Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 26: The Return of Brett Anderson, Oakland’s Playoff Rotation, and the Financial Future of Stephen Drew

Episode Date: August 22, 2012

Ben and Sam talk about Brett Anderson’s Tuesday return from Tommy John surgery and its impact on Oakland’s potential playoff rotation, then discuss whether Stephen Drew would be wise to test the free-agent market this winter in light of the other shortstops available.

Good evening and good morning and welcome to episode 26 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Prospectus. I am the star of the show, Sam Miller, and with me as always is my sidekick, Ben Lindberg. Ben, are you as convivial as always today? I haven't slept since episode 25, so I'm feeling it a little bit, but I'm here and I'm enthusiastic. Have you watched any baseball since episode 25? Can we count highlights Can we count highlights or actual in-game broadcasts? I think highlights are probably as valuable as any of the nonsense that goes on in between pitches. I've watched highlights. I've watched this, certainly. What do you want to talk about tonight?

The comeback of Brett Anderson and the A's potential playoff rotation. Okay, and I will be talking about Steven Drew, so I guess it's an all A's episode. All right. Go for it. Okay, so the comeback of Brett Anderson. Brett Anderson came back, and he has not pitched since June 5th of last season. He had Tommy John surgery. He is now healed. He made a few rehab starts and he started tonight in the majors or last night if you're listening to this on Wednesday. And he is still in progress as we record this, but he has gone through seven innings and has been excellent.

It looks like his night is officially over now, so we can say that his line was seven innings. He gave up four hits, one run, zero walks, and six strikeouts. He threw 62 strikes in 86 pitches. So a lot of times with the guys coming back from Tommy John surgery, the expectation is that they will struggle with their control to some degree. He certainly didn't struggle to throw strikes at all last night. And his velocity, at least through his first 40 pitches or so, was around 91 miles per hour on his fastball, which is exactly where it was last season. So Anderson has, of course, been one of those tantalizing pitchers

who gets hurt often and has a lot of talent and seems to be perpetually on the verge of putting it together and having a really great season but he hasn't been able to stay healthy really for a whole one so it's kind of an unusual situation in that he's coming back now with not a whole lot of time before decisions have to be made about playoff rotations and such if the A's do manage to make it. And they have kind of an unusual playoff rotation in that they have guys who've been very effective and yet also guys who kind of are always on the verge of seemingly being less effective or less available, at least, with guys like Brandon McCarthy, who, like Anderson, is kind of one of those often injured but talented pitchers. pitchers, Bartolo Colon, who has been even better in his second season of coming back,

which I don't know if anyone expected, and Jared Parker. But Brett Anderson, if he were healthy and effective, would be probably the best lefty they have available. Right now, Tom Malone is their lefty in the rotation, and I don't know that he would pass the playoff starter test for us. So I don't know. I guess how good do you think Anderson would have to be over the next month or so to work his way into a playoff rotation should the A's need one? And how do you think their rotation stacks up to some of the other contenders? Well, it's a little hard to say because this is the time of, I mean, Do you think their rotation stacks up to some of the other contenders? Well, it's a little hard to say because this is the time of – I mean, you mentioned four of their starters.

There's also A.J. Griffin who's been starting. And Griffin and Malone and Parker are all guys who, if they were not playing for a contending team right now, you would probably be expecting maybe would be shut down by the time the season ended because they're all, I guess Malone is a bit older, but I mean, they're all fairly young. This is their, each player's first full year in the majors, and they all have thrown a lot of innings so it's it is um i guess one of the question marks is will those three will any of those three will all of those three maintain

the uh their effectiveness through september and um or whether they'll just look gassed uh look gassed uh by the time october rolls around and um make it so that really the A's don't even have a choice and they have to turn to Anderson if Anderson is still healthy. I don't know what you think about that. But it's certainly a factor, I would think. Do you know, do you remember when Anderson had surgery? When in the year was last year? Like I said said he will last pitch very early in june so i don't remember if he was one of those cases that dragged on a bit before he actually had surgery but i can look it up as you say something interesting well oh doggone it uh well he's the only he's the only player that we've named uh in this conversation that I think I have considered ace quality at any point in the last six or seven years.

And certainly if he shows that he's able to go deep in games and stay healthy and dominate into September, I would have no qualms about starting him in not only a playoff game, but a key playoff game. Because he really does, I mean, he is the kind of guy who always looks like he's on the cusp of becoming a real star. Not just, like, he looks within each start like a dominant pitcher. I mean, there are at least two or three innings in every start where you just think nobody's ever going to hit this guy.

And his injury history has been so depressing because it hasn't really even been like the sort of thing where he's out of mind for long periods of time. It just seems like it's been a slow bleed on his career. for long periods of time. It just seems like it's been a slow bleed on his career. And he is, what, now 24, would you say? I think he might still be 24, yeah, which is amazing.

It is amazing. Because it seems like he's been pulling this tantalizing act for a while now. Well, this is his fourth year. Yeah, he is 24. And his surgery was on July 14th of last year. So he's about 13 months out, which is kind of the typical recovery time these days. Yeah. So, yeah, I mean, Bartel Cologne was a guy who looked gassed last year. He did.

