Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 315: Discussing World Series Game Two

Episode Date: October 25, 2013

Ben and Sam critique the managerial moves of Game Two, then talk about the kind of pitchers the Red Sox hit best.

Much like a cookie, I predict the Yankee dynasty will crumble. And the results will be delicious for Red Sox fans. Good morning and welcome to episode 315 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Prospectus. I am Ben Lindberg, joined by Sam Miller. Jonah Carey starts all of his podcasts with lots to talk about, which we've never done because I don't know that either of us is ever confident that we have lots to talk about. But I feel like maybe we have lots to talk about.

Do you remember when we had a little bit of a – what was it? Somebody wanted us to sell the show. Oh, it had something to do with saying we've got a great show ahead of us. Oh, yes. Yeah, right. Same idea. We hope it will be a great show. But we don't know.

You know, one thing I've learned is that some podcasts actually record the podcast and then go back and do the intro. So they can say, we have a mediocre show for you today. Well, I don't know if they would. And I'm not saying that's what Jonah does, but sometimes people are able to forecast the show with a little more accuracy than they might otherwise. Okay, so we're talking about game two. forecast the show with a little more accuracy than, than, than they, they might otherwise. So, uh, okay. So we're talking about game two. We both just watched game two and presumably have some things to discuss about it.

Can I tell you my single favorite thing about game two, I guess? Yes. Um, I, one of the reporters who was talking to John Farrell after the game, um, asked the most reporter question ever.

It's just such a great. So, uh, I'm just going to recreate it. He, he said, John, talk about going to St.

Louis now with the series, even one, one. What did he say? Did he describe how they get on the plane and they fly for a few hours and then they arrive there? He just talked about something completely different. He just started talking about how the players are feeling good about the way they performed in game one. And then game two, they had to work on some things.

I don't remember specifically, but there was no at all to to address the non-question put some effort into your question i know that you have to you know everyone if you're writing a game story for a you know a typical outlet uh you kind of have to have those filler quotes about how people feel about how the series is going or whatever and there's pretty i mean there's no upside there really uh i mean you could unless someone like comes out and guarantees victory or says like we have no shot to win or something like there's not there's not much upside there but still frame a question yeah. Yeah, I don't mind the talk about way of framing a question. You're leaving it a little open-ended. It's not really a place where you're ever going to trick the guy into saying something he doesn't want to say anyway.

So you're basically just winding him up and letting him go. But this wasn't even a topic. There was not even any topic. Right. Okay, well, do you have a topic there was not even any topic right uh okay well do you have i mean if it had been if it had been if they'd been down to nothing i could see it being like you're you know you're basically asking like hey you know how do you keep your guys from getting too down or whatever but like this is basically the most expected thing like john talk about how nothing there's been no there's been no change in the basic understanding of the universe right talk about how it's just all basically the same yes talk about how the team that wins

four games first will win this series and we've played two john tell me what air tastes like uh so we can do better than that i hope. Did you want to start anywhere in particular? So do you think that the Red Sox are dumb? Not dumb, but I guess. Well, okay, so we talked about the, you know, the Freddy Guzman thing, right? You missed it. The Rays, you know, signed this Mexican League veteran who had no baseball skills but could run, and they sort of stashed him. They signed him just before the September 1st deadline and stashed him at like

their complex and then, you know, brought him up in September in case they needed a runner. And that's kind of common. And Quinton Berry is that for the Red Sox. They traded for him in late August. So teams do that, right? They have this designated runner that they sign late in the year. But I'm wondering whether we're going to start seeing the loophole used. And those guys, Barry and if Guzman had been on, Guzman also, get on the roster by the loophole, right? Where you put somebody who's injured on the roster and then you just immediately swap them out. So Quentin berry probably replaced like andrew bailey or something like that somebody who was on the 60-day deal um and i wonder if it's if we're going to start seeing the loophole used um regularly to just bring up all of the prospects

