Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 365: Picking Copycat Players for 2014

Episode Date: January 15, 2014

Ben and Sam discuss Delmon Young, then pick candidates to become the 2014 versions of 2013 players.

I didn't mean to ask my head. You know those future games turn off all the lights. Oh, the future games. You were by my side. Will you explain? Oh, there's no reason for those future games Good morning and welcome to episode 365 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Prospectus. I am Ben Lindberg, joined as always by Sam Miller. How are you?

Good, Ben. Can I ask you a question about baseball? Sure can. So the Orioles signed Delman Young, and Delman Young has been signed a lot in the last few years. One of the benefits of getting dropped a lot is getting signed a lot. And the reaction generally has been to note that you know well you know when you're a former number one overall prospect number one overall draft pick you're going to get more chances and you know maybe there's still some upside and teams are figuring out what the heck it's a it's a low cost move with some upside and i wonder if do you feel like that's still why Delman Young gets signed? Or is that sort of remnant of his past now completely worthless on the market?

Have teams completely moved on? And these are just actually realistic transactions for a player of his current caliber. Well, when the Phillies signed him him last year it sort of seemed like from some of the comments ruben amaro made that that he was to some extent relying on like rays era scouting reports on dumb and young like he yeah like there are some members of his front office who had been with the rays at the time time, and he said something about how he had talked to them and, like, they liked his makeup then or something like that. Or they, I don't know, something that implied

that he was still sort of factoring that in. I would have to think that now it's not really a factor. So if Delman Young were, you know, I guess if Delman Young were Del Winyoung, and he had had the last few years that he had had, do you think it's still fairly realistic that he'd get, you know, a minor? It's only a minor league contract I think given what he's done I mean

I'm sure there are worse players than Delman Young who've gotten minor league deals yeah I mean yeah and a shot I mean he's on their depth chart and you know he got you know playing time down the stretch in Tampa last year and all that.

So, I mean, minor league deal is just one part of it. But, yeah, I mean, I bring it up because I sort of think that that's no longer really part of the calculus. I bet that, if anything, it's like maybe a 4% boost in teams' minds right now, whereas I think two years ago it might have been like a 30% boost or even more. Yeah, that makes sense. So Delman Young will be 28 this year. Do you think that he's better? I guess what I'm asking is how young was Delman Young the last time he was, well, I don't know how to put this.

Is Delman Young now better than Delman Young at 19? Probably. Yeah, well, let's see. Delman Young at 19. Oh, maybe. Delman Young at 19 played in AA and AAA, and he hit 315, 354, 527 with 26 homers between those two levels. He had a 750 OPS in AAA.

I'm guessing he was a significantly better defender at that point and probably a better base runner. So it's probably close. It does not sound close based on what you're describing. To me, 19 sounds like he's got a... I mean, a 9.68 OPS in the Southern League, that's really good. That's really good. That might have led the Southern League. That's like, that's really, I mean, that's really good. Yeah. Like, that's really good. Like, that would have probably, that might have led the Southern League.

Yeah, that is very good. He didn't, I mean, once he was promoted to AAA, he hit sort of like Delman Young in AAA. Yeah. And you figure if he had been in the majors, he wouldn't have done that. But yeah, I don't know if you factor in the other things he was probably better at it's probably probably close okay delman young at 18 is that a bridge too far 322 388 538 but in the sally league so that's an extremely low level yeah 21 steals 53 walks all right the the year after he was drafted first overall um yeah i don't think i would i think i would take

i'd take 28 year old delman over 18 year old okay so let me ask you this i might have asked this on i'm i'm i spent a lot of time thinking about this question, but if Delman Young were magically 19 right now and he had the body that he has and he has the ability that he has and he plays the way that he plays, uh, but he were 19 and he were a legit 19. Everybody knew he was 19. Would he be the first overall prospect? He has current Delman Young's body? He has current Delman Young's body, yeah, and current Delman Young's. I mean, he has current Delman Young's everything. No.

Really? I mean, you're saying he's better than that guy, though. I think he's better in 2014 major league performance but but yeah if you if you have current delman's body he would be projected to have a much worse body by the time he was current delman's age and um yeah yeah that's true he would i mean he he would be i mean he's already a dh like he would be limited to dh he right he would be he would mean, he's already a DH. He would be limited to DH. He would be poor man's Jesus Montero, basically. Uh-huh.

