Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 445: Jay Jaffe on Team Entropy and the AL East

Episode Date: May 8, 2014

Ben and Sam discuss the deadlocked American League East with Sports Illustrated author Jay Jaffe.

You know my only request is that we really should be together more before the end of the race. Ooh, before the end of the race. Yeah, before the end of the race. Ooh, before the end of the race. Yeah, before the end of the race. Good morning and welcome to episode 445 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Perspectives presented by the BaseballReference.com Play Index. I am Ben Lindberg, joined as always by Sam Miller. Today we are going to be talking about one of the tight divisions in baseball. So far there are two really. Both of the eastern divisions in baseball. So far, there are two, really. Both of

the Eastern divisions so far this year are extremely close. Right now, the Yankees are still playing as we are recording this and are trouncing the Angels soundly early in that game. So it looks like if that score holds up, the Yankees and the Orioles will be tied for first in the AL East. All the other games are finished for the night, and there's only a three-and-a-half game spread right now between first and last place in the AL East. So we wanted to bring on the creator of Team Entropy, a man who likes to see close races and ties, Jay Jaffe.

Hey, Jay, how are you? Hey, I'm pretty good good good to be back we are obviously a long way before we can start imagining five-way tie scenarios that we always enjoy doing when the season gets a little later but is this our best chance for this year is the al east the best chance to give us one of those crazy tie breakbreak scenarios? I don't know if it is. I mean, coming into the season, I had three teams coming out of this division for the playoffs with the Red Sox winning it and the Rays and Yankees as the wild card.

With Matt Moore going down and Alex Cobb hitting the sidelines for a while and the Rays really having a fair amount of trouble on both sides of the ball, I'm kind of convinced that they're not going to stick around in this race. They're 15 and 19 right now. They're only 10 runs in the red, but just not seeing the type of team that I usually see from them, that we usually see from them, and really not the pitching depth there. They're allowing more runs than the

league average uh right now four and more than four and a half a game i can't remember the last time they were that bad and that's at a pitcher's park so um you know maybe they could somehow swing a deal or come up with somebody who who uh you know is better than than uh eric bedard or whoever at the back of their rotation but um i'm not really a believer right now, and I was just a few weeks ago, but the injuries have changed my mind on them. Can you imagine it coming together maybe like sort of a second half run if Helixson comes back and Alex Cobb should be back by the end of the month and there's still bullpen issues that I don't know how they would fix.

And there's still bullpen issues that I don't know how they would fix. Yeah, I mean, sure, I can imagine it because the Rays are a very resourceful organization. But, you know, I kind of felt like they took some half measures in building this year's team anyway that, you know, I was putting some faith in there, solving. Like, I'm not a, you know, you guys know I'm not a big believer in James Loney. Obviously, he had a good year, a good part of a year last year he's off to a very good start this year and he's been killing the yankees when he's played them so it's kind of like in your face jaffe every time i'm watching him um you know i david de jesus uh you know in a in a in regular duty in the outfield and dh that's that's something I wasn't really much of a believer in. You know, I'm not the hugest Hellickson fan in the first place. His performances had been, you know, trending backwards for a while.

Eric Bedard seems to control the Yankees, but just about nobody else. I had forgotten that he shut them down towards the end of last season when he was in Astro too and he just absolutely flummoxed them on Sunday. I never count the Rays out but I'm counting them out. The other thing too is that the Rays probably... The Rays don't necessarily play on a six month schedule. If they're five and a half out in July, you could very easily see them trading some pieces off, right? I mean, they're going to be sensible about this, but that lessens the chance of a final two-month miracle that some of the other teams might have a chance at.

Yeah, and we've been bracing for the possibility that they could trade David Price. He's still got a year plus on his deal before he reaches free agency, but as the clock ticks, he's losing value every day. If he's not going to get you to a playoff spot, you're better off getting more for him, say, by the trade deadline than waiting until the winter when you're really only going to get a lesson returned because he's only got one year left. So does the fact that all of these teams are within a few games of 500 suggest to you that this division as a whole is weaker than we thought it would be

or that we've become accustomed to having it be? Or is it a product of these teams beating each other or maybe just not playing up to their potential yet? I think we're seeing some of these teams not play up to their potential. I mean, I certainly don't think the Red Sox are anywhere near their potential right now. 17-17, four runs in the red. I thought they were a much stronger team coming in, and they haven't really had any calamities before them.