in a team's system and having them be the relief the bullpen because i'm wondering like why don't the red sox have alan webster in their bullpen and Henry Owens in their bullpen and Matt Barnes in their bullpen right now I mean why don't you think that those guys could dominate in on inning uh in the majors right now immediately just like you know the Cardinals are getting out of Carlos Martinez uh maybe yeah mean, I, I wasn't so sure that, that Carlos Martinez was going to dominate. Um, I mean, he, he wasn't, he wasn't all that, he wasn't all that great in the regular season. He was better. He was better than it looks. Uh, he, like if you eliminate his one start, uh, he still has a fairly high ERA, but he has like 24 strikeouts and six walks yeah as a reliever so he was very he was very good um well no home runs so like a super good uh who would you i mean who would you would you rather have one of those guys in than like craig breslow or something or is there is there someone that you think should not be getting innings who is getting innings instead of those guys?

Well, I mean, to some degree I come from, you know, maybe it looks dumb if I say yes, I'd rather have them than Breslow because, you know, Breslow had a fantastic season. But, yeah, I think I would. I mean, if they're as good as I'm imagining they would be, I mean, they are clearly better pitchers than Craig Breslow, right? I mean, they just are, right? And they're not advanced enough to start in the majors.

And if they came up and pitched in the majors, they might be Michael Walker right away, or they might be, you know be Zach Wheeler or something and have to adjust, or they might just be disasters, or they might have Tommy John surgery after their second start. There's all sorts of reasons why those guys aren't ready for the majors, but I suspect every single one of them is ready to face two guys and throw 99 seven times in October for like five times in October. So yeah, I mean, I just wonder whether,

I mean, I guess you have to invest some money in your bullpen to get to the postseason, but I just wonder whether like, instead of even really going the scrap heap route of building a bullpen, whether it might just be easier to just kind of scrape together whatever you can to make it to October

and then just call up all of your top prospects and say, here's the ball. Throw 100. Well, I mean they've given Workman a chance to do that, I guess, right? He's a person that they've done that with. They have done that. I guess I don't know that much about what Workman is as a prospect. Yeah, I mean, I don't think he's quite the same caliber as those guys, but he's a minor league starter who's been put in the bullpen

for kind of the stretch run sort of thing. It's the same template, I guess. So I don't know. And he's been good. Yeah, he's been good. So sure. Yeah, I mean, there's a long history of teams bringing up prospects who they hope will start someday.

And you start them out in the bullpen, down the stretch, or in the playoffs, and then eventually you transition them, or you fall in love with them there and you leave them there, like Trevor Rosenthal or someone like that. Yeah. And maybe that'll happen to Martinez too. So yeah. Maybe, although it didn't happen to, you know, it didn't happen to Shelby Miller.

Or Wainwright. Yeah, or Wainwright. Yeah. Or Dan Heron, right? Didn't the Cardinals do this with Dan Heron? I don't remember. He might not have been. I think I've always confused Heron and Wainwright's early years.

Like, in my head, they've become the same early years. So, yeah, I think I'm wrong about Heron. Nope, I'm not. He did relieve some in 2004. 2004, yes. He was, yeah, like he I'm not. He didn't relieve some in 2004, 2004. Yes. Uh, he was, uh, yeah, like he relieved a lot, like four and two thirds in the world series. Uh-huh. Yeah. Okay. So, uh, so sure. I mean, it's not like the Red Sox don't have anyone who, who is reliable and i mean you know they have they have wehara and they have tozawa and all these people like if if the cardinals didn't have those guys they would

i mean that's their whole bullpen they'd be pitching like john axford um they'd be they'd be closing with john axford if they didn't give those guys a shot i'd so yeah i don't know maybe possibly they left some innings on the table there I don't know there could be some sort of developmental thing where they don't think a guy has the mentality for that for whatever reason I don't know yeah yeah yeah I mean there's the unpredictability factor and if it goes wrong then you have to answer questions that you wouldn't otherwise have to answer and I'm not I'm not so much saying like with the Red So socks that i mean you know they they have a good enough bullpen probably but um i i more just wonder whether like in five years every team is going to just empty their farm system for

the postseason because because you have i mean it's september right and you would you would you might as well try it in September. Yeah, you might as well, I guess. Yeah. Sure. I mean, you could practice. You can give them a little practice. But, yeah, it just seems to me that you have –

it's probably the case that a top 100 prospect who's starting in double or triple A is better than a major league reliever, even a good major league reliever, like right now. It's probably the case. Yeah, you could make that case. Sure. Okay. even a good major leaguer like right now it's probably that it's probably the case yeah you could make that case sure um okay was that prompted by anything in particular in this game or just just a general observation just a general observation okay um anything about this game in particular that you want to i think it was i think it was actually prompted by remembering the conversation we had about whether teams should basically be bringing their prospects up to relief for two years. Like, basically, any time you have a prospect who's healthy, because his arm is, you know, it's ticking.

