Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2547: Both Sides of the World Series Story

Episode Date: October 22, 2026

It’s the World Series preview pod! Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a few intriguing factors that could affect the Fall Classic and then bring on two expert reporters to break down each team’s advantages, vulnerabilities, and overlooked storylines. Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel joins first (19:59) to talk about the Brewers, […] Source

And welcome to episode 2547 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer, joined by Meg Rally of Fangraphs. Hello, Meg. How are you? Hello. Well, there's been a bunch of baseball news, but we will be saving much of it for next time because this episode is all World Series all the time. This is a dedicated World Series preview episode of the podcast. we will be bringing on two excellent guests.

Our season preview guests will be rejoining us for a series preview. Kurt Hogue, who covers the Brewers, will be here to talk to us about them. And Adam Berry, who covers the race, we'll be here to tell us all about the race. And we'll get into the strengths and the weaknesses and the matchups and the storylines and all the rest of it. And you will be ready when first pitch is thrown on Friday night. And, of course, when the first pitch of game two is thrown on Saturday night, when we will be live streaming in the Patreon Discord group, join up now at patreon.com slash effectively wild if you haven't yet. And you can chat with us and listen to us while we watch Game 2.

And Adrian Childs will also be ready. And I know this because I got a follow-up email the day after we talked to him. So this is, of course, our guest last time, our pro-raise anti-Guardians, guardian columnist guest, Adrian childs and here's the email i received from adrian the morning after our conversation hi ben supplementary question what may i ask are whiffs oh he did not know what a whiff was and this question was inspired by an article he had seen about jacob miserowski and whether the miss can get his whiffs back yeah which is something that we will talk about in the course of this episode and so i had the of explaining to Adrian what a whiff was. And he now knows that a whiff is a swing and a miss. And maybe

Mizorowski himself has forgotten what a whiff was, or at least hasn't been whiffing quite as much as he has been accustomed to. And so we will discuss whether those fortunes will change. But Adrian is now fully ready for this series now that he is aware of whiffs. Of the whiffs. I would love to wake up to a question every morning from Adrian Charles, just to ask me about baseball terminology. That would be a great way to start my day. Yeah, not a bad one anyway. Another terminology question. So last time we were talking about what to call Junior Camerro's home run trots because you can't quite call them trots. They don't seem to have the proper pace. And we were flirting with other terms and we were talking about canter and how that would be good

except that canter when it comes to horses, that's faster than a trot. We want to go in the other direction. And I think multiple listeners suggested this, but we got an email from listener Stephen who said I actually had the same discussion with a buddy of mine the other night. I landed on saunter. And I think saunter is great, right? Yeah. It sounds like canter, but it is, it's the other end of the spectrum. It's lower than a trot. Yeah.

It's perfect. I think a saunter is great. If he hits a homer in this series, I will be referring to it as a home run saunter. A saunter. Sure. Yeah, our listeners are the best, you know. Yes, they are. And just a couple other observations about this series, which I'm writing about for the ringer.com, so you can go read about this in more depth and detail if you're so inclined. But one thing that I've been talking about all postseason and that we will talk about with our guests on this episode is just how long is the leash with those high leverage relievers? How long can they last? Will the layoff help? They've had varying degrees of rest.

maybe they'll be recharged, but we have seen some of these back of the bullpen guys get pushed past their breaking points in some cases. And so there have been some heroic multi-inning outings. And then there have been others that guys have been stymied. And maybe they faltered and they ran into a wall and they ran out of some stuff. And so I have been wanting to look into this in some more rigorous way. And I came up with a way to try to quantify this. So I tried to compare the percentage of. of postseason innings pitched by the highest leverage relievers.

And then I compared that to the percentage of regular season innings they pitched. And so the way I did this, I looked post-all-Star break because, of course, bullpen hierarchies can change and people can be picked up at the deadline and everything. So I looked at each team's top two guys in the bullpen qualified relievers post-all-star break each year going back to 1974, which is what I could easily look up at fan graphs.

And I then compared the percentage of innings that those guys pitched team innings in the post all-star break period of those seasons to the percentage of innings the same guys pitched in the postseason.

And so these are typically your closers and your top setup guys. And I excluded some who didn't appear in the postseason, which in many cases is because of injuries or something. They just weren't available. So I didn't want that to skew the stats. It was tough to do this perfectly, but I tried to come up with the best method. And then I just looked at the ratio, basically,

between the percentage of innings pitch that those same guys threw in the postseason versus the innings that they threw late in the regular season. And they have always pitched more innings, proportionately speaking, in the postseason. But now they pitch more than ever. Okay. So I divided this by decades because it sort of bounces around from year to year, depending on the teams and the guys and everything. And in the 70s, if I did it two ways, I looked at the number one leverage guy and

the one and two leverage guys combined. And this was based on the game Eli, which you can find at Fangraphs, which is the average leverage index when they entered. the game. So when they were called upon. So with the number one guy only, it went from the ratio being 140. So basically, 140, if I divide the postseason percentage by the regular season percentage, we get 141% in the 70s, 129% in the 80s. Those guys pitched so much in the 80s, the fireman era, that there wasn't really that much room for them to pitch more innings in the postseason, especially when starters tended to go the distance more often.

In the 90s, it was 151 percent, so ramping up, and that's largely the impact of Mariana Rivera. And same in the 2000s, 150 percent. Same in the 2010s, just about 152 percent. It was ticking up late in that decade with Andrew Miller and co. And then this decade, so far, the 2020s, 177. 175%. Wow. So they have really ramped up their usage in the postseason, even relative to the rampups

of earlier eras. So that was just the number one leverage guy. If I combine one and two and go by decade, 70s, 127 percent, 80s, 121 percent, 90s, 138 percent, 2000s, 148 percent, 2010's 144 percent, and 2020s, 170 percent. So there really has been. a big leap lately. And this is just one of the most fascinating stories to me because, again, teams are really reluctant to use guys during the regular season for long outings and for frequent outings without days of rest in between. And yet, when the calendar flips over to October or at least

long October, suddenly it's pedal to the medal as it should be. So teams are appropriately understanding, hey, use your high leverage guys because these are the highest leverage moments. But also, will they reach their breaking point, are they now not conditioned to do what teams are asking them to do? So we will see. Can Aaron Ashby just keep pitching forever? Can Brian Baker keep going out there and shutting down the brewers and throwing up zeros? That's going to be a big storyline in this series now as we get toward the end of October. And these guys are maybe just at the end of their ropes.

Yeah. I'm so curious. I mean, like there's the, there's like the immediate feedback that team. are getting, and they are getting, I think, a lot more feedback than we are, right? Like, they're not just looking at a guy's velocity and being like, well, I don't think he has it anymore, right? Like, they're looking at biomechanical markers and command and all, you know, they're looking at a bunch of information to try to discern where in the moment, or at least in the moments

immediately after a guy has come out. But I remain fascinated by, like, sort of the constitution question, right? Like how do you know? Because if you would ask me, can Mason Miller go multiple frames? I would have been like, yeah, of course. Look at him. It's built like an aircraft carrier. Like, yeah, of course that guy can.

And the answer turned out to be it wasn't quite so straightforward there. So I, you know, I do wonder this feels like a place. And I'm sure that Kevin Cash isn't the only one making this decision, right? Pat Murphy isn't the only one making this decision or at least not the only one having input into it. But I do imagine this to be a place where managers are making a meaningful impact on the way that their postseason's unfold in a way that is difficult for us to appreciate from the outside. Yes. And another thing I notice, Leo Morgan Stern dubbed this the year of the left-handed hitter back in June. And other people have written about that too. Lefties were just really good,

lefty batters this year. And also very prolific. They just took a really high percentage of played a There were just a lot of lefties, and teams were rewarded for that. And so far in this postseason, lefties have actually taken more plate appearances than righties. And lefties have hit better. That's not unusual. They often do because of the platoon advantage. But so far, lefty plate appearances in this postseason outnumber righty plate appearances by 174 trips to the plate. And if that holds, and it probably will, this will be the first time.

that has happened since the start of World War II, or at least since the U.S. got into it. 1941 was the last time that that happened in the postseason. And of course, the postseason then was one series. So this is highly anomalous. And both the Brewers and the Rays have given more plate appearances to left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters. So they are emblematic of this trend. And it's really pronounced. So, yeah, year of the left-ended hitter that has carried over into October, and we will be seeing that in this series. But it's very unusual, even though lefties have always been overrepresented in the baseball playing population compared to Gen Pop just because of the platoon advantage. It's really gotten skewed now, and lefties

are everywhere. And we're seeing that in October, too. So I guess teams have been rewarded for that, but something to monitor and marvel at. And also, we have talked about this, but some of the scoring has been super low this postseason. And that's partly because offense is not at its highest point period these days, but relative to the regular season, just looking at runs scored in the postseason compared to run scored in the regular season. Typically, the penalty is about 10% runs per game goes down in the postseason because weather's colder, though I guess if this is an all-dome series, we might not have frigid

games. But yeah, usually it's about a 10% drop-off because of the weather, because of better pitching in defense, because of teams really trying to stop their opponents and, you know, having to have one-run strategies and such. This year, though, it's been upwards of 20% the penalty and the decline from the regular season to the postseason in terms of run scored per game on a percentage basis is the biggest in 20 years since 2006. And back then there were fewer teams and fewer games even. So it's even more notable. And I don't know whether that will change in this series because these aren't exactly offensive powerhouses.

I mean, the Brewers were one of the better hitting teams in baseball this year. And obviously they've been hitting for the long ball, as we will soon discuss. But good defensive teams on paper, maybe the small margins will hold up. I think the interesting thing is that you would have thought maybe that if scoring was down if there were a lot of close games and one-run games that we would see some upsets and some random unpredictable results. And that has not happened because as we discussed recently, it's just been Choctober thus far. And the team with the superior regular season record has won out to this point. And we'll see whether they can go wire to wire

if the brewers take things here. But yeah, runs have been hard to come by, have really been at a premium in this postseason. So I'm curious to see if that continues. And finally, We have talked about all the similarities between the Brewers and the Rays. We'll get into that more here. So I was trying to come up with, well, what do they do differently? What's the most striking point of departure? Because it really is sort of a Spider-Man pointing meme series here. And so many things about these teams approach and how they were constructed and all the rest of it, almost mirror images of each other.

I think the biggest difference, though, and we will talk about this too, is just the plate approach. because even though there are similarities here in terms of speed and small ball and hitting the ball the other way and all the rest of it, they really do have pronounced differences in how they make pitchers work or not and walks and strikeouts because some people are probably under the misimpression that the brewers put the ball in play a lot and they don't really. And the rays do, of course. The rays had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball this year. And the Brewers, not so much, right? The Brewers were about middle of the pack in strikeout rate during the regular season.

The Reyes had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. And then when it came to walks, the Brewers number one walk rate team on offense. Yeah. And the Reyes were down at 22nd during the regular season. And then pitches per plate appearance, the Brewers were number one. And we saw them put that to work and put pitchers to work in this postseason. And the raise were second to last ahead of only the Rockies. So the rays, they can do some stuff offensively, but typically they put the ball in play pretty quickly, early and often.

And so that is a very different approach, whether or not they get similar results sometimes. And that's, I think, a big story coming into this. And we'll talk about it just when it comes to wearing down certain starters and trying to get them out of the game and get into the bullpen. And it does seem as if the brewers based on their past at least are a bit better equipped to do that. Yeah. The flip side of that, though, is that no pitching staff was better at limiting walks than the race, who averaged the fewest pitches per inning as well. So maybe those strengths are nullified.