Just some minor bumps and bruises like Shane Victorino starting the year on the DL or something like that. Clay Buchholz isn't up to snuff, but Buchholz only gave them less than half a season of work last year, so that seemed like something they could surmount too. There's a lot of small sample weirdness lurking between these fairly level records. Less so here than when I was looking at the Marlins earlier today, or yesterday now, in the parlance of this podcast. Because most of these teams are within a couple games of 500, both at home and on the road. or within a couple games of 500, both at home and on the road.

I don't have a clear enough idea in my head of who's played who yet all over the place, but I do know all these teams have had some dings here and there. I'm not a huge believer that the Blue Jays are going to stick around in this. They're 17-17 right now. They just dropped a nine-run seventh inning on the Phillies as we're speaking here. But they're a team whose pitching really hasn't gelled as expected. Brandon Morrow hitting the DL again with an injury and that blockbuster from last year really not paying off yet. Yeah, I wanted to ask you about the blue

jays because they have hit they've gotten some some really good offensive performances from a few people but but the pitching has been pretty pretty ugly which is not anything new for them it's sort of what we saw last year and and now they've got that gaping second base hole, which is like the definition of your vortex of suck. Yeah, indeed. I mean, as far as the pitching goes, R.A. Dickey's ERA is about five again. Brandon Morrow was approaching six before he went on the DL. Dustin McGowan has been struggling. Mark Burley's been great, and he was great tonight.

Mark Burley's been great, and he was great tonight, but not getting a lot of solidity across the rotation. And as for the lineup, Ryan Goins wasn't cutting it, but Jose Reyes is below the Mendoza line too. Colby Rasmus is kind of struggling a bit, although more of a lopsided low-on-base, high-slutting percentage way than anything else. This is a team that kind of stood still over the winter. Their only real addition was DeAndre Navarro, but he's shored up the offense at catcher,

and Melky Cabrera has come back hitting like he was before he was suspended in 2012. So they're not really struggling to score runs, like you said. And is this a team that if their struggles continue it seems like they would be pretty set up to be a seller this this trade deadline they've got a bunch of veterans so i mean do you think a bunch of teams will come calling for those guys and will they be willing to deal them and if so does that mean that this whole sort of blue jays competitive experiment is over? Is it a failure?

Is it time to reset already? You know, I really just can't get a good sense of what they think they're going to do. I mean, you know, with like all the Alex Anthopoulos machinations of, you know, grabbing these guys off the waiver wire and things like that, I don't think they tear it down that quickly. I don't think they have to sell off everything, but I could see them maybe considering trading Dickey and Burley, for example, if the returns are right. But I have a hard time seeing them say say you're trading off that and when incarnati a and pose a petite stick eyes who have uh... but you were on good

contracts and still very productive hitters you know my sense is that they still got uh... you know some up-and-coming stuff in the farm system that this is this isn't the end of uh... the window for them but you know they're they're a tough one to predict. So far, this has been kind of a gloomy conversation. It seems like we're kind of collectively down on everybody. Maybe that's just because we're moving up the standings, but the standings are so lumped together. There's basically nothing really separating

first and last place. These guys have all basically been playing each other for the last month. I mean, it's been an intra-division heavy schedule thus far. How confident are you that we're not just seeing like five good teams that have been beating each other up? And that's why they all are at around 500 and sort of so-so. Yeah, I think that's certainly possible. You know, I mean, the AL East is kind of the black and blue division. These teams do beat up on each other,

and we've seen that this could be a highly competitive division. I guess we'll have to wait and see. It's tough to get a sense of teams when they are just kind of beating up on each other, though. You don't have that much outside data to go on. Oh, they lost that three-game road trip here or whatever. If there's a team that maybe has had good news so far, maybe it's the Yankees, who a lot of people were sort of down on.

