Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 433: The Career Compensation Competition

Episode Date: April 22, 2014

Ben and Sam attempt to guess the career earnings of a number of baseball players picked by guest Matt Trueblood.

Good morning, and welcome to episode 433 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Perspectus, presented by the BaseballReference.com Play Index. I'm Ben Lindberg. My co-host Sam Miller is still on vacation, but through the wonders of technology, you will hear him today, as he and I recorded the following episode before he left and stashed it away for use during his absence. Sam will be back really and truly today, just in time for the weekly listener email show,

so please send your questions to podcast at baseballperspectives.com, and he and I will answer them this evening. Thanks for listening. I don't know if I trust you As you try to shoot me down Before I walk on the water Put the money down, down, down Put the money down

I'm Sam Miller with Ben Lindberg and we're joined today by Matt Trueblood. Hi, Matt. Hi there. Matt is not here to talk about his writing, so I will briefly talk about his writing so that you know who Matt is. Matt is a writer who writes, who blogs at Arm Side Run, the blog Arm Side Run. And he writes wonderfully about baseball, about serious analysis, and also about sometimes effectively wild type discussions.

And if you like baseball perspectives, you'll like his writing. He's also on Twitter at arm underscore side underscore run. And he also is one of our two or three best, I would say, emailers for this show. And he's here today because he's going to give Ben and I a test. Ben and I first thought of this idea a couple hundred episodes ago, but never really got to it. So finally we're going to get to it, and Matt has put the test together and he's going to administer it, and I guess he'll also judge it. So Matt, why don't you explain what we're going to do?

Okay, so you said 11 names, so I've got 11 names here, and we're going to go through. I'll give you guys the player and some information if you want it, like especially years that they played. And you're each going to try to guess how much they made during their career. Total earnings per baseball reference. And Ben, we will hear you typing, so don't do it, okay? Just don't do it. Don't try to quietly type. Don't try to really like one letter at a time real slow. Just go with it.

Embrace the wave. I've mastered the art of holding my keyboard far away from the microphone and tapping at the keys. But this is all a surprise to me, this topic and this competition. So I will do my best. Excellent. And, yeah, judging is I'm just going to take whichever one you use closer unless I like one of your answers for style reasons. All right.

Yeah. I guess probably then to make it so that whoever guesses first doesn't have a huge advantage Ben, I guess we'll both try to come up with an answer and then be on the honor system that we're not going to do the $1 over thing if we get second but you know probably we both will we probably will both cheat relentlessly all right well these are primarily pretty contemporary players most of the salary information before the mid 80s is not that reliable and the stuff that is is not that interesting because it's the only people that we know are how much mickey mantle made and that was 50 years ago i don't know so these are mostly contemporary players but there's only one active

guy on the list oh interesting okay yeah should we start. Okay, the first guy, actually, Monday is his 44th birthday, Steve Avery. Oh, my gosh. This is already tough. Play along at home, by the way, everybody. But don't cheat. Even though we can't hear you typing, don't cheat. It's more fun if you don't cheat. So Steve Avery, left-handed phenom for the Atlanta Braves,

one of the most famously injured young star pitchers. And I would say given the timing of his flameout, probably an inspiration for Tin Stap, don't you think? Yeah, could be. Okay, so we're just getting name, we're not getting any additional details, or are we? Yeah, I guess that's up to Matt. This is Matt's

to run, so why don't you tell us? I'm fine getting no extra details. If you think there are details that are more fun, I'm fine getting details. I'm also fine just saying everything I know about the player, because it will usually only take four seconds. Yeah, it's up to you guys what you want.