Maybe it really is unstoppable force meets immovable object. It's kind of like the running game. Both of these teams can really run. But the Brewers have been better at limiting the opposition's running game. So maybe that's advantage Milwaukee. A lot of things are advantage Milwaukee. advantages. But when it comes to those battles at the plate appearance level, inducing swings versus refraining from swinging, I don't know who has the upper hand. Yeah, I think that, you know,

there are definitely, I don't even want to call them superficial similarities. There are definitely real similarities between these teams. And sometimes their top line numbers arrive at a similar place. But what Ben Clemens really tried to hone in on during his World Series preview for us, which went up as we were recording. So you haven't had the benefit of reading it yet, Ben. You haven't yet gotten the wisdom of other bend. But the way that they go about those approaches and the way that they arrive at some of their similarities is actually meaningfully different. And how those differences play out, I think, is going to end up having a lot to say about

this series and the way it goes. Because you're right. Like, you could look at it. We've talked about this. If you've listened to a broadcast, it's like, oh, small ball, old school teams. And there's, like, setting aside the analytics face blindness of that statement, you're right, that they get there really differently. Like, the brewers are, they're a grinding team.

Ben had the light of realizing that, you know, the number of plate appearances they have that end with the ball in play pretty low relative to what you might expect, given their reputation. They're walking here, you know? You mock my New York accent. That was... I'm not from there.

It's embarrassing for you to get it wrong. You whipped here real well, but it's... true. I'm a native. I should be better at that. I don't try to affect the only the only accent that crept in for me based on living somewhere was was the Wisconsin accent. There were times I'd come home and I'm like, oh, God, I sound like I have cheese curds in my in my veins. But no, I didn't, I didn't ever try to sound like I was from Queens because that would be bonkers. It would be like if I were from the northwest and insisted on like caddy corner. Anyway, I'm delighted. by this matchup. I can't wait. I'm very excited for the World Series to start. I'm quite tired,

but I'm still, I'm still thrilled. It's going to be great. Yes. If you're a network exec or someone who relies on making a pro salary cap argument, it's not your dream matchup. Maybe it's your nightmare matchup. But if you like good baseball, you like crisp, competently played And baseball and charismatic, demonstrative players and just great stories and close games and all the rest of it. Well, you are, I hope, and think in for a treat here. Yeah. And I hope you'll be in for a treat in the rest of this episode as well. Boy, I'm just scrolling through other Ben's preview.

I like this subhead, J.C. superstar. Yeah. Because each team, Jackson Trio, Junior Cominero, well done. Look, it's not just Bowman. They can have fun with headlines. It implies to our entire staff. Okay. Well, one of these fan bases will be getting long delayed gratification at the end of this series.

But we will not delay your gratification any further when it comes to our preview guests. We will talk now to Kurt Hogue about the Brewers. And then we will be back with Adam Berry to discuss the race. Well, if you hear any fun slice of life stories about the Brewers, on national broadcast during the World Series. They may well be coming from the uncredited work of Kurt Hogue, Brewer's Beat Reporter for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. But none of Kurt's insights or human interest anecdotes

will go unattributed on this podcast because he's here to dispense them himself. And of course, we would give him appropriate credit, even if he weren't here. But he is, and we're happy to have him. Welcome, Kurt. Hey, thanks for having me. So you were our Brewer's season preview guest.

a lot has happened since then, was looking back at the what would constitute a success goals that our preview guests set, which were compiled and summarized by effectively wild wikikeeper Raymond Chen. I don't even remember what. Well, here's how he summarized the goal you set. The Brewer's Way creates optimism for World Series title within five years. So I think they cleared that bar given that there's optimism for a World Series title within 10 days. So yes, real, real optimism.

None of this 2023, we pitil our way into the playoffs and then or more so during the playoffs. Yeah, that's not real optimism. Yeah. So you're that, Brewer's fans season already a success. Anything that happens now is just gravy. So don't sweat it. I'm sure that that's not how a brewer's fans are feeling. And I'm sure that's not how the brewers themselves are feeling.

Surely they would say that they need four more wins to make this season a success. But any reason you think the brewers have broken through this October of all octobers beyond it being just another spin of the wheel or roll of the dice? Yeah, I mean, there's a bunch of ways you could look at it. Honestly, there's an argument for that being the answer as you keep taking these David Stern's bites of the apple and eventually things do roll your way, balls hit off roofs, Garrett Mitchell, robs, homers. Like, the bounces have largely gone their way. I do feel like they've completely, you know, they deserve to be in the spot they're in when you go seven and one against the teams they've played. I mean, we can talk about, you know, all the intangibles and the grit and the wherewithal this team. And look, I've watched them all year.

I think there is definitely something to that element of these guys. But I think they're here because they hit home runs. And their bullpen pitched the crap out of the baseball for two series. And look, that's something that we knew was in there. It was like, well, they don't hit home runs, but they can. You know, they're not one of these, I don't know, like you could have maybe compared them to like the 2014 or 2015 Royals, you know, who didn't hit many home runs. But like, I feel like this team has those guys. They hit the ball hard.

Their hard hit rate was, I think, top six or seven in baseball this year. So they have the guys that do that. It's just like, well, they don't really turn it into homers. But they can. They absolutely did against the Dodgers, and that's why they wiped the floor in terms of wins and losses, even though if that series was pretty stressful. Yeah. Ten homers in seven postseason games, which is a pace of 231 over 162 games, which would have led the majors, whereas the Brewers, in reality, were actually second to last in the majors and home runs in the regular season. So good time to find your power stroke, especially considering the weather and the pitching, make it harder to Homer at this time of year.

So, again, is that just fortunate timing or is it the Brewers rising to the occasion or some combination of both? Who knows, but it's worked out well so far. Well, and I think it highlights the remark you're making here, Ben, highlights a sort of odd thing about watching this Brewer's team in the postseason because, well, did you know that the Brewers don't like analytics? Their throwback. Their old school. And we have seen them score in a way that wasn't, you know, the primary driving force of their offense. But I'm curious sort of what it has been like for you trying to account for this team and this version of the team when you're hearing national narratives that don't seem to comport with your understanding of this group. Right.

That's a really good question. I'm really happy you brought that up because the brewers do have the ability to do those things. Obviously, they're second in a run scored without hitting home runs. And like, you know, in your mind, you're like, that doesn't make any sense. That doesn't work. can be like, well, they must be just, you know, the best punch and Judy, steel bags, bunt, hit with Riders in scoring position, team of all time. And they are, they like can do those things.

They won a game against the Dodgers because Cooper Pratt bunted and Luis Lara singled up the middle against Terek Scouble. They can't do that. But that's not their identity. Yeah. That is not their like only style of play. They take on Pat Murphy's identity in other ways, I think. think that are much more prevalent and important. And it's like, it's, it's really like kind of boils down

to their quality of a bat. There's like a constant, the constant challenge that the pitcher has to face, whether it's runners on base, whether it's, we're just not going to swing. We're not going to chase. We're going to make you come to us. It's, oh, second or third time through. Okay, we're like, this is when we're going to get you. And then when you do make a mistake, they can punish it. So it's, It is very funny to see that there are some that say, you know, the brewers don't rely on analytics. Literally the brewers, famously the Milwaukee Brewers are doing this in baseball's smallest market. I think they're doing some things with the numbers. But nevertheless, like their offensive identity is also not, I think, what might not even be accurate on the broadcast.

Who's to say exactly, you know, what they'll say. But just like take it with a grain of salt, you know, when people are attributing small ball. to the big reason why the brewers are good. They can do it. I think there's something to be said about they do not try to do too much. You know, it's that pass the baton mentality. You take your walks. You give it to another guy who can hopefully hit a baseball really hard.

Like they're trying to hit the baseball hard, and they will tell you this. The brewers are the consensus favorites in this series. It's 57 to 43 as we speak, according to the fan grafts Zips projections. I think the prediction slash betting market. have it slightly more lopsided than that. Will that prevent Murph from playing the Nobody Belief Dennis cards for this series specifically? It has to. It's Tampa.

He has to. I know. That's the thing. It's like coming off the Hall of Famers versus Gamers series. Okay, maybe you can make that work against the Dodgers. But can you credibly claim that nobody has ever heard of us when you're going up against the Tampa Bay race? He might find a way. I will say the Brewers took a different tone this year.

especially against the Dodgers. I mean, they still played up how good the Dodgers are. That was kind of a fun undertone. It was like, Shohei was struggling. And there's all these questions about it. The Brewers are like, just like, I'm not doing this. It's Showing. Right.

Yeah. And clearly he started to figure some things out just in time for the Brewers to get out of Dodge. Yeah. They really didn't rise to the bait. When Verducci was asking Garrett Mitchell, why do you think you can beat these Dodgers? Mitchell just talked up the Brewers, belief in themselves, but also was quick to credit the Dodgers as formidable and everything. So didn't see them getting too big for their brewers' britches.

No, no, I'm not sure any of that really matters. Maybe just enough last year where, like, it was the final straw of just getting waxed by those guys. But this year, and that's what's a little different about this team, is like top to bottom, they just have like a different demeanor and belief in themselves, you know, being a year older. And, you know, a year older, a Ms. in the rotation, there's, you know, compared to last year, we could go guy by guy, but I think maybe we want to highlight some of the players who are likely to help swing this series one way or another. And for me, as I've been editing our preview content, I've been thinking a lot about how we account for the Mizorowski of the regular season versus the version we've seen of him so far this October, which has been, you know, diminished compared to the guy who might, win the Syong. So talk to us about what your expectations are of Mizorowski in this world series, why he has looked a little less dominant or maybe a lot less dominant in the postseason and how they are thinking about helping him sort of course correct against, you know,

another good offense, but one that maybe isn't quite so intimidating as the ones that they have seen so far. I think we're seeing a guy who's a little bit tired. Yeah. And that this has been, I mean, if you've watched along, this was sort of the trajectory for the final couple months of the year. You know, the Brewers put him, they didn't put him on the aisle, but they skipped his start before the All-Star break with just like general fatigue, basically. And then they slowly, I mean, slowly, but then they had to like build him back up. They had some shorter outings. And there was some electric stuff in some of those outings. Like, I think he struck out the first seven Rockies.

Okay, sure, it was the Rockies on the road. But still, he was, he was hitting 103, 104. again in that and like the fastball was untouchable. It looked like Ms. And then we just haven't really seen the fully dominant version of him. And, you know, maybe there's a little bit of unfairness to expect that May to June Ms. Because like that was one of the best pitchers we've ever seen.

Yeah. For a 10 game or whatever stretch. I mean, unreal what that guy was doing. But there are certain signs that that match the eye. test of like, well, you know, he's up to what, 180, 190 innings this year. He's never pitched this long in a year. The vert is down on his fastball. He's still hitting some high heights in terms of he'll come out and he'll hit a 104, but when he's not holding 102. It's not holding 101. That's where he's at when he's at his best. And you can kind, I mean, you can get into the nerdy stuff too,

but you can also just kind of see it, the zip on it, the swings against it. And a little bit of Credit two goes to the Dodgers and the Padres. They were clearly sacrificing to just foul balls off, get the bat on the ball somehow. And it worked. They executed very well, and Ms. didn't execute great. So I wonder, you wonder, he hasn't pitched in what? This is going to be almost two full weeks off, 12 days rest. October 11th, NLCS game one was his last day.

Yeah. And the last time he got this breather, he came back and it was like, okay, all right. You know, it's just shorter stint, but it was good for him. So we'll see, we'll see, he loves the big moments. He's, you know, he's a goofball. But once he gets that adrenaline, you see it on the fistpumps. Like the adrenaline's going to get to him. And we'll see some big numbers, I think.