At this time, which was not surprising given how long he had been out of baseball and the way that Bartolom looks. You said gas. Yes, I did. So, yeah, it's kind of interesting. I feel like Anderson has not been a guy whose return has been discussed extensively as a huge impact on the pennant race. I don't know whether that's because of my East Coast bias or not, but it doesn't seem as if, you know, when every other team was going out and trading for starters at the deadline

that you heard a lot of, well, Oakland is getting a really good starter back. I didn't hear that a whole lot. But certainly if he is the good Brett Anderson again, that is quite an acquisition for them. And initially I kind of wrote off last night's start as the Twins in Oakland. But the Twins are actually a better offensive team than I gave them credit for, and he was just really very much in control the whole time.

And he showed the velocity and he showed good control, which is the first two things he would look for in a guy coming back from that injury. I mean, neither one of us is going to have an answer to this, but it would be interesting to see whether the, um, control is the last thing to return, uh, premise still holds true. Um, cause, uh, that's probably something that you and I both first heard, um, I don't know, maybe six or seven years ago and uh recovery time has certainly sped up since then and maybe um maybe rehabilitation has as well certainly steven strasburg didn't have any trouble

with his control when he came up at a similar point last year and now that's two people that we've talked about so it's not as though this is an exhaustive study but it would be interesting if someone did do an exhaustive study all right So let's talk about something else going on at the A's. So Stephen Drew, the A's traded for him. He has a mutual option at the end of this year, and the A's are picking up not only the rest of his contract this year, his salary this year, but also the buyout for that option, which is about $1.3 million. The option itself is for $10 million. And I just wonder who do you think is going to opt out of this option? to opt out of this option?

Well, I wrote about the Drew trade what seems like about three days ago now, but was only one day ago. And I mentioned how he, even though he's had a couple of down years, he hasn't hit much since returning from his injury, although there's maybe some bad luck involved there. But he's had trouble staying healthy and really just hasn't managed to follow up on his successful 2010 at all in a positive way. And it would seem like he would be entering free agency at exactly the wrong time for him. And yet the free agent shortstop market is so incredibly weak this coming winter that even given how much he's struggled in the last couple of years, he looks really good. I don't know if you remember the guys I mentioned as being available.

It was like Ryan Terrio and Jason Bartlett who just got released and a couple couple guys of that caliber really no one attractive Davy Cruz I think Davy Cruz might have been on it yeah assuming Johnny Peralta stays with the Tigers which seems like a safe assumption um he is basically the best available and I mean, the A's don't seem to have a great option to start at shortstop in 2013. Their top shortstop prospect is Chris Owings, who was promoted to AA in the middle of this year and is still sort of getting acclimated to that. So he's not expected to be a call-up guy until 2014. And a one-year deal for Drew would kind of work out very nicely for them and get them over that one gap year between now

and when you can say Owings might be ready. Otherwise, they'll have to make do with the sort of guys that they've made do with this year, the Cliff Penningtons and Adam Rosaleses and Eric Sogards and that sort of player. So I don't know. In any other market, coming off the couple years he's coming off of, I would say $10 million for Drew, or really I guess it's $8.65 since you have to give

him that buyout anyway. It wouldn't be a very attractive option, but this winter, if he manages to hit for the next month and a half, I guess I could envision that option being picked up. Well, if you think that it's unattractive to other markets, would you then not expect Drew to opt out? You don't think Drew will opt out and see if he can't get a bigger deal? Well, we've seen occasionally a Boris client will settle for the one-year deal when the multi-year deal he's looking for isn't out there like Edwin Jackson did, I guess, before this season.

And like, you know, Adel Dre and Carlos Pena and the one-year deal has sort of, just because it's not technically a one-year deal. It would accomplish the same thing, although I don't know if Oakland is where Stephen Drew wants to be putting up his boss stats. That's a concern. But after a year, he's only 29 now, so if he hits free agency as a 30-year-old and he has managed to stay healthy for a full season and hit pretty well despite the ballpark.

I could certainly see that paying off in a much more lucrative multi-year deal than he would get this offseason. Yeah, when Beltre got his pillow contract, it was one year and $8 million. I missed that term. I hope that makes a comeback. Oh, it will make a comeback. Yeah. So anyway, he got one year and $8 million, and he was coming off significantly, I would say, a significantly better year than Drew certainly will be, and really probably a better year even than Drew had in 2011. And really probably a better year even than Drew had in 2011.

But like you pointed out, positional scarcity matters. And Drew's age matters. And it wasn't that long ago that Stephen Drew was a 4 or 5 win player at a key position. So it'll be interesting. One thing about Stephen Drew that amuses me and means absolutely nothing is that his similar batters through age 28 on baseball reference include Barry Larkin and Nafee Perez. Yeah, one thing about Stephen Drew that amuses me is his player comment from Baseball Perspectives 2009,

which says, we'll keep projecting stardom and that's on the modest side oh yes yes well you know it's weird how certain players get paired together in your mind forever like i will never not think of cameron maybin and dexter fowler together and i will never not think of steven drew and tulewitzki together. And it was 2009, probably, spring of 2009, that you could still credibly make the case for Drew over Tulo. And if you were drafting a fantasy team, you might have picked Drew over Tulo, which is kind of amazing how baseball works. And we say it almost every day.

All right, Ben, let's wrap it up. We'll be back tomorrow to talk about two other things and hopefully they will be super awesome. Yes, talk to you then. All right.