Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 48: What We Would Pay James Loney/Are the Dodgers Trying Too Hard?

Episode Date: September 24, 2012

Ben and Sam size up this winter’s free-agent first basemen and estimate how much money James Loney will make, then talk about whether the Dodgers’ pursuit of a playoff spot is leading to dangerous decisions.

Good morning and welcome to episode 48 of Effectively Wild, the Baseball Prospectus daily podcast in New York, New York. I am Ben Lindberg and in Long Beach, California, he is Sam Miller. It is our first show of the fall and those crickets you hear are not long for this world. So this is casting kind of a morbid Paul over this whole episode. Is that what happens? Do they just die? I assume they migrated. Hmm.

I mean, I suppose. I assume they die. Yeah. Crickets don't hibernate, I don't think. Do they migrate? I'm sure they migrate. I just don't. I mean, you're probably correct that these specific crickets are not long for this world because...

You'd think they would have started migrating already. I wouldn't think that. Oh, Ben, you don't realize how hot it is. Yeah, I guess that's true. Every single day it is. So let's talk about the weather and then we'll talk about my fantasy team and then we'll call it a night. Yeah, and the migratory habits of crickets. Crickets live for about a month from egg to death. Oh, wow. So the crickets that we were hearing on episode...

We have actually... This is a new generation. Multiple generations of crickets. This is a... The crickets have passed on the story of Bryce Harper first being caught and then struggling. It's like an oral history through their species. The circle of life in Sam Miller's garage.

Okay, so what do you want to talk about other than crickets? The Dodgers. And I want to talk about a former Dodger, James Loney. Oh, okay. Why don't you go first okay um so this is more of an off-season topic than a timely pennant race topic but uh i am interested in what is going to happen to james looney this off-season um every year there are some interesting free agent cases who play at a position where maybe there isn't a whole lot of talent available that winter, which seems to be the case at first base this offseason.

And so the rumors or the news has already started about James Loney and what will happen to him. So I read something yesterday by Nick Caffardo of the Boston Globe, who said that the Red Sox are considering resigning James Loney, which of course could mean that they considered it and dismissed the idea, but that he is receptive to coming back. And he said that Loney may draw attention elsewhere in a sparse first base market, and he thinks the Rays might possibly be a destination for him. So Loney is a guy who was, of course, a top prospect. He was a Baseball America top 100 guy for four years

running. And I don't know if he has any of that top prospect or are remaining for anyone at this point but um i mean when when tom warner the the red sox chairman after they traded for him in the uh the big trade this august he said it brings us a player in james looney who was untouchable a couple of years ago which of course you can say about many players. It's also a very liberal usage of the word couple. Right, yes. So James Loney is hitting 241, 267, 301 as a Red Sox. I'm sure it's just transitioning into a new league.

or Red Sox. I'm sure it's just transitioning into a new league. Many pitchers. Except that he hit 254-302-344 for the Dodgers this year and slightly worse than that, or slightly better than that, I guess, last year, but not. Considerably better than that, but not considerably good. No. And so the first base market this winter looks like Casey Kochman,

who's basically loany but older. Carlos Pena, who looks about done. Lyle Overbay, who has been about done for a while now. Isn't Lyle Overbay having a pretty good year? Look that up. Baseball reference. And then there's Lance Berkman, who after his latest surgery, it sounds like will either retire or be a DH somewhere.

Carlos Lee, who is not going to excite anyone. And then I guess you could maybe call Mike Napoli a first baseman. Other than that, there's not a whole lot out there. Well, there's Mark Trumbo as well. Yes. I mean, not as a free agent, but as a potentially available player. Overbay has hit 264, 333, 400 this year. I take it back.

Pretty Overbay-ish. So Loney at least is younger than those other guys I named, and because he's younger is not as far removed from being considered a good player. Do you think that there will be interest in James Loney? Do you think the Red Sox will have any of it? And would you care to predict a contract for James Loney? A few things. First of all, on June 23rd, Lyle Overbay was hitting 361, 440, 569,

which shows you how often I look at the internet. Once every three months. Second of all, it makes me sad, heartbroken, in fact, that you did not list Russell Branion in that list of first basemen. And thirdly, you actually stole my thunder because I was going to ask you once you started talking about James Loney, why we are having this conversation about James Loney and not Casey Cotchman. Because they are, as you noted, are, as you noted, they are very, very, very similar. And I don't think anybody has any illusions about Casey Kotchman.

And at this point, I don't think anybody has any illusions about James Loney either. I imagine... Go ahead. Before this season, I guess, the Indians had an illusion about Casey Kotchman, right? What are they paying him? A million and a half? Three million. Goodness gracious. But not so much what they're paying him as the role they envisioned for him,

starting for Spaceman. Yeah, well, hang on. Signed February 3rd, so, you know, kind of like, oh, look, he's still around kind of a thing, right? Yes. And so that's telling. I mean, they of the Russell Brannion move the previous year, which was kind of identical. And, yeah, I don't know.