I mean, in Avery's case, he played from 1990 to 2003. He was the number three overall pick in the draft. These are really the only things that you need to know. When did he play? What kind of pedigree did he have? And then the more you know about his career, the better picture you'll have. Are we counting signing bonus here because i expect to be accurate down to the

million dollar level so that will make a difference we uh i'm only going with what's on their br page okay should we should we remove three percent for management fees but i'm sitting here with a piece of notebook paper so i stumbled on avery on like a 2002 roster the other day and fell out of my chair i was completely shocked that he played that long i was surprised when you said 2003 i would have guessed that he was he was he was out of baseball actually from night well 2000 01 and 02 didn't pitch in the major leagues pitched at every level of the brave system in 2000 was completely out of baseball for two years and then pitched for the 03 tigers so only kind of in the major leagues

119 lost tigers yes interesting that they would say so uh he moldered, basically. He had a molder career. Yes. Without quite the achievement early on. So I'm going to say that I have an answer right now. Okay, me too. All right. I'm going to say $ 16.2 million my answer was 9 million okay sam's a lot closer 21 million 625 000 all right all right so uh all right we'll just move to the next one how much what was this do you do you by chance have uh do you know his peak do you have that or do you just have his total i don't have it in front of me his peak was in the

like four million dollar range now i hear ben typing so no that's me i'm doing post post typing he uh looks like it looks like around the time he hit free agency it looks like he signed uh he might have been extended but it looks like he signed about a four-year, $16 million deal, and that's his big payoff. He made $4.8 million as a 27-year-old with Boston, of all teams. I imagine that was salary dump by then. I was banking on his success coming early enough that he had already faltered by the time he would be getting paid. You're kind of right. He got hurt in September of 93,

right before he was really ready to start making money. Just not hurt enough that he didn't. He kept pitching more than most guys who get hurt now. He just wasn't ever the same. Basically an average pitcher for the next three years, but always missed five to ten starts, so kind of a hurt or good guy until he went to Boston. He actually signed as a free agent with Boston,

and that was pretty much the end. He had a 6.4 ERA with them. Got moved to the bullpen. All right. Who's next? Good one. The next one is actually related, and I saw the Mulder comp too,

but I passed it up for Dontrell Willis. So Dontrell, let's see. Dontrell won a Cy Young Award in 2006, I think, and was a rookie in 2003. So just about, I mean, he was very good when he was in a position to make money. And as I recall, was a salary dump when he was involved in the tigers trade so uh uh so probably had at least signed one extension at that point um and still pitching right he's with the giants triple a club right now and it's added to the active roster oh interesting he pitched one third of an inning in uh in in the pcl which I happened to see yesterday and fell out of my chair. All right. So this is his 12th year, at least his 12th year since he

appeared. And I would imagine almost all of his earnings are in about a four or five year period. year period uh so i have a uh i have a number in mind me too i could be way off but all right uh you go first 42 million 51.5 ben wins 40 and well basically 40.7 million you get both you get both showcases. That was very close. So do we know when he got his extension or what the terms of it were? I'm scared to touch my keyboard because I'll be accused of something. I remember this wrong, actually. Right after the trade to the Tigers, so he was not yet a salary dump.

Right after the trade, he signed a three-year $29 million extension with the Tigers. So they actually gave him almost all of his earnings right around the time that he never pitched well again. Interesting. Okay. Who's up next? Tigers sure lost that deal, huh? Yeah. The next guy is Bob Horner. Because I thought the first two were probably too easy for you.

So Bob Horner. The first overall pick in the 1978 draft and played in the major leagues that season. Didn't ever see the minors. Until 1988, though. Wow. So Horner was like super duper good. Right. He was one of those guys who didn't stick to the early trajectory.

Yeah, exactly. Hall of Fame trajectory for his first few years, couple years, and then was at least kind of an average player during his free agent years. So I would imagine he'd get paid, but I don't know what those guys made at that point. It was post-free agency. So I would guess that he would have been making like between, I guess I would say between.

You're going to give away your, you're going to give away your. I don't know. So if I'm telling you something, I'm telling you probably not. It's going to influence my guess. I would probably guess that at most he was making $3 million a year and at least $800 a year during those peak years. So I'm going to say that I have an answer. Yeah, me too. $7.8 million. I'm going to say that I have an answer. Yeah, me too. 7.8 million.