Yeah. And so then I, rethinking about that conversation, uh, in regards to Carlos Martinez. And, uh, so that's what led me to it anyway. Yeah, go ahead. Uh, so, so there are a few tactical moves we can talk about. I guess we got a question about a pinch running decision. We can talk about the, the, uh, Matheny Ort Ortiz not chote decision was there anything that you want to start with um no you can you can you can start okay uh so I'll just read this this question then that we got from Peter in Bloomington Indiana uh he says in the NLCS Don Mattingly pinch ran Dee Gordon for Adrian Gonzalez when he was on first base,

and the move backfired. Gordon was immediately erased on the front end of a double play. In game two of the World Series, David Freese singled with one out. Matheny did not pinch run. But after Freese advanced to second on a single, Matheny removed him for a pinch runner, Pete Cosma. Cosma stole third and scored on a fairly shallow sack fly. Matheny looks like a genius. Is it better to wait for a base runner to reach second base before considering a pinch runner?

The pinch runner is much less likely to be erased on a force play. Or if you're going to pinch run anyway, why wait until the runner gets to second? If Dee Gordon had advanced from first to third on a single and scored on a sack fly, would Mattingly's move have looked better? Or is it better to not pinch run at all? In the eighth inning of game two, David Ortiz singled. He was the tying run, and Farrell did not pinch run for him. So we've talked about pinch running before, and I explained how I'm generally against it or think it's probably an overused strategy. And in my write-up

of that Mattingly game, I did criticize him for making the move. And I think it's different from the Matheny-Kosma move in a few ways. I mean, for one thing, the Dodgers were tied already in that game, whereas the Cardinals were down by a run at the time, and that one run was very important. The other thing is that there's a very big gap between Adrian Gonzalez and Michael Young, who was his replacement both offensively and defensively. And we didn't know at the time that Michael Young, who was his replacement both offensively and defensively. And we didn't know at the time that Michael Young would get two more at-bats in that game and hit into double plays both times. But it was a tie game, and there was a decent chance that it would go to extra innings

and that Gonzalez's spot would come up at least one more time. And I feel like if you look at the stats, I was talking to Russell about this just a little while ago, and he was saying that there is obviously a short-term increase in your odds of scoring that first run when you put the pinch runner in, but that generally you give that back in the next plate appearance. And if it goes to two plate appearances beyond that then you're really giving a lot back and the move is really counterproductive and you have to

factor in the odds that those lineup spots are going to come up again so in this case not nearly the gap that there is from from gonzalez to young you're talking about taking out freeze and then putting in cosma, who then makes your— I mean, first of all, Freeze is not the hitter that Gonzalez is, and then you're improving your defense, too, because you're— I guess they moved Descalso to third and put Cosma at short, and he's a good defender despite how he looked in game one. So that's not a huge difference, really.

It's also, though, worth pointing out that the difference between Dee Gordon and Adrian Gonzalez as runners, it might—I'm actually not sure that's an exaggeration to say— it might literally be the biggest running gap between any two teammates in baseball. Yeah, it's a big gap uh so and much much bigger than cosmo and and yes that's true i mean cosmo i think what it caused me three steals this year i mean in 400 plate appearances so it's not i mean cosmo moves better but yeah he's not you know he's not like you could imagine pinch running for Cosmo if you had Dee Gordon uh yeah probably well the other thing is that Gordon didn't go um so if you're

if you're putting him in not to steal and it's possible that he had the steal sign and he just didn't didn't go I'm sure he had this deal signing. You know, you don't want to run into it. I mean, it's also worth noting that Cosmo was very nearly picked off. Yeah, right. He got a bad jump or he wasn't happy with his jump and then he went back and then he stole a few pitches later. He left before the pitcher had moved. I mean, he took off running before the pitcher had gone. I mean, he took off running before the pitcher had gone. I mean, he should have been picked off.