It's just like, can he sustain it? Is the fastball the fastball? Yeah. Well, while we're on the subject of rest, maybe we can ask about that because the brewers, as a whole, have been idle for some time. They finished out the Dodgers on October 15th. So that's eight days before they get. back into action here. And in the great age-old rest versus rest debate, I lean toward rest being

more beneficial, despite the possible trade-off of rest. But there is, I guess, some small sample data to suggest that maybe if you're talking about extreme rest, you're off for that long and that much longer than your opponent that at least potentially in the first game of the series, there might be some effect of that. I'm not super confident in that, but there's some, well, I don't know if it's noise or signal, but there's some suggestion if you want to squint and see that. So I wonder what they have done to stay sharp over the past week. What are they doing to find the line between giving guys rest and also trying to keep them game ready? Well, that's a great question, Ben. I have not been to the ballpark since I left Dodger Stadium at 1 a.m. So you've gotten some rest. That's good. I'm rested. I am

But I'm also rusty. You know, I don't know how I'm going to do on Friday night. Like, who knows how the moment's going to get to me? You know, they've been doing sim games. I don't think they're pushing the envelope too hard on the guys. Just thinking back to what they did last year between the end of the regular season and the NLDS against the Cubs is, you know, they did go pretty hard at it to like try to keep the guys locked in. And with seven days off, you know, here between games or eight days or whatever, it's going to end up being.

But they've had a couple of rest days in there. I think they skipped a practice maybe this weekend or Monday or whatever it was from what I believe. But I have no way to know if the rest is going to help or hurt. My gut says it's going to help because this team is built around using Aaron Ashby as many times as you can, using Abner-R-R-Ibe as many times as you can, using Trevor McGill as many times as you can use a 6-foot-8, 240-pound man. that might be short-changing him a little bit. Like that is, that's the ship. So giving Aaron Ashby through 12 innings over 18 games a week off

might not be the worst thing in the world. And certainly one thing that might help those guys go longer, be more efficient is a less leaky defense. I think I was very surprised to see there were a couple of goofs. There were a couple of error-prone moments from a team that I imagine and think to be sound from a fielding perspective, do you have any insight into what they attribute that to, or is it just like, nah, sometimes Cooper Pratt has a bad day?

I think sometimes Cooper Pratt is 22 years old. They had a couple of mistakes against San Diego. Jake Bowers is at first, I mean, what can you say about Jake Bowers season? But you can also say that his defense was quite poor at first base this year, and, you know, he's going to play there every day. So that is a hole in the offense first. Sure. His receiving, I feel like, has been maybe there's maybe been a couple of moments, but for the most part, he's been good receiving. But yeah, that could be a weak spot. Other than that, yeah, it has just been uncharacteristic. David Hamilton's a guy to for sure watch out for on his defense. This guy can make, you know, the highest of the high end plays. And he can also just completely miss a throw. His routine like body clock play rhythm sort of thing is a little funky. It's a little wonky. he maybe could be a really good center fielder.

Keep an eye on that down the road. But then he will make insane plays because of his range because he's quick and athletic and all that. So that's something for sure to keep an eye and if we're looking at the defense on. And then obviously, yeah, Cooper Pratt is, he has the ability to do it all. But is he going to be 22 years old again in some of these moments?

Right. Still 22 as far as we know. As far as we know. Yes. And we do know, I think. Yeah. So the starting pitching, just hasn't really been what's propelled the Brewers to this point. We talked about the MIS.

It's not as if they have had the best Logan Henderson outings either. And who needs them, I guess, with a bullpen that is functioning the way that the Brewers has. So tell us what the pitching plan is, as far as we know, who's lined up to start when. Is there any uncertainty about when bullpen games are happening or someone's picking up a start? I have wondered about the status of Brandon Woodruff and Kyle Harrison, two pitchers who were quite important to the Brewers' fortunes at points this season and have been on the bubble or in Harrison's case have been on the roster and gone unused. And of course, he was ineffective down the stretch and then had that one last effective relief outing at the tail end of the season. And then Woodruff trying to work his way back from the latest shoulder ailment. So what do you think about those guys potentially making the roster and just how the pitching plan? shakes out. Yeah, the pitching plan, I mean, one, two, three, you're pretty straightforward. Ms. Henderson and then Bobby Diesel, Bobby Patrol, if you will, he has been, I mean, I don't want to say come out of the woodwork, but he's, he's really shined as your quintessential brewers pitcher

this postseason. And what do I mean by that? I mean, he's throwing sinkers. That is your quintessential brewer's pitcher. That's the pitching lab. Here, here's a sinker. Please throw it a lot. That's sort of what they do. But after that, yeah, that's, That's where we get into these other guys of Dustin May is probably on the roster, but we are on going on three full months now of this in between of the stuff is really good. And when the brewers get their hands on a guy whose stuff is like that, it usually works out pretty good. And then the results just haven't been there at all. That's the Dustin May experience for you, I guess. That is the Dustin May experience.

He's pitched 11 or 12 times, I think, for the brewers and gone, I believe I should have looked this up before, I believe it was like he's gone more than four innings three times. And there's a couple like, you know, they were scheduled to be shorter outings. There was one where he got hit in his scab and left after one pitch. So it's not all, you know, short outings because of bad pitching. But when you only have three outings that have actually gone any length, it's not a good sign. But there you might just keep throwing him back out there. Like there's just these little glimpses, you know, after gave the show, Hey, Homer's next two

innings were good. It's like that's the dust to me they want to see. They did give up assets for him. And I don't know. I'm not saying the brewers are like sunk-cost fallacy, you know, all in on it. But there might be a little bit of that boat. And then we get to the Woodruff, the Woodruff question. So the Ken Rosenthal article in The Athletic a couple days ago where he cited an unnamed source from the brewers about this rule, this kind of weird rule in the world series of, well, you can't replace the guy.

it's a chronic injury, it's a pre-existing injury, which I think I'd ever, I'd never heard of that. Never, never come up. But to me, to me what that felt like, reading between the lines is like, okay, guys, this, this feels like you're preempting something. Like, really? Really, like, that would be the reason? No, the reason would just be his stuff's not good enough. But he has put a little pressure on the Brewers.

Like, I talked to him after game four and asked him about it. His first quote was very accurate. Adam and like it's going to be hard to keep me off the roster. And he has not always taken that tone. There's been quite, you know, a few years now of these slow buildups and he hasn't pushed the envelope really in these conversations at all, like pushing to, you know, get back in the mound right away. So that struck me as interesting as him putting pressure on the team and seeing that he

threw 90, it was in the 90s in this, this live session this week makes you think they're going to have a hard time not putting him on given the trust. It's crazy. It's crazy because this guy hasn't pitched in three months. He's coming off a shoulder injury that like two months ago we thought was going to end his career. You're really going to throw that guy in your World Series roster? You're really going to put him on the mound? And yes, that's how much they trust him.

And then the flip side of that, Ben, as you mentioned, Kyle Harrison, I was actually, I was having some milk with our taco dinner tonight at the Hogue household. And I didn't know they sold milk cartons anymore, but we had one. And sure enough, as I poured some, my daughter some milk, Kyle, Harrison's face was on the carton. Yes, he's been along for the ride, but purely a spectator so far. Yeah, two pitchers who haven't pitched, Chad Patrick, who has at least gotten hot, and Kyle Harrison, I don't think, has gotten hot once. And so, like, look, there's space there.

There's space there if you want to say, screw it, nerds, go put your nose in a spreadsheet. We don't care what his IVB on his fastball is right now. We're putting Woody on this roster. would they do it? So we talked about sort of the disconnect a little bit in the national narrative about this team. But I think another place where people maybe get it wrong is sort of misapplying the small ball terminology to them a bit. They are a grinding team. They are a get on base by wearing pitchers down and taking long at-bats team. And that's not to say that they don't steal bases and that they don't bunt because they do do those things. But I think, you know, the defining

characteristic here is that they try to wear you down. And I'm curious how you think their approach to offense is going to play against this race team. Are they going to be able to sort of stick to their main approach or are they going to need to deviate in some sort of appreciable way, given the arms that Tampa Bay is going to throw at them? Yeah. Well, I'll start with the name that pops from my mind immediately, which is Freddie Peralta. I've seen him pitch a time or two. And that is going to be the most interesting matchup of this series. least in my mind, both from a narrative perspective, especially if he's at getting to at home, but also just the way that he pitches, it could work incredibly against the Brewers or like that

could play right into what the Brewers want. I was watching that game six and, you know, he ended up with a pretty good line at the end. I was looking at it like, yeah, he's not in the zone. They're just chasing. He's making the pitches that he can get outs on because they're giving him some swings. And if the brewers don't do that, which for the most part, they don't, but it is, I mean, it's, it's Freddie Peralta. Like, this is where he excels. But if, if they're able to stick to their process, that lines up well for the brewers for sure. Nick Martinez will be, I'm just, I'm also looking forward to seeing that matchup because he has so many different ways, really, to attack this lineup. And I honestly feel like that could

be, you know, a feathering. his hat. But we don't know. We don't know because like you said, they do grind. And even on days where the pitcher has a really good stuff and it looks lost so many times this year in that Dodger series and in the regular season, it's like the fourth or fifth or sixth inning. And it's like they just get a couple to get a run, get you out of the game. And that's what they do best. Yeah, they just work you. I have a silly question related to Peralta. So we get obsessed, I think, with the storylines at this time of year when there are players, one team traded away, and now he's on the other team, and he's facing his old team. And this was made much of during the ALCS, because people

kept pointing out much to the chagrin of Guardians fans, you know, how the raise got Yandi Diaz and Junior Cominero, et cetera. Without mentioning, I guess, that Bowers was also traded from the raise to the Guardians, or Cleveland before they were the Guardians, years ago before Bowers was Bowers. Yeah. Anyway, my silly question is ALCS MVP Freddie Peralta, former Brewer, NLCS MVP, Jake Bowers, former Ray. So who says no when it comes to swapping them right now if they could have that back? Now, it's silly for a number of reasons. For one thing, they didn't trade those players to each other. There was some intermediate steps there.

And also, I think we probably make too much of this because some of these teams, I mean, And the raise made some howlers, too, that they would want back. It's just the raise, the brewers, these are high-volume shooters. They make a lot of trades, and they make most of those shots, and the margins are good. But the raise traded away Christopher Sanchez for Curtis Mead. The Dodgers traded Yordon Alvarez. Every team has some that they would want that. But, yeah, in the series, Bauer Power or Steady Freddie.

And obviously, they're both going to say no, because you're not going to make a trade on the Eve of the World Series. for clubhouse reasons. But putting all that aside, if they could swap them right now and the brewers could have Freddie back. Oh, man. I think, oh, man. Think the Brewers,

well, they probably say, I think they might actually both say no because Freddy's pretty important in that role. And the brewers might say no because, like, Freddie's playoff reputation in Milwaukee isn't the greatest. Yeah, that's true. He was their number one for a couple years.

And I think there was always this waiting for him to rise to the moment in the postseason. He never did. It wasn't a bad postseason pitcher, but there were just some. Didn't go deep into games. Yeah, some clunkers. And they were like, you could all tie it back to like the downside of him as a pitcher of the, well, sometimes he's just, everyone's a full count. And then you get some run. So I think they both say no, but it is tantalizing.

I have thought about that. What if you went into this series? And, you know, you hadn't done that trade and you had Ms. And then Freddie, then Henderson, and then Gasser. That would be. And, of course, Milwaukee would like Drew Rasmussen back if the race were offering, probably. Yeah, that's a great topic of who won that trade. Yeah.

The brewers lose. Did the brewers lose that trade? Yeah, it's, yeah, I'm not even talking about would they undo the deal necessarily because you can't anticipate what would have happened. But, yeah, that was a meaningful, pivotal trade, right? because that was Brewers with J.P. Fire Eisen to the race. That was the Adamas deal and Trevor Richard. So, yeah, that's a tough one. But the brewers would look pretty good with Rasmussen right now. Surprise. The Brewers and Rays have traded a lot. Yeah, I know. Shocking. Those people might know each other.