Yeah. All right. Well, we got that out of this. Okay. And yeah, we did talk about him once and whether he would be out of baseball by 30, right? I'm still, there's still a solid chance of that. I'm still there's still a solid chance of that he

he was you know I mean it's not just that he was pretty good for the Rays last year but he went to Arizona in the two weeks that he was between teams he went to Arizona and worked on his

swing mechanics and reportedly fixed some things. I mean, I know how you feel about swing fixes, but he then came to the Rays and he was basically an average DH, maybe a little bit better. In fact, he was a little bit better. He was a little bit better than an average DH. Someone should sign him to a minor league deal. Yeah. All right. someone should sign him to a minor league deal yeah all right um okay so my topic for today uh was suggested by paul sporer um and it's a good suggestion and it's sort of difficult and i

i prepared a little bit you as is your way are just going to wing it uh in the past when i have prepared for things and you have winged it, I think you have usually come out ahead in the end. So the topic is picking 2014 players who will replicate 2013 player seasons. So we're looking at notable seasons that certain players had in 2013 and saying that this player that we are picking is going to have a season like that.

So like who will be this year's Robert Andino? Yes, that is not one of my, one of my topics, one of my categories, but yes, that, that is the idea. Who will be this year's Quentin Barry? Right. So I have like 10 categories here. 10 is too many. Well, that's how many I have. Do you want to hear the categories before we start or do you want each one to be a surprise?

I like surprises, but I think you should self-edit. Seven sounds right. All right. Well, there are a few that I like surprises, but I think you should self-edit. Seven sounds right. All right. Well, there are a few that I don't have great answers for. So maybe as we go, unless I come up with great answers for them, I will just delete them. Who will be this year's Kirk Neuenheis? So the first one is 2014's Josh Donaldson. so this would be a player who once was a prospect uh maybe was drafted high or was on some top 100 list or something and then just kind of faded into obscurity and bounced around a bit and no one really expects him to fulfill his prospect

promise all of a sudden this year. But we are picking him to do that nonetheless. So you're saying who will be this year's 2012 Chase Hedley? Sure, yeah. Maybe, I don't know. Hedley might have been even too good to qualify. Okay, I have mine. Gosh, that was fast uh okay so mine i am i'm gonna go with matt gamel uh no nope no uh not i mean i don't believe in matt gamel um but i i wouldn't have

believed in josh donaldson probably before this year. Basically, he is going to be Josh Donaldson's age and he was a top prospect and that's about the only reason. I'm not sure. One of the tricky things about these is it's not clear who qualifies. Yes. So I guess, like, for instance, my first answer would be, but I don't know if he qualifies, but my first answer would be Cameron Mabin. Does he qualify? I don't know.

I guess, I mean, he had one full season where he was, like, an above- above average player in the majors, right? Yeah, basically. Which is something that Donaldson didn't do. Right. Donaldson didn't have 466 games. Right. I'm thinking, yeah, I'm thinking more obscure. I don't know, just someone who hasn't really ever been good in the majors um like i was thinking about someone like travis snyder for instance um but even he has had full

seasons and or well i guess he hasn't really had a full season he's had a lot of partial seasons so travis snyder's not a terrible choice no i might have picked travis snyder last year actually yeah for this yeah um and does wilson ramos not count uh wilson ramos i mean uh i don't know he's been pretty good hasn't he been pretty good yeah he has been that's what I'm saying it's hard to know who qualifies

alright I'll say Scott Sizemore okay Scott Sizemore is a fine choice for this 2014 Scott Casimir so this is a person who's coming back from did we talk about him yesterday by any chance yeah you know it the answer is very bonds uh yeah so this is this is pitcher who's or player who's been out of baseball uh or has been playing in sub obscure baseball and has really had no success and has maybe had some injuries and everyone has written him off uh who is who's your guy

mark molder right okay i figured you would go with molder uh i think i'm gonna go with chin ming wong okay you could there are a few candidates here. Paul Chris Young is still playing. Yeah, sure. You could go with him. You could go with like Dontrell Willis again is going to have a job. You could go with Tomo Oka, the new knuckleballer. Oh, yeah, that's a good one. Yeah, I would like that one.

I guess you could go for like Raphael Fercal maybe. He hasn't been out of baseball long enough. But okay, Mulder and Wong um 2014 Francisco Liriano uh so this is a player who has been in the majors and has been playing regularly and has been playing poorly uh and maybe he's going to have a change of scenery or maybe he's just suddenly going to get back to being a good player again. All right. So go ahead.