I'm going under that. I'm going to say 4.5. Sam's closer. It's, again, basically 6.7 or 6.8 million. But this one, you both ended up with about the right answer, but it's kind of a trick question. I put him in there because Bob Horner was screwed over by collusion. Tim Raines and Andre Dawson get the headlines,

but Horner was actually a going-to-be 29-year-old free agent coming off two 27-homer seasons. Yeah. Japan was it? Yep. And he only got back for one year in 88 and then was never around thereafter. That's a good one. 4.3 war at age 22.

He had nine more by the end of age 22, which, you know, as we know from an article I wrote a couple years ago, would have put him on a better than 50% chance of the Hall of Fame at that point. Yep. All right. Good one. from an article I wrote a couple years ago, would have put him on a better than 50% chance of the Hall of Fame at that point. Yeah. All right. Good one. Okay. Next guy is another, went straight to the major leagues out of college, John Olerud. Okay.

One of my favorites, but I have not committed his salaries to memory. 90 was it that he came out? 89. 89, okay. And played until 2008? 2007? 2006? 2005, just keep

counting down. Keep going down. Alright. Terribly underrated. Definite star. uh huh okay terribly terribly underrated yeah definite star uh but i just tell you guys my favorite thing that i know about john olerud sure i saw this in an article from 1993 the other day after that 89 season where they brought him straight to the major leagues instead of putting him in the minors at all they sent him to to Instrux as a pitcher. Yeah. I saw you tweeted that, and I was in awe. Somebody needs to write about that.

I'll look after, but do you know, I guess Instrux doesn't keep stats. They don't keep stats. No, I looked. There's got to be a scouting report out there. Maybe I'm going to check the Diamond, what is it, the Diamond Mine archives? Is that what it is, Ben?

Yeah, the Hall of Fame scouting stuff, yeah. See if there is one. This is tough because I feel like he probably didn't get paid what he was worth. It's crazy, too, that he was going to be either a pitcher or the one position on the field where you don't have to throw any better than Ryan Howard does. Right. All right. the one position on the field where you don't have to throw any better than ryan howard does right um uh all right this is this is a tough one because this is going to be a big number yeah um and so free agency around 96 uh probably hit free agency twice during his peak earning years what was his 390 something average year that was 9 93 he had right 93 and then he had another one with the mets um later but uh okay uh man all right i'm not confident in this one

but i i can't figure out a way to do this math uh i'm gonna okay so i'm to say that he signed a 16-year deal, a 15 million deal, a 70 million deal, and an 18 million deal. So I'm going to say 102. I was going to go well under that, but maybe I'm wrong. I don't know. I was going to go with like 73. Ben is much closer. 68.2, let's say. Yeah, he was a little too early, I think, for the $100 million payday.

He was just so good with Seattle, though, wasn't he, too? I mean, he was like a—I feel like I remember him being like a five-win player with Seattle year in, year out. And that was just after the kind of winter of A-Rod. So I was thinking he might have cashed in at that point. I was imagining that he had signed like a four-year deal in the mid-'90 and like a five-year deal in the early 2000s but he didn't it looks like he signed his last big deal in 2000 which uh was before the winter of a rod so maybe one year early yeah uh all right okay next one is two two yes you are uh the next one is... 2-2. Yes, you are. The next one is not a player of similar profile.

Alex Sanchez, the first player ever suspended for EEDs. Yes. And he leads thereafter. The go-to example when someone says that someone is a steroid user because he's big and bulky, and then someone will inevitably say, but Alex Sanchez also took steroids, and look at him. He is to steroids what Nafee is to amphetamines. Alex Sanchez, he hit 300 once, I think.

296th career hitter. Yeah. So he hit 300 once, once being the time he was born. Right. That one time he lived on this earth, he hit 300. Give me his, can we get his career years? Yeah. Yeah. 2001 to 05.

Whoa, much, much, much shorter than I thought. Right? I think he would have stuck around as like a fourth outfielder, pinch runner type for a while. I think it was the stigma, but it's ridiculous. My guess, though, is... Go ahead. I think he did get to go to free agency, though, because I would imagine he was a non-tender guy. Like, I'm guessing that the Giants probably signed him as a free agent, right?