I think, I don't know, maybe the consensus was that they were, even after signing all of the free agents this winter, they were maybe set up to be about what they were last year. Sort of a mid-80s team with maybe more upside, but also a ton of downside with the injury risk that they carry because they're so old. And so far, at least, that hasn't spiraled out of control for them the way that it did last year. Have you taken any positives from what has happened so far? Yeah, there's some big positives there. I think number one, Mark Teixeira coming back and hitting for power. That four home runs in five games stretch

and just been swinging the bat very well. Jacoby Ellsbury has adapted very well. We've seen flashes of it from Carlos Beltranran but he's been in a bit of a slump uh... likewise for for brian mccann but uh... you know that guy guys like brian robertson and and uh... yet ever so our day at how their own in the infield uh... kelly johnson as well i mean that's the other not

it's not pretty uh... but it's but it's enough to get them to the trade deadline trade deadline before maybe adding an extra piece and taking some of the pressure off of some of those guys. On the other hand, though, the really big blow was losing Yvonne Nova. Between that and CeCe Sabathia continuing to pitch poorly, well below his standard. I think those are the things that I would be worried about in them living up to my expectations. But the bullpen has come together reasonably well, so I think there's some reason for optimism there. You just tweeted that Derek Jeter is not dead yet,

although it looked like he might be. Well, yeah, the people were shoveling dirt on him this week and and you know his performance hasn't really been there yet but he's what i think he's uh off to a four for eight start in anaheim with with his first home run of the year a double a couple nights ago um you know it's like he's he's one good week away from his stats having some you know some some blood in them uh as opposed to the power of death and and uh you know let's let's not forget that this guy missed it most missed most of last year so you know for him to take a month to really find himself it shouldn't be all that surprising you know i think go on if yeah sorry if if he if he is dead though if this doesn't actually

turn into something useful and the yankees stay where they are near the top of the division, how do you sort of see it playing out? I mean, is there an exit strategy for anybody involved in it? Well, I think you probably cut back on Jeter's playing time, especially when you've got a ground ball pitcher on the mound because you've got Brendan Ryan at your disposal. I think that's where it starts, you know, is cutting back on Jeter's defense so you don't take the hit there. You know, you're not going to get a hell of a lot less offense out of Brendan Ryan, although you will get a bit.

Beyond that, I don't know. I mean, I think before that has to happen, though, I think there's going to come a point where Joe Girardi will drop Jeter in the lineup, you know, seventh or eighth, not in an effort to humiliate him, but just to sort of, you know, take that extra bat away from him and maybe a bit of pressure off of him. But we saw that happen with Jorge Posada a few years ago, and it didn't end well. So, you know, I don't know. It's a very tight rope. He's got to walk there with the egos and stuff like that. Although I don't think Jeter's going to be throwing any kind of hissy fits the way that Posada did, if it does come to that. And tied with the Yankees, it looks like by the end of the night will be the Orioles.

They've gotten a great start from Nelson Cruz, of course. They've gotten a great start from Matt Wieters, who looks like his health scare, his elbow scare, is not as scary as we thought it was. Are they a serious contender here? Did we underestimate them? What do you see from them? You know, there's definitely some things I like about them. I saw earlier tonight Jonathan Scope hit a home run. He's a guy I like a lot. You know, Chris Davis hasn't produced much and is on the disabled list as we speak, but, you know, I've got to figure he's going to come back and be, if not the 53 homer guy from last year, then give them a bit of a

boost. Wieters really dodged a bullet uh you know the concern about the tommy john surgery uh i think was was kind of soft pedal i looked at you know at si.com i looked at the history of catchers who have undergone tommy john surgery and it is a brutal list i mean the only ones who've come back to play in the major leagues uh with any significant playing time, or Taylor Teagarden and John Baker. Both of those guys were just above the Mendoza line. So I don't think Wieters is going to keep hitting like he does.

He may have to spend a fair amount of time at DH, but they ought to be glad they've got him at all because they could really lose a big bat there. But there's a lot to like there. I mean, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, those guys have traditionally been pretty good. Cruz seems to be a great fit for that ballpark. You know, J.J. Hardy's got his merits. The pitching staff is a little bit more of a question mark. But, you know, over the last two years, Bud Show Walter's done a really good job of kind

of playing the hot hands, mixing and matching with guys from the minor leagues and whoever's doing the best at the major league level with really few constants. They've got to get Ubaldo Jimenez ironed out, though, if they're going to go anywhere. He's got an ERA of a five. That's not what they signed up for, although they certainly had to know it was a possibility. And how do you see all this playing out then? Is the fact that we haven't really said anything bad about the Red Sox, does that mean that

they are the presumptive favorites now? To me, they've always been the favorites. I think that they've got the most depth, certainly the most in the minor league system that can help them, you know, and they've got parts to move here. I mean, if they have to, they can shuffle some guys around. I think they're a little bit worried about, you know, from their standpoint about what they could be getting out of Clay Buchholz the rest of the way. But like I said, he wasn't a guy who threw 200 innings for them last year. So they could think about some spot starts for Chris Capuano or Brandon Workman or whoever gets them to the trade deadline.