So I think my pick is Phil Hughes, who was probably similarly terrible last season to how terrible Liriano had been. If you look at Hughes' 2011 to 13 and Liriano's, I don't know, 2011 and 12 or whatever it is, it would be pretty similar. Former guys with good stuff who were supposed to be good and kind of were good for a little while and then were terrible for a while. And change of scenery.

And I think Hughes will be good again. All right. BJ Upton doesn't count, I guess. I don't know. I guess that could count. It's only one season, but I can give it to you. Mark Teixeira doesn't count? No.

This is like, well, I don't know. I'm thinking less missed the whole season due to injury and more played but was bad uh all right I'll say Mike Morse I don't have any conviction behind that but I'll say Mike Morse okay Chris Young doesn't count I assume uh short Chris Young not tall Chris Young right yeah Chris Young is close I Yeah, Chris Young is close. I'll take Chris Young. Okay. He's got a change of scenery.

Yes, he does. All right. Okay, the 2014 Matt Harvey. So this is a pitcher, or I guess any player, who came up for a while and was good toward the end of the season and is just going to be dominant for all of 2014 it has to be specifically that like he has to have specifically been up for i think half of he has to he has to have uh he has to have been i mean i was thinking of doing like a michael waka award like just a guy who kind of blew through the minors and was awesome immediately. If you have someone like that, I guess.

Garrett Cole. How is Garrett Cole not Matt Harvey? He pitched too much, I think. He didn't pitch more than Matt Harvey. I mean, maybe slightly. I think he pitched twice as much as Matt Harvey Matt Harvey came up in like July I think he pitched like 50 innings or something

Matt Harvey pitched Matt Harvey pitched 59 Okay And Cole pitched 117 Plus playoffs Goodness gracious really

That is too much Yeah 117. Oh, did he really? Plus playoffs. Goodness gracious, really? Yeah. That is too much. Yeah. Well, I think I'll go with Danny Salazar. He pitched seven fewer innings than Harvey did in 2012 and was really good, and I expect that he'll just continue to do that I mean

this is too narrow definition I mean so like I can get some more guys I mean so like Waka would count or like Waka through five mornings than Harvey so does he not count? I guess Waka counts. I'll say Carlos Martinez

Okay I almost went with Does he not count? Yeah, I guess Walker counts. I'll say Carlos Martinez. Okay. I almost went with Jordano Ventura. Oh, yeah, that's a better one. Yeah. Yeah. You want to switch? I do.

Okay. I was thinking of Tyrone Walker also. That's a better one too. I'm going to switch. I'm going to take Walker Okay So you switched twice 2014 Kevin Gregg Award This is a guy who

Maybe he was a closer at some point Maybe he was just a generic reliever Who had not been closing Who didn't seem like a guy Who would ever be pitching in the ninth inning again, and then came back to be a team's primary closer for most of the year and get 30 saves or however you wanted to define it. I'm going to go with Chad Qualls. Too easy.

Chad Qualls, who is also in his mid-thirties and on a team that doesn't really have a closer it's probably it's probably too good he was better than Greg was going into last year but was also pretty bad for a few years before that

or at least one year I'll say David Arts, Matt. Okay, that's a good one. Okay, how about a 2014 match? How are we deciding who wins? Well, I mean, this isn't really a draft so much, so it's not necessarily a not there's not necessarily a winner although i guess i recall your objection to this idea at first being that it was not clear enough who would win

was that or were we having a different conversation yeah that might have been your objection i don't know um but yeah it's not really a draft, although we could look back and see who was closer or who had more correct picks or picks that came kind of close. But I don't know. It's just a predictions episode. So next one is the 2014 Max Scherzer award. So this would be someone who has been good, has been maybe very good, but seems like he could be even better and then takes that

step to become better and is great. Alright. Yeah, I know who Max Scherzer is. So I think for my Max Scherzer is. So I think for my Max Scherzer, I think, I think I'll go with,

I think I'll go with Homer Bailey. That's fine. Good. Yeah. Okay. Well, I'm going, I mean,

again, it's like, well, I mean, I would rather say like, like, like you Darvish, right? You couldn't, could going I mean again it's like well I mean I would rather say like Like Yu Darvish right Couldn't could I mean if I think Yu Darvish Is going to improve could I say him or is he

Does that not count It doesn't count right If you're the Cy Young runner up I don't know that you That you can I think you're already great He could get better but He was as good as Scherzer, basically. So I'll say Madison Bumgarner.