I mean, I imagine that James Loney gets a job next year. Starting job? Starting job. And I haven't really looked at the first base market. I've looked at who's available, but not who needs a first baseman. Yeah, well, that's the thing about... There's no one available. Maybe it's because everyone has a first baseman.

Yeah, I think that's generally what happens. I mean, have we noticed a big, I mean, I know that the top first baseman this year tended to have down years, but has anybody written the trend piece about the disappearance of first baseman? I have almost written it several times. Have you really? It's written for an article topic, but I have not written it. I don't know. Maybe all the first basemen are becoming THs

at younger ages now or something like that. I'm trying to think of where he would start. I don't know. I would guess not. I don't know. Yeah, okay. Yeah, sure. James Loney will start. James Loney will get the Casey Cotchman deal

and he will start. And he'll have like a 94 OPS+. Also written about by Nick Cofardo of the Boston Globe, Mike Karp is starting to appear on a few teams' wish lists. I don't know whether Nick Cofardo has a soft spot for Spacemen who are having terrible years or what it is. I'd definitely rather have Karp than Loney. Yeah, I guess I would too.

in almost 200 plate appearances for Seattle, and hit.223,.286,.324 in another 150 plate appearances in Tacoma. Are the A's by chance still sitting on like 14 quad eight first basemen? Because this might have been their plan all along. You know, when I was a kid, I had this idea that I was going to corner the market on Kevin Mitchell 1989 Topps cards. And this was like 1991 or 92, so there was no interest in Kevin Mitchell 1989 Topps cards. You could get them from your friends for like nothing. You could just ask or steal them.

And so I was going to go around all the card shops in the country, collect them before anybody noticed what was going on, and then I was going to somehow put out a press release saying, hey, where did all the 1989 Kevin Mitchell Tops cards go? When people realized how rare they were, they would be worth like a million dollars. And then I would strike. Wow. You had such an entrepreneurial spirit.

I got like seven or eight. So if anybody wants one. You still have them? I'm selling them for 40 bucks. If anybody wants one. You still have them? I'm selling them for $40. Well, Nick Cofardo reports that Kevin Mitchell is topping several teams' wish lists.

Kevin Mitchell. I would rather have him than James Loney. Yeah, maybe so. Kevin Mitchell is 50. So Roger Clemens' age, maybe they will both make a comeback next year. Okay, so James will only one year then, we're saying, starting job, and he will disappoint whichever team signs him. Yeah.

I mean, it's hard to predict. Okay. Well, that's our prediction. That is our prediction. Are we resolved is this yes we agree on this i'll just give him a casey kachman contract i guess one year three million and he'll sign in february and he'll let can i ask a better question yeah where will casey kachman will casey kachman get another uh i would think he'd have to settle for some kind of spring training invite and hope for the best at this point. He's having a better year than James Loney.

Yeah, but... And he had a significantly better year in 2011 than James Loney, and he's a better defender than James Loney. So if you're punting the bat, you might as well at least get the glove. I guess that's true. He's only one year older. I don't know. I mean, I don't think anyone is really buying his 2011,

except maybe the Indians, and even they weren't really buying it. I mean, he, yeah, I don't know. I guess he gets another job somewhere but maybe he and james looney drive up drive sort of bidding war for or the opposite they drive down yes but then we'll undercut the other they um yeah well i don't know looney was the uh 19th overall pick in 2002 but kotchman was the 13th overall pick. So if you're just going by upside, Kochman is. Kochman was also on the Baseball America Top 100 four years in a row.

And like 11th or something? Oh, sixth. Wow. Wow. Yeah, he was he was hot. Oh, yeah, you're right. Six. I'm looking up Loney real quick. Loney was four years in a row but never higher than 34. So this is really weird. Why is it then? And I think, if I'm not mistaken, I mean, granted, this was many years ago, but I think that Kochman had the better single season of either of them.

Well, I don't know, maybe not. But, yeah, 2007 arguably was better than anything looney ever did and 2011 was arguably better than anything looney ever did so we just keep coming back to the fact that a guy that i don't think anything of at all well is nonetheless better than james looney 2007 uh was looneyan, his sophomore year, and his 375 plate appearances, he hit.331,.381,.538. So that, coming as early in his career as it did, he was 23 years old. I think maybe that has contributed to the idea that he is better than Casey Kochman. Yeah, maybe.

Kochman had, if we're only doing partial seasons, though, Kochman had a pretty huge 22-year-old season. I mean, not huge, huge, huge, but almost as good as Loney's, and he was only 22. Well, this has been riveting. Everyone was, I mean, when it's late September, your thoughts turn to Loney and Kochman. I'm changing my topic. My topic is Casey Kochman. Too late. You already called the Dodgers.