I was just going to add one more thing to that. How about the 6D chess of the race trading Tobias Myers away for junior Camerro? just for Tobias Myers to be part of the sweetener that gets the Freddie Peralta trade over the hump to New York. Yeah. So that Freddie Peralta can be available for them at the deadline. I mean, we love this trade for the raise.

Yeah. The race would probably want Matt Arnold back if they could somehow make that happen magically. Yeah. They would take that trade, yeah. We should just combine them into one Super squad. I guess that would sort of defeat the purpose of the World Series.

Yeah. But then everyone he used to work for Phaegraph, skates or ring. So that maybe that's actually the right approach, at least for my own personal and rooting interest. Yeah. Who do you want back, August Fagersterm or Jeff Sullivan? No, you don't have to answer that one. The answer is yes. I have a sort of silly question. I don't even know that it's a question, just a funny remark. So we have, we have Yondi Diaz, who never challenges. And then we have Contreras, who seemingly always challenges. And I don't even know what my question is here other than what is your sense of like what the brewers have told contraris

in terms of when he can let the tap tap tap tap fly because it seems like it just it flies it always flies the tap tap tap tap he's gotten more well i want to say he's gotten a little less emotional about it and a little more judicious at the end of like the tail end of the regular season in the playoff in the playoffs he's been good yes he has been good yes i know like you'll be you'll probably flash this the screen our most a bs challenge wins this year but like he wasn't good. He also lost the most by a lot. And it only cost, you know,

burned the Brewers a couple of times. So maybe there is, maybe there is something to utilizing the challenges to not, to not walking out of the game with two sitting there. And the Brewers, they for sure don't walk out of games with two sitting there. Most often when he's behind the plate. But their general approach has been to on offense,

big spots, pitches you're not sure about, you know, those leverage spots to challenge. That's actually where they've been worse. I mean, Contreras's rate wasn't great on defense, but at least he, you know, at least he used the system. Yeah. The offense was like frustratingly inconsistent with it this year,

and they've had some spots in the postseason as well. Whereas Contreras, I mean, he's just like a super, super emotional player plays with his heart in the sleeve, et cetera, et cetera. And there's just, there was just time. I think during the season and maybe a couple in the playoffs. I think it was San Diego, one of those games, he challenged the first pitch of the game and was wrong. And that's sort of like the experience that the brewers don't want.

But there's also this element with him in general, which is there's a level of trust in him both offensively and defensively, where they don't try to put their hands on it too much. The brewers were more so than I expected, like hands off of like the challenging coaching. Yeah. This year, which I did not expect. Except for taking it away from Luis Lara. He has lost his right.

Yeah. Another way in which they're like the race, I guess. Yeah. So there were a lot of lopsided teams in this playoff field, imbalance teams, teams with huge holes. The Brewers were not one of them. They're the all-around excellent roster. They've sort of excel at everything or at least are competent at everything,

as B-fits, probably the best team in baseball. What would you point to? If I said, what are the brewer's vulnerabilities? And that could be just in general or against the raise specifically. If there's something that could do them in in this series, well, anything could. It's a single series. But what do you think the most obvious weak point would be? On a micro level, like barreling in onto it, I would say it's sort of the what we saw when the Dodgers starters were cooking for periods of their games,

which they all were for portions, except maybe Yamamoto. It's the good fastball that is established in the zone for strikes, and then you get chase off of that as the game goes on. And then I think they're vulnerable to how that sets up secondaries, given the way that they want to just grind you. Now, you have to execute at a high level, but the race has like Freddie Peralto,

and is that his best? Rasmussen with his fastball, they have guys that can for sure, do that. And then, I mean, it's the question that's always the question with the brewers is like, what version of the offense are they going to be? I feel pretty safe that they are going to do a pretty good job of executing their process to a solid to high degree. They did it for most games that we watched this year, frankly. But this is the Brewers. And, you know, they're not a, home runs are not necessarily their thing. If they're not bopping it like they,

were against the Dodgers, does it become the 2025 NLCS or the 2023 wildcard round or the 2021 NLDS where they just get these guys on base and then they hit seven for 50 or seven for 40 with runners in scoring position, which would be really bad, even seven for 30. Seven for 30 they could maybe live with. But either way, you know, one of those first two numbers and then it's like, yeah, that's, oh, yeah, they're capable of that. You know, things have been going so well. that sometimes I have to remind myself of like what the other shoe is and it does exist and it's

somewhere in the house. Well, and I guess the flip side of that for me is, you know, I think this brewer's team is less anonymous to a national audience than say the rays are. And obviously the national audience has had a nice little run here to get familiar with them. But if you could isolate a couple of things where you feel like they have a distinct advantage compared to the raise that folks might be less familiar with, they've seen. seen, you know, William Contreras hit well. They've heard that Jake Bowers wanted health insurance, you know?

I think they've heard that story at this point. It was on Good Morning America. Yeah. It was on Good Morning America. No, no, I've given up. We are indignant on your behalf. We just want you to know. It's okay.

So is my mom. Good. That's what moms are for. And, you know, she's right. But what are some of the areas where you feel like they are going to be a real problem for this Tampa Bay team? That's a really good question. You know, the raise approach, you know, outside of the top couple guys where they got some pop and they'll chase of like, you know, just make life hard and not strike out.

I feel like the brewers have such good stuff that, you know, unless the rays make life really, really, really difficult on their pitchers, there could be a world in which runs are just not being come by very easily. as long as the brewers are executing against Camerro, executing against Diaz, you know, making pitches, I think the line, you know, the margin for air might be a little bigger against Aronda, but he can certainly still beat you, but, you know, taking care of him as well, I think, I think as long as they are aggressive with those guys, they have just such good stuff and they can sequence it in a way that'll make life difficult. if A1 is just like don't strike out. Because they have the stuff and the arsenals that excel. Not only getting swing and miss,

but like Aaron Ashby and Abner-Rebe aren't great because they get swing and miss. They're sinkers. It's the way they're breaking stuff plays off. And then they get weak contact as well. So that's sort of where my mind goes to for a brewer's advantage in this series. Just to zoom out a bit and get away from the X's and O's. and talk about the atmosphere.

You're a Milwaukee kid, Milwaukee County, at least. You're from the area. You grew up watching the Brewers. This is the first Brewers World Series of parents in your lifetime and a lot of lifetimes. So set the scene, give us a little local color. How excited is this city? Yeah, I'm a Milwaukee kid, and I feel like it's different than, like, I grew up like, you know, two minutes, three minutes from Milwaukee border, which I feel like is different, like Chicago to the south.

Yeah, you can claim Milwaukee. I'm from Chicago, and it's like, yeah, you're. Yeah. You're in Naperville. Anyway, it's been pretty wild to watch. You know, everyone has come out of, you know, the woodwork in various areas of your life. And everyone wants the newspaper. Everyone wants that NL champs clinching newspaper.

And like after the game, my phone, after game four in L.A., my phone had about 100 texts. And I was like, great. I don't know how I'm going to work through this. This has always been, I mean, the Packers, the Packers have. always been king here in terms of like the consistency. But I think there has there's like been this underlying murmur that people have this like different level of connection, like a more like an emotional connection, whether it's family or whatever.

And baseball does that too. That's one of the great things about our sport is baseball has that, I think, more than football does even for a, you know, a historic team like the Packers. I think they hold, they hold a separate, a different sort. sort of spot in the Wisconsin sports ecosystem. And when the brewers are good, there is nothing like it in this state. It's just totally different than really anything I can, you know, even thinking back to living here when the box won it all five years ago.

So there's a lot of passion. The tickets are, they cost a lot of money right now. Fans are going to Tampa because it's cheaper. I think there's going to be a lot of brewers fans there. So from that aspect, I think people have just been. soaking in the last week and, you know, constantly reminding themselves, the brewers, holy crap, the brewers are in the World Series. And then as soon as the game start Friday, I'm curious and, you know, excited in some ways to see how, how that energy shifts and suddenly,

suddenly it's not good enough. And you're going to want to, you know, put this thing over the top. Because if they do, it'll be, it'll be quite a sight to behold in a land of, a land of beer. You anticipated my next question, which is about the voracious demand for tickets. Take us through the timeless ticket kerfuffle. And then also clearly just demand is outstripping supply here. And so is this just the pent-up demand of 44 years? Is it actually more feasible to go to Florida to get a ticket than to stay put and see the Brewers play at home? Ah, the timeless ticket.

I have chosen to largely stay away from this. You know, the nice thing about working in a large newsroom is, especially when everyone is interested in the brewers is people will grab things up. But it sure seems like quite the debacle on both sides where I'm like, well, I mean, like, part of me is like, well, what did you, what did you expect? Right. But then the other part of me is like, well, yeah, you know, you know what? Maybe the brewery should have handled this a little bit better.

So I do not know anyone that bought the timeless ticket and that is probably good. I probably would have told them you should just invest your $1,000 of expendable income, apparently that you have invested somewhere else. And then you can buy a World Series ticket. That's probably what I would have told them in this hypothetical where the brewers never make the World Series. I can't, you know, this was not supposed to happen. Right. And then, yeah, I know, I know lots of people.

Like friends go into Tampa. I did a story on it this week, guys, for some DM, you know, just sent out a post and I was like, hey, is anyone going to Tampa if it says cheaper, thinking I'd get a couple DMs and I got, I kid you not, like 200 DMs. And so if that's any indication, there's going to be a lot of Brewers fans. I mean, look, their tickets. If you got them at face value, which a lot of people did, they were smart. You got 400, 500, 600, 600 bucks.

flights. It was so cool to see how the airlines actually were the ones gouging everyone. I got my flight for a pretty good rate of doing the ALCS is going on and then seeing how the prices were going up for Milwaukee and Chicago to Tampa after the LCS was over. I was like, that's awesome, man. I love that all these flights are $1,000 or more. You guys are great. But as long as you got your flight before that, you're in a good spot. Yeah, on top of the already raised prices because the fuel is, so to speak, sky high, and that has already raised airfares. So, yeah, now it's the double gouge. Yeah, I guess the timeless ticket, the one thing they did seem to do well was apologize for this.

I don't know whether that is mollified people. But, yeah, they put out a statement and they said sorry and that we should have prioritized the timeless ticket people more than we did and given them first crack at the better tickets. and they have enabled the people to at least go to the games, even if they're in the nosebleed somewhere. You get a free World Series ticket, kind of. Yeah. Plus, you keep your timeless ticket for another occasion. Yeah.

And given the cost of these seeds, even if you didn't get the primo ones that you thought, you probably got more than your money's worth, I guess. So even accounting for a thousand bucks in 2015 or whatever being 1,400 or so now. But I was going back and listening because Sam and I discussed the time. timeless ticket offer because this podcast has been on so long, a timeless podcast, one might say, or endless at least, that we talked about this on episode 599. And we were sort of skeptical, I think, that this would all work out and be honored. And there was some fine print there.

It says, oh, okay, all ticket redemptions are subject to availability. Oh, come on. That spoils everything. Yeah. I'm out. This is like when this is like when Columbia House would tell you that CDs costs $899 and up. Right. Oh, really, and up.

Owners of the timeless ticket. It might cause more. Our advice to contact the Brewers' Box Office with their selected game as early as possible. So. Man. Well, that ruins the whole thing. If I can't count on strolling up to the box office five minutes before first pitch. and getting my timeless ticket fulfilled.

I mean, they're not promising anything in that language, right? Really? No. Nothing. Like, nothing is guaranteed. God, just like everything. Just too many caveats. Just like everything.

Right. The fine print. Everything else does let me down. Just like my daughter. I mean, I would not have been giving financial advice at that part of my life, but in no way, shape, or form what I have, what I have rationally, hopefully, he told anyone this is a good. investment.