We don't know that, but that's my guess. I'm not actually sure. All I can tell you for sure and my favorite thing about him is that he played for the 2002 brewers and the 2003 tigers that it was like 120 well 225 losses that he lived through in two seasons all right i've 3.2 yeah it's gonna say three i guess ben wins it was 1.243 million wow so he made the minimum he never didn't make the minimum basically basically yeah i mean the shade over but ben wins in a landslide i should have said one dollar This is nice, this is the rare competition that we do where we don't have to

wait a decade to find out who won Alright, the next guy is Raul Abanez The anti-Sanchez The guy that people bring up as an example of what steroids do even though he didn't do them. Right. Or at least we don't know that he did.

Okay. What is, do we know what Raul Paneas is making now? One or two million. Yeah. Okay. And then he got, what, he got three and 37 from Amaro, I think? Yeah, that sounds right yeah and so he started in what mid 90s

96 he was a rookie right okay uh all right okay i think i'm ready um i'm i'm gonna say all right am i guessing this time i'm guessing this time first but i don't have one yet okay uh uh okay i have one okay i'm gonna say 55 49 66.3, I'm horrible at this. You might catch up by the end. I missed a payday for him. I wonder when he got that payday. Yeah, I don't have it in front of me either.

He made, well, yeah, it was 36 from the Phillies, and then he basically hasn't made anything since. But, you know, he was a steady earner for the KC Seattle years. I guess in my mind he got good too late for that. But 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 7. So just basically a reliable earner. Like the guy who drove the truck in Rounders. All right, what are we up to?

Number six? Number seven is coming here. Rick Ankeel. Okay. Oh, wow. I do know it's going to be depressing. So I'm trying to think if he ever really got a big deal. I mean, his pitching career was over by the time he would have, and then he came back,

and no one would have given him a big commitment until he proved himself, but then didn't really hang on all that long once he had. So, all right. I've got an answer okay me too i'm gonna say 8.1 oh i was i was gonna say eight i don't want to say eight your honor system ben i know i don't want to look like i'm trying to take the under but i really was eight all right well that's that's fine it didn't work out for you anyway but okay 12.2 million i vaguely recall him signing like a one year five million dollar deal probably he didn't but like i vaguely recall that i think the thing that benefited him was that all those years that he was wandering in the wilderness or at least a lot of them i think he was racking up service time

or maybe he wasn't because he wasn wasn't injured. I might be wrong. He played a lot longer than I thought he did, too. He never made $5 million in a year. So I'm wrong about every single thing I said except the number. Of which I was only very, very, very, very, very narrowly correct. Most he ever made was $2.8 in a year. It looks like he... Yeah, it doesn't look like he ever made was 2.8 in a year. He signed, it looks like he, yeah, it doesn't look like he ever signed a,

he might have signed two years, three million with the Nationals, maybe. But, yeah, 2.8 is the most he ever made. All right. Who's next? Joe Carter. Are we 3-3, by the way, or 3-4? Someone must have four, right? If that was seven. Yeah, someone has four, and it's Ben.

It's 4-3 Ben. Okay. Joe Carter. Well, the money lies in the RBIs, so I've got to say $5 billion. He was actually the highest paid player in baseball in 93 when he hit that World Series winning homer. Really? Yeah, he's like the anti-all rude probably he's like unperpetually overrated um and a teammate of all roots um okay it's hard to recalibrate my expectations of salaries because they changed

so dramatically in such a short time you know that's what the trick with some of these guys is. He played from 83 to 98, if that helps. Yeah, when I did the thing on Uniesky-Bettencourt and the most sub-replacement seasons in eight years or whatever, Joe Carter was number two, and it was kind of right during his prime. He was making all-star teams. Right. 83 to 98, you said okay okay that's a long

career all right uh i have a number. 32? 27. 47.3. Wow. Big money. I honestly went with that because I think that's ridiculous, but he did it.