Yeah, so the fact that Gordon didn't go in that game got Mattingly some extra criticism because everyone was like, well, why are you putting in D. Gordon if he's not going to go? Because then at that point you're not you're not really making use of the the speed difference between him and and Gonzalez like if there's a ground ball which there was then probably both of them are going to be forced out at second despite the speed difference but I don't know I mean it might have just been that that Gordon didn't go because he didn't get a good read on the pitcher or whatever. And I guess that's something that you factor in as a manager, whether a guy is good enough to steal and get a good read off anyone.

But anyway, the fact that Matheny put Cosma in only after Freeze got to second, I don't know that that makes it any better i would i think you could probably make a case that if he was going to do it he should have just done it when freeze got on do you think that's the case uh i don't i think this is i think pinch runners are there's so many variables that it's it's virtually impossible to do the math i mean it you don't know what matheny's plan was for him i mean it to some degree uh once he gets to second and jay is on first if matheny is thinking of sending him well to some degree if he's on first and matheny sends him he picks up one base if he's on second and matheny sends him he picks up two bases because he knows the trailing runner is going to go too. So even though, you know, it might be more

likely he gets caught at third or, and even though you, you know, you lose that opportunity to have a better runner in case there's a ball in the gap at some point, um, or whatever, uh, you know, he does get sort of, he, he kind of gets twice the benefit of a stolen base, uh, having a faster lead runner. So, I i mean you don't without knowing matheny's intention there it's hard to say without knowing matheny's intention with the previous batter it's hard to say um and of course there's like a million variables when you try to actually game out the value of you know the the players so very hard to say. I wonder if there's a pinch run penalty. Like you kind of, you'd think there would be. I would think that someone has done this research

at some point, but I don't remember ever seeing it. If there's a pinch hit penalty where a hitter who comes off the bench is expected to do less well than he would if he was in the starting lineup, I wonder whether the same thing applies to pinch runners in that the guy is maybe not quite as warm or stretched out, although maybe he's also less fatigued or fresher. And then there's also the fact that if you put in a pinch runner, I feel like the defensive team is probably more vigilant or has a better inkling that that guy might go. Because if you're putting him in, you might be putting him in to send him, and so maybe they're more prepared.

They're throwing pitches that are better tailored to the catcher getting a good throw or something. I don't know. It seems like that could be something. If there's anything to that, then it would make pinch running an even worse move. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. The other thing is that makes, I guess, calculate is that the gap between, say the gap between Cosmo and Freeze, you know,

it varies based on what task you're looking to do. This is going to be hard for me to explain, but there's probably the range of performance that base runners have, say, scoring from second on a single is different than the range that base runners have going first to third on a single. that base runners have going first to third on a single. And the variation in how many runners will get to second on a wild pitch is going to be different than get to third on a wild pitch or score on a wild pitch. So they're all slightly different, and I don't actually know which favors the faster runner more.

But kind of in my head, I'm thinking about the situation. There's a runner on first with one out so you know there's a lot of different ways where speed is gonna is gonna matter but like say there's a double that maybe a fast runner scores and a slow runner only it's the third that's not a huge difference in if you're still likely to score that run say there's a single to the left, well then there's virtually no difference whether you're fast or slow. You're only going to get the second either way. If there's a single to right, there's probably not a huge difference. I would think that in most singles to right, the runner gets the third regardless.