Yes. So please provide your review of the unofficial Brewers postseason anthem, the Phonem Brewer's song. Oh. Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee Brewers. Let's put some baseball and get some hum-mline.

Let's put some baseball. I think I'm going to piggyback off Trevor McGill, who is the ones singing it more than anyone. Don't get me wrong. That song is terrible. But the guy needs to be at the parade. Yeah. It's so, it's perfectly bad. You've got to lean into this.

I mean, you know, when, when these sort of things happen, you got to latch on to the weird things that come along with it. And that song is like, if you're not from Milwaukee, you may not understand. Like, that song is so Milwaukee. It's almost too Milwaukee. And that's, that's just, that's just how it is here, man. It's a weird place. Yeah. As long as they do keep getting some.

home runs. You've got to keep, it's like some sort of magical incantation or something. You have to just keep that thing on repeat, even if it makes your ears bleed just for the good of the team. I really hope they play it if someone hits a home run. I don't think they have that in them, but I would love it. We're going to get an All-Dome World Series for the first time. Will they be banking on, let's ride the batted ball luck of hitting the roof and it'll be chilly enough to close it up. Well, the weather's nice this weekend. High is 69. So that's, that's, that's, that's a nice weather for the game one, 67, game two, and then after that, you know, if it comes back here for sure roof closed. But yeah, I think they'll close it. I should know the answer to

this and don't. But you're here so you can just tell me, are they allowed to close it mid-game or does it have to be open or close? Okay. But they can't reopen it after, right? That's umpires, yes. That is an belief to be correct. Which is what sometimes it turns into a sauna because of that. But the decision in the postseason comes from the league. The brewers don't make that call. And then, yeah, I do not foresee them beginning it open if there's, you know, if there's any chance of having to close it. Like they don't really do that during the season unless a rainstorm pops in it usually.

Gotcha. Only maybe three or four times, though, it'll actually close during your game. Well, I would close by asking you what would constitute success in this series. But I think that's pretty obvious. A good time. A good time. Yeah, just have fun. Just have fun.

Everybody have fun. Just everyone. Try your best. Yeah. Good sportsmanship. Yeah. Well, everyone should go read and support. Kurt and his colleagues, subscribe to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

I'll pick up a hard copy for some souvenirs if you're so inclined. And you've got double-barreled brewers pods going these days, right? I do, yeah. We've got the Journal Sentinel Microbrewera podcast. And then we've also got Brewer Territory with my friends. You named name dropped him earlier, J.P. Fire Horizon and Corey Canable. So we're going to record that later tonight. Wow. Well, you're much in demand. I'm glad we could book you. Just big podcast guy. Big podcast guy. Yeah. Thanks for squeege as I said.

Thanks. Thank you, Kurt. This was wonderful. Enjoy the series. And we will enjoy your work. Of course, guys. Thanks. And now it's time to get the other side of the story. We'll be back in just a sec with MLB.com's Adam Barry for the Rays series preview. Did Richard Love Lady ever strike a Taylor Teagot and who had more war, Jason Kendall or Russell Martin, what if Show Here Toney's dog was also a good lawyer? What would you do if Mike Drutcher showed a binger foyer, or is it foyer? Find out, uneffectively wild. Find out, uneffectively wild. Find out uneffectively wild today.

All right, we are joined now by Adam Berry, Ray's Beat Reporter for MLB.com. who received a call from Ray is president of baseball operations, Eric Neander, right at the time that we were scheduled to do a podcast. And wisely, he took Eric's call before ours because he is dedicated to his beat. Adam, welcome and no hard feelings, Eric, for preempting the podcast. Listen, I did tell him that I had to get going because I had a very important interview. And I told him where I was talking. And he said, I understand.

So all good. Yeah. I mean, look, that front office still owes us. I think for stealing one of our hosts. So it's the least they could do, really. But probably wise on your part to prioritize the pobo over the podcast. And really, you were probably just putting the podcast first because you were trying to gather the most up-to-date information in order to share it with our listeners.

So really, you were thinking of effectively wild. Yes, totally. 100% for this, definitely not just trying to get through the 19 stories I've got to write today as early as possible. It's all for you guys all the time. We appreciate it. So I don't know if this came up in your call with Eric, but I do wonder whether the raise foresaw being in this privileged position here. I was looking back at the standard for success that you set in our preseason preview.

And your goal for what would constitute a successful season for the race actually didn't even pertain to their on-field play. it was about resolving the stadium situation, which I guess mission accomplished seemingly, more or less. But I don't know if the fact that the goal was about the stadium had to do with the fact that expectations maybe publicly, at least, were a little lower for the raise coming into this year. So how do you think they managed to exceed expectations and projections? And do you think they surprise themselves or internally did they see this coming all along? So I'll start with that part. Internally, they actually did think that they were going to be better than certainly the public expectations, maybe even my own kind of forecast heading into the season. This is kind of a rare thing, but we actually heard about a speech that Eric Neander gave in the clubhouse in St. Louis before opening day where he basically went out and told the team, again, pretty rare for him to do, you know, give a rah-rah speech before opening day. like this team is better than people are giving you credit for. You know, the front office believes in this team.

They put their roster together for a reason. And it was on the players to go out there and prove it, which they did. And you can go back and look at some of the things that he has said and told me that he believed then that really just panned out exactly the way the season played out, which was he's talked about the three peas. He saw power at the top of the lineup in the big three, Viondi Diaz, Jonathan Arana, Jr. Camerrero. So he saw pressure coming from the bottom of the lineup, that kind of contact-oriented, Chandler Simpson, you know, focused group that doesn't strike out a ton that puts the ball in play that makes other teams make mistakes. And then pitching, which, you know, they have definitely had and they've done their usual run prevention thing. They so often have their rotation is good. Their bullpen has been unexpectedly good considering some of the things that they've dealt with.

And, I mean, on top of that, or what he calls the three Cs, it's a huge season for. rule of three writers like myself. Just a wonderful thing. Chemistry, camaraderie, and cohesion. And this is actually something that I completely agree with that we saw play out through spring training that I didn't necessarily know about this group, probably at the time we talked. This was a group where clubhouse chemistry actually did make a difference. I'm usually a skeptic when it comes to that kind of thing. You know, I think it's applied retroactively a lot of times. In this case, you saw it early on. You saw the way that it can make a difference, the way that it turned out to be a selfless group and the way that they behaved together that turned

into a selfless group with the way that they played on the field. So I think they saw some aspects of this, if you would have said, they'll be in the World Series. I think they probably would have still been pleasantly surprised back then. But, you know, there were elements of this that we didn't necessarily see at the time that they believed in, you know, despite kind of the public expectations. Yeah, that's interesting because if I recall the thrust of our conversation, there had been a lot of turnover and a lot of new names and faces. And it wasn't entirely clear when the dust settled whether this was an upgrade or not, and evidently it was, the dust has settled. And so I guess to have that gel well, because that was the story of the underperforming Mets, right? That, oh, they had this huge

off-season overhaul and there were all these new people. And so maybe that had something to do with the fact that the team didn't gel well. And you could sort of say the same about the raise, maybe some lower priced acquisitions, but nonetheless, a lot of them. And so for that to come together, somehow, I suppose that's a testament to, I don't know, either luck, serendipity, or some of the leaders who were already in place, or Kevin Cash, or the front office, or all of the above. I go to Nick Martinez. I'll admit, I didn't know a ton about the guy when he got here. He is an elite actual game-changing clubhouse guy.

And, you know, maybe I should have understood the whatever it was, the second third day spring training when Kevin Cash said he heard from Terry Francona, who'd managed him in Cincinnati, like, you're going to love this guy. and like the second day of spring training, Cash called him back or texted him back and said, I already do. He's been kind of the glue that brought this clubhouse together, you know, being able to speak English and Spanish, being a pitcher who can relate to position players. It was college shortstop growing up. Maybe that was part of it. You know, he's just a good hang. He's a vibes guy, as a lot of people referred to him as. And he's really brought the group together and kind of just this selfless, understated way that has played out throughout the course of the season. And that's kind of the soft side of us. There's obviously a lot of on the field stuff that we can talk about as far as what has led to the overfinding. overperformance or, you know, meeting their own internal expectations. But that is one thing with

this group that I'm typically the last person to buy onto like the chemistry and the clubhouse narrative story or whatever. But like it's been very real from this group since spring training. They've been saying it since then and it held up throughout the course of the season. You can even see it in the way that they celebrate these, these clinches that they've had. Yeah, let's talk about the on the field beyond the vibes because one is not sustained on vibes alone, although good vibes certainly help. You know, I think one of the things about this group that strikes me is that we are accustomed to anonymous but very dominant sort of pitching staffs from the raisin. This group came together a little bit differently.

It's a good bullpen. It's maybe not, you know, as famously good as some of the others, but still has standouts like Brian Baker. Talk to us maybe about Baker. I want to start there because if you had told me that this was the guy they were going to get when they brought him in, I would have been surprised. And that's despite him having had a couple of good seasons. in the past. So talk to us about that bullpen group and Baker at the top of it.

Yeah, it all starts with him. I mean, when we probably talked in spring training, my guess is, my memory is we were talking about some sort of three-headed monster at the back end with Edwin Useda, who didn't throw a pitch for this team all season, Garrett Clevenger, who was hurt and struggled, and Griffin Jacks, who kind of went from a failed starter to reliever to a failed reliever turned starter. And Brian Baker was like, the other guy, the fourth guy, who, like, maybe would pitch some high leverage situations if the other guys were unavailable. But the work that he did really heading into his last spring training with the Orioles where he found a grip change with the change up and started throwing that more. It became a better pitch for him, more velocity differential off the fastball.

That carried over and, you know, kind of intrigued the race when they made that trade at the 25 deadline. And then it really started paying off when he had a full spring training in a little bit more time with Kyle Snyder with the rest of the race pitching group to just trust it more to basically just ditch the slider, be a fastball changeup guy. We can talk about that more as far as the raise usage. of the change up this season, he kind of embodies it, leaning into it, leaning into his strengths, trusting himself, and that's something that the race do so well with all their pitchers, obviously. But Brian Baker is just like this classic race success story and the way that he's done it and, you know, been so dominant and so unexpectedly incredible. And also just the fact that he, you know, his performance basically convinced them to go back to

a traditional closer model that they were almost excited to get away from when they let Pete Fairbanks go last offseason. It says a lot about, I think, Kevin Cash's flexibility, the way that he's managed this roster as well, leaning into his personnel, but also Baker himself, of course. And then the group behind him is just really falling into place in typical Ray's fashion. I mean, you know, Tyler Wells came over, another former Oriole who throws a change up a lot with the traded line. He was so good in August. I think he'll play a big role in the World Series.

Campozer, I mean, the best story in baseball, probably, with all that he's overcome. And then, I mean, just what he's overcome is incredible enough. Just getting to the big leagues is a movie for that guy. You know, he's by far the best left-handed reliever in this bullpen. He's going to get some of the biggest outs on this stage. and then your usual, you know, Kevin Kelly's and the group like that behind him. It's been not a dominant bullpen, like you said, maybe not as kind of crazy, classic rays. You know, the strikeout stuff isn't quite as good, but just super effective the whole season, really.

So Baker has been nails, but people have been on Vila watch with him. You mentioned the velocity, so he has yet to allow a run this postseason. So it's not as if anyone has touched him, but he did seem to lose a tick or three. And you mentioned the separation. the separation was still there, but are there any concerns about fatigue, him getting gassed? Will a few days off help? I actually don't know if it's so much fatigue or being gassed. He got sick in early September and missed a couple days.