RBIs. 100 RBI guy. Yeah. Yeah. Interesting. Oh, yo, you know what? I screwed up. RBI's, 100 RBI guy yeah interesting oh yo you know what I screwed up my logic was flawed because

I was thinking that the year that he was going to be the highest paid I nailed that but then I kind of imagined that his salary would be parabolic because he got worse but of course salaries were going up so fast that obviously they weren't parabolic. So he actually made more later in his career when he was just dreadful, dreadful,

three straight years sub-replacement. He was making more than when he was the highest paid player in baseball a couple years earlier. All right, so we have two left, so Sam is playing for the tie now. I've got to wait. No, it's three to five we've got three left yes darn okay okay trying to lock it up early

alright did you know that nobody has ever come from a five to three deficit in a baseball salary prediction contest it's never been done. So history might be made. Sample size of zero so far.

We should check with the Suspettus BBQ guys. Actually have done that already. This is probably my favorite player when I was a kid who was not on the team that I cheered for. Jason Kendall. Oh, okay. So he did get that big deal with the Pirates, right? Yeah, he did.

I don't remember how big. I want to say that I do, but of course I don't. The number I have is wrong. It was like the biggest deal the Pirates had ever given out, I think, maybe. Okay. I think, maybe. Okay. I have a number. Alright. Okay, I have a number.

67. 55. Sam wins 83.4. Wow. I want to say that it was 6 and 61 or something like that was what his deal was, is what I want to say that it was 6 and 61 or something like that was what his deal was, is what I want to say. That sounds kind of right. 6 and 60.

Nice. I vaguely thought that there was one number that was not round, but I was wrong. You thought that was basically his entire career earnings then i did i did think that okay so anyway four five all right um kurt schilling hmm uh okay so what are his years? Can you give us yours? 1990 to 08. Okay. All right.

I'm ready. I'm ready. Okay. I'm going with 115. 109. Ben pretty much nailed it, 114.1 million. All right. Impressive. Yeah, that's pretty solid.

This is really good for your brain. I know. I just locked up the victory. You did. I might just take this next one off. Just take my victory lap. Prepare for the playoffs, get your rotation lined up. Right.

Give my guys a day off. Okay, who's our finale? Gary Sheffield. Okay. Okay. Better earlier than Schilling and represented himself did they both represent themselves

I think they did at one point I went with them because they're so famously savvy that I wanted to see how much they leveraged that you can tell Sheffield was good at hyping himself savvy that I wanted to see how much they leveraged that. You can tell Sheffield was good at hyping himself because he was the highest paid player in baseball one year while playing for the Florida Marlins.

Yeah, I mean, he was getting paid really early, but of course back then being paid was like getting Colin Cowgill money. I'm going to say considerably higher, though. I'm going to say 148. Yeah, I was going to say 150. 168. All right. You should have sat it out just to be more polite.

Yeah, this is like stealing a base up six or something. All right. Well, this was fun. This has never been done before and will never be done again. Yeah, that was good. Well selected. Yeah. Interesting choices.

Yeah. Thank you. All right. You want to read the promo, Ben? Please support our sponsor, Baseball Reference, and go to baseballreference.com, subscribe to the Play Index, use the coupon code BP to get the discounted price of $30 on a one-year subscription. And please send email questions to podcast at baseballperspectives.com.

We'll be back with a new show tomorrow. Just imagine this podcast if it were still 12 minutes an episode. Don't you think that would be compact and enjoyable? this podcast if it were still 12 minutes an episode don't you think that'd be compact and enjoyable it it would but would ben have ever learned to change the inflection of his voice at all probably not i have no idea what we're doing here and i'm scared i assumed when sam emailed to say you were running a little late that you were scrambling to put together a spreadsheet yeah i didn't i didn't tell him because i knew he would cheat oh no this is going to be one of those things where i have to think and then uh oh my god okay well i i assumed he would have prepared you somewhat

see now i'm i'm worried you're gonna give us a lot of dead air definitely this is awful