My topic is Casey Kochman. Too late. You already called the Dodgers. Well, I actually was going to – a week ago I was going to have a topic be do the Dodgers already regret the big trade? And about four hours before we recorded, Grant Frisbee wrote a story with the headline, do the Dodgers already regret the big trade? That's great. So I waited a while for a new twist. And so here's my new twist um uh i want to know if you think the

dodgers want it too bad if they are desperate if they are a team on tilt and if they are doing stupid things now for a extremely slim chance that they will get into a coin flip game um the first of these perhaps irrational things being um on half a billion dollars or whatever in contracts that presumably they could have gotten a lot of in the offseason if they'd still desperately wanted Carl Crawford but more recently most recently and perhaps most significantly is starting Clayton Kershaw tonight, uh, last night, depending on when you're listening to this, um, uh, Kershaw, of course, they, there was thoughts that he was going to be shut down for the season, that he was going to have to have surgery, that he was going to miss the start of next year. And with a 5% playoff odds, um, and that's 5% of, uh, being in

the play in game, they are already alluded from the the one. The Dodgers let him pitch tonight. He was optimistically, you might say, rusty. Pessimistically, you might say, off. He walked a season high. Five batters. He also struck out five and allowed one run. But, yes, he labored. Yeah, five hits.

allowed one run but yes he he labored yeah five five hits yeah anyway um so his uh his hip doctor said that he could pitch without uh doing further damage but i think that that probably is a red herring uh you don't want to pitch your pitching in pain because that tends to lead to um him making sort of allowances elsewhere in his body that can cause problems. And the Dodgers clearly did care about whether he was in pain. I'm going to quote, I believe it's the LA Times. Mattingly said, Ned Colletti spoke with Kershaw to be assured the pitcher was, quote, being 100% honest with us. He promised if he feels anything, he'll stop and not throw another pitch, said Mattingly. The last thing I want to be involved with is pitching Clayton Kershaw hurt.

If I knew something that he shouldn't pitch, I couldn't sit here for that. And I think that's very, I mean, does anyone really believe that if he says he's not in pain that he's necessarily telling the truth? I mean, guys ruin their careers to pitch in big games. pitch in big games. And the idea that once he goes out to the mound and throws his first pitch, that he's going to raise his hand and say he's in pain becomes even less likely. So I don't know. I mean, I have a hard time. I'm not saying that Kershaw is in pain or was in pain tonight or is hurt. But I don't know that I would trust him. I don't know that this is the shot I would have taken at this stage in the season. I probably would have wanted to wait five more days,

and if I needed Kershaw and he seemed okay in five days, maybe I would throw him out there. But to me, this seems like a team that is extremely desperate, that perhaps has been first was too confident in their ability to make the playoffs and now is too confident in their ability to perform a miracle. And I just wonder if you agree. Yeah, generally I do. I think there's probably a bigger payoff for the Dodgers in making the playoffs than maybe for most teams

in that they went through the whole Frank McCourt era, and I think the new ownership would really, really like to separate themselves from that era and turn the page, so to speak, by making the playoffs, and it would be, I don't know if you could say it's a feel-good story when the Dodgers bring in hundreds of millions of dollars to make the playoffs. But if they did make the playoffs, it would be sort of a healing of the fan base thing. And of course, just the extra revenue that you get from making the playoffs would come in handy when they are paying hundreds of millions of dollars to those players next year and beyond. So I can certainly see what the incentive is.

But you need to make the playoffs next year too. I mean, they're almost certainly not going to make it this year. And if they do anything that jeopardizes next year, which you could argue that they have, but maybe you could argue that they haven't just in terms of taking on some of the contracts that they took on rather than trying to upgrade during the offseason when there are more options. They might be putting that at risk. And certainly if Clayton Kershaw, I don't know,

was favoring his hip and his head fell off or something like that, that would hurt their odds next year as well. Yeah. Well, I guess the flags went up with the Puig signing where they threw a ton of money at him. And the evaluators who had seen him or who knew his reputation were shocked at the amount of money they had spent. And at least seemed to think that they had spent much more than they had to. And now it even looks like there really isn't a spot open for him. Although he is still a ways away, they've kind of filled up the outfield for now. So that was kind of the first indication

that maybe they were a little too committed to winning or willing to spend inefficiently in service of winning. So yes, I think maybe they have been a little desperate and trying too hard. But I guess I'm sympathetic seeing as where they are coming from and what they're trying to distance themselves from, but that probably doesn't justify making questionable decisions. Yeah. And we should, of course, put out a huge disclaimer that we have no idea what the conversations with Kershaw and his trainers and doctors are, Kershaw and his team. We don't know anything at all about this situation. And I certainly would not present ourselves as having the full story here or anything.

It's just sort of a sense of, you know, like kind of confusion, watching this team a little bit and seeing how much they're putting into this year rather than building. That's what I guess it seems like. It seems like they are um not in a mode where they're trying to build a five-year dynasty it really seems like they are uh trying to just win tonight's game and then worry about tomorrow later and maybe that's good maybe it's bad I don't know it's not the way that I'd normally like to see it no I guess not but if you're the

Dodgers and you have a ton of money uh and you have maybe a very large fan base that is waiting to support your team again, I can understand why they could spend their way to contention more so than some other team. Yeah. All right. So several crickets have expired, no doubt, while we were talking about James Loney and Casey Kochman, which is not the way you want to go. But thank you for listening. And we will be back on Tuesday.