mild,

more than 2,000 episodes retrospectively filed, and at each new one we still still, collectively smile that's effectively wild. That's effectively wild.