But in this case, he didn't. In in this case there was a single to right and freeze didn't get to third and maybe cosmo would have so you could very easily see where it hurt them in that specific case but there are lots of balls where there's no difference between freeze and cosmo um you know a fly ball to center field doesn't matter um you know a wild pitch probably doesn't matter probably a wild pitch is going to get either runner to second in most cases so i don't know it's it's hard to exactly say yeah this is the sort of thing that that mitchell lichman could write 5 000 words about yeah um that's right all right uh the other the other debatable tactical move or one of the others was was Matheny's decision to leave Carlos Martinez in to face David Ortiz with two outs and a runner on first um in the eighth and

and to leave Waka in the face uh yeah you talked about that too um so I don't know if anyone asked him about about leaving him in into face Waka or leaving Waka into face Ortiz. Uh, Zachary Levine sent us some, some postgame audio Matheny explaining why he left Rosenthal in. And basically it was, it was what you'd expect that he thought he looked good. The ball was coming out of his hand well, uh, and it was a tough decision, but he just, just didn't make the move.

You said leave Rosenthal in. You meant either leave Martinez in or— Oh, sorry, leave Martinez in to—yeah. So I'm not going to say that there's no way that a manager can discern whether a pitcher is on that day or whether he, you know, I don't know. He certainly did look good. He had just struck out a couple guys. And statistically, I don't know whether that is predictive at all.

Probably not. But, you know, maybe a guy who knows him well is looking at him and saying, oh, he's locked in right now, maybe. But even so, I would not have left him in there, I don't think. Not just because Chode is on the roster and that's what you do with Randy Chode and it's the expected thing, but Chode is really good against lefties and Martinez probably not so good against lefties as as the specialist as a as a guy who throws a slider and probably has a platoon split and everything i i would not have wanted that

matchup especially because it's uh you know it's two outs in the eighth and if if if choate doesn't get Ortiz, then you can just bring Rosenthal in at that point for a four-out save. And Matheny said something about preferring not to do that and preferring to just start him in the eighth. But I don't know. We've talked about the four-out save, and you've been keeping track of the four-out save. I've got a count going. I need one from Rosenthal. Not only do I need the extra, the one, but I need a fourth closer to have done it

so that it's not just Uehara dominating the list. I need to show broad movement toward this. So I need one four out save. I wonder whether, well, I guess this is not. I wonder whether he was just like, geez, should I bring Chote in? And then he's like, wait, maybe I should bring Rosenthal in. And he couldn't decide between Chote and Rosenthal. And then it was too late.

I mean, he was staring very intently like he was thinking in his head, Chote or Rosenthal. I mean, that's the classic Chote or Rosenthal face. Rosenthal did pitch two innings in in lcs game one at the ninth and the tenth so well he did it if i'm not mistaken he did it a lot this year before he came the closer yeah i think i i counted up how many times in my recap of that game so uh he wasn't saying that he would never do it or that he can't do it but he just sort of preferred not to do it if he didn't have to. And he was comfortable with Martinez. Um, I would not have been as comfortable with Martinez. Would you have? No, no, I wouldn't. But, um, yeah, no, I wouldn't have. I'm surprised you left him in.

Uh, What else? Well, just real quick, going back to the Cosmo thing. Sorry, I should have brought this up when we were talking about it. But in a lot of ways, that was such a bizarre stolen base. I mean, like I said, Cosmo's not a particularly fast guy. He had given away the plan already. I mean, like he'd already tried to steal, and they still put it back on. And so then I thought, like, maybe Breslow's just really terrible at holding runners on.

But he's not. In his career, Breslow's got a 50% caught stealing rate when runners try to go against him. And in situations where there's a runner on second trying to steal third, I think they've tried it on him five times in his career and been caught three. And so, like, it's not a reputation thing. And it's so weird. I mean, that was so weird, right? Like, I guess that actually

goes back to the question. I mean, if it like it, if, why did Matheny not bring in Cosma for freeze? If you're going to be that aggressive, then yeah, it seems like he's already, you know, he, at that point he, he's already thinking about being super aggressive to try to scratch out this, this one run. So then so then yeah you would think you'd put in your pinch runner immediately if you're aggressive enough to do it off Breslau with a non-base stealer in this situation um then yeah you'd be aggressive enough to put in your pinch runner right away uh but yeah that was that was like a completely um well, I don't know how to, it was gutsy. It was gutsy.

Gutsy sounds too positive. Yeah. It was insane. It was a crazy, insane move. He, it wasn't, when did he actually, what was the count when he actually stole it? It was like a full count by then, wasn't it? I think it was 2-2. 2-2.