Mike Karp maybe will throw some more innings. I don't know. But everything there seems generally in working order. Just maybe it needs a little bit more oil than it usually does. But I don't see much in the way of catastrophes there. So if not the AL East, what is the division with the best hope for team entropy? hope for team entropy? Boy, you know,

that's a good question. I mean, maybe the AL Central. I mean, that one's kind of upside down besides the Tigers from where it was last year with the Indians on the bottom. But the AL West, I mean, obviously the Astros aren't going to be in it, but suddenly the Mariners are a game above 500

and the Angels came into today at 500, so there's only two and a half games separating the top four teams there, so maybe there's some entropy there. I don't think that's going to hold in the NL East, where it's only three games

top to bottom. I don't see the Mets or the Phillies staying with it. For as hot as the Marlins start has been, I don't see the Mets or the Phillies staying with it. For as hot as the Marlins start has been, I don't really see them there either. I guess if I had to vote right now, it would be the AL West is probably the best alternative for some serious team entropy. For as many years as they've been playing baseball and as many divisions and as many races as there are, it feels like entropy is underrepresented in baseball's history. It feels like there's

some malignant force that keeps the truly astounding ties from happening. Do either of you know if there's been any attempt to discern whether there are more or fewer ties than there should be in history?

You know, I don't know. That probably goes back to, like, I'm sure we tried something like that for the pennant race book, which came out in 2007. It ain't over till it's over. You know, that had more to do with the concept of volatility and how often the leads change. I mean, I feel like we get, it feels like we've gotten more play-in games recently, you know, game 163, even before

the wildcard happened. I mean, on a, you know, statistical level, that has to count for something. We had, you know, only, whatever, only a few in the first, you know, second half of the 20th century. And we've already had more, you know, in the 21st century and part of that's the addition of the wild card, but it seems like even beyond that, we, you know, we had a run there where we were getting like one a year for a while. I think what's to me, what's, you know, I, I, I hold out hope that we can see, you know, more races like the NL in 1959, which I wrote about for that pen and race book,

where you had three teams that went down to the final two days of the season in the Giants, Braves, and the Dodgers. Those teams, three teams fighting for one spot. So I don't know if we'll get that lucky. But last year we had a fair bit of it with the play-in game and then the newfangled wild card game. Back in 2011 we had that great game 162 night when all hell broke loose. I think we've been comparatively blessed on the interview front. I have no complaints.

Ben's got me greedy. To me, it doesn't even start to count as a tie unless there are three teams. It's not sex unless it's an orgy. All right. Well, thanks, Jay. You can follow Jay at... You're giving me the hook now that I've lost.

Explicit tag, Jess. I have 443 episodes, but now we're explicit. We actually got this far without even invoking this explicit tag. I'm sort of surprised. And this on a day that I got lectured for swearing on Twitter by some reader. Yes, I saw that. Well, you didn't get to hear any of Jay's swearing today, but if you want to see some of it, you should follow him on Twitter,

where he defiantly continues swearing, even though someone complained about it today. At Jay Jaffe, Jay underscore Jaffe, and read all of his MLB coverage at Sports Illustrated, at the Strike Zone site, mlb.si.com. Thanks, Jay. All right. Thanks a lot.

All right. Please support our sponsor, Baseball Reference. Go to baseballreference.com, subscribe to the Play Index, use the coupon code BP to get the discounted price of $30 on a one-year subscription, and we will be back with a new show tomorrow. What's your take on sour beers, Jay? Not a fan. Not much of a fan. I'm a pretty, I got a pretty wide palate when it comes to beers.

I like the IPAs. I like the dark stuff, too. But I don't go anywhere, get anywhere with the saisons and the sour stuff. It's all anybody talks about in Northern California. I know. It's weird. It's like, yeah, it doesn't move me. I can, you know.

It's hippie shit, you know. Hippies love that bacteria shit. I guess so. I guess so. It's like having yogurt in your diet. It's just something that Northern Californians love. Right. Fair enough.