It was not available for a couple days. And when he came back from that, the Velo wasn't totally there. So then I think you combine that with just sort of this sprint to the finish line that is, you know, the end of September and then the postseason. I think he'll be hard pressed to get that velocity back. But the question is really just can he be effective with what he has? and so far he has been. Now, the Brewers are obviously going to be a tougher matchup than, you know, the kind of diminished Yankees lineup they saw and the Guardians for sure. But I think as long as he has that separation between the fastball and the changeup and he's able to locate and execute and execute where he wants, he can still be effective.

You're just missing some of that margin for air that, you know, being able to reach back for 96, 97 gives you. And then the bridge to Baker has been a bit shaky at times just because kind of short on personnel, especially from the left side. And Boozer has been great, but he is only one guy. and Clevenger's absence slash ineffectiveness has loomed large. And so Cash has tried to press Ian Seymour into that role of high leverage lefty. And that's been a bit shaky. So are they going to stick with that plan into the World Series? Is there any other option?

Because, you know, some of these guys like Kelly have been quite effective against opposite-handed hitters. So maybe there's not as much of a need to play platoon matchups. I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if Clevenger is. back on the World Series roster. He wasn't on the LCS roster. They went with Brody Hopkins who didn't pitch, just for the idea that maybe he could catch lightning in a bottle, throw 103 with a, you know, breaking ball

that goes from one batter's box to the other. But he didn't wind up needing him. I don't know if you necessarily want that on the stage. Maybe Clevenger, who's kind of had a little more been there, done that, had a little bit more time to recover from the injury. He was dealing with at the end of the season. Maybe he gets back in there. But I think they still like and trust Ian Seymour.

He was good in the DS against the Yankees and sort of that pocket of left-handed hitters when he had to come. in multiple times in that series. The CS was definitely kind of the shaky version of Ian Seymour that you see. Frankly, it just happens sometimes when he's not commanding, when he's not getting strike one. It tends to get away from him a little bit. So I think they're not going to lose faith in him.

They love his stuff. He is a guy who, especially during the season when he moved into that rotation, bulk-ending starting role, was getting strikeouts. So they do see him as a swing and miss option when he's at his best. I think they're really going to need all those guys to contribute at some point because the rotation and the people who ended the season in, you know, as starters carried them, especially through the DS. I think it was the starters and Baker got all but four outs. And then the CS you had to introduce a little bit more of that bridge where it got

shaky, but they're going to need them at some point in this World Series, obviously. Yeah, I suppose it kind of took us out of order by starting with the bullpen and we can maybe go back to the rotation now the guys they hope will, you know, give them some innings to get there. And Drew Rasmussen probably doesn't need an introduction at this point. I actually want to start with Peralta because I think that, you know, when when he's, you know, when he's, you know, when he came over from the Mets, people gave him sort of the grace they tend to give trade acquisitions of the race, which is like, well, surely they have a plan to fix him. So what have you seen change for him from, you know, the guy he was in New York to the guy he is now ALCS MVP?

That's right. And how do you think he'll be able to sustain that against a brewer's lineup that doesn't really chase very much, is very disciplined, takes its walks, take us through the Paralta Brewers matchup? It's more so about getting back to the guy. that he was in Milwaukee for all those years. We asked him at one point, do you feel like the race fixed you? And he's like, no, because I wasn't broken. And you could disagree with that based on the performance he had with the Mets, of course. But it was more just getting him back to the things that he did mechanically with the brewers.

It was ditching the wind up, getting him quicker down the mound, moving him to the third base side of the rubber to kind of increase that crossfire deception in his delivery, getting him back to trusting his fastfall, getting his extension back, his arming all back up a little bit because it had dropped a little bit based on some of the lower half. issues that were plaguing him in New York. And once he started to get all that back, you know, you didn't see it immediately in his first couple of starts, which unfortunately for him, we're at Coorsfield and in Sacramento, just like the two worst places to come in as a trade deadline acquisition in the rotation. But then you started to see it get back, and then you started to see the confidence build. And I didn't necessarily know a ton about Freddie Peralta personally before he got here, but he's just such a joyous presence. And when you started to see him smiling, when you started to see him kind of bopping around, feeling good about himself, you

really started to see the performance tick up, then all of a sudden he's a pitcher of the month for September, and then all of a sudden he's throwing 99 in the postseason. And you've really just seen that kind of all come back to him, you know, thanks to the changes that he made in those first couple of weeks with the raise. So I think they've got him in a good place. He's especially good at Tropicana Field. I think that same philosophy and that same principle would apply if he, you know, is able to pitch here in Milwaukee in one of the first two games of the series based on the familiarity that he has. As long as he keeps, you know, the command going to where it has been so far if he's getting ahead, if he's able to use the fastball at the top of the zone and play

the change up more often off of that and mixing in some of the early count breaking balls that he's kind of reintroduced here with the raise since he came over. He should be in pretty good shape to make one or two starts a series. I have a silly question that I asked on the Brewer's segment and I will pose it to you too. So Freddie Peralta, ALCS MVP, made his debut with the Brewers. Jake Bowers, NLCS MVP made his debut with the raise. If someone proposed swapping them for this series, who says no, taking into account the fact that this would never happen because they're happy with having them in chemistry concerns and such. But if it in terms of potential impacts, I guess, which would you rather have right now?

Oh, that'd be great TV, though. You just like put Neander and Matt Arnold in a press conference right before the series starts and you say, all right, well, you make this trade and they have to decide on the spot. Yes. Something to consider for the future, maybe. I think the raise would say no, just because they do need Peralta to carry those innings and that spot in the rotation, you could say maybe that would help the depth of their lineup, but they're pretty okay with the places that Bowers would play. So theoretical trade, I'm forced onto the podium on MLB Network live. I'm going to say, raise, keep Freddie Peralta.

I think that's right. Yeah, even if in a vacuum sort of maybe the impact could be similar, I suppose, when you have Aranda and you have Diaz and Bowers can play outfield and everything too, but they're pretty well set at those positions. So yeah. Well, maybe we can spend a little time now on his rotation mate. Tell us about the Drew Rasmussen experience this postseason because it's been a sight to see. He's so good.

And to go back to something I think I said with you guys in the season preview, I no longer feel like I'm keeping a secret covering Drew Rasmussen. Everyone's kind of starting to catch on to it. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball, Kyle Snyder, who doesn't really come out and make grand proclamations off and just comes out and says he's the best right-handed starter in baseball. he's always the most underrated pitcher in baseball. He is the industry standard for work ethic, preparation, all the things you can say about, you know, the kind of person and pitcher you want in a staff ace. He makes it pretty simple.

It's about preparation and execution. I haven't been around a pitcher who prepares as well as Jerusalem. Kevin Cash, when I asked him about it before, actually, the division clinching game in New York, at the end of September, dropped a Roy Halliday comp on him and Cash caught Roy Halliday. So he knows what that means when he says it. And then that was before a double header and cash left that. And he said, boy, I don't know if I should have said that. Like, that was a pretty heavy weight to drop on him. Then he went out and pitched the game of his life then, double down on it with the game of his life again in the ALDS.

It's just such premium execution. Command is so impeccable. He doesn't get rattled. The stuff is electric, the way that he has evolved as a pitcher since he came here, which will be a storyline, obviously, since he got traded over from the Brewers. You know, he came over as a sinker slider guy. Now he's one of those classic three fastball pitchers who developed. to change up basically out of nowhere last offseason, and he threw that pitch more than he's ever thrown in his career in Cleveland in an ALCS win. It says so much about him, so much about

the talent, the adaptability, just kind of the understanding of who he is as a pitcher. I really cannot say enough good things about Drew Raspuson, how important he is, the way that he's blown past his innings thresholds, the way that he's kept his body healthy despite coming back from two Tommy Johns and an internal brace procedure. He is the guy that you kind of want your staff to follow, and And it'll actually be interesting once we get through this in the offseason. He's got a $20 million club option that's a price that the raise have never paid for a player. If there is somebody that they pay it for, I think it's somebody like Jurasmussen, which probably says more than anything else I said during this long and rambling answer. Yeah, I did want to ask about the innings because the effectiveness on a per inning basis has not been in doubt with him for some time.

But you don't necessarily expect him to be going super deep into games. And then he shut down the Yankees for eight innings in the ALDS. and Cash has pushed him and stuck with him a little longer. He's gotten in a little trouble late in the last couple outings. So I wonder how they're thinking about that. Of course, it's funny to have the raise in Kevin Cash be in a situation where people are saying, maybe they should have pulled that pitcher earlier. It's not as if Rasmussen has had any times through the order penalty this year,

although he's had some over the course of his career as virtually every pitcher does, but still has been effective even accounting for that. And as we just noted, the bullpen is not quite the deep shutdown unit that it has been in some years. So are they thinking just stick with him as long as he's cruising? And will they be having a quicker hook or are they just willing to let it ride? My guess is he's the one guy that you ride with just based on the effectiveness, the stuff, as long as he's maintaining his stuff, obviously. You know, he has the different pitches in the arsenal where the times through the order penalty shouldn't be as steep against him. He has different ways that he can go about executing to go back to something.

I remember Clint Hurdle saying when I cover the Pirates, like sometimes your starter is your best seventh inning guy. I think with Rasmussen, that probably is the case more often than not just based on all the things that I mentioned before. So I think if there's one guy that they're willing to ride more often than anybody else, it'll be Rasmussen. And it is funny. And it was funny. And what was it, ALCS game one where there was like, oh, Kevin Cash, leaving a starter in too long. I'm like, what are we doing here? All right, we're through the Rupacom here.

And then, you know, in terms of the Rupacch, game. rest of the games here. I'm sure they would love to throw Rasmussen and Paral to every game, but they can't. So as you think through, who's likely to take, well, at least take the ball first in some of their other games here against the Brewers, how do you see the rest of that innings puzzle getting pieced together? I would think similar to the CS, you'll probably look at Nick Martinez and Griffin Jacks filling those starter roles. Those are guys where I think you can safely say cash will have a shorter leash on them. Martinez, you know, doesn't have the velocity, doesn't have the swing and miss. So you're probably going to be a little bit more.

careful, maybe not let him go more than two times through the order. Similar thing with Griffin Jacks. He definitely has the pitches in the depth of the arsenal to do it, but there's also a workload concern with him as somebody who moved out of the bullpen into the rotation. So I think that would be the group of four that you're going to see starting games in this World Series. And then, you know, there's still the possibility like they did in the CS of bringing back a starter on a throw day to pitch behind one of the other starters. Peralta has been very down for that. He did it in the CS. I think that speaks to him as a teammate, by the way, considering he's about to be a free agent that he's willing to go out and do.

that. And then Martinez is willing to do anything. And they did it with Jacks and the DS as well, just based on their history, the flexibility. These guys have pitched as relievers, as starters. They're comfortable doing whatever it takes. And as cash said, really going into the ALDS, like, those are the pitchers, those five starters at the end of the season, those four in E and Seymour are probably the best they've got. They're going to lean on them as much as they can. So is Eric Neander aware that the Rays are now an old school organization? And Jeff Sullivan, senior analyst and his colleagues sidelines don't need their analytics input. anymore. I'm kind of kidding here, but there is this national, ill-informed debate raging about both the race and the brewers, which must be amusing for you as someone who has covered the race for years. Yeah, apparently they bunt 27 times a game, and I've just missed it all season. Yeah, sacrifice bunt's all they do. Stunning development to see it all happen all at once here once they got into the postseason and people started paying more attention. It speaks well to the group that just they're flexible. It's not about one principle and one philosophy.

it's about changing your tactics and what you do based on the personnel that they have. Chandler Simpson can bun. Cedric Mullins can bunt. Nick Fortes can bunt. Junior Camerro, not going to bunt. Yanni Diaz, not going to bunt. That's not what this is about. This is about accentuating the strengths of the players that they have and trying to maximize

them as a group with what they can do together. That's something that this group has done extremely well. I think Kevin Cash deserves a lot of credit for that for being willing to kind of reconsider his priors about bunting, about having a set close. or about some of the other small ball tactics that they have deployed throughout the course of the season. And, you know, there is something to be said for that. But yeah, you're right. This is not like an old school, the will to win, grit and grind kind of team.