Ah, good one. Okay. I like Chris Tillman for this category. I don't know if he's been good enough to qualify. Oh, you know who I like for this category, but he's not my pick? Madison Bumgarner is my pick. Chris Medlin. I just feel like Chris Medlin is...

You love Chris Medlin. ...so underrated right now. It's the weirdest thing to me to see. Okay. 2014 Chris Sale Award, but Chris Sale is ineligible. This would be a player who is really, really good for a terrible team.

Chris Sale could repeat, but he's not eligible so i just have to pick a good player on a bad team yes okay i'm gonna go with uh dexter fowler i'm confused you're out of all the good of all the players on all the bad teams, you're saying Dexter Fowler is going to be the most distinguished? Yeah. All right, I'll go with Jose Fernandez. Seems like a better pick. Yeah, this is a pretty bad category. All right, pretend I didn't bring up that one.

Okay. And then the 2014 Victor Martinez or John Wacky, the guy who just missed a year due to injury and comes back strong. I'm going to go with Corey Hart. That's a good one. I think from doing the book, there's only three guys who missed the entire season and are expected to, and one of them is Raphael for call.

I'm not picking him. So I don't know. Can I say, I don't know. I mean, he didn't miss a whole season. He didn't even miss a half a season. So I guess I can't say him, but he hurt himself very badly. I was thinking Tim Hudson maybe. I mean, I feel like at this point, I basically am stuck with Derek Jeter.

Well, there's Colby Lewis. Well, yeah, not him. Okay. Who else? Who else missed a lot of time? Who had Tommy John? Give me a Tommy John. Matt Harrison missed almost all the year.

Almost the whole year. I guess you could go with a Yankee if you want. You can go with Teixeira or someone. Can I go with Granderson? Sure. I don't even really want to do that alright oh no I can't say Albert Pujols

can I say Albert Pujols he kind of played a lot what if I make something what if I say very specifically that I think he'll get two first place MVP votes okay alright sure Albert Pujols say very specifically that I think he'll get two first place MVP votes. Okay. All right.

Sure. Alfred Pujols. And then I think there was, all right, how about the Marlon Bird award? Just like a generic veteran who looks like he's on the downside, isn't really that good, but comes out of nowhere, has a really valuable season. Okay. I'm thinking. Yeah.

Oh, you don't have one? I don't have a solid answer for this. I have an okay answer for this. Okay. What is it? Ryan Ludwig. Yeah. That seems fine. I saw him. I thought about him for an earlier category. I don't remember what it was. I'll say Ryan Domet. Okay. Any of 200 names would be fine in this category. And finally, and I don't think I have a good answer for this one either, the BJ Upton Award.

BJ Upton. Pretty sure. I don't think he can win twice. Nobody is going to be more like BJ Upton this year. Well, that's true. Does it have to be somebody who changed teams? Nope, nope. This is just a, it's a collapse disappointment award.

Oh, okay. And I don't, I don't have a great answer for this one. We're almost at that time of year when every, every radio hit or podcast appearances is who are your breakout candidates and who are your decline candidates? Uh, I always like, I agonize over that and I never have any good ones and I, I try to make a word document or something that I keep around and just pull up when I have to do one of those so I can read from it

but I haven't made my word document yet you're just going to pick a name at random basically right uh yeah well I don't know if it's like a I feel like if it's a pitcher or something who maybe had

declining peripherals but still had a decent ERA or threw less hard or something but was still kind of effective, maybe that would qualify for this category. And it could actually be based on something. I mean, I remember you not liking the BJ Upton contract when we talked about it, but you probably didn't think that he was going to be that bad. Well, you just didn't ask. No, I should have.

I'll say Jeff Samarja. Hmm. Okay. That's a good one um i will say i'll say doug fister i'll say dombrowski was right and we were all wrong interesting yeah i i think doug fister is going to be tremendous. Me too. Okay. I think we did 10 categories. Okay. So that is the show for today.

We'll be back tomorrow. Please send us some emails. We've been getting some good ones this week, but we would welcome some more at podcast at baseballperspectives.com, and we'll be back then.