Yeah, it took a while. Okay, so I guess the Johnny Gomes spell is probably broken at this point, now that his postseason winning streak is broken. And given that he went 0-4 again, I think Farrell had already said he was planning to start Nava in game three because of the the bigger outfield in St. Louis but I wonder now whether depending on what Nava does in St. Louis I wonder whether Gomes would even play when when the series comes back to Boston because that that that move didn't look so great today.

I like hearing people talk about the Ortiz-Napoli decision and saying, like, you know, maybe Ortiz will start two games and Napoli one or something like that because I can't figure out the logic of that. Like, it's the same. It's basically the same scenario all three times. So one of them doesn't feel bad or something? Right. That's the only reason I could think to do it. It seems odd. You're envisioning that some relievers might not be available and that might change which one has more value to you in a late inning pinch hitting opportunity.

But otherwise, it's the exact same question three times in a row. The only wrong answer is ambivalence and flip-floppery. Mm-hmm. You should summarize the research that you did for the recap of game one that you wrote from the Red Sox perspective, because it's something that— Can't people just read it? People should read it. They should go read it. But it's something we brought up on the podcast when we had Zachary on, and it's still relevant. Remind me, I don't remember what I wrote about.

You wrote about the Red Sox versus control pitchers. That's right, yeah. So I looked at whether the Red Sox actually do better against control pitchers or the other way around. If control pitchers do better against the Red Sox because they neutralize a big part of their offense. And in fact, it's a huge difference looking at pitchers who are in the top 75 in baseball in zone rating, which is to say pitches are in the zone. So not strike frequency, but actually in the strike zone. If you look at those 75 pitchers, they essentially turn the Red Sox into a league average offense. And the Red Sox are much better than a league average offense. And when you add in their ballpark, they score even more.

They score 20-some percent more than the average team. But when you have people who are pounding the zone, they drop all the way down to league average, both in runs scored and peripheral stuffs. Whereas on the pitchers who nibble or who are effectively wild and live outside the zone, the Red Sox are actually even better than you would expect. They score something like roughly 25% more runs than the average team does against those pitchers. So it's totally legit. But then Wainwright, as we talked about with Zachary, what was it even with Zachary?

No, Wainwright was yesterday, right? Wainwright was yesterday, yeah. Yeah, so as we talked about yesterday, Wainwright is not actually a guy who pounds the starting zone. He's somewhat close to the median, in fact. And where he rises to the top is in getting swinging strikes on pitches that are outside the strike zone. And so, in fact, for all the talk that we heard about how the Red Sox would have to change their plan against Wainwright, in fact, Wainwright is specifically the kind of pitcher who the Red Sox attack is geared to hit, to beat. I mean, that's why this works, is when you have a pitcher who's trying to get you to chase,

and you don't chase, then you're neutralizing the best weapon. So it actually works out to be decent. Now, I mean, we're talking about small differences. Oh, kind of, I guess not really for,

uh, if, if a team actually went up against the, the Red Sox with four guys who were in the top 50 in strike zone rate, um, we actually would have to change what we think about the Red Sox offense. Yeah. I think.

And where they don't, the Cardinals don't, the Cardinals are basically the Cardinals rotation has a wild guy a control guy and two guys in the middle yeah i was going to ask you where waka fell on that spectrum i believe waka is the wild one uh-huh i believe so that's not good for him uh that's right exactly they the red sox are uh as good against him or even a little better than you would expect um and they did draw a bunch of walks they just couldn't hit him made him work yeah uh 114 pitches and four walks um so yeah that that sort of played out there um uh walk is actually walk is about average uh joe kelly joe kelly is

the wild one okay so that will be game three um all right is there we still haven't gotten to see uh an ellsbury steel attempt i keep looking forward to to seeing that me too i'm looking forward to an extended opportunity more than an attempt. Yeah, he keeps getting on base and then someone does something on the first or second pitch. Yeah. All right.

We haven't really talked about the scoring plays so much. Well, we talked about Cosma. There was a lot to talk about and we talked about a lot. Yeah, we did. All right. So that's the week.

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