Like, this is a very smart baseball team that just recognizes what they have and tries to get the most out of it. Yeah, though a legitimate version of that jokey question. I do wonder sort of chicken or egg wise because they do bunt and bunt well a lot by recent standards. And of course, there is a very analytically driven argument that that makes sense because teams aren't defending for it anymore and they aren't going after players like that anymore. And so buntz, bunting for hits, that has been rewarded. So I guess the question is, did they determine that and say, hey, let's draft Chandler Simpson, let's go get guys like this who might have this in their repertoire?

Or did they get those guys and then say, well, we have these guys. So I guess we should explore this. It's a little bit of both understanding that Chandler, in particular because he is a homegrown player, had skills that weren't necessarily appreciated by the industry at the time, the contact, the speed, the lack of power, obviously. And then once he gets into the fold, once he kind of proves that he can make it work at this level, all right, well, how do you build around that? You know, it is hard to get nine junior Camerrero. It's hard to get nine Yandi Diaz's, but you can create a lineup that can beat teams in a lot of different ways, which is definitely a strength of this team. team by kind of blending those skill sets and putting them together in a way that makes sense, which is, you know, that power and maybe a little bit more swing and miss with Jonathan Aranda

toward the top of the order. And then just that kind of constant pressure where you can manufacture runs. You can make pitchers uncomfortable, certainly make defenses uncomfortable at the bottom of the order. And I think once they started to see the personnel that they had coming together, whether that's, you know, Chandler, Richie Palacios, Taylor Walls, like I mentioned before, then they can kind of start to devise a game plan and a strategy around that. So, again, it's never just one thing with this team. It's a lot of things coming together at the same time. And I think that applies toward their offensive philosophy as well. People have spent a good amount of time thinking about how the brewers and their sort of grinding approach are going to match up against the race starters. But flipping that, you know, you talk about this sort of bifurcated, one might say, offensive identity. You have the boppers up top. You have the speed guys down below. How do you think about that lineup matching up against the particulars of the brewers? And maybe we can start with how does this group match up against the high-octane velocity of Mizorowski?

That is their biggest challenge heading into the series. I'm glad you brought that up. They have not been a great team against that high-octane velocity in particular. And who are you going to get to start the series? Jacob Mizraowski, the highest-octane velocity. So I am curious to see how they go about that. That, to me, is a matchup where you need your big bats to come through. You know, you need Junior Camerreira to turn on one. you need Yandi Diaz to poke one of the opposite field like he always does.

And I think that's where the big bats become more important. That's where Liam Hicks becomes more important, likely batting in that cleanup spot behind the big three and ahead of those kind of contact-oriented speedsters at the bottom of the lineup. You know, maybe Victor Mesa can run into one. It is harder to string together a rally against that kind of premium velocity. And they have not slugged against that kind of premium velocity throughout much of the season. So that to me is maybe one of the most interesting kind of inside baseball matchup storylines. for this series. You mentioned Yandi, and the big question with Yandi,

is there a circumstance under which Yandi Diaz will challenge a pitch in this World Series? Game seven, bottom of the ninth, two outs, two strikes. Games on the line. Ray is down by a run, called strike on a ball three inches outside. Season is over. Does he challenge? Yes, yes, yes. He's actually said twice, I think, once to Mark Topkin,

then to me and the rest of the group, that maybe in the first of the group that maybe in the the World Series, he would consider it. So that the standard has been laid. The board is set. That is the only situation where he will challenge, apparently. I don't even know what to make of it. Honestly, I've covered it. I've answered so many questions about it.

Asked him so many times. Like, there's a stubbornness to it that I just kind of respect as a human being. Like, you know what, man? Like, do you? Like, that's what got you here? Go for it. Like, if you think this is going to make you even slightly worse of a hitter, if you're up there thinking about it, then whatever, man, like, do you?

But there are the situations where he'll turn it. and look at an umpire, and I'm like, all you got to do is just move your hand up there and tap. You have the ability. You have the power. But in the postseason, actually, Mike Petriello just wrote about this for us a little while ago, and I asked Kevin Cash about it, they have not issued a mandate that their hitters can't challenge in the playoffs, but they have very much told them, like, it has to be a game-changing high value at bat and pitch call for you to go out there and challenge.

Otherwise, they want it in the hands of their catchers throughout the course of the postseason so they do have them available toward the end of games. Now, none of that applied during the regular season when Yadi, of course, didn't challenge at all. So, who knows?

Maybe he'll challenge the first pitch of the World Series. That would be a good bit. Yeah, great bit. I would lean all the way into that. Yeah. It's like the prestige, but baseball, you know, he's just been committed this whole time,

but really he was the best challenger in the league saving it for the opportunity. Well, that's thinking he has such a good eye. It's like, you should be, you know, call your own balls and strikes. Like, you should be the one guy doing it whenever you want. But yeah.

Yeah, that guy's great. Just last scene chomping a piece of meat that looked like something out of the Flintstones and bellowing about protein. And yeah, it's not just him, although it is funny because he did have, as Petriol noted in that piece, a team high five chances to overturn an errand call in these playoffs. And he hasn't done so, including that high leverage spot late in game four. So I like the idea that ALCS, no, doesn't quite clear the bar. World Series, maybe. But yeah, the entire Ray's lineup, not a single Ray's hitter has challenged a pitch this postseason. So they are quite selective.

And that was interesting to me because they don't rate highly on the baseball savant leaderboards for run value from challenges, especially from hitters and everything. And you would have thought maybe given the Ray's reputation, oh, they will be practicing this and they'll be exploiting every edge and they'll be coaching their players on the right times to do this and everything. and it seems like they largely just let it slide. And I guess thought other things were more important, maybe. I think just the importance of run prevention to this team, you know, it's always like if you can score four runs, you're probably going to win. That's kind of the way this team is operated. And I guess it's more important to devote those resources to run prevention, kind of like they do in a lot of other areas than it is to, you know, try to squeeze out one extra base runner or whatever it may be or a, you know, a better count than when you're batting. Yeah.

And, you know, another possible weakness on. offense is platoon splits. And both the Brewers and the Reyes hit righties better during the regular season, the Reyes had a pretty large gap and were significantly worse against left-hand and pitching, although they've held their own in the postseason so far. So I wonder whether you think that can be exploited or whether the lineup they're running out these days is a little less vulnerable to that. They've been a little more static with the lineup in the postseason. Like they've mostly kept Liam Hicks in there as a left-handed hitter against even some left-hand pitchers. Nick Fortez has gotten a starter to, but they're more just prioritizing their top

bats rather than trying to squeeze out every last possible platoon advantage. In the playoffs, the weird thing about the stuff against lefties is that, yeah, they were a terrible hitting team against lefties, but their record against left-handed starting pitchers was actually really good, which maybe that speaks to some of their, well, their pitching in defense, first of all, but also just kind of their in-game maneuverability and the flexibility that they can deploy throughout the course of a game. And then obviously you go back to the ALDS when they had Max Fried in the game that they clinched that series. It was Ryan Vallade, who's going to play against lefties hitting a home run.

And it was Victor Mesa, who none of us knew could hit lefties this well, getting the start and, you know, hitting the biggest home run of the season to that point against lefties. So they still believe in the lineup they can run out there. It helps when you have Yondie and Jr. batting in the top three. Maybe they, you know, sneak in Ryan Vallade into the third spot in the order and bump Jr. down to clean up just to bank an extra right-handed bat at bat against the leftie. But I think they're going to, you know, take.

their chances basically whoever's run out there on the mound. I think one of my favorite things about postseason baseball is when you have these guys who are unheralded, perhaps even to a certain extent, in their local market, and the whole country gets to learn about them. I think Victor Mesa Jr. is a great example of that. I mean, there are any number of race who you can say that of, but Mesa, probably one of the more anonymous ones in a group that doesn't have a ton of name recognition nationally. So talk just about Mesa because I knew that Victor Mesa Jr. had a great arm.

Yeah. I didn't maybe one appreciate just how good it was. And also, I did not expect him to come up in clutch moments the way he has at the plate. So talk to us about the Victor Mesa Jr. experience because, boy, it's so funny. He has a 21 WRC plus in the postseason. And if you had told me he had a 121 WRC plus, I would have believed it. Totally. Like, completely agree with that.

And he's made such a difference in the outfield with that arm that you mentioned. Like, he has prevented extra bases, just the mere presence of him that thought of him, which that's super valuable again when these games have such small margins for victory. But Victor Mesa going back to spring training was not even a guy that I put a ton of thought into at that point. I know he was so far down the death chart where Jake Fraley was going to be the right fielder against right-handed pitching. And then they had Jacob Melton coming in in that trade where it was like, oh, how long until he's taking that job? And then also they acquired Victor Mesa and this minor trade with the Marlins near the end of the off season. And he was hurt for much of spring training.

And then I think he got hurt in Durham. And then all of a sudden, you know, enough people go down, Fraley, Johnny DeLuca got hurt for a little while, and up comes Victor Mesa. And then it wasn't his first game, maybe it was his first game that he actually played it. And he hits just this absolute tank in Baltimore. And I go, okay, like, where did that come from? I didn't know he had this in there. The power was very real. He hit for a little bit more contact than I expected the speed and just kind of the instincts, I think, are something that really stood out to me and something that his coaches have talked a lot about.

They say he's just one of the most instinctual baseball players they had. have just his feel for the game, his smarts for the game, you know, being able to read situations and understand what he needs to do. And then throughout the course of the season, the thing that developed is like he has a totally different approach against lefties where he's able to keep it simple and stay inside of balls that he shouldn't be able to hit. And then he's just developed into such an impact player for them, obviously this season in such a big way. But then like, he's basically made himself the right fielder heading into next season and kind of changed the trajectory of his career throughout the course of this season. Plus, he's just such a fun guy,

such a fun story. I mean, there was like a bit in the middle of the season where he was just like the messy guy because he has like three tattoos of Leo Messi on his body and he was a big World Cup guy. And then that was kind of when we started to see his personality come out. He got very comfortable with the team. He's such an other vibes guy. His Nick Martinez would say it's really just hard to kind of calculate the impact that he's had on this team. Taylor Walls has been putting on a clinic at shortstop this postseason and I guess all season, really. We've probably talked to you about this before. The big divide between his defensive run saved and his fielding run value, the stack cast based.

And obviously, the rays have sided with, no, he's amazing at shortstop. That's why he has played because he is not much of a hitter, though he was a little bit better this year. But watching him, the eye test certainly suggests, yeah, I think DRS might have this, right? So, you know, because of that difference, he's a huge war differential guy. Yeah. Where baseball reference, which is based on DRS, has him as a 13.4 career. War 3.5 this year, and Fangraphs War 1.6 and 0.8. And I do typically side with fangrass

war, but I think I got to give it up to DRS on this one. And I think the stat cast-based stats by MLB's own accounting maybe are even more reliable when it comes to outfield play. Yeah, but what is it exactly? Do we know what it is that he is not being credited with appropriately here? So this has been my white whale for a while now. Yeah. And just trying to figure out, especially, you know, as an MLB.com employee, we use statcast, we use their metrics a lot. And I'm just feeling like a complete idiot when I'm writing Taylor Walls, the best defensive shortstop in baseball who has a negative four outs above average. Like, all right. So Mike Petriello early on this season sent me a stat that I was not familiar with.

I hadn't dug that deep into it called estimated success rate. And it's basically the way that stat cast views infielers opportunities based on where they're positioned at the time the pitch is thrown. and Taylor Walls was leading the league in this at the time. This is like May or June. I thought, well, that's interesting. So then I went and I pulled it up, you know, every shortstop season dating back to 2021 when Taylor Walls debuted in the top four seasons, I believe were Taylor Walls, Taylor Walls, Taylor Walls and Taylor Walls.

Well, that can't be a coincidence, right? Like something's going on there. Of course, the raised position there, defenders very well. That's something that they've done for a long time dating back to 2008 even. So I started asking around, started talking to the coaches and Taylor Walls himself, who loves to talk about defense, of course. And I came up with probably one of my favorite stories that I wrote all season, which is basically just to appreciate Taylor Walls is not just to watch him

when he's making those plays that you're talking about, when he is making the sliding, running, stopping, leaping, whatever plays. It's watching him as the pitcher is starting his delivery. It's watching him move when the pitch is called on the pitchcom that he obviously has in his hat as well. He has such an innate and instinctual feel for where to be on the baseball field, even before the ball is put in play. And talking about that with him was one of my favorite just conversations I've had in baseball period.

And then to hear his coaches talk about it the way that they say it's like he's cheating, basically, because he's moving where he needs to be well before he should have any idea, you know, where that is. I think it was Brady Williams saying if you look at the high home view, he's on his fourth step when everybody else is on their first. Like he's moving to where the ball's going to be before it even crosses the mound. There is such an innate talent to that that is hard to pick up in a stat. like fielding run value, like outs above average, probably even hard to pick up in DRS, frankly, but you really can appreciate it when you watch Taylor Walls play defense and really kind of hone in on them for a game. And I think people are starting to see that in this World Series.

A while back, Tommy Fam in one of his many grievances was suggesting that maybe outfielders are trying to juice their own stats by going over and taking other outfielders ball so that it will look like they have more range. I guess Walls is almost doing the opposite of that. So if he wants to juice his fan graphs where he should probably position himself a little less well. Yeah. And then his range would be even more apparent and get more credit. Right. Take a bad first step just to show how quick you can make up that range. But it is funny.

They want him taking other people's balls. Like they want him cutting off Caminero. They want him cutting off the second baseman. The joke is always get the ball of the number six. And he'll do most of that on his on. So we can probably save a deeper dive into the ballpark situation for next year's season preview, I suppose. assuming we have one, but done deal, as much of a done deal as these things are ever a done deal, because of course there have been some false starts and close calls with the raise before,

but 2029 on track? Yeah, done from a political perspective. They got the city and the council approval. They're still waiting on bonding agreements, I believe, through the government. And then there's like community benefits agreement to take care of. But yeah, this is as done as it's ever been. They're going to start breaking ground and figuring out, you know, how, Hillsborough College is going to get through the spring semester here relatively soon. Obviously,

some higher priorities right now here in Milwaukee. But yeah, then that's going to be the focus to try to get the thing open for a 2009 opening day. So, you know, now you can call the season a success based on what I said in spring training, right? Exactly. That and only that. Yeah. Everything else. There is a scenario that go throughout the course of the season where I was like, what if this ballpark deal doesn't get done and they win the World Series. And I have to drag my ass back on this podcast next spring and be like, well, you know, they didn't get it done. Yeah. Well, well, speaking of the current. park then the chop and attendance there because that has come up. Of course, there was the Kams Schlittler suggesting that it's like a home crowd for the Yankees. And it's been a loud

crowd. It has not always been a sellout crowd. We were just talking to Kurt Hogue about how some Brewers fans are going to Tampa because I can't say Tampa. I need, you know, I don't want to say Tampa Bay because Tampa Bay is like not really a place. But then they don't actually play in Tampa. So do I say St. Petersburg. We didn't do it. I know. It's not our fault. Here's the thing. You can throw the needle here. They're flying into Tampa most likely to go to St. Pete.

Sure. There you go. So some brewers' fans are flying into Tampa because the tickets were cheaper at the drop. So tell us a little bit about that. Obviously, just given the location and all the rest of it, attendance has been an issue there at times, which was a big part of the motivation for getting a new park. But what have the crowds been like? What has been the impediment to selling all those seats?

Will that be an issue in the World Series? I know Sam Blum wrote about the variable ticket pricing and whether that has had some impact. Yeah, it was not an issue in the DS. I think the Yankees of it all brought out both Yankees fans who are local and then Ray's fans who were really motivated to make sure it still sounded like a home crowd for the race, which it did, frankly. And a lot of that was the way the series went. Like Yankees fans really didn't have a chance to get amped up for much of anything. And it was loud. I mean, Kevin Cash, who's played in, you know, Fenway in the postseason, Yankee Stadium in the postseason.

He's been just about everywhere. He said that was maybe the best crowd that he's been a part of in baseball. And he said the same thing for ALCS game six. Games one and two of the ones where attendance was definitely down. That's where the variable pricing came into play, I think. That's where the Cleveland Guardians fan base not being quite as big locally, maybe not traveling as much, came into play as well. But game six, the race did make a lot of concessions, I think, as far as ticket pricing

and trying to entice people to come to the ballpark with different deals. There was like a bogo drink thing for it. It was like happy hour at the drop for two hours before the game started. So they've done what they can to fill the place. You would think in the World Series that won't be an issue, that there's going to be enough interest and understanding that this is the first time the ballpark has hosted a World Series game in 18 years because the last time they made it, it was obviously a neutral site World Series that people will sign up. People will want to be there and the race will do what they can from a pricing and understanding their fan-based perspective to get people in the ballpark. Because, I mean, it is a real homefield advantage, not just in the way that the park plays, but it gets. so loud in there. I'd kind of forgotten what it could be like and what a difference maker,

it can be when there's that many people in there and they're that end of the game throughout the course of a, you know, a situation that matters so much like that. Yeah, this is high-stakes stuff. The ALCS is one thing, but this is the World Series. Yandi Diaz might challenge a pitch. So be there. Yeah, exactly. Right. Yeah. So you were just talking to Neander. One of the ever-present stories about the raise is how there's brain drain and their people are poached. And I guess the Brewers are Exhibit A of that with Matt Arnold over there. Maybe the Dodgers are exhibit A. The Brewers are Exhibit B for Brewers. But this came to mind again when the A's just hired Taylor Smith directly from the Red Sox,

but a longtime Ray's front office guy. And even now when, of course, all baseball execs are sort of analytics friendly or savvy, Taylor Smith seems to be a stathead. I mean, he was on the Ray's R&D team. He was their director of predictive modeling. He was the AGM overseeing R&D and quantitative stuff for the Red Sox. And there still aren't that many people with that sort of resume who are actually running Baseball Operations Department's and he actually leapfrog GM and skip straight to Pobo. But add to the list yet another organization that's now run by an X-Rays person. And yet here are the race, yet again, just somehow, even though seemingly everyone else should

have caught up and know their secrets and all the rest of it, they are still standing here. So what's the secret? It's just such a great culture. I mean, this goes back to Stu Sternberg hiring Matt Silverman and Andrew Friedman and them hiring people. That's actually one of the things I was talking to Eric about is, you know, since they're facing the brewers led by Matt Arnold, just kind of that culture they had back then. And let me pull it up. Something we've already written in the story was the fact that it was a table with Andrew Friedman, Matt Arnold, Eric Neander, Heinbloom, James Click, and starting in 2009, Peter Bendix, all sitting around a table. Start there.

That's pretty good. And then they just invest in people so well, kind of like the way that they use their roster. They have such a deep bench of people. You guys know one of them quite well on down through the organization who are so smart and so talented and bring so much to the table. And it's such an inviting and kind of open culture to ideas that there's no such thing as a bad idea that they will take an idea and run with it and explore it to the end of its use, basically, to try to find something that can help them win a game or try to help them build a better culture or whatever it may be. And they keep refreshing that culture. I mean, those guys go out. John Daniels comes in on staff as a special assistant.

Brandon Hyde has been around as kind of a special assistant to baseball operations throughout the course of the season. His wealth of experience so valuable. People like Chandalottermilk, Sammy Byerley, they brought in Mike Ford, Bullsilzer, some other people, just to add lived experience. And then you can go from that to leaning on people like Mitch Lukovic and RJ Harrison who have been here since literally the beginning of the Devil Raise organization in 1995. they just do such a good job of inviting and blending all of those different perspectives to basically make sure that the well never runs dry. And, you know, they're excited when people get these jobs, when they get these interviews, when they get these opportunities.

I don't know if you mentioned him as well, but like Kevin IBOx name is getting thrown around for the Astros job, but he, I believe he interviewed for the A's job as well. Like, there is so much depth and so many just brilliant baseball people in this organization who've been encouraged to be themselves and bring what they have to the table that it's really hard to see this ever kind of changing from a front office perspective. Yeah. Jeff Sullivan just has to bide his time. I just, you know, it's going to be his turn to be a pobo someday.

I guess teams still tend to frown on poebo's working remotely, but nonetheless, he'll be next to the line of succession. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. And last question, we asked this of Kurt Hogue as well. Just is there a vulnerability that stands out to you in this series, whether it's against the brewer's specifically or just in general, something. that could do the raise in?

And is there any particular strength, some edge that you think the raise might have against stiff competition? So the strength, I'll start there, is something that I should have mentioned earlier, and it's something that really dawned on me at the end of the season, as far as how the race were able to do this on the field,

is they don't beat themselves. If you had to design a team that is not going to beat itself, it's exactly what they did. Fewest strikeouts is a lineup. Fewest walks as a pitching staff, best defensive efficiency ratio in baseball. They don't beat themselves.

themselves at the plate, they don't give extra outs, they don't get free base runners. That tends to play. That really played against Cleveland, where that's typically a pretty solid defensive team. They made a couple of mistakes. The race capitalized. That could swing a series in the race favor potentially, although the Brewers play a fairly similar game in that regard. So I'm kind of curious to see how strength-on-strength matches up there. The weakness is what Meg mentioned earlier, just the effectiveness against that high-octane pitching. You're going to see a deeper bullpen in Milwaukee than they've seen at any point in this postseason. You're going to see harder stuff from the rotation, especially as they get to air it out over shorter

outings. So I'm very curious to see who can kind of step up, make the adjustment necessary, and get to some of those big fastballs, or at least run-up pitch counts to get those guys out of a game early on. All right. Well, we will finally release you to write up whatever Neander told you and probably 10 other stories. So good luck with the series. We will look forward to your coverage at MLB.com and hope you get some sleep at some point. Thank you. I appreciate it. I don't know about the last part, but everything else should be good. Yeah, you can sleep in the offseason. Okay, and by the way, after we recorded, Ken Rosenthal reported that Nick Martinez will start game one for the raise. So strap in and buckle up everybody. I hope and think it's going to be a good one.

And I think we're due for a seven game series. Let's go the distance here. Because as we've noted, only two of the 10 series thus far have gotten to a winner take all. And it was a best of three and a best of five. So we haven't even gotten a game seven yet. And there will be between, 74 and 77 games played this postseason, depending on how long the World Series lasts. And regardless, that will be easily the fewest postseason games since the current playoff format was implemented in 2022. So we've been shortchanged. Let's have maximum postseason, minimum offseason, especially since there's some chance that the offseason could be extra long. But that's a concern for another day. For now, you can sign up to support

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You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at R.S.Effectively Wild. And you can check the show notes in the podcast posts at Fangraphs or Patreon or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today. Thanks to Andrew Norton for his editing and production assistance. We will be back with one more episode before the end of the week. Talk to you soon. We're going to crunch those stats. We're going to talk about baseball, sticky stuff and torpedo bats.

We'll talk about it all. If you want good takes on baseball and life, just tune in a Ben and his lovely co-host, Ben and Meg, it's effectively wild.